<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111413114/63722f979c7e80680e0c2523jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="4096" height="2731"/><figcaption>Photo: AMIT MACHAMASI/NEPALI TIMES ARCHIVE</figcaption></figure>A new surge in Covid cases in Nepal has served as a reminder that <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/not-over-till-its-over/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">the pandemic is not over yet</a>, and on the need to keep masks one, avoid crowds, and get booster shots.Hospitals have not reported an increase in admissions, and no fatalities from Covid have been reported since March. But <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/omicron-is-coming-to-nepal-be-prepared/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">highly transmissible</a> new sub-strains like BA.4 and BA.5 have also been detected in Nepal, as they have elsewhere in the world.“For the most part, people who have been fully vaccinated are unlikely to get very sick from the new strains, there has been no real increase in hospitalisation,” confirms Sher Bahadur Pun, virologist at Teku Hospital in Kathmandu.The fact that the new sub-strains are all Omicron variants means that, unlike the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/delta-variants-wake-up-call-for-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">deadly Delta variant</a>, they mostly infect the upper respiratory tract and not the lungs. Delta was responsible for millions of deaths in India in 2021, and killed at least 8,000 people in Nepal as hospitals ran out of oxygen and vaccines were delayed.But with 82% of the eligible population now<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/deubas-mixed-report-card/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"> fully vaccinated</a>, Nepalis are now more protected from severe illness. But the virus is still mutating, and scientists are engaged in a cat-and-mouse to stay one step ahead of new strains.“Covid-19 has proven itself to be even more cunning than we thought. It is clearly still prevalent, and can be life-threatening for some,” warns Buddha Basnyat, physician at the Patan Academy of Health Sciences. “This is not the end of the Covid story.”That is not to say that the present surge is a <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/from-pandemic-to-epidemic-to-endemic/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">new wave</a>. While each new sub-lineage of Omicron is more contagious, they are also milder. That is good news, but asymptomatic infected people are also spreading the virus wider.While active cases are on the rise in Nepal, hospitalisations are not, and infected individuals could be putting the elderly and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-needs-to-prepare-for-new-covid-wave/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">those with co-morbidities</a> at risk at home, or at work.Studies overseas have shown that up to half of those infected with the new sub-strains are asymptomatic. As people travel more this summer and shed masks, the BA.5 and other variants are<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-has-all-the-conditions-for-an-omicron-surge/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"> infecting and re-infecting</a> even those who are vaccinated.“We must continue to vaccinate and take a booster, especially those who haven’t even had their first shot. It might also be the time to start thinking about a fourth dose for vulnerable populations,” says Buddha Basnyat.Because ‘immune escape’ is putting more people who have had Covid-19 still at risk of reinfection, scientists are trying to improve the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/vaccines-variants-and-a-third-wave/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">efficacy of vaccines</a> as they try to keep up with mutations of the coronavirus.“Eventually, Covid-19 will be like seasonal flu, and perhaps we will have vaccines for different strains,” says Sher Bahadur Pun at Teku.BA.4 and BA.5 were first seen in South Africa, and are currently the dominant strains in Nepal. This is surprising because it is BA.2.75 that was spreading in India last month, and the surge is now peaking there. Whatever happens in India <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/vaccines-or-no-vaccines-mask-and-distance/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">comes to Nepal with a two-week lag</a>,  experts say, and predict the same scenario could play out again here with the present surge.“Newer strains, and mutations are nothing abnormal but we have to continue to mask up and vaccinate. As for the new surge, it is peaking at the moment and it will have subsided by end-July,” predicts Sameer Dixit at the Centre for Molecular Dynamics.The Centre is leading Covid-19 gene sequencing in Nepal, and it worked with the Nepal Health Research Council, Birat Nepal Medical Trust, Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine and Oxford to study 1,800 Covid-19 samples collected from all over Nepal in the past year. The findings will be released soon, and could reinforce the importance of genetic sequencing in Nepal so scientists can predict the behaviour of the next variant.Nepal is also a part of the largest Covid-19 recovery study, currently being undertaken in the UK which has come up with significant findings, including the use of some steroids in the treatment of coronavirus diseases.But the fact that the new strains are milder does not discount the inherent correlation between health and the economy. Even the best health care systems can collapse as seen in Sri Lanka. Moreover, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/state-sponsored-economic-crisis-2/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">we now have record inflation</a> brought on by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which has made healthcare even more unaffordable for most Nepalis.“Nepal with its limited resources and government indifference needs to be even more prepared for a health crisis, which often spells disaster for those unable to afford treatment,” cautions epidemiologist Lhamo Yangchen Sherpa.She adds: “The new surge may look mild, but it is always better to be over-prepared than under-prepared.”

Sonia Awale

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1. Mask Up. 2. Avoid Crowds. 3. Get Boosters

<figure><img width="1594" height="986" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111015114/636d05889c7e80680e0a5f11jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Photo: AMIT MACHAMASI</figcaption></figure>Much has been said about ‘vaccine apartheid’ and how instead of levelling out rich and poor, it has widened inequities. Nepal today is living proof of this. 
As the government lurches rudderless from one failure to another — nowhere does SARS-CoV-2 have such fertile ground to spread as in Nepal.
The government declared a <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/kathmandu-covid-19-lockdown-relaxed/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/kathmandu-covid-19-lockdown-relaxed/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1625191485755000&amp;usg=AFQjCNH7xitObX_aJhpMCkps_jMvT6YgLA">‘smart lockdown’</a> after infection rates dropped, but with only 2.6% of the population vaccinated, the virus is getting ready to pounce back. In 2020, the first wave actually started only after the lockdown was eased and lifted. It can happen again.
The Delta variant is three times more virulent than the original virus, it rides unvaccinated hosts in crowded places, who do not wear masks, and do not have access to adequate healthcare. It has mutated into an even more dangerous Delta+ strain.
Prime Minister K P Oli and four health ministers who have served under him in the past year have cried wolf with sweeping promises of “full vaccination in a few months”. 
We have also heard <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/vaccines-are-the-only-solution/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/vaccines-are-the-only-solution/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1625191485755000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEA8CBMu7v8LiyErgNnzw9NMkzWwg">promises from the US President</a>, G-7 and Team Europe of a billion of doses, but there is no sign of surplus vaccines being shipped out. The Danes, Norwegians and Czechs want to send Nepal unused Oxford AstraZeneca doses, but Brussels is <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/hope-hyperbole-and-hypocrisy-of-covax/">forcing them to go through COVAX.</a>
A laudable initiative, COVAX has been undermined by its own funders. Its Japan-hosted pledging summit in early June was proof of how quickly a global mechanism with an equity plan can fall apart when <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-needs-urgent-american-vaccine-support/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-needs-urgent-american-vaccine-support/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1625191485755000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGelKWa2vhYATH_AZOtcqkw-g8WVA">national narrow-mindedness</a> prevails over enlightened self-interest. No country is safe from future mutants until everyone is vaccinated. 
We will not even bring up moral and ethical considerations here. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/anger-grows-in-nepal-over-covid-vaccine-delays/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/anger-grows-in-nepal-over-covid-vaccine-delays/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1625191485755000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFfqMeD8wLHk4i9fwxnhcCtYX5Utw">Commentators have drawn attention</a> to veterans from the Indian and British militaries who have died of Covid-19 complications in Nepal’s second wave because India did not send vaccines that had been paid for, and Britain sent us loads of PPEs. 
Please <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/aid-pours-into-nepal-but-where-be-vaccines/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/aid-pours-into-nepal-but-where-be-vaccines/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1625191485755000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEEAA9_pE28k01bucV-_40hsl7myQ">spare us more selfies</a> by diplomats at Kathmandu airport posing with yet another ‘relief’ flight full of latex gloves. We know they know that what Nepal urgently needs right now is vaccines that they themselves promised, or are willing to buy. 
Even if, by some miracle, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/anger-grows-in-nepal-over-covid-vaccine-delays/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/anger-grows-in-nepal-over-covid-vaccine-delays/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1625191485755000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFfqMeD8wLHk4i9fwxnhcCtYX5Utw">1.4 million elderly Nepalis</a> get their second doses of Covishield, it looks impossible that we can procure the 40 million doses needed to inoculate 70% of our eligible population even by the end of 2022 at the earliest.
Our government has failed us, the international community has let us down. We better start looking after ourselves in a vaccine-less future.
As if the Covid-19 crisis was happening on a distant planet, the Supreme Court is consumed by hearings on the future of the government. It will decide by next week the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/court-debates-nepal-pm-olis-future/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/court-debates-nepal-pm-olis-future/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1625191485755000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGethsg3p9twp9kU49cPc4TjdjMmA">fate of Parliament </a>and there isn’t much of a choice: either the current prime minister will get to swear himself in once more, or we will get one who has been prime minister four times in the past 20 years already. 
We cannot expect effective vaccine diplomacy, or needed policy interventions to contain the virus from this inept lot. The daily death toll when the lockdown was announced on 29 April was ten, this week we averaged 35 fatalities a day. Total active cases are higher as restrictions lifted, than they were two months ago. 
And all this is happening even while public health experts warn of a third wave, as the virus mutates in an unvaccinated world. We also know that the official infection and death rates in India and Nepal are underestimated. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-covid-19-impact-worse-than-official-figures/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-covid-19-impact-worse-than-official-figures/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1625191485755000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGRjVWVJtLoZDB85E9MRNVTuOQugA">Excess mortality in the population</a> caused by Covid-19 is said to be much higher than official figures.
Projections by the <a href="https://covid19.healthdata.org/nepal?view=cumulative-deaths&amp;tab=trend" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://covid19.healthdata.org/nepal?view%3Dcumulative-deaths%26tab%3Dtrend&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1625191485755000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFOSUIRAHJP3kcd8ORL-tNXOKKeFg">University of Washington School of Medicine in Seattle</a> show that on 29 June, when the official fatality tally nationwide was 20, the real death toll from Covid-19 in Nepal was probably closer to 95. 
This week, the official count for the number of people who have died in the pandemic crossed 9,000 — overtaking the total death toll in the 2015 earthquake. But the models suggest that the actual fatalities could be more than 31,000.
At present only 72% of Nepalis wear masks, if that can be raised to 95% as the country opens up, the models show, nearly 1,500 additional deaths due to Covid-19 could be prevented by 1 September.
We have to plan as if there will be no vaccines, and behave <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/learning-to-live-with-covid/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/learning-to-live-with-covid/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1625191485755000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHqUkg3c9x8Swh1bHMT1S9RssPOBQ">as if we are still in isolation</a>. The mantra is: mask up and avoid crowds.

No vax? Ask for Mask.

The monsoon has got bad press because Nepal’s tourism operators actively told visitors to avoid <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/managing-the-monsoon?%2F">the rainy season</a>. It is time to change that. The reason can be found right here in the vast alpine meadows of Central Nepal where this time of year you can walk on velvet grass of pastures abloom with delicate pink, red and yellow flowers as the mist rolls up the valley. There is no sound except the hum of bumble bees. &nbsp;&nbsp; There are dozens of places across high Nepal called Chaurikharka, which means yak pasture. But this particular Chaurikharka in Rukum East located at an altitude of 4,000m stands out for its serene beauty, rustic charm and bucolic setting. There is just the occasional chime of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/when-yaks-go-so-does-culture">yak bells</a> in the distance, and the sharp whistle of herders corralling sheep. &nbsp;&nbsp; The grass shoots are so fragile that one hesitates to step on them, the rounded ridges appear and quickly vanish in waves of mist. With the<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/before-the-next-monsoon"> arrival of monsoon</a>, these meadows are a soothing shade of green dotted with millions of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/review/the-anatomy-of-a-flower?%2F=">multi-coloured flowers</a>. Until very recently, it took a week or so to hike up to places like Chaurikharka, but with the expansion of the road network even to these far-flung mountains in the lap of Dhaulagiri, they are much more accessible. It is just a three-hour uphill from the Mid-Hill Highway on the border between Baglung and Rukum East.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250802130828_a0b06b494d751b2144ffbbf10894ea64b29e8aed844bc8c66171783abfaf4e16.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20250802130828_a0b06b494d751b2144ffbbf10894ea64b29e8aed844bc8c66171783abfaf4e16" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1365" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon"> </figure>  Purists would say that such easy access devalues the sanctity of these remote high meadows, but it also means more people will be moved to treasure the experience, appreciate <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/natures-fragile-gift-to-nepal">the value of nature </a>so they can take steps to protect it.&nbsp; To be sure, the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/deadly-monsoon-in-nepal-turns-deadlier">monsoon season can be challenging for road travel</a>. The roads are rough even at the best of times, and in the monsoon they become muddy and treacherous, often blocked by<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/monsoon-deluge-in-nepal"> landslides</a>. But that could be precisely the kind of adventure that the more intrepid visitors crave. Improved road connectivity has already made Chaurikharka and places like Badimallika &nbsp;and other sacred lakes in the mountains of western Nepal popular with domestic tourists. What is driving this traffic is the urge to go to exotic new places and share videos and selfies on social media. Several of Nepal’s travel vloggers have visited Chaurikharka and popularised the place, enticing followers on TikTok or YouTube to retrace their footsteps. But even as they become more popular, these fragile and once-remote places should be protected from over-tourism.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110736_f97110b7cdc3e7f80d5877690948fc9f4c95a09c583deb23b07355491e6c5446.jpg" data-media-id="editor_8" data-image-id="20250731110736_f97110b7cdc3e7f80d5877690948fc9f4c95a09c583deb23b07355491e6c5446" data-rendition-name="original" width="1083" height="699" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon NT"> </figure>  <h2>INCREASING FOOTFALL</h2> Chaurikharka is located in Bhume Rural Municipality of East Rukum, near the scenic valley of Dhorpatan in Baglung district. Even in the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/monsoon-culture">middle of the monsoon</a>, there is a steady stream of Nepali hikers trooping to these high pastures – especially during festival days like Saune Sankranti which this year was on 17 July and actually marks the auspicious beginning of the monsoon here. “This year the rains have not been as heavy and there have been some clear mornings when we could see everything from Dhaulagiri to Machapuchre,” says Khageswar Bhandari, who trekked up here from the road. “The flowers, the greenery and the snowy mountain views make this an incredibly unique place.”&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250802130824_1b9e26f2e9853fdfe69154bb42a7c9ea6da4bf4940efc1da99b304dcfbd7d3d9.jpg" data-media-id="editor_10" data-image-id="20250802130824_1b9e26f2e9853fdfe69154bb42a7c9ea6da4bf4940efc1da99b304dcfbd7d3d9" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1152" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon"> </figure>  Chaurikharka is worthwhile to get to in any season, but it has a different charm during the monsoon. Word has spread and because it is now easy to get to from Baglung or even Pokhara, people have been flocking here.&nbsp; “Holidays and Saturdays see the largest crowds, with up to 500 visitors every day,” says ward chair Mankaji Pun of Bhume.&nbsp; There was a time not too long ago when local herders brought sheep, goats, cows, buffaloes, horses, and mules to graze here during the monsoon. Although there are still livestock around, animals have been replaced by visitors taking selfies. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-monsoon-and-nature-s-arithmetic">The monsoon, and nature’s arithmetic</a>, Tom Robertson Ward Chair Pun says infrastructure development is his main priority. A foot trail to Chaurikharka was built last year by the Tourism Division Office in Kohalpur, but access via the Raniwas-Koipa road section still remains challenging.&nbsp; “If we get more budget, we can improve the road and facilities to make Chaurikharka the main tourist attraction of this region,” says Bhume Municipality Chair Hom Prakash Shrestha. “After that, we hope to promote Chaurikharka as a top tourist spot.”&nbsp; Economic activity is also picking up with the arrival of visitors, but there seems to be a need to manage the makeshift sheds made of corrugated sheets that spoil the beauty of the place. Tea shops and lodges are also available but facilities are basic. Kuldeep Neupane took a three-day trip from Ghorahi in Dang to visit Chaurikharka recently, and says: “This is an ideal trip to make a quick getaway and let nature recharge your mind and body. And it is much more fun with a tent, to watch the sunrise over the Himalaya or the mist blowing in.”

Visit Nepal in the monsoon

Two weeks ago, Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli announced jubilantly on social media that Nepal had achieved a historic annual growth of 81.8% in exports. He was right. Nepal’s trade did take a great leap forward compared to last year. But the dramatic rise was mainly due to processed soya bean oil.&nbsp; However, Nepal does not produce the edible oil it exports. In fact, the soya and palm oil that make up 44% of total exports are imported from Southeast Asia and South America, and simply re-exported, mostly to India.&nbsp; Under the SAFTA (South Asian Free Trade Area) Agreement, Nepal can export products to India duty-free if it has at least 30% value-added. Nepal’s traders have taken advantage of SAFTA even though the edible oils they export do not reach that value addition threshold. “The 30% value addition requirement is often only on paper,” says former commerce secretary Purushottam Ojha. “It is clear that simply packaging edible oils in Nepal does not fulfil the terms of the trade agreement.” Prime Minister Oli is aware of this, and even called Nepal’s export figures “fake” at an earlier event. The government is relying on other iffy figures to suggest that Nepal’s economy is strong and getting stronger. For example, the value of imports rose by 13.25% in 2024-25 compared to the previous fiscal year.&nbsp; Some of it was due to a jump in electric vehicle imports worth Rs 31.76 billion, but mostly it was because more wholesale soya oil was imported to be re-packaged and sold in India. The very fact that the government boasts about increased imports is an indication of how much it relies on taxing them for revenue. Touting such trade figures cannot be the basis to claim an economic rebound.&nbsp; “A jump in the value of imports can be interpreted as an increase in purchasing power, but it is not evidence of a stronger economy,” says economist Keshav Acharya. “Even though imports have increased, Nepal's domestic production and productive capacity have not improved.” Nepal Rastra Bank's semi-annual economic activity study report shows that industrial production was down in the first six months of the last fiscal year. This despite an increase in the number of new industries registered and investment commitments. Out of the Rs70.2 billion proposed foreign investment, Nepal received only Rs17.9 billion last year.&nbsp; Meanwhile, the rate of capital formation was limited to 24% last year, which is lower than the year before, suggesting that new investment, job creation and economic expansion all declined. If domestic production does not improve in relation to this year’s inflated trade figures, the outflow will put pressure on foreign exchange reserves like it did three years ago. At that time, Nepal borrowed from the IMF under its Extended Credit Facility Program to kickstart the economy.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025080710084_2cdaaa5795828c4a7de93a0604ba884ef0a8b8f24cccd939f6c24e279ab6058f.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="2025080710084_2cdaaa5795828c4a7de93a0604ba884ef0a8b8f24cccd939f6c24e279ab6058f" data-rendition-name="original" width="1633" height="723" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal's bubble economy NT"> <figcaption>Source: NEPAL RASTRA BANK</figcaption> </figure>  The macroeconomy is on firm footing with foreign exchange reserves at a comfortable Rs2,520 billion in May, up 23% from last year. This was largely due to remittances, and partly due to a falling NPR exchange rate. Real estate transactions and the stock market index have also been climbing as a result of government policies to revive the sector.&nbsp; However, former executive director of Nepal Rastra Bank Nar Bahadur Thapa cautions: “This is not organic growth, it is the result of deliberate policy decisions to relax rules on real estate and stock markets transactions.” In reality, the sharp rise in land prices have increased the cost of production, and excessive monetisation of the real estate has become the main source of Nepal’s economic woes. The central bank has announced a slew of new policies, shifting the terms of loan repayment for industrialists and entrepreneurs, reducing interest rates, and injecting more working capital — all designed to inject adrenaline into the real estate and stock market sectors.&nbsp; When he was governor, Mahaprasad Adhikari made several financial reforms during the latter half of his tenure to stimulate the economy, including tightening credit flow.&nbsp; By the last fiscal year, additional financial reforms had resulted in a credit expansion rate of around 8%. As the pace of credit expansion slows, real estate prices have started to fall. This is actually beneficial to the economy, because it lays the foundation for improvements in land-related entrepreneurship, production, and the construction sector. Just because real estate and the stock market transactions increase, it does not indicate an economic turnaround — especially when manufacturing and productive sector continues to languish.&nbsp; “It is foolish to believe that real estate and the stock market have magically revived our economy. Agriculture employs more than half of the population, but it is in decline. Investment in the productive sector has not increased, and job creation has not increased.” Two years ago, Nepal’s industrialists, business leaders, and political leadership predicted a recession amidst a sluggish business, declining market demand, large-scale job loss, and a shrinking real estate and share market.&nbsp; Still, the economy grew by 3.36% in fiscal year 2023/24. In fact, Nepal’s economy has grown nominally over the last two decades even when all sectors of the economy are in decline.&nbsp; Says Keshav Acharya: “The growth in trade, real estate, and the stock market are bubbles. The real economy remains stagnant.”

Nepal’s bubble economy

The final investigation report on the crash of a Saurya Airlines jet on 24 July 2024 at Kathmandu airport has revealed flaws in the carrier’s technical operation procedures, poor monitoring by the Civil Aviation Authority of Nepal (CAAN) and gaps in the airport’s emergency response. Eighteen people including a child were killed, and only the captain survived as the plane plunged seconds after takeoff, crashing within the airport perimeter. This was the latest in a series of aircraft accidents in previous years, and further tarnished Nepal’s already poor aviation safety record and contributed to the country being retained in the EU’s air safety list. &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; The circumstances in the Saurya crash were different from the Yeti Airlines crash in Pokhara in January 2022 that killed all 72 on board, and two Tara Air crashes in February 2016 and May 2022 on approach to Jomsom that together claimed 45 lives. However, all four tragedies were a result of negligence of carriers and crew, failure to follow procedures, regulatory slackness, and overconfidence. The Saurya crash, especially, was a glaring example of how an ailing airline broke its own rules to allow passengers, including non-employees, a joy ride to Pokhara on a maintenance ferry flight. CRASH REPORT The Final Investigation Report prepared by the Aircraft Accident Investigation Commission and released on the first anniversary of the crash last week carried a long list of rules that were ignored or broken, and of regulatory failure. The first mistake was to cram spares, tools and inflammable chemicals needed for the aircraft’s C-Check in Pokhara into the cargo hold flouting its own ground handling procedures.&nbsp; There was no check-in of passengers, some of whom were not even employees – even though regulations say only flight and maintenance crew should be on board a maintenance positioning flight. Many brought their own luggage into the plane and stored it unsecured in the cabin. There was no flight attendant to give a safety briefing to passengers. The load and trim charts given to the flight crew were rough estimates, and the total takeoff weight of the plane was 18,300kg plus or minus 200 kg. That would still have been all right, but there was a glaring mistake in the speedchart Saurya pilots were using to calculate the minimum takeoff speed (known as VR), and it had been wrong ever since the 21-year-old aircraft entered service with the airline in 2017. FAULTY DATA&nbsp; The Commission probed Flight Data Recorder inputs from previous takeoffs of the Canadian-built CRJ200-LR in 2023-2024 and found that the undetected error in the speedchart had caused the plane to pitch up at an abnormal rotation rate at least 18 times on previous takeoffs.&nbsp; Any rotation rate more than 3°/sec is regarded as unusual. But on at least two occasions, this aircraft with tail number 9N-AME had rotation rates of 5.8°/sec and 5.5°/sec, the second one was when the pilot who survived was flying in March 2024.&nbsp; On this particular day, the plane’s rotation rate was 6.5°/sec, causing it to go into a deep stall soon after takeoff, the Commission report said. Essentially, the plane was not flying fast enough down the runway to take off safely.&nbsp; It is not yet clear whether excess weight, unsecured luggage, wrong centre of gravity were also factors, but relying on a faulty speedchart for the given takeoff weight, the captain flying pulled back on the yoke before the plane had reached takeoff speed and at a pitch angle that was too steep. The investigation report says the plane then went into a deep stall and started banking right with the stick shaking. At this point, the flight officer on the right hand seat is heard on the cockpit voice recorder saying: “Whoa, whoa, whoa. Sir, Sir, Sir…” It then banked left before the pilot flying turned the plane sharply to the right again in an evasive action to avoid the parking aprons of the international and domestic terminals. Had he not done so, there would have been a disaster of a much greater magnitude at Kathmandu airport that day. The plane scraped the runway with its right wingtip, collided with a container having helicopter spare parts, and plunged into a gully east of the runway, exploding in a fireball. The investigation also noted that the impact forces seemed to be survivable for some occupants. The fire trucks took unnecessarily long to reach the site even though it was inside the airport perimeter. The absence of an ICAO-standard runway strip, inadequate rescue drills, lack of training, and a blocked emergency service gate leading to the crash site were cited as other factors. &nbsp;&nbsp; <h2>Timestamp of a Disaster</h2>  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110724_39cdd04693994ce6e55a5b302905c0fa4884fe85bed21ff0779bb1439f3a5725.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20250731110724_39cdd04693994ce6e55a5b302905c0fa4884fe85bed21ff0779bb1439f3a5725" data-rendition-name="original" width="778" height="826" loading="lazy" alt="Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy NT"> </figure>  11:10:34 - The Saurya Airlines CRJ200 on the takeoff roll from runway 02. It had a takeoff weight of about 18,300kg, but the pilot’s speedcard had a previously undetected mistake about the minimum takeoff speed. 11:10:55 -The plane with tail number 9N-AME goes into deep stall soon after takeoff because it does not have enough speed to lift its weight. The plane also has an abnormally steep nose-up attitude.&nbsp; 11:11:03 - Without enough speed to generate lift, the plane banks right, then left and right again in CCTV photos taken from the domestic apron (below). If it had not banked right, it could have hit the aprons and terminal buildings. Seen parked is Saurya’s other CRJ200 with tail number 9N-ANM.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110732_608132f7225c649125cca2691dd6a6bf930984c5b359e888d7ad9e5eacce3afd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20250731110732_608132f7225c649125cca2691dd6a6bf930984c5b359e888d7ad9e5eacce3afd" data-rendition-name="original" width="770" height="555" loading="lazy" alt="Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy NT"> </figure>  11:11:08 - The plane scrapes the runway with its right wingtip, and falls into the gully. The captain is thrown off the left side of the cockpit and survives. 11:11:15: Plane explodes in a fireball inside the airport perimeter. Firefighters take time to reach the site because of lack of access road and a blocked gate. Read the full investigation report <a href="https://www.tourism.gov.np/files/9N-AME%20AIC%20Final%20Report.pdf">here</a>.

Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy

American artist Peter Makela was in Nepal in 2022 on a Fulbright scholarship when he experienced the Matya festival in Patan in which devotees made the rounds of the city’s shrines.&nbsp;
He joined the procession, walking through 2,600 stupa and 140 bahal of the town. That immersion left a lasting impression.
As part of Gallery Mcube’s international residency program in Patan, he put his inspiration to canvas in the exhibition Yala Yatra: Walking, Working, Worshipping. The exhibition also coincides with this month’s Matya festival.&nbsp;
Makela has visited Nepal often in the past 11 years but he mostly stayed in and spent his time around Boudha. “This time I stayed in Patan, put the sites I wanted to visit on my map, and off I went,” he tells us. “Each of my artwork is inspired by the stupas and shrines in Patan that I visited.”
The stupa and Ganesh are recurring motifs in his watercolours, and the elephant gods are located in chaityas — reflecting the interplay and blending of the Hindu and Buddhist faiths in Kathmandu Valley.&nbsp;
The stupas and Ganesh are painted in vivid red, yellow, blue and green against abstract backgrounds meant to represent the sky.
“I use the sky as a backdrop because the sky has no border,” says Makela. “The four colours represent the four elements, the different Buddha families and also lights bouncing off of a rainbow.”
The use of just four colours for all the artwork stands out, and combined with the absence of heavy canvases, frames or stands render Makela’s art striking in its simplicity.&nbsp;
The Ganesh is always holding something and the art also portrays the elephant god’s sacred vehicle, the mouse.
While his vibrant stupas and Ganesh reflect the tangibility of Patan’s tradition and heritage, it is as if the backdrops with their shades of grey and red and yellow capture the soul of the city’s shrines.
“If you look closely, there is a sense of form and formlessness at the same time,” he says.&nbsp;
Makela walked 108 kora around the shrines during his exploration of the town, and in the process developed a spiritual connection with Patan’s heritage and traditions.&nbsp;
The exhibition connects with visitors on a deeper, more spiritual, level as well. And with it, they feel a sense of pride as well as the need to urgently preserve Patan’s heritage for future generations.
“Peter’s inclination and approach towards Nepali art and culture is fascinating, and it reflects in his work,” says Mcube curator Manish Lal Shrestha, whose international artist residency program promotes Nepal’s cultural heritage. &nbsp;&nbsp;
Yala Yatra: Walking, Working, Worshipping
1-5 August&nbsp;
10AM-7PM
Gallery Mcube, Patan

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Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy

Walking, working, worshipping in Patan