<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109101140/636b75829c7e80680e0623f2jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2048" height="1365"/>Nepal’s Communist Party leaders must take note of two events that unfolded in India this week: <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-south-asia-51638345" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the roaring welcome to US President Donald Trump</a> and the ongoing communal riots in Delhi’s northeastern suburb.That the Narendra Modi government was able to put up a great two-day show to woo Trump, who repeatedly praised Modi and said “America loves India” has been somewhat overshadowed by the violence that has claimed over 20 lives in Delhi.The two events depict contrasting pictures: one of a new emerging India eager to engage with superpowers, even taking lead in issues of international concern. And the other of an India engulfed in violence between some Hindus and Muslims. The ruling BJP and Modi, supported by the right-wing groups like RSS and VHP, find themselves in the vortex of this violence.Trump reached India on Monday and along with Modi addressed the ‘Namaste Trump’ rally in Ahmedabad’s Motera Stadium, the largest cricket stadium in the world, attended by over 100,000 people. The two presented their visions for the next phase of Indo-US strategic partnership.Although the much-awaited trade deal did not happen, the two sides pulled together a $3billion military deal, sought commitments to fight terrorism, narco-terrorism and organised crime and signed three MoUs in the health and oil sectors. Trump even discussed the importance of a secure 5G network in India, ahead of trials involving China’s Huawei which he said must be “a tool for freedom, progress, prosperity, not a conduit for suppression and censorship”.Important for Nepal to note is their dialogue in security cooperation. Besides reiterating that the two countries will work to combat “radical Islamic terrorism” which will dearly affect the functioning of SAARC, Trump praised the military cooperation and said that the US and India, along with Japan and Australia, should work together for security of the Indo-Pacific region as the Quad (Quadrilateral Security Dialogue) grouping.The diplomatic and military arrangements of the Quad are widely viewed as a response to the rapidly increasing economic and military power of China in the region. Sandwiched and landlocked between India and China, Nepal will have to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-now-has-to-balance-not-just-india-and-china-but-also-the-west/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">balance its relations between China and a US-backed India</a>.As it is, a $500 million US-funded <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/mcc-row-damages-nepals-credibility/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Millennium Challenge Corporation</a> (MCC) deal to improve Nepal’s connectivity <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/a-millennium-challenge/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">is in limbo</a> because of opposition from a faction of the ruling Communist Party that sees it as a part of the American Indo-Pacific Strategy. Parliamentary ratification of the project has been delayed.The MCC is viewed with much interest by India’s civil society and academia lately, and is seen as a direct counter to China’s Belt Road Initiative (BRI). Sections of the Nepali establishment views India as an obstructionist power, and are trying to develop closer ties with China.But India is finding more grounds of convergence with the US, which now views South Asia as a vital part of its <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/between-two-oceans/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Indo-Pacific Strategy</a>. Smaller countries in India’s periphery are bound to be trapped in this rivalry. With pressing domestic concerns at home over opposition to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/indian-nepalis-alarmed-by-citizenship-amendment-bill/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the Constitution Amendment Act (CAA) India </a>may play silent and quiet diplomacy leaving the US and China to compete for influence in India’s neighborhood.Trump and Modi are said to have discussed developments in South Asia at length during this visit, meaning they will collaborate and closely consult each other on regional matters. Nepal must gear up to deal with a more forceful America in the near future even when it is already grappling with <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/what-is-xi-jinpings-big-surprise/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a dominant China</a>.It is in India’s advantage if the US temporarily fills the vacuum in Nepal, which New Delhi feels is its traditional sphere of influence. So, the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/a-yam-between-3-boulders/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">foreign policy challenge for Nepal</a> will not be to balance between India and China so much anymore, but getting into meaningful dialogue with China and the US to protect its national interest.India considers the US as its ‘natural ally’. The Modi-Trump equation seen in Gujarat and Delhi this week speaks volumes of their friendship and desire to foster closer ties between the world’s oldest and largest democracies. Even in midst of communal riots in Delhi, Trump stated at a press conference “it is up to India” to deal with the CAA matter, quickly adding that Modi is committed to “religious freedom in India.”Most analysts conclude that if Trump is re-elected in November elections, India’s relations with the United States could be further strengthened.The author is a Nepali journalist and researcher based in New Delhi.

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The India, US, Nepal, China quadrangle

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108151128/636a67779c7e80680e0599dcjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="3000" height="1668"/><figcaption>Illustration: BHANU BHATTARAI</figcaption></figure>Legend has it that the real reason Nepal stayed an independent nation state while all around us were colonised was that our powerful neighbours took one look at the terrain and people here and concluded that the country was ungovernable.In the three decades after 1990, Nepal’s elected leaders have shown even fewer smarts than past feudal dynasties. The <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/another-decade-to-get-it-right/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">biggest let-down has been in the last two years</a>, after the unified Nepal Communist Party swept the country’s first three-tier federal elections. The strongest government in Nepal’s democratic history is showing itself to be more feckless than those fragile do-nothing coalitions.Perhaps the latest example of shooting ourselves in the feet has been the wrangling within the NCP over the US Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC). If there was one vivid example of how not to look a gift horse in the mouth, this is it.The awkwardly-named MCC was launched by President George W Bush in 2004 after the 9/11 attacks to reorient American aid towards the kind of infrastructure projects that USAID or the World Bank would not touch. At first, with an ongoing war Nepal was deemed ineligible for the MCC.But by 2012, with <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/how-will-nepal-develop-in-the-next-decade/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">progress in health and education and economic</a>, political and press freedom, as well as prospects for the rule of law, Nepal qualified for membership. A threshold program in Kathmandu went about shortlisting investments in infrastructure that could jumpstart development.Nepali planners, working with their American counterparts, singled out transmission lines and highways as main economic bottlenecks. But they worried that Nepal did not have a governance track record, transparency or policy continuity to guarantee that the MCC’s $500 million could be effectively spent in five years.Finally in 2017, the Nepal government committed $130 million as counterpart funds, and the Hetauda-Damauli-Butwal 400kVA transmission line, as well as rehabilitation of 305km of highways from Itahari-Kakarvitta and Pokhara-Butwal, were selected for the MCC.These were not chosen arbitrarily — serious homework was done to find catalytic projects that could transform economic growth through quick returns on investment. This was a departure from the way planning is normally done in Nepal: ad hoc, whimsical, wasteful. The MCC also made provisions to ensure transparency and minimise the kind of delays in large infrastructure projects that Nepal has become notorious for.Any other government worth its salt, and one that knows what is good for its people, would have jumped at a deal like this. But not Nepal under the NCP. Members of the party’s central committee have objected that the MCC is part of the US <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/between-two-oceans/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Indo-Pacific Strategy</a>, objecting to a clause that would require Indian go-ahead on the transmission line, and at provisions for independent outside auditing.It is true that there is rarely a free lunch in official development assistance — even a grant is somehow tied to the strategic interest of the donor. But the MCC predates both China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the Indo-Pacific Strategy. Yes, there is a new cold war between Beijing and Washington, the two compete globally for political, economic and military domination, and both superpowers have <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-now-has-to-balance-not-just-india-and-china-but-also-the-west/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">strategic concerns in Nepal</a>.But it would be in Nepal’s own strategic interest to take maximum advantage and get both the BRI and the MCC to contribute to Nepal’s infrastructure development. Instead, some sections of the NCP are doing their best to wreck both initiatives so Nepal is left with neither.The reason the MCC needs to be cleared with Delhi is because Nepal’s planners decided to upgrade the transmission line to 400kVA so it can also export electricity to India through Gorakhpur. And having Parliament ratify the compact would ensure political continuity and commitment.Last week in this newspaper we projected an optimistic scenario of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-in-2030/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">what Nepal may look like by 2030</a>. Infrastructure-led development is necessary because jobs will be created during construction, and improved connectivity will have downstream benefits into the future.However, there are good, bad and ugly infrastructure projects. The ‘excavator roads’ that maul our mountains are not just ugly, they are an environmental disaster.  <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/pokhara-nepals-new-aviation-gateway/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Pokhara’s new international airport</a> is too costly for its capacity, but at least it is being built and may help diversify tourism while decongesting Kathmandu.The <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/does-nepal-need-a-4th-international-airport/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">proposed airport in Nijgad</a> is an example of ill-advised megalomania. In fact, it is not an airport project but a timber concession. Yes, it is a game changer but only in the sense that it will <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/economy-ecology-of-nijgad-airport/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">wreck both our economy and environment</a>.Decisions on large, expensive projects must be taken by technocrats and planners who know what they are doing, not by ignorant, populist politicians with edifice complexes who want to commit <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/megalomania-kleptomania/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">colossal blunders like Nijgad</a> and sabotage a worthy initiative like the MCC.<h2>10 years ago this week</h2>Go back 10 years to read <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/issue/482" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nepali Times #482</a>, 25-31 December 2009, and its front page news roundup titled ‘<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=16624#.XgRialUzaUk" target="_blank" rel="noopener">End on a high</a>’. It shows us that the more things change in Nepal, the more they remain the same. An excerpt:‘A rollercoaster week of recriminations and reconciliations began with a three-day Maoist bandh marked by violence and intimidation across the country. It peaked with a massive Maoist assembly in New Baneswor. Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal then delivered a fiery anti-Indian tirade during which he labelled the rest of the political leadership ‘remote-controlled robots,’ who he would bypass to hold direct talks with Delhi.Amidst widespread condemnation, the Maoist supremo weakly argued the following day that his comments were meant to be a ‘satire’ on the shape of things in Nepali politics.’<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/issue/482"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108151128/636a677a9c7e80680e0599ddjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="506" height="807"></a>

A millennium challenge

<img width="640" height="622" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107121144/6368f01d9c7e80680e0359b9jpeg.jpg" alt=""/>There was a time when Nepal just had to worry about balancing its giant northern and southern neighbours, but the world is now multi-polar and getting to be a much more complicated place.As his tour of Europe showed, Donald Trump has reset relationships, frayed post-war alliances, and <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/On-the-way-up/who-teaches-democracy,1020" target="_blank" rel="noopener">upset many apple carts</a>. There has been a tectonic shift in geostrategic ties in the region, which means <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/a-trump-world-us-nepal,3359" target="_blank" rel="noopener">smaller countries like Nepal have to be much more supple and sure-footed in foreign policy and economic diplomacy</a>.One of the clearest indications yet of the current shift is the Trump administration renaming its Pacific Command into Indo-Pacific Command. It builds on President Obama’s Asian ‘pivot’ and ‘rebalance’, and designating India as a Major Defence Partner. But Trump has gone one step further by combining America’s strategic assets in the Indian and Pacific Oceans. Then there has been a revival of the Quad Alliance involving the U.S., Japan, Australia and India which offers countries in the region alternative quality infrastructure to Beijing’s $1 trillion Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) as well as the option of a security umbrella. Last year, Japan, U.S. and India held the Malabar 2017 joint naval exercises in the Indian Ocean. These developments are proof that America’s allies in the region are nervous about China’s global economic clout, and also want to counter its expanding military presence in the two oceans. Once feeling isolated by the BRI, <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/del-ktm%20/obor-or-not-obor-china-india,1051" target="_blank" rel="noopener">India has now found solidarity with the US</a> and Japan to provide Central and South Asian countries with a substitute for connectivity projects.At a recent conference in Singapore organised by the Hawaii-based East-West Centre, US Deputy Secretary of State Walter Douglas said: “Things have changed on the ground, trade and investment is expanding rapidly, and there is the rise of India and its desire to play a larger regional role. The Trump administration’s decision reflects that. However, this is an Indo-Pacific strategy, not an India-Pacific one. It goes beyond India to the other countries in the region.”Although many in the region may see China as a hegemon, Beijing itself considers itself increasingly encircled by America’s allies, and interprets the Indo-Pacific strategy as a way to constrain its rise. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/what-china-really-wants/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Which is why the BRI is China’s way to push its geo-economic agenda</a> through infrastrucutre and connectivity by land, sea and air.Also Read: <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/connecting-Bangladesh-China-India-Nepal,2966" target="_blank" rel="noopener">BIMSTEC, BCIM, BBIN - &amp; 'BCIN</a>, Kanak Mani Dixit<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/business/squeezed-in-the-himalaya,3824" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Squeezed in the Himalaya</a>, Sean ShoemakerThe US is still the dominant player militarily and economically in the region, and the world is struggling to adapt to Trump’s new rules: not paying anymore for the defence of rich allies, raising tariffs, stemming immigration. “We have to deal with this new reality. We used to ask the Americans to do the heavy-lifting in the past, and then criticised them for doing just that. Trump wants more burden-sharing, he wants the region to do more and pick up the slack, and that suits India fine,” said C Raja Mohan, the newly-appointed Director of the Institute of South Asian Studies, a think tank at the National University of Singapore. A US-India strategic alliance could also mean that Washington will be outsourcing even more of its South Asian policy to New Delhi, and allow it to play the regional cop.In ASEAN, the Indo-Pacific strategy is gaining traction among member states spooked about Chinese assertiveness in the South China Sea islands dispute.“No ASEAN country wants to be forced to choose between the US and China, trade wars have no place in the region,” Zakir Hussain, Foreign Editor of The Straits Times in Singapore told the conference.Also Read: <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/the-triangular-relationship,3332" target="_blank" rel="noopener">A Triangular Relationship</a>, Shreejana Shrestha <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/del-ktm%20/India-China-at-tri-juncture-Nepal-India-China-Bhutan,988" target="_blank" rel="noopener">India and China at tri-junctures</a>, Akankshya ShahThere are misgivings about falling into a debt trap in some countries where China has provided huge loans for large infrastructure projects. Sri Lanka had to negotiate a long-term lease on a Chinese-built port project because it couldn’t afford to pay back the loan. There are similar murmurings in Laos, Pakistan and Burma. The US strategy is to provide an alternative to smaller Asian states to China’s BRI through financing for transparent and no-strings-attached infrastructure projects. When he was still US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson actually cited the example of the $500million Millennium Challenge Corporation project in Nepal to upgrade electricity transmission and transportation as an example of America putting its money where its mouth is.For its part, Japan is also trying to counter Chinese inroads in Central and South Asia by channelling its official development aid for high-quality infrastructure projects as a part of the Free and Open Indo-Pacific Strategy to counter the BRI.Shutaro Sano of the National Defence Academy of Japan writes: 'Japan needs to balance its policies towards Central Asia and China in a very sensitive manner with India in mind. this is important because Tokyo is now willing to cooperate under certain conditions, with China's ... Belt and Road Initiative.'What is the message for Nepal from all this? Because of our location between India and China, we have to be even more careful to keep a geostrategic balance between the two giants. Luckily, despite their rivalry and frontier disputes, India and China do not want to inflame their Himalayan border. They need Nepal to be a stable buffer state.However, we have seen from recent history that when push comes to shove the <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=289#.W1HCw9UzbIU">North and South will not do much to guarantee the protection of democracy, pluralism and press freedom</a>. However powerful our neighbours may be, Nepal cannot afford to turn its back on the rest of the world.Also read: <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/concern-over-temporary-protected-status-of-Nepalis-in-US,4072" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Temporary protection</a>, Tsering Dolker<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/elementor-3766/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">India-Nepal Rail Diplomac</a>y, Nepali Times<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/thebrief/2016/03/21/nepal-gains-access-to-ports/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nepal gains access to China ports</a>, Nepali TImes

Between two oceans

The monsoon has got bad press because Nepal’s tourism operators actively told visitors to avoid <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/managing-the-monsoon?%2F">the rainy season</a>. It is time to change that. The reason can be found right here in the vast alpine meadows of Central Nepal where this time of year you can walk on velvet grass of pastures abloom with delicate pink, red and yellow flowers as the mist rolls up the valley. There is no sound except the hum of bumble bees. &nbsp;&nbsp; There are dozens of places across high Nepal called Chaurikharka, which means yak pasture. But this particular Chaurikharka in Rukum East located at an altitude of 4,000m stands out for its serene beauty, rustic charm and bucolic setting. There is just the occasional chime of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/when-yaks-go-so-does-culture">yak bells</a> in the distance, and the sharp whistle of herders corralling sheep. &nbsp;&nbsp; The grass shoots are so fragile that one hesitates to step on them, the rounded ridges appear and quickly vanish in waves of mist. With the<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/before-the-next-monsoon"> arrival of monsoon</a>, these meadows are a soothing shade of green dotted with millions of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/review/the-anatomy-of-a-flower?%2F=">multi-coloured flowers</a>. Until very recently, it took a week or so to hike up to places like Chaurikharka, but with the expansion of the road network even to these far-flung mountains in the lap of Dhaulagiri, they are much more accessible. It is just a three-hour uphill from the Mid-Hill Highway on the border between Baglung and Rukum East.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250802130828_a0b06b494d751b2144ffbbf10894ea64b29e8aed844bc8c66171783abfaf4e16.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20250802130828_a0b06b494d751b2144ffbbf10894ea64b29e8aed844bc8c66171783abfaf4e16" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1365" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon"> </figure>  Purists would say that such easy access devalues the sanctity of these remote high meadows, but it also means more people will be moved to treasure the experience, appreciate <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/natures-fragile-gift-to-nepal">the value of nature </a>so they can take steps to protect it.&nbsp; To be sure, the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/deadly-monsoon-in-nepal-turns-deadlier">monsoon season can be challenging for road travel</a>. The roads are rough even at the best of times, and in the monsoon they become muddy and treacherous, often blocked by<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/monsoon-deluge-in-nepal"> landslides</a>. But that could be precisely the kind of adventure that the more intrepid visitors crave. Improved road connectivity has already made Chaurikharka and places like Badimallika &nbsp;and other sacred lakes in the mountains of western Nepal popular with domestic tourists. What is driving this traffic is the urge to go to exotic new places and share videos and selfies on social media. Several of Nepal’s travel vloggers have visited Chaurikharka and popularised the place, enticing followers on TikTok or YouTube to retrace their footsteps. But even as they become more popular, these fragile and once-remote places should be protected from over-tourism.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110736_f97110b7cdc3e7f80d5877690948fc9f4c95a09c583deb23b07355491e6c5446.jpg" data-media-id="editor_8" data-image-id="20250731110736_f97110b7cdc3e7f80d5877690948fc9f4c95a09c583deb23b07355491e6c5446" data-rendition-name="original" width="1083" height="699" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon NT"> </figure>  <h2>INCREASING FOOTFALL</h2> Chaurikharka is located in Bhume Rural Municipality of East Rukum, near the scenic valley of Dhorpatan in Baglung district. Even in the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/monsoon-culture">middle of the monsoon</a>, there is a steady stream of Nepali hikers trooping to these high pastures – especially during festival days like Saune Sankranti which this year was on 17 July and actually marks the auspicious beginning of the monsoon here. “This year the rains have not been as heavy and there have been some clear mornings when we could see everything from Dhaulagiri to Machapuchre,” says Khageswar Bhandari, who trekked up here from the road. “The flowers, the greenery and the snowy mountain views make this an incredibly unique place.”&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250802130824_1b9e26f2e9853fdfe69154bb42a7c9ea6da4bf4940efc1da99b304dcfbd7d3d9.jpg" data-media-id="editor_10" data-image-id="20250802130824_1b9e26f2e9853fdfe69154bb42a7c9ea6da4bf4940efc1da99b304dcfbd7d3d9" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1152" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon"> </figure>  Chaurikharka is worthwhile to get to in any season, but it has a different charm during the monsoon. Word has spread and because it is now easy to get to from Baglung or even Pokhara, people have been flocking here.&nbsp; “Holidays and Saturdays see the largest crowds, with up to 500 visitors every day,” says ward chair Mankaji Pun of Bhume.&nbsp; There was a time not too long ago when local herders brought sheep, goats, cows, buffaloes, horses, and mules to graze here during the monsoon. Although there are still livestock around, animals have been replaced by visitors taking selfies. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-monsoon-and-nature-s-arithmetic">The monsoon, and nature’s arithmetic</a>, Tom Robertson Ward Chair Pun says infrastructure development is his main priority. A foot trail to Chaurikharka was built last year by the Tourism Division Office in Kohalpur, but access via the Raniwas-Koipa road section still remains challenging.&nbsp; “If we get more budget, we can improve the road and facilities to make Chaurikharka the main tourist attraction of this region,” says Bhume Municipality Chair Hom Prakash Shrestha. “After that, we hope to promote Chaurikharka as a top tourist spot.”&nbsp; Economic activity is also picking up with the arrival of visitors, but there seems to be a need to manage the makeshift sheds made of corrugated sheets that spoil the beauty of the place. Tea shops and lodges are also available but facilities are basic. Kuldeep Neupane took a three-day trip from Ghorahi in Dang to visit Chaurikharka recently, and says: “This is an ideal trip to make a quick getaway and let nature recharge your mind and body. And it is much more fun with a tent, to watch the sunrise over the Himalaya or the mist blowing in.”

Visit Nepal in the monsoon

Two weeks ago, Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli announced jubilantly on social media that Nepal had achieved a historic annual growth of 81.8% in exports. He was right. Nepal’s trade did take a great leap forward compared to last year. But the dramatic rise was mainly due to processed soya bean oil.&nbsp; However, Nepal does not produce the edible oil it exports. In fact, the soya and palm oil that make up 44% of total exports are imported from Southeast Asia and South America, and simply re-exported, mostly to India.&nbsp; Under the SAFTA (South Asian Free Trade Area) Agreement, Nepal can export products to India duty-free if it has at least 30% value-added. Nepal’s traders have taken advantage of SAFTA even though the edible oils they export do not reach that value addition threshold. “The 30% value addition requirement is often only on paper,” says former commerce secretary Purushottam Ojha. “It is clear that simply packaging edible oils in Nepal does not fulfil the terms of the trade agreement.” Prime Minister Oli is aware of this, and even called Nepal’s export figures “fake” at an earlier event. The government is relying on other iffy figures to suggest that Nepal’s economy is strong and getting stronger. For example, the value of imports rose by 13.25% in 2024-25 compared to the previous fiscal year.&nbsp; Some of it was due to a jump in electric vehicle imports worth Rs 31.76 billion, but mostly it was because more wholesale soya oil was imported to be re-packaged and sold in India. The very fact that the government boasts about increased imports is an indication of how much it relies on taxing them for revenue. Touting such trade figures cannot be the basis to claim an economic rebound.&nbsp; “A jump in the value of imports can be interpreted as an increase in purchasing power, but it is not evidence of a stronger economy,” says economist Keshav Acharya. “Even though imports have increased, Nepal's domestic production and productive capacity have not improved.” Nepal Rastra Bank's semi-annual economic activity study report shows that industrial production was down in the first six months of the last fiscal year. This despite an increase in the number of new industries registered and investment commitments. Out of the Rs70.2 billion proposed foreign investment, Nepal received only Rs17.9 billion last year.&nbsp; Meanwhile, the rate of capital formation was limited to 24% last year, which is lower than the year before, suggesting that new investment, job creation and economic expansion all declined. If domestic production does not improve in relation to this year’s inflated trade figures, the outflow will put pressure on foreign exchange reserves like it did three years ago. At that time, Nepal borrowed from the IMF under its Extended Credit Facility Program to kickstart the economy.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025080710084_2cdaaa5795828c4a7de93a0604ba884ef0a8b8f24cccd939f6c24e279ab6058f.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="2025080710084_2cdaaa5795828c4a7de93a0604ba884ef0a8b8f24cccd939f6c24e279ab6058f" data-rendition-name="original" width="1633" height="723" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal's bubble economy NT"> <figcaption>Source: NEPAL RASTRA BANK</figcaption> </figure>  The macroeconomy is on firm footing with foreign exchange reserves at a comfortable Rs2,520 billion in May, up 23% from last year. This was largely due to remittances, and partly due to a falling NPR exchange rate. Real estate transactions and the stock market index have also been climbing as a result of government policies to revive the sector.&nbsp; However, former executive director of Nepal Rastra Bank Nar Bahadur Thapa cautions: “This is not organic growth, it is the result of deliberate policy decisions to relax rules on real estate and stock markets transactions.” In reality, the sharp rise in land prices have increased the cost of production, and excessive monetisation of the real estate has become the main source of Nepal’s economic woes. The central bank has announced a slew of new policies, shifting the terms of loan repayment for industrialists and entrepreneurs, reducing interest rates, and injecting more working capital — all designed to inject adrenaline into the real estate and stock market sectors.&nbsp; When he was governor, Mahaprasad Adhikari made several financial reforms during the latter half of his tenure to stimulate the economy, including tightening credit flow.&nbsp; By the last fiscal year, additional financial reforms had resulted in a credit expansion rate of around 8%. As the pace of credit expansion slows, real estate prices have started to fall. This is actually beneficial to the economy, because it lays the foundation for improvements in land-related entrepreneurship, production, and the construction sector. Just because real estate and the stock market transactions increase, it does not indicate an economic turnaround — especially when manufacturing and productive sector continues to languish.&nbsp; “It is foolish to believe that real estate and the stock market have magically revived our economy. Agriculture employs more than half of the population, but it is in decline. Investment in the productive sector has not increased, and job creation has not increased.” Two years ago, Nepal’s industrialists, business leaders, and political leadership predicted a recession amidst a sluggish business, declining market demand, large-scale job loss, and a shrinking real estate and share market.&nbsp; Still, the economy grew by 3.36% in fiscal year 2023/24. In fact, Nepal’s economy has grown nominally over the last two decades even when all sectors of the economy are in decline.&nbsp; Says Keshav Acharya: “The growth in trade, real estate, and the stock market are bubbles. The real economy remains stagnant.”

Nepal’s bubble economy

The final investigation report on the crash of a Saurya Airlines jet on 24 July 2024 at Kathmandu airport has revealed flaws in the carrier’s technical operation procedures, poor monitoring by the Civil Aviation Authority of Nepal (CAAN) and gaps in the airport’s emergency response. Eighteen people including a child were killed, and only the captain survived as the plane plunged seconds after takeoff, crashing within the airport perimeter. This was the latest in a series of aircraft accidents in previous years, and further tarnished Nepal’s already poor aviation safety record and contributed to the country being retained in the EU’s air safety list. &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; The circumstances in the Saurya crash were different from the Yeti Airlines crash in Pokhara in January 2022 that killed all 72 on board, and two Tara Air crashes in February 2016 and May 2022 on approach to Jomsom that together claimed 45 lives. However, all four tragedies were a result of negligence of carriers and crew, failure to follow procedures, regulatory slackness, and overconfidence. The Saurya crash, especially, was a glaring example of how an ailing airline broke its own rules to allow passengers, including non-employees, a joy ride to Pokhara on a maintenance ferry flight. CRASH REPORT The Final Investigation Report prepared by the Aircraft Accident Investigation Commission and released on the first anniversary of the crash last week carried a long list of rules that were ignored or broken, and of regulatory failure. The first mistake was to cram spares, tools and inflammable chemicals needed for the aircraft’s C-Check in Pokhara into the cargo hold flouting its own ground handling procedures.&nbsp; There was no check-in of passengers, some of whom were not even employees – even though regulations say only flight and maintenance crew should be on board a maintenance positioning flight. Many brought their own luggage into the plane and stored it unsecured in the cabin. There was no flight attendant to give a safety briefing to passengers. The load and trim charts given to the flight crew were rough estimates, and the total takeoff weight of the plane was 18,300kg plus or minus 200 kg. That would still have been all right, but there was a glaring mistake in the speedchart Saurya pilots were using to calculate the minimum takeoff speed (known as VR), and it had been wrong ever since the 21-year-old aircraft entered service with the airline in 2017. FAULTY DATA&nbsp; The Commission probed Flight Data Recorder inputs from previous takeoffs of the Canadian-built CRJ200-LR in 2023-2024 and found that the undetected error in the speedchart had caused the plane to pitch up at an abnormal rotation rate at least 18 times on previous takeoffs.&nbsp; Any rotation rate more than 3°/sec is regarded as unusual. But on at least two occasions, this aircraft with tail number 9N-AME had rotation rates of 5.8°/sec and 5.5°/sec, the second one was when the pilot who survived was flying in March 2024.&nbsp; On this particular day, the plane’s rotation rate was 6.5°/sec, causing it to go into a deep stall soon after takeoff, the Commission report said. Essentially, the plane was not flying fast enough down the runway to take off safely.&nbsp; It is not yet clear whether excess weight, unsecured luggage, wrong centre of gravity were also factors, but relying on a faulty speedchart for the given takeoff weight, the captain flying pulled back on the yoke before the plane had reached takeoff speed and at a pitch angle that was too steep. The investigation report says the plane then went into a deep stall and started banking right with the stick shaking. At this point, the flight officer on the right hand seat is heard on the cockpit voice recorder saying: “Whoa, whoa, whoa. Sir, Sir, Sir…” It then banked left before the pilot flying turned the plane sharply to the right again in an evasive action to avoid the parking aprons of the international and domestic terminals. Had he not done so, there would have been a disaster of a much greater magnitude at Kathmandu airport that day. The plane scraped the runway with its right wingtip, collided with a container having helicopter spare parts, and plunged into a gully east of the runway, exploding in a fireball. The investigation also noted that the impact forces seemed to be survivable for some occupants. The fire trucks took unnecessarily long to reach the site even though it was inside the airport perimeter. The absence of an ICAO-standard runway strip, inadequate rescue drills, lack of training, and a blocked emergency service gate leading to the crash site were cited as other factors. &nbsp;&nbsp; <h2>Timestamp of a Disaster</h2>  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110724_39cdd04693994ce6e55a5b302905c0fa4884fe85bed21ff0779bb1439f3a5725.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20250731110724_39cdd04693994ce6e55a5b302905c0fa4884fe85bed21ff0779bb1439f3a5725" data-rendition-name="original" width="778" height="826" loading="lazy" alt="Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy NT"> </figure>  11:10:34 - The Saurya Airlines CRJ200 on the takeoff roll from runway 02. It had a takeoff weight of about 18,300kg, but the pilot’s speedcard had a previously undetected mistake about the minimum takeoff speed. 11:10:55 -The plane with tail number 9N-AME goes into deep stall soon after takeoff because it does not have enough speed to lift its weight. The plane also has an abnormally steep nose-up attitude.&nbsp; 11:11:03 - Without enough speed to generate lift, the plane banks right, then left and right again in CCTV photos taken from the domestic apron (below). If it had not banked right, it could have hit the aprons and terminal buildings. Seen parked is Saurya’s other CRJ200 with tail number 9N-ANM.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110732_608132f7225c649125cca2691dd6a6bf930984c5b359e888d7ad9e5eacce3afd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20250731110732_608132f7225c649125cca2691dd6a6bf930984c5b359e888d7ad9e5eacce3afd" data-rendition-name="original" width="770" height="555" loading="lazy" alt="Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy NT"> </figure>  11:11:08 - The plane scrapes the runway with its right wingtip, and falls into the gully. The captain is thrown off the left side of the cockpit and survives. 11:11:15: Plane explodes in a fireball inside the airport perimeter. Firefighters take time to reach the site because of lack of access road and a blocked gate. Read the full investigation report <a href="https://www.tourism.gov.np/files/9N-AME%20AIC%20Final%20Report.pdf">here</a>.

Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy

French citizen Louis arrived in Nepal for the first time earlier this year, planning to <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/the-abcs-of-a-winter-trek-in-nepal">trek the Annapurna Circuit </a>before heading down to Bardia to hopefully catch a glimpse of some<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-counting-its-tigers"> tigers</a>. Before he began his journey from Besisahar, Louis (who only revealed his first name) had imagined breathing crisp mountain air, and following the melodious gurgle of the Marsyangdi.&nbsp; Instead, he had to breathe fumes and dust all the way to Chame. Louis says he masked his face with a handkerchief: “It was not what I expected, this is not right.”  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025080304080_f03fce1527cf8a63178e4e82589a1a7096c8cfa28893ca4a5f7fe82d91a6e38a.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="2025080304080_f03fce1527cf8a63178e4e82589a1a7096c8cfa28893ca4a5f7fe82d91a6e38a" data-rendition-name="original" width="2419" height="1814" loading="lazy" alt="Manang trails NT 1"> </figure>  Many other trekkers are similarly disappointed as roads have been built along what used to be <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/a-walk-back-in-time-chandragiri-hatiban">walking trails</a>. Manang and Humla are the last remote regions in the Himalaya to be connected to the national road network. &nbsp;Construction of the 87km Besisahar-Manang road began in 1994, but was stalled during <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/14-years-after-conflict-no-closure-in-nepal">the Maoist conflic</a>t, and finally finished in 2012.&nbsp; Most of it has not yet been blacktopped, and sections have been carved out of vertical cliff faces, making them treacherous. But it has allowed road access to Manang, a journey that previously took a week on foot.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025080304084_32b3ca875a0df9f1dd42dbe915e6f6a2cd4f2e53f1cf2d3ee5cbdb3435905000.jpg" data-media-id="editor_5" data-image-id="2025080304084_32b3ca875a0df9f1dd42dbe915e6f6a2cd4f2e53f1cf2d3ee5cbdb3435905000" data-rendition-name="original" width="2400" height="1505" loading="lazy" alt="Manang trails NT 1"> </figure>  While the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/the-road-out-of-nepal">road has improved access</a>, it has impacted on<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/trekking-in-the-time-of-climate-change"> trekking tourism </a>— the mainstay of Manang’s economy. The number of tourists visiting the scenic valley behind the Annapurnas grew from 21,245 in 2023 to 30,866 in 2024. The Annapurna Circuit is known for unique sights like <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=9194">Tilicho</a>, one of the highest lakes in the world, the Thorong La pass that connects Manang to Mustang, and the valley’s own rich cultural heritage. Thorong La at 5,416m is the highest hiking pass in the world, and was used by locals for trade with Mustang before it became a <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/comment/lift-restrictions-on-upper-mustang">popular trekking route</a>. &nbsp; “For guests, the excitement of reaching Thorong La is now overshadowed by their disappointment of having to journey through dusty roads to get there,” says Manang lodge-owner Ongma Gurung. “That is the complaint we get the most.” <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/tourism-that-treads-lightly-on-the-land">Local tourism </a>operators are trying to get the government to build alternative foot trails. But there have been delays due to a lack of budget.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025080304084_c5f76e398182785bb17846a148e3ca89de5687b4623580f8e2d725a7a287edfa.jpg" data-media-id="editor_11" data-image-id="2025080304084_c5f76e398182785bb17846a148e3ca89de5687b4623580f8e2d725a7a287edfa" data-rendition-name="original" width="2419" height="1762" loading="lazy" alt="Manang trails"> </figure>  The Naso Rural Municipality has identified other routes along the Annapurna Circuit in Chyamche, Tal, and Khotro so trekkers can bypass heavy vehicles involved in the construction of the Manang-Marsyangdi Hydropower Project. “But the local government cannot do everything,” admits the chair Dhan Bahadur Gurung. “And for leaders in Kathmandu, Manang is out of sight and out of mind.” Munindra Jung Gurung represents Manang in the Gandaki Provincial Assembly, and says he has raised the issue in <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/pokhara-s-tourism-woes">Pokhara</a>. He is hopeful there will be a hearing. To be sure, the road is not all bad news. Locals benefit, the number of visitors has grown, and trekkers can now also save time and use it to explore <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=5960">side valleys in Manang</a>, visiting the villages like Nar and Phu. Annapurna Conservation Area (ACA) chief Rabin Kadariya concedes that the road to Upper Manang was crucial to connect the remote region with the rest of Nepal, but adds: “We have built an alternative trail connecting Talgaun, and we will consult local communities about their priorities on other hiking trails.”&nbsp;