Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and US President Trump have had a love-hate relationship. The two populist leaders have now fallen out, threatening a full scale Indo-American trade war. Many of Nepal’s exports to the United States like garments and rugs are also what India sells to the US. So, after Donald Trump announced additional tariffs on Indian exports to total 50%, Nepal could have an advantage. But this is only if the government plays its cards right and develops a long term strategy to boost export of items in which it has comparative advantage, and find new export products. The recent fallout ostensibly comes after India ignored western sanctions and continued to purchase Russian oil, and could be linked to Trump’s meeting with Russian president Vladimir Putin in Alaska on Friday in which he wants to use India as a bargaining chip. “Trump has not honoured any international trade agreements, making the global trade regime unstable,” says economist Posh Raj Pandey. This could mean that the US could still pull back on tariffs, just as he has given China a reprieve of another 90 days this week. Compared to other South Asian countries, including India, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, Nepal faces a relatively low tariff rate of 10%. Theoretically this could put Nepali exports at an advantage for items like garments and other products like tea. But it also carries its own risks.  <figure><img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250814090852_1d2fe71e4f7c5f82d72240714c6a7a140d59230096eac995ca3264a5c2ed00a2.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20250814090852_1d2fe71e4f7c5f82d72240714c6a7a140d59230096eac995ca3264a5c2ed00a2" data-rendition-name="original" width="1266" height="860" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal-US trade graph NT"></figure>  Some 64% of Nepal’s imports are from India, and US tariffs could make those products more expensive. A stronger USD vis-a-vis the INR would also devalue the Nepali rupee and increase the cost of imports from India of raw material for its exports, for example, garments. The manufacturing sector in Nepal has never reached its true potential, its main export items to India are soya and palm oil which are actually just bulk imports of the same oils repackaged for export. Domestic production lacks capacity to keep up with demand. “Nepal’s productive capacity must be increased in order to boost exports, and the market should be diversified for Nepal to take advantage of a competitive market,” says Pandey. Indian exporters could try to reroute their finished products through the open border with Nepal, changing the tag from ‘Made in India’ to ‘Made in Nepal’ to avoid US tariffs. China did this by relocating its factories to Vietnam in the past, but such re-labelling may result in punitive measures. “It is not worth the risk, we should be careful. Besides, there is no domestic value addition in such cases,” states Kharel. Nepal has a trade deficit with the US of Rs7.64 billion, which is probably why Trump has not increased tariffs on Nepal’s exports to more than 10%. Nepal’s main exports to the US are ready-made garments, dog chews and carpets. Nepal had preferential market access to the US, but did not take much advantage of it. “Nepal’s garment export to the US stands at Rs2 billion, and we could try to increase production and export more to take advantage of relatively lower tariffs, but reaching production worth Rs10 billion is not practical and Nepal does not have the capacity either,” says Pandey. Furthermore, if Nepal increases exports to the US and creates a trade surplus, it may raise eyebrows in Washington and Nepal could be slapped with higher tariffs if Trump is still around. In a modern multilateral world, Donald Trump has pressed ahead unilaterally, using tariffs to arm-twist allies to get all kinds of concessions, even those not related to trade. Trump thinks he is doing this to protect the domestic US industry, but it is already backfiring with higher domestic consumer prices. Adds Pandey, “Trump has used the tariffs as a Swiss Army knife to cut through everything. The tariffs are used as an instrument for national security, to increase investment and even to end conflict.” Trump claimed he initiated the ceasefire between India and Pakistan over their recent conflict by threatening both countries with tariffs. New Delhi denied Trump’s claims, while Pakistan acknowledged his role, even nominating him for the Nobel Peace Prize. REGIONAL HEGEMON “India had wanted to establish itself as a regional hegemon by aligning itself to the West,” says Paras Kharel, executive director at South Asia Watch on Trade, Economics, and Environment (SAWTEE). But the tariff tiff with India may have thrown that strategy off kilter. Most countries use diplomatic channels to resolve existing trade issues. However, Trump has chosen the path of coercive diplomacy, which was seen in his response to issues like migration and the use of veto power at the United Nations. India is the world's third largest consumer of oil, with Russia accounting for 30% of the country’s oil imports. Russia was also the largest arms supplier for India, but that has decreased in recent times, as India shifted towards the US, Israel and France. India is the largest arms importer in the world, and is making more and more purchases from American manufacturers of weapons systems. But India has already retaliated by cancelling planned imports of military equipment from the US. Uncertainty looms large as Trump’s volatile flip-flopping upends global trade. The unpredictability was underlined by Trump extending his tariff truce for China by 90 days, saying Beijing "has been dealing with it nicely". The tariff threat on Indian exports could also be similarly postponed if New Delhi appeases Trump with compromises. But Modi seems in no mood to give up India’s national interest, especially by allowing American agricultural imports. Modi is all set to visit China for the first time in seven years for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Summit on 31 August in Tianjin. This could signify the beginning of a major realignment in geopolitical alliances in the Asia-Pacific. Nepal is a small player, but when India and China are buffeted by global turbulence, it will rock Nepal as well. Nepal therefore needs to boost trade capacity to take advantage of new opportunities. Says Pandey, “Nepal needs to diversify its exports, find new markets and seek alternative finance sources.”

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Nepal and the US-India tariff tiff

The post World War II <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/review/west-is-west">decade of the 1950s</a> saw the dismantling of colonial systems, establishment of a new world order with the United States replacing Britain. <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/peacemongers-at-india-pakistan-border">India and Pakistan</a> had just gained independence and were still traumatised by partition.&nbsp; In China, Mao Zedong came to power after 20 years of revolution, and promptly annexed Tibet. The <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/a-new-cold-war-in-the-himalaya">Cold War</a> between the US and the Sino-Soviet alliance led to proxy wars in Korea and Vietnam. In Nepal itself, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/inside-story-of-nepal-s-rana-dynasty">the Ranas</a> were replaced by <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/history-on-canvas">the Shahs</a> in 1951, and ten years later <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/last-days-with-bp-koirala">BP Koirala</a> became the first democratically elected prime minister — soon deposed in a coup by King Mahendra. Nepal opened up to the world and tried to keep a delicate balance between global and regional powers. The book, Nepal in the Long 1950s, explores politics, economics and the socio-culture milieu in the decade following the end of the Rana rule. Edited by researchers Pratyoush Onta, Lokranjan Parajuli and anthropologist Mark Liechty, the book is a collection of 10 essays, the first six of which place <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/the-geopolitics-of-nepal-s-politics">Nepal in the larger geopolitical context</a>, while the last four explore the role of foreign specialists and institutions in reshaping Nepal. Prawash Gautam examines how the last years of <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/the-rana-reign-a-recap-of-history,3751">Rana rule</a> were marked by looser controls, enabling the emergence of the public sphere. One tea shop near Dharara became a space for socialisation, discourse, as well as political organisation.&nbsp; However, while this teashop was unique in that it allowed customers from ‘lower’ caste communities, Gautam says <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-s-caste-struggle">caste-based discrimination</a> and limited access to women still prevented public spaces from <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/everybody-counts-in-nepal">being inclusive</a>. Bandana Gyawali writes about how the Nepali notion of unnati (progress), was replaced by the concept bikas (development), a ‘more democratic’ term championed by the American aid programs that associated development with material gain which at the time meant little to Nepalis.&nbsp; Peter Gill’s chapter discusses efforts to legislate and implement socio-economic reform, including birta abolition, tenancy rights, and land distribution. However, he writes, these reforms were ultimately a populist tool used by new leaders for political gain. Sharad Ghimire delves into the state’s disaster response in the aftermath of<a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/60-years-after-1954-devastating-flood-same-failings-of-government-today-post-quake,2433"> the deadly 1954 floods</a>. Political incompetence and attempts to politicise the crisis led to the failure of relief led by Prime Minister M P Koirala, ultimately deepening rifts between himself and leaders of the ruling coalition — giving King Mahendra the chance to assert himself.&nbsp; Meanwhile, the US answered Nepal’s call for help in <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/disastrous-management-in-nepal">disaster management</a> to curb possible Communist influence in Nepal, much to India’s annoyance. Pratyoush Onta examines how <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/kingdom-lost-republic-gained">post-Rana politics</a> encouraged Nepalis to realise their intellectual freedom and pursue knowledge creation and distribution. The formation of the short-lived Nepal Sanskritik Foundation, set up by political leaders, scholars, and intellectuals like Bal Chandra Sharma and Isvar Baral who had witnessed and participated in India’s anti-colonial movements, facilitated social research and knowledge enterprise. Two chapters discuss the development of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/lessons-not-learnt-homework-not-done">Nepal’s education sector</a>. Lokranjan Parajuli looks into how domestic and foreign actors impacted the founding of Tribhuvan University, documenting the role of queen consorts Janti Rajya Laxmi Devi Shah and Queen Ishwari Rajya Laxmi Devi Shah, even as Mahendra remained wary lest it produce intellectuals who would undermine his authority. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/america-nepal-and-the-royal-coup">America, Nepal and the Royal Coup</a>, Tom Robertson India and the US were vying to help TU, writes Parajuli, but China and USSR arrived to also support higher education sector with less strings attached. This led to US and India joining forces, and the US eventually let India take the lead. Susan Heydon’s research into <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/is-free-health-care-possible-in-nepal">Nepal’s healthcare</a> sector reveals that development in biomedicine was in large part due to assistance from Christian missionaries, despite Nepalis’ wariness towards them, visiting foreign <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/grass-is-greener-overseas-for-nepals-doctors">healthcare experts</a>, as well as <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/e75-million-eu-aid-to-nepal-for-covid-19-ckmyfbkq">international aid</a>.&nbsp; As <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/how-usaid-cut-affects-nepal">USAID fund cuts impact Nepal</a>, Jeremy Rappleye’s chapter on the US development assistance and Nepal’s modern education system is relevant read. He recalls how American educator Hugh Wood’s aid-centered blueprint for educational development in the 1950s was incongruous with what Nepali officials wanted. Wood’s model laid the groundwork for <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/teaching-nepali-teachers-to-teach-better?fbclid=IwY2xjawIfg2JleHRuA2FlbQIxMQABHRlYZ7S9dci12M2TMdHcirodLAD3e5OHzlfKW0z07B4plWF8Ofxo88JPfQ_aem_Ka7WIxuhTW0ghPf2qD-Yzg">Nepal’s modern education</a>, writes Rappleye, although it was not entirely appropriate. Former USEF Nepal director Thomas Robertson takes on the US ‘Four Point Program’ aimed at making Nepal reliant on American support. With the region in the grip of the Cold War, the US sought to expand its sphere of influence in Asia, in particular to stop India from going the way of China. Nepal therefore became strategically important to America’s aspirations for the region, writes Robertson. This meant Washington poured aid and into Nepal, including anti-malaria programs and land reform initiatives — in stark contrast to <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/the-great-game-2nd-half">Donald Trump’s current pullout of USAID, MCC and other programs</a>. Mark Liechty ends the book with his exploration of the life and times of Boris Lisanevich and his Hotel Royal which ushered Nepal into the age of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/missing-out-on-nepal-s-tourism-potential">tourism</a>. But Boris was not particularly well versed in the art of hospitality, and while Nepalis in this burgeoning sector realised the opportunities and went about realising those potentials Lisanevich continued to dwell in his anachronistic <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-britain-mark-centenary-of-1923-treaty">colonial fantasy</a> of Nepal, not doing himself any favours.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250220080248_ac072d9d13e541b5d8616f34edb4aae86a8859c6fe44682932408722fa9bff37.jpg" data-media-id="editor_23" data-image-id="20250220080248_ac072d9d13e541b5d8616f34edb4aae86a8859c6fe44682932408722fa9bff37" data-rendition-name="original" width="1136" height="702" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal in the long 1950s"> </figure>

Shristi Karki

Nepal in the world, the world in Nepal

India will not travel to Pakistan for the cricket Champions Trophy this year, and the two countries will play each other at a ‘neutral’ ground.&nbsp; Since cricket diplomacy has been bowled out, can climate diplomacy deliver a googly to be the gamechanger to mend relations between the estranged South Asian neighbours?&nbsp; They can start with addressing crossborder air pollution. The air quality index or AQI in Multan in November was over 2000, Lahore 1000, and Delhi 500 AQI.&nbsp; The average concentration of fine suspended particulate matter (PM2.5) is 11 times higher than the World Health Organization’s acceptable limit. In Pakistan, it is close to 15. Every winter is a season of the gas-chamber in both countries. Thick smog brings life to a standstill in northern India and Pakistan. Delhi set in motion Stage IV of the Graded Response Action Plan for pollution, closing schools, banning construction, &nbsp;restricting trucks entering the city. In Lahore, officials declared pollution a ‘calamity’.&nbsp; In India over 40,000 people were treated for respiratory ailments. UNICEF in Pakistan attributed 12% of deaths in children under-5 in Pakistan to air pollution.&nbsp; A July 2024 study in the journal Lancet revealed that 11.5% of deaths in Delhi are linked to air pollution. A study by the Indian Council for Medical Research said there were 1.7 million deaths in India in 2019 due to dirty air.&nbsp; Pakistanis are on average living 3.9 years less because of poor air quality. In Lahore, they lose seven years of life.&nbsp; Smog is now called the ‘fifth season,’ but the air is bad all year round. In 2023, Delhi recorded only one day in which air was healthy enough to breathe. In 2024, the AQI never fell below 50 on any day, so air pollution is not a seasonal problem. Come winter, India and Pakistan blame each other for the toxic air they share, but there is also growing awareness that the solution has to be collective.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250101060128_9ebf4319e67bea9ece43735860bddd977ae7181ae83d4f8a7de0dc93ac87ba44.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20250101060128_9ebf4319e67bea9ece43735860bddd977ae7181ae83d4f8a7de0dc93ac87ba44" data-rendition-name="original" width="1260" height="741" loading="lazy" alt="Dirty air kills both Indians and Pakistanis NT"> <figcaption>Fog mixed with thick pollution haze envelopes Pakistan and northern India in this NASA satellite image on new year's day 1 January.</figcaption> </figure>  Maryam Nawaz, Chief Minister of Punjab in Pakistan made a case for “climate diplomacy” in November. “This is not a political issue, it is a humanitarian one,” she said. India’s Joint Secretary of the Ministry of Environment, Forest, and Climate Change Naresh Pal Gangwar at COP29 drew attention to the transboundary nature of air pollution. He noted that most countries in the region share the ‘Indo-Gangetic Airshed’, and <a href="https://yawmle.clicks.mlsend.com/tl/cl/eyJ2Ijoie1wiYVwiOjU4NTIxOCxcImxcIjoxNDIxNTE2OTk5MTY2NTQxNzAsXCJyXCI6MTQyMTUxNzEwODk0MTk1NzI5fSIsInMiOiJlZDIyMWNjMDJhYTQwZmI1In0" target="_blank">stressed the need</a> for collective action to tackle air pollution. But little has changed on the ground. The relationship between India and Pakistan has remained strained, neither side has had a high commissioner in each other’s capitals since 2019.&nbsp; Indian external affairs minister S Jaishankar's visit to Islamabad for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation meeting in October was a symbolic move forward, but there was no substantial conversation for further engagement. As a health crisis gets worse, conversations on air pollution and for possible solutions <a href="https://yawmle.clicks.mlsend.com/tl/cl/eyJ2Ijoie1wiYVwiOjU4NTIxOCxcImxcIjoxNDIxNTE2OTk5MjA4NDg0NzgsXCJyXCI6MTQyMTUxNzEwODk0MTk1NzI5fSIsInMiOiI1MzcyZTM2NWFjNGI3ODNiIn0" target="_blank">may not be avoidable</a> for too long. “The wind knows no boundary,’’ says researcher Devindra Sharma in Punjab. “We can’t find solutions without talking across the border, especially for Punjab.” Cities across South Asia compete for the most polluted air in the world. The hot-spot for the worst air in the world, 37 out of the 40 most polluted cities, are located in the region. From Kathmandu to Lahore, Delhi to Dhaka residents live under a perpetual smog. This brown cloud across northern India and Pakistan during winter is visible from space. “A unified, science driven approach by the Punjabs can be the answer to the region’s air quality crisis,’’ Jolly Masih, an agribusiness scientist at BML Munjal University in Gurgaon. Track 2 dialogues between India and Pakistan space have tried to begin conversations around nuclear weapons, military and trade. But air pollution and climate change is still not included.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250101060128_cfca4db7aa34215d56125fff22dc185ad666b3ad8f7162955fe6f5bc7ab8f26a.jpg" data-media-id="editor_3" data-image-id="20250101060128_cfca4db7aa34215d56125fff22dc185ad666b3ad8f7162955fe6f5bc7ab8f26a" data-rendition-name="original" width="3941" height="4927" loading="lazy" alt="Dirty air kills both Indians and Pakistanis NT"> <figcaption>Smog in India</figcaption> </figure>  In November, the UK-based nonprofit Conciliation Resources brought experts from India and Pakistan to Nairobi to focus on climate breakdown. Diplomats, experts and journalists recommended knowledge-sharing of best practices.&nbsp; Air quality and climate change is a possible area that can be ‘ring fenced’ from politics, says TCA Raghavan, India’s former high commissioner to Pakistan. Unlike trade and water that can be political, air pollution does not have the baggage of earlier confidence-building measures for possible ‘ice breaking’. It also has the advantage of being for greater common good and has not been discussed politically before, unlike water. “Air pollution is a subject with positive appeal with youth and the new generation and could be a win-win for both sides,” says Rakesh Sood, former Indian ambassador to Nepal. India and Pakistan have banded together for a greater cause before. In 2020, they cooperated to fight a locust invasion that was destroying their crops on both sides. The mechanism requires monitoring in both countries and has survived bilateral tension.&nbsp; There is also a mechanism for sharing information about shared rivers, through the Indus Water Treaty which has functioned even during periods of strife. But there is no shared data on air pollution. “The similarities in source profiles, geography and policy responses mean that there are clear opportunities for both countries to learn from each other,’’ says Bhargav Krishna of the Sustainable Futures Collaborative based in India. In areas like transportation or crop burning, Pakistan can learn what has and hasn't worked in India to tailor a modified approach. For example, Indian farmers currently do not burn Basmati crop residue, unlike their counterparts in Pakistan. Other possible areas of cooperation include early warning systems especially with the dust storms, suggested Bharati Chaturvedi of Chintan Environmental Research and Action Group.&nbsp; A study by Chintan titled ‘Saaf Saans — Breathing Clean: A Citizen Survey on Air Pollution’, <a href="https://yawmle.clicks.mlsend.com/tl/cl/eyJ2Ijoie1wiYVwiOjU4NTIxOCxcImxcIjoxNDIxNTE2OTk5MjUwNDI3ODgsXCJyXCI6MTQyMTUxNzEwODk0MTk1NzI5fSIsInMiOiJmM2JhZjkxZDk5OWQ0MTAwIn0" target="_blank">surveyed 500 respondents</a> in Delhi to find that 33 percent of residents claimed that they spent extra on doctor fees and medicine. Ninety percent of respondents said they were impacted by air pollution. For India and Pakistan, where the bulk of those exposed to the fine particulate matter live on the margins, <a href="https://yawmle.clicks.mlsend.com/tl/cl/eyJ2Ijoie1wiYVwiOjU4NTIxOCxcImxcIjoxNDIxNTE2OTk5MzAyODU2NzMsXCJyXCI6MTQyMTUxNzEwODk0MTk1NzI5fSIsInMiOiJmYmRiYzJlYjcyMWNlYTVhIn0" target="_blank">cooperation is especially critical</a>. It can help save Indian lives and Pakistani lives. © Sapan News &nbsp;Mandira Nayar was until recently Deputy Chief of Bureau at The Week in Delhi.

Dirty air kills both Indians and Pakistanis

Thirty years after it abruptly pulled out of the Arun III project, the World Bank appears to have developed cold feet about an even larger project on the river in eastern Nepal. After opposition by civil society in Nepal, Japan and Europe, the Bank’s new president James Wolfensohn <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/20-years-ago-this-week/arun-iii">exited from Arun III</a>. The project’s generation capacity has been doubled to 900MW and it is being development by India’s state-owned SJVN Limited.&nbsp; Whereas in 1995, the opposition to Arun III was mainly from activists, this time it is said to be India’s displeasure with the Bank’s involvement in the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/world-bank-flip-flop-on-upper-arun">1,061MW Upper Arun</a>. Delhi is so sensitive to the issue that sources said it even leaned on Indian-born American President of the World Bank, Ajaya Banga to cancel his trip to Kathmandu for the IDA21 Replenishment Meeting in June. When it gets the green light, Upper Arun will be the most expensive hydroelectric project in Nepal so far with a price tag of $1.6 billion. The semi-storage scheme is located on the transboundary Arun River 15km from the Chinese border after it cuts through the Himalaya between Mt Everest and Kangchenjunga. Beijing is said to have no objections to the project, but India’s silence is said to stem <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/geopolitics-of-nepal-s-rivers">from its strategic interest</a> in not allowing anyone else to build large storage projects on the tributaries of the Ganga in Nepal. India’s SJVN is also currently constructing three large projects downstream, including Arun III and Lower Arun with a total generation capacity of nearly 2,000MW.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20241220111240_f6e0fda98407360d7a4456e861481ad811f7a75ce5ab7605158e980615f3fb16.jpg" data-media-id="editor_3" data-image-id="20241220111240_f6e0fda98407360d7a4456e861481ad811f7a75ce5ab7605158e980615f3fb16" data-rendition-name="original" width="850" height="771" loading="lazy" alt="Upper Arun Map NT"> </figure>  Nepal Electricity Authority (NEA) set up Upper Arun Hydro-electric Limited (UAHEL) as a subsidiary and in May signed up the French firm Tractebel for detailed design of the scheme. Experts say the design will have to take into account future climate-induced glacial lake outbursts like the one that swept away the 1,600MW <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/sikkim-flood-is-warning-to-nepal">Chungthang Teesta</a> III in Sikkim last year built at a cost of $1.7 billion.&nbsp; Upper Arun’s financing will be 70% loans and 30% equity. The World Bank had already earmarked $750 million with the Asian Development Bank (ADB) with Japan’s JICA also joining. But UAHEL Managing Director Fanendra Raj Joshi said there was no word either way from the World Bank, which meant there was no financial closure yet. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/right-climate-for-nepal-s-energy-transition">Right climate for Nepal’s energy transition</a>, Ramesh Kumar All this is in stark contrast to the optimism last year after Finance Minister Prakash Mahat returned from an IMF meeting in Morrocco and announced that the World Bank would be the main lender in Upper Arun.&nbsp; In November 2024, Mahat even took a helicopter with World Bank Managing Director Anna Bjerde and ADB Director Ramesh Subramaniam to the Upper Arun site and it looked like the loans were in the bag. It would also be the first large project in Nepal in which both big multilateral lenders would be involved.&nbsp; In April this year, an ‘agreement in principle’ was even reached between Mahat’s successor Barsaman Pun and World Bank Vice President for South Asia Martin Raiser to develop Upper Arun. But the loan meeting planned for June was cancelled. &nbsp; A Finance Ministry official told Nepali Times: “The World Bank told us categorically in November in Washington DC that India was opposed to its involvement in Upper Arun.” &nbsp; When Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal visited Delhi in June, Indian officials reportedly said they were interested in developing Upper Arun and evacuate its power through an extension of the 400kV transmission line it is building. Although Beijing had given the go ahead to the World Bank and ADB involvement in Upper Arun, it may not be as happy about an Indian company so close to its border. As a semi-reservoir project, Upper Arun can generate electricity at full capacity for up to six hours a day even in winter, unlike the schemes downstream which are run-of-the river in which generation depends on water flow.&nbsp; Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/multimedia/rivers-be-dammed">Rivers be dammed</a>, Pinki Siris Rana&nbsp; India is involved in projects in Nepal’s rivers that will generate a total of 8,000MW when complete. SJVN Limited is also taking over from the Chinese the 769MW Tamor project in the Arun Basin. &nbsp; Says Fanendra Raj Joshi of Upper Arun Hydro-electric Limited: “Nepal can find alternative sources of funding and we will go ahead with this project even if the World Bank decides not to provide the loan.”&nbsp; Joshi and the NEA’s Kulman Ghising (pictured, below) attended a hearing with indigenous communities at the project site in Sankhuwasabha this week. Ghising told the gathering that if the World Bank pulled out Nepal would carry on with Upper Arun through “domestic and diaspora investment with the same financial package as Upper Tama Kosi”. The 546MW <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/when-it-rains-it-pours-ksqprbu3">Upper Tama Kosi was knocked</a> by a massive landslide in September and will not be fully operation at least for a year. &nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20241218091240_bfaaadc83881c7551d1dd501447b7a22c10b89104aeea3cab58a100444b016d5.jpg" data-media-id="editor_8" data-image-id="20241218091240_bfaaadc83881c7551d1dd501447b7a22c10b89104aeea3cab58a100444b016d5" data-rendition-name="original" width="800" height="600" loading="lazy" alt="Kulman Ghising"> </figure>  “This is a project that can transform the local economy and Nepal’s economy as well,” Ghising added. “We will go ahead with blended financing from all levels of government.” Despite the lack of financial closure, construction of the project is expected to get underway in 2026 for completion in six years. Construction of a 21km access road from the power house to the dam site along the Kosi Corridor highway is in full swing through difficult terrain.

Upper Arun question mark

The shock wave of the return of Donald Trump to the White House, as well as the Republican control of the Senate and possibly the House, will impact not just America but people across the world.
In South Asia, it will mainly change the way Washington views and deals with China and India, and in more unpredictable ways. The impact on Nepal will be governed by how US relations with the country’s two giant neighbours develop in the next five years.
“Compared to Harris who has been focused more on multilateralism and maintaining allies, Trump is more confrontational and unilateral,” says National Assembly member and former Foreign Minister Bimala Rai Paudyel. “There is fear that Trump’s policies will push the world to become even more polarised than it is now.”
India and China will both be able to fill the gap left by Trump America’s retreat from global and regional leadership. They will be able to take advantage of Trump diluting relations with or abandoning traditional allies in Europe and Asia.
Although India is in the western camp, New Delhi has wanted to call its own shots. It is using its growing economic clout to thumb its nose at the EU and the US. For example, India has got away with importing oil from Russia despite western sanctions.
Says Akhilesh Upadhyay, Senior Fellow at the Strategic Affairs Center, IIDS: “From a traditional security perspective, Nepal is bang in the middle of China and India. China and America have a great power rivalry, and it is unclear which way Indian axis will go.”
India can also benefit if Trump follows through on threats on more tariffs on Chinese imports. Even though the Biden-Harris administration has been punishing China with tariffs and other barriers, Trump has in the past been more belligerent on Beijing.
“On the one hand, India is close to US in Quad, on the other hand, it takes part in BRICS where it works with Russia and China, and the Shanghai Cooperation. It remains to be seen how the US relationship plays out with our two big neighbours,” adds Upadhyay.
Since the enemy of an enemy is a friend, Washington has regarded India as its bulwark against increased Chinese economic and military clout. But New Delhi has not always gone along with US strategic interests, and does not really like the Americans being too involved with India’s smaller neighbours.
On the downside, A Trump administration could curb the influx of Indian IT workers in US, and the easy access Nepali students have to those jobs in the US could also be scaled back.
Some experts say which party is in the White House will not affect policy South Asia, and Nepal even less. But a Trump win could mean less development assistance to Nepal, particularly in reproductive health, human rights, and social safety.
Nischal Pandey at the Centre for South Asian Studies in Kathmandu says that the few state-level visits between the US and Nepal — from King Mahendra’s address to the joint session of US Congress during President Eisenhower tenure in 1960 to Ganesh Man Singh being received at the White House by President Bush Sr after 1990, to US Secretary of State Colin Powell’s visit in 2002 during George HW Bush’s term — have all been during Republican administrations.
He adds, “Historically, Republican presidents and administrations have been &nbsp;interested in Nepal than Democratic ones.”
More directly, Nepalis aspiring to migrate to the United States could find it more difficult. There are currently about 300 Nepalis waiting in Mexico for human traffickers to smuggle them into the United States, and that border is going to be tightened even more.
Earlier this year, Sao Paolo airport in Brazil had 150 Nepalis stranded after arriving to take the Darien Gap backdoor to the US. Another 200 headed out to Brazil were stuck at Addis Ababa airport, forcing Ethiopia to ban visas to Nepalis.&nbsp;
Trump has threatened a 20% tariff on Mexican imports if it does not stop migrants. He plans to deport 11 million undocumented people, he may not be able to carry it through but the threat is there for Nepalis in the US without papers.
Trump’s strong rhetoric on China could be bargaining brinkmanship, and it will be interesting to see how he balances this with Sino-Russian alignment. Biden did not roll back bans on Huawei and restrictions on TikTok, and US security concerns about China’s rise is a bipartisan issue, just as Gaza is. Harris would not have done things differently in those sectors.&nbsp;
Says MP Bimala Rai Paudyal: “Trump’s win could cause economic tensions with China, which will affect trade here as well, this is something we will need to prepare for.”
America’s moral authority to lecture countires like Nepal on transitional justice, human rights, democracy, and press freedom will be diminished during the second Trump term.&nbsp;
Reproductive rights, support for family planning projects in Nepal through the UN system may also fall like it did during his earlier presidency. Foreign aid through USAID could also be cut.
But perhaps the more indirect impact on Nepal of the Trump presidency will be his rollback on America’s commitment to curb climate change which will accelerate melting of the Himalayan icecap with major impact on water supply downstream in Asia.&nbsp;
“America’s climate commitments and goals will be impacted by Trump who doesn’t believe in climate change,” says Paudyal. “The current work on loss and damage, and carbon trading depends significantly on US funding, and the world looks to the US to be proactive.”
If Trump can bring the Ukraine war to a close by cosying up to Putin, a peace deal may improve fuel and food situation globally. There are thousands of Nepalis in the Russian Army, at least 50 have died, and they could finally come home.&nbsp;
Concludes Upadhyay: “As for Nepal, the Trump administration should see Nepal as a soverign nation on its own right rather than through the prism of great power rivalry either between US and China.”

Trumpet Call

Nepal and India are both Hindu-majority countries, but there is a difference between the Hindutva nationalism playing out in India’s ongoing elections and the Hindu faith as practiced in Nepal.
Most Nepalis are too busy trying to get by in hard economic times to be too engrossed with elections across the border. Some do harbour strong views about Narendra Modi’s brand of Hindu revivalism, and the RPP in particular seems to want to imitate the BJP’s ability to set a national Hindutva narrative.
Still, a majority of Nepalis look at Narendra Modi with something between indifference and fondness. The Indian Prime Minister has visited Nepal five times since he was first elected in 2014, and many here still remember his address to Parliament which he began in Nepali during his first state visit to Kathmandu.
There is a section in Nepal that supports a non-secular Hindu state, and Nepalis have noticed that every time Modi comes to Nepal he makes it a point to visit Hindu and Buddhist sacred sites. But in contrast to his BJP’s Hindu exclusionist policies in India, Nepal has traditionally enjoyed a syncretic blend of Hindu and Buddhist traditions.
Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/borderlines/the-south-wind-blows">The south wind blows</a>, Chandra Kishore
For most Nepalis, therefore, the affinity for BJP and Modi could be characterised as cultural rather than political. Most Nepalis still have memories of the hardships they suffered during the 6-month blockade that New Delhi imposed just after the 2015 earthquake because it did not like the contours of Nepal’s new draft Constitution.
The poor showing of the Hindu-monarchist Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP) in last month’s by-elections in Ilam and Bajhang shows that at least in the mountains, Nepalis are not so impressed with the polarised electoral politics on display in India. Interestingly, Bajhang is close to the Indian state of Uttarakhand which has declared itself to be a Hindu-only ‘Devbhumi’ and with which it has close cross-border cultural ties.
Although factions of the other four main parties in Parliament, the NC, UML, Maoist-Centre and the RSP, do flirt with the Hindu-monarchy line from time to time, there is not much public support for it yet and none of the four largest parties in Parliament has officially voiced its support for such an agenda.
When (and if) Modi does win a third term in India’s elections there could inevitably be ripple effects in Nepal — especially if the BJP’s mentors in the Rastriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) adopt an even more radical agenda, abolish secularism from the Indian Constitution, or push the Greater India idea of ‘Akhanda Bharat’.
Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/india-s-faith-in-politics">India’s faith in politics</a>, Shrijan Pandey
Even so, rousing radical religious passions will not be as easy in Nepal, which is South Asia’s oldest nation-state and does not carry with it the historical baggage of Partition. Nepal’s Muslim minority which forms 5% of the population has for the most part lived in harmony with Hindus and Buddhists, although there are politically-instigated local flare-ups from time to time mainly along the southern border.&nbsp;
Though Nepal’s Hindu population is more than 80% (2021 census), Nepal as a whole is a country of minorities. The Hill-Brahmin and Chhetri may dominate the political and economic spheres, but they form less than 30% of the population. Nepal’s ethnic and indigenous groups have been asserting themselves, as seen in the recent Ilam by-election, where the UML’s Suhang Nembang comfortably beat the NC’s Dambar Bahadur Khadka by close to 6,000 votes. However, an independent candidate, Dakendra Singh Limbu, with no political affiliation, but who campaigned on a platform of assertive Limbu identity, made a strong showing, finishing third with 11,457 votes.
Such identity politics is more a response to ethnic exclusion and a demand for regional autonomy than pushing a religious agenda. Indeed, Nepal’s political parties have so far desisted from mixing religion with politics, even though some individual leaders in the parties sometimes seem to appear to be sorely tempted.
Nepal’s next general election is more than three years away, and India-style Hindutva politics could still be whipped up. For now, it seems more likely that it will be Nepali nationalism that will be a more potent vote-mobiliser.
This already seems to be happening, with the government minting Nepal’s new 100-rupee note that depicts the country’s ‘pointy map’ (‘chuchhe naxa’) showing a 350-sq km strip of territory in its northwestern tip which is also claimed by India.
Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/borderlines/crimson-saffron-and-green">Crimson, saffron and green</a>, Chandra Kishore
Akhilesh Upadhyay is former Editor-in-Chief of The Kathmandu Post and a Senior Fellow at the think tank, IIDS.

Southerly winds

Nowhere is Nepal’s delicate balancing act between its giant neighbours India and China as evident as it is in this tourism capital.&nbsp; The <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/pokhara-s-china-connection">Chinese have cultivated a special relationship with Pokhara</a> ever since they built the 200km Prithvi Highway connecting it to Kathmandu in 1974, right up to the inauguration of Pokhara International Airport last year. India has not been far behind: it financed the 181km Siddhartha Highway connecting Pokhara to Bhairawa in 1971, and a dam that raised the level of Phewa Lake. There are strategic reasons for India and China to eye Pokhara. Most <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/recruitment-of-nepalis-into-indian-army-paused">Gorkha soldiers in the Indian Army are sourced from these mountains</a>, and there is an Indian military pension centre here.&nbsp; For China, it is important to keep an eye on refugee centres here with thousands who fled Tibet after the Chinese annexation. Both India and China have an interest in who governs Nepal, and have followed (often meddled) with political developments in Kathmandu. A Nepali Congress-Maoist coalition that was seen by many to be India-leaning was <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/catapulting-to-singha-darbar">suddenly replaced on Monday with a Communist-led coalition</a> more amicable to China.&nbsp; However, it is Pokhara that is on the main geostrategic fault line between India and China, where the rivalry is openly played out. Pokhara’s mayor Dhana Raj Acharya is from the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Socialist and has earned the moniker ‘Chinese mayor’ for pushing direct flights to Pokhara from Chinese cities, and activities like the Dragon Boat Festival on Phewa Lake, the China International Crosscountry Championship, and a full-scale celebration of Chinese New Year last month.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240309010324_1a033dbd507869e172cfe184d622391defeaf39a1af0a4a4e1c6b60bd5d1a675.jpg" data-media-id="editor_3" data-image-id="20240309010324_1a033dbd507869e172cfe184d622391defeaf39a1af0a4a4e1c6b60bd5d1a675" data-rendition-name="original" width="3500" height="2333" loading="lazy" alt="Pokhara epicentre of Sino-Indian rivalry in Nepal"> <figcaption>Pokhara Mayor Dhana Raj Acharya with Chinese Ambassador Chen Song. Photo: DHANA RAJ ACHARYA/FACEBOOK</figcaption> </figure>  The Indians have been looking at this flurry of Chinese activity with some concern, and have organised their own events.&nbsp; The first international flight at Pokhara's new airport was a Sichuan Airlines jet from Chengdu in June flying in the Dragon Boat Festival crew. India has been dragging its feet on allowing direct flights between Pokhara and Indian cities because the airport was built by the Chinese. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/pokhara-s-desperation-and-hope">Pokhara's desperation and hope</a>, Kanak Mani Dixit To make its point, the Indian Embassy organised a Yoga Day function on the same day as the inaugural Chinese flight. It was not a coincidence that both the Chinese and Indian ambassadors to Nepal were in Pokhara on the same day.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240309010324_d07a2bdaa9fdff8dd3d9e585673b83f642e3bbf03dfc45d5b7bbec0d6cfbd55d.jpg" data-media-id="editor_5" data-image-id="20240309010324_d07a2bdaa9fdff8dd3d9e585673b83f642e3bbf03dfc45d5b7bbec0d6cfbd55d" data-rendition-name="original" width="1840" height="1292" loading="lazy" alt="Pokhara epicentre of Sino-Indian rivalry in Nepal"> <figcaption>A Sichuan Airlines Airbus 319 was the first international flight to the new Chinese-built Pokhara airport in June last year. Photo: XINHUA. It landed on the same day that the Indian Embassy organised Yoga Day at the nearby Pokhara Stadium (below).</figcaption> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240309010328_ac491e7363d9a7ee6ff46ff926bcb29b0cc08aba0687d9c6d3d4bb5afa09318e.jpg" data-media-id="editor_6" data-image-id="20240309010328_ac491e7363d9a7ee6ff46ff926bcb29b0cc08aba0687d9c6d3d4bb5afa09318e" data-rendition-name="original" width="2250" height="1501" loading="lazy" alt="Pokhara epicentre of Sino-Indian rivalry in Nepal"> <figcaption>Photo: DHANA RAJ ACHARYA/FACEBOOK</figcaption> </figure>  &nbsp;On another recent visit to Pokhara, Indian Ambassador Naveen Srivastava made a pointed reference to the fact that Pokhara was connected to the Indian border (by the Indian built road in 1971) before it was linked to Kathmandu (by the Chinese-built road in 1974). He added that although Indian visitors liked to drive to Pokhara, they were facing difficulties because of the poor state of the Prithvi Highway.&nbsp; “I don’t know who is repairing that highway,” Ambassador Srivastava continued, referring obliquely to Chinese contractors, “but India has set a record in highway construction. Next time, also remember Indian companies.” Srivastava made no mention of India’s reluctance to allow flights to Pokhara, adding that most Indian visitors came by road anyway. Chinese Ambassador Chen Song also appeared concerned about the slow progress on the expansion of the Prithvi Highway, and drove along a part of it during a recent visit, posting drone footage of the upgrading work on social media. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/begnas-going-the-way-of-phewa">Begnas going the way of Phewa</a>, Durga Rana Magar While in Pokhara, Ambassador Song also publicly criticised the Indian policy of not importing electricity from Nepali hydropower plants built by the Chinese. And to drive that point home, two Chinese Air Force Y-20 transport aircraft landed at Pokhara airport in November with 50 tonnes of relief for Jajarkot earthquake survivors.&nbsp; New Delhi insisted that the India-Nepal Bilateral Consultative Group on Security Issues be held in Pokhara in October.&nbsp; “The great game between India and China is being played out in Nepal, and Pokhara is where it is most visible,” explains geopolitics expert Indra Adhikari.&nbsp; She adds, “India is concerned about an increase in Chinese activity around Pokhara, and competition between Nepal’s neighbours is heating up.”&nbsp; India’s main sensitivity appears to be over the fact that Kaski and neighbouring districts of central Nepal are major recruitment centres for the Gorkha regiments of the Indian Army. The Gorkha Pension Camp was opened as far back as 1955 in Pokhara, and in 1987 it established a school for the children of Gorkha soldiers in its military.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2024031106034_a5c5037ae3a76c0443eca037a02d822494de1f60649e6f42466936fb3e632ddd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_8" data-image-id="2024031106034_a5c5037ae3a76c0443eca037a02d822494de1f60649e6f42466936fb3e632ddd" data-rendition-name="original" width="900" height="551" loading="lazy" alt="Pokhara geopolitics"> <figcaption>Indian Ambassador Navin Srivastav with mayor Acharya.</figcaption> </figure>  Similarly, China’s touchiness concerns the presence of British Gurkha veterans and their families living in Hong Kong, and Tibetans in four refugee camps in and around Pokhara.&nbsp; Pokhara was also the staging post for American and Indian military support for Khampa guerrillas who were fighting the Chinese Army in Tibet till they were disarmed or driven out in 1976. Explains analyst Ananda Raj Mulmi: “Beijing does not want Pokhara to once more become a base for anti-Chinese activities.” After opening the China-Nepal border at Korala in Mustang, the Chinese are keen to make Pokhara a trading hub in central Nepal.&nbsp; “The Chinese had a long term time horizon to link the Prithvi Highway to Korala, and wanted to extend the road from Pokhara to Jomsom but King Mahendra did not approve, so they just built it up to Baglung,” adds Mulmi.&nbsp; Pokhara’s sister city relations with eight Chinese cities is a source of soft power, and means there are frequent cultural exchanges. Pokhara is a household word in China because of the popular television serial Deng Feng Lai which was filmed on location here, and the main characters took a paragliding flight. <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/chinese-tourist-influx-to-nepal-in-2020-nqr538k3">Chinese visitors used to be the mainstay of Pokhara’s tourism till Covid</a>.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2024031106034_ff7c3ce0f0e3b2e83849bcdf35942892b9fb7e4f110ce6032920fd3e4ccd8094.jpg" data-media-id="editor_10" data-image-id="2024031106034_ff7c3ce0f0e3b2e83849bcdf35942892b9fb7e4f110ce6032920fd3e4ccd8094" data-rendition-name="original" width="976" height="665" loading="lazy" alt="Pokhara geopolitics"> </figure>  More than a year after the inauguration of Pokhara Airport, there are no regular international flights. India may be preventing flights to its cities, but it is Nepal’s failure that it has not been able to attract airlines to connect Pokhara to Chinese destinations.&nbsp; “This is because we went ahead and built an expensive airport without factoring in geopolitical sensitivities,” says foreign policy expert Krishna KC. “We have to convince the Indians that it is also in their interest to allow flights.”&nbsp; Chinese Ambassador Song announced at Pokhara Airport’s inauguration that it was a BRI project even though it predated the concept, and this ticked India off even more. Nepal’s unclear flip-flopping over the issue aggravated both sides, diplomatic sources say.&nbsp; Even so, most people here blame India for being petty-minded about not allowing new air routes making Pokhara operations feasible, as well as permitting connections to Indian cities.&nbsp; Professor of geostrategic studies Bhim Nath Baral says it is natural for both powerful countries to be concerned that Pokhara will be used against its national interest.&nbsp; “But it is up to Nepal to deploy diplomatic skills to understand and reassure both sides,” he adds. “That can only come with a mature and self-confident foreign policy.”

Pokhara epicentre of Sino-Indian rivalry

China’s sharp economic slowdown has raised alarm bells around the world. But it has also thrown into relief the rise of another demographic powerhouse next door.&nbsp; The Indian economy grew at an impressive <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/india/indias-economic-growth-set-accelerate-its-fastest-year-2023-08-31/">7.8% annual rate</a> in the second quarter of 2023, and the country recently reached an important milestone by becoming the first to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/23/science/chandrayaan-3-india-moon-landing.html">land a spacecraft</a> on the Moon’s potentially water-rich south pole. India’s ascent, unlike China’s, has not been accompanied by an increasingly assertive foreign policy. As India’s geopolitical, economic, and cultural clout grows, so does its global footprint. China’s ‘<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/29/opinion/china-economy-decline.html">decline</a>’, as some have begun to call the conclusion of the country’s four-decade-long economic boom, opens new opportunities for the Indian economy and other developing and emerging countries. Earlier this year, India reached another milestone when its population officially <a href="https://www.un.org/development/desa/dpad/publication/un-desa-policy-brief-no-153-india-overtakes-china-as-the-worlds-most-populous-country/">surpassed that of China</a>, which had been the world’s most populous country for <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/19/world/asia/india-china-population.html">more than 300 years</a>. While China’s shrinking, <a href="https://www.scmp.com/economy/economic-indicators/article/3207047/china-population-2022-marks-first-population-decline-60-years">rapidly aging</a> population is likely to impede economic growth and may curtail its geopolitical ambitions, India – one of the world’s <a href="https://indbiz.gov.in/one-of-the-youngest-populations-in-the-world-indias-most-valuable-asset/">youngest</a> countries, with a <a href="https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/india-population/#:~:text=The%20population%20density%20in%20India,1%2C202%20people%20per%20mi2).&amp;text=The%20median%20age%20in%20India%20is%2028.4%20years.">median age of 28.2</a> – is poised to reap a huge demographic dividend. But the driving force behind India’s emergence as a major global power is its rapid economic growth. While India’s GDP is still smaller than China’s, the country is currently the world’s <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2023/07/10/world-economic-outlook-update-july-2023">fastest-growing</a> major economy and is projected to account for <a href="https://t.co/SMFH21oTa0">12.9% of global growth</a> over the next five years, surpassing the United States’ 11.3% share.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20231029081036_781e265ec0c9f72b3c2596697419554293b721f2c4e8c93b963d66e35f4aa3c1.jpg" data-media-id="editor_10" data-image-id="20231029081036_781e265ec0c9f72b3c2596697419554293b721f2c4e8c93b963d66e35f4aa3c1" data-rendition-name="original" width="696" height="477" loading="lazy" alt="India China graph NT"> </figure>  In addition to fueling a consumption boom, India’s youthful population is also driving innovation, as evidenced by the country’s world-class information economy and its recent moon landing, which the country managed to achieve despite a national space budget equivalent to <a href="https://www.wsj.com/world/asia/india-races-russia-to-be-first-to-land-on-moons-south-pole-ad5d9d05">roughly 6%</a> of what the US spends on space missions. Having already surpassed the United Kingdom, its former colonial ruler, India’s GDP is poised to <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/01/india-to-leapfrog-to-third-largest-economy-by-2030.html">overtake</a> that of Japan and Germany to become the world’s third-largest economy by 2030, behind the US and China. Given its increasingly unstable neighborhood, it should come as no surprise that India has the world’s <a href="https://www.sipri.org/media/press-release/2022/world-military-expenditure-passes-2-trillion-first-time">third-largest</a> defense budget. The deepening <a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/Pakistan-China-and-terrorism">strategic alliance</a> between China and Pakistan underscores India’s precarious position as the only country bordering two nuclear-armed <a href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/pakistan-becoming-chinese-client-state-by-brahma-chellaney-2016-05?">revisionist states</a> with expansionist ambitions. Moreover, for the past three years, India has been locked in a tense <a href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/china-cannot-win-india-himalayan-border-dispute-by-brahma-chellaney-2023-04">military standoff</a> with China along its Himalayan border. Bilateral relations, marked by <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/12/12/india-china-arunachal-border/">intermittent clashes</a> in the disputed Tibet-Ladakh border region, are at their lowest point in decades. By confronting China despite the risk of a full-scale war, India has challenged Chinese power in a way no other country has done in this century. But despite leaning toward forging closer ties with the West, India remains hesitant to enter into formal military alliances with Western countries. Western powers are partly to blame. US President <a href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/columnist/joseph-biden-jr">Joe Biden</a>’s reluctance to comment on the Sino-Indian military standoff, let alone openly support India, has sent a clear signal that India is responsible for its own defense. Given that the country’s future growth hinges on its ability to defend itself against external threats, India will likely step up its efforts to modernize its conventional armed forces and enhance its nuclear deterrence. The escalating geopolitical rivalry between China and India could also impede efforts to unite the Global South and transform the BRICS group into a credible alternative to the G20 and G7. The BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) recently agreed to expand the group by adding <a href="https://www.thepresidency.gov.za/content/xv-brics-summit-johannesburg-ii-declaration-24-august-2023">six new members</a>: Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Ethiopia, Argentina, and Iran. Given the 11 members’ divergent interests, BRICS+ will likely find it even harder to reach consensus on any major issue.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20231029081040_43ee34df0da045fc9466deb8642e67e778412c7494d5aa1275da28fc08e002e9.jpg" data-media-id="editor_20" data-image-id="20231029081040_43ee34df0da045fc9466deb8642e67e778412c7494d5aa1275da28fc08e002e9" data-rendition-name="original" width="599" height="402" loading="lazy" alt="India China NT 2"> </figure>  Meanwhile, China’s economic slump could prompt President Xi Jinping to double down on his expansionist agenda. Biden recently <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/11/us/politics/biden-china-criticism-economy.html">characterized</a> the stagnating Chinese economy as a “ticking time bomb,” warning that, “When bad folks have problems, they do bad things.” China’s controversial <a href="https://twitter.com/globaltimesnews/status/1696104724691570945">new national map</a>, which depicts vast areas of India, Malaysia, the Philippines, Vietnam, Taiwan, and Bhutan (and even a bit of Russia) as Chinese territory, underscores the threat posed by China’s increasingly aggressive behavior. In addition to these external threats, India’s future will be shaped by its response to domestic economic challenges. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has made <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/12/world/asia/in-india-government-tracks-its-own.html">great strides</a> in modernizing the notoriously outdated Indian bureaucracy and promoting e-government to reduce red tape and attract foreign direct investment. His government has invested heavily in upgrading and expanding the country’s infrastructure, implemented regulatory reforms, and sought to boost domestic manufacturing through Modi’s <a href="https://mea.gov.in/Images/attach/Make_in_India_Initiative.pdf">“Make in India” initiative</a>. But to transform itself into a global manufacturing hub, India must invest in human capital, particularly in <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2015/09/28/04/53/sp012202">education and training</a>. Moreover, India’s size and diversity also pose enormous challenges. India may be the first developing economy that, from the beginning, has pursued modernization and prosperity through a democratic system. But as one of the world’s most culturally diverse countries, its seemingly never-ending election cycle has often fueled division and polarization. But, despite its <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/divided-families-and-tense-silences-us-style-polarization-arrives-in-india/2019/05/18/734bfdc6-5bb3-11e9-98d4-844088d135f2_story.html">US-style polarized politics</a>, India’s democratic framework has served as a pillar of stability. By fostering open expression and dialogue, the Indian political system has empowered grassroots communities and individuals, enabling members of historically marginalized classes and castes to rise to the highest levels of policymaking. Whether India can maintain its current upward trajectory will depend on its ability to maintain political stability, rapid economic growth, domestic and external security, and a forward-looking foreign policy. Success would enhance India’s <a href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/india-us-china-balance-of-power-without-formal-alliance-by-joseph-s-nye-2023-06">global standing</a> and help advance <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/can-india-emerge-as-a-rival-to-china-manufacturing-population-it-investment-trade-youth-regulatory-reform-11673895652?mod=opinion_featst_pos2">US interests</a> in the Indo-Pacific, the world’s new geopolitical fulcrum and home to its fastest-growing economies.&nbsp; © Project Syndicate Brahma Chellaney is Professor of Strategic Studies at the Center for Policy Research, New Delhi and Fellow at the Robert Bosch Academy in Berlin. His book <a href="https://press.georgetown.edu/Book/Water">Water: Asia’s New Battleground</a> (Georgetown University Press, 2011) for which he won the 2012 <a href="https://asiasociety.org/media/press-releases/brahma-chellaney%E2%80%99s-water-asia%E2%80%99s-new-battleground-wins-2012-asia-society-bernard">Asia Society Bernard Schwartz Book Award</a>.

India’s quiet rise

In an English city, my aunt had learned to call home, it was the pursuit of familiarity that really gave her the purpose to stay. One weekend, she sat on the stairs, making frantic calls. My uncle punched numbers on his Nokia cell phone. Where? What time? Are tickets available? They echoed one another. Both were trying to book tickets for the only screening of Bollywood’s <a href="https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0420332/">Veer Zara</a>, in a city near us.
My cousins and me, we waited with bated breath. This would be an opportunity to watch a Bollywood film on the big screen. In the early-2000s, screening of Bollywood in the cinemas had not yet become a thing in England, so South Asians would organise their own screenings.
Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/suburban-tales/light-of-the-absurd">Light of the absurd</a>, Pratibha Tuladhar
Tickets were finally booked and we rushed out, thrusting our arms through our coats as we hastily locked the door behind us. “This is as far as Nagarkot is from Kathmandu,” my uncle said aloud, as he drove. Would we have covered the same distance to go watch a “Hindi” film in Kathmandu? Probably not. But in the UK, we did, racing towards a collective, South Asian sentiment.
When we arrived, the theatre premise was packed with Indians, Pakistanis, Bangladeshis and Nepalis. Immediately, there was the relaxing of the muscles you experience in the presence of the familiar.
Probably among the last people to buy the tickets, ours weren’t the best seats. We were on the very first row, and for the rest of the show, we would tilt our head up towards the screen, as though clamouring for some love, while the actors would virtually breathe down our necks.
Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/suburban-tales/memory-of-a-conversation">Memory of as conversation</a>, Pratibha Tuladhar
We weren’t the only ones with bad seats. Some in the audience had been accommodated on make-shift chairs. The auditorium was packed all the way to the exit.
As <a href="https://www.imdb.com/name/nm0451321/?ref_=tt_ov_st">Shah Rukh Khan</a> rescued <a href="https://www.imdb.com/name/nm0006689/?ref_=tt_ov_st">Priety Zinta</a> by slinging on a chopper, I remember flinching in my seat, as though they would fall on my face. A Nepali family friend, Mahesh Mahaseth, who happened to be sitting next to me, nudged and laughed at me when tears ran down my face as the India-Pakistan romance transpired. I remember thinking at that time how cruel-South-Asian-male that behaviour was-- teasing a girl in tears.
Even as my dislike for Shah Rukh Khan (SRK) continued to build-up, I joined other women and girls in the audience and cried during all the sad scenes. The men cleared their throat. And although it seemed like SRK was demonstrating that it is okay for men to weep, to be vulnerable and heartbroken, that precedent wasn’t quite set off screen.
Regardless, we all went home purged. Post-catharsis.
…
For many South Asian women, SRK is religion, said my friend Ayub, and sent me a snapshot of the book, <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Desperately-Seeking-Shah-Rukh-Independence/dp/9354891934">Desperately Seeking Shah Rukh by Shrayana Bhattacharya</a>. Ayub described SRK as “the resilient embodiment of liberalism.” I asked him to elaborate and we ended up hate-watching <a href="https://www.imdb.com/title/tt15354916/">Jawan</a>. (Was he a convert by the end of the film? He might answer that in a separate article.)
Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/suburban-tales/the-light-of-feet">The light of feet</a>, Pratibha Tuladhar
I cannot remember the last time I watched a Bollywood movie in the theatre. So, when the audience cheered and clapped every time SRK dismantled a bad guy, I was surprised. And while the audience responded in euphoria, I found that I was quickly disassociating: what was this film beyond a family drama steeped in violence, a revenge tragedy interlude, and family reunion with the Robin Hood of a son, all woven into the narrative of vindication of geopolitics? But the show was house-full and parents had their toddlers in tow.
There are no sanitised versions of the world here, for children.
“I was not expecting so much crowd for a Bollywood masala movie. I was surprised to be honest,” Hashim Ahmad Hakeem, video producer from India, who went to the film’s screening in Kathmandu with friends from South Asia, told me. “It was amazing bonding over the movie and realising most of us have grown up in the same Bollywood cinema.”
Hakeem was participating in the Adenauer Media Leaders Academy in Kathmandu. On the sidelines of the event, one of the things the fellows did together was watch Jawan.
Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/suburban-tales/of-anger-and-love">Of anger and love</a>, Pratibha Tuladhar
“I watched it because Bollywood movies are banned in Pakistani cinemas. Secondly, I wanted to watch with fellows from other countries, specifically India as they are very much enthusiastic about Shah Rukh Khan. So, I enjoyed their cheering more than the movie,” says Abbass Raza, an aspiring journalist from Pakistan.
For many South Asians, Bollywood movies are about coming home to culture and language they can relate to.
“Honestly, this will always be memorable,” says Navneeta Nandan, journalist with The Economic Times. “It signifies the strength of art. We can be geographically apart but this can always be something that will keep us connected- cinema, music from different countries.”
…
On a certain terrace restaurant in the heart of Kathmandu, a friend from Pakistan and I get talking about architecture and end up discussing Pakistani teleserials. In the 80s, Nepal Television used to broadcast Pakistani series as an endorsement of its friendly relations with Pakistan. Some viewers at the time, even named their children after their favourite characters.
My aunt who lives in an English city, which has become her home, still binges on Pakistani series and records Indian serials. In the solitude of a foreign land, content in languages she can speak have always been her friends.
Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/suburban-tales/a-letter-to-a-sister">A letter to a sister</a>, Pratibha Tuladhar
Soap operas were created for housewives, who would watch them after putting their day’s work to rest, as though visiting old friends in the emptiness of their days. While on weekends husband and children filled the hours, on weekdays, they would go back to conversing with their virtual friends: women who sometimes did not represent their reality, and sometimes, offered them the comfort of heroism.
At my request, my friend from Pakistan shared a very long list of recommended Pakistani dramas. I forwarded it to my aunt. And here’s what she wrote back: Thank you, chhori. I have watched ALL of them! :)

Pratibha Tuladhar

Navigating invisible borders

Libya, Greece, Spain, China — videos of catastrophic floods have flooded the international media.&nbsp; Floods swept away most of the Libyan city of Derna, killing more than 11,000 people. Climate change was blamed, but it was also caused by war and unheeded warnings about weak dams. The disasters are a warning to Nepal where a range of factors could worsen monsoon flooding in the coming years. The Melamchi flood in 2021 that nearly destroyed Nepal’s largest infrastructure project, and this monsoon’s destructive floods in eastern Nepal show that these disasters are already happening.&nbsp; But every monsoon there is also a flood of recrimination in India about Nepal releasing water on its rivers and unleashing floods — even though there are no reservoir projects and sluice gates on two border barrages on the Kosi and Gandaki, both controlled by India. &nbsp; Yet, every monsoon the media in the Indian states of Bihar and Uttar Pradesh are full of headlines blaming Nepal.&nbsp; Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/the-kosi-returns-to-its-old-ways">The Kosi returns to its old ways</a> The 2008 flood that affected 2.3 million people in Nepal and India was actually caused by a breach in the eastern embankment of the Kosi. The rain that year was not even heavy, so one wonders what would happen in a year when there is abnormal precipitation in the Kosi catchment.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2023092204098_d8c61f36859d2d0f2aef053ea1c5a15358d618a3d8b2e772dba7ba06e8d38e0b.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="2023092204098_d8c61f36859d2d0f2aef053ea1c5a15358d618a3d8b2e772dba7ba06e8d38e0b" data-rendition-name="original" width="2500" height="1667" loading="lazy" alt="Kosi NT"> <figcaption>Photo: GOPEN RAI</figcaption> </figure>  “After the completion of Kosi Barrage in the 1960s, the embankments have collapsed about eight times until now, but the major one was 2008,” says Ajaya Dixit, a water expert.&nbsp; In 2008, the Indian media had ill-informed headlines like ‘Nepal opened the Kosi Barrage’ which has affected public opinion. The real story is about faulty engineering of the barrage and its embankments on the Kosi, which is a river with one of the highest sediment loads in the world. Eklavya Prasad, water campaigner who is with Megh Pyne Abhiyan in Bihar, says it is unreasonable to blame Nepal for annual floods in India. He explains: “Geographically, a large number of Himalayan rivers flow down from Nepal and discharge the waters and sediment into the north Bihar region. It is a natural drainage path that flows across the international boundary and beyond human capabilities.” Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-kosi-s-sorrow-and-scope">The Kosi’s sorrow, and scope</a>, Kanak Mani Dixit Kosi, also known as Sorrow of Bihar, is notorious for frequently changing its course. In the last 200 years, the Kosi has gradually shifted 120km westwards. “River always chooses the path of least resistance. And when it doesn’t get to flow, it forces its way through,” says Dixit.&nbsp; Ignoring this nature of the river when infrastructure and new settlements are designed on old floodplains is what has increased the intensity and impact of floods. In many ways, it is the same reason Kathmandu gets flooded every monsoon. Infrastructure has been sited along floodplains constricting rivers such that even moderate rain becomes destructive. “All of the 56 floodgates of the Kosi Barrage are operated by the Bihar government, and if they fail to open the Nepal side is flooded. If they are opened, the flood goes downstream,” says Dwarika Nath Dhungel, former secretary of the Ministry of Energy, Water Resources and Irrigation. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-geopolitics-of-nepal-s-water-and-electricity">The geopolitics of Nepal’s water and electricity</a>, Ramesh Kumar Although there is no clear clause on the operational right of the barrage in the agreement between Nepal and India, on the Kosi Project, Dhungel surmises that a subclause is being used by India to manage the barrage. Says Dhungel: “The same clause also uses the word 'maintenance' of barrage here, but there has been no maintenance effort from the Indian side.” The barrage impounds water forcing the river to deposit its sediment behind it so that the river is now flowing a few metres above the surrounding land — increasing the dangers of floods.&nbsp; The solution to transboundary floods is to look at the river system in totality. If India and Nepal are to prepare for cataclysmic water disasters in the future, the two countries must work together. The ‘national interest’ in harnessing Nepal’s rivers must be based on bilateral benefit. Says Ajaya Dixit: “Studying the nature of the rivers, not just where it floods but also from where it originates, and incorporating these elements while building infrastructure can minimise the risk of river-related disasters.” Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/india-nepal-ignore-climate-crisis-in-river-talks">India, Nepal ignore climate crisis in river talks</a>, Ramesh Bhushal

Pinki Sris Rana

A flood of recrimination

After prolonged negotiations over the weekend, Nepal’s new <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/madam-prime-minister-of-nepal">Prime Minister Sushila Karki</a> on Monday appointed three members to her Council of Ministers, but the youth group that put her in power does not like her choice. The GenZ group that initiated the movement that toppled Nepal’s government accused Karki of not being consulted about the choice of Om Prakash Aryal, a lawyer who was helping with negotiating with the Army, as the Home and Law Minister.&nbsp; GenZ’s purported leader <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/who-or-what-is-hami-nepal">Sudan Gurung</a> led a group of his supporters and families of youth killed in <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/raising-nepal-from-the-ashes">last week’s demonstration</a> at a midnight protest outside the prime minister’s residence, demanding Karki’s resignation unless she listened to them. Aryal is also a legal adviser to Kathmandu Mayor Balen Shah, who has supported the GenZ movement but refused their offer to lead the interim government.&nbsp; The other two ministers include former Finance Secretary Rameshore Khanal as Finance Minister, and the popular former chief of the Nepal Electricity Authority (NEA) Kulman Ghising as the Energy Minister, Urban Development Minister, and Minister of Physical Infrastructure and Transport. They were sworn in on Monday. While Prime Minister Karki has said she wants competent and honest technocrats in the Council of Ministers, GenZ has been pushing for candidates that do not seem to meet her criteria — including a military officer and Mayor Balen Shah’s candidate.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025091511090_f7db633bbf56c5e2a43b6cd248e522365f56cd34578d65cdeca243c65d807f6d.jpg" data-media-id="editor_3" data-image-id="2025091511090_f7db633bbf56c5e2a43b6cd248e522365f56cd34578d65cdeca243c65d807f6d" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1365" loading="lazy" alt="new ministers being sworn in"> </figure>  Karki’s list is said to include retired Lt Gen Balananda Sharma, &nbsp;Magsaysay Award winner Mahabir Pun of the National Innovation Centre, former Education Minister Sumana Shrestha who quit RSP on Sunday and Dharan Mayor Harka Sampang. Karki met the government machinery on Sunday at her Singha Darbar office. Speaking without a prepared text, she admitted that there had been a “huge loss” not just to government buildings but also to official and court records during the 9 September arson attacks. “I am ashamed to say that there has been a systematic targeting of sensitive and essential government institutions, we will track down the perpetrators and investigate them,” she said. Karki also assured officials that she had no intention of staying on as prime minister beyond 5 March, the date she has set for early elections. She added: “The destruction by criminal elements has added to our challenges, but we have to choose but to unite and rebuild. This movement was about ending corruption, improving governance and equality. Help me achieve those goals.” <h2>KNOW YOUR MINISTERS</h2> Om Prakash Aryal Home Minister, Minister of Law  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250915110916_6bbaa39c523979ea1a3e85bd496232fa0dcb6152718ede106078bb5f3d069c3c.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20250915110916_6bbaa39c523979ea1a3e85bd496232fa0dcb6152718ede106078bb5f3d069c3c" data-rendition-name="original" width="960" height="955" loading="lazy" alt="Om Prakash Aryal"> <figcaption>Om Prakash Aryal</figcaption> </figure>  Back in 2016, <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/do-gooders-to-watch-out-for,3435">Om Prakash Aryal</a> filed a writ petition against the appointment of all powerful Lokman Singh Karki to the Commission for the Investigation of Abuse of Authority (CIAA), paving way for the impeachment of the head of the anti-graft body together with Prime Minister Sushila Karki, who was then Chief Justice. An advocate at the Supreme Court, Aryal gained widespread fame for his work in Public Interest Litigation. Most recently, earlier this year he filed a petition against then Prime Minister K P Oli and Minister for Land Management Bala Ram Adhikari, among others, for their alleged role in the non-implementation of Supreme Court order in the Giribandhu tea estate land scam in eastern Nepal. Aryal came from Gulmi to Kathmandu to be a singer, but ended up pursuing a career in law instead. Aryal also served four years in the National Human Rights Commission (NHRC), and was based in Geneva with the International Commission of Jurists (ICJ). Rameshore Khanal Finance Minister  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250915110916_1655aeec3a17a048663b95c0dec3ab302300c51d61f6aed682b17fe5c1532c58.jpg" data-media-id="editor_6" data-image-id="20250915110916_1655aeec3a17a048663b95c0dec3ab302300c51d61f6aed682b17fe5c1532c58" data-rendition-name="original" width="1000" height="666" loading="lazy" alt="Finance Minister"> <figcaption>Rameshore Khanal</figcaption> </figure>  Former Finance Secretary Rameshore Khanal has over 30 years of experience in the civil service, and led reforms in government accounting and reporting, public procurements, tax policy and administration. He also served as Chair of the Board in Agricultural Development Bank and was Board Director in Nepal Rastra Bank, Rastriya Banijya Bank, Nepal Telecom Company, and Nepal Airlines. He also served as an economic adviser to Baburam Bhattarai when he was prime minister in 2013. In October last year, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-in-the-red">he led the government formed</a> the High Level Economic Reforms Recommendation Commission. The 440-page recommendation released last month included review of the fixed exchange rate with India and the provision for national political parties to receive grants so candidates did not have to depend on business donors at election time. He has announced that he is not going to take a salary, official residence, body guard or official car for himself. Kulman Ghising Energy, Water Resources and Irrigation Minister, Urban Development Minister, and Minister of Physical Infrastructure and Transport  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250915110920_7704ba4dd27f06d423852bc9792610cc89acdbee6ff0b380904479c095d328ab.jpg" data-media-id="editor_8" data-image-id="20250915110920_7704ba4dd27f06d423852bc9792610cc89acdbee6ff0b380904479c095d328ab" data-rendition-name="original" width="1057" height="769" loading="lazy" alt="Kulman Ghising"> <figcaption>Kulman Ghising</figcaption> </figure>  The man credited for ending 18-hour-a-day loadshedding in Nepal was also considered for the post of Prime Minister before Sushila Karki was chosen by the GenZ movement on Friday. Ghising is a two-time CEO of Nepal Electricity Authority (NEA) before <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/sacking-of-nea-chief-exposes-cronyism">his tenure was cut short</a> by the Oli-led governing coalition earlier this year and replaced by Hitendra Dev Shakya. Ghising’s removal was seen as being politically motivated, and outraged the public and commentators. Many expected Ghising to open his own party ahead of the 2027 elections two years later, but is seen to be close to the Maoist-Centre party. After being appointed NEA chief in 2016, Ghising cut off the dedicated electricity feeds to industries, and redistributed the saved power to the public — ending long power cuts. But he also imported electricity from India to ensure 24-hour supply during the winter dry season to meet demand. Several new hydropower plants came into operation during his tenure, and today Nepal had an electricity surplus.&nbsp; OTHER APPOINTMENTS Elsewhere, Sabita Bhandari Baral has been appointed Nepal’s first female Attorney General.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250915110920_4d60704a1e69309fdfb49a195f538c32159f27748fd2be88693c609ddb98d380.jpg" data-media-id="editor_10" data-image-id="20250915110920_4d60704a1e69309fdfb49a195f538c32159f27748fd2be88693c609ddb98d380" data-rendition-name="original" width="730" height="506" loading="lazy" alt="Female attorney general"> <figcaption>Sabita Bhandari Baral</figcaption> </figure>  By Sunday, total casualties of the nationwide GenZ protests has reached 72. Prime Minister Karki has declared that bereaved families of those killed in the protests will be compensated while hundreds of those still receiving treatment in hospitals will be treated for free. &nbsp;

Nepal interim government faces first hiccups

A security guard with <a href="https://www.bbsm.com.np/" target="_blank">Bhat-Bhateni Supermarket </a>pleads with attackers not to destroy the store. In the widely-shared YouTube video, the mob can be seen surging ahead to ransack and set fire to the store anyway. Twenty-one of the 28 Bhat-Bhateni outlets nationwide were vandalised and looted, 12 of them were completely gutted. The one at Boudha was smouldering for three days till 12 September. Nepal’s biggest supermarket chain is a target in just about every political upheaval in Nepal. The Koteswor branch was looted in the royalist protest in March. This time, the destruction was much more complete and widespread. What began as a youth-led protest against corrupt leaders turned escalated into widespread looting and arson last week, and Bhati-Bhateni’s prominent blue highrise stores became prime targets.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250918110952_d60fbd65ee7fc18d2d0deb74ede8eb5b5f133f32eca13c9281b869e0bd479761.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20250918110952_d60fbd65ee7fc18d2d0deb74ede8eb5b5f133f32eca13c9281b869e0bd479761" data-rendition-name="original" width="1319" height="783" loading="lazy" alt="Bhatbhateni burning"> </figure>  Min Bahadur Gurung toured the ruins of his stores over the weekend, and said: “Watching the buildings burn felt painful to the core of my heart. But we will rebuild, we will rise again.” Born in Khotang, Gurung came to Kathmandu in the 1980s to open a small grocery. Gifted with a strong business sense, he expanded this into Nepal’s biggest retail empire, employing 20,000 people which became essential for consumer goods all over Nepal. Gurung was also admired as a symbol of success. A homegrown businessman who has invested in Nepal, creating jobs so people do not have to migrate, Gurung has also donated generously to many charities. He built a 72-bed emergency ward at the Teaching Hospital, funded scholarships for students from remote areas, and recently pledged Rs410 million to Bhagwan Koirala’s project to establish the Kathmandu nstitute of Child Health. But in Nepal, high profile success breeds envy, attracts threats and demands of extortion. To his loyal supporters, he’s a self-made visionary, but protester last week did not see it that way.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250918110948_1ec60e598ed202a4c4d68025707029bed12452121183433ad512d06fcb90964f.png" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20250918110948_1ec60e598ed202a4c4d68025707029bed12452121183433ad512d06fcb90964f" data-rendition-name="original" width="1583" height="1350" loading="lazy" alt="Min Bahadur Gurung"> <figcaption>Min Bahadur Gurung</figcaption> </figure>  By the evening of 9 September, Bhat-Bhateni stores were in flames inKathmandu and cities across the country. Whatever Gurung’s faults, it is his 20,000 employees, customers, and small vendors who paid the price. At least six bodies charred beyond recognition have been pulled out of the the Boudha outlet and three in Dharan. Some are said to be employees, others could have been looters trapped in the upper floors. But why does Bhat-Bhateni always end up being in the crosshairs? Some in online discourses say it is a symbol of elite privilege and unchecked corporate power. Others say the arson and looting spree was propelled by envy and greed.&nbsp; No matter the motive, the fallout is real: cashiers, stock handlers, managers, delivery staff have lost their income. Suppliers, transporters and small vendors lose sales, the national economy is dragged down, and the attacks could also drive more Nepalis to migrate for work.&nbsp; WIDESPREAD CONDEMNATION On-site, many Bhat-Bhateni staff cleaning up the debris and ash were reluctant to speak to us. It has been too much of a shock. But online, workers have been puring out their distress.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250918110956_749cb4ae348a15cfe5f11e4b821e7aeee06d7270e6b634065da3c1e42f2f186c.jpg" data-media-id="editor_3" data-image-id="20250918110956_749cb4ae348a15cfe5f11e4b821e7aeee06d7270e6b634065da3c1e42f2f186c" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="1200" loading="lazy" alt="Bhatbhateni burning "> <figcaption>Photos: SANGYA LAMSAL</figcaption> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250918110956_90930fa1218b07aa8e4043cd229ca7907c074bfd152559ad2b9799b8d83e2d12.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20250918110956_90930fa1218b07aa8e4043cd229ca7907c074bfd152559ad2b9799b8d83e2d12" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="1200" loading="lazy" alt="Bhatbhateni burning"> </figure>  From Biratnagar, store employee Smritee Joshi shared a haunting video of the outlet still burning the morning after, writing: ‘This was just a supermarket for some of you, but it was more than home for every employee out there. It sears &nbsp;me to see tears on our team members.’ A user wrote in the subreddit r/Nepal on Reddit: ‘This is going to lead to a major crisis. Yes, Bhat-Bhateni might have insurance and might take care of employees for some time, but this is massive damage. It’s not just one branch, 12 branches have been have been looted and destroyed. Most employees will lose their jobs just before Dasain, and businesses are ruined, all at the time of Dashain.’ TikTok creator SpeakUp with Sandesh rushed to Bhat-Bhateni Kalanki as it reopened, posting a video saying: ‘You managed to burn down Min Bahadur Gurung’s store, but not his fighting spirit. Bhat-Bhateni is back in business!’ In Pokhara, employee Ansu Aana posted a tearful video saying, ‘Bhat-Bhateni gives so many young people jobs. Min Bahadur Gurung gave us a chance to earn for our studies and expenses. I don’t believe Gen Z did this – just before, many were urging not to vandalise. So how could the same people set it on fire? We don’t know who infiltrated the protests.’ Aana added: ‘Ministers and politics created no opportunities for youth in this country, and the one who did give us opportunities had his spirit burnt.’ In another video, she warned looters that CCTV and online evidence were being collected, urging them to return stolen goods before facing legal action. A TikTok page called ‘BhatBhateni Chor’ has nearly 400 followers, which has since exposed those who misused the protests to rob stores.&nbsp; Ironically, some protestors chanting against corruption just hours before were also caught stealing, a hypocrisy viewers and fellow demonstrators have sharply condemned online. Hundreds have taken to Facebook and other platforms to share their feelings. Noted conservationist Shailendra Thakali recalled the supermarket’s humble beginnings, posting: ‘Nearly 30 years ago, when my family lived in Naxal, we shopped at a small kirana pasal near the Bhatbhateni temple. None of us imagined that modest shop would oneday become Nepal’s largest retail chain.’ He adds: “Many of us still see the story, the struggle, and the incredible success behind it all. And we believe it deserves respect.’  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025091812090_d07cb4b5681f752235727500bdd20759bc2fa6b0f8785db21f906188298bdaea.jpg" data-media-id="editor_5" data-image-id="2025091812090_d07cb4b5681f752235727500bdd20759bc2fa6b0f8785db21f906188298bdaea" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="1200" loading="lazy" alt="Bhatbhateni burning"> </figure>  The Gurung community has rallied around Bhatbhateni. The Tamu (Gurung) Bouddha Sewa Samit stated: ‘Even after repeated attacks, the supermarket has continued its services uninterrupted. We strongly urge an immediate investigation.’ Likewise, Ekaa Kombucha, Nepal’s first GMP-certified Kombucha brand, declared support: “For countless small and medium businesses like ours, Bhat-Bhateni has been a vital platform, offering space, visibility, and the chance to reach millions across Nepal.’ ‘Amid rising unemployment and capital flight, Bhat-Bhateni has been providing employment to 22,000 youths, not only employment generation, it also significantly continues to contribute to the local economy,’ the Tamu (Gurung) Educational and Career Advancement Network (TECANET) wrote in a statement this week, urging immediate investigation into the destruction of Bhatbhateni and other public and private institutions.&nbsp; Meanwhile, newly appointed Finance Minister Rameshore Khanal visited the heavily damaged Koteswor Bhat-Bhateni on Tuesday, with Min Bahadur Gurung seen walking him through the destruction.

Bhat-Bhateni burning

Nepal’s internationally renowned ophthalmologist Sanduk Ruit has distanced himself from involvement with the Hami Nepal group that has taken the lead in the<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-s-gen-z-protest-turns-deadly"> GenZ movement last week </a>that toppled the Nepal government.
Ruit denied links between the <a href="https://barbarafoundation.org/" target="_blank">Barbara Adams Foundation</a> in Kathmandu where he is chair with the current movement, but added that it had provided workspace for Hami Nepal for relief work during the Covid lockdown five years ago.
“I want to reassure my well-wishers that my heart is clean,” Ruit said in a statement on Monday. “If everyone from all professions work with integrity it will not take long to transform this country. As for myself, I will always be striving to that end from my profession.”
The Foundation was set up by naturalised Nepali citizen Barbara Adams who lived and died in Nepal. Ruit said he had performed <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/nepals-far-sighted-eye-care">cataract operations</a> in both her eyes 25 years ago, and Adams was surprised that such procedures could be done in Nepal at the time.
“She loved Nepal and was committed to help its neediest people,” Ruit said, adding that she left a small endowment to continue the work of the Foundation when she died in 2016.
The Foundation works to uplift underserved communities throughout Nepal, fosters public dialogue and supports<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/investing-in-investigative-journalism"> investigative journalism</a> to improve governance.&nbsp;
At a press conference on Sunday, Barbara Foundation members denied providing any financial support to <a href="about:blank">Hami Nepal</a> or other youth groups, saying it is not allowed by its statute and Nepal’s laws to do so.
The Foundation said in a statement: ‘Some sections have taken advantage of the country’s present fragile and sensitive period to spread false news about us. We did help Hami Nepal during the Covid crisis because it was a youth-based nationwide group. We never had any monetary links with that organisation or its members. We urge the public not to fall for disinformation.”
"I have mentored thousands of young Nepalis, and I am proud of them if they carry on with their good work. But we are not involved in the present situation," added Ruit.
The Foundation clarified that it is fully transparent with its funding which mostly comes from Nepali philanthropists. It received Rs98 million from various donors over the past eight years, and has an annual budget of Rs 5million.
“Barbara Foundation does not have any current contact with Hami Nepal, and I have not seen Sudan Gurung for more than a year,” Ruit added.
Members expressed deep regret for the loss of life and condolences to bereaved families in the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-s-8-september-massacre">GenZ rallies</a> and its aftermath. The foundation also said it was distressed by the<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/kathmandu-burns-despite-pm-resignation"> destruction of public buildings, business and private property </a>last week.
Said Sanduk Ruit: “Every time there is a <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/what-next-nepal">political upheaval in Nepal</a>, they request me to take the lead. But I am clear: my commitment is to serve Nepalis and the sick all over the world with much knowledge, skill and time. I have always worked to spread the word about Nepal and Nepalis all over the world.”

Sanduk Ruit denies aiding Hami Nepal

A week after Nepal’s deadly protests, the country’s three main political parties whose offices were torched have been coming out in public pledging to reform themselves.
Pushpa Kamal Dahal of the Maoist-Centre visited his gutted party headquarters on Tuesday and said it would be rebuilt “on an even grander scale”.&nbsp;
Five-time prime minister Sher Bahadur Deuba of the Nepali Congress (NC) and his wife are still being treated for the wounds they suffered while being attacked at their home on 9 September.&nbsp;
In both parties, younger members have said it is time for their seniors to step down as leaders.&nbsp;
K P Oli who was ousted as prime minister last week after the GenZ protests turned violent with a loss of 74 lives, is also under Nepal Army protection in a base inside Shivapuri National Park outside Kathmandu. But his UML party has said it is not looking at a change in leadership at present.
All the main parties have offered sympathies for the lives lost in last week’s violence, and some members said it was time for a generational change within their parties as well. But all sides tip-toed around one crucial point: the GenZ demand for a change in leadership and political culture.
Former prime ministers Deuba, Dahal and Oli have been playing musical chairs taking turns to be prime ministers in 12 coalition governments in the past 10 years — despite their differing political ideologies.
What stands out in the recent statements of political leaders is not what was said, but what was left unsaid: none have raised the issue of transferring leadership to younger figures, let alone democratising their parties internally.&nbsp;
“Parties that do not appeal to the people, especially young people, will stop being relevant,” says Uddhab Pyakurel, a professor of political sociology at Kathmandu University (KU). “However, political &nbsp;parties are an integral component of our democracy.”&nbsp;
The youth wings of the main three parties do not shy away from criticising the impunity of their seniors, but have not been able to bring internal reform within their organisations.&nbsp;
Activists in the GenZ movement that toppled the regime last week say they do not follow any -isms, but Roshan Thapa Magar of the &nbsp;ANNISU (Revolutionary) that is affiliated to the Maoists says: “Ideologies still matter, the sacrifices of the parties in Nepal’s democratic struggles, and what they continue to represent, remain indispensable.”&nbsp;
He admits being taken aback by the way Maoist leaders and their relatives were portrayed in the #NepoBaby social media campaign: “It was disheartening and disappointing to see how power and position misused by our leaders in a party made up of ordinary people. It is now up to us to reform and restructure our parties to gain this trust again.”
Nawaraj Tripathee, a former Nepal Student Union (NSU) member and now the NC’s Secretary of the Department of Natural Resources says: “Only our party embodies the spirit of democracy etched into its core. But we have lost touch with democracy from within, therefore people are frustrated with us and a leadership that has acted with impunity and a tight grip on power.”
But he adds: “But this public disillusionment with us does not mean that we give up on the values of our party, it means we restructure the leadership and renew at all levels so that a new generation can lift the party up again.”&nbsp;
SHOCK THERAPY
Yet both acknowledge frustrations with their own leadership and say that the voices they raised against corruption were not loud enough to be heard. The deadly protests last week should be shock therapy to the leadership — especially if they want to recoup before early elections that have been called for 5 March 2026.
Thapa Magar says student politics has been important for the bottom-up voice of youth to be brought to the leadership level. He says, “If the GenZ organised the protests better, then we would perhaps not see the kind of looting and destruction on 9 September. We in the student wings of political parties know how to mobilise protests better.”
Over at the CPN-UML student wing ANNFSU, chair Sujan Kadariya and Abdus Miya quit their parties in dramatic fashion via Facebook following the bloodbath on 8 September, only to stage equally dramatic returns.&nbsp;
Miya justified it thus: ‘When Nepali youths fell to bullets, I believed the Prime Minister must resign. Even by 2pm the next day, he still hadn’t stepped down, and at 2:01 I declared I was quitting the party.’ KP Oli resigned shortly after that post, putting Miya in a dilemma.&nbsp;
Kadariya also deleted his post: ‘Feeling that the student politics of our entire generation has failed, I resign as President of the ANNISU Central Committee.” Later, he admitted he had posted out of fear for his life and felt ashamed for betraying the party. His final clarification: he had not officially resigned and remains committed to the party.
Miya and Kadariya expose the thin ideological fabric of student politics in Nepal. Their resignations were seen by many less as statements of principle than opportunism, and precisely what is wrong with the mainstream parties.
The Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) which was the fourth largest in Parliament, also faced criticism for lacking a clear ideological foundation. The RSP’s former Education Minister Sumana Shrestha at first denied rumours she was leaving the party, but resigned anyway the next day declaring: ‘I QUIT’ on social media. &nbsp;She has also said she is not joining the interim government, it remains to be seen if she goes back on that too.
The RSP’s rapid rise is closely tied to its founder Rabi Lamichhane, whose citizenship and cooperatives scandals and his attacks on media continue to test the party’s credibility. Lamichhane’s jailbreak on the second day of the protests was on his 50th birthday, and on Monday he voluntarily went back behind bars.&nbsp;
LEADERSHIP TRAPS
In the last two decades, Nepal’s revolving door politics has seen only three protagonists: Deuba, Dahal and Oli. Earlier this month, Oli changed the UML rulebook to make way for his third term as party chief. Deuba has headed the NC since 2016. Dahal has been a permanent fixture as the Maoists’ great helmsman for the past 30 years.&nbsp;
With the exception of Youth Congress Nepal, the student bodies of UML and the Maoists have not explicitly called for a change in party leadership. ANNISU (Revolutionary)’s Thapa Magar admitted his Maoist party has not held a central committee meeting to discuss succession, but hoped that a democratic route to new leadership could secure the party’s future relevance.
Some within the NC see Gagan Thapa as a natural heir apparent to Deuba. Both rose up the ranks through the party’s student wings and were jailed during the Panchayat. Nawaraj Tripathee of the NC says: “Gagan Thapa is best suited to lead the party at this time. But leaders cannot save parties unless they have institutional frameworks in place for dissenting voices to democratically replace leaders.”
This issue extends beyond the NC. Absolute power within political parties seems to undermine intra-party institutions absolutely. Unchecked leaders have consolidated power in ways that even impact the functioning of Parliament, and hence governance.&nbsp;
Pyakurel says: “It is evident in last week’s protests and its aftermath that political literacy is not strong in the new generation. Calling politics a dirty game does not encourage meaningful participation. Corruption is corruption, it is not politics. Equating corruption with politics implies that corruption is inherent to politics, but it doesn't have to be so.”
Thapa Magar says: “A party is not just its leader, it is an ideology that its members are committed to. Political parties need to democratise their systems and allow meaningful participation of their members, as some are not in the party to climb up the ranks, but to serve a bigger purpose collectively.”
In the case of Rabi Lamichhane, repeated controversies followed by his victimhood narrative and deflections of accountability have gone unchallenged by his own party leaders, enabling him to act with impunity.
RSP founding member Bipin Acharya says criticism about the party’s ideology is unfounded since democratic governance, inclusion and equity are enshrined in the party doctrine.
“It is not fair to compare Rabi Lamichhane to other party leaders, he has not even completed one term. He is innocent until proven guilty and we trust due process in the new judiciary under the GenZ interim government,” he added about Lamichhane.
Nepal’s political parties have deep roots embedded in Nepali society through a network of institutional bodies and sister organisations,” explains Uddhab Pyakurel. “Yet their relevance now depends on whether they can adapt. To regain public trust, they will need to mobilise these structures in ways that genuinely reflect citizens’ concerns, rather than operate as brokers of political power.”&nbsp;
Ayusha Chalise is a communication and development researcher specialising in how politics is experienced in the digital space.

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