<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109101116/636b70349c7e80680e060066jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2250" height="1267"/><figcaption>Photo: KUNDA DIXIT</figcaption></figure>Many conversations these days about <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-in-the-2020s/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the coming 2020s decade</a> for Nepal, somehow always turns to a debate about our past.Usually it is the fatalists and those who have profited by sending <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/why-nepalis-are-flocking-to-okinawa/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nepali workers</a> and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/migration-certificate/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">students abroad</a> who use the lost opportunities about the past to make a case to justify their business. They make it a point to run down Nepal and its vast potential to move ahead in order to justify their argument that the best option is to leave.Few still romanticise the past because that is where they had their space and comfort. Historical wrongs have taken place here, as they have all over the world. There are do-able ways to correct these injustices to ensure that we can coexist peacefully into the future. But for many, village life was that past and life in the city here and around the world is the future.Attempts to get the discussion back to the future and the potential that Nepal has for growth and prosperity, often drift back into needless comparisons with other countries. Nepal can, should and needs to learn from other countries, but it is a bit like comparing apples and oranges.The USA was partly built by slaves and the British enriched themselves by exploiting colonies. We do not have oil like the Gulf. We do not have a relatively homogenous society like Japan. What are we comparing, then when we compare Tokha to Tokyo, or Dhumbarahi to Dubai?It is not helpful to take one narrow example and to extrapolate to generalise it as the universal development principle. Many study tours that Nepalis have taken are quite futile because they actually end up in raising a greater sense of helplessness.The Nepali resolution for <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/how-will-nepal-develop-in-the-next-decade/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the 2020 decade</a> has to be to built more on what we can be and not so much on the way we were. Lessons are useful, but what good is it to organise a donors’ meeting when we are actually seeking investments?How useful are lessons on Leninism from the Soviet era? What is the use of planning for <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/from-a-fossil-past-to-an-electric-future/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a fossil economy</a> when the path ahead is <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepals-electric-transport-future-is-here/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">clean and renewable energy</a>? The world must resolve not to repeat the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/make-or-break-decade-for-climate-action/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">failure of the Madrid Climate Summit</a>. The coming decade has to be about innovation and creativity that will benefit many more people who have been left behind.A new decade has begun with many parts of Australia burning, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/us-iran-war-could-wreck-nepal-economy/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the Persian Gulf</a> is in a hair trigger, Europe and the UK have started divorce proceedings, and large cities in the most populated areas of the world like Jakarta and Venice are going underwater.Yet, many Nepali migrants have chosen these very countries as where the grass is greener. Yes Nepal is plagued with political uncertainty, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/a-klepto-republic/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">corruption</a>, nepotism, and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/air-pollution-is-more-dangerous-than-smoking/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">bad air quality</a>. For Nepalis who migrated to New South Wales, it must feel like from the frying pan into the fire. In the USA many Nepali Americans face the possibility of being drafted into an escalating war.If we stopped focusing on the past, making irrelevant comparisons, we could actually begin to look at Nepal’s future more objectively. For example, Nepal is an upstream country. This word is often not used to describe Nepal and what its comparative advantage could be. Being an upper riparian has numerous advantages and opens up all kinds of possibilities.A country of 30 million is not small. And Nepal is not poor, just poorly governed. So let us stop describing ourselves as “a small and poor country”. <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/need-to-prepare-for-ageing-society,3624" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Having a young population</a> is not a liability but a historic opportunity that is the envy of rapidly-ageing countries like <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/nepalis-from-chitwan-to-chidoya,4110" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Japan</a>.One thing we will need while moving ahead is to restore our faith in ourselves.  Recently, climbing the steps of Swayambhu a fellow-walker remarked, “If people went to work with the same faith as they do when they go to temples, Nepal would surely develop.”Anil Chitrakar is President of <a href="http://www.siddharthinc.com/">Siddharthinc.</a>

Anil Chitrakar

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Back to the future in Nepal

<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/8-9.jpg" data-elementor-open-lightbox="no"></a><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108151124/636a66e89c7e80680e0599afjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1163"/>Ten years ago, at the beginning of the last decade, Nepalis looked forward with optimism to a country with greater connectivity — at least a railway or two, smart cities, more energy sources and <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/A-great-leap-forward,198" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a great leap forward</a> in infrastructure. The war had ended, a new constitution was being drafted and there was optimism about the future in 2010.Fast forward 10 years and many of those projects have not materialised, while even the ones nearing completion, like <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/page/melamchi-coming-to-kathmandu" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Melamchi</a>, Pokhara Airport, or the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/our-land-is-us-we-are-our-land/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kathmandu-Tarai Expressway</a>, are delayed. The 2015 earthquake and Blockade, as well as endemic corruption, were blamed. But it was mainly failure of political leadership.Read Also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/trilateral-trains/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Trilateral Trains,</a> EditorialYet, many of these projects and others planned for the coming decade are more ambitious than ever. The government hopes to start on a new international airport in <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/economy-ecology-of-nijgad-airport/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nijgad</a>, upgrade Kathmandu airport, build two highway tunnels to Rasuwagadi, start a feasibility study on the Kerung-Kathmandu railway, expedite <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/planned-new-east-west-railroad-and-expressway-threaten-the-Chitwan-National-Park,1079" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the East-West Railway</a>, and add at least <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/decentralising-hydropower/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">10,000MW of hydropower</a> to the grid in the next decade.Nepalis have got used to delays and disappointment, and there is a ‘we will believe it when we see it’ attitude about the megaprojects in the pipeline. A government that cannot even upgrade the Nagarkot road or finish the 5km stretch from Chabahil to Gokarna, it is felt, has no right promising a $6billion new airport by clearing native forest.Read Also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/an-energy-windfall-for-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">An energy windfall for Nepal</a>, Kushal GurungEarlier this year, Finance Minister Yubaraj Khatiwada promised that the government would complete the feasibility study of the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/which-way-will-the-tibet-nepal-railway-go/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kerung-Kathmandu railway</a> and begin construction by 2022. This came without a definite budget or financial modality, still the Nepali engineer on the project, Paribesh Parajuli says it will happen within the coming decade.“The detailed project report and feasibility study for the Kerung-Kathmandu Railway will take more than two years but we are hopeful that it will be done within the given timeframe,” Parajuli told Nepali Times. “If everything goes as planned, the railway should be completed within nine years of the start of construction.”Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=38023&amp;preview_nonce=024823c344&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Towards 2030</a><a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=38038&amp;preview_nonce=e8166bf726&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Another decade to get it right,</a> EditorialAnother faraway project is the 945km East-West Railway. To span 24 Tarai districts from Mechi to Mahakali, it is expected to be completed by the middle of the coming decade. In fact, 30km of the track-bed from Bardibas to Nijgad is scheduled to be finished next year. This line will connect with the 69km Janakpur-Jayanagar-Kurtha line that will start operating in March 2020. Also being surveyed is the <a href="nepalitimes.com/nepali-times-polls/do-you-think-kathmandu-raxaul-rail-will-ever-be-built/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Raxaul-Kathmandu Railway</a>.Out of the 22 <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/communist-capital/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">national pride projects</a>, 17 are scheduled for completion in the next 5 years, according to the National Planning Commission's Approach Paper. Sushil Bhatta of the NPC says: “The government is focusing on giving priority to certain projects, making sure that resources are effectively and efficiently utilised in order to meet the targets that have been outlined.”Read Also:<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=38061&amp;preview_nonce=012fb23553&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nepal in the 2020s,</a> Sewa Bhattarai<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=38073&amp;preview_nonce=5c5e53a600&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">How will Nepal develop in the next decade,</a> Sonia AwaleIn the next five-year periodic plan, the government is prioritising completion of projects that have already begun, allocating resources on the basis of the progress achieved and the significance of the projects to the economy.Bhatta says: “We want to give priority to result-oriented national pride projects and those that help enhance economic growth.”The government is determined to complete Nijgad International Airport in the coming decade despite strong protests from environmental activists and criticism that it is too grandiose. Bhairawa and <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/Pokhara-waits-for-take-off,4136" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Pokhara</a> airports will be operational in 2020 and 2021, but whether they will act as alternative airports and reduce congestion in Kathmandu is debatable.Read Also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/does-nepal-need-a-4th-international-airport/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Does Nepal need a 4th international airport?,</a> Om Astha RaiDuring this year’s <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/invest-in-investment/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nepal Investment Summit</a> there were numerous proposals for smart cities in Hetauda — integrated urban development programs that were built on digital frameworks, improved technology, energy-efficient apartments, electric vehicle charging stations and bus rapid transit.Between 2020-2030 there will also be explosive growth in the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-telecom-or-go/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">telecommunication sector</a> with the introduction of 4G and 5G networks. Anand Khanal at the Nepal Telecommunications Authourity says, “In the next decade, we will see blanket coverage of mobile broadband in the country. The infrastructure will be established so that 100% of the public will have access to the internet and broadband service. “Nepal hopes to become a <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/guest-editorial/muddy-road-middle-income,928" target="_blank" rel="noopener">middle-income country by 2030</a>, and the country needs to invest more than $1billion annually on infrastructure development to reach this goal.Bhatta says: “To achieve our 5-year goals and even 25-year goals, we need to streamline our projects, strategically invest in those projects and push for a paradigm shift in the way Nepal manages development.”Read Also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/calendar-of-economic-change/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Calendar of economic change</a>, Om Astha Rai

Nepal in 2030

Nepali Congress (NC) President Gagan Thapa's candidacy in Sarlahi-4 has thrust this Madhes constituency into rare national focus. If Thapa wins and the NC emerges as the largest party, Sarlahi-4 will send Nepal's next prime minister to Parliament. But if he does not, Nepal’s grand old party will face the next years in the opposition to fight another day. There is a troubling paradox in Sarlahi-4 where the district bordering the Indian state of Bihar has been a battleground for national politicians with fierce electoral competition, all while remaining one of the region's most underserved and underdeveloped constituencies.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485.png" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485" data-rendition-name="original" width="1802" height="1276" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: MADHES PAHARA MEDIA</figcaption> </figure>  Ever since Mahant Thakur split from NC in 2008 to form the Tarai Madhes Loktantrik Party, the district has seen rotating political alliances and fragmented votes. Yet, despite 18 years of candidates promising change irrigation schemes remain incomplete, market access for farmers has not improved, unemployment is high.&nbsp; On election day, voters here marked their ballots with fingers stained by dye from the Holi festival the day before. The road leading to Barathawa Bazar was deserted for the most part, except for some youth riding in motorcycles. This is where the high-profile contest between Gagan Thapa and RSP nominee Amresh Singh is being staged. Among the other aspirants is 27-year-old UML candidate Amnish Yadav, the son of former MP Shiv Pujan Yadav. The Yadavs are a political family with considerable caste influence in the constituency. In 2022 Yadav’s daughter Madhumala Yadav received over 14,000 votes here, ranking third overall. Yadav was voted MP from the Maoist party, but defected to the UML this time. His other son is the chair of Sarlahi’s Ramnagar Rural Municipality. Sarhali-4 has 121,012 voters, and the Yadav is banking on the 27,000-strong Yadav vote bank. Sarlahi-4 voter Avishek Sah told us he wanted his vote to go to a young nominee and not someone who has been MP thrice already, like Amresh Singh. &nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10" data-rendition-name="original" width="1200" height="1600" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  To make local loyalties even more complicated, Amnish Yadav’s uncle, Harinder Yadav is an active NC member and walked side by side with Gagan Thapa during his door-to-door campaigns.&nbsp; The NC is betting on Thapa getting over 60% of the total votes. Amresh Singh’s tally could be limited to 10,000 votes — that too because of the nationwide RSP wave, and the popularity of its prime ministerial hopeful Balendra (Balen) Shah. “Amresh Singh lost his appeal when he played victim after he was denied a ticket by the NC in 2022,” Harinder Yadav says. Voters we spoke to here agreed with this assessment that Singh did not do much for the district once he got elected in the past, and being a part of the RSP seems to be his biggest asset. “The only reason I voted for Amresh Singh is because Balen is in RSP,” local voter Mahendra Gupta from Barathawa. &nbsp;“This is his last chance to return the people’s trust.”&nbsp; Gupta is aware of the institutional presence of the NC here. The party received the most votes in 2022 local elections, adding that the candidacy of someone as high-profile as Thapa is a positive sign for Sarlahi-4.&nbsp; Other voters like Ruby Gupta are rooting for both the NC and the RSP. “I will vote for Gagan and for Balen,” she says, adding that her FPTP vote will go to Thapa while her PR ballot would be for the RSP. RSP supporters are confident that their candidate will win big because even though many voters may not have openly voiced their support they still voted for the party and candidate. The Balen Wave was not limited to RSP voters, but also to UML candidate Yadav, who said in a gathering that he will be “the voters Balen” if they elect him. He touted his party’s track record in government, and largely campaigned on administrative efficiency, infrastructural expansion, and local service delivery. Amresh Singh ran on the RSP’s anti-establishment brand, promising to fight corruption, challenge traditional party politics, improve basic services such as education, health, jobs, and infrastructure, while pushing for stronger representation and development for Madhes.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="1200" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo:AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  Singh’s rivalry with his NC competitor goes beyond the ballot— he allegedly blames Thapa for being denied the NC ticket in 2022, which led him to win the election from Sarlahi-4 as an independent. &nbsp; For his part, Gagan Thapa focused on a more pragmatic development agenda that includes upgrading roads and irrigation, improving schools and hospitals, supporting farmers, and creating employment opportunities with improved governance at the centre. He also promised to build an engineering college in the constituency.&nbsp; Thapa also promoted his own anti-establishment image within the NC, repeatedly reminding voters on the campaign trail that he represents the aspirations of the youth.&nbsp; On Thursday, as voting progressed, there were violent disruptions in two centres where voting was briefly halted. But Sarlahi district police spokesperson Saroj Rai told Nepali Times that there were no major problems. Police in collaboration with the Nepal Army sent the ballot papers to the district’s counting stations, where the votes are expected to be tallied through the night and the winner announced Friday morning.

Sarlahi-4 nervously watches ballot count

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Nepal election live results

As this report is uploaded, the latest results in Nepal’s election show that the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) is headed for an even bigger sweep than most had predicted.
The RSP was leading by large margins in 49 of 165 constituencies, &nbsp;with the UML, NC and NCP trailing far behind. Prominent political figures from the old parties like K P Oli, Minwndra Prasad Rijal, Ishwar Pokhrel, Bishnu Prasad Poudel, Bimalendra Nidhi all seem headed for defeat.
It does look like the RSP’s bell election symbol is ringing right across Nepal — from cities to the remotest districts in the mountains and plains. The party’s blue colour is sweeping the land.
The Nepali people seem to have sent a clear message that they were throughly dissatisfied with the chronic failure of the three main parties to work in the national interest to create jobs and deliver development. It was also an expression of lingering outrage over the the 8 September massacre outside Parliament. &nbsp;
It now looks almost certain that Balendra Shah will get to be Nepal’s next, and youngest, prime minister. Hopefully he will be leading a cabinet of competent and honest technocrats. It remains to seen how the power equation between Shah and the RSP’s leader, Rabi Lamichhane will play out.
Lamichhane is out of jail on bail for fraud cases which he has called political vendetta by the previous regime. Both he and Shah are charismatic and ambitious. Their working relationship will determine Nepal's political stability and whether it can avoid the political cronyism of the past.
This election was not just about casting votes. It was about standing up to principles and a value system, and respecting the hopes and aspirations of Nepal’s youth. It to push for transparent government and against impunity — including for the gunning down of young Nepalis in cold blood.
<div class="embed-block"><iframe src="https://election-geo-dashboard.pages.dev/" width="100%" height="600" frameborder="0"> </iframe>Live election results as winners of candidates are announced.</div>
CAN DO MAN
Shah got mixed reviews as mayor. He was impulsive and ad hoc, but most people inKathmandu and beyond liked his can-do attitude and unconventional style which stood in sharp contract to the legacy leaders. Over his three year mayorship he showed more maturity and planning capacity.&nbsp;
But he always ran headlong into opposition from the federal government over his urban planning and other initiatives to make Kathmandu more liveable. Coming from a civil and structural engineering background, he was involved in building low-cost housing after the 2015 earthquake.
But his public persona is more tied to his irreverent rap lyrics that stood up for the marginalised underprivileged in society, while exposing the high-handedness and apathy of the state. But this also exposed contradictions because he also used his own municipal guards to beat and chase away street vendors and squatters.
But there is no doubt that a combination of the sharp messaging in his rap videos amplified by the algorithms of social media ignited Nepal’s youth to rise up. It was more about optics and emotion than policy and strategy.
He studied Kathmandu district for five years, visiting experts in every field before announcing his independent candidacy for mayor in 2022. Many like me in his own constitunecy did not know who he was and where he came from.
He is a year younger than my architect son, and I saw in him a reflection of my own son’s commitment to serving the nation. I voted for him to be mayor despite his sometimes erratic behaviour, which could be attributed to his youth.
The best sign of his strategic planning, which unsettled septuagenarian and octogenarian politicians, is the he did not grab the first easy option of becoming prime minister in September when GenZ activists offered him the post.&nbsp;
Joining RSP was a masterstroke, as was his challenge to Oli in Jhapa to project national branding. He needed a party platform and Lamichhane needed a popular prime ministerial persona since he himself could not hold the post.
Shah has shown the capacity to take risks when he believes the value justifies the action for the country. Now, he will have to show more strategic thinking on a national scale, as well as understand the delicate geopolitics of Nepal.&nbsp;
He must rise above the kind of crude social media posts that earned him followers on X, but did nothing to erase his erratic and impulsive image.&nbsp;
Some assume that behind his trademark RayBan shades is a closet dictator, and his past remarks about Hitler are still up on social media. He has in the past shown impatience with criticism, unleashing supporters on social media to troll detractors.&nbsp;
Even so, the public seems willing to place their hope on an educated young man with integrity and a proven record for planning at the helm. By tomorrow it will be clear whether the hope Nepalis have held has been fulfilled, and the coming years will show if the RSP will lead Nepalis to a better future.
The voters seem to have shown the door even to the NC despite the fact that under Gagan Thapa, the party had turned a new leaf. A strong government under Prime Minister Balendra Shah heading a carefully selected cabinet and a strong opposition of the NC, UML and other parties for check and balance may be just what we need for a stable Nepal.&nbsp;
Nepalis have collectively always shown maturity in elections. This time they have given a resounding endorsement for integrity and for good governance.

Bells ring all over Nepal

After Thursday’s election, Nepalis are in a wait-and-watch mode. The Election Commission says counting ballot papers will be expedited this time, and the results for the First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) will start being declared within days. In 2022, it took three weeks for the final results to be tallied.&nbsp;
But winning an election is only half the challenge for the parties, forming a government under parliamentary politics is like a complicated mathematical equation.&nbsp;
In 2022, the Nepali Congress (NC) emerged as the biggest party, winning 89 seats. But the UML with 78 seats and the Maoists with 32 formed a minority government. In fact, Sher Bahadur Deuba did not become PM then despite leading the biggest party in Parliament.
This time, there is an unmistakeable Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) wave led by its prime ministerial candidate, Balendra Shah. Besides his own popularity, Shah represents change which most Nepalis are clamouring for after decades of corrupt and feckless coalitions that did not deliver.&nbsp;
The past months of campaigning has seen massive youth engagement on social media through memes, AI clips, and viral images. Digital content that appeals to emotion rather than policy debate between candidates shape electoral outcomes in Nepal and elsewhere. &nbsp;
Shah represents GenZ aspirations, and was their candidate for prime minister. It was only when he declined that Sushila Karki was nominated. None of the political parties in the recent past -- new, old, or revolutionary — have won enough seats to go it alone.&nbsp;
The most recent majority government was formed by the short-lived Communist Party of Nepal after the UML-Maoist merger in 2022. But that rare two-thirds majority collapsed after a power struggle between K P Oli and Pushpa Kamal Dahal. The only party to have won a majority was the NC in the 1991 and 1999 elections. But it is near impossible for it to repeat this success now, even with Gagan Thapa's rebranding of the party.&nbsp;
We have compiled these possible scenarios for election outcome in order of likelihood:
RSP gets a majority
RSP hits the magic 138 to form a government entirely on its own. Balendra Shah wins Jhapa-5, and becomes the new prime minister at 35, the youngest ever to hold the office in Nepal. But danger lurks: there could be a personality clash between Shah and Lamichhane who are both equally ambitious. History could repeat itself.&nbsp;
RSP wins but does not get a majority
RSP is likely to sweep the most votes, but what if it does not secure enough seats for a majority? It would need a coalition partner and Nepali Communist Party (NCP) under Pushpa Kamal Dahal could fit the bill, but only if it has the numbers. The RSP is not likely to team up with the UML or NC.
The NCP is relatively untainted by the 8 September events, and also has former UML defectors like Madhav Kumar Nepal and Bhim Rawal who could bag their rural vote banks. After all, there are no permanent foes in politics. If the royalist RPP and Tarai-based Janata Samajwadi have enough seats, those could be options for the RSP. &nbsp;
NC is second
The NC under the new leadership of Gagan Thapa could become the second biggest force and form a government with RSP in a power-sharing deal with Shah. This would be the most stable scenario since the RSP and NC have competent and idealistic young technocrats. Thapa himself embodies a strong combination of both old and new politics to navigate the system for more efficient government. But then Thapa and the RSP's Rabi Lamichhane do not get along.
NC and NCP form a majority
If the NC becomes the largest party but not by a big margin, it could join up with the NCP and Ujyalo. Teaming up with the UML would likely face backlash with the party and outside. If Gagan Thapa becomes prime minister he will face internal pressure from both Deuba loyalists. Same old story.
Minority coalition of NC, UML and NCP
RSP becomes the first party but does not get a majority, paving the way for the three legacy parties to cobble together a minority government. While this is possible in Nepal’s parliamentary system, such a scenario is likely to lead to more instability and dissatisfaction among young Nepalis demanding change, and even trigger street unrest. &nbsp;

future

Back to the future in Nepal

Nepal in 2030

Sarlahi-4 nervously watches ballot count

Nepal election live results

Bells ring all over Nepal

The magic 138