The marathon Indian election race and its nail-biting finish was watched with great interest in Nepal, and nowhere more so than here in the borderlands of the Tarai. <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/modi-fever-in-motihari">Next door in the Indian states of Bihar and Uttar Pradesh</a>, the BJP faced a dramatic upset — even in Ayodhya, where Narendra Modi had inaugurated a Hindu temple complex built on the ruins of a mosque earlier this year.&nbsp; Kathmandu-based India ‘experts’ spread many conspiracy theories ahead of the elections mainly about how <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/southerly-winds">Modi’s Hindutva political ideology</a> would spread to the Tarai. They were unable to distinguish between political Hindutva and faith-based Hindu activities. Even though the BJP is expected to form the next government, it is behaving as if it lost the election because it set the bar too high for itself. Despite all the parties uniting in the I.N.D.I.A. alliance led by Rahul Gandhi of the Congress party, it still got less votes than the BJP. Yet the alliance is celebrating a victory.&nbsp; The main message of the Indian election result that should have relevance for Nepal is that voters in the world’s largest democracy refused to whole-heartedly support the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/volatile-mix-of-politics-and-religion">BJP’s divisive religious extremism</a>, and have given a nod to inclusion, tolerance and equality.&nbsp; Populism, the cult of personality, faux-nationalism, the muzzling of media and civil society, as well as religious and socio-cultural polarisation will ultimately be rejected at the grassroots. It was India’s Dalits, indigenous people, and the marginalised who punctured the BJP’s saffron balloon.&nbsp; But the Indian electorate also put the BJP back in power to reward Modi for <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/india-s-election-and-its-economic-future">the visible progress in infrastructure</a>, and making many Indians feel good about themselves. The BJP party is facing internal tension as it analyses why the party did not do as well as expected. The ill-concealed rivalry between the RSS and the BJP, the alienation of India’s sizeable Muslim and Dalit population strengthened the hand of the Congress. It is said that the road to power in New Delhi is via Uttar Pradesh, because of the state’s sheer population size. The BJP Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh Yogi Adityanath, who is also the high priest of the Gorakhnath Temple with strong ties to the Nepal monarchy, is expected to now have less clout in New Delhi.&nbsp; This means the political forces in Nepal who were <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/india-s-hindutva-politics-influencing-nepal">trying to roll back secularism and restore the monarchy with moral support from the South</a>, will also face a setback. The border states of Bihar and Uttar Pradesh both largely rejected the politics of religious extremism.&nbsp; The election has also boosted Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar of the Janata Dal, who has been supportive of Nepal’s democratic path. The fact that he and the Congress are now stronger in Delhi will reassure Nepal’s democratic forces, however, the leaders in Kathmandu will have to face the fact that their future political careers depend more on domestic performance rather than who rules in Delhi. The other two Indian states bordering Nepal are Sikkim and Uttaranchal. Prem Tamang of the Sikkim Krantikari Morcha won a landslide, while in Uttaranchal the BJP won with its strident call to make the state an exclusive Hindu Holy Land. One often overlooked fact is that India’s relations with Nepal are determined more by bureaucracy in the south Block of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs than politicians. But India’s fraught relationships with several regional nations and growing competition over regional influence with China means that Nepal is very much on Modi’s radar.&nbsp; The BJP was in power when Nepal suffered a five-month blockade, and it could be that an insecure Modi in 2024 will try to assert dominance again to signal detractors back home that he is still in charge.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2024060702064_5cce435fbad4f3dc0e9cd84ad3664071d9bd007e58c1b0c83927cde9400cb39f.jpg" data-media-id="editor_5" data-image-id="2024060702064_5cce435fbad4f3dc0e9cd84ad3664071d9bd007e58c1b0c83927cde9400cb39f" data-rendition-name="original" width="2480" height="1491" loading="lazy" alt="Indian election results NT"> <figcaption>GLORY TO THE PARTY: The mood at the Friends of BJP party at the Radisson Hotel in Kathmandu on 4 June was subdued since the expected landslide victory of Narendra Modi's BJP did not materialise. Guests included Nepali politicians, Indian expats, and the media. Photo: BIKAS RAUNIYAR(c)BR</figcaption> </figure>  One pollster broke down in tears on tv as the final results were coming in on Tuesday. The NDA that includes the BJP won 293 seats in the federal parliament, while I.N.D.I.A. led by the Indian National Congress won 234 seats. A party or coalition needs to win at least 272 out of 543 seats to form a majority.&nbsp; To say India's election results were unpredictable would be an understatement. Exit polls had predicted a massive <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/new-year-same-difference">win for the BJP and Modi</a>.&nbsp; The BJP by itself won 240 seats falling wildly short of its election promise of 400. Unlike in 2014, and 2016, the BJP will need to depend on its allies to form a government. Modi’s key allies in the NDA coalition, Janata Dal United’s Nitish Kumar and the Telugu Desam Party’s Chandrababu Naidu who are said to have aspirations of their own to become Prime Minister, are now kingmakers. &nbsp; During his last two terms, that very majority gave PM Modi the power to control his Cabinet at whim, but he no longer has that luxury. The BJP’s underwhelming performance was due to a growing void between the BJP and its Hindu ideological guru the RSS, animosity between Modi and influential BJP leaders like Uttar Pradesh CM Yogi Adityanath, and the Indian general public’s heightening discontent towards Modi and the BJP’s Hindutva politics. In Uttar Pradesh, where the BJP had won 62 out of 80 seats in 2019, this time it won only 33 and the Samajwadi Party of I.N.D.I.A. alliance won 37 out of 80 seats. Modi’s decade-long rule over India has been characterised by his monopolistic control over the political mechanism and state institutions, a media sector full of lapdogs, a silenced civil society and persecuted opposition, as well as increasing socio-cultural polarisation.&nbsp; Over the years, Modi’s former f<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/borderlines/the-south-wind-blows">ringe Hindutva ideology spread like wildfire</a> to the mainstream, and the struggles faced by Dalits, Muslims, and other minorities were swept under the rug. But democratic and political movements across the world have shown us that the relentless targeting of marginalised communities eventually leads to resistance against the injustices brought upon them by the dominant groups. The results of the election are a reflection of the growing intolerance to the suffering of everyday Indian citizens and have served as a safety valve of India’s democracy. Modi is infamous for his long memory. He systematically silenced critics and dissenters and developed a God complex. Meanwhile, Rahul Gandhi and his INC won 99 seats, and seems to have keyed into the pulse of India, forgoing the politics of polarisation to focus on pressing issues including a massive unemployment problem, inflation, social security, and farmers’ rights. The INC did not win overall, but its election strategy gained traction.&nbsp; Overall, Modi seems more relieved about I.N.D.I.A.’s failure to collectively win as many parliament seats as the BJP did on its own than about being prime minister for the third time.&nbsp; Chandra Kishore is a Birganj-based media commentator and writes this monthly column Borderlines for Nepali Times. @kishore_chandra

Chandra Kishore

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Demodification of India

It is still election time in India. The <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/new-year-same-difference">polls in the world’s largest democracy</a> started on 9 April and will end on 1 June, and is in full swing across the Nepal border.&nbsp; Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s BJP is <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/southerly-winds">campaigning on a fail-safe Hindutva-agenda</a> in India’s northern heartland. Despite the BJP being weaker in the south, Modi is looking to continue his premiership for the third consecutive year but perhaps with a smaller margin.&nbsp; On Tuesday, Modi was scheduled to address an election rally in Motihari in East Champaran district of Bihar just across the Nepal-India border. Even as the fifth phase of voting came to an end on 20 May this week, a noisy election rally supporting Modi was going on full blast.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240522100548_ef8e1967ca5cc560e9492daf4daa3e1aaf59c52dcac962fb8efabd22904324dc.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20240522100548_ef8e1967ca5cc560e9492daf4daa3e1aaf59c52dcac962fb8efabd22904324dc" data-rendition-name="original" width="2480" height="1588" loading="lazy" alt="Indian elections Modi rally in Bihar"> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240522100548_1c0e269781bb05cdfb8f1e9ab28cf5f7647615ff6041a176686b2401eb142534.jpg" data-media-id="editor_3" data-image-id="20240522100548_1c0e269781bb05cdfb8f1e9ab28cf5f7647615ff6041a176686b2401eb142534" data-rendition-name="original" width="2480" height="1491" loading="lazy" alt="Indian elections Modi rally in Bihar"> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240522100548_3a42817101f50b7d7cd5e65820a578169c05dc0ac71df9356564eed8ae1fcc93.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20240522100548_3a42817101f50b7d7cd5e65820a578169c05dc0ac71df9356564eed8ae1fcc93" data-rendition-name="original" width="2480" height="1708" loading="lazy" alt="Indian elections Modi rally in Bihar"> </figure>  &nbsp;I reached an hour ahead of Modi’s arrival via helicopter in Motihari, but was not allowed at the premises inside Gandhi Maidan without a special press pass issued by the PMO in New Delhi. Nepali press credentials were not sufficient.&nbsp; Chants from die-hard BJP supporters of “Jai Shree Ram” rang in the air, and it all sounded like a personality cult. Larger than life portraits of Modi are everywhere. &nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240522100548_e66e90e780530fb61ba64b94b710c325f0c272e10736fca0d0b3724219edba68.jpg" data-media-id="editor_5" data-image-id="20240522100548_e66e90e780530fb61ba64b94b710c325f0c272e10736fca0d0b3724219edba68" data-rendition-name="original" width="2480" height="1529" loading="lazy" alt="Indian elections Modi rally in Bihar"> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240522100548_ea4e77a83fa86b5e75bf0d0e6bc529e24246971815284d376156df129a067ffc.jpg" data-media-id="editor_6" data-image-id="20240522100548_ea4e77a83fa86b5e75bf0d0e6bc529e24246971815284d376156df129a067ffc" data-rendition-name="original" width="2480" height="1526" loading="lazy" alt="Indian elections Modi rally in Bihar"> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240522100552_d8a05a8556eccef97206adfa6ba21b9b17cd4634101c4292779d803cacf0e316.jpg" data-media-id="editor_7" data-image-id="20240522100552_d8a05a8556eccef97206adfa6ba21b9b17cd4634101c4292779d803cacf0e316" data-rendition-name="original" width="2480" height="1635" loading="lazy" alt="Indian elections Modi rally in Bihar"> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240522100552_f12cfde789e7b7dedd2a8717b64f132a19fc817da108c308d29ffdda14a39623.jpg" data-media-id="editor_8" data-image-id="20240522100552_f12cfde789e7b7dedd2a8717b64f132a19fc817da108c308d29ffdda14a39623" data-rendition-name="original" width="2480" height="1463" loading="lazy" alt="Indian elections Modi rally in Bihar"> </figure>  &nbsp;The attendees were also shouting “Abaki Baar 500 Par” (BJP will get over 500 seats in Parliament). Some were even shouting “600 Par” (over 600 seats) which is funny because there are only 543 seats in India’s Lok Sabha. So far, Modi’s BJP has surpassed the 300 seat mark as per the Indian media.&nbsp; Female participants of the rally had nowhere but to go behind tin sheds and bushes to relieve themselves. This is ironic given that when Modi came in power in 2014, his election campaigns prioritised building ‘Suchalaya’ (public toilets) before ‘Dewalaya’ (temples).  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240522100548_c1501c5d9eb63cb708f0a52059fcc701c5246b2b50a75fc2057de2ab77715ca1.jpg" data-media-id="editor_9" data-image-id="20240522100548_c1501c5d9eb63cb708f0a52059fcc701c5246b2b50a75fc2057de2ab77715ca1" data-rendition-name="original" width="2480" height="1890" loading="lazy" alt="Indian elections Modi rally in Bihar"> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240522100548_c6b4253d3be988b07358196754ddc871dceed1f3289d242834dbfce22fd615f0.jpg" data-media-id="editor_10" data-image-id="20240522100548_c6b4253d3be988b07358196754ddc871dceed1f3289d242834dbfce22fd615f0" data-rendition-name="original" width="2480" height="1683" loading="lazy" alt="Indian elections Modi rally in Bihar"> </figure>  &nbsp;A decade later, Modi’s journey has come to a full circle: he is building temples to garner votes from <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/india-s-faith-in-politics">Hindu-majority states</a>.

Modi fever in Motihari

<figure><img width="3600" height="2100" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109181156/636be9bb9c7e80680e0878d8jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>The four-member Chinese delegation after landing in Kathmandu on Sunday. Photo: RSS</figcaption></figure>The arrival of a senior Chinese Communist Party (CCP) official in Kathmandu on Sunday, just as the ruling Nepal Communist Party is on the verge of a formal split, has underlined Beijing’s interest in keeping its fraternal party together. The four-member delegation, clad in personal protective outfit, is led by Guo Yezhou, vice minister in the international department of the CCP. He is regarded as being the architect of the unification of the UML and the Maoist parties after their electoral alliance swept the federal polls in 2017. “The CCP appears to be worried that the NCP is headed for a split, and Beijing thinks that if the party splits, India will increase its influence in Nepal,” an NCP source told Nepali Times. “By sending Guo Yezhou to Kathmandu, China is also signalling how worried it is about the political instability in Nepal.” Guo Yezhou had come to Nepal three years ago after the UML and the Maoists signed a 7-point agreement to forge an electoral alliance, and NCP sources said he had <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/from-nepali-press/China-diary,1368" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/from-nepali-press/China-diary,1368&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1609166659205000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHMTu1pBuNBNzqRFwYVPu5BZWwBxg">played a pivotal role</a> then in bringing the two parties together. <figure><img width="1328" height="792" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109181156/636be9be9c7e80680e0878d9jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Guo Yezhou, vice minister in the international department of the CCP who arrived in Kathmandu on Sunday had in 2018 greeted Pushpa Kamal Dahal in a T-shirt at Guangzhou airport. Photo: Nepali Times archive</figcaption></figure>Guo Yezhou is also the same CCP official who greeted Pushpa Kamal Dahal (pictured above) when he visited China in September 2018. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/t-shirt-diplomacy/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/t-shirt-diplomacy/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1609166659205000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHkDERti70_UusdxdYkCzpKG_V8uA">His appearance in a T-shirt to greet Dahal</a> at Guangzhou airport was seen by many at the time as a snub to Dahal, who was party co-chair and K P Oli had been prime minister for just months. Just before going to China, Dahal had returned from a visit to New Delhi where he was greeted with the kind of welcome that heads of governments on official state visits get — he had meetings with Prime Minister Modi, and a banquet in his honour. However, in China a week later, neither President Xi Jinping nor Premier Li Keqiang met Dahal. Instead it was Guo Yezhou in an airport lounge in Guangzhou. For analysts who say every move by China is symbolic, Guo’s attire was taken as a deliberate snub to Dahal.Even then, things were already turning frosty between Oli and Dahal, and New Delhi had appeared to send a message that Dahal was the PM-in-waiting, whereas Beijing wanted Oli to serve his five-year term and for the NCP to remain united. Dahal used to describe himself at the time as a “co-pilot" in the party and government.Chinese Ambassador to Nepal Hou Yanqui had tried to patch up the personal rift between Oli and Dahal that has threatened to split the party twice in 2020, however even she seemed to have given up after Oli dissolved the Lower House on 20 December. She did meet Dahal last week before his faction faction registered a no-confidence motion and claimed the party name and symbol for itself in the Election Commission.Guo Yezhou’s visit also comes amidst reports in the Indian media that Prime Minister Oli <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/pm-oli-to-india/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/pm-oli-to-india/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1609166659205000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGn3CBlA5GtWaqo2CJmoxk51sSgoA">may be visiting New Delhi next week. </a>Nepali officials have neither confirmed nor denied the report. <figure><img width="3600" height="3000" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109181156/636be9c19c7e80680e0878dajpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Guo Yezhou, senior Chinese Communist Party official arrived in Kathmandu on Sunday. Photo: RSS</figcaption></figure>The interest of Nepal’s two giant neighbours in the political crisis in Kathmandu has been heightened as embattled Prime Minister Oli fights for his political survival after the Dahal faction of the NCP is <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepals-1-party-2-central-committees-system/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepals-1-party-2-central-committees-system/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1609166659205000&amp;usg=AFQjCNH3wohjSs9H5GEa7rAtiXjt55uSNA">intensifying a campaign to unseat him.</a> For all practical purposes, the NCP is already behaving like two separate parties.There have been a flurry of visits by senior Indian and Chinese officials in the past month. On 27 November, Indian Foreign Secretary Harsh Vardhan Shringla came to Kathmandu on a fence-mending exercise, following back-to-back visits earlier by <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/indias-multi-pronged-line-to-right-nepal-ties/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/indias-multi-pronged-line-to-right-nepal-ties/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1609166659205000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGbTwcoJgMCaKJJaywqpsBUHEkG8g">Indian Army Chief Manoj Mukund </a>Naravane and top I<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/covid-19-and-the-new-great-game/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/covid-19-and-the-new-great-game/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1609166659205000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFQVVv_k_HECXZ9n6ga3eCzdj517Q">ndian intelligence chief Samant Goel.  </a>This was followed by the one-day visit to Kathmandu by Chinese Defence Minister Wei Fenghe last month during which he met PM Oli and other NCP leaders. Ambassador Yanqui appears to have signalled to Beijing that the NCP rift was too serious, and has called in party heavy lifters from Beijing.Guo Yezhou is scheduled to meet PM Oli, President Bidya Devi Bhandari as well as Dahal and his other loyalist Madhav Kumar Nepal on Monday.

India, China and Nepal's political crisis

<figure><img width="3600" height="2100" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109191124/636bf0a04b0ad905ca02f021jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>The four-member Chinese delegation after landing in Kathmandu on Sunday. Photo: RSS</figcaption></figure>The arrival of a senior Chinese Communist Party (CCP) official in Kathmandu on Sunday, just as the ruling Nepal Communist Party is on the verge of a formal split, has underlined Beijing’s interest in keeping its fraternal party together. The four-member delegation, clad in personal protective outfit, is led by Guo Yezhou, vice minister in the international department of the CCP. He is regarded as being the architect of the unification of the UML and the Maoist parties after their electoral alliance swept the federal polls in 2017. “The CCP appears to be worried that the NCP is headed for a split, and Beijing thinks that if the party splits, India will increase its influence in Nepal,” an NCP source told Nepali Times. “By sending Guo Yezhou to Kathmandu, China is also signalling how worried it is about the political instability in Nepal.” Guo Yezhou had come to Nepal three years ago after the UML and the Maoists signed a 7-point agreement to forge an electoral alliance, and NCP sources said he had <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/from-nepali-press/China-diary,1368" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/from-nepali-press/China-diary,1368&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1609166659205000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHMTu1pBuNBNzqRFwYVPu5BZWwBxg">played a pivotal role</a> then in bringing the two parties together. <figure><img width="1328" height="792" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109191124/636bf0a34b0ad905ca02f022jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Guo Yezhou, vice minister in the international department of the CCP who arrived in Kathmandu on Sunday had in 2018 greeted Pushpa Kamal Dahal in a T-shirt at Guangzhou airport. Photo: Nepali Times archive</figcaption></figure>Guo Yezhou is also the same CCP official who greeted Pushpa Kamal Dahal (pictured above) when he visited China in September 2018. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/t-shirt-diplomacy/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/t-shirt-diplomacy/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1609166659205000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHkDERti70_UusdxdYkCzpKG_V8uA">His appearance in a T-shirt to greet Dahal</a> at Guangzhou airport was seen by many at the time as a snub to Dahal, who was party co-chair and K P Oli had been prime minister for just months. Just before going to China, Dahal had returned from a visit to New Delhi where he was greeted with the kind of welcome that heads of governments on official state visits get — he had meetings with Prime Minister Modi, and a banquet in his honour. However, in China a week later, neither President Xi Jinping nor Premier Li Keqiang met Dahal. Instead it was Guo Yezhou in an airport lounge in Guangzhou. For analysts who say every move by China is symbolic, Guo’s attire was taken as a deliberate snub to Dahal.Even then, things were already turning frosty between Oli and Dahal, and New Delhi had appeared to send a message that Dahal was the PM-in-waiting, whereas Beijing wanted Oli to serve his five-year term and for the NCP to remain united. Dahal used to describe himself at the time as a “co-pilot" in the party and government.Chinese Ambassador to Nepal Hou Yanqui had tried to patch up the personal rift between Oli and Dahal that has threatened to split the party twice in 2020, however even she seemed to have given up after Oli dissolved the Lower House on 20 December. She did meet Dahal last week before his faction faction registered a no-confidence motion and claimed the party name and symbol for itself in the Election Commission.Guo Yezhou’s visit also comes amidst reports in the Indian media that Prime Minister Oli <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/pm-oli-to-india/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/pm-oli-to-india/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1609166659205000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGn3CBlA5GtWaqo2CJmoxk51sSgoA">may be visiting New Delhi next week. </a>Nepali officials have neither confirmed nor denied the report. <figure><img width="3600" height="3000" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109191124/636bf0a64b0ad905ca02f023jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Guo Yezhou, senior Chinese Communist Party official arrived in Kathmandu on Sunday. Photo: RSS</figcaption></figure>The interest of Nepal’s two giant neighbours in the political crisis in Kathmandu has been heightened as embattled Prime Minister Oli fights for his political survival after the Dahal faction of the NCP is <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepals-1-party-2-central-committees-system/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepals-1-party-2-central-committees-system/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1609166659205000&amp;usg=AFQjCNH3wohjSs9H5GEa7rAtiXjt55uSNA">intensifying a campaign to unseat him.</a> For all practical purposes, the NCP is already behaving like two separate parties.There have been a flurry of visits by senior Indian and Chinese officials in the past month. On 27 November, Indian Foreign Secretary Harsh Vardhan Shringla came to Kathmandu on a fence-mending exercise, following back-to-back visits earlier by <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/indias-multi-pronged-line-to-right-nepal-ties/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/indias-multi-pronged-line-to-right-nepal-ties/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1609166659205000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGbTwcoJgMCaKJJaywqpsBUHEkG8g">Indian Army Chief Manoj Mukund </a>Naravane and top I<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/covid-19-and-the-new-great-game/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/covid-19-and-the-new-great-game/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1609166659205000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFQVVv_k_HECXZ9n6ga3eCzdj517Q">ndian intelligence chief Samant Goel.  </a>This was followed by the one-day visit to Kathmandu by Chinese Defence Minister Wei Fenghe last month during which he met PM Oli and other NCP leaders. Ambassador Yanqui appears to have signalled to Beijing that the NCP rift was too serious, and has called in party heavy lifters from Beijing.Guo Yezhou is scheduled to meet PM Oli, President Bidya Devi Bhandari as well as Dahal and his other loyalist Madhav Kumar Nepal on Monday.

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110919118/636bed404b0ad905ca02eed3jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="720" height="480"/><figcaption>Photo: @KTnepal</figcaption></figure>Loyal readers will remember royal leaders we have covered in these pages over the past two decades. The uneasy transition to constitutional monarchy post-1990, the conflict, the <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/page/royal-massacre-Nepal-15-years-later" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">palace massacre</a> of 2001, the attempt by King Gyanendra to <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=14835#.X8c51S2B0b1" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">repeat his father’s coup</a> in 2005, and finally the <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/nepal-from-royal-to-republic,3736" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">abolition of the monarchy</a> in 2008.History keeps repeating itself in Nepal. And once again, we are coming full circle with street demonstrations in <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/saffron-surge-politics,3619" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">support of a return to monarchy and a Hindu state</a>.It is significant that the rallies are happening in the run-up to the 60th anniversary of King Mahendra’s putsch against Nepal’s first democratically elected government led by Prime Minister B P Koirala on 15 December 1960.The current series of protests began in Butwal last month, and moved around the country with a rally in Kathmandu on Monday. They were organised by disparate groups, with tacit support from the Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP).The RPP had not, till now, openly joined the demonstrations. That would have been odd because the demonstrators had called for an end to federalism, and the RPP has one seat in the Federal Parliament. But it has now asked party members to show up for rallies planned for 4 and 5 December in Hetauda and Jhapa, which will see addresses by <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/interview/Advantage,277" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">RPP leaders like Kamal Thapa</a>, Prakash C Lohani and Pashupati Shumsher Rana.There is speculation about why royalists and the Hindu-right have chosen this particular time for a show of force. Obviously, they see an opening in the political space – the ruling Nepal Communist Party (NCP) is <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/outside-looking-in/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">mired in endless infighting</a>, and the main opposition Nepali Congress is leaderless and rudderless.The RPP emerged as the fourth-largest party after the UML, NC and the Maoists in the 2013 Constituent Assembly election, and the party leaders quite rightly seem to surmise that since the other parties have had their chance in government multiple times and squandered their mandate, their time has come.RPP rallies this past month have been well-attended, even though the public is not spontaneously joining in on the flag-waving in large numbers, as the organisers claim. Even so, the crowds represent disillusionment with the past two-and-half years of NCP misrule, factionalism, corruption and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-ruling-party-feud-affecting-covid-19-response/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">poor management of the Covid-19 crisis</a>.The main demands of the demonstrators have been the restoration of the monarchy, and scrapping provisions in the 2015 Constitution that turned Nepal into a federal, <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=3644#.X8c5zi2B0b0" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">secular republic</a>. Past public opinion polls by this paper have shown that while there is not much mass support for a re-thronement of King Gyanendra, there is a sizeable component of the population that is for Nepal becoming a Hindu state again.In a way, the RPP is testing the waters to see if a <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/kundadixit/2017/03/22/southerly-wind/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Hindu monarchy</a> can be a viable electoral plank for the next federal and local elections in 2022. Enthused by the unexpected numbers at rallies, the party is now openly leading a street campaign to stoke populist passions at a time when the NCP and NC are both distracted by their internal squabbles. The RPP believes it can end the current anarchy with a stable monarchy.It’s not that the RPP is not faction-ridden like the rest, it has had frequent splits and reunifications over the past 10 years. There has been tension between those who want Nepal to only become a Hindu state but are not as enthusiastic about the monarchy, and others who want both.In September, this led Sunil Thapa, son of five-time Prime Minister Surya Bahadur Thapa, to defect from the RPP to the NC. RPP leader Kamal Thapa has himself been lukewarm towards monarchy, but now favours a ceremonial or constitutional kingship.The other overarching issue is disenchantment with democracy itself, and the argument that a visionary charismatic leader is better than the current cabal under a western-style parliamentary system. Lending force to this argument is the erosion of democratic values under <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/guest-editorial/modi-india-politics,872" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Prime Minister Modi in India</a>, as well as China’s rising economic and political clout. This coincides with the weakening of the West, which had till recently been giving powerful backing for democracy, press freedom, human rights and secularism.Whatever happens in India has a gravitational pull in Nepal, and the BJP’s Hindu-right ideology could be another factor that has emboldened the RPP. Some rally organisers in Nepal are groups that seem to be offshoots of <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/from-nepali-press/After-Adityanath,3617" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Hindutva elements across the border</a>. However, this convergence has its limits since at some point India’s Hindu juggernaut would collide with RPP’s ultra-nationalist platform.Even as the ruling NCP’s infighting gets more heated, however, the ruling party may be saved from a split because of the RPP’s activism. There is nothing like a common outside enemy to unite a party. Unwittingly, Kamal Thapa may be giving his old coalition colleague K P Oli some breathing space.

Nepal party reincarnating Hindu monarchy

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109181140/636be61e9c7e80680e08778ajpeg.jpg" alt="" width="720" height="480"/><figcaption>Photo: @KTnepal</figcaption></figure>Loyal readers will remember royal leaders we have covered in these pages over the past two decades. The uneasy transition to constitutional monarchy post-1990, the conflict, the <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/page/royal-massacre-Nepal-15-years-later" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">palace massacre</a> of 2001, the attempt by King Gyanendra to <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=14835#.X8c51S2B0b1" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">repeat his father’s coup</a> in 2005, and finally the <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/nepal-from-royal-to-republic,3736" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">abolition of the monarchy</a> in 2008.History keeps repeating itself in Nepal. And once again, we are coming full circle with street demonstrations in <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/saffron-surge-politics,3619" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">support of a return to monarchy and a Hindu state</a>.It is significant that the rallies are happening in the run-up to the 60th anniversary of King Mahendra’s putsch against Nepal’s first democratically elected government led by Prime Minister B P Koirala on 15 December 1960.The current series of protests began in Butwal last month, and moved around the country with a rally in Kathmandu on Monday. They were organised by disparate groups, with tacit support from the Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP).The RPP had not, till now, openly joined the demonstrations. That would have been odd because the demonstrators had called for an end to federalism, and the RPP has one seat in the Federal Parliament. But it has now asked party members to show up for rallies planned for 4 and 5 December in Hetauda and Jhapa, which will see addresses by <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/interview/Advantage,277" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">RPP leaders like Kamal Thapa</a>, Prakash C Lohani and Pashupati Shumsher Rana.There is speculation about why royalists and the Hindu-right have chosen this particular time for a show of force. Obviously, they see an opening in the political space – the ruling Nepal Communist Party (NCP) is <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/outside-looking-in/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">mired in endless infighting</a>, and the main opposition Nepali Congress is leaderless and rudderless.The RPP emerged as the fourth-largest party after the UML, NC and the Maoists in the 2013 Constituent Assembly election, and the party leaders quite rightly seem to surmise that since the other parties have had their chance in government multiple times and squandered their mandate, their time has come.RPP rallies this past month have been well-attended, even though the public is not spontaneously joining in on the flag-waving in large numbers, as the organisers claim. Even so, the crowds represent disillusionment with the past two-and-half years of NCP misrule, factionalism, corruption and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-ruling-party-feud-affecting-covid-19-response/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">poor management of the Covid-19 crisis</a>.The main demands of the demonstrators have been the restoration of the monarchy, and scrapping provisions in the 2015 Constitution that turned Nepal into a federal, <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=3644#.X8c5zi2B0b0" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">secular republic</a>. Past public opinion polls by this paper have shown that while there is not much mass support for a re-thronement of King Gyanendra, there is a sizeable component of the population that is for Nepal becoming a Hindu state again.In a way, the RPP is testing the waters to see if a <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/kundadixit/2017/03/22/southerly-wind/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Hindu monarchy</a> can be a viable electoral plank for the next federal and local elections in 2022. Enthused by the unexpected numbers at rallies, the party is now openly leading a street campaign to stoke populist passions at a time when the NCP and NC are both distracted by their internal squabbles. The RPP believes it can end the current anarchy with a stable monarchy.It’s not that the RPP is not faction-ridden like the rest, it has had frequent splits and reunifications over the past 10 years. There has been tension between those who want Nepal to only become a Hindu state but are not as enthusiastic about the monarchy, and others who want both.In September, this led Sunil Thapa, son of five-time Prime Minister Surya Bahadur Thapa, to defect from the RPP to the NC. RPP leader Kamal Thapa has himself been lukewarm towards monarchy, but now favours a ceremonial or constitutional kingship.The other overarching issue is disenchantment with democracy itself, and the argument that a visionary charismatic leader is better than the current cabal under a western-style parliamentary system. Lending force to this argument is the erosion of democratic values under <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/guest-editorial/modi-india-politics,872" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Prime Minister Modi in India</a>, as well as China’s rising economic and political clout. This coincides with the weakening of the West, which had till recently been giving powerful backing for democracy, press freedom, human rights and secularism.Whatever happens in India has a gravitational pull in Nepal, and the BJP’s Hindu-right ideology could be another factor that has emboldened the RPP. Some rally organisers in Nepal are groups that seem to be offshoots of <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/from-nepali-press/After-Adityanath,3617" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Hindutva elements across the border</a>. However, this convergence has its limits since at some point India’s Hindu juggernaut would collide with RPP’s ultra-nationalist platform.Even as the ruling NCP’s infighting gets more heated, however, the ruling party may be saved from a split because of the RPP’s activism. There is nothing like a common outside enemy to unite a party. Unwittingly, Kamal Thapa may be giving his old coalition colleague K P Oli some breathing space.

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110914114/636ba5bf9c7e80680e0736e1jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000"/><figcaption>Illustration: BHANU BHATTARAI</figcaption></figure>The country is being battered by a coronavirus surge and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepals-virus-vortex/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">hospitals are running out of beds</a> for the seriously sick. The economic fallout of the lockdown is going to be catastrophic. Yet, Nepal’s Prime Minister K P Oli is obsessed about Lord Ram.He stirred a hornet’s nest last month by claiming that <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/k-p-oli-rams-it-home/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Ram was born not in Ayodhya</a>, which is in India, but in Ayodhyapuri, which is in Chitwan’s Madi Municipality.Nepal’s prime minister is adept at political calculus, and he has made it a habit of distracting attention from the real woes of Nepalis with ultra-nationalism, which in Nepal means constant India-baiting. It got him elected in 2017, and because of New Delhi’s mis-steps, it has worked pretty well.However, this time Oli is concocting an explosive experiment by mixing religion with nationalism. And the irony seems to be lost on the prime Communist proponent of secularism to make a mythical god his main agenda.On 7 August, the Ward chair of Madi Municipality Shivahari Subedi got a call on his mobile from Kathmandu. It was the Prime Minister. Subedi was asked to urgently head up to Kathmandu with his mayor.At the meeting in Baluwatar, the prime minister instructed them to plan a shrine at Ayodhyapuri to honour Ram, Laxman and Sita. They were told to have it ready for him to lay the foundation stone on Ram Nawami in April next year. He reportedly told them: “Don’t worry about money, just get it done.”It is significant that Oli’s call to Madi happened the day after just 150km away in Ayodhya, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi<a href="https://www.livemint.com/news/india/ayodhya-ram-mandir-bhumi-pujan-live-updates-narendra-modi-yogi-adityanath-babri-masjid-latest-news-11596601286184.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"> laid a 40kg foundation stone</a> made of silver for a temple dedicated to Lord Ram at the base of a 16th century mosque razed by Hindu extremists in 1992. It set off religious violence in India that claimed 2,000 lives, and have been hugely divisive since.Nepal’s prime minister is trying to do a Modi in Madi. But why would he want to tread on that religious and political minefield?Depending who you speak to, Oli is either a master tactician or a dangerously delusional leader. In May, when a <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-ruling-party-on-verge-of-split/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">mutiny was brewing</a> led by party co-chair Pushpa Kamal Dahal, a lucky diversion created by India’s <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/territorialism/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">inauguration of the Lipu Lekh</a> road saved Oli. The prime minister prolonged that crisis, and got multi-partisan support for a Constitution amendment to alter Nepal’s own official map. Later, when party rivals once more <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-pm-oli-under-pressure-to-resign/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">ganged up</a>, he accused them publicly of being puppets of Indian spooks. And now, when he faces another threat in the party secretariat, he <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/k-p-oli-rams-it-home/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">invokes Ram</a>.In one stroke, Oli extended his confrontation with the Indian state to also antagonise many Indians. Within Nepal, too, he faced criticism and ridicule for his Ayodhya comments. Many said he had gone too far, and for a while it looked like Oli was listening. But by expediting plans to build a shrine in Ayodhyapuri, we know he is dead serious.Oli is trying to blunt the challenge from within his fractious NCP. Madi is also a stronghold of party rival Dahal, and Oli may be castling on the political chessboard. He may also have his sights on the 2022 election, and by trying to be more Hindu than the Shankaracharya, he could be trying to take the wind out of the sails of the royalist RPP, or even the Nepali Congress, who are both using religion. This could be why criticism of Oli’s Ram move is muted within the NCP.For now, the goal seems to be to distract attention away from the failure to manage the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as its economic fallout. The farce is that a supposedly communist leader and avowed secularist is weaponising the Ramayana for political ends.

Opium of the masters

<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109101140/636b75829c7e80680e0623f2jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2048" height="1365"/>Nepal’s Communist Party leaders must take note of two events that unfolded in India this week: <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-south-asia-51638345" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the roaring welcome to US President Donald Trump</a> and the ongoing communal riots in Delhi’s northeastern suburb.That the Narendra Modi government was able to put up a great two-day show to woo Trump, who repeatedly praised Modi and said “America loves India” has been somewhat overshadowed by the violence that has claimed over 20 lives in Delhi.The two events depict contrasting pictures: one of a new emerging India eager to engage with superpowers, even taking lead in issues of international concern. And the other of an India engulfed in violence between some Hindus and Muslims. The ruling BJP and Modi, supported by the right-wing groups like RSS and VHP, find themselves in the vortex of this violence.Trump reached India on Monday and along with Modi addressed the ‘Namaste Trump’ rally in Ahmedabad’s Motera Stadium, the largest cricket stadium in the world, attended by over 100,000 people. The two presented their visions for the next phase of Indo-US strategic partnership.Although the much-awaited trade deal did not happen, the two sides pulled together a $3billion military deal, sought commitments to fight terrorism, narco-terrorism and organised crime and signed three MoUs in the health and oil sectors. Trump even discussed the importance of a secure 5G network in India, ahead of trials involving China’s Huawei which he said must be “a tool for freedom, progress, prosperity, not a conduit for suppression and censorship”.Important for Nepal to note is their dialogue in security cooperation. Besides reiterating that the two countries will work to combat “radical Islamic terrorism” which will dearly affect the functioning of SAARC, Trump praised the military cooperation and said that the US and India, along with Japan and Australia, should work together for security of the Indo-Pacific region as the Quad (Quadrilateral Security Dialogue) grouping.The diplomatic and military arrangements of the Quad are widely viewed as a response to the rapidly increasing economic and military power of China in the region. Sandwiched and landlocked between India and China, Nepal will have to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-now-has-to-balance-not-just-india-and-china-but-also-the-west/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">balance its relations between China and a US-backed India</a>.As it is, a $500 million US-funded <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/mcc-row-damages-nepals-credibility/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Millennium Challenge Corporation</a> (MCC) deal to improve Nepal’s connectivity <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/a-millennium-challenge/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">is in limbo</a> because of opposition from a faction of the ruling Communist Party that sees it as a part of the American Indo-Pacific Strategy. Parliamentary ratification of the project has been delayed.The MCC is viewed with much interest by India’s civil society and academia lately, and is seen as a direct counter to China’s Belt Road Initiative (BRI). Sections of the Nepali establishment views India as an obstructionist power, and are trying to develop closer ties with China.But India is finding more grounds of convergence with the US, which now views South Asia as a vital part of its <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/between-two-oceans/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Indo-Pacific Strategy</a>. Smaller countries in India’s periphery are bound to be trapped in this rivalry. With pressing domestic concerns at home over opposition to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/indian-nepalis-alarmed-by-citizenship-amendment-bill/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the Constitution Amendment Act (CAA) India </a>may play silent and quiet diplomacy leaving the US and China to compete for influence in India’s neighborhood.Trump and Modi are said to have discussed developments in South Asia at length during this visit, meaning they will collaborate and closely consult each other on regional matters. Nepal must gear up to deal with a more forceful America in the near future even when it is already grappling with <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/what-is-xi-jinpings-big-surprise/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a dominant China</a>.It is in India’s advantage if the US temporarily fills the vacuum in Nepal, which New Delhi feels is its traditional sphere of influence. So, the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/a-yam-between-3-boulders/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">foreign policy challenge for Nepal</a> will not be to balance between India and China so much anymore, but getting into meaningful dialogue with China and the US to protect its national interest.India considers the US as its ‘natural ally’. The Modi-Trump equation seen in Gujarat and Delhi this week speaks volumes of their friendship and desire to foster closer ties between the world’s oldest and largest democracies. Even in midst of communal riots in Delhi, Trump stated at a press conference “it is up to India” to deal with the CAA matter, quickly adding that Modi is committed to “religious freedom in India.”Most analysts conclude that if Trump is re-elected in November elections, India’s relations with the United States could be further strengthened.The author is a Nepali journalist and researcher based in New Delhi.

The India, US, Nepal, China quadrangle

<figure><img width="1445" height="2000" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108181144/636a95c69c7e80680e05dc29jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Illustration: DIWAKAR CHETTRI</figcaption></figure>Nothing unites Nepalis more than a dispute with India. So, when India issued its new official map this month putting the <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=1680#.Xc0XfNUzbIU">east bank of the Kali River</a> that Nepal claims squarely within its own territory, all hell broke loose in Kathmandu.The brouhaha could not have come at a better time for Prime Minister KP Oli. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/prime-ministers-health-condition-under-wraps/">In failing health</a>, with falling public support and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/dangerous-driving/">facing serious challenges from within his own party</a>, the dispute with India united politicians across the political spectrum. It also allowed Oli, who has always used nationalism as a political plank, to send the message that he is standing up to India.Even the opposition Nepali Congress, which had been hesitant to speak against India during the <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/thebrief/2015/09/25/unofficial-blockade/">2015 Blockade</a>, this time mobilised its students to protest outside the Indian Embassy. Student unions in some Tarai towns also staged anti-India protests.Read also:<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/territorialism/">Territorialism</a>, Editorial<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=11208#.Xc0Xg9UzbIU">What India wants from Nepal,</a> Rajendra DahalBut it is from his own NCP that Oli faces the greatest challenge, and he has been scrambling to put a trusted caretaker team in place ahead of a planned trip to the United States. Baluwatar insiders say <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/in-wait-and-wait-mode/">Oli may be away for at least two months if he needs a new kidney.</a>Last week in a surprise move, Oli got his team of a dozen advisers to resign en masse. Although it looks like some of them (including his foreign policy and political advisers) will be reinstated after pressure from senior party leaders, the move suggests that the Prime Minister is working on a major overhaul in case he needs to be away longer.On Wednesday, Oli met his main critic within the NCP, former Prime Minister Madhav Kumar Nepal, for the first time since August, when they had an angry exchange in Baluwatar. Relations between the two have not been good since Oli <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/one-body-two-heads/">out-manoeuvred Nepal</a> at the UML party convention four years ago. Nepal is said to have been miffed at Oli’s surprise appointment of new provincial governors.      Read Also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/four-year-itch/">Four-year itch,</a> EditorialSources said the two had a “heart-to-heart talk with self-reflection”, with Oli promising to consult his party colleagues more closely. It is very likely the PM will be looking to induct Nepal loyalists to his reshuffled cabinet, and may have asked Nepal for recommendations. Oli also wants to finalise selection of the 120-member politburo before he goes away, and for this may need Nepal’s help to outflank Pushpa Kamal Dahal.Dahal, for his part, has been biding his time knowing that sooner or later he will be prime minister. His reaction to the border dispute with India has been remarkably lukewarm, calling for a “diplomatic settlement” and the surprising suggestion that Nepal should not internationalise the issue.Prime Minister Oli appears to be preparing for a protracted absence from Kathmandu during which time he does not want Dahal to be calling all the shots.Read Also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/own-worst-enemy/">Nepal PM is his own worst enemy</a>, Editorial

Power plays

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108141156/636a604d9c7e80680e056e72jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1400" height="1011"/><figcaption>Illustration: Diwakar Chettri</figcaption></figure>The Nepal-China agreements on trade, economy, connectivity and security signed during Chinese President Xi Jinping’s state visit last week could mark the beginning of the end of Nepal being in India’s ‘sphere of influence’. If that happens, the strategic shock waves will be felt <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/business/squeezed-in-the-himalaya,3824">beyond Nepal’s borders</a>.The Himalayan mountains have historically been a barrier between Nepal and China, but <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/which-way-will-the-tibet-nepal-railway-go/">railways, roads and tunnels</a> are about to change that. In the battle <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/trilateral-trains/">between geography and technology</a>, Nepal will fall into the Chinese embrace if technology wins. If geography remains a factor however, India can continue to wield political, strategic and geopolitical influence on Nepal. The idea of political geography will come into play around the <a href="https://nepalitimes.atavist.com/the-tibet-train">trilateral relations between China, India and Nepal</a>.Xi’s trip to Kathmandu immediately after his informal summit with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi was geo-strategically nuanced. It showed the confidence China exudes over South Asia vis-à-vis India, and the difference in national comprehensive power between the two strategic rivals says it all: China is far more powerful than India.Read Also:<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/what-is-xi-jinpings-big-surprise/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">What is Xi Jinping’s ‘Big Surprise’?,</a>Saindra Rai and Irtika Bajracharya<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="http://President Xi in Kathmandu" target="_blank" rel="noopener">President Xi in Kathmandu</a>, Nepali Times Nepal has to make a choice, and it seems to have made it. Upgrading Nepal-China bilateral relations from a ‘comprehensive partnership’ to a ‘strategic partnership’ was a masterstroke of Chinese diplomacy. If Nepal has drifted toward China or is increasingly doing so, India’s own Nepal policy is to blame.The top priority of small countries is always security and survival. Their foreign policy behaviour is a response to the possible threat from a bigger neighbour. The fears do not necessarily have to be real, they could be perceived. In geopolitics, perception and speculation determine a state’s response to the geopolitical environment. When small states are cornered, they take risks that have implications for relations with other countries, especially bigger neighbours.The 18 agreements and two letters of exchange China and Nepal inked in Kathmandu last weekend are ambitious and challenging. The timing was also interesting: right after Xi’s India trip and when China-India ties are strained over the Kashmir issue. China’s message to India is that the traditional concept of ‘spheres of influence’ is losing its relevance in geopolitics. And that Nepal cannot be construed a permanent ‘strategic backyard’ of India — it has to belong to whoever wins the power game.The China and Nepal developments are a pointer to what is going to happen in South Asian geopolitics as China continues to rise and India pushes back its inroads into the region. These are not only signposts, there are lessons here. India will have to learn why it is detrimental to its own interest to push a smaller neighbour too much. Similarly, Nepal should ponder whether it is wise to move too far away from India without preparation.An Indian scholar once said to this commentator about Nepal: “If India has learnt one thing, it is not to interfere.” A Nepali scholar said: “Post 2015, Nepal has learnt the danger of depending on one neighbour too much”. It is important to strike a balance to ensure a working China-Nepal-India relationship. This will determine the geopolitical environment of the Himalayan sphere in years to come.For India, the Nepal-China deal is evidence of the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/what-china-really-wants/">changing strategic and geopolitical architecture</a> of its neighborhood. If China-India-Nepal relations are not managed properly, the ramifications will spill beyond their borders. The interests of political giants do not just diverge, they also converge in places, countries and ideas that matter to their national, regional and global ambitions.We cannot discount the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-now-has-to-balance-not-just-india-and-china-but-also-the-west/">interest of other powers, the United States for instance</a>, in the Himalayan dynamic. With Nepal being a candidate for <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/a-yam-between-3-boulders/">the Indo-Pacific strategy</a>, Washington’s reaction to the new developments will be worth following. Nepal, for its part, should not forget that when its political market is open to too many players, it could lose control.Read Also: <a style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em; background-color: #ffffff; outline: 0px;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/yam-between-3-boulders/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">YAM BETWEEN 3 BOULDERS</a>, EditorialWhen push comes to shove, Nepal will have to decide based on <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/hitching-our-wagon/">its own national interest</a>. ‘Nations do not have permanent friends and foes, but only permanent interests’ is still relevant in inter-state relations, especially for smaller countries like Nepal.Nepal’s domestic politics is key to its response to Sino-Indian overtures, and it will have huge implications for the implementation of the deals struck with China. And the way Nepal puts its own house in order and manages its domestic political issues will determine India’s response to the China-Nepal deal. An indifferent or no reaction from New Delhi to China-Nepal bilateral developments do not mean it is not interested. It is in ‘wait and see’ mode, and any unmanageable domestic political fissure in Nepal can wreck the China-Nepal deal.The growing Chinese footprint in Nepal is proof that Beijing is already the chief player in South Asian geopolitics. Its <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/what-china-really-wants/">Belt and Road Initiative</a> is gaining momentum in Nepal and the region despite India’s resistance and non-membership in it. But the future of the recent China-Nepal agreements will depend on Nepal’s foreign policy dexterity and to some extent, on the character of Sino-Indian relations henceforth.China has become a reality in South Asia. Ignoring that fact would be a mistake.Passang Dorji, PhD, is a member of Bhutan’s Parliament, and a scholar on Bhutan and Nepal relations with China and India. The views in this article are his own.FeedbackThis article by Passang Dorji, a relatively distant observer in Bhutan, lacks in sufficient depth in the understanding of the dynamics that is being reshaped positively in recent years between Nepal and India due seemingly paradoxically to the fact of the Himalayan nation moving closer to China. President Xi's recent visit to Nepal has only lent more vigour and momentum to that dynamics. In contrast to the days when Nepal depended on the southern neighbour for most of its needs, India always balked, giving one the impression that sadistic India enjoyed punishing landlocked Nepal. However, now that Nepal chose to move much closer to China post-2015 blockade, India too is now much more cooperative and considerate with Nepal with, for example, the earlier-than-scheduled completion of the Indo-Nepal petroleum pipeline, something that was always needed for Nepal. The author's argument about mounting challenges for Nepal in managing in managing its relations with  India under the shadow of China's deepening presence and influence in Nepal remains hypothetical at best.Bihari Krishna Shrestha

Political geography of India-Nepal-China ties

The daily 10-hour curfew at Tribhuvan International Airport from 8 November that will last five months has affected tourism during Nepal’s peak season, with some hotels and trekking agencies here reporting cancellations into spring next year. The reduced hours at Nepal’s main aviation gateway till 31 March means that a third of all flights have been cut. This has also caused ticket prices to surge by up to eight times of normal fares. For example a Kathmandu-Delhi ticket that used to cost Rs12,000 is now listed at Rs50,000, and even then seats are not available.&nbsp; “Especially if they are here to trek, change in flight dates can cause tourists to miss their connections,” says Jagan Timilsina, who runs a trail running and outdoor education business. &nbsp; Pokhara is feeling the brunt as hotels report last-minute cancellations for November because of flight disorders. Some hoteliers also say although there have been some cancelled trips, most itineraries have been rescheduled.&nbsp; Hari Prasad Sharma Gaire of the local chapter of the Hotel Association of Nepal says the Kathmandu airport closure should have been timed for the off-season. He told us: “Starting construction during the peak tourist season was a mistake and will cause the tourism industry to lose a lot of business. The upgrade could have been spread out over a longer time but closed for fewer hours at night so that disruption was minimal.”&nbsp; Nearly a third of the 1.2 million tourists who visit Nepal annually come to Pokhara, which is also the gateway to Mustang, the Annapurna treks and pilgrimage tourism to Muktinath. Located by scenic lakes with a range of adventure sports like hot air ballooning, paragliding, canyoning, bungee and ziplines, Pokhara is also popular among diaspora Nepalis. “Besides its own attractions, Pokhara is really the hub for central Nepal, and we have been trying to get visitors to extend their stay here,” says Timilsina, who started out as a trekking porter and rose up the ranks to be an expedition guide and entrepreneur. &nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2024111603114_0e071ce63ea9b0a9a7ee76f8c3cea0ff08c6767c41dd09f6bc4413d2db067a60.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="2024111603114_0e071ce63ea9b0a9a7ee76f8c3cea0ff08c6767c41dd09f6bc4413d2db067a60" data-rendition-name="original" width="3500" height="2333" loading="lazy" alt="Pokhara's tourism woes NT"> <figcaption>Tourist arrivals in Pokhara have slumped since the disruptions at Kathmandu airport due to upgrading work. Photo: KRISHNA MANI BARAL/NEPALI TIMES ARCHIVE</figcaption> </figure>  Even without the Kathmandu airport closure affecting tourist arrivals, Pokhara was already suffering from a decline due to many factors like the poor state of the Prithvi Highway, the shortage of luxury accommodation for high-end tourists, and the reluctance of international airlines to start direct flights to Pokhara despite an expensive new airport that was inaugurated two years ago.&nbsp; “There was a lot of initial excitement on the construction of the international airport,” says Timilsina, “but it hasn’t delivered as expected due to politics. People have invested in nearby businesses, and have faced losses.” India has blocked direct flights from its cities to Pokhara because the facility was built by a Chinese company. Although tourists and pilgrims from India hit record levels this year, the poor state of the highways and the Indian bus accident on the highway to Kathmandu in July that killed 27 pilgrims from Maharashtra state dampened arrival figures. Gaire says, “While tourist arrivals to Pokhara are now approaching pre-Covid levels, we haven’t seen the improvement we were expecting. We need a better marketing strategy. What are our embassies abroad doing?”&nbsp; Indeed, Pokhara used to be a favourite destination for Chinese tourists. There was a boom in arrivals from China before Covid, especially after a popular Chinese tv serial was shot on location here. But arrivals from China have not really recovered since the pandemic because of the economic slowdown there. Promoting Pokhara airport to handle direct flights from Chengdu or Kunming could revive Chinese arrivals.&nbsp; Nepal’s Civil Aviation Authority (CAAN) has used the Kathmandu airport closure as an excuse to arm-twist international airlines to start flying to Bhairawa, which has barely been in operation for two years since it was inaugurated. So far, Fly Dubai, Thai AirAsia, Jazeera and Qatar are flying to Bhairawa, but most use it as a hop before flying on to Kathmandu, which does not reduce congestion at Kathmandu.&nbsp; An ideal situation could have been to get Pokhara to run to full capacity while Kathmandu is partially out of action. Pokhara entrepreneurs are puzzled why the CAAN and the national government have not taken more interest in promoting Pokhara as an alternative to reduce the congestion in Kathmandu. Nepal’s football team that was flying to Dushanbe this week couldn’t get tickets via Delhi, and took a domestic flight to Bhadrapur, crossed over to Bagdogra and flew on to Delhi to catch their flight to Tajikistan.

Pokhara’s tourism woes

An excerpt of a conversation between an anthropologist and linguist Mark Turin, PhD and Lava Deo Awasthi, PhD, the first Chairperson of the Language Commission of Nepal. Nepali Times: What is the role of Nepal’s Language Commission and when was it formed? Lava Deo Awasthi: The Constitution of Nepal (2015) created a Language Commission (LC) with the following four core mandates: (a) to develop eligibility criteria for gaining status as an official language and offer recommendations to the Government of Nepal about the official language(s) in each province; (b) to offer recommendations to the Government about measures to be taken for the conservation, promotion, and development of languages; (c) to suggest possible ways of using mother tongues in education by assessing their stage of development; and, (d) to conduct studies, carry out research and perform monitoring functions about the response to the constitutional provisions for the federalisation of languages in Nepal. The Commission was founded in 2016 and I was appointed as the Chairperson of the Commission in September of the same year by the Cabinet of Ministers. What in your own professional and educational background helped to prepare you for the role? I have worked with the Government of Nepal for about 30 years, alongside holding teaching appointments at universities in Nepal. Prior to assuming the role of the Chairperson of the Commission, I served as permanent Secretary to the Government of Nepal and worked as the Chief Administrator of the Central Development Region. I was appointed as Director General of the Department of Education and completed my assignments as Joint Secretary at the Planning, Monitoring and Educational Administration Divisions of the Ministry of Education.&nbsp; In addition, I have taught courses as a visiting professor at Tribhuvan University and Kathmandu University for more than three decades. Later, I also started supervising MPhil and PhD students at the Far Western University in Mahendranagar, Kanchanpur. My PhD project from the Danish University of Education was dedicated to making sense of Nepal’s social construct and commitment to multilingualism, exploring the persistence of monolingual school practices in the face of constitutional promises and state commitments to multilingualism. I conducted a survey of Nepal’s languages and carried out a qualitative study of the Tharu language in the district of Bardia. I analysed language policy statements and explored classroom pedagogies in schools. I documented how teachers showed a tendency to resist change and maintain the status quo because they were not consulted when new educational language policies were introduced. Teachers also exhibited a deeply-held adherence to the Gurukul education system which appears to have been harnessed as a way to resist newer pedagogical ideologies imported from the West. Recognising how engrained these rich traditions of knowledge transmission are, I wanted to know how students’ engagement in the learning process appeared to have dwindled, creating a gap between children’s home languages and the language(s) of the school. Whilst statutory provisions for education in the mother tongue were oriented towards promotion, classroom pedagogies remained resolutely monolingual and exclusionary. The result was that multilingual education policies that had been introduced in Nepal did not result in meaningful changes in classroom practices. My research was also a reflection of childhood traumas I had experienced at the earliest stage of formal education. My home language, Baitadeli, has a strong oral tradition and no written literature. English is my fifth language in terms of exposure and competence, and my home district of Baitadi is well-known for its loyalty to the local language. I had to drop out of school after completing my sixth grade. Staying at home, I received much attention from my family and had much greater exposure to my native language, culture and environment. My overall impression is that dropping out of school had a surprisingly positive impact on my life. The opportunity offered a surprising dividend for me as I gained mastery in my mother tongue and received extensive exposure to folk literature and Indigenous knowledge and survival skills, cultivating my interest in language, culture, literature and local cosmologies.&nbsp; Now that I reflect on it, I appreciate how language has always played a key role in my life. I grew up in a multilingual environment: brought up with Baitadeli, Hindi, Sanskrit, Nepali and English. Language played a major part in my decision to leave school and my later success is closely linked to my competence in several languages. It was rewarding to be at home with my family as I deepened my understanding of native language and culture, which in turn helped me to harness and refine my art of living. Languages matter so much to me because they are both software and hardware. Later, when I was in secondary school, I realised that my command of my home language contributed significantly to enhancing my Nepali and English. I used my mother tongue as a form of linguistic capital to strengthen my competence in both English and Nepali.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2024111811110_5400ba54792bf9e4854e1c1effde8bf09804e99647f23513700b450cc49adc4a.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="2024111811110_5400ba54792bf9e4854e1c1effde8bf09804e99647f23513700b450cc49adc4a" data-rendition-name="original" width="1000" height="1500" loading="lazy" alt="Dr Lava Deo Awasthi"> </figure>  In your term as the Commission’s first Chairperson, what were your strategic goals and objectives? My first strategic goal was to create an environment conducive to implementing the provisions of the Constitution of Nepal in relation to language. My priority was to prepare a detailed action plan for my six-year tenure in consultation with language stakeholders, including language experts, professionals, activists, Indigenous community members and representatives of relevant national and local-level institutions. The Commission formed a body of high-level advisors to ensure that the Chairperson’s work was well-informed and credible. The advisors to the committee had highly visible professional and social reputations in Nepal and had much experience in the field of language conservation, promotion, research and development. Another strategy we adopted was to establish close institutional linkages with federal, provincial, and local level governments for collecting opinions and disseminating information widely.&nbsp; What critical issues did you have to consider while discharging your duty? When Nepal’s new Constitution was drafted, a number of concerns could not be adequately addressed. These related to the conservation of languages, the recognition of official languages at the provincial level, and the use of mother tongues at federal, provincial, and local levels. These unresolved issues and matters pertaining to the federalizsation of Nepal’s languages were passed on to the Language Commission to address and resolve.&nbsp; Regarding the recommendations for official languages, a five-year timeline had been set by the Constitution. With great effort, we succeeded in having all provinces agree to recognise their official languages as per the recommendations of the Commission.&nbsp; What were your greatest achievements during your term? One of the greatest achievements was that we succeeded in setting a language agenda at all levels. Nepal’s language communities and other stakeholders expressed the view that this was the first time their languages were recognised and their voices heard by the state. People participated in debates and discussed issues relating to language that in all likelihood had never before happened in their lifetimes, at least not in ways that were supported by the state. We encouraged people to speak in their own language(s) and provided translators during plenary sessions and group discussions. Another major achievement was developing criteria for the status planning of languages at federal, provincial, and local levels, and to recommend 11 province-level official languages, in addition to the Nepali language. Similarly, a notable achievement was recognising Indigenous languages spoken by smaller communities, all of whom faced ongoing marginalisation and high levels of endangerment. The Commission identified 9 new languages that had not been reported in the 2011 census, and provided a framework for recognising official languages within a municipality. The commission emphasised the need for documentation and digitisation of languages for developing corpora and archives at national and sub-national levels.&nbsp; Languages of historical importance as well as classical languages were given recognition for their protection, growth, and development. Recommendations were made for the conservation, promotion and development of Nepal’s marginalised languages that are threatened by majority languages and for those languages that hold particular power at local and global levels. Recommendations were also made for how best to safeguard Nepal’s languages from the ever-growing spread of English and other powerful, globalising languages.&nbsp; A further important aspect of the Commission’s work was to emphasise mother tongue medium instruction in schools across the nation. Recognising the role of language in children’s cognitive, socio-emotional and academic development, the Commission suggested strategies for linking schools with ward-level language clusters for use in the classroom. The importance of nurturing and respecting a child’s first language was reiterated in the Commission’s recommendations for children’s learning and all-round development. By the end of my term, a remarkable change could be observed in terms of building trust within and across Nepal’s diverse language communities. A network of language groups and stakeholders across the country proved to be a powerful way of bringing all language communities under one roof for a collective review of and response to the process of federalising language policy. The many language stakeholders across Nepal appreciated the opportunity to work within a coordinated framework, and—feeling empowered by this—seemed genuinely enthusiastic about the initiatives taken by the Commission.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2024111811114_b45297fdd2fedf17bdb6313e495a1062c0d87f1a19fa5349f871f220b75f93ab.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="2024111811114_b45297fdd2fedf17bdb6313e495a1062c0d87f1a19fa5349f871f220b75f93ab" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Dr Lava Deo Awasthi NT"> </figure>  What were the most significant challenges for you as Chairperson? One of the major challenges was winning people’s trust in advocating for the mission of the Language Commission. I faced considerable resistance as I sought to emphasise the use of native languages in families and communities. While the Commission advocated for multilingualism and promoted linguistic diversity, the prevailing policy circles and central level institutions had been deeply influenced by a one-language discourse and ideology of Nepali only. The spread of English also poses a huge threat to Nepal’s languages. However, people in power do not seem to see this as a problem. They tend to abandon their own languages in preference for English. The way that Nepal’s municipalities are increasingly introducing English as a medium of instruction at the earliest stage of a child’s school-based education has proven to be detrimental to their cognitive development, socio-emotional wellbeing and academic success. Most of Nepal’s elites have been heavily influenced by the spread of English and remain unaware about its impact on their home languages as well as on the inter-generational transmission of Indigenous languages in the country. I wish that we could have produced more compelling evidence to show the consequences of making poor policy choices for our children’s education. Demystification calls for a collective response. To make change happen across this entire, complex and federalising country was daunting work and left like a race against time. I feel that I could have done more to offer concrete examples in favour of using the mother tongue as a medium of children’s education at the earliest stages of a child’s education. What do you see the Language Commission achieving in the next 5-10 years? The Language Commission will have to ensure that all of its key recommendations are implemented at all levels of government. In 10 years’ time, all seven of Nepal’s provinces will have their official languages in place. These languages will also be recognised as languages of federal business, alongside Nepali. I anticipate that all official languages in the federal and provincial systems will have a national portal for inter-language corpora using machine translation to fulfil their federal, provincial and local level language functions, and that all languages spoken in Nepal will be represented through a digital database in the national archive. The Office of Statistics will monitor the status of Nepal’s languages over time. By the end of the next decade, each municipality in the country will have recognised one or two official languages at the local level, based on speech populations. Other local languages will have received community-level legal recognition and official status to fulfil their functional roles. Languages that are highly endangered or at risk will be entitled to receive state grants for enhancing local level capabilities to encourage families and young learners to speak the language. Incentive schemes will be introduced in municipalities that promote language within the family and at home. Inter-generational transmission of languages will have received welcome and timely attention across Nepal. It is my hope that all schools—public and private—will have introduced mother tongue medium instruction at the earliest stage of school education, at least up to class five. Nepali, English and other national as well as classical and foreign languages will be taught as subjects. The existing policy of English medium education at the early stage of education will be abolished. The Government of Nepal will be held accountable if the number of speakers of any language decreases or if local communities face language loss and greater endangerment. Under the aegis of the Language Commission, a Centre for Language Research and Innovation will be created with world-class facilities for language documentation and archiving in collaboration with Tribhuvan University’s Central Department of Linguistics and other relevant institutions. Harnessing the vastness of Nepal’s linguistic diversity, the Language Commission will morph into a centre of excellence for national and international communities to engage in collaborative language research, to share experiences and document best practices at in service of global linguistic diversity and Nepal’s many Indigenous languages.

Languages are both software and hardware

Nearly 750,000 Nepalis went abroad for employment in the past year, and more than 100,000 left on student visas. Most of them were young Nepali men and women, and the number has been increasing every year. As with other sections of society, Nepal’s security agencies also face a recruitment crisis. Nepal Police opened recruitment for 64 inspectors in September, and received 2,239 applications, compared to 2,718 candidates last year. Police also invited candidates for 256 assistant sub-inspectors this year for which it received 17,756 applications – down from 19,932 last year. It is the same story in the Nepal Army, the number of applicants for the post of Officer Cadet (Second Lieutenant) went down from 6,144 for 400 open seats in 2019 to 4,390 in 2020. Meanwhile, applicants in the paramilitary Armed Police Force went down from 857 applications for 75 posts in 2021 to 536 applicants for 99 posts last year. While the number of applicants appears higher than the demand, the data shows a significant decrease in applications for vacancies in Nepal’s law enforcement agencies. Security personnel are recruited on the basis of rank and age in Nepal, and the age cutoff for entry into Nepal’s security agencies is typically 25 years. Sociologist and migration expert Ganesh Gurung says that the demographic of young, physically fit Nepalis emigrating abroad in search of better opportunities has impacted recruitment into law enforcement and the military here at home. “The returns from working in Nepal’s police and army are minimal, whereas overseas job opportunities are more attractive,” Gurung says. “The work may be physically demanding abroad, but the pay is a lot higher.”  <figure><img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20241116041148_a7e477e0ee2f56acf16c2559fdb24d8f0377f7bc1f9e56138bc40108fc4fa33f.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20241116041148_a7e477e0ee2f56acf16c2559fdb24d8f0377f7bc1f9e56138bc40108fc4fa33f" data-rendition-name="original" width="800" height="534" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal Police"><figcaption>Nepal Police</figcaption></figure>  Nepal Police spokesperson DIG Dan Bahadur Karki agrees that the physical and mental demands of a law enforcement job is incomparable to the income that security personnel earn. “A young Nepali who works in Dubai earns enough to build a home in the village within four years, while a Nepali with the same qualifications and physical ability in a security agency here barely makes enough to survive,” says Karki. “Obviously the youth prefer foreign employment.” Security agencies are now worried about the quality of inducted manpower. “There is a difference in work ethic between an applicant chosen from a competitive pool of 50 candidates versus one chosen from a pool of three candidates,” explains Gurung. “Unmotivated employees hamper the overall performance of the state apparatus.” Nepal Army spokesperson Brigadier General Gaurab Kumar KC says recruitment has not been hampered by outmigration: “We have still been getting more than three times the applicants than there are open posts, so we are not yet worried.” Even so, the passing rates of aspirants have gone down for security forces after the Public Service Commission began examinations for military recruitment in 2015. In fact, the Nepal Army complained about the Commission’s involvement in recruitment. Still, the number of vacant military posts tends to exceed the number of passing candidates. Nepal Army’s KC says that the military will not compromise on intake criteria even if there are fewer passing applicants. “Unqualified persons will not be admitted even if there are less-than-required passing candidates. We will re-advertise if that is the case.” But Nepal’s security forces now also have to worry about retention of existing personnel. About 900 Nepal Army, 600 Nepal Police, and 300 Armed police personnel resign every year before the completion of their tenure.  <figure><img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20241116041148_b8cd62f70eea3aac7d3d3778615a5b70b1e20550c9bd76321f051f9c766fd2a9.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20241116041148_b8cd62f70eea3aac7d3d3778615a5b70b1e20550c9bd76321f051f9c766fd2a9" data-rendition-name="original" width="750" height="378" loading="lazy" alt="Armed police forces"><figcaption>Armed Police Force</figcaption></figure>  In 2020, Home Minister Ram Bahadur Thapa recalled almost 1,000 police personnel who had been deployed for the security of VIPs after long-standing criticism that security forces were being misused to cater to political and bureaucratic leadership. However, security personnel have continued to be assigned to high-ranking officials as glorified housekeepers. In December 2022, Rabi Lamichhane’s Home Ministry had instructed its offices to recall unauthorised security personnel assigned to high-ranking officials, following which 500 officers from Nepal Police and Armed Police Force were withdrawn from their details. But the Nepal Army does not have to follow such rules, and the practice of army personnel serving high-ranking active-duty and retired military personnel remains. Conditions here are dire enough that many active duty officers in Nepal’s military and police forces have chosen to leave their jobs to serve in the Russian Army to fight in the Ukraine war. The hierarchical culture and chain of command of politics, bureaucracy, law enforcement and military has also meant that abuse and mistreatment of subordinates is rife in Nepal’s security forces. “Feudalism is alive and well within our security institutions,” says Gurung. “When soldiers and security forces who swore to protect and serve the nation are made to be at the beck and call of politicians and bureaucrats, it is easy to understand why they are disillusioned with their jobs and why they choose to quit and find jobs abroad.”

Job insecurity in security forces

Earlier this month, Nepal received Rs1.6 billion from the World Bank as part of its <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/will-nepal-ever-be-paid-for-saving-trees">Forest Carbon Partnership Facility (FCPF)</a>, rewarding the country for increasing its carbon sink capacity. Nepal is the first in South Asia to benefit from this facility, and it is specifically to recompense the country for increasing forest cover in 13 Tarai districts between 2018-2024. “We are also trying to get another Rs13 billion from the facility while also preparing for free market-based carbon trading in the international market,” says Nabaraj Pudasaini of the REDD (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation in Developing Countries) Implementation Centre. Big emitters of greenhouse gases are under pressure to reduce their carbon emissions, and many have signed agreements to do so by investing in decarbonisation projects in developing countries. Countries that emit more than a specified amount of carbon would be able to buy emission rights from countries that emit less. Nepal is internationally known for its community forestry program which has been largely credited for <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/tree-mendous">increasing tree cover to over 45%</a> in less than three decades. But this achievement had not been adequately recognised or rewarded internationally before. Forests, especially in the tropics, absorb and store large amounts of carbon while releasing oxygen in a process known as photosynthesis. <a href="https://www.fao.org/forest-resources-assessment/en/">Preventing deforestation</a> and increasing canopy cover is considered a much more achievable goal than reducing emission in the scale necessary to limit global average temperature to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. COP11 in Montreal in 2005 first proposed reducing carbon emissions by improving forest quality by halting degradation. By 2015, a new mechanism of financial assistance was created to help less developed countries with sustainable management of forests <a href="https://www.un-redd.org/">(called REDD+)</a>. Under this new mechanism, countries receive aid based on their efforts to prevent forest degradation and increase carbon sink, and in 2021 the World Bank was entrusted with implementing it. Nepal’s FCPF receipt this month was calculated on the basis of 2.4 million tons of carbon stored at a rate of $5 per ton. In the second phase, Nepal will receive more than Rs4 billion within the next year for storing an additional 7 million tons of carbon. Eighty per cent of this amount obtained from carbon trading needs to be spent on local beneficiaries and indigenous communities.&nbsp; But carbon trading is not easy, Nepal needs to prove that protected forests will not be destroyed in future.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20241121091132_c8a381c9a95aa86fec558951650d97bb87914741f01766982ba2b086af001f16.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20241121091132_c8a381c9a95aa86fec558951650d97bb87914741f01766982ba2b086af001f16" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="999" loading="lazy" alt="Greenbacks for greenery NT "> <figcaption>Photo: KUNDA DIXIT</figcaption> </figure>  Explains carbon trading expert Yugan Manandhar. “Forests should be handed over to the community and shown that they are managed sustainably. Proving this will be particularly challenging; forest encroachment and degradation is rife in the Tarai.” <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/multimedia/nepal-is-going-up-in-smoke">Deliberate forest fires</a> have also added to the challenge because they increase carbon emissions and reduce the sink capacity of forests. The basis for the amount that Nepal received was set five years ago by calculating the carbon reserves of forests in the 13 Tarai districts. In the meantime, sustainable forest management, tree plantation, forest destruction and erosion control were prioritised to increase carbon reserves in those forests. Nepal is signing another carbon trading agreement during the ongoing Baku climate conference. The <a href="https://www.leafcoalition.org/">Lowering Emissions by Accelerating Forest finance (LEAF Coalition) </a>proposes to sell the carbon stored in the forests of Bagmati, Gandaki and Lumbini provinces. For this, Nepal signed the letter of intent three years ago at COP26 in Glasgow. The target is to store 70 million tons of carbon in 32 million hectares of forest in the three provinces per which Nepal will receive Rs13 billion in four years at $10 per ton with provisions to increase the rate if various conditions are met. However, the agreement in itself doesn’t guarantee the amount. According to the targets set by Nepal, forest degradation should be stopped and carbon reserves increased by protecting tree cover. Preparations are also underway for clean air carbon trade because it has offset fossil fuel use by introducing 30,000 electric vehicles. Nepal has been selected for the first round to receive $40 million within one and a half years through the Clean Air System of the World Bank. Given that most of Nepal’s energy mix is from biomass, replacing them with electric stoves can significantly improve health by reducing indoor pollution as well as strengthen the country’s capacity for carbon trade. “Nepal's goal now is to sell carbon in the free market where carbon credits are bought and sold based on supply and demand in an open and transparent manner,” adds Pudasaini of the REDD Implementation Centre. “Nepal can now set its own price and bargain with interested buyer countries and organisations.” Lately, India has been discussing setting up a carbon market. Nepal has exported Rs12.72 billion worth of electricity to India so far this fiscal year, which can be traded under Nepal’s carbon market. “Carbon trading can create significant economic benefits for Nepal, which will help reinvest in development and environmental protection projects,” says Manandhar. “But we must prioritise sustainable management of forests, cutting older trees and allowing regrowth as well as promoting electric stoves and electric vehicles.”