<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20230208140212/63e3a03c9c7e80680e0d7029jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000"/><figcaption>Photo: SUMAN NEPALI</figcaption></figure>As Nepal prepared to mark National Earthquake Safety Day on 16 January to commemorate the 8.3 magnitude disaster that hit Kathmandu in 1934, the country went into mourning for <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/pokhara-bound-flight-crashes-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">the air crash in Pokhara</a>.There were 72 people on board and there are likely no survivors. This was the worst disaster in <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/60-years-of-living-dangerously/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Nepal’s domestic aviation</a>, and the highest number of casualties after two crashes of international flights one-after-another in Kathmandu in 1992.The message from these tragedies is that Nepal is a <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/disasters-in-nepal-come-in-waves/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">disaster-prone country</a> — either human induced or natural. But even though earthquakes, landslides or floods may be ‘natural phenomena’ the disasters are more destructive because of manmade causes.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20230208140212/63e3a0409c7e80680e0d702apng.png" alt="" width="640" height="592">Social media posts have condemned the coalition government’s decision to mark the crash with a day off. Most said it should have been taken as a day of reckoning about preventing and being prepared for all kinds of disasters.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20230208140212/63e3a0449c7e80680e0d702bjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2048" height="1365"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>The <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/page/preparing-for-the-next-big-earthquake-in-nepal" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">1934 earthquake</a> was epicentre in eastern Nepal, and killed at least 16,000 people in Nepal and India. Historical records show that a temblor of that magnitude hits Nepal at least once every 100 years, while smaller quakes are more frequent.“2015 was not a mega earthquake, it is still due,” warns Surya Narayan Shrestha, Executive Director of the National Society for Earthquake Technology (NSET).He adds that there is a <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/mind-the-gap/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">large seismic gap in western Nepal</a> where there has not been a big earthquake since 1505, meaning that so much tectonic energy has accumulated that the region is overdue for a disaster of more than 8 magnitude.The Indian Plate is converging towards the Eurasian Plate at an average rate of 25mm a year, which is what makes Nepal and the region an active seismic zone.“We have been lucky that we haven’t had a mega-quake yet in <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/past-disasters-foretold/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">the seismic gap</a> between Pokhara all the way to Dadeldhura but this also means we could witness the biggest one yet given the stress accumulated,” says Anil Pokhrel, Chief Executive of the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority (NDRRMA).“In fact, it will be catastrophic,” Pokhrel earns. “The 1505 earthquake killed one-third of Nepal’s population even back then.”<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20230208140212/63e3a0479c7e80680e0d702cjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1400" height="516"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>An 8M+ earthquake in faraway <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/epicentre-of-two-disasters-in-west-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">western Nepal</a> will not spare Kathmandu either, and half of Nepal’s population will be directly affected. Experts estimate that there will be more than 100,000 casualties and over 1.5 million buildings will collapse across the country. Large parts of northern India will also be hit“This is the level of disaster the whole country needs to be prepared for, not just western Nepal,” warns NSET’s Shrestha.There is therefore no time to waste <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/concrete-lessons-of-2015/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">reinforcing infrastructure</a>, but that is a tall order since a survey showed that two-thirds of all the buildings in Nepal will collapse in a major earthquake.The 7.8M quake in 2015 was a warning, and it has had some effect in increasing preparedness. In fact, Nepal’s record of reconstruction is noted as a success given the scale of destruction in the aftermath. But similar levels of preparedness is <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/guest-editorial/guest-editorial-better-late-than-never,891" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">needed now for the Next Big One</a>.There is also a general <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/false-sense-of-security-about-strength-of-reinforced-concrete-structures,2240" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">misconception that concrete buildings are safer</a> because they survived the 2015 earthquake. But experts say if the shaking had lasted just a few seconds longer and if the intensity of the tremor was a bit higher, most reinforced concrete buildings in Kathmandu would have also collapsed.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20230208140212/63e3a04a9c7e80680e0d702djpeg.jpg" alt="" width="500" height="750"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20230208140212/63e3a04d9c7e80680e0d702ejpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1000" height="1500"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20230208140212/63e3a0509c7e80680e0d702fjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="500" height="750">Cement buildings are safer only when they do not flout building standards. Otherwise they are death traps because Nepal just does not have enough rescue equipment and skills required for <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/Search-locate-%20rescue-in-collapsed-concrete-houses,3676" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">search and rescue from concrete structures</a>.“Concrete is among the most complex of construction materials and requires stringent quality control,” says Anil Pokhrel. “The quality of some of these do not meet quality standards.”Substandard cement means weak concrete, not just in urban centres but across Nepal as cement construction spreads to even remote parts of the country due to road expansion.Most recently, the 8 November 2022 6.6M <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/earthquake-vacates-villages-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">earthquake in Doti</a> killed 6 people while nearly 15,000 houses and 215 public buildings were damaged in four districts in the far west. A post-mortem of the disaster found that not even 5% of buildings in the affected areas followed even the most basic building codes.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20230208140212/63e3a0539c7e80680e0d7030jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="1600"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>This means very low awareness among the public as well as municipal authorities about <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/headline/Ruined-future,3471" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">enforcing building codes</a>. This points to an urgent need to capacitate engineers to design earthquake resistant structures, and masons who can build them accordingly. But most important is monitoring building compliance.“Knowledge alone is not enough to save lives, we need people to change their attitude and practice,” says Shrestha. “As it is, we have already forgotten the destruction post-2015 earthquake and people are now building back the way they used to. People must invest a bit more to ensure that their buildings are safe while the government can provide technical expertise.”<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20230208140212/63e3a0579c7e80680e0d7031jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="427"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20230208140212/63e3a05a9c7e80680e0d7032jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="427">Engineers say it costs only 10% more to make a traditional building earthquake resistant. This means the building will not suffer major damage in moderate tremors, and even if it collapses with bigger shaking it gives people time to escape. Even if 100% earthquake proof buildings were possible to make, they would be too expensive.For existing buildings, however, there is an option of retrofitting them, but should not cost more than one-third of what a new building does.<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/page/not-out-of-danger-the-big-one" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Retrofitting can be a lifesaver</a>. In the 2015 earthquakes, none of the school buildings in and around Kathmandu Valley retrofitted by the NSET suffered any damage, and in fact served as shelters in the aftermath.As it is, green and open spaces which acted as shelters from earthquakes in the past are being traded for residential and commercial buildings across cities. But NSET with support of various municipalities and Kathmandu Valley Development Authority has recently mapped 1,000 open spaces, most of them in Kathmandu Valley which can be viewed at <a href="http://bipadportal.gov.np" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">bipadportal.gov.np</a>.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20230208140212/63e3a05c9c7e80680e0d7033jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="345"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Close to 8,000 schools and 30,000 classrooms were damaged or destroyed in 2015. The fact that it struck on a Saturday saved the lives of thousands of students which should be taken as a sign to reinforce school buildings all over Nepal with topmost priority.“If the 2015 earthquake had happened on any other day than Saturday, we estimate that at least 30,000 students could have been killed,” says Shrestha.NSET has managed to retrofit 2,000 schools across Nepal in a joint collaboration with the government, but there are 32,000 government schools in Nepal with 80,000 school buildings between them. More than half of them are vulnerable to future quakes.It is not only the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/lessons-not-learned-from-2015/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">school infrastructure</a> that needs to be reinforced, but their curriculum has to be designed in such a way that students and teachers alike know the dangers and how to protect themselves. The schools need to be prepared at all times with frequent emergency drills and training about earthquake safety.While <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/lessons-still-not-learnt/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">preparedness is the key</a> to reducing the damage, efficient response in the aftermath can save the most lives in the ‘golden hour’. With the spread of concrete buildings, Nepal needs to immediately invest in equipment for collapsed structure search and rescue like snake-eye and robo-worm cameras, acoustic, thermal and motion sensors to detect human life under the rubble.Another urgent measure is to plan stockpiling of immediate digging and relief material for which the government is building provincial as well as district warehouses, many of which are under construction.A recent study undertaken by NDRRMA titled ‘Emergency Preparedness and Response Assessment 2022-2030’ found that Nepal needs nearly $200 million in the next seven years to prepare for future disasters like the one projected for western Nepal.“Given the sheer scale of the overdue earthquake in the west, we need to invest a lot more in disaster preparedness, from constructing stronger structures and retrofitting our homes, schools and hospitals to developing a better response mechanism,” says Anil Pokhrel.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20230208140212/63e3a0609c7e80680e0d7034jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="829">With the understanding that financing <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/disastrous-management-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">disaster risk reduction</a> is more effective and economical than a post-disaster response like search, rescue, relief, rehabilitation, reconstruction and recovery, the government has developed the Nepal Disaster Risk Financing Strategy so the state plans to provide insurance for all the public and private buildings in an event of a major earthquake.NSET’s Surya Narayan Shrestha agrees: “Given how disaster-prone we know Nepal is, we must seriously put our efforts and money into reducing the risks.”

Sonia Awale

original

674x448

610x380

500x500

400x266

400x240

400x203

301x200

1250x600

1084x550

In a disastrous state

The monsoon has got bad press because Nepal’s tourism operators actively told visitors to avoid <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/managing-the-monsoon?%2F">the rainy season</a>. It is time to change that. The reason can be found right here in the vast alpine meadows of Central Nepal where this time of year you can walk on velvet grass of pastures abloom with delicate pink, red and yellow flowers as the mist rolls up the valley. There is no sound except the hum of bumble bees. &nbsp;&nbsp; There are dozens of places across high Nepal called Chaurikharka, which means yak pasture. But this particular Chaurikharka in Rukum East located at an altitude of 4,000m stands out for its serene beauty, rustic charm and bucolic setting. There is just the occasional chime of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/when-yaks-go-so-does-culture">yak bells</a> in the distance, and the sharp whistle of herders corralling sheep. &nbsp;&nbsp; The grass shoots are so fragile that one hesitates to step on them, the rounded ridges appear and quickly vanish in waves of mist. With the<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/before-the-next-monsoon"> arrival of monsoon</a>, these meadows are a soothing shade of green dotted with millions of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/review/the-anatomy-of-a-flower?%2F=">multi-coloured flowers</a>. Until very recently, it took a week or so to hike up to places like Chaurikharka, but with the expansion of the road network even to these far-flung mountains in the lap of Dhaulagiri, they are much more accessible. It is just a three-hour uphill from the Mid-Hill Highway on the border between Baglung and Rukum East.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250802130828_a0b06b494d751b2144ffbbf10894ea64b29e8aed844bc8c66171783abfaf4e16.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20250802130828_a0b06b494d751b2144ffbbf10894ea64b29e8aed844bc8c66171783abfaf4e16" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1365" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon"> </figure>  Purists would say that such easy access devalues the sanctity of these remote high meadows, but it also means more people will be moved to treasure the experience, appreciate <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/natures-fragile-gift-to-nepal">the value of nature </a>so they can take steps to protect it.&nbsp; To be sure, the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/deadly-monsoon-in-nepal-turns-deadlier">monsoon season can be challenging for road travel</a>. The roads are rough even at the best of times, and in the monsoon they become muddy and treacherous, often blocked by<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/monsoon-deluge-in-nepal"> landslides</a>. But that could be precisely the kind of adventure that the more intrepid visitors crave. Improved road connectivity has already made Chaurikharka and places like Badimallika &nbsp;and other sacred lakes in the mountains of western Nepal popular with domestic tourists. What is driving this traffic is the urge to go to exotic new places and share videos and selfies on social media. Several of Nepal’s travel vloggers have visited Chaurikharka and popularised the place, enticing followers on TikTok or YouTube to retrace their footsteps. But even as they become more popular, these fragile and once-remote places should be protected from over-tourism.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110736_f97110b7cdc3e7f80d5877690948fc9f4c95a09c583deb23b07355491e6c5446.jpg" data-media-id="editor_8" data-image-id="20250731110736_f97110b7cdc3e7f80d5877690948fc9f4c95a09c583deb23b07355491e6c5446" data-rendition-name="original" width="1083" height="699" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon NT"> </figure>  <h2>INCREASING FOOTFALL</h2> Chaurikharka is located in Bhume Rural Municipality of East Rukum, near the scenic valley of Dhorpatan in Baglung district. Even in the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/monsoon-culture">middle of the monsoon</a>, there is a steady stream of Nepali hikers trooping to these high pastures – especially during festival days like Saune Sankranti which this year was on 17 July and actually marks the auspicious beginning of the monsoon here. “This year the rains have not been as heavy and there have been some clear mornings when we could see everything from Dhaulagiri to Machapuchre,” says Khageswar Bhandari, who trekked up here from the road. “The flowers, the greenery and the snowy mountain views make this an incredibly unique place.”&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250802130824_1b9e26f2e9853fdfe69154bb42a7c9ea6da4bf4940efc1da99b304dcfbd7d3d9.jpg" data-media-id="editor_10" data-image-id="20250802130824_1b9e26f2e9853fdfe69154bb42a7c9ea6da4bf4940efc1da99b304dcfbd7d3d9" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1152" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon"> </figure>  Chaurikharka is worthwhile to get to in any season, but it has a different charm during the monsoon. Word has spread and because it is now easy to get to from Baglung or even Pokhara, people have been flocking here.&nbsp; “Holidays and Saturdays see the largest crowds, with up to 500 visitors every day,” says ward chair Mankaji Pun of Bhume.&nbsp; There was a time not too long ago when local herders brought sheep, goats, cows, buffaloes, horses, and mules to graze here during the monsoon. Although there are still livestock around, animals have been replaced by visitors taking selfies. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-monsoon-and-nature-s-arithmetic">The monsoon, and nature’s arithmetic</a>, Tom Robertson Ward Chair Pun says infrastructure development is his main priority. A foot trail to Chaurikharka was built last year by the Tourism Division Office in Kohalpur, but access via the Raniwas-Koipa road section still remains challenging.&nbsp; “If we get more budget, we can improve the road and facilities to make Chaurikharka the main tourist attraction of this region,” says Bhume Municipality Chair Hom Prakash Shrestha. “After that, we hope to promote Chaurikharka as a top tourist spot.”&nbsp; Economic activity is also picking up with the arrival of visitors, but there seems to be a need to manage the makeshift sheds made of corrugated sheets that spoil the beauty of the place. Tea shops and lodges are also available but facilities are basic. Kuldeep Neupane took a three-day trip from Ghorahi in Dang to visit Chaurikharka recently, and says: “This is an ideal trip to make a quick getaway and let nature recharge your mind and body. And it is much more fun with a tent, to watch the sunrise over the Himalaya or the mist blowing in.”

Visit Nepal in the monsoon

Nepal is graduating to become a developing country on 24 November 2026 after half-century in the Least Developed Country (LDC) category. By 2030, the country hopes to transition to middle-income status.&nbsp; Everone from Prime Minister K P Oli have boasted that this is a matter of national pride, and will have a multiplier impact on trade and economy.&nbsp; But will it make any difference to the average Nepali? Not unless improved governance <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/why-invest-in-nepal">spurs investment and creates jobs</a>.&nbsp; Countries need to meet at least two of the three criteria in two consecutive triennial reviews to be eligible for graduation from LDC. Nepal has consistently met the thresholds for the Human Assets Index (HAI) and the Economic and Environmental Vulnerability Index (EVI) in 2015, 2018, and 2021. But Nepal was recommended for graduation before meeting the per capita <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/nepals-great-income-divide">Gross National Income (GNI)</a> threshold of $1,306. “A major implication of LDC graduation is the loss of preferential market access available through Generalised System of Preferences (GSP) and other arrangements,” explains economist Sameer Khatiwada. “But over two-thirds of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-doesnt-produce-its-2-biggest-export-items">Nepal’s exports</a> are to India, and the preferential market access to India is through a bilateral trade agreement. This has nothing to do with our LDC status.”  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250815060832_f5eabe7628a8cdf84f33b25d7cef3c4dc8913a26d8e5b253ea52a36e176b8a85.jpg" data-media-id="editor_3" data-image-id="20250815060832_f5eabe7628a8cdf84f33b25d7cef3c4dc8913a26d8e5b253ea52a36e176b8a85" data-rendition-name="original" width="640" height="470" loading="lazy" alt="LDC graduation "> </figure>  Furthermore, a provision under the South Asian Free Trade Area (SAFTA) allows Nepal to export to India duty-free if the items are at least 30% value-added. Nepali traders take advantage of this by re-exporting edible oils without meeting that requirement, falsely boosting Nepal’s exports.“ Following graduation from LDC, the value addition threshold might increase to 40%,” says Kalpana Khanal of the Policy Research Institute. “This is supposed to work to our advantage, because on paper value addition inherently means <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/multimedia/staying-home-to-create-jobs">job creation at home</a>.” But Nepal’s exports to other major destinations will face <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-and-the-us-india-tariff-tiff">tariff increases</a> with the graduation. A South Asia Watch on Trade, Economics and Environment (SWATEE) study shows that while tariff increase in the US market is relatively low (see page 5) it is considerably higher in Europe. The International Trade Centre (ITC) in a 2022 study also estimated that graduation could result in a 4.3% decline in Nepal’s projected exports, but this is excluding the impact of changes in ‘rules of origin’ provisions in preference-granting countries such as the UK and Europe.&nbsp; Nepal’s top export to these preference-granting countries is <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=1482">carpets</a>, and will not be impacted, but other items such as textiles and apparel will be heavily affected due to higher cost of production. The impact will felt mostly by small and medium enterprises which represent the largest share of exports to LDC-specific preference-granting countries. As for the service exports, Nepal never really made use of the World Trade Organization’s LDC services waiver anyway, hence the effect will be minimal, if any. There is also concern about Nepal’s graduation at a time when the global economy is topsy-turvy, amidst <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/turning-point-in-us-india-relations">tariff wars and conflicts</a>. This affects Nepalis abroad directly and may impact <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/more-remittance-more-than-remittance">remittances </a>which hit $11 billion in 2024. In comparison, Nepal only received $350 million in foreign loans and grants last year.&nbsp; Tourism arrivals have finally reached pre-pandemic levels, but bad publicity about pollution, poor infrastructure and bureaucratic hurdles hinder further growth. Manufacturing continues to struggle, while hydropower and the IT sector have taken off.&nbsp; “Look at data -- <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/tourism-needs-a-new-push">tourism arrivals</a> are up, spending is up, IT exports are up, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/why-nepal-needs-to-restore-ev-tax-subsidy">EV sales </a>are up, Europe still needs 85-90 million skilled workers. We are sitting on $16 billion in cash reserves, our balance of payment, foreign exchange reserve, tax to GDP ratio, credit flow are all positive, we have to build on these factors,” says Sujeev Shakya of the Nepal Economic Forum. He adds: “Our mindset creates negativity to promote rent-seeking behaviour, but this cynicism will go away after 2026 with LDC graduation. We must deal with data, look at trends, and projects which will bring in <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/from-the-nepali-press/why-there-is-no-foreign-investment-in-nepal">international investments</a>.” Khanal agrees that investment is not dependent on<a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/backside/Nepal-not-the-least-developed-country,306"> LDC status</a>. The factors that that affect investment are policy stability, a strong legal framework, market potential and ease of doing business. She adds, “That is where our focus needs to be, and we need to retain <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/diaspora-diaries/migrant-worker-returns-to-create-work-at-home?fbclid=IwAR09xJfsClCwn8uRVAmz28CU658vdKpuyDwB_b1sNlvKtAFFnSldnA0JS2g">Nepalis with jobs at home</a> for our sustained growth.” After 2026, financing support from donors and aid agencies could be affected and Nepal will no longer be able to access Least Developed Countries Fund (LDCF) to adapt to the impacts of climate change. But the Global Environment Fund and Green Climate Fund will still be available.“ LDC status does not determine bilateral development aid, that is usually driven by broader <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/looking-beyond-two-boulders">geopolitical considerations</a>,” says Sameer Khatiwada. “The World Bank and Asian Development Bank, which provide concessional loans to Nepal, it is determined mainly by per capita income, not LDC status.” &nbsp;However, Nepal may lose some concessional terms for loans. Nepal is currently a lower-middle-income country as per the World Bank in the bracket for GNI between $1,036 and $4,045. The country is already receiving more loans than grants and in July the World Bank increased its interest rate on loans by 100% from 0.75 to 1.5%. “All this means that the impact of LDC graduation for Nepal might not be as earth-shattering as some tend to think. Countries that have recently graduated, such as Botswana and the Maldives, have shows that graduation is just a step in a country’s development path,” says Khatiwada. Sujeev Shakya also sees the glass as half full, explaining that LDC graduation is just a stepping stone if Nepal has the right policies in place. He adds, “Nepal’s biggest advantage is our<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/investing-in-people"> working age population</a> and we have investments coming in. These aided by how adaptive we are as a society are the very foundations on which Nepal will grow.”

Not poor, but not rich

Two weeks ago, Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli announced jubilantly on social media that Nepal had achieved a historic annual growth of 81.8% in exports. He was right. Nepal’s trade did take a great leap forward compared to last year. But the dramatic rise was mainly due to processed soya bean oil.&nbsp; However, Nepal does not produce the edible oil it exports. In fact, the soya and palm oil that make up 44% of total exports are imported from Southeast Asia and South America, and simply re-exported, mostly to India.&nbsp; Under the SAFTA (South Asian Free Trade Area) Agreement, Nepal can export products to India duty-free if it has at least 30% value-added. Nepal’s traders have taken advantage of SAFTA even though the edible oils they export do not reach that value addition threshold. “The 30% value addition requirement is often only on paper,” says former commerce secretary Purushottam Ojha. “It is clear that simply packaging edible oils in Nepal does not fulfil the terms of the trade agreement.” Prime Minister Oli is aware of this, and even called Nepal’s export figures “fake” at an earlier event. The government is relying on other iffy figures to suggest that Nepal’s economy is strong and getting stronger. For example, the value of imports rose by 13.25% in 2024-25 compared to the previous fiscal year.&nbsp; Some of it was due to a jump in electric vehicle imports worth Rs 31.76 billion, but mostly it was because more wholesale soya oil was imported to be re-packaged and sold in India. The very fact that the government boasts about increased imports is an indication of how much it relies on taxing them for revenue. Touting such trade figures cannot be the basis to claim an economic rebound.&nbsp; “A jump in the value of imports can be interpreted as an increase in purchasing power, but it is not evidence of a stronger economy,” says economist Keshav Acharya. “Even though imports have increased, Nepal's domestic production and productive capacity have not improved.” Nepal Rastra Bank's semi-annual economic activity study report shows that industrial production was down in the first six months of the last fiscal year. This despite an increase in the number of new industries registered and investment commitments. Out of the Rs70.2 billion proposed foreign investment, Nepal received only Rs17.9 billion last year.&nbsp; Meanwhile, the rate of capital formation was limited to 24% last year, which is lower than the year before, suggesting that new investment, job creation and economic expansion all declined. If domestic production does not improve in relation to this year’s inflated trade figures, the outflow will put pressure on foreign exchange reserves like it did three years ago. At that time, Nepal borrowed from the IMF under its Extended Credit Facility Program to kickstart the economy.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025080710084_2cdaaa5795828c4a7de93a0604ba884ef0a8b8f24cccd939f6c24e279ab6058f.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="2025080710084_2cdaaa5795828c4a7de93a0604ba884ef0a8b8f24cccd939f6c24e279ab6058f" data-rendition-name="original" width="1633" height="723" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal's bubble economy NT"> <figcaption>Source: NEPAL RASTRA BANK</figcaption> </figure>  The macroeconomy is on firm footing with foreign exchange reserves at a comfortable Rs2,520 billion in May, up 23% from last year. This was largely due to remittances, and partly due to a falling NPR exchange rate. Real estate transactions and the stock market index have also been climbing as a result of government policies to revive the sector.&nbsp; However, former executive director of Nepal Rastra Bank Nar Bahadur Thapa cautions: “This is not organic growth, it is the result of deliberate policy decisions to relax rules on real estate and stock markets transactions.” In reality, the sharp rise in land prices have increased the cost of production, and excessive monetisation of the real estate has become the main source of Nepal’s economic woes. The central bank has announced a slew of new policies, shifting the terms of loan repayment for industrialists and entrepreneurs, reducing interest rates, and injecting more working capital — all designed to inject adrenaline into the real estate and stock market sectors.&nbsp; When he was governor, Mahaprasad Adhikari made several financial reforms during the latter half of his tenure to stimulate the economy, including tightening credit flow.&nbsp; By the last fiscal year, additional financial reforms had resulted in a credit expansion rate of around 8%. As the pace of credit expansion slows, real estate prices have started to fall. This is actually beneficial to the economy, because it lays the foundation for improvements in land-related entrepreneurship, production, and the construction sector. Just because real estate and the stock market transactions increase, it does not indicate an economic turnaround — especially when manufacturing and productive sector continues to languish.&nbsp; “It is foolish to believe that real estate and the stock market have magically revived our economy. Agriculture employs more than half of the population, but it is in decline. Investment in the productive sector has not increased, and job creation has not increased.” Two years ago, Nepal’s industrialists, business leaders, and political leadership predicted a recession amidst a sluggish business, declining market demand, large-scale job loss, and a shrinking real estate and share market.&nbsp; Still, the economy grew by 3.36% in fiscal year 2023/24. In fact, Nepal’s economy has grown nominally over the last two decades even when all sectors of the economy are in decline.&nbsp; Says Keshav Acharya: “The growth in trade, real estate, and the stock market are bubbles. The real economy remains stagnant.”

Nepal’s bubble economy

American artist Peter Makela was in Nepal in 2022 on a Fulbright scholarship when he experienced the Matya festival in Patan in which devotees made the rounds of the city’s shrines.&nbsp;
He joined the procession, walking through 2,600 stupa and 140 bahal of the town. That immersion left a lasting impression.
As part of Gallery Mcube’s international residency program in Patan, he put his inspiration to canvas in the exhibition Yala Yatra: Walking, Working, Worshipping. The exhibition also coincides with this month’s Matya festival.&nbsp;
Makela has visited Nepal often in the past 11 years but he mostly stayed in and spent his time around Boudha. “This time I stayed in Patan, put the sites I wanted to visit on my map, and off I went,” he tells us. “Each of my artwork is inspired by the stupas and shrines in Patan that I visited.”
The stupa and Ganesh are recurring motifs in his watercolours, and the elephant gods are located in chaityas — reflecting the interplay and blending of the Hindu and Buddhist faiths in Kathmandu Valley.&nbsp;
The stupas and Ganesh are painted in vivid red, yellow, blue and green against abstract backgrounds meant to represent the sky.
“I use the sky as a backdrop because the sky has no border,” says Makela. “The four colours represent the four elements, the different Buddha families and also lights bouncing off of a rainbow.”
The use of just four colours for all the artwork stands out, and combined with the absence of heavy canvases, frames or stands render Makela’s art striking in its simplicity.&nbsp;
The Ganesh is always holding something and the art also portrays the elephant god’s sacred vehicle, the mouse.
While his vibrant stupas and Ganesh reflect the tangibility of Patan’s tradition and heritage, it is as if the backdrops with their shades of grey and red and yellow capture the soul of the city’s shrines.
“If you look closely, there is a sense of form and formlessness at the same time,” he says.&nbsp;
Makela walked 108 kora around the shrines during his exploration of the town, and in the process developed a spiritual connection with Patan’s heritage and traditions.&nbsp;
The exhibition connects with visitors on a deeper, more spiritual, level as well. And with it, they feel a sense of pride as well as the need to urgently preserve Patan’s heritage for future generations.
“Peter’s inclination and approach towards Nepali art and culture is fascinating, and it reflects in his work,” says Mcube curator Manish Lal Shrestha, whose international artist residency program promotes Nepal’s cultural heritage. &nbsp;&nbsp;
Yala Yatra: Walking, Working, Worshipping
1-5 August&nbsp;
10AM-7PM
Gallery Mcube, Patan

disaster-financing

In a disastrous state

Visit Nepal in the monsoon

Not poor, but not rich

Nepal’s bubble economy

Walking, working, worshipping in Patan