<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110919118/636bed6d4b0ad905ca02eee5jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1365" height="2048"/><figcaption></figcaption></figure>Interview by Project Syndicate with Kishore Mahbubani, a former Singaporean diplomat and now distinguished fellow at the Asia Research Institute of the National University of Singapore about the rise of China. He also responds to questions about the conclusions from his new book Has China Won? The Chinese Challenge to American Primacy, and a particular one that has relevance for Nepal on his advice for the leaders of countries that are likely to get caught in the crossfire of the Sino-American rivalry.--Project Syndicate: You’ve <a href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/onpoint/world-order-lagging-economic-shifts-by-kishore-mahbubani-2019-12" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.project-syndicate.org/onpoint/world-order-lagging-economic-shifts-by-kishore-mahbubani-2019-12&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1607178503442000&amp;usg=AFQjCNE_A6p8Q2uLLb6Ei39rRpnMMBaQRw">warned</a> that “the international order has lagged dangerously behind shifting global power dynamics.” Will US President-elect Joe Biden’s administration improve prospects of reform?Kishore Mahbubani: Sadly, the answer is no. The combination of intellectual laziness and political inertia has fueled the belief in Washington, DC, that weaker multilateral institutions are better for America’s national interests. But, while that logic may have had some merit in a unipolar world, it does not suit the multipolar world in which we live. As Bill Clinton <a href="https://yaleglobal.yale.edu/content/transcript-global-challenges" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://yaleglobal.yale.edu/content/transcript-global-challenges&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1607178503442000&amp;usg=AFQjCNH9JaQzkQk4FS7uZuOwHdqH-AZRZg">put it</a> in 2003, the United States should be trying to create the kind of world in which it would like to live when it is “no longer the military, political, and economic superpower.”America’s proclivity for constraining multilateral institutions goes back decades, perhaps as far as Ronald Reagan’s presidency. For example, the US has long fought to reduce its contributions to the United Nations, and has even withheld payments, even though the money saved is a drop in the bucket of the US budget.If the Biden administration is truly committed to multilateralism – and, more fundamentally, to being a good global citizen – it should immediately pay all US arrears. This would send a powerful message, opening the way for a broader rethink of the twentieth-century multilateral order and make it fit for purpose in the (Asia-led) twenty-first century.In January 2019, you <a href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/trump-macron-inequality-and-trust-by-kishore-mahbubani-2019-01" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/trump-macron-inequality-and-trust-by-kishore-mahbubani-2019-01&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1607178503442000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHXhXVgL6L3-QVQo78iqaxA1NCZLA">noted</a> that President Donald Trump was trusted by much of the bottom 50% of earners. Trump’s opponents thus faced a choice: “feel good by condemning Trump” or “do good by attacking the elite interests that contributed to his election.” Biden stuck to the first path. But by running largely on the platform that he wasn’t Trump, he will enter the White House with the US as politically polarized as ever. Are there lessons in building trust and broadly credible institutions that the Biden administration should <a href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/three-reasons-for-better-east-asian-covid19-response-by-kishore-mahbubani-2020-07" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/three-reasons-for-better-east-asian-covid19-response-by-kishore-mahbubani-2020-07&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1607178503442000&amp;usg=AFQjCNH03iSQSNLvhQI1tkmO7HtJAFh8WQ">take</a> from East Asia?The first lesson that the Biden administration should take from East Asia begins with a look at the <a href="https://wid.world/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://wid.world/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1607178503442000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGfYEM15s5clM63l2Eutj-tC4qpTg">relative distribution of income</a>. The latest data for Japan (2012) show that 12.3% of the country’s total income goes to the top 1% of earners, while 19.6% of the total goes to the bottom 50%. In South Korea, the latest comparable figures (2015) are 14% and 19.3%.In the US, the figures are reversed, with the top 1% claiming 18.7% of total income, and the bottom 50% getting just 13.5% (as of 2019). The simple explanation for this imbalance is that the US has become a plutocracy, in which the super-wealthy have hijacked the political system to advance their own interests. As the political scientists Martin Gilens and Benjamin Page <a href="https://scholar.princeton.edu/sites/default/files/mgilens/files/gilens_and_page_2014_-testing_theories_of_american_politics.doc.pdf" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://scholar.princeton.edu/sites/default/files/mgilens/files/gilens_and_page_2014_-testing_theories_of_american_politics.doc.pdf&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1607178503442000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFHO37Ctf2Fj4r5zmeAb9S0bO_VTA">wrote</a> in 2014, “Economic elites and organized groups representing business interests have substantial independent impacts on US government policy, while average citizens and mass-based interest groups have little or no independent influence.”1This has contributed significantly to the despair and frustration that have enveloped the white working class, fueling support for the supposedly “anti-establishment” Trump. But, far from breaking economic elites’ hold over government, Trump’s actions – from hiring industry insiders to lead regulatory agencies to cutting taxes for the wealthiest Americans – reinforce plutocracy.If Biden wants to build the kind of public trust and credible institutions seen in East Asia, he will need to reject plutocracy unequivocally. This means, first and foremost, introducing tough new regulations on money in politics. Here, Australia also provides a model worth emulating.Perhaps the only matter on which US Democrats and Republicans agree is that China’s rise represents a threat to US interests – a simplistic and dangerous view that you <a href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/us-china-trade-war-conflict-by-kishore-mahbubani-2018-05" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/us-china-trade-war-conflict-by-kishore-mahbubani-2018-05&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1607178503442000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGOKpDJyFXs5Ab_5vvjHrc_61_ZPw">condemned</a> in 2018. While Biden will presumably act less crudely and impetuously than Trump, do you think this will actually leave China better off? Or do you envision Biden taking a more methodical approach – possibly with the support of once-alienated allies – to “containing” China?On China, Biden’s hands are tied. Given the overwhelming bipartisan consensus, appearing weak on China would be political suicide. Biden is well aware of this: he called Chinese President Xi Jinping a “thug” during the election campaign, precisely to dispel any doubts about his willingness to take a tough line.Yet, as former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger once pointed out to me, the US lacks any real strategy for dealing with China. If Biden is truly shrewd, he will devise one that advances core American interests (such as protecting US businesses in China) and permits cooperation on shared challenges, like the COVID-19 crisis. If Winston Churchill could cooperate with Josef Stalin to fight Adolf Hitler, the US can certainly manage to work with China to end a pandemic.At the same time, Biden should recognize that China still represents massive economic opportunities for the US. American farmers have been badly hit by Trump’s reckless trade wars. They would be far better off if Biden gradually reduced the trade sanctions on China and improved US farmers’ access to Chinese markets. Beyond the economic benefits, this would help to erode Trump’s base, improving Democrats’ electoral prospects in the coming years.On the Chinese side, to what extent have policymakers grasped the intensity of the shift in US public and elite opinion, and reconsidered their “calm and rational policies toward the US”? How might their calculations change under the Biden administration, and how should they change?China has one big strategic advantage: it always plays the long game. As Kissinger notes in his 2011 book <a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/307651/on-china-by-henry-kissinger/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/307651/on-china-by-henry-kissinger/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1607178503442000&amp;usg=AFQjCNE6-NJDGl6jbLu4Rcb_p-NqcsDPfg">On China</a>, the Chinese play Wei Qi, not chess. And, as he puts it, “Wei Qi is about the protracted campaign.” So, while the US lurches from one administration to another, China has been quietly executing its long-planned maneuvers, gradually and consistently strengthening its position.Deepening international ties – including with faraway countries – is central to China’s strategy. Consider Brazil. In 2000, it took six months for the country to trade $1 billion worth of goods with China; today, it takes 72 hours. Moreover, a Brazilian is at the helm of the New Development Bank, established by the BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa). Such ties have bolstered the bilateral relationship, even as Brazil’s right-wing populist president, Jair Bolsonaro, has emulated the China-bashing Trump in other ways.But China has also made serious strategic mistakes. A tsunami of anti-China sentiment engulfed India after last June’s clashes on the Himalayan border, which left 20 India soldiers dead. And some ASEAN countries remain troubled by China’s territorial claims in the South China Sea.China’s leaders are astute enough to recognize that if Biden does restore America’s reputation as a reliable ally, a formidable group of countries might join the US in confronting China. Given this, China’s leaders should work hard to establish constructive, mutually beneficial relations with the Biden administration, remaining all the while “calm and rational.”1 In your recent book, <a href="https://www.publicaffairsbooks.com/titles/kishore-mahbubani/has-china-won/9781541768123/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.publicaffairsbooks.com/titles/kishore-mahbubani/has-china-won/9781541768123/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1607178503442000&amp;usg=AFQjCNF6KwyuCnnaNbFLv92TbCPWq05rKA">Has China Won? The Chinese Challenge to American Primacy</a>, you note that when you served in the Singapore Foreign Service, you learned a “big lesson” from Singapore’s three exceptional geopolitical masters (Lee Kuan Yew, Goh Keng Swee, and S. Rajaratnam): The first step to formulate any long-term strategy is to frame the right questions. As US strategists attempt to develop “new analytical frameworks to capture the essence of the competition with China,” what questions must they answer first?In Has China Won?, I spell out ten major questions, all of which the Biden administration should consider. Here is another big one: What happens if China’s economy surpasses America’s in the next decade or two?For many in Washington, DC, this scenario is unthinkable. But the truth is that it’s entirely possible. It’s also possible that the US can remain the world’s most influential country, even if it becomes the number-two economic power. George Kennan, the master strategist who shaped US policy toward the Soviet Union during the Cold War, <a href="https://is.muni.cz/el/1423/jaro2017/BSS185/um/Week_4_Kennan_on_Containment.pdf" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://is.muni.cz/el/1423/jaro2017/BSS185/um/Week_4_Kennan_on_Containment.pdf&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1607178503443000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGGma8oOzzryz1W_qrcGeeUUTkk3A">explained</a> how in 1947: the US creates “among the peoples of the world generally” the impression that it is successful domestically and enjoys a “spiritual vitality.”If he were alive today, Kennan would heartily disapprove of US strategists’ belief that the country’s global primacy is more important than the interests of its people. He would also strongly oppose the relentless growth of defense spending. After all, Kennan would surely recognize, the outcome of the US-China geopolitical contest will be determined not by bullets and bombs, but by the two countries’ relative “spiritual vitality.” That is why the Biden administration should shift America’s focus from maintaining global primacy to improving human well-being.In May, you <a href="https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1192022.shtml" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1192022.shtml&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1607178503443000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGs3BsSafi6DcX9NvKqG-yNQXOVBQ">said</a> that Hong Kong had become a “pawn” in the geopolitical chess match between the US and China. Have China’s decisive moves to assert the mainland’s control there given it an advantage in the game? Where does that leave the people of Hong Kong?All “great powers” put their national interests ahead of those of smaller autonomous territories. US Republicans block Puerto Rico from becoming a state, because they worry that the extra votes would go largely to Democrats. Similarly, China’s central government will not allow instability in Hong Kong to destabilize China and undermine its strategic position vis-à-vis the US. That is why the National Security Law was passed.The conventional wisdom is that Hong Kong will suffer mightily as a result of increased central-government control. But it is just as likely that the increased stability will leave Hong Kong’s people better off, especially if the city government can finally overcome vested interests and expand its public housing program significantly. This would go a long way toward addressing a major source of popular anger in Hong Kong.What advice do you have for the leaders of other territories and countries that are likely to get caught in the crossfire of the Sino-American rivalry?Don’t make the same mistake as Australia. In Asian cultures, including China’s, saving face is important. When Australia publicly called for an international inquiry into China’s handling of the COVID-19 crisis, it put China on the spot. With so many eyes on the standoff, China cannot blink – or it will risk more confrontations with more countries. So, all Australia will get from its initiative is a slow, painful war of economic attrition.Fortunately, most countries have made clear that they don’t want to take sides in the US-China rivalry. Neither the US nor China should try to force them to.You note in Has China Won? your diverse array of cultural connections that extend across Asia. But your description of those linkages reveals an active interest in searching for them, such as through your name’s Arabic-Persian roots. How, if at all, did this inclination influence your decade of service as an ambassador to the UN, and what does it tell us about the conceptual limits of the nation-state?The personal cultural connectedness I have felt across a wide range of countries, from Morocco to South Korea, has been a huge advantage in my career as diplomat and writer. In Morocco, I heard my favorite singer, Mohammad Rafi, perform in a remote village. In Korea, I encountered the story of the Indian princess who landed on the peninsula in the first century AD.This cultural connectedness makes me a keen optimist. I believe that, over time, we will look at shared challenges like global warming and the COVID-19 pandemic, and recognize that we belong to a common humanity. Nation-states have become like small cabins on a larger global boat. Having the most luxurious cabin means nothing if the boat sinks.By arrangement with © <a href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.project-syndicate.org/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1607178503443000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHSbaaYvdpDj2FQzkDgwL7xNFnkWg">Project Syndicate</a>Photo: Zakaria Zainal/Mekong ReviewHas China Won?The Chinese Challenge to American Primacyby <a href="https://www.publicaffairsbooks.com/contributor/kishore-mahbubani/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.publicaffairsbooks.com/contributor/kishore-mahbubani/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1607178503443000&amp;usg=AFQjCNERfRBjKe9J1efPxNTByORM65tSiw">Kishore Mahbubani</a>Public Affairs, 2020Hardcover price $17.99   320 pagesEbook ISBN: 9781541768123<a href="https://www.amazon.com/Has-China-Won-Challenge-American/dp/1541768132"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109191112/636bed704b0ad905ca02eee6jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="696" height="1080"></a>

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Staying neutral in a US-China confrontation

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109181140/636be6539c7e80680e08779cjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1365" height="2048"/><figcaption></figcaption></figure>Interview by Project Syndicate with Kishore Mahbubani, a former Singaporean diplomat and now distinguished fellow at the Asia Research Institute of the National University of Singapore about the rise of China. He also responds to questions about the conclusions from his new book Has China Won? The Chinese Challenge to American Primacy, and a particular one that has relevance for Nepal on his advice for the leaders of countries that are likely to get caught in the crossfire of the Sino-American rivalry.--Project Syndicate: You’ve <a href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/onpoint/world-order-lagging-economic-shifts-by-kishore-mahbubani-2019-12" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.project-syndicate.org/onpoint/world-order-lagging-economic-shifts-by-kishore-mahbubani-2019-12&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1607178503442000&amp;usg=AFQjCNE_A6p8Q2uLLb6Ei39rRpnMMBaQRw">warned</a> that “the international order has lagged dangerously behind shifting global power dynamics.” Will US President-elect Joe Biden’s administration improve prospects of reform?Kishore Mahbubani: Sadly, the answer is no. The combination of intellectual laziness and political inertia has fueled the belief in Washington, DC, that weaker multilateral institutions are better for America’s national interests. But, while that logic may have had some merit in a unipolar world, it does not suit the multipolar world in which we live. As Bill Clinton <a href="https://yaleglobal.yale.edu/content/transcript-global-challenges" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://yaleglobal.yale.edu/content/transcript-global-challenges&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1607178503442000&amp;usg=AFQjCNH9JaQzkQk4FS7uZuOwHdqH-AZRZg">put it</a> in 2003, the United States should be trying to create the kind of world in which it would like to live when it is “no longer the military, political, and economic superpower.”America’s proclivity for constraining multilateral institutions goes back decades, perhaps as far as Ronald Reagan’s presidency. For example, the US has long fought to reduce its contributions to the United Nations, and has even withheld payments, even though the money saved is a drop in the bucket of the US budget.If the Biden administration is truly committed to multilateralism – and, more fundamentally, to being a good global citizen – it should immediately pay all US arrears. This would send a powerful message, opening the way for a broader rethink of the twentieth-century multilateral order and make it fit for purpose in the (Asia-led) twenty-first century.In January 2019, you <a href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/trump-macron-inequality-and-trust-by-kishore-mahbubani-2019-01" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/trump-macron-inequality-and-trust-by-kishore-mahbubani-2019-01&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1607178503442000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHXhXVgL6L3-QVQo78iqaxA1NCZLA">noted</a> that President Donald Trump was trusted by much of the bottom 50% of earners. Trump’s opponents thus faced a choice: “feel good by condemning Trump” or “do good by attacking the elite interests that contributed to his election.” Biden stuck to the first path. But by running largely on the platform that he wasn’t Trump, he will enter the White House with the US as politically polarized as ever. Are there lessons in building trust and broadly credible institutions that the Biden administration should <a href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/three-reasons-for-better-east-asian-covid19-response-by-kishore-mahbubani-2020-07" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/three-reasons-for-better-east-asian-covid19-response-by-kishore-mahbubani-2020-07&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1607178503442000&amp;usg=AFQjCNH03iSQSNLvhQI1tkmO7HtJAFh8WQ">take</a> from East Asia?The first lesson that the Biden administration should take from East Asia begins with a look at the <a href="https://wid.world/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://wid.world/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1607178503442000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGfYEM15s5clM63l2Eutj-tC4qpTg">relative distribution of income</a>. The latest data for Japan (2012) show that 12.3% of the country’s total income goes to the top 1% of earners, while 19.6% of the total goes to the bottom 50%. In South Korea, the latest comparable figures (2015) are 14% and 19.3%.In the US, the figures are reversed, with the top 1% claiming 18.7% of total income, and the bottom 50% getting just 13.5% (as of 2019). The simple explanation for this imbalance is that the US has become a plutocracy, in which the super-wealthy have hijacked the political system to advance their own interests. As the political scientists Martin Gilens and Benjamin Page <a href="https://scholar.princeton.edu/sites/default/files/mgilens/files/gilens_and_page_2014_-testing_theories_of_american_politics.doc.pdf" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://scholar.princeton.edu/sites/default/files/mgilens/files/gilens_and_page_2014_-testing_theories_of_american_politics.doc.pdf&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1607178503442000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFHO37Ctf2Fj4r5zmeAb9S0bO_VTA">wrote</a> in 2014, “Economic elites and organized groups representing business interests have substantial independent impacts on US government policy, while average citizens and mass-based interest groups have little or no independent influence.”1This has contributed significantly to the despair and frustration that have enveloped the white working class, fueling support for the supposedly “anti-establishment” Trump. But, far from breaking economic elites’ hold over government, Trump’s actions – from hiring industry insiders to lead regulatory agencies to cutting taxes for the wealthiest Americans – reinforce plutocracy.If Biden wants to build the kind of public trust and credible institutions seen in East Asia, he will need to reject plutocracy unequivocally. This means, first and foremost, introducing tough new regulations on money in politics. Here, Australia also provides a model worth emulating.Perhaps the only matter on which US Democrats and Republicans agree is that China’s rise represents a threat to US interests – a simplistic and dangerous view that you <a href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/us-china-trade-war-conflict-by-kishore-mahbubani-2018-05" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/us-china-trade-war-conflict-by-kishore-mahbubani-2018-05&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1607178503442000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGOKpDJyFXs5Ab_5vvjHrc_61_ZPw">condemned</a> in 2018. While Biden will presumably act less crudely and impetuously than Trump, do you think this will actually leave China better off? Or do you envision Biden taking a more methodical approach – possibly with the support of once-alienated allies – to “containing” China?On China, Biden’s hands are tied. Given the overwhelming bipartisan consensus, appearing weak on China would be political suicide. Biden is well aware of this: he called Chinese President Xi Jinping a “thug” during the election campaign, precisely to dispel any doubts about his willingness to take a tough line.Yet, as former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger once pointed out to me, the US lacks any real strategy for dealing with China. If Biden is truly shrewd, he will devise one that advances core American interests (such as protecting US businesses in China) and permits cooperation on shared challenges, like the COVID-19 crisis. If Winston Churchill could cooperate with Josef Stalin to fight Adolf Hitler, the US can certainly manage to work with China to end a pandemic.At the same time, Biden should recognize that China still represents massive economic opportunities for the US. American farmers have been badly hit by Trump’s reckless trade wars. They would be far better off if Biden gradually reduced the trade sanctions on China and improved US farmers’ access to Chinese markets. Beyond the economic benefits, this would help to erode Trump’s base, improving Democrats’ electoral prospects in the coming years.On the Chinese side, to what extent have policymakers grasped the intensity of the shift in US public and elite opinion, and reconsidered their “calm and rational policies toward the US”? How might their calculations change under the Biden administration, and how should they change?China has one big strategic advantage: it always plays the long game. As Kissinger notes in his 2011 book <a href="https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/307651/on-china-by-henry-kissinger/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/307651/on-china-by-henry-kissinger/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1607178503442000&amp;usg=AFQjCNE6-NJDGl6jbLu4Rcb_p-NqcsDPfg">On China</a>, the Chinese play Wei Qi, not chess. And, as he puts it, “Wei Qi is about the protracted campaign.” So, while the US lurches from one administration to another, China has been quietly executing its long-planned maneuvers, gradually and consistently strengthening its position.Deepening international ties – including with faraway countries – is central to China’s strategy. Consider Brazil. In 2000, it took six months for the country to trade $1 billion worth of goods with China; today, it takes 72 hours. Moreover, a Brazilian is at the helm of the New Development Bank, established by the BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa). Such ties have bolstered the bilateral relationship, even as Brazil’s right-wing populist president, Jair Bolsonaro, has emulated the China-bashing Trump in other ways.But China has also made serious strategic mistakes. A tsunami of anti-China sentiment engulfed India after last June’s clashes on the Himalayan border, which left 20 India soldiers dead. And some ASEAN countries remain troubled by China’s territorial claims in the South China Sea.China’s leaders are astute enough to recognize that if Biden does restore America’s reputation as a reliable ally, a formidable group of countries might join the US in confronting China. Given this, China’s leaders should work hard to establish constructive, mutually beneficial relations with the Biden administration, remaining all the while “calm and rational.”1 In your recent book, <a href="https://www.publicaffairsbooks.com/titles/kishore-mahbubani/has-china-won/9781541768123/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.publicaffairsbooks.com/titles/kishore-mahbubani/has-china-won/9781541768123/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1607178503442000&amp;usg=AFQjCNF6KwyuCnnaNbFLv92TbCPWq05rKA">Has China Won? The Chinese Challenge to American Primacy</a>, you note that when you served in the Singapore Foreign Service, you learned a “big lesson” from Singapore’s three exceptional geopolitical masters (Lee Kuan Yew, Goh Keng Swee, and S. Rajaratnam): The first step to formulate any long-term strategy is to frame the right questions. As US strategists attempt to develop “new analytical frameworks to capture the essence of the competition with China,” what questions must they answer first?In Has China Won?, I spell out ten major questions, all of which the Biden administration should consider. Here is another big one: What happens if China’s economy surpasses America’s in the next decade or two?For many in Washington, DC, this scenario is unthinkable. But the truth is that it’s entirely possible. It’s also possible that the US can remain the world’s most influential country, even if it becomes the number-two economic power. George Kennan, the master strategist who shaped US policy toward the Soviet Union during the Cold War, <a href="https://is.muni.cz/el/1423/jaro2017/BSS185/um/Week_4_Kennan_on_Containment.pdf" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://is.muni.cz/el/1423/jaro2017/BSS185/um/Week_4_Kennan_on_Containment.pdf&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1607178503443000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGGma8oOzzryz1W_qrcGeeUUTkk3A">explained</a> how in 1947: the US creates “among the peoples of the world generally” the impression that it is successful domestically and enjoys a “spiritual vitality.”If he were alive today, Kennan would heartily disapprove of US strategists’ belief that the country’s global primacy is more important than the interests of its people. He would also strongly oppose the relentless growth of defense spending. After all, Kennan would surely recognize, the outcome of the US-China geopolitical contest will be determined not by bullets and bombs, but by the two countries’ relative “spiritual vitality.” That is why the Biden administration should shift America’s focus from maintaining global primacy to improving human well-being.In May, you <a href="https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1192022.shtml" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1192022.shtml&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1607178503443000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGs3BsSafi6DcX9NvKqG-yNQXOVBQ">said</a> that Hong Kong had become a “pawn” in the geopolitical chess match between the US and China. Have China’s decisive moves to assert the mainland’s control there given it an advantage in the game? Where does that leave the people of Hong Kong?All “great powers” put their national interests ahead of those of smaller autonomous territories. US Republicans block Puerto Rico from becoming a state, because they worry that the extra votes would go largely to Democrats. Similarly, China’s central government will not allow instability in Hong Kong to destabilize China and undermine its strategic position vis-à-vis the US. That is why the National Security Law was passed.The conventional wisdom is that Hong Kong will suffer mightily as a result of increased central-government control. But it is just as likely that the increased stability will leave Hong Kong’s people better off, especially if the city government can finally overcome vested interests and expand its public housing program significantly. This would go a long way toward addressing a major source of popular anger in Hong Kong.What advice do you have for the leaders of other territories and countries that are likely to get caught in the crossfire of the Sino-American rivalry?Don’t make the same mistake as Australia. In Asian cultures, including China’s, saving face is important. When Australia publicly called for an international inquiry into China’s handling of the COVID-19 crisis, it put China on the spot. With so many eyes on the standoff, China cannot blink – or it will risk more confrontations with more countries. So, all Australia will get from its initiative is a slow, painful war of economic attrition.Fortunately, most countries have made clear that they don’t want to take sides in the US-China rivalry. Neither the US nor China should try to force them to.You note in Has China Won? your diverse array of cultural connections that extend across Asia. But your description of those linkages reveals an active interest in searching for them, such as through your name’s Arabic-Persian roots. How, if at all, did this inclination influence your decade of service as an ambassador to the UN, and what does it tell us about the conceptual limits of the nation-state?The personal cultural connectedness I have felt across a wide range of countries, from Morocco to South Korea, has been a huge advantage in my career as diplomat and writer. In Morocco, I heard my favorite singer, Mohammad Rafi, perform in a remote village. In Korea, I encountered the story of the Indian princess who landed on the peninsula in the first century AD.This cultural connectedness makes me a keen optimist. I believe that, over time, we will look at shared challenges like global warming and the COVID-19 pandemic, and recognize that we belong to a common humanity. Nation-states have become like small cabins on a larger global boat. Having the most luxurious cabin means nothing if the boat sinks.By arrangement with © <a href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.project-syndicate.org/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1607178503443000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHSbaaYvdpDj2FQzkDgwL7xNFnkWg">Project Syndicate</a>Photo: Zakaria Zainal/Mekong ReviewHas China Won?The Chinese Challenge to American Primacyby <a href="https://www.publicaffairsbooks.com/contributor/kishore-mahbubani/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.publicaffairsbooks.com/contributor/kishore-mahbubani/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1607178503443000&amp;usg=AFQjCNERfRBjKe9J1efPxNTByORM65tSiw">Kishore Mahbubani</a>Public Affairs, 2020Hardcover price $17.99   320 pagesEbook ISBN: 9781541768123<a href="https://www.amazon.com/Has-China-Won-Challenge-American/dp/1541768132"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109181140/636be6569c7e80680e08779djpeg.jpg" alt="" width="696" height="1080"></a>

As this report is uploaded, the latest results in Nepal’s election show that the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) is headed for an even bigger sweep than most had predicted.
The RSP was leading by large margins in 49 of 165 constituencies, &nbsp;with the UML, NC and NCP trailing far behind. Prominent political figures from the old parties like K P Oli, Minwndra Prasad Rijal, Ishwar Pokhrel, Bishnu Prasad Poudel, Bimalendra Nidhi all seem headed for defeat.
It does look like the RSP’s bell election symbol is ringing right across Nepal — from cities to the remotest districts in the mountains and plains. The party’s blue colour is sweeping the land.
The Nepali people seem to have sent a clear message that they were throughly dissatisfied with the chronic failure of the three main parties to work in the national interest to create jobs and deliver development. It was also an expression of lingering outrage over the the 8 September massacre outside Parliament. &nbsp;
It now looks almost certain that Balendra Shah will get to be Nepal’s next, and youngest, prime minister. Hopefully he will be leading a cabinet of competent and honest technocrats. It remains to seen how the power equation between Shah and the RSP’s leader, Rabi Lamichhane will play out.
Lamichhane is out of jail on bail for fraud cases which he has called political vendetta by the previous regime. Both he and Shah are charismatic and ambitious. Their working relationship will determine Nepal's political stability and whether it can avoid the political cronyism of the past.
This election was not just about casting votes. It was about standing up to principles and a value system, and respecting the hopes and aspirations of Nepal’s youth. It to push for transparent government and against impunity — including for the gunning down of young Nepalis in cold blood.
<div class="embed-block"><iframe src="https://election-geo-dashboard.pages.dev/" width="100%" height="600" frameborder="0"> </iframe>Live election results as winners of candidates are announced.</div>
CAN DO MAN
Shah got mixed reviews as mayor. He was impulsive and ad hoc, but most people inKathmandu and beyond liked his can-do attitude and unconventional style which stood in sharp contract to the legacy leaders. Over his three year mayorship he showed more maturity and planning capacity.&nbsp;
But he always ran headlong into opposition from the federal government over his urban planning and other initiatives to make Kathmandu more liveable. Coming from a civil and structural engineering background, he was involved in building low-cost housing after the 2015 earthquake.
But his public persona is more tied to his irreverent rap lyrics that stood up for the marginalised underprivileged in society, while exposing the high-handedness and apathy of the state. But this also exposed contradictions because he also used his own municipal guards to beat and chase away street vendors and squatters.
But there is no doubt that a combination of the sharp messaging in his rap videos amplified by the algorithms of social media ignited Nepal’s youth to rise up. It was more about optics and emotion than policy and strategy.
He studied Kathmandu district for five years, visiting experts in every field before announcing his independent candidacy for mayor in 2022. Many like me in his own constitunecy did not know who he was and where he came from.
He is a year younger than my architect son, and I saw in him a reflection of my own son’s commitment to serving the nation. I voted for him to be mayor despite his sometimes erratic behaviour, which could be attributed to his youth.
The best sign of his strategic planning, which unsettled septuagenarian and octogenarian politicians, is the he did not grab the first easy option of becoming prime minister in September when GenZ activists offered him the post.&nbsp;
Joining RSP was a masterstroke, as was his challenge to Oli in Jhapa to project national branding. He needed a party platform and Lamichhane needed a popular prime ministerial persona since he himself could not hold the post.
Shah has shown the capacity to take risks when he believes the value justifies the action for the country. Now, he will have to show more strategic thinking on a national scale, as well as understand the delicate geopolitics of Nepal.&nbsp;
He must rise above the kind of crude social media posts that earned him followers on X, but did nothing to erase his erratic and impulsive image.&nbsp;
Some assume that behind his trademark RayBan shades is a closet dictator, and his past remarks about Hitler are still up on social media. He has in the past shown impatience with criticism, unleashing supporters on social media to troll detractors.&nbsp;
Even so, the public seems willing to place their hope on an educated young man with integrity and a proven record for planning at the helm. By tomorrow it will be clear whether the hope Nepalis have held has been fulfilled, and the coming years will show if the RSP will lead Nepalis to a better future.
The voters seem to have shown the door even to the NC despite the fact that under Gagan Thapa, the party had turned a new leaf. A strong government under Prime Minister Balendra Shah heading a carefully selected cabinet and a strong opposition of the NC, UML and other parties for check and balance may be just what we need for a stable Nepal.&nbsp;
Nepalis have collectively always shown maturity in elections. This time they have given a resounding endorsement for integrity and for good governance.

Bells ring all over Nepal

Nepali Congress (NC) President Gagan Thapa's candidacy in Sarlahi-4 has thrust this Madhes constituency into rare national focus. If Thapa wins and the NC emerges as the largest party, Sarlahi-4 will send Nepal's next prime minister to Parliament. But if he does not, Nepal’s grand old party will face the next years in the opposition to fight another day. There is a troubling paradox in Sarlahi-4 where the district bordering the Indian state of Bihar has been a battleground for national politicians with fierce electoral competition, all while remaining one of the region's most underserved and underdeveloped constituencies.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485.png" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485" data-rendition-name="original" width="1802" height="1276" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: MADHES PAHARA MEDIA</figcaption> </figure>  Ever since Mahant Thakur split from NC in 2008 to form the Tarai Madhes Loktantrik Party, the district has seen rotating political alliances and fragmented votes. Yet, despite 18 years of candidates promising change irrigation schemes remain incomplete, market access for farmers has not improved, unemployment is high.&nbsp; On election day, voters here marked their ballots with fingers stained by dye from the Holi festival the day before. The road leading to Barathawa Bazar was deserted for the most part, except for some youth riding in motorcycles. This is where the high-profile contest between Gagan Thapa and RSP nominee Amresh Singh is being staged. Among the other aspirants is 27-year-old UML candidate Amnish Yadav, the son of former MP Shiv Pujan Yadav. The Yadavs are a political family with considerable caste influence in the constituency. In 2022 Yadav’s daughter Madhumala Yadav received over 14,000 votes here, ranking third overall. Yadav was voted MP from the Maoist party, but defected to the UML this time. His other son is the chair of Sarlahi’s Ramnagar Rural Municipality. Sarhali-4 has 121,012 voters, and the Yadav is banking on the 27,000-strong Yadav vote bank. Sarlahi-4 voter Avishek Sah told us he wanted his vote to go to a young nominee and not someone who has been MP thrice already, like Amresh Singh. &nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10" data-rendition-name="original" width="1200" height="1600" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  To make local loyalties even more complicated, Amnish Yadav’s uncle, Harinder Yadav is an active NC member and walked side by side with Gagan Thapa during his door-to-door campaigns.&nbsp; The NC is betting on Thapa getting over 60% of the total votes. Amresh Singh’s tally could be limited to 10,000 votes — that too because of the nationwide RSP wave, and the popularity of its prime ministerial hopeful Balendra (Balen) Shah. “Amresh Singh lost his appeal when he played victim after he was denied a ticket by the NC in 2022,” Harinder Yadav says. Voters we spoke to here agreed with this assessment that Singh did not do much for the district once he got elected in the past, and being a part of the RSP seems to be his biggest asset. “The only reason I voted for Amresh Singh is because Balen is in RSP,” local voter Mahendra Gupta from Barathawa. &nbsp;“This is his last chance to return the people’s trust.”&nbsp; Gupta is aware of the institutional presence of the NC here. The party received the most votes in 2022 local elections, adding that the candidacy of someone as high-profile as Thapa is a positive sign for Sarlahi-4.&nbsp; Other voters like Ruby Gupta are rooting for both the NC and the RSP. “I will vote for Gagan and for Balen,” she says, adding that her FPTP vote will go to Thapa while her PR ballot would be for the RSP. RSP supporters are confident that their candidate will win big because even though many voters may not have openly voiced their support they still voted for the party and candidate. The Balen Wave was not limited to RSP voters, but also to UML candidate Yadav, who said in a gathering that he will be “the voters Balen” if they elect him. He touted his party’s track record in government, and largely campaigned on administrative efficiency, infrastructural expansion, and local service delivery. Amresh Singh ran on the RSP’s anti-establishment brand, promising to fight corruption, challenge traditional party politics, improve basic services such as education, health, jobs, and infrastructure, while pushing for stronger representation and development for Madhes.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="1200" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo:AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  Singh’s rivalry with his NC competitor goes beyond the ballot— he allegedly blames Thapa for being denied the NC ticket in 2022, which led him to win the election from Sarlahi-4 as an independent. &nbsp; For his part, Gagan Thapa focused on a more pragmatic development agenda that includes upgrading roads and irrigation, improving schools and hospitals, supporting farmers, and creating employment opportunities with improved governance at the centre. He also promised to build an engineering college in the constituency.&nbsp; Thapa also promoted his own anti-establishment image within the NC, repeatedly reminding voters on the campaign trail that he represents the aspirations of the youth.&nbsp; On Thursday, as voting progressed, there were violent disruptions in two centres where voting was briefly halted. But Sarlahi district police spokesperson Saroj Rai told Nepali Times that there were no major problems. Police in collaboration with the Nepal Army sent the ballot papers to the district’s counting stations, where the votes are expected to be tallied through the night and the winner announced Friday morning.

Sarlahi-4 nervously watches ballot count

After Thursday’s election, Nepalis are in a wait-and-watch mode. The Election Commission says counting ballot papers will be expedited this time, and the results for the First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) will start being declared within days. In 2022, it took three weeks for the final results to be tallied.&nbsp;
But winning an election is only half the challenge for the parties, forming a government under parliamentary politics is like a complicated mathematical equation.&nbsp;
In 2022, the Nepali Congress (NC) emerged as the biggest party, winning 89 seats. But the UML with 78 seats and the Maoists with 32 formed a minority government. In fact, Sher Bahadur Deuba did not become PM then despite leading the biggest party in Parliament.
This time, there is an unmistakeable Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) wave led by its prime ministerial candidate, Balendra Shah. Besides his own popularity, Shah represents change which most Nepalis are clamouring for after decades of corrupt and feckless coalitions that did not deliver.&nbsp;
The past months of campaigning has seen massive youth engagement on social media through memes, AI clips, and viral images. Digital content that appeals to emotion rather than policy debate between candidates shape electoral outcomes in Nepal and elsewhere. &nbsp;
Shah represents GenZ aspirations, and was their candidate for prime minister. It was only when he declined that Sushila Karki was nominated. None of the political parties in the recent past -- new, old, or revolutionary — have won enough seats to go it alone.&nbsp;
The most recent majority government was formed by the short-lived Communist Party of Nepal after the UML-Maoist merger in 2022. But that rare two-thirds majority collapsed after a power struggle between K P Oli and Pushpa Kamal Dahal. The only party to have won a majority was the NC in the 1991 and 1999 elections. But it is near impossible for it to repeat this success now, even with Gagan Thapa's rebranding of the party.&nbsp;
We have compiled these possible scenarios for election outcome in order of likelihood:
RSP gets a majority
RSP hits the magic 138 to form a government entirely on its own. Balendra Shah wins Jhapa-5, and becomes the new prime minister at 35, the youngest ever to hold the office in Nepal. But danger lurks: there could be a personality clash between Shah and Lamichhane who are both equally ambitious. History could repeat itself.&nbsp;
RSP wins but does not get a majority
RSP is likely to sweep the most votes, but what if it does not secure enough seats for a majority? It would need a coalition partner and Nepali Communist Party (NCP) under Pushpa Kamal Dahal could fit the bill, but only if it has the numbers. The RSP is not likely to team up with the UML or NC.
The NCP is relatively untainted by the 8 September events, and also has former UML defectors like Madhav Kumar Nepal and Bhim Rawal who could bag their rural vote banks. After all, there are no permanent foes in politics. If the royalist RPP and Tarai-based Janata Samajwadi have enough seats, those could be options for the RSP. &nbsp;
NC is second
The NC under the new leadership of Gagan Thapa could become the second biggest force and form a government with RSP in a power-sharing deal with Shah. This would be the most stable scenario since the RSP and NC have competent and idealistic young technocrats. Thapa himself embodies a strong combination of both old and new politics to navigate the system for more efficient government. But then Thapa and the RSP's Rabi Lamichhane do not get along.
NC and NCP form a majority
If the NC becomes the largest party but not by a big margin, it could join up with the NCP and Ujyalo. Teaming up with the UML would likely face backlash with the party and outside. If Gagan Thapa becomes prime minister he will face internal pressure from both Deuba loyalists. Same old story.
Minority coalition of NC, UML and NCP
RSP becomes the first party but does not get a majority, paving the way for the three legacy parties to cobble together a minority government. While this is possible in Nepal’s parliamentary system, such a scenario is likely to lead to more instability and dissatisfaction among young Nepalis demanding change, and even trigger street unrest. &nbsp;

The magic 138

Nepal conducted its post-GenZ movement early election on Thursday in a peaceful and orderly manner, although turnout was below average in most districts. In fact, some constituencies saw voters reject the election, including in Arghakhanchi and Mustang.&nbsp; Preparation for the polls had to be done hurriedly after the September protests, with little time for political parties to work on their manifestos and campaign. But the election did push most parties to field younger, fresher and untainted candidates. This was more a <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/old-vs-new-vs-new">personality-driven election for the next prime minister</a> than a traditional parliamentary poll. The three main parties had pre-emptively announced their prime ministerial candidates although the chief executive is supposed to be decided by the largest party in the House.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2026030514034_00809e41288d8dd46d1c8915e8e39fba09892049cfda37ba347e4b23989e94c0.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="2026030514034_00809e41288d8dd46d1c8915e8e39fba09892049cfda37ba347e4b23989e94c0" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1366" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal elections"> <figcaption>Balendra Shah</figcaption> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2026030514034_d288f2cbe05c9c1376e315ea4f24528c5ee63766c978657aee8848eb9f87f4ea.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="2026030514034_d288f2cbe05c9c1376e315ea4f24528c5ee63766c978657aee8848eb9f87f4ea" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="1066" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal elections"> <figcaption>Gagan Thapa</figcaption> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2026030514034_3e2c1c4595b3aa3a4b0c6ca80aa6243e7c5c6e5d232c9295a380c565f85bd233.jpg" data-media-id="editor_3" data-image-id="2026030514034_3e2c1c4595b3aa3a4b0c6ca80aa6243e7c5c6e5d232c9295a380c565f85bd233" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1365" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal elections"> <figcaption>K P Oli</figcaption> </figure>  Going by the noise on social media sites, there seemed to be overwhelming support for the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) and its prime ministerial hopeful, former Kathmandu mayor <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/political-rap">Balendra Shah</a>. Standing against him in his home turf was K P Oli, of the UML who was forced to resign after the 9 September protests. Although the UML was fielding a tried and tested leader, the Nepali Congress (NC) has tried to carry forward the GenZ aspiration for change by putting forward its new party leader Gagan Thapa as its prime ministerial candidate. The lower-than-average turnout appears to have been driven by several factors: a public that is apathetic towards the older parties but is not yet convinced by the capability of the new. Limited time campaigning, and the over-idealistic manifestos of the parties does not seem to have fired up the electorate.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2026030514038_50394032b053d433ed039aeb6d2c00a491d2a56b48a67e55e27fbffe7e4c7fe4.jpg" data-media-id="editor_5" data-image-id="2026030514038_50394032b053d433ed039aeb6d2c00a491d2a56b48a67e55e27fbffe7e4c7fe4" data-rendition-name="original" width="1280" height="854" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal elections"> <figcaption>Photos: ADITYA KHARE</figcaption> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2026030514038_84677be963084003c9a3d3fec0b8f95ab9b9db08c160f08c82aa03b02cb81260.jpg" data-media-id="editor_6" data-image-id="2026030514038_84677be963084003c9a3d3fec0b8f95ab9b9db08c160f08c82aa03b02cb81260" data-rendition-name="original" width="1280" height="854" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal elections"> </figure>  The low turnout is also a reflection of massive outmigration from rural districts, and the requirement that voters had to go to their own home constituencies to vote. And since the Election Commission could not organised ballot by mail or online voting, most of the estimated 4 million voters abroad also could not cast their ballots. To be sure, Nepalis abroad do represent an anti-incumbent vote bloc, and they have influenced families and friends back home through social media. The trend towards RSP and younger candidates is therefore a rejection of the old, and a protest vote against the legacy parties rather than full support for the new ones. Many migrants who were coming back to vote were also stuck in West Asia after the war broke out between Iran and Israel-US. Airlines have had to make drastic rerouting plans, and at least 21,000 flights have been cancelled. The conflict will affect petroleum imports including LPG and aviation fuel, if it continues any longer. Although our reliance on fossil fuels is declining, thanks to the increased electrification of transport and cooking, the shortage might be the first crisis for the new government of Nepal to tackle.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2026030514038_986438337f2af271ab33d267560b8a25691a72292aae074488dc8e77f27cf9c1.jpg" data-media-id="editor_7" data-image-id="2026030514038_986438337f2af271ab33d267560b8a25691a72292aae074488dc8e77f27cf9c1" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1536" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal elections"> <figcaption>Polling in Sangjya. Photo: SHRISTI KARKI</figcaption> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2026030514038_dd2624707dae59f3b32fdebb402a3edfbfe99a4031f4f43dd4522ef7c58bfab0.jpg" data-media-id="editor_8" data-image-id="2026030514038_dd2624707dae59f3b32fdebb402a3edfbfe99a4031f4f43dd4522ef7c58bfab0" data-rendition-name="original" width="1523" height="2030" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal elections"> <figcaption>Photo: SUDIKSHA TULADHAR</figcaption> </figure>  There were 18.9 million registered voters nationwide, and the 60% turnout this time follows a declining trend, possibly making it the lowest in Nepal's polling history. In the first federal election in 2017, the turnout was an impressive 67%, which dipped to 61% in the 2022 election, although it was slightly higher in the municipal election. The EC has started counting the votes on Thursday evening and hopes to have the winners of the FPTP candidates out within 24 hours, however the tallies of the Proportional Representation ballots for the parties may take up to a week.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2026030514034_8ff38b016d3cb75f27343ebe5d826f9201bfefffb6147dcbb0c415071ceb472d.jpg" data-media-id="editor_9" data-image-id="2026030514034_8ff38b016d3cb75f27343ebe5d826f9201bfefffb6147dcbb0c415071ceb472d" data-rendition-name="original" width="1616" height="1080" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal elections"> <figcaption>Ballot boxes being collected. Photos: AMIT MACHAMASI</figcaption> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2026030514034_6e6f6a792db2790533b7ef261e51dbdc07745ee96b80eaa8edc5abab4c7cfd21.jpg" data-media-id="editor_10" data-image-id="2026030514034_6e6f6a792db2790533b7ef261e51dbdc07745ee96b80eaa8edc5abab4c7cfd21" data-rendition-name="original" width="1616" height="1080" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal elections"> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2026030514034_75951a6583c17a741e3f9bd1abb796bbefed335cb6e694e5cddf519bfd0b9ed4.jpg" data-media-id="editor_11" data-image-id="2026030514034_75951a6583c17a741e3f9bd1abb796bbefed335cb6e694e5cddf519bfd0b9ed4" data-rendition-name="original" width="1616" height="1080" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal elections"> </figure>  Many have praised the interim prime minister installed six months ago by the GenZ movement, former chief justice <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/mission-nearly-accomplished">Sushila Karki</a> for conducting the polls on time as promised—a task that looked impossible until a few months ago, especially considering how Sri Lanka and Bangladesh suspended their electoral processes for a long time following their own youth uprisings. Balen Shah also took to his social media to commend Karki. He wrote: 'हजुरको नेतृत्वमा आज लोकतन्त्रले जितेको छ । <a href="https://www.facebook.com/hashtag/%E0%A4%86%E0%A4%AE%E0%A4%BE?__eep__=6&amp;__cft__[0]=AZYlGAeGzdXOS93cs8uOYTfW2l5YtXypnOpQOwFwdzWQQ2X_sLcqe_tqk518ULo-ftJnT5sCeT83L5zqMhzL09YgqxYLxDTzkHRSXiEtegetmKjz0ZbMz54cS2KFOKvPtqdHCZn4J6N0i4IvRDSXgHcCdLLd3kQYflb-Popks3zpA3O9Pqd4_Yh9efVCtMUPumJdN0l-y32bQLREPIMYm_mnJDYHbgoUy9iRUGMu1IOGHQ&amp;__tn__=*NK-y-R" target="_blank">#आमा</a>' (Democracy has won under your leadership. #mother). After casting her vote from Kathmandu on Thursday, Karki said: “I have fulfilled my responsibility towards the nation, let us hope the people’s wish for stability and prosperity will be fulfilled by the new elected government.”

has-china-won

Staying neutral in a US-China confrontation

Staying neutral in a US-China confrontation

Bells ring all over Nepal

Sarlahi-4 nervously watches ballot count

The magic 138

Nepal votes with below average turnout