<figure><img width="1400" height="1048" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110714118/636904189c7e80680e037cffjpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Royal Asiatic Society</figcaption></figure>After the <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/thebrief/2015/04/25/massive-earthquake-rattles-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">earthquake of 2015</a>, many Nepalis recalled how well Rana Prime Minister Juddha Shumsher had handled relief and rehabilitation after the <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=5065#.W36JW84zbIU" target="_blank" rel="noopener">megaquake of 1934</a> that leveled the capital and killed 10,000 people. Many felt that even though Juddha Shumsher was a dictator, he was better than most of Nepal's later elected leaders in organising disaster relief.In the last three years, the Nepali social mediasphere has been replete with praise for the oligarch who nearly 81 years ago rushed back to Kathmandu immediately from his travels, refused foreign money for rebuilding, and waived loans for the reconstruction of homes.However, as British historian John Whelpton says, the truth is much more complicated. <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/Rebuilding-what-is-holy,2614" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Juddha was keen to avoid economic help</a> from the British, because the Viceroy Fund then was used to help India’s princely states, and Juddha did not want Nepal to be classified as one.Whelpton is working on a <a href="https://sway.soscbaha.org/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">project with Martin Chautari and Social Science Baha</a> and has come up with other interesting archival anecdotes about the 1934 earthquake: a surgeon from the British legation who treated the wounded wrote that the ‘inhabitants were behaving splendidly, there seemed to be no panic, the people ... were settling down in family groups in those open spaces and preparing to pass the night as best as they could.’ In fact, that could also describe the reaction of survivors after the 2015 earthquake. The <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/reconstruction-and-resilience-2/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nepalis seem to be as resilient as ever</a>.The British Resident during the earthquake, Clendon Daukes, was confident homes would be rebuilt by the monsoon of the same year, but his successor, Frederick Bailey reported three years later in 1937 that ‘houses of the poor had been reconstructed hurriedly and were of poor quality…’. Again, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/building-homes-on-a-deadline/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">something else that has not changed in 81 years.</a> Most public buildings, however, had been reconstructed with local resources by 1938.Juddha may not have been as benevolent as portrayed for waiving loans. Whelpton found evidence that he was coerced to do so by royal courtiers who feared a popular uprising. The Rana prime minister was also not so generous with his Army, refusing to reimburse a four month salary advance after the quake. Whelpton puts forth a theory, based on the papers of one of the ambassadors Betham, that it was an important factor in the growth of  disenchantment with the regime in the army. Read also: <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/the-rana-reign-a-recap-of-history,3751" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Rana reign</a>, Kunda Dixit <figure><img width="400" height="544" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110714118/6369041b9c7e80680e037d00jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure><figure><img width="400" height="545" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110714118/6369041d9c7e80680e037d01jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure><figure><img width="400" height="563" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110714118/6369041e9c7e80680e037d02jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure><figure><img width="400" height="537" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107141112/636904209c7e80680e037d03jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>The earthquake project is part of Whelpton’s ongoing research into <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=10003#.W36KY84zbIU" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nepali history</a>. But his own personal history is as fascinating: an English teacher who became one of Nepal’s most dedicated historians.Whelpton signed up to be a VSO volunteer to teach English in South Asia, wanting to go to India but ended up by chance in Nepal in 1972. He took an 8-week course in Nepali, but realised it was of no use in Birganj where he was stationed -- everyone spoke Hindi.He hiked to Jomsom and Pokhara, and once walked into the main courtyard of Pashupati by mistake, almost getting beaten up by a drunken English-speaking devotee before he was rescued and sent on his way by a policeman.By late 1970s, his Nepali was good enough to translate Jang Bahadur ko Belayat Yatra from Nepali into English. This first-time translation of the travelogue was published with commentary as Jang Bahadur in Europe: The First Nepalese Mission to the West. In its reprint it also contained a <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=152#.W36LO84zbIU" target="_blank" rel="noopener">first-person account of the journe</a>y by Moti Lal Singh, who is considered the first Nepali to get to London and was befriended by Jung and employed as translator. The text of his account, discovered by earlier historians, was republished in full in English for the first time in Whelpton's book.Whelpton’s PhD led to another book on Jang Bahadur: Kings, Soldiers and Priests: Nepalese Politics and the Rise of Jang Bahadur Rana, which included previously unseen archival material. He then went back to his job as an English teacher in Hong Kong, and in his spare time wrote History of Nepal, and surveyed Christianity in Nepal.Foreigners are not allowed access to Nepal’s Foreign Ministry archives which limited Whelpton, but then he had easy access to the British Library where missives sent by residents between 1830-1870 are stored. These records come with their own complications. “Nepali records are mostly official documents, but British documents contain policy debates. They discuss not just what happened but argue about what should be done,” says Whelpton. “So while they often give the bigger picture, there is more danger of bias colouring the information.”After 1870, the British government in India stopped sending records to London, so Whelpton is currently researching in the Foreign Ministry archives in Delhi. Nepal-related documents were classified under the ‘Political’ section meant for internal affairs, until Chandra Shumsher specifically asked that Nepal be put under the ‘Foreign’ department.Though Ranas are seen to be Anglophiles, Whelpton cites this and other examples to claim that they were actually quite patriotic. He adds: “What determines Kathmandu rulers’ attitude to outside powers is the strength of the outside powers. At any given time there is a balance between independence and keeping on the right side of powerful neighbours. For Jang Bahadur, China was becoming weaker, and it made sense to get closer to the British. Even Bhimsen Thapa, seen as a patriot who resisted the British, was swinging more towards the British in his last days.”Despite a shift in academia towards anthropological history of the people rather than a list of rulers, Whelpton calls himself “an old fashioned political historian”, and says Nepal’s politics has become much more complicated, which is why he wants to research it as a historian.A lot needs to be done before Nepal has a comprehensive and complete history, but Whelpton feels that every bit counts: “Scholarship in history can be compared to a cairn on a mountain pass which grows as each traveller throws another stone.”Read also: <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=16227#.W36LL84zbIU" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Jung Bahadur's "tip"</a>, Subodh Rana<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=3246#.W36MDc4zbIU" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Looking for Mr Hodgson</a>, Kanak Mani Dixit

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The rest is history for John Whelpton

Nepali Congress (NC) President Gagan Thapa's candidacy in Sarlahi-4 has thrust this Madhes constituency into rare national focus. If Thapa wins and the NC emerges as the largest party, Sarlahi-4 will send Nepal's next prime minister to Parliament. But if he does not, Nepal’s grand old party will face the next years in the opposition to fight another day. There is a troubling paradox in Sarlahi-4 where the district bordering the Indian state of Bihar has been a battleground for national politicians with fierce electoral competition, all while remaining one of the region's most underserved and underdeveloped constituencies.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485.png" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485" data-rendition-name="original" width="1802" height="1276" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: MADHES PAHARA MEDIA</figcaption> </figure>  Ever since Mahant Thakur split from NC in 2008 to form the Tarai Madhes Loktantrik Party, the district has seen rotating political alliances and fragmented votes. Yet, despite 18 years of candidates promising change irrigation schemes remain incomplete, market access for farmers has not improved, unemployment is high.&nbsp; On election day, voters here marked their ballots with fingers stained by dye from the Holi festival the day before. The road leading to Barathawa Bazar was deserted for the most part, except for some youth riding in motorcycles. This is where the high-profile contest between Gagan Thapa and RSP nominee Amresh Singh is being staged. Among the other aspirants is 27-year-old UML candidate Amnish Yadav, the son of former MP Shiv Pujan Yadav. The Yadavs are a political family with considerable caste influence in the constituency. In 2022 Yadav’s daughter Madhumala Yadav received over 14,000 votes here, ranking third overall. Yadav was voted MP from the Maoist party, but defected to the UML this time. His other son is the chair of Sarlahi’s Ramnagar Rural Municipality. Sarhali-4 has 121,012 voters, and the Yadav is banking on the 27,000-strong Yadav vote bank. Sarlahi-4 voter Avishek Sah told us he wanted his vote to go to a young nominee and not someone who has been MP thrice already, like Amresh Singh. &nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10" data-rendition-name="original" width="1200" height="1600" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  To make local loyalties even more complicated, Amnish Yadav’s uncle, Harinder Yadav is an active NC member and walked side by side with Gagan Thapa during his door-to-door campaigns.&nbsp; The NC is betting on Thapa getting over 60% of the total votes. Amresh Singh’s tally could be limited to 10,000 votes — that too because of the nationwide RSP wave, and the popularity of its prime ministerial hopeful Balendra (Balen) Shah. “Amresh Singh lost his appeal when he played victim after he was denied a ticket by the NC in 2022,” Harinder Yadav says. Voters we spoke to here agreed with this assessment that Singh did not do much for the district once he got elected in the past, and being a part of the RSP seems to be his biggest asset. “The only reason I voted for Amresh Singh is because Balen is in RSP,” local voter Mahendra Gupta from Barathawa. &nbsp;“This is his last chance to return the people’s trust.”&nbsp; Gupta is aware of the institutional presence of the NC here. The party received the most votes in 2022 local elections, adding that the candidacy of someone as high-profile as Thapa is a positive sign for Sarlahi-4.&nbsp; Other voters like Ruby Gupta are rooting for both the NC and the RSP. “I will vote for Gagan and for Balen,” she says, adding that her FPTP vote will go to Thapa while her PR ballot would be for the RSP. RSP supporters are confident that their candidate will win big because even though many voters may not have openly voiced their support they still voted for the party and candidate. The Balen Wave was not limited to RSP voters, but also to UML candidate Yadav, who said in a gathering that he will be “the voters Balen” if they elect him. He touted his party’s track record in government, and largely campaigned on administrative efficiency, infrastructural expansion, and local service delivery. Amresh Singh ran on the RSP’s anti-establishment brand, promising to fight corruption, challenge traditional party politics, improve basic services such as education, health, jobs, and infrastructure, while pushing for stronger representation and development for Madhes.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="1200" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo:AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  Singh’s rivalry with his NC competitor goes beyond the ballot— he allegedly blames Thapa for being denied the NC ticket in 2022, which led him to win the election from Sarlahi-4 as an independent. &nbsp; For his part, Gagan Thapa focused on a more pragmatic development agenda that includes upgrading roads and irrigation, improving schools and hospitals, supporting farmers, and creating employment opportunities with improved governance at the centre. He also promised to build an engineering college in the constituency.&nbsp; Thapa also promoted his own anti-establishment image within the NC, repeatedly reminding voters on the campaign trail that he represents the aspirations of the youth.&nbsp; On Thursday, as voting progressed, there were violent disruptions in two centres where voting was briefly halted. But Sarlahi district police spokesperson Saroj Rai told Nepali Times that there were no major problems. Police in collaboration with the Nepal Army sent the ballot papers to the district’s counting stations, where the votes are expected to be tallied through the night and the winner announced Friday morning.

Sarlahi-4 nervously watches ballot count

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Nepal election live results

As this report is uploaded, the latest results in Nepal’s election show that the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) is headed for an even bigger sweep than most had predicted.
The RSP was leading by large margins in 49 of 165 constituencies, &nbsp;with the UML, NC and NCP trailing far behind. Prominent political figures from the old parties like K P Oli, Minwndra Prasad Rijal, Ishwar Pokhrel, Bishnu Prasad Poudel, Bimalendra Nidhi all seem headed for defeat.
It does look like the RSP’s bell election symbol is ringing right across Nepal — from cities to the remotest districts in the mountains and plains. The party’s blue colour is sweeping the land.
The Nepali people seem to have sent a clear message that they were throughly dissatisfied with the chronic failure of the three main parties to work in the national interest to create jobs and deliver development. It was also an expression of lingering outrage over the the 8 September massacre outside Parliament. &nbsp;
It now looks almost certain that Balendra Shah will get to be Nepal’s next, and youngest, prime minister. Hopefully he will be leading a cabinet of competent and honest technocrats. It remains to seen how the power equation between Shah and the RSP’s leader, Rabi Lamichhane will play out.
Lamichhane is out of jail on bail for fraud cases which he has called political vendetta by the previous regime. Both he and Shah are charismatic and ambitious. Their working relationship will determine Nepal's political stability and whether it can avoid the political cronyism of the past.
This election was not just about casting votes. It was about standing up to principles and a value system, and respecting the hopes and aspirations of Nepal’s youth. It to push for transparent government and against impunity — including for the gunning down of young Nepalis in cold blood.
<div class="embed-block"><iframe src="https://election-geo-dashboard.pages.dev/" width="100%" height="600" frameborder="0"> </iframe>Live election results as winners of candidates are announced.</div>
CAN DO MAN
Shah got mixed reviews as mayor. He was impulsive and ad hoc, but most people inKathmandu and beyond liked his can-do attitude and unconventional style which stood in sharp contract to the legacy leaders. Over his three year mayorship he showed more maturity and planning capacity.&nbsp;
But he always ran headlong into opposition from the federal government over his urban planning and other initiatives to make Kathmandu more liveable. Coming from a civil and structural engineering background, he was involved in building low-cost housing after the 2015 earthquake.
But his public persona is more tied to his irreverent rap lyrics that stood up for the marginalised underprivileged in society, while exposing the high-handedness and apathy of the state. But this also exposed contradictions because he also used his own municipal guards to beat and chase away street vendors and squatters.
But there is no doubt that a combination of the sharp messaging in his rap videos amplified by the algorithms of social media ignited Nepal’s youth to rise up. It was more about optics and emotion than policy and strategy.
He studied Kathmandu district for five years, visiting experts in every field before announcing his independent candidacy for mayor in 2022. Many like me in his own constitunecy did not know who he was and where he came from.
He is a year younger than my architect son, and I saw in him a reflection of my own son’s commitment to serving the nation. I voted for him to be mayor despite his sometimes erratic behaviour, which could be attributed to his youth.
The best sign of his strategic planning, which unsettled septuagenarian and octogenarian politicians, is the he did not grab the first easy option of becoming prime minister in September when GenZ activists offered him the post.&nbsp;
Joining RSP was a masterstroke, as was his challenge to Oli in Jhapa to project national branding. He needed a party platform and Lamichhane needed a popular prime ministerial persona since he himself could not hold the post.
Shah has shown the capacity to take risks when he believes the value justifies the action for the country. Now, he will have to show more strategic thinking on a national scale, as well as understand the delicate geopolitics of Nepal.&nbsp;
He must rise above the kind of crude social media posts that earned him followers on X, but did nothing to erase his erratic and impulsive image.&nbsp;
Some assume that behind his trademark RayBan shades is a closet dictator, and his past remarks about Hitler are still up on social media. He has in the past shown impatience with criticism, unleashing supporters on social media to troll detractors.&nbsp;
Even so, the public seems willing to place their hope on an educated young man with integrity and a proven record for planning at the helm. By tomorrow it will be clear whether the hope Nepalis have held has been fulfilled, and the coming years will show if the RSP will lead Nepalis to a better future.
The voters seem to have shown the door even to the NC despite the fact that under Gagan Thapa, the party had turned a new leaf. A strong government under Prime Minister Balendra Shah heading a carefully selected cabinet and a strong opposition of the NC, UML and other parties for check and balance may be just what we need for a stable Nepal.&nbsp;
Nepalis have collectively always shown maturity in elections. This time they have given a resounding endorsement for integrity and for good governance.

Bells ring all over Nepal

After Thursday’s election, Nepalis are in a wait-and-watch mode. The Election Commission says counting ballot papers will be expedited this time, and the results for the First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) will start being declared within days. In 2022, it took three weeks for the final results to be tallied.&nbsp;
But winning an election is only half the challenge for the parties, forming a government under parliamentary politics is like a complicated mathematical equation.&nbsp;
In 2022, the Nepali Congress (NC) emerged as the biggest party, winning 89 seats. But the UML with 78 seats and the Maoists with 32 formed a minority government. In fact, Sher Bahadur Deuba did not become PM then despite leading the biggest party in Parliament.
This time, there is an unmistakeable Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) wave led by its prime ministerial candidate, Balendra Shah. Besides his own popularity, Shah represents change which most Nepalis are clamouring for after decades of corrupt and feckless coalitions that did not deliver.&nbsp;
The past months of campaigning has seen massive youth engagement on social media through memes, AI clips, and viral images. Digital content that appeals to emotion rather than policy debate between candidates shape electoral outcomes in Nepal and elsewhere. &nbsp;
Shah represents GenZ aspirations, and was their candidate for prime minister. It was only when he declined that Sushila Karki was nominated. None of the political parties in the recent past -- new, old, or revolutionary — have won enough seats to go it alone.&nbsp;
The most recent majority government was formed by the short-lived Communist Party of Nepal after the UML-Maoist merger in 2022. But that rare two-thirds majority collapsed after a power struggle between K P Oli and Pushpa Kamal Dahal. The only party to have won a majority was the NC in the 1991 and 1999 elections. But it is near impossible for it to repeat this success now, even with Gagan Thapa's rebranding of the party.&nbsp;
We have compiled these possible scenarios for election outcome in order of likelihood:
RSP gets a majority
RSP hits the magic 138 to form a government entirely on its own. Balendra Shah wins Jhapa-5, and becomes the new prime minister at 35, the youngest ever to hold the office in Nepal. But danger lurks: there could be a personality clash between Shah and Lamichhane who are both equally ambitious. History could repeat itself.&nbsp;
RSP wins but does not get a majority
RSP is likely to sweep the most votes, but what if it does not secure enough seats for a majority? It would need a coalition partner and Nepali Communist Party (NCP) under Pushpa Kamal Dahal could fit the bill, but only if it has the numbers. The RSP is not likely to team up with the UML or NC.
The NCP is relatively untainted by the 8 September events, and also has former UML defectors like Madhav Kumar Nepal and Bhim Rawal who could bag their rural vote banks. After all, there are no permanent foes in politics. If the royalist RPP and Tarai-based Janata Samajwadi have enough seats, those could be options for the RSP. &nbsp;
NC is second
The NC under the new leadership of Gagan Thapa could become the second biggest force and form a government with RSP in a power-sharing deal with Shah. This would be the most stable scenario since the RSP and NC have competent and idealistic young technocrats. Thapa himself embodies a strong combination of both old and new politics to navigate the system for more efficient government. But then Thapa and the RSP's Rabi Lamichhane do not get along.
NC and NCP form a majority
If the NC becomes the largest party but not by a big margin, it could join up with the NCP and Ujyalo. Teaming up with the UML would likely face backlash with the party and outside. If Gagan Thapa becomes prime minister he will face internal pressure from both Deuba loyalists. Same old story.
Minority coalition of NC, UML and NCP
RSP becomes the first party but does not get a majority, paving the way for the three legacy parties to cobble together a minority government. While this is possible in Nepal’s parliamentary system, such a scenario is likely to lead to more instability and dissatisfaction among young Nepalis demanding change, and even trigger street unrest. &nbsp;

jung

The rest is history for John Whelpton

Sarlahi-4 nervously watches ballot count

Nepal election live results

Bells ring all over Nepal

The magic 138