<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121144/636b92da9c7e80680e06f171jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="960" height="640"/><figcaption>All Photos: Amit Machamasi/Nepali Times</figcaption></figure>Within six days of the start of the rainy season, the monsoon of 2021 has already caused death and destruction across central Nepal.Heavy showers continued on Wednesday in one of the worst affected areas 40km northeast of Kathmandu in Melamchi Bazar, where dozens of people are reported missing and infrastructure washed away by flash floods.Video posts on social media showed walls of muddy water with floating logs and trees rushing down the streets of the town, located at the confluence of Melamchi and Indrawati Rivers.When this photographer reached the town on Wednesday afternoon, both rivers were still flowing high, heavy with mud and silt.The rainfall has been unusually heavy in Sindhupalchok district, with some monitoring stations registering above 100mm in the 12 hours between Tuesday and Wednesday morning.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121144/636b92dd9c7e80680e06f172jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="394"><figcaption>Weather satellite radar image showing the monsoonal system with heaviest rain in red, over central Nepal on Wednesday afternoon. DoHM</figcaption></figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121144/636b92e19c7e80680e06f173jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="960" height="640">Also contributing to the high sediment load were mountain slopes destabilised by the 2015 earthquake as well as haphazard road-building, leading to frequent landslides for the past five years.In addition, boulders and sand banks that would have reduced the velocity of the water in the rivers have been mined and picked clean by construction contractors, making the flood more destructive.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121144/636b92e39c7e80680e06f174jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="538"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121144/636b92e69c7e80680e06f175jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="960" height="640"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121144/636b92e89c7e80680e06f176jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="427"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121144/636b92eb9c7e80680e06f177jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="427"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121144/636b92ed9c7e80680e06f178jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="427"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121144/636b92f09c7e80680e06f179jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="427">The floodwaters seem to have started right at the upper reaches of the rivers since some of the headworks of the Melamchi Water Supply Project were damaged by the rising waters. Eight workers at the Melamchi project, including three Chinese and three Indians and two Nepalis are said to be missing when the flash flood entered the project site.Fortunately, the 26.5 km tunnel that brings water to Kathmandu Valley had been closed for testing a few days earlier.Two highway bridges and three suspension footbridges on Melamchi road were destroyed. Several trout farms and paddy terraces were also washed away. In the Bazar itself, most of the damage could be seen in the new construction on the floodplain of the river.Geographer Narendra Khanal says the Indrawati River appears to have been blocked by a landslide between 5-6pm on Tuesday evening. The water level monitoring station shows the flow at 4.7m decreasing suddenly to 3m, and then shooting up to 6m at 6:45pm."This is an indication that the river was blocked for about 45 minutes about 20km upstream in an area with major landslide after the 2015 earthquake, and suddenly the water burst through," Khanal says. The Indrawati meets the Melamchi just above the Bazar, and the combined flow changed the course of the river, forcing it to disperse over its flood plain.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121144/636b92f29c7e80680e06f17ajpeg.jpg" alt="" width="960" height="640"><figcaption></figcaption></figure><a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/11uv1E3NjRSHrrXHs7RPCbQboPtxyMlk3/view?usp=sharing" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Radhika Shrestha</a>, Melamchi-11We live in lower Melamchi near the bridge. I was working in the fields when I got a call from my brother-in-law saying that the river was blocked upstream and to move to higher ground. We ran towards the road that is at a higher level than our house. After a while we saw that the level of water in the river had decreased, so we went home to cook and eat dinner. We were still cooking when we got another warning to leave.We have eaten biscuits and packaged noodles. We are four people in the family. All our assets have been lost to the flood but we will survive even if we have to beg or do physical labor.<a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1F0E3VJWfzVdUFWDDDXOmlB4pWouRb-A0/view?usp=sharing">Laxmi Prasad Shrestha</a>, Melamchi-11Last night, it was the Indrawati river that flooded first. Two hours later, the flashflood in Melamchi destroyed the entire market and houses here.The police informed us that the flood was coming, so we ran from our houses to higher ground. We are now taking shelter at the school here.We have lost everything. Our house, the lodge everything was submerged and is now covered in mud. Whatever we had was inside the house and now it is impossible to retrieve. We haven’t thought of the future, we don’t know how we will survive.<a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1IK6Ocz83-pEYi-AUcMcROpfuuY5v-ugO/view?usp=sharing" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Rudra Prasad Dulal</a>, Ward Chief Melamchi 11Ward number 10 and 11 were worst affected by the flood. Yesterday around 5pm, we received an early warning and we mobilised our team, informed everyone including the security forces. This is the only reason why we didn’t have any casualties in our community.More than a hundred houses have been inundated in Melamchi. We have rescued four people, with the help of security personnel.A lot of infrastructure has been destroyed, including bridges and transmission lines.We have asked one family to stay in one room of the school and are arranging food for them.

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Nepal valley suffers quadruple disaster

<figure><img width="1800" height="1350" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121140/636b91fe9c7e80680e06f121jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>A landslide in Jajarkot last year. Photo: RSS</figcaption></figure>By any measure, the past year has been disastrous for Nepal. The Covid-19 lockdowns devastated the economy, the 2020 monsoon killed a record number of people, and this year the second wave hit with full force even as governance was paralysed by a prolonged power struggle in the ruling party. Now, Nepalis are bracing themselves for their <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/preparing-for-floods-during-a-lockdown/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">second monsoon season during the pandemic</a>, one which meteorological modellers say could dump above normal precipitation over most parts of the country.The other difference with last year is that the second Covid-19 wave is even more virulent and widespread. This means crowded shelters after a flood or landslide will be hotspots for new infections at a time when only 4% of the population is vaccinated.“Covid and floods are contradictory in nature, as one needs physical distancing while the other makes it impossible to do so. This will add to the existing burden,” says epidemiologist Lhamo Yangchen Sherpa.She adds: “We can’t prevent floods, but we can reduce its impact. We must concentrate on identifying risk groups and their emergency evacuation, set up shelters with physical distancing, stockpile tents, food and emergency medicines including oral rehydration salts and water purifiers.”Even though last year’s southwest monsoon was said to be 'normal' in Nepal, it <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/deadly-monsoon-in-nepal-turns-deadlier/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">triggered numerous flash floods and landslides</a>, killing at least 400 people and destroying over 1,000 houses. Entire villages in Sindhupalchok, Jajarkot, Myagdi, Baglung, Kalikot and Bajura districts were buried. The South Asian Seasonal Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF) has forecast ‘above normal’ rainfall for most of Nepal this year, with more than usual precipitation in most of the Mahabharat and Himalaya, and slightly deficient rainfall in the eastern Tarai. <figure><img width="2081" height="1260" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121140/636b92019c7e80680e06f122jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>"There is a possibility of floods, landslides and other water-related disasters occurring together during the third and fourth week of July this year when the second wave of the pandemic will still be peaking,” states the government’s National Monsoon Preparedness and Response Plan 2021. The probability of flash-floods and landslides are even higher this year because of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-is-going-up-in-smoke/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">the wildfires</a>. There were 7,000 fires affecting 75 of Nepal’s 77 districts from November 2020 to May 2021, the highest number ever recorded.  The fires reduced forested slopes to ashes, incinerated the undergrowth, thus reducing the absorptive capacity of the soil. When the rains come, the water will therefore rush down the slopes instead of seeping into the topsoil. “This year’s rainfall is forecast to be higher than last year's average. Based on this analysis, it can be estimated that there will be a significant increase in <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/in-nepal-either-too-much-or-too-little-water/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">landslides and floods</a> during this year's monsoon,” says meteorologist Shanti Kandel at the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology. She adds: “Forecasting is preparedness in some ways. But it has to be effectively communicated, so if we are to wait until landslides have occurred to act, it’s too late and there is no point.” <figure><img width="1050" height="701" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121140/636b92049c7e80680e06f123jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>In the past, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/disastrous-management-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">the government has faced criticism</a> for prioritising relief over prevention. This could change with the formation of the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority (NDRRMA), which works primarily on preparedness and mitigating risk, while delegating more rescue responsibility to first-responders in local governments.“In earlier years landslides were not discussed as part of our monsoon preparedness plan, only floods were, and this year we set landslides as a priority for preparedness and response also looking at the intersection of wildfires, Covid-19 and the monsoon,” says Anil Pokhrel, who heads NDRRMA that has produced a workplan for monsoon preparedness and response. The NDRRMA with DHM recently trained officials in 36 municipalities in nine of the most high-risk districts (Myagdi, Gorkha, Kalikot, Rasuwa, Sindhupalchok, Bajhang, Jajarkot, Syangja and Dailekh) on Impact Based Forecasting which predicts extreme weather events so that at-risk groups can be ready. “We are dealing not just with floods and landslides this time, but also Covid-19. Local communities are setting up rapid response teams to best prevent an outbreak in shelters and maintain health protocols, and spreading awareness through FM radio in local languages,” says Liladhar Adhikari of the NDRRMA. Despite the ‘above normal’ forecast in the models, climate scientist Ngamindra Dahal expects the monsoon to even out unless Nepal experiences cloudbursts over the Mahabharat and Chure ranges. These sudden heavy showers have been the cause of the deadliest floods and landslides in recent years. “We now have the technology to predict localised cloudbursts through Impact Based Forecasting which is crucial in saving lives, all we need now is real-time action so local communities get advance warning,” says Dahal.But predicting and determining the impact of floods and landslides only from the perspective of weather gives us an incomplete picture. The climate crisis has changed precipitation patterns and made extreme weather events more frequent and destructive. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/dont-just-blame-god-for-floods-and-landslides/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Poorly designed and built roads, bad engineering</a>, and unplanned settlements have disturbed fragile mountain slopes, making them more disaster-prone.“We have in recent times recorded 105mm rain per hour in Surkhet, 100mm in Bajhang and 73 in Kulekhani which is a clear indication that the monsoon is getting more intense, but we are only now trying to understand this trend,” says Dahal. “We need to see whether there are indeed more frequent cloudbursts, or if the disasters are more noticed because they affect new settlements in floodplains and roads that follow river banks.” <figure><img width="1174" height="770" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121140/636b92079c7e80680e06f124jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>At the NDRRMA, Liladhar Adhikari agrees that in addition to rapid response and rescue, a new development model is crucial in preventing multiple hazards in the long term. “New infrastructure has to adhere to environmental safeguards so that they do not drastically alter the rural landscape and make them more vulnerable to disasters.”Unfortunately, Nepal’s approach to development has been at the expense of nature preservation. The annual budget announced last week <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-nature-of-pandemics/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">will allow quarrying</a> on the already-unstable slopes of Himalayan foothills to export stones and aggregates to India.Epidemiologist Lhamu Yangchen Sherpa has been to several emergency shelters recently, and points out that there is an <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/uneven-pandemic-impact-on-nepali-women/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">additional burden on women during disasters</a>.  She says: “Like before and during this coronavirus crisis, women are especially vulnerable in the aftermath of a disaster, we must support them with security in shelters, physical and mental health care during this monsoon in the middle of a pandemic.”

flashflood

Nepal valley suffers quadruple disaster

Nepal braces for monsoon-pandemic double hit