<img width="2048" height="1282" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114101144/63720e1d9c7e80680e0b78fcjpeg.jpg" alt=""/>While many countries <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-reopening-for-tourists/">lift mask mandates and coronavirus restrictions</a>, Hong Kong and China are reeling from an Omicrons surge. Britain, the US and some parts of Europe are seeing a new spike in cases. In Nepal, the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/omnipresent-omicron-starts-to-lose-its-edge/">public is determined to believe</a> that the worst is over. But there is a danger that China's Omicron surge will bring out a new variant. Hong Kong's Centre for Health Protection, Department of Health has urged all residents to avoid non-essential travel. The territory may soon impose a lockdown, just as China has isolated entire provinces. The surge in China and Hong Kong has been attributed to low natural immunity because of the zero-Covid strategy, the relative inefficacy of Chinese vaccines to Omicron, and the emergence of the Omicron BA.2 sub-variant.Meanwhile cases of a new hybrid strain that is as transmissible as Omicron and as serious as Delta, dubbed the 'Deltacron', has broken out in the United States and Europe.The WHO warned this week that the world is “only half-way” through the pandemic, and although news of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/ukraine-crisis-hits-nepal-economy-hard/">Russia’s invasion of Ukraine</a> has overshadowed Covid-19, the virus is still spreading in unpredictable ways.Given all this, it may be prudent for Nepal not to lift all vaccine restrictions just yet. Masks and avoiding crowds must still be enforced to spread a future surge. Even though, as we have seen in the last two years, new variants can easily come in <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-on-high-alert-for-omicron/">from travelers and spread in the community</a>.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/the-story-of-nepals-first-covid-19-fatality/">The story of Nepal’s first COVID-19 fatality</a>, Laxmi BasnetA number of European countries have relaxed restrictions and several states of the US have moved to eliminate mask mandates after a new guideline by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). The hope is that the pandemic is giving way to an endemic. An endemic has been described by the CDC as a ‘constant presence and/or usual prevalence of a disease or infectious agent in a population within a geographic area’. "We're almost there, it is now the beginning of the end, at least in the UK," Prof Julian Hiscox at the University of Liverpool told the BBC recently. "I think life in 2022 will be almost back to before the pandemic.” CDC director Rochelle Walensky echoed this, saying earlier this year that the pandemic is likely to become endemic in the US and around the world. Virologist Ian Jones of the University of Reading in the UK also said recently: “There is now no doubt that Omicron is attenuated and taking as a step toward endemicity”. Medical historians argue that most pandemics last between two and a half to three and a half years. Without a clear explanation and vaccination, the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/remembering-a-pandemic-100-years-ago/">1918 Spanish pandemic</a> that infected one-third of the world’s population and claimed over 50 million lives fizzled out in 1919. An analysis suggests that the Omicron variant has now changed the shape of the global pandemic and this is likely to lead to the 'endemic world'. Chris Murray of the University of Washington takes the fact that despite the surge in infections, hospitalisation and fatality rates are still low as indication that we are now entering an endemic phase.Stephen Kissler at the Harvard T H Chan School of Public Health has been quoted as predicting: “Omicron will soon become endemic much like flu." Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/survive-revive-thrive/">Survive, revive, thrive</a>, EditorialWhat is puzzling scientists is why Hong Kong’s fatality rate is so high, while Omicron has not killed people at the same rate elsewhere. The risk of reinfection from Omicron is estimated to be 5–fold higher and this poses a danger to the high risk groups, elderly and to those not yet infected.Epidemiologists warn that the worst may yet to come of new variants emerge from the spread in China. Spreading to other parts of the world not yet infected to Omicron, this could have a devastating effect. Nevertheless, turning back the pages of the history of pandemics, we have seen that viruses naturally mutate and slowly evolve into an endemic phase that circulates at more manageable levels. The 1918 <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/preparing-for-a-no-normal/">influenza strain may never have disappeared, and continued to mutate and circulate</a> to this day. What we need to develop and adopt is <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/why-is-there-vaccine-hesitancy-in-nepal/">sustainable coping strategies, including vaccinations</a>. What are critically missing and paying least attention to is social interventions such as behavioural change, communication for mask wearing and avoiding crowds for the near future.Medical historians also agree that the pandemic ends socially before it ends medically. And proof of that is Nepal, where mot people seem to think that they no long have to worry about the pandemic. What if the virus has decided not to enter an endemic phase just yet?Mohita Upreti is Journalism student at St. Xavier's College, she regularly contributes to the College’s monthly newsletter - The Xavierian Chronicles.Read more: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/why-is-there-vaccine-hesitancy-in-nepal/">Why is there vaccine hesitancy in Nepal?</a> Sonia Awale

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From pandemic to epidemic to endemic

In 1966, the <a href="https://www.who.int/news-room/detail/13-12-2019-who-commemorates-the-40th-anniversary-of-smallpox-eradication" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">World Health Organization (WHO)</a> launched a worldwide campaign to eradicate smallpox. The aim was ‘zeropox’ -- not just control of the disease, but its complete elimination.After an aggressive campaign run by Nepal's autocratic government, the country saw its last case ever in 1975. The program should be celebrated. But what should also not be forgotten is that it sometimes resorted to heavy handed methods. Balancing public safety and individual rights was not easy.Historically, smallpox had been one of the world's biggest and most terrifying killers. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/the-smallpox-virus-in-british-india/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">In South Asia, the disease attacked young adults and children</a>, those born since the previous epidemic, leaving many disfigured or blind. In Nepal in the 19th  century, smallpox left few communities unscathed, and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/smallpox-politics-and-power-in-kathmandu/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">even killed a king</a>.In 1966, smallpox still plagued 31 countries, annually infecting 10-15 million people and killing 2 million. Two areas caused the most concern: the horn of Africa and South Asia, including Nepal.Part I: <a style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/big-story-of-small-pox-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Big story of smallpox in Nepal</a>Part II: <a style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/the-smallpox-virus-in-british-india/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">The smallpox virus in British India</a>Part III: <a style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/smallpox-politics-and-power-in-kathmandu/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Smallpox, politics and power in Kathmandu</a>Part V: <a style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/viruses-past-present-and-future/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Viruses past, present and future</a>		
							<figure><img width="1282" height="1386" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022112916110/63861ea09c7e80680e0ccdd8jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Smallpox vaccination statue outside the World Health Organization headquarter entrance in Geneva.</figcaption></figure>Nepal, a WHO official wrote in the early 1960s, ‘must be considered as one of the areas most highly endemic for smallpox in South East Asia’. In 1958, a wave of smallpox hit Kathmandu. A 1965 survey revealed that <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/big-story-of-small-pox-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">16% of the Valley's total population had struggled with the virus at some point in their lives</a>. Those were the ones the disease hadn't killed.Each year a few imported cases appeared in the western hills. Don Messerschmidt describes a late 1963 outbreak along the hulakibato in Lamjung, but the main problem areas were the Kathmandu Valley and the Tarai, particularly the eastern plains because of heavy cross-border movement.<a href="https://www.who.int/features/2010/smallpox/en/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">WHO and the Nepal government launched a pilot program</a> in 1962 in Kathmandu Valley using new freeze dried vaccine, an improved version of the one Edward Jenner had devised in the 1790s, but got disappointing results.After two and a half years, only 30% of Valley residents were protected. WHO blamed ‘administrative problems and the religious and mundane objections of some sections of the population to vaccination’.In 1966, the program expanded countrywide, with new commitment and revised procedures, including better record keeping to prevent double counting. In 1971 the program started month-long mass vaccination campaigns. Each year for four straight years, several thousand temporary staff vaccinated 6 million Nepalis. Between 1967 and 1975, 39 million Nepalis got vaccinated or re-vaccinated.Another new strategy proved a game changer: aggressive surveillance and containment. Previously, officials had prioritised vaccinations. They had not traced and mapped infections, and thus did not know how many people had the virus and where. In 1971, a WHO official later wrote, ‘vigorous surveillance became the rule’.Surveillance meant routine house-to-house searches. Instead of waiting for cases to be reported, program workers went looking for them. Containment meant vaccinating and revaccinating the entire population near a newly discovered case. This was erring on the safe side by casting a broad net. The program also intensified tracing, detecting infection origins in a remarkable 95% of cases.The aggressive surveillance and containment methods delivered results. ‘It appeared that transmission had been interrupted,’ a WHO official noted later. Nepal had devised ‘a new and surprisingly effective tactic’.But then came a setback: ‘a tidal wave’ of new cases with nearly 2,000 new infections in 240 separate outbreaks. Three of every four of these cases were imports from Uttar Pradesh and Bihar in India where smallpox proved particularly recalcitrant. Of Nepal's 12 million population at the time, 90% lived within 100km of these Indian states.The program responded with more vaccination campaigns, surveillance, and containment, making steady progress. To address outbreaks in Morang the Nepal smallpox program in 1975 initiated a ‘watchdog’ system, a tactic recently devised in India. Staff were posted at the houses of infected people to ensure that they did not leave and that no unvaccinated person entered. Cash rewards were given to citizens and staff reporting new cases.In April 1975, Nepal saw its last case. A disease that had plagued Nepalis for centuries was gone. Looking back, WHO officials saw the surveillance and containment program as the key.‘The shift in strategy in 1971, laying great emphasis on surveillance-containment, was largely responsible for the success of the Smallpox Eradication Programme in Nepal,’ wrote the program's director in a 1977 wrap up report. ‘It is possible that transmission would have been interrupted earlier if the watchguard system had been adopted during 1974.’In many ways Nepal's eradication of smallpox was a heroic victory. The global smallpox program's director applauded Nepal's ‘remarkable accomplishments’. This narrative is not inaccurate but it is not the whole story.To begin with, smallpox eradication owed a great deal to biology. Compared to other diseases, smallpox was simply easier to eradicate. It was easy to see and diagnose (no asymptomatic infections) and did not re-infect people once gone. The disease's painful symptoms prevented movement, slowing transmission. Moreover, the vaccine was easy to administer and extremely effective. There was no virus reservoir among animals re-injecting the disease into human society again and again.Diseases like malaria and polio had far more natural advantages, and have proven much harder to eradicate globally.‘Without the particular characteristics of smallpox and the smallpox vaccine,’ historian Randall Packard has observed, ‘the disease would have been much more difficult to conquer, and the campaign would, in all likelihood, have failed. As it was, it only succeeded by the thinnest of margins.’One particular challenge was how to handle Nepalis who resisted vaccination. In the eastern Tarai, many people, particularly indigenous groups, held what a WHO report described as 'religious objections to vaccination’.WHO said this area became 'the scene of many problems of containment’. In Kathmandu, some Newar groups used to 'strongly object' to vaccination. In Kailali, some Tharus 'resisted vaccination for religious reasons'.Historian Susan Heydon notes that program workers often unjustifiably dismissed the concerns of Nepalis who resisted vaccination. Those who hesitated, she notes, were blamed as superstitious, derided as ‘backward and uneducated’.Instead, she faults the WHO program itself for not doing enough to educate the general population about the benefits of vaccination. She also notes that the program often administered vaccinations during hours next to impossible for ordinary working people.Eradication program workers also occasionally used unnecessary coercion. Coerced vaccinations were not common worldwide or in South Asia. But as historian Packard notes, there was a ‘tendency for aid workers to view themselves as somehow empowered to do whatever it takes to fulfill their mission, and to disregard local customs and laws’. In India and Bangladesh, historian Paul Greenough discovered that 'heavy-handed methods were sometimes relied upon'. On one occasion in Bihar in 1975, for example, health officials accompanied by police arrived at a tribal person's house by jeep at midnight, broke down the door, held down family members, and forcibly vaccinated them. Mandatory vaccinations and re-vaccinations as part of broad containment efforts sometimes sparked 'chaos' in villages.'Encounters with government vaccinators,' Greenough observes, were 'never about immunisation alone.' Religious, caste, and gender dynamics shaped interactions, as did ill will from previous health campaigns.One American health worker in India later recalled how a sense of unbridled self-righteousness led him to mistreat people. 'One of the rules was that everybody gets vaccinated. I was awful in my conviction of purity of purpose -- in breaking down doors and vaccinating crying women, etc.' To a large degree, the ends seemed to justify the means.Official reports, Greenough writes, often dismissed resistance and underreported coercion. He wishes there had been much more training for healthworkers and broader,more careful education for the public.In Nepal, one foreign smallpox fieldworker described how health workers sometimes had to search for Nepalis hiding from them in fear:‘... a good natured room to room search of houses with flashlights, accompanied by the village leader, would detect adults and children hiding under beds, in chests, large wicker baskets, and even in large clay storage vessels. However, the search was done as a game of hide and seek, with laughter after people were found and vaccinated, such as in one particular case where lifting the cover of a large wicker basket revealed two children hiding inside.’This may have been seemed like a game to health workers, but probably not to those Nepali men, women, and children with unknown government strangers searching for them. They seemed terrified.In the name of containing smallpox, a global health problem and an old scourge in Nepal, in the late 1960s and 1970s Nepal's government had tremendous authority to monitor and search Nepal's population. Maintaining public safety certainly justifies strong action, but the unnecessary infringement of individual rights and liberties must also be avoided as well.  This is the third in a <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/big-story-of-small-pox-in-nepal/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/big-story-of-small-pox-in-nepal/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1588753218027000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEp4BFSGiWvId09CsLCgnF31j8F-w">series of articles</a> about the history of disease in Nepal. The fifth installment will look at what Nepal can learn from past epidemics in dealing with this one.  <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/how-chitwan-was-opened,4159" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/how-chitwan-was-opened,4159&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1588753218027000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGtSUyejPwwFFhYdaZjZohWFJUIQw">Tom Robertson</a>, PhD, is researching the environmental history of Kathmandu Valley.

Tom Robertson

How Nepal eradicated the smallpox virus

The newly-formed Himalayan Art Council is set to launch Nepal’s National Art Protection Platform that seeks to preserve <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/the-history-of-heritage">Nepal’s unique cultural heritage </a>using<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/artificial-censorship"> AI-powered tools</a>. The Council seeks to safeguard <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/nepali-art-going-places">Nepali art works</a> from neglect, theft and counterfeiting as well as preserve existing artwork and celebrate living masters by giving them a cultural space to continue the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/sacred-survival">sacred art traditions</a>. "We are introducing a new digital platform designed to preserve, verify and elevate <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/nepals-new-generation-of-alternative-artists">Nepal’s art for generations to come,</a>” says a statement from the Council, adding that the digital platform will use AI told for authentication and blockchain to keep track of works of art. Artists can now be protected by <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/multimedia/ayo-ai?fbclid=IwAR1uwmTVq4gUB70ljfRezjzukD9ArWXPuMnUikopeQ8PoiZMjicToPSwhKE&amp;=1">AI tools</a> that detect forgeries, identify their work even when unsigned, and ensure they receive proper recognition and credit. The archives will be searchable with translated inscription and interactive guides. Says curator Meena Lama: “AI and blockchains are tools that give us the power to detect fakes and identify unsigned paintings and track every piece. With these tools we can restore trust, secure authorship and give artists the dignity they deserve.”  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250514170544_2ab58f6313c0458f75114a692b0016bd9efb3b59d5f8f07f0da72e1e37b82f53.jpg" data-media-id="editor_6" data-image-id="20250514170544_2ab58f6313c0458f75114a692b0016bd9efb3b59d5f8f07f0da72e1e37b82f53" data-rendition-name="original" width="1300" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Artwork at the Traditional Art Exhibition at Patan Museum."> <figcaption>Artwork at the Traditional Art Exhibition at Patan Museum.</figcaption> </figure>  The Council is also holding an exhibition of Nepali cultural masterpieces with 50 historical <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/Buzz-the-art,671">thangka and paubha </a>by past masters and <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/review/between-the-sacred-and-everyday">contemporary works by current artists</a>. This curated collection is a living tribute to <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/when-yaks-go-so-does-culture">Himalayan culture</a> with economic depictions of deities, mandala and sacred narratives. The exhibition at <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/multimedia/a-portal-into-patan-s-past-and-present">Patan Museum</a> also provides an opportunity to meet painters and custodians of art and culture. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/review/golden-deities">Golden deities</a>, Sewa Bhattarai ‘The exhibition is only the first step in a long journey to ensure that Nepali art is no just seen but fully understood, <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/Narratives-of-Faith-and-Memory-Remembering-the-Lost-Sculptures-of-Kathmandu-exhibition,987">protected and remembered</a>,’ the Council says. Artist Kailash K Shrestha of Artudio has spent decades promoting thankha and paubha traditions because of their beauty and devotional meaning. But he also says artists are underpaid, exploited and ignored. He adds, “AI and blockchain are not just buzzwords, they are powerful tools that can protect Nepal’s artists from fraud, verify authenticity and build a permanent record of provenance.” Traditional Art Exhibition Till 17 May Patan Museum

Digital protection for Nepal’s art

India and Pakistan are twins separated at birth. Tensions between them have been at a hair trigger ever since independence and has erupted into full scale conflict at least four times in the past 80 years.
The 22 April terrorist attack in Kashmir that killed 25 Indian tourists and a Nepali citizen, threatens to escalate tension between the two nuclear-armed nations. India has squarely blamed Pakistan for the attacks, and Prime Minister Narendra Modi has given his military “operational freedom” to respond. Pakistan has said it has credible intelligence of an Indian military strike and its officials have promised a “full spectrum” response — a code for a <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/thinking-the-thinkable">nuclear retaliation</a>.
For Nepal, the killing of its national in the Pahalgam attack comes as another stark reminder that in conflicts from Afghanistan to Iraq, from <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/how-to-agree-an-armistice-in-ukraine">Ukraine</a> to Israel, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/10-nepalis-from-one-town-fighting-in-ukraine">Nepalis are getting caught in the crossfire</a>. The last time full-scale fighting broke out between <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/peacemongers-at-india-pakistan-border">India and Pakistan</a> on Kargil in 1999, at least 22<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/india-s-trial-by-fire-for-soldiers-from-nepal?%27%5C%22="> Nepalis fighting for the Indian Army</a> were killed in action.
Three of Nepal’s immediate neighbours (China, India, Pakistan) have nuclear weapons, and they do not have good relations. With China supplying weapons, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/war-and-warming">missile technology</a> and other support to Pakistan, this triangular friction could set off a regional conflagration.&nbsp;
<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-022-00573-0" target="_blank">Research at Rutgers University</a> has calculated that even a week-long tactical nuclear exchange between India and Pakistan would throw up so much smoke and debris into the atmosphere that it would block out the sun for years, and lead to a collapse of the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/grow-nourish-sustain-together-world-food-day">global food system</a>. This does not take into account the radioactive fallout that prevailing winds would blow up to <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/lives-on-the-line-in-the-himalaya">the Himalaya</a>, contaminating glaciers that are the sources of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/saving-what-is-left-of-himalayan-rivers">Asia’s main rivers</a>.
The impact of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/climate-breakdown-linked-to-thame-flood">climate breakdown </a>on High Asia was already ringing alarm bells about its <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/himalayan-icecap-melting-faster-than-thought">shrinking ice cap</a> reducing the dry season flow of water downstream. Water was going to be the next strategic commodity, geopolitical experts warned, and the next wars in Asia would be over water.
That water war is already happening. India retaliated to the Kashmir attack by suspending the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/24/world/asia/india-pakistan-indus-waters-treaty.html" target="_blank">Indus Waters Treaty</a> of 1960 mediated by the World Bank that has withstood at least three wars between India and Pakistan. The treaty gives India control over the three eastern tributaries of the Indus (<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beas_River" target="_blank">Beas</a>, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ravi_River" target="_blank">Ravi</a> and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sutlej" target="_blank">Sutlej</a>), while Pakistan got water from the Indus and two of its western tributaries (<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indus_River" target="_blank">Indus</a>, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chenab_River" target="_blank">Chenab</a> and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jhelum_River" target="_blank">Jhelum</a>.
Pakistan was assured of 70% of the annual flow, and India could use a reasonable amount of water for<a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=15231"> irrigation and hydropower</a>. &nbsp;Within days of its threat, India stopped water flowing down to Pakistan from the Chenab river and is reportedly preparing to do the same on the Jhelum.
The sabre-rattling has reached a crescendo. Besides threats and counter-threats there are also symbolic drills, with the Indian Air Force practicing landing on an expressway in Uttar Pradesh by its Rafale, Su-30 and Jaguar fighter jets to demonstrate ‘operational readiness’. In response Pakistan test-fired its Abdali ballistic missile that can carry a nuclear warhead and has a range of 450km.&nbsp;
The danger is that with ultra-nationalist rhetoric and the beating the war drums by both sides, India’s government and Pakistan’s military may have to ‘do something’ to appease domestic public opinion. But any tactical strike, an artillery exchange, or territorial incursion could quickly escalate out of control.
Expecting an Indian retaliation for the Pahalgam killings, Pakistan is using<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/interfaith-collaboration-for-nuclear-disarmament"> nuclear deterrence </a>and warning of “catastrophic consequences”. The two neighbours came close to a nuclear exchange in 2019 after an attack on the Indian military in Kashmir, and prompt international intervention led by the United States cooled tensions.&nbsp;
This time, the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/trump-shock-wave-hits-nepal">Trump administration</a> is too distracted and not as engaged. Pakistan has denied it was responsible for the terrorist attack and called on Washington to stop a possible Indian retaliation. India and Pakistan have stopped overflights by each other’s airlines, and some international carriers have even stopped flying over Pakistan fearing an air war.
Washington, Beijing, the UN and the EU have all urged restraint. Iran, which has good relations with both India and Pakistan has sent its foreign minister to urge both countries not to go into a tit-for-tat war. Iran has its own nuclear flashpoint to worry about with tensions in Israel, &nbsp;Yemen and Syria.
India and Pakistan both share similar problems of joblessness, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/why-nepal-s-poverty-rate-is-stuck">poverty </a>and <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/climate-change-new-threat-to-nepal-s-rhinos">environmental threats</a>. Neither side needs the threat of a senseless war, and we in the neighbourhood do not need it either.&nbsp;
Kunda Dixit
This Editorial is brought to you by <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/" target="_blank">Nepali Times</a>, in collaboration with <a href="https://inpsjapan.com/en/" target="_blank">INPS Japan</a> and <a href="https://sgi-peace.org/" target="_blank">Soka Gakkai International</a>, in consultative status with UN ECOSOC.

Nukes in the neighbourhood

Most Nepalis thought they had seen the last of it after <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/11-56-25-april-2015-wkc9q2an">the 25 April 7.8 magnitude </a>earthquake ten years ago. But the Himalaya had more surprises in store. On 12 May, another 7.3 magnitude tremor that some said was an aftershock, but was strong enough to itself be a major earthquake, struck Dolakha.&nbsp; Not many people had heard of Singati till then — a cluster of houses by the Tama Kosi River along a narrow gorge that is the roadhead to Rolwaling Valley.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250508110520_57b6e316656851f71eca56ca6f98d9bbcc820c1a00d62af3c990725b4361244d.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20250508110520_57b6e316656851f71eca56ca6f98d9bbcc820c1a00d62af3c990725b4361244d" data-rendition-name="original" width="1000" height="1500" loading="lazy" alt="Climate magnifies earthquake risk in Nepal village NT"> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250508110520_016534fb2b6a79957402281cda768efb83a146786377e39e11df3e251d37159e.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20250508110520_016534fb2b6a79957402281cda768efb83a146786377e39e11df3e251d37159e" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Climate magnifies earthquake risk in Nepal village NT"> </figure>  It was here that dozens were killed on 25 April in the first earthquake. Hundreds of <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/Singati-rising-from-rubble-rebuilding,3703">Singati survivors</a> had lined up for food and relief supplies in the morning of 12 May when the second earthquake triggered a rock slide that buried a nearby camp. At least 50 people were killed. &nbsp; Three hours later, a US Marine Corps UH-1Y Venom helicopter landed in a nearby cornfield to pick up the wounded, and flew off. The aircraft lost contact with air traffic control in Kathmandu and its wreckage was located high on Kalinchok four days later. Six American servicemen, two Nepal Army soldiers, and five wounded civilians from Singati were killed. Today, Singati bears little physical scar of the multiple tragedies that struck the town ten years ago. Most <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/multimedia/bungamati-builds-back">houses have been rebuilt</a> as urban-style concrete structures, and Singati has become an economic hub on the road leading up to several hydropower plants and a<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/off-the-beaten-trek-in-nepal"> popular trekking destination</a>.&nbsp; The town looks less like a village and more like a suburb of the Dolakha district headquarter of Charikot, 47km away.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250508110520_196f341d1df1403ba133e5dfeb837eec20d7cbcb4c8c56b17cc5598810de5df2.jpg" data-media-id="editor_6" data-image-id="20250508110520_196f341d1df1403ba133e5dfeb837eec20d7cbcb4c8c56b17cc5598810de5df2" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Climate magnifies earthquake risk in Nepal village NT"> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250508110524_ae66c4a92430f67db51b5e11e017059eedfbac4cb18c8e073f2a50cca1fe904e.jpg" data-media-id="editor_7" data-image-id="20250508110524_ae66c4a92430f67db51b5e11e017059eedfbac4cb18c8e073f2a50cca1fe904e" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Climate magnifies earthquake risk in Nepal village NT"> </figure>  “The demand for construction material, cement, iron rods and bricks peaked after the earthquakes,” says Suresh Khadka, who owns a hardware business here and now supplies material to the 456MW Upper Tama Kosi hydropower project that is undergoing repairs after it was damaged by a landslide last year. The demand for cement boomed since most residents believe, not necessarily correctly, that <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/in-a-disastrous-state">cement houses are safer</a>. Although Khadka did well selling construction material after the earthquake, he worries that most new structures do not follow seismic-resistant building codes.&nbsp; The construction boom financed by bank loans has in turn forced many from Singati to <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/making-overseas-migration-better">migrate overseas for work</a> so they can service their debt.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250508110524_50caa4530bd5ff9120cf7ab70a62173846d337ef448ff8bac339f3faa375a9e2.jpg" data-media-id="editor_10" data-image-id="20250508110524_50caa4530bd5ff9120cf7ab70a62173846d337ef448ff8bac339f3faa375a9e2" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Climate magnifies earthquake risk in Nepal village NT"> <figcaption>Suresh Khadka</figcaption> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250508110520_ef8b7d3993fc3b5df852bbf952feb3fbabc96d6883b0d5eb74ee5c60f4123b83.jpg" data-media-id="editor_11" data-image-id="20250508110520_ef8b7d3993fc3b5df852bbf952feb3fbabc96d6883b0d5eb74ee5c60f4123b83" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Climate magnifies earthquake risk in Nepal village NT"> <figcaption>Phu Doma Sherpa (right)</figcaption> </figure>  “My family had no choice but to borrow money to rebuild our home since the government compensation was not enough, and ten years later we are still paying off the loan,” says Phu Doma Sherpa, 60. Because of the shortage of qualified masons and proper seismic engineering, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/structural-problems">many of the buildings are of questionable building standards </a>and the traditional architecture has been abandoned, admits Kul Bahadur Budathoki, deputy chair of the municipality. “But these buildings were more expensive than what the government grants could cover, many people here are heavily in debt and the men have <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/every-day-is-closer-to-pay-day">migrated to the Gulf to pay their loans</a>,” Budathoki says.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250508110520_32f89e97b7e757fc9286c0bbb671f48ea8d4468e9634fa646d7247c650ad8480.jpg" data-media-id="editor_14" data-image-id="20250508110520_32f89e97b7e757fc9286c0bbb671f48ea8d4468e9634fa646d7247c650ad8480" data-rendition-name="original" width="1501" height="1079" loading="lazy" alt="Climate magnifies earthquake risk in Nepal village NT"> <figcaption>Kul Bahadur Budathoki</figcaption> </figure>  Singati is in a multi-hazard zone. The <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/Singati,3091">12 May 2015 earthquake </a>could have led to the collapse of Nepal’s largest glacial lake, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/stairway-to-heaven">Tso Rolpa</a>, upstream. Due to global warming, the glacier has turned into an expanding lake 3.5km long, and its collapse would have unleashed a catastrophic Himalayan tsunami down the Tama Kosi Valley, with Singati directly in its path. Singati has literally risen from the ashes of 2015, with its residents beginning to recover from the trauma and financial toll. But it is not out of danger as <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/climate-breakdown-linked-to-thame-flood">climate breakdown </a>magnifies the risk from future earthquakes.

Climate magnifies earthquake risk in Nepal village

The streets of Patan are alive this month with lavender jacaranda trees under rain-washed skies as <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/the-red-god-rises-again-in-patan">the chariot of Rato Matsyendranath</a> is pulled across town. This is the festival of the rain god, and inevitably the heavens opened up and pre-monsoon showers pelted the chariot as it started being pulled in Pulchok last week. Thousands of devotees, onlookers and the chariot procession organisers thronged the streets on the first day last week. The rhythmic cymbals and drums exuded a vibrant energy as the enormous four wheels turned and the chariot lurched.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025051007050_81df97744db16f732a419dc1f1579d235ce3df37642b078f50b83bd4bd026688.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="2025051007050_81df97744db16f732a419dc1f1579d235ce3df37642b078f50b83bd4bd026688" data-rendition-name="original" width="1000" height="1503" loading="lazy" alt="Divine chariot"> </figure>  The<a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/Red-rain-god,3141"> red rain god</a> has Hindu and Buddhist antecedents, alternatively called Bungadya and<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/kathmandu-s-gravity-defying-chariot-festival"> Karunamaya</a> — reflecting Kathmandu Valley’s syncretic mixture of the two religions.&nbsp; “Bungadya is a profoundly <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/12-full-opinion/marketing-the-intangible">intangible form of heritage</a>,” explains heritage expert Monalisa Maharjan. “It embodies traditional knowledge,<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/multimedia/reviving-nepal-s-craft"> artisanal skills passed down through generations</a>. Local communities and specific families have specified roles in being custodians of the heritage, ensuring their survival over the centuries.” There are many legends and stories about this annual tradition. Lichhavi king Narendra Dev is supposed to have brought Rato Matsyendranath from Assam to Kathmandu Valley to convince Guru Gorakhnath to lift a spell that created a two-year drought in Kathmandu.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250510050520_347a9a398f8a9abc4a7fb4e2774fde8264cccbdce8bdab23851ab3f0e73c3e8a.jpg" data-media-id="editor_6" data-image-id="20250510050520_347a9a398f8a9abc4a7fb4e2774fde8264cccbdce8bdab23851ab3f0e73c3e8a" data-rendition-name="original" width="1503" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Divine chariot"> </figure>  Matsyendranath was Gorakhnath’s mentor, and upon seeing him, the serpents were released, unleashing the rains. The chariot festival honours the return of this life-giving rain. The deity is seen as an icon for thriving agriculture, t<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/before-the-next-monsoon">he arrival of monsoon</a> showers, and the welfare of the community. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/the-reign-of-the-god-of-rain">The reign of the god of rain</a>, Vidhu Prakash Kayastha Till this day, the Rato Matsyendranath festival is no ordinary celebration. Patan does not sleep for a month as the chariot is pulled through various neighbourhoods. It unfolds at a state level with the president (formerly the king) attending the climax of the Bhoto Jatra in Jawalakhel later this month.&nbsp; The intergenerational transmission of tradition is unique in the world, and the reason the festival is one of the most vibrant cultural expressions that thrives despite inroads of modernity. The other unique aspect is that it is a transnational festival, binding Patan with Guwahati in the Indian state of Assam.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025051005058_8bc685ada13045d863b28e3eed91c931da2b510714586af6fd7eb5d1e298a24a.jpg" data-media-id="editor_9" data-image-id="2025051005058_8bc685ada13045d863b28e3eed91c931da2b510714586af6fd7eb5d1e298a24a" data-rendition-name="original" width="1000" height="1503" loading="lazy" alt="Divine chariot"> </figure>  “Unlike Nepal, where the deity commands grandeur and devotion, many in Assam are unaware of Rato Matsyendranath,” says Khagen Sharma of Gauhati University, which convened <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-assam-connection-revived">a symposium in February in Guwahati on the rain god</a>. Attending was a delegation led by Lalitpur Mayor Chiribabu Maharjan, organisers of the festival, and builders of the chariot. After the symposium, a committee was formed to explore and revive the tradition in Assam as well. Although the team had planned to visit Nepal this month, logistical challenges delayed the trip. Still, there are plans to build a Guru Matsyendranath statue in Assam to reestablish regular worship practices in the Guwahati shrine.&nbsp; The vines used to build the chariot in Patan are sourced from the jungles of Assam. But Sharma notes that in recent years unclear regulations have blocked the official import of the vines, although they are still brought to Nepal informally. The <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/makers-of-machhindranath,2204">chariot making</a> has also had a taste of modernisation in recent times. In the past, even a single nail or piece of steel was avoided. But over time, the wooden structure, particularly the shaft between the wheels, has been replaced with bronze. When that too proved unstable, metal clamps were introduced, which have become a pragmatic compromise.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250510050524_b2a819a5791612f14c81d30fc393dbd3f99f0c64b90a9110e8b0855d944bfa93.jpg" data-media-id="editor_12" data-image-id="20250510050524_b2a819a5791612f14c81d30fc393dbd3f99f0c64b90a9110e8b0855d944bfa93" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="998" loading="lazy" alt="Divine chariot"> </figure>  Another welcome change is the focus on safety. Builders climbing the chariot’s tower now wear harnesses and there are efforts in crowd control. The most visible change in recent years has been the involvement of Patan’s enthusiastic youth in the festival — the tradition is now passing to a new generation. Says Matsyendranath expert Vidhu Kayastha: “There is more energy, the young people in red t-shirts this year were very organised, these modern touches aren’t diluting our culture, they’re keeping it alive in new forms.” He adds, “We are <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/searching-for-a-homeland-away-from-home">reconnecting with our roots</a>, we have more resources, more awareness than ever before. We must not be swept away by western values that may not serve us, and in some ways, cause more harm than good. We must revive our own culture.”&nbsp;