<figure><img width="584" height="391" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109141116/636ba8669c7e80680e0737dcjpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption></figcaption></figure>The Managing Director of the Nepal Electricity Authority (NEA) Kulman Ghising, who is largely credited with ending Nepal’s ruinous daily power cuts that lasted more than a decade, is likely to get his four-year term extended.Ghising was due to step down on 14 September, but after widespread public outrage on social and mainstream media, the Energy Ministry has prepared an endorsement for another four-year term.Sources said Energy Minister Barsha Man Pun has proposed that Ghising be allowed to continue to Prime Minister Oli as well as brought it up with NCP co-chair Pushpa Kamal Dahal. “The prime minister is ready to extend Kulman Ghising’s term,” a source at the Energy Ministry said on Sunday. “But the has said Ghising will henceforth have to behave like he is a part of the government, and not an independent entity.”Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/kulman-ghisings-tenure-at-nea-in-doubt/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Kulman Ghising's tenure in doubt</a>, Ramesh KumarIf true, the remark appears to reflect the prime minister’s unease with Ghising’s popularity for having ended the crippling 12-18 hour power cuts for which his predecessors at the NEA are held responsible.  <figure><img width="1500" height="908" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109141116/636ba8689c7e80680e0737ddjpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure><figure><img width="1500" height="930" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109141116/636ba86b9c7e80680e0737dejpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Earlier this week Finance Minister Yubaraj Khatiwada had publicly warned Ghising: “He was not appointed by social media, he was appointed by the government, and the decision on extending his tenure is the responsibility of the government.”Ghising himself had issued a statement this week after rumours spread that his term had been extended. He said he did not deserve all the credit for ending power cuts, and it was a team effort of the government.Pushpa Kamal Dahal reportedly told Pun that it would not reflect well on the government if Ghising was replaced when he is so popular in the public eye.The Energy Ministry sources said a formal letter about Ghsiing extension was ready and would be forwarded to the Cabinet for approval. <figure><img width="1500" height="1056" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109141116/636ba86e9c7e80680e0737dfjpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure><a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/interview/interview-with-Kulman-Ghising,3409" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/interview/interview-with-Kulman-Ghising,3409&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1598882705470000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGY4avowF3s188UAACqQqpWBgIJxw">Ghising is an electrical engineer</a> who systematically reduced pilferage, and <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/corruption-in-electricity-industry-of-Nepal,3408" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/corruption-in-electricity-industry-of-Nepal,3408&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1598882705470000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHAU2CzfGU9I4EEzV9HIV8F-I7btA">cut off 24-hour dedicated feeds</a> through which his predecessors had been providing businesses low tariff electricity in return for kickbacks. At the height of the power cuts in the winter of 2016 after the earthquake, Nepalis were getting only six hours of electricity a day. Collusion between NEA officials and industrialists allowed half the 750MW electricity generated to be diverted to businesses.   After he took over, Ghising expedited hydropower projects, removed delays in the construction of transmission lines, and imported power from India to meet winter shortfall. NEA was also able to reduce pilferage from 25% to 15%, saving the utility Rs7 billion a year. Imports from India have declined steadily from 35% of total supply for the past five years to 22% this year (see charts, above).  From 2012 to 2016, when Nepalis faced the longest periods of load-shedding, the NEA cumulatively lost Rs25 billion. The greatest annual loss of nearly Rs9 billion was in fiscal year 2015-2016. After Ghising took over, NEA’s profits soared to Rs1.5 billion, and is now set to cross Rs11 billion this fiscal year.

original

400x266

400x240

400x203

301x200

Kulman Ghising to stay on

<figure><img width="1400" height="787" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110714114/636902ac9c7e80680e037c79jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>DHCF</figcaption></figure>Nepal’s planners have always faced an uphill task in ensuring energy self-sufficiency. The main issues in the past have been politics, the absence of a strategic vision, and policies that forced the country<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/how-they-kept-nepal-in-the-dark-ages/" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> to suffer chronic power cuts</a>. But the country has a new beginning with a new government that has promised political stability and economic prosperity.The other challenge is an engineering one. Nepal may have one of the highest per capita hydropower potential, but most of the total 1044MW capacity today comes from run-of-river plants which depend on the water flow to turn turbines, and not from <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/Comment/storing-water-reservoir-Nepal,1042" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reservoirs</a> that can store monsoon water for the dry season.This means the country suffers from <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/How-%20to-%20avoid-power-cuts-this-winter-solar-energy-LED,3769" target="_blank" rel="noopener">shortfalls in production during winter when peak demand is highest</a>. There are also the daily peaks in the mornings and evenings that need to be covered by Nepal’s only storage dam, the 92MW Kulekhani cascade. Currently, Nepal meets nearly all its peak demand by <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/nepal-india-thermal-power,3570" target="_blank" rel="noopener">importing coal-fired electricity from India</a>.Peak load demand is traditionally met with electricity from hydropower reservoirs or power plants burning fossil fuels. But as countries try to meet carbon emission targets, there is pressure to adopt solar and other renewable energy sources to meet gap. <img width="736" height="1500" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110714114/636902af9c7e80680e037c7ajpeg.jpg" alt="">This is precisely what the <a href="http://www.dolmaimpact.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Dolma Himalayan Climate Fund (DHCF)</a> is trying to do with its proposal to generate 150MW of solar power and store 20MW of it in battery systems to meet Nepal’s seasonal and daily peaks.Called Peak Energy Management (PEMa) System, the first phase of the project got approval from the Investment Board Nepal (IBN) last week to ‘time-shift’ daytime solar generated power to help meet evening peak demand, and also store surplus hydroelectricity generated during the night to partially meet the morning peak demand.Such generation and storage of solar power would have been prohibitively expensive till even two years ago. But the cost of storing energy in batteries dropped to less than $200/kWh from $1,200/kWh ten years ago. The price of photovoltaic cells have similarly plummeted to only $60/MWh compared to $400/MWh in 2008.The other advantage is that a project of this scale can be up and running within two years compared to the decade that it will take for Nepal’s next big reservoir projects like Budi Gandaki and Tanahu. Solar is also much more ecologically benign. There is a neat fit: Nepal’s peak demand is in winter when solar generation is highest because of cloudless skies.“We are not trying to replace hydro with solar, we just want a flexible and reliable system to meet peak demand by complementing hydropower,” explains Mike Winkel, Director of the Dolma Himalayan Climate Fund, an offshoot of the Dolma Impact Fund, the first international private equity fund for Nepal which has investments in the hydropower, technology, agriculture and health sectors.The Dolma Group was set up by Tim Gocher, a finance executive and professor specialising in energy. (<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/business/a-part-of-something-bigger/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Read interview</a>, and <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zzp3Lh9zCNU" target="_blank" rel="noopener">watch Nepali Times Studio on our YouTube Channel</a>.)“The project is not going to replace hydro by any means, but solar does give Nepal another energy option which should directly offset some of the imports from India,” Gocher told Nepali Times.The PEMa serves the same purpose as a storage dam to cover peak winter demand, but unlike reservoirs it can be completed in two years, and can be quickly upscaled to 850MW in the second phase. This makes business sense because Nepal’s electricity demand is expected to grow at 7% per year, while peak deficit will continue for another ten years until the big dams come online.“It will buy Nepal time with short-term supply of power to meet peak time deficits,” says Sandip Shah, Managing Director of DHCF, an energy specialist who was formerly with the Norwegian SN Power. <img width="839" height="355" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110714114/636902b29c7e80680e037c7bjpeg.jpg" alt="">“My entire career has been with hydropower, and I have always grappled with making Nepal self-reliant in meeting daily and seasonal peak power deficits. With prices of solar and battery coming down, the technology is finally there to make Nepal energy independent,” explains Shah.When it comes into operation, possibly by 2020, PEMa will be one of the first utility scale battery operated grid power plants in the region, and it will immediately reduce Nepal’s power import bill as well as carbon footprint which has doubled due to the current import of coal-fired energy from India.At the Investment Board Nepal, CEO Maha Prasad Adhikari is also excited about the venture. “This is an innovative way to improve Nepal’s energy mix, and can support our peak-time and dry season demand within a short timeframe.”The Dolma Impact Fund will also be building on its investments in <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/reservoirs-of-suspicion/hydropower-geopolitics%20,3991" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nepal’s hydropower</a>, that include the 28.1MW Lower Likhu project in Okhaldhunga and the 6.4MW Suri Khola Project in Dolakha into which the Fund has injected $4.5 million and may invest more in hydropower or other solar projects.Winkel used to be with the global energy giant E.ON managing 60,000MW grids, and says PEMa is trying to find the optimal technology to meet the shortfall in Nepal’s peak energy supply. He adds: “Making renewable energy competitive has driven me for many years, and PEMa makes this vision a reality by combining state-of-the-art power generation and storage technologies to deliver clean, secure and competitive electricity for Nepal.”Read also:<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/how-they-kept-nepal-in-the-dark-ages/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">How they kept Nepal in the dark ages</a>, Ramesh Kumar<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/Comment/storing-water-reservoir-Nepal,1042" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Storing water</a>, Bishal Thapa<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/nepal-india-thermal-power,3570" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Cloud with a dark lining</a>, Om Astha Rai

Kunda Dixit

674x448

610x380

500x500

1250x600

1084x550

Nepal turns to solar and batteries to meet peak demand

Prolonged power cuts were not due to undersupply but because of rampant corruption <figure><img width="1500" height="1000" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110710110/6368c9309c7e80680e02f29ajpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Kathmandu is now lit up after the end of load-shedding. Pic: Bikram Rai</figcaption></figure>Nepalis endured a crippling power shortage for a decade from 2006-2016, and were told over and over again that it was because of the gap between demand and supply. The Nepal Electricity Authority (NEA) blamed the war for delayed projects, political instability -– everything but corruption.However, in 2016 Nepalis got a pleasant surprise. As soon as the NEA had a new chief, <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/interview/interview-with-Kulman-Ghising,3409">Kul Man Ghising</a>, they started getting 24 hours of power supply. It was a miracle. Or was it?Ghising said modestly then that it was just a matter of “better management of demand and supply”. But our investigation has revealed that Nepalis did not suffer from load-shedding just because of undersupply but because of structural corruption -- <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/corruption-in-electricity-industry-of-Nepal,3408"> top NEA executives were selling electricity to industrialists,</a> leaving household consumers in the darkness for 10 years. <img width="640" height="326" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110710110/6368c9339c7e80680e02f29bjpeg.jpg" alt="">In the winter of 2014, Nepalis were enduring 14 hours of power outage every day at a time when the NEA was supplying uninterrupted electricity to selected cement factories, cotton mills and steel manufacturers.Hydro-electricity cost Rs7 per unit that year -- four times cheaper than per unit cost of diesel-powered generators (Rs29). Industrialists wanted cheap uninterrupted power and were willing to pay the NEA brass under the table to give them a dedicated feed. Businessmen saved millions they would have otherwise spent on buying expensive diesel. NEA officials filled their pockets. And everyone got their share.Documents which Himal Khabarpatrika has acquired show that NEA Managing Director at the time, Mukesh Raj Kafle, alone sold 50 MW of electricity to Reliance Spinning Mill, Triveni Spinning Mill, Hulas Steel, Shivam Cement, Sarbottam Cement and six jute mills in Biratnagar, leading to load-shedding even during the monsoon.The modus operandi was simple: industrialists requested dedicated feeders, the NEA's regional managers recommended uninterrupted power supply, and the MD ordered the dispatchers to ensure 24 hours electricity to selected customers. <figure><img width="640" height="684" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110710110/6368c9369c7e80680e02f29cjpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure><img width="640" height="925" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110710110/6368c93a9c7e80680e02f29djpeg.jpg" alt="">Kafle learnt the trick from his predecessors when the nexus evolved in 2006 while Arjun Karki was NEA chief and Sher Singh Bhat headed the Load Dispatch Centre.Karki and Singh forced Nepalis to bear up to 17 hours of power outage daily in winter, while supplying 24-hour power to influential business groups. In January 2013, the NEA Board of Directors ordered that dedicated feeders be disconnected. But that decision was reversed when Rameswor Yadav became the NEA's new MD.That year, a probe panel led by Shyam Sundar Shrestha, Deputy Director General of Electricity Development Department, concluded that the NEA was 'arbitrarily' supplying uninterrupted electricity to industrial plants operated by powerful businesses. The panel recommended further investigation and action against the guilty.After Kafle became MD, he brushed that report under the carpet, blaming undersupply. Only after Ghising replaced Kafle did the NEA cut the dedicated feeders to industrial plants, and made sure electricity was distributed evenly. Ghising also imported more electricity from India to fill the gap caused by the increase in suppressed demand. But NEA spokesperson Prabal Adhikari says cutting off dedicated feeders to industries and importing more electricity from India were not the only factors leading to an end to power cuts.  "We have also cut leakage. People don’t use inverters to store power in batteries, and this also reduced demand,” he explains.Apart from industrialists and NEA officials, the other sector that benefited from power cuts were solar and diesel generator traders. In 2015, Nepal imported diesel generators worth Rs3.26 billion and solar panels worth Rs2.1 billion. This fiscal year, the country imported only Rs 2.1 billion worth of diesel generator and Rs290 million in solar panels.  Who got 24-hour electricity? FACTORIES-Reliance Spinning Mill-Shivam Cement-Hulas Steel-Sarbottam Cement-Triveni Spinning Mill-Arihant Multifibers-Raghupati Jute Mill-Baba Jute Mill-Swastik Jute Mill-Nepal Jute Mill-GB Textile-New Narayan Rubber-Sakuara Pipe-Sita Food Industry-Satyawoti Concrete Industry-Siddartha Mineral Pvt Ltd-Hetauda Cement-Sino Hydro Corportation-Multi-Purpose Plastic Industry-Pashupati Sim Pack-Kamala Rolling Mill-Asian Thai Foods-Mainawati Steel Industry-Arihanta Poly Pack-Maruti Cement-Dhanlaxmi Synthetic-Negale cement-Jagadamba Steel-Hulas WireGOVERNMENT-Shital Niwas-Nirmal Niwas-Ex-princess Prekshya Rajya Laxmi ShahBANKS-Rashtriya Banijya Bank-Agriculture Development BankHOSPITALS-Norvic Nursing College-Devdahal Medical College-Manipal College of medical sciences-Himalayan eye hospital-Neuro Hospital-BP Memorial Hospital-Green City Hospital-Ishan Child Nursing Home-Medicare Hospital-Kantipur Dental College-Sahara Hospital -Annapurna Neuro Hospital-Norvic Hospital-Shanti Hospital-Jaya Buddha Hospital-Pushpanjali Hospital-Om Hospital-Manakamana Nursing Home-Saptagandaki Medical College-Maula Kalika hospital-Asha Hospital (Centre for Investigative Journalism)

How they kept Nepal in the dark ages

Nepali Congress (NC) President Gagan Thapa's candidacy in Sarlahi-4 has thrust this Madhes constituency into rare national focus. If Thapa wins and the NC emerges as the largest party, Sarlahi-4 will send Nepal's next prime minister to Parliament. But if he does not, Nepal’s grand old party will face the next years in the opposition to fight another day. There is a troubling paradox in Sarlahi-4 where the district bordering the Indian state of Bihar has been a battleground for national politicians with fierce electoral competition, all while remaining one of the region's most underserved and underdeveloped constituencies.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485.png" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485" data-rendition-name="original" width="1802" height="1276" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: MADHES PAHARA MEDIA</figcaption> </figure>  Ever since Mahant Thakur split from NC in 2008 to form the Tarai Madhes Loktantrik Party, the district has seen rotating political alliances and fragmented votes. Yet, despite 18 years of candidates promising change irrigation schemes remain incomplete, market access for farmers has not improved, unemployment is high.&nbsp; On election day, voters here marked their ballots with fingers stained by dye from the Holi festival the day before. The road leading to Barathawa Bazar was deserted for the most part, except for some youth riding in motorcycles. This is where the high-profile contest between Gagan Thapa and RSP nominee Amresh Singh is being staged. Among the other aspirants is 27-year-old UML candidate Amnish Yadav, the son of former MP Shiv Pujan Yadav. The Yadavs are a political family with considerable caste influence in the constituency. In 2022 Yadav’s daughter Madhumala Yadav received over 14,000 votes here, ranking third overall. Yadav was voted MP from the Maoist party, but defected to the UML this time. His other son is the chair of Sarlahi’s Ramnagar Rural Municipality. Sarhali-4 has 121,012 voters, and the Yadav is banking on the 27,000-strong Yadav vote bank. Sarlahi-4 voter Avishek Sah told us he wanted his vote to go to a young nominee and not someone who has been MP thrice already, like Amresh Singh. &nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10" data-rendition-name="original" width="1200" height="1600" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  To make local loyalties even more complicated, Amnish Yadav’s uncle, Harinder Yadav is an active NC member and walked side by side with Gagan Thapa during his door-to-door campaigns.&nbsp; The NC is betting on Thapa getting over 60% of the total votes. Amresh Singh’s tally could be limited to 10,000 votes — that too because of the nationwide RSP wave, and the popularity of its prime ministerial hopeful Balendra (Balen) Shah. “Amresh Singh lost his appeal when he played victim after he was denied a ticket by the NC in 2022,” Harinder Yadav says. Voters we spoke to here agreed with this assessment that Singh did not do much for the district once he got elected in the past, and being a part of the RSP seems to be his biggest asset. “The only reason I voted for Amresh Singh is because Balen is in RSP,” local voter Mahendra Gupta from Barathawa. &nbsp;“This is his last chance to return the people’s trust.”&nbsp; Gupta is aware of the institutional presence of the NC here. The party received the most votes in 2022 local elections, adding that the candidacy of someone as high-profile as Thapa is a positive sign for Sarlahi-4.&nbsp; Other voters like Ruby Gupta are rooting for both the NC and the RSP. “I will vote for Gagan and for Balen,” she says, adding that her FPTP vote will go to Thapa while her PR ballot would be for the RSP. RSP supporters are confident that their candidate will win big because even though many voters may not have openly voiced their support they still voted for the party and candidate. The Balen Wave was not limited to RSP voters, but also to UML candidate Yadav, who said in a gathering that he will be “the voters Balen” if they elect him. He touted his party’s track record in government, and largely campaigned on administrative efficiency, infrastructural expansion, and local service delivery. Amresh Singh ran on the RSP’s anti-establishment brand, promising to fight corruption, challenge traditional party politics, improve basic services such as education, health, jobs, and infrastructure, while pushing for stronger representation and development for Madhes.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="1200" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo:AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  Singh’s rivalry with his NC competitor goes beyond the ballot— he allegedly blames Thapa for being denied the NC ticket in 2022, which led him to win the election from Sarlahi-4 as an independent. &nbsp; For his part, Gagan Thapa focused on a more pragmatic development agenda that includes upgrading roads and irrigation, improving schools and hospitals, supporting farmers, and creating employment opportunities with improved governance at the centre. He also promised to build an engineering college in the constituency.&nbsp; Thapa also promoted his own anti-establishment image within the NC, repeatedly reminding voters on the campaign trail that he represents the aspirations of the youth.&nbsp; On Thursday, as voting progressed, there were violent disruptions in two centres where voting was briefly halted. But Sarlahi district police spokesperson Saroj Rai told Nepali Times that there were no major problems. Police in collaboration with the Nepal Army sent the ballot papers to the district’s counting stations, where the votes are expected to be tallied through the night and the winner announced Friday morning.

Sarlahi-4 nervously watches ballot count

&nbsp;
<div class="embed-block"><iframe src="https://election-geo-dashboard.pages.dev/" width="100%" height="700" frameborder="0"> </iframe></div>

Nepal election live results

As this report is uploaded, the latest results in Nepal’s election show that the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) is headed for an even bigger sweep than most had predicted.
The RSP was leading by large margins in 49 of 165 constituencies, &nbsp;with the UML, NC and NCP trailing far behind. Prominent political figures from the old parties like K P Oli, Minwndra Prasad Rijal, Ishwar Pokhrel, Bishnu Prasad Poudel, Bimalendra Nidhi all seem headed for defeat.
It does look like the RSP’s bell election symbol is ringing right across Nepal — from cities to the remotest districts in the mountains and plains. The party’s blue colour is sweeping the land.
The Nepali people seem to have sent a clear message that they were throughly dissatisfied with the chronic failure of the three main parties to work in the national interest to create jobs and deliver development. It was also an expression of lingering outrage over the the 8 September massacre outside Parliament. &nbsp;
It now looks almost certain that Balendra Shah will get to be Nepal’s next, and youngest, prime minister. Hopefully he will be leading a cabinet of competent and honest technocrats. It remains to seen how the power equation between Shah and the RSP’s leader, Rabi Lamichhane will play out.
Lamichhane is out of jail on bail for fraud cases which he has called political vendetta by the previous regime. Both he and Shah are charismatic and ambitious. Their working relationship will determine Nepal's political stability and whether it can avoid the political cronyism of the past.
This election was not just about casting votes. It was about standing up to principles and a value system, and respecting the hopes and aspirations of Nepal’s youth. It to push for transparent government and against impunity — including for the gunning down of young Nepalis in cold blood.
<div class="embed-block"><iframe src="https://election-geo-dashboard.pages.dev/" width="100%" height="600" frameborder="0"> </iframe>Live election results as winners of candidates are announced.</div>
CAN DO MAN
Shah got mixed reviews as mayor. He was impulsive and ad hoc, but most people inKathmandu and beyond liked his can-do attitude and unconventional style which stood in sharp contract to the legacy leaders. Over his three year mayorship he showed more maturity and planning capacity.&nbsp;
But he always ran headlong into opposition from the federal government over his urban planning and other initiatives to make Kathmandu more liveable. Coming from a civil and structural engineering background, he was involved in building low-cost housing after the 2015 earthquake.
But his public persona is more tied to his irreverent rap lyrics that stood up for the marginalised underprivileged in society, while exposing the high-handedness and apathy of the state. But this also exposed contradictions because he also used his own municipal guards to beat and chase away street vendors and squatters.
But there is no doubt that a combination of the sharp messaging in his rap videos amplified by the algorithms of social media ignited Nepal’s youth to rise up. It was more about optics and emotion than policy and strategy.
He studied Kathmandu district for five years, visiting experts in every field before announcing his independent candidacy for mayor in 2022. Many like me in his own constitunecy did not know who he was and where he came from.
He is a year younger than my architect son, and I saw in him a reflection of my own son’s commitment to serving the nation. I voted for him to be mayor despite his sometimes erratic behaviour, which could be attributed to his youth.
The best sign of his strategic planning, which unsettled septuagenarian and octogenarian politicians, is the he did not grab the first easy option of becoming prime minister in September when GenZ activists offered him the post.&nbsp;
Joining RSP was a masterstroke, as was his challenge to Oli in Jhapa to project national branding. He needed a party platform and Lamichhane needed a popular prime ministerial persona since he himself could not hold the post.
Shah has shown the capacity to take risks when he believes the value justifies the action for the country. Now, he will have to show more strategic thinking on a national scale, as well as understand the delicate geopolitics of Nepal.&nbsp;
He must rise above the kind of crude social media posts that earned him followers on X, but did nothing to erase his erratic and impulsive image.&nbsp;
Some assume that behind his trademark RayBan shades is a closet dictator, and his past remarks about Hitler are still up on social media. He has in the past shown impatience with criticism, unleashing supporters on social media to troll detractors.&nbsp;
Even so, the public seems willing to place their hope on an educated young man with integrity and a proven record for planning at the helm. By tomorrow it will be clear whether the hope Nepalis have held has been fulfilled, and the coming years will show if the RSP will lead Nepalis to a better future.
The voters seem to have shown the door even to the NC despite the fact that under Gagan Thapa, the party had turned a new leaf. A strong government under Prime Minister Balendra Shah heading a carefully selected cabinet and a strong opposition of the NC, UML and other parties for check and balance may be just what we need for a stable Nepal.&nbsp;
Nepalis have collectively always shown maturity in elections. This time they have given a resounding endorsement for integrity and for good governance.

Bells ring all over Nepal

After Thursday’s election, Nepalis are in a wait-and-watch mode. The Election Commission says counting ballot papers will be expedited this time, and the results for the First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) will start being declared within days. In 2022, it took three weeks for the final results to be tallied.&nbsp;
But winning an election is only half the challenge for the parties, forming a government under parliamentary politics is like a complicated mathematical equation.&nbsp;
In 2022, the Nepali Congress (NC) emerged as the biggest party, winning 89 seats. But the UML with 78 seats and the Maoists with 32 formed a minority government. In fact, Sher Bahadur Deuba did not become PM then despite leading the biggest party in Parliament.
This time, there is an unmistakeable Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) wave led by its prime ministerial candidate, Balendra Shah. Besides his own popularity, Shah represents change which most Nepalis are clamouring for after decades of corrupt and feckless coalitions that did not deliver.&nbsp;
The past months of campaigning has seen massive youth engagement on social media through memes, AI clips, and viral images. Digital content that appeals to emotion rather than policy debate between candidates shape electoral outcomes in Nepal and elsewhere. &nbsp;
Shah represents GenZ aspirations, and was their candidate for prime minister. It was only when he declined that Sushila Karki was nominated. None of the political parties in the recent past -- new, old, or revolutionary — have won enough seats to go it alone.&nbsp;
The most recent majority government was formed by the short-lived Communist Party of Nepal after the UML-Maoist merger in 2022. But that rare two-thirds majority collapsed after a power struggle between K P Oli and Pushpa Kamal Dahal. The only party to have won a majority was the NC in the 1991 and 1999 elections. But it is near impossible for it to repeat this success now, even with Gagan Thapa's rebranding of the party.&nbsp;
We have compiled these possible scenarios for election outcome in order of likelihood:
RSP gets a majority
RSP hits the magic 138 to form a government entirely on its own. Balendra Shah wins Jhapa-5, and becomes the new prime minister at 35, the youngest ever to hold the office in Nepal. But danger lurks: there could be a personality clash between Shah and Lamichhane who are both equally ambitious. History could repeat itself.&nbsp;
RSP wins but does not get a majority
RSP is likely to sweep the most votes, but what if it does not secure enough seats for a majority? It would need a coalition partner and Nepali Communist Party (NCP) under Pushpa Kamal Dahal could fit the bill, but only if it has the numbers. The RSP is not likely to team up with the UML or NC.
The NCP is relatively untainted by the 8 September events, and also has former UML defectors like Madhav Kumar Nepal and Bhim Rawal who could bag their rural vote banks. After all, there are no permanent foes in politics. If the royalist RPP and Tarai-based Janata Samajwadi have enough seats, those could be options for the RSP. &nbsp;
NC is second
The NC under the new leadership of Gagan Thapa could become the second biggest force and form a government with RSP in a power-sharing deal with Shah. This would be the most stable scenario since the RSP and NC have competent and idealistic young technocrats. Thapa himself embodies a strong combination of both old and new politics to navigate the system for more efficient government. But then Thapa and the RSP's Rabi Lamichhane do not get along.
NC and NCP form a majority
If the NC becomes the largest party but not by a big margin, it could join up with the NCP and Ujyalo. Teaming up with the UML would likely face backlash with the party and outside. If Gagan Thapa becomes prime minister he will face internal pressure from both Deuba loyalists. Same old story.
Minority coalition of NC, UML and NCP
RSP becomes the first party but does not get a majority, paving the way for the three legacy parties to cobble together a minority government. While this is possible in Nepal’s parliamentary system, such a scenario is likely to lead to more instability and dissatisfaction among young Nepalis demanding change, and even trigger street unrest. &nbsp;