<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114121112/6372230a9c7e80680e0c032ejpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000"/><figcaption>A house that toppled over in the aftermath of the disaster in Melamchi.</figcaption></figure>The flood in Sindhupalchok a year ago on 15 June swept away Asha Gurung’s dreams. The mother of three was swift enough to save her children but lost her house, cattle, eatery and all other valuables to the disaster.At Ambathang, nine people including Asha’s family were stranded after the debris flow receded. Helicopters started hovering over them early the next morning, but were unable to find a spot to land and could not airlift them.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114121112/6372230d9c7e80680e0c032fjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1125"><figcaption>Ratopul bridge in Helambu's Chanauta Bazar was swept away by last year's melamchi flood. All photos: SONAM LAMA</figcaption></figure>The family was trapped with no chance for rescue. So they made a desperate walk to the village of Timbu because the alternative was to die of starvation. “We had many sleepless nights, we walked for hours knowing that there was no escape since the road were entirely blocked,” recalls Gurung.Gopal Tamang also lost his home and elder brother Purna Tamang, 38, in the flood. Purna was swept away by the Melamchi River from a trout farm near his home in Halde. Despite many days of search, his family could not retrieve the body, compelling them to perform the death rituals in its absence.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114121112/637223109c7e80680e0c0330jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1125"><figcaption>Gopal Tamang helping out locals of Halde with relief materials. He lost his older brother to the flood.</figcaption></figure>The disasters in Helambu and Melamchi and their scale were unprecedented, residents had never before seen the river rage like swallowing settlements, farms and infrastructure. Although the region is prone to flooding and landslides, the fact that the monsoon started comparatively earlier in 2021 caught many by surprise."The Melamchi River swallowed my brother and left an irreplaceable void in the family,” says Gopal. “We neither received any early warning nor had any idea how to respond to the disaster and seek safety."The floods destroyed a total of 259 enterprises, including Nepal's biggest water supply project and several trout farms. The municipality alone lost nearly 180 hectares of farmland which served as a lifeline for the region's subsistence farmers.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114121112/637223149c7e80680e0c0331jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1440" height="648">At least 25 people were killed in the Melamchi-Helambu disaster but the toll would have been much higher if the local government had not issued early warning about floods.“Even then such measures are insufficient for disaster-prone areas like Sindhupalchok,” says environmentalist Rabin Raj Niraula who studied the landslide in the Bremathang area which had eventually led to the catastrophic debris flow on the Melamchi river, adding that new technology can be used for more accurate predictions of impending cloudbursts, floods and landlsides.Disasters are multilayered and precipitation patterns have changed due to the climate crisis. This means responses should be even more prompt, accurate and tech smart.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114121112/637223179c7e80680e0c0332jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="3507" height="2480"><figcaption>An OpenStreetMap highlights a community's disaster risk areas.</figcaption></figure>“Tools like OpenStreetMap could provide crucial topographical details, identify disaster-prone areas and inform us on the status of roads on whether they have been washed out after a flood,” explains Niraula. “All of these are live-saving information for community people, for them to be prepared for untoward situations.”OpenStreetMap (OSM) is an important tool to enhance community engagement, it is free and an open web map that anyone can edit as required. Its significance was first realised during the 2015 earthquake response where more than 7,500 contributors worldwide supported logistics of the Nepal Government and non-government organisations involved in the relief.Many OSM-related data mapping and validation projects have been run in coordination with local government and non-government organisations in a few municipalities including Chautara Sangachowkgadi and Melamchi in the Sindhupalchok district.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-needs-weather-stations-in-the-himalaya/">Nepal needs weather stations in the Himalaya</a>, Rijan Bhakta KayasthaThese municipalities have developed a BIPAD portal to enhance disaster preparedness and coordination post-incident, strengthen disaster communication and emergency response. To improve the database of the municipalities, the portal has used free tools, open street maps and stored geo-data of schools, hospitals, banks and other infrastructures located within the municipality.“The development of the portal was crucial and timely. We have free information sources at our fingertips if only we are aware and are trained to use them,” says Sujan Dulal, disaster focal person of Melamchi Municipality.The portal has geospatial data that has helped enhance understanding of navigating locations and infrastructure located within Melamchi. This means it can identify open spaces, emergency shelters to be used post-disaster, areas that can serve for relief distribution and also mark vulnerable structures.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114121112/6372231a9c7e80680e0c0333jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1125"><figcaption>Post flood glimpses of buildings destroyed in the Melamchi flood.</figcaption></figure><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114121112/6372231e9c7e80680e0c0334jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1125"><figcaption></figcaption></figure>For Asha Gurung and Gopal Tamang, openstreetmap could have helped them in timely rescue, identifying helicopter landing spots and tracking emergency shelters post floods.Moreover, monthly reports could be prepared using ward-specific data collected on Loss and Damage through the portal which can then evaluate the nature of a disaster to develop local plans, policies and strategies and mitigate risks or speed up preparedness.But while the municipality portal has an abundance of information, the system for data entry at the local level needs to be improved. Two wildfire incidents that occurred recently in the area could not be updated in the lack of access to the system.During the time of a disaster, there is often too much information and data coming in from varied sources. In such cases, the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Committee (NDRRMA) BIPAD portal refers to the local police to reduce duplicity and maintain authenticity.The portal in itself is an effective tool to disseminate information to the public but the gaps in data sustain due to lack of coordination. “We are now forming a data management team that could collect and analyse data acquired from all different sources and cross verify to meet accuracy,” says Dijan Bhattarai, Under Secretary at NDRRMA.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114121112/637223219c7e80680e0c0335jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000"><figcaption>Locals in Melamchi building a gabion fence to stop the velocity of water.</figcaption></figure>To accelerate disaster preparedness, NDRRMA and the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM) recently introduced impact-based forecasting in a few municipalities across the country.The existing flood forecasting system is capable of only predicting floods in possible areas. But the impact-based forecasting conducts impact assessment and warns of associated risks if a flood hits a particular area, helping to mitigate disaster risks way before it occurs.The impact-based forecasting examines ‘potentially exposed area’ and ‘potentially impacted area’. The data for the exposed area of any municipality is taken from open street maps.“We are trying to engage local governments in disaster vulnerable districts with the usage of tech-friendly data platforms,” says Reena Bajracharya, Program Manager at Youth Innovation Lab.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114121112/637223249c7e80680e0c0336jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="800" height="600"><figcaption>A school demolished by the Melamchi flood of 2021.</figcaption></figure>As for Sindhupalchok, one of the most disaster-prone districts of Nepal, particularly following the 2015 earthquake, a data platform called 'visualising risk' has been initiated at four local levels.Using this platform, viewers can identify buildings, bridges and areas vulnerable to floods and landslides. This is particularly important because many residential homes in Ambathang and Dhending in Helambu are at the highest risk this monsoon.It is crucial to understand hazards and their risk to better mitigate and manage them, especially for a country like Nepal with its topographical challenges. And because disasters hit local communities the hardest, mitigation should also start locally. And the most cost-effective way to do that is to put the locally available data to its best use.Says environmentalist Rabin Raj Niraula: “There has been several studies about last year’s flood and yet there is a dearth of information among the locals because they were not disseminated. The onus lies on local governments to break down the data into information and encourage communities to participate in disaster preparedness and save lives.”Read more: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/a-disaster-resilient-nepal-is-possible/">A disaster resilient Nepal is possible</a>, Anil Pokhrel

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On high monsoon alert in Nepal

<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110161128/636d18a39c7e80680e0ac7d8jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="800" height="464"/>Nepal’s trans-Himalayan district of Manang is located in the rain-shadow, and is a high altitude desert. Its average annual rainfall is barely 300mm, but it got nearly double that <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/monsoon-hits-nepal-with-a-bang/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">rain in just one week</a> in June.The region had seen a seven-month winter drought, and was <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/wildfires-ravage-nepal-mountains/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">ravaged by wildfires this spring</a> that burnt for three months. Then came the monsoon: dumping 300% more rain than the average for June-July.The steep slopes scorched by wildfire could not absorb the heavy rain, and a wall of water, mud, boulders and logs washed down the Marsyangdi River, washing away highway, bridges, settlements and other infrastructure.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110161128/636d18a59c7e80680e0ac7d9jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="960" height="639">Three and half months later, the scars of that devastation are still seen everywhere in the towns of Chame and Taal. Residents are still waiting for help from the government, while charities and activists have provided relief material.Scientists are reluctant to blame a single weather event on the climate crisis, but there is a growing consensus that <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/human-face-of-a-himalayan-climate-crisis/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">a hotter Himalaya </a>is leading to more erratic monsoons, droughts, floods and wildfires. The 2021 monsoon was proof of that.Minrasi Gurung and his family in Naso village of Manang used to have his hands full all year round growing vegetables in a large patch by the river. Income from selling potatoes, chilli and tomatoes to trekking lodges supported the entire household.But the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/drones-to-the-rescue-in-melamchi/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">flood on the Marsyangdi River</a> on 15 June swept away the family’s farm, and the river is now flowing through a boulder-strewn debris field where the farm used to be.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110161128/636d18aa9c7e80680e0ac7dajpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1368" height="912"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110161128/636d18ad9c7e80680e0ac7dbjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110161128/636d18b19c7e80680e0ac7dcjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000">“We have been tilling this land since the time of my great grandfather, never before has there been such a disaster,” he says.Minrasi has now moved with his wife Masini to Myagdi River on the border of Lamjung and Manang districts to open a tea shop. “The floods and landslides displaced us,” they say.The scenic town of Taal used to be a popular stopover for trekkers on the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/the-other-abc-trek/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Annapurna Circuit</a>, and there were many lodges on a ledge overlooking the Marsyangdi. The water rose so high on 15 June that it washed away the lodges, and seven of the 57 houses in the village are still liveable. None of the hotels survived however, one would be hard-pressed to even locate their ruins.Keshav Gurung of Taal spent much of his life in the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/where-have-all-the-guides-gone/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">tourism business</a>, and he ploughed his earnings to upgrade his hotel, never thinking of investing elsewhere because trekking brought good income.But the flood swept away his Rs40 million hotel, and he is now living in a tent in a plot owned by his neighbours. He used to make Rs1.6 million a year in profit from the 21-room hotel.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110161128/636d18b59c7e80680e0ac7ddjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000">Golamaya Gurung in Sirantal had a 10-room hotel, a house and half a hectare of land. All of this is now gone, she barely managed to save her own life as the floodwaters rose.A helicopter rescued Golmaya and her neighbours two days after the disaster from a cave they had fled to. Since then, she has not been able to return to what used to be her home.“There is no way I can get there at the moment. From a distance, I can see the river flowing where my house once stood, I can identify the general location of my house because of a tree that is still standing,” says Golmaya.The floods on the Marsyangdi River and its tributary, Thada Khola, caused the most damage in <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/Off-the-road,237" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Taal</a> and Dharapani municipalities. The district headquarter at Chame is still cut off because the road was washed away by the flood and numerous landslides.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110161128/636d18b89c7e80680e0ac7dejpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000">Kamarkali Gurung owned Hotel Heaven in Dharapani, popular with trekkers. There is no sign of it now. She put in all her savings and spent Rs20.5 million on the hotel, and had been running it for eight years.“I invested everything in that hotel, what happened is so unexpected, so shocking, I still cannot believe that I have lost it all,” she says.Bhuturam Gurung of Chame had also been running a hotel for 15 years, but both his house and hotel were washed away by the Marsyangdi that fateful day. “I had never seen an angry river like that in my life,” he recalled. Bhuturam’s families and three others are now living in Manang’s district prison, which has been converted into a shelter.There is no exact estimate of the damage wrought by the 15 June flood yet. But according to Chief District Officer Bishnu Prasad Lamichhane, the disaster cost at least Rs1.1 billion. A municipality investigation showed a much higher number.“The government observation doesn’t match the ground situation, we estimate over Rs4 billion in damage,” says Palden Chopang Gurung, MP from Manang district. “Chame and Naso alone suffered over Rs3 billion in damaged private buildings, schools, electricity lines and roads. But that is just two municipalities, more bridges and roads have been affected.”A recently completed track from Manang to Bhartang is badly damaged with a 2km-long stretch washed away by the floods. While a new route is under construction, the terrain poses a challenge and the progress has been slow. The landslide-damaged road between Dharapani and Chame also poses risks for travellers.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110161128/636d18bc9c7e80680e0ac7dfjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1440" height="664"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110161128/636d18bf9c7e80680e0ac7e0jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1440" height="664">“It’s impossible to resume smooth transport like anytime soon, we have settled for a temporary road for now,” says Chairman of Chame Village Municipality Lokendra Ghale.Following the floods, the chief minister of Gandaki Province Krishna Chandra Pokhrel has visited the disaster site three times in a helicopter, he also announced Rs200,000 in relief for each family. But three and a half months later, locals are yet to receive any help.Earlier this year,<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-govt-fills-cabinet-after-3-months/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"> Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba’s government</a> declared Manang as a high-risk district, following which Home Minister Bal Krisha Khand and Energy Minister Pampha Bhusal also choppered in to make more promises that have not been kept.“We haven’t received any help from the central government, the only relief has been from Manang people living in Kathmandu or abroad,” adds Ghale. “All these experts in Kathmandu who have linked the disaster to climate change are also all talk and no action.”Located in the Himalayan rainshadow, Manang gets only about 300mm of rain a year. But on 15 June, it got 212mm of rain in just 24 hours. The average rainfall for March-June in Manang is about 40 mm, but this year it got 135 mm in that period.“The soil in high mountains can be easily washed away by the rain as they are not as firm,” says geography professor Subodh Dhakal at Tribhuvan University. To make matters worse, Manang saw fires burn continuously for three months last winter. Monsoon cloudbursts then hit slopes where the soil’s absorptive capacity had been reduced by previous wildfires. The runoff disgorged itself into the Marsyangdi River.“Due to the rise in average global temperature, there is more moisture in the monsoon system, and these have managed to find their way to the other side of the mountains, this is a clear link to global warming,” says climate scientist Ngamindra Dahal.The average increase in temperature in Manang is also higher than other districts at lower elevations, and is 0.09 Celsius higher than elsewhere, according to the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology.This is in line with the finding that the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/a-hotter-himalaya/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Himalaya is getting 0.3-0.7 Celsius warmer </a>than the global average, and is a warning for a much hotter Subcontinent and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/weve-seen-fire-and-weve-seen-rain/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">more frequent disasters</a> in the coming days.

Himalayan floods a sign of worse to come

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110141152/636d02a69c7e80680e0a3690jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="857" height="500"/><figcaption>Two scientists are drawfed by the thick loose sediment field brought down by the flood and deposited on the 2.5km long flat valley floor. The sediment field is crumbling and adds more debris into the Melmchi. Photos: SHIVA BASKOTA</figcaption></figure>Two months after a <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/the-monsoon-mess-in-melamchi/">massive debris flow</a> on the Melamchi River knocked out Nepal’s most expensive water project, geologists investigating the disaster say the danger will remain for decades to come.Torrents of boulders and mud paste buried the headwork of the <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/page/melamchi-coming-to-kathmandu">Melamchi Water Supply Project</a> under 20m of debris on 15 and 30 July. Waves of mud washed away the highway and bridges connecting the site, submerged settlements, and killed at least 30 people.The much-delayed <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/light-at-the-end-of-the-melamchi-tunnel/">$800 million project</a> had started test distribution of water from the Langtang National Park through <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/page/melamchi-coming-to-kathmandu">a 26.5km tunnel to Kathmandu</a> residents. Fortunately, the tunnel had been sealed for inspection a few hours before the flood hit that day, and was saved.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110141152/636d02a99c7e80680e0a3691jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1013" height="562"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Geologists and experts are now trying to study the upper reaches of the Melamchi watershed to determine what caused the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/the-monsoon-mess-in-melamchi/">disastrous debris flow</a>, and to see if anything can be done to mitigate future floods. What they found does not bode well.Project engineers say that the two big floods in July caused damage worth more than Rs2 billion, including a 22km link road, 6 bridges, warehouses and offices. Six project staff from Nepal, India and China were killed.“Melamchi is now uncertain, we do not know when we can restart the project,” says senior divisional engineer Rajendra Prasad Pant. “We need to make a much more extensive study of the watershed upstream to determine if we can control future floods, and if so how long it will take.”Indeed, aerial inspection and satellite imagery of the Melamchi Valley upstream shows a massive sediment field that is constantly collapsing and being washed down by heavy monsoon downpours.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110141152/636d02ab9c7e80680e0a3692jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="815" height="410"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110141152/636d02ad9c7e80680e0a3693jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="907" height="640"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Engineers say they are trying to mobilise heavy earthmovers to clear the debris and send water into the tunnel again through a temporary channel by the end of the year to resume water supply to Kathmandu. Just this part of the job will add another Rs1 billion to the cost of the project.But there remains the enormous challenge of dealing with the 2.5km long crumbling sediment field upriver, which they say will pose a danger for decades to come. No one has an estimate of how much any mitigation measures will cost, or if it is even possible.But besides immediate repairs at the headworks, the disaster has also put on hold the second and third phase of the project, which was to extend the tunnel to Yangri and Larke, two parallel valleys to the east to augment the tunnel capacity by another 340 million litres per day.Although engineers had studied the upper reaches of the Melamchi to scope out any glacial lake or unstable slopes, they had never expected the sediment field to be so fragile and unstable.“So far, we think the disaster was caused by record rainfall in the catchment area which had been destabilised by the 2015 earthquakes,” says Shiva Baskota of the Department of Mines and Geology, who recently flew over Bhemthang region, and said he saw extensive slope failure on the Melamchi and its tributary stream, the Pemdang.<figure><figcaption>Aerial photo of the confluence of the Melamchi and Pemdang Rivers taken after the 30 July flood.</figcaption></figure><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110141152/636d02b29c7e80680e0a3695jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="960" height="640"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Baskota estimates that some 150 cubic metres of fluvial, glacial or lacustrine deposits still sit on the river upstream at an elevation of 3,500m, and this is constantly being washed down by the river because of continuing heavy rains. On 11 July, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-needs-weather-stations-in-the-himalaya/">a weather station</a> in nearby Sermathang recorded <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/monsoon-hits-nepal-with-a-bang/">110mm of rain in 24 hours.</a>Some scientists blame the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/disasters-in-nepal-come-in-waves/">extreme weather events</a> on climate change, and say that heavy downpours are now falling on higher altitudes where there used to be snowfall. Other researchers believe that in addition to heavy rainfall, a glacial lake higher up could have burst, adding material to the debris flow.“It looks like there has not been an adequate disaster risk assessment of the catchment area,” Baskota says. “This means we have to study the glaciers above Yangri and Larke before starting the next phase of the Melamchi water project.”There is a way to reduce the danger from future flooding along the Melamchi by building check dams along the river to slow the flow of the debris. But engineers admit it is a huge and expensive undertaking which has to start as soon as the monsoon ends to be prepared for next year’s rains.Climate scientist Raju Pandit Chhetri says that the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/a-hotter-himalaya/">impact of global warming</a> in the Himalaya is only going to increase, so current and future infrastructure along the mountains have to take the risk into account.“Bridges, highways, water supply all have to be designed to withstand extreme events,” says Chhetri. “It may drive up the cost of the project, but it will prevent greater loss. Planning for a disaster like this would not have affected the Melamchi project as badly as it did.”<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110141152/636d02b59c7e80680e0a3696jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="853" height="640"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Some water experts say that an expensive project like Melamchi should never have been built in the first place, when cheaper alternatives to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-needs-to-plan-for-plenty-and-scarcity-of-water/">supply water</a> to Kathmandu through reservoirs on the Valley rim to store monsoon water was possible.“Even back then, some of us had warned that Melamchi was not suitable,” says water scientist Ajaya Dixit. “We had not foreseen a disaster like the one this year, but we knew that Sindhupalchok’s rugged terrain made it a risky place to invest in expensive infrastructure.”Government officials, however, say that although the Norwegian consultants of the Melamchi project had assessed seismic and environmental risk and designed it for a lifespan of 100 years, nothing like the flood in July was ever expected.“What was perhaps not factored in was the new risk added by accelerated global warming,” says Pant.A British consultant had conducted a study in 1988 of rivers in and around Kathmandu Valley to select the most suitable river for a project to augment the Valley’s water supply, and Melamchi was chosen as the most appropriate on the basis of flow, natural gradient and proximity.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110141152/636d02b89c7e80680e0a3697jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="853" height="640"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>The Melamchi project was thus launched with support from the Asian Development Bank (ADB), but it was delayed due to political interference, local opposition, earthquakes, blockades, pandemic and other upheavals.The project therefore took three times longer than it should have and was inaugurated only on 4 April 202`1 by President Bidya Devi Bhandari. Households and businesses in Kathmandu felt a great sense of relief that the water had finally arrived, but within three months the flood damaged the project and taps went dry again.In the Ministry of Water Supply, there is already talk of finding alternative sources of water for the Valley even if Melamchi is restored – because of the continued flood risk on the river, and the fact that the project will not be able to satisfy the thirst of an expanding capital.At present the water utility for Kathmandu supplies between 90-170 million litres to consumers every day from existing reservoirs, streams and groundwater. Melamchi had doubled that supply, but it still did not meet demand. Pumping groundwater has also lowered Kathmandu’s water table, and that supply is dwindling.Adapted from the <a href="https://www.himalkhabar.com/news/125894?fbclid=IwAR2I5UufeaISdu2Osxb8Yp0FpurIImwHwavx02htF_C_HPokMEICh3TV3Rw">Nepali original</a> in the September-October edition of Himal Khabarpatrika.

Still chasing the Melamchi mirage

<figure><img width="1500" height="1000" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110141124/636cfc549c7e80680e0a0b81jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Photo: NATIONAL DISASTER RISK REDUCTION AND MANAGEMENT AUTHORITY (NDRRMA)</figcaption></figure>The <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-valley-suffers-quadruple-disaster/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">debris flood on the Melamchi River</a> has been continuous since the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/monsoon-hits-nepal-with-a-bang/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">start of the monsoon on 15 June</a>. Since then, more than 20 people have been killed, more than 100 homes washed away and 400 households displaced. Six highway bridges, and 12 suspension footbridges have been swept away. The $700 million Melamchi Water Supply Project has been damaged even before it came into full operation, and will need expensive and extensive repairs. Basanta Adhikari, Associate Professor of Engineering Geology has just returned from an inspection visit, and spoke to Nepali Times.Nepali Times: From your trip, what appears to be the main cause of this continuing flood?Basanta Adhikari: Due to the weather we could not fly to the headwaters, but looking at videos, it seems that there was always a large amount of glacial and fluvial debris accumulated at a place called Bhremathang. Since the<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/after-the-deluge-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"> muddy flood</a> is continuous, I am certain it cannot only be attributed to the landslide on 15 June that blocked the river. All that debris that had accumulated is being constantly washed down.  How much debris are we talking about? And what is it made of? That calls for more study. But there seems to be a multiple thick layer of sand, mud and boulders that have been brought down from the mountains and collected in a relatively flat area. It is also possible that thousands of years ago, a landslide blocked the Melamchi, leading to an accumulation of sediment in what is now a dried up lake bed. Besides this, this could also be part of a glacier that has receded. These are all just possibilities, nothing can be said for sure until further research is done. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/a-hotter-himalaya/">A hotter Himalaya</a>, Editorial <figure><img width="233" height="277" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110141124/636cfc569c7e80680e0a0b82jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Basanta Adhikari</figcaption></figure>How long will there be a risk of more floods threatening the Melamchi project headworks and downstream valleys?  Looking at the debris field there, it is likely that the effect will be quite long-term. Every time there is heavy rain, the loose boulders and sand will keep being washed down. The debris accumulation has to be thoroughly studied before we can say anything about its long-term effects. Only after studying the volume of the debris field can we predict how long it will affect downstream areas. Research Is also needed to design mitigation efforts.Is there a way to stop the flood upstream so it does not threaten the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-needs-to-plan-for-plenty-and-scarcity-of-water/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Melamchi project</a>?We cannot top the flow where the debris field is currently located. However, if we build  a series of check dams, the danger from floods can be reduced. There is sufficient technology and manpower to do so, but it all depends on whether the government has the political will and the funding to carry it out. If preventive measures are taken in time, threats of future catastrophes can be minimised.What lessons can we learn from the Melamchi flood? We must thoroughly analyse what lies upstream before we design any infrastructure or settlements. What are the potential dangers? What can be done to safeguard against future disasters? When planning  large-scale projects like Melamchi, we should model the potential for natural disasters, and engineer them accordingly. The Melamchi flood has reminded us of the importance of researching that an expensive project like that must The extensive damage caused by the natural disasters is a reminder that we should not take Himalayan geology for granted, and formulate policies accordingly. Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/drones-to-the-rescue-in-melamchi/">Drones to the rescue in Melamchi</a>, Nepali Times

The monsoon mess in Melamchi

Nepali Congress (NC) President Gagan Thapa's candidacy in Sarlahi-4 has thrust this Madhes constituency into rare national focus. If Thapa wins and the NC emerges as the largest party, Sarlahi-4 will send Nepal's next prime minister to Parliament. But if he does not, Nepal’s grand old party will face the next years in the opposition to fight another day. There is a troubling paradox in Sarlahi-4 where the district bordering the Indian state of Bihar has been a battleground for national politicians with fierce electoral competition, all while remaining one of the region's most underserved and underdeveloped constituencies.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485.png" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485" data-rendition-name="original" width="1802" height="1276" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: MADHES PAHARA MEDIA</figcaption> </figure>  Ever since Mahant Thakur split from NC in 2008 to form the Tarai Madhes Loktantrik Party, the district has seen rotating political alliances and fragmented votes. Yet, despite 18 years of candidates promising change irrigation schemes remain incomplete, market access for farmers has not improved, unemployment is high.&nbsp; On election day, voters here marked their ballots with fingers stained by dye from the Holi festival the day before. The road leading to Barathawa Bazar was deserted for the most part, except for some youth riding in motorcycles. This is where the high-profile contest between Gagan Thapa and RSP nominee Amresh Singh is being staged. Among the other aspirants is 27-year-old UML candidate Amnish Yadav, the son of former MP Shiv Pujan Yadav. The Yadavs are a political family with considerable caste influence in the constituency. In 2022 Yadav’s daughter Madhumala Yadav received over 14,000 votes here, ranking third overall. Yadav was voted MP from the Maoist party, but defected to the UML this time. His other son is the chair of Sarlahi’s Ramnagar Rural Municipality. Sarhali-4 has 121,012 voters, and the Yadav is banking on the 27,000-strong Yadav vote bank. Sarlahi-4 voter Avishek Sah told us he wanted his vote to go to a young nominee and not someone who has been MP thrice already, like Amresh Singh. &nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10" data-rendition-name="original" width="1200" height="1600" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  To make local loyalties even more complicated, Amnish Yadav’s uncle, Harinder Yadav is an active NC member and walked side by side with Gagan Thapa during his door-to-door campaigns.&nbsp; The NC is betting on Thapa getting over 60% of the total votes. Amresh Singh’s tally could be limited to 10,000 votes — that too because of the nationwide RSP wave, and the popularity of its prime ministerial hopeful Balendra (Balen) Shah. “Amresh Singh lost his appeal when he played victim after he was denied a ticket by the NC in 2022,” Harinder Yadav says. Voters we spoke to here agreed with this assessment that Singh did not do much for the district once he got elected in the past, and being a part of the RSP seems to be his biggest asset. “The only reason I voted for Amresh Singh is because Balen is in RSP,” local voter Mahendra Gupta from Barathawa. &nbsp;“This is his last chance to return the people’s trust.”&nbsp; Gupta is aware of the institutional presence of the NC here. The party received the most votes in 2022 local elections, adding that the candidacy of someone as high-profile as Thapa is a positive sign for Sarlahi-4.&nbsp; Other voters like Ruby Gupta are rooting for both the NC and the RSP. “I will vote for Gagan and for Balen,” she says, adding that her FPTP vote will go to Thapa while her PR ballot would be for the RSP. RSP supporters are confident that their candidate will win big because even though many voters may not have openly voiced their support they still voted for the party and candidate. The Balen Wave was not limited to RSP voters, but also to UML candidate Yadav, who said in a gathering that he will be “the voters Balen” if they elect him. He touted his party’s track record in government, and largely campaigned on administrative efficiency, infrastructural expansion, and local service delivery. Amresh Singh ran on the RSP’s anti-establishment brand, promising to fight corruption, challenge traditional party politics, improve basic services such as education, health, jobs, and infrastructure, while pushing for stronger representation and development for Madhes.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="1200" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo:AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  Singh’s rivalry with his NC competitor goes beyond the ballot— he allegedly blames Thapa for being denied the NC ticket in 2022, which led him to win the election from Sarlahi-4 as an independent. &nbsp; For his part, Gagan Thapa focused on a more pragmatic development agenda that includes upgrading roads and irrigation, improving schools and hospitals, supporting farmers, and creating employment opportunities with improved governance at the centre. He also promised to build an engineering college in the constituency.&nbsp; Thapa also promoted his own anti-establishment image within the NC, repeatedly reminding voters on the campaign trail that he represents the aspirations of the youth.&nbsp; On Thursday, as voting progressed, there were violent disruptions in two centres where voting was briefly halted. But Sarlahi district police spokesperson Saroj Rai told Nepali Times that there were no major problems. Police in collaboration with the Nepal Army sent the ballot papers to the district’s counting stations, where the votes are expected to be tallied through the night and the winner announced Friday morning.

Sarlahi-4 nervously watches ballot count

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Nepal election live results

As this report is uploaded, the latest results in Nepal’s election show that the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) is headed for an even bigger sweep than most had predicted.
The RSP was leading by large margins in 49 of 165 constituencies, &nbsp;with the UML, NC and NCP trailing far behind. Prominent political figures from the old parties like K P Oli, Minwndra Prasad Rijal, Ishwar Pokhrel, Bishnu Prasad Poudel, Bimalendra Nidhi all seem headed for defeat.
It does look like the RSP’s bell election symbol is ringing right across Nepal — from cities to the remotest districts in the mountains and plains. The party’s blue colour is sweeping the land.
The Nepali people seem to have sent a clear message that they were throughly dissatisfied with the chronic failure of the three main parties to work in the national interest to create jobs and deliver development. It was also an expression of lingering outrage over the the 8 September massacre outside Parliament. &nbsp;
It now looks almost certain that Balendra Shah will get to be Nepal’s next, and youngest, prime minister. Hopefully he will be leading a cabinet of competent and honest technocrats. It remains to seen how the power equation between Shah and the RSP’s leader, Rabi Lamichhane will play out.
Lamichhane is out of jail on bail for fraud cases which he has called political vendetta by the previous regime. Both he and Shah are charismatic and ambitious. Their working relationship will determine Nepal's political stability and whether it can avoid the political cronyism of the past.
This election was not just about casting votes. It was about standing up to principles and a value system, and respecting the hopes and aspirations of Nepal’s youth. It to push for transparent government and against impunity — including for the gunning down of young Nepalis in cold blood.
<div class="embed-block"><iframe src="https://election-geo-dashboard.pages.dev/" width="100%" height="600" frameborder="0"> </iframe>Live election results as winners of candidates are announced.</div>
CAN DO MAN
Shah got mixed reviews as mayor. He was impulsive and ad hoc, but most people inKathmandu and beyond liked his can-do attitude and unconventional style which stood in sharp contract to the legacy leaders. Over his three year mayorship he showed more maturity and planning capacity.&nbsp;
But he always ran headlong into opposition from the federal government over his urban planning and other initiatives to make Kathmandu more liveable. Coming from a civil and structural engineering background, he was involved in building low-cost housing after the 2015 earthquake.
But his public persona is more tied to his irreverent rap lyrics that stood up for the marginalised underprivileged in society, while exposing the high-handedness and apathy of the state. But this also exposed contradictions because he also used his own municipal guards to beat and chase away street vendors and squatters.
But there is no doubt that a combination of the sharp messaging in his rap videos amplified by the algorithms of social media ignited Nepal’s youth to rise up. It was more about optics and emotion than policy and strategy.
He studied Kathmandu district for five years, visiting experts in every field before announcing his independent candidacy for mayor in 2022. Many like me in his own constitunecy did not know who he was and where he came from.
He is a year younger than my architect son, and I saw in him a reflection of my own son’s commitment to serving the nation. I voted for him to be mayor despite his sometimes erratic behaviour, which could be attributed to his youth.
The best sign of his strategic planning, which unsettled septuagenarian and octogenarian politicians, is the he did not grab the first easy option of becoming prime minister in September when GenZ activists offered him the post.&nbsp;
Joining RSP was a masterstroke, as was his challenge to Oli in Jhapa to project national branding. He needed a party platform and Lamichhane needed a popular prime ministerial persona since he himself could not hold the post.
Shah has shown the capacity to take risks when he believes the value justifies the action for the country. Now, he will have to show more strategic thinking on a national scale, as well as understand the delicate geopolitics of Nepal.&nbsp;
He must rise above the kind of crude social media posts that earned him followers on X, but did nothing to erase his erratic and impulsive image.&nbsp;
Some assume that behind his trademark RayBan shades is a closet dictator, and his past remarks about Hitler are still up on social media. He has in the past shown impatience with criticism, unleashing supporters on social media to troll detractors.&nbsp;
Even so, the public seems willing to place their hope on an educated young man with integrity and a proven record for planning at the helm. By tomorrow it will be clear whether the hope Nepalis have held has been fulfilled, and the coming years will show if the RSP will lead Nepalis to a better future.
The voters seem to have shown the door even to the NC despite the fact that under Gagan Thapa, the party had turned a new leaf. A strong government under Prime Minister Balendra Shah heading a carefully selected cabinet and a strong opposition of the NC, UML and other parties for check and balance may be just what we need for a stable Nepal.&nbsp;
Nepalis have collectively always shown maturity in elections. This time they have given a resounding endorsement for integrity and for good governance.

Bells ring all over Nepal

After Thursday’s election, Nepalis are in a wait-and-watch mode. The Election Commission says counting ballot papers will be expedited this time, and the results for the First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) will start being declared within days. In 2022, it took three weeks for the final results to be tallied.&nbsp;
But winning an election is only half the challenge for the parties, forming a government under parliamentary politics is like a complicated mathematical equation.&nbsp;
In 2022, the Nepali Congress (NC) emerged as the biggest party, winning 89 seats. But the UML with 78 seats and the Maoists with 32 formed a minority government. In fact, Sher Bahadur Deuba did not become PM then despite leading the biggest party in Parliament.
This time, there is an unmistakeable Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) wave led by its prime ministerial candidate, Balendra Shah. Besides his own popularity, Shah represents change which most Nepalis are clamouring for after decades of corrupt and feckless coalitions that did not deliver.&nbsp;
The past months of campaigning has seen massive youth engagement on social media through memes, AI clips, and viral images. Digital content that appeals to emotion rather than policy debate between candidates shape electoral outcomes in Nepal and elsewhere. &nbsp;
Shah represents GenZ aspirations, and was their candidate for prime minister. It was only when he declined that Sushila Karki was nominated. None of the political parties in the recent past -- new, old, or revolutionary — have won enough seats to go it alone.&nbsp;
The most recent majority government was formed by the short-lived Communist Party of Nepal after the UML-Maoist merger in 2022. But that rare two-thirds majority collapsed after a power struggle between K P Oli and Pushpa Kamal Dahal. The only party to have won a majority was the NC in the 1991 and 1999 elections. But it is near impossible for it to repeat this success now, even with Gagan Thapa's rebranding of the party.&nbsp;
We have compiled these possible scenarios for election outcome in order of likelihood:
RSP gets a majority
RSP hits the magic 138 to form a government entirely on its own. Balendra Shah wins Jhapa-5, and becomes the new prime minister at 35, the youngest ever to hold the office in Nepal. But danger lurks: there could be a personality clash between Shah and Lamichhane who are both equally ambitious. History could repeat itself.&nbsp;
RSP wins but does not get a majority
RSP is likely to sweep the most votes, but what if it does not secure enough seats for a majority? It would need a coalition partner and Nepali Communist Party (NCP) under Pushpa Kamal Dahal could fit the bill, but only if it has the numbers. The RSP is not likely to team up with the UML or NC.
The NCP is relatively untainted by the 8 September events, and also has former UML defectors like Madhav Kumar Nepal and Bhim Rawal who could bag their rural vote banks. After all, there are no permanent foes in politics. If the royalist RPP and Tarai-based Janata Samajwadi have enough seats, those could be options for the RSP. &nbsp;
NC is second
The NC under the new leadership of Gagan Thapa could become the second biggest force and form a government with RSP in a power-sharing deal with Shah. This would be the most stable scenario since the RSP and NC have competent and idealistic young technocrats. Thapa himself embodies a strong combination of both old and new politics to navigate the system for more efficient government. But then Thapa and the RSP's Rabi Lamichhane do not get along.
NC and NCP form a majority
If the NC becomes the largest party but not by a big margin, it could join up with the NCP and Ujyalo. Teaming up with the UML would likely face backlash with the party and outside. If Gagan Thapa becomes prime minister he will face internal pressure from both Deuba loyalists. Same old story.
Minority coalition of NC, UML and NCP
RSP becomes the first party but does not get a majority, paving the way for the three legacy parties to cobble together a minority government. While this is possible in Nepal’s parliamentary system, such a scenario is likely to lead to more instability and dissatisfaction among young Nepalis demanding change, and even trigger street unrest. &nbsp;

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