<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110161132/636d19939c7e80680e0ac827jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="664" height="450"/><figcaption></figcaption></figure>Even as Nepal tries to recover from the impact of the pandemic, the country’s economic indicators released this week by the central bank show dismal performance in the first two months of the fiscal year.The report by the Nepal Rastra Bank shows that Nepal’s foreign currency reserves fell to $11.1 in mid-September, 6.6% below the figure for last year, this is enough to pay for only 8 months of total imports.Even more worrying is that <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/defying-predictions-nepals-remittances-still-high/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">overseas remittances that had held steady despite the pandemic</a> for the past two years have now started declining. Nepalis abroad sent home Rs155 billion in the past year, which is 6.3% below the same period last year.Despite the pandemic, remittances had risen by 8.1% in fiscal year 2019-2020. Experts attributed that to overseas workers sending money home as the economic crisis hit families back home, and not necessarily due to higher earnings.The concurrent decrease in foreign currency reserves to finance <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/blood-sweat-tears/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Nepal’s imports, mainly of petroleum</a>, food and other commodities, is seen as an indicator of an impending economic crisis. The main reason for the current downturn is shrinking remittances, which prop up Nepal’s economy.Indeed, compared to 2019-2020, the past year has seen a steep 76% increase in imports to a record Rs352 billion, mainly due to a rise in the import of petroleum products, gold, silver and other items, according to Rastra Bank figures.Even though exports went up by 115% in the same period to Rs44.4 billion, it did not put much of a dent on the trade deficit which has risen to Rs270 billion in the past two months of the fiscal year. This represents a 71% increase in the trade gap compared to last year.The <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-less-and-less-able-to-feed-itself/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">growing asymmetry between imports and exports</a> means that the country’s balance of payments situation is now Rs83.4 billion in the red — up from Rs38.7 billion in July.With the alarm bells ringing, the government has drastically reduced the amount of money Nepalis can officially exchange before traveling abroad from $1,500 to $200-500. This week, further austerity measures were announced, including a ban on the purchase of vehicles for official use.The negative trend in economic indicators could not have come at a worse time. Just as the country was recovering from the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/the-real-cost-of-nepals-second-wave/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">economic impact of the pandemic</a>, it was hit by extreme rainfall this month which killed more than 110 people across the country, and destroyed up to one-third of the country’s ready to harvest rice crop.The Ministry of Agriculture estimates that nearly 90,000 hectares of rice fields were severely damaged by <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/post-monsoon-rain-ruins-nepals-crops/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">the unseasonal post-monsoon rains</a>, and paddy losses will amount to more than Rs8 billion. Lumbini Province is said to have suffered the worst, with more than half of the initially reported damage nationwide.The unprecedented destruction comes just as farmers and officials were optimistic about a healthy rice harvest because of a healthy monsoon season. Rice is such an important component of Nepal’s economy that it will impact on the GDP, economic growth, and have a knock-on effect on the trade deficit because more rice will now need to be imported.Last year Nepal produced 5.6 million tonnes of rice from 1.4 million hectares of paddy fields, up 1.3% from the previous year. However, rising income levels of Nepalis has also meant that rice consumption is growing, and the country had to import Rs 51 billion worth of rice last year, compared to only Rs23 billion in 2019.Analysts say the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/are-nepalis-really-eating-more-rice/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">sharp increase in rice imports</a> cannot be attributed only to rising consumption, explaining it by the rise in demand from Nepal’s breweries and the dramatic rise in domestic beer consumption.

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Nepal’s remittances, forex reserves drop

<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108101128/636a21709c7e80680e04173ejpeg.jpg" alt="" width="730" height="886"/>In 1991, India’s foreign exchange reserves almost emptied when the country’s balance of payments collapsed. The Central Bank eventually averted a full-blown crisis, but poverty in India increased in the years that followed. Manmohan Singh was finance minister, and he introduced dramatic economic reforms that unleashed India’s economy and has been the foundation of its growth.Today, Nepal is at the risk of facing the same crisis India experienced three decades ago. There is a net outflow of foreign exchange, as remittance income fails to keep pace with the growth in <a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/from-a-fossil-past-to-an-electric-future/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">imports, mainly petroleum. </a>Nepal’s foreign exchange reserves currently can sustain only 7 months and 26 days of imports, compared to 14 months and 3 days as recently as 2016. (See graph above) Nepal Rastra Bank also calculated that in the first four months of the fiscal year, Nepal’s balance of payments deficit stood at Rs57 billion and in just the last month it increased by Rs22 billion.“The current rate of increase in the balance of payments deficit will be a huge crisis in the future,” warns Bijaya Nath Bhattarai, an ex-governor of Nepal Rastra bank.Read also : <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=18194#.XC73rFUzbIU" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Hydrocratic dreams</a>, Ratna Sansar Shrestha Nepal’s over-dependence on <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/kleptocrats-of-kathmandu-and-kualalampur/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">remittance </a>is deepening the crisis. Among different sources of foreign exchange for a country such as investments, exports, or tourism, remittances from overseas workers is the most unreliable income source because it can easily be affected by political tension and conflicts. Nepal’s remittance income is also not ploughed into productive sectors, and is mostly used up in paying for imported consumer goods and energy.Some 65% of Nepal’s total import bill is paid through remittances, while exports constitute only 6% and investment only 17% of Nepal’s annual foreign exchange income that is used to pay for imports. But even with all these sources combined, Nepal cannot meet 12% of its import bill, which is what is leading to the balance of payment deficit. The country has been forced to dip into its foreign exchange reserves to meet the gap.In the first four months of the current fiscal year, Nepal imported goods worth approximately Rs400 billion while exports were only worth Rs29 billion. Even though this is a tremendous difference, finance minister <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/calendar-of-economic-change/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Yuba Raj Khatiwada</a> admits that what worries him more is the gap in the service sector. Most of the current outflow is for energy and vehicle imports, while there is also a huge outflow due to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/migration-certificate/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">students</a>, medical patients and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/where-are-you-going-this-dasain/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nepalis vacationing abroad</a>. Nepali tourists spent Rs35 billion abroad in the four months of this fiscal year, but foreign tourists spent only Rs25 billion in Nepal during the same period.This deteriorating balance of payments deficit may compel the government to adopt a restrictive monetary policy, but economist Keshav Acharya explains that this will mean only two choices for the government: “Either the government must take foreign loans, or reduce imports to prevent the outflow of hard currency.”The easiest step would be to borrow, but ex-governor Bhattarai notes that adhering to the strict conditions of the donors might be very painful for Nepal as it has been for other countries. Moreover, the crisis may also lead to policies to stop Nepalis going abroad, and limit imports to only basic goods.The CEO of Nepal Rastra Bank Nar Bahadur Thapa says, “If the balance of payments deficit and growth of imports continues at the present rate, we may not be able to import even the goods needed for development projects.”It is accepted practice that an import-dependent country without a sustainable source of foreign currency needs to maintain foreign exchange reserves to handle at least six months of imports. But with Nepal’s total annual export meeting only 24 days of imports, Nepal Rastra Bank’s policy is to maintain foreign exchange reserves to last at least 8 months.If not, depleted reserves can put pressure on Nepali fixed <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/12-full-opinion/dollar-laxmi/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">exchange rate </a>with Indian currently at Rs160. If that happens, there will be ruinous capital flight to India, as has occurred in the past. Ex-governor Krishna Bahadur Mandandhar says that the government and the central bank still have time to remedy the situation by limiting imports of luxury items. But this could lead to an expansion in the black market.Earlier this year, when the government applied quantitative restrictions on the import of sugar, the price immediately shot up by Rs5 per kg. Worse, if there is a devaluation of the Nepali rupee it will raise inflation and that could lead the economy into a downward spiral.Experts advise that while the central bank needs to be free from political interference to stabilise the economy, the government and the central bank must coordinate their actions. In the longer-term, there is no other way but to attract investors by increasing the competitiveness of the Nepali economy and increase exports.

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Nepal’s remittances, forex reserves drop

Nepal living beyond its means