<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111413118/637230519c7e80680e0c255ejpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1360" height="680"/><figcaption>Photo credit: PROJECT SYNDICATE</figcaption></figure>Today’s energy crisis is potentially worse than similar previous ones – particularly the 1970s oil shocks.Consumers around the world are hit by high prices, businesses worried about energy supplies, political leaders and central bankers struggling with inflation, and countries confronting balance-of-payments pressures.In the 1970s, only oil was involved, whereas this crisis encompasses natural gas, coal, and food. In addition to stoking <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/10/consumer-price-index-may-2022.html">inflation</a>, today’s crisis is transforming a previously global market into one that is fragmented and more vulnerable to disruption, crimping economic growth. And, together with the geopolitical crisis arising from the war in Ukraine, it is further deepening the world’s great-power rivalries.This crisis did not begin with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but started last year when <a href="https://www.iea.org/news/surging-electricity-demand-is-putting-power-systems-under-strain-around-the-world">energy demand</a> surged as the world emerged from the Covid-19 pandemic. That is when China <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-28/china-s-coal-shortage-means-higher-prices-for-the-whole-world">ran short</a> of coal and prices shot up. The global market for liquefied natural gas (LNG) then tightened, with prices <a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/oil-and-gas/our-insights/petroleum-blog/reflecting-on-2021-global-lng-and-european-pipeline-flows">skyrocketing</a>, and <a href="https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts/">oil prices</a> rose as well.Normally, with rising energy prices, a country like Russia would have increased its natural-gas sales to its main customer, Europe, above the minimum contracted volumes.Instead, it stuck to its contracts, even though it could have produced considerably more. At the time, it appeared that Russia was trying to force prices up. But, instead, the Kremlin was preparing for war.Because Europe <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/why-russia-drives-european-gas-prices-2022-01-21/">depended</a> on Russia for 35-40% of its oil and natural gas, Putin assumed that the Europeans would protest the invasion, but ultimately stand aside. Fixated on his self-appointed mission of <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2022/06/10/europe/russia-putin-empire-restoration-endgame-intl-cmd/index.html">restoring</a> what he views as Russia’s historic empire, he did not anticipate how they would respond to an unprovoked war next door.Looking ahead, five factors could make today’s energy crisis even worse. First, Putin has opened a second front in the conflict by <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-31/russia-to-cut-gas-exports-to-shell-orsted-over-rubles-dispute">cutting back</a> on the contracted volumes of natural gas that Russia supplies to Europe. The goal is to prevent Europeans from <a href="https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2022/05/19/historic-day-as-eu-sets-mandatory-gas-storage-level-for-winter-supplies">storing enough supplies</a> for next winter, and to drive prices higher, creating economic hardship and political discord.In his <a href="http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68669">speech</a> in June at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, Putin made his reasoning clear: “Social and economic problems worsening in Europe” will “split their societies” and “inevitably lead to populism … and a change of the elites in the short term.”As it is, Germany is now anticipating the need for gas rationing, and Minister for Economic Affairs Robert Habeck, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/germany-says-energy-crisis-may-trigger-lehman-like-contagion-2022-6">warns</a> of a “Lehman-style contagion” (referring to the 2008 financial crisis) if Europe cannot manage today’s energy-induced economic disruptions.Second, a new or revived nuclear deal with Iran is <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/french-source-pessimistic-us-iran-can-quickly-resolve-nuclear-deal-differences-2022-05-12/">unlikely</a>. Thus, sanctions on the country will not be lifted – and that means Iranian oil will not be flowing into world markets anytime soon.Third, although Saudi Arabia may step up its oil production to help stabilise oil markets after US President Joe Biden’s visit, no gusher is likely to follow, because there does not appear to be a large amount of <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/03/oil-markets-opec-has-limited-spare-capacity-russia-is-less-relevant.html">extra oil</a> in Saudi Arabia (or in the United Arab Emirates) that can be produced on short notice.Meanwhile, many other oil-exporting countries cannot even return to their <a href="https://qz.com/2115735/opec-countries-are-producing-less-oil-than-they-said-they-would/">previous levels of production</a>, owing to a lack of investment and maintenance since the pandemic.Fourth, <a href="https://www.aa.com.tr/en/energy/oil/oil-up-despite-low-china-demand-over-covid-19-lockdowns/35208">China’s demand for oil</a> has been significantly reduced by its “zero-Covid” lockdowns, which have sharply curtailed economic activity. But if it lifts many restrictions, a big increase in oil consumption and demand will follow.Lastly, however tight the market for crude oil, there is even more tightness in the <a href="https://www.vortexa.com/insights/products/global-refining-industry-struggles-to-stem-growing-market-tightness/">refining sector</a> that produces the gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel that people actually use. This has developed into a complex, highly interconnected worldwide system. Russia was refining products that it was shipping to Europe, while Europe was sending gasoline that it did not need to the US East Coast, and so forth.In some places, the system is going all out, with US refineries already operating at about <a href="https://www.marketplace.org/2022/05/23/u-s-oil-refiners-margins-smash-records-but-few-plan-to-build-more-plants/">95% capacity</a>. But the system overall still cannot keep up with demand. Russian refineries are functioning <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russian-oil-refiners-signal-deeper-cuts-refinery-runs-amid-overstocking-2022-03-31/">only partly</a>, depriving Europe of oil products; and not enough European gasoline is reaching North America.Chinese refineries are operating at less than <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-19/massive-oil-refining-capacity-idle-in-china-even-as-prices-soar">70%</a> capacity. Some four million barrels per day of refining capacity have been <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/why-is-there-worldwide-oil-refining-crunch-2022-06-22/">shut down worldwide</a>, owing to the pandemic, new regulations, and challenging economics. Add in the risk of accidents, poor policy decisions, and a hurricane knocking out refineries on the US Gulf Coast, and the situation could get even worse.That said, a few countries could still boost production. Canada – the world’s <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/24/canada-to-increase-oil-gas-exports-amid-push-to-displace-russia">fourth-largest oil producer</a>, after the US, Saudi Arabia, and Russia – could provide extra barrels in collaboration with its major market, the US.And US shale oil production is back in gear and could add 800,000 to <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-04/shale-seen-adding-a-million-barrels-a-day-is-back-to-booming">one million barrels</a> per day of new production this year – far more additional production than the rest of the world combined.Other factors that could mitigate the crisis include price changes and how consumers respond. In May, US gasoline <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-25/us-drivers-begin-to-balk-at-record-gas-prices-stifling-demand">demand</a> was 7% less than in May 2019, before the pandemic. Some of that, however, may be the result of more people working from home.An economic slowdown could also dampen prices. S&amp;P’s latest global <a href="https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/bafed008810e4de0814abc612ca32706">purchasing managers’ index</a> points to a weakening of economic growth, with US manufacturing activity “slipping into a decline … to a degree only exceeded twice” – at the height of the pandemic lockdown and during the 2008 financial crisis.Likewise, European growth has <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/euro-zone-business-growth-slowed-sharply-june-pmi-2022-07-05/">slowed</a> sharply to a 16-month low. Such slowdowns could reduce demand and lower energy prices. But, of course, they also will strain the Western alliance.The next six months will be critical, testing whether Europe can maneuver its way through the coming winter. In what Habeck <a href="https://news.sky.com/story/bitter-but-necessary-germany-turns-to-coal-to-replace-russian-gas-12636775">called</a> a “bitter” but “necessary” decision, Europe will need to burn more coal.In the difficult months ahead, there will need to be more informed collaboration between government and industry that manages the energy flows on which modern economies depend.© <a href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/">Project Syndicate</a>Daniel Yergin, Vice Chairman of S&amp;P Global, is the author of <a href="https://www.penguin.co.uk/books/320756/the-new-map-by-yergin-daniel/9780141994635">The New Map: Energy, Climate, and the Clash of Nations</a> (Penguin, 2021) and <a href="https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/The-Prize/Daniel-Yergin/9781439110126">The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money, and Power</a>, for which he won the Pulitzer Prize.Read more: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/fueling-nepals-economic-crisis/">Fueling Nepal’s economic crisis</a>, Sonia Awale

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5 reasons the energy crisis could deepen

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111413114/63722ef39c7e80680e0c24edjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1280" height="852"/><figcaption>Photo: NEPALI TIMES ARCHIVE</figcaption></figure>Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba was forced to sack Janardan Sharma this week, but only after his finance minister became a political liability because of sinking neck-deep in scandals.Instead of trying to resolve Nepal’s growing economic crisis, Sharma inducted yes-men with no finance background into the ministry, and ousted the Rastra Bank governor for blocking a money-laundering scam. He then involved an unauthorised ‘expert’ at a late-night budget drafting meeting to change tax rates, and later alleged deleted CCTV footage implicating him.Much of the credit for exposing Janardan Sharma goes to Nepal’s mainstream media which investigated his wrongdoings, as well as exposing corporate houses including the Chaudhary Group, Shanker Group, Saurabh Group and Jagadamba that stood to benefit directly from Sharma’s tax rebates.Deuba coddled his finance minister till the end despite growing criticism from within his Nepali Congress, as well as pressure from Sharma’s Maoist Centre party. All this meant that the prime minister and his finance minister took their eyes off the ball as Nepal’s economy started going into free-fall.This week Sri Lanka declared it did not have cash to import any more fuel, and officially declared bankruptcy. Nepal’s officials have said the country is not in the same debt trap, but there are many indications that the crisis is deepening.The clearest yet was Nepal Oil Corporation (NOC) asking the government this week to implement 10 austerity measures to reduce petroleum consumption, including by reimposing the two-day weekend, odd-even traffic rule, quota at filling stations, discouraging vehicle use, car pooling, and a ban on import of petrol and diesel vehicles.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111413114/63722ef69c7e80680e0c24eejpeg.jpg" alt="" width="800" height="565"></figure>Illustration: RABINDRALast week, the government reduced the tax on petroleum imports to reduce petroleum prices, but the NOC warned of “dire consequences” because it was running out of money.“Reducing gas prices by reducing taxes was absolutely of no use in the long run. They could have instead used tax money to promote and invest in sustainable measures,” says climate negotiator Manjeet Dhakal.He adds: “By reducing the tax the government is essentially abusing democracy by claiming to reduce the burden to the people in the guise of improving its chances in elections.”It is because of such short-sightedness that Nepal’s economy was in trouble long before Covid and Ukraine. The banking sector had a liquidity crisis because it had over-extended loans to real estate speculators. Stagnant overseas remittance, falling exports and a jump in imports had led to a growing trade deficit, and depleted foreign exchange reserves.However, some experts still believe that Nepal’s macroeconomic picture is sound, a healthy monsoon so far could mean a good rice harvest, and the INR-NPR peg cushions Nepal from the worst impact of the global crisis.They also say the fuel crisis provides Nepal with the perfect opportunity to accelerate the shift away from fossil fuels in transport, industry and households. Nepal needs to wean itself off petroleum not just to reduce its per capita carbon footprint, but to cut consumption of fossil fuels which now make up 20% of the total import bill.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111413114/63722ef89c7e80680e0c24efjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1150" height="1488"></figure>In the last nine months, Nepal spent Rs218 billion importing petroleum products, which is 82% higher compared to the same period last year. This is nearly 20% of the country’s total imports, and is worth nearly double the income from all exports.Switching to electric public transport and battery vehicles to reduce the petroleum import bill by just 10% would save the county at least Rs21 billion a year.However, from July-December 2021, Bagmati Province alone saw the registration of 81,227 new vehicles, 75,573 of which were motorcycles and scooters. If they had been electric two-wheelers, fuel costs would have been reduced.“At this rate, we maybe fast approaching the fate of Sri Lanka and the only way ahead is maximising the use of domestically generated electricity primarily in the transport sector,” says Bhushan Tuladhar, board member of Sajha Yatayat which is starting electric buses in Kathmandu starting this week.“We have policies in place, but crucial details are missing such as how to incentivise electric buses, dedicated charging stations and coordinated management of public transport,” Tuladhar adds.Electric mass transit has long been identified as a cost-effective solution, and the government needs to facilitate loans for electric buses which are about five times more expensive than diesel ones, or subsidise them so that the private sector can invest in them.Industry experts are reworking Nepal’s Nationally Determined Contribution target submitted to the UNFCCC (Framework Convention on Climate Change) in 2021 with a particular focus on electric public transport.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111413114/63722efb9c7e80680e0c24f0jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="3214" height="2143"></figure>Photo: AMIT MACHAMASI/NEPALI TIMESThey have proposed an increase in sales of electric public transport to 60% by 2030, reduction in custom and excise duties for electric buses, grants and soft loans to procure them, and ensuring at least three provinces operate electric public transport by 2025.The other low-hanging fruit is a shift from LPG to electricity in households and restaurants, but transmission lines and distribution need to be upgraded so the grid can handle the load.In the Tarai, electric rickshaws are becoming popular, and municipal biodegradable garbage and crop residue can all be turned into compost to reduce imports of chemical fertiliser.All of this will also help Nepal meet its global climate targets set at Glasgow during the COP26 last year to achieve net-zero by 2040, and 45% forest cover by 2030.Nepal therefore needs to do its bit to reduce its petroleum imports to save both the economy and ecology. But that needs political will, which is sorely lacking during this election year.Says Bhushan Tuladhar: “If we don’t act even now, it will be too late. We need to work on energy, economy and environment simultaneously by involving both the government and the private sector.”Read more: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/sky-high-fuel-price-hits-nepals-tourism-airlines/">Sky high fuel price hits Nepal’s tourism</a>, airlines, Nepali Times

Sonia Awale

Fueling Nepal’s economic crisis

One aspect of colonial cartography of South Asia leaps out in this must-see exhibition – while the coastline of India, Ceylon, Burma are extraordinarily accurate in maps made more than 200 years ago, the Himalayan hinterland is wholly approximate and inexact. The accuracy improves as modern survey techniques are introduced by atlas-makers, but even then formidable terrain and forbidden lands thwart precision. Map aficionados will be fascinated by the 40 antique maps from The Rajbhandari Collection on display at the exhibition ‘Imaging South Asia: Nepal in the Making at Kathmandu Art Gallery’ at Baber Mahal Revisited from 13 February - 17 March.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260211090252_0cbeb88674a97c6292e2b43b2135df219257ca641cbd4723e9aabf5541c2b258.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20260211090252_0cbeb88674a97c6292e2b43b2135df219257ca641cbd4723e9aabf5541c2b258" data-rendition-name="original" width="4160" height="3485" loading="lazy" alt="Map Land NT"> </figure>  The first maps were made on clay tablets and cave paintings, but maps improved with Chinese maritime charts of Southeast Asia and beyond. Nautical maps created during the European Age of Exploration used geometry, latitude and longitude. Competition for colonial riches rested on the accuracy of these maps. The Portuguese had the lead in the 15th century, but were soon overtaken by the Spanish with Columbus voyaging to India but landing up in the Americas.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260211090252_1fb21d20cf29b408119f5279ce666e73dee089356e52277d753a27e3440364eb.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20260211090252_1fb21d20cf29b408119f5279ce666e73dee089356e52277d753a27e3440364eb" data-rendition-name="original" width="4030" height="3407" loading="lazy" alt="Map Land NT"> </figure>  European mapping of the coastline of peninsular India &nbsp;began after Vasco de Gama sailed around the Horn of Africa to arrive at what is now Kerala in 1498. The British and French struggled for control of India, and the Carnatic Wars of the 19th century were extensions of their rivalry in Europe.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260211090252_0fb0969dc3e07c5a77123b4aa5eb0f11d2ffea73c108077f7e4d1892d6bd4bb6.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20260211090252_0fb0969dc3e07c5a77123b4aa5eb0f11d2ffea73c108077f7e4d1892d6bd4bb6" data-rendition-name="original" width="2842" height="4160" loading="lazy" alt="Map Land NT"> </figure>  While most of the maps at this exhibition were commissioned by the East India Company and the Survey of India, there are quite a few made by Parisian cartographers and feature Pondicherry and the Danish trading outpost at Tranquebar. Followed chronologically, the maps show improvements in cartographic techniques. The earliest French map L’Inde of J D Barbié du Bocage from 1760 is a copper engraving with hand painted colours demarcating boundaries. ‘Napaul’, ‘Gorka’ and ‘Catmando’ are depicted. The rivers of India are precisely drawn, as is the Brahmaputra (Yarou Tsanpou) even though locations across the rest of Tibet are rough estimates.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260211090252_486dc1b12f391550516be164f27170d4702a69b5125c1b8c4b10f76fdae4c0b1.jpg" data-media-id="editor_3" data-image-id="20260211090252_486dc1b12f391550516be164f27170d4702a69b5125c1b8c4b10f76fdae4c0b1" data-rendition-name="original" width="1675" height="604" loading="lazy" alt="Map Land NT"> </figure>  The 1781 map Carte des Indes en deçà et au-delà du Gange of Rigobert Bonne has slightly more detail about Nepal with even ‘Pattan’ and ‘Bagmally’ river marked. William Darton’s 1802 map has ‘Nogarcot’ and ‘Mocaumpour’ wrongly placed to the east of the valley of ‘Napaul’. Samuel Arrowsmith’s 1828 map ‘India and the Birman Empire’ has Nepal’s rough boundaries demarcated for the first time within a hand-coloured green border, with the mountain ‘Dholagiri’ and ‘Dhunchi’ appearing for the first time. The 1835 map by Boston-based American cartographer Thomas Bradford has a more precise ‘Burrampooter’ river with ‘Sgigatoe’, ‘Lassa’ and ‘Bootan’ marked. In Nepal, ‘Batgan’, ‘Macwampour’ and ‘Lelit Pattan’ appear near ‘Catmandu’.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260211090252_5509c8e043a74b3e34e399c0684ca8eef7fc79953ee0dd18aedc738e8189d552.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20260211090252_5509c8e043a74b3e34e399c0684ca8eef7fc79953ee0dd18aedc738e8189d552" data-rendition-name="original" width="4094" height="3646" loading="lazy" alt="Map Land NT"> </figure>  One striking landmark appears consistently through a century of map-making from 1760 onwards, and that is the sacred Yamdrok Tso near Lhasa. It is precisely located, although it is drawn as a circular lake called ‘Jamdro or Palto Lake’ till J Bartholomew’s lithographic map in 1893 Constable’s Hand Atlas of India. Bartholomew’s map is also where ‘Mt Everest’ appears for the first time with its altitude ’29,002ft’ after Peak XV was calculated to be the highest mountain in the world by the Survey of India. Meanwhile, ‘Kinchinjunga’ appears in some of the earlier maps from the mid-1800s, north of ‘Dorjeloo’. The maps did not only have locations of towns, rivers and mountains but also other interesting facts about places. History buffs will find much to pore over in these maps.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260211090252_8280c979b175946a2ac29e22b7a2b2427f7f36f22093c3456524f1f529311498.jpg" data-media-id="editor_5" data-image-id="20260211090252_8280c979b175946a2ac29e22b7a2b2427f7f36f22093c3456524f1f529311498" data-rendition-name="original" width="4160" height="2762" loading="lazy" alt="Map Land NT"> </figure>  Many have sites of major British battles while conquering India. The ‘British India’ map by J Rapkin has dates and times of the ‘Principle Massacres’ during the Indian Mutiny of 1857. The map also shows India’s growing railway network with completed lines and those ‘in progress’. Narrow gauge lines can be seen in successive maps snaking up to the Nepal border to haul sal logs for sleepers for India’s expanding railway network. Many maps were drawn by British military intelligence. One even has the Kuti route of the Nepal Army while invading Tibet in 1791, and the Chinese Army’s advance in hot pursuit through Kerung to Nuwakot.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260211090252_a41ff6a7453f95d1e83c12ed3f831911d65ebd4d2389e0e3b774252dfa037132.jpg" data-media-id="editor_6" data-image-id="20260211090252_a41ff6a7453f95d1e83c12ed3f831911d65ebd4d2389e0e3b774252dfa037132" data-rendition-name="original" width="1173" height="679" loading="lazy" alt="Map Land NT"> </figure>  Pre-1857 maps show the western Tarai as a part of British India, but in later ones the Naya Muluk districts of Banke, Bardia, Kailali and Kanchanpur have reverted back to Nepal. The maps clearly mark Nepal as an independent nation, and represent it differently from Indian princely states. The Atlas of India of 1846 shows the ‘Dominion of the King of Nepal’.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260211090252_52132146d9ee8b922560b98e90d866149715d7f53ced408b5f3af8f3b142a07b.jpg" data-media-id="editor_7" data-image-id="20260211090252_52132146d9ee8b922560b98e90d866149715d7f53ced408b5f3af8f3b142a07b" data-rendition-name="original" width="4149" height="3682" loading="lazy" alt="Map Land NT"> </figure>  Visitors will be curious about Nepal's claim to Limpiyadhura and Lipu Lek. A map by Mason &amp; Payne from 1846 clearly shows the ‘Kallee River’ as being the border between Nepal and British India, with Kalapni within Nepal. The Lipu Gad tributary (which India claims is the border) is not marked. Some other maps, however, seem to show the border not following the Kali river to Limpiyadhura but the tributary up to Lipu Lek.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2026021112024_9a1b6055a9fbecca7b64c3882c205efb336aac03e64ecf43a2044cb079cd699f.jpg" data-media-id="editor_8" data-image-id="2026021112024_9a1b6055a9fbecca7b64c3882c205efb336aac03e64ecf43a2044cb079cd699f" data-rendition-name="original" width="875" height="1215" loading="lazy" alt="Map Land NT"> </figure>  Imaging South Asia: Nepal in the Making&nbsp; Kathmandu Art Gallery, Baber Mahal Revisited&nbsp; 13 February – 17 March For guided walk-throughs and curatorial tours: +977 1-5318048 Panel discussions: -Cartographic Practices from the &nbsp;Gorkha Polity to the Present with Buddhi Narayan Shrestha and Kanak Mani Dixit&nbsp; Friday, 13 February, 4pm -Mapping Beyond Borders with Akhilesh Upadhyay and Amish Raj Mulmi Wednesday, 25 February, 4pm&nbsp;

Map land

The recent Nepali Times Substack post titled ‘Unresident Nepalis’ made me realise I also belong to the category of Nepalis who are technically Non-resident Nepali (NRN), but want to ‘permanently reside inside Nepal’.&nbsp;
Although this was meant as a joke, it is ironic that many of those who go abroad long to come back home, and those who have not emigrated cannot think of a good enough reason to stay back in Nepal.&nbsp;
As soon as the NRN Citizenship was officially introduced in late 2023, I had tried to apply for one but was shut down before even submitting my documents as the district administration office firmly told my then lawyer that I needed to prove “तिन पुस्ता” proof of three generations of Nepalis from my father’s side.&nbsp;
My late father was from Japan and relinquished his citizenship to become a Naturalised Nepali citizen in 2006. Three years ago, I dismissed the rejection with the thought that I will try again later when government officials would gain more experience with such applications.&nbsp;
Now, with an ailing mother and an energetic toddler, I felt the need to act soon and reached out to a law firm that specialises in NRN citizenship applications. To my surprise, they were positive after reviewing my documents, although they did warn me that we may need to overcome some obstacles.&nbsp;
In 2023, I had applied in the district office where my father had received his naturalised citizenship, but now the suggestion was to try from the district where my mother had received her Nepali ancestral origin “बंसागज” citizenship.&nbsp;
The lawyers pointed to the NRN citizenship mandate which clearly states that it can be acquired via a Nepali origin father, mother, grandfather or grandmother. The firm helped arrange the necessary documents required and the first step was to get a “सिफारिस” &nbsp;recommendation letter from my mother’s ward office.&nbsp;
This was the first hurdle as the ward office was unsure if they could issue such a letter, so they checked in with their head office, and luckily we received the go ahead. After persistent follow up from the law associates, they were able to provide us with a recommendation letter and we filled out the application forms.&nbsp;
The law firm wisely suggested that I take the paperwork myself to my mother’s district office while they stayed in the background in case I needed help explaining my situation.&nbsp;
With a big smile and cheerful tone, I dutifully followed the process and to my surprise, I found most of the officials ready to help without creating unnecessary hurdles. The application has to be signed off by the Chief District Officer (CDO) or Assistant CDO and just when I thought wow, I am going to breeze through this, one officer noticed that my father’s naturalised citizenship was from a different district and told me that I should apply for my NRN from there.&nbsp;
I explained that my father has already passed away and as he was not originally a Nepali, therefore it is not possible for me to get my NRN from his documents, as the requirement is ancestral “बंसागज” citizenship. The officer then went to check with their seniors and later told me that I would need police verification as an extra precaution.&nbsp;
Off I went to the police headquarters where they issued a sealed letter to be given to the police station that was in the same vicinity as my mother’s ward office. At the station I was told to get four people who are not my relatives to testify our documents are true.&nbsp;
This process happened to be more stressful than dealing with the government offices. At first, it turned out that most of my mother’s old neighbours had already passed away or had citizenship papers from another area. Others confirmed their availability, but later had conflicting schedules. Luckily, one very helpful old neighbour was able to arrange for enough people to verify the documents.&nbsp;
Encouraged that the end of the tunnel was in sight, I went back to the district office with all the requested documents, and after some initial pushback, I was finally referred to meet the official who signs off the documents before it goes to the CDO.&nbsp;
As luck would have it, the officials were in a meeting that lasted more than two hours, and I had to give my mother her insulin shot and noodles from the cafeteria in the waiting area.&nbsp;
When we were finally able to meet the officer, he didn’t even look at my papers properly and started questioning my lawyers whether they had even read the law, how could I apply for Nepali citizenship when I already had a Japanese passport, etc. He somehow assumed that I was looking to get a normal Nepali citizenship from my mother’s side, and we informed him that I was only looking to get an NRN citizenship, after which his tone became more apologetic and said that he would need to look into the law more closely.&nbsp;
It had already been three full days of working through each step of the process, and I had no problem waiting another day for the conclusion.&nbsp;
Perhaps because this NRN citizenship is a fairly new law and perhaps a lot of NRNs apply from the Nepal’s embassies in their country of domicile, throughout my experience, officials kept on telling me that a case such as mine has not been processed before.&nbsp;
My case being that I have never had a Nepali citizenship, my father having a naturalised Nepali citizenship and my mother being the only 100% Nepali in the family. I kept on saying that just because it has never been done before does not mean that it cannot be done, and sure enough, the next day the officer signed off on my documents, even kindly saying that they should have highly respected my application upon learning about my late father and his contributions to Nepal.&nbsp;
Although the intricacies of the NRN citizenship law have not been fully hacked out such as the transfer of land ownership, it is definitely a positive step in securing the rights and aspirations of fellow NRNs as many would agree that no matter where we go, “यो मन त मेरो नेपाली हो!”&nbsp;
Sonia Miyahara, Managing Director of Hotel Everest View, Trans Himalayan Tours &amp; Trekking Pvt Ltd &amp; Himalaya Kanko Kaihatsu Co. Ltd.

How I got my NRN Citizenship in Nepal

Besides being an election year in Nepal, 2026 is also the year of anniversaries. It is exactly 30 years since the Maoists launched their armed struggle on <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/13-february">13 February 1996</a>, and it was on 27 April 2006 that the ceasefire came into effect after a month of massive pro-democracy protests.
Alas, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/not-ever-again">three decades on</a>, the decade-long conflict that claimed 17,000 lives has been <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/ghosts-of-war">air brushed from our history</a>. For the survivors, and the families of those disappeared and killed, memories of loss and suffering are fading. The party that fought the war in Mao’s name has dropped it.
It is important on this day to remember not to forget that <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=3203">violent decade</a> -- so that it does not happen again, and so the youth movement that has led to this election will also not be in vain.
The 8 September 2025 rally, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-s-8-september-massacre">the massacre that followed</a>, and the nationwide mayhem and carnage the next day were largely a result of public anger boiling over. Nepalis had been let down repeatedly by rulers promising revolution in the name of the ‘people’: from the 1990 People’s Movement I, to the Maoist ‘People’s War’, and the 2006 People’s Movement II.
There are some positive residual effects of the insurgency. One-third of the Maoist militia was <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/Nation-sibling-war-juna-rai,731">composed of women</a>, this empowered not just the female guerrillas themselves, but indirectly made a whole generation of young women aware of their rights.&nbsp;
The peace process itself resulted in the Maoists entering the democratic mainstream, and the induction of many of the guerrillas into the national army – a rare occurrence after a conflict.
The ceasefire was followed by an interim government, and the first elected <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/the-letter-and-spirit">Constituent Assembly</a> abolished the monarchy in 2008. Deadlock over the model of federalism meant a second election had to be held in 2013, and the new Constitution <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/by-the-way/new-constitution-should-adopt-inclusive-democracy-with-federalism-republicanism-secularism,538">finally promulgated in 2015</a>.&nbsp;
That statute was supposed to devolve political decision-making away from Kathmandu to autonomous provinces, improve inclusive representation of women and hitherto excluded castes and ethnicities at all three levels of government, ensure accountability and good governance to generate jobs and lift living standards.
There were seven governments in ten years after 2015, and tottering coalitions one after another failed to fulfil any of those provisions in the Constitution. There were subliminal gains in representation of women thanks to affirmative action, but as this election shows, women candidates are still used as proxies by patriarchal parties.&nbsp;
Since the two warring sides of the Maoist war both became the state, sharing power in dozens of coalition cabinets since 2006, they colluded to bury the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-s-unpunished-war-crimes">transitional justice process</a>.
The former supreme commander of the Maoists Pushpa Kamal Dahal (Prachanda) has become prime minister three times in the last 20 years. He is contesting this election from Rukum East, where he marked the 30th anniversary of the start of armed struggle on Friday.
The word ‘Maoist’ has been erased from the Nepali Communist Party which Dahal formed with more than a dozen other smaller leftist outfits. His main rival, Janardan Sharma, quit the Maoists and is standing for elections in Rukum West.
Both former comrades are competing for the hearts and minds of people of this former base area from where the Maoists went on warpath on 13 February 1996 by attacking a police station in Athbiskot, and simultaneously on targets in <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=7812">Holeri of Rolpa</a>, Sindhuli and Gorkha.
The former ideologue of the Maoist party, <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/20-years-wasted-in-war,2850">Baburam Bhattarai</a>, was the architect of the revolution while Dahal was the <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=6369#.Y-XIii8w1KM">executor</a>. Bhattarai submitted a list of 40 demands to the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/deubas-denouement">Sher Bahadur Deuba</a> (during his first tenure as prime minister in 1995) but did not wait for a reply before launching the armed struggle.
The Maoists felt that the constitutional monarchy after 1990 was too feudal, and a patronage-driven parliamentary system too slow to bring about change. Besides, the democratic parties were accused of using state security to prevent Maoist candidates from winning elections.
The Maoists followed Mao’s Red Book to the letter, attacking police stations, looting weapons and targeting local elected governments, eliminating ‘class enemies' with summary executions.&nbsp;
They destroyed telecommunication towers, highways, bridges and airfields in remote areas. Threats forced health posts, schools, post offices to be withdrawn from areas where people needed them the most. The country’s development was pushed back decades.
Nepal in the early 1990s was ripe for revolution. There was inequality, social injustice, exclusion, and the political parties in Kathmandu were too busy squabbling to do their job. The Maoists wanted an end to the monarchy, but in 2001 the monarchy imploded with the royal massacre.
ABSOLUTE POWER
King Gyanendra succeeded his <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=8338">murdered brother</a> to the throne, and took the country back to absolute rule with a military-backed coup in 2005. Within a year, street protests forced him to step aside. And by 2008, it was too late to save the monarchy.
We can look back as far as we want to the roots of the Maoist conflict. It can be blamed on elected leaders post-1990 who abandoned the people once in power, the 30 years of partyless Panchayat system that stifled dissent and let social pressures build up, or even 100 years of Rana rule.&nbsp;
It was the prolonged indifference on the part of successive rulers in Kathmandu that fed public discontent. These accumulated grievances were also the reason for the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-s-gen-z-protest-turns-deadly">September 2025 events</a>.&nbsp;
During China’s Cultural Revolution, Mao Zedong said: ‘The old has to be uprooted to be replaced with the new’, and that could almost be the anthem of the GenZ movement and this election.
The objective conditions that drove the Maoist insurgency 30 years ago are still evident today. And much will depend on the government(s) that will be formed after March.&nbsp;

Remembering not to forget

As Nepal mourned its dead in the September violence and public buildings smouldered, former Chief Justice Sushila Karki was installed as prime minister to pull the country back from the brink.
She gave herself six months to conduct elections, and has gone about achieving that goal with a single-minded sense of purpose. Supporters praise her poise and decisiveness, while others fault her for not pursuing justice for the death and destruction, and postponing the release of the inquiry commission yet again.&nbsp;
But that also highlights her steadfastness to hold free, fair and peaceful elections on 5 March, and not allow it be derailed by distractions. It has not been easy for the 73-year-old — she has had to balance radical calls for scrapping the Constitution while appeasing entrenched leaders of established parties.&nbsp;
Karki has displayed patience, determination, foresight, and, above all, a deep love for country. It has been a lonely struggle, no doubt.
The very youth who voted for her on Discord demanded her resignation, &nbsp;she had to cajole discredited leaders to take part in polls, and she was not dismayed when her chosen ministers abandoned the government to contest polls. And this is not to mention geopolitical demands that must be happening behind the scenes.
This being Nepal, there is endless speculation about who is ‘pulling the strings’. Yet her record both as chief justice and interim prime minister offer ample evidence of integrity and principled leadership.
Regardless of geopolitical interpretations of her intentions, Karki is a Nepali leader through and through who has lifted herself from the highest judicial office to the highest executive position, adhering to both mandates.
Organising national elections within five months was a formidable task, which many doubted — and are still doubting — can be accomplished. Karki has worked closely with the Election Commission, security forces, and mainstream political parties to ensure participation.&nbsp;
In doing so, she has set an example not only for Nepal but for South Asia. Bangladesh, which went through its own GenZ protest in 2024 and held elections on Thursday offers a study in contrast. The Awami League and its exiled prime minister who was deposed have been banned from front contesting, there is growing influence of the Jamaat-e-Islami-led alliance.
Her first address to the National Assembly on 2 February was characteristically candid. She laid out the facts sequentially and emphasised Nepal’s most urgent priority: holding elections on schedule and transferring authority to elected representatives. Timely election was the only constitutional path forward, she said.
She acknowledged that GenZ activists had pressured her to appoint certain individuals to her Cabinet. She had to personally persuade Kulman Ghising, Mahabir Pun, and Jagdish Kharel to join her Cabinet. Others she was advised to induct turned out to have controversial pasts, and she was forced to rescind the nominations. She admitted Pun resigned as education minister because he could not get legislative proposals passed.
Educated, professionally accomplished, known for her frugal lifestyle, Karki has distanced herself from the culture of excess often associated with power, and has turned down multiple invitations for foreign junkets.
Her meeting with editors at Baluwatar in December was a breath of fresh air for Nepal’s jaded journalists used to excessive displays of power and pomp. Her frankness about threats from the GenZ and pressures from disgraced party leaders drew gasps.
In the last five months, Karki has attempted to restore a sense of governance anchored in constitutional duty rather than partisan ambition. But Nepal’s problems have been decades in the making, and it would be unrealistic to expect an interim government to solve all of them at once.
Nepal now stands at a crucial juncture. Leadership alone cannot safeguard democracy, elections alone do not guarantee legitimacy. That must come from delivery, performance and accountability. Citizens casting informed votes on 5 March will determine whether Karki’s handover to leaders capable of placing national interest above party and personal agendas.
In a region where democratic transitions often falter, Nepal has another chance to demonstrate that home-grown movements, constitutional discipline, and principled leadership can coexist.&nbsp;
Whether this moment becomes a turning point depends not only on one leader, but on the collective resolve of the nation and polity.
Watch a timelapse video of how Anup Tamu drew this portrait of Sushila Karki, <a href="https://youtube.com/shorts/tchdBwBZDJE?si=PD9Sd3__t-1-lILh">here</a>.&nbsp;

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How I got my NRN Citizenship in Nepal

Remembering not to forget

Mission (nearly) accomplished