<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109101120/636b71259c7e80680e0600b7jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1100" height="1031"/><figcaption>Illustration : DIWAKAR CHHETRI</figcaption></figure>The Nepal Communist Party (NCP) government completes two years in power next month. Despite its <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/two-thirds-empty/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">strong majority</a>, the party’s performance has been underwhelming.It may look like the NCP is just lurching from one embarrassing cockup to another. But there are signs the party may have A Plan. That all along, it has been aiming not for ‘stability and prosperity’, but for the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/spooking-nepalis-by-snooping-on-them/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">extension of control</a>, the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/rule-by-law/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">stiffling of dissent</a>, the intimidation of critics, the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/gagging-the-press-in-installments/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">muzzling of the media</a> and the constriction of civil society. There is even a systematic strategy in place to roll back the development gains of the past decades.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/14-years-after-conflict-no-closure-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">14 years after conflict, no closure in Nepal</a><a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/crushers-of-justice/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Crushers of justice</a>, EditorialGiven that power is centralised in Baluwatar, the plan is obviously being hatched at the Prime Minister’s Office. There may be a <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/which-way-nepali-politics-in-2020/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">power struggle at the top</a> between Prime Minister Oli and his comrade Pushpa Kamal Dahal, but on matters of control and domination the party has <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/one-body-two-heads/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">one body with two heads</a>.The Cabinet has zero accountability and no performance evaluation. Instead, ministers regularly threaten critics with crude scare tactics. They take their cues from Prime Minister Oli, who last week accused editors in the Nepali media of being “without hearts”. It is true that the criticism of Oli across a broad-spectrum of the national media over <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-business-of-politics-undermines-nepals-democracy/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">his dealings with the Yeti Group</a> has been relentless, but we have received no satisfactory explanation of why the consortium gets preferential treatment in leases of former royal property by the Nepal Trust.The government’s actions over the past two years may seem ad hoc and haphazard, but taken together there appears to be a method to the madness. Let’s take the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/no-speaker-no-parliament-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">sidelining the NCP’s own Shivamaya Tumbahangphe</a> and the bullheaded approach to replace a <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/the-rise-and-fall-of-comrade-mahara/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">rape-accused Speaker</a> with a murder-accused Speaker. If we had to cite just one example of why there is <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/getting-away-with-murder/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">impunity and blatant flouting of the rule of law</a> in this country, the appointment of <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/thebrief/2011/05/31/hearing-set-for-case-against-minister-agni-sapkota/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Agni Sapkota</a> to the post of Parliament Speaker is it.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/no-speaker-no-parliament-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">No Speaker, no Parliament in Nepal</a>, Sewa BhattaraiEver since the end of the conflict 14 years ago, the Maoists, the UML, NC and the security forces have been <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/yesterdays-enemies-todays-comrades/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">partners in crime</a> in sweeping their combined <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/state-of-impunity,2976" target="_blank" rel="noopener">wartime atrocities</a> under the carpet. Families of the victims and survivors of the war demand justice and truth, but every government since 2006 has tried to rig the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/12-years-later-justice-is-a-mirage/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">transitional justice</a> mechanism, and not a single perpetrator has been brought to trial. In fact, perpetrators get to lead Parliament.Agni Sapkota is accused of murdering <a href="https://www.himalkhabar.com/news/111027" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Arjun Lama, an activist of the UML</a>, in Kavre in 2005. The irony of it all is that the UML and the former Maoists are now unified in the Nepal Communist Party. After years of struggling for justice for her husband, Purnimaya Tamang finally told this paper this week: “I have lost all hope for justice now.”Pushpa Kamal Dahal may have been technically right in stating last week in Chitwan that he was responsible for the deaths of “only” 5,000 of the 17,000 people killed during <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepals-transition-to-peace-needs-justice/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the conflict</a>. But who is keeping count? If this vulgar non-repentance rattled many Nepalis, imagine what it did to the families of the disappeared and the survivors of that terror-filled decade.One of the provisions of the Comprehensive Peace Accord signed in 2006 was the establishment of a <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/One-To-Many/victims-waiting-for-justice,698" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Truth and Reconciliation Commission (TRC) and a Commission for Investigation on Enforced Disappeared Persons (CIEDP)</a>. But all governments since have conspired to make these commissions ineffectual by appointing party loyalists to their senior positions so that no one ever has to answer for war crimes. This week, the NCP and NC appointed new handpicked commissioners to the TRC and CIEDP.Aside from transitional justice, the NCP has been trying to dismantle just about every sector in which Nepal has done well. There are <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/from-the-nepali-press/taking-away-forests-from-communities/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">attempts to dilute the laws</a> governing <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/who-now-owns-nepals-forests/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">community forestry</a>. Pushpa Kamal Dahal hinted in Madi last week that he intended to change the by-laws governing Chitwan National Park. Under pressure from the fossil fuel lobby, the Finance Ministry is said to be thinking of scrapping <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepals-electric-transport-future-is-here/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the tax rebate on electric vehicles</a>. And this week, the Home Ministry was reported to be drafting a new Social Organisations Act which will allow it to close down non-government organisations it does not like.Taken together, it is not hard to see what the NCP has been working hard to do in the past years. In an Orwellian sense, when the party said ‘stability’, it always meant ‘control’.<h2>10 years ago this week</h2>...The <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=16728" target="_blank" rel="noopener">analysis by Ashutosh Tiwari</a> in <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/issue/486" target="_blank" rel="noopener">issue #486 of 22-28 January 2010</a> shows us how the power centre may have shifted in the last ten years, but the lust for power among our political leaders remains the same. As two Communist alpha males continue to battle it out in the ruling NCP, the latest casualty is the post of Speaker, with the sidelining of Shivamaya Tumbahangphe in favour of a murder-accused candidate: Even accounting for politicians’ lust for power, what’s wrong with our particular democratic structure that keeps on returning the same old politicians to power no matter how many Roman numeral andolans we have?On the outside, our system has the requisite avatar of a democracy (multiple parties, elections, political horse-trading, etc). Dig deeper, and you will find that it’s not the voters who call the shots but the party leaders, who have designed their parties’ internal structures in such a way as to keep them in power for as long as they live. Voters can express resentment, but come election time, they have to choose among the same menu of candidates.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109101120/636b71289c7e80680e0600b8jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="513" height="800">...

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THE TWO - YEAR ITCH

<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107161116/636921f79c7e80680e03a0ffjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000"/>Nepal’s flourishing diversity of ethnicities, languages and cultures and its socio-cultural closeness to Burma made me feel at home as soon as I landed in Kathmandu recently.Unfortunately, another similarity is that both countries have been mired in conflict and are trying to come to terms with truth and justice for past human rights violations.  There is a lot the two countries can learn from each other.Burma (Myanmar) was ruled by notorious military regimes for nearly half a century up until 2011, when political liberalisation began. The United Nations and others have documented widespread and systematic human rights violations by the junta, including war crimes, crimes against humanity and allegations of ethnic cleansing.Burma has the world’s longest-running civil wars, and has seen continuous conflict between the government and many of the country’s ethnic groups since independence in 1948. Both the military and ethnic armed groups have committed crimes including extrajudicial killings, forced displacement of entire villages, recruitment and use of child soldiers, and destruction of property, and war rape.The brutal suppression of pro-democracy movements, and violent crackdowns of protests were common throughout this period of military rule from 1962 to 2011, resulting in thousands of political prisoners. The atrocities against ethnic minority groups continue to this day, with the <a href="https://www.hrw.org/tag/rohingya-crisis" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&amp;q=https://www.hrw.org/tag/rohingya-crisis&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1536731149248000&amp;usg=AFQjCNG9Jk6SjnsFjB6vZ6LOiPDxXWE85A">violations against Rohingya</a> people getting the most international attention at the moment.In comparison, Nepal’s conflict lasted a shorter period between 1996-2006 when most of the rights violations occurred. The violations of human rights during conflicts in both countries are so numerous and egregious that the normal justice system is not able to provide adequate response, which is why <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-struggle-for-transitional-justice/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">transitional justice mechnisms </a>are needed.After 2011 Burma’s military rule was replaced by a military-backed civilian leadership. A comprehensive peace process with ethnic armed groups brought bilateral ceasefires moving up to a <a href="https://www.mmtimes.com/national-news/17022-extracts-from-the-nationwide-ceasefire-agreement.html" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&amp;q=https://www.mmtimes.com/national-news/17022-extracts-from-the-nationwide-ceasefire-agreement.html&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1536731149248000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFCatvjWLrPNer76IDwjivKl6nh7g">Nationwide Ceasefire</a> in October 2015. The current National League for Democracy (NLD) government, elected in a landslide in 2015, has continued <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-myanmar-politics-peace-idUSKCN1160RF" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&amp;q=https://www.reuters.com/article/us-myanmar-politics-peace-idUSKCN1160RF&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1536731149248000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHlFs7iEmrEFX7RmKFS5qH4T1roYg">negotiations</a> between government, military, ethnic armed groups and political parties. Even so, the International Center for Transitional Justice (<a href="https://www.ictj.org/our-work/regions-and-countries/burmamyanmar" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&amp;q=https://www.ictj.org/our-work/regions-and-countries/burmamyanmar&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1536731149248000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFZYp8J36Vu0BAiKxeaJ9db3UEJEw">ICTJ</a>) has been pushing Burma to provide redress to political prisoners and bring victim experiences into the national dialogue.However, the process has been overshadowed by the accusations of a <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-myanmar-rohingya/myanmars-ethnic-cleansing-of-rohingya-continues-u-n-rights-official-says-idUSKCN1GI0C2" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&amp;q=https://www.reuters.com/article/us-myanmar-rohingya/myanmars-ethnic-cleansing-of-rohingya-continues-u-n-rights-official-says-idUSKCN1GI0C2&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1536731149248000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHnY3CEDJon3L9CC2ux35UaP6z-Qg">campaign of ethnic cleansing</a> against the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/living-on-the-margins/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Rohingya Muslim</a> population by the military which has forced some 700,000 refugees to flee to neighbouring countries. A <a href="https://www.ohchr.org/Documents/HRBodies/HRCouncil/FFM-Myanmar/A_HRC_39_64.pdf" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&amp;q=https://www.ohchr.org/Documents/HRBodies/HRCouncil/FFM-Myanmar/A_HRC_39_64.pdf&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1536731149249000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFjnSZCGKZsKvq4mB0Q05qmpvitkQ">UN repor</a>t on 24 August was the strongest condemnation yet and called for top military figures to be investigated for genocide in Rakhine State and crimes against humanity in other areas. It recommended that the case be referred to the International Criminal Court (ICC).Predictably, Burma’s rulers <a href="http://time.com/5381281/myanmar-rejects-un-rohingya-genocide-report/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&amp;q=http://time.com/5381281/myanmar-rejects-un-rohingya-genocide-report/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1536731149249000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHXozMm9CjyFfrgfrqgRcp2s_JVGw">rejected</a> the report. Then last week, a Rangoon court sentenced two Reuters reporters to seven years in prison for <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-45392972" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&amp;q=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-45392972&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1536731149249000&amp;usg=AFQjCNE07dgoa6OG7N-imhGIkuPmFXc8aw">violating a state secrets act</a> while investigating the atrocities against the Rohingya. Domestic and international rights have condemned it as a crushing blow to freedom of the press and another setback for democracy.Nepal’s own 2006 Comprehensive Peace Agreement laid down the steps to establish the Truth and Reconciliation Commission and the Commission on Investigation of Disappeared Persons which were finally established in 2015. Even so, they are criticised for allowing the government to grant amnesty to perpetrators, they <a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2018/02/13/nepal-transitional-justice-proving-elusive" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&amp;q=https://www.hrw.org/news/2018/02/13/nepal-transitional-justice-proving-elusive&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1536731149249000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGebWcVaS1DrMhWBpyjX4uKXTT3HQ">fail to meet international standards</a> and are unconstitutional. The government has extended their mandates for the second time in February, but has not provided them enough technical and financial support.Both Nepal and Burma currently face the challenge of a <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/just-not-justice/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">lack of commitment and delays</a> about the transitional justice process because of the lack of political will to acknowledge the past and provide relief to victims.In Burma, the military did not want to uncover the wrongdoings of its personnel and discussion of massive human rights violations has been largely<a href="http://www.irrawaddy.com/election/news/forgive-those-who-wronged-us-suu-kyi-tells-nld" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&amp;q=http://www.irrawaddy.com/election/news/forgive-those-who-wronged-us-suu-kyi-tells-nld&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1536731149249000&amp;usg=AFQjCNF-f-Fz5PYrT6mZYMmyuPWQSLywog">understood to be off the table</a> during the transition and the peace process. This is because the current government says it is worried that raking up the past might reopen old wounds and further deepen divisions. Burma’s hybrid political structure still equips the military with greater power and influence. This failure to address transitional justice to confront past violations is now impeding the ability to confront the present.A similar <a href="https://www.icj.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/Nepal-TJus-Process-Advocacy-2017-ENG.pdf" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&amp;q=https://www.icj.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/Nepal-TJus-Process-Advocacy-2017-ENG.pdf&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1536731149249000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFjTUV6E4PEQAdkfJwBIUBkGlAJYg">narrative</a> is <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/Rights-right-here-at-home,3956" target="_blank" rel="noopener">being put out in Nepal as well</a>, and this is largely the reason why the perpetrators of conflict-era violations keep getting amnesty without serving actual jail time or prosecution. Since former enemies are now the state, it is in their interest delay, dilute and deny justice. Transitional justice is said to impede reconciliation, and perpetrators argue they were just following orders.Victims, their families, and human rights activists want them to be held to account no matter what. The Nepal government recently began consultations on amendments to the two <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/rocky-transition-to-justice/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">transitional justice mechanisms</a>. While this shows the country may be going in the right direction, the notion that seeking justice impedes reconciliation is still widespread.Justice and reconciliation should not be trade-offs, nor are they mutually exclusive. After periods of repression and conflict, burying the past for the sake of peace might seem desirable but is not  sustainable in the long run. Transitional justice does not merely mean prosecution or reopening old wounds, it holds perpetrators to account and gives a change for them to offer apologies and acknowledgment. Nepal and Burma must remember that addressing past violations and recognising victims as rights-holders, fosters civic trust and the rule of law while promoting reconciliation.Naw Gladys Maung Maung is a political science student from Burma who was recently in Nepal.

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Nepal and Burma delay, dilute and deny justice

The monsoon has got bad press because Nepal’s tourism operators actively told visitors to avoid <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/managing-the-monsoon?%2F">the rainy season</a>. It is time to change that. The reason can be found right here in the vast alpine meadows of Central Nepal where this time of year you can walk on velvet grass of pastures abloom with delicate pink, red and yellow flowers as the mist rolls up the valley. There is no sound except the hum of bumble bees. &nbsp;&nbsp; There are dozens of places across high Nepal called Chaurikharka, which means yak pasture. But this particular Chaurikharka in Rukum East located at an altitude of 4,000m stands out for its serene beauty, rustic charm and bucolic setting. There is just the occasional chime of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/when-yaks-go-so-does-culture">yak bells</a> in the distance, and the sharp whistle of herders corralling sheep. &nbsp;&nbsp; The grass shoots are so fragile that one hesitates to step on them, the rounded ridges appear and quickly vanish in waves of mist. With the<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/before-the-next-monsoon"> arrival of monsoon</a>, these meadows are a soothing shade of green dotted with millions of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/review/the-anatomy-of-a-flower?%2F=">multi-coloured flowers</a>. Until very recently, it took a week or so to hike up to places like Chaurikharka, but with the expansion of the road network even to these far-flung mountains in the lap of Dhaulagiri, they are much more accessible. It is just a three-hour uphill from the Mid-Hill Highway on the border between Baglung and Rukum East.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250802130828_a0b06b494d751b2144ffbbf10894ea64b29e8aed844bc8c66171783abfaf4e16.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20250802130828_a0b06b494d751b2144ffbbf10894ea64b29e8aed844bc8c66171783abfaf4e16" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1365" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon"> </figure>  Purists would say that such easy access devalues the sanctity of these remote high meadows, but it also means more people will be moved to treasure the experience, appreciate <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/natures-fragile-gift-to-nepal">the value of nature </a>so they can take steps to protect it.&nbsp; To be sure, the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/deadly-monsoon-in-nepal-turns-deadlier">monsoon season can be challenging for road travel</a>. The roads are rough even at the best of times, and in the monsoon they become muddy and treacherous, often blocked by<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/monsoon-deluge-in-nepal"> landslides</a>. But that could be precisely the kind of adventure that the more intrepid visitors crave. Improved road connectivity has already made Chaurikharka and places like Badimallika &nbsp;and other sacred lakes in the mountains of western Nepal popular with domestic tourists. What is driving this traffic is the urge to go to exotic new places and share videos and selfies on social media. Several of Nepal’s travel vloggers have visited Chaurikharka and popularised the place, enticing followers on TikTok or YouTube to retrace their footsteps. But even as they become more popular, these fragile and once-remote places should be protected from over-tourism.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110736_f97110b7cdc3e7f80d5877690948fc9f4c95a09c583deb23b07355491e6c5446.jpg" data-media-id="editor_8" data-image-id="20250731110736_f97110b7cdc3e7f80d5877690948fc9f4c95a09c583deb23b07355491e6c5446" data-rendition-name="original" width="1083" height="699" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon NT"> </figure>  <h2>INCREASING FOOTFALL</h2> Chaurikharka is located in Bhume Rural Municipality of East Rukum, near the scenic valley of Dhorpatan in Baglung district. Even in the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/monsoon-culture">middle of the monsoon</a>, there is a steady stream of Nepali hikers trooping to these high pastures – especially during festival days like Saune Sankranti which this year was on 17 July and actually marks the auspicious beginning of the monsoon here. “This year the rains have not been as heavy and there have been some clear mornings when we could see everything from Dhaulagiri to Machapuchre,” says Khageswar Bhandari, who trekked up here from the road. “The flowers, the greenery and the snowy mountain views make this an incredibly unique place.”&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250802130824_1b9e26f2e9853fdfe69154bb42a7c9ea6da4bf4940efc1da99b304dcfbd7d3d9.jpg" data-media-id="editor_10" data-image-id="20250802130824_1b9e26f2e9853fdfe69154bb42a7c9ea6da4bf4940efc1da99b304dcfbd7d3d9" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1152" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon"> </figure>  Chaurikharka is worthwhile to get to in any season, but it has a different charm during the monsoon. Word has spread and because it is now easy to get to from Baglung or even Pokhara, people have been flocking here.&nbsp; “Holidays and Saturdays see the largest crowds, with up to 500 visitors every day,” says ward chair Mankaji Pun of Bhume.&nbsp; There was a time not too long ago when local herders brought sheep, goats, cows, buffaloes, horses, and mules to graze here during the monsoon. Although there are still livestock around, animals have been replaced by visitors taking selfies. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-monsoon-and-nature-s-arithmetic">The monsoon, and nature’s arithmetic</a>, Tom Robertson Ward Chair Pun says infrastructure development is his main priority. A foot trail to Chaurikharka was built last year by the Tourism Division Office in Kohalpur, but access via the Raniwas-Koipa road section still remains challenging.&nbsp; “If we get more budget, we can improve the road and facilities to make Chaurikharka the main tourist attraction of this region,” says Bhume Municipality Chair Hom Prakash Shrestha. “After that, we hope to promote Chaurikharka as a top tourist spot.”&nbsp; Economic activity is also picking up with the arrival of visitors, but there seems to be a need to manage the makeshift sheds made of corrugated sheets that spoil the beauty of the place. Tea shops and lodges are also available but facilities are basic. Kuldeep Neupane took a three-day trip from Ghorahi in Dang to visit Chaurikharka recently, and says: “This is an ideal trip to make a quick getaway and let nature recharge your mind and body. And it is much more fun with a tent, to watch the sunrise over the Himalaya or the mist blowing in.”

Visit Nepal in the monsoon

Two weeks ago, Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli announced jubilantly on social media that Nepal had achieved a historic annual growth of 81.8% in exports. He was right. Nepal’s trade did take a great leap forward compared to last year. But the dramatic rise was mainly due to processed soya bean oil.&nbsp; However, Nepal does not produce the edible oil it exports. In fact, the soya and palm oil that make up 44% of total exports are imported from Southeast Asia and South America, and simply re-exported, mostly to India.&nbsp; Under the SAFTA (South Asian Free Trade Area) Agreement, Nepal can export products to India duty-free if it has at least 30% value-added. Nepal’s traders have taken advantage of SAFTA even though the edible oils they export do not reach that value addition threshold. “The 30% value addition requirement is often only on paper,” says former commerce secretary Purushottam Ojha. “It is clear that simply packaging edible oils in Nepal does not fulfil the terms of the trade agreement.” Prime Minister Oli is aware of this, and even called Nepal’s export figures “fake” at an earlier event. The government is relying on other iffy figures to suggest that Nepal’s economy is strong and getting stronger. For example, the value of imports rose by 13.25% in 2024-25 compared to the previous fiscal year.&nbsp; Some of it was due to a jump in electric vehicle imports worth Rs 31.76 billion, but mostly it was because more wholesale soya oil was imported to be re-packaged and sold in India. The very fact that the government boasts about increased imports is an indication of how much it relies on taxing them for revenue. Touting such trade figures cannot be the basis to claim an economic rebound.&nbsp; “A jump in the value of imports can be interpreted as an increase in purchasing power, but it is not evidence of a stronger economy,” says economist Keshav Acharya. “Even though imports have increased, Nepal's domestic production and productive capacity have not improved.” Nepal Rastra Bank's semi-annual economic activity study report shows that industrial production was down in the first six months of the last fiscal year. This despite an increase in the number of new industries registered and investment commitments. Out of the Rs70.2 billion proposed foreign investment, Nepal received only Rs17.9 billion last year.&nbsp; Meanwhile, the rate of capital formation was limited to 24% last year, which is lower than the year before, suggesting that new investment, job creation and economic expansion all declined. If domestic production does not improve in relation to this year’s inflated trade figures, the outflow will put pressure on foreign exchange reserves like it did three years ago. At that time, Nepal borrowed from the IMF under its Extended Credit Facility Program to kickstart the economy.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025080710084_2cdaaa5795828c4a7de93a0604ba884ef0a8b8f24cccd939f6c24e279ab6058f.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="2025080710084_2cdaaa5795828c4a7de93a0604ba884ef0a8b8f24cccd939f6c24e279ab6058f" data-rendition-name="original" width="1633" height="723" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal's bubble economy NT"> <figcaption>Source: NEPAL RASTRA BANK</figcaption> </figure>  The macroeconomy is on firm footing with foreign exchange reserves at a comfortable Rs2,520 billion in May, up 23% from last year. This was largely due to remittances, and partly due to a falling NPR exchange rate. Real estate transactions and the stock market index have also been climbing as a result of government policies to revive the sector.&nbsp; However, former executive director of Nepal Rastra Bank Nar Bahadur Thapa cautions: “This is not organic growth, it is the result of deliberate policy decisions to relax rules on real estate and stock markets transactions.” In reality, the sharp rise in land prices have increased the cost of production, and excessive monetisation of the real estate has become the main source of Nepal’s economic woes. The central bank has announced a slew of new policies, shifting the terms of loan repayment for industrialists and entrepreneurs, reducing interest rates, and injecting more working capital — all designed to inject adrenaline into the real estate and stock market sectors.&nbsp; When he was governor, Mahaprasad Adhikari made several financial reforms during the latter half of his tenure to stimulate the economy, including tightening credit flow.&nbsp; By the last fiscal year, additional financial reforms had resulted in a credit expansion rate of around 8%. As the pace of credit expansion slows, real estate prices have started to fall. This is actually beneficial to the economy, because it lays the foundation for improvements in land-related entrepreneurship, production, and the construction sector. Just because real estate and the stock market transactions increase, it does not indicate an economic turnaround — especially when manufacturing and productive sector continues to languish.&nbsp; “It is foolish to believe that real estate and the stock market have magically revived our economy. Agriculture employs more than half of the population, but it is in decline. Investment in the productive sector has not increased, and job creation has not increased.” Two years ago, Nepal’s industrialists, business leaders, and political leadership predicted a recession amidst a sluggish business, declining market demand, large-scale job loss, and a shrinking real estate and share market.&nbsp; Still, the economy grew by 3.36% in fiscal year 2023/24. In fact, Nepal’s economy has grown nominally over the last two decades even when all sectors of the economy are in decline.&nbsp; Says Keshav Acharya: “The growth in trade, real estate, and the stock market are bubbles. The real economy remains stagnant.”

Nepal’s bubble economy

The final investigation report on the crash of a Saurya Airlines jet on 24 July 2024 at Kathmandu airport has revealed flaws in the carrier’s technical operation procedures, poor monitoring by the Civil Aviation Authority of Nepal (CAAN) and gaps in the airport’s emergency response. Eighteen people including a child were killed, and only the captain survived as the plane plunged seconds after takeoff, crashing within the airport perimeter. This was the latest in a series of aircraft accidents in previous years, and further tarnished Nepal’s already poor aviation safety record and contributed to the country being retained in the EU’s air safety list. &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; The circumstances in the Saurya crash were different from the Yeti Airlines crash in Pokhara in January 2022 that killed all 72 on board, and two Tara Air crashes in February 2016 and May 2022 on approach to Jomsom that together claimed 45 lives. However, all four tragedies were a result of negligence of carriers and crew, failure to follow procedures, regulatory slackness, and overconfidence. The Saurya crash, especially, was a glaring example of how an ailing airline broke its own rules to allow passengers, including non-employees, a joy ride to Pokhara on a maintenance ferry flight. CRASH REPORT The Final Investigation Report prepared by the Aircraft Accident Investigation Commission and released on the first anniversary of the crash last week carried a long list of rules that were ignored or broken, and of regulatory failure. The first mistake was to cram spares, tools and inflammable chemicals needed for the aircraft’s C-Check in Pokhara into the cargo hold flouting its own ground handling procedures.&nbsp; There was no check-in of passengers, some of whom were not even employees – even though regulations say only flight and maintenance crew should be on board a maintenance positioning flight. Many brought their own luggage into the plane and stored it unsecured in the cabin. There was no flight attendant to give a safety briefing to passengers. The load and trim charts given to the flight crew were rough estimates, and the total takeoff weight of the plane was 18,300kg plus or minus 200 kg. That would still have been all right, but there was a glaring mistake in the speedchart Saurya pilots were using to calculate the minimum takeoff speed (known as VR), and it had been wrong ever since the 21-year-old aircraft entered service with the airline in 2017. FAULTY DATA&nbsp; The Commission probed Flight Data Recorder inputs from previous takeoffs of the Canadian-built CRJ200-LR in 2023-2024 and found that the undetected error in the speedchart had caused the plane to pitch up at an abnormal rotation rate at least 18 times on previous takeoffs.&nbsp; Any rotation rate more than 3°/sec is regarded as unusual. But on at least two occasions, this aircraft with tail number 9N-AME had rotation rates of 5.8°/sec and 5.5°/sec, the second one was when the pilot who survived was flying in March 2024.&nbsp; On this particular day, the plane’s rotation rate was 6.5°/sec, causing it to go into a deep stall soon after takeoff, the Commission report said. Essentially, the plane was not flying fast enough down the runway to take off safely.&nbsp; It is not yet clear whether excess weight, unsecured luggage, wrong centre of gravity were also factors, but relying on a faulty speedchart for the given takeoff weight, the captain flying pulled back on the yoke before the plane had reached takeoff speed and at a pitch angle that was too steep. The investigation report says the plane then went into a deep stall and started banking right with the stick shaking. At this point, the flight officer on the right hand seat is heard on the cockpit voice recorder saying: “Whoa, whoa, whoa. Sir, Sir, Sir…” It then banked left before the pilot flying turned the plane sharply to the right again in an evasive action to avoid the parking aprons of the international and domestic terminals. Had he not done so, there would have been a disaster of a much greater magnitude at Kathmandu airport that day. The plane scraped the runway with its right wingtip, collided with a container having helicopter spare parts, and plunged into a gully east of the runway, exploding in a fireball. The investigation also noted that the impact forces seemed to be survivable for some occupants. The fire trucks took unnecessarily long to reach the site even though it was inside the airport perimeter. The absence of an ICAO-standard runway strip, inadequate rescue drills, lack of training, and a blocked emergency service gate leading to the crash site were cited as other factors. &nbsp;&nbsp; <h2>Timestamp of a Disaster</h2>  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110724_39cdd04693994ce6e55a5b302905c0fa4884fe85bed21ff0779bb1439f3a5725.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20250731110724_39cdd04693994ce6e55a5b302905c0fa4884fe85bed21ff0779bb1439f3a5725" data-rendition-name="original" width="778" height="826" loading="lazy" alt="Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy NT"> </figure>  11:10:34 - The Saurya Airlines CRJ200 on the takeoff roll from runway 02. It had a takeoff weight of about 18,300kg, but the pilot’s speedcard had a previously undetected mistake about the minimum takeoff speed. 11:10:55 -The plane with tail number 9N-AME goes into deep stall soon after takeoff because it does not have enough speed to lift its weight. The plane also has an abnormally steep nose-up attitude.&nbsp; 11:11:03 - Without enough speed to generate lift, the plane banks right, then left and right again in CCTV photos taken from the domestic apron (below). If it had not banked right, it could have hit the aprons and terminal buildings. Seen parked is Saurya’s other CRJ200 with tail number 9N-ANM.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110732_608132f7225c649125cca2691dd6a6bf930984c5b359e888d7ad9e5eacce3afd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20250731110732_608132f7225c649125cca2691dd6a6bf930984c5b359e888d7ad9e5eacce3afd" data-rendition-name="original" width="770" height="555" loading="lazy" alt="Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy NT"> </figure>  11:11:08 - The plane scrapes the runway with its right wingtip, and falls into the gully. The captain is thrown off the left side of the cockpit and survives. 11:11:15: Plane explodes in a fireball inside the airport perimeter. Firefighters take time to reach the site because of lack of access road and a blocked gate. Read the full investigation report <a href="https://www.tourism.gov.np/files/9N-AME%20AIC%20Final%20Report.pdf">here</a>.

Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy

American artist Peter Makela was in Nepal in 2022 on a Fulbright scholarship when he experienced the Matya festival in Patan in which devotees made the rounds of the city’s shrines.&nbsp;
He joined the procession, walking through 2,600 stupa and 140 bahal of the town. That immersion left a lasting impression.
As part of Gallery Mcube’s international residency program in Patan, he put his inspiration to canvas in the exhibition Yala Yatra: Walking, Working, Worshipping. The exhibition also coincides with this month’s Matya festival.&nbsp;
Makela has visited Nepal often in the past 11 years but he mostly stayed in and spent his time around Boudha. “This time I stayed in Patan, put the sites I wanted to visit on my map, and off I went,” he tells us. “Each of my artwork is inspired by the stupas and shrines in Patan that I visited.”
The stupa and Ganesh are recurring motifs in his watercolours, and the elephant gods are located in chaityas — reflecting the interplay and blending of the Hindu and Buddhist faiths in Kathmandu Valley.&nbsp;
The stupas and Ganesh are painted in vivid red, yellow, blue and green against abstract backgrounds meant to represent the sky.
“I use the sky as a backdrop because the sky has no border,” says Makela. “The four colours represent the four elements, the different Buddha families and also lights bouncing off of a rainbow.”
The use of just four colours for all the artwork stands out, and combined with the absence of heavy canvases, frames or stands render Makela’s art striking in its simplicity.&nbsp;
The Ganesh is always holding something and the art also portrays the elephant god’s sacred vehicle, the mouse.
While his vibrant stupas and Ganesh reflect the tangibility of Patan’s tradition and heritage, it is as if the backdrops with their shades of grey and red and yellow capture the soul of the city’s shrines.
“If you look closely, there is a sense of form and formlessness at the same time,” he says.&nbsp;
Makela walked 108 kora around the shrines during his exploration of the town, and in the process developed a spiritual connection with Patan’s heritage and traditions.&nbsp;
The exhibition connects with visitors on a deeper, more spiritual, level as well. And with it, they feel a sense of pride as well as the need to urgently preserve Patan’s heritage for future generations.
“Peter’s inclination and approach towards Nepali art and culture is fascinating, and it reflects in his work,” says Mcube curator Manish Lal Shrestha, whose international artist residency program promotes Nepal’s cultural heritage. &nbsp;&nbsp;
Yala Yatra: Walking, Working, Worshipping
1-5 August&nbsp;
10AM-7PM
Gallery Mcube, Patan

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Walking, working, worshipping in Patan