Earthquakes would be less scary if they could be forecast, like the weather. Small quakes would no longer be startling, and there could be early warning of bigger quakes, preventing a greater loss of life. In <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/mind-the-gap">seismic zones like Nepal</a>, it is not a question of ‘if’ but ‘when’ an earthquake will strike. And most <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Gizmo/Quake-Alarm-Gizmo-Yantrick,1057">gadgets that detect earthquakes</a> are either false alarms or come just a few seconds before the violent shaking starts. &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Earthquake Early Warning Systems (EEWS) are instruments which can buy people 5-60 seconds before <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/shaking-things-up?%2F">an earthquake hits</a>, depending on distance from the epicenter. This is not a lot of time, but often enough to get out of a building and head to safety. EEWS do not forecast an earthquake, but the sensitive instruments detect the initial P-waves of an earthquake and send out the warning before the more destructive S-waves arrive. Such systems are used in Japan to stop bullet trains and to make lifts stop at the next floor. Installing the relatively inexpensive systems in <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/structural-problems">schools and other public buildings</a>, can provide critical seconds for building evacuation.&nbsp; Although they do not provide much time, the most reliable method is the EEWS. How much early warning these systems can buy depends on the density of the sensor network, how fast the data is transmitted, and distance from the epicenter. As seismic waves travel through speeds of 1-5 km/second, EEWS is not much use in the areas right around the epicenter, but can be life-saving further away. Such a system is already in place now in many countries, but has not been used much in Nepal. If a proper system had been in place during <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/lessons-not-learned-from-2015-o2etq6zu">the 2015 earthquake </a>epicentered in Gorkha, Kathmandu could have received a warning 30-40 seconds prior, says earthquake hazard expert Prashant Rawal of the National Society for Earthquake Technology - Nepal (NSET). “Before we can implement a functioning warning system, we need to have a denser network of sensors,” says Rawal, “Right now, we only have about 40 sensors setup, so we are still in the first stage of network establishment.” Japan’s EEWS system, for example, features over 1,000 sensors, while China has more than 150,000 monitoring stations. The sensors detect the early P-waves of an earthquake, and then use later S-waves to update the magnitude. Alerts are then broadcast through multiple channels, including mass media, phones, apps, and sirens. Upon receiving a signal, trains are programmed to stop at the nearest possible station, and elevators at the closest floor. The system is not perfect, sometimes underestimating and other times overestimating the strength of a quake, but it worked well enough to give Tokyo 30 secods in the 9.0 Sendai earthquake in 2011, and 10-20 seconds in the 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250422100444_abc37a566c8b7f1ed680d9fab5bf749f9680a19f316fe33785f81dd19363a467.jpg" data-media-id="editor_5" data-image-id="20250422100444_abc37a566c8b7f1ed680d9fab5bf749f9680a19f316fe33785f81dd19363a467" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="465" loading="lazy" alt="quake alarm"> </figure>  In Nepal, there is no clear policy from the government for such a project, which makes it difficult to fund -- although NSET has worked with the l<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/local-government-by-the-people-for-the-people-of-the-people">ocal and federal governments </a>to place sensors. Other problems are largely technical. In regions like <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/now-a-digital-karnali">Karnali </a>and Surkhet, fluctuations in voltage and <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/thunderstruck-in-nepal">lightning strikes</a> often damage sensors, and even when they do detect shaking, there is no reliable internet to transmit these signals. “We have to establish these sensors in hill or mountain areas, and make long trips in order to maintain or repair them. There is often a lack of budget to make these trips,” says Rawal. Duke University and Tribhuvan University are collaborating to set up a smart seismic sensing network in Kathmandu, create a mobile messaging system for early warnings, and develop data science models from previous seismic data. There is now promise of even more accurate prediction systems that use <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/people-power/nepal-as-an-ai-power-bank">Artificial Intelligence</a>. Researchers from the University of Texas at Austin trained AI and were able to develop a model that predicted 70% of earthquakes during a seven-month trial in China, with accurate forecasts of magnitude and epicentre.&nbsp; Another traditional prediction method is to observe animals which have a sixth sense to feel earthquakes before they happen. Other theories include measuring the emission of the radioactive gas radon which is trapped underground and is released as the ground shifts before an earthquake. But there is the issue of false positives: the release of the gas may be triggered by rainfall.&nbsp; However, while the developers of these theories have always claimed to have predicted certain earthquakes, none have been able to do so reliably. Some have been debunked, after failed forecasts, or due to shoddy methodology. EEWS sensors use accelerometers which detect how fast the ground moves. If three to four accelerometers spaced at a distance apart all detect the movement of the ground, then it is likely that an earthquake is happening.&nbsp; The magnitude and approximate location of the earthquake is then calculated using computer algorithms, and a message would be sent out if the quake is deemed to be large enough. It is not a lack of budget that is holding back using EEWS: the sensors cost only $200-500. “The system could be certainly implemented if the necessary political will was there,” says Rawal, presumably from the government.&nbsp;

Vishad Raj Onta

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Yes, quakes can be forecast

Samsung Nepal has opened pre-orders for the Galaxy A57 5G and A37 5G. Both phones run Samsung’s One UI 8.5, featuring AI capabilities like voice transcription, Circle to Search, and photo editing. They feature a 50MP triple-camera system, a Super AMOLED display, and six years of OS and security updates.

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Know your Ministers

‘One early morning, we heard the ambassador’s wife cry out, “Ram, Ram, Ram!” A disaster has befallen Nepal!” She had heard on the radio that a fire had consumed Singha Durbar." This is not about the arson attack on 9 September 2025, but the one on 8 July, 1973. It started in the South Wing of the then single-largest building in all of Nepal. It took two days to bring the blaze under control, requiring the use of explosives to demolish one wing to protect the imposing western facade. As Bhekh Bahadur Thapa recalls in the English translation of his memoir A Life in Public Service: Nepal from Autocracy to Democracy, he was then on leave from the Nepal government serving with the IDRC in Ottawa.&nbsp; He had already served as Nepal’s Finance Secretary at age 25, went on to be Finance Minister and Governor of Nepal Rastra Bank. He was already younger than some of the GenZ ministers in Nepal’s present RSP government. Thapa, now 89, was at the launch of the book in February which was attended by former diplomats and bureaucrats. After speeches by panelists, there was a question from the audience about how Thapa had managed to be the diplomat he was, managing Nepal’s international relations on the world stage.&nbsp; Writer and journalist Akhilesh Upadhyay, who was moderating the panel, responded by going into the section of the book where we see Thapa as an ambassador to the US, playing tennis with White House officials, cultivating a network of contacts to project the identity and welfare of Nepal, and making it possible for a state visit by King Birendra to Ronald Reagan’s America. The book is full of anecdotes that suggest Thapa was a clever and strategic diplomat, always calm and unruffled, easily making friends in high places with his maturity and engaging sense of humour. Thapa’s memoir is heavy on details about Nepal’s administrative history during the years he was active in public service, serving as minister and ambassador under three kings: Mahendra, Birendra and Gyanendra, and alongside five prime ministers.&nbsp; Aside from an insider look on how certain treaties, development deals and research projects in Nepal came into fruition, Thapa goes into great detail about his personal and professional relationships with the kings, ministers, ambassadors, foreign leaders and politicians.&nbsp; As a reader, one is struck by the level of detail around the events that unfolded in Nepal over the years during Thapa’s tenure. Was Thapa recording a journal over the years of the events and the conversations that transpired, or were they committed to his phenomenal memory? Either way, the reader gets a glimpse of Nepal’s recent history from the early days of the Panchayat, through the People’s Movement and the democracy period, the Maoist insurgency, Royal Palace massacre of 2001, and Gyanendra’s coup of 2005.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2026041204048_125dc8ae300a1e33124f394abe724d42727f83e067b0201d2008b58d60c459a4.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="2026041204048_125dc8ae300a1e33124f394abe724d42727f83e067b0201d2008b58d60c459a4" data-rendition-name="original" width="1584" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="How to win friends and influence nations NT"> </figure>  Not enough is said about the political parties of the time whose presence led to the way Nepal’s multiparty democracy came to be shaped. The book keeps its focus on the administration and the key figures around it, mostly those in the Panchayat era. Towards the second half of the book, we do start to hear about political parties, but not in great depth. Another figure whose presence in the book is conspicuously less prominent is that of his wife, Rita Thapa — the person who seems to have rescued him every time financial quandary or family care became a challenge. Yet, we do not see her as a full person. Perhaps because of the personal tragedies in his life, the children are also barely mentioned.&nbsp; The book is therefore less personal and more technical. Throughout, we learn about Thapa’s thinking as he navigated the world of diplomacy to win him the trust of those who mattered. There are tips here for a new generation of Nepali officials and diplomats about how much commitment and focus is needed to be good at one’s job and serve the national interest. This book adds to tomes that have been written on Nepal’s fragile relationship with India. ‘India has always wished for Nepal to remain dependent on it,’ writes Thapa, who served as Nepal’s ambassador to India and later in the Eminent Persons Group &nbsp;on Indo-Nepal relations that has been allowed to languish. The book has several insights into the Indo-Nepal trysts with diplomacy and agency.&nbsp; China’s role is also recorded, viewed through conversations during a visit to Beijing, but all that was before Nepal’s neighbour to the north emerged as a world economic and military power. The book also has such sudden instances of quirkiness and humour. For instance, we see a young Thapa in America explaining to a government official why he would like to return to Nepal instead of settling down in the US. “Because, Nepal is beautiful,” he said. The text is immaculate and does not read much like a translation, credit for which clearly goes to the team that put the edition together: translator Prawin Adhikari, &nbsp;Anagha Neelakanthan and Bhekh Thapa’s daughter, Manjushree. As Nepal enters a new era of governance and diplomacy, A Life in Public Service: Nepal from Autocracy to Democracy should be essential reading for students of political science, economics and foreign affairs who can gain a fresh perspective on the country’s trajectory.&nbsp; There are dozens of forgotten state secrets recorded in the book, but the reader must also remember this is a story told from one person’s perspective and there may be others.&nbsp; So, what really made Thapa the diplomat he was? I met him in 2004 at the Kantipur TV studio when he was serving as king Gyanendra’s foreign minister. He was there for a studio interview, and I was just done with my English newscast.&nbsp; He surprised me at the door: “Pratibha! I’ve been reading your articles in The Kathmandu Post. You must keep writing.” I thanked him, glad to have been noticed for my work by a stranger. That was perhaps one of the things that set Thapa apart — he excelled at staying close to those in power, while also noticing those who were not.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260412040412_213e706136a038ec9f5e2b8c6d7f7c1e9ceed9479e22fe2884872ad7bd20955f.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20260412040412_213e706136a038ec9f5e2b8c6d7f7c1e9ceed9479e22fe2884872ad7bd20955f" data-rendition-name="original" width="1136" height="702" loading="lazy" alt="Book details"> </figure>

How to win friends and influence nations

Prime Minister Balendra Shah on Wednesday broke tradition and met with 17 foreign envoys collectively, a move that was a notable departure from how his predecessors operated.&nbsp;
Shah had already set himself apart by talking less, listening more, and delegating to trusted friends. But by meeting all ambassadors at one go in the presence of the Foreign Ministry, he signalled a paradigm shift in how he wants Nepal to be seen: no longer just balancing India and China, but as a country confident about its <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/guest-editorial/tripolar-contestation-over-nepal">strategic importance and place in the world</a>.
In just two weeks, the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/rsp-dos-and-don-ts">RSP has sprung into action </a>on multiple fronts to implement its ambitious 100-point, 100-days action plan. It has taken short-term measures to mitigate the impact of the Gulf war, as well as medium- and long- term measures to streamline the bureaucracy. A few high-profile figures have been made examples of to drive the message home.
Earlier this week, the government recalled six politically appointed ambassadors, the most notable being long-serving Shankar Sharma from New Delhi. The Kathmandu District Court issued arrest warrants against former prime minister Sher Bahadur Deuba and his former foreign minister wife Arzu Rana on charges of money laundering and corruption.
Each ministry has been trying to clean up the accumulated rot from the past three decades: regulatory overhaul of microfinance, education, health and service delivery.&nbsp;
These actions widely disseminated campaign-style on YouTube and TikTok have made most Nepalis hopeful that the party they installed in power means business.
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BACKLASH
But such attempts to overhaul a long-entrenched political culture were bound to face backlash. In their impatience and enthusiasm to get things done, some of Prime Minister Shah’s ministers have over-reached.
It was common knowledge that government-paid advertising in the mainstream press was kickback-driven, but the PMO’s directive that official notices be published or broadcast only on state-run media has been denounced — especially as the media industry struggles to stay afloat.
More serious are some recent appointments by ministers of relatives and figures closely associated with the RSP to key positions. This has rankled because this party built its political plank on ending nepotism and graft.&nbsp;
News that Home Minister Sudan Gurung allegedly had not paid rent on leased land, which illegally encroached on the lake in Pokhara did not help. &nbsp;
Prime Minister Shah himself has come under scrutiny for appointing a kitchen cabinet full of male buddies from his time as Kathmandu mayor. To douse criticism he brought in as adviser investigative journalist Deepa Dahal, who has exposed corruption in high places of the previous coalitions.&nbsp;
Shah’s appointment of another political adviser Asim Shah to the head Constitution Amendment Task Force, is also seen as problematic. He is a filmmaker and former lawmaker, but does not have a background in constitutional law.&nbsp;
Even more controversial is the Cabinet’s decision to appoint RSP Chair Rabi Lamichhane’s legal counsel, Narayan Kandel, as Attorney General. Kandel used to be a UK permanent resident, and does not have as much experience practicing law in Nepal.&nbsp;
Kandel’s appointment drew flak and raised eyebrows, and with the pending legal cases against Lamichhane this appointment represents a flagrant conflict of interest.
Health Minister Nisha Mehta was also accused of favouritism after reappointing Junu Shrestha, wife of Labour Minister Dipak Kumar Shah, as member of the Health Insurance Board which had earlier suspended her. The Labour Minister’s rambling rant at the Board’s meeting on Tuesday has not helped the RSP’s image.&nbsp;
(UPDATE: On Thursday, Prime Minister Shah sacked the Labour Minister after the RSP found him in breach of the party's code of conduct and discipline. He served 14 days in the Cabinet, one of the shortest tenures for a minister in Nepal )
It is hard to know what <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/ball-in-balen-s-court">Balendra Shah is thinking</a>, and how Rabi Lamichhane is going to justify some of these moves. After all, making politics, governance, and bureaucracy a meritocracy has been the core tenet of the RSP, and it risks alienating its mainly youth base if these missteps persist.
But at least for now, most RSP supporters seem to be giving the party the benefit of doubt.

earthquake-forecast

Yes, quakes can be forecast

Galaxy A series

Know your Ministers

How to win friends and influence nations

Nepal’s new government springs into action