The marathon Indian election race and its nail-biting finish was watched with great interest in Nepal, and nowhere more so than here in the borderlands of the Tarai. <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/modi-fever-in-motihari">Next door in the Indian states of Bihar and Uttar Pradesh</a>, the BJP faced a dramatic upset — even in Ayodhya, where Narendra Modi had inaugurated a Hindu temple complex built on the ruins of a mosque earlier this year.&nbsp; Kathmandu-based India ‘experts’ spread many conspiracy theories ahead of the elections mainly about how <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/southerly-winds">Modi’s Hindutva political ideology</a> would spread to the Tarai. They were unable to distinguish between political Hindutva and faith-based Hindu activities. Even though the BJP is expected to form the next government, it is behaving as if it lost the election because it set the bar too high for itself. Despite all the parties uniting in the I.N.D.I.A. alliance led by Rahul Gandhi of the Congress party, it still got less votes than the BJP. Yet the alliance is celebrating a victory.&nbsp; The main message of the Indian election result that should have relevance for Nepal is that voters in the world’s largest democracy refused to whole-heartedly support the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/volatile-mix-of-politics-and-religion">BJP’s divisive religious extremism</a>, and have given a nod to inclusion, tolerance and equality.&nbsp; Populism, the cult of personality, faux-nationalism, the muzzling of media and civil society, as well as religious and socio-cultural polarisation will ultimately be rejected at the grassroots. It was India’s Dalits, indigenous people, and the marginalised who punctured the BJP’s saffron balloon.&nbsp; But the Indian electorate also put the BJP back in power to reward Modi for <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/india-s-election-and-its-economic-future">the visible progress in infrastructure</a>, and making many Indians feel good about themselves. The BJP party is facing internal tension as it analyses why the party did not do as well as expected. The ill-concealed rivalry between the RSS and the BJP, the alienation of India’s sizeable Muslim and Dalit population strengthened the hand of the Congress. It is said that the road to power in New Delhi is via Uttar Pradesh, because of the state’s sheer population size. The BJP Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh Yogi Adityanath, who is also the high priest of the Gorakhnath Temple with strong ties to the Nepal monarchy, is expected to now have less clout in New Delhi.&nbsp; This means the political forces in Nepal who were <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/india-s-hindutva-politics-influencing-nepal">trying to roll back secularism and restore the monarchy with moral support from the South</a>, will also face a setback. The border states of Bihar and Uttar Pradesh both largely rejected the politics of religious extremism.&nbsp; The election has also boosted Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar of the Janata Dal, who has been supportive of Nepal’s democratic path. The fact that he and the Congress are now stronger in Delhi will reassure Nepal’s democratic forces, however, the leaders in Kathmandu will have to face the fact that their future political careers depend more on domestic performance rather than who rules in Delhi. The other two Indian states bordering Nepal are Sikkim and Uttaranchal. Prem Tamang of the Sikkim Krantikari Morcha won a landslide, while in Uttaranchal the BJP won with its strident call to make the state an exclusive Hindu Holy Land. One often overlooked fact is that India’s relations with Nepal are determined more by bureaucracy in the south Block of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs than politicians. But India’s fraught relationships with several regional nations and growing competition over regional influence with China means that Nepal is very much on Modi’s radar.&nbsp; The BJP was in power when Nepal suffered a five-month blockade, and it could be that an insecure Modi in 2024 will try to assert dominance again to signal detractors back home that he is still in charge.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2024060702064_5cce435fbad4f3dc0e9cd84ad3664071d9bd007e58c1b0c83927cde9400cb39f.jpg" data-media-id="editor_5" data-image-id="2024060702064_5cce435fbad4f3dc0e9cd84ad3664071d9bd007e58c1b0c83927cde9400cb39f" data-rendition-name="original" width="2480" height="1491" loading="lazy" alt="Indian election results NT"> <figcaption>GLORY TO THE PARTY: The mood at the Friends of BJP party at the Radisson Hotel in Kathmandu on 4 June was subdued since the expected landslide victory of Narendra Modi's BJP did not materialise. Guests included Nepali politicians, Indian expats, and the media. Photo: BIKAS RAUNIYAR(c)BR</figcaption> </figure>  One pollster broke down in tears on tv as the final results were coming in on Tuesday. The NDA that includes the BJP won 293 seats in the federal parliament, while I.N.D.I.A. led by the Indian National Congress won 234 seats. A party or coalition needs to win at least 272 out of 543 seats to form a majority.&nbsp; To say India's election results were unpredictable would be an understatement. Exit polls had predicted a massive <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/new-year-same-difference">win for the BJP and Modi</a>.&nbsp; The BJP by itself won 240 seats falling wildly short of its election promise of 400. Unlike in 2014, and 2016, the BJP will need to depend on its allies to form a government. Modi’s key allies in the NDA coalition, Janata Dal United’s Nitish Kumar and the Telugu Desam Party’s Chandrababu Naidu who are said to have aspirations of their own to become Prime Minister, are now kingmakers. &nbsp; During his last two terms, that very majority gave PM Modi the power to control his Cabinet at whim, but he no longer has that luxury. The BJP’s underwhelming performance was due to a growing void between the BJP and its Hindu ideological guru the RSS, animosity between Modi and influential BJP leaders like Uttar Pradesh CM Yogi Adityanath, and the Indian general public’s heightening discontent towards Modi and the BJP’s Hindutva politics. In Uttar Pradesh, where the BJP had won 62 out of 80 seats in 2019, this time it won only 33 and the Samajwadi Party of I.N.D.I.A. alliance won 37 out of 80 seats. Modi’s decade-long rule over India has been characterised by his monopolistic control over the political mechanism and state institutions, a media sector full of lapdogs, a silenced civil society and persecuted opposition, as well as increasing socio-cultural polarisation.&nbsp; Over the years, Modi’s former f<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/borderlines/the-south-wind-blows">ringe Hindutva ideology spread like wildfire</a> to the mainstream, and the struggles faced by Dalits, Muslims, and other minorities were swept under the rug. But democratic and political movements across the world have shown us that the relentless targeting of marginalised communities eventually leads to resistance against the injustices brought upon them by the dominant groups. The results of the election are a reflection of the growing intolerance to the suffering of everyday Indian citizens and have served as a safety valve of India’s democracy. Modi is infamous for his long memory. He systematically silenced critics and dissenters and developed a God complex. Meanwhile, Rahul Gandhi and his INC won 99 seats, and seems to have keyed into the pulse of India, forgoing the politics of polarisation to focus on pressing issues including a massive unemployment problem, inflation, social security, and farmers’ rights. The INC did not win overall, but its election strategy gained traction.&nbsp; Overall, Modi seems more relieved about I.N.D.I.A.’s failure to collectively win as many parliament seats as the BJP did on its own than about being prime minister for the third time.&nbsp; Chandra Kishore is a Birganj-based media commentator and writes this monthly column Borderlines for Nepali Times. @kishore_chandra

Chandra Kishore

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Demodification of India

It is still election time in India. The <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/new-year-same-difference">polls in the world’s largest democracy</a> started on 9 April and will end on 1 June, and is in full swing across the Nepal border.&nbsp; Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s BJP is <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/southerly-winds">campaigning on a fail-safe Hindutva-agenda</a> in India’s northern heartland. Despite the BJP being weaker in the south, Modi is looking to continue his premiership for the third consecutive year but perhaps with a smaller margin.&nbsp; On Tuesday, Modi was scheduled to address an election rally in Motihari in East Champaran district of Bihar just across the Nepal-India border. Even as the fifth phase of voting came to an end on 20 May this week, a noisy election rally supporting Modi was going on full blast.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240522100548_ef8e1967ca5cc560e9492daf4daa3e1aaf59c52dcac962fb8efabd22904324dc.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20240522100548_ef8e1967ca5cc560e9492daf4daa3e1aaf59c52dcac962fb8efabd22904324dc" data-rendition-name="original" width="2480" height="1588" loading="lazy" alt="Indian elections Modi rally in Bihar"> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240522100548_1c0e269781bb05cdfb8f1e9ab28cf5f7647615ff6041a176686b2401eb142534.jpg" data-media-id="editor_3" data-image-id="20240522100548_1c0e269781bb05cdfb8f1e9ab28cf5f7647615ff6041a176686b2401eb142534" data-rendition-name="original" width="2480" height="1491" loading="lazy" alt="Indian elections Modi rally in Bihar"> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240522100548_3a42817101f50b7d7cd5e65820a578169c05dc0ac71df9356564eed8ae1fcc93.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20240522100548_3a42817101f50b7d7cd5e65820a578169c05dc0ac71df9356564eed8ae1fcc93" data-rendition-name="original" width="2480" height="1708" loading="lazy" alt="Indian elections Modi rally in Bihar"> </figure>  &nbsp;I reached an hour ahead of Modi’s arrival via helicopter in Motihari, but was not allowed at the premises inside Gandhi Maidan without a special press pass issued by the PMO in New Delhi. Nepali press credentials were not sufficient.&nbsp; Chants from die-hard BJP supporters of “Jai Shree Ram” rang in the air, and it all sounded like a personality cult. Larger than life portraits of Modi are everywhere. &nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240522100548_e66e90e780530fb61ba64b94b710c325f0c272e10736fca0d0b3724219edba68.jpg" data-media-id="editor_5" data-image-id="20240522100548_e66e90e780530fb61ba64b94b710c325f0c272e10736fca0d0b3724219edba68" data-rendition-name="original" width="2480" height="1529" loading="lazy" alt="Indian elections Modi rally in Bihar"> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240522100548_ea4e77a83fa86b5e75bf0d0e6bc529e24246971815284d376156df129a067ffc.jpg" data-media-id="editor_6" data-image-id="20240522100548_ea4e77a83fa86b5e75bf0d0e6bc529e24246971815284d376156df129a067ffc" data-rendition-name="original" width="2480" height="1526" loading="lazy" alt="Indian elections Modi rally in Bihar"> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240522100552_d8a05a8556eccef97206adfa6ba21b9b17cd4634101c4292779d803cacf0e316.jpg" data-media-id="editor_7" data-image-id="20240522100552_d8a05a8556eccef97206adfa6ba21b9b17cd4634101c4292779d803cacf0e316" data-rendition-name="original" width="2480" height="1635" loading="lazy" alt="Indian elections Modi rally in Bihar"> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240522100552_f12cfde789e7b7dedd2a8717b64f132a19fc817da108c308d29ffdda14a39623.jpg" data-media-id="editor_8" data-image-id="20240522100552_f12cfde789e7b7dedd2a8717b64f132a19fc817da108c308d29ffdda14a39623" data-rendition-name="original" width="2480" height="1463" loading="lazy" alt="Indian elections Modi rally in Bihar"> </figure>  &nbsp;The attendees were also shouting “Abaki Baar 500 Par” (BJP will get over 500 seats in Parliament). Some were even shouting “600 Par” (over 600 seats) which is funny because there are only 543 seats in India’s Lok Sabha. So far, Modi’s BJP has surpassed the 300 seat mark as per the Indian media.&nbsp; Female participants of the rally had nowhere but to go behind tin sheds and bushes to relieve themselves. This is ironic given that when Modi came in power in 2014, his election campaigns prioritised building ‘Suchalaya’ (public toilets) before ‘Dewalaya’ (temples).  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240522100548_c1501c5d9eb63cb708f0a52059fcc701c5246b2b50a75fc2057de2ab77715ca1.jpg" data-media-id="editor_9" data-image-id="20240522100548_c1501c5d9eb63cb708f0a52059fcc701c5246b2b50a75fc2057de2ab77715ca1" data-rendition-name="original" width="2480" height="1890" loading="lazy" alt="Indian elections Modi rally in Bihar"> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240522100548_c6b4253d3be988b07358196754ddc871dceed1f3289d242834dbfce22fd615f0.jpg" data-media-id="editor_10" data-image-id="20240522100548_c6b4253d3be988b07358196754ddc871dceed1f3289d242834dbfce22fd615f0" data-rendition-name="original" width="2480" height="1683" loading="lazy" alt="Indian elections Modi rally in Bihar"> </figure>  &nbsp;A decade later, Modi’s journey has come to a full circle: he is building temples to garner votes from <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/india-s-faith-in-politics">Hindu-majority states</a>.

Modi fever in Motihari

<figure><img width="3600" height="2100" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109181156/636be9bb9c7e80680e0878d8jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>The four-member Chinese delegation after landing in Kathmandu on Sunday. Photo: RSS</figcaption></figure>The arrival of a senior Chinese Communist Party (CCP) official in Kathmandu on Sunday, just as the ruling Nepal Communist Party is on the verge of a formal split, has underlined Beijing’s interest in keeping its fraternal party together. The four-member delegation, clad in personal protective outfit, is led by Guo Yezhou, vice minister in the international department of the CCP. He is regarded as being the architect of the unification of the UML and the Maoist parties after their electoral alliance swept the federal polls in 2017. “The CCP appears to be worried that the NCP is headed for a split, and Beijing thinks that if the party splits, India will increase its influence in Nepal,” an NCP source told Nepali Times. “By sending Guo Yezhou to Kathmandu, China is also signalling how worried it is about the political instability in Nepal.” Guo Yezhou had come to Nepal three years ago after the UML and the Maoists signed a 7-point agreement to forge an electoral alliance, and NCP sources said he had <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/from-nepali-press/China-diary,1368" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/from-nepali-press/China-diary,1368&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1609166659205000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHMTu1pBuNBNzqRFwYVPu5BZWwBxg">played a pivotal role</a> then in bringing the two parties together. <figure><img width="1328" height="792" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109181156/636be9be9c7e80680e0878d9jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Guo Yezhou, vice minister in the international department of the CCP who arrived in Kathmandu on Sunday had in 2018 greeted Pushpa Kamal Dahal in a T-shirt at Guangzhou airport. Photo: Nepali Times archive</figcaption></figure>Guo Yezhou is also the same CCP official who greeted Pushpa Kamal Dahal (pictured above) when he visited China in September 2018. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/t-shirt-diplomacy/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/t-shirt-diplomacy/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1609166659205000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHkDERti70_UusdxdYkCzpKG_V8uA">His appearance in a T-shirt to greet Dahal</a> at Guangzhou airport was seen by many at the time as a snub to Dahal, who was party co-chair and K P Oli had been prime minister for just months. Just before going to China, Dahal had returned from a visit to New Delhi where he was greeted with the kind of welcome that heads of governments on official state visits get — he had meetings with Prime Minister Modi, and a banquet in his honour. However, in China a week later, neither President Xi Jinping nor Premier Li Keqiang met Dahal. Instead it was Guo Yezhou in an airport lounge in Guangzhou. For analysts who say every move by China is symbolic, Guo’s attire was taken as a deliberate snub to Dahal.Even then, things were already turning frosty between Oli and Dahal, and New Delhi had appeared to send a message that Dahal was the PM-in-waiting, whereas Beijing wanted Oli to serve his five-year term and for the NCP to remain united. Dahal used to describe himself at the time as a “co-pilot" in the party and government.Chinese Ambassador to Nepal Hou Yanqui had tried to patch up the personal rift between Oli and Dahal that has threatened to split the party twice in 2020, however even she seemed to have given up after Oli dissolved the Lower House on 20 December. She did meet Dahal last week before his faction faction registered a no-confidence motion and claimed the party name and symbol for itself in the Election Commission.Guo Yezhou’s visit also comes amidst reports in the Indian media that Prime Minister Oli <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/pm-oli-to-india/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/pm-oli-to-india/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1609166659205000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGn3CBlA5GtWaqo2CJmoxk51sSgoA">may be visiting New Delhi next week. </a>Nepali officials have neither confirmed nor denied the report. <figure><img width="3600" height="3000" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109181156/636be9c19c7e80680e0878dajpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Guo Yezhou, senior Chinese Communist Party official arrived in Kathmandu on Sunday. Photo: RSS</figcaption></figure>The interest of Nepal’s two giant neighbours in the political crisis in Kathmandu has been heightened as embattled Prime Minister Oli fights for his political survival after the Dahal faction of the NCP is <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepals-1-party-2-central-committees-system/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepals-1-party-2-central-committees-system/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1609166659205000&amp;usg=AFQjCNH3wohjSs9H5GEa7rAtiXjt55uSNA">intensifying a campaign to unseat him.</a> For all practical purposes, the NCP is already behaving like two separate parties.There have been a flurry of visits by senior Indian and Chinese officials in the past month. On 27 November, Indian Foreign Secretary Harsh Vardhan Shringla came to Kathmandu on a fence-mending exercise, following back-to-back visits earlier by <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/indias-multi-pronged-line-to-right-nepal-ties/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/indias-multi-pronged-line-to-right-nepal-ties/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1609166659205000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGbTwcoJgMCaKJJaywqpsBUHEkG8g">Indian Army Chief Manoj Mukund </a>Naravane and top I<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/covid-19-and-the-new-great-game/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/covid-19-and-the-new-great-game/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1609166659205000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFQVVv_k_HECXZ9n6ga3eCzdj517Q">ndian intelligence chief Samant Goel.  </a>This was followed by the one-day visit to Kathmandu by Chinese Defence Minister Wei Fenghe last month during which he met PM Oli and other NCP leaders. Ambassador Yanqui appears to have signalled to Beijing that the NCP rift was too serious, and has called in party heavy lifters from Beijing.Guo Yezhou is scheduled to meet PM Oli, President Bidya Devi Bhandari as well as Dahal and his other loyalist Madhav Kumar Nepal on Monday.

India, China and Nepal's political crisis

<figure><img width="3600" height="2100" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109191124/636bf0a04b0ad905ca02f021jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>The four-member Chinese delegation after landing in Kathmandu on Sunday. Photo: RSS</figcaption></figure>The arrival of a senior Chinese Communist Party (CCP) official in Kathmandu on Sunday, just as the ruling Nepal Communist Party is on the verge of a formal split, has underlined Beijing’s interest in keeping its fraternal party together. The four-member delegation, clad in personal protective outfit, is led by Guo Yezhou, vice minister in the international department of the CCP. He is regarded as being the architect of the unification of the UML and the Maoist parties after their electoral alliance swept the federal polls in 2017. “The CCP appears to be worried that the NCP is headed for a split, and Beijing thinks that if the party splits, India will increase its influence in Nepal,” an NCP source told Nepali Times. “By sending Guo Yezhou to Kathmandu, China is also signalling how worried it is about the political instability in Nepal.” Guo Yezhou had come to Nepal three years ago after the UML and the Maoists signed a 7-point agreement to forge an electoral alliance, and NCP sources said he had <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/from-nepali-press/China-diary,1368" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/from-nepali-press/China-diary,1368&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1609166659205000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHMTu1pBuNBNzqRFwYVPu5BZWwBxg">played a pivotal role</a> then in bringing the two parties together. <figure><img width="1328" height="792" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109191124/636bf0a34b0ad905ca02f022jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Guo Yezhou, vice minister in the international department of the CCP who arrived in Kathmandu on Sunday had in 2018 greeted Pushpa Kamal Dahal in a T-shirt at Guangzhou airport. Photo: Nepali Times archive</figcaption></figure>Guo Yezhou is also the same CCP official who greeted Pushpa Kamal Dahal (pictured above) when he visited China in September 2018. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/t-shirt-diplomacy/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/t-shirt-diplomacy/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1609166659205000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHkDERti70_UusdxdYkCzpKG_V8uA">His appearance in a T-shirt to greet Dahal</a> at Guangzhou airport was seen by many at the time as a snub to Dahal, who was party co-chair and K P Oli had been prime minister for just months. Just before going to China, Dahal had returned from a visit to New Delhi where he was greeted with the kind of welcome that heads of governments on official state visits get — he had meetings with Prime Minister Modi, and a banquet in his honour. However, in China a week later, neither President Xi Jinping nor Premier Li Keqiang met Dahal. Instead it was Guo Yezhou in an airport lounge in Guangzhou. For analysts who say every move by China is symbolic, Guo’s attire was taken as a deliberate snub to Dahal.Even then, things were already turning frosty between Oli and Dahal, and New Delhi had appeared to send a message that Dahal was the PM-in-waiting, whereas Beijing wanted Oli to serve his five-year term and for the NCP to remain united. Dahal used to describe himself at the time as a “co-pilot" in the party and government.Chinese Ambassador to Nepal Hou Yanqui had tried to patch up the personal rift between Oli and Dahal that has threatened to split the party twice in 2020, however even she seemed to have given up after Oli dissolved the Lower House on 20 December. She did meet Dahal last week before his faction faction registered a no-confidence motion and claimed the party name and symbol for itself in the Election Commission.Guo Yezhou’s visit also comes amidst reports in the Indian media that Prime Minister Oli <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/pm-oli-to-india/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/pm-oli-to-india/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1609166659205000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGn3CBlA5GtWaqo2CJmoxk51sSgoA">may be visiting New Delhi next week. </a>Nepali officials have neither confirmed nor denied the report. <figure><img width="3600" height="3000" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109191124/636bf0a64b0ad905ca02f023jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Guo Yezhou, senior Chinese Communist Party official arrived in Kathmandu on Sunday. Photo: RSS</figcaption></figure>The interest of Nepal’s two giant neighbours in the political crisis in Kathmandu has been heightened as embattled Prime Minister Oli fights for his political survival after the Dahal faction of the NCP is <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepals-1-party-2-central-committees-system/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepals-1-party-2-central-committees-system/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1609166659205000&amp;usg=AFQjCNH3wohjSs9H5GEa7rAtiXjt55uSNA">intensifying a campaign to unseat him.</a> For all practical purposes, the NCP is already behaving like two separate parties.There have been a flurry of visits by senior Indian and Chinese officials in the past month. On 27 November, Indian Foreign Secretary Harsh Vardhan Shringla came to Kathmandu on a fence-mending exercise, following back-to-back visits earlier by <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/indias-multi-pronged-line-to-right-nepal-ties/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/indias-multi-pronged-line-to-right-nepal-ties/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1609166659205000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGbTwcoJgMCaKJJaywqpsBUHEkG8g">Indian Army Chief Manoj Mukund </a>Naravane and top I<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/covid-19-and-the-new-great-game/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/covid-19-and-the-new-great-game/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1609166659205000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFQVVv_k_HECXZ9n6ga3eCzdj517Q">ndian intelligence chief Samant Goel.  </a>This was followed by the one-day visit to Kathmandu by Chinese Defence Minister Wei Fenghe last month during which he met PM Oli and other NCP leaders. Ambassador Yanqui appears to have signalled to Beijing that the NCP rift was too serious, and has called in party heavy lifters from Beijing.Guo Yezhou is scheduled to meet PM Oli, President Bidya Devi Bhandari as well as Dahal and his other loyalist Madhav Kumar Nepal on Monday.

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110919118/636bed404b0ad905ca02eed3jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="720" height="480"/><figcaption>Photo: @KTnepal</figcaption></figure>Loyal readers will remember royal leaders we have covered in these pages over the past two decades. The uneasy transition to constitutional monarchy post-1990, the conflict, the <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/page/royal-massacre-Nepal-15-years-later" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">palace massacre</a> of 2001, the attempt by King Gyanendra to <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=14835#.X8c51S2B0b1" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">repeat his father’s coup</a> in 2005, and finally the <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/nepal-from-royal-to-republic,3736" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">abolition of the monarchy</a> in 2008.History keeps repeating itself in Nepal. And once again, we are coming full circle with street demonstrations in <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/saffron-surge-politics,3619" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">support of a return to monarchy and a Hindu state</a>.It is significant that the rallies are happening in the run-up to the 60th anniversary of King Mahendra’s putsch against Nepal’s first democratically elected government led by Prime Minister B P Koirala on 15 December 1960.The current series of protests began in Butwal last month, and moved around the country with a rally in Kathmandu on Monday. They were organised by disparate groups, with tacit support from the Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP).The RPP had not, till now, openly joined the demonstrations. That would have been odd because the demonstrators had called for an end to federalism, and the RPP has one seat in the Federal Parliament. But it has now asked party members to show up for rallies planned for 4 and 5 December in Hetauda and Jhapa, which will see addresses by <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/interview/Advantage,277" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">RPP leaders like Kamal Thapa</a>, Prakash C Lohani and Pashupati Shumsher Rana.There is speculation about why royalists and the Hindu-right have chosen this particular time for a show of force. Obviously, they see an opening in the political space – the ruling Nepal Communist Party (NCP) is <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/outside-looking-in/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">mired in endless infighting</a>, and the main opposition Nepali Congress is leaderless and rudderless.The RPP emerged as the fourth-largest party after the UML, NC and the Maoists in the 2013 Constituent Assembly election, and the party leaders quite rightly seem to surmise that since the other parties have had their chance in government multiple times and squandered their mandate, their time has come.RPP rallies this past month have been well-attended, even though the public is not spontaneously joining in on the flag-waving in large numbers, as the organisers claim. Even so, the crowds represent disillusionment with the past two-and-half years of NCP misrule, factionalism, corruption and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-ruling-party-feud-affecting-covid-19-response/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">poor management of the Covid-19 crisis</a>.The main demands of the demonstrators have been the restoration of the monarchy, and scrapping provisions in the 2015 Constitution that turned Nepal into a federal, <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=3644#.X8c5zi2B0b0" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">secular republic</a>. Past public opinion polls by this paper have shown that while there is not much mass support for a re-thronement of King Gyanendra, there is a sizeable component of the population that is for Nepal becoming a Hindu state again.In a way, the RPP is testing the waters to see if a <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/kundadixit/2017/03/22/southerly-wind/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Hindu monarchy</a> can be a viable electoral plank for the next federal and local elections in 2022. Enthused by the unexpected numbers at rallies, the party is now openly leading a street campaign to stoke populist passions at a time when the NCP and NC are both distracted by their internal squabbles. The RPP believes it can end the current anarchy with a stable monarchy.It’s not that the RPP is not faction-ridden like the rest, it has had frequent splits and reunifications over the past 10 years. There has been tension between those who want Nepal to only become a Hindu state but are not as enthusiastic about the monarchy, and others who want both.In September, this led Sunil Thapa, son of five-time Prime Minister Surya Bahadur Thapa, to defect from the RPP to the NC. RPP leader Kamal Thapa has himself been lukewarm towards monarchy, but now favours a ceremonial or constitutional kingship.The other overarching issue is disenchantment with democracy itself, and the argument that a visionary charismatic leader is better than the current cabal under a western-style parliamentary system. Lending force to this argument is the erosion of democratic values under <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/guest-editorial/modi-india-politics,872" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Prime Minister Modi in India</a>, as well as China’s rising economic and political clout. This coincides with the weakening of the West, which had till recently been giving powerful backing for democracy, press freedom, human rights and secularism.Whatever happens in India has a gravitational pull in Nepal, and the BJP’s Hindu-right ideology could be another factor that has emboldened the RPP. Some rally organisers in Nepal are groups that seem to be offshoots of <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/from-nepali-press/After-Adityanath,3617" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Hindutva elements across the border</a>. However, this convergence has its limits since at some point India’s Hindu juggernaut would collide with RPP’s ultra-nationalist platform.Even as the ruling NCP’s infighting gets more heated, however, the ruling party may be saved from a split because of the RPP’s activism. There is nothing like a common outside enemy to unite a party. Unwittingly, Kamal Thapa may be giving his old coalition colleague K P Oli some breathing space.

Nepal party reincarnating Hindu monarchy

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109181140/636be61e9c7e80680e08778ajpeg.jpg" alt="" width="720" height="480"/><figcaption>Photo: @KTnepal</figcaption></figure>Loyal readers will remember royal leaders we have covered in these pages over the past two decades. The uneasy transition to constitutional monarchy post-1990, the conflict, the <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/page/royal-massacre-Nepal-15-years-later" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">palace massacre</a> of 2001, the attempt by King Gyanendra to <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=14835#.X8c51S2B0b1" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">repeat his father’s coup</a> in 2005, and finally the <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/nepal-from-royal-to-republic,3736" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">abolition of the monarchy</a> in 2008.History keeps repeating itself in Nepal. And once again, we are coming full circle with street demonstrations in <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/saffron-surge-politics,3619" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">support of a return to monarchy and a Hindu state</a>.It is significant that the rallies are happening in the run-up to the 60th anniversary of King Mahendra’s putsch against Nepal’s first democratically elected government led by Prime Minister B P Koirala on 15 December 1960.The current series of protests began in Butwal last month, and moved around the country with a rally in Kathmandu on Monday. They were organised by disparate groups, with tacit support from the Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP).The RPP had not, till now, openly joined the demonstrations. That would have been odd because the demonstrators had called for an end to federalism, and the RPP has one seat in the Federal Parliament. But it has now asked party members to show up for rallies planned for 4 and 5 December in Hetauda and Jhapa, which will see addresses by <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/interview/Advantage,277" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">RPP leaders like Kamal Thapa</a>, Prakash C Lohani and Pashupati Shumsher Rana.There is speculation about why royalists and the Hindu-right have chosen this particular time for a show of force. Obviously, they see an opening in the political space – the ruling Nepal Communist Party (NCP) is <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/outside-looking-in/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">mired in endless infighting</a>, and the main opposition Nepali Congress is leaderless and rudderless.The RPP emerged as the fourth-largest party after the UML, NC and the Maoists in the 2013 Constituent Assembly election, and the party leaders quite rightly seem to surmise that since the other parties have had their chance in government multiple times and squandered their mandate, their time has come.RPP rallies this past month have been well-attended, even though the public is not spontaneously joining in on the flag-waving in large numbers, as the organisers claim. Even so, the crowds represent disillusionment with the past two-and-half years of NCP misrule, factionalism, corruption and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-ruling-party-feud-affecting-covid-19-response/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">poor management of the Covid-19 crisis</a>.The main demands of the demonstrators have been the restoration of the monarchy, and scrapping provisions in the 2015 Constitution that turned Nepal into a federal, <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=3644#.X8c5zi2B0b0" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">secular republic</a>. Past public opinion polls by this paper have shown that while there is not much mass support for a re-thronement of King Gyanendra, there is a sizeable component of the population that is for Nepal becoming a Hindu state again.In a way, the RPP is testing the waters to see if a <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/kundadixit/2017/03/22/southerly-wind/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Hindu monarchy</a> can be a viable electoral plank for the next federal and local elections in 2022. Enthused by the unexpected numbers at rallies, the party is now openly leading a street campaign to stoke populist passions at a time when the NCP and NC are both distracted by their internal squabbles. The RPP believes it can end the current anarchy with a stable monarchy.It’s not that the RPP is not faction-ridden like the rest, it has had frequent splits and reunifications over the past 10 years. There has been tension between those who want Nepal to only become a Hindu state but are not as enthusiastic about the monarchy, and others who want both.In September, this led Sunil Thapa, son of five-time Prime Minister Surya Bahadur Thapa, to defect from the RPP to the NC. RPP leader Kamal Thapa has himself been lukewarm towards monarchy, but now favours a ceremonial or constitutional kingship.The other overarching issue is disenchantment with democracy itself, and the argument that a visionary charismatic leader is better than the current cabal under a western-style parliamentary system. Lending force to this argument is the erosion of democratic values under <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/guest-editorial/modi-india-politics,872" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Prime Minister Modi in India</a>, as well as China’s rising economic and political clout. This coincides with the weakening of the West, which had till recently been giving powerful backing for democracy, press freedom, human rights and secularism.Whatever happens in India has a gravitational pull in Nepal, and the BJP’s Hindu-right ideology could be another factor that has emboldened the RPP. Some rally organisers in Nepal are groups that seem to be offshoots of <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/from-nepali-press/After-Adityanath,3617" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Hindutva elements across the border</a>. However, this convergence has its limits since at some point India’s Hindu juggernaut would collide with RPP’s ultra-nationalist platform.Even as the ruling NCP’s infighting gets more heated, however, the ruling party may be saved from a split because of the RPP’s activism. There is nothing like a common outside enemy to unite a party. Unwittingly, Kamal Thapa may be giving his old coalition colleague K P Oli some breathing space.

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110914114/636ba5bf9c7e80680e0736e1jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000"/><figcaption>Illustration: BHANU BHATTARAI</figcaption></figure>The country is being battered by a coronavirus surge and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepals-virus-vortex/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">hospitals are running out of beds</a> for the seriously sick. The economic fallout of the lockdown is going to be catastrophic. Yet, Nepal’s Prime Minister K P Oli is obsessed about Lord Ram.He stirred a hornet’s nest last month by claiming that <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/k-p-oli-rams-it-home/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Ram was born not in Ayodhya</a>, which is in India, but in Ayodhyapuri, which is in Chitwan’s Madi Municipality.Nepal’s prime minister is adept at political calculus, and he has made it a habit of distracting attention from the real woes of Nepalis with ultra-nationalism, which in Nepal means constant India-baiting. It got him elected in 2017, and because of New Delhi’s mis-steps, it has worked pretty well.However, this time Oli is concocting an explosive experiment by mixing religion with nationalism. And the irony seems to be lost on the prime Communist proponent of secularism to make a mythical god his main agenda.On 7 August, the Ward chair of Madi Municipality Shivahari Subedi got a call on his mobile from Kathmandu. It was the Prime Minister. Subedi was asked to urgently head up to Kathmandu with his mayor.At the meeting in Baluwatar, the prime minister instructed them to plan a shrine at Ayodhyapuri to honour Ram, Laxman and Sita. They were told to have it ready for him to lay the foundation stone on Ram Nawami in April next year. He reportedly told them: “Don’t worry about money, just get it done.”It is significant that Oli’s call to Madi happened the day after just 150km away in Ayodhya, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi<a href="https://www.livemint.com/news/india/ayodhya-ram-mandir-bhumi-pujan-live-updates-narendra-modi-yogi-adityanath-babri-masjid-latest-news-11596601286184.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"> laid a 40kg foundation stone</a> made of silver for a temple dedicated to Lord Ram at the base of a 16th century mosque razed by Hindu extremists in 1992. It set off religious violence in India that claimed 2,000 lives, and have been hugely divisive since.Nepal’s prime minister is trying to do a Modi in Madi. But why would he want to tread on that religious and political minefield?Depending who you speak to, Oli is either a master tactician or a dangerously delusional leader. In May, when a <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-ruling-party-on-verge-of-split/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">mutiny was brewing</a> led by party co-chair Pushpa Kamal Dahal, a lucky diversion created by India’s <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/territorialism/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">inauguration of the Lipu Lekh</a> road saved Oli. The prime minister prolonged that crisis, and got multi-partisan support for a Constitution amendment to alter Nepal’s own official map. Later, when party rivals once more <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-pm-oli-under-pressure-to-resign/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">ganged up</a>, he accused them publicly of being puppets of Indian spooks. And now, when he faces another threat in the party secretariat, he <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/k-p-oli-rams-it-home/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">invokes Ram</a>.In one stroke, Oli extended his confrontation with the Indian state to also antagonise many Indians. Within Nepal, too, he faced criticism and ridicule for his Ayodhya comments. Many said he had gone too far, and for a while it looked like Oli was listening. But by expediting plans to build a shrine in Ayodhyapuri, we know he is dead serious.Oli is trying to blunt the challenge from within his fractious NCP. Madi is also a stronghold of party rival Dahal, and Oli may be castling on the political chessboard. He may also have his sights on the 2022 election, and by trying to be more Hindu than the Shankaracharya, he could be trying to take the wind out of the sails of the royalist RPP, or even the Nepali Congress, who are both using religion. This could be why criticism of Oli’s Ram move is muted within the NCP.For now, the goal seems to be to distract attention away from the failure to manage the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as its economic fallout. The farce is that a supposedly communist leader and avowed secularist is weaponising the Ramayana for political ends.

Opium of the masters

<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109101140/636b75829c7e80680e0623f2jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2048" height="1365"/>Nepal’s Communist Party leaders must take note of two events that unfolded in India this week: <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-south-asia-51638345" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the roaring welcome to US President Donald Trump</a> and the ongoing communal riots in Delhi’s northeastern suburb.That the Narendra Modi government was able to put up a great two-day show to woo Trump, who repeatedly praised Modi and said “America loves India” has been somewhat overshadowed by the violence that has claimed over 20 lives in Delhi.The two events depict contrasting pictures: one of a new emerging India eager to engage with superpowers, even taking lead in issues of international concern. And the other of an India engulfed in violence between some Hindus and Muslims. The ruling BJP and Modi, supported by the right-wing groups like RSS and VHP, find themselves in the vortex of this violence.Trump reached India on Monday and along with Modi addressed the ‘Namaste Trump’ rally in Ahmedabad’s Motera Stadium, the largest cricket stadium in the world, attended by over 100,000 people. The two presented their visions for the next phase of Indo-US strategic partnership.Although the much-awaited trade deal did not happen, the two sides pulled together a $3billion military deal, sought commitments to fight terrorism, narco-terrorism and organised crime and signed three MoUs in the health and oil sectors. Trump even discussed the importance of a secure 5G network in India, ahead of trials involving China’s Huawei which he said must be “a tool for freedom, progress, prosperity, not a conduit for suppression and censorship”.Important for Nepal to note is their dialogue in security cooperation. Besides reiterating that the two countries will work to combat “radical Islamic terrorism” which will dearly affect the functioning of SAARC, Trump praised the military cooperation and said that the US and India, along with Japan and Australia, should work together for security of the Indo-Pacific region as the Quad (Quadrilateral Security Dialogue) grouping.The diplomatic and military arrangements of the Quad are widely viewed as a response to the rapidly increasing economic and military power of China in the region. Sandwiched and landlocked between India and China, Nepal will have to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-now-has-to-balance-not-just-india-and-china-but-also-the-west/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">balance its relations between China and a US-backed India</a>.As it is, a $500 million US-funded <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/mcc-row-damages-nepals-credibility/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Millennium Challenge Corporation</a> (MCC) deal to improve Nepal’s connectivity <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/a-millennium-challenge/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">is in limbo</a> because of opposition from a faction of the ruling Communist Party that sees it as a part of the American Indo-Pacific Strategy. Parliamentary ratification of the project has been delayed.The MCC is viewed with much interest by India’s civil society and academia lately, and is seen as a direct counter to China’s Belt Road Initiative (BRI). Sections of the Nepali establishment views India as an obstructionist power, and are trying to develop closer ties with China.But India is finding more grounds of convergence with the US, which now views South Asia as a vital part of its <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/between-two-oceans/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Indo-Pacific Strategy</a>. Smaller countries in India’s periphery are bound to be trapped in this rivalry. With pressing domestic concerns at home over opposition to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/indian-nepalis-alarmed-by-citizenship-amendment-bill/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the Constitution Amendment Act (CAA) India </a>may play silent and quiet diplomacy leaving the US and China to compete for influence in India’s neighborhood.Trump and Modi are said to have discussed developments in South Asia at length during this visit, meaning they will collaborate and closely consult each other on regional matters. Nepal must gear up to deal with a more forceful America in the near future even when it is already grappling with <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/what-is-xi-jinpings-big-surprise/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a dominant China</a>.It is in India’s advantage if the US temporarily fills the vacuum in Nepal, which New Delhi feels is its traditional sphere of influence. So, the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/a-yam-between-3-boulders/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">foreign policy challenge for Nepal</a> will not be to balance between India and China so much anymore, but getting into meaningful dialogue with China and the US to protect its national interest.India considers the US as its ‘natural ally’. The Modi-Trump equation seen in Gujarat and Delhi this week speaks volumes of their friendship and desire to foster closer ties between the world’s oldest and largest democracies. Even in midst of communal riots in Delhi, Trump stated at a press conference “it is up to India” to deal with the CAA matter, quickly adding that Modi is committed to “religious freedom in India.”Most analysts conclude that if Trump is re-elected in November elections, India’s relations with the United States could be further strengthened.The author is a Nepali journalist and researcher based in New Delhi.

The India, US, Nepal, China quadrangle

<figure><img width="1445" height="2000" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108181144/636a95c69c7e80680e05dc29jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Illustration: DIWAKAR CHETTRI</figcaption></figure>Nothing unites Nepalis more than a dispute with India. So, when India issued its new official map this month putting the <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=1680#.Xc0XfNUzbIU">east bank of the Kali River</a> that Nepal claims squarely within its own territory, all hell broke loose in Kathmandu.The brouhaha could not have come at a better time for Prime Minister KP Oli. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/prime-ministers-health-condition-under-wraps/">In failing health</a>, with falling public support and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/dangerous-driving/">facing serious challenges from within his own party</a>, the dispute with India united politicians across the political spectrum. It also allowed Oli, who has always used nationalism as a political plank, to send the message that he is standing up to India.Even the opposition Nepali Congress, which had been hesitant to speak against India during the <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/thebrief/2015/09/25/unofficial-blockade/">2015 Blockade</a>, this time mobilised its students to protest outside the Indian Embassy. Student unions in some Tarai towns also staged anti-India protests.Read also:<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/territorialism/">Territorialism</a>, Editorial<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=11208#.Xc0Xg9UzbIU">What India wants from Nepal,</a> Rajendra DahalBut it is from his own NCP that Oli faces the greatest challenge, and he has been scrambling to put a trusted caretaker team in place ahead of a planned trip to the United States. Baluwatar insiders say <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/in-wait-and-wait-mode/">Oli may be away for at least two months if he needs a new kidney.</a>Last week in a surprise move, Oli got his team of a dozen advisers to resign en masse. Although it looks like some of them (including his foreign policy and political advisers) will be reinstated after pressure from senior party leaders, the move suggests that the Prime Minister is working on a major overhaul in case he needs to be away longer.On Wednesday, Oli met his main critic within the NCP, former Prime Minister Madhav Kumar Nepal, for the first time since August, when they had an angry exchange in Baluwatar. Relations between the two have not been good since Oli <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/one-body-two-heads/">out-manoeuvred Nepal</a> at the UML party convention four years ago. Nepal is said to have been miffed at Oli’s surprise appointment of new provincial governors.      Read Also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/four-year-itch/">Four-year itch,</a> EditorialSources said the two had a “heart-to-heart talk with self-reflection”, with Oli promising to consult his party colleagues more closely. It is very likely the PM will be looking to induct Nepal loyalists to his reshuffled cabinet, and may have asked Nepal for recommendations. Oli also wants to finalise selection of the 120-member politburo before he goes away, and for this may need Nepal’s help to outflank Pushpa Kamal Dahal.Dahal, for his part, has been biding his time knowing that sooner or later he will be prime minister. His reaction to the border dispute with India has been remarkably lukewarm, calling for a “diplomatic settlement” and the surprising suggestion that Nepal should not internationalise the issue.Prime Minister Oli appears to be preparing for a protracted absence from Kathmandu during which time he does not want Dahal to be calling all the shots.Read Also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/own-worst-enemy/">Nepal PM is his own worst enemy</a>, Editorial

Power plays

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108141156/636a604d9c7e80680e056e72jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1400" height="1011"/><figcaption>Illustration: Diwakar Chettri</figcaption></figure>The Nepal-China agreements on trade, economy, connectivity and security signed during Chinese President Xi Jinping’s state visit last week could mark the beginning of the end of Nepal being in India’s ‘sphere of influence’. If that happens, the strategic shock waves will be felt <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/business/squeezed-in-the-himalaya,3824">beyond Nepal’s borders</a>.The Himalayan mountains have historically been a barrier between Nepal and China, but <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/which-way-will-the-tibet-nepal-railway-go/">railways, roads and tunnels</a> are about to change that. In the battle <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/trilateral-trains/">between geography and technology</a>, Nepal will fall into the Chinese embrace if technology wins. If geography remains a factor however, India can continue to wield political, strategic and geopolitical influence on Nepal. The idea of political geography will come into play around the <a href="https://nepalitimes.atavist.com/the-tibet-train">trilateral relations between China, India and Nepal</a>.Xi’s trip to Kathmandu immediately after his informal summit with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi was geo-strategically nuanced. It showed the confidence China exudes over South Asia vis-à-vis India, and the difference in national comprehensive power between the two strategic rivals says it all: China is far more powerful than India.Read Also:<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/what-is-xi-jinpings-big-surprise/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">What is Xi Jinping’s ‘Big Surprise’?,</a>Saindra Rai and Irtika Bajracharya<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="http://President Xi in Kathmandu" target="_blank" rel="noopener">President Xi in Kathmandu</a>, Nepali Times Nepal has to make a choice, and it seems to have made it. Upgrading Nepal-China bilateral relations from a ‘comprehensive partnership’ to a ‘strategic partnership’ was a masterstroke of Chinese diplomacy. If Nepal has drifted toward China or is increasingly doing so, India’s own Nepal policy is to blame.The top priority of small countries is always security and survival. Their foreign policy behaviour is a response to the possible threat from a bigger neighbour. The fears do not necessarily have to be real, they could be perceived. In geopolitics, perception and speculation determine a state’s response to the geopolitical environment. When small states are cornered, they take risks that have implications for relations with other countries, especially bigger neighbours.The 18 agreements and two letters of exchange China and Nepal inked in Kathmandu last weekend are ambitious and challenging. The timing was also interesting: right after Xi’s India trip and when China-India ties are strained over the Kashmir issue. China’s message to India is that the traditional concept of ‘spheres of influence’ is losing its relevance in geopolitics. And that Nepal cannot be construed a permanent ‘strategic backyard’ of India — it has to belong to whoever wins the power game.The China and Nepal developments are a pointer to what is going to happen in South Asian geopolitics as China continues to rise and India pushes back its inroads into the region. These are not only signposts, there are lessons here. India will have to learn why it is detrimental to its own interest to push a smaller neighbour too much. Similarly, Nepal should ponder whether it is wise to move too far away from India without preparation.An Indian scholar once said to this commentator about Nepal: “If India has learnt one thing, it is not to interfere.” A Nepali scholar said: “Post 2015, Nepal has learnt the danger of depending on one neighbour too much”. It is important to strike a balance to ensure a working China-Nepal-India relationship. This will determine the geopolitical environment of the Himalayan sphere in years to come.For India, the Nepal-China deal is evidence of the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/what-china-really-wants/">changing strategic and geopolitical architecture</a> of its neighborhood. If China-India-Nepal relations are not managed properly, the ramifications will spill beyond their borders. The interests of political giants do not just diverge, they also converge in places, countries and ideas that matter to their national, regional and global ambitions.We cannot discount the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-now-has-to-balance-not-just-india-and-china-but-also-the-west/">interest of other powers, the United States for instance</a>, in the Himalayan dynamic. With Nepal being a candidate for <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/a-yam-between-3-boulders/">the Indo-Pacific strategy</a>, Washington’s reaction to the new developments will be worth following. Nepal, for its part, should not forget that when its political market is open to too many players, it could lose control.Read Also: <a style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em; background-color: #ffffff; outline: 0px;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/yam-between-3-boulders/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">YAM BETWEEN 3 BOULDERS</a>, EditorialWhen push comes to shove, Nepal will have to decide based on <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/hitching-our-wagon/">its own national interest</a>. ‘Nations do not have permanent friends and foes, but only permanent interests’ is still relevant in inter-state relations, especially for smaller countries like Nepal.Nepal’s domestic politics is key to its response to Sino-Indian overtures, and it will have huge implications for the implementation of the deals struck with China. And the way Nepal puts its own house in order and manages its domestic political issues will determine India’s response to the China-Nepal deal. An indifferent or no reaction from New Delhi to China-Nepal bilateral developments do not mean it is not interested. It is in ‘wait and see’ mode, and any unmanageable domestic political fissure in Nepal can wreck the China-Nepal deal.The growing Chinese footprint in Nepal is proof that Beijing is already the chief player in South Asian geopolitics. Its <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/what-china-really-wants/">Belt and Road Initiative</a> is gaining momentum in Nepal and the region despite India’s resistance and non-membership in it. But the future of the recent China-Nepal agreements will depend on Nepal’s foreign policy dexterity and to some extent, on the character of Sino-Indian relations henceforth.China has become a reality in South Asia. Ignoring that fact would be a mistake.Passang Dorji, PhD, is a member of Bhutan’s Parliament, and a scholar on Bhutan and Nepal relations with China and India. The views in this article are his own.FeedbackThis article by Passang Dorji, a relatively distant observer in Bhutan, lacks in sufficient depth in the understanding of the dynamics that is being reshaped positively in recent years between Nepal and India due seemingly paradoxically to the fact of the Himalayan nation moving closer to China. President Xi's recent visit to Nepal has only lent more vigour and momentum to that dynamics. In contrast to the days when Nepal depended on the southern neighbour for most of its needs, India always balked, giving one the impression that sadistic India enjoyed punishing landlocked Nepal. However, now that Nepal chose to move much closer to China post-2015 blockade, India too is now much more cooperative and considerate with Nepal with, for example, the earlier-than-scheduled completion of the Indo-Nepal petroleum pipeline, something that was always needed for Nepal. The author's argument about mounting challenges for Nepal in managing in managing its relations with  India under the shadow of China's deepening presence and influence in Nepal remains hypothetical at best.Bihari Krishna Shrestha

Political geography of India-Nepal-China ties

Heritage champion, exponent of women’s empowerment, philanthropist and founder of <a href="https://www.dwarikas.com/our-story/">Dwarika’s Hotel</a>, Ambica Shrestha, passed away in hospital on Thursday after a brief illness. She was 92.&nbsp; Of her many accomplishments, the Dwarika’s Hotel which was named after her late husband Dwarika Das Shrestha stood as a monument to <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_HM6kNBEbJg">cultural and architectural preservation</a>.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2024071811078_4e670c49f82675e42c25ced2adb251f0b8d22e7ddfe024c396d98b23c283de54.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="2024071811078_4e670c49f82675e42c25ced2adb251f0b8d22e7ddfe024c396d98b23c283de54" data-rendition-name="original" width="1094" height="1424" loading="lazy" alt="Ambica and Dwarika Das Shrestha"> <figcaption>Ambica and Dwarika Das Shrestha in 1972.</figcaption> </figure>  The unique multiple award-winning hotel in Kathmandu used carved wooden windows, columns, eaves and other priceless objects rescued from ancient buildings that were being torn down over the past decades to make way for modern structures. Many of the carved wooden architectural elements in Dwarika's Hotel are therefore museum pieces. The hotel served as a living <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/time-capsule-of-kathmandu">memorial to Kathmandu Valley civilisation</a>, and underlined the importance of heritage conservation among Nepalis. The construction of the hotel also revived Nepal’s ancient wood carving and construction techniques in building and maintaining the property.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240718110712_d83d18d655703d2cfb4b73697f7d73a8029db9dedb4e8962fa5ea874890befc0.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20240718110712_d83d18d655703d2cfb4b73697f7d73a8029db9dedb4e8962fa5ea874890befc0" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="799" loading="lazy" alt="Dwarika's Hotel"> </figure>  Besides the hotel, Ambica Shrestha was the founder of Nepal Heritage Society, a strong proponent of gender empowerment and <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/so-far-so-good/four-years-later-nepals-farmers-rise-from-the-rubble" target="_blank">women in business</a>, and led the <a href="https://www.bpwnepal.org.np/" target="_blank">Federation of Business and Professional Women of Nepal</a> (BPWN). She was the Honorary Consul General of Spain in Nepal, and was conferred the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/business/spain-award" target="_blank">The Order of Isabella</a> medal by the Spanish government in February this year. She also served as Chair since its inception in 1998 of Himalmedia, the company that publishes Nepali Times.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2024071811078_346a6328f28b8fc6258a08fa4153b25ef9c8cdd930ae7174ba59ab7fe028bee2.jpg" data-media-id="editor_8" data-image-id="2024071811078_346a6328f28b8fc6258a08fa4153b25ef9c8cdd930ae7174ba59ab7fe028bee2" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="1019" loading="lazy" alt="Ambica Shrestha"> </figure>  She and her husband founded Kathmandu Travels and Tours, and entered the tourism business in the 1970s during the coronation of King Birendra, and built Dwarika’s Hotel, expanding it in installments over the years. Today, the company also runs a resort in Dhulikhel. Ambica Shrestha’s family was from Sikkim and she moved to Kathmandu after getting married to Dwarika Das Shrestha in 1955, and had three children. She is survived by two daughters, grand- and great-grandchildren. <a href="https://l.facebook.com/l.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fwatch%3Fv%3DreZU7utOln0%26fbclid%3DIwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTAAAR1MZTUnnVTS8VLQPDO00hH_vDCWLBqJwKU_SdGi5R_69E6y9mx1_kDZUv4_aem_nxpD2cG4ruLKtHfqea0jLA&amp;h=AT2f1qT8yFYATI51q6lK-Q3jFOEgCSGNravpZsSZZgxCUxp8_3R1oOjUH33-O97BMVjh-tNpNvngrsWYxUoamkr-ga4e1WJ-EPeD5nx7QmfwlBCkMht3NL4p82CtX4cMajO9Ag">Ambica Shrestha</a> used to say: “There is no shortcut to success, it is a long struggle to preserve our past for the future. And it helps if you ensure that no one in society is left behind.” Read also: <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=1181">Brick by brick by brick</a>, Aarti Basnyat Farewell and tributes from 8-11AM Saturday 20 July at Dwarika's Hotel.

Ambica Shrestha, 92

A Saurya Airlines aircraft crashed immediately after it took off from Kathmandu airport this morning at 11:11AM. 18 of the 19 people on board died, all of them Saurya Airlines engineers and staff. There was a Yemen national among the dead, as well as the wife and child of an employee of the Airlines.&nbsp; The flight, with call sign 9N-AME, was undergoing a C Check, which is a comprehensive test that a plane has to pass on a regular basis. The plane was headed to a hangar in the Pokhara International Airport for a part check-up.&nbsp; It is unclear why a test flight was carrying so many passengers.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240724100712_f2a35a9b1d7f37e675f9b9f0b70508fb5cdaff06cbcb02c6c7d9a776e11f9dbc.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20240724100712_f2a35a9b1d7f37e675f9b9f0b70508fb5cdaff06cbcb02c6c7d9a776e11f9dbc" data-rendition-name="original" width="1029" height="1600" loading="lazy" alt="Saurya Airlines Nepal crash NT 1"> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240724100712_533614914a383fb4659fe1ae09e617a6301fcdb3e37b05ad40a04fb78508bac5.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20240724100712_533614914a383fb4659fe1ae09e617a6301fcdb3e37b05ad40a04fb78508bac5" data-rendition-name="original" width="900" height="1267" loading="lazy" alt="Saurya Airlines Nepal crash NT 1"> </figure>  Footage shows the plane making it about 30 metres high before violently veering right and crashing east of the runway. It plummeted into the ground and burst into flames, skidding ablaze into a container. The plane body was incinerated.&nbsp; According to a press release by Nepal Police, 18 bodies were recovered and taken to Teaching Hospital for post-mortem. Captain Manish Ratna Shakya is the only survivor of the crash. Shakya sustained injuries to his eye and will survive. He is being treated at Kathmandu Medical College in Sinamangal, near the airport.&nbsp; Prime Minister K P Oli got to the accident site for further investigation. Domestic and International flights have since resumed.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240724100712_f97a09e697a4a64f4b9ddbe27d40383125e9c567ff2f901cafa2adf5bee8c553.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20240724100712_f97a09e697a4a64f4b9ddbe27d40383125e9c567ff2f901cafa2adf5bee8c553" data-rendition-name="original" width="2000" height="1333" loading="lazy" alt="Saurya Airlines Nepal crash NT 1"> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240724100712_b99f25e7685804697067edef6a70198e87db6d92854e963e166a43bc4b529754.jpg" data-media-id="editor_3" data-image-id="20240724100712_b99f25e7685804697067edef6a70198e87db6d92854e963e166a43bc4b529754" data-rendition-name="original" width="2000" height="1333" loading="lazy" alt="Saurya Airlines Nepal crash NT 1"> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240724100712_0ac6451e92c640559eba138e8cb795da97c6b7cb6dab911d89427966d8801ddb.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20240724100712_0ac6451e92c640559eba138e8cb795da97c6b7cb6dab911d89427966d8801ddb" data-rendition-name="original" width="1728" height="1152" loading="lazy" alt="Saurya Airlines Nepal crash NT 1"> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240724100712_fee5bb0729632e6a1559eb4ef4a01edf5b2fae8bc764b817a1f635d6a333aed0.jpg" data-media-id="editor_5" data-image-id="20240724100712_fee5bb0729632e6a1559eb4ef4a01edf5b2fae8bc764b817a1f635d6a333aed0" data-rendition-name="original" width="1728" height="1152" loading="lazy" alt="Saurya Airlines Nepal crash NT 1"> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240724100712_736c2572364c614da34dea93efc076f003f43a353cf37177ca40c4221980605e.jpg" data-media-id="editor_6" data-image-id="20240724100712_736c2572364c614da34dea93efc076f003f43a353cf37177ca40c4221980605e" data-rendition-name="original" width="1728" height="1152" loading="lazy" alt="Saurya Airlines Nepal crash NT 1"> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240724100712_e0115c81cd29196e6650360be19061a222a598883366b165d1ecc8f41967bbfe.jpg" data-media-id="editor_7" data-image-id="20240724100712_e0115c81cd29196e6650360be19061a222a598883366b165d1ecc8f41967bbfe" data-rendition-name="original" width="2000" height="1333" loading="lazy" alt="Saurya Airlines Nepal crash NT 1"> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240724100712_5813c761b37a734a84dda64b9212f39f2a6cf29e04f98575c0656ead300fb1df.jpg" data-media-id="editor_8" data-image-id="20240724100712_5813c761b37a734a84dda64b9212f39f2a6cf29e04f98575c0656ead300fb1df" data-rendition-name="original" width="1728" height="1152" loading="lazy" alt="Saurya Airlines Nepal crash NT 1"> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240724100752_c8e1494aa39d5b0df5c2620fbc1c341ee0e0202b4f1328ea3f644882e5119e73.jpg" data-media-id="editor_9" data-image-id="20240724100752_c8e1494aa39d5b0df5c2620fbc1c341ee0e0202b4f1328ea3f644882e5119e73" data-rendition-name="original" width="2000" height="1333" loading="lazy" alt="Saurya Airlines Nepal crash NT "> </figure>  &nbsp;

18 dead in Nepal aircraft crash

It would be a mistake to see this as simply a demand for more jobs. The quota movement, justified as it is, is simply the tip of the iceberg. A rampant government running roughshod over its people for so very long has led to extreme discontent.&nbsp; The quota issue has merely lit the fuse to this tinderbox. As citizens counted the dead and the injured, the prime minister fiddled, advising attendees at an aquaculture and seafood conference on tourism prospects in Cox’s Bazar. The original quota had been designed, shortly after independence in 1972, to be an interim arrangement to acknowledge the contribution of freedom fighters who constituted less than 0.25% of the population.&nbsp; Since a government known to be incredibly corrupt is responsible for creating the list of freedom fighters, over 50 years later the 120-fold allocation through a 30% quota has become an easy back door for party cadres to much sought-after government employment.&nbsp; Confirmation came through senior Awami Leaguers saying, ‘just get through the initial screening and we’ll get you through in the viva’ and more tellingly, ‘government jobs will only go to party people’. The resentment had resulted in protests in 2008 and 2013, but it was in 2018 that it gathered steam. When repressive measures failed to quell that unrest, the prime minister in a moment of rage, overstepped her authority and cancelled the entire system.&nbsp; This had never been a demand of the protesters, who recognised the need for positive discrimination for disadvantaged communities. There are plenty of other reasons for the unrest. The price of essential goods has skyrocketed over the years and people have their backs against the wall.&nbsp; Meanwhile, the Prime Minister herself publicly announces that her peon has amassed $40 million and only travels by helicopter. The peon is not the only one to travel by helicopter. Choppers were sent yesterday to rescue police trapped on a rooftop by angry protesters. 15th July 2024. It was reminiscent of 2018. The police van with water cannons and the long line of policemen standing at the Nilkhet corner on Monday made it abundantly clear that they were prepared. What were they prepared for?&nbsp; Certainly not the defence of unarmed students, or the general public. They failed to lift a finger when the students were being attacked. The armed goons of the Chhatra League (CL, ruling party’s student organisation) had been bussed in the previous night along with, apparently, youth gangs and leaders for hire. Their leaders had openly threatened the protesting students. CL was clearly the ones the police were on standby to defend.&nbsp; It was CL that the quota back doors were designed to favour. As it turned out there was little the unarmed students could do against the helmeted armed pro-government goons who had been left loose and the police were content to let the mayhem continue, stepping in only when the ferocity of people power took the goons aback.&nbsp; We walked past the blood and the strewn sandals in the streets. People stopped us to say the injured had been taken to Dhaka Medical College Emergency Ward. CL goons took positions around the ward where some of the injured were being treated while others marched around the wards, weapons in hand, the police conveniently stayed away. They continued to look away when CL goons went inside the ward to beat up injured students.&nbsp; There was no need to intervene. CL was not in danger. The nation was, democracy was, common decency was, the public was in grave danger, but that was not their concern. The fact that the protection of the public was their primary task, had never been part of the equation. Several were killed all over the country that day. “Justice will take its own course” is a common refrain of the law minister. The separation of the judiciary and the executive has never existed in Bangladesh. With this government, it has merged into one.&nbsp; It is used whenever the government wants to play good cop bad cop. The court enacts government directives. Credit is taken by the government. Blame goes to the court. The quota drama is no exception. Torture cells in public universities. Suppression of all forms of dissent. Jailing of opposition activists. The extra judicial killings, the disappearances. Huge concessions given to India, who have in return, helped prop up this illegal regime are all causes of anger.&nbsp; Abrar Fahad, the bright BUET student who had critiqued Indian hegemony in social media, was bludgeoned to death on campus by party cadres. The same cadres the quotas would provide back doors for. An entire generation of Bangladeshis is growing up hating India and the Boycott India campaign is gaining steam. Hasina is becoming a liability, even for our ‘friendly’ neighbour.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2024072104078_3b92c0b66992ac238232667c7b3b83b4795e872e251d5eb03b42d669656d8c6d.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="2024072104078_3b92c0b66992ac238232667c7b3b83b4795e872e251d5eb03b42d669656d8c6d" data-rendition-name="original" width="2226" height="1484" loading="lazy" alt="Bangladesh unrest"> </figure>  16 July 2024&nbsp; In a recent Facebook status, Abu Sayeed the unarmed student of Begum Rokeya University whom police had pumped four rubber bullets into, had written an ode to his favourite teacher Shamsuzzoha, a chemistry teacher at Rajshahi University, who had died in the hands of the Pakistani army in 1971 while trying to save the lives of his students. “Yes, you too will die, but while you are alive don’t be spineless. Support just causes. Come out to the streets. Be a shield for the students. It is then that you’ll be respected and honoured. Don’t fade away in the annals of time, through your death. Stay alive forever. Stay Shamsuzzoha.”&nbsp; No chopper had arrived, or indeed any attempt made at rescuing the hapless student. He became Shamsuzzoha. The televised murder is an indictment of a rogue government that has long lost its right to rule. The defiant outstretched arms of the young man, a televised murder that will remain etched in public memory. His body shudders after the first bullet, yet defiant he stands, then another bullet, and another and yet another. All from close range. The body crouches, then crumples and folds. His outstretched arms as he had faced the police will become the Tiananmen Square moment in Bangladesh’s history. 17 July 2024&nbsp; Border guards of Bangladesh, inept at protecting its citizens from becoming victims of the regular target practiced by Indian Border Security Forces, seem happy to turn their own guns towards unarmed students instead. The police were clearly lying when they claimed they had fired grenades to try and control unruly students.&nbsp; There were only four students at Raju Bhashkorjo. The only ones who had been able to get past the CL and police cordon. They wanted to hold a funeral for Abu Sayeed and other slain friends. When the police started shoving them away, they lay down on the ground in protest. They were surrounded by journalists. The police hurled a sound grenade which sent both the journalists and students scurrying. They then hurled further grenades at the journalists and bystanders left standing. That was when my colleague got hurt.&nbsp; The police were the only ones being violent. The entire space was encircled by hundreds of armed police. There were armoured vehicles. Water cannon trucks and even a prison van. I wonder which country has supplied our police with the 48 mm sound grenades (NF24. NENF24BP. MFG: 2022. Bangladesh Police/BP). The grenade was hurled directly at her. It was the first time she had joined a protest. At least she got to see how brave our police force is. 18 July 2024 A group of feminists who had planned to gather at Shahbag to express solidarity with the quota protesters, should not have posed a major threat. Police and government goons didn't allow them to gather, so they regrouped outside the Naripokkho office in Dhanmondi. They were attacked too. Safia Azim was injured, but did not require hospitalisation.&nbsp; The law minister, known for lying through his teeth, said earlier on BBC, that it was the protesters who instigated the violence. Meanwhile, the state-run &nbsp;BTV, the National Television Station, had been set on fire. Mobile data was blocked. Things were escalating. That night the Internet went down completely.&nbsp; Rumours spread about the military moving in. Fuelled partially by sightings of a convoy of APCs in the streets. Other sightings of 15 helicopters taking off from the Prime Minister’s official residence gave fuel to the rumours that the Prime Minister was trying to make a getaway. The sound of shelling and gunfire rang throughout the night. 19 July 2024 The Net had been down as had BTV the national television station. Over 50 have allegedly been killed. Pro government news outlets describe the protesting students as ‘miscreants’. A throwback to the term used by the Pakistani Army in 1971.&nbsp; There are other similarities. A flailing tyrant is lashing out to survive against an enraged public which has shaken free of its fear of a repressive regime. The attempt to disrupt the morning protest outside the Parliament Building in memory of Abu Sayeed, failed. Far too many protesters had gathered.&nbsp; The Net had been partially restored, but not BTV. That’s when news of attacks all across the country started pouring in. The left leader Zonayed Saki and other party members, had been badly beaten in Purana Paltan. The police backed vigilantes were desperately trying to quell the increasingly angry protesters. The desperate government offered a deal.&nbsp; The court would convene on Sunday, and they were prepared to engage in dialogue. ‘Not over spilled blood’ the students had replied. Fresh rumours of the military having been given magisterial powers and asked to intervene ‘In aid to civil power’, seems ironic. The people have spoken. The end is nigh. Shahidul Alam is an internationally-renowned Bangladeshi photojournalist and founder of Drik Picture Library and Pathshala photography training institute in Dhaka.&nbsp;

The Bangladesh tinderbox

Another deadly air crash in Nepal has once more made headlines around the world, further corroding the country’s poor aviation safety track record, and prompting questions about why these tragedies keep happening. A Saurya Airlines Bombardier CRJ200 on a maintenance ferry flight to Pokhara crashed on takeoff at Kathmandu airport shortly before noon on 24 July, killing 18 of the 19 people on board.&nbsp; The tragedy raised immediate questions about why a plane on a routine C Check ferry flight was carrying staff, including some with families.&nbsp; Initial reports, including videos of the crash show the plane bank steeply to the right after takeoff from runway 02, descend rapidly and just starting to level off before impact on an open space east of the runway.&nbsp; The captain Manish Shakya appears to have survived because the plane broke in two throwing the front of the plane away from the main cabin which exploded in a fireball. The actual reason why the plane spun out of control immediately after takeoff will only be known once Capt Shakya gives his account, and after an investigation.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240724150756_f97a09e697a4a64f4b9ddbe27d40383125e9c567ff2f901cafa2adf5bee8c553.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20240724150756_f97a09e697a4a64f4b9ddbe27d40383125e9c567ff2f901cafa2adf5bee8c553" data-rendition-name="original" width="2000" height="1333" loading="lazy" alt="Saurya Airlines plane crash"> <figcaption>Photo: SUMAN NEPALI</figcaption> </figure>  Aviation experts say that despite the horrendous loss of life, Wednesday’s crash could have been much worse had the plane veered to the left instead, and hit the international terminal building or the apron which was full of big jets preparing for departure.&nbsp; It was also fortuitous that the plane fell within the airport perimeter in an area where the ground is being levelled for a new international terminal building, and not in the densely populated suburb of Thapagaun east of the runway. The Canadian-built Bombardier CRJ200 of Saurya Airlines with call sign 9N-AME was 21 years old, and the only one flying in the domestic carrier’s fleet. The carrier mainly served trunk routes to Biratnagar and Bhadrapur in eastern Nepal. Among the dead in Wednesday’s crash were most of Saurya’s senior management, and its technical crew, including a Yemeni national. The Saurya Air crash is an outlier in Nepal’s air crash history where most disasters have been blamed on CFIT (Controlled flight Into Terrain, in which a plane hits a mountain hidden in cloud) or pilot error. Nepal’s high terrain, extreme weather and basic navigation facilities make it a challenging place to fly. <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/60-years-of-living-dangerously" target="_blank">An analysis by Nepali Times</a> of 74 fatal crashes in Nepal in the past 60 years with data from various sources shows that a total of 960 have been killed. Some domestic carriers have <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/how-to-make-nepals-skies-safer" target="_blank">lost most of their fleet</a> of aircraft.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240724150756_e3ffc6d8cc2d1e2b3c87fccd95ab06bb0573419e88ecfa3d1fc22362e1a37dff.jpg" data-media-id="editor_3" data-image-id="20240724150756_e3ffc6d8cc2d1e2b3c87fccd95ab06bb0573419e88ecfa3d1fc22362e1a37dff" data-rendition-name="original" width="2778" height="1708" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal aviation accidents map NT"> </figure>  The crash was similar to a Bangladesh airliner that crashed near the runway at Kathmandu airport in 2018, killing 49 and injuring 22. An investigation concluded that the captain of the US Bangla Bombardier Q400 was having an emotional breakdown.&nbsp; A Sita Air Dornier 225 flight to Lukla also crashed soon after takeoff from Kathmandu in 2013, killing 23 mainly foreign trekkers. A probe into that crash showed that one of the causes was that the plane was overloaded. The deadliest international crashes involved Thai and PIA Airbuses on approach to Kathmandu airport within two months of each other in 1992, killing a total of 280 people. <div class="embed-block"><div><div style="left: 0; width: 100%; height: 0; position: relative; padding-bottom: 56.25%;"><iframe src="//cdn.iframe.ly/api/iframe?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fembed%2F78ZbecJ8BCE%3Fsi%3DEn14tig8xSaohj9C&key=87ca3314a9fa775b5c3a7726100694b0" style="top: 0; left: 0; width: 100%; height: 100%; position: absolute; border: 0;" allowfullscreen scrolling="no" allow="accelerometer *; clipboard-write *; encrypted-media *; gyroscope *; picture-in-picture *; web-share *;"></iframe></div></div></div> Records show that 201 people have been killed in crashes in Nepal since 2016, 79 of them in three crashes in just the past two years, the most serious being the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/pokhara-bound-flight-crashes-in-nepal" target="_blank">Yeti Airlines disaster on 15 January 2022</a> at Pokhara airport which had been inaugurated just two weeks previously. The Saurya jet was flying to Pokhara for routine check after leasing the hangar there. Saurya used to maintain its aircraft at Buddha Air’s facilities in Kathmandu, but its hangar was not free. The last fatal accident in Nepal was a <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/chopper-hits-mountain-near-everest" target="_blank">Manang Air helicopter</a> that went down near Lukla last year which killed six. Nepal’s domestic air travel has seen a boom in the past two years because of the poor state of highways. Most roads have been blocked by landslides and floods during the current monsoon, and there have been a spate of bad highway crashes including a debris flow that swept two intercity buses into the swollen Trisuli River on the Mugling highway on the night of 12 July carrying 65 passengers. The buses have not yet been found.&nbsp;

modi

Demodification of India

Modi fever in Motihari

India, China and Nepal's political crisis

India, China and Nepal's political crisis

Nepal party reincarnating Hindu monarchy

Nepal party reincarnating Hindu monarchy

Opium of the masters

The India, US, Nepal, China quadrangle

Power plays

Political geography of India-Nepal-China ties

Ambica Shrestha, 92

18 dead in Nepal aircraft crash

The Bangladesh tinderbox

Unsafe skies