<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022120710128/639058669c7e80680e0ce19ejpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1504" height="1000"/>As Nepal enters the last lap in federal and provincial races, candidates and their cadres seem more excited than voters. Across the Inner Tarai here and in the plains bordering India, voters are disillusioned and indifferent about the polls.First off, most people we talked to said they did not want to vote for the same old candidates they elected five years ago, and have been around for the past two decades. Moreover, there is confusion about which candidate is representing which party, and who is loyal to whom, because the coalition is made up of parties with diametrically opposing ideologies.With such unholy alliances, Hetuada’s UML voters are now being asked to cast ballots in favour of a candidate batting for a return of the Hindu monarchy. Nepali Congress (NC) supporters have been told to vote for Maoist candidates, some of whom tortured and killed people during the conflict.Voters have given up trying to fathom why political parties and candidates who fought and suffered for the establishment of a secular, federal Nepal now cross over to those want to scrap those provisions. Individuals contesting the elections as independents because they did not get party tickets have muddied the waters even more.Except for die-hard party supporters, the electorate understands that the elections are not about principles or resolving everyday problems any more, but propelling the same old leaders back to power.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/election-climate-in-nepal/">Election climate in Nepal</a>, Shilshila Acharya“The NC is likely to get a good number of seats in <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/the-politics-of-province-2/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Madhes Province</a>, but independents have a strong chance in some constituencies,” predicts Govinda Devkota of Narayani Samudayik FM in Birganj, who thinks the JSP partnership with the NC could garner 10-12 seats with the UML-LSP alliance and Unified Socialists trailing.The dominant trend is that Madhes-based parties like the JSP and LSP have lost their lustre, and the established national parties like the NC, UML and Maoists now hold sway over the Madhes vote through their alliances. Still, among younger voters there is visible discontent against both Madhes-based parties and the national parties, and they are fed up of electing the same underperforming and corrupt leaders again and again.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022120710128/639058699c7e80680e0ce19fjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="372" height="355">“During the Madhes Movement (of 2015) many people here were killed but their sacrifice got us nothing. Only the leaders and political parties are reaping the benefits all in the name of Madhes,” says Munna Saraaf, a youth activist and actor in Birganj.Saraaf has been travelling to Ilam, Kohalpur and several other places performing on stage to raise awareness about voting the right candidates to power, and is also vocal about extravagant campaign spending which could make the Madhes a hotbed for corruption.“There are no new educational organisations, employment opportunities, projects or industries where the youth can be involved productively. It was better during the king’s time. But we must change that and cast our votes for competent candidates,” he adds.The coveted Parsa constituency has Pradeep Yadav, the former minister from JSP contesting against the governing coalition’s Laxman Lal Karna of LSP, and the rebel independent candidate who defected from the NC, Ajay Dwivedi.“Pradeep Yadav won five years ago but his voters are not happy with his performance. Karna, does not have the leadership qualities. Therefore voters may end up supporting the independent Dwivedi,” says Gobinda Devkota.The participation of women candidates is even less in the Tarai than the already low national average. In Parsa district, only Karima Begum who is contesting as an independent and the JSP’s Salma Khatun have a significant presence. “The others are neither heard nor seen,” says Sushma Sharma a reporter with Prateek Daily in Birganj.But the 2022 Nepal election is defined by <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/coalition-collision/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">electoral coalitions</a> regardless of party ideology or dogma. Anjali Thapa, president of Press Center Makwanpur in Hetauda says: “The campaigning methods and the agenda in this year’s election are very different. Both the ruling coalition and the opposition have formed alliances to win.”For example, Kamal Thapa of the RPP-N is contesting under the UML’s ‘Sun’ symbol. Pitted against him is Mahalaxmi Upadhyaya (Dina) from the governing coalition who is expected to gather votes from both the Maoists, NC and the US. Even so, some NC supporters who do not agree with the alliance with the Maoists could go over to Kamal Thapa’s side, while other UML dissidents may not support a candidate they regard as an oppressor of the people.All this points to a mixed outcome which could lead to further instability and horse-trading post elections. At the end of the day, all most voters want are competent and honest leaders who provide jobs, better infrastructure and affordable education and medical facilities. They could not care less about alliances.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/battle-of-ballots/">Battle of ballots</a>, Shristi Karki

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Voters cynical about electoral alliances

<img width="800" height="441" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111144/63721c219c7e80680e0bd479jpeg.jpg" alt=""/>Three days after the Nepali Congress (NC) Central Working Committee announced it would leave it up to its local committees to decide on candidates for local elections in May, the Maoist Center (MC) Chair Pushpa Kamal brought out his trump card: if the Congress did not agree on common candidates he would forge an alliance with the opposition UML.
Like a jilted partner in a love triangle, the Maoist Centre is playing the NC and UML against each other ahead of the 13 May<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/periphery-within-the-periphery-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"> local elections</a>. In this, Chitwan is a microcosm of what is happening across Nepal — the Maoists are too weak to go it alone, some in the Congress do not want an electoral alliance with them, and despite its split the UML still has a strong party structure down to the grassroots.
Whenever he does not get what he wants from the NC, Dahal threatens to join hands with the UML’s K P Oli. It was a <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/thebrief/2017/12/09/the-rise-of-the-red/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/thebrief/2017/12/09/the-rise-of-the-red/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1649298501865000&amp;usg=AOvVaw3gag3_L8da5PSoGfs004EO">Maoist-UML alliance</a> that swept the 2017 federal election, and the two parties formally united to form the Nepal Communist Party (NCP) which got dismantled in 2021 by the Supreme Court after a prolonged power struggle between Oli and Dahal.
With local polls only a little more than a month away, coalition partners Nepali Congress, Maoists, Unified Socialist and the Janata Samajwadi Party met on Tuesday to try to decide on common candidates. But all five coalition members want different things to ensure maximum benefit for their own party.
An electoral alliance means coalition partners agree to jointly select <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/deputies-drive-development-in-rural-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">candidates</a> for mayors, municipality chairs and other positions so they do not cancel each other out. The NC thinks it can win a majority on its own. Dahal has boasted he can do the same, but his party needs the Congress more than the Congress needs him. But the Congress is also wary of the UML’s strength.

Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/think-nationally-vote-locally/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Think nationally, vote locally</a>, Editorial
Senior Congress leaders like Shekhar Koirala, who challenged Sher Bahadur Deuba for party chairmanship during the recent NC <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/tis-the-season-of-conventions-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">general convention</a>, have urged the prime minister against an electoral alliance. He wants local Congress leaders to have full authority to decide whether they choose to run independently, coordinate with coalition partners or with parties outside the governing alliance. 
In 2017, NC lost the key constituency of Pokhara, where the party’s candidate Ramji Kunwar lost the election to the UML candidate despite having formed an electoral alliance with the Maoists. This is why the Congress hierarchy is averse to partnering with the Maoists.  
Similarly, the UML and the Maoists had formed separate alliances against the Congress in Biratnagar local polls, but Congress candidates won both chair and deputy chair there in 2017. The Maoists allied with the UML against the Congress in Tanahun’s Byas Municipality, but the Congress still won both chair and deputy-chair.  
For the Maoists, any electoral alliance with any party is a means to an end. The 2017 election results indicate that while the Maoists would gain from an electoral alliance with the NC, Maoist support will not guarantee the Nepali Congress local wins. 

Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/all-politics-is-local/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">All politics is local</a>, Sahina Shrestha
One of these is Chitwan’s Bharatpur Metropolitan City. In 2017, <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/thebrief/2017/07/17/metro-without-mayor/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/thebrief/2017/07/17/metro-without-mayor/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1649298501865000&amp;usg=AOvVaw0I-xEI6y3p20AgQQg8y0pd">Maoist supporters disrupted the vote counting</a> process, <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/thebrief/2017/07/30/re-polling-in-ward-19/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/thebrief/2017/07/30/re-polling-in-ward-19/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1649298501865000&amp;usg=AOvVaw104ig7cwnP7s8S37QEKTuk">tearing up ballot papers </a>to secure the mayorship for Dahal’s daughter Renu Dahal with Congress support, who was the weaker candidate.
Many families who fled the Maoist insurgency in the mountains moved down and settled in Chitwan, and it is regarded as a Congress stronghold. Bharatpur, especially, has a strong Congress base and many there are not happy with their party leadership once again allowing Renu Dahal to win just because of coalition calculations in Kathmandu. The NC’s Chitwan committee decided on Sunday that it will go it alone to contest Bharatpur mayorship.  
It is an indication of just how opportunistic electoral alliances are that while the Maoists and Congress colluded to allow Renu Dahal to win Bharatpur in <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/thebrief/2017/05/14/all-politics-is-local/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/thebrief/2017/05/14/all-politics-is-local/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1649298501865000&amp;usg=AOvVaw2-vDW8RlGIzeX5LvObejYc" style="letter-spacing: 0.01em;">local elections in 2017</a>, the Maoists went on to partner with the UML for federal elections.  
Which is why what happens in Bharatpur during May’s local elections is so symbolic. If the Congress does not agree to the Maoists on an electoral alliance in Bharatpur, and the Maoists lose the city, the governing coalition will likely collapse. 
Ramji Dahal
Translated from the <a href="https://www.himalkhabar.com/news/129133" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.himalkhabar.com/news/129133&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1649298501865000&amp;usg=AOvVaw1WIX4eZLmyPLoefdo_IYdq">Nepali original</a> in <a href="http://himalkhabar.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://himalkhabar.com/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1649298501865000&amp;usg=AOvVaw3q7IwfaIjcCe-QLq-NZAi-">himalkhabar.com</a> by Shristi Karki.

Coalition calculation

Nepali Congress (NC) President Gagan Thapa's candidacy in Sarlahi-4 has thrust this Madhes constituency into rare national focus. If Thapa wins and the NC emerges as the largest party, Sarlahi-4 will send Nepal's next prime minister to Parliament. But if he does not, Nepal’s grand old party will face the next years in the opposition to fight another day. There is a troubling paradox in Sarlahi-4 where the district bordering the Indian state of Bihar has been a battleground for national politicians with fierce electoral competition, all while remaining one of the region's most underserved and underdeveloped constituencies.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485.png" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485" data-rendition-name="original" width="1802" height="1276" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: MADHES PAHARA MEDIA</figcaption> </figure>  Ever since Mahant Thakur split from NC in 2008 to form the Tarai Madhes Loktantrik Party, the district has seen rotating political alliances and fragmented votes. Yet, despite 18 years of candidates promising change irrigation schemes remain incomplete, market access for farmers has not improved, unemployment is high.&nbsp; On election day, voters here marked their ballots with fingers stained by dye from the Holi festival the day before. The road leading to Barathawa Bazar was deserted for the most part, except for some youth riding in motorcycles. This is where the high-profile contest between Gagan Thapa and RSP nominee Amresh Singh is being staged. Among the other aspirants is 27-year-old UML candidate Amnish Yadav, the son of former MP Shiv Pujan Yadav. The Yadavs are a political family with considerable caste influence in the constituency. In 2022 Yadav’s daughter Madhumala Yadav received over 14,000 votes here, ranking third overall. Yadav was voted MP from the Maoist party, but defected to the UML this time. His other son is the chair of Sarlahi’s Ramnagar Rural Municipality. Sarhali-4 has 121,012 voters, and the Yadav is banking on the 27,000-strong Yadav vote bank. Sarlahi-4 voter Avishek Sah told us he wanted his vote to go to a young nominee and not someone who has been MP thrice already, like Amresh Singh. &nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10" data-rendition-name="original" width="1200" height="1600" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  To make local loyalties even more complicated, Amnish Yadav’s uncle, Harinder Yadav is an active NC member and walked side by side with Gagan Thapa during his door-to-door campaigns.&nbsp; The NC is betting on Thapa getting over 60% of the total votes. Amresh Singh’s tally could be limited to 10,000 votes — that too because of the nationwide RSP wave, and the popularity of its prime ministerial hopeful Balendra (Balen) Shah. “Amresh Singh lost his appeal when he played victim after he was denied a ticket by the NC in 2022,” Harinder Yadav says. Voters we spoke to here agreed with this assessment that Singh did not do much for the district once he got elected in the past, and being a part of the RSP seems to be his biggest asset. “The only reason I voted for Amresh Singh is because Balen is in RSP,” local voter Mahendra Gupta from Barathawa. &nbsp;“This is his last chance to return the people’s trust.”&nbsp; Gupta is aware of the institutional presence of the NC here. The party received the most votes in 2022 local elections, adding that the candidacy of someone as high-profile as Thapa is a positive sign for Sarlahi-4.&nbsp; Other voters like Ruby Gupta are rooting for both the NC and the RSP. “I will vote for Gagan and for Balen,” she says, adding that her FPTP vote will go to Thapa while her PR ballot would be for the RSP. RSP supporters are confident that their candidate will win big because even though many voters may not have openly voiced their support they still voted for the party and candidate. The Balen Wave was not limited to RSP voters, but also to UML candidate Yadav, who said in a gathering that he will be “the voters Balen” if they elect him. He touted his party’s track record in government, and largely campaigned on administrative efficiency, infrastructural expansion, and local service delivery. Amresh Singh ran on the RSP’s anti-establishment brand, promising to fight corruption, challenge traditional party politics, improve basic services such as education, health, jobs, and infrastructure, while pushing for stronger representation and development for Madhes.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="1200" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo:AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  Singh’s rivalry with his NC competitor goes beyond the ballot— he allegedly blames Thapa for being denied the NC ticket in 2022, which led him to win the election from Sarlahi-4 as an independent. &nbsp; For his part, Gagan Thapa focused on a more pragmatic development agenda that includes upgrading roads and irrigation, improving schools and hospitals, supporting farmers, and creating employment opportunities with improved governance at the centre. He also promised to build an engineering college in the constituency.&nbsp; Thapa also promoted his own anti-establishment image within the NC, repeatedly reminding voters on the campaign trail that he represents the aspirations of the youth.&nbsp; On Thursday, as voting progressed, there were violent disruptions in two centres where voting was briefly halted. But Sarlahi district police spokesperson Saroj Rai told Nepali Times that there were no major problems. Police in collaboration with the Nepal Army sent the ballot papers to the district’s counting stations, where the votes are expected to be tallied through the night and the winner announced Friday morning.

Sarlahi-4 nervously watches ballot count

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<div class="embed-block"><iframe src="https://election-geo-dashboard.pages.dev/" width="100%" height="700" frameborder="0"> </iframe></div>

Nepal election live results

As this report is uploaded, the latest results in Nepal’s election show that the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) is headed for an even bigger sweep than most had predicted.
The RSP was leading by large margins in 49 of 165 constituencies, &nbsp;with the UML, NC and NCP trailing far behind. Prominent political figures from the old parties like K P Oli, Minwndra Prasad Rijal, Ishwar Pokhrel, Bishnu Prasad Poudel, Bimalendra Nidhi all seem headed for defeat.
It does look like the RSP’s bell election symbol is ringing right across Nepal — from cities to the remotest districts in the mountains and plains. The party’s blue colour is sweeping the land.
The Nepali people seem to have sent a clear message that they were throughly dissatisfied with the chronic failure of the three main parties to work in the national interest to create jobs and deliver development. It was also an expression of lingering outrage over the the 8 September massacre outside Parliament. &nbsp;
It now looks almost certain that Balendra Shah will get to be Nepal’s next, and youngest, prime minister. Hopefully he will be leading a cabinet of competent and honest technocrats. It remains to seen how the power equation between Shah and the RSP’s leader, Rabi Lamichhane will play out.
Lamichhane is out of jail on bail for fraud cases which he has called political vendetta by the previous regime. Both he and Shah are charismatic and ambitious. Their working relationship will determine Nepal's political stability and whether it can avoid the political cronyism of the past.
This election was not just about casting votes. It was about standing up to principles and a value system, and respecting the hopes and aspirations of Nepal’s youth. It to push for transparent government and against impunity — including for the gunning down of young Nepalis in cold blood.
<div class="embed-block"><iframe src="https://election-geo-dashboard.pages.dev/" width="100%" height="600" frameborder="0"> </iframe>Live election results as winners of candidates are announced.</div>
CAN DO MAN
Shah got mixed reviews as mayor. He was impulsive and ad hoc, but most people inKathmandu and beyond liked his can-do attitude and unconventional style which stood in sharp contract to the legacy leaders. Over his three year mayorship he showed more maturity and planning capacity.&nbsp;
But he always ran headlong into opposition from the federal government over his urban planning and other initiatives to make Kathmandu more liveable. Coming from a civil and structural engineering background, he was involved in building low-cost housing after the 2015 earthquake.
But his public persona is more tied to his irreverent rap lyrics that stood up for the marginalised underprivileged in society, while exposing the high-handedness and apathy of the state. But this also exposed contradictions because he also used his own municipal guards to beat and chase away street vendors and squatters.
But there is no doubt that a combination of the sharp messaging in his rap videos amplified by the algorithms of social media ignited Nepal’s youth to rise up. It was more about optics and emotion than policy and strategy.
He studied Kathmandu district for five years, visiting experts in every field before announcing his independent candidacy for mayor in 2022. Many like me in his own constitunecy did not know who he was and where he came from.
He is a year younger than my architect son, and I saw in him a reflection of my own son’s commitment to serving the nation. I voted for him to be mayor despite his sometimes erratic behaviour, which could be attributed to his youth.
The best sign of his strategic planning, which unsettled septuagenarian and octogenarian politicians, is the he did not grab the first easy option of becoming prime minister in September when GenZ activists offered him the post.&nbsp;
Joining RSP was a masterstroke, as was his challenge to Oli in Jhapa to project national branding. He needed a party platform and Lamichhane needed a popular prime ministerial persona since he himself could not hold the post.
Shah has shown the capacity to take risks when he believes the value justifies the action for the country. Now, he will have to show more strategic thinking on a national scale, as well as understand the delicate geopolitics of Nepal.&nbsp;
He must rise above the kind of crude social media posts that earned him followers on X, but did nothing to erase his erratic and impulsive image.&nbsp;
Some assume that behind his trademark RayBan shades is a closet dictator, and his past remarks about Hitler are still up on social media. He has in the past shown impatience with criticism, unleashing supporters on social media to troll detractors.&nbsp;
Even so, the public seems willing to place their hope on an educated young man with integrity and a proven record for planning at the helm. By tomorrow it will be clear whether the hope Nepalis have held has been fulfilled, and the coming years will show if the RSP will lead Nepalis to a better future.
The voters seem to have shown the door even to the NC despite the fact that under Gagan Thapa, the party had turned a new leaf. A strong government under Prime Minister Balendra Shah heading a carefully selected cabinet and a strong opposition of the NC, UML and other parties for check and balance may be just what we need for a stable Nepal.&nbsp;
Nepalis have collectively always shown maturity in elections. This time they have given a resounding endorsement for integrity and for good governance.

Bells ring all over Nepal

After Thursday’s election, Nepalis are in a wait-and-watch mode. The Election Commission says counting ballot papers will be expedited this time, and the results for the First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) will start being declared within days. In 2022, it took three weeks for the final results to be tallied.&nbsp;
But winning an election is only half the challenge for the parties, forming a government under parliamentary politics is like a complicated mathematical equation.&nbsp;
In 2022, the Nepali Congress (NC) emerged as the biggest party, winning 89 seats. But the UML with 78 seats and the Maoists with 32 formed a minority government. In fact, Sher Bahadur Deuba did not become PM then despite leading the biggest party in Parliament.
This time, there is an unmistakeable Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) wave led by its prime ministerial candidate, Balendra Shah. Besides his own popularity, Shah represents change which most Nepalis are clamouring for after decades of corrupt and feckless coalitions that did not deliver.&nbsp;
The past months of campaigning has seen massive youth engagement on social media through memes, AI clips, and viral images. Digital content that appeals to emotion rather than policy debate between candidates shape electoral outcomes in Nepal and elsewhere. &nbsp;
Shah represents GenZ aspirations, and was their candidate for prime minister. It was only when he declined that Sushila Karki was nominated. None of the political parties in the recent past -- new, old, or revolutionary — have won enough seats to go it alone.&nbsp;
The most recent majority government was formed by the short-lived Communist Party of Nepal after the UML-Maoist merger in 2022. But that rare two-thirds majority collapsed after a power struggle between K P Oli and Pushpa Kamal Dahal. The only party to have won a majority was the NC in the 1991 and 1999 elections. But it is near impossible for it to repeat this success now, even with Gagan Thapa's rebranding of the party.&nbsp;
We have compiled these possible scenarios for election outcome in order of likelihood:
RSP gets a majority
RSP hits the magic 138 to form a government entirely on its own. Balendra Shah wins Jhapa-5, and becomes the new prime minister at 35, the youngest ever to hold the office in Nepal. But danger lurks: there could be a personality clash between Shah and Lamichhane who are both equally ambitious. History could repeat itself.&nbsp;
RSP wins but does not get a majority
RSP is likely to sweep the most votes, but what if it does not secure enough seats for a majority? It would need a coalition partner and Nepali Communist Party (NCP) under Pushpa Kamal Dahal could fit the bill, but only if it has the numbers. The RSP is not likely to team up with the UML or NC.
The NCP is relatively untainted by the 8 September events, and also has former UML defectors like Madhav Kumar Nepal and Bhim Rawal who could bag their rural vote banks. After all, there are no permanent foes in politics. If the royalist RPP and Tarai-based Janata Samajwadi have enough seats, those could be options for the RSP. &nbsp;
NC is second
The NC under the new leadership of Gagan Thapa could become the second biggest force and form a government with RSP in a power-sharing deal with Shah. This would be the most stable scenario since the RSP and NC have competent and idealistic young technocrats. Thapa himself embodies a strong combination of both old and new politics to navigate the system for more efficient government. But then Thapa and the RSP's Rabi Lamichhane do not get along.
NC and NCP form a majority
If the NC becomes the largest party but not by a big margin, it could join up with the NCP and Ujyalo. Teaming up with the UML would likely face backlash with the party and outside. If Gagan Thapa becomes prime minister he will face internal pressure from both Deuba loyalists. Same old story.
Minority coalition of NC, UML and NCP
RSP becomes the first party but does not get a majority, paving the way for the three legacy parties to cobble together a minority government. While this is possible in Nepal’s parliamentary system, such a scenario is likely to lead to more instability and dissatisfaction among young Nepalis demanding change, and even trigger street unrest. &nbsp;

electoral-alliance

Voters cynical about electoral alliances

Coalition calculation

Sarlahi-4 nervously watches ballot count

Nepal election live results

Bells ring all over Nepal

The magic 138