<figure><img width="1000" height="666" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111410114/6372052b9c7e80680e0b28a0jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Photo: SHAURYA CEMENTS</figcaption></figure>Nepal’s economic planners are proud of the fact that Nepal is now self-sufficient in cement. Indeed, domestic production has expanded greatly to meet <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/A-concrete-future,2251" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">demand that has sky-rocketed since the 2015 earthquake</a>.The boom is seen in any drive along Nepal’s highways — the wall of every other house is painted in glaring signs of various cement companies. Nepal’s cement market is so lucrative that two Chinese joint venture companies <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/going-is-tough-for-chinese-investor-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Hongshi and Huaxin are among the biggest in the sector</a>.As recently as 45 years ago there was only one cement factory, Himal Cement on the outskirts of Kathmandu. There are now some 72 plants operating across Nepal that can produce 15 million tonnes of cement a year.Together, 21 of these factories with mining capacity extract 12 million tonnes of limestone from 46 quarries in the country. There is so much <a style="letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=6674" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">limestone in these mountains</a> that geologists estimate there is enough to sustain cement production in Nepal for another 100 years at least.However, Nepal’s cement boom is coming at enormous environmental and social cost. Investors and shareholders have gotten richer while the land and people poorer. Unregulated quarrying, lack of safeguards, and overexploitation have led to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/weve-seen-fire-and-weve-seen-rain/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">worsening floods and landslides</a>, as well as air, water and soil pollution. <figure><img width="1077" height="600" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111410114/6372052e9c7e80680e0b28a1jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>50 years ago a Panchayat-era minister proudly said that Nepal needed more smoke stacks to develop. Today, Dhruvaraj Thapa of the Nepal Cement Manufacturers' Association echoes the same mindset.“We cannot overlook the benefits, including employment opportunities, provided by the cement industry,” says Thapa. “We will limit our possibilities if we constantly bring up environmental protection.”The government would like to think that the cement industry is helping the economy boom and earn revenue. While it is true that domestic production has reduced the need to import, what local and national governments get in terms of royalty fee is small change compared to the enormous environmental cost. Nepal’s cement companies pay only Rs60 for each tonne of limestone in royalty fee compared to Rs140 across the border in India. Yet the market price of cement is twice as high in Nepal as in India.In the past eight years, the government has collected only Rs2.84 billion in royalty from cement industries. On the other hand, the yearly turnover from the industry, says Thapa, amounts to Rs150 billion.For example, Sarbottam Cement extracted 371,000 tonnes of limestone from its quarry in Palpa district in the fiscal year 2019/2020. The company earned a profit of Rs1.17 billion, but paid royalty worth only Rs20.2 million — a mere 1.9% of its earnings.Similarly, Shivam Cement distributed Rs1.4 billion (24% of its total profit) to shareholders in the fiscal year 2020/2021, but the company paid just Rs26 million in royalty to the government.At the Department of Mines and Geology, director general Ram Prasad Ghimire advocates raising the fee for limestone extraction from quarries to a more realistic level, taking into account the environmental cost. Thapa at the Cement Manufacturers' Association counters, saying this could only make cement costlier for builders.   <figure><img width="1077" height="315" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111410114/637205319c7e80680e0b28a2jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Nepal’s annual per capita cement consumption is 303kg, which is higher than India (195kg), but much less than China (1,716kg) and even Bhutan (734kg). At the present rate of growth spurred by infrastructure projects and housing, domestic cement demand could reach 25.8 million tonnes by 2025.  This means an unsupervised cement industry would end up not just affecting ground water, disturb fragile mountain slopes to trigger landslides, but also increase Nepal’s carbon footprint at a time when the country has <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/post-cop26-nepals-real-work-now-begins/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">committed to net-zero emissions by 2050</a>.Environmental impact is not just something that concerns city-based activists or non-governmental organisations. Mahendra Pandey, a local in Dobhan of Palpa, knows all too well what having a cement quarry in the neighbourhood can do to agriculture.“Everyone talks about the benefits of the cement industry, but no one cares about how it affects us farmers here,” says Pandey, who has to deal with the impact on groundwater supply, soil and air pollution from the nearby Sarbottam Cement plant. “The government is no help, it does not care about what the people here on the ground face.”It is not that the government is unaware. All new cement factories have to complete an environmental impact assessment (EIA), but this can be easily circumvented, while report after report submitted to the government have been warning about the need for harm reduction in the cement industry. In a <a href="https://www.nrb.org.np/contents/uploads/2021/05/2078.01.25-Final-Draft-of-Cement.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">2021 survey</a> conducted by Nepal Rastra Bank, 92% of respondents said that cement industries caused air, water, noise and soil pollution in their communities, severely impacting their livelihoods.But in a country where an overwhelmingly high number of mayors and ward chairs are <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/from-nepali-press/Elected-contractors,4182" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">contractors</a>, and big companies have political protection, awareness is insufficient for corrective action. <figure><img width="1200" height="700" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111410114/637205339c7e80680e0b28a3jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>It took two decades of <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=11399" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">relentless activism for the government to close down Himal Cement Factory</a> in Chobhar which had affected the health of Kathmandu Valley’s population. But that was because it was the capital.Since then, the government has allowed two private cement factories to operate in Dhading’s Naubise which is situated in a narrow Valley that traps suspended particles.Locals living near mining sites in Palpa and Dang have long opposed the operation of cement factories in the districts due to increased pollution in the region. Residents in Makwanpur have also held protests against the limestone mines operated by Shivam Cement, citing environmental pollution.In fact, not even World Heritage Sites like Lumbini are protected: there are now a dozen cement factories within the 10km-radius from the birthplace of the Buddha.  Just last week, the Commission for Investigation of Abuse of Authority (CIAA) filed a case against nine cement companies, their operators as well as officials of the Department of Mines and Geology. They have been accused of exploiting more limestone than permitted without considering the environmental consequences and for evading royalty fees.There is no government monitoring on place to check the amount of limestone being extracted. The royalties are determined based on the documents submitted by the companies themselves. As such, there is every possibility that more limestone is being extracted than permitted.Cement factories transporting limestone and raw materials from quarry to factory have also destroyed road surfaces in many parts of the country. Ironically, an industry that is supposed to be the backbone of infrastructure is ending up destroying infrastructure.In a <a href="https://www.karmaquest.org/journal/index.php/ILGDI/article/view/85/59" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">research article</a> on waste management of limestone quarrying in Nepal published in the Journal of Development Innovations in July 2021, authors Birendra Sapkota and Kumar Khadka directly link soil erosion to poor management and monitoring of Nepal’s limestone mines and harmful excavation practices.Shivam Hongshi, one of the largest cement companies in Nepal, obtained the EIA approval in 2017 after the project was already half-completed. Huaxin Cement Industry was up and running in 2019 without EIA approval, concerns over which were even raised in Parliament. Moreover, in May 2021, the Ministry of Forests and Environment made amendments to the Environmental Protection Regulations 2020 such that development projects will now be allowed to use up to 25 hectares of forest land after conducting only a preliminary environmental assessment. Previously, an EIA was mandatory for all projects requiring more than five hectares.  <figure><img width="1200" height="700" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111410114/637205379c7e80680e0b28a4jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Read also:  <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/drawing-a-line-in-the-sand/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Drawing a line in sand</a>, Bhrikuti Rai <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/drowning-in-sorrow/">Drowning in Sorrow</a>, Mukesh Pokhrel Meanwhile, even as Nepalis living and working in proximity to mining sites and cement industries bear the brunt of resulting environmental and health crises, they receive few financial benefits. Ghimire of the Department of Mines says that the government has not yet tried to ensure that the benefits of the industry are more equitably distributed, as is the case with investments in hydroelectric schemes. “Stone, gravel and sand mining are controlled by a select few Nepali companies who reap the financial benefits while the locals incur damages to their livelihoods and the environment,” says former finance secretary Rameshore Khanal. Indeed, the excavation and sale of aggregates, boulders and sand from riverbeds have become so lucrative that local governments depend on them for revenue for development work. An estimated Rs100 billion worth of riverine products are traded annually in Nepal, with at least 600 ‘crusher’ industries converting them to raw materials for infrastructure. Meanwhile, the contribution to local governments is negligible compared to the huge profits made by the contractors who usually have local political leaders as partners or in their payroll.  Nepal’s <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/who-now-owns-nepals-forests/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">community forestry</a> program is internationally acclaimed, and it doubled the country’s tree cover in 25 years to nearly 45%. This is mainly because the responsibility of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/mini-forests-to-make-kathmandu-more-liveable/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">forest management</a> was handed over to local consumer groups which have expanded to over 22,000 all over the country.  At <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/copout-at-cop26/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">COP26 in Glasgow</a>, Nepal pledged to increase its <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-can-up-forest-cover-to-45-by-2030/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">forest cover to 45%</a> of land area. But the overexploitation of natural resources, such as the government-owned forest areas and vacant lands for infrastructure, with hotels, cable car ventures, hydropower plants, haphazard housing colonies now threaten these gains.   Economist Pushkar Bajracharya is studying how benefits of natural resource exploitation accrues to Nepalis. He says: "When natural resources are managed in a way that benefits the people, it can reduce poverty and increase income." But Nepal clearly has not found that balance as it hurtles headlong down an unsustainable growth path. Translated from the <a href="https://www.himalkhabar.com/news/127559" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Nepali original</a> in the December 2021-January 2022 issue of Himal Khabarpatrika.

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Nepal struggles to balance nature and industry

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107171144/636936869c7e80680e03fde6jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="976"/><figcaption>Photo: YUVARAJ SHRESTHA</figcaption></figure>At a ministerial review meeting last month, Prime Minister K P Oli warned bureaucrats he would not take “If’s and but’s” anymore in expediting infrastructure projects. This was his latest strict instruction to ministries to deliver results.Various Parliament committees have also issued similar instructions. Cabinet ministers and secretaries have repeatedly instructed government officials to be result-oriented. Yet, a report this week by the Office of the Auditor General shows that four months into the fiscal year, only 11% of the budgeted capital expenditure has been spent. More frightening: the government spent three times that amount on salaries, administrative costs an overheads.“It is clear that issuing instructions alone will not work,” says economist Keshav Acharya, “instead of more instructions we need to pinpoint obstacles to implementation of projects and remove them.”Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/communist-capital/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Communist capital</a>, EditorialHowever, the government already has monitoring and evaluation mechanisms in place: at the Prime Minister’s Office, the National Planning Commission, and the finance and other ministries have their own project assessment committees. Most experts blame the lack of accountability in the political leadership and a lethargic bureaucracy.There was hope that with a strong government commanding a <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/two-thirds-empty/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">two-thirds majority in Parliament</a>, and devolution of power to local governments, things would change. But not only has the development budget remained unspent, but there has been shocking over-spending in current expenditure (administrative cost, salaries, vehicle purchases, or allowances on foreign trips). In the first quarter, the national government spent three times more on current expenditure than on capital disbursement.The government is spending on cars, but not on maintaining roads. Whatever little is disbursed is mis-spent on unnecessary projects like this road that cuts through an ecologically sensitive wetland in Pokhara Valley (above).Most provincial governments have managed to spend even less – only about 1% of their capital expenditure in the first quarter.The inability to spend the development budget has been a chronic malaise in Nepal, but this year, it is worse because of Kathmandu’s reluctance to devolve financial decision-making to local governments. This has triggered a <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/crunching-the-numbers-on-credit/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">credit crunch in the banking sector</a> creation and encouraged migration. At this rate the government will not meet its <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/guest-editorial/guest-editorial-Nepal-economic-growth,923" target="_blank" rel="noopener">8% growth target</a> this year.Says economist Dilliraj Khanal: “The entire system of development administration has become so ineffective that unless it is overhauled, we will not see growth and progress.”Read also:<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/calendar-of-economic-change/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Calendar of economic change</a>, Om Astha Rai<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/editorial-Nepal-economy,3746" target="_blank" rel="noopener">White swans</a>, Editorial<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/guest-editorial/banking-crisis-explained,1096" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Banking crisis explained</a> , Suman Joshi

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Roadblocks

The monsoon has got bad press because Nepal’s tourism operators actively told visitors to avoid <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/managing-the-monsoon?%2F">the rainy season</a>. It is time to change that. The reason can be found right here in the vast alpine meadows of Central Nepal where this time of year you can walk on velvet grass of pastures abloom with delicate pink, red and yellow flowers as the mist rolls up the valley. There is no sound except the hum of bumble bees. &nbsp;&nbsp; There are dozens of places across high Nepal called Chaurikharka, which means yak pasture. But this particular Chaurikharka in Rukum East located at an altitude of 4,000m stands out for its serene beauty, rustic charm and bucolic setting. There is just the occasional chime of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/when-yaks-go-so-does-culture">yak bells</a> in the distance, and the sharp whistle of herders corralling sheep. &nbsp;&nbsp; The grass shoots are so fragile that one hesitates to step on them, the rounded ridges appear and quickly vanish in waves of mist. With the<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/before-the-next-monsoon"> arrival of monsoon</a>, these meadows are a soothing shade of green dotted with millions of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/review/the-anatomy-of-a-flower?%2F=">multi-coloured flowers</a>. Until very recently, it took a week or so to hike up to places like Chaurikharka, but with the expansion of the road network even to these far-flung mountains in the lap of Dhaulagiri, they are much more accessible. It is just a three-hour uphill from the Mid-Hill Highway on the border between Baglung and Rukum East.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250802130828_a0b06b494d751b2144ffbbf10894ea64b29e8aed844bc8c66171783abfaf4e16.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20250802130828_a0b06b494d751b2144ffbbf10894ea64b29e8aed844bc8c66171783abfaf4e16" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1365" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon"> </figure>  Purists would say that such easy access devalues the sanctity of these remote high meadows, but it also means more people will be moved to treasure the experience, appreciate <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/natures-fragile-gift-to-nepal">the value of nature </a>so they can take steps to protect it.&nbsp; To be sure, the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/deadly-monsoon-in-nepal-turns-deadlier">monsoon season can be challenging for road travel</a>. The roads are rough even at the best of times, and in the monsoon they become muddy and treacherous, often blocked by<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/monsoon-deluge-in-nepal"> landslides</a>. But that could be precisely the kind of adventure that the more intrepid visitors crave. Improved road connectivity has already made Chaurikharka and places like Badimallika &nbsp;and other sacred lakes in the mountains of western Nepal popular with domestic tourists. What is driving this traffic is the urge to go to exotic new places and share videos and selfies on social media. Several of Nepal’s travel vloggers have visited Chaurikharka and popularised the place, enticing followers on TikTok or YouTube to retrace their footsteps. But even as they become more popular, these fragile and once-remote places should be protected from over-tourism.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110736_f97110b7cdc3e7f80d5877690948fc9f4c95a09c583deb23b07355491e6c5446.jpg" data-media-id="editor_8" data-image-id="20250731110736_f97110b7cdc3e7f80d5877690948fc9f4c95a09c583deb23b07355491e6c5446" data-rendition-name="original" width="1083" height="699" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon NT"> </figure>  <h2>INCREASING FOOTFALL</h2> Chaurikharka is located in Bhume Rural Municipality of East Rukum, near the scenic valley of Dhorpatan in Baglung district. Even in the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/monsoon-culture">middle of the monsoon</a>, there is a steady stream of Nepali hikers trooping to these high pastures – especially during festival days like Saune Sankranti which this year was on 17 July and actually marks the auspicious beginning of the monsoon here. “This year the rains have not been as heavy and there have been some clear mornings when we could see everything from Dhaulagiri to Machapuchre,” says Khageswar Bhandari, who trekked up here from the road. “The flowers, the greenery and the snowy mountain views make this an incredibly unique place.”&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250802130824_1b9e26f2e9853fdfe69154bb42a7c9ea6da4bf4940efc1da99b304dcfbd7d3d9.jpg" data-media-id="editor_10" data-image-id="20250802130824_1b9e26f2e9853fdfe69154bb42a7c9ea6da4bf4940efc1da99b304dcfbd7d3d9" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1152" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon"> </figure>  Chaurikharka is worthwhile to get to in any season, but it has a different charm during the monsoon. Word has spread and because it is now easy to get to from Baglung or even Pokhara, people have been flocking here.&nbsp; “Holidays and Saturdays see the largest crowds, with up to 500 visitors every day,” says ward chair Mankaji Pun of Bhume.&nbsp; There was a time not too long ago when local herders brought sheep, goats, cows, buffaloes, horses, and mules to graze here during the monsoon. Although there are still livestock around, animals have been replaced by visitors taking selfies. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-monsoon-and-nature-s-arithmetic">The monsoon, and nature’s arithmetic</a>, Tom Robertson Ward Chair Pun says infrastructure development is his main priority. A foot trail to Chaurikharka was built last year by the Tourism Division Office in Kohalpur, but access via the Raniwas-Koipa road section still remains challenging.&nbsp; “If we get more budget, we can improve the road and facilities to make Chaurikharka the main tourist attraction of this region,” says Bhume Municipality Chair Hom Prakash Shrestha. “After that, we hope to promote Chaurikharka as a top tourist spot.”&nbsp; Economic activity is also picking up with the arrival of visitors, but there seems to be a need to manage the makeshift sheds made of corrugated sheets that spoil the beauty of the place. Tea shops and lodges are also available but facilities are basic. Kuldeep Neupane took a three-day trip from Ghorahi in Dang to visit Chaurikharka recently, and says: “This is an ideal trip to make a quick getaway and let nature recharge your mind and body. And it is much more fun with a tent, to watch the sunrise over the Himalaya or the mist blowing in.”

Visit Nepal in the monsoon

Nepal is graduating to become a developing country on 24 November 2026 after half-century in the Least Developed Country (LDC) category. By 2030, the country hopes to transition to middle-income status.&nbsp; Everone from Prime Minister K P Oli have boasted that this is a matter of national pride, and will have a multiplier impact on trade and economy.&nbsp; But will it make any difference to the average Nepali? Not unless improved governance <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/why-invest-in-nepal">spurs investment and creates jobs</a>.&nbsp; Countries need to meet at least two of the three criteria in two consecutive triennial reviews to be eligible for graduation from LDC. Nepal has consistently met the thresholds for the Human Assets Index (HAI) and the Economic and Environmental Vulnerability Index (EVI) in 2015, 2018, and 2021. But Nepal was recommended for graduation before meeting the per capita <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/nepals-great-income-divide">Gross National Income (GNI)</a> threshold of $1,306. “A major implication of LDC graduation is the loss of preferential market access available through Generalised System of Preferences (GSP) and other arrangements,” explains economist Sameer Khatiwada. “But over two-thirds of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-doesnt-produce-its-2-biggest-export-items">Nepal’s exports</a> are to India, and the preferential market access to India is through a bilateral trade agreement. This has nothing to do with our LDC status.”  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250815060832_f5eabe7628a8cdf84f33b25d7cef3c4dc8913a26d8e5b253ea52a36e176b8a85.jpg" data-media-id="editor_3" data-image-id="20250815060832_f5eabe7628a8cdf84f33b25d7cef3c4dc8913a26d8e5b253ea52a36e176b8a85" data-rendition-name="original" width="640" height="470" loading="lazy" alt="LDC graduation "> </figure>  Furthermore, a provision under the South Asian Free Trade Area (SAFTA) allows Nepal to export to India duty-free if the items are at least 30% value-added. Nepali traders take advantage of this by re-exporting edible oils without meeting that requirement, falsely boosting Nepal’s exports.“ Following graduation from LDC, the value addition threshold might increase to 40%,” says Kalpana Khanal of the Policy Research Institute. “This is supposed to work to our advantage, because on paper value addition inherently means <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/multimedia/staying-home-to-create-jobs">job creation at home</a>.” But Nepal’s exports to other major destinations will face <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-and-the-us-india-tariff-tiff">tariff increases</a> with the graduation. A South Asia Watch on Trade, Economics and Environment (SWATEE) study shows that while tariff increase in the US market is relatively low (see page 5) it is considerably higher in Europe. The International Trade Centre (ITC) in a 2022 study also estimated that graduation could result in a 4.3% decline in Nepal’s projected exports, but this is excluding the impact of changes in ‘rules of origin’ provisions in preference-granting countries such as the UK and Europe.&nbsp; Nepal’s top export to these preference-granting countries is <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=1482">carpets</a>, and will not be impacted, but other items such as textiles and apparel will be heavily affected due to higher cost of production. The impact will felt mostly by small and medium enterprises which represent the largest share of exports to LDC-specific preference-granting countries. As for the service exports, Nepal never really made use of the World Trade Organization’s LDC services waiver anyway, hence the effect will be minimal, if any. There is also concern about Nepal’s graduation at a time when the global economy is topsy-turvy, amidst <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/turning-point-in-us-india-relations">tariff wars and conflicts</a>. This affects Nepalis abroad directly and may impact <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/more-remittance-more-than-remittance">remittances </a>which hit $11 billion in 2024. In comparison, Nepal only received $350 million in foreign loans and grants last year.&nbsp; Tourism arrivals have finally reached pre-pandemic levels, but bad publicity about pollution, poor infrastructure and bureaucratic hurdles hinder further growth. Manufacturing continues to struggle, while hydropower and the IT sector have taken off.&nbsp; “Look at data -- <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/tourism-needs-a-new-push">tourism arrivals</a> are up, spending is up, IT exports are up, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/why-nepal-needs-to-restore-ev-tax-subsidy">EV sales </a>are up, Europe still needs 85-90 million skilled workers. We are sitting on $16 billion in cash reserves, our balance of payment, foreign exchange reserve, tax to GDP ratio, credit flow are all positive, we have to build on these factors,” says Sujeev Shakya of the Nepal Economic Forum. He adds: “Our mindset creates negativity to promote rent-seeking behaviour, but this cynicism will go away after 2026 with LDC graduation. We must deal with data, look at trends, and projects which will bring in <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/from-the-nepali-press/why-there-is-no-foreign-investment-in-nepal">international investments</a>.” Khanal agrees that investment is not dependent on<a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/backside/Nepal-not-the-least-developed-country,306"> LDC status</a>. The factors that that affect investment are policy stability, a strong legal framework, market potential and ease of doing business. She adds, “That is where our focus needs to be, and we need to retain <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/diaspora-diaries/migrant-worker-returns-to-create-work-at-home?fbclid=IwAR09xJfsClCwn8uRVAmz28CU658vdKpuyDwB_b1sNlvKtAFFnSldnA0JS2g">Nepalis with jobs at home</a> for our sustained growth.” After 2026, financing support from donors and aid agencies could be affected and Nepal will no longer be able to access Least Developed Countries Fund (LDCF) to adapt to the impacts of climate change. But the Global Environment Fund and Green Climate Fund will still be available.“ LDC status does not determine bilateral development aid, that is usually driven by broader <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/looking-beyond-two-boulders">geopolitical considerations</a>,” says Sameer Khatiwada. “The World Bank and Asian Development Bank, which provide concessional loans to Nepal, it is determined mainly by per capita income, not LDC status.” &nbsp;However, Nepal may lose some concessional terms for loans. Nepal is currently a lower-middle-income country as per the World Bank in the bracket for GNI between $1,036 and $4,045. The country is already receiving more loans than grants and in July the World Bank increased its interest rate on loans by 100% from 0.75 to 1.5%. “All this means that the impact of LDC graduation for Nepal might not be as earth-shattering as some tend to think. Countries that have recently graduated, such as Botswana and the Maldives, have shows that graduation is just a step in a country’s development path,” says Khatiwada. Sujeev Shakya also sees the glass as half full, explaining that LDC graduation is just a stepping stone if Nepal has the right policies in place. He adds, “Nepal’s biggest advantage is our<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/investing-in-people"> working age population</a> and we have investments coming in. These aided by how adaptive we are as a society are the very foundations on which Nepal will grow.”

Not poor, but not rich

Two weeks ago, Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli announced jubilantly on social media that Nepal had achieved a historic annual growth of 81.8% in exports. He was right. Nepal’s trade did take a great leap forward compared to last year. But the dramatic rise was mainly due to processed soya bean oil.&nbsp; However, Nepal does not produce the edible oil it exports. In fact, the soya and palm oil that make up 44% of total exports are imported from Southeast Asia and South America, and simply re-exported, mostly to India.&nbsp; Under the SAFTA (South Asian Free Trade Area) Agreement, Nepal can export products to India duty-free if it has at least 30% value-added. Nepal’s traders have taken advantage of SAFTA even though the edible oils they export do not reach that value addition threshold. “The 30% value addition requirement is often only on paper,” says former commerce secretary Purushottam Ojha. “It is clear that simply packaging edible oils in Nepal does not fulfil the terms of the trade agreement.” Prime Minister Oli is aware of this, and even called Nepal’s export figures “fake” at an earlier event. The government is relying on other iffy figures to suggest that Nepal’s economy is strong and getting stronger. For example, the value of imports rose by 13.25% in 2024-25 compared to the previous fiscal year.&nbsp; Some of it was due to a jump in electric vehicle imports worth Rs 31.76 billion, but mostly it was because more wholesale soya oil was imported to be re-packaged and sold in India. The very fact that the government boasts about increased imports is an indication of how much it relies on taxing them for revenue. Touting such trade figures cannot be the basis to claim an economic rebound.&nbsp; “A jump in the value of imports can be interpreted as an increase in purchasing power, but it is not evidence of a stronger economy,” says economist Keshav Acharya. “Even though imports have increased, Nepal's domestic production and productive capacity have not improved.” Nepal Rastra Bank's semi-annual economic activity study report shows that industrial production was down in the first six months of the last fiscal year. This despite an increase in the number of new industries registered and investment commitments. Out of the Rs70.2 billion proposed foreign investment, Nepal received only Rs17.9 billion last year.&nbsp; Meanwhile, the rate of capital formation was limited to 24% last year, which is lower than the year before, suggesting that new investment, job creation and economic expansion all declined. If domestic production does not improve in relation to this year’s inflated trade figures, the outflow will put pressure on foreign exchange reserves like it did three years ago. At that time, Nepal borrowed from the IMF under its Extended Credit Facility Program to kickstart the economy.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025080710084_2cdaaa5795828c4a7de93a0604ba884ef0a8b8f24cccd939f6c24e279ab6058f.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="2025080710084_2cdaaa5795828c4a7de93a0604ba884ef0a8b8f24cccd939f6c24e279ab6058f" data-rendition-name="original" width="1633" height="723" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal's bubble economy NT"> <figcaption>Source: NEPAL RASTRA BANK</figcaption> </figure>  The macroeconomy is on firm footing with foreign exchange reserves at a comfortable Rs2,520 billion in May, up 23% from last year. This was largely due to remittances, and partly due to a falling NPR exchange rate. Real estate transactions and the stock market index have also been climbing as a result of government policies to revive the sector.&nbsp; However, former executive director of Nepal Rastra Bank Nar Bahadur Thapa cautions: “This is not organic growth, it is the result of deliberate policy decisions to relax rules on real estate and stock markets transactions.” In reality, the sharp rise in land prices have increased the cost of production, and excessive monetisation of the real estate has become the main source of Nepal’s economic woes. The central bank has announced a slew of new policies, shifting the terms of loan repayment for industrialists and entrepreneurs, reducing interest rates, and injecting more working capital — all designed to inject adrenaline into the real estate and stock market sectors.&nbsp; When he was governor, Mahaprasad Adhikari made several financial reforms during the latter half of his tenure to stimulate the economy, including tightening credit flow.&nbsp; By the last fiscal year, additional financial reforms had resulted in a credit expansion rate of around 8%. As the pace of credit expansion slows, real estate prices have started to fall. This is actually beneficial to the economy, because it lays the foundation for improvements in land-related entrepreneurship, production, and the construction sector. Just because real estate and the stock market transactions increase, it does not indicate an economic turnaround — especially when manufacturing and productive sector continues to languish.&nbsp; “It is foolish to believe that real estate and the stock market have magically revived our economy. Agriculture employs more than half of the population, but it is in decline. Investment in the productive sector has not increased, and job creation has not increased.” Two years ago, Nepal’s industrialists, business leaders, and political leadership predicted a recession amidst a sluggish business, declining market demand, large-scale job loss, and a shrinking real estate and share market.&nbsp; Still, the economy grew by 3.36% in fiscal year 2023/24. In fact, Nepal’s economy has grown nominally over the last two decades even when all sectors of the economy are in decline.&nbsp; Says Keshav Acharya: “The growth in trade, real estate, and the stock market are bubbles. The real economy remains stagnant.”

Nepal’s bubble economy

The final investigation report on the crash of a Saurya Airlines jet on 24 July 2024 at Kathmandu airport has revealed flaws in the carrier’s technical operation procedures, poor monitoring by the Civil Aviation Authority of Nepal (CAAN) and gaps in the airport’s emergency response. Eighteen people including a child were killed, and only the captain survived as the plane plunged seconds after takeoff, crashing within the airport perimeter. This was the latest in a series of aircraft accidents in previous years, and further tarnished Nepal’s already poor aviation safety record and contributed to the country being retained in the EU’s air safety list. &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; The circumstances in the Saurya crash were different from the Yeti Airlines crash in Pokhara in January 2022 that killed all 72 on board, and two Tara Air crashes in February 2016 and May 2022 on approach to Jomsom that together claimed 45 lives. However, all four tragedies were a result of negligence of carriers and crew, failure to follow procedures, regulatory slackness, and overconfidence. The Saurya crash, especially, was a glaring example of how an ailing airline broke its own rules to allow passengers, including non-employees, a joy ride to Pokhara on a maintenance ferry flight. CRASH REPORT The Final Investigation Report prepared by the Aircraft Accident Investigation Commission and released on the first anniversary of the crash last week carried a long list of rules that were ignored or broken, and of regulatory failure. The first mistake was to cram spares, tools and inflammable chemicals needed for the aircraft’s C-Check in Pokhara into the cargo hold flouting its own ground handling procedures.&nbsp; There was no check-in of passengers, some of whom were not even employees – even though regulations say only flight and maintenance crew should be on board a maintenance positioning flight. Many brought their own luggage into the plane and stored it unsecured in the cabin. There was no flight attendant to give a safety briefing to passengers. The load and trim charts given to the flight crew were rough estimates, and the total takeoff weight of the plane was 18,300kg plus or minus 200 kg. That would still have been all right, but there was a glaring mistake in the speedchart Saurya pilots were using to calculate the minimum takeoff speed (known as VR), and it had been wrong ever since the 21-year-old aircraft entered service with the airline in 2017. FAULTY DATA&nbsp; The Commission probed Flight Data Recorder inputs from previous takeoffs of the Canadian-built CRJ200-LR in 2023-2024 and found that the undetected error in the speedchart had caused the plane to pitch up at an abnormal rotation rate at least 18 times on previous takeoffs.&nbsp; Any rotation rate more than 3°/sec is regarded as unusual. But on at least two occasions, this aircraft with tail number 9N-AME had rotation rates of 5.8°/sec and 5.5°/sec, the second one was when the pilot who survived was flying in March 2024.&nbsp; On this particular day, the plane’s rotation rate was 6.5°/sec, causing it to go into a deep stall soon after takeoff, the Commission report said. Essentially, the plane was not flying fast enough down the runway to take off safely.&nbsp; It is not yet clear whether excess weight, unsecured luggage, wrong centre of gravity were also factors, but relying on a faulty speedchart for the given takeoff weight, the captain flying pulled back on the yoke before the plane had reached takeoff speed and at a pitch angle that was too steep. The investigation report says the plane then went into a deep stall and started banking right with the stick shaking. At this point, the flight officer on the right hand seat is heard on the cockpit voice recorder saying: “Whoa, whoa, whoa. Sir, Sir, Sir…” It then banked left before the pilot flying turned the plane sharply to the right again in an evasive action to avoid the parking aprons of the international and domestic terminals. Had he not done so, there would have been a disaster of a much greater magnitude at Kathmandu airport that day. The plane scraped the runway with its right wingtip, collided with a container having helicopter spare parts, and plunged into a gully east of the runway, exploding in a fireball. The investigation also noted that the impact forces seemed to be survivable for some occupants. The fire trucks took unnecessarily long to reach the site even though it was inside the airport perimeter. The absence of an ICAO-standard runway strip, inadequate rescue drills, lack of training, and a blocked emergency service gate leading to the crash site were cited as other factors. &nbsp;&nbsp; <h2>Timestamp of a Disaster</h2>  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110724_39cdd04693994ce6e55a5b302905c0fa4884fe85bed21ff0779bb1439f3a5725.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20250731110724_39cdd04693994ce6e55a5b302905c0fa4884fe85bed21ff0779bb1439f3a5725" data-rendition-name="original" width="778" height="826" loading="lazy" alt="Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy NT"> </figure>  11:10:34 - The Saurya Airlines CRJ200 on the takeoff roll from runway 02. It had a takeoff weight of about 18,300kg, but the pilot’s speedcard had a previously undetected mistake about the minimum takeoff speed. 11:10:55 -The plane with tail number 9N-AME goes into deep stall soon after takeoff because it does not have enough speed to lift its weight. The plane also has an abnormally steep nose-up attitude.&nbsp; 11:11:03 - Without enough speed to generate lift, the plane banks right, then left and right again in CCTV photos taken from the domestic apron (below). If it had not banked right, it could have hit the aprons and terminal buildings. Seen parked is Saurya’s other CRJ200 with tail number 9N-ANM.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110732_608132f7225c649125cca2691dd6a6bf930984c5b359e888d7ad9e5eacce3afd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20250731110732_608132f7225c649125cca2691dd6a6bf930984c5b359e888d7ad9e5eacce3afd" data-rendition-name="original" width="770" height="555" loading="lazy" alt="Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy NT"> </figure>  11:11:08 - The plane scrapes the runway with its right wingtip, and falls into the gully. The captain is thrown off the left side of the cockpit and survives. 11:11:15: Plane explodes in a fireball inside the airport perimeter. Firefighters take time to reach the site because of lack of access road and a blocked gate. Read the full investigation report <a href="https://www.tourism.gov.np/files/9N-AME%20AIC%20Final%20Report.pdf">here</a>.

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Not poor, but not rich

Nepal’s bubble economy

Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy