<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114131156/63723b6c9c7e80680e0c95bcjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000"/><figcaption>Farmers in Bihar, across the border from Nepal, tending to their parched fields (left). Climate change will not just lead to droughts and floods, but also unsurvivable heat waves. Photo: NABIN BARAL / THE THIRD POLE</figcaption></figure>Kim Stanley Robinson’s cli-fi novel The Ministry for the Future begins with an unprecedented heatwave in northern India. Air conditioners and fans stop working because of power cuts, water runs out, and more than 20 million people die.The same dystopian future is the subject of Gaia Vince’s new book Nomad Century: How Climate Migration Will Reshape Our World. But Vince’s book is not science fiction — it looks at mass migrations from the most densely-populated parts of the world because of unsurvivable heat waves.‘Fleeing the tropics, the coasts and formerly arable lands, huge populations will need to seek new homes. You will be among them, or you will be receiving them,’ Vince predicts. The heat waves in India, China, Europe and North America this summer were hints of what may be in store.Scientists are predicting that if the buildup of greenhouse gases continues at the present rate, average global temperatures will cross 2°C by 2050, and could reach a sizzling 4°C by the end of the century.The heat impact on South Asia, especially the densely populated Indo-Gangetic plains, would be unthinkable, and will be accompanied by sea level rise that could submerge coastal cities, and millions will be hit by floods and droughts.Vince predicts that large swathes of the globe will be uninhabitable, leaving no choice for at least 5 billion people but to move either to higher latitude or altitude.The scenario is so apocalyptic that Robinson in his novel imagines a future in which world governments are finally shocked into action by the mass deaths in northern India. And Vince advocates preparing for future migrations because it is not a question of if, but when, where and how many.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114131156/63723b6f9c7e80680e0c95bdjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="478" height="524"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Read also:<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=37135&amp;preview_nonce=066ab9802a&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Migration mitigation</a>, Editorial<a style="background-color: #ffffff; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/clock-starts-ticking-at-cop-25/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Clock starts ticking at COP25</a>, Josie WangUnlike authors, scientists and academics are loath to make specific predictions about mass migrations without adequate research. However, military strategists and intelligence agencies in many countries are already known to be planning for the security posed by a rising tide of humanity on the move.In Nepal, it could mean a steady increase in the movement of people to the uplands from the Tarai, reversing the outmigration of people from the mountains to the plains. In India, people could stream out of the heavily populated Ganga plains for the cooler climes of Kashmir, Himachal, Uttarakhand, or Sikkim. Heat could push many Pakistanis from Punjab and Sindh to the Hindu Kush.“Humans have always migrated, for one reason or the other,” says Yogendra B Gurung, Professor at the Central Department of Population Studies in Tribhuvan University. “It used to be for better economic opportunities. Now, we have <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/climate-change-is-a-disaster-in-the-nepal-himalaya/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">climate-induced disasters</a> in the mix.”For decades, Nepalis have moved from the mountains and hills to the Tarai. First due to planned resettlement in the 1960s, and later seeking better jobs, healthcare and education resulting in 54% of Nepal’s 30 million population now living in the plains. But if current heating trends continue, the movement could be in the opposite direction.Climate migration is not new, it is already happening. Villages in Kavre, Ramechhap and Mustang districts have seen entire households moving out because of water sources going dry due to prolonged droughts. But heat stress is going to affect many more people, and they will have nowhere to go, but up.A new report by the World Bank Group, Country, Climate and Development Report for Nepal warns: 'Heat stress affects large swathes of the country, with over 4 million Nepalese facing the health impacts of extreme heat.'Read Also:<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/the-carbon-footprint-of-tourism/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">The carbon footprint of tourism</a><a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/climate-climax/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Climate climax</a>, Editorial<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/climate-damage/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Climate damage</a>, Editorial<a style="letter-spacing: 0.01em; background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/nepal-needs-to-get-its-climate-act-together/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Nepal’s climate adaptation plans</a> so far mostly take into account melting glaciers, receding snow lines and the mountains. “There is no real mention of the Tarai in our climate discourse, we haven’t even begun to study the slow-onset impacts of the climate crisis,” says Ajaya Dixit of the Institute for Social and Environmental Transition (ISET) Nepal.Dixit spent three months this spring in New Delhi during an unseasonal heat wave, with the maximum temperature most days touching 45°C in April. He writes in a guest editorial for Nepali Times this week: ‘In Nepal, we have not yet recognised increasing heat as a potential problem – both in terms of threats in the Tarai and river valleys, and the environmental implications of possible movement of people up the mountains.’Future climate refugees might have to deal with a whole new set of problems in their new homes: adapting to drastically different climate and socio-economic conditions, and a hostile political environment.“Nepal is already starting to see reverse migration of people from lowlands to highlands unlike in the past, and we will likely see more of it in the future. Even plants and vectors like mosquitoes are moving up,” says climate scientist Manjeet Dhakal. “But it is unlikely to resolve the root cause of the problem. It is much better to devise adaptation strategies starting right now.”<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114131156/63723b709c7e80680e0c95bejpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1170" height="739"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Like in Kim Stanley Robinson’s novel, Gaia Vince in Nomad Century explores the similar solutions like using bioengineering to stabilise and cool the planet, a global governance body to set the planet’s thermostat, building new compact cities at higher latitudes to house climate refugees with an international tax, universal passports.Many of these ideas are politically unfeasible in the present climate, as seen in the rise of populist anti-immigration parties in the North. But the climate refugee crisis will be so drastic that it will need drastic solutions. Vince believes that future migration will benefit both refugees and their destination countries which by then will have declining populations because of falling birth rates. In fact, migration may be necessary for humanity to survive a crisis of its own making.Humans migrated out of Africa, possibly also due to climate reasons, some 80,000 years ago. And they have been on the move ever since. The <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/underreporting-the-climate-emergency/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">climate crisis</a> now poses the threat of another mass exodus, on a scale never seen before.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-must-prepare-for-climate-migration/">Nepal must prepare for climate migration</a>, Sonia Awale<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/the-third-pole-is-warming-faster-than-expected/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">The Third Pole is warming faster than expected</a>, Kunda Dixit<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/a-terrifying-assessment-of-himalayan-melting/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Terrifying assessment of a Himalayan melting</a>, Kunda DixitThe Ministry for the FutureBy Kim Stanley RobinsonOrbit, 2020576p          $20.49 (hardback)<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114131156/63723b729c7e80680e0c95bfjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1651" height="2560"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114131156/63723b769c7e80680e0c95c0jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1684" height="2560">Nomad Century: How Climate Migration Will Reshape Our WorldBy Gaia VinceFlatiron Books, 2022288p$18.99 (hardback)

Sonia Awale

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Unthinkable in the current climate

<figure><img width="759" height="422" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111152/63721e639c7e80680e0bd542jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption></figcaption></figure>The irony was not lost on Kim Stanley Robinson as he flew into New Delhi just as northern India <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/north-indian-heat-wave-hits-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">experienced a record-breaking heat wave</a> this week, -- exactly like the protagonist in his 2020 climate fiction book The Ministry for the Future.The first chapter of the book begins with an American aid worker named Frank in a small town in Uttar Pradesh in which everyone dies in a killer heat wave when the heat plus humidity ‘wet bulb’ temperature becomes unsurvivable.The maximum temperature in the Indo-Gangetic plains already exceeds 45 Celsius with some regularity, but that is usually in late May – not in April. It is almost as if India is marking Robinson’s visit with a heatwave, albeit a lot less lethal than the one he describes in his book.Still, if scientists are right about heat stress caused by the climate emergency,<a href="https://www.amazon.com/Ministry-Future-Kim-Stanley-Robinson/dp/0316300136" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"> The Ministry for the Future</a> may soon have to be relocated from the fiction section of book stores to the non-fiction shelves.As the author of his previous Mars Trilogy in which humans establish colonies on the red planet, Robinson’s book predictably dwells on scientists and world governments relying on geo-engineering solutions to cool down an over-heating planet.The Ministry for the Future, has a completely opposite take to the recent Netflix release <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/things-are-looking-up/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Don’t Look Up</a> about a planetary emergency. Here, the world comes together to set up a Ministry of the Future in Switzerland that is headed by a former foreign minister of Ireland named Mary Murphy who seems to be a cross between Mary Robinson and Gro Harlem Brundtland.In real life this week, the Indian heat wave is baking New Delhi even as a Buddhist American self-immolated himself at the steps of the US Congress building in Washington to protest the lack of action on climate change. It is a bit eerie that Robinson’s science fiction book has an eco-terrorist group that uses drones to down airliners to protest fossil fuel burning.But despite its dystopian tone, The Ministry of the Future has an uplifting message throughout with snarky humour in the 106 chapters. But overall, there is optimism that humanity can come together to act when faced with climate oblivion.The fiction comes closest to fact when dissecting the corporate greed that drives <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/climate-denial-in-the-himalaya/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">climate denial</a>, petro-state profiteers stuck in the fossil age, or despots who want to cash in on the chaos.Not to give it all away, but Mary Murphy eventually finds a way to coax the world’s central bankers to pay for decarbonisation and geo-engineering solutions like pumping water out of from underneath Antarctic glaciers, or dyeing the Arctic yellow to reflect solar radiation.Robinson visited Nepal to trek to Everest Base Camp in the 1980’s and was inspired to write a collection of novellas titled <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Escape-Kathmandu-Kim-Stanley-Robinson/dp/0312874995" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Escape from Kathmandu</a>.This week he was in India to deliver a keynote at a climate change conference organised by the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/dalai-lama-gets-block-of-glacial-ice/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Dalai Lama</a>, and admits: “In person, I am not as hopeful as I am in the book. I am terrified about mass extinction. I start with a mass casualty heatwave in India because I wanted to wake people up. I have tried to stick to the reality of the present, not something way into the future. But this is a work of utopian fiction.”The Ministry for the Future: A Novelby <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Kim-Stanley-Robinson/e/B000APVJXC/ref=dp_byline_cont_book_1">Kim Stanley Robinson</a>Orbit Books, 2020$ 20.10 on <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Ministry-Future-Kim-Stanley-Robinson/dp/0316300136">Amazon</a>, 576 pagesISBN 10 - 0316300136<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111152/63721e649c7e80680e0bd543jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="255" height="393">

Government for the future

<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/waiting-for-bipin-joshi" target="_blank">Nepali student Bipin Joshi</a>, who was taken captive by Hamas on 7 October 2023, was not on the list of those freed following the end of the bombardment and fighting in Gaza.&nbsp; On Monday morning, the Israeli military notified Bipin's family and Nepal’s ambassador to Israel Dhan Prasad Pandit, that there is no evidence of him still being alive. However, Nepal's Foreign Ministry is yet to be notified by Israel's government of Bipin's status. The news came three days after a US-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Hamas came into effect, and hostage and prisoner exchanges by the two sides started Monday morning.&nbsp; Almost 2,000 Palestinians held in Israeli prisions are expected to be released by Israel in exchange for the hostages during the next phase of the peace deal between the two parties, and the bodies of deceased hostages remaining in Gaza are also expected to be returned.&nbsp; Bipin Joshi was among a group of Nepalis who had arrived in Israel in 2023 just weeks before 7 October 2023 as part of a ‘learn and earn’ program to work and earn in kibbutz farms there.&nbsp; Along with other students Joshi had been working on a farm in Kibbutz Alumim in southern Israel near Gaza. <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/war-in-israel-earthquake-and-grief-in-nepal">Ten Nepali students were killed </a>while taking cover in shelters near their farms in two separate attacks by Hamas fighters.&nbsp; Joshi’s colleagues, fellow Nepalis who survived the attack, recall gunmen lobbing two grenades into the bunker that they had taken cover in. Bipin hurled one of the grenades out, they say, but the other one exploded, killing and injuring Nepalis inside. &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Shortly after, Bipin was captured by Hamas along with a Thai national and led away into Gaza. CCTV footage showed Bipin alive and at a hospital in Gaza on the day of the attack itself after he was taken hostage.&nbsp; Thirty-one Thai citizens, who like Nepalis worked in farms in Israel, were taken hostage during the Hamas attack, the highest number of foreign captives in October 2023.&nbsp; <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/deft-diplomacy-freed-thai-hostages">Deft Thai diplomatic engagement</a> with officials from Iran, Egypt, and Qatar brought about the release of 23 of its nationals in 2023. Five more Thai nationals were released earlier this year.&nbsp; In August, Joshi’s family visited Israel at the invitation of the government and urged the international community to push for his return. Bipin’s mother Padma and sister Pushpa have been at the United Nations to lobby for his release.&nbsp; His family last week also released a video clip of Bipin briefly speaking on camera, reportedly obtained by Israel and said to be filmed in November 2023, around a month after he was taken captive. Joshi looks healthy in that video.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20251013091028_d551c7f88204c52217152fb5db655bb5a5f8bf2cff1e6a055326ebf64453ff9f.png" data-media-id="editor_3" data-image-id="20251013091028_d551c7f88204c52217152fb5db655bb5a5f8bf2cff1e6a055326ebf64453ff9f" data-rendition-name="original" width="2848" height="1528" loading="lazy" alt="Bipin Joshi NT"> </figure>  More than 67,000 Palestinians have been killed during the last two years of the genocide in Gaza. About 1,200 people were killed during the Hamas attack on 7 October 2023, while more than 251, including Bipin Joshi, were taken as captives.&nbsp; This is the third ceasefire implemented in Gaza since 7 October 2023 after previous ones in November 2023 and January 2025. This 20-point deal facilitated by intermediaries US, Qatar, Turkey, and Egypt included terms for Hamas to give up its arms, and for a devastated Gaza to be governed by a Palestinian body of independent technocrats, while Israeli troops will withdraw in stages from Gaza.&nbsp; Hamas has agreed to relinquish control of Gaza, but has rejected the demand for disarmament, saying the group will demobilise but is prepared to resume fighting if Israel breaches the ceasefire.&nbsp; Following the ceasefire, Palestinians in Gaza have begun long journeys back to homes reduced to rubble by Israel’s two-year assault on the strip. The flow of humanitarian aid in the city has also increased following the peace deal.&nbsp; Israel's closure of humanitarian corridors in the past months had blocked the entry of food and medicine into Gaza, causing widespread famine. The United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA) has said that the restriction of aid into the beseiged city has left as many as <a href="https://www.unrwa.org/newsroom/news-releases/gaza-unrwa%E2%80%99s-lancet-study-reveals-alarming-surge-child-malnutrition">54,600 children acutely malnourished</a>.&nbsp; Meanwhile, US president Donald Trump landed in Israel on Monday as hostages were being released, and world leaders are expected to head to Egypt for an international summit to discuss the next steps in Gaza, Israel, and West Asia.&nbsp;

Nepali hostage in Gaza not alive: Israel

Already trying to balance youth demands with legal provisions in the Constitution, Prime Minister Sushila Karki’s interim government faced yet another challenge over Dasain: a receding monsoon dumped unseasonal rain unleashing floods and landslides that killed at least 60, mostly in eastern Nepal.&nbsp; The government was rated positively for its early warning and the ‘visibility’ of its disaster response, with many comparing it to the inaction of the NC-UML coalition during last year’s floods.&nbsp; Government agencies and police proactively closed off hazardous sections of highways as Kathmandu was marooned from the rest of the country in the peak holiday season. Stranded passengers were taken care of, with police, army and local governments in Ilam coordinating rescue and relief efforts. Many of the problems were structural and inherited from decades of neglect and corruption in highway contracts. Shoddy bridges and encroachment of settlements along river banks have increased risk from more frequent extreme weather caused by climate breakdown. With Dasain over Tihar around the corner and the worst of the disaster behind, the Karki administration is trying to balance the separate demands of GenZ movers and shakers who installed her in office with constitutional provisions. It has not helped that the badly-mauled political parties are spoiling for a fight, and the three top leaders show little signs of stepping down. “Nepal’s movement did not happen in a democratic vacuum, so this government walks a very fine line in political legitimacy," says Bidushi Dhungel of the National Democratic Institute in Nepal. "In this fragile space, whatever the work done — or not done— by the interim government within its limited mandate, it may open up avenues for further dissent from old and new actors. They are &nbsp;caught between a rock and a hard place.” Civil society activists issued a statement on Wednesday calling on the main political parties to heed the writing on the wall and reform themselves. Signed by professor Krishna Khanal and former ambassador Keshab Mathema, the statement said: 'The main leaders of the main parties should say sorry, and voluntarily resign ... they must respect public sentiments and work to reform and transform their parties to be more accountable to the public, or risk being irrelevant.'&nbsp; Complicating matters further are the sometimes contradictory demands of various GenZ factions on punishing those responsible for the carnage and rampage of 8-9 September, Constitution and elections. Karki faces calls to immediately detain former PM KP Oli and Home Minister Ramesh Lekhak for their involvement in the massacre outside Parliament. Under pressure from GenZ delegates, Home Minister Om Aryal fired off a letter to the police to arrest Oli and Lekhak. But later at a confrontational midnight meeting at the prime minister’s residence in Baluwatar, all four security chiefs advised Karki that arresting the UML and NC ex-ministers could unleash violent confrontation on the streets. The interim government is in a bind. It has formed a committee headed by Gauri Bahadur Karki to investigate the killings last month as well as the arson and vandalism that followed. The question is: should it wait for the committee to submit its report before punishing perpetrators, or let police arrest those who can easily be identified in social media posts setting fire to Singha Darbar, the Supreme Court and other sites.&nbsp; GenZ’s Sudan Gurung faction has gone beyond its original demand to submit an 8-point ultimatum that includes the sacking of the Chief Justice and officials of the anti-corruption bureau.&nbsp; The Prime Minister is caught in the crossfire between managing the expectations of a movement that appointed her, and working within the framework of her interim government’s mandate and Constitution. But it is not just the government that faces challenges. The lack of clear consensus among youth factions and their outspoken collectives is surfacing.&nbsp; &nbsp;“This has been a leaderless and decentralised movement, and the traditional variables typically seen in a political revolt seem missing here," notes political scientist Sucheta Pyakuryal. “There is no organised structure, nor any ideological pull factor, therefore a big question is how much bargaining power does a movement like this have, and how sustainable will it be.” GenZ leaders seem to be in two main camps. Demands like the one for a directly elected prime minister, and the constitutional processes that can make for such an outcome, have emerged as a major point dividing the movement.&nbsp; Nepalis both within and outside the youth movement are watching Hami Nepal’s Sudan Gurung closely — especially after his recent interview with Al-Jazeera during which he expressed his interest to run for Prime Minister and seemed to not accept a win by political parties in the March elections.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20251009201044_fcba7e92bb9a8812fd0ad4e9770d6f4d4189972de5229f91e9a832a26e388901.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20251009201044_fcba7e92bb9a8812fd0ad4e9770d6f4d4189972de5229f91e9a832a26e388901" data-rendition-name="original" width="2916" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="One month on NT"> <figcaption>GROUND ZERO: The destroyed centre of Nepal's government with Singha Darbar (in green scaffolding), the Attorney General's Office, Supreme Court, and in the distance, Parliament building. Also seen are the nearly finished new Parliament Complex and the new Supreme Court buildings. Drone shot taken on Thursday morning. Photo: SUMAN NEPALI</figcaption> </figure>  Gurung’s participation in the NDRRMA’s disaster management meeting and manner of his interaction with officials at the event was met with both bouquets and brickbats. Interestingly, some of the criticism was youth activists themselves. &nbsp;“There's a lot of self-involvement and self-importance that seems to be guiding a fragmented young leadership, as opposed to constructively engaging in how to concretise reforms,” says Dhungel. “There seems to be very little stocktaking of what's happened in the past, and what's happened in other countries to try identify where lapses could be before they occur."&nbsp; In the absence of unified positions and level-headed leadership, the youth who spearheaded post-protest negotiations, as well as the GenZ movement in general, risk losing public goodwill already dented by the destruction of state property on 9 September. This also leaves an opening for political parties which are on the defensive and licking their wounds to capitalise on youth discord.&nbsp; Says Pyakuryal: “Post revolution, the political landscape becomes extremely unpredictable and therefore there is a risk of co-optation from several Machiavellian political actors including political parties, monarchists, as well as other forces, and that is concerning.” The immediate and visible transformation that Nepal’s youth expect will not manifest right away, and while there is a need for long-term political planning, the caretaker government must also undertake measures that have a palpable impact on the daily life of citizens. &nbsp;&nbsp; “While youth frustrations must be addressed urgently, statecraft isn’t just about fulfilling short-term goals,”says Pyakuryal. &nbsp; Many, including the youth themselves, now see the need for GenZ to have a more united stance and to move beyond making demands that the interim government cannot fulfil and start mobilising for elections — even by forming its own party.&nbsp; A strong showing in elections can enable them to enact the changes they want to strengthen Nepal’s democracy, and make future governments more accountable.&nbsp; This week, the Election Commission announced 16 November as the deadline to register new parties for the 5 March polls.&nbsp; Youth representatives have said that they want to be active participants in the political process, particularly in national-level politics. The Constitution defines ‘youth’ as being between the ages of 16-40. In the 2022 elections, the Election Commission stated that over 41% of locally-elected representatives were from ages 21-40 years.&nbsp; If young Nepalis are to contest the election outside the banner of mainstream parties, this leaves electoral aspirants little more than a month to decide whether to form a loose coalition with existing parties, a separate political party, or to contest elections independently. “This is first of a kind movement, where political language is digital, not ideological, where organising is done through online platforms and where there is no one leader spearheading the movement,”says Pyakuryal. “I don’t know if ‘anti-corruption’ or ‘political reform’ have a strong enough ideological pull to band people together in the long run.” Indeed, the RSP was formed only four months before the 2022 elections and cashed in on anti-incumbent and anti-corruption sentiments of voters — mainly driven by social media. But controversy and strife within their party means it has largely lost its public trust.&nbsp; Nepal’s September Uprising and its aftermath have shown that a majority of young people are entirely disillusioned with establishment parties and politicians, even using ‘ex-political parties’ as a phrase of reference. Any new young political figures that emerge from this movement and this election will have to work with mainstream parties in a multiparty democracy.&nbsp; &nbsp;“The reality of politics is that change is not possible without engaging with existing political institutions and actors,” says Dhungel. “To say that they do not want to engage, negotiate, or identify allies or proactively seek out input from at least the reform-minded individuals within each of those outfits is political naivety, and may lead to a lack of institutionalised reform.” However, Dhungel notes that the youth leadership would have more agency if they are clear not just on what they want to change, but about whether they are interested in active politics or civic engagement. “The window of opportunity that is fast closing is to really negotiate hard and push for internal reforms within political parties and across the electoral system,” she adds. Pyakurel also adds: “GenZ are smart and politically mature, I hope they see these loopholes. I am optimistic about the direction they take.”

One month on

The meeting called by Prime Minister Sushila Karki at Baluwatar on 4 October was supposed to be about completing the interim cabinet with GenZ representatives. But it ended with factions putting up rival demands.
It is ironic that a movement that voted for Karki on Discord is itself marred by discord.
But such jostling was to be expected. This was an amorphous and leaderless group of young Nepalis that was suddenly elevated to fill a national power vacuum, and is now expected to redesign the country from scratch. &nbsp;
At least two camps have emerged within the youth groups. One is led by Sudan Gurung of Hami Nepal with Barsa Raut, Anil Baniya, Purshotam Yadav and Ojaswi Raj Thapa, while the second under Rakshya Bam has Pradeep Gyawali, Aditya Karn, Yujan Rajbhandari and Dheeraj Joshi.
Just like it was at Nepal Army Headquarters on 10 September, there is distrust and dissent within these disparate group. For the sake of stability, and in memory of the 72 who lost their lives last month, Nepalis want these groups to be more united in their stances. &nbsp;
Prime Minister Karki did not attend the Baluwatar meeting last week, wanting the GenZs to first work out their differences. Home Minister Om Prakash Aryal and Finance Minister Rameshore Khanal were present, and entreated the young delegates to cooperate.
Sudan Gurung has demanded the resignation of the Chief Justice and the head of the anti-graft body, the CIAA. However, some even within Gurung’s camp are said to want constitutional provisions to be respected, and do not agree with some of his eight demands.
Rakshya Bam accuses Gurung of trying to do away with the Constitution and issuing arbitrary statements on governance. Her group also issued a statement warning against any attempt to deviate from the values of democratic change.
The conflict between various GenZ groups has exposed the nature and limitations of street revolt, proving that it is always easier to destroy than to rebuild. A revolution can bring rapid and transformative change, but then comes the task of agreeing on new structures and processes — while dealing with the ego and ambition of the protagonists.
TIGHT-ROPE WALK
One year after a similar student-led uprising, Bangladesh is struggling to stabilise the system and preparing for elections while dealing with extremism and geopolitical fallout. Sri Lanka held elections and brought in a new youthful leader, but it has not been smooth sailing.
Prime Minister Karki’s caretaker government is on a tight-rope walk. Moving too fast on arresting the previous prime minister and investigating others for corruption risks igniting renewed street violence, but delaying justice will anger the impatient youth, who want immediate results.&nbsp;
The longer the uncertainty and instability lasts, the more likely it will be for radical forces to take advantage of the fluidity. The communal clashes in Birganj and Janakpur over Dasain, inspired by what is happening across the border, should be a wakeup call. Hate speech and ethnic slurs on social media could be incendiary if left unregulated.
The Prime Minister has said her foremost priority is to ensure free, fair and inclusive elections on 5 March — mindful that various forces are out to sabotage it for their own interests.
Amending the Constitution to meet GenZ demands may have to wait for polls next year, and real change that improves lives, creates jobs and makes the bureaucracy cleaner and more efficient will take longer.
But till then, the interim administration could deliver tangible benefits to people with do-able improvements like speeding up the driving license process, removing middlemen from all levels of the bureaucracy, expeditiously completing highway repairs, controlling food prices.
The youth want immediate course correction, given how the old political parties, politicians and bureaucracy had plundered the state for years. But idealism alone cannot make a state machinery function. Every decision during this sensitive transition must be taken without undermining previous gains.
Factional friction within the GenZ will allow the old leaders in the old parties to regroup and plot revenge. Meanwhile, the three main parties, which fuelled the youth and class rage with their corruption and reckless disregard for the public good for the past three decades, do not seem to have learnt their lessons.&nbsp;
Despite being disgraced, K P Oli of UML, Sher Bahadur Deuba of the Nepali Congress and Pushpa Kamal Dahal of the Maoist Centre, are still not willing to retire. The tragic loss of life and the mayhem that followed does not seem to have opened their eyes to the writing on the wall. They are intent on blaming everyone but themselves.
The Election Commission has already set a deadline for party registration by 16 November. Some in the GenZs want provisions to vote for a directly elected executive head of the country by even changing the Constitution.
There is a lot of confusion about what exactly the mandate of the interim government is, what it can and cannot do. With the dissolution of Parliament, the interim government cannot amend the Constitution, its only mandate is to conduct elections to form a new government that would then work on amendments.&nbsp;
At most, it can pass ordinances but only for the peace and good governance of the country or when there is an immediate need to enact a law.
To make things murkier, Sudan Gurung in a widely-shared interview on Al Jazeera said that he would run for prime minister, and that he would not accept the old parties and their leaders even if they win the elections unless they completely reform their political stance. He is also willing to work with pro-monarchists if they are for the betterment of the country.
Dharan Mayor Harka Sampang has already registered a new party called Shram Sanskriti Party while the likes of Kathmandu Mayor Balen Shah, Energy Minister Kulman Ghising and for RSP Sumana Shrestha are expected to follow another corporate backer for a new party.
All parties, including any new ones representing the youth, must learn from the failures of the newer alternatives such as Sajha, Bibeksheel and more recently RSP. Parties go nowhere without a clear ideology, organisation and a vision and pathway post-elections.
The interim government is made of most capable technocrats and a Prime Minister with zero tolerance for incompetence and who says she has no intention of continuing in the position a minute longer than necessary.&nbsp;
We now have to move beyond destruction to rebuilding, and not be distracted by discord.
Sonia Awale

Discordant Democracy

Scenic Phortse in the lap of Mt Everest is called ‘the village of mountaineers’ because just about every household has someone who has summited the world’s highest mountain multiple times. However, while the international mountaineers they assist to make it to the top go on to fame and glory, their Sherpa guides from Phortse <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/without-sherpas-there-is-no-mountaineering" target="_blank">barely get a mention</a>. It is a risky occupation for Nepal’s high altitude guides, and every other family in this village has lost a member in Himalayan expeditions. Sherpa guides are <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/on-mt-everest-s-70th-records-and-fatalities" target="_blank">disproportionately more at risk </a>on Mt Everest because they have to traverse the Khumbu Icefall many times during an expedition. One third of the over 300 climbers who have died climbing Mt Everest are Nepali high altitude guides and porters. In 2014, <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/everest-dangerous-place-to-work,1316" target="_blank">16 guides were killed</a> when an avalanche fell on them while going up the treacherous Icefall carrying expedition gear. Then in 2015, the <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/big-drops-in-Everest-bookings-affect-livelihoods-of-Nepali-high-altitude-guides,2048" target="_blank">earthquake triggered a massive avalanche</a> that killed 22 climbers at Base Camp. Many of the fatalities in both years were Sherpa guides from Phortse. Despite the danger, Phortse honours and celebrates its climbers like heroes. One such is the late &nbsp;Nima Tshiring Sherpa, who was a porter and guide in the 1953 John Hunt expedition in which Edmund Hillary and Tenzing Norgay became the first to set foot on the world’s highest summit.&nbsp; Nima Tshiring and his eldest son Pasang Gyalzen both reached 8,000m carrying expedition gear for the Hunt expedition in 1953. Nima Tshiring had eight sons and a daughter and although he never submitted himself, most of them have climbed Mt Everest at least once. In fact, his children and grandchildren have been to the top of Mt Everest a total of 81 times — a record for any family in Nepal.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20251011171048_a55e45bee2b5bbf38e4ee5bcea101edcc3041f40e331b8fee44e473457f42553.png" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20251011171048_a55e45bee2b5bbf38e4ee5bcea101edcc3041f40e331b8fee44e473457f42553" data-rendition-name="original" width="2144" height="1436" loading="lazy" alt="Sherpa climbers"> <figcaption>Nima Tshiring Sherpa with wife and children in Phortse. An unanmed Everest climber on right.</figcaption> </figure>  “We were born in Phortse which is in the lap of Everest, our identity is Chomolungma,” says one of his sons, Panuru, using the Sherpa name for the mountain. “In fact, I feel our entire family was born to climb Everest.”&nbsp; Phortse has a population of 350 people living in 95 households. Besides Nima Tshiring’s clan, more than 75 of the inhabitants have climbed Everest, many of them multiple times.&nbsp; Another one of Nima Tshiring’s sons, Ngawang climbed Everest 11 times, his brother Mingma Dorje has summited 14 times, and another brother Ngati not only got to the top seven times, but was the first climber to reach the peak from the Chinese side and descend down the Nepal part of Mt Everest. Ngati was killed in an avalanche on Annapurna while climbing with an American expedition in 1993.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20251011171044_60693527b31aba22fe6f6c233cf367a3683b88be8dc2a53bfb5c2c02b2db1e5b.png" data-media-id="editor_5" data-image-id="20251011171044_60693527b31aba22fe6f6c233cf367a3683b88be8dc2a53bfb5c2c02b2db1e5b" data-rendition-name="original" width="2242" height="1660" loading="lazy" alt="Sherpa climbers"> <figcaption>Mingma Dorje has climbed Everest 14 times.</figcaption> </figure>  Panuru himself has reached the summit of Everest 16 times, and set up the<a href="https://www.khumbuclimbingcenter.com/" target="_blank"> Khumbu Climbing Centre</a> in 2003 to train others in climbing techniques. Following in his footsteps was another brother Mingma Tshiring, who has been up 15 times and <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/sherpaland-co-usa" target="_blank">now lives in Colorado</a>.&nbsp; Nima Tshiring’s only daughter Mingma Yanjin has also climbed Cho Oyu, Ama Dablam and other &nbsp;Himalayan mountains. Her husband Lhakpa Chiri Sherpa has climbed Everest 11 times. Counting him, the total summits for the family would be 92. This number also does not include other Himalayan eight-thousanders besides Mt Everest that the family from Phortse has summited. Nima Tsiring’s youngest son is Danuru who has climbed Everest 16 times, and has been on top of North American peaks from his base in Colorado. He is giving Everest yet another try.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20251011171048_cd3e2961567ca507fc4110c97e01d85ee1c7e35f787276564ff59a4a76151fe2.png" data-media-id="editor_8" data-image-id="20251011171048_cd3e2961567ca507fc4110c97e01d85ee1c7e35f787276564ff59a4a76151fe2" data-rendition-name="original" width="1308" height="980" loading="lazy" alt="Sherpa climbers"> <figcaption>Nima Tshiring Sherpa and his son Danuru.</figcaption> </figure>  Even his grandchildren are following Nima Tshiring’s footsteps up Everest. Panuru’s son Lhakpa has climbed Everest from both sides and wants to break previous Everest records.&nbsp; “It is a dangerous occupation, but the rewards in terms of fame and money are substantial,” says Danuru. “One season’s income is enough for a Phortse climber to support his family for a year. And we have Chomolungma to be thankful for.”  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20251011171048_d1f16e3925890663cadf3e20d955a531f21c479708f662df371fad3fdb87cf7a.png" data-media-id="editor_9" data-image-id="20251011171048_d1f16e3925890663cadf3e20d955a531f21c479708f662df371fad3fdb87cf7a" data-rendition-name="original" width="760" height="1040" loading="lazy" alt="Sherpa climbers"> <figcaption>Mingma Chhiring Sherpa who has climbed the Everest 16 times with a client.</figcaption> </figure>

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