<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114131156/63723b6c9c7e80680e0c95bcjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000"/><figcaption>Farmers in Bihar, across the border from Nepal, tending to their parched fields (left). Climate change will not just lead to droughts and floods, but also unsurvivable heat waves. Photo: NABIN BARAL / THE THIRD POLE</figcaption></figure>Kim Stanley Robinson’s cli-fi novel The Ministry for the Future begins with an unprecedented heatwave in northern India. Air conditioners and fans stop working because of power cuts, water runs out, and more than 20 million people die.The same dystopian future is the subject of Gaia Vince’s new book Nomad Century: How Climate Migration Will Reshape Our World. But Vince’s book is not science fiction — it looks at mass migrations from the most densely-populated parts of the world because of unsurvivable heat waves.‘Fleeing the tropics, the coasts and formerly arable lands, huge populations will need to seek new homes. You will be among them, or you will be receiving them,’ Vince predicts. The heat waves in India, China, Europe and North America this summer were hints of what may be in store.Scientists are predicting that if the buildup of greenhouse gases continues at the present rate, average global temperatures will cross 2°C by 2050, and could reach a sizzling 4°C by the end of the century.The heat impact on South Asia, especially the densely populated Indo-Gangetic plains, would be unthinkable, and will be accompanied by sea level rise that could submerge coastal cities, and millions will be hit by floods and droughts.Vince predicts that large swathes of the globe will be uninhabitable, leaving no choice for at least 5 billion people but to move either to higher latitude or altitude.The scenario is so apocalyptic that Robinson in his novel imagines a future in which world governments are finally shocked into action by the mass deaths in northern India. And Vince advocates preparing for future migrations because it is not a question of if, but when, where and how many.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114131156/63723b6f9c7e80680e0c95bdjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="478" height="524"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Read also:<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=37135&amp;preview_nonce=066ab9802a&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Migration mitigation</a>, Editorial<a style="background-color: #ffffff; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/clock-starts-ticking-at-cop-25/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Clock starts ticking at COP25</a>, Josie WangUnlike authors, scientists and academics are loath to make specific predictions about mass migrations without adequate research. However, military strategists and intelligence agencies in many countries are already known to be planning for the security posed by a rising tide of humanity on the move.In Nepal, it could mean a steady increase in the movement of people to the uplands from the Tarai, reversing the outmigration of people from the mountains to the plains. In India, people could stream out of the heavily populated Ganga plains for the cooler climes of Kashmir, Himachal, Uttarakhand, or Sikkim. Heat could push many Pakistanis from Punjab and Sindh to the Hindu Kush.“Humans have always migrated, for one reason or the other,” says Yogendra B Gurung, Professor at the Central Department of Population Studies in Tribhuvan University. “It used to be for better economic opportunities. Now, we have <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/climate-change-is-a-disaster-in-the-nepal-himalaya/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">climate-induced disasters</a> in the mix.”For decades, Nepalis have moved from the mountains and hills to the Tarai. First due to planned resettlement in the 1960s, and later seeking better jobs, healthcare and education resulting in 54% of Nepal’s 30 million population now living in the plains. But if current heating trends continue, the movement could be in the opposite direction.Climate migration is not new, it is already happening. Villages in Kavre, Ramechhap and Mustang districts have seen entire households moving out because of water sources going dry due to prolonged droughts. But heat stress is going to affect many more people, and they will have nowhere to go, but up.A new report by the World Bank Group, Country, Climate and Development Report for Nepal warns: 'Heat stress affects large swathes of the country, with over 4 million Nepalese facing the health impacts of extreme heat.'Read Also:<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/the-carbon-footprint-of-tourism/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">The carbon footprint of tourism</a><a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/climate-climax/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Climate climax</a>, Editorial<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/climate-damage/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Climate damage</a>, Editorial<a style="letter-spacing: 0.01em; background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/nepal-needs-to-get-its-climate-act-together/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Nepal’s climate adaptation plans</a> so far mostly take into account melting glaciers, receding snow lines and the mountains. “There is no real mention of the Tarai in our climate discourse, we haven’t even begun to study the slow-onset impacts of the climate crisis,” says Ajaya Dixit of the Institute for Social and Environmental Transition (ISET) Nepal.Dixit spent three months this spring in New Delhi during an unseasonal heat wave, with the maximum temperature most days touching 45°C in April. He writes in a guest editorial for Nepali Times this week: ‘In Nepal, we have not yet recognised increasing heat as a potential problem – both in terms of threats in the Tarai and river valleys, and the environmental implications of possible movement of people up the mountains.’Future climate refugees might have to deal with a whole new set of problems in their new homes: adapting to drastically different climate and socio-economic conditions, and a hostile political environment.“Nepal is already starting to see reverse migration of people from lowlands to highlands unlike in the past, and we will likely see more of it in the future. Even plants and vectors like mosquitoes are moving up,” says climate scientist Manjeet Dhakal. “But it is unlikely to resolve the root cause of the problem. It is much better to devise adaptation strategies starting right now.”<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114131156/63723b709c7e80680e0c95bejpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1170" height="739"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Like in Kim Stanley Robinson’s novel, Gaia Vince in Nomad Century explores the similar solutions like using bioengineering to stabilise and cool the planet, a global governance body to set the planet’s thermostat, building new compact cities at higher latitudes to house climate refugees with an international tax, universal passports.Many of these ideas are politically unfeasible in the present climate, as seen in the rise of populist anti-immigration parties in the North. But the climate refugee crisis will be so drastic that it will need drastic solutions. Vince believes that future migration will benefit both refugees and their destination countries which by then will have declining populations because of falling birth rates. In fact, migration may be necessary for humanity to survive a crisis of its own making.Humans migrated out of Africa, possibly also due to climate reasons, some 80,000 years ago. And they have been on the move ever since. The <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/underreporting-the-climate-emergency/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">climate crisis</a> now poses the threat of another mass exodus, on a scale never seen before.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-must-prepare-for-climate-migration/">Nepal must prepare for climate migration</a>, Sonia Awale<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/the-third-pole-is-warming-faster-than-expected/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">The Third Pole is warming faster than expected</a>, Kunda Dixit<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/a-terrifying-assessment-of-himalayan-melting/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Terrifying assessment of a Himalayan melting</a>, Kunda DixitThe Ministry for the FutureBy Kim Stanley RobinsonOrbit, 2020576p          $20.49 (hardback)<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114131156/63723b729c7e80680e0c95bfjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1651" height="2560"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114131156/63723b769c7e80680e0c95c0jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1684" height="2560">Nomad Century: How Climate Migration Will Reshape Our WorldBy Gaia VinceFlatiron Books, 2022288p$18.99 (hardback)

Sonia Awale

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Unthinkable in the current climate

<figure><img width="759" height="422" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111152/63721e639c7e80680e0bd542jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption></figcaption></figure>The irony was not lost on Kim Stanley Robinson as he flew into New Delhi just as northern India <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/north-indian-heat-wave-hits-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">experienced a record-breaking heat wave</a> this week, -- exactly like the protagonist in his 2020 climate fiction book The Ministry for the Future.The first chapter of the book begins with an American aid worker named Frank in a small town in Uttar Pradesh in which everyone dies in a killer heat wave when the heat plus humidity ‘wet bulb’ temperature becomes unsurvivable.The maximum temperature in the Indo-Gangetic plains already exceeds 45 Celsius with some regularity, but that is usually in late May – not in April. It is almost as if India is marking Robinson’s visit with a heatwave, albeit a lot less lethal than the one he describes in his book.Still, if scientists are right about heat stress caused by the climate emergency,<a href="https://www.amazon.com/Ministry-Future-Kim-Stanley-Robinson/dp/0316300136" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"> The Ministry for the Future</a> may soon have to be relocated from the fiction section of book stores to the non-fiction shelves.As the author of his previous Mars Trilogy in which humans establish colonies on the red planet, Robinson’s book predictably dwells on scientists and world governments relying on geo-engineering solutions to cool down an over-heating planet.The Ministry for the Future, has a completely opposite take to the recent Netflix release <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/things-are-looking-up/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Don’t Look Up</a> about a planetary emergency. Here, the world comes together to set up a Ministry of the Future in Switzerland that is headed by a former foreign minister of Ireland named Mary Murphy who seems to be a cross between Mary Robinson and Gro Harlem Brundtland.In real life this week, the Indian heat wave is baking New Delhi even as a Buddhist American self-immolated himself at the steps of the US Congress building in Washington to protest the lack of action on climate change. It is a bit eerie that Robinson’s science fiction book has an eco-terrorist group that uses drones to down airliners to protest fossil fuel burning.But despite its dystopian tone, The Ministry of the Future has an uplifting message throughout with snarky humour in the 106 chapters. But overall, there is optimism that humanity can come together to act when faced with climate oblivion.The fiction comes closest to fact when dissecting the corporate greed that drives <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/climate-denial-in-the-himalaya/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">climate denial</a>, petro-state profiteers stuck in the fossil age, or despots who want to cash in on the chaos.Not to give it all away, but Mary Murphy eventually finds a way to coax the world’s central bankers to pay for decarbonisation and geo-engineering solutions like pumping water out of from underneath Antarctic glaciers, or dyeing the Arctic yellow to reflect solar radiation.Robinson visited Nepal to trek to Everest Base Camp in the 1980’s and was inspired to write a collection of novellas titled <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Escape-Kathmandu-Kim-Stanley-Robinson/dp/0312874995" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Escape from Kathmandu</a>.This week he was in India to deliver a keynote at a climate change conference organised by the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/dalai-lama-gets-block-of-glacial-ice/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Dalai Lama</a>, and admits: “In person, I am not as hopeful as I am in the book. I am terrified about mass extinction. I start with a mass casualty heatwave in India because I wanted to wake people up. I have tried to stick to the reality of the present, not something way into the future. But this is a work of utopian fiction.”The Ministry for the Future: A Novelby <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Kim-Stanley-Robinson/e/B000APVJXC/ref=dp_byline_cont_book_1">Kim Stanley Robinson</a>Orbit Books, 2020$ 20.10 on <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Ministry-Future-Kim-Stanley-Robinson/dp/0316300136">Amazon</a>, 576 pagesISBN 10 - 0316300136<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111152/63721e649c7e80680e0bd543jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="255" height="393">

Government for the future

The monsoon has got bad press because Nepal’s tourism operators actively told visitors to avoid <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/managing-the-monsoon?%2F">the rainy season</a>. It is time to change that. The reason can be found right here in the vast alpine meadows of Central Nepal where this time of year you can walk on velvet grass of pastures abloom with delicate pink, red and yellow flowers as the mist rolls up the valley. There is no sound except the hum of bumble bees. &nbsp;&nbsp; There are dozens of places across high Nepal called Chaurikharka, which means yak pasture. But this particular Chaurikharka in Rukum East located at an altitude of 4,000m stands out for its serene beauty, rustic charm and bucolic setting. There is just the occasional chime of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/when-yaks-go-so-does-culture">yak bells</a> in the distance, and the sharp whistle of herders corralling sheep. &nbsp;&nbsp; The grass shoots are so fragile that one hesitates to step on them, the rounded ridges appear and quickly vanish in waves of mist. With the<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/before-the-next-monsoon"> arrival of monsoon</a>, these meadows are a soothing shade of green dotted with millions of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/review/the-anatomy-of-a-flower?%2F=">multi-coloured flowers</a>. Until very recently, it took a week or so to hike up to places like Chaurikharka, but with the expansion of the road network even to these far-flung mountains in the lap of Dhaulagiri, they are much more accessible. It is just a three-hour uphill from the Mid-Hill Highway on the border between Baglung and Rukum East.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250802130828_a0b06b494d751b2144ffbbf10894ea64b29e8aed844bc8c66171783abfaf4e16.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20250802130828_a0b06b494d751b2144ffbbf10894ea64b29e8aed844bc8c66171783abfaf4e16" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1365" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon"> </figure>  Purists would say that such easy access devalues the sanctity of these remote high meadows, but it also means more people will be moved to treasure the experience, appreciate <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/natures-fragile-gift-to-nepal">the value of nature </a>so they can take steps to protect it.&nbsp; To be sure, the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/deadly-monsoon-in-nepal-turns-deadlier">monsoon season can be challenging for road travel</a>. The roads are rough even at the best of times, and in the monsoon they become muddy and treacherous, often blocked by<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/monsoon-deluge-in-nepal"> landslides</a>. But that could be precisely the kind of adventure that the more intrepid visitors crave. Improved road connectivity has already made Chaurikharka and places like Badimallika &nbsp;and other sacred lakes in the mountains of western Nepal popular with domestic tourists. What is driving this traffic is the urge to go to exotic new places and share videos and selfies on social media. Several of Nepal’s travel vloggers have visited Chaurikharka and popularised the place, enticing followers on TikTok or YouTube to retrace their footsteps. But even as they become more popular, these fragile and once-remote places should be protected from over-tourism.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110736_f97110b7cdc3e7f80d5877690948fc9f4c95a09c583deb23b07355491e6c5446.jpg" data-media-id="editor_8" data-image-id="20250731110736_f97110b7cdc3e7f80d5877690948fc9f4c95a09c583deb23b07355491e6c5446" data-rendition-name="original" width="1083" height="699" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon NT"> </figure>  <h2>INCREASING FOOTFALL</h2> Chaurikharka is located in Bhume Rural Municipality of East Rukum, near the scenic valley of Dhorpatan in Baglung district. Even in the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/monsoon-culture">middle of the monsoon</a>, there is a steady stream of Nepali hikers trooping to these high pastures – especially during festival days like Saune Sankranti which this year was on 17 July and actually marks the auspicious beginning of the monsoon here. “This year the rains have not been as heavy and there have been some clear mornings when we could see everything from Dhaulagiri to Machapuchre,” says Khageswar Bhandari, who trekked up here from the road. “The flowers, the greenery and the snowy mountain views make this an incredibly unique place.”&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250802130824_1b9e26f2e9853fdfe69154bb42a7c9ea6da4bf4940efc1da99b304dcfbd7d3d9.jpg" data-media-id="editor_10" data-image-id="20250802130824_1b9e26f2e9853fdfe69154bb42a7c9ea6da4bf4940efc1da99b304dcfbd7d3d9" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1152" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon"> </figure>  Chaurikharka is worthwhile to get to in any season, but it has a different charm during the monsoon. Word has spread and because it is now easy to get to from Baglung or even Pokhara, people have been flocking here.&nbsp; “Holidays and Saturdays see the largest crowds, with up to 500 visitors every day,” says ward chair Mankaji Pun of Bhume.&nbsp; There was a time not too long ago when local herders brought sheep, goats, cows, buffaloes, horses, and mules to graze here during the monsoon. Although there are still livestock around, animals have been replaced by visitors taking selfies. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-monsoon-and-nature-s-arithmetic">The monsoon, and nature’s arithmetic</a>, Tom Robertson Ward Chair Pun says infrastructure development is his main priority. A foot trail to Chaurikharka was built last year by the Tourism Division Office in Kohalpur, but access via the Raniwas-Koipa road section still remains challenging.&nbsp; “If we get more budget, we can improve the road and facilities to make Chaurikharka the main tourist attraction of this region,” says Bhume Municipality Chair Hom Prakash Shrestha. “After that, we hope to promote Chaurikharka as a top tourist spot.”&nbsp; Economic activity is also picking up with the arrival of visitors, but there seems to be a need to manage the makeshift sheds made of corrugated sheets that spoil the beauty of the place. Tea shops and lodges are also available but facilities are basic. Kuldeep Neupane took a three-day trip from Ghorahi in Dang to visit Chaurikharka recently, and says: “This is an ideal trip to make a quick getaway and let nature recharge your mind and body. And it is much more fun with a tent, to watch the sunrise over the Himalaya or the mist blowing in.”

Visit Nepal in the monsoon

Two weeks ago, Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli announced jubilantly on social media that Nepal had achieved a historic annual growth of 81.8% in exports. He was right. Nepal’s trade did take a great leap forward compared to last year. But the dramatic rise was mainly due to processed soya bean oil.&nbsp; However, Nepal does not produce the edible oil it exports. In fact, the soya and palm oil that make up 44% of total exports are imported from Southeast Asia and South America, and simply re-exported, mostly to India.&nbsp; Under the SAFTA (South Asian Free Trade Area) Agreement, Nepal can export products to India duty-free if it has at least 30% value-added. Nepal’s traders have taken advantage of SAFTA even though the edible oils they export do not reach that value addition threshold. “The 30% value addition requirement is often only on paper,” says former commerce secretary Purushottam Ojha. “It is clear that simply packaging edible oils in Nepal does not fulfil the terms of the trade agreement.” Prime Minister Oli is aware of this, and even called Nepal’s export figures “fake” at an earlier event. The government is relying on other iffy figures to suggest that Nepal’s economy is strong and getting stronger. For example, the value of imports rose by 13.25% in 2024-25 compared to the previous fiscal year.&nbsp; Some of it was due to a jump in electric vehicle imports worth Rs 31.76 billion, but mostly it was because more wholesale soya oil was imported to be re-packaged and sold in India. The very fact that the government boasts about increased imports is an indication of how much it relies on taxing them for revenue. Touting such trade figures cannot be the basis to claim an economic rebound.&nbsp; “A jump in the value of imports can be interpreted as an increase in purchasing power, but it is not evidence of a stronger economy,” says economist Keshav Acharya. “Even though imports have increased, Nepal's domestic production and productive capacity have not improved.” Nepal Rastra Bank's semi-annual economic activity study report shows that industrial production was down in the first six months of the last fiscal year. This despite an increase in the number of new industries registered and investment commitments. Out of the Rs70.2 billion proposed foreign investment, Nepal received only Rs17.9 billion last year.&nbsp; Meanwhile, the rate of capital formation was limited to 24% last year, which is lower than the year before, suggesting that new investment, job creation and economic expansion all declined. If domestic production does not improve in relation to this year’s inflated trade figures, the outflow will put pressure on foreign exchange reserves like it did three years ago. At that time, Nepal borrowed from the IMF under its Extended Credit Facility Program to kickstart the economy.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025080710084_2cdaaa5795828c4a7de93a0604ba884ef0a8b8f24cccd939f6c24e279ab6058f.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="2025080710084_2cdaaa5795828c4a7de93a0604ba884ef0a8b8f24cccd939f6c24e279ab6058f" data-rendition-name="original" width="1633" height="723" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal's bubble economy NT"> <figcaption>Source: NEPAL RASTRA BANK</figcaption> </figure>  The macroeconomy is on firm footing with foreign exchange reserves at a comfortable Rs2,520 billion in May, up 23% from last year. This was largely due to remittances, and partly due to a falling NPR exchange rate. Real estate transactions and the stock market index have also been climbing as a result of government policies to revive the sector.&nbsp; However, former executive director of Nepal Rastra Bank Nar Bahadur Thapa cautions: “This is not organic growth, it is the result of deliberate policy decisions to relax rules on real estate and stock markets transactions.” In reality, the sharp rise in land prices have increased the cost of production, and excessive monetisation of the real estate has become the main source of Nepal’s economic woes. The central bank has announced a slew of new policies, shifting the terms of loan repayment for industrialists and entrepreneurs, reducing interest rates, and injecting more working capital — all designed to inject adrenaline into the real estate and stock market sectors.&nbsp; When he was governor, Mahaprasad Adhikari made several financial reforms during the latter half of his tenure to stimulate the economy, including tightening credit flow.&nbsp; By the last fiscal year, additional financial reforms had resulted in a credit expansion rate of around 8%. As the pace of credit expansion slows, real estate prices have started to fall. This is actually beneficial to the economy, because it lays the foundation for improvements in land-related entrepreneurship, production, and the construction sector. Just because real estate and the stock market transactions increase, it does not indicate an economic turnaround — especially when manufacturing and productive sector continues to languish.&nbsp; “It is foolish to believe that real estate and the stock market have magically revived our economy. Agriculture employs more than half of the population, but it is in decline. Investment in the productive sector has not increased, and job creation has not increased.” Two years ago, Nepal’s industrialists, business leaders, and political leadership predicted a recession amidst a sluggish business, declining market demand, large-scale job loss, and a shrinking real estate and share market.&nbsp; Still, the economy grew by 3.36% in fiscal year 2023/24. In fact, Nepal’s economy has grown nominally over the last two decades even when all sectors of the economy are in decline.&nbsp; Says Keshav Acharya: “The growth in trade, real estate, and the stock market are bubbles. The real economy remains stagnant.”

Nepal’s bubble economy

The final investigation report on the crash of a Saurya Airlines jet on 24 July 2024 at Kathmandu airport has revealed flaws in the carrier’s technical operation procedures, poor monitoring by the Civil Aviation Authority of Nepal (CAAN) and gaps in the airport’s emergency response. Eighteen people including a child were killed, and only the captain survived as the plane plunged seconds after takeoff, crashing within the airport perimeter. This was the latest in a series of aircraft accidents in previous years, and further tarnished Nepal’s already poor aviation safety record and contributed to the country being retained in the EU’s air safety list. &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; The circumstances in the Saurya crash were different from the Yeti Airlines crash in Pokhara in January 2022 that killed all 72 on board, and two Tara Air crashes in February 2016 and May 2022 on approach to Jomsom that together claimed 45 lives. However, all four tragedies were a result of negligence of carriers and crew, failure to follow procedures, regulatory slackness, and overconfidence. The Saurya crash, especially, was a glaring example of how an ailing airline broke its own rules to allow passengers, including non-employees, a joy ride to Pokhara on a maintenance ferry flight. CRASH REPORT The Final Investigation Report prepared by the Aircraft Accident Investigation Commission and released on the first anniversary of the crash last week carried a long list of rules that were ignored or broken, and of regulatory failure. The first mistake was to cram spares, tools and inflammable chemicals needed for the aircraft’s C-Check in Pokhara into the cargo hold flouting its own ground handling procedures.&nbsp; There was no check-in of passengers, some of whom were not even employees – even though regulations say only flight and maintenance crew should be on board a maintenance positioning flight. Many brought their own luggage into the plane and stored it unsecured in the cabin. There was no flight attendant to give a safety briefing to passengers. The load and trim charts given to the flight crew were rough estimates, and the total takeoff weight of the plane was 18,300kg plus or minus 200 kg. That would still have been all right, but there was a glaring mistake in the speedchart Saurya pilots were using to calculate the minimum takeoff speed (known as VR), and it had been wrong ever since the 21-year-old aircraft entered service with the airline in 2017. FAULTY DATA&nbsp; The Commission probed Flight Data Recorder inputs from previous takeoffs of the Canadian-built CRJ200-LR in 2023-2024 and found that the undetected error in the speedchart had caused the plane to pitch up at an abnormal rotation rate at least 18 times on previous takeoffs.&nbsp; Any rotation rate more than 3°/sec is regarded as unusual. But on at least two occasions, this aircraft with tail number 9N-AME had rotation rates of 5.8°/sec and 5.5°/sec, the second one was when the pilot who survived was flying in March 2024.&nbsp; On this particular day, the plane’s rotation rate was 6.5°/sec, causing it to go into a deep stall soon after takeoff, the Commission report said. Essentially, the plane was not flying fast enough down the runway to take off safely.&nbsp; It is not yet clear whether excess weight, unsecured luggage, wrong centre of gravity were also factors, but relying on a faulty speedchart for the given takeoff weight, the captain flying pulled back on the yoke before the plane had reached takeoff speed and at a pitch angle that was too steep. The investigation report says the plane then went into a deep stall and started banking right with the stick shaking. At this point, the flight officer on the right hand seat is heard on the cockpit voice recorder saying: “Whoa, whoa, whoa. Sir, Sir, Sir…” It then banked left before the pilot flying turned the plane sharply to the right again in an evasive action to avoid the parking aprons of the international and domestic terminals. Had he not done so, there would have been a disaster of a much greater magnitude at Kathmandu airport that day. The plane scraped the runway with its right wingtip, collided with a container having helicopter spare parts, and plunged into a gully east of the runway, exploding in a fireball. The investigation also noted that the impact forces seemed to be survivable for some occupants. The fire trucks took unnecessarily long to reach the site even though it was inside the airport perimeter. The absence of an ICAO-standard runway strip, inadequate rescue drills, lack of training, and a blocked emergency service gate leading to the crash site were cited as other factors. &nbsp;&nbsp; <h2>Timestamp of a Disaster</h2>  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110724_39cdd04693994ce6e55a5b302905c0fa4884fe85bed21ff0779bb1439f3a5725.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20250731110724_39cdd04693994ce6e55a5b302905c0fa4884fe85bed21ff0779bb1439f3a5725" data-rendition-name="original" width="778" height="826" loading="lazy" alt="Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy NT"> </figure>  11:10:34 - The Saurya Airlines CRJ200 on the takeoff roll from runway 02. It had a takeoff weight of about 18,300kg, but the pilot’s speedcard had a previously undetected mistake about the minimum takeoff speed. 11:10:55 -The plane with tail number 9N-AME goes into deep stall soon after takeoff because it does not have enough speed to lift its weight. The plane also has an abnormally steep nose-up attitude.&nbsp; 11:11:03 - Without enough speed to generate lift, the plane banks right, then left and right again in CCTV photos taken from the domestic apron (below). If it had not banked right, it could have hit the aprons and terminal buildings. Seen parked is Saurya’s other CRJ200 with tail number 9N-ANM.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110732_608132f7225c649125cca2691dd6a6bf930984c5b359e888d7ad9e5eacce3afd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20250731110732_608132f7225c649125cca2691dd6a6bf930984c5b359e888d7ad9e5eacce3afd" data-rendition-name="original" width="770" height="555" loading="lazy" alt="Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy NT"> </figure>  11:11:08 - The plane scrapes the runway with its right wingtip, and falls into the gully. The captain is thrown off the left side of the cockpit and survives. 11:11:15: Plane explodes in a fireball inside the airport perimeter. Firefighters take time to reach the site because of lack of access road and a blocked gate. Read the full investigation report <a href="https://www.tourism.gov.np/files/9N-AME%20AIC%20Final%20Report.pdf">here</a>.

Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy

American artist Peter Makela was in Nepal in 2022 on a Fulbright scholarship when he experienced the Matya festival in Patan in which devotees made the rounds of the city’s shrines.&nbsp;
He joined the procession, walking through 2,600 stupa and 140 bahal of the town. That immersion left a lasting impression.
As part of Gallery Mcube’s international residency program in Patan, he put his inspiration to canvas in the exhibition Yala Yatra: Walking, Working, Worshipping. The exhibition also coincides with this month’s Matya festival.&nbsp;
Makela has visited Nepal often in the past 11 years but he mostly stayed in and spent his time around Boudha. “This time I stayed in Patan, put the sites I wanted to visit on my map, and off I went,” he tells us. “Each of my artwork is inspired by the stupas and shrines in Patan that I visited.”
The stupa and Ganesh are recurring motifs in his watercolours, and the elephant gods are located in chaityas — reflecting the interplay and blending of the Hindu and Buddhist faiths in Kathmandu Valley.&nbsp;
The stupas and Ganesh are painted in vivid red, yellow, blue and green against abstract backgrounds meant to represent the sky.
“I use the sky as a backdrop because the sky has no border,” says Makela. “The four colours represent the four elements, the different Buddha families and also lights bouncing off of a rainbow.”
The use of just four colours for all the artwork stands out, and combined with the absence of heavy canvases, frames or stands render Makela’s art striking in its simplicity.&nbsp;
The Ganesh is always holding something and the art also portrays the elephant god’s sacred vehicle, the mouse.
While his vibrant stupas and Ganesh reflect the tangibility of Patan’s tradition and heritage, it is as if the backdrops with their shades of grey and red and yellow capture the soul of the city’s shrines.
“If you look closely, there is a sense of form and formlessness at the same time,” he says.&nbsp;
Makela walked 108 kora around the shrines during his exploration of the town, and in the process developed a spiritual connection with Patan’s heritage and traditions.&nbsp;
The exhibition connects with visitors on a deeper, more spiritual, level as well. And with it, they feel a sense of pride as well as the need to urgently preserve Patan’s heritage for future generations.
“Peter’s inclination and approach towards Nepali art and culture is fascinating, and it reflects in his work,” says Mcube curator Manish Lal Shrestha, whose international artist residency program promotes Nepal’s cultural heritage. &nbsp;&nbsp;
Yala Yatra: Walking, Working, Worshipping
1-5 August&nbsp;
10AM-7PM
Gallery Mcube, Patan

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Walking, working, worshipping in Patan