<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121152/636b950e9c7e80680e06f237jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1802" height="1160"/><figcaption>On 25 June, China inaugurated a 435km section of the Lhasa-Nyingchi Electrified High-speed Rail. The ‘bullet train’ will have a top speed of 160 km/h and bring Chengdu closer to the Nepal border when completed in 2025. Photos: Xinhuanet</figcaption></figure>The prospect of a trans-Himalayan connectivity has historically been a sensitive geopolitical issue since it concerns the region’s main rivals: China and India.Even back in 1961, when Nepal and China signed an agreement to build a highway linking Kathmandu to Lhasa there were misgivings about Beijing’s strategic motive. India and China were about to go to war along the Himalaya, and the Cold War was at its height. King Mahendra allayed those fears by famously saying: “Communism does not travel by taxi.”Sixty years later, similar suspicions have surfaced as China moves full steam ahead to connect its Tibetan Autonomous Region with new bullet train links that could ultimately be extended to the Nepal border, and even Kathmandu as a part of its <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/bri-and-trans-himalayan-connectivity/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/bri-and-trans-himalayan-connectivity/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1625121532408000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGsJC2izcsoXaRQZ1rXMJB8GHIFng">Belt Road Initiative (BRI).</a>On 25 June, China made a high-profile inauguration of a 435km section of the Lhasa-Nyingchi Electrified High-speed Rail (HSR). The ‘bullet train’ will have a top speed of 160 km/h and pass through 47 tunnels and 121 bridges along the Tsang Po (Brahmaputra) River.A feat of modern engineering, 90% of the HSR lies above 3,000 meters above sea level and will be a part of the new Sichuan-Tibet Railway. When connected to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/new-china-nepal-rail-corridor/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/new-china-nepal-rail-corridor/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1625124500954000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEyws75pYHg2KSFVZyAFqc62CWxfQ">Kerung via Lhasa and Xigatse</a>, the train could put Lhasa within six hours distance and Chengdu within 19 hours from the Nepal border.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121152/636b95119c7e80680e06f238jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="998" height="1080"><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121152/636b95159c7e80680e06f239jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1796" height="1262"><figcaption>The Lhasa-Nyingchi Electrified High-speed Rail passes through 47 tunnels and 121 bridges along the Tsang Po (Brahmaputra) River.</figcaption></figure>While China makes rapid progress on rail connectivity, on the Nepal side of the border talk of a trans-Himalayan railway is only <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/dream-train/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/dream-train/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1625124500954000&amp;usg=AFQjCNF-Q3gse9pq9mOu-izUhn7mWzSz0w">political tokenism</a>. Successive governments in Kathmandu have not even been able to maintain existing highways to Kodari and Rasuwagadi to international standards.But even the Chinese side seems to be daunted by the cost and sheer magnitude of a trans-Himalayan railway, especially its engineering challenge. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/which-way-will-the-tibet-nepal-railway-go/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/which-way-will-the-tibet-nepal-railway-go/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1625124500954000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEh1zY0k6ZCTdCAY7EM8xjx1AN_3Q">Nepali Times had revealed in 2019</a> the content of a Chinese pre-feasibility study that proposed an alignment from Kerung to Kathmandu through a series of tunnels below Langtang National Park.Chinese engineers found the gradient from the Tibetan Plateau to the low valleys in Nepal to be too great, and there was also the need to avoid building a railway inside Nepal’s protected areas in Langtang, Rolwaling and Mt Everest regions.“Technically this will be one of the world’s toughest railways to construct,” said train engineer Paribesh Parajuli of Nepal’s Department of Railways who was educated in China, and a consultant for the study.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121152/636b95199c7e80680e06f23ajpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1524" height="1204"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121152/636b951c9c7e80680e06f23bjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1276" height="534">The Kerung-Kathmandu rail track will be 170km long, and a third of its length could tunnel below the Himalaya to reach the outskirts of Kathmandu. The study estimated the project to cost 38 billion yuan ($5.5 billion).A report in Railway Standard Design last week and quoted in the Hong Kong-based <a href="https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3138814/china-nepal-rail-link-may-go-through-protected-himalayan-park" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3138814/china-nepal-rail-link-may-go-through-protected-himalayan-park&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1625124500954000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEuvsceBoKKGJ_LmtDwz1niCzI0Pw">South China Morning Post</a> confirmed that the proposed alignment would include 30km of tunnels beneath Langtang National Park.Liang Dong, a lead engineer with the China Railway First Survey and Design Institute Group will be presenting his report to the Chinese and Nepal governments.He said the Himalayan Tunnel route from Kerung (Gyirong) to Kathmandu would be more challenging and costly, but other routes were rejected either because the gradients were too steep, they went through protected areas, or were geologically unstable and exposed to glacial lake outburst floods due to climate change.The possibility of trans-Himalayan connectivity was first mooted as far back as 1973 by Mao Zedong in a meeting with King Birendra in Beijing. Since then, China built the Qinghai-Tibet Railway connecting Lhasa to Xining, and is now working on the Sichuan-Tibet Railway to Chengdu and Kunming.The Qinghai-Tibet Railway was extended from Lhasa to Xigatse in 2014, and in three years those tracks will reach Kerung on the Nepal border, only 70km in a straight line north of Kathmandu.Even though it is just a secondary route in China’s ambitious BRI, Nepal could gain valuable access to Chinese seaports and trade centres, especially as relations with long-time trade partner India blow hot and cold. Construction on the HSR in Tibet has gone ahead despite the pandemic.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121152/636b951f9c7e80680e06f23cjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1802" height="1124"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121152/636b95229c7e80680e06f23djpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="936">The possibility of extending this train track across the Himalaya to Kathmandu had captured the Nepali public’s imagination ever since Prime Minister <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/a-great-march/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/a-great-march/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1625124500954000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHGibQBVN4D4t6d-EHleChPgkVuRg">K P Oli and Chinese Premier Li Keqiang</a> committed to exploring the project five years ago.The arrival of the railway line in Kerung possibly in three-year’s time will bring that dream closer to reality, but for that the Nepali side has <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-china-agreements-are-stuck/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-china-agreements-are-stuck/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1625124500954000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHNvV9WjjfmrIZ2cXB6LDDdz-AvxA">to show more commitment</a> to the project.So far, Nepal’s action has been limited to participating in discussions and signing MoUs. Framework agreements were signed in 2017 for the Trans-Himalayan Multidimensional Connectivity Network, and President Bidya Devi Bhandari even attended a summit in 2019 of the BRI Forum.China had committed to financing Detailed Project Reports (DPR) for a 72-km rail line between Kathmandu and Rasuwagadi during <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/trans-himalayan-handshake/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/trans-himalayan-handshake/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1625124500954000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGmkW3V3lGbvBXthCBsH4ktk9Trxw">President Xi Jinping’s visit in October 2019</a>, but since then, government planners have blamed the pandemic for delays in taking plans forward.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121152/636b95259c7e80680e06f23ejpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1594" height="1060"><figcaption>Rasuwagadi on Nepal's border with China. Photo: Nabin Baral</figcaption></figure>In fact, no funding was sourced for DPRs, says Suresh Paudel, Deputy Secretary of Development Assistance Coordination and Quality Branch of the Ministry of Physical Infrastructure and Transportation.“China showed readiness in supporting detailed survey designs, but a budget has not been set so far,” Paudel says.Nepal has already lost time twiddling thumbs and waiting for China’s support, even while China aims to finish its Sichuan-Lhasa rail line by 2030.Even without the delays on the Nepal side, a Kathmandu-China connection will prove to be costly and difficult. Nepal has no railway infrastructure to speak of, and in any case would be unable to bear the financial cost of building a difficult and expensive tunnel across the Himalaya.

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No light at end of trans-Himalayan train tunnel

<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/8-9.jpg" data-elementor-open-lightbox="no"></a><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108151124/636a66e89c7e80680e0599afjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1163"/>Ten years ago, at the beginning of the last decade, Nepalis looked forward with optimism to a country with greater connectivity — at least a railway or two, smart cities, more energy sources and <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/A-great-leap-forward,198" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a great leap forward</a> in infrastructure. The war had ended, a new constitution was being drafted and there was optimism about the future in 2010.Fast forward 10 years and many of those projects have not materialised, while even the ones nearing completion, like <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/page/melamchi-coming-to-kathmandu" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Melamchi</a>, Pokhara Airport, or the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/our-land-is-us-we-are-our-land/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kathmandu-Tarai Expressway</a>, are delayed. The 2015 earthquake and Blockade, as well as endemic corruption, were blamed. But it was mainly failure of political leadership.Read Also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/trilateral-trains/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Trilateral Trains,</a> EditorialYet, many of these projects and others planned for the coming decade are more ambitious than ever. The government hopes to start on a new international airport in <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/economy-ecology-of-nijgad-airport/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nijgad</a>, upgrade Kathmandu airport, build two highway tunnels to Rasuwagadi, start a feasibility study on the Kerung-Kathmandu railway, expedite <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/planned-new-east-west-railroad-and-expressway-threaten-the-Chitwan-National-Park,1079" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the East-West Railway</a>, and add at least <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/decentralising-hydropower/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">10,000MW of hydropower</a> to the grid in the next decade.Nepalis have got used to delays and disappointment, and there is a ‘we will believe it when we see it’ attitude about the megaprojects in the pipeline. A government that cannot even upgrade the Nagarkot road or finish the 5km stretch from Chabahil to Gokarna, it is felt, has no right promising a $6billion new airport by clearing native forest.Read Also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/an-energy-windfall-for-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">An energy windfall for Nepal</a>, Kushal GurungEarlier this year, Finance Minister Yubaraj Khatiwada promised that the government would complete the feasibility study of the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/which-way-will-the-tibet-nepal-railway-go/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kerung-Kathmandu railway</a> and begin construction by 2022. This came without a definite budget or financial modality, still the Nepali engineer on the project, Paribesh Parajuli says it will happen within the coming decade.“The detailed project report and feasibility study for the Kerung-Kathmandu Railway will take more than two years but we are hopeful that it will be done within the given timeframe,” Parajuli told Nepali Times. “If everything goes as planned, the railway should be completed within nine years of the start of construction.”Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=38023&amp;preview_nonce=024823c344&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Towards 2030</a><a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=38038&amp;preview_nonce=e8166bf726&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Another decade to get it right,</a> EditorialAnother faraway project is the 945km East-West Railway. To span 24 Tarai districts from Mechi to Mahakali, it is expected to be completed by the middle of the coming decade. In fact, 30km of the track-bed from Bardibas to Nijgad is scheduled to be finished next year. This line will connect with the 69km Janakpur-Jayanagar-Kurtha line that will start operating in March 2020. Also being surveyed is the <a href="nepalitimes.com/nepali-times-polls/do-you-think-kathmandu-raxaul-rail-will-ever-be-built/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Raxaul-Kathmandu Railway</a>.Out of the 22 <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/communist-capital/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">national pride projects</a>, 17 are scheduled for completion in the next 5 years, according to the National Planning Commission's Approach Paper. Sushil Bhatta of the NPC says: “The government is focusing on giving priority to certain projects, making sure that resources are effectively and efficiently utilised in order to meet the targets that have been outlined.”Read Also:<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=38061&amp;preview_nonce=012fb23553&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nepal in the 2020s,</a> Sewa Bhattarai<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=38073&amp;preview_nonce=5c5e53a600&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">How will Nepal develop in the next decade,</a> Sonia AwaleIn the next five-year periodic plan, the government is prioritising completion of projects that have already begun, allocating resources on the basis of the progress achieved and the significance of the projects to the economy.Bhatta says: “We want to give priority to result-oriented national pride projects and those that help enhance economic growth.”The government is determined to complete Nijgad International Airport in the coming decade despite strong protests from environmental activists and criticism that it is too grandiose. Bhairawa and <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/Pokhara-waits-for-take-off,4136" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Pokhara</a> airports will be operational in 2020 and 2021, but whether they will act as alternative airports and reduce congestion in Kathmandu is debatable.Read Also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/does-nepal-need-a-4th-international-airport/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Does Nepal need a 4th international airport?,</a> Om Astha RaiDuring this year’s <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/invest-in-investment/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nepal Investment Summit</a> there were numerous proposals for smart cities in Hetauda — integrated urban development programs that were built on digital frameworks, improved technology, energy-efficient apartments, electric vehicle charging stations and bus rapid transit.Between 2020-2030 there will also be explosive growth in the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-telecom-or-go/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">telecommunication sector</a> with the introduction of 4G and 5G networks. Anand Khanal at the Nepal Telecommunications Authourity says, “In the next decade, we will see blanket coverage of mobile broadband in the country. The infrastructure will be established so that 100% of the public will have access to the internet and broadband service. “Nepal hopes to become a <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/guest-editorial/muddy-road-middle-income,928" target="_blank" rel="noopener">middle-income country by 2030</a>, and the country needs to invest more than $1billion annually on infrastructure development to reach this goal.Bhatta says: “To achieve our 5-year goals and even 25-year goals, we need to streamline our projects, strategically invest in those projects and push for a paradigm shift in the way Nepal manages development.”Read Also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/calendar-of-economic-change/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Calendar of economic change</a>, Om Astha Rai

Nepal in 2030

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108131140/636a4e399c7e80680e04fca3jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000"/><figcaption>TRAIN A COMIN': Kerung (Gyirong) used to be a staging post during the 19th century Nepal-Tibet wars.</figcaption></figure>Tashi Sherpa runs the only teashop in Rasuwa Gadi on the Nepal side of the border, 170km north of  Kathmandu. Nearby, dozens of trucks carrying imported Chinese goods cross the Bhote Kosi into Nepal.Sherpa has heard that a railroad to Kathmandu is also planned, but she will only believe it when she sees it. “Dream train,” she calls it.Read also:<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=29461&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Which way will the Tibet-Nepal railway go?</a>, Ramesh Bhushal<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=29408&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Trilateral Trains</a>, Editorial But what Tashi Sherpa does not know is that a feasibility study conducted last year has proposed a rail route under the mountains instead of along the river, thus  bypassing Rasuwa Gadi altogether. People along the highway may not even see the <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/headline/Nepal-India-China-rail,3092" target="_blank" rel="noopener">train</a> because most of the track will be in tunnels drilled beneath Langtang, Gosiankunda and Shivapuri to Tokha near Kathmandu.Truck driver Balaram Rimal sips tea at Sherpa’s shop as he waits to cross into China. He says: “All this talk of trains is nonsense. First they should fix this scary road.”The railway forms part of China’s Belt Road Initiative and will be an extension of the <a href="https://nepalitimes.atavist.com/the-tibet-train" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Qinghai-Tibet Railway</a> from Xigatse to Kerung and on to Kathmandu. However, crossing the Himalaya through a series of long tunnels will not just be an engineering feat, but will cost at least $5.5 billion.The Chinese have built an imposing 9-storey building at the border that looks like a shopping mall and houses a well-equipped customs and immigration office. The Nepal side is a tin shed flying a forlorn Nepali flag. <a href="https://nepalitimes.atavist.com/bordering-on-helplessness" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The 2015 earthquake destroyed the Nepal border post,</a> and its reconstruction has been delayed due to a dispute with the contractor.Finjo Lopchan runs Potala Guest House near the border, and sums it all up: “How can a country that can’t even put up a building, drill a train tunnel through the mountains? My head spins when people talk about railways. Shameless government.”

Dream train

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108131140/636a4e709c7e80680e04fcb6jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000"/><figcaption>Dozens of trucks carrying imported Chinese goods cross the Bhote Kosi into Nepal this week. The Nepali border town of Rasuwa Gadi (pictured below) on the Bhote Kosi river. Photos: NABIN BARAL</figcaption></figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108131140/636a4e749c7e80680e04fcb7jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1400" height="933">Till not too long ago, a trans-Himalayan railway sounded like science fiction. Now, with the proposed 100km long tunnel under <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/the-reincarnation-of-a-holy-valley/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Langtang National park</a>, it sounds even more futuristic.The rapid strides China has taken in extending its national railway network makes drilling under the world’s highest mountains seem no longer technically impossible, but is it economically viable?Read also: <a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=29395&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Dream Train</a>, Ramesh Bhushal <a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=29408&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Trilateral Trains</a>, Editorial A pre-feasibility study of a railway into Nepal from Tibet carried out by a Chinese team in 2018 suggests that it would be an engineering feat and very expensive, but not an impossible task.“Technically this will be one of the world’s toughest railways to construct,” says Paribesh Parajuli, the only train engineer at Nepal’s Department of Railways, who was educated in China and is a consultant for the study.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108131140/636a4e779c7e80680e04fcb8jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="826" height="680"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Despite Nepali politicians making wild promises about the imminent arrival of a Tibet train and ensuing public anticipation, because of the technical and cost factors the Chinese have sought to dampen some of the enthusiasm.Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.atavist.com/the-tibet-train" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Tibet Train</a>, Om Astha RaiThe feasibility study has not yet been made public, but is said to list ‘six extremes’ that will be challenging: topography, weather, hydrology, tectonics, and cost.And despite speculation that the railway alignment will follow the Bhote Kosi River across the Himalaya to Nuwakot, the study actually lays out a much more adventurous course under Langtang National Park, below Gosainkunda and Shivapuri National Park to enter Kathmandu Valley at Tokha. Stations will be located at bridge points where the tunnels emerge at Langtang Khola and Pati Bhanjyang.The gradient required to descend from 4,000m on the Tibetan Plateau to 1,400m above Kathmandu is so steep that engineers have proposed drilling through the mountains with 98% of the tracks on the Nepal side inside tunnels.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2bCrriCNMqoSays Parajuli: “If the railroad follows the proposed tunnel route under the mountains, the towns along the existing highway to Rasuwa will not even be seeing trains.”Although drilling under the mountains will minimise environmental impact in two national parks, the tunnels will traverse the Main Central Thrust faultline of the Himalaya. Mitigating earthquake risk will push the total cost even higher than a normal tunnel project.Preliminary estimates put the cost of just the 170km Kerung to Kathmandu section of the railway at 38 billion yuan ($5.5 billion). Even though only 30% of the length from Menbu to Kathmandu is in Nepal, it will account for almost half the cost of the project because of the required tunneling.Despite these challenges, Nepal’s railway dream moved closer to reality after the project was listed as one of the 64 to be considered under China’s BRI during the <a href="https://www.chinadialogue.net/article/show/single/en/11212--Green-Belt-and-Road-in-the-spotlight" target="_blank" rel="noopener">second Belt and Road Forum</a> in Beijing in April.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108131140/636a4e7a9c7e80680e04fcb9jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1400" height="933"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108131140/636a4e7d9c7e80680e04fcbajpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000">Nepal is now seeking a grant from China to construct the railway, but Beijing is <a href="https://thehimalayantimes.com/nepal/nepal-china-railway-project-will-be-executed-chinese-ambassador-to-nepal-hou-yanqi/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reticent</a>, hence recent comments by Chinese Ambassador Hou Yanqi urging Nepalis not to jump the gun.The Nepal government has not allocated any money for the Tibet railway in this year’s budget. But officials at <a href="http://www.mopit.gov.np/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nepal’s Infrastructure and Transport</a> ministry say just a detailed engineering study for the Kerung-Kathmandu section of the railway will cost an <a href="https://kathmandupost.ekantipur.com/printedition/news/2019-03-19/rs-35b-and-two-years-cost-of-detailed-project-report-of-kathmandu-kerung-rail.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">estimated </a>five times the Nepal’s total railway budget for next year.Even so, Finance Minister Yubaraj Khatiwada seems upbeat. He has even announced the date of the start of construction: “We will complete the detailed project report and feasibility study and start construction work on the Kerung-Kathmandu railway in the next two years.”The Chinese do not seem to be in such a rush. The Qinghai-Tibet railway reached Xigatse in Tibet in 2014. At the pace of construction, it was  scheduled to arrive on the border in Kerung by 2020, but the Chinese have reportedly pushed that back to 2025.Both the Chinese and Nepal governments have denied that loan financing for the project will push Nepal into a debt trap, as the Americans have been warning.“The main thing is how projects are selected, whether that is done on the possible rate of return, and the pay back plan,” says Foreign Minister Pradeep Gyawali.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cX-C2_E-AQMWhile the minister could not answer questions about what Nepal would export to China by train, Prime Minister K P Oli once speculated it could be mineral water, for which he was widely ridiculed. Mineral water is already a multi-billion dollar <a href="https://www.thethirdpole.net/en/2015/10/29/chinas-bottled-water-industry-to-exploit-asias-water-tower-4/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">industry in Tibet</a>, so it would be like coals to Newcastle.Economic analysts say the railway makes sense only if Nepal can fill the wagons with its goods for the return trip. While imports from China increased by about 40% in 2018, exports from Nepal to China fell by 30%, with the country’s trade deficit reaching about US$12 billion last year – equal to nearly half of the country’s total GDP.Ambassador Hou has tried to allay fears. “The BRI is not a ‘debt trap’ that some countries may fall into, but an ‘economic pie’ that benefits the local population,” she wrote in a recent <a href="https://myrepublica.nagariknetwork.com/news/new-era-new-opportunities/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">opinion piece</a> in the Nagarik newspaper.The real question is not just who will pay for the railway, but also whether it will pay for itself. The tunnel alignment will push up costs, and because it misses all major urban areas along the way like Trisuli and Syabrubesi, it is unlikely to benefit local populations.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rLURhJkDeVcNarayan Das Dongol, 76, plays with his granddaughter in Tokha village on the northern rim of Kathmandu Valley. His house will be near the proposed terminal of the Kerung-Kathmandu railway, and he has heard rumours about a train coming. There is still confusion about the exact route the tracks will take, but land prices here have already soared six-fold to Rs3 million for a 32 sq m patch in anticipation.In Bidur of Nuwakot, Mayor Sanju Pandit insists the train should go through his town, adding: “I have heard that the railway will cross our town, but we have not been consulted or informed about it at all.”One worry is that regular cargo trains between China and Nepal will increase wildlife trafficking not just of endangered species from Nepal, but also India. Nepal would be even more of a transit for contraband like tiger skins, rhinos horns, pangolins, sandalwood.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108131140/636a4e819c7e80680e04fcbbjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1400" height="933"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>On the Nepal side, there are zero preparations in place for the Tibet railroad, but even the proposed east-west Tarai railway does not seem to be going anywhere. In the decade since it was set up, Nepal’s Department of Railways has yet to hire a fulltime railway engineer.The new 34km railway from Bihar to Nepal is supposed to start operations next month with a hired train and driver from India. But you cannot fault Nepal for dreaming big: the government plans to construct 4,000km of railways in the next two decades.This article was originally published by <a href="https://www.thethirdpole.net/en/2019/06/18/china-nepal-railway-fantasy-or-reality/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Third Pole</a>.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108131140/636a4e849c7e80680e04fcbcjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108131140/636a4e879c7e80680e04fcbdjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000">Timeline: Nepal’s BRI railway2017 – Nepal and China sign MoU on the BRI in Beijing.2018 – Nepal forms two committees headed by the foreign secretary and finance secretary to propose projects for China to fund under BRI.2018 – Nepal’s prime minister, K.P Oli, visits China and signs on 14 projects including in cooperation in railways.2018 – Pre-feasibility study for the Kerung- Kathmandu rail by a Chinese team.2019 – The Nepal-China railway listed as part of the Trans-Himalayan connectivity network at the second BRI Forum in Beijing in April.2019 – In budget speech, government declares construction will start in two years without allocating appropriate budget for a detailed study.

Which way will the Tibet-Nepal railway go?

<figure><img width="1400" height="920" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108131140/636a4e509c7e80680e04fcabjpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Illustration: BHANU BHATTARAI</figcaption></figure>The trans-Himalayan railroad has been in the news lately. And like everything else in Nepal, it is difficult to separate hot air from a cool breeze. The Chinese cannot hide their irritation anymore about Nepal’s politicians day-dreaming. Ambassador Hou Yanqi was as blunt as a diplomat can be at a recent interaction in which she said (we paraphrase): “Not so fast.”Read also: <a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=29461&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Which way will the Tibet-Nepal railway go?</a>, Ramesh Bhushal<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=29395&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Dream Train</a>, Ramesh BhushalThe extension of the Qinghai-Tibet Railway to Nyalam and Kerung, then onwards to Kathmandu, Lumbini and the Indian border constitutes a part of Beijing’s <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=15892#.XRsdKz8za70" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Medium and Long-term Railway Network Plan</a>. But laying train tracks on the rugged terrain of the Tibetan Plateau has been a daunting challenge even for the Chinese.After the Lhasa line was connected to Xigatse and beyond, it was expected to reach <a href="https://nepalitimes.atavist.com/the-tibet-train" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kerung</a> on the Nepal border by the next year, but now it looks like it will be pushed back five more years. Yet Nepal’s hyperbolic politicians talk about it as if the locomotives will be chugging in by next Dasain.The railway to Nepal was listed as one of the 64 Belt Road Initiative (BRI) projects at the second Belt and Road Forum in Beijing in April. The ambitious BRI aims to improve China’s overland connectivity to countries across its western border in Central Asia and beyond to even Europe. The Nepal link is not directly on the main line, but part of a <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/thebrief/2017/05/12/nepal-joins-new-silk-road/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">sub-Silk Road</a> that could, in the future, offer an alternative to two-way trade between China and India, which today follows a maritime route through the Strait of Malacca.China is India’s largest source of imports, and it is in Beijing’s geostrategic interest to find land alternatives to choke points on its sea routes to the Indian Ocean. Two-way trade between India and China is now nearly $100 billion a year and a stable land corridor would be in both the countries’ interest. Besides that, China wants to integrate its southwestern regions of Tibet and Xinjiang with central and southern Asia.  But what does Nepal get out of the proposed rail link? First of all, theoretically, we can have <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/yam-between-3-boulders/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">cheap and reliable alternative access</a> to sea ports. That Nepal needs this trade bypass is a no-brainer considering the five-month Indian Blockade of our southern border in 2015. Despite its initial cost, train travel is cheaper and environmentally much cleaner. A railway track through the mountains could interlink trade and tourist travel between the two countries, and be a catalyst for other train lines within Nepal. Nepal’s politicians, including Prime Minister K P Oli, came to power riding the nationalist wave after the Blockade, and promised better access to the north. But one just has to see the slow progress of the road on our side of the Rasuwa border today to realise that it was all talk. Whatever progress there has been in upgrading the checkpoints in Rasuwa and <a href="https://nepalitimes.atavist.com/bordering-on-helplessness" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kodari</a>, or the dry port in Larcha, are being built by China in our territory.The biggest uncertainty about the trans-Himalayan railroad is who is going to pay for it, and if it will pay for itself. The 170km stretch from Kerung to Kathmandu will cost at least $5.5 billion. It is unlikely the Chinese will just gift the railroad, and a loan could be a debt trap. Unless Nepal’s exports to China rise dramatically, this railway will not make much economic sense.Nepal’s trade deficit with China is expected to grow to $15 billion this year, as imports rose by 40% and exports fell by 30%. A cargo train makes sense if we can use the wagons to send goods back to China, not just to buy more.China used its comparative advantage in the past to produce labour-intensive goods which it exported worldwide to buy knowhow. Now, China has attained an income level where some of those goods can be produced more cheaply elsewhere: like Nepal. In the 1990s, tax rebates attracted multinationals to set up manufacturing bases in Nepal for export to India. We do not have to reinvent the wheel.Greater connectivity between India and China through Nepal, however, could open a new trans-Himalayan trade corridor which can offer Nepal another chance to be a manufacturing base for specialised products to be sold to both our giant neighbours. But for that, we need a strategic vision and pragmatic policies. Nepal’s strategy should be to serve as a land bridge between India and China and get these two giant locomotives to pull in the same direction.10 years ago this weekNepali Times <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/issue/458" target="_blank" rel="noopener">#458 of 3-9 July 2009</a> dealt with the Constitution deadline being only 11 months away, and the political parties paralysed by wrangling. Our<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=16083#.XR7YWeszaUk" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> editorial</a> blamed the fecklessness of the democratic parties and the Maoists wanting to go it alone:‘D Day for the completion of the new Constitution is now only 11 months away. The Constituent Assembly’s self-imposed deadline has been pushed back over and over again. Maoist chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal said after his Politburo meeting this week that his party will lead a national government. How that will be possible considering the non-Maoist parties are on the other side is difficult to imagine. Maybe the strategy is to split the big parties, but then domestic and international geo-politics are both against them. What the Maoists couldn’t achieve with armed struggle and elections, they will now try to do by mobilising a mass movement on the streets.’<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/issue/458"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108131140/636a4e539c7e80680e04fcacjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="800" height="1242"></a>

TRILATERAL TRAINS

<img width="600" height="430" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107141112/636904a79c7e80680e037d35jpeg.jpg" alt=""/>With a six-lane highway joining the city to Kohalpur, plans to upgrade to a Metropolis, international flights starting soon from its expanded airport, a railway station connecting to India, and new hotels and casinos coming up, <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=5885#.W4fVwM4zaUk" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nepalganj</a> feels like a town on the move.Adding to the excitement is the city’s can-do mayor, <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=10282#.W4J_8GaB1TY of the RPP" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-wplink-url-error="true">Dhawal Shumsher Rana</a>, who was re-elected last year and immediately set about improving Nepalganj’s crumbling roads, drainage and its poor image.The city suffered an economic setback when it lost out to Butwal as the capital of Province 5, but Mayor Rana is lobbying hard to declare Nepalganj a Metropolitan City by merging with Kohalpur.“Come back in a few more months, you will see a different Nepalganj,” says Rana proudly as he supervised a road widening on a recent rainy Saturday.Feeding the boom is Nepalganj’s emergence in recent years as one of the most popular gateways to <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=5392#.W4fXhs4zaUk" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kailash in Tibet</a> for Indian pilgrims. (See map). Devotees from all over the world travel to one of Hinduism’s holiest sites, and the easiest route is through Nepalganj. Pilgrims also fly via Kathmandu and Lhasa, cross at Kerung, or go via India.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GprdlTsLdck&amp;feature=youtu.beThe Nepalganj route entails taking a plane to <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/northwestern-tip-of-nepal-Humla,3430" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Simikot</a> , changing to a helicopter to Hilsa on the Tibet border, and then driving by SUV to the sacred Lake Mansarovar. Half the 15,000 Indian pilgrims to Tibet every year take the Nepalganj route, and this week, hotels here were full of pilgrims waiting for flights to Simikot delayed by bad weather.“Indians prefer to go via Nepal because the trip is smoother, the routes through India are very basic,” says Yash Thakur of Explore India Tours, which organises pilgrimages for Hindus from India, South Africa, Mauritius, Fiji, the United States and Britain. “If there is more support from Nepal, we can take 20,000 more pilgrims to Kailash via Nepal every year.”Prakash Shrestha of Explore Kailash has been arranging pilgrimage packages since 1996, and says if infrastructure bottlenecks are fixed, a lot more Indian tourists would prefer the Nepal route because they can also visit Pashupati or <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/going-to-jomsom-in-the-off-season,3878" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Muktinath</a>.“There aren’t enough helicopters, the weather delays flights, Nepalganj has good hotels, but there are few facilities in Simikot or Hilsa,” says Shrestha.There is also anticipation in Nepalganj about Buddha Air flights from Delhi starting in January which are expected to bring Indian tourists to the city’s new casinos, as well as Indian trekkers to Rara and <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/page/Stairway-to-heaven-Dolpo-trek" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Dolpo</a>, which have air connections from Nepalganj.“Nepalganj is going to be a multiple hub. We are going to expand Nepalganj airport, extend the runway and apron and upgrade the terminal building,” says Mayor Dhawal Rana, “and in a few years we will also have a railway station connecting to India.”

kerung

No light at end of trans-Himalayan train tunnel

Nepal in 2030

Dream train

Which way will the Tibet-Nepal railway go?

TRILATERAL TRAINS

Nepalganj gets moving