After Thursday’s election, Nepalis are in a wait-and-watch mode. The Election Commission says counting ballot papers will be expedited this time, and the results for the First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) will start being declared within days. In 2022, it took three weeks for the final results to be tallied.&nbsp;
But winning an election is only half the challenge for the parties, forming a government under parliamentary politics is like a complicated mathematical equation.&nbsp;
In 2022, the Nepali Congress (NC) emerged as the biggest party, winning 89 seats. But the UML with 78 seats and the Maoists with 32 formed a minority government. In fact, Sher Bahadur Deuba did not become PM then despite leading the biggest party in Parliament.
This time, there is an unmistakeable Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) wave led by its prime ministerial candidate, Balendra Shah. Besides his own popularity, Shah represents change which most Nepalis are clamouring for after decades of corrupt and feckless coalitions that did not deliver.&nbsp;
The past months of campaigning has seen massive youth engagement on social media through memes, AI clips, and viral images. Digital content that appeals to emotion rather than policy debate between candidates shape electoral outcomes in Nepal and elsewhere. &nbsp;
Shah represents GenZ aspirations, and was their candidate for prime minister. It was only when he declined that Sushila Karki was nominated. None of the political parties in the recent past -- new, old, or revolutionary — have won enough seats to go it alone.&nbsp;
The most recent majority government was formed by the short-lived Communist Party of Nepal after the UML-Maoist merger in 2022. But that rare two-thirds majority collapsed after a power struggle between K P Oli and Pushpa Kamal Dahal. The only party to have won a majority was the NC in the 1991 and 1999 elections. But it is near impossible for it to repeat this success now, even with Gagan Thapa's rebranding of the party.&nbsp;
We have compiled these possible scenarios for election outcome in order of likelihood:
RSP gets a majority
RSP hits the magic 138 to form a government entirely on its own. Balendra Shah wins Jhapa-5, and becomes the new prime minister at 35, the youngest ever to hold the office in Nepal. But danger lurks: there could be a personality clash between Shah and Lamichhane who are both equally ambitious. History could repeat itself.&nbsp;
RSP wins but does not get a majority
RSP is likely to sweep the most votes, but what if it does not secure enough seats for a majority? It would need a coalition partner and Nepali Communist Party (NCP) under Pushpa Kamal Dahal could fit the bill, but only if it has the numbers. The RSP is not likely to team up with the UML or NC.
The NCP is relatively untainted by the 8 September events, and also has former UML defectors like Madhav Kumar Nepal and Bhim Rawal who could bag their rural vote banks. After all, there are no permanent foes in politics. If the royalist RPP and Tarai-based Janata Samajwadi have enough seats, those could be options for the RSP. &nbsp;
NC is second
The NC under the new leadership of Gagan Thapa could become the second biggest force and form a government with RSP in a power-sharing deal with Shah. This would be the most stable scenario since the RSP and NC have competent and idealistic young technocrats. Thapa himself embodies a strong combination of both old and new politics to navigate the system for more efficient government. But then Thapa and the RSP's Rabi Lamichhane do not get along.
NC and NCP form a majority
If the NC becomes the largest party but not by a big margin, it could join up with the NCP and Ujyalo. Teaming up with the UML would likely face backlash with the party and outside. If Gagan Thapa becomes prime minister he will face internal pressure from both Deuba loyalists. Same old story.
Minority coalition of NC, UML and NCP
RSP becomes the first party but does not get a majority, paving the way for the three legacy parties to cobble together a minority government. While this is possible in Nepal’s parliamentary system, such a scenario is likely to lead to more instability and dissatisfaction among young Nepalis demanding change, and even trigger street unrest. &nbsp;

Sonia Awale

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The magic 138

K P Oli of the UML is trying not to fall from a precarious tight rope, Gagan Thapa is busy mending his NC party, while the RSP’s Balendra Shah is bungee jumping off the bridge in this cartoon (above) made exclusively for Nepali Times by artist Anup Tamu.&nbsp;
This post-GenZ movement election is a contest between a stale past, and the promise of a fresh start. The post-1990 politics saw instability, polarisation, an insurgency, a royal coup that briefly brought back the absolute monarchy, and will now be replaced with a new, accountable political culture.&nbsp;
At least that is the hope.
The old is represented by 75-year-old Oli who was deposed after the 8-9 September upheaval. Challenging him directly in his own constituency of Jhapa-5 is Shah, the popular former mayor of&nbsp;
Kathmandu. If informal polls are right, Shah and the RSP are set to win. That means this is ultimately going to be a contest between&nbsp;
Balendra Shah and Gagan Thapa, the new leader of the grand old party.
This election came down to a personality clash between &nbsp;personality cults. Most are voting for the prime minister of a party, not for the party of a future prime minister. Below are profiles of the three prime ministerial hopefuls:
K P Oli&nbsp;
The comeback kid. Forced to resign and flee after disastrously banning social media in September, yet here he is, back again, elected chair of the UML for the third time in a row. &nbsp;
The UML party line is that those protests were fuelled not by genuine frustration with the leadership, but by bad actor infiltrators. The election is between those who want to build the nation and those who want to burn it down, Oli says.&nbsp;
It seems unlikely that after the September upheaval, the country will allow Oli Ba a return to the office he was forced to vacate. Yet his longevity is undeniable, despite two kidney translpants.
Oli started at age 18 in the radical Communist underground in eastern Nepal in the early 1970s. He spent 14 years in prison, emerged in 1987, and became a central committee member of the UML, served as Home Minister, and was known for his oratory.
He became prime minister for the first time in 2015, opposing India’s unofficial blockade and making trade deals with China. He was adept at playing the nationalist card, and pushed for the adoption of the Nepal map that included disputed Limpiyadhura, riling New Delhi no end.
Oli has been prime minister four times, which is also how many kidneys there are in his body. Tons of experience in age and at the very top of Nepali politics is certainly what he has over both Gagan Thapa and Balendra Shah. This is a negative too because he represents obsolete politics.&nbsp;
Oli defended his multiple premiership: “I have been PM for a total of five years. How come nobody gets a headache when neighbouring countries have been leaders for 15 years? How come other 80-year-old leaders are not criticised?”&nbsp;
Oli has a sharp tongue and a wicked sense of humour that often gets him into trouble. He is prone to hyperbole and weaving fantasies, making him the target of ridicule. Over the years, he has promised ocean-going ships on the Kosi, gas pipelines, supercomputers, and rapid airport development, with zero follow-through.&nbsp;
Oli developed a thin skin towards the end of his tenure, squeezing the press and social media. He has chosen not to issue any apology or accept accountability for the 8 September massacre. His own party has gone along with this delusion, but now the people will have their say.&nbsp;
Gagan Thapa&nbsp;
Of the three prime ministerial hopefuls, Gagan Thapa of the NC would seem to be the ideal compromise of old and new, youth and experience. Starting as a student activist, he has had an extensive political career, and is an anti-monarchist who has seen stints in jail.&nbsp;
Thapa was elected to the first Constituent Assembly in 2008 and has since always been an MP. As health minister in 2016-17, he introduced Nepal’s first health insurance scheme. Almost 50 now, Thapa can no longer claim to be a Young Turk, although he is still 25 years younger than Oli.&nbsp;
Thapa has waited patiently for his day in the limelight, and sensed his time had come after the GenZ movement. He seized the NC leadership from Sher Bahadur Deuba, becoming president unopposed during a ‘special’ general convention. Deuba seems to still be in shock after a near-lynching and the burning down of his house. &nbsp;
Contesting from Sarlahi and not his usual Kathmandu constituency, Thapa has launched an extensive campaign on the ground and on social media. Much of this focuses on a rebranding of his party as Nepali Congress 2.0. He is also making a distinction between a reformed NC and newbies in the RSP, but is facing a stiff challenge in Sarlahi-4 from former NC member Amresh Singh who defected to the RSP.
He is one of few politicians who use social media effectively. After the September protests, even when his house was burnt down, he spoke directly into a camera to say sorry on behalf of his party. “Our core values are still the same: democracy, social justice, democracy,” he said.&nbsp;
No more coalitions that go against principles, no more corruption, judge us by performance and not speeches, Thapa has said. Idealistic, but can he pull it off in a party so rooted in the old ways of doing things?
Thapa’s heart seems to be in the right place. As MP he has spoken up against his party’s aging leadership, and in favour of the right to free expression. He represents the voting block that is tired of the old, but sceptical of the new.
Balendra Shah
‘Rapper/Structural Engineer/Kathmandu Metropolitan Ex Mayor’ reads the TikTok bio of @balenshah. Balendra Shah could not be more unconventional as a Nepali politician.&nbsp;
He is running a brave gambit, choosing to contest Jhapa-5 and challenge K P Oli in his home turf. If Shah wins, it will be quite a statement from voters. What a blow to Oli, and all of the legacy parties. The apt bell symbol of his RSP is sounding the alarm.&nbsp;
Despite his rapper background, Shah’s campaign so far has been scanty with words. He has chosen to partake in aurafarming — in one video he pilots a boat in Udaypur, in another he drives on a rural road. Many posts position him as a family man.&nbsp;
Unlike Gagan Thapa, Shah has few videos that speak directly to the voting public. And he never spoke to the press while mayor and on the campaign trail. There were sarcastic comments after his recent campaign address, one feigning surprise: “He speaks!”
This is carefully curated brand-building, along with the trademark beard and sunglasses. With a ‘Balen Craze’ sweeping the country, his thinking perhaps is: ‘The less I say, the less chance that I mess up.’
And he has messed up in impulsive social media posts since deleted (page 10-11) in which he heaped abuse at India, China and the US. He also once threatened to burn down Singha Darbar after being stopped by traffic police.&nbsp;
Shah has been campaigning not just in Jhapa but all over the country, trying to establish his credentials as a national leader. At a speech in Itahari this week, he vowed to solve problems of agriculture, tourism, sports, and connectivity.&nbsp;
It was a weak speech, lacking focus, much stuttering, superficial, and without the powerful tone of Thapa or Oli. However, the crowd was engaged and loved every minute of it. Shah’s supporters have made up their minds.&nbsp;
As Kathmandu mayor, Shah got mixed reviews. Many were outraged by his crackdown on street vendors and squatters, and his flashy attempts to beautify Kathmandu were seen to be performative. Budget spending was one of the lowest among metropolitan cities, yet the public perception is that Kathmandu is cleaner and better managed.&nbsp;
If Shah looks to succeed and last in Nepal’s politics, and perhaps as prime minister, he would have to conduct himself in a much more diplomatic and transparent manner.&nbsp;
To some, he is a populist and too new to be taken seriously. Others are skeptical about him joining the RSP, with all of the scandals of its leaders.&nbsp;
But as the elected mayor of Kathmandu, and holding on to the position for four years, he has proven that at least he has initiative and effectiveness. &nbsp;

Vishad Raj Onta

OLD vs NEW vs NEW

During the 2022 election, populist candidates campaigned with algorithms and were elected mayors. In 2026, they are campaigning with AI-generated memes and videos. Four years ago, the idea that the most potent weapon in the next election in Nepal would be artificially generated clips of politicians beating each other up would have been science fiction. Yet, here we are: at a fever pitch of AI-based political content. Some are generated by the IT cells of political parties, while most are just produced and posted by young tech-savvy supporters of the new candidates. Most of them ridicule older leaders, and the predominant target is former prime minister K P Oli who was forced to resign after the September protests. On 20 January the TikTok account ‘iamfunnyman88’ posted a slapstick video in which former Kathmandu Mayor Balendra Shah is seen accosting ex-prime minister K P Oli with a giant bell (pictured), swinging it in Kung Fu Hustle style in what looks like Patan Darbar Square. Oli is sent splattered on the ground. K P Oli has become a symbol of the legacy parties and their aged leaders, and everything that is wrong with them. Balendra Shah represents the new protest candidate. The two are contesting from Jhapa-5, and it is turning out to be a prime ministerial race for 5 March. In another video, the RSP vs UML clash played out as a high-stakes war from the Mahabharat. Oli is a young warrior with a chiselled jaw and wearing a heavy golden armour ready to lead his followers to battle (pictured). A stylised Nepal flag flutters above him to the accompaniment of filmy dialogue.&nbsp; The videos are everywhere on TikTok, YouTube and Facebook. Many of the posts are hitting over 200,000 likes and 5 million views. Such content seems to be engaging more voters than speeches and door-to-door campaigning at the hustings. The videos are fake, but the numbers, and the attention they command, are very real.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2026013014010_ed52fe3248b54eb4f9f391ee718e874a86c1b98297dde203800ad7b114bdacda.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="2026013014010_ed52fe3248b54eb4f9f391ee718e874a86c1b98297dde203800ad7b114bdacda" data-rendition-name="original" width="2000" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal election memes"> </figure>  At first, it looked like the RSP’s digital media presence was a joke aimed at getting easy-to-access publicity via the far-reaching arms of the algorithm. But it is looking like a carefully designed strategy promoting Balen Shah as the RSP’s star player in this election.&nbsp; In 2022, it was just for the mayor of Kathmandu. This time, Balen Shah is already being promoted in these videos as a winner who has defeated the legacy politicians.&nbsp; In previous elections in Nepal, political parties used to spend lavishly on the ‘masu bhat’ strategy — feeding heavy plates of mutton curry and rice to constituents in return for votes. Ideology was swapped for immediate caloric gratification often accompanied by free-flowing alcohol.&nbsp; But surely, the new voter is too sophisticated for this. Politicians insist they have rebooted their operating systems to serve this enlightened demographic. We are talking, after all, about the generation that brought down a government over 36 hours in September.&nbsp; The assumption is that young voters today are too aware and far too proud to trade democratic agency for something as crude as a plate of steaming mutton curry and rice.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2026013014014_983476ba334f895b64cd8ea34bd0ad79c1632c428feb119c84477d8e929eb057.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="2026013014014_983476ba334f895b64cd8ea34bd0ad79c1632c428feb119c84477d8e929eb057" data-rendition-name="original" width="2000" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal elections meme"> </figure>  But the question is: are voters today any different? Aren’t these social media memes digital versions of the masu bhat that delivers a dopamine rush to voters? Watching the videos is entertainment that delivers a state of bliss, a protest against what is old but no enlightenment about how to get to the new. &nbsp; The I-cannot-go-a-single-minute-without-checking-my-phone demographic has leaned firmly towards politicians whose main focus is to be a social media star first, and an accountable politician second. More than 70% of Nepalis have smartphones now and most are hooked on data plans. The public has acquired a taste for a different kind of masu bhat - the digital kind. Instead of being made to slurp up the free spicy, fatty goat curry with deep guttural satisfaction, voters are being made to swallow easy-to-digest online clips to make serious voting decisions.&nbsp; After all, it is more fun than paying attention to a candidate’s policy proposals and actually thinking critically about the candidates.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2026013014014_eb3a9e0c50f4a47706a6695e78ae41556c3d9754c15d564d42fb0de3f4199999.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="2026013014014_eb3a9e0c50f4a47706a6695e78ae41556c3d9754c15d564d42fb0de3f4199999" data-rendition-name="original" width="2000" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal elections meme"> </figure>  TURNING POINT An important moment for the evolution of this digital masu bhat is the 2020 pandemic. It was just six years ago that the entire population was cut off from physical interaction. The phone screen became the sole mediator of social existence.&nbsp; Technology changes what we see as important, and this prolonged immersion fundamentally alters our perception of reality, training us to accept the flattened, binary logic of the algorithm as a substitute for the complex, multisensory texture of political reality. What is on the phone has started to dictate the questions we ask and the answers we accept. If it is not on the phone, it is starting to look irrelevant. The memes manufacture consent. Gerontocratic politicians habituated to legacy media have not fathomed the implications of this new virtual world. Everyone has been swayed by a good story since the beginning of time. Now, the phone has allowed millions of Nepalis to tell, retell, consume, and remix stories that would traditionally have huge barriers to entry. Consider the vegetable vendor killing time between customers, Gen-Z youth with no memory of the Maoist conflict, or the grandad who cannot distinguish an AI video from real footage.&nbsp; When they finally step into the voting booth, what is guiding their hand? Is it a careful calculus of policy proposals, demonstrated competence, and leadership integrity? Or is it the cumulative impact of those AI-generated dopamine hits they have been fed on a loop? This digital fog of war cuts both ways. In a twist of supreme irony, actual footage of candidates behaving badly is now routinely dismissed as ‘AI-generated’ by their PR teams. This was a convenient get-out-of-jail-free card that Balen’s camp used when a video of him shoving cadres went viral.&nbsp; Meanwhile, completely fabricated tear-jerkers of old leaders like Prachanda weeping are consumed by the public as gospel truth. We have arrived at a point where the inconvenient real is dismissed as a glitch, and the emotional fake is embraced as history.&nbsp; In Society of the Spectacle, Guy Debord argued that images eventually replace real life. Today’s voters in Nepal and elsewhere are not even consuming the actual meat-and-bones of mutton curry; they are swallowing the 15 second digital imitations of it.&nbsp; Welcome to the age of digital मासु भात.

Nepal’s AI-generated election

In December we headlined an analysis in this paper that the election was going to be a fight between <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/old-vs-new-in-2026-eyyt3itl">Old and New</a>. With just a month to go for polls, it is now looking more like New vs New.
The symbolic Balendra Shah vs K P Oli struggle has now been replaced by a face-off between Shah and Gagan Thapa, the new leader of the Nepali Congress (NC).
The Tarai with its vast vote bank has become the battleground for this fight with Shah contesting against Oli in Jhapa and Thapa standing in Sarlahi. And social media is the arena for this epic clash of personality cults.
Which means that instead of finding solutions to problems like health, education, jobs, inflation and social welfare, it is all about optics and stunts. AI-generated and algorithm-driven memes are influencing people’s choices.
“This is not democracy but a very morphed form of political consumerism where political men are selling their brand, and people are lapping that up,” says political scientist Sucheta Pyakuryal.&nbsp;
“Democracy is a way of life, it is not one size fits all, it doesn’t bully opposing voices, it is civilised, personable, tolerant.”
To be sure, Shah and Lamichhane claim to represent GenZ aspirations for cleaner and more efficient government, much like they did in 2022. But elections are expensive, and that is the root of corruption. Shah driving around Nepal in a flashy Defender SUV loaned by a noodle tycoon is proof to some that despite all the rhetoric of ‘new’ it is the same old crony-driven politics.
Author Mohan Mainali says party cadre used to mobilise voluntarily during campaigns, but Nepal’s elections have long stopped being about issues and ideology,
“But political parties lost their morality, and when their actions opposed their avowed principles, the spirit of elections was lost too,” Mainali says. “Cadre and crowds have to be rented, making elections more expensive, and it looks much worse this time around.”
Parties both old and new have moved so far away from what they promise in their manifestos, that it makes little sense to have them. All this means that this election is not so much about what the new candidates can do, but a protest vote against the tried, tested and failed legacy parties.
And that decision is made on the basis of ‘who’ rather than ‘what’. Who wins in Jhapa 5, for example, will determine the future course of Nepal. The winner there will eliminate one prime ministerial candidate, and then set up the possibility of a contest with Gagan Thapa.&nbsp;
“The real question is, can the RSP and NC, which have already declared their prime ministerial candidates muster majorities in Parliament?” Mainali muses. “In all likelihood no. The proportional representation vote is very important so people are tempted to vote based on who will be the next prime minister. But that is not how our system is supposed to work.”&nbsp;
Madhes Province has over 3.6 million voters, and more than half of Nepal’s population is in the Tarai. That can make or break the election for candidates. In the past parties have canvassed in the polls only to ignore the region once in power. And that goes for many Madhesi leaders themselves.
It was only after the 2015 federal republican Constitution that Madhes saw some representation, but it has been mostly sidelined in the GenZ protests.
In his analysis for the Annapurna Post this week, Birganj-based political commentator Chandrakishore writes that the Madhes should not just be a vote bank, but a political conscience for the nation.
‘Federalism has not favoured the Madhes, but it is the duty of the state. The parties that made the Constitution should tell us why federalism was weakened. The RSP should answer why it ignored the provincial structure in the past. The Madhes only wanted identity, representation, rights, and good governance,’ he wrote.
Indeed, it is ironic that the RSP that has been ambiguous on federalism, is now actively campaigning in the capital of federalism with Balendra Shah now capitalising on his plains ancestry — something he has not emphasised in the past.&nbsp;
“On one hand you say you want to remove provinces because there are too many positions which have become extremely costly for the state but you are also assuring your aides that there are plenty of positions to be doled out in the current federal structure,” says Sucheta Pyakuryal.
She adds: “You could forgo the ideology which we have done in Nepali politics for a long time now, you don’t even have to be a diehard socialist or liberal to enter the political arena but when even the lowest benchmarks such as basic decency and honesty are not met, how can you represent the people? We want representatives who look like us, sound like us, think like us, not brand names and saviours.”&nbsp;

New vs New in Nepal

In a democracy, governments come and go. But Nepal had become so entangled in the triangular affair between Sher Bahadur Deuba, K P Oli and Pushpa Kamal Dahal that it was becoming impossible to tell who was canoodling with whom.&nbsp;
All three had long since abandoned their party ideologies. Staying in power was all that mattered as they turned Nepal’s democracy into a kleptocracy.&nbsp;
For the past at least 20 years, we have warned them to mend their ways. Democracy had to be rescued from the hands of such kakistocrats. Waiting to pounce were monarchists and anarchists of every ilk, outcast Maoists, and supporters of a leader jailed for fraud. Tycoon Durga Prasai said his rally in March was to restore a Hindu monarchy, but he was just a temporary royalist whom even the ex-king spurned.&nbsp;
All this converged into a perfect storm on 8 September. Commandos shot and killed 19 innocent young people outside Parliament, the anger boiled over into targetted arson and vandalism the next day. The government fell, and Sushila Karki was elected interim prime minister through Discord.&nbsp;
With not just their monopoly on power but also their very lives in danger, the triumvirate was at first in total shock. Then came conspiracy theories and an inability to gauge the rage from decades of misrule.
Nepalis had assumed that after September the old parties would see their folly, and step down to hand over the leadership to a new generation. But 10 weeks later, there is no sign of any act of contrition.
In the NC, Sher Bahadur Deuba has sidelined the caretaker he himself appointed, Purna Bahadur Khadka, and is active again as the party prepares for a showdown in its Convention next month. The UML is proceeding with its own General Convention, where Oli is fully assured of a third term as party boss. Dahal sees no alternative to himself in his newly-forged Nepali Communist Party and is eagerly eyeing becoming prime minister for the fourth time.&nbsp;
The three leaders who everyone had hoped would finally retire have reincarnated. It is obscene for obsolete politicians to still hanker for power after all that has happened.&nbsp;
SHOCK AND AWE
The three leaders who have been prime minister a dozen times between themselves want to cling on, but this is not abnormal if we apply <a href="https://www.bbc.com/audio/play/w3cszmjz" target="_blank">Elisabeth Kübler-Ross</a>’ theory of the five stages of grief. The author of <a href="https://www.google.com.np/books/edition/On_Death_and_Dying/GlSq0AEACAAJ?hl=en" target="_blank">On Death and Dying</a> was analysing how people with terminal illness deal with their situation, but her 5-stage theory may be applicable to the way heads of the NC, UML and NCP are reacting to the shock of being overthrown — first with denial, then anger, bargaining, depression and finally acceptance.&nbsp;
On 9 September, distressed by what had befallen them, the three were in total denial. Then began the stage of anger. Oli ranted in public about a conspiracy to install an ‘unconstitutional’ interim government, blaming the Nepal Army, and vowing not to take part in election even while preparing for it.
The NC has decided to participate in elections, although it has to first sort out its internal power struggle. The NCP and the RSP have united with smaller parties and are actively preparing to campaign. GenZ groups are speaking in different voices, with Sudan Gurung and Miraj Dhungana openly trying to unseat an interim government they themselves installed.&nbsp;
The parties are now in the third stage: bargaining. Instead of asking himself in hindsight what he should have done, Oli wants Parliament restored but has also registered his party for elections. The UML won't allow elections unless the government lifts restrictions on Oli’s movement.
Likewise, GenZ groups are putting up conditions for supporting polls: arrest Oli and others. Karki is single-mindedly focussed on elections, even if it has to be put off by two months. The Army would also like polls on time because it does not want a repeat of September when it had to intervene to form the interim government.
If Karki’s 6-month mandate ends without elections, and if by then the GenZ’s trust in the interim government collapses, then UML and NC could plan to press for an all-party election government, restoration of Parliament which would then dissolve itself to appoint a new prime minister that Karki would also be agreeable to.
The current state of affairs makes it difficult to imagine elections being held on 5 March — mainly because polls would be incomplete without the three main parties taking part, and it is unlikely they would participate in polls that they are certain to lose since they have not reformed themselves. Amidst these ifs and buts, the role of the Army will be critical.&nbsp;
The fourth stage of grief is depression, and that is what will happen to the parties when the reality of their unpopularity finally hits them. Only then will they finally accept their fate, realise that it was all their own doing, and perhaps reinvent themselves.
Kübler-Ross said the five stages did not necessarily have to be in that order, or that sometimes there may only be three phases, which may be applicable to the parties. What is for sure is that the three leaders are in no mood to atone for their sins.
Rabin Giri is an editor with <a href="http://nepalnews.com/" target="_blank">nepalnews.com</a>.&nbsp;

Stages of denial

Prime Minister Sushila Karki may look calm, composed and unruffled, but with elections only four months away, she faces mounting pressure from all directions.&nbsp;
Despite reiterating that her only agenda is to hold those polls on 5 March 2026, there are distractions and detractors. She faces pressure to nominate new ministers, the Supreme Court has rescinded her decision to recall ambassadors, industrialists whose electricity supply has been cut off are on warpath.
This is why in the past week, she convened the first meeting between GenZ representatives and the political parties, consulted with Nepal-based ambassadors, met the chief ministers of all seven provinces, met the chiefs of security agencies, and invited editors from the mainstream press to Baluwatar.
Her message was the same to all of them: my core priority is elections. But the message she got from most interlocutors: current conditions need to improve if elections are to be free, fair and peaceful.
The biggest obstacle to credible elections is that the three main political parties are convinced that they will be trounced, and are too busy resolving bitter internal power struggles.
The Maoists appear to be the most eager to face voters, the second echelon of the Nepali Congress (NC) is trying to convince the establishment Deuba faction convinced the party will face a humiliating defeat if the leadership is not overhauled.&nbsp;
The UML is still smarting from being ousted and the violence and destruction of September. But K P Oli shows no signs of remorse or a realisation of the enormity of what happened two months ago. &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
The RSP could lead the charge for change, but with its leader in jail the party is floundering. New parties are being formed right up to the deadline, and some members of Karki’s cabinet and inner circle appear keen to contest. The newly-formed GenZ Front led by Rakshya Bam appears to be the precursor to a new party.
The GenZ-parties meeting last week must have frustrated the prime minister because there is disagreement within the youth movement as well as in the established parties (as well as between them) on the elections themselves.
Prime Minister Karki expressed some of this exasperation in her meeting with editors on Friday: “The original three demands of the GenZ were anti-corruption, governance and lack of job opportunities which was causing mass migration. But there are now new demands like directly elected prime minister to an interim Constitution.”
But she also applauded the youth for their political, legal and constitutional maturity in a short period of time and said the political parties were committed to participating in elections.
“In the GenZ I see a young Ram Chandra Paudel, a young Sher Bahadur Deuba,” she said, “They have the same energy and commitment to build a better Nepal.”
The prime minister comes across as someone genuinely interested in putting the country back on the right track, and her remarks are candid and not rehearsed. She said at one point: “Why don’t the party leaders just remove themselves, and make way for new faces?”
It is widely believed that Karki’s name was first proposed by Kathmandu mayor Balen Shah to the GenZ whose followers then voted for her on Discord.&nbsp;
Balen Shah sees himself as a kingmaker, and is irked that the government does not listen to him. This week he shot off an abusive social media post at midnight that he immediately deleted, lashing out at India, the US and China as well as the three main parties. He has now said he is not going to stand in elections, and will complete his mayoral term.
Karki and Shah have met several times in the past month, and the prime minister denied any disagreement: “I regard him as my son, and he sees me as an elder sister.”&nbsp;
She called her government a mediator between GenZ groups and political parties, and urged businessman Durga Prasai, who has been threatening protests to reinstate a Hindu monarchy, to contest the election.
Karki justified the recall of ambassadors, saying it was necessary because they were political appointees who had been bad-mouthing her caretaker government and were corrupt.&nbsp;
Some GenZ groups are impatient about the government dragging its feet on arresting former prime minister Oli and ex-home minister Ramesh Lekhak and others for the 8 September massacre outside Parliament. They are especially critical of Home Minister Om Aryal.
“They demanded we resign immediately if we could not punish those responsible for the 8 September killings,” recalled Karki, but that had to look at the overall situation and bring them to participate in elections.
Home Minister Aryal was also at the meeting with editors, and clarified: “We believe in the rule of law, and will follow due process. Our top priority was to bring the situation back to normal, and stop any violent retaliation.”&nbsp;
Asked about how investment can be revived after pictures of burning Hilton and Ncell spread around the word, Karki didn’t have a specific answer.
In front of the editors, Karki confronted her ministers about whether they had electoral ambitions. Home Minister Aryal and Finance Minister Rameshore Khanal shook their heads, but Energy and Infrastructure Minister Kulman Ghising stared unsmiling at his notes. Ghising is said to be in talks with the RSP to find a way for his Ujyalo Party to work together.&nbsp;
The Prime Minister appears not only committed to elections, but convinced that security, infrastructure, budget, participation, registration of candidates and voters are in place to make it happen.
She has no time to think of what will happen if elections do not happen. The scenario is quite unthinkable: elections are postponed till May, the interim government’s mandate expires, Parliament is reinstated.&nbsp;
This is the scenario K P Oli and his UML seem to be counting on, but which most analysts say, will lead the country into a long dark tunnel of extended instability.
Sushila Karki says she has no time to think about elections not happening: “We do not have the luxury of failure. We will work with everyone to make elections happen, because it is Nepal’s future at stake. And when a new government is formed, I will not stay here a day longer.”&nbsp;

Election countdown: 4 more months

K P Oli is Nepal’s Prime Minister for the fourth time. Regardless of the fact that we are just recycling the same old, tried, tested and failed leaders, Oli has now secured himself a position among Nepal's serial prime ministers.&nbsp; He has promised to vacate the chair for coalition partner Sher Bahadur Deuba, who will be PM for the sixth time in 18 months. Deuba has only one more tenure to go to prove his astrologer right. His consort Arzu Deuba was sworn in as foreign minister in the new cabinet this week. Surya Bahadur Thapa of the Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP) and Girija Prasad Koirala of NC were prime ministers five times each. Lokendra Bahadur Chand also of RPP has been PM four times, last appointed by the king Gyanendra at the peak of the Maoist conflict after he had dissolved Parliament.&nbsp; Oli first became prime minister in 2015, although he has been a powerful member of the UML ever since the 1990s. His second term was two and a half years later in 2018 after Nepal's first federal elections. The third time he was a minority PM and was in the office for two months before Deuba upstaged him in 2021. Now, the two leaders who backstabbed each other multiple times are partners in government again. There could be no better proof of the truth in the adage that there are no real enemies or friends in politics.&nbsp; Besides Arzu Deuba, the NC has also brought back Prakash Man Singh (son of democracy warrior Ganesh Man Singh) as deputy PM and Minister for Urban Development. Bishnu Paudel of the UML has returned as the Finance Minister for the third time with his work cut out to revive a stagnant economy. His appointment is also under a cloud because his son has been implicated in the Baluwatar land scam.&nbsp; Notably, there are only two women ministers in the cabinet. Besides Arzu Deuba, Bidya Bhattarai replaces Sumana Shrestha of RSP as the Minister of Education. There are no Dalit or Muslim ministers. In these archival images by photojournalist Bikas Rauniar, we trace the political journey of some of these prominent figures, and in their faces we see the passage of time. But we are also reminded that the more things change, the more they remain the same. We see Oli on a street demonstration with Madhav Kumar Nepal (now his nemesis) and other leaders in 1998 protesting inflation and state violence. Two years later, he is at a commemoration of the North Korean National Day in Kathmandu. We also catch a glimpse of Oli with a young Bidya Devi Bhandari, who later became the first female president.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2024071617070_5bb57b7aacd98ce990c51a6c2d255bad10c8398bb3dd12b318c6beec3afa2c3f.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="2024071617070_5bb57b7aacd98ce990c51a6c2d255bad10c8398bb3dd12b318c6beec3afa2c3f" data-rendition-name="original" width="2073" height="1285" loading="lazy" alt="K P Oli and Bidya Bandari in 1995"> <figcaption>Home Minister K P Oli , Bidya Devi Bhandari, Mirza Dilshad Beg at Kathmandu airport to see off Haj pilgrims in 1995.</figcaption> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2024071617070_a2dbc57c66692d4b0712d16ebf8e62b004359b5b98768008b2e7d47ff6e84a5a.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="2024071617070_a2dbc57c66692d4b0712d16ebf8e62b004359b5b98768008b2e7d47ff6e84a5a" data-rendition-name="original" width="2440" height="1204" loading="lazy" alt="K P Oli in UMP party meeting in 1996"> <figcaption>K P Oli, Madhav Kumar Nepal, Bharat Mohan Adhikari and other UML leaders at a parliamentary party meeting at Singha Durbar in 1996.</figcaption> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240716160756_e85cc21bf3cb305e6e46471f323136f72ebe961654cdf55884ec3b83a4927806.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20240716160756_e85cc21bf3cb305e6e46471f323136f72ebe961654cdf55884ec3b83a4927806" data-rendition-name="original" width="2357" height="1537" loading="lazy" alt="K O Oli in a protest with Madhav Nepal NT"> <figcaption>K P Oli, Madhav Kumar Nepal and others during a demonstration against the NC government outside Singha Darbar in 1998.</figcaption> </figure>  We also see Arzu Deuba as an activist attending a public hearing on the Arun III project in 1992, and another photo of her with her bespectacled husband, Sher Bahadur Deuba. A 1994 photo captures Prakash Man Singh with his father Ganesh Man Singh at a function.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2024071617070_2a7130b955b7c7b41214c528ca93d59cf8d6e6fa6df0301c2fb660384a63725a.jpg" data-media-id="editor_3" data-image-id="2024071617070_2a7130b955b7c7b41214c528ca93d59cf8d6e6fa6df0301c2fb660384a63725a" data-rendition-name="original" width="1332" height="669" loading="lazy" alt="Arzu Deuba at Arun III hearing"> <figcaption>Newly appointed Foreign Minister Arzu Rana Deuba (2nd from left) with Anil Chitrakar, water expert Ajaya Dixit, journalist Rajendra Dahal, hydropower expert Bikash Pandey, Rishi Shah. (Behind) Barbara Adams, Huta Ram Baidya and others during the first public hearing of the Arun III project at Kathmandu Hotel in 1992. Arzu Rana was then working for International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN).</figcaption> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2024071617070_0c8b83e82cf7b3b121caf5000f1108a795ce5a8ec718701773a939a69f4a8137.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="2024071617070_0c8b83e82cf7b3b121caf5000f1108a795ce5a8ec718701773a939a69f4a8137" data-rendition-name="original" width="1498" height="897" loading="lazy" alt="Arzu Deba during a heritage walk"> <figcaption>Arzu Rana walking with Karna Shakya and others in Thimi during a heritage observation walk in 1995.</figcaption> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2024071617074_cc3fbd1e66e8c4f1e9dd381f780f8797a074988acc6f0b56b3710e2057bfba9f.jpg" data-media-id="editor_5" data-image-id="2024071617074_cc3fbd1e66e8c4f1e9dd381f780f8797a074988acc6f0b56b3710e2057bfba9f" data-rendition-name="original" width="2468" height="1437" loading="lazy" alt="Prakash Man Singh and Ganesh Man Singh in 1994"> <figcaption>Prakash Man Singh with his father Ganesh Man Singh, Krishna P Bhattarai, Yog P Upadhyaya during a Nepali Congress rally at Khula Manch in 1994.</figcaption> </figure>  &nbsp;

Those were the days

In yet another chapter of <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/shadow-government-nepal,3838">Nepal’s promiscuous political love triangle</a> between the Nepali Congress (NC), Maoist Centre and UML, one leader has just dumped his partner to go off with his ex.
In the latest break-up -make-up political saga, the Maoists and the UML joined hands on Monday for the third time since 2017 to form a new left-led coalition.
The shotgun wedding between Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal’s Maoist Centre and UML Chair K P Oli means the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/deuba-5-qh371fm4">NC’s Sher Bahadur Deuba</a> is now in the opposition, together with Madhav Nepal's CPN-Unified Socialist.
Dahal and Oli have revived their power-sharing deal to rotate the premiership for two years each till the next elections in 2027.&nbsp;
Besides the UML, the new coalition also includes Rabi Lamichhane’s Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) and Upendra Yadav’s Janata Samajwadi Party (JSP). CK Raut’s Janamat Party is also said to be in talks to join the government.&nbsp;
Although there had been simmering discontent between the NC and the Maoist for some weeks, few expected the breakup to happen so suddenly. The Maoists are a distant third largest party in Parliament, but were aggrieved by the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/coalition-collision-mzle2ns5">NC’s General Committee meeting last week</a> in which members called for the party to go it alone, and <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/unconventional-convention">reminded the Maoists of their war atrocities</a>. Many NC delegates felt that as the largest party, it should not be letting the Maoists ride its coat-tails. But now the biggest party in Parliament is in the opposition.&nbsp;
Monday morning was marked by a flurry of meetings between Prime Minister Dahal and Oli, Lamichhane and Yadav.&nbsp;
Even as the new coalition swore in a small new Council of Ministers, Nepal’s public sphere gave a loud yawn on social media. The first phase of the new Cabinet will include three leaders each from the Maoists, UML, and RSP.
Most commentators ridiculed the three parties reshuffling the cards again to bring out the same persona, and that this change in government would not make any difference to the country’s economic and other crises.&nbsp;
UML Chief Whip and former Health Minister Padam Giri joined the Council of Ministers on Monday. The Maoist Centre sent former Youth and Sports Minister Hit Bahadur Tamang to the Cabinet. <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/conflicting-interests">RSP vice-chair Dol Prasad Aryal</a>, who was briefly Labour Minister under the previous alliance between the Maoists and the RSP, was also sworn in.&nbsp;
There is already a disagreement over the choice of Home Minister with both the UML and RSP laying claim. RSP’s Lamichhane insisted on the post he once held but <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/the-rise-and-fall-of-rabi-lamichhane">had to give up because of the controversy over his American citizenship</a>. The RSP is the fourth largest in Parliament.
Dahal was appointed Prime Minister in December 2022 after breaking the five-party coalition led by his predecessor Sher Bahadur Deuba’s NC and with support from K P Oli’s UML.&nbsp;
Two months later, the Prime Minister got back together with NC and formed a new coalition government after forming a power-sharing deal between himself, Deuba, and CPN-Unified Socialist chair Madhav Kumar Nepal to divide up the premiership three ways for five years.&nbsp;
The partnership between Dahal and Deuba had already been fragile, but the straw that broke the camel’s back this time appears to have been the NC’s General Committee meeting in February, during which leaders of the dissident faction called for the party to forego political alliances with other parties in 2027, which Deuba agreed to.
The Maoists were already angered after the NC allied with the UML to elect Kedar Karki the Chief Minister of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/kosi-now-kathmandu-next">Kosi Province</a> after Karki and other members of NC refused to back the Maoist candidate for the position.&nbsp;
This was compounded after the coalition’s Maoist candidate from Kosi Champa Karki lost the recent National Assembly election to the UML candidate. The party was also said to have been growing uneasy about the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/unconventional-convention">increasing anti-secular sentiment within the NC</a>.
Dahal is said to have cited circumstances surrounding the Kosi and National Assembly elections as well as the discourse surrounding the NC-Maoist electoral partnership during the NC gathering as reasons for the breakup of the coalition.&nbsp;
Dahal’s newest political move might also have been a tactic to detract from criticism of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/nepal-gets-gold-medal-for-corruption">his government’s underperformance as well as the numerous corruption scandals</a> that have marked his premiership in which the guilty have got away.&nbsp;
Various members of the Cabinet including Physical Infrastructure and Transport Minister Prakash Jwala of the Unified Socialist was implicated in the Balkumari riot, Health and Population Minister Mohan Basnet of the NC in the procurement of surveillance equipment Teramocs, as well as the Maoist Minister of Culture, Tourism and Civil Aviation Sudan Kirati in private contract agreement of Lumbini’s Ramgram.&nbsp;
Prime Minister Dahal told a program on Monday afternoon rather melodramatically: “The country will be in turmoil until the day I die … Maoists are not the kind to be content with continuity, rather, we thrive on disorganisation.”
As it stands, the new coalition will not only affect politics at home but also be consequential to Nepal’s relationships with giant neighbours India and China.&nbsp;
China has always wanted Nepal’s left parties to stick together, and the US-India bloc have opposed it. The just dissolved coalition of the Maoists-NC was said to be better suited to India’s interests.

What just happened in Nepali politics?

<figure><img width="3600" height="1798" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20230208140220/63e3a1989c7e80680e0d708cjpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>A meeting of council of ministers this week. Photo: RSS</figcaption></figure>Nepal’s President is a ceremonial post with only residual powers. Why then is there such a tug-o-war going on about who gets to replace President Bidya Devi Bhandari after her five-year term expires on 13 March?
Why are the supreme men of the three main parties acting as if the sky will fall if they do not get their candidate to be elected the next president?
Because they know how much the President’s constitutional power can be abused to do the bidding of the prime minister, as has happened repeatedly in the past four years. Bhandari’s candidacy for president was strongly backed by K P Oli when he was prime minister, and she quickly gave her stamp of approval when Parliament was dissolved <a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-pm-oli-goes-it-alone/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">to stave off a challenge from Pushpa Kamal Dahal and Sher Bahadur Deuba.</a>
The move was stopped by the Supreme Court, and Deuba succeeded Oli as prime minister. But when he <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/coalition-set-to-snub-president-bhandari/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">tried to pass ordinances on the citizenship bill</a>, to allow parties to split, or give blanket pardon for war crimes, President Bhandari was not as prompt in signing them.   
After the November election, Oli pulled a fast one and got Dahal to defect from Deuba to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/left-led-coalition-upturns-nepal-politics/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">form the 7-party coalition</a> which is currently in power. In return for letting Dahal have a first go at being prime minister, Oli secured a deal to have the posts of President and Speaker of the House of Representatives.
But such is the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/nepals-political-economy/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">level of mistrust between him and Oli</a>, that Dahal soon started having misgivings about letting the UML have so much power. And because of Oli’s past behaviour, Dahal and Deuba feared that giving the UML all three posts of president, prime minister and speaker would make Oli all-powerful after two-and-half years.
As per the agreement with the Maoists, the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/conflicting-interests/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">UML already has its Devraj Ghimire as Speaker</a>, while the RSP got Indira Rana Magar in as Deputy Speaker. Now that a weighted electoral college of federal and provincial assembly members needs to elect a new President, the UML is in a collision course with the Maoists and NC.
The Election Commission has set the date for the election on 9 March, just two days before President Bhandari’s term is over. The NC says the election should be on 11 February, one month before the president steps down, as stipulated by the Constitution.
But more contentious than the date is whether the UML will maintain its support for the 7-party coalition if it does not get its candidate to be president.  
Dahal got Deuba to support the government<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepals-illiberal-democracy/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"> despite the NC being in the opposition</a>, reportedly with the assurance that a Congress nominee would get to be president. But Maoists and the NC combined do not have the numbers to do that. Having given his word to both the UML and the NC about the presidentship, Dahal is in a bind, and has said he is seeking “a national consensus” on a candidate.
This is where the high drama surrounding the Supreme Court verdict on 20 January about the RSP’s <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/the-rise-and-fall-of-rabi-lamichhane/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Rabi Lamichhane’s citizenship</a> becomes critical. Lamichhane was forced to step down as Home Minister and Deputy Prime Minister, but this week applied and got back his citizenship, and was reinstated as party boss.
There is now a move to file a case against him for breach of the Citizenship Act, and make him ineligible to hold office, while Lamichhane with backing from the UML, is trying to regain his Home Minister post. The UML’s claim for presidentship would be bolstered by Lamichhane continuing to be a powerful member of the Cabinet, and Oli’s game plan is to keep the coalition intact.
The NC is likely to field Krishna Sitaula or Ram C Paudel as president, while <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/baburam-bhattarais-4-point-formula/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Baburam Bhattarai</a> could also be a candidate from the Maoist party when it unites with the Nepal Socialist Party and becomes the CPN-Socialist. Oli appears to want President Bhandari to continue for a second term, and failing that may put forward Subhas Nembang.
The post of president should not involve such political wheeling-dealing. Ideally it is the turn of a Janjati or Dalit candidate to represent the spirit of inclusion enshrined in the Constitution. But more importantly, it should be someone who is a respected a-political person – and there are plenty of  Nepalis to choose from.

An unceremonious President

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2023020814028/63e39f649c7e80680e0d6fecjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1800" height="1041"/><figcaption>Photo: RSS</figcaption></figure>Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal is busy garnering <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/left-led-coalition-upturns-nepal-politics/">support from parties left, right and centre</a> for the 10 January vote of confidence he has to prove in the Federal Parliament. On Wednesday, he met Madhav Kumar Nepal of the Unified Socialist (US) for the first time since he broke away from the Nepali Congress (NC) led coalition.With his Maoist Centre (MC) being only the third biggest party with a mere 32 seats in Parliament, Dahal has had to give away powerful ministries: Finance to Bishnu Paudel of the UML, and Home to Rabi Lamichhane of the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP).And with less than a week before the confidence vote, there will be more wheeling and dealing behind the scenes. There is already talk of adding two more deputy prime ministers to specifically appease the far-right Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP) and Janata Samajbadi party (JSP).The Constitution sets a limit of 25 ministers in the Cabinet. But Dahal has to balance the disparate demands from members of his coalition for posts. He will exceed that limit, and for that will have to split some ministries.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/oli-dahal-political-deja-vu/">Oli-Dahal political déjà vu</a>, Santa Gaha MagarDahal may be prime minister, but it is <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/oli-dahal-political-deja-vu/">UML's K P Oli who is pulling the strings</a>. As the head of a high-level political committee, Oli will essentially be running a parallel government. And given the past bad blood between Oli and Dahal, there is every possibility of them falling out, and the coalition falling apart.The UML is the second largest party with 78 seats and has shrewdly gained the upper hand by playing the long game by agreeing to give Dahal the first go at premiership while bagging plum political positions for his party in the process.The committee Oli heads is an extension of this power-sharing deal between him and Dahal. The fact that the Prime Minister is the executive head of Nepal but will now have to adhere to a committee on high-level political decisions has essentially turned Dahal into a puppet of Oli’s making.But these power games have long stopped being of interest to the people. It was in fact the very frustration with political manipulation that voted <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/for-whom-the-bell-tolls/">independent collective RSP</a> to be the fourth largest party in the 2022 elections.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/for-whom-the-bell-tolls/">For whom the bell tolls</a>, Shristi KarkiBut regardless of who is in the coalition or who has an upper hand, the biggest challenge for the new government in 2023 is to save Nepal from an impending economic collapse.As of 4 January, the total expenditure of the Nepal government in the current fiscal year stands at Rs517 billion against its revenue of Rs362 billion. Nepal is unable to support the government’s spending, and herein lies the biggest problem.The additional ministries in the new government and their staff will only add to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepals-energy-policy-in-2023-and-beyond/">unnecessary expenses in security, infrastructure, salary and other administrative costs</a>. Increased ministries and staff doesn’t guarantee better service delivery either.The appointment of Bishnu Paudel of the UML as  finance minister has made businesses hopeful, but there is only so much he can do to rectify the blunder made by his Maoist predecessor, Janardan Sharma. On Wednesday, Nepal Rastra Bank, acting  a directive from Paudel and Prime Minister Dahal has revised its new guidelines pertaining to current capital loans to spur investment.Nepal’s imports decreased by 20.17% in the last five months compared to the same time period last year owing to the central bank’s ban on luxury items following rapidly declining foreign exchange reserves. This helped increase the reserves but also reduced revenue from imports, which continues to be the government’s biggest source of income.Read also:<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/new-year-challenge-to-new-government/"> New year challenge to new government</a>, EditorialIn the meantime, Nepal’s export in the same time period decreased by 34.61% to Rs6.7 trillion and trade deficit by 18.77%. But reduced demand for goods and services can lead to a recession. Year-on-year inflation is also high at 8.08%. In response, banks have  increased interest on loans to reach more than 15% which has discouraged businesses from investing.Moreover, leakage in revenue and lack of economic activities as well as investment in unproductive sectors continue to pose formidable challenges to Nepal’s stagnant economy which is propped by remittance money sent home by Nepalis ioverseas.Those jobs have allowed the government to get away with not providing youth with enough employment opportunities at home. But remittance is an unsustainable source, especially as Nepal needs its workforce at home for agriculture, construction and manufacturing, among others.Nepal needs to reduce its nonessential spending, stop revenue leakage in VAT and others, expedite development projects and promote industries and manufacturing at home. All of this will need to be <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/new-year-challenge-to-new-government/">facilitated by reformed policymaking</a>, not just directives.Instead, planners bring about ad-hoc schemes like <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/think-twice-about-bringing-your-mobile-to-nepal/">Mobile Device Management System</a> (MDMS) benefiting select businesses, further adding to the frustration of the common people and making service delivery even more difficult.Sonia Awale

Nepal's political economy

Nepali Congress (NC) President Gagan Thapa's candidacy in Sarlahi-4 has thrust this Madhes constituency into rare national focus. If Thapa wins and the NC emerges as the largest party, Sarlahi-4 will send Nepal's next prime minister to Parliament. But if he does not, Nepal’s grand old party will face the next years in the opposition to fight another day. There is a troubling paradox in Sarlahi-4 where the district bordering the Indian state of Bihar has been a battleground for national politicians with fierce electoral competition, all while remaining one of the region's most underserved and underdeveloped constituencies.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485.png" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485" data-rendition-name="original" width="1802" height="1276" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: MADHES PAHARA MEDIA</figcaption> </figure>  Ever since Mahant Thakur split from NC in 2008 to form the Tarai Madhes Loktantrik Party, the district has seen rotating political alliances and fragmented votes. Yet, despite 18 years of candidates promising change irrigation schemes remain incomplete, market access for farmers has not improved, unemployment is high.&nbsp; On election day, voters here marked their ballots with fingers stained by dye from the Holi festival the day before. The road leading to Barathawa Bazar was deserted for the most part, except for some youth riding in motorcycles. This is where the high-profile contest between Gagan Thapa and RSP nominee Amresh Singh is being staged. Among the other aspirants is 27-year-old UML candidate Amnish Yadav, the son of former MP Shiv Pujan Yadav. The Yadavs are a political family with considerable caste influence in the constituency. In 2022 Yadav’s daughter Madhumala Yadav received over 14,000 votes here, ranking third overall. Yadav was voted MP from the Maoist party, but defected to the UML this time. His other son is the chair of Sarlahi’s Ramnagar Rural Municipality. Sarhali-4 has 121,012 voters, and the Yadav is banking on the 27,000-strong Yadav vote bank. Sarlahi-4 voter Avishek Sah told us he wanted his vote to go to a young nominee and not someone who has been MP thrice already, like Amresh Singh. &nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10" data-rendition-name="original" width="1200" height="1600" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  To make local loyalties even more complicated, Amnish Yadav’s uncle, Harinder Yadav is an active NC member and walked side by side with Gagan Thapa during his door-to-door campaigns.&nbsp; The NC is betting on Thapa getting over 60% of the total votes. Amresh Singh’s tally could be limited to 10,000 votes — that too because of the nationwide RSP wave, and the popularity of its prime ministerial hopeful Balendra (Balen) Shah. “Amresh Singh lost his appeal when he played victim after he was denied a ticket by the NC in 2022,” Harinder Yadav says. Voters we spoke to here agreed with this assessment that Singh did not do much for the district once he got elected in the past, and being a part of the RSP seems to be his biggest asset. “The only reason I voted for Amresh Singh is because Balen is in RSP,” local voter Mahendra Gupta from Barathawa. &nbsp;“This is his last chance to return the people’s trust.”&nbsp; Gupta is aware of the institutional presence of the NC here. The party received the most votes in 2022 local elections, adding that the candidacy of someone as high-profile as Thapa is a positive sign for Sarlahi-4.&nbsp; Other voters like Ruby Gupta are rooting for both the NC and the RSP. “I will vote for Gagan and for Balen,” she says, adding that her FPTP vote will go to Thapa while her PR ballot would be for the RSP. RSP supporters are confident that their candidate will win big because even though many voters may not have openly voiced their support they still voted for the party and candidate. The Balen Wave was not limited to RSP voters, but also to UML candidate Yadav, who said in a gathering that he will be “the voters Balen” if they elect him. He touted his party’s track record in government, and largely campaigned on administrative efficiency, infrastructural expansion, and local service delivery. Amresh Singh ran on the RSP’s anti-establishment brand, promising to fight corruption, challenge traditional party politics, improve basic services such as education, health, jobs, and infrastructure, while pushing for stronger representation and development for Madhes.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="1200" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo:AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  Singh’s rivalry with his NC competitor goes beyond the ballot— he allegedly blames Thapa for being denied the NC ticket in 2022, which led him to win the election from Sarlahi-4 as an independent. &nbsp; For his part, Gagan Thapa focused on a more pragmatic development agenda that includes upgrading roads and irrigation, improving schools and hospitals, supporting farmers, and creating employment opportunities with improved governance at the centre. He also promised to build an engineering college in the constituency.&nbsp; Thapa also promoted his own anti-establishment image within the NC, repeatedly reminding voters on the campaign trail that he represents the aspirations of the youth.&nbsp; On Thursday, as voting progressed, there were violent disruptions in two centres where voting was briefly halted. But Sarlahi district police spokesperson Saroj Rai told Nepali Times that there were no major problems. Police in collaboration with the Nepal Army sent the ballot papers to the district’s counting stations, where the votes are expected to be tallied through the night and the winner announced Friday morning.

Sarlahi-4 nervously watches ballot count

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Nepal election live results

As this report is uploaded, the latest results in Nepal’s election show that the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) is headed for an even bigger sweep than most had predicted.
The RSP was leading by large margins in 49 of 165 constituencies, &nbsp;with the UML, NC and NCP trailing far behind. Prominent political figures from the old parties like K P Oli, Minwndra Prasad Rijal, Ishwar Pokhrel, Bishnu Prasad Poudel, Bimalendra Nidhi all seem headed for defeat.
It does look like the RSP’s bell election symbol is ringing right across Nepal — from cities to the remotest districts in the mountains and plains. The party’s blue colour is sweeping the land.
The Nepali people seem to have sent a clear message that they were throughly dissatisfied with the chronic failure of the three main parties to work in the national interest to create jobs and deliver development. It was also an expression of lingering outrage over the the 8 September massacre outside Parliament. &nbsp;
It now looks almost certain that Balendra Shah will get to be Nepal’s next, and youngest, prime minister. Hopefully he will be leading a cabinet of competent and honest technocrats. It remains to seen how the power equation between Shah and the RSP’s leader, Rabi Lamichhane will play out.
Lamichhane is out of jail on bail for fraud cases which he has called political vendetta by the previous regime. Both he and Shah are charismatic and ambitious. Their working relationship will determine Nepal's political stability and whether it can avoid the political cronyism of the past.
This election was not just about casting votes. It was about standing up to principles and a value system, and respecting the hopes and aspirations of Nepal’s youth. It to push for transparent government and against impunity — including for the gunning down of young Nepalis in cold blood.
<div class="embed-block"><iframe src="https://election-geo-dashboard.pages.dev/" width="100%" height="600" frameborder="0"> </iframe>Live election results as winners of candidates are announced.</div>
CAN DO MAN
Shah got mixed reviews as mayor. He was impulsive and ad hoc, but most people inKathmandu and beyond liked his can-do attitude and unconventional style which stood in sharp contract to the legacy leaders. Over his three year mayorship he showed more maturity and planning capacity.&nbsp;
But he always ran headlong into opposition from the federal government over his urban planning and other initiatives to make Kathmandu more liveable. Coming from a civil and structural engineering background, he was involved in building low-cost housing after the 2015 earthquake.
But his public persona is more tied to his irreverent rap lyrics that stood up for the marginalised underprivileged in society, while exposing the high-handedness and apathy of the state. But this also exposed contradictions because he also used his own municipal guards to beat and chase away street vendors and squatters.
But there is no doubt that a combination of the sharp messaging in his rap videos amplified by the algorithms of social media ignited Nepal’s youth to rise up. It was more about optics and emotion than policy and strategy.
He studied Kathmandu district for five years, visiting experts in every field before announcing his independent candidacy for mayor in 2022. Many like me in his own constitunecy did not know who he was and where he came from.
He is a year younger than my architect son, and I saw in him a reflection of my own son’s commitment to serving the nation. I voted for him to be mayor despite his sometimes erratic behaviour, which could be attributed to his youth.
The best sign of his strategic planning, which unsettled septuagenarian and octogenarian politicians, is the he did not grab the first easy option of becoming prime minister in September when GenZ activists offered him the post.&nbsp;
Joining RSP was a masterstroke, as was his challenge to Oli in Jhapa to project national branding. He needed a party platform and Lamichhane needed a popular prime ministerial persona since he himself could not hold the post.
Shah has shown the capacity to take risks when he believes the value justifies the action for the country. Now, he will have to show more strategic thinking on a national scale, as well as understand the delicate geopolitics of Nepal.&nbsp;
He must rise above the kind of crude social media posts that earned him followers on X, but did nothing to erase his erratic and impulsive image.&nbsp;
Some assume that behind his trademark RayBan shades is a closet dictator, and his past remarks about Hitler are still up on social media. He has in the past shown impatience with criticism, unleashing supporters on social media to troll detractors.&nbsp;
Even so, the public seems willing to place their hope on an educated young man with integrity and a proven record for planning at the helm. By tomorrow it will be clear whether the hope Nepalis have held has been fulfilled, and the coming years will show if the RSP will lead Nepalis to a better future.
The voters seem to have shown the door even to the NC despite the fact that under Gagan Thapa, the party had turned a new leaf. A strong government under Prime Minister Balendra Shah heading a carefully selected cabinet and a strong opposition of the NC, UML and other parties for check and balance may be just what we need for a stable Nepal.&nbsp;
Nepalis have collectively always shown maturity in elections. This time they have given a resounding endorsement for integrity and for good governance.

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Sarlahi-4 nervously watches ballot count

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