<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109181116/636be10a9c7e80680e083e27jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="427"/><figcaption>A Nepali security guard at a department store in Kuala Lumpur. Photo: Om Astha Rai / Nepali Times Archives</figcaption></figure>The Malaysian government has initiated a ‘recalibration’ of <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/undocumented-Nepali-migrant-workers-in-Malaysia,3958" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/undocumented-Nepali-migrant-workers-in-Malaysia,3958&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1605344204759000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHotNyMdLETUDaCyhNzC8xOXmEBzg">undocumented foreign workers</a> in its country that will benefit Nepalis who have been working there without proper papers.Called the ‘Illegal Immigrant Recalibration Plan’ it is a part-regularisation-part-amnesty program that will allow undocumented migrants to return to their home countries, whereas the Labour Recalibration Program will allow undocumented workers to be employed in Malaysia in four sectors facing shortages: construction, manufacturing, plantation and agriculture.The plan will go into effect from next week till 30 June 2021. The Malaysian government has often flipflopped on how to manage <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/As-It-Happens/Nepali-migrants-illegal-Malaysia-,718" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/As-It-Happens/Nepali-migrants-illegal-Malaysia-,718&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1605344204760000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGvee99O0p0IKJgF_0QIshL5ussIQ">undocumented workers</a>, mainly from Indonesia, the Philippines, Bangladesh and Nepal, because of its inability to reconcile the need to reduce its overdependence on foreign workers with its labour shortage.In July, the government had said the hiring of workers would be limited to construction, agriculture and in plantations. In August, after facing pressure from employers, this was revised to allow the rehiring of foreign workers in all sectors, as long as they had valid work permits and were going to be employed in the same sector.The government has not agreed to allow the recruitment of new workers till the end of year, but the recruitment of undocumented workers should provide some respite to both the private sector and undocumented workers.The Malaysian Rubber Glove Manufacturers Association, for instance, says the industry is struggling to meet global demand for latex gloves during the pandemic and is facing a severe shortage of up to 25,000 workers, of which 15,000 are from abroad.The Malaysian Palm Oil Association says a labour crunch is making the industry lose up to 25% potential palm oil yield. Efforts to recruit Malaysians including a wage subsidy program have been ramped up, but have largely failed to attract them.Both palm oil and rubber gloves in Malaysia have been included in the US government’s 2020 list of goods made under forced labour conditions. The glove industry has made notable changes, especially the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/global-glove-makers-compensate-nepali-workers/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/global-glove-makers-compensate-nepali-workers/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1605344204760000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEm9pzeMYCCu2KgiFRaFmZcZJTpZA">reimbursement of recruitment costs by major employers</a>, after the largest firm Top Gloves faced a US ban earlier this year. The United States buys up to 36% of Malaysia’s latex glove exports.Profits have soared as spot prices for latex gloves have increased from around $20 for 1,000 pairs pre-Covid to over $120 now. Lead order time has increased from 1.5 to 2 months to 1 to 2 years after the pandemic.Malaysia accounts for 65% of the world’s supply of medical gloves and 70% of them are used in the US, Europe and Japan. Even before the pandemic the annual growth rate in the sector was 8-10%, and many <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-and-malaysia-rewrite-rules-for-migrant-labour/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-and-malaysia-rewrite-rules-for-migrant-labour/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1605344204760000&amp;usg=AFQjCNH50GVc3SiQmNebVy3sqQJvsHWEqA">Nepalis work in the factories</a>. Even post Covid, glove demand is projected to grow.A Nepali worker currently <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/us-ban-on-malaysian-glove-exporter-affects-nepalis/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/us-ban-on-malaysian-glove-exporter-affects-nepalis/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1605344204760000&amp;usg=AFQjCNF3rdU-mPhr5JaEMUKGYOqFHd8GOA">employed at Top Glove</a> welcomes the recruitment of undocumented workers. Said one of them, “We have been working a lot for many months now, and the addition of workers will hopefully release some pressure on us. More Malaysian workers also means greater risk of Covid-19 because we live in hostels but local workers commute from outside and we don’t know where all they have been.”Workers including Nepalis and Bangladeshis have been taken into quarantine recently after tests, and last week, Top Gloves confirmed that 17 of its employees had tested positive, and most of them were asymptomatic.Malaysian Home Minister Hamzah Zainudin said this week, “Employment opportunities for local workers are assured subject to the policy on ration of local worker to foreign worker in effect now. For the time being, only employers operating in four sectors termed 3D — dangerous, difficult and dirty -- are allowed to take in illegal immigrants as workers.”These remarks, including his expectation that the Malaysian government would earn about US$ 22 million from fees imposed on the migrants and employers this year, was deemed by labour groups as being unappreciative of foreign workers.Meanwhile, a Nepali security guard who has been undocumented for the past seven years, is hopeful. He told Nepali Times on the phone from Kuala Lumpur: “I have worked 12-hour shifts everyday even during the pandemic. If I got a job in manufacturing that pays more than what I am making now and can regularise my status, I would apply for it.”Last December, 187,000 foreign nationals including 5,900 Nepalis out of a total of 1.2 million undocumented workers in Malaysia took advantage of the government’s <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/back-to-nepal-for-good/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/back-to-nepal-for-good/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1605344204760000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFy9EIOlHvWdLZeOR6Vjek0Fmksgg">‘Back for Good’ amnesty drive.</a>

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Nepalis in Malaysia to gain from amnesty

<img width="1000" height="1500" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109101116/636b6fee9c7e80680e06004ejpeg.jpg" alt=""/>On 31 December Malaysia's amnesty program for migrant workers called ‘Back for Good’ (B4G) came to an end. By paying RM700 ($170) and tickets back home, the scheme gave undocumented migrant workers an opportunity to return home without facing the penalty of up to RM10,000 ($2,500) for overstaying, and imprisonment of up to five years.Over 17,000 raids were conducted in 2019 alone, and many <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/undocumented-Nepali-migrant-workers-in-Malaysia,3958">Nepali workers</a> were caught up in the dragnet. Nepalis become <a style="letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/undocumented-Nepalis-migrants-in-Malaysia,3967" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/undocumented-Nepalis-migrants-in-Malaysia,3967&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1578141604103000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEte4ElMUleTFbNlMyfaHAxogghGw">undocumented despite being aware</a> of the risks and consequences of getting caught, and some employers are equally involved in the process, but get away with little consequence. "What was different this time was the proactive role played by the Nepal embassy in Kuala Lumpur,” said Dinesh, a Nepali worker living in Malaysia for a decade. “They made sure <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/caught-in-the-middle/migration-agency-exploitation,4003" target="_blank" rel="noopener">fraudulent agents</a> were not involved in the processing to assist those who wanted to benefit from the program."  An employer has to jump through hoops to obtain an approval to hire a foreign worker. A recent World Bank report details a lengthy ten step process involving multiple visits to Malaysian ministries and payment of levy, insurance policy, security bond etc to hire a worker. There are also formalities on the Nepali side including demand letter verification and labour approvals.Alternately, employers can easily poach migrant workers in Malaysia by simply providing a salary premium and avoiding time and financial fees associated with recruitment, and formal costs such as insurance and levies. <img width="640" height="427" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109101116/636b6ff19c7e80680e06004fjpeg.jpg" alt=""><a style="letter-spacing: 0.01em; font-size: 15px;" href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/As-It-Happens/Nepali-migrants-illegal-Malaysia-,718" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Undocumented workers</a> are easier to hire, abuse or fire as they do not have any power to report misconduct. Many workers who are victims of abuse or breach of contract opt to move to the irregular status because there is no option to legally change employers.Many overstay their visas given that a few months of the initial contract are simply spent repaying the recruitment costs that brought them there. Others simply want more freedom, higher income and more hours of work with multiple employers. This can seem like a win-win situation for both until they are caught. In such cases, however, the worker is disproportionately punished. "Employers can easily bribe their way out of the fines and imprisonment they are liable to for hiring an undocumented worker," says Dinesh.Experts say a more comprehensive study on the factors driving millions of foreign workers and thousands of Malaysian employers to opt for irregular hiring can benefit both the sending and receiving countries. Bans and amnesties only scratch the surface of deeper structural issues that drive both employers and workers to opt for irregular channels in the first place.The World Bank estimates that there are over 1.2 million irregular <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/disproportionate-number-of-deaths-of-Nepali-workers-in-Malaysia,2812" target="_blank" rel="noopener">migrants in Malaysia</a>, so the 187,000 foreign nationals opting the B4G program including 5,900 Nepalis points to how many decided to remain despite the appeal of the program and the heightened risks of apprehensions."I have Nepali friends who chose to remain back despite the risks because they are earning well. They live outside the raid-prone areas and feel relatively safer. They are positive that another Amnesty Program will be arranged by the Malaysian Government, by when they will have saved money,” says another Nepali worker.With flights to Kathmandu filled with workers returning from Malaysia, the spotlight is also on <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-and-malaysia-rewrite-rules-for-migrant-labour/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">migration stakeholders</a> in Nepal. Nepal needs to focus on its reintegration policy, our own ‘Back for Good’ program that does not have the same negative and unwelcoming connotation as Malaysia's.Nationalisation policies of Gulf countries have also partially or entirely banned sectors for foreign workers, the finishing up of FIFA related construction projects in Qatar and the geopolitics in the region means more and more <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/paying-an-arm-and-a-leg/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nepali migrants</a> are coming home.The image of the thousands of workers leaving the country gets all the attention in the mainstream press, but on the other side of the airport are <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/stay-home-Nepal-Malaysia-migrants,3037" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nepalis returning home</a> who are not noticed.

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Back to Nepal for good?

Nepali Congress (NC) President Gagan Thapa's candidacy in Sarlahi-4 has thrust this Madhes constituency into rare national focus. If Thapa wins and the NC emerges as the largest party, Sarlahi-4 will send Nepal's next prime minister to Parliament. But if he does not, Nepal’s grand old party will face the next years in the opposition to fight another day. There is a troubling paradox in Sarlahi-4 where the district bordering the Indian state of Bihar has been a battleground for national politicians with fierce electoral competition, all while remaining one of the region's most underserved and underdeveloped constituencies.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485.png" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485" data-rendition-name="original" width="1802" height="1276" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: MADHES PAHARA MEDIA</figcaption> </figure>  Ever since Mahant Thakur split from NC in 2008 to form the Tarai Madhes Loktantrik Party, the district has seen rotating political alliances and fragmented votes. Yet, despite 18 years of candidates promising change irrigation schemes remain incomplete, market access for farmers has not improved, unemployment is high.&nbsp; On election day, voters here marked their ballots with fingers stained by dye from the Holi festival the day before. The road leading to Barathawa Bazar was deserted for the most part, except for some youth riding in motorcycles. This is where the high-profile contest between Gagan Thapa and RSP nominee Amresh Singh is being staged. Among the other aspirants is 27-year-old UML candidate Amnish Yadav, the son of former MP Shiv Pujan Yadav. The Yadavs are a political family with considerable caste influence in the constituency. In 2022 Yadav’s daughter Madhumala Yadav received over 14,000 votes here, ranking third overall. Yadav was voted MP from the Maoist party, but defected to the UML this time. His other son is the chair of Sarlahi’s Ramnagar Rural Municipality. Sarhali-4 has 121,012 voters, and the Yadav is banking on the 27,000-strong Yadav vote bank. Sarlahi-4 voter Avishek Sah told us he wanted his vote to go to a young nominee and not someone who has been MP thrice already, like Amresh Singh. &nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10" data-rendition-name="original" width="1200" height="1600" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  To make local loyalties even more complicated, Amnish Yadav’s uncle, Harinder Yadav is an active NC member and walked side by side with Gagan Thapa during his door-to-door campaigns.&nbsp; The NC is betting on Thapa getting over 60% of the total votes. Amresh Singh’s tally could be limited to 10,000 votes — that too because of the nationwide RSP wave, and the popularity of its prime ministerial hopeful Balendra (Balen) Shah. “Amresh Singh lost his appeal when he played victim after he was denied a ticket by the NC in 2022,” Harinder Yadav says. Voters we spoke to here agreed with this assessment that Singh did not do much for the district once he got elected in the past, and being a part of the RSP seems to be his biggest asset. “The only reason I voted for Amresh Singh is because Balen is in RSP,” local voter Mahendra Gupta from Barathawa. &nbsp;“This is his last chance to return the people’s trust.”&nbsp; Gupta is aware of the institutional presence of the NC here. The party received the most votes in 2022 local elections, adding that the candidacy of someone as high-profile as Thapa is a positive sign for Sarlahi-4.&nbsp; Other voters like Ruby Gupta are rooting for both the NC and the RSP. “I will vote for Gagan and for Balen,” she says, adding that her FPTP vote will go to Thapa while her PR ballot would be for the RSP. RSP supporters are confident that their candidate will win big because even though many voters may not have openly voiced their support they still voted for the party and candidate. The Balen Wave was not limited to RSP voters, but also to UML candidate Yadav, who said in a gathering that he will be “the voters Balen” if they elect him. He touted his party’s track record in government, and largely campaigned on administrative efficiency, infrastructural expansion, and local service delivery. Amresh Singh ran on the RSP’s anti-establishment brand, promising to fight corruption, challenge traditional party politics, improve basic services such as education, health, jobs, and infrastructure, while pushing for stronger representation and development for Madhes.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="1200" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo:AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  Singh’s rivalry with his NC competitor goes beyond the ballot— he allegedly blames Thapa for being denied the NC ticket in 2022, which led him to win the election from Sarlahi-4 as an independent. &nbsp; For his part, Gagan Thapa focused on a more pragmatic development agenda that includes upgrading roads and irrigation, improving schools and hospitals, supporting farmers, and creating employment opportunities with improved governance at the centre. He also promised to build an engineering college in the constituency.&nbsp; Thapa also promoted his own anti-establishment image within the NC, repeatedly reminding voters on the campaign trail that he represents the aspirations of the youth.&nbsp; On Thursday, as voting progressed, there were violent disruptions in two centres where voting was briefly halted. But Sarlahi district police spokesperson Saroj Rai told Nepali Times that there were no major problems. Police in collaboration with the Nepal Army sent the ballot papers to the district’s counting stations, where the votes are expected to be tallied through the night and the winner announced Friday morning.

Sarlahi-4 nervously watches ballot count

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<div class="embed-block"><iframe src="https://election-geo-dashboard.pages.dev/" width="100%" height="700" frameborder="0"> </iframe></div>

Nepal election live results

As this report is uploaded, the latest results in Nepal’s election show that the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) is headed for an even bigger sweep than most had predicted.
The RSP was leading by large margins in 49 of 165 constituencies, &nbsp;with the UML, NC and NCP trailing far behind. Prominent political figures from the old parties like K P Oli, Minwndra Prasad Rijal, Ishwar Pokhrel, Bishnu Prasad Poudel, Bimalendra Nidhi all seem headed for defeat.
It does look like the RSP’s bell election symbol is ringing right across Nepal — from cities to the remotest districts in the mountains and plains. The party’s blue colour is sweeping the land.
The Nepali people seem to have sent a clear message that they were throughly dissatisfied with the chronic failure of the three main parties to work in the national interest to create jobs and deliver development. It was also an expression of lingering outrage over the the 8 September massacre outside Parliament. &nbsp;
It now looks almost certain that Balendra Shah will get to be Nepal’s next, and youngest, prime minister. Hopefully he will be leading a cabinet of competent and honest technocrats. It remains to seen how the power equation between Shah and the RSP’s leader, Rabi Lamichhane will play out.
Lamichhane is out of jail on bail for fraud cases which he has called political vendetta by the previous regime. Both he and Shah are charismatic and ambitious. Their working relationship will determine Nepal's political stability and whether it can avoid the political cronyism of the past.
This election was not just about casting votes. It was about standing up to principles and a value system, and respecting the hopes and aspirations of Nepal’s youth. It to push for transparent government and against impunity — including for the gunning down of young Nepalis in cold blood.
<div class="embed-block"><iframe src="https://election-geo-dashboard.pages.dev/" width="100%" height="600" frameborder="0"> </iframe>Live election results as winners of candidates are announced.</div>
CAN DO MAN
Shah got mixed reviews as mayor. He was impulsive and ad hoc, but most people inKathmandu and beyond liked his can-do attitude and unconventional style which stood in sharp contract to the legacy leaders. Over his three year mayorship he showed more maturity and planning capacity.&nbsp;
But he always ran headlong into opposition from the federal government over his urban planning and other initiatives to make Kathmandu more liveable. Coming from a civil and structural engineering background, he was involved in building low-cost housing after the 2015 earthquake.
But his public persona is more tied to his irreverent rap lyrics that stood up for the marginalised underprivileged in society, while exposing the high-handedness and apathy of the state. But this also exposed contradictions because he also used his own municipal guards to beat and chase away street vendors and squatters.
But there is no doubt that a combination of the sharp messaging in his rap videos amplified by the algorithms of social media ignited Nepal’s youth to rise up. It was more about optics and emotion than policy and strategy.
He studied Kathmandu district for five years, visiting experts in every field before announcing his independent candidacy for mayor in 2022. Many like me in his own constitunecy did not know who he was and where he came from.
He is a year younger than my architect son, and I saw in him a reflection of my own son’s commitment to serving the nation. I voted for him to be mayor despite his sometimes erratic behaviour, which could be attributed to his youth.
The best sign of his strategic planning, which unsettled septuagenarian and octogenarian politicians, is the he did not grab the first easy option of becoming prime minister in September when GenZ activists offered him the post.&nbsp;
Joining RSP was a masterstroke, as was his challenge to Oli in Jhapa to project national branding. He needed a party platform and Lamichhane needed a popular prime ministerial persona since he himself could not hold the post.
Shah has shown the capacity to take risks when he believes the value justifies the action for the country. Now, he will have to show more strategic thinking on a national scale, as well as understand the delicate geopolitics of Nepal.&nbsp;
He must rise above the kind of crude social media posts that earned him followers on X, but did nothing to erase his erratic and impulsive image.&nbsp;
Some assume that behind his trademark RayBan shades is a closet dictator, and his past remarks about Hitler are still up on social media. He has in the past shown impatience with criticism, unleashing supporters on social media to troll detractors.&nbsp;
Even so, the public seems willing to place their hope on an educated young man with integrity and a proven record for planning at the helm. By tomorrow it will be clear whether the hope Nepalis have held has been fulfilled, and the coming years will show if the RSP will lead Nepalis to a better future.
The voters seem to have shown the door even to the NC despite the fact that under Gagan Thapa, the party had turned a new leaf. A strong government under Prime Minister Balendra Shah heading a carefully selected cabinet and a strong opposition of the NC, UML and other parties for check and balance may be just what we need for a stable Nepal.&nbsp;
Nepalis have collectively always shown maturity in elections. This time they have given a resounding endorsement for integrity and for good governance.

Bells ring all over Nepal

After Thursday’s election, Nepalis are in a wait-and-watch mode. The Election Commission says counting ballot papers will be expedited this time, and the results for the First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) will start being declared within days. In 2022, it took three weeks for the final results to be tallied.&nbsp;
But winning an election is only half the challenge for the parties, forming a government under parliamentary politics is like a complicated mathematical equation.&nbsp;
In 2022, the Nepali Congress (NC) emerged as the biggest party, winning 89 seats. But the UML with 78 seats and the Maoists with 32 formed a minority government. In fact, Sher Bahadur Deuba did not become PM then despite leading the biggest party in Parliament.
This time, there is an unmistakeable Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) wave led by its prime ministerial candidate, Balendra Shah. Besides his own popularity, Shah represents change which most Nepalis are clamouring for after decades of corrupt and feckless coalitions that did not deliver.&nbsp;
The past months of campaigning has seen massive youth engagement on social media through memes, AI clips, and viral images. Digital content that appeals to emotion rather than policy debate between candidates shape electoral outcomes in Nepal and elsewhere. &nbsp;
Shah represents GenZ aspirations, and was their candidate for prime minister. It was only when he declined that Sushila Karki was nominated. None of the political parties in the recent past -- new, old, or revolutionary — have won enough seats to go it alone.&nbsp;
The most recent majority government was formed by the short-lived Communist Party of Nepal after the UML-Maoist merger in 2022. But that rare two-thirds majority collapsed after a power struggle between K P Oli and Pushpa Kamal Dahal. The only party to have won a majority was the NC in the 1991 and 1999 elections. But it is near impossible for it to repeat this success now, even with Gagan Thapa's rebranding of the party.&nbsp;
We have compiled these possible scenarios for election outcome in order of likelihood:
RSP gets a majority
RSP hits the magic 138 to form a government entirely on its own. Balendra Shah wins Jhapa-5, and becomes the new prime minister at 35, the youngest ever to hold the office in Nepal. But danger lurks: there could be a personality clash between Shah and Lamichhane who are both equally ambitious. History could repeat itself.&nbsp;
RSP wins but does not get a majority
RSP is likely to sweep the most votes, but what if it does not secure enough seats for a majority? It would need a coalition partner and Nepali Communist Party (NCP) under Pushpa Kamal Dahal could fit the bill, but only if it has the numbers. The RSP is not likely to team up with the UML or NC.
The NCP is relatively untainted by the 8 September events, and also has former UML defectors like Madhav Kumar Nepal and Bhim Rawal who could bag their rural vote banks. After all, there are no permanent foes in politics. If the royalist RPP and Tarai-based Janata Samajwadi have enough seats, those could be options for the RSP. &nbsp;
NC is second
The NC under the new leadership of Gagan Thapa could become the second biggest force and form a government with RSP in a power-sharing deal with Shah. This would be the most stable scenario since the RSP and NC have competent and idealistic young technocrats. Thapa himself embodies a strong combination of both old and new politics to navigate the system for more efficient government. But then Thapa and the RSP's Rabi Lamichhane do not get along.
NC and NCP form a majority
If the NC becomes the largest party but not by a big margin, it could join up with the NCP and Ujyalo. Teaming up with the UML would likely face backlash with the party and outside. If Gagan Thapa becomes prime minister he will face internal pressure from both Deuba loyalists. Same old story.
Minority coalition of NC, UML and NCP
RSP becomes the first party but does not get a majority, paving the way for the three legacy parties to cobble together a minority government. While this is possible in Nepal’s parliamentary system, such a scenario is likely to lead to more instability and dissatisfaction among young Nepalis demanding change, and even trigger street unrest. &nbsp;

illegal-workers

Nepalis in Malaysia to gain from amnesty

Back to Nepal for good?

Sarlahi-4 nervously watches ballot count

Nepal election live results

Bells ring all over Nepal

The magic 138