Ukraine. Sudan. Gaza. Iran. This may not seem like a world war, but we are getting dangerously close to one.&nbsp;
Here in Nepal, we may think we are far removed from it all, but there are about 2 million Nepalis in Israel and the Gulf states, and an escalation would devastate our remittance-driven economy.&nbsp;
The Israeli attacks on Bandar Abbas and Iran’s threat to mine the Strait of Hormuz, set off some panic buying at petrol stations in Kathmandu this week. Petroleum makes up a quarter of Nepal’s import bill.
Ten Nepalis were killed in the Hamas attack on 7 October 2023, and one is still held hostage in Gaza. Nepali soldiers in the Russian Army are fighting and getting killed on the Ukraine front.&nbsp;
There are Nepali green card holders enlisted in the US military, and some of them took part in the Pyongyang-style military parade in Washington DC on 14 June. While the DPRK tries to deter enemies with military might, Trump’s parade was a warning to his own citizens not to step out of line.
In the background are warlike warnings on ‘Truth Social’ from the leader of a global superpower about joining Israel to bomb Iran.
Meanwhile, the other superpower is hitting apartments in Kyiv with guided missiles. Tv talk show guests in Moscow talk flippantly about nuking London.&nbsp;
Ukraine’s audacious drone attacks on Russia’s strategic bomber fleet proved what had been obvious for some time — &nbsp;the nature and scope of warfare has changed.
India and Pakistan in May also used UAVs and missiles against each other. And in a new twist, Pakistani J-10 fighters are said to have &nbsp;shot down two Indian aircraft, at least one of them a French-built Rafale jet.
Even if those reports are not true, air forces around the world are reassessing the capability of Chinese weaponry.
In both the India-Pakistan aerial combat in May and the ongoing Israeli raids on Iran, some of the targets were nuclear installations. We have to see if President Trump follows through on his warning to evacuate Tehran, but analysts see the US possibly deploying bunker buster bombs on underground Iranian nuclear weapons facilities.
Iran’s leaders have warned of retaliation, and US bases in Bahrain, Qatar and UAE could be targets. If that happens, all hell will break loose. While hoping that saner voices prevail, the world has to prepare for the three flashpoints that carry the danger of crossing the nuclear threshold: Russia-Ukraine, Israel-Iran and closer to home, India-Pakistan.&nbsp;
Nuclear deterrence may have prevented New Delhi and Islamabad from incinerating each other’s cities with atomic weapons, it also showed how a small miscalculation could have led to such escalation.
Both countries had primed their populations through propaganda and mass media to bay for blood. On social media Indians and Pakistanis were already nuking each other with hate speech, exhorting their leaders to press launch buttons.
In all three conflicts, that is where the danger lies: public so consumed by manufactured hatred magnified by the social web that the notion of nuclear deterrence has become meaningless.&nbsp;
Ukraine’s drone attacks deep within Russia and India’s use of loitering munitions have changed conventional warfare. Expensive stealth bombers, main battle tanks, surface-to-air missile launch sites are all obsolete because these legacy weapons can be destroyed by drones which can be ordered online on Amazon.&nbsp;
The way these three world wars are being waged, and the loss of America’s nuclear umbrella have also triggered a rearmament race. Money has been diverted from development, climate mitigation (and in a tragic irony) famines unleashed by wars.
We in Nepal worry about radioactive fallout from a limited or all-out nuclear exchange between India and Pakistan. But there is also the danger of a showdown between a wounded Iran and nuclear-armed Israel, or even Russia’s use of tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine. There is also the ever-present danger of nuclear terrorism by non-state actors.
And if all that was not worrying enough, here is another danger: the spread of millions of drones equipped with AI targeting.&nbsp;
As Stuart Russel at the University of California Berkeley warns in his film Slaughterbots, the world may need another disarmament treaty to control weapons that are not controlled by humans.&nbsp;
Kunda Dixit

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World wars

Following the 7 October 2023 attack on Israel by <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/more-than-29000-palestinians-have-been-killed-in-gaza-since-wars-start-health-ministry-says#:~:text=RAFAH%2C%20Gaza%20Strip%20(AP),of%20the%20Israeli%2DPalestinian%20conflict." target="_blank">Hamas-led militants</a>, Israel’s response has led to unprecedented high mortality levels in Gaza. The Palestinian death toll over the 12 month period is among the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/interactive/2023/israel-war-destruction-gaza-record-pace/" target="_blank">highest</a> civilian casualty rates in the 21st century. During the first seven months of the war, Israel is estimated to have dropped more than <a href="https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/amount-of-israeli-bombs-dropped-on-gaza-surpasses-that-of-world-war-ii/3239665" target="_blank">70,000 tons</a> of bombs on Gaza, far <a href="https://www.trtworld.com/middle-east/amount-of-israeli-bombs-dropped-on-gaza-surpasses-that-of-world-war-ii-18169607" target="_blank">surpassing</a> that of Dresden, Hamburg, and London combined during World War II, that includes <a href="https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/legal-questions-answered-and-unanswered-in-israel-s-air-war-in-gaza" target="_blank">bombing</a> with 900 kg <a href="https://apnews.com/article/israel-gaza-bombs-destruction-death-toll-scope-419488c511f83c85baea22458472a796" target="_blank">bunker-busters</a>, which is one of the most intense civilian <a href="https://apnews.com/article/israel-gaza-bombs-destruction-death-toll-scope-419488c511f83c85baea22458472a796" target="_blank">punishment campaign</a>s in history. Despite US President Joe Biden’s declarations of <a href="https://www.npr.org/2024/05/29/nx-s1-4983786/where-is-the-biden-administrations-red-line-when-it-comes-palestinian-deaths-in-gaza" target="_blank">red lines</a>, calls for restraint and <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/biden-ultimatum-netanyahu-protect-gaza-civilians-or-else-2024-04-05/" target="_blank">ultimatum</a> for Israel to limit Palestinian civilian deaths, the president has experienced a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/08/opinion/bidens-moral-failure-in-israel.html" target="_blank">moral failure</a> with his unwavering backing of Israel with unequal treatment and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/08/opinion/bidens-moral-failure-in-israel.html" target="_blank">oppression</a> of Palestinians. While seeking peace, the president has <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/05/opinion/biden-israel-war.html" target="_blank">facilitated</a> the Israel-Gaza war. Dozens of <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/may/30/two-more-us-officials-resign-over-biden-administrations-position-on-gaza-war" target="_blank">U.S. officials</a> have resigned over the Biden administration’s position in the conflict, accusing their own government of not telling the truth about <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/may/30/two-more-us-officials-resign-over-biden-administrations-position-on-gaza-war" target="_blank">Israel’s obstruction</a> of humanitarian aid to Gaza. The reported levels of mortality provide a stark picture of the war’s lethal consequences on human life in Gaza and Israel. In addition to the mortality based on official reported deaths by Israeli and Palestinian authorities, higher levels of mortality have been estimated by health experts. According to Israeli officials, the number of Israeli deaths resulting from the attack in southern Israel on 7 October was <a href="https://www.inss.org.il/publication/all-fronts/" target="_blank">1,163,</a> with <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/12/world/middleeast/israel-death-toll-hamas-attack.html" target="_blank">70 percent</a> of the victims identified as civilians. The attack is considered to be Israel’s worst <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israeli-military-opens-probe-into-reports-oct-7-friendly-fire-deaths-2024-02-06/#:~:text=Around%201%2C200%20Israelis%20and%20foreigners,240%20people%20were%20taken%20hostage." target="_blank">loss of life</a> in a single day since its founding in 1948.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20241104061144_c20df646c520d048f8892ec4f0c060e13a43663da3f31d98167faa8b836a1e24.png" data-media-id="editor_17" data-image-id="20241104061144_c20df646c520d048f8892ec4f0c060e13a43663da3f31d98167faa8b836a1e24" data-rendition-name="original" width="1254" height="1180" loading="lazy" alt="Israel-Gaza war"> <figcaption>Source: Reported mortality from Israel Shin Bet, Gaza Ministry of Health and United Nations.</figcaption> </figure>  In addition to those deaths on 7 October, at least <a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/a-year-of-war-idf-data-shows-726-troops-killed-over-26000-rockets-fired-at-israel/#:~:text=A%20total%20of%20728%20soldiers,the%20ground%20offensive%20in%20Gaza." target="_blank">728 Israeli soldiers</a> have been killed in combat since the Gaza ground invasion began, and <a href="https://watson.brown.edu/costsofwar/files/cow/imce/papers/2023/2024/Costs%20of%20War_Human%20Toll%20Since%20Oct%207.pdf" target="_blank">33 Israeli deaths</a> occurred in the West Bank. Given Israel’s total population of nearly <a href="https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2024-09-26/ty-article/.premium/israels-population-approaches-10-million-according-to-annual-census/00000192-2a51-d1f6-a596-6b594fac0000" target="_blank">10 million</a>, the number of Israeli deaths on 7 October and the subsequent twelve months represents about 0.02% of the country’s &nbsp;population, or 20 deaths per 100,000 population. The death toll in Gaza from Israeli military operations after one year following 7 October is <a href="https://english.alarabiya.net/News/middle-east/2024/10/07/health-ministry-gaza-says-war-death-toll-at-41-909-" target="_blank">41,909 Palestinians</a>. That number of deaths represents about 2% of the Palestinians in Gaza. Israel says the proportion of Hamas fighters among the Palestinian deaths is approximately <a href="https://www.inss.org.il/publication/all-fronts/" target="_blank">40 percent</a>. While the Gaza Ministry of Health does not identify whether the deaths are civilian or combatant, approximately <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/10/7/one-year-of-israels-war-on-gaza-a-simple-guide" target="_blank">two-thirds</a> are reported to be women and children. According to Oxfam, the war in Gaza killed more <a href="https://www.oxfam.org/en/press-releases/more-women-and-children-killed-gaza-israeli-military-any-other-recent-conflict" target="_blank">women and children</a> than any other war in the last two decades. The reported number deaths of Palestinians are deemed generally accurate and <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(23)02713-7/fulltext" target="_blank">widely accepted</a> by international monitoring organisations, including Israeli and US intelligence agencies. Independent <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(23)02713-7/fulltext#:~:text=The%20Gaza%20MoH%20has%20historically,an%208%C2%B70%25%20discrepancy." target="_blank">studies</a> of the deaths reported by the Gaza Ministry of Health show no evidence of inflated mortality figures. In addition to the nearly 42 thousand Palestinian deaths, Israel’s military action in Gaza has left many more <a href="https://truthout.org/articles/israel-has-killed-wounded-or-rendered-missing-10-percent-of-gaza-population/" target="_blank">wounded</a>, exposed to <a href="https://www.csis.org/analysis/gaza-impacts-famine-will-last-generations" target="_blank">famine</a> and disease and most of Gaza’s population <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/gaza-families-flee-again-shrinking-overcrowded-pocket-land-2023-12-05/" target="_blank">homeless</a>. With an estimated total population of approximately <a href="https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/countries/gaza-strip/#people-and-society" target="_blank">2.1 million </a>in Gaza, the Palestinian death rate from the war after one year is 1,957 deaths per 100,000 population. That Palestinian death rate in Gaza is 100 times greater than the Israeli death rate. Applying the Israeli and Palestinian death rates to the United States, illustrates the striking differences in the mortality levels and their demographic impacts. When the death rate in Gaza is applied to America’s population, the resulting mortality would be nearly 6.6 million deaths. Similarly, applying the Israeli death rate to the US population yields close to 66 thousand deaths.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20241104061144_93228568c2789f9034f3dac2ff7fd864a18c1cb844757dc104a9cdabfe687094.png" data-media-id="editor_31" data-image-id="20241104061144_93228568c2789f9034f3dac2ff7fd864a18c1cb844757dc104a9cdabfe687094" data-rendition-name="original" width="1250" height="884" loading="lazy" alt="Isreal-Gaza war mortality"> <figcaption>Source: Reported mortality for Israelis from Israel Shin Bet and for Palestinians from Gaza Ministry of Health, and the estimates of U.S. mortality levels calculated by author.</figcaption> </figure>  The true death toll in Gaza is likely to be <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/interactive/2023/gaza-rising-death-toll-civilians/" target="_blank">higher</a> than being reported by the Gaza Ministry of Health because of the humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza with more than <a href="https://www.newsnationnow.com/world/war-in-israel/oct-7-how-many-dead-israel-hamas-war/" target="_blank">10,000 missing</a>, untold numbers buried under rubble and many experiencing disease and malnutrition, as <a href="https://time.com/6549715/history-israel-hamas-war-end/" target="_blank">humanitarian assistance</a> is limited by Israel’s <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/2/21/in-gaza-city-death-and-famine-take-hold-amid-israels-war#:~:text=About%20half%20the%20population%20of,As%20are%20meat%20and%20dairy." target="_blank">blockade</a>. <a href="https://www.gazahealthcareletters.org/usa-letter-oct-2-2024" target="_blank">One group</a> of 99 American health care workers returning from Gaza estimated that the true death toll there is at least <a href="https://truthout.org/articles/us-health-workers-back-from-gaza-estimate-death-toll-is-at-least-119000/#:~:text=As%20the%20anniversary%20of%20the,count%2C%20if%20not%20far%20higher." target="_blank">four times higher</a> than the official reported count, or approximately 119,000.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20241104061148_c2c1bb65e66cd23d09b0e07dd5fedc6c9762c34e5c94c7630c7b8beb28a6d0a5.png" data-media-id="editor_38" data-image-id="20241104061148_c2c1bb65e66cd23d09b0e07dd5fedc6c9762c34e5c94c7630c7b8beb28a6d0a5" data-rendition-name="original" width="1250" height="912" loading="lazy" alt="Israel-Gaza war mortality"> <figcaption>Source: Reported: Gaza Ministry of Health; Estimated (1): Sidhwa; Estimated (2): Khatib, McKee &amp; Yusuf; Estimated (3): Sridhar.</figcaption> </figure>  A <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(24)01169-3/fulltext" target="_blank">second analysis</a> by a team of three researchers published in <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(24)01169-3/fulltext" target="_blank">The Lancet,</a> estimated that the number of deaths in Gaza by mid-year was about 186,000. The researchers estimated that the actual death toll could conservatively be about four times the reporting figure and that &nbsp;includes direct deaths due to bombings as well as indirect deaths due to the destruction of the health, food and sanitation systems in Gaza. A <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/sep/05/scientists-death-disease-gaza-polio-vaccinations-israel" target="_blank">third analysis</a> of the deaths in Gaza by the chair of global public health at the University of Edinburgh estimated the death toll to be even higher. The number of deaths in Gaza twelve months after the 7 October attack is estimated at approximately 336,000, and that mortality level also took into account indirect deaths due to widespread disease and starvation. The mortality levels of the Israelis and the Palestinians in Gaza are both high and strikingly dissimilar. Over the past year, the reported number of Palestinian deaths in Gaza is about 20 times greater than the number of Israeli deaths. Also, the mortality rate of the Palestinians is 100 times greater than the Israeli mortality rate. In addition to direct reporting of deaths due to bombing and military operations, the crisis in Gaza has led to high levels of indirect deaths. Those deaths are mainly due to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/29/opinion/gaza-israel-palestinians-starvation.html?campaign_id=2&amp;emc=edit_th_20240229&amp;instance_id=116455&amp;nl=todaysheadlines&amp;regi_id=26794078&amp;segment_id=159553&amp;user_id=238d32f2dc633f67c3b731d28b9421f3" target="_blank">malnutrition</a>, wasting, stunting and trauma reaching famine thresholds largely due to the <a href="https://www.nrc.no/news/2024/september/israels-siege-now-blocks-83-of-food-aid-reaching-gaza-new-data-reveals/" target="_blank">Israeli blockade</a>. UNICEF has <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/dec/29/health-organisations-disease-gaza-population-outbreaks-conflict" target="_blank">warned</a> that the lack of water, food, medicine, sanitation, road and electricity infrastructures is a bigger threat than bombs to the lives of thousands in Gaza. The true death toll in Gaza may not be known for many years, especially as indirect deaths are expected to exceed the direct death toll. However, based on reported and estimated mortality, it appears clear that the Palestinian death toll in Gaza is among the <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/interactive/2023/israel-war-destruction-gaza-record-pace/" target="_blank">highest</a> civilian mortality rates of the 21st century. Joseph Chamie is a consulting demographer, a former director of the United Nations Population Division and author of numerous publications on population issues, including his recent book, <a href="https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-031-22479-9?source=shoppingads&amp;locale=en-jp#toc" target="_blank">“Population Levels, Trends, and Differentials”</a>.

Mortality in the Gaza-Israel War

With the ongoing war, innocent <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/newsbeat-44124396">death and destruction in Palestine by Israel</a>, the recognition of the state of Palestine stands out as the most complicated issue in the history of state recognition.&nbsp; Both Israel and Palestine have their own history and geography as well as their supporters and opponents. Israel's war in the region is escalating, as the air strikes on Lebanon on Sunday shows.&nbsp; It should be acknowledged that Israel and Palestine have equal rights to statehood, to exist, to defend, and to live in peace. Israel and Nepal both applied for <a href="https://thediplomat.com/2020/12/5-facts-about-nepals-un-membership/">membership of the UN at the General Assembly</a> in 1949. Israel’s application was proceeded by the Assembly and approved by the Security Council in the same year.&nbsp; Nepal’s membership was blocked until 1955 at the Security Council because of a Soviet veto. In 1960 Nepal was the first South Asian country to recognise Israel by a unilateral government decision and established diplomatic relations. Nepal supported Palestine statehood both at the Non-Aligned forum in the 1980s and the UN General Assembly in recent times. Nepal should now make a formal and unilateral declaration in support of full recognition of the State of Palestine.&nbsp; Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/the-world-s-moral-failure-in-gaza">The world’s moral failure in Gaza</a>, Graça Machel This should be a declaration similar to what Nepal government issued vis-a-vis Israel decades ago, and a new declaration is especially warranted because of the misuse of the veto power by the United States, blocking Palestine’s full membership of the UN. Nepal may emphatically remind itself of being similarly blocked from becoming a UN member for five years because of the Soviet veto. The Palestine question has become a ‘politics of international law’ within and outside the UN. In May 2024, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-68983650">the General Assembly referred a proposal to the Security Council</a>, calling for the admission of Palestine as a full member of the UN. The United States used its veto against it. After the US veto Norway, Ireland, Spain and several European countries declared Palestine statehood unilaterally.&nbsp; Informed debate on Palestinian statehood is a rare subject in the Nepali media. Hamas terror on 7 October, 2023 in Israel in which <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepalis-confirmed-killed-in-hamas-attack">10 Nepali students were killed</a> and one Nepali citizen is still being hostage, was rightly condemned by the Nepal government and media.&nbsp; Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/hamas-releases-thais-but-where-is-bipin">Hamas releases Thais, but where is Bipin?</a>  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240827110848_99ae0b3f0825f77dbc91027d5084b46e6b44318a11067dfbc967824925ed5656.jpg" data-media-id="editor_6" data-image-id="20240827110848_99ae0b3f0825f77dbc91027d5084b46e6b44318a11067dfbc967824925ed5656" data-rendition-name="original" width="2400" height="1667" loading="lazy" alt="Damage after an Israeli airstrike on Gaza City on October 2023 NT 2"> <figcaption>The damage following an Israeli airstrike on the El-Remal area in Gaza City on October 9 2023. Photo: NAAMAN OMAR/ WIKIMEDIA</figcaption> </figure>  Anyone who believes in international rule of law must condemn acts of terrorism whether it is by state or non-state actors. But the Nepal government and media seem to be silent on condemning acts of genocide in Gaza. This is despite the<a href="https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/experts-react/experts-react-what-the-international-court-of-justice-said-and-didnt-say-in-the-genocide-case-against-israel/"> International Court of Justice acknowledging ‘plausible genocide’</a> by Israel that is not a proportinate response to terrorism.&nbsp; The Nepal government should declare Palestine statehood in the same manner as Prime Minister BP Koirala's government recognised Israel in 1960 -- a bold, unilateral and formal recognition – even though Nepal voted in favour of Palestine in resolutions at the UN General Assembly and Non-Aligned countries' conferences. Of 193 UN member states, 146 have voted for and 94 countries have established formal diplomatic relations with Palestine, yet it is still being <a href="https://press.un.org/en/2024/sc15670.doc.htm">blocked from full UN membership</a>. The state practice of recognition follows political realities and the process varies from case to case. In the case of Palestine, especially in opposition to the United States veto, Nepal should make an official endorsement with other countries like Norway and Spain to strengthen the de jure status of Palestine. &nbsp; Nepal’s expressed solidarity with Palestine is noteworthy, but voting in UN resolutions is not enough for de jure recognition of Palestine since the Security Council approval is lacking. The<a href="https://press.un.org/en/2024/ga12599.doc.htm"> UN General Assembly only gave de facto recognition of Palestine</a>, which helped to upgrade its non-state observer status to a UN member. However, it is still awaiting recognition of de jure sovereignty as well as full membership of the UN. Read also:<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/protests-of-despair"> Protests of despair</a>, Slavoj Žižek Right or wrong, the Security Council has ultimate authority to declare so-called ‘hard law’. Under the UN hierarchy of its five permanent members (US, UK, France, Russia and China) have the authority to block any substantive decision. UN records shows that the United States has used its veto 42 times in favour of Israel. All attempts to recognise Palestine’s de jure sovereignty have been blocked by the United States. Contrary to the Security Council, the General Assembly is the global legitimate forum. The Assembly resolutions, however, are only recommendatory, lacking binding force. The weakness of the Assembly resolutions, lamentably, is that they usually form so-called ‘soft law’, but which can still be seen as binding law. The Security Council and supporters of ‘hard law’ do not perceive Assembly resolutions as binding law. Israel is defying not only the International Court of Justice’s rulings but also the orders of Security Council. As a response to a recent request by the General Assembly, the <a href="https://www.icj-cij.org/node/204176">International Court of Justice on July 19 gave an advisory opinion</a> in which it declared that Israel’s occupation of Palestinian territories since 1967 was unlawful. Israel and the United States did not recognise the Court's opinion on this issue.&nbsp; Palestine has some weaknesses to fulfill statehood, which is also the case of Israel. For example, Palestine does not have full control over its territory since it is under occupation. When it comes to Israel, there is a problem with its democracy, democracy being known as a modern criterion of statehood in addition to territory, control over territory, population and government. In this context, Israeli democracy is not free of criticism, with some even calling it an <a href="https://www.vox.com/23924319/israel-palestine-apartheid-meaning-history-debate">‘apartheid state’</a>.&nbsp; Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/guest-editorial/the-international-order-is-dying-in-gaza">The International Order Is Dying in Gaza</a>, Mohamed ElBaradei For Palestine to be regarded as a fully sovereign State under international law, it must obtain de jure recognition -- this means legal acknowledgement by the international community. Some are calling for an Israel-Palestine ‘bi-national state’, a homeland for both Jews and Palestinians, but only de jure sovereign Palestine may be helpful for future peace in West Asia.&nbsp; Nepal’s new unilateral declaration will not by itself be enough to make Palestine a sovereign state. It will, nonetheless, make history. Or at least Nepal will be standing courageously on the right side of the history. &nbsp;&nbsp; Katak Malla is a Senior Fellow at the Stockholm Centre for International Law and Justice in Stockholm University.

Nepal should recognise Palestinian sovereignty

The 7 October Hamas attack on southern Israel near the Gaza border killed 1,139 people, 764 of them civilians, 251 were taken hostage, with Nepali student Bipin Joshi possibly among them.&nbsp;
Of the 17 work-study Nepalis at Kibbutz Alumim, 10 were mercilessly murdered by Hamas. This newspaper covered the tragic deaths, profiled the students describing their hopes and dreams, and spoke to their grief-stricken families in western Nepal.&nbsp;
Although the conflicts in West Asia may seem distant, the deaths proved that they directly impact Nepalis. There are thousands of Nepali caregivers and students in Israel, and at least 2.5 million others employed in the Gulf region who will be affected in case the conflict spreads. A larger conflagration would affect food and fuel prices, and further harm Nepal’s struggling remittance-driven economy.
The Israel-Palestine conflict is rooted in history that goes back to the British mandate by the League of Nations and the establishment of the state of Israel in 1948 following the Holocaust. Although the Jewish people were granted a national home, they were also supposed to protect the rights of the Arab majority in the land.
The conflicts in Gaza, Yemen, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq today are essentially proxy wars between Saudi-UAE vs Iran. And because an enemy of an enemy is considered a friend, Israel patched up with Saudi-Emirates which explains the muted response from Gulf governments (and the West) about what is happening in Gaza.&nbsp;
Since 7 October, the world has watched the unending horror of Israel’s asymmetric and disproportionate retaliation against Palestinian civilians. Nearly 38,000 people have been killed in Gaza alone, more than 15,000 of them babies and children.&nbsp;
The Israeli state cannot use Hamas terrorism as an excuse for its own war crimes. The air time and column inches the Western media devoted last week to the freeing of four Israeli hostages was much more than the collateral killing of 274 Palestinians during the rescue.&nbsp;
More journalists (mostly Palestinians) have been killed in 8 months than in all the six years of World War II. Nearly all schools and hospitals have been destroyed. Journalists in Gaza are risking their lives to bring the humanitarian catastrophe to the world's attention. Without them, we would not know the truth.&nbsp;
But even as a military strategy this is not smart. Israel does not have an exit plan.This is not war, it flouts all international conventions on the rules of warfare. A genocide perpetrated 80 years ago cannot justify another one today.&nbsp;
The Israeli government must know what it is doing is wrong because it is thin-skinned about any reference to ‘genocide’ and label everyone from student protesters at US universities to world leaders who speak out ‘anti-Semites’.&nbsp;
When António Guterres only obliquely said the Hamas attack “did not happen in a vacuum”, it was intolerable for the Israelis. The government lashed back at the United Nations Secretary-General. Israel has also hit back at South Africa for filing a genocide case at International Court of Justice in The Hague for its conduct of the war.&nbsp;
After nearly eight months of relentless bombardment, many Gazans are so fed up that there is reported to be growing resentment against Hamas for using them as human shields. It is clear Hamas does not care much about civilian lives either.&nbsp;
But there is also deep distress among ordinary Israelis about how Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has sullied their country’s international image.&nbsp;
Netanyahu himself is not fighting Hamas, he is fighting for his political longevity by appeasing extremist coalition partners.
On Monday he dissolved the war cabinet after former general and opposition leader Benny Gantz resigned, Netanyahu is replacing it with a smaller war council made up of hard-right members who now want to go after Hezbollah in Lebanon.
During his acceptance speech at this year’s Oscars in March, Jonathan Glazer, the Jewish director of the movie Zone of Interest set in Auschwitz during the Holocaust, said: “Right now, we stand here as men who refute their Jewishness and the Holocaust being hijacked by an occupation which has led to conflict for so many innocent people. Whether the victims of October 7 in Israel or the on-going attack on Gaza — all the victims of this dehumanisation, how do we resist?”
Nepal recognised the Palestinian state in 1988, and was only the second Asian country to establish bilateral relations with Israel in 1960 at a time when the Jewish state was regarded as a pariah by most of the world. B P Koirala’s friendship with David Ben Gurion was an important factor behind the move.&nbsp;
We wonder what B P would say today of the annihilation of Gaza.
Sonia Awale

Crime against humanity in Gaza

Many of us former Nepal Peace Corps volunteers (PCVs) would agree that our time in Nepal changed in significant but very different ways our perspectives on life if not the future paths we chose to follow. Of no one was this truer than Dorothy Mierow. Dorothy was born in 1920, in Colorado Springs. Her father Charles C Mierow was a classics scholar and Latin professor, who served for ten years as president of Colorado College.&nbsp; Dorothy developed an interest in animals as a child, graduated with a BA degree in natural history from Carlton College in 1942, a Master’s in biology from the University of Pittsburgh, and another Master’s in geography from the University of Minnesota.&nbsp; As a young woman, Dorothy traveled with her father throughout Europe, including a visit to ancient Greek ruins, and took a Magellan Tour by cruise ship around the world in 1958.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025071901074_0bad133ab22aada319e74bbad95d563e191371db291c08f373839fbd15440262.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="2025071901074_0bad133ab22aada319e74bbad95d563e191371db291c08f373839fbd15440262" data-rendition-name="original" width="903" height="1178" loading="lazy" alt="How the Peace Corps changed a volunteer's life"> <figcaption>HOME AWAY FROM HOME: Dorothy Mierow as a college student in her native Colorado.</figcaption> </figure>  She was a college teacher during much of the 1940s, also teaching at a girls’ school in Hawaii. Then back to her native Colorado in 1953, where she became a curator and later director of the Colorado College Natural History Museum. She taught geography classes, and in her free time, Dorothy climbed 22 of Colorado’s 14,000-foot peaks. Traveling in India in 1960, Dorothy decided to spend two weeks in Nepal. In late 1961, she filled out an application to join the Peace Corps and specified that she wanted to go to Nepal, ‘because I admired the people so much when my father and I were there on our trip’.&nbsp; Dorothy reached Kathmandu in September 1962 as the first group of American Peace Corps volunteers in Nepal. She stood out from the others: one of the few women in that group, surely the oldest at age 41, a world traveler, and a woman who already had established a professional career.&nbsp; One doubts if Dorothy had had a husband and children whether she would ever have gone to work and spend much of the rest of her life in Nepal.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025071901078_68e84ade1ffb0f6c83c7f8fa5c1e7315b5f6c543217f96cde012e4d86f171515.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="2025071901078_68e84ade1ffb0f6c83c7f8fa5c1e7315b5f6c543217f96cde012e4d86f171515" data-rendition-name="original" width="1259" height="910" loading="lazy" alt="How th Peace Corps changed a volunteer's life NT"> <figcaption>Pokhara Bazar in 1962.</figcaption> </figure>  The Peace Corps assigned Dorothy to teach geography at Tri-Chandra College. After the school closed in the winter due to lack of heating, USAID and the College of Education asked Dorothy to help train general science teachers.&nbsp; She taught for two months and became involved in a textbook-writing project, commenting: ‘I would like the children to know something about public health, conservation (the trees are going fast and so is the soil), and learn the names of some of their common birds, trees, and flowers. They are more impressed with electricity, airplanes, and cell structure.’ When a new college opened in Pokhara in 1963, Dorothy was transferred there and lived with a Nepali family. The college boasted 30 students and no permanent buildings.&nbsp; In October 1963, Dorothy wrote: ‘Pokhara is a town of almost 5,000 people … We are in a fertile valley surrounded by foothills … There is a small Mission Hospital … a Leper Hospital and Tibetan Refugee Camp started by the Red Cross and now run by the Swiss. With winter approaching, more Tibetans are appearing in town, often with pack horses or donkeys. Some have been carrying large boxes of powdered milk,donated (by USAID) to the camp from the airport … There is no electricity, and the transportation problems make many items scarce and expensive. I am really a sort of a museum. The landlord brings all kinds of people in to see how I live and count my shoes and dresses. They express amazement at my books, pictures, tin oven, Nepali dolls from Kathmandu, screened food shelves and curtained closet.’ The standard term for Peace Corps volunteers was two years, but Dorothy extended her term and was still at Prithvi Narayan College at the end of 1965, when she wrote that she had 20 Geography students in the first-year class and 6 in the second year preparing for the IA Examination. The college enrollment was 125 students, and the foundation for a new science building was being excavated.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025071901074_c6a80e5e0db0c705b2f8733c6d30dc0386fe3abbd2238ea9d947b7d746f94a29.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="2025071901074_c6a80e5e0db0c705b2f8733c6d30dc0386fe3abbd2238ea9d947b7d746f94a29" data-rendition-name="original" width="902" height="605" loading="lazy" alt="How the Peace Corps changed a volunteer's life"> <figcaption>Mierow and friends at Phewa Lake.</figcaption> </figure>  Dorothy noted that she ate one meal a day at the (Shining Mission) Hospital but otherwise lived on dal-bhat, momo, and potato curry at local shops. However, she had developed a new passion: to build what she initially called the Pokhara Museum of the Himalaya. In commendable Peace Corps fashion, Dorothy always worked with Nepalis and respected the culture. ‘The greatest joy and satisfaction I have had has been from the building of a Museum-Library in memory of my parents … It has been possible to feel like a wealthy benefactor with the money saved by father for the family’s education and now available for the education of others… (Father) would have loved to be in on the founding of a new college and be able to plan a library. Several hundred of the books to be in the museum-library came from his collection and were carefully selected to be of use for students in Nepal…’&nbsp; ‘The museum part is to satisfy my own inclinations and was thought of when I found how little diversion there was for the people of Pokhara… It is part of the University requirements for the college that it should have a geography and biology museum. The museum building is small but adequate.&nbsp; I have tried to design it in harmony with Nepalese architecture and decorate it with some of the art of the best artists or woodcarvers… Posts holding up the porch roof are carved by Cottage Industries to represent different peoples of Nepal in typical costumes. The door was carved by a local wood carver and has typical birds of Nepal around it. Inside are 10 roof-support carvings designed by the retired Director of the National Museum in Kathmandu, Mr. C.M. Maskey.&nbsp; They were carved by the best wood carvers in Patan very skilfully. The building has three rooms: the library, the exhibition room, and a smaller workroom which can be used by our newly formed Woman’s Club as well as other groups or classes.’  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025071901074_03d3359c65389d30a0134e9a4862778994121e7e833b7d28b18e06e36fc76ff8.jpg" data-media-id="editor_3" data-image-id="2025071901074_03d3359c65389d30a0134e9a4862778994121e7e833b7d28b18e06e36fc76ff8" data-rendition-name="original" width="629" height="599" loading="lazy" alt="How the Peace Corps changed a volunteer's life"> <figcaption>Mierow with local women in Pokhara in 1969.</figcaption> </figure>  Dorothy promoted her project to influential Nepalis connected with organisations whose support she solicited: The Department of Archaeology, the Department of Agriculture, the Godavari Botanical Gardens; Tribhuvan University’s Science and Education Department, Nature Conservation Society.&nbsp; The museum was opened officially in early 1967. The Annapurna Natural History Museum, the building Dorothy designed and had constructed, is still open and features some exhibits which she created many years ago.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025071901074_54326a8a0685e980e782378076de2f5cd02d2426e9b0d94eed972d3dbe83af26.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="2025071901074_54326a8a0685e980e782378076de2f5cd02d2426e9b0d94eed972d3dbe83af26" data-rendition-name="original" width="1333" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="How the Peace Corps changed a volunteer's life"> <figcaption>The Annapurna Natural History Museum.</figcaption> </figure>  Dorothy returned to America in 1967, but she longed for Nepal. In the spring of 1969, she again tried to enroll as a Peace Corps volunteer but was told that as she had spent more than four years, she would not be eligible for another assignment. Undeterred, she persuaded the college in Pokhara to invite her to return as a teacher.&nbsp; UNICEF and the Forestry Department sponsored Dorothy to prepare charts on trees, birds, animals and flowers in colour for distribution to the schools of Nepal. Dorothy, back in the Peace Corps, returned to Pokhara and the Museum in 1972. She formed a friendship with her former geography student from Sikles, Chandra Prasad Gurung, and in 1974, she brought Chandra to America, where he enrolled in Colorado College and studied cultural anthropology.&nbsp; Chandra subsequently earned his PhD in geography from the University of Hawaii and returned to Pokhara to become director of the Annapurna Conservation Area Project. Gurung actively promoted ecotourism, landscape conservation, and biodiversity conservation in Nepal. His life was cut short along with those of 23 other Nepalis and foreigners who perished in a helicopter crash near Taplejung in September 2006.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025071901074_322d3c3ac6f1b08ffa07c44a19998b937a7db9eb43527f7539cf6481e1546314.jpg" data-media-id="editor_5" data-image-id="2025071901074_322d3c3ac6f1b08ffa07c44a19998b937a7db9eb43527f7539cf6481e1546314" data-rendition-name="original" width="2500" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="How the Peace Corps changed a volunteer's life"> <figcaption>Mierow's four books on Nepal and its biodiversity. </figcaption> </figure>  Dorothy worked with several well-known Nepalis to publish her paintings and photos in beautifully illustrated books. She and Hemanta Mishra of the National Parks and Wildlife Service wrote Wild Animals of Nepal (Ratna Pustak Bhandar, 1976). More than 400 photos Dorothy took on treks to the Everest region, Gosaikunda, Muktinath, Jumla and Rara Lake, as well as travels in the Tarai, appeared in Himalayan Flowers and Trees (Sahayogi Prakashan, 1978).&nbsp; The botanist Tirtha Bahadur Shrestha identified the species. Dorothy and Kesar Lall published This Beautiful Nepal (Sahayogi Press, 1981). Birds of the Central Himalayas (1988) contained Dorothy’s paintings of 250 species of birds found along the areas of the Kali Gandaki River, Pokhara, Chitwan and the central Tarai. Dorothy summed up her life and work in Nepal in Thirty Years in Pokhara (Pilgrims Book House, 1997). Dorothy returned to Pokhara and her adopted Gurung family several times during the 1980s and 1990s to celebrate festivals and meet old friends. Her final years were spent at her mountain cottage in Green Mountain Falls north of Colorado Springs. She died at the age of 79 in August, 2000. Nepal gave new meaning and purpose to Dorothy Mierow’s life. Daniel W Edwards was a Peace Corps volunteer in 1966 and is the author of several books on Nepal. The author thanks Special Collections, Tutt Library, Colorado College.

How the Peace Corps changed a volunteer’s life

Does anyone know that 2023-33 was declared the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/visit-nepal-again">Visit Nepal</a> Decade? Or that Pokhara announced that 2025 is a Special Tourism Year? The fuselage of Nepal Airlines jets still carry the Visit Nepal Year 2020 logos. Such ad hoc and unnoticed promotion is emblematic of the way Nepal has tried to increase visitor arrivals <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-hopes-for-tourism-rebound-in-2021-rk4dlo9t">post-Covid</a> — and of the country’s wider political disarray. Deepak Raj Joshi of the Nepal Tourism Board (NTB) has his work cut out to coordinate various agencies of the government to boost arrivals.&nbsp; He says, “We have been working on marketing strategies to revive the tourism sector, and are hopeful that this year will mark a 8-10% increase in arrivals compared to the pre-pandemic times.” On paper, tourist numbers have rebounded to pre-Covid numbers with over 1 million last year, but official figures do not give a true picture of duration of stay, average spending, and the fact every visitor is counted as a ‘tourist’, even repeat visitors who come on business. The few bright spots are largely a result of private sector promotion of niche tourism products, individual social media posts of <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/page/top-10-treks">adventurous treks in Nepal</a>, or the fact that Indians are allowed to enter China again to visit Lake Mansarovar and Mt Kailash via Nepal. Indeed, Simkot airport has up to 15 flights a day from Nepalganj bringing in <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/borderlines/nepal-india-trans-boundary-bonds">Indian pilgrims</a> who are then ferried by helicopter to the border in Hilsa, or Lapcha Pass from where the holy sites in Tibet are visible. The rudimentary hotels and rest houses along the route in Humla have been bursting at the seams for the past month, to the point that some establishments are no longer able to provide patrons basic amenities.&nbsp; Last year, 1.14 million tourists visited Nepal, and the government has projected up to 10% increase in tourist arrivals this year. International tourist arrivals to Nepal have been steadily increasing, especially from the US, Europe, and India. Domestic and regional travel has also increased after the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/lockdown-5-utlzqtvs">Covid lockdowns</a>.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250717120756_e1c8f08e7e26496d2b2394e0be776e147fb46c415347b781ed9e5c64d9c9e505.jpg" data-media-id="editor_5" data-image-id="20250717120756_e1c8f08e7e26496d2b2394e0be776e147fb46c415347b781ed9e5c64d9c9e505" data-rendition-name="original" width="1145" height="668" loading="lazy" alt="Tourist numbers"> </figure>  The tourism industry employs at least 1 million people, trekking injects money directly into the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/not-rising-nepal">rural economy </a>and sustains ancillary sectors like handicrafts and domestic aviation. In the last fiscal year, tourism brought in Rs82.33 billion, according to Nepal Rastra Bank. But the industry has been affected by negative publicity about poor infrastructure, air pollution in Kathmandu, travel safety and news of disasters like the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/rasuwa-flood-likely-a-glof">China-Nepal flood last week</a> that made international headlines. Growing worries about the climate crisis is also affecting youth travel, especially from Europe. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/missing-out-on-nepal-s-tourism-potential">Missing out on Nepal’s tourism potential</a> “The limitations of airport and road infrastructure has hindered the development of the tourism sector,” admits Joshi. “And many are put off by the appalling state of our road network, especially during <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/managing-the-monsoon">the monsoon season</a>.” Nepal is home to 20 protected areas, 10 heritage sites, and eight out of the world’s 10 highest mountains, and despite all the obstacles it is still the perfect destination for the modern social media savvy traveller, who are experience-driven and inclined to look for itineraries that emphasise wellness and cultural immersion.&nbsp; Some hotels around Kathmandu, Pokhara, Jomsom and the Khumbu have strived to adapt to this new tourism landscape, expanding facilities with significant international investment. <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/business/a-thamel-within-thamel">Luxury hotels like Aloft Kathmandu</a> in Thamel were inaugurated just before the pandemic lockdowns, survived the crisis and thrived as it. Says General Manager Vikram Singh (pictured, below): “Our prime location in Thamel enhances the guest experience, especially for those seeking convenience and immersion in the local scene and travellers who want to be in the centre of it all.”  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025071805070_8d29803e8b52bcd4439422e7b7a0bc25aa68ef3d227b9130bd0e079af626677d.jpg" data-media-id="editor_11" data-image-id="2025071805070_8d29803e8b52bcd4439422e7b7a0bc25aa68ef3d227b9130bd0e079af626677d" data-rendition-name="original" width="1066" height="1600" loading="lazy" alt="Aloft GM"> </figure>  <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/what-sustainable-tourism-means-in-practice">Sustainability </a>and environmental consciousness has also become an integral part of the hospitality industry. ISO certifications as well as sustainability initiatives like the Travelife sustainability certification for eco-friendly resorts validate credibility of hotels. Aloft is the first five-star hotel in Nepal to have earned the Waste Smart Certificate, and it has also been awarded the ISO 14001:2015 certification, which is the internationally recognised standard for environmental management systems (EMS). But such investments will not amount to much unless Nepal makes serious efforts to promote itself as a<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/peak-tourism-in-2023-9ukoi8iz?utm="> tourism destination</a>, especially to its two giant neighbours. More importantly, the country needs to increase activities in which tourists can spend the money they want to. “While <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-pushes-mountain-bike-tourism?fbclid=IwAR1MNH0iFGv1vRz5G9uZ4AzUlKxB6nY7JKq0qT6je_FV4_SuxPZqviwKGn0">mountaineering and adventure tourism</a> are extensively promoted, we have fallen short of marketing other elements such as wildlife, pilgrimage and cultural heritage,” says Joshi. “There is a need to diversify promotion to increase income from the tourism sector.” Meanwhile, making Nepal more accessible to international and domestic visitors, must also be a priority. Kathmandu remains the sole aerial gateway despite new airports in Pokhara and Bhairawa. “International airlines have shown interest, and if access and flights are increased these airports can be fully functional,” says Joshi. But Sichuan Airlines has stopped flying to Pokhara, and there does not seem to be much interest from Thai, Vietnamese and Cambodian carriers to fly directly to Lumbini. Says Singh: “There’s tremendous opportunity to strengthen Nepal’s destination marketing by telling richer, more compelling stories that <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/comment/culture-cannot-be-an-afterthought">connect travellers with our culture</a>, nature, and people.”

Tourism needs a new push

This week at the National Population Policy launch Prime Minister K P Oli exhorted Nepalis to get married by age 20 and have three babies by the time they are 30. This was the first indication that the highest office in the land has understood the need to address Nepal’s dramatically <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepals-demographic-window-is-closing">falling birth rate</a>, but Oli’s statement was greeted with ridicule on<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/avoiding-the-quicksand-of-social-media"> social media</a> — especially by women. Most urban young are already grappling with economic pressures and shifting life priorities. Even with a university degree,<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/workers-return-to-jobless-nepal?%2F"> many cannot find jobs</a>, and are taking the first flight out for overseas employment. Having a child is now a fraught decision shaped by income, individual autonomy, and family pressure. The <a href="https://www.unfpa.org/swp2025">UNFPA’s State of the World Population report </a>released last month, highlighted a significant <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/migrating-males-and-population-decline">decline in fertility rates </a>around the world. The global average fertility rate is 2.25 children per woman, and 18% of the reproductive adults said they will not be able to have the number of children they desire. The total fertility rate in Nepal has plummeted to 2.1 births per woman — down from 5 just 30 years ago. This is considered replacement level, meaning the newborns will replace their parents.&nbsp; However, birth rates are not declining as rapidly everywhere. The Tarai in has a total fertility rate of 2.20, and northwestern mountains is still 2.24.&nbsp; There are multiple factors in play, and the report broadly divides them into four categories: health issues, economic concerns, fears about the future, and lack of a supportive partner or their absence. More than half of the respondents said finance, which includes unemployment and increased cost of housing, as well as parenthood, was a barrier to having children. “More and more people prefer one or two children at maximum. Many women also decide to have children at a much later age,” says Kamala Devi Lamichhane of Tribhuvan University. “The opportunity cost is far higher for women.” But there is also a cost for the country, as the National Population Policy notes. At the rate the total fertility rate is falling it will soon be below replacement level — meaning that in the next three decades Nepal will be confronted with an <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/the-future-is-older">ageing population</a>.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250714140740_bac3e5a284b69a77d97b3b99daf2e7fd3019bc48f1a399fb2771381c751d8291.png" data-media-id="editor_6" data-image-id="20250714140740_bac3e5a284b69a77d97b3b99daf2e7fd3019bc48f1a399fb2771381c751d8291" data-rendition-name="original" width="1302" height="501" loading="lazy" alt="Nepalis having fewer babies. Why?"> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250714140740_251115b0a88d4e82be70245c43cb74477f3be18042ef1aa3b904c597d815f13b.png" data-media-id="editor_7" data-image-id="20250714140740_251115b0a88d4e82be70245c43cb74477f3be18042ef1aa3b904c597d815f13b" data-rendition-name="original" width="1125" height="500" loading="lazy" alt="Nepalis having fewer babies. Why?"> </figure>  Besides income, there are also cultural factors at play in women having fewer babies — they are expected to do all the childcare duties, even putting their careers on hold. In general, there is little help from spouses, and with more nuclear families there is less support from relatives. “Women today are well educated, career-oriented, and economically independent, allowing them to delay marriage as well as being conscious about their body and <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/multimedia/nepal-far-from-hitting-contraceptive-target?%2F">reproductive rights</a>,” says Laxmi Tamang of the International Confederation of Midwives (ICM). Also present at the policy launch was demographer Yagya Bahadur Karki, who said that women are more educated and hence, empowered to take their own informed decisions regarding having children.&nbsp; He adds, “But the fertility rates have reached replacement rate, and that stands as a warning for the future.”&nbsp; Fertility rates have fallen in inverse proportion to the rise in female literacy. The regions of Nepal where couples have more babies is where women are less educated. Couples in Madhes and Sudur Paschim provinces, where child marriage, gender-based discrimination, menstrual huts and dowry are still widespread are where the fertility rate is still high.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250717120740_ababfd31ed5ff79ded427e1f1adfff02e6af2384bd541e51dfe05e52fbbccb39.jpg" data-media-id="editor_9" data-image-id="20250717120740_ababfd31ed5ff79ded427e1f1adfff02e6af2384bd541e51dfe05e52fbbccb39" data-rendition-name="original" width="994" height="682" loading="lazy" alt="TFR Map"> </figure>  And because female literacy also has a direct correlation with <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/fatal-discrimination">infant and child mortality</a>, couples in those regions tend to have more babies so some of them survive.&nbsp; But it is Nepal’s urban centres among the educated where the increased choices in reproductive health, including alternative methods of conception like IVF and treatment for infertility, as well as <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/implant-service-providers-take-contraception-to-nepals-poor">contraceptives</a> offer more options for family planning. “There are more choices regarding reproductive health, and there is more awareness as well, which is why people decide carefully on whether or not to bear a child,” says population expert Yogendra Gurung. <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/migrants-returning-from-the-gulf-with-infertility">Migration is another factor</a> adding to the decline in fertility rates. Many young Nepalis of reproductive age leave every day in pursuit of better jobs overseas. Spousal separation means fewer children.&nbsp; “Once away, even if not educated, they realise that child-rearing costs are high, and try to have fewer and even no children in some cases,” Gurung adds. Recent studies have also shown that men returning after their stint in the Gulf and Malaysia, where they are <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/gulf-workers-need-protection-from-heat">exposed to extreme heat </a>for extended periods as well as various chemicals and toxins in their work environment &nbsp;have a range of health problems, including infertility. To increase the birth rate, Nepal will have to reverse its family planning strategy of the past 40 years. Complicating this is that some regions of Nepal will need measures to control the birth rate, while urban areas will need a strategy to help parents have more babies. One way to help families have more children is to develop more <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/future-proofing-nepal-s-population-strategy?s=04&amp;fbclid=IwY2xjawFQf-NleHRuA2FlbQIxMQABHRxSwwGPfm7_2cBhDVAowPxEmFXP0Os-KRs1DXqIW_84wDhciExtZuNi1g_aem_jzRqN2cEVAppfwr5qedxRg">family-friendly policies</a> that favour women and youth as the Nordic countries, which also have falling birth rates, have done. They have introduced flexible parental leaves for both parents, including financial and health incentives. China, also concerned about its declining birth rate and an ageing population, now has a three-child policy as well as tax deductions, expanded childcare services, and leave policies to encourage couples to have more children. “We must work towards childbirth and childcare policies and plans that are suitable for Nepal, so that couples planning for children do not have to think twice about it because of finances or other reasons,” adds Gurung. Tamang of the International Confederation of Midwives says a gender transformative approach is needed to address the issues of the gender gap which is adding to the decline in childbirth. Husbands need to play a more important role in child-rearing. Instead of increasing fertility for the sake of it, the objective should be to assist young people to start the families they desire, at a point and time of their choice. Respect for everyone’s rights and dignity lays a foundation for a more balanced demographic trend. Lamichhane sums it up: “If fertility rates are to be sustained, it requires changes in the gender roles and behaviour, keeping the youth’s aspirations in mind.”

Nepalis are having fewer babies. Why?

Local residents of Mustang, including a sitting MP and several politicians, submitted a petition to Prime Minister KP Oli in Kathmandu this week urging the government to lift the region’s ‘restricted’ status. This is not the first time such a demand has been raised, and as infrastructure the region’s accessibility improved over the years, calls to remove the long-standing restriction have grown louder.&nbsp; Upper Mustang is no longer weeks away <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/postcards-from-kathmandu">from Kathmandu.</a> Nearly 85% of the road from Beni to Kagbeni has been blacktopped, and one can drive from Kathmandu to Lo Manthang with an overnight stop in Pokhara. Between April 2024 and April 2025, Lower Mustang received 144,745 international tourists, a near 50% increase compared to the previous year. Most of these were <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/borderlines/nepal-india-trans-boundary-bonds">Indian pilgrims </a>travelling to Muktinath. <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/comings-and-goings-in-mustang">Mustang</a> is also gaining popularity among Nepali visitors, with 700,000 visiting the region in 2024. A hotel operator in Kagbeni estimated that about 20% of Nepali visitors to Muktinath also travel to Korala, the trade and transit checkpoint on the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/latest/north-of-the-border">China border</a>. That would mean that nearly 100,000 domestic tourists visit Upper Mustang annually. In stark contrast, international tourist numbers to Upper Mustang (north of Kagbeni) have remained stagnant, hovering around 4,000 visitors per year. The primary reason is the continued enforcement of the region’s restricted status. Foreign visitors must pay a steep permit fee: a minimum of $500 for 10 days, with an additional $50 per day thereafter. Tourism some entrepreneurs, politicians, and residents want these fees to be abolished so Upper Mustang can attract a broader range of international travellers. The success of Lower Mustang, where relaxed restrictions have led to a<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/boom-time-in-central-tarai"> tourism boom</a>, is often cited as proof of what lifting restrictions could achieve. Upper Mustang is not the only region in Nepal with a restricted status. Several northern areas prefixed with ‘Upper’ (Upper Manaslu, Upper Dolpo, Upper Kanchenjunga, and Upper Arun) also need similar permits and fees. Although no clear official explanation exists, these areas were primarily restricted due to historical inaccessibility, ecological and cultural fragility and security concerns. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/upper-mustang-opposes-prohibited-areas">Call to scrap Upper Mustang tourist fee</a> In the 1960s and 1970s, these remote regions served as shelters for Khampa guerrilla fighters who launched cross border ambushes on the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-last-days-of-the-khampa">Chinese military </a>across the border.&nbsp; Though the Khampa have long gone, security concerns rooted in that era seem to persist. The government in Kathmandu is seemingly unaware of the changed political and security landscape. If concerns do remain, they are not made public. One of the main reasons for maintaining the restricted designation is to limit visitor numbers. But with <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/the-road-out-of-nepal">improved road access and services</a>, as Upper Mustang has seen, this justification no longer holds. When Upper Mustang first opened to international tourists in 1992, it had no formal lodges or hotels, and it took four to five days of trekking from Jomsom to Lo Manthang.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250716120744_4e4405cf10e6f127f90a1cd40feda0b9d8d69efd13093a2563530ca31489ba9f.jpg" data-media-id="editor_8" data-image-id="20250716120744_4e4405cf10e6f127f90a1cd40feda0b9d8d69efd13093a2563530ca31489ba9f" data-rendition-name="original" width="2000" height="509" loading="lazy" alt="Lift restrictions on Upper Mustang"> <figcaption>Photo: DINESH SHRESTHA</figcaption> </figure>  Without a nechyang (a household with traditional friendship), it was difficult to find a place to stay or get a proper meal. Only a few elite households offered accommodation. Today, there are now more than 80 lodges and hotels above Kagbeni, spread across nearly every village. Several upmarket hotels now struggle to stay afloat during the off-season, relying on low-spending domestic visitors to survive. Lo Manthang, once a remote destination, is now just a few hours’ drive from Jomsom, easily reachable by lunchtime for early starters. Once the remaining road sections are blacktopped, travel time will be further reduced. Yet, the government still charges a flat $500 fee for a 10-day permit based on outdated &nbsp;assumptions from a bygone era. There has been no serious review of the permit structure to align with current realities, nor any response to local aspirations to attract more international tourists and <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/peak-tourism-in-2023-9ukoi8iz">harness tourism for economic development</a>. Concerns about over tourism are valid. There is a risk that increasing visitor numbers could erode Upper Mustang’s <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/a-million-mantras-in-mustang">cultural heritage</a>, social fabric, and fragile natural environment, precisely the features that make it special. However, the region’s 33 years of tourism experience have been largely positive.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250716120744_5c7e5e05097cd0e5a1027b51c7e3db3be0bd67e0f7cbaea6d2c447b1dacafc8a.jpg" data-media-id="editor_11" data-image-id="20250716120744_5c7e5e05097cd0e5a1027b51c7e3db3be0bd67e0f7cbaea6d2c447b1dacafc8a" data-rendition-name="original" width="1400" height="1050" loading="lazy" alt="Lift restrictions on Upper Mustang"> <figcaption>Photo: MUKESH POKHREL / NT ARCHIVE</figcaption> </figure>  Tourism has contributed significantly to the restoration and <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-history-of-heritage?%2F">preservation of religious and historical sites</a> like the Thubchen and Jampa monasteries in Lo Manthang, the ongoing conversion of the old palace in Ghami into a premium hotel, and the rehabilitation of many monasteries and chortens.&nbsp; These efforts, supported by international donors and heritage experts, demonstrate that tourism—when well managed—can be a powerful driver of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/shrinking-tourism-s-ecological-footprint">conservation</a>. The high permit fees have been somewhat effective in limiting international visitors, but they have no influence on the growing number of domestic tourists, particularly during the Dasain and Tihar holidays. The most pressing need now is for all levels of government—federal, provincial, and local—to<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/why-invest-in-nepal"> invest in </a>managing tourist flows and maintaining tourist sites. These efforts are essential not only to enhance visitor experience but also to build long-term resilience and sustainability for the destination. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/greening-nepal-s-tourism">Greening Nepal’s tourism</a>, Hanna Wells Visitor numbers are central to any tourism development strategy that aims to balance economic, social, and environmental goals. Clinging to obsolete policies and concerns to justify Upper Mustang’s restricted status is not only unfair, it also suggests an undemocratic and discriminatory attitude toward a remote district.&nbsp; Shailendra Thakali, PhD, is from Jomsom and is a freelance consultant on protected areas, tourism, conservation, and sustainable livelihoods.

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