<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111124/637217729c7e80680e0ba9e9jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2048" height="1536"/><figcaption>Maya Devi temple. Photo: SAHINA SHRESTHA</figcaption></figure>The story goes that when the Buddha was approaching his mahaparinirvana at age 80, he advised his faithful disciple Ananda that there were four great places of pilgrimage associated with his life.The locations of the Buddha’s enlightenment, Bodh Gaya and Sarnath where he first taught the dharma were identified early on. But the mystery of where he passed away, Kushinagar, and where he was born and grew up, Kapilvastu and Lumbini, were not solved until the end of the 19th century.Over the years, there was speculation about where the Shakyamuni Buddha was actually born – even though 2,600 years ago there were no modern nation state boundaries in the Subcontinent. But a finding from 3rd century BCE helped clear the doubt.That was when Emperor Ashoka, following the devastating battle of Kalinga, set out on a pilgrimage to Lumbini with Upagupta. There he erected a sandstone pillar surmounted with a horse finial atop an inverted lotus, and an inscription in Pali to commemorate his visit in 249 BCE.The two Ashokan inscriptions, one in Nigali Sagar near Tilaurakot referring to Konakamuni (a past Buddha) and another in Lumbini found in the 19th century showed that in the Mauryan period, the place where the pillar stands was considered to be the birthplace of the Buddha.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111124/637217759c7e80680e0ba9eajpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1228" height="834">Over the centuries, the site saw the pilgrimage by many Chinese monks, Faxian in the 5th century and Xuanzang in the 7th century being the two famous ones. Their accounts of the travels were later used by antiquarians in British India to locate the sites of the Buddha’s birth and where he grew up.But the popularity of the site waned until it was rediscovered in 1896, and excavations began. These days those visiting the Maya Devi temple in <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/lumbini-is-not-a-buddhist-disneyland/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Lumbini</a>, may not be aware of what they are seeing inside the complex.Excavations in Lumbini have revealed many structures that were built over the centuries, one of the most sacred being the Shakya tank, a pond where the Buddha’s mother Queen Maya Devi is believed to have taken a bath before giving birth.Maya Devi is believed to have given birth to Siddhartha Gautam in 623 BC, while she was on her way to her parents’ home in Devdaha on a palanquin. She gave birth standing, while clutching to the branch of a sal tree. She died a week later, and the baby was raised by his aunt, Prajapati.A 1,800-year-old stone sculpture, eroded by centuries of worship and a marker stone found in 1995 at the nativity site locate the exact spot in Lumbini’s sacred garden where the Buddha was born.Archaeologists have also uncovered ruins of monasteries dating from 3rd century BC to the 7th century AD, as well as of stupas, some built much more recently 600 years ago.In 2011, an international team led by Robin Coningham of Durham University and Kosh Prasad Acharya, the former Director General of Nepal’s Department of Archaeology  uncovered remnants of a wooden structure beneath the pavement in the Maya Devi Temple.When analysed, it looked like a tree shrine and was dated to around 550 BC, giving historians new evidence to consider as they attempt to reconstruct the Buddha’s life.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111124/637217789c7e80680e0ba9ebjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2048" height="1536"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>But the story of the Buddha is much more than just of Lumbini alone. If Nepal is to commemorate more holistically the Buddha’s life, it has to have an integrated approach and include other sites over the Greater Lumbini Area spanning Rupandehi, Nawalparasi and Kapilvastu, which have many archaeological sites, some of which are directly associated with the Buddha’s life.In<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/buddhas-birthday-in-his-birthplace/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"> Tilaurakot-Kapilvastu</a>, the city where the Buddha is believed to have spent his first 29 years as Prince Siddhartha Gautam, and from where he left on his journey to spiritual enlightenment, archaeologists recently used ground penetrating radar to detect a palatial walled complex, street grid of a city, a brick wall tank and a monastic compound, and other historical objects.Read Also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/drone-view-of-lumbinis-monsoon-greenery/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Drone view of Lumbini’s monsoon greenery </a>In 249 BC, Emperor Ashoka erected an inscribed pillar commemorating his veneration and expansion of the nirvana stupa of the Konakmuni Buddha. In 1895, two fragments of the pillar were discovered: the upper portion was half submerged in Nilgi Sagar pond and the lower part was buried. Since the plinth on which it once stood is missing, the original location remains unknown, but some scholars believe that it was erected at the birthplace of the Konakmuni Buddha.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111124/6372177b9c7e80680e0ba9ecjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1249" height="883">Kudan is another site of historical significance. Some scholars have suggested this may be the site of Nigrodharama, the banyan grove where Gautam Buddha met his father years after his departure from Kapilvastu and where his son was ordained a monk. Gotihawa, is considered the birthplace of the Krakkuchanda Buddha, another one of the earlier Buddhas. It has a large brick stupa and a stump of an Ashokan pillar. Unfortunately, most of the pillar is gone, so it is not possible to know what was written.The Ramagram stupa which is 10m high and 23.5m in diameter is on the tentative list for the World Heritage status, and is believed to be one of the original sites housing the mortal remains of the Buddha. According to ancient scripts, the seven other stupas were opened by Ashoka and the relics distributed – but the naga prevented Ashoka from opening the stupa here.There are other sites that have been identified in the three surrounding districts. Building a circuit with all the culturally and spiritually important places and telling the story correctly can help solve a problem (see below) Lumbini has been facing for a long time.<h4>The Masterplan</h4><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111124/6372177e9c7e80680e0ba9edjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1400" height="502"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>The challenge Lumbini faces now is how to cope with the larger numbers of pilgrims and tourists visiting the holy site. Before the pandemic, while the number of visitors in Lumbini was high, they usually came in from India’s Buddhist circuit and only spent a few hours before heading back.The infrastructure was poor, there were not too many hotels with proper facilities. Lumbini was difficult to get to. Now, an international airport is being inaugurated just 10km to the east, and a new influx of visitors is expected.Before the pandemic, 1.7 million pilgrims visited Lumbini by land in a year, of these 300,000 were from outside of Nepal and India. But on average, they spent less than an hour in Lumbini.For centuries after Ashoka visited and commemorated the nativity site, Lumbini was retaken by the surrounding jungles. It was only in the 1890s that British explorers looking for hardwood timber for railway sleepers came upon the Ashokan pillar.In 1967, the United Nations Secretary-General U Thant, a devout Buddhist from Burma, toured Lumbini on elephant-back, and is reported to have wept on seeing the condition of the birthplace of the Buddha.Back in New York, U Thant set up a UN committee to turn Lumbini into an international centre for peace. Noted Japanese architect <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=9848#.Yn8SBOhBxPZ" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Kenzō Tange</a>, who had designed the Hiroshima Museum, was hired to draw up a <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/u-thant-kenzo-tange-and-the-buddhas-birthplace/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">master plan</a>.Nepal established the Lumbini Development Trust (LDT) which is implementing Kenzō Tange’s master plan and includes a monastic zone, a library and Lumbini Village for visitors. A canal bisects the site with a museum and visitor centre on the north end and the Maya Devi Temple on the south.The eastern monastic zone was set aside for Theravada Buddhism and the western for Mahayana Buddhism. The master plan is still being broadly followed and is nearing completion, but structures are already showing signs of disrepair.Even the visitor’s centre in Lumbini is in a sorry state, there are no information boards that tell the visitors about the site.“Our expectations are high when it comes to Lumbini but the infrastructure is lacking,” says Purushottam Aryal, an entrepreneur who runs Buddhagram, a robotic museum outside of Lumbini gate. “We have guests who complain about the lack of restroom and having only one gate to purchase tickets.”Despite nearly 2 million annual visitors pre-pandemic, only about 2% of the pilgrims visited the other sacred sites from the Buddha’s life like Niglihawa, Gotihawa, Kudan and Ramagram, either because they are unaware of them or because they are too difficult to get to.Currently, most international visitors to Lumbini come from India as part of the Buddhist circuit that includes Bodh Gaya, Sarnath, Kushinagar, where facilities and connectivity are better. Pilgrims preferred travelling through India to Lumbini rather than flying to Kathmandu and then making their way to the sacred site.“Nepalis rarely hire guides. Indian tourists come in with their own guides from India, who narrate their own version of the story of Lumbini. If they hire local guides they can get authentic information. Why would anyone stay for long if all they do is go in and out?” asks Mahesh Pati Mishra, a local guide in Lumbini.The upcoming Lumbini Museum will fill this gap. The existing museum is being upgraded and expanded to international standards, that tells the story of the Buddha, says the museum’s Sumnima Udas.Located at the entrance of the Sacred Garden, the Lumbini Museum aims to help transform the sacred place as a major spiritual and cultural centre while setting a standard for how art and heritage can be preserved, presented and promoted.The museum has brought in talent from Nepal and around the world to make it a state-of-the art project to educate and promote the Buddha’s message of compassion and peace, and re-imagine U Thant’s original goal inside the cylindrical modules designed by Kenzō Tange.Explains Udas: “There are different kinds of museums, this is not going to be a museum with just statues. It will be about the storytelling. And it doesn’t have to be huge, it can just be a beautiful little gem where once you go in you leave with a better sense of what had happened in Lumbini, why the birth story matters, and what we as human beings can learn from it.”Read Also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/u-thant-kenzo-tange-and-the-buddhas-birthplace/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">U Thant, Kenzō Tange and the Buddha’s birthplace</a>, Kunda Dixit<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111124/637217819c7e80680e0ba9eejpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="818"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Lumbini over Time2,645 years agoThe birth of Siddhartha Gautama in a sal grove in Lumbini while his mother is enroute to Devdaha2,575 years agoThe Buddha dies at the age of 803rd Century BCEEmperor Ashoka visits Lumbini to commemorate the nativity site with a stone pillar5th Century BCEChinese monks Faxian and Xuanzang visit Lumbini and find it in ruins1312King of Jumla, Ripu Malla, carves graffiti with his name on Ashoka’s pillar 1896Ashoka’s pillar is rediscovered by General Khadga Shamshere, Governor of Tansen, and German archaeologist Anton Fuhrer1899Indian archaeologist Purna Chandra Mukherji finds the eroded nativity sculpture1932-39Archaeological excavations by General Keshar Shamsher reveal ancient monasteries and temples1956King Mahendra visits Lumbini1959UN Secretary-General Dag Hammarskjöld visits Lumbini during trip to Nepal1967UN Secretary-General U Thant visits Lumbini, and pledges to develop it as an international peace centre1972Kenzō Tange is commissioned to create a master plan, which is completed in 19781995Department of Archaeology excavates the marker stone at exact spot where the Buddha was born1997UNESCO declares Lumbini a World Heritage Site2003Mayadevi Temple opens to the public for the first time on Buddha Jayanti<h4>Pilgrim’s progress in Lumbini</h4><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111124/637217839c7e80680e0ba9efjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="900" height="600"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>The retreat of Covid-19 and the inauguration of the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/bhairawas-new-airport-already-too-small/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Gautam Buddha International airport</a> on 16 May has breathed new hope to Lumbini, which had seen almost no pilgrim and tourist traffic since 2020.As many as 15 new hotels were planned in anticipation of the new airport, but had to halt construction when the lockdowns hit. Some of the older hotels here were sold to new owners and the Lumbini Development Trust that manages the sacred site lost significant revenue.“Many new hotels were being built because we expected a surge of traffic with the new airport,” says Lila Mani Sharma of Hotel Association of Lumbini. “They had taken bank loans and because they had already invested so much, they could not abandon the project.” Now, construction activity has picked up again in the 10km stretch from the airport to Lumbini, as well as on the road linking the airport to the Bhairawa-Butwal highway.The pandemic not only hit the hotel sector but also the farmers who supplied produce to the hotels, guides, travel agencies and others who relied on the sector.Laxmi Choudhari of Mahilawar is looking to inaugurate his new homestay on the auspicious Buddha Jayanti, the very day that the new airport is being inaugurated.“I have been working in the hotel business for a while and have wanted to do something on my own. The new airport will surely help bring more guests and as homestays we can provide a more authentic experience for them,” says Choudhari.Lumbini’s Guide Association and Hotel Association are also cautiously optimistic. “If more people come directly to Nepal first instead of crossing over from India, it will be good for the local business. They will spend more time here and include more places around Lumbini in their itinerary,” says Sharma.But according to industry experts, just having an international airport does not guarantee anything. Says Anu Lama, tourism specialist at ICIMOD, “There has to be an integrated approach bringing together the cultural, spiritual and natural aspect of Lumbini and involving the local communities. We have to tell and sell our story.”Read Also:<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/bhairawas-new-airport-already-too-small/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Bhairawa airport already to small</a><a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/protecting-lumbinis-rare-cranes/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Protecting Lumbini’s rare cranes</a>, Rajendra N Suwal

Sahina Shrestha

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Telling the story of Buddha’s Lumbini

The monsoon has got bad press because Nepal’s tourism operators actively told visitors to avoid <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/managing-the-monsoon?%2F">the rainy season</a>. It is time to change that. The reason can be found right here in the vast alpine meadows of Central Nepal where this time of year you can walk on velvet grass of pastures abloom with delicate pink, red and yellow flowers as the mist rolls up the valley. There is no sound except the hum of bumble bees. &nbsp;&nbsp; There are dozens of places across high Nepal called Chaurikharka, which means yak pasture. But this particular Chaurikharka in Rukum East located at an altitude of 4,000m stands out for its serene beauty, rustic charm and bucolic setting. There is just the occasional chime of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/when-yaks-go-so-does-culture">yak bells</a> in the distance, and the sharp whistle of herders corralling sheep. &nbsp;&nbsp; The grass shoots are so fragile that one hesitates to step on them, the rounded ridges appear and quickly vanish in waves of mist. With the<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/before-the-next-monsoon"> arrival of monsoon</a>, these meadows are a soothing shade of green dotted with millions of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/review/the-anatomy-of-a-flower?%2F=">multi-coloured flowers</a>. Until very recently, it took a week or so to hike up to places like Chaurikharka, but with the expansion of the road network even to these far-flung mountains in the lap of Dhaulagiri, they are much more accessible. It is just a three-hour uphill from the Mid-Hill Highway on the border between Baglung and Rukum East.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250802130828_a0b06b494d751b2144ffbbf10894ea64b29e8aed844bc8c66171783abfaf4e16.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20250802130828_a0b06b494d751b2144ffbbf10894ea64b29e8aed844bc8c66171783abfaf4e16" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1365" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon"> </figure>  Purists would say that such easy access devalues the sanctity of these remote high meadows, but it also means more people will be moved to treasure the experience, appreciate <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/natures-fragile-gift-to-nepal">the value of nature </a>so they can take steps to protect it.&nbsp; To be sure, the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/deadly-monsoon-in-nepal-turns-deadlier">monsoon season can be challenging for road travel</a>. The roads are rough even at the best of times, and in the monsoon they become muddy and treacherous, often blocked by<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/monsoon-deluge-in-nepal"> landslides</a>. But that could be precisely the kind of adventure that the more intrepid visitors crave. Improved road connectivity has already made Chaurikharka and places like Badimallika &nbsp;and other sacred lakes in the mountains of western Nepal popular with domestic tourists. What is driving this traffic is the urge to go to exotic new places and share videos and selfies on social media. Several of Nepal’s travel vloggers have visited Chaurikharka and popularised the place, enticing followers on TikTok or YouTube to retrace their footsteps. But even as they become more popular, these fragile and once-remote places should be protected from over-tourism.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110736_f97110b7cdc3e7f80d5877690948fc9f4c95a09c583deb23b07355491e6c5446.jpg" data-media-id="editor_8" data-image-id="20250731110736_f97110b7cdc3e7f80d5877690948fc9f4c95a09c583deb23b07355491e6c5446" data-rendition-name="original" width="1083" height="699" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon NT"> </figure>  <h2>INCREASING FOOTFALL</h2> Chaurikharka is located in Bhume Rural Municipality of East Rukum, near the scenic valley of Dhorpatan in Baglung district. Even in the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/monsoon-culture">middle of the monsoon</a>, there is a steady stream of Nepali hikers trooping to these high pastures – especially during festival days like Saune Sankranti which this year was on 17 July and actually marks the auspicious beginning of the monsoon here. “This year the rains have not been as heavy and there have been some clear mornings when we could see everything from Dhaulagiri to Machapuchre,” says Khageswar Bhandari, who trekked up here from the road. “The flowers, the greenery and the snowy mountain views make this an incredibly unique place.”&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250802130824_1b9e26f2e9853fdfe69154bb42a7c9ea6da4bf4940efc1da99b304dcfbd7d3d9.jpg" data-media-id="editor_10" data-image-id="20250802130824_1b9e26f2e9853fdfe69154bb42a7c9ea6da4bf4940efc1da99b304dcfbd7d3d9" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1152" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon"> </figure>  Chaurikharka is worthwhile to get to in any season, but it has a different charm during the monsoon. Word has spread and because it is now easy to get to from Baglung or even Pokhara, people have been flocking here.&nbsp; “Holidays and Saturdays see the largest crowds, with up to 500 visitors every day,” says ward chair Mankaji Pun of Bhume.&nbsp; There was a time not too long ago when local herders brought sheep, goats, cows, buffaloes, horses, and mules to graze here during the monsoon. Although there are still livestock around, animals have been replaced by visitors taking selfies. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-monsoon-and-nature-s-arithmetic">The monsoon, and nature’s arithmetic</a>, Tom Robertson Ward Chair Pun says infrastructure development is his main priority. A foot trail to Chaurikharka was built last year by the Tourism Division Office in Kohalpur, but access via the Raniwas-Koipa road section still remains challenging.&nbsp; “If we get more budget, we can improve the road and facilities to make Chaurikharka the main tourist attraction of this region,” says Bhume Municipality Chair Hom Prakash Shrestha. “After that, we hope to promote Chaurikharka as a top tourist spot.”&nbsp; Economic activity is also picking up with the arrival of visitors, but there seems to be a need to manage the makeshift sheds made of corrugated sheets that spoil the beauty of the place. Tea shops and lodges are also available but facilities are basic. Kuldeep Neupane took a three-day trip from Ghorahi in Dang to visit Chaurikharka recently, and says: “This is an ideal trip to make a quick getaway and let nature recharge your mind and body. And it is much more fun with a tent, to watch the sunrise over the Himalaya or the mist blowing in.”

Visit Nepal in the monsoon

Two weeks ago, Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli announced jubilantly on social media that Nepal had achieved a historic annual growth of 81.8% in exports. He was right. Nepal’s trade did take a great leap forward compared to last year. But the dramatic rise was mainly due to processed soya bean oil.&nbsp; However, Nepal does not produce the edible oil it exports. In fact, the soya and palm oil that make up 44% of total exports are imported from Southeast Asia and South America, and simply re-exported, mostly to India.&nbsp; Under the SAFTA (South Asian Free Trade Area) Agreement, Nepal can export products to India duty-free if it has at least 30% value-added. Nepal’s traders have taken advantage of SAFTA even though the edible oils they export do not reach that value addition threshold. “The 30% value addition requirement is often only on paper,” says former commerce secretary Purushottam Ojha. “It is clear that simply packaging edible oils in Nepal does not fulfil the terms of the trade agreement.” Prime Minister Oli is aware of this, and even called Nepal’s export figures “fake” at an earlier event. The government is relying on other iffy figures to suggest that Nepal’s economy is strong and getting stronger. For example, the value of imports rose by 13.25% in 2024-25 compared to the previous fiscal year.&nbsp; Some of it was due to a jump in electric vehicle imports worth Rs 31.76 billion, but mostly it was because more wholesale soya oil was imported to be re-packaged and sold in India. The very fact that the government boasts about increased imports is an indication of how much it relies on taxing them for revenue. Touting such trade figures cannot be the basis to claim an economic rebound.&nbsp; “A jump in the value of imports can be interpreted as an increase in purchasing power, but it is not evidence of a stronger economy,” says economist Keshav Acharya. “Even though imports have increased, Nepal's domestic production and productive capacity have not improved.” Nepal Rastra Bank's semi-annual economic activity study report shows that industrial production was down in the first six months of the last fiscal year. This despite an increase in the number of new industries registered and investment commitments. Out of the Rs70.2 billion proposed foreign investment, Nepal received only Rs17.9 billion last year.&nbsp; Meanwhile, the rate of capital formation was limited to 24% last year, which is lower than the year before, suggesting that new investment, job creation and economic expansion all declined. If domestic production does not improve in relation to this year’s inflated trade figures, the outflow will put pressure on foreign exchange reserves like it did three years ago. At that time, Nepal borrowed from the IMF under its Extended Credit Facility Program to kickstart the economy.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025080710084_2cdaaa5795828c4a7de93a0604ba884ef0a8b8f24cccd939f6c24e279ab6058f.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="2025080710084_2cdaaa5795828c4a7de93a0604ba884ef0a8b8f24cccd939f6c24e279ab6058f" data-rendition-name="original" width="1633" height="723" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal's bubble economy NT"> <figcaption>Source: NEPAL RASTRA BANK</figcaption> </figure>  The macroeconomy is on firm footing with foreign exchange reserves at a comfortable Rs2,520 billion in May, up 23% from last year. This was largely due to remittances, and partly due to a falling NPR exchange rate. Real estate transactions and the stock market index have also been climbing as a result of government policies to revive the sector.&nbsp; However, former executive director of Nepal Rastra Bank Nar Bahadur Thapa cautions: “This is not organic growth, it is the result of deliberate policy decisions to relax rules on real estate and stock markets transactions.” In reality, the sharp rise in land prices have increased the cost of production, and excessive monetisation of the real estate has become the main source of Nepal’s economic woes. The central bank has announced a slew of new policies, shifting the terms of loan repayment for industrialists and entrepreneurs, reducing interest rates, and injecting more working capital — all designed to inject adrenaline into the real estate and stock market sectors.&nbsp; When he was governor, Mahaprasad Adhikari made several financial reforms during the latter half of his tenure to stimulate the economy, including tightening credit flow.&nbsp; By the last fiscal year, additional financial reforms had resulted in a credit expansion rate of around 8%. As the pace of credit expansion slows, real estate prices have started to fall. This is actually beneficial to the economy, because it lays the foundation for improvements in land-related entrepreneurship, production, and the construction sector. Just because real estate and the stock market transactions increase, it does not indicate an economic turnaround — especially when manufacturing and productive sector continues to languish.&nbsp; “It is foolish to believe that real estate and the stock market have magically revived our economy. Agriculture employs more than half of the population, but it is in decline. Investment in the productive sector has not increased, and job creation has not increased.” Two years ago, Nepal’s industrialists, business leaders, and political leadership predicted a recession amidst a sluggish business, declining market demand, large-scale job loss, and a shrinking real estate and share market.&nbsp; Still, the economy grew by 3.36% in fiscal year 2023/24. In fact, Nepal’s economy has grown nominally over the last two decades even when all sectors of the economy are in decline.&nbsp; Says Keshav Acharya: “The growth in trade, real estate, and the stock market are bubbles. The real economy remains stagnant.”

Nepal’s bubble economy

Nepal is graduating to become a developing country on 24 November 2026 after half-century in the Least Developed Country (LDC) category. By 2030, the country hopes to transition to middle-income status.&nbsp; Everone from Prime Minister K P Oli have boasted that this is a matter of national pride, and will have a multiplier impact on trade and economy.&nbsp; But will it make any difference to the average Nepali? Not unless improved governance <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/why-invest-in-nepal">spurs investment and creates jobs</a>.&nbsp; Countries need to meet at least two of the three criteria in two consecutive triennial reviews to be eligible for graduation from LDC. Nepal has consistently met the thresholds for the Human Assets Index (HAI) and the Economic and Environmental Vulnerability Index (EVI) in 2015, 2018, and 2021. But Nepal was recommended for graduation before meeting the per capita <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/nepals-great-income-divide">Gross National Income (GNI)</a> threshold of $1,306. “A major implication of LDC graduation is the loss of preferential market access available through Generalised System of Preferences (GSP) and other arrangements,” explains economist Sameer Khatiwada. “But over two-thirds of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-doesnt-produce-its-2-biggest-export-items">Nepal’s exports</a> are to India, and the preferential market access to India is through a bilateral trade agreement. This has nothing to do with our LDC status.”  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250815060832_f5eabe7628a8cdf84f33b25d7cef3c4dc8913a26d8e5b253ea52a36e176b8a85.jpg" data-media-id="editor_3" data-image-id="20250815060832_f5eabe7628a8cdf84f33b25d7cef3c4dc8913a26d8e5b253ea52a36e176b8a85" data-rendition-name="original" width="640" height="470" loading="lazy" alt="LDC graduation "> </figure>  Furthermore, a provision under the South Asian Free Trade Area (SAFTA) allows Nepal to export to India duty-free if the items are at least 30% value-added. Nepali traders take advantage of this by re-exporting edible oils without meeting that requirement, falsely boosting Nepal’s exports.“ Following graduation from LDC, the value addition threshold might increase to 40%,” says Kalpana Khanal of the Policy Research Institute. “This is supposed to work to our advantage, because on paper value addition inherently means <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/multimedia/staying-home-to-create-jobs">job creation at home</a>.” But Nepal’s exports to other major destinations will face <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-and-the-us-india-tariff-tiff">tariff increases</a> with the graduation. A South Asia Watch on Trade, Economics and Environment (SWATEE) study shows that while tariff increase in the US market is relatively low (see page 5) it is considerably higher in Europe. The International Trade Centre (ITC) in a 2022 study also estimated that graduation could result in a 4.3% decline in Nepal’s projected exports, but this is excluding the impact of changes in ‘rules of origin’ provisions in preference-granting countries such as the UK and Europe.&nbsp; Nepal’s top export to these preference-granting countries is <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=1482">carpets</a>, and will not be impacted, but other items such as textiles and apparel will be heavily affected due to higher cost of production. The impact will felt mostly by small and medium enterprises which represent the largest share of exports to LDC-specific preference-granting countries. As for the service exports, Nepal never really made use of the World Trade Organization’s LDC services waiver anyway, hence the effect will be minimal, if any. There is also concern about Nepal’s graduation at a time when the global economy is topsy-turvy, amidst <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/turning-point-in-us-india-relations">tariff wars and conflicts</a>. This affects Nepalis abroad directly and may impact <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/more-remittance-more-than-remittance">remittances </a>which hit $11 billion in 2024. In comparison, Nepal only received $350 million in foreign loans and grants last year.&nbsp; Tourism arrivals have finally reached pre-pandemic levels, but bad publicity about pollution, poor infrastructure and bureaucratic hurdles hinder further growth. Manufacturing continues to struggle, while hydropower and the IT sector have taken off.&nbsp; “Look at data -- <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/tourism-needs-a-new-push">tourism arrivals</a> are up, spending is up, IT exports are up, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/why-nepal-needs-to-restore-ev-tax-subsidy">EV sales </a>are up, Europe still needs 85-90 million skilled workers. We are sitting on $16 billion in cash reserves, our balance of payment, foreign exchange reserve, tax to GDP ratio, credit flow are all positive, we have to build on these factors,” says Sujeev Shakya of the Nepal Economic Forum. He adds: “Our mindset creates negativity to promote rent-seeking behaviour, but this cynicism will go away after 2026 with LDC graduation. We must deal with data, look at trends, and projects which will bring in <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/from-the-nepali-press/why-there-is-no-foreign-investment-in-nepal">international investments</a>.” Khanal agrees that investment is not dependent on<a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/backside/Nepal-not-the-least-developed-country,306"> LDC status</a>. The factors that that affect investment are policy stability, a strong legal framework, market potential and ease of doing business. She adds, “That is where our focus needs to be, and we need to retain <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/diaspora-diaries/migrant-worker-returns-to-create-work-at-home?fbclid=IwAR09xJfsClCwn8uRVAmz28CU658vdKpuyDwB_b1sNlvKtAFFnSldnA0JS2g">Nepalis with jobs at home</a> for our sustained growth.” After 2026, financing support from donors and aid agencies could be affected and Nepal will no longer be able to access Least Developed Countries Fund (LDCF) to adapt to the impacts of climate change. But the Global Environment Fund and Green Climate Fund will still be available.“ LDC status does not determine bilateral development aid, that is usually driven by broader <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/looking-beyond-two-boulders">geopolitical considerations</a>,” says Sameer Khatiwada. “The World Bank and Asian Development Bank, which provide concessional loans to Nepal, it is determined mainly by per capita income, not LDC status.” &nbsp;However, Nepal may lose some concessional terms for loans. Nepal is currently a lower-middle-income country as per the World Bank in the bracket for GNI between $1,036 and $4,045. The country is already receiving more loans than grants and in July the World Bank increased its interest rate on loans by 100% from 0.75 to 1.5%. “All this means that the impact of LDC graduation for Nepal might not be as earth-shattering as some tend to think. Countries that have recently graduated, such as Botswana and the Maldives, have shows that graduation is just a step in a country’s development path,” says Khatiwada. Sujeev Shakya also sees the glass as half full, explaining that LDC graduation is just a stepping stone if Nepal has the right policies in place. He adds, “Nepal’s biggest advantage is our<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/investing-in-people"> working age population</a> and we have investments coming in. These aided by how adaptive we are as a society are the very foundations on which Nepal will grow.”

Not poor, but not rich

The final investigation report on the crash of a Saurya Airlines jet on 24 July 2024 at Kathmandu airport has revealed flaws in the carrier’s technical operation procedures, poor monitoring by the Civil Aviation Authority of Nepal (CAAN) and gaps in the airport’s emergency response. Eighteen people including a child were killed, and only the captain survived as the plane plunged seconds after takeoff, crashing within the airport perimeter. This was the latest in a series of aircraft accidents in previous years, and further tarnished Nepal’s already poor aviation safety record and contributed to the country being retained in the EU’s air safety list. &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; The circumstances in the Saurya crash were different from the Yeti Airlines crash in Pokhara in January 2022 that killed all 72 on board, and two Tara Air crashes in February 2016 and May 2022 on approach to Jomsom that together claimed 45 lives. However, all four tragedies were a result of negligence of carriers and crew, failure to follow procedures, regulatory slackness, and overconfidence. The Saurya crash, especially, was a glaring example of how an ailing airline broke its own rules to allow passengers, including non-employees, a joy ride to Pokhara on a maintenance ferry flight. CRASH REPORT The Final Investigation Report prepared by the Aircraft Accident Investigation Commission and released on the first anniversary of the crash last week carried a long list of rules that were ignored or broken, and of regulatory failure. The first mistake was to cram spares, tools and inflammable chemicals needed for the aircraft’s C-Check in Pokhara into the cargo hold flouting its own ground handling procedures.&nbsp; There was no check-in of passengers, some of whom were not even employees – even though regulations say only flight and maintenance crew should be on board a maintenance positioning flight. Many brought their own luggage into the plane and stored it unsecured in the cabin. There was no flight attendant to give a safety briefing to passengers. The load and trim charts given to the flight crew were rough estimates, and the total takeoff weight of the plane was 18,300kg plus or minus 200 kg. That would still have been all right, but there was a glaring mistake in the speedchart Saurya pilots were using to calculate the minimum takeoff speed (known as VR), and it had been wrong ever since the 21-year-old aircraft entered service with the airline in 2017. FAULTY DATA&nbsp; The Commission probed Flight Data Recorder inputs from previous takeoffs of the Canadian-built CRJ200-LR in 2023-2024 and found that the undetected error in the speedchart had caused the plane to pitch up at an abnormal rotation rate at least 18 times on previous takeoffs.&nbsp; Any rotation rate more than 3°/sec is regarded as unusual. But on at least two occasions, this aircraft with tail number 9N-AME had rotation rates of 5.8°/sec and 5.5°/sec, the second one was when the pilot who survived was flying in March 2024.&nbsp; On this particular day, the plane’s rotation rate was 6.5°/sec, causing it to go into a deep stall soon after takeoff, the Commission report said. Essentially, the plane was not flying fast enough down the runway to take off safely.&nbsp; It is not yet clear whether excess weight, unsecured luggage, wrong centre of gravity were also factors, but relying on a faulty speedchart for the given takeoff weight, the captain flying pulled back on the yoke before the plane had reached takeoff speed and at a pitch angle that was too steep. The investigation report says the plane then went into a deep stall and started banking right with the stick shaking. At this point, the flight officer on the right hand seat is heard on the cockpit voice recorder saying: “Whoa, whoa, whoa. Sir, Sir, Sir…” It then banked left before the pilot flying turned the plane sharply to the right again in an evasive action to avoid the parking aprons of the international and domestic terminals. Had he not done so, there would have been a disaster of a much greater magnitude at Kathmandu airport that day. The plane scraped the runway with its right wingtip, collided with a container having helicopter spare parts, and plunged into a gully east of the runway, exploding in a fireball. The investigation also noted that the impact forces seemed to be survivable for some occupants. The fire trucks took unnecessarily long to reach the site even though it was inside the airport perimeter. The absence of an ICAO-standard runway strip, inadequate rescue drills, lack of training, and a blocked emergency service gate leading to the crash site were cited as other factors. &nbsp;&nbsp; <h2>Timestamp of a Disaster</h2>  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110724_39cdd04693994ce6e55a5b302905c0fa4884fe85bed21ff0779bb1439f3a5725.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20250731110724_39cdd04693994ce6e55a5b302905c0fa4884fe85bed21ff0779bb1439f3a5725" data-rendition-name="original" width="778" height="826" loading="lazy" alt="Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy NT"> </figure>  11:10:34 - The Saurya Airlines CRJ200 on the takeoff roll from runway 02. It had a takeoff weight of about 18,300kg, but the pilot’s speedcard had a previously undetected mistake about the minimum takeoff speed. 11:10:55 -The plane with tail number 9N-AME goes into deep stall soon after takeoff because it does not have enough speed to lift its weight. The plane also has an abnormally steep nose-up attitude.&nbsp; 11:11:03 - Without enough speed to generate lift, the plane banks right, then left and right again in CCTV photos taken from the domestic apron (below). If it had not banked right, it could have hit the aprons and terminal buildings. Seen parked is Saurya’s other CRJ200 with tail number 9N-ANM.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110732_608132f7225c649125cca2691dd6a6bf930984c5b359e888d7ad9e5eacce3afd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20250731110732_608132f7225c649125cca2691dd6a6bf930984c5b359e888d7ad9e5eacce3afd" data-rendition-name="original" width="770" height="555" loading="lazy" alt="Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy NT"> </figure>  11:11:08 - The plane scrapes the runway with its right wingtip, and falls into the gully. The captain is thrown off the left side of the cockpit and survives. 11:11:15: Plane explodes in a fireball inside the airport perimeter. Firefighters take time to reach the site because of lack of access road and a blocked gate. Read the full investigation report <a href="https://www.tourism.gov.np/files/9N-AME%20AIC%20Final%20Report.pdf">here</a>.

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Not poor, but not rich

Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy