<figure><img width="640" height="543" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109141136/636bace59c7e80680e077f5djpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption></figcaption></figure>As the global pandemic and shut-downs caused by COVID-19 ripple across the world, they have upset longstanding migration and employment patterns, bringing both challenges and opportunities.One major impact in Nepal is the sudden return of large numbers of migrant workers who have lost overseas employment due to the shrinkage of the global economy. Even if economies in host countries stabilise in the next couple of years, it could be another five before they invite workers back from Nepal. The government faces a major challenge as it attempts to steer returnees toward new livelihoods in Nepal. Which is why it is a good time to consider new ways of harnessing this returned labour pool.The past can inform the present. In 1959, large numbers of Tibetan refugees fleeing the Chinese takeover arrived in Nepal. Timely response to the crisis by development organisations and Nepal government led to the launch of Nepal’s <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=18273" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id%3D18273&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1594484656005000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGixrG9UBfM4KVLAOWjfI4jeZV8XA">Tibetan carpet industry.</a> At its peak in 1993, the sector employed 1.2 million people and brought in one third of Nepal’s foreign currency earnings. The Swiss Red Cross and the <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/So-far-so-good/a-serious-swiss-toni-hagen-nepal,888" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/So-far-so-good/a-serious-swiss-toni-hagen-nepal,888&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1594484656005000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGeujxlpuTHlcPU0o0okKcx3ZswBg">Swiss Agency for Technical Assistance</a> set up the Jawalakhel Handicraft Center to standardise designs and train weavers to provide jobs for the Tibetan refugees by building on their traditional weaving skills. Carpet centers were also set up in Pokhara, Dhorpatan and Solu Khumbu. The Swiss helped market the carpets in Switzerland, and demand for hand-knotted Tibetan carpets from Nepal spread to other European countries. In the late 1970s, upheavals in Iran and Afghanistan led European importers to source carpets from Nepal. Tibetan entrepreneurs took the lead in expanding production using refugee weavers, but it was not long before Nepali workers were trained to meet demand and Nepali entrepreneurs began to invest in the sector. How did the Tibetan refugee crisis become an economic opportunity? Perhaps this 60-year-old disruption and the livelihood opportunities for returnees it provided can be imitated as Nepal attempts to recover from the economic impacts of the pandemic, which includes an estimated 1.5 million migrants returning in the next few years.  One proposed sector is high-value agriculture on under-utilised land in the Tarai and mid-mountain valleys. A high percentage of the returnees come from farming families and are already familiar with the basics. They can acquire the skills required for high-value agriculture once they see the potential returns from growing vegetables and fruits or raising livestock. There is a large domestic market for agricultural products as well as potential for export to India. The amount of food Nepal imports from India annually provides a ready substitution market and the ecological niches provided by Nepal’s many micro-climates provide the opportunity for producing off-season fruits and vegetables which can be exported to India.  <img width="1500" height="1001" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109141136/636bace79c7e80680e077f5ejpeg.jpg" alt="">Increased horticulture production provides jobs to vegetable sellers and transporters. On the supply side, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/greens-from-nepal-in-qatars-desert/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/greens-from-nepal-in-qatars-desert/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1594484656005000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEQa3l5ql3HoZkCbvQY7J1OxU8LzQ">high-value agriculture</a> expands the markets for agrovets — small businesses which provide seeds, fertiliser and crop protection to farmers.  <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/preparing-for-nepals-returnees/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/preparing-for-nepals-returnees/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1594484656005000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEyIO43c6uQIWYUQYfZY0_40_jCOQ">Migrants returning from the Middle East and East Asia</a> have greater management and technical skills than the average population, as well as more financial resources. After living overseas for several years most <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/returnees-need-help-to-get-back-to-farming/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/returnees-need-help-to-get-back-to-farming/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1594484656005000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGtkV7y5GJnDpFLPlq2b8ww3iRQUg">migrants</a> are unlikely to be satisfied with going back to engage in subsistence agriculture in their family fields. Their limited savings will be insufficient to support their families, who have become accustomed to regular transfers of remittances, but the training they might receive from NGOs would enable them to engage in high-value agriculture. The experience of comprehensive agricultural value chain projects such as USAID’s Knowledge-based Integrated Sustainable Agriculture and Nutrition (KISAN II) demonstrates that there is plenty of room for growth in high-value agriculture in the country and there is proven capacity in-country to induct hundreds of thousands of new farmers into the sector. Well-designed development projects can leverage substantial resources from the migrants themselves. Land is currently underutilised in Nepal, with many farmers in the Tarai growing just one crop a year. With irrigation, three crops per year are possible. The government is moving forward with rules to prevent landlords from leaving land fallow and to clarify regulations around leasing of land which returnees can use for growing vegetables and other crops. In most parts of the Tarai, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/nepal-must-keep-water-on-its-land/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/nepal-must-keep-water-on-its-land/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1594484656005000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEgyOCIiZcTzfYiODi3ZF--Ouh_nA">groundwater</a> is accessible through shallow tube wells. The national grid has reached all municipalities in the Tarai and increasing numbers of farmers are able to use electricity for irrigation pumping. Farmers with small plots of up to one acre of land can purchase relatively low-cost solar pumps suitable for vegetables (typical cost is $600-$800), pay for them in monthly installments, or finance them through a 60% subsidy program of the <a href="https://www.aepc.gov.np/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.aepc.gov.np/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1594484656005000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEmzGjevzn66JziClyFuTn0efixFQ">Alternative Energy Promotion Center (AEPC).</a>We estimate that a total investment of $170 million by the Government of Nepal and donors would enable 250,000 farmers with an average of a third of an acre to generate over $2 billion in vegetable sales over five years, with $750 million in annual sales going forward. While the government’s investment of $500 per farmer would be used to reduce the cost of purchasing simple greenhouses and solar pumps, each returnee would spend around $1,540 on seeds, fertiliser, land leases and farm equipment. We anticipate that donors would need to invest around $180 per farmer for training and linkages with private companies, which can supply inputs as well as sustainably market and process what farmers produce. With such programs in place, returning workers would find it much easier to reintegrate into their communities and, if history is any guide, Nepal could find itself with a profitable new market. Bikash Pandey is Winrock International’s Director of Clean Energy. Praveen Baidya is Deputy Chief of Party/Finance of Agriculture and Volunteer Programs at <a href="https://www.winrock.org/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.winrock.org/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1594484656005000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFgo7UYC25v8nVYwsYmRUEwy5JL4g">Winrock International.</a>

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Ways Nepal can rebound from COVID-19

<figure><img width="800" height="1204" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108101156/636a28999c7e80680e04587fjpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Bikram Rai</figcaption></figure>Ever since a picture posted on Facebook of Prime Minister K P Oli and his party co-chair Pushpa Kamal Dahal dining on red rice in the company of one of the most notorious businessmen in Nepal went viral last year, the word ‘Marsi’ has entered the Nepali lexicon not just to describe a nutritious variety of rice from the uplands but the unholy nexus between politicians and tycoons.But what it did do is draw the country’s attention to the importance of rice to our lives as well as the nation’s economy. Rice is more than a staple grain in Nepal, it is a way of life. ‘Bhat khanu bho?’ is much more than a literal question about whether interlocutors have eaten, but a greeting like ‘How do you do?’.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/the-price-of-rice/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Price of rice</a>, Ramesh KumarNearly 70% of Nepal’s population depends directly on agriculture, and the sector contributes more than a quarter of the country’s GDP – with rice making up 21% of that. Till as late as 1985, Nepal used to be a net exporter of rice, and during the 1960s the country was exporting up to $45 million worth of rice to India every year. How the tables have turned, in 2015 Nepal has to import 531,000 tons of rice worth $210 million from India.There are many reasons why Nepal’s production of rice has not kept up with demand. The foremost, of course, is that the country’s population has doubled in the intervening years. Agricultural land is shrinking because of urban sprawl, and much of the farms are fallow because of outmigration. The educated youth do not want to live off the land anymore, and look for salaried jobs in the cities or abroad. Productivity has not increased by as much as it should have, nearly 80% of farms still depend on rains since there has been very little progress in irrigation – this in turn has made farmers vulnerable to erratic weather caused by climate change.But there is a silver lining. As our reportage in this edition (page 8-9) shows, a healthy monsoon allowed paddy harvests to increase by 9% up from the previous year, reaching 5.6 million tons. An ecstatic Finance Ministry immediately raised the economic growth rate estimate to 7% this year. Even the IMF revised its previous estimate of 5% growth, and now estimates that Nepal’s year on year economic growth will be 6.5%. The Ministry of Agriculture’s statistics division has calculated that paddy was planted on 97% of fields this Nepali year, up from only 86% in 2074 BS. Paddy yield is still not comparable to other countries in the region that have intensive rice cultivation, but it did increase by about 8% to 3.67 tons per hectare.The long and short of it is that Nepal’s <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/productivity-empowerment-and%20job-with-mechanization-and-cooperative-in-agriculture,2378" target="_blank" rel="noopener">rice economy</a> is rain dependant, the government cannot take credit for the increased paddy harvests. There is precious little successive governments in the past 50 years have done to invest on improving yield, and finding a stable price for produce. The federal government earmarked Rs80 billion last year for agriculture, forestry and livestock, but most of it was spent on salaries and overheads. Donors spent another Rs16 billion over the past seven years to increase agricultural productivity with mixed results.Despite the fact that two-thirds of Nepalis depend on their farms, agriculture is neglected and is just not a priority for politicians and bureaucrats. Twenty percent of farmers are subsistence, and living in extreme poverty. A report by Oxfam last month showed that the skewed distribution of wealth in Nepal is most glaring in land ownership patterns. The richest 7% of households own 31% of the agricultural land. More than 80% of women are landless, and 44% of Dalits in the Tarai do not own any of their own land, and are mostly tenant farmers.As rice economist Rajendra Uprety points out in his op-ed in this edition, paddy imports from India peak during the harvest season in Nepal: indicating that Nepali farmers are not growing what Nepali consumers want. The only reason this is so is because the government has not been able to turn farmers to focus on varieties of rice preferred by consumers, reduce cost of inputs to make rice farming profitable, promote mechanisation and intensive rice cultivation techniques, and unleash a movement for domestic production.This is not rocket science. We know what the problems are, we know the solutions to increase rice production. We just have to help our farmers do it. There is no reason Nepal cannot once more be the granary of South Asia. <h2>10 years ago this week</h2> Nepali Times <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/issue/440" target="_blank" rel="noopener">issue #440</a> of 27 February – 6 March 2009 was about growing unrest in Tarai, elected Maoist government returning to militant extortion, and demands for radical changes: in national flag, the name Nepal, etc. The <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=15697#.XHjUucAzaUk" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Ass spoofed the national dress</a>:Had we not got so used to seeing it being worn by officials, our daura suruwal national dress would look pretty ridiculous. It is a cross between thermal underwear and skirt, and to cover up this embarrassing combination it has a silly western-style jacket and a topi. Our national dress is only slightly less bizarre than the national dress of the Kingdom of Tonga which consists of a reed skirt with a bow tie on a shirtless chest (for men) and a reed skirt with neck scarf on bare chest (for women). Just like a new national anthem, it’s about time we had a new national dress.The Maoist prime minister has taken the lead in modeling a revolutionary national dress which consists of a dark suit, white shirt and red tie with a bhadgaunle topi. It does make him look like one of those rotational monarchs from Malaysia, but the dress is catching on so fast that there is now a severe shortage of topis.<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/issue/440"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108101156/636a289c9c7e80680e045880jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="510" height="816"></a>

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Nepal's rice economy

<figure><img width="1400" height="1190" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107171132/6369335b9c7e80680e03df92jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Catroon: DIWAKAR CHETTRI</figcaption></figure>Forget the horror movies, no more science fiction, stop watching post-apocalyptic Hollywood. We have the real thing coming to a planet near you.If things were not scary enough, the latest report from the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released in Incheon earlier this month paints a terrifying picture of a dying Earth.This year saw record heat waves and droughts across Europe, Australia, Japan and the United States. Every new hurricane and typhoon breaks world records for wind speed. The hottest years since records started being kept were in the last 10 years, but 2018 was just a trailer of what is to come.If the current pace of warming continues, millions will start dying in heat waves across northern India and sub-Saharan Africa by the middle of the century. Droughts, flash floods and storms will be even more intense and frequent, there will be water shortages leading to starvation and famine. Coral reefs will all die, affecting fish populations. Sea level rise will submerge coastal cities, a fourth of Bangladesh’s land area will go underwater, the Maldives will disappear. Nepal’s mountains and glaciers will lose much of their permanent ice.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-cost-of-light/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The cost of light</a>, Om Astha Rai <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=15778&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Electri-city Cars</a>, Sikuma Rai <img width="327" height="327" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107171132/6369335e9c7e80680e03df93jpeg.jpg" alt="">And that is probably the best-case scenario if warming cannot be capped at 1.5o by 2040. In reality, it will probably exceed 2o. By the end of the century, we are looking at average global temperatures at 4o warmer – this means we should replace the term climate change with ‘climate collapse’.Many of us who have been writing about the climate for the past decades have been called ‘alarmists’ or ‘fear mongers’, but this time it is the scientists who are panicking. The reason is that at a time when action on emission reduction is urgent, populist climate deniers are being elected in democracies across the world. It is getting so scary, citizens and politicians are burying their heads in the sand.These alarming changes have happened with just an average 1o warming since the industrial age. The IPCC report makes clear that in the next decades, whether the warming is 1.5o or 2o will make a world of a difference – 1.5o means heat waves will be less severe meaning millions will not die, the polar ice caps will not melt as fast, fewer plants and animals will become extinct, sea level will not rise by as much, fewer coral reefs will bleach. However, the report warns that governments only have 12 more years to implement measures so that global warming will be less than 1.5o.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=15756&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">From a fossil past to an electric future</a>, Om Astha Rai<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=15845&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Decarbonise now</a>, Ajay DixitNow that we know how bad things are, what are we going to do about it in Nepal? For years we have argued that since we did not create the problem, and what we do is not going to save the planet, we should just try to adapt. But, as a new report State of Climate Action in Nepal shows, Nepal also needs to take mitigation action – not so much to slow global warming, but to save the country’s economy from collapse.Despite international treaties Nepal has signed, and successive governments paying lip service to a renewable economy, the country’s fossil energy imports are soaring, including through electricity imports from thermal plants in India. Solar and biogas programs have languished, and there has been nearly no tangible progress on electric public transport.‘Nepal’s move towards a sustainably renewable future is sluggish, and indeed often regressively heading towards more fossil fuel addiction,’ the report concludes.The most glaring lapse is in sustainable harnessing of Nepal’s hydropower. Chronic governance failure and sheer stupidity of our rulers have resulted in Nepal now importing half its electricity from Indian coal-fired plants, doubling our carbon footprint. New hydropower plants are expected to add 2,000MW in the next two years, but these will barely meet suppressed demands and since they are all run-of-river schemes, the winter power shortage will continue.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/climate-for-change/the-great-himalayan-thaw/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The great Himalayan Thaw</a>, Ajay Dixit<a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/interview/interview-with-david-molden-icimod,3074" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nepalis paying price for climate change</a>The number of vehicles is nearing 3 million, with public transport vehicles making up less than 3% of the total, and the number of electric vehicles is negligible. There is weak political will to promote more efficient and reliable public transport because of the lobbying power of bus syndicates. Although taxes for electric vehicles have been slashed (see page 8-9), there is no sign of a proactive strategy to wean transportation from fossil fuels.All this is impacting public health due to a proliferation of two-wheelers and lack of emission controls. The poor condition of roads and highways has decreased the efficiency of vehicular transport, but has increased pollution levels.Much more worrying is that Nepal’s annual spending on petroleum products has <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/from-a-fossil-past-to-an-electric-future/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">more than doubled in the last two years</a>, increasing our trade imbalance with India. Flawed energy policy is not just ruining the environment and bankrupting the country, it is also increasing Nepal’s political vulnerability to the outside world.Read also: <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/reservoirs-of-suspicion/hydropower-geopolitics%20,3991" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Reservoirs of suspicion</a>, Om Astha Rai<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/Comment/storing-water-reservoir-Nepal,1042" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Storing water</a>, Bishal Thapa <h2> 10 years ago this week</h2> In the #423 issue of Nepali Times  of 31 October-6 November 2008, the <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=15330#.W9vq2dUzbIU" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Editorial</a> dealt with the elected Maoist government getting back to business after the holidays on the mattter of integration of thier milita with the national Army. Excerpt: 'Government formation, the prime minister's foreign trips, then there was Dasain-Tihar. Finally, there are no more excuses for the government to start governing. But there is one more potential distraction: army integration. The January deadline for UNMIN's mandate is beginning to focus everyone's minds on dismantling cantonments and containers. Those bankrolling the UN are not in the mood for another extension.Given the extreme posturing and grandstanding by doctrinaire Maoists led by Defence Minister Ram Bahadur Thapa and the centre-right supporters of status quoists in the Nepal Army, integration won't be easy. Thapa's rash public pronouncements, and the kangresis whipping up a storm over rumours they heard that Nanda Kishore Pun was being proposed as army chief has needlessly polarised the debate.'  <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/issue/423" data-elementor-open-lightbox=""> <img width="640" height="1014" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107171132/6369335e9c7e80680e03df94jpeg.jpg" alt=""></a>

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Climate Climax

<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107171116/63692fcb9c7e80680e03c0c4jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1556" height="814"/>During  the upcoming festival of lights called <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/mycity/2014/10/31/tihar-celebrations/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tihar in Nepal</a> and Diwali in India, families will take the opportunity to clean up their valuables, make an inventory of their wealth and store their assets back into a safe deposit box. And explode firecrackers.The big day of Laxmi Puja this year is on 7 November, and people worship the goddess and welcome her home in the hope that she will ensure prosperity in the coming year.Many Nepalis invest in gold or property, and this year everyone will be happy that the value of both have gone up. If you have saved in paper money, a thousand rupee note sadly is now worth only Rs 930 in terms of purchasing power.Last year, <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/business/Business-And-we-all-fall-down,563" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the US dollar</a> was at Rs100 per dollar, this week it is at nearly Rs120. Economists will tell us that the <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/business/Indian-currency-black-market-pushes-rupee-peg-into-debate-again,2752" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nepali rupee is pegged to the Indian currency since 1956</a>, and hence when its value falls the Nepali rupee also falls. India needs to import a lot of oil which is getting more expensive because the United States  imposed sanctions on Iran and Venezuela thus decreasing global supply.There has also been a slowdown in India’s economic growth rate, and the US economy is doing well because American companies are bringing home profits from money invested abroad. All this is impacting Nepal via India.There was a time when Nepalis calculated their wealth in number of elephants (Gajalaxmi), number of cows and piles of manure (Gobardhan). Today, the cost of the dollar is a concern, just as it is to buy wine, electronics, cars, or to spend holidays abroad. One in four Nepalis is living abroad, and they send home hard currency, which means the festival of <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/issue/167/Culture/5035#.W81543szaUk" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Laxmi Puja</a> will see greater spending than before. This is why despite the Nepali economy having tanked, spending power is high.For tourists visiting Nepal, everything will seem cheaper, but hotel rooms, air tickets, tour packages are all priced in dollars and therefore should really make no difference. They are going to be irritated that entrance fees to Nepal’s conservation areas have gone up since they got on the flight to Nepal.Ideally for those exporting goods and getting paid in US dollars, the situation is rosy, unless you have component inputs like oil, machine parts, ingredients that have US dollar price tags.While everyone complains that everything is getting more expensive, few blame the political parties for the state of the economy. Even fewer demand the Central Bank to “do something”. Should the Nepali currency be un-pegged or should we set a new peg-rate to the Indian currency? Do we need to close the Nepal-India border before we do that? The regulators in China get accused of devaluing their currency to help exports, should Nepal use this opportunity to boost exports?Decisions like these require sound market information which we seem to lack. We rely on tables and indices made by donors and multilateral agencies. One thing we can be sure of is that there will be a seminar on the topic of the falling rupee after Laxmi Puja. Experts will present their views and proceedings will be recorded. Bureaucrats will line up to go on foreign-funded fact-finding junkets to study the impact of currency drops.Actually, the falling value of the Nepali currency against the US dollar is an advantage for Nepalis who depend on remittances, or for those who want to produce and export. It is a really bad deal for those who depend on imports, or those <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/migration-certificate/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">sending children off to study abroad</a>. For those earning in dollars and spending in Nepali rupees, things could not be better. For the poor who have no money this whole discussion is a waste of time.Anil Chitrakar is President of Siddharthinc.

Anil Chitrakar

Dollar Laxmi

The monsoon has got bad press because Nepal’s tourism operators actively told visitors to avoid <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/managing-the-monsoon?%2F">the rainy season</a>. It is time to change that. The reason can be found right here in the vast alpine meadows of Central Nepal where this time of year you can walk on velvet grass of pastures abloom with delicate pink, red and yellow flowers as the mist rolls up the valley. There is no sound except the hum of bumble bees. &nbsp;&nbsp; There are dozens of places across high Nepal called Chaurikharka, which means yak pasture. But this particular Chaurikharka in Rukum East located at an altitude of 4,000m stands out for its serene beauty, rustic charm and bucolic setting. There is just the occasional chime of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/when-yaks-go-so-does-culture">yak bells</a> in the distance, and the sharp whistle of herders corralling sheep. &nbsp;&nbsp; The grass shoots are so fragile that one hesitates to step on them, the rounded ridges appear and quickly vanish in waves of mist. With the<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/before-the-next-monsoon"> arrival of monsoon</a>, these meadows are a soothing shade of green dotted with millions of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/review/the-anatomy-of-a-flower?%2F=">multi-coloured flowers</a>. Until very recently, it took a week or so to hike up to places like Chaurikharka, but with the expansion of the road network even to these far-flung mountains in the lap of Dhaulagiri, they are much more accessible. It is just a three-hour uphill from the Mid-Hill Highway on the border between Baglung and Rukum East.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250802130828_a0b06b494d751b2144ffbbf10894ea64b29e8aed844bc8c66171783abfaf4e16.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20250802130828_a0b06b494d751b2144ffbbf10894ea64b29e8aed844bc8c66171783abfaf4e16" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1365" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon"> </figure>  Purists would say that such easy access devalues the sanctity of these remote high meadows, but it also means more people will be moved to treasure the experience, appreciate <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/natures-fragile-gift-to-nepal">the value of nature </a>so they can take steps to protect it.&nbsp; To be sure, the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/deadly-monsoon-in-nepal-turns-deadlier">monsoon season can be challenging for road travel</a>. The roads are rough even at the best of times, and in the monsoon they become muddy and treacherous, often blocked by<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/monsoon-deluge-in-nepal"> landslides</a>. But that could be precisely the kind of adventure that the more intrepid visitors crave. Improved road connectivity has already made Chaurikharka and places like Badimallika &nbsp;and other sacred lakes in the mountains of western Nepal popular with domestic tourists. What is driving this traffic is the urge to go to exotic new places and share videos and selfies on social media. Several of Nepal’s travel vloggers have visited Chaurikharka and popularised the place, enticing followers on TikTok or YouTube to retrace their footsteps. But even as they become more popular, these fragile and once-remote places should be protected from over-tourism.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110736_f97110b7cdc3e7f80d5877690948fc9f4c95a09c583deb23b07355491e6c5446.jpg" data-media-id="editor_8" data-image-id="20250731110736_f97110b7cdc3e7f80d5877690948fc9f4c95a09c583deb23b07355491e6c5446" data-rendition-name="original" width="1083" height="699" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon NT"> </figure>  <h2>INCREASING FOOTFALL</h2> Chaurikharka is located in Bhume Rural Municipality of East Rukum, near the scenic valley of Dhorpatan in Baglung district. Even in the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/monsoon-culture">middle of the monsoon</a>, there is a steady stream of Nepali hikers trooping to these high pastures – especially during festival days like Saune Sankranti which this year was on 17 July and actually marks the auspicious beginning of the monsoon here. “This year the rains have not been as heavy and there have been some clear mornings when we could see everything from Dhaulagiri to Machapuchre,” says Khageswar Bhandari, who trekked up here from the road. “The flowers, the greenery and the snowy mountain views make this an incredibly unique place.”&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250802130824_1b9e26f2e9853fdfe69154bb42a7c9ea6da4bf4940efc1da99b304dcfbd7d3d9.jpg" data-media-id="editor_10" data-image-id="20250802130824_1b9e26f2e9853fdfe69154bb42a7c9ea6da4bf4940efc1da99b304dcfbd7d3d9" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1152" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon"> </figure>  Chaurikharka is worthwhile to get to in any season, but it has a different charm during the monsoon. Word has spread and because it is now easy to get to from Baglung or even Pokhara, people have been flocking here.&nbsp; “Holidays and Saturdays see the largest crowds, with up to 500 visitors every day,” says ward chair Mankaji Pun of Bhume.&nbsp; There was a time not too long ago when local herders brought sheep, goats, cows, buffaloes, horses, and mules to graze here during the monsoon. Although there are still livestock around, animals have been replaced by visitors taking selfies. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-monsoon-and-nature-s-arithmetic">The monsoon, and nature’s arithmetic</a>, Tom Robertson Ward Chair Pun says infrastructure development is his main priority. A foot trail to Chaurikharka was built last year by the Tourism Division Office in Kohalpur, but access via the Raniwas-Koipa road section still remains challenging.&nbsp; “If we get more budget, we can improve the road and facilities to make Chaurikharka the main tourist attraction of this region,” says Bhume Municipality Chair Hom Prakash Shrestha. “After that, we hope to promote Chaurikharka as a top tourist spot.”&nbsp; Economic activity is also picking up with the arrival of visitors, but there seems to be a need to manage the makeshift sheds made of corrugated sheets that spoil the beauty of the place. Tea shops and lodges are also available but facilities are basic. Kuldeep Neupane took a three-day trip from Ghorahi in Dang to visit Chaurikharka recently, and says: “This is an ideal trip to make a quick getaway and let nature recharge your mind and body. And it is much more fun with a tent, to watch the sunrise over the Himalaya or the mist blowing in.”

Visit Nepal in the monsoon

Nepal is graduating to become a developing country on 24 November 2026 after half-century in the Least Developed Country (LDC) category. By 2030, the country hopes to transition to middle-income status.&nbsp; Everone from Prime Minister K P Oli have boasted that this is a matter of national pride, and will have a multiplier impact on trade and economy.&nbsp; But will it make any difference to the average Nepali? Not unless improved governance <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/why-invest-in-nepal">spurs investment and creates jobs</a>.&nbsp; Countries need to meet at least two of the three criteria in two consecutive triennial reviews to be eligible for graduation from LDC. Nepal has consistently met the thresholds for the Human Assets Index (HAI) and the Economic and Environmental Vulnerability Index (EVI) in 2015, 2018, and 2021. But Nepal was recommended for graduation before meeting the per capita <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/nepals-great-income-divide">Gross National Income (GNI)</a> threshold of $1,306. “A major implication of LDC graduation is the loss of preferential market access available through Generalised System of Preferences (GSP) and other arrangements,” explains economist Sameer Khatiwada. “But over two-thirds of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-doesnt-produce-its-2-biggest-export-items">Nepal’s exports</a> are to India, and the preferential market access to India is through a bilateral trade agreement. This has nothing to do with our LDC status.”  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250815060832_f5eabe7628a8cdf84f33b25d7cef3c4dc8913a26d8e5b253ea52a36e176b8a85.jpg" data-media-id="editor_3" data-image-id="20250815060832_f5eabe7628a8cdf84f33b25d7cef3c4dc8913a26d8e5b253ea52a36e176b8a85" data-rendition-name="original" width="640" height="470" loading="lazy" alt="LDC graduation "> </figure>  Furthermore, a provision under the South Asian Free Trade Area (SAFTA) allows Nepal to export to India duty-free if the items are at least 30% value-added. Nepali traders take advantage of this by re-exporting edible oils without meeting that requirement, falsely boosting Nepal’s exports.“ Following graduation from LDC, the value addition threshold might increase to 40%,” says Kalpana Khanal of the Policy Research Institute. “This is supposed to work to our advantage, because on paper value addition inherently means <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/multimedia/staying-home-to-create-jobs">job creation at home</a>.” But Nepal’s exports to other major destinations will face <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-and-the-us-india-tariff-tiff">tariff increases</a> with the graduation. A South Asia Watch on Trade, Economics and Environment (SWATEE) study shows that while tariff increase in the US market is relatively low (see page 5) it is considerably higher in Europe. The International Trade Centre (ITC) in a 2022 study also estimated that graduation could result in a 4.3% decline in Nepal’s projected exports, but this is excluding the impact of changes in ‘rules of origin’ provisions in preference-granting countries such as the UK and Europe.&nbsp; Nepal’s top export to these preference-granting countries is <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=1482">carpets</a>, and will not be impacted, but other items such as textiles and apparel will be heavily affected due to higher cost of production. The impact will felt mostly by small and medium enterprises which represent the largest share of exports to LDC-specific preference-granting countries. As for the service exports, Nepal never really made use of the World Trade Organization’s LDC services waiver anyway, hence the effect will be minimal, if any. There is also concern about Nepal’s graduation at a time when the global economy is topsy-turvy, amidst <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/turning-point-in-us-india-relations">tariff wars and conflicts</a>. This affects Nepalis abroad directly and may impact <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/more-remittance-more-than-remittance">remittances </a>which hit $11 billion in 2024. In comparison, Nepal only received $350 million in foreign loans and grants last year.&nbsp; Tourism arrivals have finally reached pre-pandemic levels, but bad publicity about pollution, poor infrastructure and bureaucratic hurdles hinder further growth. Manufacturing continues to struggle, while hydropower and the IT sector have taken off.&nbsp; “Look at data -- <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/tourism-needs-a-new-push">tourism arrivals</a> are up, spending is up, IT exports are up, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/why-nepal-needs-to-restore-ev-tax-subsidy">EV sales </a>are up, Europe still needs 85-90 million skilled workers. We are sitting on $16 billion in cash reserves, our balance of payment, foreign exchange reserve, tax to GDP ratio, credit flow are all positive, we have to build on these factors,” says Sujeev Shakya of the Nepal Economic Forum. He adds: “Our mindset creates negativity to promote rent-seeking behaviour, but this cynicism will go away after 2026 with LDC graduation. We must deal with data, look at trends, and projects which will bring in <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/from-the-nepali-press/why-there-is-no-foreign-investment-in-nepal">international investments</a>.” Khanal agrees that investment is not dependent on<a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/backside/Nepal-not-the-least-developed-country,306"> LDC status</a>. The factors that that affect investment are policy stability, a strong legal framework, market potential and ease of doing business. She adds, “That is where our focus needs to be, and we need to retain <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/diaspora-diaries/migrant-worker-returns-to-create-work-at-home?fbclid=IwAR09xJfsClCwn8uRVAmz28CU658vdKpuyDwB_b1sNlvKtAFFnSldnA0JS2g">Nepalis with jobs at home</a> for our sustained growth.” After 2026, financing support from donors and aid agencies could be affected and Nepal will no longer be able to access Least Developed Countries Fund (LDCF) to adapt to the impacts of climate change. But the Global Environment Fund and Green Climate Fund will still be available.“ LDC status does not determine bilateral development aid, that is usually driven by broader <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/looking-beyond-two-boulders">geopolitical considerations</a>,” says Sameer Khatiwada. “The World Bank and Asian Development Bank, which provide concessional loans to Nepal, it is determined mainly by per capita income, not LDC status.” &nbsp;However, Nepal may lose some concessional terms for loans. Nepal is currently a lower-middle-income country as per the World Bank in the bracket for GNI between $1,036 and $4,045. The country is already receiving more loans than grants and in July the World Bank increased its interest rate on loans by 100% from 0.75 to 1.5%. “All this means that the impact of LDC graduation for Nepal might not be as earth-shattering as some tend to think. Countries that have recently graduated, such as Botswana and the Maldives, have shows that graduation is just a step in a country’s development path,” says Khatiwada. Sujeev Shakya also sees the glass as half full, explaining that LDC graduation is just a stepping stone if Nepal has the right policies in place. He adds, “Nepal’s biggest advantage is our<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/investing-in-people"> working age population</a> and we have investments coming in. These aided by how adaptive we are as a society are the very foundations on which Nepal will grow.”

Not poor, but not rich

Two weeks ago, Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli announced jubilantly on social media that Nepal had achieved a historic annual growth of 81.8% in exports. He was right. Nepal’s trade did take a great leap forward compared to last year. But the dramatic rise was mainly due to processed soya bean oil.&nbsp; However, Nepal does not produce the edible oil it exports. In fact, the soya and palm oil that make up 44% of total exports are imported from Southeast Asia and South America, and simply re-exported, mostly to India.&nbsp; Under the SAFTA (South Asian Free Trade Area) Agreement, Nepal can export products to India duty-free if it has at least 30% value-added. Nepal’s traders have taken advantage of SAFTA even though the edible oils they export do not reach that value addition threshold. “The 30% value addition requirement is often only on paper,” says former commerce secretary Purushottam Ojha. “It is clear that simply packaging edible oils in Nepal does not fulfil the terms of the trade agreement.” Prime Minister Oli is aware of this, and even called Nepal’s export figures “fake” at an earlier event. The government is relying on other iffy figures to suggest that Nepal’s economy is strong and getting stronger. For example, the value of imports rose by 13.25% in 2024-25 compared to the previous fiscal year.&nbsp; Some of it was due to a jump in electric vehicle imports worth Rs 31.76 billion, but mostly it was because more wholesale soya oil was imported to be re-packaged and sold in India. The very fact that the government boasts about increased imports is an indication of how much it relies on taxing them for revenue. Touting such trade figures cannot be the basis to claim an economic rebound.&nbsp; “A jump in the value of imports can be interpreted as an increase in purchasing power, but it is not evidence of a stronger economy,” says economist Keshav Acharya. “Even though imports have increased, Nepal's domestic production and productive capacity have not improved.” Nepal Rastra Bank's semi-annual economic activity study report shows that industrial production was down in the first six months of the last fiscal year. This despite an increase in the number of new industries registered and investment commitments. Out of the Rs70.2 billion proposed foreign investment, Nepal received only Rs17.9 billion last year.&nbsp; Meanwhile, the rate of capital formation was limited to 24% last year, which is lower than the year before, suggesting that new investment, job creation and economic expansion all declined. If domestic production does not improve in relation to this year’s inflated trade figures, the outflow will put pressure on foreign exchange reserves like it did three years ago. At that time, Nepal borrowed from the IMF under its Extended Credit Facility Program to kickstart the economy.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025080710084_2cdaaa5795828c4a7de93a0604ba884ef0a8b8f24cccd939f6c24e279ab6058f.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="2025080710084_2cdaaa5795828c4a7de93a0604ba884ef0a8b8f24cccd939f6c24e279ab6058f" data-rendition-name="original" width="1633" height="723" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal's bubble economy NT"> <figcaption>Source: NEPAL RASTRA BANK</figcaption> </figure>  The macroeconomy is on firm footing with foreign exchange reserves at a comfortable Rs2,520 billion in May, up 23% from last year. This was largely due to remittances, and partly due to a falling NPR exchange rate. Real estate transactions and the stock market index have also been climbing as a result of government policies to revive the sector.&nbsp; However, former executive director of Nepal Rastra Bank Nar Bahadur Thapa cautions: “This is not organic growth, it is the result of deliberate policy decisions to relax rules on real estate and stock markets transactions.” In reality, the sharp rise in land prices have increased the cost of production, and excessive monetisation of the real estate has become the main source of Nepal’s economic woes. The central bank has announced a slew of new policies, shifting the terms of loan repayment for industrialists and entrepreneurs, reducing interest rates, and injecting more working capital — all designed to inject adrenaline into the real estate and stock market sectors.&nbsp; When he was governor, Mahaprasad Adhikari made several financial reforms during the latter half of his tenure to stimulate the economy, including tightening credit flow.&nbsp; By the last fiscal year, additional financial reforms had resulted in a credit expansion rate of around 8%. As the pace of credit expansion slows, real estate prices have started to fall. This is actually beneficial to the economy, because it lays the foundation for improvements in land-related entrepreneurship, production, and the construction sector. Just because real estate and the stock market transactions increase, it does not indicate an economic turnaround — especially when manufacturing and productive sector continues to languish.&nbsp; “It is foolish to believe that real estate and the stock market have magically revived our economy. Agriculture employs more than half of the population, but it is in decline. Investment in the productive sector has not increased, and job creation has not increased.” Two years ago, Nepal’s industrialists, business leaders, and political leadership predicted a recession amidst a sluggish business, declining market demand, large-scale job loss, and a shrinking real estate and share market.&nbsp; Still, the economy grew by 3.36% in fiscal year 2023/24. In fact, Nepal’s economy has grown nominally over the last two decades even when all sectors of the economy are in decline.&nbsp; Says Keshav Acharya: “The growth in trade, real estate, and the stock market are bubbles. The real economy remains stagnant.”

Nepal’s bubble economy

The final investigation report on the crash of a Saurya Airlines jet on 24 July 2024 at Kathmandu airport has revealed flaws in the carrier’s technical operation procedures, poor monitoring by the Civil Aviation Authority of Nepal (CAAN) and gaps in the airport’s emergency response. Eighteen people including a child were killed, and only the captain survived as the plane plunged seconds after takeoff, crashing within the airport perimeter. This was the latest in a series of aircraft accidents in previous years, and further tarnished Nepal’s already poor aviation safety record and contributed to the country being retained in the EU’s air safety list. &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; The circumstances in the Saurya crash were different from the Yeti Airlines crash in Pokhara in January 2022 that killed all 72 on board, and two Tara Air crashes in February 2016 and May 2022 on approach to Jomsom that together claimed 45 lives. However, all four tragedies were a result of negligence of carriers and crew, failure to follow procedures, regulatory slackness, and overconfidence. The Saurya crash, especially, was a glaring example of how an ailing airline broke its own rules to allow passengers, including non-employees, a joy ride to Pokhara on a maintenance ferry flight. CRASH REPORT The Final Investigation Report prepared by the Aircraft Accident Investigation Commission and released on the first anniversary of the crash last week carried a long list of rules that were ignored or broken, and of regulatory failure. The first mistake was to cram spares, tools and inflammable chemicals needed for the aircraft’s C-Check in Pokhara into the cargo hold flouting its own ground handling procedures.&nbsp; There was no check-in of passengers, some of whom were not even employees – even though regulations say only flight and maintenance crew should be on board a maintenance positioning flight. Many brought their own luggage into the plane and stored it unsecured in the cabin. There was no flight attendant to give a safety briefing to passengers. The load and trim charts given to the flight crew were rough estimates, and the total takeoff weight of the plane was 18,300kg plus or minus 200 kg. That would still have been all right, but there was a glaring mistake in the speedchart Saurya pilots were using to calculate the minimum takeoff speed (known as VR), and it had been wrong ever since the 21-year-old aircraft entered service with the airline in 2017. FAULTY DATA&nbsp; The Commission probed Flight Data Recorder inputs from previous takeoffs of the Canadian-built CRJ200-LR in 2023-2024 and found that the undetected error in the speedchart had caused the plane to pitch up at an abnormal rotation rate at least 18 times on previous takeoffs.&nbsp; Any rotation rate more than 3°/sec is regarded as unusual. But on at least two occasions, this aircraft with tail number 9N-AME had rotation rates of 5.8°/sec and 5.5°/sec, the second one was when the pilot who survived was flying in March 2024.&nbsp; On this particular day, the plane’s rotation rate was 6.5°/sec, causing it to go into a deep stall soon after takeoff, the Commission report said. Essentially, the plane was not flying fast enough down the runway to take off safely.&nbsp; It is not yet clear whether excess weight, unsecured luggage, wrong centre of gravity were also factors, but relying on a faulty speedchart for the given takeoff weight, the captain flying pulled back on the yoke before the plane had reached takeoff speed and at a pitch angle that was too steep. The investigation report says the plane then went into a deep stall and started banking right with the stick shaking. At this point, the flight officer on the right hand seat is heard on the cockpit voice recorder saying: “Whoa, whoa, whoa. Sir, Sir, Sir…” It then banked left before the pilot flying turned the plane sharply to the right again in an evasive action to avoid the parking aprons of the international and domestic terminals. Had he not done so, there would have been a disaster of a much greater magnitude at Kathmandu airport that day. The plane scraped the runway with its right wingtip, collided with a container having helicopter spare parts, and plunged into a gully east of the runway, exploding in a fireball. The investigation also noted that the impact forces seemed to be survivable for some occupants. The fire trucks took unnecessarily long to reach the site even though it was inside the airport perimeter. The absence of an ICAO-standard runway strip, inadequate rescue drills, lack of training, and a blocked emergency service gate leading to the crash site were cited as other factors. &nbsp;&nbsp; <h2>Timestamp of a Disaster</h2>  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110724_39cdd04693994ce6e55a5b302905c0fa4884fe85bed21ff0779bb1439f3a5725.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20250731110724_39cdd04693994ce6e55a5b302905c0fa4884fe85bed21ff0779bb1439f3a5725" data-rendition-name="original" width="778" height="826" loading="lazy" alt="Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy NT"> </figure>  11:10:34 - The Saurya Airlines CRJ200 on the takeoff roll from runway 02. It had a takeoff weight of about 18,300kg, but the pilot’s speedcard had a previously undetected mistake about the minimum takeoff speed. 11:10:55 -The plane with tail number 9N-AME goes into deep stall soon after takeoff because it does not have enough speed to lift its weight. The plane also has an abnormally steep nose-up attitude.&nbsp; 11:11:03 - Without enough speed to generate lift, the plane banks right, then left and right again in CCTV photos taken from the domestic apron (below). If it had not banked right, it could have hit the aprons and terminal buildings. Seen parked is Saurya’s other CRJ200 with tail number 9N-ANM.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110732_608132f7225c649125cca2691dd6a6bf930984c5b359e888d7ad9e5eacce3afd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20250731110732_608132f7225c649125cca2691dd6a6bf930984c5b359e888d7ad9e5eacce3afd" data-rendition-name="original" width="770" height="555" loading="lazy" alt="Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy NT"> </figure>  11:11:08 - The plane scrapes the runway with its right wingtip, and falls into the gully. The captain is thrown off the left side of the cockpit and survives. 11:11:15: Plane explodes in a fireball inside the airport perimeter. Firefighters take time to reach the site because of lack of access road and a blocked gate. Read the full investigation report <a href="https://www.tourism.gov.np/files/9N-AME%20AIC%20Final%20Report.pdf">here</a>.