<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111016110/636d12189c7e80680e0a98bajpeg.jpg" alt="" width="664" height="450"/>Nepal Rastra Bank’s report last month was badly timed — it was a bad idea to sound a warning that Nepal is going belly up just as the country was grinding to a halt for a month of Dasain-Tihar-Chhat festivals.The indicators were ominous: Nepal’s foreign currency reserves fell to $11.1 billion in September, much below the figure for last year and only enough to pay for 8 months of imports. There has been a 76% increase in the import bill to a record Rs352 billion last fiscal year — despite a pandemic slowdown.In the first two months of this fiscal year, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/defying-predictions-nepals-remittances-still-high/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/defying-predictions-nepals-remittances-still-high/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1636429484700000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHKGPEf-eEDtwjn0f_p_HMzrqYQGw">overseas remittances that had held steady despite the pandemic</a> went down by 6.3% to Rs155 billion.One of the holy days of Tihar last week was dedicated to Goddess Laxmi, and many prayed for individual wealth and prosperity. We should have been praying for the country’s economic survival.Just those two figures for falling remittances and rising imports should have been enough to sound the emergency alarm. But fatalism is so steeped in Nepal’s governance culture that we hope things will sort themselves out.After all, if things go really wrong, Pashupatinath will come to the rescue. But the Lord Protector of Nepal must be shaking his head at the disarray of the state.We have come to expect lack of accountability in self-dealing politicians and elected officials, but the judiciary used to be relatively untainted and independent.The violation of the principle of separation of powers by <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/what-is-happening-to-nepals-supreme-court/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/what-is-happening-to-nepals-supreme-court/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1636429484700000&amp;usg=AFQjCNG-raVzHQQBlpr5oUCza97BMC7wkA">Chief Justice Cholendra SJB Rana</a> and the mutiny in the Supreme Court has dragged the judiciary also into dysfunction.With the court system paralysed, Rana has been reported to be looking for a ‘graceful exit’, and apparently proposed a leave of absence until his term expires. The <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/who-wants-early-elections-and-why/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/who-wants-early-elections-and-why/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1636429484700000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHWRzSQmjSbl2C65i3KvLsEqN0uUA">top leadership</a> of the main parties have been silent about the fate of Chief Justice Rana, who after all was instrumental in overturning K P Oli’s dissolution of the Lower House which <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-court-orders-deuba-to-succeed-oli/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-court-orders-deuba-to-succeed-oli/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1636429484700000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHI-krjS3d3YX690askSFTe2LB0vA">put Deuba in office</a> on 14 July.They also have all kinds of pending cases in the Supreme Court, and do not want antagonise a Chief Justice in case he survives this crisis. Rana has reportedly used the holidays for intense political lobbying through emissaries. That would likely entail a quid pro quo over not starting an impeachment process in Parliament in return for future favours.Whether Rana remains chief justice or is forced to step down is mixed up with politics — after all it was the failure of politicians to sort out their power struggles in Parliament that allowed the judiciary to have such a magnified role in who gets to be in government and who doesn’t. There is so much corruption and vested interest in the political nominations to the Supreme Court that just removing Chief Justice Rana will not stem the rot.Besides, the real emergency Nepal faces today is not about who succeeds Rana or if the coalition remains intact till elections, but the fate of the economy.Remittances pay for imports, and inflows are down and imports are up. Hard currency reserves to finance <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/blood-sweat-tears/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/blood-sweat-tears/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1636429484700000&amp;usg=AFQjCNH52fe2VOfxxaDWmxbqr8rkJcg-Hg">Nepal’s imports, mainly of petroleum</a>, food and other items are falling. Exports did go up, but the trade deficit rose to Rs270 billion in the past two months.Besides, Nepal’s main item of export is processed palm and soya oil that depend on massive imports of raw material. A <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-less-and-less-able-to-feed-itself/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-less-and-less-able-to-feed-itself/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1636429484700000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHt2gsBj5b0itg1RhxrL9unH8Y3-Q">growing asymmetry between imports and exports</a> means the balance of payments is now Rs83.4 billion — double what it was in July.Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba pledged at COP26 to reduce Nepal’s carbon footprint, and Energy Minister Pampha Bhusal is pushing for a transition to electric transport. They seem to have finally realised that having a petroleum import bill more than all exports combined is not sustainable.Destructive post-monsoon rains will reduce rice harvests by 20%, which means increased food import. What will we use our remaining foreign exchange reserves for: to buy food or fuel? It might to be an either/or.There does not seem to be a sense of urgency about this emergency in the Finance Ministry. It must act immediately to increase taxes on luxury items, encourage local agriculture production and invest heavily in infrastructure to create local jobs.The economic crisis is a result of political neglect and disarray. Trouble is: we cannot wait for the politics to sort itself out to fix the economy this time.

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Urgency about Nepal’s economic emergency

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110161132/636d19939c7e80680e0ac827jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="664" height="450"/><figcaption></figcaption></figure>Even as Nepal tries to recover from the impact of the pandemic, the country’s economic indicators released this week by the central bank show dismal performance in the first two months of the fiscal year.The report by the Nepal Rastra Bank shows that Nepal’s foreign currency reserves fell to $11.1 in mid-September, 6.6% below the figure for last year, this is enough to pay for only 8 months of total imports.Even more worrying is that <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/defying-predictions-nepals-remittances-still-high/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">overseas remittances that had held steady despite the pandemic</a> for the past two years have now started declining. Nepalis abroad sent home Rs155 billion in the past year, which is 6.3% below the same period last year.Despite the pandemic, remittances had risen by 8.1% in fiscal year 2019-2020. Experts attributed that to overseas workers sending money home as the economic crisis hit families back home, and not necessarily due to higher earnings.The concurrent decrease in foreign currency reserves to finance <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/blood-sweat-tears/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Nepal’s imports, mainly of petroleum</a>, food and other commodities, is seen as an indicator of an impending economic crisis. The main reason for the current downturn is shrinking remittances, which prop up Nepal’s economy.Indeed, compared to 2019-2020, the past year has seen a steep 76% increase in imports to a record Rs352 billion, mainly due to a rise in the import of petroleum products, gold, silver and other items, according to Rastra Bank figures.Even though exports went up by 115% in the same period to Rs44.4 billion, it did not put much of a dent on the trade deficit which has risen to Rs270 billion in the past two months of the fiscal year. This represents a 71% increase in the trade gap compared to last year.The <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-less-and-less-able-to-feed-itself/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">growing asymmetry between imports and exports</a> means that the country’s balance of payments situation is now Rs83.4 billion in the red — up from Rs38.7 billion in July.With the alarm bells ringing, the government has drastically reduced the amount of money Nepalis can officially exchange before traveling abroad from $1,500 to $200-500. This week, further austerity measures were announced, including a ban on the purchase of vehicles for official use.The negative trend in economic indicators could not have come at a worse time. Just as the country was recovering from the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/the-real-cost-of-nepals-second-wave/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">economic impact of the pandemic</a>, it was hit by extreme rainfall this month which killed more than 110 people across the country, and destroyed up to one-third of the country’s ready to harvest rice crop.The Ministry of Agriculture estimates that nearly 90,000 hectares of rice fields were severely damaged by <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/post-monsoon-rain-ruins-nepals-crops/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">the unseasonal post-monsoon rains</a>, and paddy losses will amount to more than Rs8 billion. Lumbini Province is said to have suffered the worst, with more than half of the initially reported damage nationwide.The unprecedented destruction comes just as farmers and officials were optimistic about a healthy rice harvest because of a healthy monsoon season. Rice is such an important component of Nepal’s economy that it will impact on the GDP, economic growth, and have a knock-on effect on the trade deficit because more rice will now need to be imported.Last year Nepal produced 5.6 million tonnes of rice from 1.4 million hectares of paddy fields, up 1.3% from the previous year. However, rising income levels of Nepalis has also meant that rice consumption is growing, and the country had to import Rs 51 billion worth of rice last year, compared to only Rs23 billion in 2019.Analysts say the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/are-nepalis-really-eating-more-rice/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">sharp increase in rice imports</a> cannot be attributed only to rising consumption, explaining it by the rise in demand from Nepal’s breweries and the dramatic rise in domestic beer consumption.

Nepal’s remittances, forex reserves drop

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109191124/636bf0a94b0ad905ca02f024jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1618" height="1000"/><figcaption>Pushpa Kamal dahal and K P Oli factions within the ruling Nepal Communist Party is on the verge of a formal split. Illustration: BHANU BHATTARAI</figcaption></figure>After a year of stagnation due to the Covid-19 crisis, Nepal’s economy has just started getting back on track. But political uncertainty once more threatens to derail it.Just as Nepal Rastra Bank put out an optimistic economic report last week, Nepal plunged once more into instability as the ruling Nepal Communist Party (NCP) <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepals-1-party-2-central-committees-system/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepals-1-party-2-central-committees-system/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1609215418397000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFz9xXx-qQQ18yjS74HPf9Ap1Xpdg">headed for a split</a> after Prime Minister Oli’s dissolution of the Lower House on 20 December.All macro-economic indicators were looking up: foreign exchange reserves and balance of payment situations have improved, the trade deficit has narrowed, remittances from Nepali workers overseas is robust, bank lending rates are going down, and as economic activity picks up even tax revenue is looking satisfactory.Imports of industrial raw materials have hit Rs38 billion in November, which is only slightly lower than last year, and capital investment is back to pre-Covid levels indicating that the wheels of the economy are starting to turn again.All these are indications that despite Covid-19, Nepal’s economy has not been hit too badly — at least at the macro level. However, the dissolution of the Lower Home last week, daily protest rallies on the streets, and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/step-back-from-the-brink/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/step-back-from-the-brink/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1609215418397000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHlqurvAcevQGFke2PyBadt7SErdQ">moves to split the NCP</a> do not bode well for the economy. Snap elections in April-May next year will be expensive, and will eat a big hole in the budget.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109191124/636bf0ac4b0ad905ca02f025jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1125" height="750"><figcaption>Protests erupted across the country against the Prime Minister’s move to dissolve the House of Representatives early last week. Photos: BIKRAM RAI</figcaption></figure>Three private sector organisations have expressed deep concern about the country being pushed towards uncertainty. They said continuity in economic policy and investment are only possible when politics is stable.“There is a real need now to accelerate infrastructure development, create jobs and spur economic growth, but because the NCP government’s focus is elsewhere, we are wasting the opportunity,” says economist Biswo Poudel.Nepal’s foreign exchange reserves have hit $12.65 billion, the highest ever, and enough to pay for a record 14 months of imports. Most developing countries have foreign exchange reserves only for 4-5 months of imports. Just in the past five months, the treasury added another $1 billion in reserves.While <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/business/remittances-from-nepali-workers-rise/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/business/remittances-from-nepali-workers-rise/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1609215418397000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHNXypcj_xP95YRL0I-zxi7vZNF6A">remittances have defied expectations</a> by not decreasing drastically, Nepal’s imports also fell because of the lockdown. Petroleum imports came down in the first half of 2020, and because there were no tourists, the import of luxury items also fell.Experts say that the foreign exchange reserves should be put to good use to import industrial machinery and capital investment to boost manufacturing and infrastructure, which in turn will generate employment and create lasting downstream benefits for the economy.Says Poudel: “We are not putting this huge foreign exchange reserve to productive use. It is being wasted.”<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109191124/636bf0af4b0ad905ca02f026jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1125" height="750"><figcaption></figcaption></figure>Nepal’s current account position is also finally looking healthy after four years of recurring deficits. This year, the current account savings were at Rs20.46 billion, indicating that the deficit fell sharply this year because of the drop in imports. Similarly, the balance of payments is also looking better than previous years because imports fell by 10.6% in August-November, and exports rose by 10.8%.The average bank lending rate has fallen to 9.5% this year compared to last year’s 12%, and this could encourage investors. Says economist Keshav Acharya: “This is the perfect opportunity for those interested in starting quality medical care, better schools, and financing infrastructure and manufacturing.”In fact, there is no lack of money in Nepal, what the country lacks is the capacity to spend. The government wastes billions every year on infrastructure projects that never get built. Even in the first five months of this fiscal year, only Rs35.1 billion has been spent, which is 10% of the development budget.Economist Poudel says the government has enough resources to accelerate the construction of 500km of fast-track highways. “You need the political will to go ahead with it, and the slow pace of work on infrastructure is proof that such political will is absent,” he adds.Indeed, there are several hydropower projects with 700MW capacity under construction, but no one seems to be in a hurry to complete them because of delays in putting up transmission lines. Similarly, the Kathmandu-Tarai expressway, Melamchi Water Supply Project, Tama Kosi Hydropower project, Sikta Irrigation and the Mid-Mountain Highway are all languishing.Prolonged political uncertainty will delay these projects further, and remove the benefits that Nepal can accrue from its healthy macro-economic position.

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Instability to cost Nepal dear in 2021

On Tuesday, leader of the monarchist RPP once again gathered on Kathmandu’s streets to deliver fiery speeches, but this time there was no arson and looting and no need for riot police to fire live rounds or tear gas.
RPP leaders demanded the release of their members including vice-president Rabindra Mishra and MP Dhawal Shamsher Rana were arrested during the violent <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/republicans-and-royalists-on-nepal-s-streets">28 March protests at Tinkune </a>which left two dead. 
They denounced the current leadership of the main parties, demanding the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/nepal-party-reincarnating-hindu-monarchy">restitution of Nepal as a Hindu kingdom</a>. They also said the government was responsible for the fatalities on 28 March because it provoked its rally with a tear gas attack even before it started.
It has now been revealed that the police fired at least 100 live rounds from high powered assault rifles at the crowd. Twenty-one of the 120 injured received bullet wounds, and most of them were bystanders and people trying to reach home. 
Tuesday protest on the Ring Road in Balkhu was much more subdued, and comparatively fewer RPP supporters showed up. The arson and vandalism in the previous protest appears to have cost some support for <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/the-ghost-of-monarchy-returns-to-haunt-nepal">former king Gyanendra </a>especially for the anointment of medical tycoon and bank defaulter <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/street-politics">Durga Prasai </a>as ‘commander’ of the Tinkune rally.
Some monarchists acknowledge Gyanendra’s mistakes when was king 2001-2008, but say he has had a lot of time to reflect on his shortcomings and seems more disciplined and committed. His supporters have tried to build on nostalgia among some Nepalis for<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/why-invest-in-nepal"> domestic stability </a>and international respect that <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/if-birendra-was-alive-nepal-could-still-be-a-monarchy">the monarchy</a> commanded. 
“Nepalis were promised better service delivery, opportunities for the underserved, as well as better, more honest use of state resources, but the <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=16992">people in leadership </a>have not been able to deliver on their commitments,” says RPP leader Prakash Chandra Lohani. “The gap between their rhetoric and reality has widened, the people feel betrayed, and the respect Nepali people had previously had for them has changed to revulsion.” 
Indeed, many commentators have warned the three main parties and their <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/politics-as-usual">serial prime ministers</a> who have ruled Nepal for much of the past 30 years should address rising public anger with them, and see the writing on the wall.
‘<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-government-changes-again">The UML, NC and Maoists</a> must introspect about their conduct,” warns Gunaraj Luitel, editor of Nagarik, in an op-ed this week. ‘These leaders for life may save themselves from simmering public anger, but they will not be able to save the system. The monarchist wave can only be dispelled when citizens are assured of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-s-local-election-gives-power-back-to-people">better governance</a> through <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/latest/real-world-training-for-youth-leaders">younger leaders</a>, and reforms.’ 
Rifts between radical royals who are gunning for a return to <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/mob-movement-and-mayhem">Panchayat-style absolutism </a>and moderate monarchists who favour a constitutional king have also weakened the movement somewhat. The split between the RPP and RPP-Nepal cost the royalists numbers in Parliament in 2022, and both parties denounced the violence last month, albeit shifting the blame on the government.
The irony is that the same royalists who want to scrap the republican Constitution had formed electoral alliances with the UML during the 2022 elections. RPP-Nepal chair Kamal Thapa contested the 2022 election with the UML. Thapa has not taken part in the last two rallies, saying he will only be a part of a movement under a national flag, and not a RPP party banner.
For his part, the RPP’s Rajendra Lingden is said to be hesitant to censure some of his party’s more radical royalists for fear of fissure within his ranks, despite his aversion to Durga Prasai’s role. 
Analysts have questioned why <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/old-is-still-gold-in-nepali-politics">supporters of the monarchy </a>have decided to reestablish an institution that would not ultimately have executive decision-making power. There are doubts about whether authoritarian-minded Gyanendra will be satisfied being a <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=13957">ceremonial king</a>. 
Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-s-deja-vu-on-black-friday">Nepal’s déjà vu on Black Friday</a>, Sonia Awale
"The Nepali people will not accept <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/forgotten-woman-who-sheltered-communist-activists">an absolute monarchy </a>at this point of time, and both the public as well as <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=8371">king Gyanendra</a> are fully aware that there is no other possibility beyond a constitutional monarchy," asserts the RPP’s Lohani. “The traditional monarchy’s institutional capacity might have been enough to meet the needs of feudal Nepal, but an absolute monarchy is impossible both in concept and practice in the context of <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/Economic-Class/waiting-for-an-industrial-revolution,784">modern day Nepal</a>.”

New year revolutions

Besides multiple <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/republicans-and-royalists-on-nepal-s-streets">street demonstrations </a>that gridlocked Kathmandu’s traffic for the past weeks, public discourse in Nepal has also been dominated by dangerously <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/air-pollution-is-more-dangerous-than-smoking">high air pollution levels</a>. Caused mostly by hundreds of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/wildfire-season-starts-early-in-nepal">forest fires </a>raging across the country, the smoke contains suspended soot particles that harms <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/playing-with-poison">human health</a>. Thursday’s rain have cleared the air somewhat, and many people will soon forget how bad the air quality was. But the time to address the roots of next summer’s fire season is now.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250411060440_d1a119716a9031aadfdd611d299348d436842d376a03e664b8d773957a237524.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20250411060440_d1a119716a9031aadfdd611d299348d436842d376a03e664b8d773957a237524" data-rendition-name="original" width="502" height="540" loading="lazy" alt="Wildfires"> <figcaption>EXTINGUISHED: Forest fires raging all over Nepal in the week after 3 March (above) reduced air quality, creating a public health hazard in Kathmandu and across the country. Each red dot is a fire detected by infrared sensors on the NASA Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS) satellite. But the rain on Thursday doused most of the fires (below) with more rain forecast over the weekend.</figcaption> </figure>  The reason everyone was talking about air pollution was because the<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-is-going-up-in-smoke"> smoke from wildfires</a> was visible. But much more toxic are the invisible and odourless <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-doubles-its-carbon-footprint">gases from vehicular and industrial emissions </a>which have always been there. The theme of World Health Day on 7 April this week was ‘Healthy Beginnings, Hopeful Futures’ dedicated to <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/comment/saving-more-mothers-and-babies">preventing maternal and newborn deaths</a>. It is estimated that in Nepal, 30% of neonatal mortality can be blamed on air pollution. But that is only part of the story. Harmful as fine particulate matter is to human health, carbon monoxide, nitrogen dioxide, ground-level ozone and other gases in vehicular emissions are more hazardous to health. While the concentration of suspended particulate matter tinier than 1.5 microns (PM2.5) is closely monitored, these toxic gases are invisible, not measured much, and the public is not aware about the dangers they pose. Surface ozone is produced by the interaction of various gases found when <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/fossil-fuels-poison-air">burning fossil fuels</a>. Besides being poisonous, ground level ozone contributes up to 0.23°C to <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-s-mountains-are-melting">global warming</a> because it is also a greenhouse gas. A new policy brief by the Clean Air Fund titled The Case for Action on Tropospheric Ozone blames surface ozone for a half a million premature deaths every year, 54.8% of which are in South Asia. Ozone also stunts plant growth and reduces crop yields by 26% globally, and 11% loss in <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/economic-benefits-of-saving-the-ecology">forest productivity</a>, the report adds.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250411060456_aa02a923f8b27544ae54d0220162678f5bbb5eeb8fc3c466173c22c49b3e9a85.jpg" data-media-id="editor_11" data-image-id="20250411060456_aa02a923f8b27544ae54d0220162678f5bbb5eeb8fc3c466173c22c49b3e9a85" data-rendition-name="original" width="998" height="724" loading="lazy" alt="Gas Chambers"> </figure>  Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/bad-air-and-polluted-politics">Bad air and polluted politics</a>, Sonia Awale Ground-level ozone is not emitted directly into the air like other gases, but is formed when oxides of nitrogen (NOx), carbon monoxide (CO) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) released from automobile tailpipes or industry smokestacks react chemically with each other in the presence of sunlight. The main source of carbon monoxide in Kathmandu Valley are its 1.2 million two-wheelers. “Usually the concentration of carbon monoxide is 200-500 parts per billion (ppb), this has increased up to 3,000 in Kathmandu. Meanwhile, ground-level ozone has gone from 70-80 ppb to 150 ppb,” says Ravi Sahu, regional air quality specialist with the Kathmandu-based International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD).&nbsp; Sahu says <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/no-smoke-without-fire-p7vb9dcj">rampant forest fires of the past weeks</a> have also added to carbon monoxide and ozone in the air, not just the fine particles that make up the visible smoke. He adds, “There isn’t much awareness about <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/poisoning-the-air-we-breathe">ground-level ozone and carbon monoxide</a>, we need to urgently look into it.” A distinction must be made between good and bad ozone. Stratospheric ozone protects living beings from harmful ultraviolet (UV) radiation from the sun.&nbsp; Tropospheric ozone can again be separated into two types: ozone in the free atmosphere which is a greenhouse gas much more potent than carbon dioxide, and ground-level ozone which has adverse impacts on health and agriculture. ‘Cutting tropospheric ozone presents a unique challenge as it requires smart and fast action across multiple greenhouse gases and air pollutants, as well as multiple economic sectors,’ notes the Clean Air Fund's policy briefing. ‘It is a growing and neglected problem that needs an integrated approach on both a local and global level to tackle climate change and air pollution together.’ Dying young There was a time when Nepal made it to international news bulletins only if there were fatalities on Mt Everest. Now, Kathmandu’s bad air frequently makes headlines all over the world. This past week, the concentration of PM2.5 that harms human health was up to 40 times the WHO recommended guideline — adding to the poisonous gases already present from vehicle emissions. The Department of Environment says 40% of the pollution in the past weeks was from wildfires sparked by nearly 6 months without substantial rain over central Nepal. Most of the rest is from vehicular and industrial emissions from Kathmandu itself and across the southern border. NASA’s Fire Information and Resource Management System (FIRMS) which issues daily maps of fires, showed hundreds of blazes raging across Nepal on Wednesday, mainly in Chitwan, Parsa and along the East-West Highway.&nbsp; “If we look at the figures for the last few years, it is clear that wildfires have become the biggest source of air pollution, they are seasonal but have overtaken vehicular emissions,” says urban planner and environmentalist Bhushan Tuladhar. “Forest fires, stubble burning, and open burning of garbage are the bigger problems now. Nepal, India, Bangladesh, and Pakistan are at risk every year, we shouldn’t further delay in finding solutions,” warned air quality expert Bhupendra Das during an event on air pollution organised on 7 March by the Nepal Forum of Environmental Journalists (NEFEJ).&nbsp; Indeed, studies have shown that in winter 60% of the air pollution over Kathmandu is transboundary from the south, and in November it is compounded by smoke from crop residue burning by farmers in India and Pakistan blown in by prevailing winds. Forest fires are a regular pre-monsoon occurrence in Nepal, often intentionally set by farmers and herders to stimulate new grass growth for livestock. Winter rains have failed for eight of the past ten years, and this means the fires often spread out of control. The other reason for the increase in wildfires is the doubling of forest fires to 46% of the country’s area in the past 25 years. But this has happened simultaneously with outmigration, with some mountain districts losing 30% of their population between 2011-2021. With less pressure on forests for fodder and firewood, the undergrowth of community forests is loaded with dry fuel just waiting for a spark. The bowl-shaped topography of Kathmandu, Pokhara and other valleys further concentrates pollutants as they are trapped by surrounding mountains. But a year with a high number of wildfires is usually followed by a year or two with fewer incidents. For example: there were 6,537 fires in 2021 but the following year the number was down to 1,528. There were 5,216 fires last year, this year the number has already reached 1,800, and the trend is likely to be broken. Heavy rains forecast for the coming days are expected to douse some of the fires and clean up the air. But the damage has been done: Kathmandu residents of all age groups this week crowded clinics and hospitals with burning eyes, itchy throats, difficulty breathing, headaches, and dizziness. But in the longer term, soot particles that are tiny enough to jump the blood-air divide in lung capillaries do not just cause Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD), asthma, but also cancers, heart attacks, strokes, birth defects and other chronic diseases. The latest Air Quality Life Index (AQLI) report by the University of Chicago shows that the annual concentration of PM2.5 in Kathmandu’s air rose from 17.87µg/m3 in 1998 to 31.33µg/m3 in 2022. Air pollution has got worse by 75% in Kathmandu in 25 years. During this time, air pollution has reduced the average life expectancy of Kathmandu’s residents by 3.5 years. According to the Health Effects Institute in Boston, dirty air is among the biggest public health concerns in Nepal killing over 42,100 a year. The adverse impact of high levels of air pollution is not limited to public health, it is seriously affecting tourism. Operators in Pokhara this week said that there were many negative online posts by visitors unable to see the famous panorama of Machapuchre and the Annapurnas even from Sarangkot. Aviation is also affected, as planes have to circle sometimes for hours burning a lot of fuel because of runway visibility being below minima at Kathmandu airport. The higher fuel cost is just passed down to customers, making air tickets in and out of Kathmandu some of the highest in the world. Kathmandu, with a population of four million, has not implemented a concrete policy to curb toxic air despite having formulated various action plans and repeated commitments by the government to protect the environment and control air pollution. The Department of Environment’s 2017 Air Quality Management Action Plan for Kathmandu put forward a policy to reduce air pollution caused by vehicles which was approved by the Cabinet, but has yet to be put to practice. The action included the immediate implementation of the Euro 5 emission standard to reduce pollution emitted by vehicles. However, Nepal has not even been able to implement Euro 4 standards so far. India, meanwhile, has already moved forward with the implementation of the Euro 6 standards. Says Ravi Sahu: “Air pollution in Nepal is not just about air pollution, it has ties to tourism, aviation, the economy so we must be prepared for annual conditions like forest fires, and this requires urgent interdisciplinary collaboration.” &nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250411050452_821d09e283d8a590f1369bfb71b9b7fc6d950726e0651ea86c6488d04deb1742.jpg" data-media-id="editor_15" data-image-id="20250411050452_821d09e283d8a590f1369bfb71b9b7fc6d950726e0651ea86c6488d04deb1742" data-rendition-name="original" width="839" height="784" loading="lazy" alt="Silent Killers"> </figure>  &nbsp;

What is invisible is more dangerous

82 in २०८२

Here in the mountains of far-western Nepal, the biggest threat to life and limb is gravity. Women collecting fodder fall from trees, boys grazing goats fall off cliffs, heavily loaded tractors plunge from dirt roads carved out of steep slopes. There is nothing to be done about those who die on the spot. But for the severely wounded there is only one hospital: Bayalpata. And it is there that <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CJzWlnYd0ZM&amp;t=8s" target="_blank">orthopaedic surgeon Mandeep Pathak</a> is the last hope for many wounded people. Pathak, 42, is too modest to tell us how many lives he has saved over the past 10 years he has worked at Bayalpata. But hospital records show he has performed more than 4,000 operations in the past decade, many of them so patients did not suffer permanent physical disabilities. Pathak also did 800 major life-saving surgeries in that time. “I treat patients with injuries, but I wish I could also treat poverty,” Pathak says, emerging from Bayalpata’s surgical theatre one recent afternoon. <div class="embed-block"><iframe width="700" height="415" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/CJzWlnYd0ZM?si=s_rkbU4YDaw87gqH" title="YouTube video player" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" allowfullscreen></iframe></div> Sudurpaschim Province in Nepal’s far-west is far away from everything: from Kathmandu, from adequate medical care, from food security, and far from the reach of government services. It has suffered state neglect for centuries, its men mainly migrating to India for seasonal work to families who depend on subsistence agriculture. Pathak remembers the searing sadness he felt when a patient once told him, “Doctor, I sold the last of my rice to pay to come here, please give me a medicine that I can take on an empty stomach.” Pathak was born in Kathmandu, and after getting his MBBS from Kathmandu University, he got an MD from The Philippines. At a time when many Nepali doctors and staff nurses were emigrating, Pathak did not just return to Kathmandu but decided to go to one of the remotest districts in Nepal to serve those most in need. The hospital was established in 2009 in the village of Bayalpata, and has been managed by the non-profit <a href="https://www.nyayahealthnepal.org/" target="_blank">Nyaya Health Nepal (NHN)</a> as a public-private partnership treating 100,000 patients a year for no fees at all. NHN is now preparing to hand over the running of the hospital to the Sudurpaschim provincial government so its <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/this-is-how-to-upgrade-nepals-rural-health" target="_blank">model of hospital management</a> can be replicated.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250414130456_b59dabd4604a24426a55fe91c0e5866b5029858bdb4c4028c331557aeb5408ae.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20250414130456_b59dabd4604a24426a55fe91c0e5866b5029858bdb4c4028c331557aeb5408ae" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Bayalpata hospital"> <figcaption>Bayalpata hospital in Achham.</figcaption> </figure>  People from not just Achham but surrounding districts, and from as far away as Humla, bring patients to Bayalpata, sometimes walking for days. Some with complicated pregnancies are brought in stretchers, young children with broken arms walk into the emergency, and sometimes there are mass casualties when a tractor or bus falls off a road. And Pathak is always there with his team performing triage, and doing orthopaedic surgeries that would be difficult even in Kathmandu. Recently, his team did a hip replacement at <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/state-of-the-art-rural-hospital" target="_blank">Bayalpata Hospital</a>. Mild mannered, modest, soft-spoken, hard-working, professional are the words families of patients who have been treated at <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-s-rural-lifeline" target="_blank">Bayalpata Hospital </a>use to describe Mandeep Pathak. But the surgeon is too busy to let all this get to this head.&nbsp; Asked why he does not emigrate like his peers or get a lucrative position at a private hospital in Kathmandu, Pathak answers simply, without a trace of self-importance, “I do not think I could get the satisfaction or sense of fulfilment anywhere else.” When travelling to attend medical congresses overseas or visit family in Kathmandu, Bayalpata has other doctors to take care of patients, but many wait patiently till Pathak returns for their consultation or surgery.&nbsp; When he returns from seminars abroad after learning the latest skills, Pathak’s suitcases are not full of clothes or presents, but titanium bone implants, external fixation rods, or intramedullary nails to be used in <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/altruistic-healthcare-models-in-nepal" target="_blank">surgeries at Bayalpata</a>.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025041414040_5356278472c1eb2b9e4af1d593d6234cc8dc5e5161a8c614197c01abefadbd80.jpg" data-media-id="editor_8" data-image-id="2025041414040_5356278472c1eb2b9e4af1d593d6234cc8dc5e5161a8c614197c01abefadbd80" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1368" loading="lazy" alt="surgery"> </figure>  Before Bayalpata Hospital was established, most people suffering broken bones had to travel down to Dhangadi or Nepalganj for treatment. No more. Although Pathak’s specialisation is orthopaedic oncology, he is mostly treating fractures and rejoining broken bones.&nbsp; Now as Bayalpata’s Hospital Director, Pathak also has administrative and fundraising duties. He has to take the 10-hour ride down to Dhangadi often to meet various Sudurpaschim ministries to release the hospital’s budget — that is sometimes more difficult than the most complicated surgery. Recently, he had to cancel an appointment with the Chief Minister to rush back to Bayalpata because there was a patient who needed emergency surgery. “I told myself, let me save this patient first, then I will try to save the hospital,” he recalls.&nbsp; Once, when he had to be away for a month on emergency surgery training in the US, the family of a 90-year-old woman who had dislocated her hip after falling from a staircase was waiting for him to return. Her son told Pathak: “Doctor, either put her out of her suffering, or cure her.” Pathak told him it was too dangerous to operate at her age, but the son said his mother was in so much pain it was worth the risk. The operation was touch-and-go, but it was successful. The woman who had been brought in on a stretcher, walked out of the hospital three days after the operation.&nbsp; A few months later, a 27-year-old woman was brought into the ER bleeding profusely from an arm mangled by a thresher machine. Even in that state, she was breastfeeding her baby. Pathak welled up seeing this display of selfless motherhood, as he wheeled her into surgery. She needed three operations, but now has full use of her hand. <div class="embed-block"><iframe width="700" height="415" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/xJdxLD0hBqo?si=mOpM2R_DsYL88Lfg" title="YouTube video player" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" allowfullscreen></iframe></div> It is the sense of achievement from such recovery that keeps Mandeep Pathak here in this isolated village in the middle of nowhere. Bayalpata Hospital has not just saved lives, it also saves families from poverty because they do not have to take sick relatives to expensive city hospitals.&nbsp; In January, a woman was brought to Bayalpata with both hands broken. She said she had taken a fall, but Pathak did not believe her. When alone in the surgery, she finally admitted that her husband had beaten her.&nbsp; It was her husband who had brought her to hospital for treatment, but she refused to file a police report. Pathak quietly put both her arms in casts, thinking about the poverty, patriarchy and injustice in society that he is unable to treat.