<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109151116/636bb6929c7e80680e07bc6djpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1179" height="530"/><figcaption>In the next four decades, half of Japan’s population will be above 65. Last year, Japan signed an agreement with multiple countries, including Nepal, to supply 60,000 caregivers. Photo: Yoshi Shimizu WHO</figcaption></figure>The world’s 65+ population is growing faster than all other age groups, and by 2050, one in six people globally are going to be older than 65, compared to 1 in 11 in 2019. <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/need-to-prepare-for-ageing-society,3624" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/need-to-prepare-for-ageing-society,3624&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1601450810052000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEabSnnkGb5IbR5p3GtvU3cVlQuZQ">Nepal itself is ageing fast</a> even as overseas demand continues to grow for Nepali migrant geriatric caregivers.Even before the current health crisis, the care sector was already facing critical shortages worldwide. The OECD estimates that maintaining the current ratio of 5 workers for every 100 individuals above 65 will itself require 13.5 million more caregivers.As the deaths from Covid-19 worldwide exceeds 1 million, the pandemic has drawn attention to the lackluster situation of elderly care, inadequate staff, PPEs, high turnovers, and with a big share of Covid-19 deaths taking place in old age homes.There are signs that the demand for geriatric caregivers globally is on the rise. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/demand-grows-for-nepali-caregivers-in-israel/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/demand-grows-for-nepali-caregivers-in-israel/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1601450810052000&amp;usg=AFQjCNF6WWp9wdRH7BRrD_IJhBMYEI3UGA">A bilateral labour agreement between Israel and Nepal</a> to hire 500 more caregivers in the midst of the pandemic is expected to be signed soon. But even as Nepal mobilises frontline workers to help countries fight Covid-19, tens of thousands of current migrants languish overseas.Even traditionally closed countries which are concerned about social cohesion are now being forced to relax their admission policies for caregivers. Japan stands out as a striking example: 28% of its population is already 65, and this will increase to 50% in the next 40 years. The country hosts over 80,000 centenarians.The worker shortage, including in the care sector, led to a bilateral agreement between Japan and Nepal in March 2019 to mobilise workers under the Specified Skilled Workers (SSW) visa category. Japan is expected to hire over 300,000 workers over the next five years from <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/nepalis-from-chitwan-to-chidoya,4110" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/nepalis-from-chitwan-to-chidoya,4110&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1601450810052000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEQH1vGMZQFVLvY3-ti7Y4ZdClTOQ">several countries including Nepal</a>, which includes a quota for 60,000 care workers.But so far Nepal has not mobilised a single workers, and the SSW program itself has got off to a shaky start, meeting less than 10% of its target of recruiting over 47,000 foreign workers in fiscal year 2019.Even in the midst of the pandemic, Nepali migrants are re-migrating. Such is the desperation to provide for families, despite knowing the risks. But for many, remittance is the difference between being poor versus non-poor.<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/need-to-prepare-for-ageing-society,3624">A much older tomorrow</a>, Sonia AwaleEmigration of caregivers as the health crisis rages on seems counterintuitive. But we know from experience that restrictive policies fail.  When Israel banned Nepali caregivers in 2012, they chose to travel irregularly through India, paying exorbitant fees.<a href="https://thediplomat.com/2020/09/filipino-health-workers-protest-overseas-work-restrictions/">When the Philippines banned emigration of health workers during Covid-1</a>9 to ensure that its own health care requirements were fully met, very few took up the domestic job opportunity and pressured the government to release the ban. The response from Filipino Nurses United was: ‘It is a nurse’s right to seek better work opportunities and better pay outside of the country especially if the government cannot give this to us.”Nepal therefore needs a clearer stance on dealing with the increasing global demand for workers in the care economy. Of Nepali migrant workers emigrating overseas annually, only around 10% are women. But demand is rapidly growing in the female dominated care sector across more countries, including OECD members and East Asia.Without a vision on how to better manage migration in the care sector Nepali will continue to resort to irregular travels, allow exorbitant recruitment costs, provide skills training that are not recognised abroad, and let workers invest time and money in admission exams without success.<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepali-workers-stuck-in-no-mans-land/">Nepali workers stuck in no man's land</a>, Nepali TimesExperience shows that willingness to pay recruitment costs is higher for attractive destination countries. Nepal needs clear sector-specific policies and bilateral agreements that address the peculiarities of the care economy.All this while the share of <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/guest-editorial/guest-editorial-old-is-gold,876" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/guest-editorial/guest-editorial-old-is-gold,876&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1601450810052000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFoNW8Q9hgpAUFatmII18Ddjn5vHA">Nepal’s own elderly population is rising</a>. By 2028, Nepal will be an ‘ageing society’ with 7% of the population above 65, and the figure will double by 2054, making Nepal an ‘aged society’. In addition to <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/editorial-reaping-demographic-dividend,3621" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/editorial-reaping-demographic-dividend,3621&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1601450810052000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFIpeszyDgyJIjF817criKlQyDSUQ">reaping the demographic dividend</a> in the remaining decades, it is also a priority to make the society more <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=19599#.X3K_fsIzaUk" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id%3D19599%23.X3K_fsIzaUk&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1601450810052000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEy8Kf5STNLkzUcKg79iQnl_m3JCQ">geriatric friendly</a> for seniors who have additional care needs.With thousands of returnees with experience in the care sector, there is scope to mobilise them. Returnees from Israel report that a platform that would help them engage in collective initiatives in the professional care economy would allow them to use the skills and experiences to make a living in Nepal itself.It is cheaper for employers to invest in training in the origin country especially in healthcare, one of the rationales for <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/changing-the-headlines-on-migration/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/changing-the-headlines-on-migration/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1601450810053000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHL4dlzSM-qBVPZrdWmmnoGbsmvHA">skills partnerships</a>. Since destination countries like Israel and Japan are also Nepal’s development partners, there is scope to mobilise funds to design mutually beneficial skills training for geriatric care. This would help equip Nepal’s training centers as we transition rapidly into an ageing society.<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/business/caring-for-those-who-cared/">Caring for those who care</a>, Sikuma RaiCaregivers in countries like Israel and Japan enjoy equality of treatment with locals in employment, and earn between $1,000-1,500. But there is also illicit migration of other types of care workers such as household help, which is currently banned by the Nepal government.The Israel admission requires at least a high school education as well as completion of language and skills tests. In Japan, foreign caregivers require rigorous computer based language and skills tests. These are not options for most Nepali migrants taking surreptitious travels through India because of the ban, which makes them vulnerable to exploitation.The blanket ban on domestic care workers without addressing the rising international demand or credible alternatives for the women opting this path therefore remains ineffective.There is also support needed for ageing returnees. Yubraj is a second generation Gulf migrant following his father who spent his youth in the Gulf. There is no formal support system, and the father-and-son duo simply <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/from-letters-to-landlines-phones-to-facebook/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/from-letters-to-landlines-phones-to-facebook/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1601450810053000&amp;usg=AFQjCNE19sxq1QIX2ieVGaCMpfFYlesBnQ">switched their remittance transfer role</a>.The Nepal government’s policies such as promoting savings or investment of remittances through the Foreign Employment Savings Bond and Remit Hydro have failed to yield results. Countries like the Philippines allow migrants to contribute to their national social security system, and secure a safe future while they are still earning overseas. Nepal needs to explore these options and help current migrants plan for their future.Overseas work outside India, unless they travel irregularly, are formal and contract-based, so the employers can be held responsible to contribute to the social security funds.For example, Malaysia’s Social Security Organization (SOCSO) and Nepal’s Foreign Employment Board are set to sign an agreement providing workers and their dependents a range of benefits, especially related to work related injuries, illness or death. Employers are required to pay 1.25% of monthly wages while workers are not required to contribute.Nepal can easily enter into a similar Social Security Agreement with South Korea under the Employment Permit Scheme (EPS), similar to other EPS member countries like the Philippines that entered into an SSA last year that allow Filipino migrants to refund their social security contributions.<a href="https://nepalitimes.atavist.com/a-much-older-tomorrow" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://nepalitimes.atavist.com/a-much-older-tomorrow&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1601450810053000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGYSiKy9WyRnmNgU3tFMbwNgFOssQ">The future is older</a>, and it is also mobile. In this new demographic era, caring for the elderly is a policy priority in Nepal and globally which has implications on the future of labour mobility management, both for migrants as carers and as elderly returnees.Upasana Khadka writes this column Labour Mobility every month in Nepali Times analysing trends affecting Nepal’s workers abroad.

Upasana Khadka

original

674x448

610x380

500x500

400x266

400x240

400x203

301x200

The future is older

Sooner or later, governments around the world have to decide between economic survival and public health. The choice for politicians is between saving lives and livelihoods. Here in Nepal, no matter what the government thinks, the people <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/long-road-home/" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/long-road-home/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1587698648035000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFz9AACA7mTpEvll6sCUmzmMetINw">voted with their feet</a> leaving Kathmandu by the thousands this week.As they piled into crowded buses, many said that if the virus does not kill, poverty will.Yielding to public pressure, elected ruling party politicians have violated their own government’s lockdown rules to send thousands of constituents home from Kathmandu in buses this week. They had not shown as much concern about many others, including workers from India, who walked for days from Kathmandu in the past month after running out of cash and food.Nepal has been in <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/a-month-into-the-covid-19-lockdown/" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/a-month-into-the-covid-19-lockdown/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1587698648035000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGbvl6aqyeAw2U-46CTri6dmVpiQQ">complete lockdown now for a month</a>, the number of confirmed coronavirus cases stands at 45 with no fatalities, and the government has started thinking of  an exit strategy. Prime Minister Oli hinted as much at a meeting with MPs on Wednesday. “We will keep the border with India sealed, but we can start the process of partial re-opening within Nepal,” Oli was quoted as saying.		
							<figure><img width="2048" height="1364" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121116/636b8c939c7e80680e06b307jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>An Indian worker from Bihar at a brick factory in Bhaktapur, which is partially open as the Nepal government decides on a phasewise reopening of the monthlong lockdown when it ends on 27 April. Photo: MONIKA DEUPALA</figcaption></figure>Just what form a loosening of the lockdown will take is not yet clear, but public health experts have advised against opening the borders and restarting international flights just yet. In addition, they say certain hotspots like Udaypur, Kailali and parts of western Nepal where there have been cases of community transmission may need to be isolated for at least two more weeks.Sri Lanka, which has seen 254 confirmed cases and seven reported deaths has started lifting its COVID-19 curfew in two phases this week. In India, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has announced a staggered exit after the lockdown period ends on 3 May, and measures may include allowing travel within cities in the ‘green zone’, partial opening of government offices, mandatory masks and physical distancing, and a continued ban on flights and inter-state traffic. On Wednesday, India recorded the highest daily number of confirmed cases with 500, bringing the total to 15,859 and 652 deaths. In Indian states bordering Nepal, Uttar Pradesh has had 1,412 confirmed cases with 21 fatalities, while Bihar has recorded 126 cases and 2 deaths.While these numbers are negligible compared to India’s vast population size, public health experts say it is proof that India’s strict and unprecedented lockdown is working, but warn against lifting it too soon. They are especially worried about urban hotspots in cities like Delhi and Mumbai. Meanwhile, Bihar state has announced it will start reopening government offices this week, West Bengal is opening agriculture, construction, IT and industries. Kerala has even allowed restaurants to reopen, and let city buses and industries run. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/the-india-connection-in-nepals-covid-19-status/" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/the-india-connection-in-nepals-covid-19-status/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1587698648036000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEF1gG5vWUR25Rwes4fm2i1LQiaXg">What India does</a> has a direct bearing on Nepal because of the porous border and the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-and-india-stop-nationals-in-each-others-countries/" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-and-india-stop-nationals-in-each-others-countries/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1587698648036000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGE5Wv6ftAZfLFxblG-mIKJBkk2Qw">movement of each others’ nationals</a> across it despite it being sealed. Experts say Nepal’s phase-wise lifting of lockdown restrictions which are due to end 27 April, will necessarily have to mirror India re-opening. It is expected to entail limited local public transport with restrictions on passenger numbers, taxis with only one passenger within cities, no motorcycles, full mobility for agricultural activity and limited resumption of infrastructure, industry and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/shopping-therapy/" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/shopping-therapy/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1587698648036000&amp;usg=AFQjCNF5Mkm39XuZXqK7zUR2Drqh2zs32w">commerce</a>.The government’s biggest challenge now will be to have a contingency plan in place <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/uae-threat-to-send-back-workers-including-nepalis/" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/uae-threat-to-send-back-workers-including-nepalis/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1587698648036000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHOb8gtajoXpTLOhTpbcXihRPNE4A">in case Nepali migrant workers from Malaysia and the Gulf are sent home en masse</a>. In the short-term massive quarantine capacity will be needed, and after that hundreds of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-prepares-for-economic-fallout-of-pandemic/" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-prepares-for-economic-fallout-of-pandemic/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1587698648036000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHm_EOiXgHVa0E6E8_vw6-sf_eLlg">thousands of new jobs need to be created</a> in agriculture, tourism and manufacturing. Nepal’s travel trade employs a million people, and a strategy to reposition and kick-starting tourism will be critical.Says <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/survive-2020-revive-in-2021-and-thrive-in-2022/" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/survive-2020-revive-in-2021-and-thrive-in-2022/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1587698648036000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGvc41QkrQDnVCocH4Q7a6Oc32TTQ">Deepak Raj Joshi, former CEO of Nepal Tourism Board</a>: “We have to plan so that in 2020 we survive, in 2021 we revive, and in 2022 we thrive.”Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/the-india-connection-in-nepals-covid-19-status/">The India connection in Nepal’s COVID-19 status</a>, Nepali Times

1250x600

1084x550

Nepal’s exit strategy

<figure><img width="3732" height="2489" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121116/636b8bf59c7e80680e06b2d0jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Photos: BIKRAM RAI</figcaption></figure><img width="480" height="320" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121116/636b8bf99c7e80680e06b2d1jpeg.jpg" alt=""><img width="480" height="320" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121116/636b8bfa9c7e80680e06b2d2jpeg.jpg" alt="">Close to a month into the lockdown, hundreds of temporary migrant workers who have run out of money or been evicted by landlords, are trekking from Kathmandu across Nepal to reach their home districts. These photographs are of 47 daily-wage workers including their families were headed to Sindhuli district, 135km away from Kathmandu, on Saturday. They were living in Baudha, Harisiddhi and Kalanki and had day jobs mostly in construction. They could not get on the last buses before the lockdown was suddenly announced on 24 March. Running out of cash and food, the families finally decided to walk home. But locals in Lubhu reported the group to the police and they were taken into custody, and provided food. After much deliberation, the police coordinated a lorry to take them to their home district. They journey would have taken them four days if they had walked.<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/walking-3-days-to-get-home/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Walking 3 days to get home</a>, Sanjay Mishra <figure><img width="4017" height="2679" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121116/636b8bfc9c7e80680e06b2d3jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Temporary migrant workers at a shelter before they were allowed to leave on the lorry.</figcaption></figure><img width="640" height="427" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121116/636b8bff9c7e80680e06b2d4jpeg.jpg" alt=""><img width="640" height="427" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121116/636b8c039c7e80680e06b2d5jpeg.jpg" alt="">Since the nationwide lockdown, hundreds have been walking from Kathmandu along Nepal's main highways to get as far as Kailali district 600km away, sometimes walking for a week. A group of 60 including women and children have taken the old caravan route to Kathmandu from the plains via Bhimpedi. Locals are not cruel everywhere. A group called Damki Rocks has started free lunch and resting service in Bhimphedi for families walking home. In Province 5, the local government is helping families who are in transit through the province with food and shelter. In Banepa, the community has lined up shoes along the sidewalk along with water and food, which the trekkers can pick up.<a style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/lockdown-limbo-in-no-mans-land/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Lockdown limbi in no man's land</a>, Deepak Kharel <img width="3423" height="2282" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121116/636b8c069c7e80680e06b2d6jpeg.jpg" alt=""><img width="3920" height="2613" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121116/636b8c0a9c7e80680e06b2d7jpeg.jpg" alt="">Police along the way are torn between orders from headquarters to stop and return the families fleeing Kathmandu, and giving them humanitarian assistance. Some police on sentry duty have helped families hitch ride on vegetable trucks.The prime minister's office has been facing criticism for not being sensitive to the plight of stranded workers and their families, and had decided last week to allow two days for people from Kathmandu who wanted to get home and had even tried to organise buses. But the decision was rescinded by the Home Ministry.

Long road home

Nepal’s remittance-based economy has always been vulnerable to international upheavals like tension in West Asia, or economic downturn in Malaysia or Korea. An unexpected threat is the COVID-19 epidemic affecting countries where Nepali overseas workers are based.The country with the second-largest burden of disease outside China is South Korea where there are about 40,000 Nepali workers. Of the 14 new cases of COVID-19 detected in the UAE this week, two were Nepalis. There are about 200,000 Nepali workers in the Emirates.Qatar also has about 400,000 Nepali workers, and the country has now temporarily banned workers from Nepal and other countries. Qatar has so far detected 15 infected individuals. Cases have also been diagnosed in other West Asian countries with sizeable Nepali working populations: Bahrain (109), Kuwait (65), Oman (18) and Saudi Arabia (15).<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109101152/636b78919c7e80680e0646aajpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1286" height="845"/><figcaption>Nepali and Indian migrants watch a Bollywood movie inside their camp. Photo: PATTABI RAMAN</figcaption></figure>Last week Kuwait imposed travel bans on Nepalis, and last week 30 Nepali workers en route to Bahrain were returned from the UAE to Nepal.Public health experts say that workers are vulnerable because just one asymptomatic carrier of coronavirus can spread it to other workers living in crowded dorms. Some years, <a href="https://nepalitimes.atavist.com/nepalis-killed-in-the-line-of-duty" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://nepalitimes.atavist.com/nepalis-killed-in-the-line-of-duty&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1583932455482000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEV0UbWlcyVMChcESk9PvEUD4grQQ">up to 1,000 Nepali workers in the Gulf and Malaysia have died</a>, and this grim statistic could see an increase if the epidemic spreads.“There is no evidence yet that COVID-19 is present in the work camps, but all it takes is one infected individual to spread it among others, so they would need to be tested, and if they come out positive may have to be isolated,” says <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/why-nepal-must-watch-about-coronavirus-but-not-panic/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/why-nepal-must-watch-about-coronavirus-but-not-panic/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1583932455482000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHhQaqRD5MNUAzOdRqunMNh4SYvww">Sameer M Dixit</a>, a scientist at the at the Centre for Molecular Dynamics Nepal. “Nepal itself may have infected people who are not diagnosed.”<a href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/mers/index.html" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/mers/index.html&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1583932455483000&amp;usg=AFQjCNG1yY7OopjOVlX4l7N1Zz9CLnD7Sg">MERS (Middle East Respiratory Syndrome)</a> is another coronavirus epidemic in West Asia which has killed 855 and infected 2,500 people in the past eight years. Adds Dixit: “It is a pure miracle that MERS did not end up affecting Nepalis even though there was a much higher case-fatality rate of 34% compared to COVID-19.”The epicentre of the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/03/coronavirus-south-korea-declares-war-on-outbreak-as-who-experts-arrive-in-iran" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/03/coronavirus-south-korea-declares-war-on-outbreak-as-who-experts-arrive-in-iran&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1583932455483000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFK7z3Ss1hJAy_fo8UfyB9POm9-lg">Korea outbreak</a> is the city of Daegu which has many Nepali workers. There have been over 7,100 cases detected, and 50 deaths so far, but the Korean public health system has made sure that the disease is contained, and Nepalis there say they feel safe.‘Even foreigners living here illegally or without visas can get a free test without any questions,’ reads a Public Service Announcement by the South Korean government."Things are pretty normal around here," a Nepali worker who did not want to be named told us by phone. "Awareness about precautions is high among workers, and we are frequently updated by official announcements.” Nepali workers going to Korea are on <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/Korea-treating-Nepali-migrant-workers-right,2813" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/Korea-treating-Nepali-migrant-workers-right,2813&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1583932455483000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHRbO-3lrMz3h2uZy0lwDhM3oHP-g">a government-to-government Employment Permit Scheme (EPS)</a> and are required to pass a Korean language test, which means they can understand the COVID-19 updates.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109101152/636b78949c7e80680e0646abjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="720" height="540"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Nepali organisations like the Korea Sachetana Group are also active on social media, to share information and support fellow Nepalis. "Recently we arranged for masks for Nepalis who could not find them on the market,” the worker said.Another Nepali worker said his family back in Nepal was more worried than he was because they did not know about Korea’s strong health infrastructure. “In the media, they only hear about the infection rates and deaths going up,” he said.However, Nepali workers have been affected by a more general slowdown of the Korean economy, which depends on raw materials from China. Another Nepali at a small manufacturing firm says: “My work hours have been reduced, and I cannot do overtime anymore, I just earn my basic salary. But I am luckier than others who have been asked to stay home.”<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109101152/636b78979c7e80680e0646acjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2016" height="1134"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>The economic impact of COVID-19 is also felt back home, where the new batch of workers who completed the rigorous selection process for employment in Korea through the EPS have been asked to put off their departure until further notice. The same now applies for workers going to Qatar.In the UAE, one Nepali worker is impressed with the strict precautions taken by the authorities there to contain the virus. “Sanitisers are available everywhere, and medical checks are conducted frequently, with quarantine facilities. And they do not distinguish between nationalities and legal status of individuals."With tumbling oil prices, civil aviation has been affected globally, and Nepalis employed in the tourism sector and in airport ground handling, airline food preparation, customer service and air crews could take a hit.Workers talk of a visible slowdown in otherwise bustling Dubai. Occupancy rates in hotels are down, as are room rates. Malls and restaurants have fewer customers, and schools have been shut for four weeks.

Crossborder virus and Nepali migrant workers

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107171116/63692fbf9c7e80680e03c0c0jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000"/><figcaption>Mata Luhar, 55, of Badimalika Municipality, with her granddaughters. After the death of her husband, a shepherd, her two sons now work in Mumbai as security guards. Her name is not included in the list of the poor. Photos: NIMENDRA SHAHI</figcaption></figure>The Poor Household Identity Cards Program was designed as a social safety net for the poorest in the most isolated parts of Nepal, but it has been hijacked by local movers and shakers.The program uses 18 indicies like household fuel, access to education and social status to determine those who live below the poverty line. The pilot phase has been implemented in 25 districts including <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/from-nepali-press/Health,4099">Bajura</a> and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/from-nowhere-to-nowhere/">Bajhang</a> here in Province 7.Past surveys showed 64% of people in Bajura living below the poverty line, but that has grown to 71%. Similarly, Bajhang, which had 57% poor in 2009, now has 63% living below the poverty line. Why is this happening if the national poverty rate has gone down from 46% to 24%?The answer: the real number of poor has not grown, it is just that the well-off have gotten their names on the list to claim benefits. Households earning less than Rs19,600 a year fall under Category A extreme <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/guest-editorial/leapfrogging-poverty-in-Nepal-guest-editorial,960">poverty</a>. Those with less than Rs31,600 fall into the Category B, and Category C covers those who earn less than Rs40,000 a year.Even people who earned Rs25,000 a month and with property in the cities got themselves into the Category A list of the poorest. When asked, all of them said they have no idea who put them there. Most of the real poor are not listed, and even if they are, they fall in Category B or C.Janak Raj Giri is a well-known Bajura lawmaker from the NC, and even served as assistant minister for land reform in the Deuba government in 2002. His ID number in the poorest category is 266240. Giri says he has no idea how his name got there: "My mother was at home during the data collection, I was away. I do not know anything.”Rajit Bika is a sharecropper in Giri’s farm, but is not in the list or poor. Bika is a member of Haliya community of former slaves.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107171116/63692fc39c7e80680e03c0c1jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="689" height="704"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107171116/63692fc59c7e80680e03c0c2jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="690" height="704"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Ajay Bahadur Malla’s ID number is 269556. Far from being poor, he has served as UML District DDC member twice. Last year, he stood for the chair of Himali Rural Municipality, but was defeated and now runs a welding workshop and a transport company in Martadi. He also claimed he had no idea how he came to be classified as poor.Narabir Kami is the father of Rupchandra Biswakarma, a physician who heads the Bajura District Health Office. His name is listed in Category B (ID Number 216020). When asked, Biswakarma said, "I do not know how my father’s name got there. If true, I will have it removed.”It is the same story with accountant Khambir Buda, health coordinator Bhakta Kaila, Brij Bahadur Bam the father of school principal Prakash Bahadur Bam, and Ratna Bahadur Malla, the father of another teacher Dev Kumari.The list of well off people on the poverty list is a long one. The government prepared it after a survey and issued ID cards for those categorised as poor. Though the full benefits have not been announced, up to Rs50,000 will be provided for medical expenses and a Rs25,000 insurance to poor households with five members. It will pay 100% insurance premium for Category A, 75% for Category B and 50% of the fee for Category C poor.It has been ten years since the government banned <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/Modern-day-domestic-slaves-domestic-workers,3785">bonded laborers</a>, and although 1,500 Haliyas have been identified in Bajura, they have not been resettled and have received no compensation. Many still plough the fields of their former masters, and are not in the list of poor. Accountant Khambir Budha has got himself registered as a Category C poor, but Birkha Bhiyal, who works in his farm is not included.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107171116/63692fc79c7e80680e03c0c3jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1125"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>The situation in neighbouring Bajhang is no different. When he heard that his neighbours Dhan Bahadur Sunar and Pyaru Sunar were among the Category C poor, Gagan Badi was surprised because they are his employers.“How can this happen? They are landowners, since when were they poor? Maybe they paid off people to be declared poor,” said Gagan Badi, visibly irate.The Badi community in Bajhang are often victims of loan sharks who charge exorbitant interest, doctor documents and forge signatures. Yet, they are now ‘poor’, while the farmers they exploit are not on the list. In fact, four landless Badi families who beg on the streets are not in the list.The abuse of the poverty list is widespread in both districts. Rana Bahadur Kathayat heads the Bajhang District Post Office, owns a four-storey house in Chainpur, has his own vehicle and property. But he is listed as Category C poor.“I don’t understand on what basis they collected the data,” says Municipality chair Akkal Dhami, “the rich people are listed as poor while the poor are not listed.”Principal Wakil Bahadur Singh of Bannichaur School is the richest man in the village. He owns houses in Mahendranagar and Dhangadi and property in Kathmandu, Kanchanpur and Bajhang. He is Category A.It became so embarrassing that Bungal Municpality has stopped the distribution of IDs for the poor. “All the rich people from here have been enlisted as Category A, it is a travesty,” says Mayor Dhan Bahadur Bista.Other <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/trial-error-democracy,3713">local bodies</a> in Bajhang have also held back ID distribution. Barka Rokaya, Chair of Khaptad Chhanna Municipality said IDs will be handed out only after a through verification of the beneficiaries. Says Govind Malla of Himali Municipality of Bajura district: “The list has excluded the poor people. It is dominated by well-off people. We will correct the list.”Additional reporting by Basant Pratap Singh in Bajhang for Centre for Investigative Journalism- Nepal.Read also : <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/Nepal-%20Multidimensional-Poverty-Index,4115">28.6%</a>, Editorial Readers writeBreathtaking moral and financial corruption. Couldn't have happened without local authority's complicity.- <a href="https://www.facebook.com/dipankar1?fref=ufi">Dipankar De Sarkar</a>Excellent work by the journalist! Depressing to the extreme. The faces and dress of those who have been excluded tell the story of their pressing need for some support. Shame on the well-off for exploiting the system to their own advantage.-<a href="https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100009545858803&amp;fref=ufi">Sam Cowan</a>I am amazed at how people try to act innocent by saying I didn´t know I was listed there. But I have a feeling the same people will stand in a queue to collect the benefit. It's almost comical how everyone tries to come clean. The person responsible for collecting the data has a lot to answer for. Also great work on the part of journalist who broke the story.-<a href="https://www.facebook.com/samyek.shrestha?fref=ufi&amp;rc=p">Samyek Shrestha</a>So the fake poor claim not to know how their name got in the list... have they been using the facilities granted to their respective ID categories? If so, then they should be made to pay back all they have received; if they are honest, they would have told the authorities there was a mistake.-<a href="https://www.facebook.com/kalps.para?fref=ufi">Kalps Para</a>This is so commonplace in India-- those known as BPL families are the richer ones in the villages whereas the poorest one have the APL cards. I am not surprised that being a neighbor, Nepal is following suit. There should have been in-depth learning to understand the process in order to omit such situations before something is implemented. In this case, a study of this system in the neighboring country could have been done and a better plan could be devised to avoid such things.-<a id="js_ml" dir="ltr" href="https://www.facebook.com/namsnanu?fref=ufi&amp;rc=p" target="_self" data-ft="{&quot;tn&quot;:&quot;;&quot;}" data-hovercard="/ajax/hovercard/hovercard.php?id=1110662181&amp;extragetparams=%7B%22is_public%22%3Atrue%2C%22hc_location%22%3A%22ufi%22%7D" aria-describedby="u_12_1" aria-owns="">Namrata Sharma</a>

Nepal’s fake poor

India and Pakistan are twins separated at birth. Tensions between them have been at a hair trigger ever since independence and has erupted into full scale conflict at least four times in the past 80 years.
The 22 April terrorist attack in Kashmir that killed 25 Indian tourists and a Nepali citizen, threatens to escalate tension between the two nuclear-armed nations. India has squarely blamed Pakistan for the attacks, and Prime Minister Narendra Modi has given his military “operational freedom” to respond. Pakistan has said it has credible intelligence of an Indian military strike and its officials have promised a “full spectrum” response — a code for a <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/thinking-the-thinkable">nuclear retaliation</a>.
For Nepal, the killing of its national in the Pahalgam attack comes as another stark reminder that in conflicts from Afghanistan to Iraq, from <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/how-to-agree-an-armistice-in-ukraine">Ukraine</a> to Israel, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/10-nepalis-from-one-town-fighting-in-ukraine">Nepalis are getting caught in the crossfire</a>. The last time full-scale fighting broke out between <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/peacemongers-at-india-pakistan-border">India and Pakistan</a> on Kargil in 1999, at least 22<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/india-s-trial-by-fire-for-soldiers-from-nepal?%27%5C%22="> Nepalis fighting for the Indian Army</a> were killed in action.
Three of Nepal’s immediate neighbours (China, India, Pakistan) have nuclear weapons, and they do not have good relations. With China supplying weapons, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/war-and-warming">missile technology</a> and other support to Pakistan, this triangular friction could set off a regional conflagration.&nbsp;
<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-022-00573-0" target="_blank">Research at Rutgers University</a> has calculated that even a week-long tactical nuclear exchange between India and Pakistan would throw up so much smoke and debris into the atmosphere that it would block out the sun for years, and lead to a collapse of the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/grow-nourish-sustain-together-world-food-day">global food system</a>. This does not take into account the radioactive fallout that prevailing winds would blow up to <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/lives-on-the-line-in-the-himalaya">the Himalaya</a>, contaminating glaciers that are the sources of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/saving-what-is-left-of-himalayan-rivers">Asia’s main rivers</a>.
The impact of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/climate-breakdown-linked-to-thame-flood">climate breakdown </a>on High Asia was already ringing alarm bells about its <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/himalayan-icecap-melting-faster-than-thought">shrinking ice cap</a> reducing the dry season flow of water downstream. Water was going to be the next strategic commodity, geopolitical experts warned, and the next wars in Asia would be over water.
That water war is already happening. India retaliated to the Kashmir attack by suspending the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/24/world/asia/india-pakistan-indus-waters-treaty.html" target="_blank">Indus Waters Treaty</a> of 1960 mediated by the World Bank that has withstood at least three wars between India and Pakistan. The treaty gives India control over the three eastern tributaries of the Indus (<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beas_River" target="_blank">Beas</a>, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ravi_River" target="_blank">Ravi</a> and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sutlej" target="_blank">Sutlej</a>), while Pakistan got water from the Indus and two of its western tributaries (<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indus_River" target="_blank">Indus</a>, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chenab_River" target="_blank">Chenab</a> and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jhelum_River" target="_blank">Jhelum</a>.
Pakistan was assured of 70% of the annual flow, and India could use a reasonable amount of water for<a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=15231"> irrigation and hydropower</a>. &nbsp;Within days of its threat, India stopped water flowing down to Pakistan from the Chenab river and is reportedly preparing to do the same on the Jhelum.
The sabre-rattling has reached a crescendo. Besides threats and counter-threats there are also symbolic drills, with the Indian Air Force practicing landing on an expressway in Uttar Pradesh by its Rafale, Su-30 and Jaguar fighter jets to demonstrate ‘operational readiness’. In response Pakistan test-fired its Abdali ballistic missile that can carry a nuclear warhead and has a range of 450km.&nbsp;
The danger is that with ultra-nationalist rhetoric and the beating the war drums by both sides, India’s government and Pakistan’s military may have to ‘do something’ to appease domestic public opinion. But any tactical strike, an artillery exchange, or territorial incursion could quickly escalate out of control.
Expecting an Indian retaliation for the Pahalgam killings, Pakistan is using<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/interfaith-collaboration-for-nuclear-disarmament"> nuclear deterrence </a>and warning of “catastrophic consequences”. The two neighbours came close to a nuclear exchange in 2019 after an attack on the Indian military in Kashmir, and prompt international intervention led by the United States cooled tensions.&nbsp;
This time, the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/trump-shock-wave-hits-nepal">Trump administration</a> is too distracted and not as engaged. Pakistan has denied it was responsible for the terrorist attack and called on Washington to stop a possible Indian retaliation. India and Pakistan have stopped overflights by each other’s airlines, and some international carriers have even stopped flying over Pakistan fearing an air war.
Washington, Beijing, the UN and the EU have all urged restraint. Iran, which has good relations with both India and Pakistan has sent its foreign minister to urge both countries not to go into a tit-for-tat war. Iran has its own nuclear flashpoint to worry about with tensions in Israel, &nbsp;Yemen and Syria.
India and Pakistan both share similar problems of joblessness, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/why-nepal-s-poverty-rate-is-stuck">poverty </a>and <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/climate-change-new-threat-to-nepal-s-rhinos">environmental threats</a>. Neither side needs the threat of a senseless war, and we in the neighbourhood do not need it either.&nbsp;
Kunda Dixit
This Editorial is brought to you by <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/" target="_blank">Nepali Times</a>, in collaboration with <a href="https://inpsjapan.com/en/" target="_blank">INPS Japan</a> and <a href="https://sgi-peace.org/" target="_blank">Soka Gakkai International</a>, in consultative status with UN ECOSOC.

Nukes in the neighbourhood

The streets of Patan are alive this month with lavender jacaranda trees under rain-washed skies as <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/the-red-god-rises-again-in-patan">the chariot of Rato Matsyendranath</a> is pulled across town. This is the festival of the rain god, and inevitably the heavens opened up and pre-monsoon showers pelted the chariot as it started being pulled in Pulchok last week. Thousands of devotees, onlookers and the chariot procession organisers thronged the streets on the first day last week. The rhythmic cymbals and drums exuded a vibrant energy as the enormous four wheels turned and the chariot lurched.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025051007050_81df97744db16f732a419dc1f1579d235ce3df37642b078f50b83bd4bd026688.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="2025051007050_81df97744db16f732a419dc1f1579d235ce3df37642b078f50b83bd4bd026688" data-rendition-name="original" width="1000" height="1503" loading="lazy" alt="Divine chariot"> </figure>  The<a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/Red-rain-god,3141"> red rain god</a> has Hindu and Buddhist antecedents, alternatively called Bungadya and<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/kathmandu-s-gravity-defying-chariot-festival"> Karunamaya</a> — reflecting Kathmandu Valley’s syncretic mixture of the two religions.&nbsp; “Bungadya is a profoundly <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/12-full-opinion/marketing-the-intangible">intangible form of heritage</a>,” explains heritage expert Monalisa Maharjan. “It embodies traditional knowledge,<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/multimedia/reviving-nepal-s-craft"> artisanal skills passed down through generations</a>. Local communities and specific families have specified roles in being custodians of the heritage, ensuring their survival over the centuries.” There are many legends and stories about this annual tradition. Lichhavi king Narendra Dev is supposed to have brought Rato Matsyendranath from Assam to Kathmandu Valley to convince Guru Gorakhnath to lift a spell that created a two-year drought in Kathmandu.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250510050520_347a9a398f8a9abc4a7fb4e2774fde8264cccbdce8bdab23851ab3f0e73c3e8a.jpg" data-media-id="editor_6" data-image-id="20250510050520_347a9a398f8a9abc4a7fb4e2774fde8264cccbdce8bdab23851ab3f0e73c3e8a" data-rendition-name="original" width="1503" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Divine chariot"> </figure>  Matsyendranath was Gorakhnath’s mentor, and upon seeing him, the serpents were released, unleashing the rains. The chariot festival honours the return of this life-giving rain. The deity is seen as an icon for thriving agriculture, t<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/before-the-next-monsoon">he arrival of monsoon</a> showers, and the welfare of the community. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/the-reign-of-the-god-of-rain">The reign of the god of rain</a>, Vidhu Prakash Kayastha Till this day, the Rato Matsyendranath festival is no ordinary celebration. Patan does not sleep for a month as the chariot is pulled through various neighbourhoods. It unfolds at a state level with the president (formerly the king) attending the climax of the Bhoto Jatra in Jawalakhel later this month.&nbsp; The intergenerational transmission of tradition is unique in the world, and the reason the festival is one of the most vibrant cultural expressions that thrives despite inroads of modernity. The other unique aspect is that it is a transnational festival, binding Patan with Guwahati in the Indian state of Assam.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025051005058_8bc685ada13045d863b28e3eed91c931da2b510714586af6fd7eb5d1e298a24a.jpg" data-media-id="editor_9" data-image-id="2025051005058_8bc685ada13045d863b28e3eed91c931da2b510714586af6fd7eb5d1e298a24a" data-rendition-name="original" width="1000" height="1503" loading="lazy" alt="Divine chariot"> </figure>  “Unlike Nepal, where the deity commands grandeur and devotion, many in Assam are unaware of Rato Matsyendranath,” says Khagen Sharma of Gauhati University, which convened <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-assam-connection-revived">a symposium in February in Guwahati on the rain god</a>. Attending was a delegation led by Lalitpur Mayor Chiribabu Maharjan, organisers of the festival, and builders of the chariot. After the symposium, a committee was formed to explore and revive the tradition in Assam as well. Although the team had planned to visit Nepal this month, logistical challenges delayed the trip. Still, there are plans to build a Guru Matsyendranath statue in Assam to reestablish regular worship practices in the Guwahati shrine.&nbsp; The vines used to build the chariot in Patan are sourced from the jungles of Assam. But Sharma notes that in recent years unclear regulations have blocked the official import of the vines, although they are still brought to Nepal informally. The <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/makers-of-machhindranath,2204">chariot making</a> has also had a taste of modernisation in recent times. In the past, even a single nail or piece of steel was avoided. But over time, the wooden structure, particularly the shaft between the wheels, has been replaced with bronze. When that too proved unstable, metal clamps were introduced, which have become a pragmatic compromise.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250510050524_b2a819a5791612f14c81d30fc393dbd3f99f0c64b90a9110e8b0855d944bfa93.jpg" data-media-id="editor_12" data-image-id="20250510050524_b2a819a5791612f14c81d30fc393dbd3f99f0c64b90a9110e8b0855d944bfa93" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="998" loading="lazy" alt="Divine chariot"> </figure>  Another welcome change is the focus on safety. Builders climbing the chariot’s tower now wear harnesses and there are efforts in crowd control. The most visible change in recent years has been the involvement of Patan’s enthusiastic youth in the festival — the tradition is now passing to a new generation. Says Matsyendranath expert Vidhu Kayastha: “There is more energy, the young people in red t-shirts this year were very organised, these modern touches aren’t diluting our culture, they’re keeping it alive in new forms.” He adds, “We are <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/searching-for-a-homeland-away-from-home">reconnecting with our roots</a>, we have more resources, more awareness than ever before. We must not be swept away by western values that may not serve us, and in some ways, cause more harm than good. We must revive our own culture.”&nbsp;

Divine chariot

In 2025, two seemingly disconnected acts of violence shattered the illusion of stability in the region. In March, <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/16f7f947-1e96-4206-9844-891378adc683" target="_blank">militants hijacked a passenger train</a> near the Bolan Pass in Balochistan, executing soldiers in cold blood. A month later, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/22/world/asia/kashmir-terrorist-attack.html" target="_blank">gunmen in Kashmir’s</a> Pahalgam Valley massacred tourists. 
In both Islamabad and New Delhi, <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/4/25/were-cursed-kashmiris-under-attack-across-india-after-pahalgam-killings" target="_blank">the reaction was reflexive:</a> condemn the violence, <a href="https://www.economist.com/asia/2025/04/22/india-and-pakistan-could-come-to-blows-over-kashmir" target="_blank">blame external enemies</a>, declare the situation contained. But South Asia’s leaders are not fighting terrorists alone. They are fighting the consequences of their own betrayals.
Across <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-26272897" target="_blank">Balochistan</a>, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-south-asia-11693674" target="_blank">Kashmir</a>, <a href="https://www.crisisgroup.org/asia/south-asia/india/346-finding-way-out-festering-conflict-indias-manipur" target="_blank">Manipur</a>, and beyond, decades of <a href="https://www.amnesty.org/en/projects/enforced-disappearance-in-south-asia/" target="_blank">enforced disappearances</a>, broken promises, and brute militarisation have hollowed out the social contracts meant to hold these nations together. The grievances that drove rebellions from the 1940s through the 1990s – demands for dignity, recognition, and political agency – were never meaningfully addressed. They were buried beneath asphalt and propaganda, paved over by development projects and security checkpoints.
States may claim victory. But their victories are mirages, dissolving the moment anyone looks too closely. South Asia’s unfinished wars are not relics of a violent past. They are live ammunition, loaded into the future.
<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/mar/24/he-only-wanted-revenge-the-bloody-insurgency-in-balochistan-gaining-lethal-momentum" target="_blank">Balochistan</a> has been at war with Pakistan for most of its modern history. Rich in gas, minerals, and coastline, the province has been plundered for decades under the language of national development. 
Projects like the <a href="https://eastasiaforum.org/2020/11/26/pakistans-three-evils-cpec-and-good-governance/" target="_blank">China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)</a> promise progress but deliver exclusion: minerals are mined, ports are secured, but Baloch homes are raided. 
The insurgency endures not because of foreign conspiracies, as Islamabad endlessly insists, but because the Pakistani state remains incapable of seeing its <a href="https://thebalochistanpost.net/2025/01/enforced-disappearances-in-balochistan-in-december-2024-tbp-report/" target="_blank">Baloch citizens</a> as anything other than a security problem to be managed.
In <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/ranisingh/2016/07/12/kashmir-in-the-worlds-most-militarized-zone-violence-after-years-of-comparative-calm/" target="_blank">Kashmir</a>, the Indian government claims to have <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/08/world/asia/kashmir-village-defense-committees.html" target="_blank">“normalised” the valley</a> after revoking its autonomy in 2019. It <a href="https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/conflict-between-india-and-pakistan" target="_blank">looks a lot like occupation</a>. Soldiers outnumber local leaders, dissent is criminalised, internet shutdowns suffocate public life. Tourism campaigns and investment summits cannot erase a generation raised under curfew and surveillance.
<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-66260730" target="_blank">Manipur’s descent into ethnic bloodshed</a> in 2023 exposed another fault line Delhi prefers to ignore. Long-simmering tensions between the Meitei and Kuki communities erupted into violence that shattered any illusions of northeastern integration. The central government’s delayed, politicised response made clear what many Manipuris had always suspected: they are citizens of India only when convenient.
Even the <a href="https://msf.org.au/rohingya-worlds-largest-stateless-population" target="_blank">Rohingya, stateless and exiled from Myanmar</a>, find themselves entangled in South Asia’s ethnonationalist calculus. Fleeing genocide, they are criminalised anew in Bangladesh and India – trapped between the countries that reject them and the memories that refuse to let them go.
South Asia’s states have excelled at suppressing rebellion. But failed at extinguishing the reasons rebellions rise in the first place. And the wars South Asia tries to forget at home have found new life abroad.
Across <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-06-17/modis-indian-government-accused-of-spying-silencing-critics/103974414" target="_blank">Canada, Australia, Britain, and the United States</a>, diasporic communities have become memory-keepers and, increasingly, <a href="https://www.business-standard.com/world-news/khalistan-supporters-hold-protest-outside-indian-consulate-in-vancouver-123092600087_1.html" target="_blank">the agitators</a> for the struggles their home states would rather erase.
Khalistan flags fly outside Indian consulates in Vancouver and <a href="https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/punjab/perturbed-over-waving-of-khalistani-flags-at-an-event-in-melbourne-india-warns-australia-of-khalistan-separatists-and-their-links-with-terror-groups-458320/" target="_blank">Melbourne</a>. Tamil activists march through London, demanding accountability for the <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/5/19/grim-reminder-sri-lankas-tamils-mark-15-years-since-end-of-civil-war" target="_blank">massacres in Mullivaikkal</a>. Kashmiri protests in Washington and New York refuse to let India’s crackdown slip into diplomatic amnesia.
For host countries, these movements pose uncomfortable questions. Freedom of expression collides with fears of extremism. Clashes erupt between communities carrying wounds that their new homelands.
Meanwhile, South Asian states pursue their adversaries across borders. India faces allegations of <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/canada-says-india-home-minister-ordered-campaign-against-sikh-activist-rcna177972" target="_blank">targeting Sikh activists for assassination in Canada</a> and the <a href="https://www.npr.org/2024/10/27/g-s1-29561/sikh-separatist-assassination-india" target="_blank">United States</a>. Pakistan continues to court Kashmiri separatists abroad while crushing Baloch dissent at home. <a href="https://apnews.com/article/sri-lanka-tamils-civil-war-dead-5b372b0bba567837c5a4d94250040e7d" target="_blank">Sri Lanka</a> lobbies furiously to brand Tamil diaspora organisations as fronts for terrorism, even as it stonewalls investigations into its own wartime atrocities.
The old insurgencies have not been defeated. They have been globalised. South Asia’s governments have long mistaken silence for stability.
In Punjab, India broke the back of the <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/06/india/india-canada-sikh-khalistan-analysis-intl-hnk/index.html" target="_blank">Khalistan insurgency</a> through brute force. The fields grew green again, the trains ran on time. But the wounds were never closed, the <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/why-is-indias-khalistan-separatist-movement-on-the-rise/a-65081729" target="_blank">movement’s heart beats</a> not in Amritsar but in Brampton and Surrey.
In Sri Lanka, the <a href="https://www.academia.edu/4738983/The_Man_Who_Destroyed_Eelam" target="_blank">military crushed the Tamil Tigers</a> with <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2011/01/17/death-of-the-tiger" target="_blank">overwhelming brutality in 2009</a>. <a href="https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3264148/we-want-our-children-back-sri-lankan-families-still-demanding-justice-their-missing-loved-ones" target="_blank">Tamil families still search for their missing</a>, still mourn their dead – and still organise across the diaspora for justice that remains undelivered.
In Kashmir, Delhi boasts of new <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2023/2/4/kashmir-is-bleeding-its-economy" target="_blank">highways and investment corridors</a>, showcasing the region as a trophy of unity. But when the visitors leave and the cameras are packed away, <a href="https://harvardlawreview.org/print/vol-134/from-domicile-to-dominion-indias-settler-colonial-agenda-in-kashmir/" target="_blank">the checkpoints, the raids, and the quiet despair remain.</a>
Victory parades fade. Grievance endures. Suppressing insurgency may end battles. It does not end the ideas that fueled them. In a region where <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/23/world/asia/kashmir-attack-india-pakistan.html" target="_blank">history is rarely past</a>, and memory is rarely voluntary, states that rule through repression are only ever buying time. And often, not very much.
South Asia’s unfinished wars are not accidents. They are the inevitable consequences of states that confuse conquest with consent, and erasure with reconciliation. They cannot legislate memory out of existence.
Every <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c15qyyzz89lo" target="_blank">disappeared son in Balochistan</a>, every <a href="https://medium.com/the-wvoice/the-half-widows-in-kashmir-fef80c6b88e9" target="_blank">half-widow in Kashmir</a>, every <a href="https://www.doctorswithoutborders.org/what-we-do/focus/rohingya-refugee-crisis" target="_blank">refugee child born stateless in a Rohingya camp</a> carries forward the memory of betrayal – a memory that outlives soldiers, politicians, and peace accords alike.
The region’s future will not be decided by GDP figures or infrastructure projects alone. It will be decided by whether its governments can summon the political courage to face the truths they have long suppressed – or whether they will continue down a path <a href="https://theconversation.com/india-is-using-the-g20-summit-to-further-its-settler-colonial-ambitions-in-kashmir-205166" target="_blank">where forgetting is demanded</a>, and rebellion becomes inevitable.
Shyam Tekwani is a professor at the Daniel K. Inouye Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies in Hawaii. This <a href="https://dkiapcss.edu/nexus_articles/ghosts-at-the-border-south-asias-unfinished-wars/" target="_blank">article</a> was originally published on <a href="https://dkiapcss.edu/security-nexus/" target="_blank">DKI APCSS Security Nexus.</a> The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of DKI APCSS, the Department of Defense, or the US Government. The appearance of external hyperlinks does not constitute endorsement by the United States Department of Defense (DoD) of the linked websites, or the information, products, or services contained therein. DoD does not exercise any editorial, security, or other control over the information you may find at these sites.

Balochistan to Kashmir

Most Nepalis thought they had seen the last of it after <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/11-56-25-april-2015-wkc9q2an">the 25 April 7.8 magnitude </a>earthquake ten years ago. But the Himalaya had more surprises in store. On 12 May, another 7.3 magnitude tremor that some said was an aftershock, but was strong enough to itself be a major earthquake, struck Dolakha.&nbsp; Not many people had heard of Singati till then — a cluster of houses by the Tama Kosi River along a narrow gorge that is the roadhead to Rolwaling Valley.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250508110520_57b6e316656851f71eca56ca6f98d9bbcc820c1a00d62af3c990725b4361244d.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20250508110520_57b6e316656851f71eca56ca6f98d9bbcc820c1a00d62af3c990725b4361244d" data-rendition-name="original" width="1000" height="1500" loading="lazy" alt="Climate magnifies earthquake risk in Nepal village NT"> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250508110520_016534fb2b6a79957402281cda768efb83a146786377e39e11df3e251d37159e.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20250508110520_016534fb2b6a79957402281cda768efb83a146786377e39e11df3e251d37159e" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Climate magnifies earthquake risk in Nepal village NT"> </figure>  It was here that dozens were killed on 25 April in the first earthquake. Hundreds of <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/Singati-rising-from-rubble-rebuilding,3703">Singati survivors</a> had lined up for food and relief supplies in the morning of 12 May when the second earthquake triggered a rock slide that buried a nearby camp. At least 50 people were killed. &nbsp; Three hours later, a US Marine Corps UH-1Y Venom helicopter landed in a nearby cornfield to pick up the wounded, and flew off. The aircraft lost contact with air traffic control in Kathmandu and its wreckage was located high on Kalinchok four days later. Six American servicemen, two Nepal Army soldiers, and five wounded civilians from Singati were killed. Today, Singati bears little physical scar of the multiple tragedies that struck the town ten years ago. Most <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/multimedia/bungamati-builds-back">houses have been rebuilt</a> as urban-style concrete structures, and Singati has become an economic hub on the road leading up to several hydropower plants and a<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/off-the-beaten-trek-in-nepal"> popular trekking destination</a>.&nbsp; The town looks less like a village and more like a suburb of the Dolakha district headquarter of Charikot, 47km away.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250508110520_196f341d1df1403ba133e5dfeb837eec20d7cbcb4c8c56b17cc5598810de5df2.jpg" data-media-id="editor_6" data-image-id="20250508110520_196f341d1df1403ba133e5dfeb837eec20d7cbcb4c8c56b17cc5598810de5df2" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Climate magnifies earthquake risk in Nepal village NT"> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250508110524_ae66c4a92430f67db51b5e11e017059eedfbac4cb18c8e073f2a50cca1fe904e.jpg" data-media-id="editor_7" data-image-id="20250508110524_ae66c4a92430f67db51b5e11e017059eedfbac4cb18c8e073f2a50cca1fe904e" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Climate magnifies earthquake risk in Nepal village NT"> </figure>  “The demand for construction material, cement, iron rods and bricks peaked after the earthquakes,” says Suresh Khadka, who owns a hardware business here and now supplies material to the 456MW Upper Tama Kosi hydropower project that is undergoing repairs after it was damaged by a landslide last year. The demand for cement boomed since most residents believe, not necessarily correctly, that <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/in-a-disastrous-state">cement houses are safer</a>. Although Khadka did well selling construction material after the earthquake, he worries that most new structures do not follow seismic-resistant building codes.&nbsp; The construction boom financed by bank loans has in turn forced many from Singati to <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/making-overseas-migration-better">migrate overseas for work</a> so they can service their debt.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250508110524_50caa4530bd5ff9120cf7ab70a62173846d337ef448ff8bac339f3faa375a9e2.jpg" data-media-id="editor_10" data-image-id="20250508110524_50caa4530bd5ff9120cf7ab70a62173846d337ef448ff8bac339f3faa375a9e2" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Climate magnifies earthquake risk in Nepal village NT"> <figcaption>Suresh Khadka</figcaption> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250508110520_ef8b7d3993fc3b5df852bbf952feb3fbabc96d6883b0d5eb74ee5c60f4123b83.jpg" data-media-id="editor_11" data-image-id="20250508110520_ef8b7d3993fc3b5df852bbf952feb3fbabc96d6883b0d5eb74ee5c60f4123b83" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Climate magnifies earthquake risk in Nepal village NT"> <figcaption>Phu Doma Sherpa (right)</figcaption> </figure>  “My family had no choice but to borrow money to rebuild our home since the government compensation was not enough, and ten years later we are still paying off the loan,” says Phu Doma Sherpa, 60. Because of the shortage of qualified masons and proper seismic engineering, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/structural-problems">many of the buildings are of questionable building standards </a>and the traditional architecture has been abandoned, admits Kul Bahadur Budathoki, deputy chair of the municipality. “But these buildings were more expensive than what the government grants could cover, many people here are heavily in debt and the men have <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/every-day-is-closer-to-pay-day">migrated to the Gulf to pay their loans</a>,” Budathoki says.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250508110520_32f89e97b7e757fc9286c0bbb671f48ea8d4468e9634fa646d7247c650ad8480.jpg" data-media-id="editor_14" data-image-id="20250508110520_32f89e97b7e757fc9286c0bbb671f48ea8d4468e9634fa646d7247c650ad8480" data-rendition-name="original" width="1501" height="1079" loading="lazy" alt="Climate magnifies earthquake risk in Nepal village NT"> <figcaption>Kul Bahadur Budathoki</figcaption> </figure>  Singati is in a multi-hazard zone. The <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/Singati,3091">12 May 2015 earthquake </a>could have led to the collapse of Nepal’s largest glacial lake, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/stairway-to-heaven">Tso Rolpa</a>, upstream. Due to global warming, the glacier has turned into an expanding lake 3.5km long, and its collapse would have unleashed a catastrophic Himalayan tsunami down the Tama Kosi Valley, with Singati directly in its path. Singati has literally risen from the ashes of 2015, with its residents beginning to recover from the trauma and financial toll. But it is not out of danger as <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/climate-breakdown-linked-to-thame-flood">climate breakdown </a>magnifies the risk from future earthquakes.

labourers