We have long speculated on the moment when the shift of global leadership from the United States to China would take place. From Washington to Beijing for the political power, from New York to Shanghai for the economic one. It seems that we are witnessing it now.Some saw the Beijing Olympics (2008), others marked the Asian Investment and Infrastructure Bank (2015) to replace the Bretton Woods system, a fundamental pillar of North American hegemony.Presidents Obama and Xi Jinping confirmed a de facto bipolar global regime manifested in the two leaders’ pact on climate change that made the <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/kundadixit/2017/04/12/horror-story-of-a-climate-calamity/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">2015 Paris Agreement</a> feasible.However, with the arrival of Donald (Make America Great Again) Trump there was an escalation of this quarrel for global leadership. The trade war between the two countries, with the World Trade Organisation held hostage, or the open battle over the control of 5G, with the Huawei controversy at its the core were two recent examples.<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-climate-connection-to-covid-19/">Climate connection to COVID-19</a>, Rastraraj Bhandari<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121120/636b8d9a9c7e80680e06b357jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="800"/><figcaption>President Donald Trump's visit to China in 2017.</figcaption></figure>China is on a full-fledged offensive to increase its presence and influence in the multilateral system to fill a vacuum left by the Trump administration, by obtaining important positions to influence these institutions. The US administration has vacated for more than three years the position of ambassador in Geneva, a city with most diplomatic activity in the world.China stepped in by appointing a new high political-profile ambassador in November last year. However, the positions of the battles for the future of the WTO or the leadership of the International Telecommunication Union (key in the management of satellite orbits, the management of radio space or digital world governance) were already well advanced at that time.Then, in November last year something happened in the Huanan market in Wuhan. But it was not until 31 December that an ‘outbreak of an unknown pneumonia’ in this city was reported to the World Health Organization (WHO).<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/pompeo-accuses-who-of-failing-in-basic-duty/">Pompeo accuses WHO of “failing in basic duty”</a>, Kunda DixitThe Huanan market was closed down on 1 January. The following day the new virus was confirmed, with the technical name of SARS-CoV-2. On 16 January, Japan reported its first case, on the 17th it was Thailand did. Taiwan and the United States reported first cases on 21 January, and France on 24th.On 30 January the WHO declared an International Public Health Emergency, the same day that Italy reported its first case. The next day it was Spain at the same time that the virus was already spread in India, Russia, the Philippines or Australia. On 11 March the WHO declared the global pandemic and, while the world trembles, global leadership transits.On 20 March, while the White House or Downing Street were still flirting with denialism in relation to COVID-19, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced a plan to support 82 countries in their fight against this virus.Two weeks later, as the virus wreaked havoc on hospitals on both coasts in the United States, and the British Prime Minister was admitted to the ICU, 18 countries in central and western Africa had already received hundreds of tons of Chinese donations of medical supplies, and 17 more were waiting to receive them in a matter of days.<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/a-covid-19-third-wave-in-the-third-world/">A COVID-19 third wave in the Third World?,</a> Ed Holt, IPSPakistan, South Korea, Spain or Italy are other countries that have received help. In the latter, this help was not only of material, but accompanied by experts and medical staff.Putin’s Russia also took advantage of the pandemic in the first weeks to project its role as international power by sending military personnel to Italy – in a context of astonishing silence and blockage of the European institutions -- or aid in health supplies to his ‘friend’ Donald Trump.And even as COVID-19 spreads through Moscow and other cities and regions of the Federation these rather symbolic activities continue. Turkey also tried, by responding to Spain’s NATO urgency request, but soon changed its policy once they realised how the situation was deteriorating in Ankara and Istanbul itself.It is too early to evaluate the full scope of COVID-19. In fact, no one can really assert at this point what the evolution and global impact of the pandemic will be, neither in terms of public health, nor in its humanitarian, social or economic dimensions.<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/climate-covid-19-and-china/">Climate, COVID-19 and China</a>, Rastraraj BhandariThe outlook is not good, and particularly worrisome is the uncertain effect that this pandemic will have in less developed countries, considering how it is affecting higher-income ones.However, it is quite clear that this will be a turning point in terms of global governance and hegemony. Once again, the arbitrariness of history precipitates change. The strategists, the intelligence agencies, the think tanks that for years have debated and conspired from Langley through Georgetown, Xijuan or Gouguan had not foreseen what would end up igniting in a provincial market in Wuhan.But what does seems plausible is that, in the midst of such drama, we are witnessing the handing over of global hegemony.<a href="http://www.ipsnews.net/author/manuel-manonelles/">Manuel Manonelles</a> is director of the Foundation for a Culture of Peace in Barcelona.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121120/636b8d9d9c7e80680e06b358jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="94" height="134">

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COVID-19 and the global power balance

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110814110/636a52e69c7e80680e05231fjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1826" height="507"/><figcaption>Lhotse glacier, Chukung village to the far left. Photo: ALTON C BYERS</figcaption></figure>Most of the recent talk within the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) process and elsewhere has focused on <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/decarbonise-now/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">cutting greenhouse gas emissions</a> to reduce the impact of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/weather-warning-for-climate-meeting/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">climate change</a>.<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/from-playing-victim-to-proactive-leadership-on-climate/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Mitigation</a> was the buzzword, and any mention of adaptation was avoided because for some it meant accepting defeat. But today, driven largely by the concerns of developing countries, which bear the brunt of the climate emergency, adaptation is the key issue. But since adapting to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/climate-damage/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">climate change is so closely linked with issues of power, governance and politics</a>, it is not well understood. Successfully adapting to climate change is often based on how individuals, households and communities switch and improve livelihoods.Given Nepal’s geographical, climate and ecosystem diversity from plains to mountains, the question is: what do people actually adapt to? Is it <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/turning-on-the-heat/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">rising temperatures and heat</a>, erratic rains, droughts, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/flood-of-recrimination/">floods</a>, forest fires or increased rates of diseases?Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/living-below-nepals-melting-mountains/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Living below Nepal's melting mountains</a>, Alton C Byers <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/look-whats-cooking-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Look what's cooking in Nepal</a>, Anil ChitrakarFamilies in <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/a-terrifying-assessment-of-himalayan-melting/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">high mountain valleys</a> may not have to worry about floods, but are affected when roads are blocked, severing access to markets. Those in the mid-mountains may be badly impacted by landslides, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/nepals-silent-emergency-springs-going-dry/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">drying springs</a>, or declining agriculture production due to droughts.An adaptation strategy that works in an isolated mountain settlement will not work in Kathmandu. Though <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/climate-climax/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">climate change</a> is a global problem, its impacts are very local and different. National-level attempts to adapt will thus be unsuccessful, yet global conversations and the resultant aid flows continue to ignore sub-national differences.In 2001, the UNFCCC established a program for least developed countries that included financial and technical support to prepare National Adaptation Plans of Action (NAPA) to meet ‘immediate and urgent’ adaptation needs. Today the conversation has moved to National Adaptation Plans (NAP) that focus on integrating climate risks into development planning and implementation.Nepal was late in preparing its NAPA, which turned out to be a temporary blessing in disguise. Using additional donor funding, the Ministry of Science Technology and Environment prepared a NAPA 'Plus' in 2009, which included a more consultative process to capture local nuances. In 2011, Nepal formulated a LAPA framework and also promulgated a climate policy stipulating that 80% of resources earmarked for the climate crisis would be allocated to local levels.Donor support was available and the country implemented LAPA programs in a few selected regions. But we still don’t know if the resources were really spent in rural areas, or if they made any difference.There are three major challenges for successful adaptation to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/on-thin-ice-in-the-khumbu/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">climate impacts</a>. First is attribution: a localised weather event cannot be directly linked to climate change. Second relates to how people and institutions respond to new climate shocks, usually by <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/living-below-nepals-melting-mountains/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">local people meeting local needs</a>.Finally, individual adaptation strategies are most successful and enduring when people have access to drinking water, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/look-whats-cooking-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">clean energy</a>, information, finances and alternative sources of income, as well as the right to organise, express their voices and access political outlets.Given the rapid spread of the climate emergency, it is clear that existing project-based efforts cannot add up at scale. Our current understanding of adaptation offers very little by way of solutions for the scale of transformative shifts necessary now and into the future for Nepal and elsewhere. Based on the polluter pays principle, the developed world should indeed bear the cost of adaptation in developing countries to make up for historical emissions. But when our springs dry up, having more money may not be of much help.Even without climate change, Nepal faced challenges managing disasters and development. The climate emergency is a <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/life-in-the-time-of-tornadoes/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">threat multiplier</a> that will seriously strain our socio-economic, political and ecological futures.Ajaya Dixit is Executive Director of Kathmandu based ISET-Nepal. His monthly column Climate for Change deals with the impact of global warming in Nepal.

The climate threat multiplier

Gebru Jember Endalew has been involved in UN negotiations on climate change since 2008 as a core member of the Ethiopian negotiating team. Last year, he stepped down as Chair of the Least Developed Countries (LDCs) Group on Climate Change, of which Nepal is a member and Bhutan is the new Chair.Currently, Endalew is an adviser at the Korea-based <a href="http://gggi.org/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Global Green Growth Institute</a>. Endalew was in Kathmandu this week for consultations on resilience and adaptation for Asia-Pacific members of the LDC group. He spoke to Nepali Times on how least-developed countries like Nepal can cope with <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/climate-climax/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">climate change</a>.Read also:'<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=21122&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Climate damage</a>', Editorial<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/a-terrifying-assessment-of-himalayan-melting/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Terrifying assessment of a Himalayan Melting</a>, Kunda Dixit'<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=21132&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Turning on the heat</a>', Ajaya DixitSimilarities between Nepal and EthiopiNepal and Ethiopia have a lot in common. We are LDCs, we are land-locked, face severe impacts of global climate change despite not being major greenhouse gas emitters. And we are both mountainous countries. Mountain ecosystems are <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/guest-editorial/mountainous-change,887" target="_blank" rel="noopener">highly fragile in terms of climate change impacts</a>, as proven by the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/a-terrifying-assessment-of-himalayan-melting/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">study released this week</a> by ICIMOD Hindu Kush Himalaya Assessment and the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/decarbonise-now/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">IPCC 1.5 Degree World report</a>.We know that a 1.5 degree world is achievable, but even an increase of one degree in global average temperature has major consequences ranging from forest fires, extreme weather events to changing monsoon patterns. Yet some of the countries were still in denial at the Climate Summit in Poland. But we LDCs have been consistent in terms of our reflections about the 1.5 degree report and we believe it will be taken up at the UN Secretary General’s meeting in September in New York.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108101144/636a25cb9c7e80680e0439e0jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="800" height="1067"/><figcaption>Photo: KUNDA DIXIT</figcaption></figure>Climate justiceWhile we need to continue to push big emitters for more pledges for adaptation, we cannot completely depend on compensation to address the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/on-thin-ice-in-the-khumbu/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">impact of climate change</a> on our people. Trillions were promised in Poland but it will take years to materialise. And now that the number of big emitters have increased, and include many of our own countries, reimbursement alone will not take us anywhere in terms of investments required.If we stick to <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=9980#.XFvcbVUzaUl" target="_blank" rel="noopener">historical responsibility for carbon emissions</a>, we will not arrive at a solution. If we wait for developed countries to pledge resources, we will not be able to adapt to the urgent impacts that are already being felt. So government in countries like Nepal and Ethiopia need to look for domestic financial resources and engage the private sector in solutions to generate revenue. We need to move out of the victim narrative to proactive leadership to deal with it.In fact, Nepal can be a leader in terms of developing innovative mitigation actions, even if it may have a much <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/from-a-fossil-past-to-an-electric-future/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">smaller carbon footprint</a> compared to other countries. Better ecosystem and resource management here can reduce the risks of flooding in lower catchment areas of India and Bangladesh.And to be honest, past actions cannot be blamed when people were just trying to improve their lives. Post-industrial emissions were not deliberate. The biggest blunder of all would be for our leaders to repeat the same mistakes with the knowledge they have today about the impact of greenhouse gases.Turning the clock backCountries like the US and Brazil are <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/bypassing-trump-on-climate-action/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">regressing on prior commitments</a> when it comes to climate change action. But I’m a bit of an optimist myself. Despite a somewhat bleak scenario at the leadership level, what is happening on the ground is encouraging. We see consecutive peaks in investment on renewable energy around the world including in the US, and these newer cleaner technologies are cheaper and more easily accessible to the people.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/bypassing-trump-on-climate-action/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bypassing Trump on climate change</a>, Kunda DixitMitigation or adaptation?Mitigation, adaptation and development have to go together. There is no point in making distinction. Mitigation measures to reduce fossil fuel dependence eventually contributes to development and resilience. For example: electricity generated from hydropower improves the living standard of the people while also reducing greenhouse gases.Initially there was a misconception that mitigation was not for the developing countries. We know now that everyone has to be involved in the global mitigation process, not just to save the planet but also to save our economies.All of this requires good leadership. Unless there is a political guidance, whatever resources we have might be either least used or abused. Good governance is a key to better planning and implementation to cope with climate impact.

From playing victim to proactive leadership on climate

Nepali Congress (NC) President Gagan Thapa's candidacy in Sarlahi-4 has thrust this Madhes constituency into rare national focus. If Thapa wins and the NC emerges as the largest party, Sarlahi-4 will send Nepal's next prime minister to Parliament. But if he does not, Nepal’s grand old party will face the next years in the opposition to fight another day. There is a troubling paradox in Sarlahi-4 where the district bordering the Indian state of Bihar has been a battleground for national politicians with fierce electoral competition, all while remaining one of the region's most underserved and underdeveloped constituencies.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485.png" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485" data-rendition-name="original" width="1802" height="1276" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: MADHES PAHARA MEDIA</figcaption> </figure>  Ever since Mahant Thakur split from NC in 2008 to form the Tarai Madhes Loktantrik Party, the district has seen rotating political alliances and fragmented votes. Yet, despite 18 years of candidates promising change irrigation schemes remain incomplete, market access for farmers has not improved, unemployment is high.&nbsp; On election day, voters here marked their ballots with fingers stained by dye from the Holi festival the day before. The road leading to Barathawa Bazar was deserted for the most part, except for some youth riding in motorcycles. This is where the high-profile contest between Gagan Thapa and RSP nominee Amresh Singh is being staged. Among the other aspirants is 27-year-old UML candidate Amnish Yadav, the son of former MP Shiv Pujan Yadav. The Yadavs are a political family with considerable caste influence in the constituency. In 2022 Yadav’s daughter Madhumala Yadav received over 14,000 votes here, ranking third overall. Yadav was voted MP from the Maoist party, but defected to the UML this time. His other son is the chair of Sarlahi’s Ramnagar Rural Municipality. Sarhali-4 has 121,012 voters, and the Yadav is banking on the 27,000-strong Yadav vote bank. Sarlahi-4 voter Avishek Sah told us he wanted his vote to go to a young nominee and not someone who has been MP thrice already, like Amresh Singh. &nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10" data-rendition-name="original" width="1200" height="1600" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  To make local loyalties even more complicated, Amnish Yadav’s uncle, Harinder Yadav is an active NC member and walked side by side with Gagan Thapa during his door-to-door campaigns.&nbsp; The NC is betting on Thapa getting over 60% of the total votes. Amresh Singh’s tally could be limited to 10,000 votes — that too because of the nationwide RSP wave, and the popularity of its prime ministerial hopeful Balendra (Balen) Shah. “Amresh Singh lost his appeal when he played victim after he was denied a ticket by the NC in 2022,” Harinder Yadav says. Voters we spoke to here agreed with this assessment that Singh did not do much for the district once he got elected in the past, and being a part of the RSP seems to be his biggest asset. “The only reason I voted for Amresh Singh is because Balen is in RSP,” local voter Mahendra Gupta from Barathawa. &nbsp;“This is his last chance to return the people’s trust.”&nbsp; Gupta is aware of the institutional presence of the NC here. The party received the most votes in 2022 local elections, adding that the candidacy of someone as high-profile as Thapa is a positive sign for Sarlahi-4.&nbsp; Other voters like Ruby Gupta are rooting for both the NC and the RSP. “I will vote for Gagan and for Balen,” she says, adding that her FPTP vote will go to Thapa while her PR ballot would be for the RSP. RSP supporters are confident that their candidate will win big because even though many voters may not have openly voiced their support they still voted for the party and candidate. The Balen Wave was not limited to RSP voters, but also to UML candidate Yadav, who said in a gathering that he will be “the voters Balen” if they elect him. He touted his party’s track record in government, and largely campaigned on administrative efficiency, infrastructural expansion, and local service delivery. Amresh Singh ran on the RSP’s anti-establishment brand, promising to fight corruption, challenge traditional party politics, improve basic services such as education, health, jobs, and infrastructure, while pushing for stronger representation and development for Madhes.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="1200" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo:AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  Singh’s rivalry with his NC competitor goes beyond the ballot— he allegedly blames Thapa for being denied the NC ticket in 2022, which led him to win the election from Sarlahi-4 as an independent. &nbsp; For his part, Gagan Thapa focused on a more pragmatic development agenda that includes upgrading roads and irrigation, improving schools and hospitals, supporting farmers, and creating employment opportunities with improved governance at the centre. He also promised to build an engineering college in the constituency.&nbsp; Thapa also promoted his own anti-establishment image within the NC, repeatedly reminding voters on the campaign trail that he represents the aspirations of the youth.&nbsp; On Thursday, as voting progressed, there were violent disruptions in two centres where voting was briefly halted. But Sarlahi district police spokesperson Saroj Rai told Nepali Times that there were no major problems. Police in collaboration with the Nepal Army sent the ballot papers to the district’s counting stations, where the votes are expected to be tallied through the night and the winner announced Friday morning.

Sarlahi-4 nervously watches ballot count

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<div class="embed-block"><iframe src="https://election-geo-dashboard.pages.dev/" width="100%" height="700" frameborder="0"> </iframe></div>

Nepal election live results

As this report is uploaded, the latest results in Nepal’s election show that the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) is headed for an even bigger sweep than most had predicted.
The RSP was leading by large margins in 49 of 165 constituencies, &nbsp;with the UML, NC and NCP trailing far behind. Prominent political figures from the old parties like K P Oli, Minwndra Prasad Rijal, Ishwar Pokhrel, Bishnu Prasad Poudel, Bimalendra Nidhi all seem headed for defeat.
It does look like the RSP’s bell election symbol is ringing right across Nepal — from cities to the remotest districts in the mountains and plains. The party’s blue colour is sweeping the land.
The Nepali people seem to have sent a clear message that they were throughly dissatisfied with the chronic failure of the three main parties to work in the national interest to create jobs and deliver development. It was also an expression of lingering outrage over the the 8 September massacre outside Parliament. &nbsp;
It now looks almost certain that Balendra Shah will get to be Nepal’s next, and youngest, prime minister. Hopefully he will be leading a cabinet of competent and honest technocrats. It remains to seen how the power equation between Shah and the RSP’s leader, Rabi Lamichhane will play out.
Lamichhane is out of jail on bail for fraud cases which he has called political vendetta by the previous regime. Both he and Shah are charismatic and ambitious. Their working relationship will determine Nepal's political stability and whether it can avoid the political cronyism of the past.
This election was not just about casting votes. It was about standing up to principles and a value system, and respecting the hopes and aspirations of Nepal’s youth. It to push for transparent government and against impunity — including for the gunning down of young Nepalis in cold blood.
<div class="embed-block"><iframe src="https://election-geo-dashboard.pages.dev/" width="100%" height="600" frameborder="0"> </iframe>Live election results as winners of candidates are announced.</div>
CAN DO MAN
Shah got mixed reviews as mayor. He was impulsive and ad hoc, but most people inKathmandu and beyond liked his can-do attitude and unconventional style which stood in sharp contract to the legacy leaders. Over his three year mayorship he showed more maturity and planning capacity.&nbsp;
But he always ran headlong into opposition from the federal government over his urban planning and other initiatives to make Kathmandu more liveable. Coming from a civil and structural engineering background, he was involved in building low-cost housing after the 2015 earthquake.
But his public persona is more tied to his irreverent rap lyrics that stood up for the marginalised underprivileged in society, while exposing the high-handedness and apathy of the state. But this also exposed contradictions because he also used his own municipal guards to beat and chase away street vendors and squatters.
But there is no doubt that a combination of the sharp messaging in his rap videos amplified by the algorithms of social media ignited Nepal’s youth to rise up. It was more about optics and emotion than policy and strategy.
He studied Kathmandu district for five years, visiting experts in every field before announcing his independent candidacy for mayor in 2022. Many like me in his own constitunecy did not know who he was and where he came from.
He is a year younger than my architect son, and I saw in him a reflection of my own son’s commitment to serving the nation. I voted for him to be mayor despite his sometimes erratic behaviour, which could be attributed to his youth.
The best sign of his strategic planning, which unsettled septuagenarian and octogenarian politicians, is the he did not grab the first easy option of becoming prime minister in September when GenZ activists offered him the post.&nbsp;
Joining RSP was a masterstroke, as was his challenge to Oli in Jhapa to project national branding. He needed a party platform and Lamichhane needed a popular prime ministerial persona since he himself could not hold the post.
Shah has shown the capacity to take risks when he believes the value justifies the action for the country. Now, he will have to show more strategic thinking on a national scale, as well as understand the delicate geopolitics of Nepal.&nbsp;
He must rise above the kind of crude social media posts that earned him followers on X, but did nothing to erase his erratic and impulsive image.&nbsp;
Some assume that behind his trademark RayBan shades is a closet dictator, and his past remarks about Hitler are still up on social media. He has in the past shown impatience with criticism, unleashing supporters on social media to troll detractors.&nbsp;
Even so, the public seems willing to place their hope on an educated young man with integrity and a proven record for planning at the helm. By tomorrow it will be clear whether the hope Nepalis have held has been fulfilled, and the coming years will show if the RSP will lead Nepalis to a better future.
The voters seem to have shown the door even to the NC despite the fact that under Gagan Thapa, the party had turned a new leaf. A strong government under Prime Minister Balendra Shah heading a carefully selected cabinet and a strong opposition of the NC, UML and other parties for check and balance may be just what we need for a stable Nepal.&nbsp;
Nepalis have collectively always shown maturity in elections. This time they have given a resounding endorsement for integrity and for good governance.

Bells ring all over Nepal

After Thursday’s election, Nepalis are in a wait-and-watch mode. The Election Commission says counting ballot papers will be expedited this time, and the results for the First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) will start being declared within days. In 2022, it took three weeks for the final results to be tallied.&nbsp;
But winning an election is only half the challenge for the parties, forming a government under parliamentary politics is like a complicated mathematical equation.&nbsp;
In 2022, the Nepali Congress (NC) emerged as the biggest party, winning 89 seats. But the UML with 78 seats and the Maoists with 32 formed a minority government. In fact, Sher Bahadur Deuba did not become PM then despite leading the biggest party in Parliament.
This time, there is an unmistakeable Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) wave led by its prime ministerial candidate, Balendra Shah. Besides his own popularity, Shah represents change which most Nepalis are clamouring for after decades of corrupt and feckless coalitions that did not deliver.&nbsp;
The past months of campaigning has seen massive youth engagement on social media through memes, AI clips, and viral images. Digital content that appeals to emotion rather than policy debate between candidates shape electoral outcomes in Nepal and elsewhere. &nbsp;
Shah represents GenZ aspirations, and was their candidate for prime minister. It was only when he declined that Sushila Karki was nominated. None of the political parties in the recent past -- new, old, or revolutionary — have won enough seats to go it alone.&nbsp;
The most recent majority government was formed by the short-lived Communist Party of Nepal after the UML-Maoist merger in 2022. But that rare two-thirds majority collapsed after a power struggle between K P Oli and Pushpa Kamal Dahal. The only party to have won a majority was the NC in the 1991 and 1999 elections. But it is near impossible for it to repeat this success now, even with Gagan Thapa's rebranding of the party.&nbsp;
We have compiled these possible scenarios for election outcome in order of likelihood:
RSP gets a majority
RSP hits the magic 138 to form a government entirely on its own. Balendra Shah wins Jhapa-5, and becomes the new prime minister at 35, the youngest ever to hold the office in Nepal. But danger lurks: there could be a personality clash between Shah and Lamichhane who are both equally ambitious. History could repeat itself.&nbsp;
RSP wins but does not get a majority
RSP is likely to sweep the most votes, but what if it does not secure enough seats for a majority? It would need a coalition partner and Nepali Communist Party (NCP) under Pushpa Kamal Dahal could fit the bill, but only if it has the numbers. The RSP is not likely to team up with the UML or NC.
The NCP is relatively untainted by the 8 September events, and also has former UML defectors like Madhav Kumar Nepal and Bhim Rawal who could bag their rural vote banks. After all, there are no permanent foes in politics. If the royalist RPP and Tarai-based Janata Samajwadi have enough seats, those could be options for the RSP. &nbsp;
NC is second
The NC under the new leadership of Gagan Thapa could become the second biggest force and form a government with RSP in a power-sharing deal with Shah. This would be the most stable scenario since the RSP and NC have competent and idealistic young technocrats. Thapa himself embodies a strong combination of both old and new politics to navigate the system for more efficient government. But then Thapa and the RSP's Rabi Lamichhane do not get along.
NC and NCP form a majority
If the NC becomes the largest party but not by a big margin, it could join up with the NCP and Ujyalo. Teaming up with the UML would likely face backlash with the party and outside. If Gagan Thapa becomes prime minister he will face internal pressure from both Deuba loyalists. Same old story.
Minority coalition of NC, UML and NCP
RSP becomes the first party but does not get a majority, paving the way for the three legacy parties to cobble together a minority government. While this is possible in Nepal’s parliamentary system, such a scenario is likely to lead to more instability and dissatisfaction among young Nepalis demanding change, and even trigger street unrest. &nbsp;