Droughts are not uncommon in Nepal. In 1983, the monsoon failed and international food aid had to be parachuted into western Nepal to avert famine. The Tarai has long suffered from too much water or too little. This year it is too little. The monsoon arrived ahead of schedule on 1 June, but since then there has been only 20% of the normal precipitation in the eastern Tarai, and only one-third of paddy fields have been planted. On Wednesday, the Cabinet decided to declare Madhes Province a ‘disaster-hit zone’, and Prime Minister K P Oli told Parliament that the Nepal Army could be deployed if necessary to alleviate the water shortage. But government response could be limited since this is a crisis that took years to build up. Politicians have blamed climate breakdown, but the reality is more complicated. Denudation of the fragile Chure Hills, river-bed mining for boulders and sand, and over-extraction of ground water on both sides of the border, are more important factors. Climate change has just made the human-induced causes worse. The farmers of the Madhes are used to “gambling with the monsoon”. Precious paddy seedlings are transplanted, but since so much of the agriculture is rain-fed, failure of the monsoon does not just mean no harvest, but also the loss of seeds that could have been eaten. &nbsp;&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250724040752_bd7bb70c2eda9b421809d178610461f94aee645076cf3bc49900357b6f654d23.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20250724040752_bd7bb70c2eda9b421809d178610461f94aee645076cf3bc49900357b6f654d23" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="1204" loading="lazy" alt="Tarai districts gasp for water NT"> </figure>  Monsoons used to be like clockwork, vegetation in the highlands to the north controlled floods and recharged groundwater, population density and intensive agriculture in India and Nepal had not yet happened. The rains were something to celebrate. Although farmers here remember monsoon failures before, this year’s drought is happening after many years. And it is not just no rain, ponds and water pumps have gone dry, even deep tubewells provide limited water. Cities like Birganj and Janakpur are badly hit. The eight Madhes districts have the highest outmigration rates in Nepal, crop failure and lack of water is surely going to add to the push factor this year. If this is the situation during the monsoon, many wonder what will it be like in the dry season. It is said that those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it. Politicians do not have a magic wand to solve this crisis – it is the result of past mistakes and poor planning. The Prime Minister said on Wednesday that deep tube wells would be drilled to pump water, but this could exacerbate the problem by lowering the groundwater table even further. In the past month, the people of the borderlands are wondering what went wrong. There is not much they can do about global climate breakdown, but a responsive federal or provincial government could take measures to address the immediate crisis and launch mid- and long-term mitigation plans. The Madhes water crisis has exposed the historical inattention and neglect of the federal government. That is nothing new, Kathmandu has always disregarded the plains. Wards, municipalities and cities of the Tarai have had to deal with it on their own, in many places fire brigade tankers have been deployed to ferry drinking water.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250724040752_5894923ae3375fb07caec431fcb5458a49fa92fdfe3b2694c00c2662ce3161e4.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20250724040752_5894923ae3375fb07caec431fcb5458a49fa92fdfe3b2694c00c2662ce3161e4" data-rendition-name="original" width="960" height="720" loading="lazy" alt="Tarai districts gasp for water NT"> </figure>  Some of the reasons for the water emergency here is what has been allowed to happen in the upper catchment in the Mahabharat and Chure. Wells are going dry not just because of farms in Nepal over-pumping – groundwater does not respect national boundaries. Geographically, the plains, hills and mountains may look different but they are part of the same ecosystem, the same river basins. The Himalayan eco-biological domain is not only mountains, it includes the plains. There are also interventions that can be done at the local level. Wetlands, marshes and ponds that used to store monsoon water and recharge the aquifers have been built over in the past decades due to urban expansion.&nbsp; Traditional water conservation practices have been abandoned. Some of these were carried over since 1990 with Village Development Committees, but urban pressure, settlements along the highways &nbsp;and the almost complete disappearance of the dense jungle that used to cover the northern edges of the eight districts. The Tarai now has 53% of Nepal’s population, with Madhes Province alone having 6.5 million people. Private water tanker companies are doing a roaring business. But the water they distribute is neither clean nor cheap. It is enough only for household use, not for agriculture.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250724040752_d068f249d0abd7e2766218de4ae4cb9e953d34fc920bcca1b0902b3abb4d695b.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20250724040752_d068f249d0abd7e2766218de4ae4cb9e953d34fc920bcca1b0902b3abb4d695b" data-rendition-name="original" width="960" height="720" loading="lazy" alt="Tarai districts gasp for water NT"> </figure>  The Tarai used to be Nepal's rice bowl producing surplus grain to feed the whole country. The soil has been poisoned by chemical fertiliser and pesticides, and now there is no water. Loss of forest in the Chure slopes has also brought down sand and reduced the fertility of the soil. There is no reason the Tarai should suffer such a severe water shortage just because the rains fail. There is plenty of water flowing down snowfed Himalayan rivers that can be channeled for agriculture with schemes like the Marin-Kamala Diversion.&nbsp; What has to be understood is that this severe drought in the Madhes is not just the problem of Madhes Province, it is a problem for Nepal. It is an opportunity for Kathmandu to show that it cares for the people of the Tarai, and take steps to address the crisis before public outrage in the plains boils over again.&nbsp; Unless this crisis is tackled on an emergency footing, there is a danger of mass out migration due to the lack of water. Let’s set aside climate breakdown for now, let us tackle the man made causes first. The federal government declaring Madhes Province a disaster zone is a glimmer of home, but the people sweltering in the desiccated plains are waiting for that pronouncement to be followed by action. Chandrakishore is a Birganj-based political commentator who writes this monthly column BORDERLINES in Nepali Times. @kishore_chandra

Chandra Kishore

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Tarai districts gasp for water

Indra Bahadur Rana Magar, 29, boarded a bus with his parents on 30 May from Bardia to Rampur in the western Tarai. During the uncomfortably hot ride, Indra Bahadur sweated profusely. At the village of Hasulia, he could not take the heat anymore and got off and rested under the shade of a tree. He never woke up.&nbsp; “He died in his sleep,” recalled police inspector Lokendra Chand, who is certain Indra Bahadur died of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/the-heat-is-killing-us">heat stroke</a>.&nbsp; Earlier this week, Balram Magrati ,53, of Dhangadi suddenly fainted while working in an outdoor food stall. He was rushed to Seti Provincial Hospital, where he died. “Cases of people fainting and having breathing difficulties due to excessive heat are now common,” says Sher Bahadur Kamar, a physician at the hospital.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240621140644_8d2dffbed2e4f6c95b6c7bb1e6aae8761f6cca58f54f1b384a2bf0e70f545703.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20240621140644_8d2dffbed2e4f6c95b6c7bb1e6aae8761f6cca58f54f1b384a2bf0e70f545703" data-rendition-name="original" width="1810" height="918" loading="lazy" alt="Heat wave western Nepal"> </figure>  The monsoon rains arrived in eastern Nepal on 10 June, bringing down the temperature, but<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/soon-monsoon"> unleashed floods and landslides</a>. The monsoon was advancing across Nepal, but has stalled because of a resurgent westerly, and this means more delays in cooling rains coming to the sweltering western Tarai. Dhangadi and neighbouring parts of India have seen the maximum lingering at 45°C for weeks on end. Earlier, such high temperatures would only last a few days. “For the first time since 1996, we have also recorded the highest temperature. It was 44.1°C on 30 May, the minimum that day was 30.2°C,” explains Singal Chaudhary of the Mahakali Basin Field Office in Attaria. The office has since recorded near 44°C for days on end. As the monsoon approaches, increased humidity is making conditions worse. Children and the elderly are particularly vulnerable, and locals say they cannot live indoors either because of their corrugated tin roofs. The electricity also is off and on because of increased demand. On Thursday, Sethia Dagaura, 85, was in Dhangadi inside her neighbour’s house which is under construction. This has been her refuge for more than a month. “My house has a tin roof and it is too hot to live there, so I moved here,” she explains, fanning herself with cardboard. But even that blows on hot air. “It should be raining by now, maybe god is telling me this is the end,” she says.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240621140644_fa1e92b804a42612dd49272832fb6dd8639b226f38da3a71fc26eaf5f5ec6323.jpg" data-media-id="editor_3" data-image-id="20240621140644_fa1e92b804a42612dd49272832fb6dd8639b226f38da3a71fc26eaf5f5ec6323" data-rendition-name="original" width="1689" height="918" loading="lazy" alt="Heat wave western Nepal"> </figure>  The heat in northern India has <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/smoke-screen">ignited forest fires</a> in Uttaranchal, Himachal Pradesh, and also in the mountains to the north of here. But it has also dried the soil moisture and crops. The ground water table is also going down and wells are drying up. “Five out of seven taps in our village do not have water anymore, we go to the neighbour’s tap for drinking water,” says Rajkumar Choudhary, who lives on the outskirts of Dhangadi. Schools in Banke, Bardia, Kailali and Kanchanpur have been closed for three weeks due to the heat. Just as they were supposed to reopen, the closure has been extended at least until 25 June. According to the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology, the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/comment/preparing-for-kathmandu-s-heat-waves">heat wave</a> may continue for a week more because of the westerlies blocking the monsoon’s progress. Until then, physician Kamar at Seti Provincial Hospital suggests staying in a cool place to avoid heat, drinking plenty of water and fluids, wearing light clothes and not going out in the afternoon sun.

Too hot to handle

On a slow, sweltering summer afternoon at the edge of a forest in deep rural northern Thailand, the brain fever bird is doing my head in with its insistent, rising call.
We, like most of Asia south of the Himalaya,<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/warmer-drier-winters-in-nepal"> are now living on the heating planet</a> which experts have long warned of and science has projected for decades.
Across the world as summer temperatures break record after record, bumble bee nests are overheating, endangering the key pollinators. Warming seas are killing corals, which will then affect fish and then artisanal fishing communities in South and Southeast Asia. Sea surface temperatures are at 34° Celsius in the Bay of Bengal, the highest recorded anywhere in the open oceans.&nbsp;
Meanwhile, are our leaders and billionaire class - the two often overlap - <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/the-politics-of-pollution">serious about climate change</a>? The evidence is not compelling. Former US President Donald Trump in April reportedly asked top fossil fuel industry leaders for $1 billion for his campaign to retake the White House. “We’re going to drill, baby, drill,” he has said at his rallies. &nbsp;
Should he win the White House, climate change mitigation goals will be out of the window in his first days in office. Meanwhile, as if nothing untoward was happening, wars in Ukraine and Gaza are - besides death, destruction and misery - producing staggering amounts of greenhouse gases.
The burning of oil wells by Saddam Hussein’s army in 1990 as western coalition forces drove Iraqi forces out of Kuwait generated more than 400 million tonnes of carbon, according to Axel Michaelowa, a University of Zurich climate policy expert.
Even at the most peaceful of times, militaries are massive emitters of greenhouse gases. In 2018 - the most recent year figures are available for, the US Department of Defense alone produced 56 million metric tons of CO2 equivalent - more than many single countries.
But<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/guest-editorial/the-international-order-is-dying-in-gaza"> wars and militaries </a>are the sacred cows of national security establishments, and their emission reductions are never a part of climate summits. It's business as usual for the military; total global military expenditure reached US$2443 billion in 2023, an increase of 6.8% in real terms from 2022, says the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) — the steepest year-on-year increase since 2009. The ten largest spenders in 2023 were the United States, China and Russia.
In May, the Guardian reported that a poll of hundreds of leading climate scientists found that they expect global temperatures to rise way past the internationally agreed target of 1.5° Celsius above pre-industrial levels. A dystopian future is not just around the corner: for a farmer in Asia’s heat belt it is already here. Numerous experts told the paper they felt hopeless, infuriated and scared by the failure of governments to act despite the clear scientific evidence provided.&nbsp;
I asked anthropologist and expert on warfare Brian Ferguson, a professor at Rutgers University, whether the human species is capable of rising above its quarrels to unite in the face of a genuinely <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/biosphere-on-the-brink">existential threat to the biosphere</a>.
Ferguson asked for a week to think about that, and then wrote back: ‘Any way I think about it, the answer is no.'
'Identity is always constructed, with competing versions, often involving an enemy. It is easy to create alternative versions. So people with power can redirect an experienced threat to a target they find more congenial. Which is what we have seen happening in climate debates, and we see in war all the time.'
The many thousands of young people who flood the streets demanding action against global warming, have something in common with<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/protests-of-despair"> the thousands across campuses in the US </a>demanding their schools sever any investments in and association with Israel. They have woken up and discovered what the adults have been up to.
In the energy of those students, there is hope. Like the protests in the US in the late 1960s and early 1970s against the Vietnam war, and in the late 1980s against South Africa’s apartheid, they challenge and disrupt the prevailing power dispensation. But they are fundamentally hopeful. They demand peace, not war.
‘You see the kids protesting on behalf of Gazans? See how they <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/business/solidarity-with-gaza">risk their careers</a>? DO THAT. And then do it again and again,’ wrote Genevieve Guenther, a climate activist and founder of End Climate Silence, on X.
As psychologist Viktor Frankel famously wrote in his classic Man’s Search for Meaning, about life and survival in the Nazi regime’s death camps: “Everything can be taken from a man but one thing: the last of the human freedoms — to choose one’s attitude in any given set of circumstances, to choose one’s own way.”
You could call it survival. We are an ingenious species, and we have no choice. Amid the bad news, we have a responsibility, and an obligation, to hope.
Nirmal Ghosh, veteran foreign correspondent, author and former US Bureau Chief of The Straits Times, co-hosts the podcasts Green Pulse and Asian Insider.

The obligation of hope

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110141128/636cfc6b9c7e80680e0a0b8ajpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2006" height="1332"/><figcaption>Paddy and maize fields in Kavre. A heavier than usual monsoon this year brought destructive floods, but was a boon to farmers. Photo: AMIT MACHAMASI</figcaption></figure>As if the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/first-drought-then-downpour/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">drought</a>, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/wildfires-ravage-nepal-mountains/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">wildfire</a> and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/disasters-in-nepal-come-in-waves/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">flood disasters</a> this year were not bad enough, scientists have warned that unless the world reduces emissions of greenhouse gases drastically, these disasters will get much worse.Hundreds of scientists spent the past two years drafting a 4,000 page <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/">report for the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC),</a> but even as they did so, news of climate calamities were coming in thick and fast: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/turning-on-the-heat/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">heat waves</a>, continental-scale wildfires, flash-floods, biodiversity loss.A summary of the report for world governments was released on Monday, three months before world leaders meet in Glasgow in November for a Climate Summit called COP26 (Conference of Parties 26).The highly technical Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) of the IPCC on the science behind climate change has forecasts that will directly affect Nepal and the Himalaya. It also has pointers on what must be done urgently to reduce its impact.The IPCC report contains the most direct correlation scientists have drawn between <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/a-hotter-himalaya/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">climate change and extreme weather</a> around the world.‘The frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation events … and droughts have increased since the 1950s,’ the report states with ‘high confidence’, adding that human-induced climate change is likely the main driver.It adds categorically: ‘Increases in monsoon precipitation since the 1980s have resulted from rising GHG (greenhouse gas) concentrations … Monsoon precipitation is projected to increase in the mid- to long term on a global scale, particularly over South and Southeast Asia.’<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110141128/636cfc6e9c7e80680e0a0b8bjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1988" height="1024"><figcaption>Source: IPCC</figcaption></figure>It predicts that these heavy precipitation events will intensify and become more frequent in most regions as the world continues to warm. Globally, there will be 7% more <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/climate-damage/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">extreme weather</a> for every 1° Celsius of global warming.Even under the best-case scenario of reduced greenhouse gas emission, global average temperature is set to exceed 1.5°C by the turn of the century. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/a-biden-presidency-climate-and-the-himalaya/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">The Himalaya</a> will get hotter faster than other parts of the world, and could warm by 1.8-2.2°C.The main conclusions of this IPCC report were leaked to AFP in June, and predicts global surface temperatures increasing until at least the mid-century even under the best scenario. The warming will ‘exceed 2°C during the 21st century unless deep reductions in CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions occur in the coming decades’.The 2015 Paris Agreement recommended capping global warming at ‘well below 2°C’ above pre-industrial levels, and to 1.5°C in the next 30 years by reducing emissions. However, the increase is already at 1.2°C Celsius, and on track to exceed 2°C.This will lead to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/between-existence-and-extinction-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">mass species extinction as ecosystems collapse</a>, more <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/mosquitoes-move-up-mountains-as-the-earth-warms/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">widespread diseases</a>, heatwaves making parts of the world unfit for human habitation, cities and small island nations at risk of being submerged by sea level rise.For Nepal, even a 1.5°C rise in global temperature will mean <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/manpower-and-hydropower/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">heavy precipitation and associated flooding</a> of the kind the country saw in 2018 and this year. At 2°C increase, the floods, heat waves and droughts  will be even deadlier.The other impact on Nepal will be a <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/on-thin-ice-in-the-khumbu/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Himalayan meltdown</a>, as the mountains thaw with rising temperatures.‘Human influence is very likely the main driver of the global retreat of glaciers since the 1990s,’ the report states. ‘…The global nature of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/human-face-of-a-himalayan-climate-crisis/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">glacier retreat</a>, with almost all of the world’s glaciers retreating synchronously, since the 1950s, is unprecedented in at least the last 2,000 years.’<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110141128/636cfc719c7e80680e0a0b8cjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="546"><figcaption>Future annual emissions of CO₂ under the five scenarios SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5. Source: IPCC</figcaption></figure>This is even truer for the Himalaya because of its proximity to the equator. Scientists say it is already warming up to 0.3-0.7°C faster than the global average due to a phenomenon called ‘Elevation Dependent Warming’. But at the current trajectory, the mountains may see warming of up to 5.7°C during this century. In such a scenario, the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/a-terrifying-assessment-of-himalayan-melting/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Himalaya will lose two-thirds of permanent ice</a>, and most glaciers will have melted.It predicts that even if greenhouse gas emissions are curtailed, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/the-third-pole-is-warming-faster-than-expected/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">mountain and polar glaciers will continue melting</a> for decades or centuries. This will impact not just Nepal but about 1 billion people living downstream from the Himalaya in China, India, Bangladesh and southeast Asia.‘Human influence has likely increased the chance of compound extreme events since the 1950s, increases in the frequency of concurrent heatwaves and droughts on the global scale, fire weather in some regions of all inhabited continents, and compound flooding in some locations,’ the says the IPCC report, almost describing the winter drought, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/weve-seen-fire-and-weve-seen-rain/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">wildfires and floods that have ravaged Nepal</a> in the past 8 months.The main cause of all this warming is that in 2019, atmospheric CO2 concentrations were higher than at any time in at least 2 million years. Global surface temperature averaged over 2081–2100 will be higher by 1.0°C to 1.8°C compared to pre-industrial levels even if emissions are controlled in the next 30 years.The IPCC report summary says that the only solution is for world governments to immediately agree on reaching net zero anthropogenic CO2 emissions to stabilise human-induced <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/climate-for-change/the-great-himalayan-thaw/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">global temperature increase</a>.If the biggest carbon emitters like India and China meet cut back targets, under the most optimistic scenario global average temperature would stabilise at below 1.5°C toward the end of the 21st century after overheating by 0.1°C. But experts do not sound very optimistic about this happening.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110141128/636cfc749c7e80680e0a0b8djpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2006" height="986"><figcaption>Projected global temperature rise under the intermediate, high and very high GHG emission scenarios considered. Source: IPCC</figcaption></figure><a style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-lockdown-proves-air-quality-can-be-improved/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Nepal’s greenhouse gas emission</a> is negligible, but it has doubled in the past seven years according to a mandatory report filed by the Ministry of Environment with the UN’s Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Most of this is because the volume of petroleum imports from India has doubled in the past 10 years to meet the demand of transportation, expansion of cement and other industries.Last year, Nepal had submitted its second Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) to meet <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/blueprint-for-a-net-zero-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">zero emission by 2050</a>. Switching to electric public transport and battery vehicles to reduce the petroleum import bill by just 10% would save Rs21 billion a year. This will also clean up the air, dirty air killed 41,000 people in Nepal in 2019.It is a sign of just how desperate the situation is that the IPCC scientists say in their report that the only hope for life on the planet may be a major volcanic eruption this century that would reduce global surface temperature because the sun will be blocked out for 2-3 years.The reports says rather phlegmatically: ‘If such an eruption occurs, this would therefore temporarily and partially mask human-caused climate change.’

UN climate report declares planetary emergency

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110813114/636a46959c7e80680e04d3e6jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1400" height="933"/><figcaption>ALL PHOTOS: KAMZANG JOURNEYS</figcaption></figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110813114/636a46989c7e80680e04d3e7jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="803">Another harsh winter this year in the part of the Tibetan Plateau that is located in Nepal’s <a href="https://nepalitimes.atavist.com/high-and-dry-upper-mustang" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Upper Mustang</a> region has resulted in a massive loss of livestock.<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/mixed-blessings-in-mustang/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Mustang</a>’s nomads have been particularly hard hit, losing hundreds of yaks, sheep and <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/ode-to-goat,3321" target="_blank" rel="noopener">goats</a>. Blizzards in February killed many of the goats and sheep in their pens, and yaks in the upper regions also died. The nomads have a close bond with their sheep and goats, giving each of the baby animals to the correct mother every evening after grazing.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110813114/636a469b9c7e80680e04d3e8jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1400" height="935"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110813114/636a469e9c7e80680e04d3e9jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="801">The nomads who live on the Nepal side of the border with China are resilient, and know how to survive in the bitter cold winters of the high plateau. But nothing prepared them for the ferocity of this year’s storms. A series of <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/page/annapurnas-avalanche-and-blizzard-early-weather-warning-systems" target="_blank" rel="noopener">blizzards</a> in February and March left up to 1m of snow, and before it had a chance to melt, more started falling.This is the third winter in the last seven years with unusually heavy snowfall, and the nomads have suffered the loss of a large percentage of their livestock.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110813118/636a46a19c7e80680e04d3eajpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1400" height="933"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110813118/636a46a49c7e80680e04d3ebjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="803">News of the blizzards did reach faraway Kathmandu and the provincial capital in Pokhara, but no help came. The nomads, many of whom are Tibetan refugees without Nepali citizenship, do not have monetary savings and survive on barter, so they had no way to recover their losses.Local communities and trekking groups have been helping the nomads living near <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=3802#.XQtcRRYzaUk" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Lo Manthang</a> recover. One of them is <a href="https://www.kamzangjourneys.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kamzang Journeys</a>, which specialises in taking trekking teams to camp and travel with the nomads.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110813118/636a46a89c7e80680e04d3ecjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1279" height="854"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110813118/636a46ab9c7e80680e04d3edjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1280" height="853">It has set up <a href="https://www.kamzangjourneys.com/the-nomad-fund-adopt-a-goat/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Nomad Fund</a>, and says the money collected from its Adopt a Goat program is delivered directly to nomad families. Despite its name, the $150 per goat collected can be used by the nomads as they need, whether for food and supplies, medical care or to purchase replacement livestock.“The Adopt a Goat project is very close to our hearts as we have been trekking with these resilient, warm, generous and tough nomads for nearly two decades,” says Kim Bannister of Kamzang Journeys. “We provide families with financial help when they lose their animals during winters, and help with sales of their hand-woven textiles.”To contribute to Adopt a Goat and The Nomad Fund go to: <a href="https://www.kamzangjourneys.com" target="_blank" rel="noopener">https://www.kamzangjourneys.com</a>/

Gift a goat to Tibet nomads in Nepal

<figure><img width="1500" height="1000" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108101132/636a22149c7e80680e04176fjpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Women and children displaced by flood seek shelter in Jogapurwa village of Bahraich district, Uttar Pradesh in India. Photo: NABIN BARAL</figcaption></figure>Parash Nath Kashyap, 62, has moved three times in two decades due to floods and erosion along the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ghaghara">Ghaghara</a> River, which is what the Karnali is called after crossing the border in southwestern Nepal.“How different our life was 20 years ago,” says Kashyap, dragging a <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charpai">charpai</a> under the shade of a tree along the left embankment of the Ghaghara in Jogapurwa, 30km west of <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bahraich">Bahraich</a> city.In 2000, severe floods washed away his family’s land so they moved a kilometre east. Another flood in 2002 forced them to move again. In 2008, they were made homeless again and settled in a patch of government land along the flood-control levee. “It’s like hide and seek, we move as the river moves,” he says wryly. “For years we have danced with the river, but with tears in our eyes.”Read also:Part 1: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/faith-to-reality/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Faith to reality</a> Part 2: <a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/dams-and-dreams-a-journey-down-the-karnali/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Dams and dreams a journey down the Karnali</a><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108101132/636a22179c7e80680e041770jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000">Parashnath Kashyap is the leader flood victim communities in Jogapurwa in Uttar Pradesh, India. He has been fighting for rights of the affected communities in Ghaghara. Photo: NABIN BARALThe Ghaghara flows into the Ganga downstream in Bihar in one of the most flood-prone regions and most densely-populated regions of the world. Floods in the Ganga basin between 2000 and 2014 affected about 93 million people. According to a <a href="https://www.routledge.com/The-Ganges-River-Basin-Status-and-Challenges-in-Water-Environment-and/Bharati-Sharma-Smakhtin/p/book/9781138900325">2018 report</a> from the International Water Management Institute, there were 326 extreme flood events in the Ganga basin between 1980 to 2015 resulting in 67,000 casualties. Of these 212 floods were in India, 74 in Bangladesh and 40 in Nepal. China accounts for 4% of the basin, but there is almost no information about floods there. Read also:Part 3: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/climate-denial-in-the-himalaya/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Climate denial in the Himalaya</a> Part 5: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/a-karnali-portrait/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">A Karnali portrait</a> After the river-engulfed more land in Jogapurwa of Uttar Pradesh, the number of people living in temporary settlements has grown. This has led to a web of social problems in recent years. “People living far from the embankment (our relatives) don’t want to get their daughters to marry our boys as we live in a very vulnerable situation,” Kashyap adds. <img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108101132/636a221b9c7e80680e041771jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000">Chandra Vahal , a flood victim in Jogapurwa village of Uttar Pradesh shows the level of flood that submerged their make shift houses last mosoon. Photo: NABIN BARALHe knew that problems would get worse when he was first displaced in 2000, so he married off his daughters as early as possible while he had some money left. As he lost his land, his economic condition deteriorated. “We have land certificates but we are landless because the river is flowing over where we used to live,” he said.Most of the younger generation have gone to bigger cities in Punjab or Delhi to look for work. The result of the exodus is visible: most people in the villages were women, the elderly and children.“We cultivate some vegetables on the sandy land in the dry season. You can’t imagine how big this river is in the monsoon,” said Kamlesh Kashyap, another flood refugee. This land is far from where they live, so their vegetables are often stolen or eaten by animals. “If boys were here, they could guard the land at night, but women can’t because it’s very unsafe,” he adds. <figure><img width="1500" height="1000" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108101132/636a221e9c7e80680e041772jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Locals collect sand from the Ghaghara river at the Ganga/Ghaghara confluence. NABIN BARAL</figcaption></figure>Displaced people who move to the cities have to do low class jobs, like dish-washing or toilet cleaning, since very few had been to school. The farming community has been devastated, children do not go to school.“They have to herd animals, so parents are reluctant to send them to school,” says Dhrub Kumar of the Panchasheel Development Trust which works with displaced communities. “Parents are forced to sell most of the milk from their cows or buffaloes, so the children do not have enough to eat.” The Uttar Pradesh government’s attempts to relocate the displaced have largely failed due to a lack of understanding of their long-term needs. A decade ago, the government provided land for people in Jogapurwa to construct houses, but the land was too far away from where they farmed. “It’s about 10-15 km from here and the land is just enough to build houses so where do we keep our animals, where do we produce food, how do we survive?” asks Parashnath Kashyap, whose family decided to stay put in the hope that Ghaghara would change course someday and they would get back to their land. Some people moved to the government provided land, but later they returned to the embankment. “We are all low caste people but the new land was dominated by higher caste people so we were afraid we would be harassed,” says Chandran Bhaal, 56. <figure><img width="1500" height="1000" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108101132/636a22219c7e80680e041773jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Hare Ram and his wife sow pointed gourd in the sandy soil at the confluence of the Ganges and the Ghaghara in Chhara district of Bihar. Photo: NABIN BARAL</figcaption></figure>The Karnali River traverses the mountains from Tibet through Nepal and becomes the Ghaghara in Uttar Pradesh in northern India. The Girijapuri Barrage 16km downstream from the Nepal border was built 55 years ago to divert water for irrigation to central Uttar Pradesh. Much of the water is diverted west to the Sharada River , another tributary of the Ganga. “We are killing this river by diverting most of the water for irrigation and leaving the downstream areas dry,” says Dhrub Kumar.According to the <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/279200603_River_Bank_Erosion_Induced_Human_Displacement_and_Its_Consequences">studies</a>, the Ghaghara started shifting course particularly after 1995. The Gangetic plains are relatively flat, and after the steep descent from the Himalaya, the rivers shift course in the alluvial plains, especially when they swell during the monsoon. According to the <a href="https://www.downtoearth.org.in/news/floods-in-north-and-east-india-kill-120-people-45848">National Disaster Management Authority of India</a>, about 2.7 million hectares out of 24.1 million hectares of land in the state is affected by floods every year, with an estimated loss of $57 million. Debates whether embankments are the right way to deal with floods are not new, but the problem is getting bigger as more money has been invested in flood control levees over the past decades. Experts say the heavy sediment load is raising the river beds, and although the embankments may control floods temporarily, they can cause catastrophic flooding when the levees are breached in future. <figure><img width="1500" height="1000" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108101132/636a22259c7e80680e041774jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>An embankment to control floods in the Ghaghara river near to the Ganga/Ghaghara confluence at the border of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. NABIN BARAL</figcaption></figure>Many argue it is only corrupt contractors, bureaucrats, technocrats and politicians who have benefited, making billions from embankments despite their failure to curb the floods. “Long-term solutions are not a priority, but immediate relief and embankments have always been priority. It clearly shows that money is the motivation behind (embankment building),” said Ajit Dixit, a journalist based in Cornelganj in Gonda district.Governments are supposed to protect people but many say they are not moving in the right direction. The population grows rapidly and land encroachment near rivers is a serious problem because it leaves them vulnerable to future floods. “If we invest the amount of money we have been investing in embankments, I think it’s possible to resettle villages in safe places. But as it’s a politically motivated move it’s not going to happen,” Dhrub Kumar says.While the construction of embankments started during British rule, the majority were built after India’s independence in 1947. According to the World Banks’s 2014 <a href="http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/955751468000263739/pdf/103889-WP-Ganges-Strategic-Basin-Assessment-A-Discussion-of-Regional-Opportunities-and-Risks-PUBLIC.pdf">report</a>, about 16,200 km of embankments were constructed between 1954 and 1997 in India alone and authorities claim this has protected about 17 out of 40 million hectares of flood prone lands along the Ganga.The story is jointly published by Nepali Times and <a href="https://www.thethirdpole.net/en/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Third Pole</a>. Subsequent instalments of this five-part series will appear from 8-11 January.

Dancing with the river

The monsoon has got bad press because Nepal’s tourism operators actively told visitors to avoid <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/managing-the-monsoon?%2F">the rainy season</a>. It is time to change that. The reason can be found right here in the vast alpine meadows of Central Nepal where this time of year you can walk on velvet grass of pastures abloom with delicate pink, red and yellow flowers as the mist rolls up the valley. There is no sound except the hum of bumble bees. &nbsp;&nbsp; There are dozens of places across high Nepal called Chaurikharka, which means yak pasture. But this particular Chaurikharka in Rukum East located at an altitude of 4,000m stands out for its serene beauty, rustic charm and bucolic setting. There is just the occasional chime of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/when-yaks-go-so-does-culture">yak bells</a> in the distance, and the sharp whistle of herders corralling sheep. &nbsp;&nbsp; The grass shoots are so fragile that one hesitates to step on them, the rounded ridges appear and quickly vanish in waves of mist. With the<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/before-the-next-monsoon"> arrival of monsoon</a>, these meadows are a soothing shade of green dotted with millions of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/review/the-anatomy-of-a-flower?%2F=">multi-coloured flowers</a>. Until very recently, it took a week or so to hike up to places like Chaurikharka, but with the expansion of the road network even to these far-flung mountains in the lap of Dhaulagiri, they are much more accessible. It is just a three-hour uphill from the Mid-Hill Highway on the border between Baglung and Rukum East.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250802130828_a0b06b494d751b2144ffbbf10894ea64b29e8aed844bc8c66171783abfaf4e16.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20250802130828_a0b06b494d751b2144ffbbf10894ea64b29e8aed844bc8c66171783abfaf4e16" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1365" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon"> </figure>  Purists would say that such easy access devalues the sanctity of these remote high meadows, but it also means more people will be moved to treasure the experience, appreciate <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/natures-fragile-gift-to-nepal">the value of nature </a>so they can take steps to protect it.&nbsp; To be sure, the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/deadly-monsoon-in-nepal-turns-deadlier">monsoon season can be challenging for road travel</a>. The roads are rough even at the best of times, and in the monsoon they become muddy and treacherous, often blocked by<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/monsoon-deluge-in-nepal"> landslides</a>. But that could be precisely the kind of adventure that the more intrepid visitors crave. Improved road connectivity has already made Chaurikharka and places like Badimallika &nbsp;and other sacred lakes in the mountains of western Nepal popular with domestic tourists. What is driving this traffic is the urge to go to exotic new places and share videos and selfies on social media. Several of Nepal’s travel vloggers have visited Chaurikharka and popularised the place, enticing followers on TikTok or YouTube to retrace their footsteps. But even as they become more popular, these fragile and once-remote places should be protected from over-tourism.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110736_f97110b7cdc3e7f80d5877690948fc9f4c95a09c583deb23b07355491e6c5446.jpg" data-media-id="editor_8" data-image-id="20250731110736_f97110b7cdc3e7f80d5877690948fc9f4c95a09c583deb23b07355491e6c5446" data-rendition-name="original" width="1083" height="699" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon NT"> </figure>  <h2>INCREASING FOOTFALL</h2> Chaurikharka is located in Bhume Rural Municipality of East Rukum, near the scenic valley of Dhorpatan in Baglung district. Even in the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/monsoon-culture">middle of the monsoon</a>, there is a steady stream of Nepali hikers trooping to these high pastures – especially during festival days like Saune Sankranti which this year was on 17 July and actually marks the auspicious beginning of the monsoon here. “This year the rains have not been as heavy and there have been some clear mornings when we could see everything from Dhaulagiri to Machapuchre,” says Khageswar Bhandari, who trekked up here from the road. “The flowers, the greenery and the snowy mountain views make this an incredibly unique place.”&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250802130824_1b9e26f2e9853fdfe69154bb42a7c9ea6da4bf4940efc1da99b304dcfbd7d3d9.jpg" data-media-id="editor_10" data-image-id="20250802130824_1b9e26f2e9853fdfe69154bb42a7c9ea6da4bf4940efc1da99b304dcfbd7d3d9" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1152" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon"> </figure>  Chaurikharka is worthwhile to get to in any season, but it has a different charm during the monsoon. Word has spread and because it is now easy to get to from Baglung or even Pokhara, people have been flocking here.&nbsp; “Holidays and Saturdays see the largest crowds, with up to 500 visitors every day,” says ward chair Mankaji Pun of Bhume.&nbsp; There was a time not too long ago when local herders brought sheep, goats, cows, buffaloes, horses, and mules to graze here during the monsoon. Although there are still livestock around, animals have been replaced by visitors taking selfies. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-monsoon-and-nature-s-arithmetic">The monsoon, and nature’s arithmetic</a>, Tom Robertson Ward Chair Pun says infrastructure development is his main priority. A foot trail to Chaurikharka was built last year by the Tourism Division Office in Kohalpur, but access via the Raniwas-Koipa road section still remains challenging.&nbsp; “If we get more budget, we can improve the road and facilities to make Chaurikharka the main tourist attraction of this region,” says Bhume Municipality Chair Hom Prakash Shrestha. “After that, we hope to promote Chaurikharka as a top tourist spot.”&nbsp; Economic activity is also picking up with the arrival of visitors, but there seems to be a need to manage the makeshift sheds made of corrugated sheets that spoil the beauty of the place. Tea shops and lodges are also available but facilities are basic. Kuldeep Neupane took a three-day trip from Ghorahi in Dang to visit Chaurikharka recently, and says: “This is an ideal trip to make a quick getaway and let nature recharge your mind and body. And it is much more fun with a tent, to watch the sunrise over the Himalaya or the mist blowing in.”

Visit Nepal in the monsoon

Nepal is graduating to become a developing country on 24 November 2026 after half-century in the Least Developed Country (LDC) category. By 2030, the country hopes to transition to middle-income status.&nbsp; Everone from Prime Minister K P Oli have boasted that this is a matter of national pride, and will have a multiplier impact on trade and economy.&nbsp; But will it make any difference to the average Nepali? Not unless improved governance <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/why-invest-in-nepal">spurs investment and creates jobs</a>.&nbsp; Countries need to meet at least two of the three criteria in two consecutive triennial reviews to be eligible for graduation from LDC. Nepal has consistently met the thresholds for the Human Assets Index (HAI) and the Economic and Environmental Vulnerability Index (EVI) in 2015, 2018, and 2021. But Nepal was recommended for graduation before meeting the per capita <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/nepals-great-income-divide">Gross National Income (GNI)</a> threshold of $1,306. “A major implication of LDC graduation is the loss of preferential market access available through Generalised System of Preferences (GSP) and other arrangements,” explains economist Sameer Khatiwada. “But over two-thirds of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-doesnt-produce-its-2-biggest-export-items">Nepal’s exports</a> are to India, and the preferential market access to India is through a bilateral trade agreement. This has nothing to do with our LDC status.”  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250815060832_f5eabe7628a8cdf84f33b25d7cef3c4dc8913a26d8e5b253ea52a36e176b8a85.jpg" data-media-id="editor_3" data-image-id="20250815060832_f5eabe7628a8cdf84f33b25d7cef3c4dc8913a26d8e5b253ea52a36e176b8a85" data-rendition-name="original" width="640" height="470" loading="lazy" alt="LDC graduation "> </figure>  Furthermore, a provision under the South Asian Free Trade Area (SAFTA) allows Nepal to export to India duty-free if the items are at least 30% value-added. Nepali traders take advantage of this by re-exporting edible oils without meeting that requirement, falsely boosting Nepal’s exports.“ Following graduation from LDC, the value addition threshold might increase to 40%,” says Kalpana Khanal of the Policy Research Institute. “This is supposed to work to our advantage, because on paper value addition inherently means <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/multimedia/staying-home-to-create-jobs">job creation at home</a>.” But Nepal’s exports to other major destinations will face <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-and-the-us-india-tariff-tiff">tariff increases</a> with the graduation. A South Asia Watch on Trade, Economics and Environment (SWATEE) study shows that while tariff increase in the US market is relatively low (see page 5) it is considerably higher in Europe. The International Trade Centre (ITC) in a 2022 study also estimated that graduation could result in a 4.3% decline in Nepal’s projected exports, but this is excluding the impact of changes in ‘rules of origin’ provisions in preference-granting countries such as the UK and Europe.&nbsp; Nepal’s top export to these preference-granting countries is <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=1482">carpets</a>, and will not be impacted, but other items such as textiles and apparel will be heavily affected due to higher cost of production. The impact will felt mostly by small and medium enterprises which represent the largest share of exports to LDC-specific preference-granting countries. As for the service exports, Nepal never really made use of the World Trade Organization’s LDC services waiver anyway, hence the effect will be minimal, if any. There is also concern about Nepal’s graduation at a time when the global economy is topsy-turvy, amidst <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/turning-point-in-us-india-relations">tariff wars and conflicts</a>. This affects Nepalis abroad directly and may impact <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/more-remittance-more-than-remittance">remittances </a>which hit $11 billion in 2024. In comparison, Nepal only received $350 million in foreign loans and grants last year.&nbsp; Tourism arrivals have finally reached pre-pandemic levels, but bad publicity about pollution, poor infrastructure and bureaucratic hurdles hinder further growth. Manufacturing continues to struggle, while hydropower and the IT sector have taken off.&nbsp; “Look at data -- <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/tourism-needs-a-new-push">tourism arrivals</a> are up, spending is up, IT exports are up, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/why-nepal-needs-to-restore-ev-tax-subsidy">EV sales </a>are up, Europe still needs 85-90 million skilled workers. We are sitting on $16 billion in cash reserves, our balance of payment, foreign exchange reserve, tax to GDP ratio, credit flow are all positive, we have to build on these factors,” says Sujeev Shakya of the Nepal Economic Forum. He adds: “Our mindset creates negativity to promote rent-seeking behaviour, but this cynicism will go away after 2026 with LDC graduation. We must deal with data, look at trends, and projects which will bring in <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/from-the-nepali-press/why-there-is-no-foreign-investment-in-nepal">international investments</a>.” Khanal agrees that investment is not dependent on<a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/backside/Nepal-not-the-least-developed-country,306"> LDC status</a>. The factors that that affect investment are policy stability, a strong legal framework, market potential and ease of doing business. She adds, “That is where our focus needs to be, and we need to retain <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/diaspora-diaries/migrant-worker-returns-to-create-work-at-home?fbclid=IwAR09xJfsClCwn8uRVAmz28CU658vdKpuyDwB_b1sNlvKtAFFnSldnA0JS2g">Nepalis with jobs at home</a> for our sustained growth.” After 2026, financing support from donors and aid agencies could be affected and Nepal will no longer be able to access Least Developed Countries Fund (LDCF) to adapt to the impacts of climate change. But the Global Environment Fund and Green Climate Fund will still be available.“ LDC status does not determine bilateral development aid, that is usually driven by broader <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/looking-beyond-two-boulders">geopolitical considerations</a>,” says Sameer Khatiwada. “The World Bank and Asian Development Bank, which provide concessional loans to Nepal, it is determined mainly by per capita income, not LDC status.” &nbsp;However, Nepal may lose some concessional terms for loans. Nepal is currently a lower-middle-income country as per the World Bank in the bracket for GNI between $1,036 and $4,045. The country is already receiving more loans than grants and in July the World Bank increased its interest rate on loans by 100% from 0.75 to 1.5%. “All this means that the impact of LDC graduation for Nepal might not be as earth-shattering as some tend to think. Countries that have recently graduated, such as Botswana and the Maldives, have shows that graduation is just a step in a country’s development path,” says Khatiwada. Sujeev Shakya also sees the glass as half full, explaining that LDC graduation is just a stepping stone if Nepal has the right policies in place. He adds, “Nepal’s biggest advantage is our<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/investing-in-people"> working age population</a> and we have investments coming in. These aided by how adaptive we are as a society are the very foundations on which Nepal will grow.”

Not poor, but not rich

Two weeks ago, Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli announced jubilantly on social media that Nepal had achieved a historic annual growth of 81.8% in exports. He was right. Nepal’s trade did take a great leap forward compared to last year. But the dramatic rise was mainly due to processed soya bean oil.&nbsp; However, Nepal does not produce the edible oil it exports. In fact, the soya and palm oil that make up 44% of total exports are imported from Southeast Asia and South America, and simply re-exported, mostly to India.&nbsp; Under the SAFTA (South Asian Free Trade Area) Agreement, Nepal can export products to India duty-free if it has at least 30% value-added. Nepal’s traders have taken advantage of SAFTA even though the edible oils they export do not reach that value addition threshold. “The 30% value addition requirement is often only on paper,” says former commerce secretary Purushottam Ojha. “It is clear that simply packaging edible oils in Nepal does not fulfil the terms of the trade agreement.” Prime Minister Oli is aware of this, and even called Nepal’s export figures “fake” at an earlier event. The government is relying on other iffy figures to suggest that Nepal’s economy is strong and getting stronger. For example, the value of imports rose by 13.25% in 2024-25 compared to the previous fiscal year.&nbsp; Some of it was due to a jump in electric vehicle imports worth Rs 31.76 billion, but mostly it was because more wholesale soya oil was imported to be re-packaged and sold in India. The very fact that the government boasts about increased imports is an indication of how much it relies on taxing them for revenue. Touting such trade figures cannot be the basis to claim an economic rebound.&nbsp; “A jump in the value of imports can be interpreted as an increase in purchasing power, but it is not evidence of a stronger economy,” says economist Keshav Acharya. “Even though imports have increased, Nepal's domestic production and productive capacity have not improved.” Nepal Rastra Bank's semi-annual economic activity study report shows that industrial production was down in the first six months of the last fiscal year. This despite an increase in the number of new industries registered and investment commitments. Out of the Rs70.2 billion proposed foreign investment, Nepal received only Rs17.9 billion last year.&nbsp; Meanwhile, the rate of capital formation was limited to 24% last year, which is lower than the year before, suggesting that new investment, job creation and economic expansion all declined. If domestic production does not improve in relation to this year’s inflated trade figures, the outflow will put pressure on foreign exchange reserves like it did three years ago. At that time, Nepal borrowed from the IMF under its Extended Credit Facility Program to kickstart the economy.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025080710084_2cdaaa5795828c4a7de93a0604ba884ef0a8b8f24cccd939f6c24e279ab6058f.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="2025080710084_2cdaaa5795828c4a7de93a0604ba884ef0a8b8f24cccd939f6c24e279ab6058f" data-rendition-name="original" width="1633" height="723" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal's bubble economy NT"> <figcaption>Source: NEPAL RASTRA BANK</figcaption> </figure>  The macroeconomy is on firm footing with foreign exchange reserves at a comfortable Rs2,520 billion in May, up 23% from last year. This was largely due to remittances, and partly due to a falling NPR exchange rate. Real estate transactions and the stock market index have also been climbing as a result of government policies to revive the sector.&nbsp; However, former executive director of Nepal Rastra Bank Nar Bahadur Thapa cautions: “This is not organic growth, it is the result of deliberate policy decisions to relax rules on real estate and stock markets transactions.” In reality, the sharp rise in land prices have increased the cost of production, and excessive monetisation of the real estate has become the main source of Nepal’s economic woes. The central bank has announced a slew of new policies, shifting the terms of loan repayment for industrialists and entrepreneurs, reducing interest rates, and injecting more working capital — all designed to inject adrenaline into the real estate and stock market sectors.&nbsp; When he was governor, Mahaprasad Adhikari made several financial reforms during the latter half of his tenure to stimulate the economy, including tightening credit flow.&nbsp; By the last fiscal year, additional financial reforms had resulted in a credit expansion rate of around 8%. As the pace of credit expansion slows, real estate prices have started to fall. This is actually beneficial to the economy, because it lays the foundation for improvements in land-related entrepreneurship, production, and the construction sector. Just because real estate and the stock market transactions increase, it does not indicate an economic turnaround — especially when manufacturing and productive sector continues to languish.&nbsp; “It is foolish to believe that real estate and the stock market have magically revived our economy. Agriculture employs more than half of the population, but it is in decline. Investment in the productive sector has not increased, and job creation has not increased.” Two years ago, Nepal’s industrialists, business leaders, and political leadership predicted a recession amidst a sluggish business, declining market demand, large-scale job loss, and a shrinking real estate and share market.&nbsp; Still, the economy grew by 3.36% in fiscal year 2023/24. In fact, Nepal’s economy has grown nominally over the last two decades even when all sectors of the economy are in decline.&nbsp; Says Keshav Acharya: “The growth in trade, real estate, and the stock market are bubbles. The real economy remains stagnant.”

Nepal’s bubble economy

The final investigation report on the crash of a Saurya Airlines jet on 24 July 2024 at Kathmandu airport has revealed flaws in the carrier’s technical operation procedures, poor monitoring by the Civil Aviation Authority of Nepal (CAAN) and gaps in the airport’s emergency response. Eighteen people including a child were killed, and only the captain survived as the plane plunged seconds after takeoff, crashing within the airport perimeter. This was the latest in a series of aircraft accidents in previous years, and further tarnished Nepal’s already poor aviation safety record and contributed to the country being retained in the EU’s air safety list. &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; The circumstances in the Saurya crash were different from the Yeti Airlines crash in Pokhara in January 2022 that killed all 72 on board, and two Tara Air crashes in February 2016 and May 2022 on approach to Jomsom that together claimed 45 lives. However, all four tragedies were a result of negligence of carriers and crew, failure to follow procedures, regulatory slackness, and overconfidence. The Saurya crash, especially, was a glaring example of how an ailing airline broke its own rules to allow passengers, including non-employees, a joy ride to Pokhara on a maintenance ferry flight. CRASH REPORT The Final Investigation Report prepared by the Aircraft Accident Investigation Commission and released on the first anniversary of the crash last week carried a long list of rules that were ignored or broken, and of regulatory failure. The first mistake was to cram spares, tools and inflammable chemicals needed for the aircraft’s C-Check in Pokhara into the cargo hold flouting its own ground handling procedures.&nbsp; There was no check-in of passengers, some of whom were not even employees – even though regulations say only flight and maintenance crew should be on board a maintenance positioning flight. Many brought their own luggage into the plane and stored it unsecured in the cabin. There was no flight attendant to give a safety briefing to passengers. The load and trim charts given to the flight crew were rough estimates, and the total takeoff weight of the plane was 18,300kg plus or minus 200 kg. That would still have been all right, but there was a glaring mistake in the speedchart Saurya pilots were using to calculate the minimum takeoff speed (known as VR), and it had been wrong ever since the 21-year-old aircraft entered service with the airline in 2017. FAULTY DATA&nbsp; The Commission probed Flight Data Recorder inputs from previous takeoffs of the Canadian-built CRJ200-LR in 2023-2024 and found that the undetected error in the speedchart had caused the plane to pitch up at an abnormal rotation rate at least 18 times on previous takeoffs.&nbsp; Any rotation rate more than 3°/sec is regarded as unusual. But on at least two occasions, this aircraft with tail number 9N-AME had rotation rates of 5.8°/sec and 5.5°/sec, the second one was when the pilot who survived was flying in March 2024.&nbsp; On this particular day, the plane’s rotation rate was 6.5°/sec, causing it to go into a deep stall soon after takeoff, the Commission report said. Essentially, the plane was not flying fast enough down the runway to take off safely.&nbsp; It is not yet clear whether excess weight, unsecured luggage, wrong centre of gravity were also factors, but relying on a faulty speedchart for the given takeoff weight, the captain flying pulled back on the yoke before the plane had reached takeoff speed and at a pitch angle that was too steep. The investigation report says the plane then went into a deep stall and started banking right with the stick shaking. At this point, the flight officer on the right hand seat is heard on the cockpit voice recorder saying: “Whoa, whoa, whoa. Sir, Sir, Sir…” It then banked left before the pilot flying turned the plane sharply to the right again in an evasive action to avoid the parking aprons of the international and domestic terminals. Had he not done so, there would have been a disaster of a much greater magnitude at Kathmandu airport that day. The plane scraped the runway with its right wingtip, collided with a container having helicopter spare parts, and plunged into a gully east of the runway, exploding in a fireball. The investigation also noted that the impact forces seemed to be survivable for some occupants. The fire trucks took unnecessarily long to reach the site even though it was inside the airport perimeter. The absence of an ICAO-standard runway strip, inadequate rescue drills, lack of training, and a blocked emergency service gate leading to the crash site were cited as other factors. &nbsp;&nbsp; <h2>Timestamp of a Disaster</h2>  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110724_39cdd04693994ce6e55a5b302905c0fa4884fe85bed21ff0779bb1439f3a5725.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20250731110724_39cdd04693994ce6e55a5b302905c0fa4884fe85bed21ff0779bb1439f3a5725" data-rendition-name="original" width="778" height="826" loading="lazy" alt="Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy NT"> </figure>  11:10:34 - The Saurya Airlines CRJ200 on the takeoff roll from runway 02. It had a takeoff weight of about 18,300kg, but the pilot’s speedcard had a previously undetected mistake about the minimum takeoff speed. 11:10:55 -The plane with tail number 9N-AME goes into deep stall soon after takeoff because it does not have enough speed to lift its weight. The plane also has an abnormally steep nose-up attitude.&nbsp; 11:11:03 - Without enough speed to generate lift, the plane banks right, then left and right again in CCTV photos taken from the domestic apron (below). If it had not banked right, it could have hit the aprons and terminal buildings. Seen parked is Saurya’s other CRJ200 with tail number 9N-ANM.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110732_608132f7225c649125cca2691dd6a6bf930984c5b359e888d7ad9e5eacce3afd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20250731110732_608132f7225c649125cca2691dd6a6bf930984c5b359e888d7ad9e5eacce3afd" data-rendition-name="original" width="770" height="555" loading="lazy" alt="Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy NT"> </figure>  11:11:08 - The plane scrapes the runway with its right wingtip, and falls into the gully. The captain is thrown off the left side of the cockpit and survives. 11:11:15: Plane explodes in a fireball inside the airport perimeter. Firefighters take time to reach the site because of lack of access road and a blocked gate. Read the full investigation report <a href="https://www.tourism.gov.np/files/9N-AME%20AIC%20Final%20Report.pdf">here</a>.

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