<figure><img width="1300" height="639" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110151120/636d08cd9c7e80680e0a603bjpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Tigers (left-female/right-male) photographed during the Chure study in the forests of Kapilvastu, Rupandehi, and Palpa</figcaption></figure>A new paper has reported fresh sightings of wild tigers in higher elevations in Nepal, showing that conservation efforts need to be stepped up outside their traditional habitat inside national parks. There have been multiple sightings of at least two tigers in the mountains of Rupandehi, Kapilvastu and Palpa, three districts that have never before seen the presence of the endangered big cats.“We have camera-trapped tigers in forests north and west of Butwal where they have never been seen before. They have been seen in the Chure Hills, outside of protected areas in the Tarai,” says Baburam Lamichhane of the Sauraha Biodiversity Conservation Centre. <img width="940" height="788" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110151120/636d08d09c7e80680e0a603cjpeg.jpg" alt=""><img width="940" height="788" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110151120/636d08d29c7e80680e0a603djpeg.jpg" alt="">The <a href="https://l.facebook.com/l.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fntnc.org.np%2Fpublication%2Freport-faunal-diversity-chure-region-nepal%3Ffbclid%3DIwAR0o2JxapHijSQKOQ5ga_J9iCkJXojLEFA7YbfBkRsox6s4YhTfD5FDLC44&amp;h=AT0tPbTVadXJG-JGMbqNltUqFCcBGE60u2bPXMoF7r4NBFlYb1IrFyN1clnW65l_4eOjIAIJXjlpfoDmJ0A1xk66C52iPibR5jrF05-wvae8SS7LBg29wyY9ZBwnWDqGFyo-7p3Z-s4" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">recently published</a> ‘Report on Faunal Diversity in Chure Region of Nepal’ identified a female tiger in multiple locations on the border of Rupandehi and Palpa. A male was spotted in northern Kapilvastu, about 40km west of the female.  Nepal's five Tarai national parks (Parsa and Chitwan in the east and Banke, Bardia and Shuklaphanta in the west) are considered the traditional habitats of the big cats in Nepal. Kapilvastu, Rupandehi and Palpa districts in Central Nepal are equidistant from Chitwan-Parsa in the east and Banke-Bardia in the west.  Individual tigers can be identified by signature stripes on their bodies, and researchers compared camera trap images of the newly discovered tigers with those previously spotted in Chitwan, Parsa, Banke, Bardia and Shuklaphanta during the censuses in 2009, 2014 and 2018, but there were no matches in the tiger data base. Nine months ago, a newly-identified female tiger was reported to have attacked a villager 25km away from the area where it was spotted. Since these two locations are connected via a forest corridor, conservationists speculate that it may be the same tiger.  Seven conservationists including Lamichhane and Naresh Subedi have tried to find out whether the recently detected male and female tigers have crossed paths and mated. They do not know for sure yet.  Another study carried out by NTNC and the Zoological Society of London (ZSL) spotted four tigers this year in a forest in Rautahat bordering Parsa National Park. Apart from these, the big cats have been seen roaming the Brahmadev-Laljhadi corridor of Kanchanpur district in the far-western plains. Another strip of forest in Kailali connecting Shuklaphanta and Bardia National Parks has also recorded tigers. The Kamdi Corridor, which connects Banke National Park with India’s Sohelwa Wildlife Sanctuary and facilitates the movement of wildlife between the two countries, is also home to abundant tigers. They have also started appearing in the hill forests north of Chitwan National Park. In the last census in 2018, Nepal counted 235 tigers in five national parks, becoming the first country to double the population of its big cats, from 121 in 2009. Chitwan National Park had the highest number of tigers at 93, followed by Bardia that registered 87 individuals and Banke 21. There were 18 more in Parsa and 16 in Shuklaphanta.  <img width="1000" height="566" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110151120/636d08d59c7e80680e0a603ejpeg.jpg" alt="">However, the census did not cover areas outside national parks, and the real total number of tigers could therefore be more. Nepal is an international model for tiger conservation but its successes in increasing the big cat population mean protected areas are getting crowded, in turn leading to a sharp decline in prey density. Tigers are now venturing outside of forests in search of food. Researchers have also cited other reasons for tigers venturing up the Himalaya: climate change and the success of Nepal’s community forestry efforts in the mountains.“Tigers do not leave their territory unless it must, so they are out looking for new habitats,” explains Haribhadra Acharya of the Department of National Parks and Wildlife Conservation (DNPWC). “While their sightings are proof of our conservation success, it also adds to the challenge. Contact with people outside parks has increased, which is worrying.”The good news is that recent studies have shown the possibility of linking the protected areas in eastern and western Tarai. An article published in the Journal of Animal Diversity recommends expanding conservation efforts outside national parts, and spreading it throughout the country.  In December 2020, Nepal recorded its highest ever tiger sighting at 3,165m in Ilam district. Last April, a Royal Bengal tiger was caught on a camera trap roaming the forested mountains of Dadeldhura at 2,500m. Given that this forest is connected to Shuklaphanta National Park in the Tarai, the tiger may have climbed to the higher elevation from the plains. <figure><img width="796" height="444" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110151120/636d08d99c7e80680e0a603fjpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Records of tigers in Chure during this study in relation to tiger distribution in Nepal based on National Study in 2018.</figcaption></figure><figure><img width="796" height="469" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110151120/636d08db9c7e80680e0a6040jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Close-up of the locations where tigers were camera-trapped in Kapilvastu and Rupandehi.</figcaption></figure>But the tiger found in Ilam is unlikely to have come from the Parsa-Rautahat forest in the eastern Tarai because it is too far, and the stretch in between has dense human habitation.  However, the forest in Ilam is connected with India’s Singhalila National Park, the Neura Valley National Park in Sikkim and protected areas of Bhutan – all of which have forest corridors and have also recently sighted tigers. This has led experts to speculate that the tiger in Ilam may have ventured in from Sikkim, or even Bhutan. Baburam Lamichhane of NTNC however says that the increased sightings should not be understood as habitat expansion: "We are seeing tigers in new places but it doesn’t mean they are permanently moving there. It does mean we have to protect their habitats.”  The sightings of tigers outside parks and in the mountains has also raised the need for cross-border cooperation in tiger and nature conservation.  Says Acharya of DNPWC: “These sightings do indicate tigers have chosen to be in the highlands because they like it there. Our priority now is to protect the habitats also outside national parks, ensure adequate water, and prey.” Translated by Sonia Awale from the <a href="https://www.himalkhabar.com/news/125220" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">original in Himal Khabar</a>.

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Tigers move up the Himalaya

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109141144/636baf459c7e80680e078040jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1050" height="610"/><figcaption>Konjuk Lama was named in numerous seizures of tiger parts in Nepal and India, and was finally caught in Kathmandu on 25 June. But like high profile smugglers caught in the past, he may be released soon by Nepal’s courts.</figcaption></figure>Despite being the first tiger range country to claim last year that it has met the target of doubling its big cat population, a new report shows that Nepal remains an important corridor for trafficking of tiger parts from South Asia to China.More worryingly, there is evidence that ringleaders of smuggling networks who have been caught in Nepal smuggling tiger skin, teeth and other organs to China have either used political connections to get light sentences, or have jumped nominal bail.On 25 June, Nepal’s Central Investigation Bureau (CIB) finally arrested in Kathmandu the notorious wildlife smuggler Kunjok Lama, who had been in the crosshairs of police in India and Nepal for two decades.His name was mentioned by traffickers arrested in every major seizure of tiger and other wildlife contraband in Nepal and India in recent years and investigation agencies in both countries as well as Interpol had been on the lookout for him.<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/wildlife-smuggler-caught-in-kathmandu-after-15-years/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/wildlife-smuggler-caught-in-kathmandu-after-15-years/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1596070388900000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFTmSggscMdXOjKyyPi8SBExPEtBw">One of the biggest hauls 15 years ago</a> in Rasuwa yielded five tiger pelts, 36 leopard skin and 113kg of tiger bones. The Nepal Army arrested five smugglers who were trying to take the contraband to the Chinese border concealed in a cargo truck, and handed them over to the Langtang National Park.The seizure made international headlines and was cited in The Handbook on Wildlife Enforcement in India as the most important haul of endangered species in South Asia. The accused were sentenced to seven years in jail and fined Rs100,000 each. All were released 2012 after completing their jail time. All five mentioned the name <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/wildlife-smuggler-caught-in-kathmandu-after-15-years/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/wildlife-smuggler-caught-in-kathmandu-after-15-years/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1596070388900000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFTmSggscMdXOjKyyPi8SBExPEtBw">Kunjok Lama</a> (aka Kunjok Tsering Tamang) as being the ringleader of the smuggling operation.Kunjok Lama’s name had also popped up in successive seizures in India of wildlife contraband in Ghaziabad near New Delhi in 1999, in Uttar Pradesh state in 2000 and in Madhya Pradesh in 2008. He was named by those caught as the main ringleader in smuggling operations, and India’s Central Investigation Bureau and Wildlife Investigation Bureau had named Kunjok Lama as being behind the smuggling of at least 600 tiger pelts over the years.He had since then been in the Interpol dragnet for the past 20 years until his arrest in Kathmandu last month.Originally from Namkha village of Nepal's Humla district, Kunjok Lama has now challenged the Rasuwa District Court’s decision to keep him in custody at the Patan High Court, saying he has been framed and should be freed. In his appeal, Lama says he is illiterate and could not have signed the confession documents, and that he is not the person implicated by traffickers caught in Rasuwa in 2005 — even though police have mobile records from those caught which link Lama directly to the smuggling operation.On 14 July, Judge Rajan Prasad Bhattarai of the Patan High Court wrote to the Rasuwa District Court asking for the files on the case. According to sources, the Patan High Court could call a hearing in the case within a day or two of the documents arriving, and decide whether Kunjok Lama should be kept in detention or not.“If he is released on bail, even if the court ultimately decides he is guilty, he will disappear,” predicts a police source in the CIB’s Wildlife Pillar in Kathmandu. “And unless he is put on a travel blacklist, he will go abroad just like other smugglers we have caught before.”Indeed, Lama has travelled extensively on ‘business’ in and out of Kathmandu even after he was implicated in the 2005 raid, and immigration records show he has been to the United States twice since then.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109141144/636baf489c7e80680e078041jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1936" height="2592"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>A 2018 <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-tigers-now-number-235/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-tigers-now-number-235/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1596070388900000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHwj-646nf-HWk2cS1o2E8sBGUQaQ">census in Nepal </a>showed that the country had 235 wild tigers in national parks, which is double the population in 2009. This made Nepal the first country among tiger range countries that had given themselves the target of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/how-many-tigers-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/how-many-tigers-in-nepal/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1596070388900000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFqr5HwzSGOpRu3NmEj40REFMszGw">doubling the number of tigers by 2022.</a>Nepal has one of the strictest laws on smuggling of endangered animals like tigers, rhinos, leopards, pangolins, or wild elephants among South Asian countries, with up to 15 years jail terms and/or up to Rs1 million fines for those found guilty. However, court records show that no one has ever received this maximum sentence even after being caught for major smuggling operations like the one in 2005. The perpetrators have either used legal loopholes to be released, or have received the minimum sentences.Conservationists say political patronage, corruption in the judiciary and poor prosecution are the reasons why the provisions for hefty penalties for wildlife smugglers have never been implemented, and why many end up free to resume their smuggling activities.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109141144/636baf4b9c7e80680e078042jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1050" height="585"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Another high profile smuggler who has escaped prosecution is Lodu Dime (pronoucned ‘dee-may’), who was arrested in 2012 after a cargo truck driving from Kathmandu to the Chinese border in Rasuwa was apprehended. Hidden behind sacks of rice were five tiger pelts and six large sacks with 512 pieces of tiger bones, skulls and claws and 122 fangs. Conservationists calculated that the contraband must have come from at least 31 dead tigers.The driver and truck owners were arrested, and they named Lodu Dime of Boudha in Kathmandu as the person who hired their truck for Rs100,000 to take the rice to Rasuwa. Police raided Dime’s house and confiscated a large haul of wildlife contraband, eight passports and Rs4 million, as well as Indian, Chinese, Bangladeshi and Indonesian currency.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109141144/636baf4e9c7e80680e078043jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="486"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Lodu Dime fled, but returned to get himself cleared by the courts after paying a nominal Rs100,000 fine, and his wife who had been arrested was also freed. However, the Appeals Court sentenced him in absentia to five years in prison. Despite this, records show that Dime kept travelling freely back and forth between India and Nepal.With help from Interpol, Dime was finally caught in New Delhi in 2017 after the Indian CIB found he was  involved in poaching tigers in Madhya Pradesh. He was extradited to Nepal in 2018 and sent to the District Jail in Nuwakot to serve his five year sentence. But Dime appealed at the Supreme Court where the bench of Justices Mira Khadka and Dambar Bahadur Shahi decided to release him on only Rs45,000 bail. Dime then disappeared.“The bail amount was negligible compared to the cash value of the contraband, the court never put a travel ban on him, and after jumping bail he was back to his smuggling activities,” a Nepali CIB official involved in the investigation told Nepali Times.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109141144/636baf519c7e80680e078044jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="726" height="680"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Police have now uncovered links between Lodu Dime and Kunjok Lama, and found that they sometimes worked together to make Nepal a collection point for wildlife smuggled from India, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka to be transported to China through Kodari, and later Rasuwa checkpoints.In the past five years alone Nepal’s CIB has caught red handed 73 tiger smugglers in 31 raids. Among them are nine Indians and two  Chinese. Just in the past five years, the seizures have included 28 tiger pelts and 139kg of tiger bones. Although many of the tigers were probably poached in India, two tigers were found to have been killed in Nepal, one was poisoned and other electrocuted.The nine Indians arrested in Nepal are from the Babriya forest-dwelling community in India who have skills in wildlife tracking. One of them was Ramjas Banjara, who served as the link between poachers in India and smugglers in Nepal who trafficked the wildlife parts to China.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109141144/636baf539c7e80680e078045jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1050" height="456"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Banjara was caught in Bardia with one tiger pelt and 15kg of tiger bones, and was handed the minimum sentence by law of five years in jail by Nepalganj Court, and was released in April after serving his term.“Notorious smugglers get only the minimum five years in jail, and a whole lot of Indian smugglers in Nepal’s jails who are part of the smuggling network are now in line to be released,” says Police Sub-Inspector Birendra Johari, who have been involved in numerous sting operations against wildlife smugglers.Of the six other Indian smugglers caught in a CIB sting operation in Kailali in 2015 that seized two tiger pelts and 40kg of bones, five were released on bail after paying Rs100,000 each and immediately escaped to India. This was the first time that so many Indian smugglers had been caught in one operation in Nepal, confirming the involvement of Indian poachers in Nepal.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109141144/636baf559c7e80680e078046jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2000" height="1494"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>The Babriya also knew how to kill tigers without a gun which ends up damaging the pelt with bullet holes, and reduces its sale value. Since every part of a tiger can be sold in China and Vietnam, there is hardly any evidence if a tiger has been poached. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/7-musk-deer-killed-by-poachers-during-lockdown/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/7-musk-deer-killed-by-poachers-during-lockdown/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1596070388900000&amp;usg=AFQjCNH2JXpDHOaKpU23YzeciJONKmU18A">Wildlife smuggling has increased</a> during the COVID-19 lockdown.A report by the <a href="https://www.unodc.org/documents/data-and-analysis/wildlife/2020/World_Wildlife_Report_2020_9July.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.unodc.org/documents/data-and-analysis/wildlife/2020/World_Wildlife_Report_2020_9July.pdf&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1596070388900000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHHOfQN9EhwKrHJu8JMc3d-VxfmtQ">UN’s World Wildlife Crime Report 2020</a> says that there has been a marked increase in the poaching of tigers between 2007 and 2018, mainly in India and Thailand. But it notes that smuggling is also rife in Nepal, Bangladesh and Bhutan.‘All parts of the tiger are traded and used for traditional (Chinese) medicine, but the bones are generally most sought after,’ the report says. ‘Consumer demand has shifted in recent years with tiger product buyers purchasing these goods as a sign of wealth rather than for their health. The most popular bone-based products appear to be tiger wine and tiger glue/paste. The trade has shifted to online sales through social media and messaging apps.’<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109141144/636baf599c7e80680e078047jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1050" height="581"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>The trafficking in protected species report by the Vienna-based UN Office of Drugs and Crime investigated 600 incidents of tiger smuggling and found that parts of South Asia have become hotpots of tiger poaching and smuggling — especially using Nepal as a transit point to China. The Handbook On Wildlife Enforcement in India also cites Nepal as a main corridor to China for smuggling of tigers killed by poachers in India. (See map)The report also notes that besides the threat to biodiversity and national security from criminalisation, there are also serious health implications of illicit wildlife trade:  ‘The illegal trade in wildlife, which by definition does not go through proper sanitary and phytosanitary controls, can potentially lead to the spread of zoonoses, such as SARS-CoV-2 that caused the COVID-19 pandemic.’The reputation of the court system in Nepal which was already under scrutiny for corruption, has been tarnished even more this month by the Supreme Court Chief Justice and another judge freeing a senior police officer sentenced to life imprisonment for brutally murdering his wife and burning her remains.There has also been intense media spotlight on another bench of the Supreme Court which this month released on bail a member of a prestigious family who had killed a woman while driving under the influence of alcohol last year.<a href="https://www.unodc.org/documents/data-and-analysis/wildlife/2020/World_Wildlife_Report_2020_9July.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.unodc.org/documents/data-and-analysis/wildlife/2020/World_Wildlife_Report_2020_9July.pdf&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1596070388900000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHHOfQN9EhwKrHJu8JMc3d-VxfmtQ">World Wildlife Crime Report</a>Trafficking in protected species 2020UNODC, World Wildlife Crime Report 2020, United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, Vienna<a href="http://www.unodc.org/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://www.unodc.org&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1596070388900000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHVQlpoBfUNOR5IU9lRB9-aPPs9UA">www.unodc.org</a>134 pages<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109141144/636baf5b9c7e80680e078048jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="798" height="1132">

Lax laws make Nepal haven for tiger poachers

India and Pakistan are twins separated at birth. Tensions between them have been at a hair trigger ever since independence and has erupted into full scale conflict at least four times in the past 80 years.
The 22 April terrorist attack in Kashmir that killed 25 Indian tourists and a Nepali citizen, threatens to escalate tension between the two nuclear-armed nations. India has squarely blamed Pakistan for the attacks, and Prime Minister Narendra Modi has given his military “operational freedom” to respond. Pakistan has said it has credible intelligence of an Indian military strike and its officials have promised a “full spectrum” response — a code for a <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/thinking-the-thinkable">nuclear retaliation</a>.
For Nepal, the killing of its national in the Pahalgam attack comes as another stark reminder that in conflicts from Afghanistan to Iraq, from <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/how-to-agree-an-armistice-in-ukraine">Ukraine</a> to Israel, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/10-nepalis-from-one-town-fighting-in-ukraine">Nepalis are getting caught in the crossfire</a>. The last time full-scale fighting broke out between <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/peacemongers-at-india-pakistan-border">India and Pakistan</a> on Kargil in 1999, at least 22<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/india-s-trial-by-fire-for-soldiers-from-nepal?%27%5C%22="> Nepalis fighting for the Indian Army</a> were killed in action.
Three of Nepal’s immediate neighbours (China, India, Pakistan) have nuclear weapons, and they do not have good relations. With China supplying weapons, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/war-and-warming">missile technology</a> and other support to Pakistan, this triangular friction could set off a regional conflagration.&nbsp;
<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-022-00573-0" target="_blank">Research at Rutgers University</a> has calculated that even a week-long tactical nuclear exchange between India and Pakistan would throw up so much smoke and debris into the atmosphere that it would block out the sun for years, and lead to a collapse of the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/grow-nourish-sustain-together-world-food-day">global food system</a>. This does not take into account the radioactive fallout that prevailing winds would blow up to <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/lives-on-the-line-in-the-himalaya">the Himalaya</a>, contaminating glaciers that are the sources of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/saving-what-is-left-of-himalayan-rivers">Asia’s main rivers</a>.
The impact of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/climate-breakdown-linked-to-thame-flood">climate breakdown </a>on High Asia was already ringing alarm bells about its <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/himalayan-icecap-melting-faster-than-thought">shrinking ice cap</a> reducing the dry season flow of water downstream. Water was going to be the next strategic commodity, geopolitical experts warned, and the next wars in Asia would be over water.
That water war is already happening. India retaliated to the Kashmir attack by suspending the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/24/world/asia/india-pakistan-indus-waters-treaty.html" target="_blank">Indus Waters Treaty</a> of 1960 mediated by the World Bank that has withstood at least three wars between India and Pakistan. The treaty gives India control over the three eastern tributaries of the Indus (<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beas_River" target="_blank">Beas</a>, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ravi_River" target="_blank">Ravi</a> and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sutlej" target="_blank">Sutlej</a>), while Pakistan got water from the Indus and two of its western tributaries (<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indus_River" target="_blank">Indus</a>, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chenab_River" target="_blank">Chenab</a> and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jhelum_River" target="_blank">Jhelum</a>.
Pakistan was assured of 70% of the annual flow, and India could use a reasonable amount of water for<a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=15231"> irrigation and hydropower</a>. &nbsp;Within days of its threat, India stopped water flowing down to Pakistan from the Chenab river and is reportedly preparing to do the same on the Jhelum.
The sabre-rattling has reached a crescendo. Besides threats and counter-threats there are also symbolic drills, with the Indian Air Force practicing landing on an expressway in Uttar Pradesh by its Rafale, Su-30 and Jaguar fighter jets to demonstrate ‘operational readiness’. In response Pakistan test-fired its Abdali ballistic missile that can carry a nuclear warhead and has a range of 450km.&nbsp;
The danger is that with ultra-nationalist rhetoric and the beating the war drums by both sides, India’s government and Pakistan’s military may have to ‘do something’ to appease domestic public opinion. But any tactical strike, an artillery exchange, or territorial incursion could quickly escalate out of control.
Expecting an Indian retaliation for the Pahalgam killings, Pakistan is using<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/interfaith-collaboration-for-nuclear-disarmament"> nuclear deterrence </a>and warning of “catastrophic consequences”. The two neighbours came close to a nuclear exchange in 2019 after an attack on the Indian military in Kashmir, and prompt international intervention led by the United States cooled tensions.&nbsp;
This time, the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/trump-shock-wave-hits-nepal">Trump administration</a> is too distracted and not as engaged. Pakistan has denied it was responsible for the terrorist attack and called on Washington to stop a possible Indian retaliation. India and Pakistan have stopped overflights by each other’s airlines, and some international carriers have even stopped flying over Pakistan fearing an air war.
Washington, Beijing, the UN and the EU have all urged restraint. Iran, which has good relations with both India and Pakistan has sent its foreign minister to urge both countries not to go into a tit-for-tat war. Iran has its own nuclear flashpoint to worry about with tensions in Israel, &nbsp;Yemen and Syria.
India and Pakistan both share similar problems of joblessness, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/why-nepal-s-poverty-rate-is-stuck">poverty </a>and <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/climate-change-new-threat-to-nepal-s-rhinos">environmental threats</a>. Neither side needs the threat of a senseless war, and we in the neighbourhood do not need it either.&nbsp;
Kunda Dixit
This Editorial is brought to you by <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/" target="_blank">Nepali Times</a>, in collaboration with <a href="https://inpsjapan.com/en/" target="_blank">INPS Japan</a> and <a href="https://sgi-peace.org/" target="_blank">Soka Gakkai International</a>, in consultative status with UN ECOSOC.

Nukes in the neighbourhood

The streets of Patan are alive this month with lavender jacaranda trees under rain-washed skies as <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/the-red-god-rises-again-in-patan">the chariot of Rato Matsyendranath</a> is pulled across town. This is the festival of the rain god, and inevitably the heavens opened up and pre-monsoon showers pelted the chariot as it started being pulled in Pulchok last week. Thousands of devotees, onlookers and the chariot procession organisers thronged the streets on the first day last week. The rhythmic cymbals and drums exuded a vibrant energy as the enormous four wheels turned and the chariot lurched.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025051007050_81df97744db16f732a419dc1f1579d235ce3df37642b078f50b83bd4bd026688.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="2025051007050_81df97744db16f732a419dc1f1579d235ce3df37642b078f50b83bd4bd026688" data-rendition-name="original" width="1000" height="1503" loading="lazy" alt="Divine chariot"> </figure>  The<a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/Red-rain-god,3141"> red rain god</a> has Hindu and Buddhist antecedents, alternatively called Bungadya and<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/kathmandu-s-gravity-defying-chariot-festival"> Karunamaya</a> — reflecting Kathmandu Valley’s syncretic mixture of the two religions.&nbsp; “Bungadya is a profoundly <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/12-full-opinion/marketing-the-intangible">intangible form of heritage</a>,” explains heritage expert Monalisa Maharjan. “It embodies traditional knowledge,<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/multimedia/reviving-nepal-s-craft"> artisanal skills passed down through generations</a>. Local communities and specific families have specified roles in being custodians of the heritage, ensuring their survival over the centuries.” There are many legends and stories about this annual tradition. Lichhavi king Narendra Dev is supposed to have brought Rato Matsyendranath from Assam to Kathmandu Valley to convince Guru Gorakhnath to lift a spell that created a two-year drought in Kathmandu.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250510050520_347a9a398f8a9abc4a7fb4e2774fde8264cccbdce8bdab23851ab3f0e73c3e8a.jpg" data-media-id="editor_6" data-image-id="20250510050520_347a9a398f8a9abc4a7fb4e2774fde8264cccbdce8bdab23851ab3f0e73c3e8a" data-rendition-name="original" width="1503" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Divine chariot"> </figure>  Matsyendranath was Gorakhnath’s mentor, and upon seeing him, the serpents were released, unleashing the rains. The chariot festival honours the return of this life-giving rain. The deity is seen as an icon for thriving agriculture, t<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/before-the-next-monsoon">he arrival of monsoon</a> showers, and the welfare of the community. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/the-reign-of-the-god-of-rain">The reign of the god of rain</a>, Vidhu Prakash Kayastha Till this day, the Rato Matsyendranath festival is no ordinary celebration. Patan does not sleep for a month as the chariot is pulled through various neighbourhoods. It unfolds at a state level with the president (formerly the king) attending the climax of the Bhoto Jatra in Jawalakhel later this month.&nbsp; The intergenerational transmission of tradition is unique in the world, and the reason the festival is one of the most vibrant cultural expressions that thrives despite inroads of modernity. The other unique aspect is that it is a transnational festival, binding Patan with Guwahati in the Indian state of Assam.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025051005058_8bc685ada13045d863b28e3eed91c931da2b510714586af6fd7eb5d1e298a24a.jpg" data-media-id="editor_9" data-image-id="2025051005058_8bc685ada13045d863b28e3eed91c931da2b510714586af6fd7eb5d1e298a24a" data-rendition-name="original" width="1000" height="1503" loading="lazy" alt="Divine chariot"> </figure>  “Unlike Nepal, where the deity commands grandeur and devotion, many in Assam are unaware of Rato Matsyendranath,” says Khagen Sharma of Gauhati University, which convened <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-assam-connection-revived">a symposium in February in Guwahati on the rain god</a>. Attending was a delegation led by Lalitpur Mayor Chiribabu Maharjan, organisers of the festival, and builders of the chariot. After the symposium, a committee was formed to explore and revive the tradition in Assam as well. Although the team had planned to visit Nepal this month, logistical challenges delayed the trip. Still, there are plans to build a Guru Matsyendranath statue in Assam to reestablish regular worship practices in the Guwahati shrine.&nbsp; The vines used to build the chariot in Patan are sourced from the jungles of Assam. But Sharma notes that in recent years unclear regulations have blocked the official import of the vines, although they are still brought to Nepal informally. The <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/makers-of-machhindranath,2204">chariot making</a> has also had a taste of modernisation in recent times. In the past, even a single nail or piece of steel was avoided. But over time, the wooden structure, particularly the shaft between the wheels, has been replaced with bronze. When that too proved unstable, metal clamps were introduced, which have become a pragmatic compromise.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250510050524_b2a819a5791612f14c81d30fc393dbd3f99f0c64b90a9110e8b0855d944bfa93.jpg" data-media-id="editor_12" data-image-id="20250510050524_b2a819a5791612f14c81d30fc393dbd3f99f0c64b90a9110e8b0855d944bfa93" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="998" loading="lazy" alt="Divine chariot"> </figure>  Another welcome change is the focus on safety. Builders climbing the chariot’s tower now wear harnesses and there are efforts in crowd control. The most visible change in recent years has been the involvement of Patan’s enthusiastic youth in the festival — the tradition is now passing to a new generation. Says Matsyendranath expert Vidhu Kayastha: “There is more energy, the young people in red t-shirts this year were very organised, these modern touches aren’t diluting our culture, they’re keeping it alive in new forms.” He adds, “We are <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/searching-for-a-homeland-away-from-home">reconnecting with our roots</a>, we have more resources, more awareness than ever before. We must not be swept away by western values that may not serve us, and in some ways, cause more harm than good. We must revive our own culture.”&nbsp;

Divine chariot

The discourse around <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/nepal-s-corruption-carousel">corruption in Nepal</a> is mainly about politicians and bureaucrats accepting bribes and kickbacks. The private sector usually does not get as much blame.
But the prevalent <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-s-crony-communism-exposed">climate of cronyism</a> in Nepal means that the politicians and businesses are often hand in glove. The private sector is generally considered to be in favour of free market competition to encourage <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-has-to-curb-corruption-before-wooing-investors">investment</a> and innovation so that wealth is generated.
But insider trading, cartelling, and conflict of interest have become a given in Nepal’s private sector, and it all happens with the blessings of the government. In fact, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/the-business-of-politics-in-nepal">tycoons have become legislators and politicians have become businessmen</a>.
“Such collusion kills the free market, and does not allow entrepreneurship and innovation to flourish,” says Kush Kumar Joshi, former president of the Federation of Nepal Chamber of Commerce and Industries (FNCCI).
An example of this is the Dangote Group of Nigeria, which was planning for a cement factory in Nepal. A Dangote executive told us that Nepal’s cement cartel got the government to sabotage their plans.&nbsp;
Earlier, the same cartel tried to do the same thing to the Chinese companies Hongxi and Huaxin, arguing that Nepal’s cement industry was capable of meeting domestic demand and did not require foreign investment. Ultimately, Hongxi partnered with Nepal’s Shivam and Huaxin with former FNCCI president Suraj Vaidya.
In 2019, industrialists successfully lobbied lawmakers to prevent foreign investment in agriculture by amending the Foreign Investment and Technology Transfer Act. Two years later,<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/aid-rarely-aids-agriculture-in-nepal"> foreign investment in agriculture</a> was opened, but only if 75% of the products were exported.
There is a long history of local lobbyists obstructing the entry of multinationals, like J Walter Thompson advertising agency and the international shipping company Maersk. Microbreweries, which can be operated by restaurants, have been prohibited at the behest of larger beer companies. The <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=1292">private dairy sector </a>opposed the government-owned Dairy Development Corporation when it tried to begin production in Pokhara a decade ago.
“The<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/business-as-unusual?fbclid=IwAR3qEnUrVu9pRhZU669FR1F4zF95uPJKBpbQbq-q1Bm26p7OMVw-8JBP7FU"> business sector</a> is a reflection of Nepali society and government which do not care about <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=6725">ethical business practices</a>,” says former CNI president Hari Bhakta Sharma. “The environment is not conducive to the few businessmen who are honest.”
Lobbying by businesses is not unusual in a democracy, but its basic character should be for the collective good, not individual greed.
“This kind of profit-over-everything mindset is fatal for businesses. Entrepreneurs must prioritise social, worker, and customer welfare,” adds Sharma.
Industrialists have actively lobbied for the removal of policies that prevent loan misuse and require bank loans in specific areas. They have partially reversed such directives.
Until the economic slowdown, Nepal’s fastest growing industry was construction. But even there, cement and steel rod manufacturers colluded by price-fixing. Banker Parshuram Kunwar Chhetri says Nepal’s corporates just do not believe in free market principles, adding: “Their ideas go against competition benefiting consumers. It is all about price fixing, cartels and monopolies.”
Read also:<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/poor-cash-rich-nepal"> Poor cash-rich Nepal</a>, Sonia Awale
Ideologically, Nepal’s Communist parties are supposed to be against the neoliberal free market, globalisation and the ‘imperialism’ of international financial institutions like the World Bank and the IMF. But cronyism is rife there, too.
Two years ago, the FNCCI and the Confederation of Nepalese Industries (CNI) accused the IMF of interfering in Nepal's domestic economic policy after the Fund demanded economic reforms as conditions for its Extended Credit Facility.
Says economic analyst Sujeev Shakya: “How can we expect an honest and ethical business sector when we as a society tend to laud those who earn money through illicit and corrupt means rather than lament their <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/Editorial-moral,667">moral bankruptcy</a>?”
In October 2012, the Chaudhary Group’s CG Electronics warehouse in Kathmandu caught fire. A surveyor certified that the company had suffered Rs580 million damage, which was paid out by United Insurance Company.
The Commission for the Investigation of Abuse of Authority (CIAA) directed the Nepal Insurance Authority to investigate suspected insurance fraud, and found that the fire damage was actually Rs340 million.
The Patan High Court ordered Chaudhary Group to return the excess amount, a decision the company challenged in the Supreme Court. But in March, the apex court also found the Chaudhary Group guilty of insurance fraud.
Chaudhary Group's Binod Chaudhary, Nepal's only known dollar billionaire, is a Nepali Congress central committee member and MP, former president of FNCCI and founder of the CNI.
Then last February, the Central Investigation Bureau questioned Binod Chaudhary and arrested his brother Arun Chaudhary of CG Holdings over their alleged involvement in the illegal acquisition of the state-run shoe factory, following an investigative report by Ukaalo Online.
In 2021, Chaudhary and his family’s offshore business dealings landed them <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-s-richest-man-in-the-pandora-papers">in the Pandora Papers list</a> by the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists (ICIJ) for hidden assets in Panama.
Says Krishna Khanal, assistant professor of business ethics at King’s College: “Cronyism, political collusion, and anti-competitive cartelling are routine in the private sector. There is no other objective than to make money at any cost.”
Conflict of interest is rife in Nepal’s share market. In 2023, Ghorahi Cement owned by Triveni Group issued primary shares at a premium price. There is also evidence that a river was diverted for the construction of its business tycoon Upendra Mahato’s Mediciti Hospital. Bhatbhateni owner Min Bahadur Gurung is also involved in Lalita Niwas land grab scam in Baluwatar.
Meanwhile, Shankar Group Vice President Sulabh Agrawal, former honorary consul of Kyrgyzstan, was arrested by the police during the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-s-uneven-covid-19-deaths">Covid-19 pandemic </a>after he was found selling 67 infrared thermometers from a vehicle with diplomatic credentials. He was later acquitted by the court for price-gouging.
Nepal’s most influential corporates were accused of evading billions in VAT by forcing invoices. Freedom Forum invoked the Right to Information to collect evidence of the involvement of CG Foods, Him Electronics of Shekhar Golchha, Morang Auto Works of Bishnu Agarwal, Sulabh Agarwal’s Jagdamba Steels, United Builders of Shakuntalal Hirachan, United Traders of Anuj Agarwal, and Min Bahadur Gurung’s Bhatbhateni Supermarket.
Most of these businessmen have held leadership positions in the FNCCI. Former FNCCI presidents Shekhar Golchha, Pashupati Murarka and Pradeep Jung Pandey, along with members of the federation's governing council Birendra Kumar Shanghai, Shashikant Agrawal, and others all have unpaid dues of Rs22 billion to Nepal Electricity Authority.&nbsp;
Former FNCCI president Chandiraj Dhakal was blacklisted by the Credit Information Bureau Nepal for non-payment of bank loans.
He had previously obtained permission to use 36 hectares of government forest land in Chandragiri for 40 years without competition, and had received an exemption to build a ropeway there. The 54th report of the Auditor General, stating that Nepal had suffered as a result of these decisions, had suggested that the state be investigated for leasing land at low rates allowing large revenue exemptions.
Another ex-FNCCI president Pradeep Jung Pandey was sentenced to prison in 2014 following a corruption case spanning three decades. Former FNCCI treasurer Gyanendra Lal Pradhan is currently facing charges of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/black-white-and-grey">money laundering </a>through insider trading.&nbsp;
Former FNCCI president Pashupati Murarka was acquitted by the special court in a corruption case, but it is still pending in the Supreme Court. His cement company was found to have exploited the environment by over-mining limestone at various times.&nbsp;
His Siddhartha Minerals was also found to have encroached forests in Palpa, following which the District Forest Office registered a criminal case against him and co-investor Manoj Kedia. Arrest warrants were issued for six people, including Murarka and Kedia, but Muraka was released on bail, while Kedia is on the run.
Current FNCCI president Chandra Prasad Dhakal during his tenure as a member of the Securities Board of Nepal (SEBON) was accused of conflict of interest in being a regulator in the sale of shares in a company that his family had invested in.&nbsp;
Dhakal is the chair of the IME Group, which owns banks, insurance, remittance companies, several cable cars and hotels, and has been embroiled in numerous ropeway-related controversies — most recently for allegedly using political connections to suppress local opposition to a<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/progress-and-or-preservation"> cable car project in Pathibhara</a>.
Another example of fraud committed in collusion with political leadership is Himalayan Reinsurance, the investors of which include prominent businessmen who have led FNCCI and CNI in the past, including Shekhar Golchha, Pashupati Murarka, Bhawani Rana, Rajesh Kumar Agrawa, Rohit Gupta, Amit Mor, Satish Mor, Shashikant Agrawal, and Sulabh Agrawal.
During <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/lessons-not-learned-from-the-pandemic">the Covid-19 pandemic</a>, the Nepal Insurance Authority requested approval for a reinsurance company through an emergency notice, even though such a government-operated company already existed. But Himalayan Re-insurance was granted permission without any explanation as to why another reinsurance company was needed, or how it was selected out of the five companies that submitted proposals.
It was found that the Securities Registration and Issue Regulation was amended to allow this company to issue shares at a premium price, allowing the shares priced at Rs100 to be sold for Rs206. Himalayan Re-insurance raised Rs6 billion. The Companies Act stipulates that primary shares can be issued at a premium price only after three years of operation, a criteria Himalayan Re-insurance did not fulfil.
Open competition, consumer protection, worker welfare, environmental consciousness, anti-corruption, and tax responsibility are the foundations of a country’s healthy business world. But most captains of Nepal’s industry themselves do not uphold those principles.
The business community here is instead actively engaged in lobbying and colluding with the political leadership, and forcing the appointment of their candidates to lead various regulatory bodies.&nbsp;
“While the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/multimedia/reviving-nepal-s-craft">new generation of entrepreneurs</a> operating in sectors linked to external markets such as IT seem sensitive to and compliant with professional codes, ethics, professionalism, and honesty are sorely lacking in Nepal’s business sector in general,” says Rameshore Khanal, former Secretary of the Ministry of Finance.
He adds: “Even those following ethical practices have been forced to seek political favours for fear of being left behind. There will thus be<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/it-does-not-pay-to-have-integrity"> no integrity in the private sector </a>until there is honesty in politics.”
Following the publication of this report in Himalkhabar, a Supreme Court judge on the condition of anonymity said: “Businessmen do not adhere to the principles of judicial independence, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/federalism-rule-of-law-and-the-judiciary">rule of law </a>and <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/government-to-governance-editorial,4200">good governance</a>. They use intermediaries and political connections to approach judges and win cases. Meanwhile, nobody raises these issues in public.” &nbsp;

Nepal's only growth industry: private sector corruption

In 2025, two seemingly disconnected acts of violence shattered the illusion of stability in the region. In March, <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/16f7f947-1e96-4206-9844-891378adc683" target="_blank">militants hijacked a passenger train</a> near the Bolan Pass in Balochistan, executing soldiers in cold blood. A month later, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/22/world/asia/kashmir-terrorist-attack.html" target="_blank">gunmen in Kashmir’s</a> Pahalgam Valley massacred tourists. 
In both Islamabad and New Delhi, <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/4/25/were-cursed-kashmiris-under-attack-across-india-after-pahalgam-killings" target="_blank">the reaction was reflexive:</a> condemn the violence, <a href="https://www.economist.com/asia/2025/04/22/india-and-pakistan-could-come-to-blows-over-kashmir" target="_blank">blame external enemies</a>, declare the situation contained. But South Asia’s leaders are not fighting terrorists alone. They are fighting the consequences of their own betrayals.
Across <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-26272897" target="_blank">Balochistan</a>, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-south-asia-11693674" target="_blank">Kashmir</a>, <a href="https://www.crisisgroup.org/asia/south-asia/india/346-finding-way-out-festering-conflict-indias-manipur" target="_blank">Manipur</a>, and beyond, decades of <a href="https://www.amnesty.org/en/projects/enforced-disappearance-in-south-asia/" target="_blank">enforced disappearances</a>, broken promises, and brute militarisation have hollowed out the social contracts meant to hold these nations together. The grievances that drove rebellions from the 1940s through the 1990s – demands for dignity, recognition, and political agency – were never meaningfully addressed. They were buried beneath asphalt and propaganda, paved over by development projects and security checkpoints.
States may claim victory. But their victories are mirages, dissolving the moment anyone looks too closely. South Asia’s unfinished wars are not relics of a violent past. They are live ammunition, loaded into the future.
<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/mar/24/he-only-wanted-revenge-the-bloody-insurgency-in-balochistan-gaining-lethal-momentum" target="_blank">Balochistan</a> has been at war with Pakistan for most of its modern history. Rich in gas, minerals, and coastline, the province has been plundered for decades under the language of national development. 
Projects like the <a href="https://eastasiaforum.org/2020/11/26/pakistans-three-evils-cpec-and-good-governance/" target="_blank">China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)</a> promise progress but deliver exclusion: minerals are mined, ports are secured, but Baloch homes are raided. 
The insurgency endures not because of foreign conspiracies, as Islamabad endlessly insists, but because the Pakistani state remains incapable of seeing its <a href="https://thebalochistanpost.net/2025/01/enforced-disappearances-in-balochistan-in-december-2024-tbp-report/" target="_blank">Baloch citizens</a> as anything other than a security problem to be managed.
In <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/ranisingh/2016/07/12/kashmir-in-the-worlds-most-militarized-zone-violence-after-years-of-comparative-calm/" target="_blank">Kashmir</a>, the Indian government claims to have <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/08/world/asia/kashmir-village-defense-committees.html" target="_blank">“normalised” the valley</a> after revoking its autonomy in 2019. It <a href="https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/conflict-between-india-and-pakistan" target="_blank">looks a lot like occupation</a>. Soldiers outnumber local leaders, dissent is criminalised, internet shutdowns suffocate public life. Tourism campaigns and investment summits cannot erase a generation raised under curfew and surveillance.
<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-66260730" target="_blank">Manipur’s descent into ethnic bloodshed</a> in 2023 exposed another fault line Delhi prefers to ignore. Long-simmering tensions between the Meitei and Kuki communities erupted into violence that shattered any illusions of northeastern integration. The central government’s delayed, politicised response made clear what many Manipuris had always suspected: they are citizens of India only when convenient.
Even the <a href="https://msf.org.au/rohingya-worlds-largest-stateless-population" target="_blank">Rohingya, stateless and exiled from Myanmar</a>, find themselves entangled in South Asia’s ethnonationalist calculus. Fleeing genocide, they are criminalised anew in Bangladesh and India – trapped between the countries that reject them and the memories that refuse to let them go.
South Asia’s states have excelled at suppressing rebellion. But failed at extinguishing the reasons rebellions rise in the first place. And the wars South Asia tries to forget at home have found new life abroad.
Across <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-06-17/modis-indian-government-accused-of-spying-silencing-critics/103974414" target="_blank">Canada, Australia, Britain, and the United States</a>, diasporic communities have become memory-keepers and, increasingly, <a href="https://www.business-standard.com/world-news/khalistan-supporters-hold-protest-outside-indian-consulate-in-vancouver-123092600087_1.html" target="_blank">the agitators</a> for the struggles their home states would rather erase.
Khalistan flags fly outside Indian consulates in Vancouver and <a href="https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/punjab/perturbed-over-waving-of-khalistani-flags-at-an-event-in-melbourne-india-warns-australia-of-khalistan-separatists-and-their-links-with-terror-groups-458320/" target="_blank">Melbourne</a>. Tamil activists march through London, demanding accountability for the <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/5/19/grim-reminder-sri-lankas-tamils-mark-15-years-since-end-of-civil-war" target="_blank">massacres in Mullivaikkal</a>. Kashmiri protests in Washington and New York refuse to let India’s crackdown slip into diplomatic amnesia.
For host countries, these movements pose uncomfortable questions. Freedom of expression collides with fears of extremism. Clashes erupt between communities carrying wounds that their new homelands.
Meanwhile, South Asian states pursue their adversaries across borders. India faces allegations of <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/canada-says-india-home-minister-ordered-campaign-against-sikh-activist-rcna177972" target="_blank">targeting Sikh activists for assassination in Canada</a> and the <a href="https://www.npr.org/2024/10/27/g-s1-29561/sikh-separatist-assassination-india" target="_blank">United States</a>. Pakistan continues to court Kashmiri separatists abroad while crushing Baloch dissent at home. <a href="https://apnews.com/article/sri-lanka-tamils-civil-war-dead-5b372b0bba567837c5a4d94250040e7d" target="_blank">Sri Lanka</a> lobbies furiously to brand Tamil diaspora organisations as fronts for terrorism, even as it stonewalls investigations into its own wartime atrocities.
The old insurgencies have not been defeated. They have been globalised. South Asia’s governments have long mistaken silence for stability.
In Punjab, India broke the back of the <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/06/india/india-canada-sikh-khalistan-analysis-intl-hnk/index.html" target="_blank">Khalistan insurgency</a> through brute force. The fields grew green again, the trains ran on time. But the wounds were never closed, the <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/why-is-indias-khalistan-separatist-movement-on-the-rise/a-65081729" target="_blank">movement’s heart beats</a> not in Amritsar but in Brampton and Surrey.
In Sri Lanka, the <a href="https://www.academia.edu/4738983/The_Man_Who_Destroyed_Eelam" target="_blank">military crushed the Tamil Tigers</a> with <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2011/01/17/death-of-the-tiger" target="_blank">overwhelming brutality in 2009</a>. <a href="https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3264148/we-want-our-children-back-sri-lankan-families-still-demanding-justice-their-missing-loved-ones" target="_blank">Tamil families still search for their missing</a>, still mourn their dead – and still organise across the diaspora for justice that remains undelivered.
In Kashmir, Delhi boasts of new <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2023/2/4/kashmir-is-bleeding-its-economy" target="_blank">highways and investment corridors</a>, showcasing the region as a trophy of unity. But when the visitors leave and the cameras are packed away, <a href="https://harvardlawreview.org/print/vol-134/from-domicile-to-dominion-indias-settler-colonial-agenda-in-kashmir/" target="_blank">the checkpoints, the raids, and the quiet despair remain.</a>
Victory parades fade. Grievance endures. Suppressing insurgency may end battles. It does not end the ideas that fueled them. In a region where <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/23/world/asia/kashmir-attack-india-pakistan.html" target="_blank">history is rarely past</a>, and memory is rarely voluntary, states that rule through repression are only ever buying time. And often, not very much.
South Asia’s unfinished wars are not accidents. They are the inevitable consequences of states that confuse conquest with consent, and erasure with reconciliation. They cannot legislate memory out of existence.
Every <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c15qyyzz89lo" target="_blank">disappeared son in Balochistan</a>, every <a href="https://medium.com/the-wvoice/the-half-widows-in-kashmir-fef80c6b88e9" target="_blank">half-widow in Kashmir</a>, every <a href="https://www.doctorswithoutborders.org/what-we-do/focus/rohingya-refugee-crisis" target="_blank">refugee child born stateless in a Rohingya camp</a> carries forward the memory of betrayal – a memory that outlives soldiers, politicians, and peace accords alike.
The region’s future will not be decided by GDP figures or infrastructure projects alone. It will be decided by whether its governments can summon the political courage to face the truths they have long suppressed – or whether they will continue down a path <a href="https://theconversation.com/india-is-using-the-g20-summit-to-further-its-settler-colonial-ambitions-in-kashmir-205166" target="_blank">where forgetting is demanded</a>, and rebellion becomes inevitable.
Shyam Tekwani is a professor at the Daniel K. Inouye Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies in Hawaii. This <a href="https://dkiapcss.edu/nexus_articles/ghosts-at-the-border-south-asias-unfinished-wars/" target="_blank">article</a> was originally published on <a href="https://dkiapcss.edu/security-nexus/" target="_blank">DKI APCSS Security Nexus.</a> The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of DKI APCSS, the Department of Defense, or the US Government. The appearance of external hyperlinks does not constitute endorsement by the United States Department of Defense (DoD) of the linked websites, or the information, products, or services contained therein. DoD does not exercise any editorial, security, or other control over the information you may find at these sites.

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