<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111413118/637230519c7e80680e0c255ejpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1360" height="680"/><figcaption>Photo credit: PROJECT SYNDICATE</figcaption></figure>Today’s energy crisis is potentially worse than similar previous ones – particularly the 1970s oil shocks.Consumers around the world are hit by high prices, businesses worried about energy supplies, political leaders and central bankers struggling with inflation, and countries confronting balance-of-payments pressures.In the 1970s, only oil was involved, whereas this crisis encompasses natural gas, coal, and food. In addition to stoking <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/10/consumer-price-index-may-2022.html">inflation</a>, today’s crisis is transforming a previously global market into one that is fragmented and more vulnerable to disruption, crimping economic growth. And, together with the geopolitical crisis arising from the war in Ukraine, it is further deepening the world’s great-power rivalries.This crisis did not begin with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but started last year when <a href="https://www.iea.org/news/surging-electricity-demand-is-putting-power-systems-under-strain-around-the-world">energy demand</a> surged as the world emerged from the Covid-19 pandemic. That is when China <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-28/china-s-coal-shortage-means-higher-prices-for-the-whole-world">ran short</a> of coal and prices shot up. The global market for liquefied natural gas (LNG) then tightened, with prices <a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/oil-and-gas/our-insights/petroleum-blog/reflecting-on-2021-global-lng-and-european-pipeline-flows">skyrocketing</a>, and <a href="https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts/">oil prices</a> rose as well.Normally, with rising energy prices, a country like Russia would have increased its natural-gas sales to its main customer, Europe, above the minimum contracted volumes.Instead, it stuck to its contracts, even though it could have produced considerably more. At the time, it appeared that Russia was trying to force prices up. But, instead, the Kremlin was preparing for war.Because Europe <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/why-russia-drives-european-gas-prices-2022-01-21/">depended</a> on Russia for 35-40% of its oil and natural gas, Putin assumed that the Europeans would protest the invasion, but ultimately stand aside. Fixated on his self-appointed mission of <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2022/06/10/europe/russia-putin-empire-restoration-endgame-intl-cmd/index.html">restoring</a> what he views as Russia’s historic empire, he did not anticipate how they would respond to an unprovoked war next door.Looking ahead, five factors could make today’s energy crisis even worse. First, Putin has opened a second front in the conflict by <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-31/russia-to-cut-gas-exports-to-shell-orsted-over-rubles-dispute">cutting back</a> on the contracted volumes of natural gas that Russia supplies to Europe. The goal is to prevent Europeans from <a href="https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2022/05/19/historic-day-as-eu-sets-mandatory-gas-storage-level-for-winter-supplies">storing enough supplies</a> for next winter, and to drive prices higher, creating economic hardship and political discord.In his <a href="http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68669">speech</a> in June at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, Putin made his reasoning clear: “Social and economic problems worsening in Europe” will “split their societies” and “inevitably lead to populism … and a change of the elites in the short term.”As it is, Germany is now anticipating the need for gas rationing, and Minister for Economic Affairs Robert Habeck, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/germany-says-energy-crisis-may-trigger-lehman-like-contagion-2022-6">warns</a> of a “Lehman-style contagion” (referring to the 2008 financial crisis) if Europe cannot manage today’s energy-induced economic disruptions.Second, a new or revived nuclear deal with Iran is <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/french-source-pessimistic-us-iran-can-quickly-resolve-nuclear-deal-differences-2022-05-12/">unlikely</a>. Thus, sanctions on the country will not be lifted – and that means Iranian oil will not be flowing into world markets anytime soon.Third, although Saudi Arabia may step up its oil production to help stabilise oil markets after US President Joe Biden’s visit, no gusher is likely to follow, because there does not appear to be a large amount of <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/03/oil-markets-opec-has-limited-spare-capacity-russia-is-less-relevant.html">extra oil</a> in Saudi Arabia (or in the United Arab Emirates) that can be produced on short notice.Meanwhile, many other oil-exporting countries cannot even return to their <a href="https://qz.com/2115735/opec-countries-are-producing-less-oil-than-they-said-they-would/">previous levels of production</a>, owing to a lack of investment and maintenance since the pandemic.Fourth, <a href="https://www.aa.com.tr/en/energy/oil/oil-up-despite-low-china-demand-over-covid-19-lockdowns/35208">China’s demand for oil</a> has been significantly reduced by its “zero-Covid” lockdowns, which have sharply curtailed economic activity. But if it lifts many restrictions, a big increase in oil consumption and demand will follow.Lastly, however tight the market for crude oil, there is even more tightness in the <a href="https://www.vortexa.com/insights/products/global-refining-industry-struggles-to-stem-growing-market-tightness/">refining sector</a> that produces the gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel that people actually use. This has developed into a complex, highly interconnected worldwide system. Russia was refining products that it was shipping to Europe, while Europe was sending gasoline that it did not need to the US East Coast, and so forth.In some places, the system is going all out, with US refineries already operating at about <a href="https://www.marketplace.org/2022/05/23/u-s-oil-refiners-margins-smash-records-but-few-plan-to-build-more-plants/">95% capacity</a>. But the system overall still cannot keep up with demand. Russian refineries are functioning <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russian-oil-refiners-signal-deeper-cuts-refinery-runs-amid-overstocking-2022-03-31/">only partly</a>, depriving Europe of oil products; and not enough European gasoline is reaching North America.Chinese refineries are operating at less than <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-19/massive-oil-refining-capacity-idle-in-china-even-as-prices-soar">70%</a> capacity. Some four million barrels per day of refining capacity have been <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/why-is-there-worldwide-oil-refining-crunch-2022-06-22/">shut down worldwide</a>, owing to the pandemic, new regulations, and challenging economics. Add in the risk of accidents, poor policy decisions, and a hurricane knocking out refineries on the US Gulf Coast, and the situation could get even worse.That said, a few countries could still boost production. Canada – the world’s <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/24/canada-to-increase-oil-gas-exports-amid-push-to-displace-russia">fourth-largest oil producer</a>, after the US, Saudi Arabia, and Russia – could provide extra barrels in collaboration with its major market, the US.And US shale oil production is back in gear and could add 800,000 to <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-04/shale-seen-adding-a-million-barrels-a-day-is-back-to-booming">one million barrels</a> per day of new production this year – far more additional production than the rest of the world combined.Other factors that could mitigate the crisis include price changes and how consumers respond. In May, US gasoline <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-25/us-drivers-begin-to-balk-at-record-gas-prices-stifling-demand">demand</a> was 7% less than in May 2019, before the pandemic. Some of that, however, may be the result of more people working from home.An economic slowdown could also dampen prices. S&amp;P’s latest global <a href="https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/bafed008810e4de0814abc612ca32706">purchasing managers’ index</a> points to a weakening of economic growth, with US manufacturing activity “slipping into a decline … to a degree only exceeded twice” – at the height of the pandemic lockdown and during the 2008 financial crisis.Likewise, European growth has <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/euro-zone-business-growth-slowed-sharply-june-pmi-2022-07-05/">slowed</a> sharply to a 16-month low. Such slowdowns could reduce demand and lower energy prices. But, of course, they also will strain the Western alliance.The next six months will be critical, testing whether Europe can maneuver its way through the coming winter. In what Habeck <a href="https://news.sky.com/story/bitter-but-necessary-germany-turns-to-coal-to-replace-russian-gas-12636775">called</a> a “bitter” but “necessary” decision, Europe will need to burn more coal.In the difficult months ahead, there will need to be more informed collaboration between government and industry that manages the energy flows on which modern economies depend.© <a href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/">Project Syndicate</a>Daniel Yergin, Vice Chairman of S&amp;P Global, is the author of <a href="https://www.penguin.co.uk/books/320756/the-new-map-by-yergin-daniel/9780141994635">The New Map: Energy, Climate, and the Clash of Nations</a> (Penguin, 2021) and <a href="https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/The-Prize/Daniel-Yergin/9781439110126">The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money, and Power</a>, for which he won the Pulitzer Prize.Read more: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/fueling-nepals-economic-crisis/">Fueling Nepal’s economic crisis</a>, Sonia Awale

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5 reasons the energy crisis could deepen

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111413114/63722ef39c7e80680e0c24edjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1280" height="852"/><figcaption>Photo: NEPALI TIMES ARCHIVE</figcaption></figure>Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba was forced to sack Janardan Sharma this week, but only after his finance minister became a political liability because of sinking neck-deep in scandals.Instead of trying to resolve Nepal’s growing economic crisis, Sharma inducted yes-men with no finance background into the ministry, and ousted the Rastra Bank governor for blocking a money-laundering scam. He then involved an unauthorised ‘expert’ at a late-night budget drafting meeting to change tax rates, and later alleged deleted CCTV footage implicating him.Much of the credit for exposing Janardan Sharma goes to Nepal’s mainstream media which investigated his wrongdoings, as well as exposing corporate houses including the Chaudhary Group, Shanker Group, Saurabh Group and Jagadamba that stood to benefit directly from Sharma’s tax rebates.Deuba coddled his finance minister till the end despite growing criticism from within his Nepali Congress, as well as pressure from Sharma’s Maoist Centre party. All this meant that the prime minister and his finance minister took their eyes off the ball as Nepal’s economy started going into free-fall.This week Sri Lanka declared it did not have cash to import any more fuel, and officially declared bankruptcy. Nepal’s officials have said the country is not in the same debt trap, but there are many indications that the crisis is deepening.The clearest yet was Nepal Oil Corporation (NOC) asking the government this week to implement 10 austerity measures to reduce petroleum consumption, including by reimposing the two-day weekend, odd-even traffic rule, quota at filling stations, discouraging vehicle use, car pooling, and a ban on import of petrol and diesel vehicles.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111413114/63722ef69c7e80680e0c24eejpeg.jpg" alt="" width="800" height="565"></figure>Illustration: RABINDRALast week, the government reduced the tax on petroleum imports to reduce petroleum prices, but the NOC warned of “dire consequences” because it was running out of money.“Reducing gas prices by reducing taxes was absolutely of no use in the long run. They could have instead used tax money to promote and invest in sustainable measures,” says climate negotiator Manjeet Dhakal.He adds: “By reducing the tax the government is essentially abusing democracy by claiming to reduce the burden to the people in the guise of improving its chances in elections.”It is because of such short-sightedness that Nepal’s economy was in trouble long before Covid and Ukraine. The banking sector had a liquidity crisis because it had over-extended loans to real estate speculators. Stagnant overseas remittance, falling exports and a jump in imports had led to a growing trade deficit, and depleted foreign exchange reserves.However, some experts still believe that Nepal’s macroeconomic picture is sound, a healthy monsoon so far could mean a good rice harvest, and the INR-NPR peg cushions Nepal from the worst impact of the global crisis.They also say the fuel crisis provides Nepal with the perfect opportunity to accelerate the shift away from fossil fuels in transport, industry and households. Nepal needs to wean itself off petroleum not just to reduce its per capita carbon footprint, but to cut consumption of fossil fuels which now make up 20% of the total import bill.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111413114/63722ef89c7e80680e0c24efjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1150" height="1488"></figure>In the last nine months, Nepal spent Rs218 billion importing petroleum products, which is 82% higher compared to the same period last year. This is nearly 20% of the country’s total imports, and is worth nearly double the income from all exports.Switching to electric public transport and battery vehicles to reduce the petroleum import bill by just 10% would save the county at least Rs21 billion a year.However, from July-December 2021, Bagmati Province alone saw the registration of 81,227 new vehicles, 75,573 of which were motorcycles and scooters. If they had been electric two-wheelers, fuel costs would have been reduced.“At this rate, we maybe fast approaching the fate of Sri Lanka and the only way ahead is maximising the use of domestically generated electricity primarily in the transport sector,” says Bhushan Tuladhar, board member of Sajha Yatayat which is starting electric buses in Kathmandu starting this week.“We have policies in place, but crucial details are missing such as how to incentivise electric buses, dedicated charging stations and coordinated management of public transport,” Tuladhar adds.Electric mass transit has long been identified as a cost-effective solution, and the government needs to facilitate loans for electric buses which are about five times more expensive than diesel ones, or subsidise them so that the private sector can invest in them.Industry experts are reworking Nepal’s Nationally Determined Contribution target submitted to the UNFCCC (Framework Convention on Climate Change) in 2021 with a particular focus on electric public transport.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111413114/63722efb9c7e80680e0c24f0jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="3214" height="2143"></figure>Photo: AMIT MACHAMASI/NEPALI TIMESThey have proposed an increase in sales of electric public transport to 60% by 2030, reduction in custom and excise duties for electric buses, grants and soft loans to procure them, and ensuring at least three provinces operate electric public transport by 2025.The other low-hanging fruit is a shift from LPG to electricity in households and restaurants, but transmission lines and distribution need to be upgraded so the grid can handle the load.In the Tarai, electric rickshaws are becoming popular, and municipal biodegradable garbage and crop residue can all be turned into compost to reduce imports of chemical fertiliser.All of this will also help Nepal meet its global climate targets set at Glasgow during the COP26 last year to achieve net-zero by 2040, and 45% forest cover by 2030.Nepal therefore needs to do its bit to reduce its petroleum imports to save both the economy and ecology. But that needs political will, which is sorely lacking during this election year.Says Bhushan Tuladhar: “If we don’t act even now, it will be too late. We need to work on energy, economy and environment simultaneously by involving both the government and the private sector.”Read more: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/sky-high-fuel-price-hits-nepals-tourism-airlines/">Sky high fuel price hits Nepal’s tourism</a>, airlines, Nepali Times

Sonia Awale

Fueling Nepal’s economic crisis

Recent outrage in Sikkim over an Indian Army expedition climbing <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/saving-kangchenjunga">Kangchenjunga</a>, the world’s third-highest peak, has spiked attention to the need to balance mountaineering jobs with indigenous reverence for sacred landmarks. Kangchenjunga (8,586m) is not a peak as much as it is a mountain range with 16 peaks above 7,000m on the border between India and Nepal -- the word itself means ‘five treasures of the snows’ in Tibetan. Some of the highest prominences like Kangchenjunga West and Kangbachen are in Nepal, while the Main, Central and South Peaks are on the border. Climbing the peak from the Indian side has been banned since 2001 because the indigenous Lepcha community there regard the mountain as the abode of Dzoe-nga, the patron deity of Sikkim, which was an independent Himalayan Kingdom until it was annexed by India in 1975.&nbsp; Buddhists in Sikkim say their saint, Padmasambhava, recognised the mountain as a protective spirit. The state has declared the base of the mountain Kangchenjunga National Park, which covers an area one-third of Sikkim. ‘The act of scaling this sacred peak is not only a matter of serious concern but also a violation of both the prevailing legal provisions and the deeply held religious beliefs of the people of Sikkim,’ read a letter from Chief Minister Prem Singh Tamang (Golay) to Amit Shah, India’s Minister of Home Affairs and Cooperation.&nbsp; Tamang continued: ‘We further request Your Honour to take up the issue with the Government of Nepal to ensure that no future expeditions are permitted on the sacred mountain, in deference to the deeply held beliefs and cultural values of the people of Sikkim.’ Kangchenjunga was climbed for the first time exactly 70 years ago by a British team who told King Tashi Namgyal, the Choegyal of Sikkim, that they would not set foot on the summit. Since then, there have been about 532 successful climbs of the peaks and 52 have died while trying.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250628060616_5c268e08cf49f36b79ef9b31933fc2d9bf9a6f65414e7ca06dd028bf04e7ccc1.png" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20250628060616_5c268e08cf49f36b79ef9b31933fc2d9bf9a6f65414e7ca06dd028bf04e7ccc1" data-rendition-name="original" width="1782" height="1178" loading="lazy" alt="Kangchenjunga: too sacred to climb NT"> <figcaption>Indigenous communities in Sikkim held purification ceremonies following the Indian expedition to Kangchenjunga. Photo: THE VOICE OF SIKKIM / FACEBOOK</figcaption> </figure>  <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/peak-climbing-season-2025-s4abrxny">This spring climbing season</a> alone, there were 70 climbing permits for foreigners issued for Kangchenjunga by the Nepal government, and made it to the top while one French climber died.&nbsp; One of the expeditions this year was an Indian Army team led by Col Ranveer Jamwal, who has summited the highest peaks on all seven continents, and Mt Everest thrice. Jamwal’s team was on the final leg of a ‘<a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/india/nimas-summits-mt-kangchenjunga-concludes-historic-har-shikhar-tiranga-mission-successfully/articleshow/121341315.cms?from=mdr">Har Shikhar Tiranga</a>’ (The Tricolour on Every Peak) mission to plant the Indian flag at the highest points of each of India’s 28 states. Kanchenjunga was the last peak they had left, and the hardest, but the expedition put five climbers on the summit. What seems to have incensed the Sikkimese is that while it has banned climbing the mountain from its side, it was an Indian military expedition that went to Nepal to climb the mountain. After news broke of the climb in May, the Sikkim Indigenous Lepcha Tribal Association asked people to observe purification ceremonies in temples across the state. Mayalmit Lepcha of the association acknowledged that the Sikkim government was also partly at fault: “I don’t think such an expedition could have gone forward without the state government being informed, so it could have done something to intervene. It shows weakness. What’s done is done, all we can do is carry out these sanctification ceremonies.”&nbsp; In 2000, one year before Sikkim’s ban, the state allowed an Austrian team to attempt Kanchenjunga’s northeast face for a fee of $20,000, on agreement that they would stop 10m before the summit. Despite this, there was outrage over the expedition on the grounds that it violated Indian laws regarding the defiling of religious sites and Sikkim’s rights to maintain its culture after merging with India. The Indian Army expedition was also seen to have circumvented Sikkim’s law and violated religious sensibilities by going through Nepal. While the team may have thought they were respecting Sikkim’s beliefs by finding a way to complete the mission, the people of Sikkim saw it as defilement.&nbsp; The somber mood of the Sikkim people at the ritual contrasts sharply with Jamwal’s sense of accomplishment. “Without a doubt, the most difficult summit of my life,” he told reporters after the climb. “It tested every ounce of our will.”&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250628060616_ccfe079c78dab788d19fe2080ee8a5d5dcb11de4157316f6d94e5964da097157.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20250628060616_ccfe079c78dab788d19fe2080ee8a5d5dcb11de4157316f6d94e5964da097157" data-rendition-name="original" width="787" height="377" loading="lazy" alt="Kangchenjunga: too sacred to climb NT"> <figcaption>Prayer flags along the Sikkim-Kangchenjunga trekking route. Photo: TREKKINGININDIA.COM</figcaption> </figure>  The <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/the-rise-and-fall-of-nims-purja">controversial Nepali-British mountaineer Nirmal Purja</a> was also on Kangchenjunga this spring the mountain, on a mission to summit all 14 8,000m peaks for a third time. He echoed Jamwal about the tough conditions: “The conditions above camp were extremely tough, with deep snow and challenging terrain—more crevasses than usual.” Nepal’s government has not said anything publicly, but it is unlikely that it will ban climbing on Kangchenjunga, since it is becoming popular with expeditions because of its technical challenges, and overcrowding on Mt Everest. Nepal does have bans in place for some of its mountains out of respect for local beliefs. <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/to-open-machapuchre-for-mountaineering-or-not">Mt Machapuchre</a> (6,990m) the imposing pyramid that looms over Pokhara, for example, is seen as an icon of purity by the Gurung people and a symbol of Vishnu by the Hindu communities who live at its base. A strict climbing ban has been in place since 1957, when a British expedition led by Col Jimmy Roberts stopped 45m short of the summit – either because the last bit was too difficult or out of deference to local sentiments.&nbsp; Khumbila that stands above Namche Bazar is only 5,761m high, but like Kanchenjunga is considered the protector deity of the Sherpa people. Gauri Shankar on the Nepal-China border, called Chomo Tseringma by the local community, was off-limits between 1965 and 1979 due to its association with Lord Shiva and Gauri, his consort. Although expeditions are now allowed, there are not too many takers. In Tibet, climbing Mount Kailash is prohibited by the Chinese government because it revered by the Hindus, Buddhists and followers of the Bon faith. Even Mt Everest is regarded as sacred, and its Sherpa name is Chomolungma, Goddess Mother of the Earth.&nbsp; Economically, climbs on Kanchenjunga bring in decent revenue. This climbing season, the 41 permits, at $1,800 each, brought in $73,800. This is somewhat comparable to Makalu, Lhotse, and Annapurna I, but these numbers are dwarfed by the $4 million in <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/the-everest-industry">Everest permits</a>. Revenue from Kanchenjunga climbing permits is something Nepal could potentially forgo if necessary, but the expeditions also provide jobs to hundreds of high altitude guides, porters, base camp support staff and other logistical costs.&nbsp; As the third highest mountain in the world and the tallest in India, there will always be significant motivation to climb it from the Nepal side, especially as climbers are drawn by the technical climbing at high altitude.

Kangchenjunga: too sacred to climb?

The debate about who is less accountable to the public: politicians or bureaucrats is as old as Nepal’s democracy itself.
Some blame politicians for being beholden to the businessmen who finance their electoral campaigns, and are forced to return the favour with contracts and kickbacks when in power.&nbsp;
Others say it is civil servants who are neither civil nor servants, and know the inner workings of the system to exploit loopholes – they then teach ministers, MPs, mayors, or ward chairs which juicy projects can be squeezed. And everyone gets their share.
In reality, it is probably not a case of either, or. Both have their hands deep in the honey pot. Corruption is now such a given that yet another exposé in the mainstream press, like the latest visit-visa scam, does not raise eyebrows anymore.
We may have to edit Lord Acton’s famous quote to say that in Nepal we do not even need absolute power to corrupt absolutely. The ruling cartel has divvied up the spoils, so that no one ever faces charges. The three parties all know about the skeletons rattling in each other’s closets, and they cancel each other out.
Politicians and bureaucrats get all the blame for taking bribes, but what of the givers of bribes? In this crony capitalism, businesses invariably need political patrons in an elaborate <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepals-only-growth-industry-private-sector-corruption" target="_blank">national network of give-and-take</a>.
<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepals-only-growth-industry-private-sector-corruption" target="_blank">Politicians and businesses work hand-in-glove</a> so that conflict of interest in contracts, insider trading, cartelling, and non-performing assets of banks become the norm. Our survey after the 2017 local election showed that out of the 753 newly-elected local government chairs, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/elected-contractors" target="_blank">nearly 300 were contractors</a> involved in sand-mining, quarrying, or transportation syndicates.
Nepal’s tycoons have discovered that instead of donating to election war chests of politicians, it is a much surer return on investment to spend the money to <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/the-business-of-politics-in-nepal" target="_blank">become legislators and politicians themselves</a>.
In democracies, there are checks and balances to control corruption when it becomes endemic. The Nepal Police and Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) are supposed to do the detective work without political interference. The courts are required to be independent in dispensing justice and punishing crooks.
But the less said about the judiciary the better. A writ petition in the Supreme Court last week accused our sister magazine <a href="https://www.himalkhabar.com/" target="_blank">HimalKhabar</a> of contempt of court for two stories: one about how high courts have been overturning a majority of verdicts of district courts in cases of rape, and another about the Biratnagar High Court clearing a self-proclaimed holy man, Krishna Bahadur Giri, of rape despite police presenting physical evidence.
The doctrine of the separation of powers stipulates that it is when the other three pillars in a democracy are compromised that the role of the free press becomes even more vital. The world over, as soon as populist autocrats are elected to the executive, their first order of business is to co-opt the legislature and the judiciary. Then they buy off, intimidate, or neutralise the media with Strategic Lawsuits Against Public Participation (SLAPP).
Nepal’s officialdom seems to be taking midnight Zoom lessons from other despots on how to gag the media. Last month, popular talk show host Dil Bhushan Pathak was served an arrest warrant by the Kathmandu District Court for <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-CntsnTrtG8" target="_blank">a YouTube explainer</a> about the alleged involvement of the son of Foreign Minister Arzu Deuba Rana in a reported purchase of Kathmandu’s Hilton Hotel.
The Lalitpur District Court ruled that Pathak could not be arrested without fair trial, but this week the Kathmandu District Court filed another case against the journalist based on a complaint by the Cyber Bureau, and put him on a fugitive list.&nbsp;
Without going into the veracity of Pathak’s explainer, it is deeply problematic that the Electronic Transaction Act has been invoked – proof that politicians are getting the courts and investigating agencies to make an example of a high profile journalist.&nbsp;
The intention is to silence media investigations into the fake refugee scandal in which the main partner in the ruling coalition is implicated, and in which one of its former home ministers was jailed last year.
The Kathmandu High Court has been mysteriously active in targeting journalists these days. <a href="https://bizmandu.com/" target="_blank">Bizmandu</a> and <a href="https://nepalkhabar.com/" target="_blank">Nepalkhabar</a> were served a notice last month <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/no-freedom-after-expression-y4inku06" target="_blank">to withdraw a story they did</a> on the Chair of the <a href="https://www.sebon.gov.np/" target="_blank">Security and Exchange Board of Nepal (SEBON</a>) Santosh Narayan Shrestha allegedly demanding kickbacks from hydropower investors.&nbsp;
Incredibly, the court even asked the two portals not to report on the subject anymore – a ruling so absurd that the Patan High Court overturned it a week later.&nbsp;
The allegations against Shrestha were made in a public meeting of the <a href="https://www.ippan.org.np/members/3060/bungal-hydro-ltd" target="_blank">Independent Power Producers Association of Nepal (IPPAN)</a>, and MPs demanded a <a href="https://myrepublica.nagariknetwork.com/news/parliament-demands-probe-into-sebon-chairman-over-alleged-commission-demand-40-32.html" target="_blank">Parliament inquiry</a> into the regulator. <a href="https://www.himalkhabar.com/144523/santosh-narayan-shrestha" target="_blank">HimalKhabar</a> reported this week that while Shrestha was reportedly demanding commissions from private investors for IPOs, he cleared primary share sales in Bajhang’s 10.75MW <a href="https://www.ippan.org.np/members/3060/bungal-hydro-ltd" target="_blank">Bungal Hydro</a> in which his family members have investments, company records show.
And then just on Monday, bureaucrats hoodwinked MPs by deleting references in a bill requiring a two-year ‘cooling off’ period under which retiring civil servants could be barred from holding constitutional positions for two years.
The contest for who is more corrupt: bureauacrats, politicians, or the private sector is on.
Kunda Dixit

SLAPPing Democracy

In 2023, northern India suffered record-breaking heat. In 2024, it broke its own record. In 2025, the Indo-Gangetic plains and the Nepal Tarai suffered a prolonged pre-monsoon heat wave and humidity, forcing closure of schools and workplaces. This week, <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/europe-heat-wave-intensifies-as-fresh-warnings-issued/live-73108302">southern Europe is suffering the worst heat wave</a> since temperature records began. Football matches, tennis tournaments have been affected, and tourist sites have been closed off. Qatar has ordered a midday work curfew for Nepali and other migrant workers are the maximum temperature this week touched 45°C.&nbsp; Kathmandu Valley experienced its highest temperature in 25 years in May 2024 at 35.3°C. This year, the maximum temperature exceeded 30°C on many days — heat that till a decade ago would be considered unusual. Rains in early June also meant that towns in the mountains sweltered under high heat plus humidity.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250703090748_6975cfc2ad573f3a09ca301a299a9e92a420da7f1c5c90b8e4d061a2053dcd3e.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20250703090748_6975cfc2ad573f3a09ca301a299a9e92a420da7f1c5c90b8e4d061a2053dcd3e" data-rendition-name="original" width="1935" height="801" loading="lazy" alt="maximum average temperature in Kathmandu"> <figcaption>Source: DHM</figcaption> </figure>  Measuring just temperature does not give a true picture of how hot it is. When humidity is factored in, the heat index this summer has been much higher in northern India and Nepal. Also, the hotter the air temperature the higher the concentration of water vapour in it. “We feel it is getting hotter, and our statistics back that up,” says Shanti Kandel at the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology, which issued two heat wave warnings this year, compared to 11 last year. “We need more research to analyse how humidity is make this situation worse.” <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/india/india-faces-alarming-30-rise-in-moist-heat-stress-over-40-years-affecting-wide-swath-of-country-imd-study/articleshow/109376863.cms?from=mdr">A recent analysis</a> by the Indian Meteorological Department has found that heat stress in that country has increased by nearly 30% over the past 40 years. Similarly, India’s Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW) noted that cities like Delhi, Chandigarh, Jaipur, and Lucknow have experienced a 6-9% rise in relative humidity in the last decade.&nbsp; It also states that <a href="https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/majority-indian-districts-face-high-heatwave-risk-study-shows-2025-05-20/#:~:text=%22About%2057%20per%20cent%20of,usual%20number%20of%20heatwave%20days.">60% of Indian districts</a>, home to three-quarters of the country’s 1.3 billion people face a high to very high risk from extreme heat, with rising night-time temperatures and humidity. The heat index is also called ‘<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/north-indian-heat-wave-hits-nepal">wet-bulb temperature</a>’ and is a measure of how hot the human body feels when humidity levels are also high — usually much hotter than the recorded temperature. For example, a wet-bulb temperature of 35°C is considered the maximum limit of heat and humidity that humans can handle, beyond which the body cannot cool by perspiration, leading to death. One indicator of increasing humidity is a rise in average minimum temperature, and Nepal recorded the highest figure since 1981 last year, with a peak of 15.8°C. Higher minimum temperature denotes warmer nights, which in turn is an indication of heat stress caused by increasing humidity, which in turn is a result of global warming. Aside from higher average temperatures worldwide this year, what makes heat and humidity more unbearable is that cities are always hotter than their surroundings. This is due to the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/comment/preparing-for-kathmandu-s-heat-waves">urban heat island (UHI) effect</a> – for example the temperature inside Kathmandu’s Ring Road can be hotter by <a href="https://www.epa.gov/heatislands/what-are-heat-islands">up to 4°C during the daytime and by 1 to 3°C in the evening</a> compared to the outskirts. “Climate change is one reason for rising temperature, but there are other factors like increased heat in urban spaces due to concrete buildings and infrastructure, emissions from vehicles, industries, and home appliances,” explains urban planner Bhushan Tuladhar. He adds: “Much of this comes down to how we have developed our cities, not just our roads and buildings but also our water system, waste management, culture and customs as well as economy.” There is a feedback loop at work: as it gets hotter, more energy is used for fans, coolers, and air-conditioners which in turn add to the urban heat bubble. The way to reduce the UHI effect is to have more parks, tree-lined streets and water bodies to cool cities down.&nbsp; <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S2212095525002093">A recent study published in the journal Urban Climate</a> by Nepali researchers at the University of Massachusetts, Tribhuvan University, University of Groningen, etc showed that even within Kathmandu, urban forests cooled neighbourhoods by as much as 1.2°C while ponds reduced the temperature by up to 0.85°C compared to nearby houses.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250703090748_e4de75dbdfb5fcfdeb0935eda364dc16b5dca8857ba335ab0f4586ebdc5093a9.jpg" data-media-id="editor_8" data-image-id="20250703090748_e4de75dbdfb5fcfdeb0935eda364dc16b5dca8857ba335ab0f4586ebdc5093a9" data-rendition-name="original" width="2580" height="1038" loading="lazy" alt="urban heat island in Kathmandu"> <figcaption>Source: URBAN CLIMATE et al.</figcaption> </figure>  ‘Our results demonstrate that blue-green spaces provide significant cooling benefits across the Kathmandu Valley, with distinct patterns by type, size, design, and urban context,’ concluded the paper, whose lead author is Saurav Bhattarai at Jackson State University in the United States. The old towns in Kathmandu Valley with traditional brick and tile architecture, ponds and trees managed hot summers better. Compact houses around a courtyard gave people just the right amount of sunlight, and use of clay mortar and bricks insulated houses in winter while cooling them in summer. There were open spaces, fertile land along the floodplains for farming, and brick pavements that allowed for seepage. “Our cities were planned taking nature into account,” says Sangeeta Singh, a professor of urban planning at the Institute of Engineering. “Kathmandu Valley is now built up, but we can still reintegrate blue-blue spaces into town planning with vertical gardening, urban forestry, using local material and harvesting rainwater.”&nbsp; Kathmandu’s municipalities have by-laws controlling building design and structure, but strict enforcement of land use and zoning are missing. Extreme heat disproportionately affects the urban poor who may not have access to fans or air-conditioners, exacerbating poverty.&nbsp; Cities in the plains have it even worse. As heat and humidity rise simultaneously, it could <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/garmi-se-behal-chalo-nepal">reverse the current mass migration</a> of people from the mountains to the Tarai, where 53% of Nepal’s population lives. <a href="https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/92fbbbc6180238e18e7b239fad83e38a-0280032024/original/12-DHNT-Temperature-poverty-inequality-September-2024.pdf">A World Bank study</a> put the cost of a 1°C rise in temperature at 17.1% increase in poverty globally. Estimates put the total number of urban poor in developing countries exposed to the worst heat extremes at 26 million presently, this number is bound to grow to 215 million by mid-century, an over eight-fold increase. Meanwhile, 489,000 health-related deaths occur each year, 45% of them in Asia alone. “Heat has to be seen from a class perspective,” says Singh. “Those with money can afford gadgets and appliances to keep their homes and offices cool, but not day labourers or poor families living in cramped housing with poor ventilation.” Climate breakdown is going to widen the class divide in cities, as <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/unthinkable-in-the-current-climate">summers become unliveable</a>. Says Singh: “We need policy intervention to address this class injustice. Our building by-laws and new town development must urgently integrate climate and energy efficiency elements.”

In the heat of the moment

The monsoon this year arrived on time, and brought life-giving rain — irrigating paddy terraces, recharging groundwater, reviving springs, and increasing electricity generation.
But Nepal has to deal with either too much water or too little. On a clear April day before the monsoon, the hills of Sindhuli district were parched, and there were wildfires burning out of control. There had been no rain for the past six months.
And that has been the perennial crisis for Nepal’s farmers: that 85% of the rainfall occurs during just four months of the monsoon with little rain for the other eight months.&nbsp;
The water crisis is related to the powerful changes sweeping the mid-hill region of Nepal. With better roads, higher incomes and more exposure, many residents now aspire to have the kind of water supply seen in urban homes. They want hot or cold water at the turn of a tap, showers and flush tank toilets.&nbsp;
To meet this rising demand, many local and provincial governments are investing in large water supply projects often by lifting water from rivers hundreds of metres down the mountain. But these new systems may not be sustainable in the long run.
Many villages in Sindhuli are switching from local springs to piped systems, and even in rural homes, overhead tanks are becoming common.
But this new convenience comes with big challenges. Lifting water from rivers far below requires long pipes, electric pumps, and constant maintenance. These systems are costly, and the streams themselves often shrink to a trickle in the dry months. Big water-lifting schemes look impressive, but there is doubt if they can meet growing water demand.
A much more sustainable solution would be what some communities are doing: restoring old ponds or build new recharge systems. But those villages are exceptions, in most places traditional ponds and wallows are being filled up to be turned into sports fields, or make way for buildings.
Where there are new ponds, they are sometimes in the wrong places or without proper design. Roads and drains are not engineered properly and have increased landslides and erosion. Water management in hilly areas is not just about building things, it is about building in the right way, in the right place.
Traditional water systems were based on nature. They were not perfect, but they used the land wisely. Ponds used to hold rainwater and slowly refill springs which supported families, farms, and forests.&nbsp;
Not everything worked well in the past, but we can learn from traditional water management practices. Across Nepal, some rural municipalities have launched campaigns to store monsoon runoff — either in tanks, ponds or by recharging the aquifers.
But not all efforts have been successful. Some ponds are built without any hydrological study. Some are rushed to meet deadlines rather than real needs.&nbsp;
Now, the Muhan initiative hopes to revive springs to make households more resilient and help farmings. With the financial support of the Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research, research is being done to understand how springs work and how they are affected by changes in rainfall, land use, and development.&nbsp;
Instead of just building pipes and tanks, the project maps the entire springshed so we can understand the root cause of water shortage. In Sindhuli, the problem is not the amount of rain, but the loss of natural systems that store it and the social systems that manage water.&nbsp;
Nepal’s towns and villages now face a major challenge: how to manage water all year round as demand rises with people’s living standards. Depending only on river-lift systems is not a sustainable solution.&nbsp;
We need a mix of approaches that help store water from the rainy season to make it available for the rest of the year, whether by directly harvesting rainwater, restoring ponds, managing springsheds, or smart management of demand.
Rural Nepal is also seeing dramatic depopulation. Much of the outmigration can be stemmed if there is easier water supply for agriculture and household use. Across the mid hills, villages are emptying because springs are going dry. Government policy needs to catch up with the reality on the ground, and support solutions that work for people and nature. Every water supply plan should include recharge structures. Every road or building project should consider water flow and erosion. Local governments need more than budgets: they need training, tools, and data.
Ngamindra Dahal is with the Nepal Water Conservation Foundation, Kathmandu. Hemant Ojha collaborated in this piece and is associated with the Australian National University.

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