<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109101120/636b71259c7e80680e0600b7jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1100" height="1031"/><figcaption>Illustration : DIWAKAR CHHETRI</figcaption></figure>The Nepal Communist Party (NCP) government completes two years in power next month. Despite its <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/two-thirds-empty/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">strong majority</a>, the party’s performance has been underwhelming.It may look like the NCP is just lurching from one embarrassing cockup to another. But there are signs the party may have A Plan. That all along, it has been aiming not for ‘stability and prosperity’, but for the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/spooking-nepalis-by-snooping-on-them/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">extension of control</a>, the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/rule-by-law/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">stiffling of dissent</a>, the intimidation of critics, the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/gagging-the-press-in-installments/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">muzzling of the media</a> and the constriction of civil society. There is even a systematic strategy in place to roll back the development gains of the past decades.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/14-years-after-conflict-no-closure-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">14 years after conflict, no closure in Nepal</a><a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/crushers-of-justice/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Crushers of justice</a>, EditorialGiven that power is centralised in Baluwatar, the plan is obviously being hatched at the Prime Minister’s Office. There may be a <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/which-way-nepali-politics-in-2020/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">power struggle at the top</a> between Prime Minister Oli and his comrade Pushpa Kamal Dahal, but on matters of control and domination the party has <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/one-body-two-heads/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">one body with two heads</a>.The Cabinet has zero accountability and no performance evaluation. Instead, ministers regularly threaten critics with crude scare tactics. They take their cues from Prime Minister Oli, who last week accused editors in the Nepali media of being “without hearts”. It is true that the criticism of Oli across a broad-spectrum of the national media over <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-business-of-politics-undermines-nepals-democracy/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">his dealings with the Yeti Group</a> has been relentless, but we have received no satisfactory explanation of why the consortium gets preferential treatment in leases of former royal property by the Nepal Trust.The government’s actions over the past two years may seem ad hoc and haphazard, but taken together there appears to be a method to the madness. Let’s take the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/no-speaker-no-parliament-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">sidelining the NCP’s own Shivamaya Tumbahangphe</a> and the bullheaded approach to replace a <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/the-rise-and-fall-of-comrade-mahara/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">rape-accused Speaker</a> with a murder-accused Speaker. If we had to cite just one example of why there is <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/getting-away-with-murder/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">impunity and blatant flouting of the rule of law</a> in this country, the appointment of <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/thebrief/2011/05/31/hearing-set-for-case-against-minister-agni-sapkota/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Agni Sapkota</a> to the post of Parliament Speaker is it.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/no-speaker-no-parliament-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">No Speaker, no Parliament in Nepal</a>, Sewa BhattaraiEver since the end of the conflict 14 years ago, the Maoists, the UML, NC and the security forces have been <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/yesterdays-enemies-todays-comrades/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">partners in crime</a> in sweeping their combined <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/state-of-impunity,2976" target="_blank" rel="noopener">wartime atrocities</a> under the carpet. Families of the victims and survivors of the war demand justice and truth, but every government since 2006 has tried to rig the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/12-years-later-justice-is-a-mirage/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">transitional justice</a> mechanism, and not a single perpetrator has been brought to trial. In fact, perpetrators get to lead Parliament.Agni Sapkota is accused of murdering <a href="https://www.himalkhabar.com/news/111027" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Arjun Lama, an activist of the UML</a>, in Kavre in 2005. The irony of it all is that the UML and the former Maoists are now unified in the Nepal Communist Party. After years of struggling for justice for her husband, Purnimaya Tamang finally told this paper this week: “I have lost all hope for justice now.”Pushpa Kamal Dahal may have been technically right in stating last week in Chitwan that he was responsible for the deaths of “only” 5,000 of the 17,000 people killed during <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepals-transition-to-peace-needs-justice/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the conflict</a>. But who is keeping count? If this vulgar non-repentance rattled many Nepalis, imagine what it did to the families of the disappeared and the survivors of that terror-filled decade.One of the provisions of the Comprehensive Peace Accord signed in 2006 was the establishment of a <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/One-To-Many/victims-waiting-for-justice,698" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Truth and Reconciliation Commission (TRC) and a Commission for Investigation on Enforced Disappeared Persons (CIEDP)</a>. But all governments since have conspired to make these commissions ineffectual by appointing party loyalists to their senior positions so that no one ever has to answer for war crimes. This week, the NCP and NC appointed new handpicked commissioners to the TRC and CIEDP.Aside from transitional justice, the NCP has been trying to dismantle just about every sector in which Nepal has done well. There are <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/from-the-nepali-press/taking-away-forests-from-communities/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">attempts to dilute the laws</a> governing <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/who-now-owns-nepals-forests/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">community forestry</a>. Pushpa Kamal Dahal hinted in Madi last week that he intended to change the by-laws governing Chitwan National Park. Under pressure from the fossil fuel lobby, the Finance Ministry is said to be thinking of scrapping <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepals-electric-transport-future-is-here/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the tax rebate on electric vehicles</a>. And this week, the Home Ministry was reported to be drafting a new Social Organisations Act which will allow it to close down non-government organisations it does not like.Taken together, it is not hard to see what the NCP has been working hard to do in the past years. In an Orwellian sense, when the party said ‘stability’, it always meant ‘control’.<h2>10 years ago this week</h2>...The <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=16728" target="_blank" rel="noopener">analysis by Ashutosh Tiwari</a> in <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/issue/486" target="_blank" rel="noopener">issue #486 of 22-28 January 2010</a> shows us how the power centre may have shifted in the last ten years, but the lust for power among our political leaders remains the same. As two Communist alpha males continue to battle it out in the ruling NCP, the latest casualty is the post of Speaker, with the sidelining of Shivamaya Tumbahangphe in favour of a murder-accused candidate: Even accounting for politicians’ lust for power, what’s wrong with our particular democratic structure that keeps on returning the same old politicians to power no matter how many Roman numeral andolans we have?On the outside, our system has the requisite avatar of a democracy (multiple parties, elections, political horse-trading, etc). Dig deeper, and you will find that it’s not the voters who call the shots but the party leaders, who have designed their parties’ internal structures in such a way as to keep them in power for as long as they live. Voters can express resentment, but come election time, they have to choose among the same menu of candidates.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109101120/636b71289c7e80680e0600b8jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="513" height="800">...

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THE TWO - YEAR ITCH

<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107161116/636921f79c7e80680e03a0ffjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000"/>Nepal’s flourishing diversity of ethnicities, languages and cultures and its socio-cultural closeness to Burma made me feel at home as soon as I landed in Kathmandu recently.Unfortunately, another similarity is that both countries have been mired in conflict and are trying to come to terms with truth and justice for past human rights violations.  There is a lot the two countries can learn from each other.Burma (Myanmar) was ruled by notorious military regimes for nearly half a century up until 2011, when political liberalisation began. The United Nations and others have documented widespread and systematic human rights violations by the junta, including war crimes, crimes against humanity and allegations of ethnic cleansing.Burma has the world’s longest-running civil wars, and has seen continuous conflict between the government and many of the country’s ethnic groups since independence in 1948. Both the military and ethnic armed groups have committed crimes including extrajudicial killings, forced displacement of entire villages, recruitment and use of child soldiers, and destruction of property, and war rape.The brutal suppression of pro-democracy movements, and violent crackdowns of protests were common throughout this period of military rule from 1962 to 2011, resulting in thousands of political prisoners. The atrocities against ethnic minority groups continue to this day, with the <a href="https://www.hrw.org/tag/rohingya-crisis" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&amp;q=https://www.hrw.org/tag/rohingya-crisis&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1536731149248000&amp;usg=AFQjCNG9Jk6SjnsFjB6vZ6LOiPDxXWE85A">violations against Rohingya</a> people getting the most international attention at the moment.In comparison, Nepal’s conflict lasted a shorter period between 1996-2006 when most of the rights violations occurred. The violations of human rights during conflicts in both countries are so numerous and egregious that the normal justice system is not able to provide adequate response, which is why <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-struggle-for-transitional-justice/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">transitional justice mechnisms </a>are needed.After 2011 Burma’s military rule was replaced by a military-backed civilian leadership. A comprehensive peace process with ethnic armed groups brought bilateral ceasefires moving up to a <a href="https://www.mmtimes.com/national-news/17022-extracts-from-the-nationwide-ceasefire-agreement.html" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&amp;q=https://www.mmtimes.com/national-news/17022-extracts-from-the-nationwide-ceasefire-agreement.html&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1536731149248000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFCatvjWLrPNer76IDwjivKl6nh7g">Nationwide Ceasefire</a> in October 2015. The current National League for Democracy (NLD) government, elected in a landslide in 2015, has continued <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-myanmar-politics-peace-idUSKCN1160RF" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&amp;q=https://www.reuters.com/article/us-myanmar-politics-peace-idUSKCN1160RF&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1536731149248000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHlFs7iEmrEFX7RmKFS5qH4T1roYg">negotiations</a> between government, military, ethnic armed groups and political parties. Even so, the International Center for Transitional Justice (<a href="https://www.ictj.org/our-work/regions-and-countries/burmamyanmar" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&amp;q=https://www.ictj.org/our-work/regions-and-countries/burmamyanmar&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1536731149248000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFZYp8J36Vu0BAiKxeaJ9db3UEJEw">ICTJ</a>) has been pushing Burma to provide redress to political prisoners and bring victim experiences into the national dialogue.However, the process has been overshadowed by the accusations of a <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-myanmar-rohingya/myanmars-ethnic-cleansing-of-rohingya-continues-u-n-rights-official-says-idUSKCN1GI0C2" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&amp;q=https://www.reuters.com/article/us-myanmar-rohingya/myanmars-ethnic-cleansing-of-rohingya-continues-u-n-rights-official-says-idUSKCN1GI0C2&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1536731149248000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHnY3CEDJon3L9CC2ux35UaP6z-Qg">campaign of ethnic cleansing</a> against the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/living-on-the-margins/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Rohingya Muslim</a> population by the military which has forced some 700,000 refugees to flee to neighbouring countries. A <a href="https://www.ohchr.org/Documents/HRBodies/HRCouncil/FFM-Myanmar/A_HRC_39_64.pdf" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&amp;q=https://www.ohchr.org/Documents/HRBodies/HRCouncil/FFM-Myanmar/A_HRC_39_64.pdf&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1536731149249000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFjnSZCGKZsKvq4mB0Q05qmpvitkQ">UN repor</a>t on 24 August was the strongest condemnation yet and called for top military figures to be investigated for genocide in Rakhine State and crimes against humanity in other areas. It recommended that the case be referred to the International Criminal Court (ICC).Predictably, Burma’s rulers <a href="http://time.com/5381281/myanmar-rejects-un-rohingya-genocide-report/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&amp;q=http://time.com/5381281/myanmar-rejects-un-rohingya-genocide-report/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1536731149249000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHXozMm9CjyFfrgfrqgRcp2s_JVGw">rejected</a> the report. Then last week, a Rangoon court sentenced two Reuters reporters to seven years in prison for <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-45392972" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&amp;q=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-45392972&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1536731149249000&amp;usg=AFQjCNE07dgoa6OG7N-imhGIkuPmFXc8aw">violating a state secrets act</a> while investigating the atrocities against the Rohingya. Domestic and international rights have condemned it as a crushing blow to freedom of the press and another setback for democracy.Nepal’s own 2006 Comprehensive Peace Agreement laid down the steps to establish the Truth and Reconciliation Commission and the Commission on Investigation of Disappeared Persons which were finally established in 2015. Even so, they are criticised for allowing the government to grant amnesty to perpetrators, they <a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2018/02/13/nepal-transitional-justice-proving-elusive" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&amp;q=https://www.hrw.org/news/2018/02/13/nepal-transitional-justice-proving-elusive&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1536731149249000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGebWcVaS1DrMhWBpyjX4uKXTT3HQ">fail to meet international standards</a> and are unconstitutional. The government has extended their mandates for the second time in February, but has not provided them enough technical and financial support.Both Nepal and Burma currently face the challenge of a <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/just-not-justice/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">lack of commitment and delays</a> about the transitional justice process because of the lack of political will to acknowledge the past and provide relief to victims.In Burma, the military did not want to uncover the wrongdoings of its personnel and discussion of massive human rights violations has been largely<a href="http://www.irrawaddy.com/election/news/forgive-those-who-wronged-us-suu-kyi-tells-nld" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&amp;q=http://www.irrawaddy.com/election/news/forgive-those-who-wronged-us-suu-kyi-tells-nld&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1536731149249000&amp;usg=AFQjCNF-f-Fz5PYrT6mZYMmyuPWQSLywog">understood to be off the table</a> during the transition and the peace process. This is because the current government says it is worried that raking up the past might reopen old wounds and further deepen divisions. Burma’s hybrid political structure still equips the military with greater power and influence. This failure to address transitional justice to confront past violations is now impeding the ability to confront the present.A similar <a href="https://www.icj.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/Nepal-TJus-Process-Advocacy-2017-ENG.pdf" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&amp;q=https://www.icj.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/Nepal-TJus-Process-Advocacy-2017-ENG.pdf&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1536731149249000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFjTUV6E4PEQAdkfJwBIUBkGlAJYg">narrative</a> is <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/Rights-right-here-at-home,3956" target="_blank" rel="noopener">being put out in Nepal as well</a>, and this is largely the reason why the perpetrators of conflict-era violations keep getting amnesty without serving actual jail time or prosecution. Since former enemies are now the state, it is in their interest delay, dilute and deny justice. Transitional justice is said to impede reconciliation, and perpetrators argue they were just following orders.Victims, their families, and human rights activists want them to be held to account no matter what. The Nepal government recently began consultations on amendments to the two <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/rocky-transition-to-justice/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">transitional justice mechanisms</a>. While this shows the country may be going in the right direction, the notion that seeking justice impedes reconciliation is still widespread.Justice and reconciliation should not be trade-offs, nor are they mutually exclusive. After periods of repression and conflict, burying the past for the sake of peace might seem desirable but is not  sustainable in the long run. Transitional justice does not merely mean prosecution or reopening old wounds, it holds perpetrators to account and gives a change for them to offer apologies and acknowledgment. Nepal and Burma must remember that addressing past violations and recognising victims as rights-holders, fosters civic trust and the rule of law while promoting reconciliation.Naw Gladys Maung Maung is a political science student from Burma who was recently in Nepal.

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Nepal and Burma delay, dilute and deny justice

Nepali Congress (NC) President Gagan Thapa's candidacy in Sarlahi-4 has thrust this Madhes constituency into rare national focus. If Thapa wins and the NC emerges as the largest party, Sarlahi-4 will send Nepal's next prime minister to Parliament. But if he does not, Nepal’s grand old party will face the next years in the opposition to fight another day. There is a troubling paradox in Sarlahi-4 where the district bordering the Indian state of Bihar has been a battleground for national politicians with fierce electoral competition, all while remaining one of the region's most underserved and underdeveloped constituencies.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485.png" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485" data-rendition-name="original" width="1802" height="1276" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: MADHES PAHARA MEDIA</figcaption> </figure>  Ever since Mahant Thakur split from NC in 2008 to form the Tarai Madhes Loktantrik Party, the district has seen rotating political alliances and fragmented votes. Yet, despite 18 years of candidates promising change irrigation schemes remain incomplete, market access for farmers has not improved, unemployment is high.&nbsp; On election day, voters here marked their ballots with fingers stained by dye from the Holi festival the day before. The road leading to Barathawa Bazar was deserted for the most part, except for some youth riding in motorcycles. This is where the high-profile contest between Gagan Thapa and RSP nominee Amresh Singh is being staged. Among the other aspirants is 27-year-old UML candidate Amnish Yadav, the son of former MP Shiv Pujan Yadav. The Yadavs are a political family with considerable caste influence in the constituency. In 2022 Yadav’s daughter Madhumala Yadav received over 14,000 votes here, ranking third overall. Yadav was voted MP from the Maoist party, but defected to the UML this time. His other son is the chair of Sarlahi’s Ramnagar Rural Municipality. Sarhali-4 has 121,012 voters, and the Yadav is banking on the 27,000-strong Yadav vote bank. Sarlahi-4 voter Avishek Sah told us he wanted his vote to go to a young nominee and not someone who has been MP thrice already, like Amresh Singh. &nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10" data-rendition-name="original" width="1200" height="1600" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  To make local loyalties even more complicated, Amnish Yadav’s uncle, Harinder Yadav is an active NC member and walked side by side with Gagan Thapa during his door-to-door campaigns.&nbsp; The NC is betting on Thapa getting over 60% of the total votes. Amresh Singh’s tally could be limited to 10,000 votes — that too because of the nationwide RSP wave, and the popularity of its prime ministerial hopeful Balendra (Balen) Shah. “Amresh Singh lost his appeal when he played victim after he was denied a ticket by the NC in 2022,” Harinder Yadav says. Voters we spoke to here agreed with this assessment that Singh did not do much for the district once he got elected in the past, and being a part of the RSP seems to be his biggest asset. “The only reason I voted for Amresh Singh is because Balen is in RSP,” local voter Mahendra Gupta from Barathawa. &nbsp;“This is his last chance to return the people’s trust.”&nbsp; Gupta is aware of the institutional presence of the NC here. The party received the most votes in 2022 local elections, adding that the candidacy of someone as high-profile as Thapa is a positive sign for Sarlahi-4.&nbsp; Other voters like Ruby Gupta are rooting for both the NC and the RSP. “I will vote for Gagan and for Balen,” she says, adding that her FPTP vote will go to Thapa while her PR ballot would be for the RSP. RSP supporters are confident that their candidate will win big because even though many voters may not have openly voiced their support they still voted for the party and candidate. The Balen Wave was not limited to RSP voters, but also to UML candidate Yadav, who said in a gathering that he will be “the voters Balen” if they elect him. He touted his party’s track record in government, and largely campaigned on administrative efficiency, infrastructural expansion, and local service delivery. Amresh Singh ran on the RSP’s anti-establishment brand, promising to fight corruption, challenge traditional party politics, improve basic services such as education, health, jobs, and infrastructure, while pushing for stronger representation and development for Madhes.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="1200" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo:AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  Singh’s rivalry with his NC competitor goes beyond the ballot— he allegedly blames Thapa for being denied the NC ticket in 2022, which led him to win the election from Sarlahi-4 as an independent. &nbsp; For his part, Gagan Thapa focused on a more pragmatic development agenda that includes upgrading roads and irrigation, improving schools and hospitals, supporting farmers, and creating employment opportunities with improved governance at the centre. He also promised to build an engineering college in the constituency.&nbsp; Thapa also promoted his own anti-establishment image within the NC, repeatedly reminding voters on the campaign trail that he represents the aspirations of the youth.&nbsp; On Thursday, as voting progressed, there were violent disruptions in two centres where voting was briefly halted. But Sarlahi district police spokesperson Saroj Rai told Nepali Times that there were no major problems. Police in collaboration with the Nepal Army sent the ballot papers to the district’s counting stations, where the votes are expected to be tallied through the night and the winner announced Friday morning.

Sarlahi-4 nervously watches ballot count

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Nepal election live results

As this report is uploaded, the latest results in Nepal’s election show that the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) is headed for an even bigger sweep than most had predicted.
The RSP was leading by large margins in 49 of 165 constituencies, &nbsp;with the UML, NC and NCP trailing far behind. Prominent political figures from the old parties like K P Oli, Minwndra Prasad Rijal, Ishwar Pokhrel, Bishnu Prasad Poudel, Bimalendra Nidhi all seem headed for defeat.
It does look like the RSP’s bell election symbol is ringing right across Nepal — from cities to the remotest districts in the mountains and plains. The party’s blue colour is sweeping the land.
The Nepali people seem to have sent a clear message that they were throughly dissatisfied with the chronic failure of the three main parties to work in the national interest to create jobs and deliver development. It was also an expression of lingering outrage over the the 8 September massacre outside Parliament. &nbsp;
It now looks almost certain that Balendra Shah will get to be Nepal’s next, and youngest, prime minister. Hopefully he will be leading a cabinet of competent and honest technocrats. It remains to seen how the power equation between Shah and the RSP’s leader, Rabi Lamichhane will play out.
Lamichhane is out of jail on bail for fraud cases which he has called political vendetta by the previous regime. Both he and Shah are charismatic and ambitious. Their working relationship will determine Nepal's political stability and whether it can avoid the political cronyism of the past.
This election was not just about casting votes. It was about standing up to principles and a value system, and respecting the hopes and aspirations of Nepal’s youth. It to push for transparent government and against impunity — including for the gunning down of young Nepalis in cold blood.
<div class="embed-block"><iframe src="https://election-geo-dashboard.pages.dev/" width="100%" height="600" frameborder="0"> </iframe>Live election results as winners of candidates are announced.</div>
CAN DO MAN
Shah got mixed reviews as mayor. He was impulsive and ad hoc, but most people inKathmandu and beyond liked his can-do attitude and unconventional style which stood in sharp contract to the legacy leaders. Over his three year mayorship he showed more maturity and planning capacity.&nbsp;
But he always ran headlong into opposition from the federal government over his urban planning and other initiatives to make Kathmandu more liveable. Coming from a civil and structural engineering background, he was involved in building low-cost housing after the 2015 earthquake.
But his public persona is more tied to his irreverent rap lyrics that stood up for the marginalised underprivileged in society, while exposing the high-handedness and apathy of the state. But this also exposed contradictions because he also used his own municipal guards to beat and chase away street vendors and squatters.
But there is no doubt that a combination of the sharp messaging in his rap videos amplified by the algorithms of social media ignited Nepal’s youth to rise up. It was more about optics and emotion than policy and strategy.
He studied Kathmandu district for five years, visiting experts in every field before announcing his independent candidacy for mayor in 2022. Many like me in his own constitunecy did not know who he was and where he came from.
He is a year younger than my architect son, and I saw in him a reflection of my own son’s commitment to serving the nation. I voted for him to be mayor despite his sometimes erratic behaviour, which could be attributed to his youth.
The best sign of his strategic planning, which unsettled septuagenarian and octogenarian politicians, is the he did not grab the first easy option of becoming prime minister in September when GenZ activists offered him the post.&nbsp;
Joining RSP was a masterstroke, as was his challenge to Oli in Jhapa to project national branding. He needed a party platform and Lamichhane needed a popular prime ministerial persona since he himself could not hold the post.
Shah has shown the capacity to take risks when he believes the value justifies the action for the country. Now, he will have to show more strategic thinking on a national scale, as well as understand the delicate geopolitics of Nepal.&nbsp;
He must rise above the kind of crude social media posts that earned him followers on X, but did nothing to erase his erratic and impulsive image.&nbsp;
Some assume that behind his trademark RayBan shades is a closet dictator, and his past remarks about Hitler are still up on social media. He has in the past shown impatience with criticism, unleashing supporters on social media to troll detractors.&nbsp;
Even so, the public seems willing to place their hope on an educated young man with integrity and a proven record for planning at the helm. By tomorrow it will be clear whether the hope Nepalis have held has been fulfilled, and the coming years will show if the RSP will lead Nepalis to a better future.
The voters seem to have shown the door even to the NC despite the fact that under Gagan Thapa, the party had turned a new leaf. A strong government under Prime Minister Balendra Shah heading a carefully selected cabinet and a strong opposition of the NC, UML and other parties for check and balance may be just what we need for a stable Nepal.&nbsp;
Nepalis have collectively always shown maturity in elections. This time they have given a resounding endorsement for integrity and for good governance.

Bells ring all over Nepal

After Thursday’s election, Nepalis are in a wait-and-watch mode. The Election Commission says counting ballot papers will be expedited this time, and the results for the First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) will start being declared within days. In 2022, it took three weeks for the final results to be tallied.&nbsp;
But winning an election is only half the challenge for the parties, forming a government under parliamentary politics is like a complicated mathematical equation.&nbsp;
In 2022, the Nepali Congress (NC) emerged as the biggest party, winning 89 seats. But the UML with 78 seats and the Maoists with 32 formed a minority government. In fact, Sher Bahadur Deuba did not become PM then despite leading the biggest party in Parliament.
This time, there is an unmistakeable Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) wave led by its prime ministerial candidate, Balendra Shah. Besides his own popularity, Shah represents change which most Nepalis are clamouring for after decades of corrupt and feckless coalitions that did not deliver.&nbsp;
The past months of campaigning has seen massive youth engagement on social media through memes, AI clips, and viral images. Digital content that appeals to emotion rather than policy debate between candidates shape electoral outcomes in Nepal and elsewhere. &nbsp;
Shah represents GenZ aspirations, and was their candidate for prime minister. It was only when he declined that Sushila Karki was nominated. None of the political parties in the recent past -- new, old, or revolutionary — have won enough seats to go it alone.&nbsp;
The most recent majority government was formed by the short-lived Communist Party of Nepal after the UML-Maoist merger in 2022. But that rare two-thirds majority collapsed after a power struggle between K P Oli and Pushpa Kamal Dahal. The only party to have won a majority was the NC in the 1991 and 1999 elections. But it is near impossible for it to repeat this success now, even with Gagan Thapa's rebranding of the party.&nbsp;
We have compiled these possible scenarios for election outcome in order of likelihood:
RSP gets a majority
RSP hits the magic 138 to form a government entirely on its own. Balendra Shah wins Jhapa-5, and becomes the new prime minister at 35, the youngest ever to hold the office in Nepal. But danger lurks: there could be a personality clash between Shah and Lamichhane who are both equally ambitious. History could repeat itself.&nbsp;
RSP wins but does not get a majority
RSP is likely to sweep the most votes, but what if it does not secure enough seats for a majority? It would need a coalition partner and Nepali Communist Party (NCP) under Pushpa Kamal Dahal could fit the bill, but only if it has the numbers. The RSP is not likely to team up with the UML or NC.
The NCP is relatively untainted by the 8 September events, and also has former UML defectors like Madhav Kumar Nepal and Bhim Rawal who could bag their rural vote banks. After all, there are no permanent foes in politics. If the royalist RPP and Tarai-based Janata Samajwadi have enough seats, those could be options for the RSP. &nbsp;
NC is second
The NC under the new leadership of Gagan Thapa could become the second biggest force and form a government with RSP in a power-sharing deal with Shah. This would be the most stable scenario since the RSP and NC have competent and idealistic young technocrats. Thapa himself embodies a strong combination of both old and new politics to navigate the system for more efficient government. But then Thapa and the RSP's Rabi Lamichhane do not get along.
NC and NCP form a majority
If the NC becomes the largest party but not by a big margin, it could join up with the NCP and Ujyalo. Teaming up with the UML would likely face backlash with the party and outside. If Gagan Thapa becomes prime minister he will face internal pressure from both Deuba loyalists. Same old story.
Minority coalition of NC, UML and NCP
RSP becomes the first party but does not get a majority, paving the way for the three legacy parties to cobble together a minority government. While this is possible in Nepal’s parliamentary system, such a scenario is likely to lead to more instability and dissatisfaction among young Nepalis demanding change, and even trigger street unrest. &nbsp;

forced-disappearances

THE TWO - YEAR ITCH

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Nepal election live results

Bells ring all over Nepal

The magic 138