<figure><img width="1500" height="844" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110111152/636cd7fc9c7e80680e092e19jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>A farmer feeds a buffalo in Banke's Kamdi village. Buffalo milk is the sole income source for farmers in the village.</figcaption></figure>One year after Nepal went into a Covid-19 nationwide lockdown, there has been enormous economic fallout. While most reports have focussed on the impact on Nepal’s GDP growth rate, companies that have gone bankrupt and Nepal’s macro-economy, largely forgotten are stories of individual hardship.Despite the breakthrough vaccine development in the past year, the pandemic continues to impact millions of Nepalis. Those with means changed their professions, others are surviving on loans. But the pandemic-induced economic fallout means half of Nepali households are at risk of falling back into poverty.This week, the Himalmedia video magazine Saglo Samaj interviewed farmers, tourist guides, hotel operators and taxi drivers most affected by the crisis.No country for farmersBuffalo milk is the only source of income for farmers in Kamdi village of Banke. But for six months during the pandemic, they could not sell their milk, and even now do not get a fair price. Farmers take the rest of their milk to the Dairy Development Corporation's collection point, but payment is slow. Local dairies also buy some to make dairy products but with the tourism sector which consumes most of these products down, milk sales have been all-time low.“We sell some milk but the price is not good. Some days you get money, other times you don’t. We live in misery,” says dairy farmer Ramnaresh Yadav.Tulsiram Yadav has 13 buffaloes and used to sell 20 litres of milk a day. “This is what us illiterate people do, raise buffaloes, sell milk, there is no other occupation,” he says. “Milk did not sell well this winter, sometimes even the dairy doesn’t buy, and we have no income.” Guiding lifeUttara Manandhar has been a tourist guide, but lost her job after tourists stopped coming last year. “I know of many guides who changed their profession due to the crisis. I got into teaching myself. But we still have an attachment to the tourism sector and find it hard to adapt to other fields,” she says.She says she will get back to being a guide once tourists return. “In the past year  I have been reading and writing a lot. I’m ready for tourists to come back so that I can share my knowledge with them,” Manandhar adds. <figure><img width="1500" height="844" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110111152/636cd7ff9c7e80680e092e1ajpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Tourist guides like Uttara Manandhar have had to switch professions after losing their jobs to the pandemic.</figcaption></figure>Shankar Bhattarai had been a tourist guide for 11 years, and also turned to teaching after the tourism sector collapsed. “Even if I am in a classroom, I dream of travelling to the mountains,” says Bhattarai. “The hardest part is to adjust to a new job.” He says tourist guides could have been integrated into the Department of Archaeology to help in excavation work, adding: “We are ready to transfer our knowledge. Don’t leave us in this limbo.” <figure><img width="1500" height="844" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110111152/636cd8029c7e80680e092e1bjpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Tourist guide Shankar Bhattarai turned to teaching after tourism came to a standstill.</figcaption></figure>End of hospitality The lockdown devastated the tourism industry, with least 1 million people losing their jobs. Luxury hotels in Kathmandu and Pokhara laid off hundreds of workers."We aren't asking the hotels for 100% salary. We just want simple meals and enough money to pay school fees of our children," says Kamal Ghimire of the Nepal Independent Hotel, Casino and Restaurant Workers' Union. The Airport Hotel in Kathmandu is a 3-star property with 62 rooms. Because of its location outside the gate of the airport, it used to consistently have 70% occupancy. The past year was a washout, and now barely 7% of the rooms are occupied.“The hotel used to be very crowded and even with our 100 staff, we used to hire additional workers to manage all the parties, seminars and conferences,” says owner Binayak Shah. “Today, we are working with about 10 employees and yet we are finding it difficult to pay wages or the electricity bill.”He says the pandemic has been worse than the Maoist insurgency, adding: “It is much more profitable to run a school or a hospital.”    <img width="640" height="323" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110111152/636cd8059c7e80680e092e1cjpeg.jpg" alt="">No alternative to migration Ganesh Tamang worked abroad for six months and with his Rs500,000 savings bought a taxi. Unable to keep up with loan repayment, the bank took possession of the vehicle. “I still get up at five in the morning but instead of driving, I go to feed and milk my buffaloes,” says Tamang, who is now raising livestock and poultry to make a living.  <figure><img width="1500" height="844" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110111152/636cd8089c7e80680e092e1djpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Taxi operator Sagar Bohora has no choice but to go abroad after earning almost no income in the past year.</figcaption></figure>Sagar Bohora also used to ply a taxi in Kathmandu for 16 hours a day, preferring to work in Nepal rather than toil in a foreign land. But with income nearly zero for the past year, he struggles to pay the medical bills of his elderly mother and his children’s education.  “My heart is against it, but I have no alternative but to go abroad,” he says. “I can’t sleep at night thinking about my piling debts.”Based on Episode 10 of Saglo Samaj, a tv magazine program produced by Himalmedia which is broadcast every Monday at 8:30 pm on Dish Home Channel 130.

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Covid’s collateral damage

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109101120/636b711e9c7e80680e0600b4jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1400" height="902"/><figcaption>Nepal's great income divide. Photo: BIKRAM RAI</figcaption></figure>Anyone who visits Nepal seeking <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/invest-in-investment/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">investment opportunities</a> will look at two indicators: the first is the exchange rate of the Nepali rupee against major currencies, and the second is the state of the toilet in <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/kathmandu-airport-is-nepal-in-a-microcosm/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the airport</a> arrival hall.When asked a simple question such as, “How far is Bhaktapur from Thamel?” The answer in kilometers may be easy but it is nearly impossible to answer in units of time. The answer therefore will be, “It depends”. What does it depend on? Well that also depends.In a country where we cannot tell anyone how long it will take to get to the next city, we have the world’s most complex and sophisticated statistics to indicate <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepals-great-income-divide/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">where Nepal stands</a> on anything and everything compared to the rest of the world.Does this country really need a Human Development Index, a Doing Business Index, a <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/Nepal-%20Multidimensional-Poverty-Index,4115" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Multi-dimensional Poverty Index</a> and many others? How do you monitor and verify so many <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-rises-in-prosperity-index/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">indicators</a>?It is quite obvious that the number of tigers in Chitwan is an indicator for the deer population there, and the grazing area and water available to the deer. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/how-many-tigers-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The tiger count</a> would serve as a proxy indicator for the state of the environment.The system of conducting a national census was first carried out in the United States in 1790. In Nepal, the first census was conducted in 1911 during the reign of Prime Minister Chandra Shamsher. We are now preparing for the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-in-the-2020s/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">National Census 2021</a>, which will provide many indicators that will then hopefully be used to set priorities and allocate our scarce financial resources.The reason we cannot say how long it will take to get to Bhaktapur is because of the huge traffic jam at Koteshwor. Is the number of two- and four-wheel vehicles that converge at this junction and many others in the valley an indicator of the failure of seventy years of rural <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/how-will-nepal-develop-in-the-next-decade/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">development</a>?Why are people not staying in the villages where the government has been pumping annual budgets for as long as we know?It is very unpopular to tell development experts that rural Nepal does not need another school building because the parents have moved their children to the cities or to India or further afield. Pregnant women move to the nearest urban area with its good maternity health facilities when they are six months into their pregnancies.Two and half billion people will need old-age care globally by 2030 and this indicates that nursing is a good choice of profession. The sizes of different hoarding boards at major street junctions indicate which countries top the list of places to which young Nepalis are aspiring to move. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/why-nepalis-are-flocking-to-okinawa/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Japan</a> and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/dead-end-of-the-korean-dream/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Korea</a> seem to be most popular, and yet these billboards are small compared to the English boarding school signs found all over Nepal.The ruling parties of Nepal have a vision and a mission -- prosperous Nepal, happy Nepalis. Can we agree on three indicators for each and hold politicians accountable to them? And then make sure that each cabinet and parliament session always begins by re-visiting these six indicators and reporting to the citizens on where we stand on each?A problem with statistics is that data can be bent every which way. For example, does the high growth we have seen in the domestic airline business indicate Nepalis are getting rich or that <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepals-deadly-roads-take-their-toll/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">road travel is risky</a>?Does the growing number of private hospitals indicate wealth or that people are becoming sick? Does the increased forest cover in Nepal indicate that people have internalised conservation or that <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/look-whats-cooking-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">imported LPG</a> and cement have made it redundant to collect firewood and building materials?While GDP per capita is the most popular indicator we use, we know few report their true income. Should income be replaced by the prices of the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/new-news/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">phones we carry</a> or the size of the TV owned or <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepals-electric-transport-future-is-here/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">vehicle driven</a>?Indicators are a good management tool, but we often do not like to be held accountable to them. There are too many variables that affect our work and hence the goal post keeps changing. But if we agree that the toilet at the airport is a critical indicator to inspire potential investors, we need to make it functional and impressive.Anil Chitrakar is President of Siddharthinc

Anil Chitrakar

Counting what counts in Nepal

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109101116/636b703c9c7e80680e060069jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1001"/><figcaption>Look east : Sunrise near Phaplu in Solu Khumbu after recent snowfall. Photo : MANISH PAUDEL</figcaption></figure>Ever since Time magazine printed a story in 1992 titled ‘Goodbye Shangrila’, Nepal’s travel trade and government have tried to clean up the country’s international image.Visitor arrivals plummeted during the conflict years, and even after the ceasefire there was negative publicity about the instability, strikes and shutdowns. The earthquake and the Blockade also <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/tourism-is-down-but-not-out-in-nepal,2262" target="_blank" rel="noopener">hit tourism hard</a>.But Nepal is such <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/guest-editorial/a-solid-tourism-brand-for-nepal,845" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a solid brand</a>, and such a unique tourism product, that visitor numbers are picking up again. Finance Minister Yubaraj Khatiwada is credited with picking <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/bringing-in-two-miilion-tourists,3551" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the target of 2 million</a> as a way to revive income from tourism to help balance Nepal’s growing trade deficit.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=38900&amp;preview_nonce=76ffe3ead4&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Nepal Brand,</a> EditorialIn the 1980s, tourism made up 22% of Nepal’s GDP. It now contributes only 4%, not necessarily because tourism is down, but because other sectors like remittances and trade have grown. Under Tourism Minister Rabindra Adhikari, 2020 was chosen to promote Nepal internationally so that we could reach the magic 2 million figure.But Adhikari was <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/the-last-journey/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">killed in a helicopter crash last year</a>, and travel trade executives say promotion activities have not been effective enough. President Bidya Devi Bhandari inaugurated <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/make-sure-you-visit-nepal-in-2020/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Visit Nepal Year 2020</a> at Kathmandu’s main stadium on 1 January with fireworks and a flypast of military helicopters. But critics said the money would have been better spent on promotion abroad.Read also:<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/chinese-tourist-influx-to-nepal-in-2020/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Chinese tourist influx to Nepal in 2020</a>, Josie Wang<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/make-sure-you-visit-nepal-in-2020/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Make sure you visit Nepal in 2020</a>, Anil ChitrakarInstead of promoting Nepal within Nepal, the government should have cleaned up Nepal. The country’s image has suffered lately because of social media posts by visitors shocked by Kathmandu’s squalour and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/air-pollution-is-more-dangerous-than-smoking/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">pollution</a>.<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/unusual-appointment-extraordinary-tasks/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tourism Minister Yogesh Bhattarai</a> has been ridiculed in social media for visiting Sydney this week, in the middle of a bushfire emergency, to promote Nepal. The government has also run into flak for a daft proposal to mandate very Nepali worker flying out to wear Visit Nepal t-shirts and caps.Bhattarai admits that airports need to be upgraded and service improved. But he adds: “There have been improvements at <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/kathmandu-airport-is-nepal-in-a-microcosm/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kathmandu Airport</a>, we are taking steps to make the travel experience more pleasant.”Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/pokhara-nepals-new-aviation-gateway/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Pokhara: Nepal's new aviation gateway</a>, Kunda DixitThe travel industry says the emphasis should be on making a Nepal trip as convenient as possible for visitors by streamlining the airport, its tedious visa-on-arrival process, and sprucing up the country’s crumbling infrastructure. There should also be a moratorium on <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/new-high-way-to-dolpo/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">excavators digging roads over trekking trails</a>. The other deterrent is that Nepal is an expensive place to travel to because the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/high-cost-lays-aviation-low-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">price of aviation fuel here is double</a> that in other airports in the region.Says hotelier Yogendra Shakya: “Nepal is ideally placed to tap the vast tourism potential from India, China and Southeast Asia, and promotion should focus there first.”

Long road back to Shangrila

<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109101116/636b703f9c7e80680e06006ajpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1050" height="570"/>On new year’s day, President Bidya Devi Bhandari inaugurated <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/make-sure-you-visit-nepal-in-2020/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Visit Nepal Year 2020</a>, aimed at attracting <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/bringing-in-two-miilion-tourists,3551" target="_blank" rel="noopener">2 million tourists</a> this year, at a lavish show in Kathmandu’s main stadium with fireworks and a flypast of military helicopters.There was only one thing wrong with the event: it was in Kathmandu and not in the countries from which it is <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/chinese-tourist-influx-to-nepal-in-2020/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">trying to attract visitors</a>. The money would have been better spent on targeted promotion in selected countries.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=38885&amp;preview_nonce=4d8ff09bce&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Long road back to Shangrila</a>, Mukesh PokhrelIt might have been an even better idea to spend the money <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/kathmandu-airport-is-nepal-in-a-microcosm/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">sprucing up Kathmandu airport</a>, fixing the roads, and cleaning up a once-beautiful Valley that has become an ulcer — before bothering to convince visitors to come.All seven provinces inaugurated the campaign with much fanfare. The parades were performed by Nepalis and the spectators were Nepalis. How does that help bring more tourists to Nepal?Well-intentioned it may be, but the entire Visit Nepal campaign has been mediocre and sloppy every step of the way — planned and executed by people without imagination or knowledge about the tourism industry.Read also:<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/chinese-tourist-influx-to-nepal-in-2020/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Chinese tourist influx to Nepal in 2020</a>, Josie Wang<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/make-sure-you-visit-nepal-in-2020/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Make sure visit Nepal in 2020</a>, Anil ChitrakarThe travel industry is generally unenthusiastic, and it is understandable why:<ul><li>There has been insufficient preparation in the countries we should have prioritised for promotion</li> <li>Publicity and marketing should have started at least two years ago, not on January 1.</li> <li>The Ministry of Tourism has shown utter fecklessness by asking ambassadors to send senior ministers for the 1 January event in Kathmandu. (Why would anyone spoil a new year’s holiday and travel all the way at such short notice?)</li> <li><a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/unusual-appointment-extraordinary-tasks/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Minister of Tourism Yogesh Bhattarai</a> travelled to Australia to launch the campaign in the middle of a national fire emergency.</li> <li>Bhattarai then announced that Nepali workers travelling abroad would mandatorily have to wear Visit Nepal caps and t-shirts. Everyone ignored this edict.</li> <li>Nepal Tourism Board lost its chief at the start of VNY 2020.</li> <li>There should be a revenue target, not a target of 2 million visitors.</li> <li>The <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/Air-jam,4196" target="_blank" rel="noopener">only aerial gateway to Nepal is a disgrace</a>. It seems purpose-built for maximum inconvenience, with an incomprehensible visa-on-arrival process and an excruciating queue at the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/metal-free-ass/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">‘metal free’ x-ray</a>.</li> <li>Nepal sells itself for cheap, but it is an expensive destination to get to mainly because of the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/high-cost-lays-aviation-low-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">high cost of aviation fuel</a> which airlines are compelled to pass on to passengers.</li></ul>The miracle is that despite everything we do to dissuade them, visitors still come to Nepal. The country has such high brand equity that even though we have done everything to wreck it with all the squalour and decrepitude in Kathmandu and our Byzantine bureaucracy, tourists still come.We have even destroyed the countryside with <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/new-high-way-to-dolpo/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">haphazard road-construction along popular trekking routes</a> —  treacherous passages that even the bravest fear to tread.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/pokhara-nepals-new-aviation-gateway/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Pokhara: Nepal's new aviation gateway</a>, Kunda DixitInstead of promoting Nepal within Nepal, the government should mark Visit Nepal 2020 by cleaning up Nepal in 2020. The trekking trails need to be preserved and cleared of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/from-the-nepali-press/a-plastic-republic/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">plastic garbage</a>, it has to be convenient and safe to get to the hinterland, and visitors should be encouraged to spend their money where it is needed the most — in the villages through which they hike.There is the idea that only Kathmandu, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/pokhara-nepals-new-aviation-gateway/">Pokhara</a>, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/u-thant-kenzo-tange-and-the-buddhas-birthplace/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Lumbini</a> and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/how-many-tigers-in-nepal/">Chitwan</a> are Nepal’s tourist attractions. There is  fundamental ignorance among policymakers about what a tourist is looking for in Nepal — they do not come here to be extorted every step of the way with two-tier pricing for tickets for museums to domestic airlines.In the past, the Maoist insurgency, a decade of political instability with frequent shutdowns (hotel vans still carry ‘Tourist Only’ on windshields as a relic from that era), the earthquake and the Blockade could have been blamed for <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/tourism-is-down-but-not-out-in-nepal,2262" target="_blank" rel="noopener">low visitor numbers</a>. We have no more excuses. Nepal now is a vibrant democracy with a strong government.Publicity within the country for Visit Nepal 2020 must be channeled to making people aware about cleanliness, maintaining infrastructure, reducing bureaucratic red tape, and streamlining procedures to make visitors’ stay as convenient as possible by treating them really as gods, not as wallets.Only then will tourism once again be a strong pillar of the economy. The industry that once contributed 22% to the national GDP now contributes only 4%. Tourism income can help Nepal redress it growing trade gap.Nepal’s location is ideal for tourism. We need to expand the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/keeping-nepal-airlines-airworthy/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">country’s national airline</a>, spread its network and rebuild the Nepal brand.<h2>10 years ago this week</h2>The Nepali Times edition of <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/issue/484" target="_blank" rel="noopener">#484</a> from 8-14 January 2010 ten years ago was full of revelation of a fallout between Pushpa Kamal Dahal and Baburam Bhattarai. Even the Ass made fun of it. But this paragraph from Prashant Jha’s column, Plain Speaking said it all:Nepal may still have been stuck in a bloody conflict but for Dr Baburam Bhattarai and his emphasis on democratic republicanism. The ongoing attempts to marginalise him within the Maoists reveal much about the balance of power and how counterproductive it could be for the peace and constitution-writing process.By snubbing Bhattarai and his ‘line’ again - as Prachanda did by depriving him of the deputy prime ministership in August 2008 and incorporating Kiran’s views at Kharipati two months later - the Maoists run the risk of undermining their achievements, repeating the mistakes of their 20th century communist counterparts, and failing.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109101116/636b70429c7e80680e06006bjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="324" height="500">...

THE NEPAL BRAND

<figure><img width="800" height="1132" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108101132/636a22d09c7e80680e0417abjpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Cartoon: BHANU BHATTARAI</figcaption></figure>There are snide remarks about K P Oli, prime minister and co-chair of the Nepal Communist Party, heading off next week to the World Economic Forum in Davos. What is a communist leader doing in a capitalist winter wonderland?But Chinese President Xi Jiping who is also General Secretary of the Communist Party of China, has attended Davos as well. And just as China is Communist only in name, Nepal’s current state model is half-jokingly called ‘crony Communism’.China will soon be the world’s largest economy, and is stepping in globally to fill the military, geopolitical and economic gap left by American disengagement. Nepal, on the other hand, is struggling with poor governance and economic stagnation despite having a government with vast powers. And while China is a one-party state, Nepal’s united Communists were duly elected in a landslide in 2017.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/to-davos-with-hammer-and-sickle/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">To Davos with hammer and sickle</a>, Ramesh KumarOli has said his main agenda in Davos is to send a signal that Nepal has put conflict and instability behind it, and is open for business. The Communist leader of one of Asia’s poorest countries is going to be speaking in panels on ‘South Asian Security’ and on ‘Beyond GDP’, and hobnobbing with the likes of Vietnamese Prime Minister Nguyen Xuân Phúc. While no two countries are the same, and what works in one does not always serve as a model for another, if Oli did only one thing in Davos, it should be to take a few pointers from Vietnam on how it achieved record growth in Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) which hit $30 billion last year.Nepal wants to be a <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/guest-editorial/muddy-road-middle-income,928" target="_blank" rel="noopener">medium-income country</a> in the next decade, and for that it needs foreign capital. Even to achieve the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals by 2030, it is estimated that the country needs to spend Rs18 billion a year. But FDI in Nepal has dipped in the past three years to a record low of only Rs35 billion, and represents less than 1% of the GDP. As the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepalis-in-tax-havens-swiss-banks-money-laundering/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ICIJ and CIJ Nepal joint investigation</a> released this week proves: the impunity and lack of transparency have got so bad that even the FDI Nepal receives is largely laundered ill-gotten wealth. The take-home message from the report is that it is not just the government that is dirty, so is the private sector. In many cases they are in cahoots to rob the people. There is nothing his Vietnamese and Chinese comrades can teach Prime Minister Oli in Davos about how to boost investment that he does not already know. It is not for the lack of laws that foreign investors are skittish. Despite the field being wide open in Nepal for investors who want to leverage the country’s  proximity to the world’s two largest markets in India and China, Nepal is better known as a kleptocracy than a democracy. In an interview with this paper the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-can-create-a-business-friendly-environment/">South Korean ambassador</a> was diplomatic when he said Nepal needed a better business climate to attract investors.The red tape in repatriating profits takes years, delayed by demands for kickbacks. Foreign contractors involved in large projects like Melamchi or Kathmandu Airport have been harassed by corrupt officials who brazenly ask for their cut. Ride-hailing startups like Tootle are targetted by transport cartels with political protection. Licenses for hydropower projects are hoarded by companies in which bureaucrats are shadow partners. Rules are made and changed overnight just so that foreign companies can be shaken down. In this setting, only investors who are unscrupulous themselves, or contractors whose intent is to never complete a project, will venture into Nepal.Prime Minister Oli has said he will be show-casing Nepal’s impressive achievements of the past decades in improving its human development status, in resolving conflict, promulgating a federal constitution and holding elections to three levels of government. He will be underlining that from the strategic, trade and investment point of view Nepal is ideally located for investors. His underlying message will be: forget that we are a Communist government with a supposedly socialist ideology, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/calendar-of-economic-change/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">your investment will be safe here</a>. With a strong government at the centre, and decision-making that is decentralising under the new federal structure, Oli’s pitch to the global business community will be that the early bird will get the worm.But that is going to be a hard-sell. Investors will have seen the Ease of Doing Business rankings which project an iffy investment climate in Nepal.The government is holding another Investment Summit end-March, but at current levels of extortion, extraction and corruption, and with much better investment contexts in other Asian countries, there is no option but to clean up our own internal act. All the schmoozing in Davos or speechifying at investment summits are not going to help.  <h2>10 years ago this week</h2> The <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/issue/434" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nepali Times #434</a> edition from ten years ago on 16 January 2008 talked about Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal jetting off to Finland and Norway to talk about Nordic aid and investment in Nepal. Exactly a decade later, Prime Minister Oli is going to Davos next week to talk about aid and investment and to spread the message that Nepal is open for business. It looks like nothing has changed since we wrote this <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=15568#.XEQKsFUzaUk" target="_blank" rel="noopener">editorial</a> in 2008:‘Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal is jetting off again, this time to Norway and Finland. We can’t see the purpose of this visit at this time, unless with all the crises at home he wants a break. Whoever has been advising the prime minister of late has given him another bad piece of advice: you don’t leave your country when there is an energy emergency, when the peace process is stuck, there is a breakdown in law and order and a mutiny is brewing within your own party.The ostensible reason for the visit: to inspect hydropower plants just doesn’t hold water.’<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/issue/434"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108101132/636a22d29c7e80680e0417acjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="507" height="814"></a>

CRONY COMMUNISM

Nepal is ranked highest among South Asian countries in the GDP growth with 7.5% in FY2017, showing steep recovery after the earthquake and Blockade. The country must create 240,000 jobs a year to maintain its employment rate which is expected to slow down to 4.6% in 2018, according to South Asia Economic Focus report by World Bank. However, growth in FY2018 will be 4.6% according to the Bank’s twice-yearly Nepal Development Update. The main challenge will be managing fiscal and current account deficits.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110710114/6368cabd9c7e80680e02f32fjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="472" height="337"/><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110710114/6368cabf9c7e80680e02f330jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="325" height="331">Similarly, the World Economic Outlook of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) shows Nepal’s monthly remittance rose to an all-time high of $680 million in March 2018. The reason is said to be an increase in bank deposits to almost 16%. However inflation rate also rose to the 6% in the same period, the IMF said.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110710114/6368cac09c7e80680e02f331jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="491" height="335">

Growing GDP and remittance

India and Pakistan are twins separated at birth. Tensions between them have been at a hair trigger ever since independence and has erupted into full scale conflict at least four times in the past 80 years.
The 22 April terrorist attack in Kashmir that killed 25 Indian tourists and a Nepali citizen, threatens to escalate tension between the two nuclear-armed nations. India has squarely blamed Pakistan for the attacks, and Prime Minister Narendra Modi has given his military “operational freedom” to respond. Pakistan has said it has credible intelligence of an Indian military strike and its officials have promised a “full spectrum” response — a code for a <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/thinking-the-thinkable">nuclear retaliation</a>.
For Nepal, the killing of its national in the Pahalgam attack comes as another stark reminder that in conflicts from Afghanistan to Iraq, from <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/how-to-agree-an-armistice-in-ukraine">Ukraine</a> to Israel, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/10-nepalis-from-one-town-fighting-in-ukraine">Nepalis are getting caught in the crossfire</a>. The last time full-scale fighting broke out between <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/peacemongers-at-india-pakistan-border">India and Pakistan</a> on Kargil in 1999, at least 22<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/india-s-trial-by-fire-for-soldiers-from-nepal?%27%5C%22="> Nepalis fighting for the Indian Army</a> were killed in action.
Three of Nepal’s immediate neighbours (China, India, Pakistan) have nuclear weapons, and they do not have good relations. With China supplying weapons, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/war-and-warming">missile technology</a> and other support to Pakistan, this triangular friction could set off a regional conflagration.&nbsp;
<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-022-00573-0" target="_blank">Research at Rutgers University</a> has calculated that even a week-long tactical nuclear exchange between India and Pakistan would throw up so much smoke and debris into the atmosphere that it would block out the sun for years, and lead to a collapse of the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/grow-nourish-sustain-together-world-food-day">global food system</a>. This does not take into account the radioactive fallout that prevailing winds would blow up to <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/lives-on-the-line-in-the-himalaya">the Himalaya</a>, contaminating glaciers that are the sources of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/saving-what-is-left-of-himalayan-rivers">Asia’s main rivers</a>.
The impact of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/climate-breakdown-linked-to-thame-flood">climate breakdown </a>on High Asia was already ringing alarm bells about its <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/himalayan-icecap-melting-faster-than-thought">shrinking ice cap</a> reducing the dry season flow of water downstream. Water was going to be the next strategic commodity, geopolitical experts warned, and the next wars in Asia would be over water.
That water war is already happening. India retaliated to the Kashmir attack by suspending the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/24/world/asia/india-pakistan-indus-waters-treaty.html" target="_blank">Indus Waters Treaty</a> of 1960 mediated by the World Bank that has withstood at least three wars between India and Pakistan. The treaty gives India control over the three eastern tributaries of the Indus (<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beas_River" target="_blank">Beas</a>, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ravi_River" target="_blank">Ravi</a> and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sutlej" target="_blank">Sutlej</a>), while Pakistan got water from the Indus and two of its western tributaries (<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indus_River" target="_blank">Indus</a>, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chenab_River" target="_blank">Chenab</a> and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jhelum_River" target="_blank">Jhelum</a>.
Pakistan was assured of 70% of the annual flow, and India could use a reasonable amount of water for<a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=15231"> irrigation and hydropower</a>. &nbsp;Within days of its threat, India stopped water flowing down to Pakistan from the Chenab river and is reportedly preparing to do the same on the Jhelum.
The sabre-rattling has reached a crescendo. Besides threats and counter-threats there are also symbolic drills, with the Indian Air Force practicing landing on an expressway in Uttar Pradesh by its Rafale, Su-30 and Jaguar fighter jets to demonstrate ‘operational readiness’. In response Pakistan test-fired its Abdali ballistic missile that can carry a nuclear warhead and has a range of 450km.&nbsp;
The danger is that with ultra-nationalist rhetoric and the beating the war drums by both sides, India’s government and Pakistan’s military may have to ‘do something’ to appease domestic public opinion. But any tactical strike, an artillery exchange, or territorial incursion could quickly escalate out of control.
Expecting an Indian retaliation for the Pahalgam killings, Pakistan is using<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/interfaith-collaboration-for-nuclear-disarmament"> nuclear deterrence </a>and warning of “catastrophic consequences”. The two neighbours came close to a nuclear exchange in 2019 after an attack on the Indian military in Kashmir, and prompt international intervention led by the United States cooled tensions.&nbsp;
This time, the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/trump-shock-wave-hits-nepal">Trump administration</a> is too distracted and not as engaged. Pakistan has denied it was responsible for the terrorist attack and called on Washington to stop a possible Indian retaliation. India and Pakistan have stopped overflights by each other’s airlines, and some international carriers have even stopped flying over Pakistan fearing an air war.
Washington, Beijing, the UN and the EU have all urged restraint. Iran, which has good relations with both India and Pakistan has sent its foreign minister to urge both countries not to go into a tit-for-tat war. Iran has its own nuclear flashpoint to worry about with tensions in Israel, &nbsp;Yemen and Syria.
India and Pakistan both share similar problems of joblessness, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/why-nepal-s-poverty-rate-is-stuck">poverty </a>and <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/climate-change-new-threat-to-nepal-s-rhinos">environmental threats</a>. Neither side needs the threat of a senseless war, and we in the neighbourhood do not need it either.&nbsp;
Kunda Dixit
This Editorial is brought to you by <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/" target="_blank">Nepali Times</a>, in collaboration with <a href="https://inpsjapan.com/en/" target="_blank">INPS Japan</a> and <a href="https://sgi-peace.org/" target="_blank">Soka Gakkai International</a>, in consultative status with UN ECOSOC.

Nukes in the neighbourhood

The streets of Patan are alive this month with lavender jacaranda trees under rain-washed skies as <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/the-red-god-rises-again-in-patan">the chariot of Rato Matsyendranath</a> is pulled across town. This is the festival of the rain god, and inevitably the heavens opened up and pre-monsoon showers pelted the chariot as it started being pulled in Pulchok last week. Thousands of devotees, onlookers and the chariot procession organisers thronged the streets on the first day last week. The rhythmic cymbals and drums exuded a vibrant energy as the enormous four wheels turned and the chariot lurched.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025051007050_81df97744db16f732a419dc1f1579d235ce3df37642b078f50b83bd4bd026688.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="2025051007050_81df97744db16f732a419dc1f1579d235ce3df37642b078f50b83bd4bd026688" data-rendition-name="original" width="1000" height="1503" loading="lazy" alt="Divine chariot"> </figure>  The<a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/Red-rain-god,3141"> red rain god</a> has Hindu and Buddhist antecedents, alternatively called Bungadya and<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/kathmandu-s-gravity-defying-chariot-festival"> Karunamaya</a> — reflecting Kathmandu Valley’s syncretic mixture of the two religions.&nbsp; “Bungadya is a profoundly <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/12-full-opinion/marketing-the-intangible">intangible form of heritage</a>,” explains heritage expert Monalisa Maharjan. “It embodies traditional knowledge,<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/multimedia/reviving-nepal-s-craft"> artisanal skills passed down through generations</a>. Local communities and specific families have specified roles in being custodians of the heritage, ensuring their survival over the centuries.” There are many legends and stories about this annual tradition. Lichhavi king Narendra Dev is supposed to have brought Rato Matsyendranath from Assam to Kathmandu Valley to convince Guru Gorakhnath to lift a spell that created a two-year drought in Kathmandu.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250510050520_347a9a398f8a9abc4a7fb4e2774fde8264cccbdce8bdab23851ab3f0e73c3e8a.jpg" data-media-id="editor_6" data-image-id="20250510050520_347a9a398f8a9abc4a7fb4e2774fde8264cccbdce8bdab23851ab3f0e73c3e8a" data-rendition-name="original" width="1503" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Divine chariot"> </figure>  Matsyendranath was Gorakhnath’s mentor, and upon seeing him, the serpents were released, unleashing the rains. The chariot festival honours the return of this life-giving rain. The deity is seen as an icon for thriving agriculture, t<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/before-the-next-monsoon">he arrival of monsoon</a> showers, and the welfare of the community. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/the-reign-of-the-god-of-rain">The reign of the god of rain</a>, Vidhu Prakash Kayastha Till this day, the Rato Matsyendranath festival is no ordinary celebration. Patan does not sleep for a month as the chariot is pulled through various neighbourhoods. It unfolds at a state level with the president (formerly the king) attending the climax of the Bhoto Jatra in Jawalakhel later this month.&nbsp; The intergenerational transmission of tradition is unique in the world, and the reason the festival is one of the most vibrant cultural expressions that thrives despite inroads of modernity. The other unique aspect is that it is a transnational festival, binding Patan with Guwahati in the Indian state of Assam.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025051005058_8bc685ada13045d863b28e3eed91c931da2b510714586af6fd7eb5d1e298a24a.jpg" data-media-id="editor_9" data-image-id="2025051005058_8bc685ada13045d863b28e3eed91c931da2b510714586af6fd7eb5d1e298a24a" data-rendition-name="original" width="1000" height="1503" loading="lazy" alt="Divine chariot"> </figure>  “Unlike Nepal, where the deity commands grandeur and devotion, many in Assam are unaware of Rato Matsyendranath,” says Khagen Sharma of Gauhati University, which convened <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-assam-connection-revived">a symposium in February in Guwahati on the rain god</a>. Attending was a delegation led by Lalitpur Mayor Chiribabu Maharjan, organisers of the festival, and builders of the chariot. After the symposium, a committee was formed to explore and revive the tradition in Assam as well. Although the team had planned to visit Nepal this month, logistical challenges delayed the trip. Still, there are plans to build a Guru Matsyendranath statue in Assam to reestablish regular worship practices in the Guwahati shrine.&nbsp; The vines used to build the chariot in Patan are sourced from the jungles of Assam. But Sharma notes that in recent years unclear regulations have blocked the official import of the vines, although they are still brought to Nepal informally. The <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/makers-of-machhindranath,2204">chariot making</a> has also had a taste of modernisation in recent times. In the past, even a single nail or piece of steel was avoided. But over time, the wooden structure, particularly the shaft between the wheels, has been replaced with bronze. When that too proved unstable, metal clamps were introduced, which have become a pragmatic compromise.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250510050524_b2a819a5791612f14c81d30fc393dbd3f99f0c64b90a9110e8b0855d944bfa93.jpg" data-media-id="editor_12" data-image-id="20250510050524_b2a819a5791612f14c81d30fc393dbd3f99f0c64b90a9110e8b0855d944bfa93" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="998" loading="lazy" alt="Divine chariot"> </figure>  Another welcome change is the focus on safety. Builders climbing the chariot’s tower now wear harnesses and there are efforts in crowd control. The most visible change in recent years has been the involvement of Patan’s enthusiastic youth in the festival — the tradition is now passing to a new generation. Says Matsyendranath expert Vidhu Kayastha: “There is more energy, the young people in red t-shirts this year were very organised, these modern touches aren’t diluting our culture, they’re keeping it alive in new forms.” He adds, “We are <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/searching-for-a-homeland-away-from-home">reconnecting with our roots</a>, we have more resources, more awareness than ever before. We must not be swept away by western values that may not serve us, and in some ways, cause more harm than good. We must revive our own culture.”&nbsp;

Divine chariot

In 2025, two seemingly disconnected acts of violence shattered the illusion of stability in the region. In March, <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/16f7f947-1e96-4206-9844-891378adc683" target="_blank">militants hijacked a passenger train</a> near the Bolan Pass in Balochistan, executing soldiers in cold blood. A month later, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/22/world/asia/kashmir-terrorist-attack.html" target="_blank">gunmen in Kashmir’s</a> Pahalgam Valley massacred tourists. 
In both Islamabad and New Delhi, <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/4/25/were-cursed-kashmiris-under-attack-across-india-after-pahalgam-killings" target="_blank">the reaction was reflexive:</a> condemn the violence, <a href="https://www.economist.com/asia/2025/04/22/india-and-pakistan-could-come-to-blows-over-kashmir" target="_blank">blame external enemies</a>, declare the situation contained. But South Asia’s leaders are not fighting terrorists alone. They are fighting the consequences of their own betrayals.
Across <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-26272897" target="_blank">Balochistan</a>, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-south-asia-11693674" target="_blank">Kashmir</a>, <a href="https://www.crisisgroup.org/asia/south-asia/india/346-finding-way-out-festering-conflict-indias-manipur" target="_blank">Manipur</a>, and beyond, decades of <a href="https://www.amnesty.org/en/projects/enforced-disappearance-in-south-asia/" target="_blank">enforced disappearances</a>, broken promises, and brute militarisation have hollowed out the social contracts meant to hold these nations together. The grievances that drove rebellions from the 1940s through the 1990s – demands for dignity, recognition, and political agency – were never meaningfully addressed. They were buried beneath asphalt and propaganda, paved over by development projects and security checkpoints.
States may claim victory. But their victories are mirages, dissolving the moment anyone looks too closely. South Asia’s unfinished wars are not relics of a violent past. They are live ammunition, loaded into the future.
<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/mar/24/he-only-wanted-revenge-the-bloody-insurgency-in-balochistan-gaining-lethal-momentum" target="_blank">Balochistan</a> has been at war with Pakistan for most of its modern history. Rich in gas, minerals, and coastline, the province has been plundered for decades under the language of national development. 
Projects like the <a href="https://eastasiaforum.org/2020/11/26/pakistans-three-evils-cpec-and-good-governance/" target="_blank">China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)</a> promise progress but deliver exclusion: minerals are mined, ports are secured, but Baloch homes are raided. 
The insurgency endures not because of foreign conspiracies, as Islamabad endlessly insists, but because the Pakistani state remains incapable of seeing its <a href="https://thebalochistanpost.net/2025/01/enforced-disappearances-in-balochistan-in-december-2024-tbp-report/" target="_blank">Baloch citizens</a> as anything other than a security problem to be managed.
In <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/ranisingh/2016/07/12/kashmir-in-the-worlds-most-militarized-zone-violence-after-years-of-comparative-calm/" target="_blank">Kashmir</a>, the Indian government claims to have <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/08/world/asia/kashmir-village-defense-committees.html" target="_blank">“normalised” the valley</a> after revoking its autonomy in 2019. It <a href="https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/conflict-between-india-and-pakistan" target="_blank">looks a lot like occupation</a>. Soldiers outnumber local leaders, dissent is criminalised, internet shutdowns suffocate public life. Tourism campaigns and investment summits cannot erase a generation raised under curfew and surveillance.
<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-66260730" target="_blank">Manipur’s descent into ethnic bloodshed</a> in 2023 exposed another fault line Delhi prefers to ignore. Long-simmering tensions between the Meitei and Kuki communities erupted into violence that shattered any illusions of northeastern integration. The central government’s delayed, politicised response made clear what many Manipuris had always suspected: they are citizens of India only when convenient.
Even the <a href="https://msf.org.au/rohingya-worlds-largest-stateless-population" target="_blank">Rohingya, stateless and exiled from Myanmar</a>, find themselves entangled in South Asia’s ethnonationalist calculus. Fleeing genocide, they are criminalised anew in Bangladesh and India – trapped between the countries that reject them and the memories that refuse to let them go.
South Asia’s states have excelled at suppressing rebellion. But failed at extinguishing the reasons rebellions rise in the first place. And the wars South Asia tries to forget at home have found new life abroad.
Across <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-06-17/modis-indian-government-accused-of-spying-silencing-critics/103974414" target="_blank">Canada, Australia, Britain, and the United States</a>, diasporic communities have become memory-keepers and, increasingly, <a href="https://www.business-standard.com/world-news/khalistan-supporters-hold-protest-outside-indian-consulate-in-vancouver-123092600087_1.html" target="_blank">the agitators</a> for the struggles their home states would rather erase.
Khalistan flags fly outside Indian consulates in Vancouver and <a href="https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/punjab/perturbed-over-waving-of-khalistani-flags-at-an-event-in-melbourne-india-warns-australia-of-khalistan-separatists-and-their-links-with-terror-groups-458320/" target="_blank">Melbourne</a>. Tamil activists march through London, demanding accountability for the <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/5/19/grim-reminder-sri-lankas-tamils-mark-15-years-since-end-of-civil-war" target="_blank">massacres in Mullivaikkal</a>. Kashmiri protests in Washington and New York refuse to let India’s crackdown slip into diplomatic amnesia.
For host countries, these movements pose uncomfortable questions. Freedom of expression collides with fears of extremism. Clashes erupt between communities carrying wounds that their new homelands.
Meanwhile, South Asian states pursue their adversaries across borders. India faces allegations of <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/canada-says-india-home-minister-ordered-campaign-against-sikh-activist-rcna177972" target="_blank">targeting Sikh activists for assassination in Canada</a> and the <a href="https://www.npr.org/2024/10/27/g-s1-29561/sikh-separatist-assassination-india" target="_blank">United States</a>. Pakistan continues to court Kashmiri separatists abroad while crushing Baloch dissent at home. <a href="https://apnews.com/article/sri-lanka-tamils-civil-war-dead-5b372b0bba567837c5a4d94250040e7d" target="_blank">Sri Lanka</a> lobbies furiously to brand Tamil diaspora organisations as fronts for terrorism, even as it stonewalls investigations into its own wartime atrocities.
The old insurgencies have not been defeated. They have been globalised. South Asia’s governments have long mistaken silence for stability.
In Punjab, India broke the back of the <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/06/india/india-canada-sikh-khalistan-analysis-intl-hnk/index.html" target="_blank">Khalistan insurgency</a> through brute force. The fields grew green again, the trains ran on time. But the wounds were never closed, the <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/why-is-indias-khalistan-separatist-movement-on-the-rise/a-65081729" target="_blank">movement’s heart beats</a> not in Amritsar but in Brampton and Surrey.
In Sri Lanka, the <a href="https://www.academia.edu/4738983/The_Man_Who_Destroyed_Eelam" target="_blank">military crushed the Tamil Tigers</a> with <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2011/01/17/death-of-the-tiger" target="_blank">overwhelming brutality in 2009</a>. <a href="https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3264148/we-want-our-children-back-sri-lankan-families-still-demanding-justice-their-missing-loved-ones" target="_blank">Tamil families still search for their missing</a>, still mourn their dead – and still organise across the diaspora for justice that remains undelivered.
In Kashmir, Delhi boasts of new <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2023/2/4/kashmir-is-bleeding-its-economy" target="_blank">highways and investment corridors</a>, showcasing the region as a trophy of unity. But when the visitors leave and the cameras are packed away, <a href="https://harvardlawreview.org/print/vol-134/from-domicile-to-dominion-indias-settler-colonial-agenda-in-kashmir/" target="_blank">the checkpoints, the raids, and the quiet despair remain.</a>
Victory parades fade. Grievance endures. Suppressing insurgency may end battles. It does not end the ideas that fueled them. In a region where <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/23/world/asia/kashmir-attack-india-pakistan.html" target="_blank">history is rarely past</a>, and memory is rarely voluntary, states that rule through repression are only ever buying time. And often, not very much.
South Asia’s unfinished wars are not accidents. They are the inevitable consequences of states that confuse conquest with consent, and erasure with reconciliation. They cannot legislate memory out of existence.
Every <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c15qyyzz89lo" target="_blank">disappeared son in Balochistan</a>, every <a href="https://medium.com/the-wvoice/the-half-widows-in-kashmir-fef80c6b88e9" target="_blank">half-widow in Kashmir</a>, every <a href="https://www.doctorswithoutborders.org/what-we-do/focus/rohingya-refugee-crisis" target="_blank">refugee child born stateless in a Rohingya camp</a> carries forward the memory of betrayal – a memory that outlives soldiers, politicians, and peace accords alike.
The region’s future will not be decided by GDP figures or infrastructure projects alone. It will be decided by whether its governments can summon the political courage to face the truths they have long suppressed – or whether they will continue down a path <a href="https://theconversation.com/india-is-using-the-g20-summit-to-further-its-settler-colonial-ambitions-in-kashmir-205166" target="_blank">where forgetting is demanded</a>, and rebellion becomes inevitable.
Shyam Tekwani is a professor at the Daniel K. Inouye Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies in Hawaii. This <a href="https://dkiapcss.edu/nexus_articles/ghosts-at-the-border-south-asias-unfinished-wars/" target="_blank">article</a> was originally published on <a href="https://dkiapcss.edu/security-nexus/" target="_blank">DKI APCSS Security Nexus.</a> The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of DKI APCSS, the Department of Defense, or the US Government. The appearance of external hyperlinks does not constitute endorsement by the United States Department of Defense (DoD) of the linked websites, or the information, products, or services contained therein. DoD does not exercise any editorial, security, or other control over the information you may find at these sites.

Balochistan to Kashmir

Most Nepalis thought they had seen the last of it after <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/11-56-25-april-2015-wkc9q2an">the 25 April 7.8 magnitude </a>earthquake ten years ago. But the Himalaya had more surprises in store. On 12 May, another 7.3 magnitude tremor that some said was an aftershock, but was strong enough to itself be a major earthquake, struck Dolakha.&nbsp; Not many people had heard of Singati till then — a cluster of houses by the Tama Kosi River along a narrow gorge that is the roadhead to Rolwaling Valley.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250508110520_57b6e316656851f71eca56ca6f98d9bbcc820c1a00d62af3c990725b4361244d.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20250508110520_57b6e316656851f71eca56ca6f98d9bbcc820c1a00d62af3c990725b4361244d" data-rendition-name="original" width="1000" height="1500" loading="lazy" alt="Climate magnifies earthquake risk in Nepal village NT"> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250508110520_016534fb2b6a79957402281cda768efb83a146786377e39e11df3e251d37159e.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20250508110520_016534fb2b6a79957402281cda768efb83a146786377e39e11df3e251d37159e" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Climate magnifies earthquake risk in Nepal village NT"> </figure>  It was here that dozens were killed on 25 April in the first earthquake. Hundreds of <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/Singati-rising-from-rubble-rebuilding,3703">Singati survivors</a> had lined up for food and relief supplies in the morning of 12 May when the second earthquake triggered a rock slide that buried a nearby camp. At least 50 people were killed. &nbsp; Three hours later, a US Marine Corps UH-1Y Venom helicopter landed in a nearby cornfield to pick up the wounded, and flew off. The aircraft lost contact with air traffic control in Kathmandu and its wreckage was located high on Kalinchok four days later. Six American servicemen, two Nepal Army soldiers, and five wounded civilians from Singati were killed. Today, Singati bears little physical scar of the multiple tragedies that struck the town ten years ago. Most <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/multimedia/bungamati-builds-back">houses have been rebuilt</a> as urban-style concrete structures, and Singati has become an economic hub on the road leading up to several hydropower plants and a<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/off-the-beaten-trek-in-nepal"> popular trekking destination</a>.&nbsp; The town looks less like a village and more like a suburb of the Dolakha district headquarter of Charikot, 47km away.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250508110520_196f341d1df1403ba133e5dfeb837eec20d7cbcb4c8c56b17cc5598810de5df2.jpg" data-media-id="editor_6" data-image-id="20250508110520_196f341d1df1403ba133e5dfeb837eec20d7cbcb4c8c56b17cc5598810de5df2" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Climate magnifies earthquake risk in Nepal village NT"> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250508110524_ae66c4a92430f67db51b5e11e017059eedfbac4cb18c8e073f2a50cca1fe904e.jpg" data-media-id="editor_7" data-image-id="20250508110524_ae66c4a92430f67db51b5e11e017059eedfbac4cb18c8e073f2a50cca1fe904e" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Climate magnifies earthquake risk in Nepal village NT"> </figure>  “The demand for construction material, cement, iron rods and bricks peaked after the earthquakes,” says Suresh Khadka, who owns a hardware business here and now supplies material to the 456MW Upper Tama Kosi hydropower project that is undergoing repairs after it was damaged by a landslide last year. The demand for cement boomed since most residents believe, not necessarily correctly, that <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/in-a-disastrous-state">cement houses are safer</a>. Although Khadka did well selling construction material after the earthquake, he worries that most new structures do not follow seismic-resistant building codes.&nbsp; The construction boom financed by bank loans has in turn forced many from Singati to <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/making-overseas-migration-better">migrate overseas for work</a> so they can service their debt.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250508110524_50caa4530bd5ff9120cf7ab70a62173846d337ef448ff8bac339f3faa375a9e2.jpg" data-media-id="editor_10" data-image-id="20250508110524_50caa4530bd5ff9120cf7ab70a62173846d337ef448ff8bac339f3faa375a9e2" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Climate magnifies earthquake risk in Nepal village NT"> <figcaption>Suresh Khadka</figcaption> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250508110520_ef8b7d3993fc3b5df852bbf952feb3fbabc96d6883b0d5eb74ee5c60f4123b83.jpg" data-media-id="editor_11" data-image-id="20250508110520_ef8b7d3993fc3b5df852bbf952feb3fbabc96d6883b0d5eb74ee5c60f4123b83" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Climate magnifies earthquake risk in Nepal village NT"> <figcaption>Phu Doma Sherpa (right)</figcaption> </figure>  “My family had no choice but to borrow money to rebuild our home since the government compensation was not enough, and ten years later we are still paying off the loan,” says Phu Doma Sherpa, 60. Because of the shortage of qualified masons and proper seismic engineering, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/structural-problems">many of the buildings are of questionable building standards </a>and the traditional architecture has been abandoned, admits Kul Bahadur Budathoki, deputy chair of the municipality. “But these buildings were more expensive than what the government grants could cover, many people here are heavily in debt and the men have <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/every-day-is-closer-to-pay-day">migrated to the Gulf to pay their loans</a>,” Budathoki says.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250508110520_32f89e97b7e757fc9286c0bbb671f48ea8d4468e9634fa646d7247c650ad8480.jpg" data-media-id="editor_14" data-image-id="20250508110520_32f89e97b7e757fc9286c0bbb671f48ea8d4468e9634fa646d7247c650ad8480" data-rendition-name="original" width="1501" height="1079" loading="lazy" alt="Climate magnifies earthquake risk in Nepal village NT"> <figcaption>Kul Bahadur Budathoki</figcaption> </figure>  Singati is in a multi-hazard zone. The <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/Singati,3091">12 May 2015 earthquake </a>could have led to the collapse of Nepal’s largest glacial lake, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/stairway-to-heaven">Tso Rolpa</a>, upstream. Due to global warming, the glacier has turned into an expanding lake 3.5km long, and its collapse would have unleashed a catastrophic Himalayan tsunami down the Tama Kosi Valley, with Singati directly in its path. Singati has literally risen from the ashes of 2015, with its residents beginning to recover from the trauma and financial toll. But it is not out of danger as <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/climate-breakdown-linked-to-thame-flood">climate breakdown </a>magnifies the risk from future earthquakes.

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