Just as Donald Trump’s overall economic strategy is based on nostalgia for a bygone era, his fossil-fuel-centred energy policies would represent an attempt to reverse history.&nbsp;
He would ultimately fail, but not before doing a great deal of damage to US competitiveness and security, and have an enormous impact on the efforts to combat global climate change.&nbsp;
While Donald Trump lacks a coherent platform, he clearly stands far apart from Vice President Kamala Harris on the issue.<a href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/onpoint/wealth-inequality-billionaires-undue-influence-bad-for-society-by-daron-acemoglu-2024-09#comments" target="_blank"> 
 
</a>Earlier this year, Trump <a href="https://www.budget.senate.gov/chairman/newsroom/press/budget-finance-committees-launch-joint-investigation-into-donald-trumps-quid-pro-quo-offer-to-big-oil-" target="_blank">reportedly</a> requested $1 billion in campaign contributions from fossil-fuel industry executives, promising in turn to roll back environmental regulations, hasten permitting and leasing approvals, and preserve or enhance tax benefits that the oil and gas industry enjoys.
Even if Trump is not an outright climate-change denier, he belongs to a broader school of politicians and commentators who do not think that we need to worry about it.&nbsp;
His vision for ‘Making America Great Again’ is to make the United States an even larger polluter, an even larger producer of fossil fuels, and an even bigger laggard behind Europe and much of the rest of the world.
Both science and technology are working against the fossil-fuel industry. The cost of renewables has plummeted, and under normal circumstances, this would have driven down the price of fossil fuels. But because Russia is such a large supplier of petrochemicals, the war in Ukraine has distorted the market.
If elected, Trump would probably sell out Ukraine, or at least arrange a temporary ceasefire, thus facilitating a greater flow of oil and gas. He also wants to reverse the US Inflation Reduction Act and increase hostilities with China, which produces many of the world’s solar panels and other critical inputs for decarbonisation.&nbsp;
A major slowdown of the green transition in the US is thus a real risk, even before considering the possibility that Trump would further increase the already massive US subsidies for fossil fuels.
Trump’s first term already offered a preview of what an overtly fossil fuel-friendly America would mean for the rest of the world. He endorsed climate-change deniers in Brazil and a host of other countries, and the US withdrew from the Paris climate agreement. In the years thereafter, progress on global climate cooperation clearly slowed.
But eight years after he first assumed office, the economic and security implications of climate change have become much clearer. Europe and Japan seem resolute in their commitments to tax imports from major carbon polluters, and though Trump would probably retaliate for these policies, US allies can take some comfort in the fact that he would have imposed tariffs on them in any case.
Ironically, often-vilified multinationals might play a crucial role in sustaining the green transition. The leaders of these companies recognise the realities of climate change, and they know that they must operate in multiple jurisdictions. If they do not join in the broader green transition, they will lose out now, and even more so in the future.
Even within America, the largest and most important states have already passed legislation pushing firms to decarbonise their operations and reduce carbon footprints. That means large companies operating in multiple states are already pursuing and adopting green technologies and business practices – and for the same reasons that multinationals will.
Yes, there will be aggressive attempts by some fossil-fuel companies to roll back these regulations. But there will also be stronger civil-society efforts, including <a href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/juliana-vs-us-extraordinary-tactics-to-block-federal-climate-lawsuit-by-joseph-e-stiglitz-2024-03" target="_blank">through the courts</a>, to hold companies accountable for the damage they have wrought.&nbsp;
Smart business leaders will recognise the folly of resisting the inevitable. Even in the oil and gas industry, some companies are already changing their business model to phase down fossil fuels and invest in renewable energy.
Thus, global politics, science, technology, sound corporate management, and the climate itself all weigh against Trump’s love of fossil fuels. Four decades ago, many assumed that tropical countries would bear the brunt of the costs, owing to their already high temperatures.&nbsp;
They indeed are affected, with some facing desertification and others poised to become uninhabitable. But they are hardly alone. The US has already suffered enormous damage, and by the end of the century those losses are estimated to be between <a href="https://epic.uchicago.edu/area-of-focus/climate-change-and-the-us-economic-future/" target="_blank">1-4% of GDP</a> annually.
It makes far more sense to do what we can now to limit this damage than to make the same kinds of repairs year after year. Four decades ago, we thought the cost of combating climate change would be very high. But low-cost renewables and the emergence of other new technologies have changed everything.&nbsp;
The cost of renewable energy is low and falling, and it would be even lower and falling faster with a greater public commitment to the green transition and the investments it requires.
There will be a green transition, the only questions are how fast it will proceed, and how much damage we will incur if it is delayed. Trump will attempt to throw a wrench in the process. He wants the fossil-fuel industry’s support, and the industry will view its campaign contributions as a high-return investment. A Republican-controlled Congress would, of course, do whatever Trump says.
The resulting pro-fossil-fuel environment would facilitate fossil-fuel investments, but since these have long time horizons, many would become stranded assets. American taxpayers thus may wind up paying thrice for the blunder.
In addition to the direct and hidden subsidies during the Trump administration and the direct and hidden compensation for stranded assets sometime in the future, they also will have to deal with the resulting lack of energy and climate security.
Elections always matter, but this one matters more than most. © Project Syndicate
Joseph E. Stiglitz is a Nobel laureate in economics and University Professor at Columbia University, is a former chief economist of the World Bank. He is the author, most recently, of The Road to Freedom: Economics and the Good Society (<a href="https://wwnorton.com/books/9781324074373/about-the-book/product-details" target="_blank">W. W. Norton &amp; Company</a>, <a href="https://www.penguin.co.uk/books/461399/the-road-to-freedom-by-stiglitz-joseph-e/9780241687888" target="_blank">Allen Lane</a>, 2024)

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The climate stakes of the US election

https://youtu.be/RTnxJKo97DIFor many tourists trekking to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/re-measuring-mt-everest/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Mt Everest</a> Base Camp this autumn, the trip will be an adventure of a lifetime. The thin clear air, stark landscape, and ice-tipped peaks pierce the inky sky providing great Instagram backdrops.However, what is stunning scenery to tourists is for climate scientists an apocalyptic sight. They see dramatic evidence all around of a rapidly warming atmosphere.Visitors returning to the Everest region after 20 years also notice changes: large lakes where there were none, glacial ice replaced by ponds, boulders and sand, the snowline moving up the mountains, and glaciers that have receded and shrunk.Read also:<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/climate-for-change/the-great-himalayan-thaw/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The great Himalayan thaw</a>, Ajaya Dixit<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107171112/63692eea9c7e80680e03c079jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1400" height="1050"/><figcaption>HIMALAYAN MELTDOWN: The Khumbu Glacier is the highest in the world and receding at 30m/y. It is also shrinking: Base Camp is now 50m lower than when Hillary and Tenzing climbed Mt Everest in 1955. Pics: Kunda Dixit</figcaption></figure>All these features are visible from ground level right from the start of the trek in Lukla. The banks of the Bhote Kosi still bear the scars of the deadly flash flood in 1985 which washed off a long section of the <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/thebrief/2014/05/19/everest-climbers-continue-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Everest Trail</a> and the hydropower plant in Thame. It was caused by an avalanche falling into the Dig Tso glacial lake, causing it to top over.Further up near Tengboche, the <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/page/not-out-of-danger-the-big-one" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Imja Khola</a> also bears signs of a huge glacial lake outburst flood that thundered down the western flank of <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=12870#.W7XuTHszbIU" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Ama Dablam</a> in 1977. And below the formidable south face of Lhotse is Imja Tso, a lake 2km long that has formed and grown in the last 30 years. It does not exist on trekking maps from the 1980s. All these lakes were formed and enlarged as a result of global warming melting the ice.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107171112/63692eee9c7e80680e03c07ajpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="990"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107171112/63692ef19c7e80680e03c07bjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="800"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>The terminal moraine of the <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Book-Review/The-Everest,428" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Khumbu </a>Glacier looms 400m above Dughla. This is the debris bulldozed down from Mt Everest and surrounding peaks over millions of years, and represents the extent of the glacier’s advance in the last Ice Age. Today, the surface ice on the world’s highest glacier is all but gone due to natural and anthropogenic warming.For an even more dramatic glimpse of how global warming is changing the Himalayan landscape, there is nothing like an aerial perspective. Nepali Times got a chance last week to take these striking images of the terrain below Mt Everest. The barren beauty foretells of a time when this terrain will be stripped of much of what remains of its ice cover.Read also: <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/melting-mountains-shake,3073" target="_blank" rel="noopener">When melting mountains shake</a>, Kunda Dixit<a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/ice-to-water-glacier-lake-outburts-himalayas-nepal,4197" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Ice to water</a>, C Scott Watson<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107171112/63692ef49c7e80680e03c07cjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1400" height="1050"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107171112/63692ef79c7e80680e03c07djpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1400" height="1050"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>The Khumbu Icefall funnels ice from the Western Cwm below Everest, Lhotse and Nuptse to the glacier below. The ice here has receded at an average of 30m/y in the past 20 years, but it has also shrunk vertically, losing up to 50m in thickness. Everest Base Camp was at 5,330m when <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/thebrief/2018/01/13/commemorating-edmund-hillary/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Hillary </a>and Tenzing climbed Mt Everest in 1953, today it is at 5,270m.The glacier is also getting flatter: the darker debris makes the ice beneath melt faster near Base Camp, but the thicker layers of boulders and sand further down insulate the ice. Glaciologists say this flatter profile means the ice moves slower, leading to more ponding, and more rapid melting of the ice underneath.The velocity of the glacier is 70m/y at Base Camp, and it slows down to 10m/y further below, but is zero at the terminus situated at 4,900m. This means the ice is decelerating as it is squeezed, and the pressure is being released by the melting of the ice mass.Researchers monitoring the supraglacial ponds say their area has grown by 70% in the past ten years alone. The ponds are fringed by ice cliffs and caves which accelerate the melting. The melted ice has carved an outflow channel through the left lateral moraine, so there is no large glacial lake on the Khumbu like as elsewhere in Nepal.Scientists conclude that the Khumbu Glacier is not about to vanish, and the Icefall is not going to turn into a water fall any time soon. However, the permanent ice catchment of the glacier above 6,000 could start to deplete under the worst-case ‘beyond catastrophic’ scenario of +5°C warming.Read also: <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/interview/interview-with-david-molden-icimod,3074" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nepalis paying price for climate change</a><a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/going-green-environment-day,3064" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Climactic change, Editorial</a><h4>Climate Eco Tourism</h4><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107171112/63692efa9c7e80680e03c07ejpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1400" height="934">Will more tourists visiting areas threatened by global warming spread awareness and help save the planet, or will the energy they burn contribute to making the earth warmer?Both. Tour operators offer Antarctic cruises, trips to Greenland and the Arctic to observe calving glaciers up close. Many have scientists on board instead of tour guides, and the travel companies say the trips help spread environmental awareness.However, mass tourism also comes with its own enlarged carbon footprint and the very act of visiting the Himalaya to see melting glaciers may contribute to thawing them faster. The carbon emitted by a holiday charter plane to the Maldives, for example, leads to sea level rise that may ultimately submerge the archipelago nation by the end of the century.However, as awareness grows about the effects of global warming in the poles and the ‘Third Pole’ (as the Himalaya is called) there is also increasing interest among the public to see up close the impact of climate change on the mountains. Many trekkers visiting Nepal are eco-conscious and aware that their travel and stay in Nepal comes with a carbon cost.Read also: <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=16562#.W7XuDHszbIU" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Defrosted</a>, Kunda Dixit<a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Book-Review/The-Everest,428" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Everest Industry</a>, Kunda Dixit<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107171112/63692efd9c7e80680e03c07fjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1400" height="1050"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>As they share their impressions on social media, there is evidence that climate tourism can indeed turn many visitors into environmental activists, or at least convince them to lead less carbon-intensive lifestyles when they get back home.Many environmentally sensitive visitors to Nepal these days calculate their carbon footprint from the aviation fuel per passenger on their flights to Kathmandu and Lukla, in taxi rides, and even the carbon emitted by the LPG gas in lodges along the Everest trail. And they try to offset all that by donating to agencies working on adaptation or mitigation of climate impact.Even so, there are critics of carbon offsetting who say that it is cosmetic and does not address the wasteful consumerism that is at the root of the climate crisis. They say trekkers on Everest hikes who buy carbon offsets are simply washing off their guilt, and shifting the responsibility to do something about global warming on someone else.On balance, however, there is a case to be made for climate eco-tourism creating jobs and benefitting the Nepal economy, ultimately allowing the tourism industry to introduce less carbon intensive technology. Tourists from all over the world can also see for themselves how the people suffering the most from the effects of climate change are the ones least responsible for it.There are websites to calculate your carbon footprint and how to offset the cost to the climate of your tour. There are also trekking agencies and airlines that try to minimise their carbon footprints.<a href="http://www.carbonfootprint.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Carbon Footprint</a><a href="http://www.responsibleadventures.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Responsible Adventures</a>:Mountain Helicopters: 01-4111032<h4>HOW MUCH CO2 DID YOU BURN TO GET HERE?</h4><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107171112/63692eff9c7e80680e03c080jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="850" height="314">An economy class roundtrip passenger on a flight from London Heathrow to Lukla via Kathmandu emits 2.9 tons of carbon. The emission can be offset by contributing to verified climate protection projects that do not just contribute to reducing greenhouse gases and creating carbon sinks through forestry, but also for sustainable development.Readers' writePowerful article and photos -- nothing like it. So impressive and informative and depressing. Especially useful, the last sidebar: How Much Carbon Did You Burn to Get Here?- Jon Swan

Kunda Dixit

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On thin ice in the Khumbu

Next to my home in Bhainsepati stood a dead Uttis tree next to a public tap. A nearby water tank built a year earlier had killed its roots.
If the tree collapsed, people living nearby and those queuing up to fetch water at the tap would be hurt. With the storm season approaching, the risk was obvious. The tree could also fall on my own house, so I volunteered to find a way to remove this threat.
Little did I know how difficult it would be. A forest officer acquaintance told me there is a special procedure for cutting risky trees. I contacted the Lalitpur District Forest Office (DFO).&nbsp;
He said a technical report from a field officer was needed, and passed on her number. When I called, she asked for the location, photos, and a video. I send them all.
The ward office also suggested I use Lalitpur Metropolitan City’s mobile app, Lalitpur Alert, to report the problem. I uploaded photos, and submitted the complaint. This seemed to be very easy and efficient.
Indeed, the next day the municipality called me back and I explained the situation. They said they could not act without permission from the DFO. I asked why the app existed if the city could not act on such complaints. The officer said he did not know. My happiness was short-lived.
A couple of days later, the app notified me that my problem had been solved, and the complaint was removed. But the dead tree still stood there defiantly.&nbsp;
A week later, two forest technicians arrived on a scooter to inspect the tree. They looked up at the tree and asked if I had a measuring tape so they could measure its diameter.
“You are the technicians,” I told them. “You came to inspect the tree, and you came without a measuring tape?”
I rummaged at home and found a tape measure. They got the diameter and said they would prepare a technical report, but I would have to obtain a recommendation letter from the ward office and submit it to the DFO.
“This tree is dead,” I told them. “It is on public land. You have seen it with your own eyes. You know it's dangerous, so write a report and arrange for it to be cut. Why do I have to run from office to office to apply for recommendation letters?”
Their answer was simple, yet expected: “Those are the rules.”
They left, and I gave up. Two technicians spent half a day visiting the site. The metropolis runs a complaint system with a mobile app funded with public money. The ward office has staff to solve problems. Yet none of these institutions took the responsibility to remove a dangerous tree.
Everyone is busy citing rules and regulations and passing the buck. Weeks passed. Everyone reacted to the problem, but no one took any responsibility to resolving it.
Then, one bright December morning under a deep blue sky, a few neighbourhood boys were swinging their axes on the trunk. They had no proper equipment, no safety gear, and no professional experience.
I gave the boys some money and so did a neighbour. It took an hour or so for the tree to come crashing down safely. We had paid to have the tree cut illegally, and the matter ended there.
Multiple government offices, technicians, procedures, and mobile apps could not remove a dangerous tree, and we had to break the law to cut it. The tree is gone now, but the real problem remains: an inefficient bureaucracy.&nbsp;
It is perhaps symbolic that the tree is the election sign of the Nepali Congress, which was part of Nepal's governance and bureaucracy for decades and did not perform well in this month's election.&nbsp;
That is the bureaucracy that the new RSP government now has to get to work. But it will not be easy.
I posted on Facebook: ‘When people feel leaders have grown arrogant or corrupt with power, they change their minds and their votes. If those who replace them follow the same path, voters will again change their minds and votes.’
I continued: ‘The strength of democracy lies in this simple principle: the more citizens act as independent voters, the stronger democracy becomes. The more they behave as party loyalists, the weaker it grows. If we want a better system, we must demand deep reform of the state bureaucracy and hold institutions accountable.’&nbsp;
The first responses came from two senior government officials. They told me privately that they agreed by 200% but could not say so publicly.
It is quite normal for a Nepali to get the run around in government offices, it is almost a given to be asked for a bribe. As an environmental reporter and citizen, I have numerous such examples.
It is not just one sector that has been suffering. It is everywhere, and this is just an example of how complicated our bureaucracy is. As a 40 something person, I am old enough to remember the 1990 pro-democracy movement, &nbsp;the Maoist insurgency. Many promises made then by the politicians were broken.
We fought for rights, we fought for regime change. The country has changed political systems several times, from monarchy to multiparty democracy and finally a republic.
Yet one thing that remains largely untouched or reformed is our inefficient and corrupt bureaucracy. The new government, to be led by the youngest prime minister in our history must start this reform if it wants to deliver.&nbsp;
Otherwise, we may have to keep changing governments every few years, and still find ourselves unable to legally cut down even one dead tree.

A dead tree tests Nepal's bureaucracy

The RSP and its prime minister are being sworn in this week after gaining an unprecedented election victory. This is a welcome change for many Nepalis who see it as a remedy to decades of coalition instability.&nbsp; Yet Nepal’s political history suggests otherwise. No majority government has ever completed its full term. This reveals a deeper structural problem: weakly institutionalised parties dominated by personalities rather than ideas. 1951: Dissatisfaction with the oppressive Rana regime among the educated elite led to the creation of political parties like the Nepali Congress (NC), Praja Parishad (later merged into the Nepali Congress), Gorkha Parishad, and the Nepal Communist Party.&nbsp; They emerged secretly, mainly in India during the height of that country’s independence. They organised a successful armed uprising against the Rana rule.&nbsp; 1959: The NC won a two-thirds supermajority in the first general election. Within a year, King Mahendra staged a coup and established the partyless absolute monarchy called the Panchayat system.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260322130332_a416ab5703287898f0566dc6d2a6b95d797ce2f4ed55bffcfae2e8edc7737c5e.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20260322130332_a416ab5703287898f0566dc6d2a6b95d797ce2f4ed55bffcfae2e8edc7737c5e" data-rendition-name="original" width="675" height="849" loading="lazy" alt="Mahendra and BP"> </figure>  1991: After the People’s Movement, the ban on parties was lifted and Nepal became a constitutional monarchy. Elections were held under a new Constitution and the NC won 110 out of 205 seats, joining the United Leftist Front which functioned as a loose coalition.&nbsp; Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala’s first term ended with his resignation due to infighting, particularly with Ganesh Man Singh, who accused him of <a href="https://doi.org/10.2307/2645025" target="_blank">“emerging as a dictator, downgrading democratic norms and values, and even selling out national interests.”</a> Parliament was dissolved and the NC ended up losing the ensuing elections. 1994: Following the NC’s defeat, a <a href="https://doi.org/10.2307/2645025" target="_blank">hung parliament emerged</a> with the UML forming a minority government that lasted only nine months before collapsing after a no-confidence vote, allowing a NC-led coalition to return to power.&nbsp; 1999: Voters gave the NC a second chance and the party won 111 out of 205 seats. The party was divided between supporters of Koirala and Krishna Prasad Bhattarai, who became prime minister. &nbsp;The internal NC power struggle intensified and Koirala became prime minister again only to face bribery scandals, the Maoist insurgency, and the royal massacre.&nbsp; In 2001, under growing pressure from both the public and the party, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2001/07/20/world/nepal-premier-resigns-caught-in-chaos-after-royal-blood-bath.html" target="_blank">Koirala was forced to resign</a> to be replaced by Sher Bahadur Deuba. The party eventually split into Koirala’s NC and Deuba’s NC (Democratic). &nbsp;In this chaos, king Gyanendra dissolved the parliament and assumed executive powers.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260322130332_e107b95de5641044f72a13fd20f417d16b9a2d1ecbae3492126ee5fd4244bd84.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20260322130332_e107b95de5641044f72a13fd20f417d16b9a2d1ecbae3492126ee5fd4244bd84" data-rendition-name="original" width="1250" height="753" loading="lazy" alt="Deuba and Girija"> </figure>  2017: This was the first election under the federal constitution. The UML and Maoists created a surprise pre-electoral alliance, breaking the Maoist coalition with the NC. The left alliance won a massive victory with the UML winning 121 seats and the Maoists 53 seats. Prime Minister K P Oli fell out with Pushpa Kamal Dahal of the Maoists. The House was dissolved, with the UML itself breaking into factions. What followed was seven shaky coalition governments in eight years.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260322130352_8b09b374d7fcb811e0a652c7f60b30eea4b9052a19ed3d768ba8ca9aaeb4dec7.jpg" data-media-id="editor_5" data-image-id="20260322130352_8b09b374d7fcb811e0a652c7f60b30eea4b9052a19ed3d768ba8ca9aaeb4dec7" data-rendition-name="original" width="667" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Oli and Prachanda"> </figure>  2022: The RSP was formed only four months prior to elections, but managed to become the fourth-largest party. In this month’s &nbsp;election, the RSP won a commanding parliamentary majority by presenting itself to the electorate as different from the discredited old parties.&nbsp; The RSP leadership structure is largely personality-driven and opaque. Party leader Rabi Lamichhane joined the governing coalition with the Maoists and UML securing four ministerial positions. Lamichhane became Home Minister and Deputy Prime Minister, using his swing vote to be the kingmaker party in the coalition. Lamichhane was embroiled in various scandals which he blamed on political vendetta. There was internal dissent within the party and among supporters who felt the coalition betrayed RSP’s founding ideals.&nbsp; Lamichhane <a href="https://thediplomat.com/2023/02/key-ally-quits-government-in-nepal/" target="_blank">reportedly</a> bypassed the party’s internal mechanisms, unilaterally deciding to pull out of the government without broad consultation.&nbsp; The youth-led September protests gave the RSP an opportunity to represent GenZ aspirations, and its popularity was cemented after Balendra Shah joined the party as a prime ministerial candidate.&nbsp; With its dramatic election victory, there is a question whether the &nbsp;party can separate itself from its two leaders, and have internal democracy. Or will it just be a vessel for new political elites to continue staying in power?&nbsp; ‘BALEN PARTY’ The RSP has increasingly relied on the same tactics that the NC once used in its heyday. Backed by Balendra Shah’s meteoric rise to fame, the RSP is called ‘The Balen Party’. <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/cyberia/rsp-s-pr-list-is-not-good-pr" target="_blank">RSP’s PR list</a> includes celebrities, actors, singers, pageant winners, business personalities, and athletes to maximise visibility and public appeal. Many of these soon-to-be MPs have little to no experience working in government, or together as a team. Which is perhaps why they needed a two-day orientation last week. In today’s attention economy, political currency depends on visibility. This is why the RSP’s strategy to harness Shah’s popularity was necessary to secure victory, while Shah needed a political platform for the election.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260322130348_abd1522a1f4f8ad4a0861c3916d86bd9688deafc7c44081b976378405d2b8e39.jpg" data-media-id="editor_8" data-image-id="20260322130348_abd1522a1f4f8ad4a0861c3916d86bd9688deafc7c44081b976378405d2b8e39" data-rendition-name="original" width="900" height="900" loading="lazy" alt="Balen and Rabi"> </figure>  Political parties are essential for a democracy, but when they &nbsp;revolve around one dominant leader, internal institutions become weak, and decision-making becomes centralised in the leader rather than in party committees, rules, or ideological platforms.&nbsp; This is exactly what led to the downfall of the NC and the UML. Both over the years were ridden with inter- and intra-party strife and failed the electorate. RSP must take a lesson from this and unite to institutionalise beyond its two personalities. Or it will suffer the same fate as the legacy parties. Since its inception, RSP has espoused a populist and anti-establishment agenda. The ‘new’ RSP with the Balendra brand gained massive support by being a clear ‘other’.&nbsp; The RSP can fall into the same trap as the NC and the UML by defining itself by what it is not, rather than what it is for. Beyond the external enemies they oppose, these parties often struggle to articulate what they actually stand for.&nbsp; RSP positions itself as an alternative to established parties — a pragmatic, results-oriented political force rather than one driven by traditional ideologies. However,<a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/abs/theorizing-in-comparative-politics/parties-and-ideology/8386083191B53EC86A239B8852D4A6A6" target="_blank"> ideology gives a party identity and direction.</a> Without ideological grounding, RSP risks becoming a hollow vessel for power-chasing politicians who oppose each other’s every move, a story that is all too familiar.&nbsp; RSP can no longer define itself as being anti-establishment. It is now the establishment.&nbsp; While RSP might look like Congress 2.0 to many who have seen Nepal’s democratic trajectory, RSP does differ from past majority parties in both positive and negative ways.&nbsp; Times have also changed. Nepal is no longer a monarchy, literacy rates are much higher, social media has made information more accessible, and Nepalis are less forgiving, as seen by the events that transpired on 8-9 September 2025.&nbsp; The RSP has fielded more qualified candidates, and they could steer the country in the right direction. Many are experts in their fields and have had years of experience prior to joining politics. Having experts from such different backgrounds is a huge asset.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260322130352_426011e8c377bffcef6fcb4371325b36fb940eb5a8ab66d3c76ff5cf6f1943c7.jpg" data-media-id="editor_10" data-image-id="20260322130352_426011e8c377bffcef6fcb4371325b36fb940eb5a8ab66d3c76ff5cf6f1943c7" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="1066" loading="lazy" alt="RSP new MPs"> </figure>  Moreover, having MPs from various other parties/fields can also prevent a cult following of hardcore loyalists within the party.&nbsp; There are members loyal to certain RSP leaders in the party, but there are also those who will not hesitate to go against their leaders if need be. The RSP has little opposition in Parliament, so its own members may have to take on a check-and-balance role. Nepal is in a much better spot institutionally compared to what it was like back in the early days of its democracy. There is a Constitution, there is no active conflict, the monarchy is no longer an existential threat to democracy, and the local and provincial governmental bodies have had the time to settle.&nbsp; This means the RSP is in a better position to work without the basic institutional hurdles that previous governments faced, but it will not be able to hide behind institutional issues if it fails to deliver.&nbsp; In the past, majority parties could easily pin the blame on an authoritarian monarchy, a Maoist conflict, a lack of consensus during the constitution-building process, or a newly implemented federal system.&nbsp; Most of these were just excuses for incompetency. Governments were formed and fell based on self-serving negotiations, but they managed to keep the parties afloat, and the citizenry was willing to give them a second, third, or even fourth chance.&nbsp; The RSP will not have this privilege. Nepal has many problems, but its governmental bodies are better institutionalised than when the NC last had a majority. A challenge for RSP now would be fixing broken institutions, not building new ones. A recurring issue during Balendra Shah’s tenure as Kathmandu’s mayor were his <a href="https://kathmandupost.com/politics/2026/01/28/can-nepal-s-viral-mayor-run-the-country" target="_blank">disputes with the bureaucracy</a> that resulted in months of unpaid salary for KMC staff, a lack of collaboration between him and Deputy Mayor Sunita Dangol, and rarely any public appearances.&nbsp; The RSP is inheriting a bureaucracy tainted by deep-seated patronage networks. Sustaining a government requires institutional collaboration and a willingness to work together, not disruption and division.&nbsp; While Nepal has seen the rise of many populist figures in its democratic history, the RSP’s victory based on Balendra Shah’s fame is new. Populism is usually harmful for a democracy because it punishes dissent, turns criticism into betrayal, and fuels hyper-nationalism, authoritarianism, and polarisation. A trend of punishing criticism is already visible on online spaces. Without an effective parliamentary opposition, the responsibility for democratic accountability will fall on the media and civil society. If the trend of intolerance to criticism deepens, Nepal risks sliding toward a majoritarian politics where popularity replaces accountability. Time and again, the Nepali people have given opportunities to parties that promise change, only to face disappointment. Nepal’s political history shows that majority governments fail not because they lack seats, but because they lack institutions.&nbsp; The electoral earthquake Nepal just witnessed could bring sweeping reforms or drown the country’s fragile democracy. If RSP hopes to succeed where others failed, it must build a party that outlives its founders. Suvexa Pradhan Tuladhar is an Early Career Policy Research Fellow at the Nepal Institute for Policy Research (NIPoRe).

Will it be different this time in Nepal?

Sometimes, we need to take a step back to realise what a tectonic movement Nepali politics witnessed this month.
In a region and world ruled by elected authoritarians, Nepalis &nbsp;went to the ballot box freely to express a collective will for change.
These faces in this group photo of the RSP’s 180 freshly-minted MPs at the ballroom of the Royal Tulip Hotel on Wednesday is symbolic of what Nepal has come through.&nbsp;
The ship of state righted itself after the September Storm, installing an interim government that held an election within six months in which voters banished obsolete politicians and their parties into oblivion.
Nepalis, fed up with the inept kakistocracy of the past three decades, took the country into a post-ideological phase — replacing Marxists, Maoists and monarchists &nbsp;with a belief in a new governing culture that rewards delivery and accountability. And they have trusted the RSP to carry it through.
Nepal’s history has never been linear, it jerks ahead in lurches. The polity also tends to take one step forward and two steps back, so the public’s great expectations is tempered by a sense of cautious optimism and guarded pessimism.
This could be the great leap forward that Nepalis have waited for and deserve, but it could also be a Gramscian interregnum in which the old is dead and the new is not yet born. We will have to wait to see whether this transitional period will also see ‘morbid symptoms’.
As disruptor-in-chief, it was the Balendra Shah ‘wave’ or ‘craze’ that propelled the RSP to power. The former Kathmandu mayor needed a party platform, and the RSP’s tainted leader Rabi Lamichhane required a booster. Nepal's voters were looking for a saviour.
Personality-wise Shah and Lamichhane are poles apart: one is Type B and the other Type A. One is enigmatic, the other phlegmatic. But yin and yang do also tend to complement each other.&nbsp;
Kathmandu’s chattering class is already making self-fulfilling prophecies about the two falling out, and are fishing for hints that they already have. Shah’s absence from the RSP’s orientation this week was taken as a clue.&nbsp;
Closing the two-day tutorial on Wednesday, Lamichhane delivered a fiery 30-minute speech that laid out the RSP’s main agenda: to function differently from the old parties, serve the people, avoid middlemen, become true lawmakers without taking the law into their own hands.&nbsp;
“The old political parties contributed to history, we will build the future with a new political contract with citizens,” he said, trying to rise over past controversies and his abrasive rhetoric to sound statesmanlike.&nbsp;
GIVE AND TAKE
Lamichhane is said to be in touch with the reclusive Shah to announce a compact cabinet next week. Its composition will be an indication of how much give-and-take there was, and whether the criteria for selecting ministers is competence or loyalty.
Will RSP ministers behave like rulers or service providers? The new government will dive right into the economic fallout of the West Asia war with soaring fuel &nbsp;prices, inflation and uncertainty about remittance inflows.
On Thursday, Gagan Thapa resigned as NC chair, taking moral responsibility for the party’s election loss. The UML’s unrepentant K P Oli does not share the same sentiment about who is responsible for his own party’s historic downfall.&nbsp;
NCP chair Pushpa Kamal Dahal, who was luckier than his cross-party cohort, is now a comparative relic in a Parliament largely comprised of freshmen and sophomore lawmakers.
But the NC, UML and NCP still control provincial and most municipal governments. The old parties could try to make things difficult for the RSP at the centre, but it is also an opportunity for them to clean up their act ahead of local elections next year.&nbsp;
Another test for the RSP will be dealing with a heavily-politicised klepto-bureaucracy which has to frontend its policy decisions. &nbsp;

People’s power

<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/ball-in-balen-s-court">Nepal’s newly-installed Prime Minister Balendra Shah</a> unveiled his Council of Ministers after taking the oath of office on Friday in Kathmandu.&nbsp; Besides Nepal's pre-existing problems, his team will immediately have to deal with the fallout of the West Asia conflict to satisfy an electorate impatient for change. The Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) won a majority in the 5 March election and capped the Cabinet size at 15. Shah, a structural engineer and musician, himself has taken charge of the Defence and Industry Ministries. There has been an attempt to make the Cabinet inclusive with women in five of the new portfolios.&nbsp; After much negotiation, the powerful Home Ministry, a bone of contention between Shah and RSP Chair Rabi Lamichhane, has gone to Sudan Gurung, a hitherto little-known figure who <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/who-or-what-is-hami-nepal">rose to prominence after the September GenZ protest</a> and won the election from Gorkha-2.&nbsp; Gurung will be in charge of Nepal’s internal security apparatus and maintaining law and order. And with Gurung, a close ally of the Prime Minister, in charge, some note the Home Ministry will be a hook for Shah if Lamichhane, with his share of controversies, steps out line.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260327090324_c7725ea5fb9ffbf96df25a7b3122520b7ae3ee10548aed3f37781a7e5440e51a.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20260327090324_c7725ea5fb9ffbf96df25a7b3122520b7ae3ee10548aed3f37781a7e5440e51a" data-rendition-name="original" width="1440" height="960" loading="lazy" alt="Balen Shah swearing in NT"> </figure>  Notable RSP leaders, including vice-chair DP Aryal, were said to have been vying for the portfolio.&nbsp; Gurung is the founder of the non-profit Hami Nepal, which worked primarily in earthquake relief in 2015, and emerged onto the national stage during negotiations to appoint Sushila Karki as interim PM after the unrest. He was also involved in key negotiations that cemented Balendra Shah and Rabi Lamichhane’s political partnership in the runup to the election.&nbsp; Most new Cabinet members are not just first-time ministers, but are also freshmen lawmakers. Many are experts in their fields. Finance Minister Swarnim Wagle is an <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-needs-to-rebrand-itself">economist </a>with degrees from the London School of Economics and Harvard, and was previously Chief Economic Advisor at the UNDP Regional Bureau for Asia and the Pacific, and also served in Nepal’s National Planning Commission.&nbsp; Previously a member of Nepali Congress, Wagle exited the party in 2023 following differences with top leadership, and joined the RSP. Wagle won a by-election from Tanahu-1 in 2023 and won again from the same constituency in this month’s election.&nbsp; Shishir Khanal, who heads RSP’s foreign affairs department, has been appointed Minister of Foreign Affairs. &nbsp;Khanal is co-founder of Teach For Nepal, was briefly Education Minister when the RSP was part of the the Pushpa Kamal Dahal-led coalition government in 2023.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260327090324_b1a670bac12e2bf4df955134f58c8de7718d48f6be4e1f2df7c7c52f82e36e42.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20260327090324_b1a670bac12e2bf4df955134f58c8de7718d48f6be4e1f2df7c7c52f82e36e42" data-rendition-name="original" width="1440" height="960" loading="lazy" alt="Balen Shah swearing in NT"> </figure>  Law Minister Sobita Gurung is a lawyer by profession and worked in governance and public policy before she was elected as the youngest MP in the 2022 election.&nbsp; Health Minister Nisha Mehta is a nurse and became a lawmaker under the Proportional Representation system in this election which swept the RSP to power with a near two-third majority.&nbsp; Education Minister Sasmit Pokharel, a first-time MP elected from Kathmandu-5, served as an aide to Balendra Shah when he was mayor of Kathmandu and a was member of the KMC City Planning Commission.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260327090324_5ed794d7bf0cac2844277521810225c4355746b9c3f7369f70cacc878c94641f.jpg" data-media-id="editor_5" data-image-id="20260327090324_5ed794d7bf0cac2844277521810225c4355746b9c3f7369f70cacc878c94641f" data-rendition-name="original" width="1440" height="960" loading="lazy" alt="Balen Shah swearing in NT"> </figure>  Biraj Bhakta Shrestha is Energy Minister, and also served as the Minister for Youth and Sports in the Dahal-led coalition government in 2024. Before joining RSP, Shrestha was elected to the Bagmati Provincial Assembly in the 2017 elections representing the r<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/rsp-s-activist-dna">eformist Bibeksheel Sajha Party</a>. He will immediately face the challenge of addressing the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/rough-road-ahead-for-new-nepal-rulers">impact of the West Asia war,</a> including rising petroleum prices and a shortage of cooking gas. Sita Badi, who was elected through the PR system, is Minister for Women, Children and Senior Citizens. She was born and brought up in the underserved and marginalised Badi community in Surkhet and has been advocating for the rights and welfare of women, children, and minority communities. Other ministers include RSP spokesperson Pratibha Rawal as Minister for Federal Affairs and General Administration as well as Land Management, and Gita Chaudhary as Minister for Agriculture, Sunil Lamsal is Physical Infrastrucutre, Transport, and Urban Development Minister, Khadka Raj (Ganesh) Paudel as Tourism and Civil Aviation Minister. Dipak Sah is the Labour and Employment Minister, and Bikram Timilsina is Communication Minister.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260327090324_b67c2d199d4897031583a5b7ec7ce43e88771167696e6161665eeb5fca25d3ed.jpg" data-media-id="editor_8" data-image-id="20260327090324_b67c2d199d4897031583a5b7ec7ce43e88771167696e6161665eeb5fca25d3ed" data-rendition-name="original" width="1440" height="960" loading="lazy" alt="Balen Shah swearing in NT"> </figure>  Meanwhile, RSP vice-chair DP Aryal, who many thought would be home minister because of his proximity with Rabi Lamichhane has been proposed as Speaker of the House.&nbsp; Aryal previously served two brief stints as the Minister of Labour when RSP was part of the RSP’s coalition governments in 2023 and 2024. As minister Aryal came <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/skeletons-in-the-cabinet-k5x6py1v">under scrutiny </a>for his involvement in an employment agency that was investigated for illegal acquisition of wealth in 2020. If appointed House Speaker, Aryal will be expected to play a neutral and non-partisan role in Parliamentary affairs. &nbsp; With the full Cabinet announced on Friday, Prime Minister Shah and his team now have their work cut out for them. &nbsp;The government’s first priority will be ensuring the safety and long-term security of the almost two million <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/migrant-workers-in-wartime">Nepalis living and working in the Gulf</a> amid the ongoing conflict in the region, and taking steps to cushion Nepal’s economy from the Israel-US war on Iran. The new leaders will also be tasked with implementing the findings of the Karki Commission report on the September violence that paved the way for the election and the rise of the RSP. &nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260327090324_69b36bc62737e44ade4080be36688f9c2f92201356e1df2072cef8ecc6a9be5d.jpg" data-media-id="editor_11" data-image-id="20260327090324_69b36bc62737e44ade4080be36688f9c2f92201356e1df2072cef8ecc6a9be5d" data-rendition-name="original" width="1440" height="960" loading="lazy" alt="Balen Shah swearing in NT"> <figcaption>Snapshots from PM Balen Shah's swearing-in ceremony</figcaption> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260327090324_69b36bc62737e44ade4080be36688f9c2f92201356e1df2072cef8ecc6a9be5d.jpg" data-media-id="editor_12" data-image-id="20260327090324_69b36bc62737e44ade4080be36688f9c2f92201356e1df2072cef8ecc6a9be5d" data-rendition-name="original" width="1440" height="960" loading="lazy" alt="Balen Shah swearing in NT"> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260327090324_8646d490883154f696bcdc6e2375084419f2eefaaf0ef0c7e2710aa6e2d94a8a.jpg" data-media-id="editor_13" data-image-id="20260327090324_8646d490883154f696bcdc6e2375084419f2eefaaf0ef0c7e2710aa6e2d94a8a" data-rendition-name="original" width="1440" height="960" loading="lazy" alt="Balen Shah swearing in NT"> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260327090324_89d17d6584593be1eb23eb1d4872c3b7c600e1620f3aca48dbff4838364a1e3c.jpg" data-media-id="editor_14" data-image-id="20260327090324_89d17d6584593be1eb23eb1d4872c3b7c600e1620f3aca48dbff4838364a1e3c" data-rendition-name="original" width="1440" height="960" loading="lazy" alt="Balen Shah swearing in NT"> </figure>  &nbsp;Full list of ministers: Prime Minsiter: Balendra Shah Home Minister: Sudan Gurung Finance Minister: Swarnim Wagle Foreign Affairs Minister: Shishir Khanal Law, Justice and Parliamentary Affairs Ministry: Sobita Gautam Energy, Water and Irrigation Minister: Biraj Bhakta Shrestha Education Minister: Sasmit Pokharel Physical Infrastrucutre, Transport, and Urban Development Minister: Sunil Lamsal Communication and Information Ministry: Bikram Timilsina General Administration Minister: Pratibha Rawal Women, Children and Senior Citizens Minister: Sita Badi Health and Population Minister: Nisha Mehta Agriculture Minister: Gita Chaudhary Culture, Tourism and Civil Aviation Minister: Khadka Raj (Ganesh) Paudel&nbsp; Labour Minister: Dipak Sah

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Nepal swears in new Cabinet