<figure><img width="1400" height="933" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108141116/636a57529c7e80680e0547d7jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>A dengue patient being treated from inside a mosquito net at Teku hospital, Kathmandu. Photo: MONIKA DEUPALA</figcaption></figure>An unusually wet monsoon, increased human mobility and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/climate-damage/">climate change</a> are reasons why this year’s dengue outbreak in Nepal has been the worst so far. Already, six people have lost their lives and more than 8,000 are receiving treatment. Over 80,000 have been infected, but control efforts have been sorely lacking.The newest epidemic to hit Nepal has struck ministers, politicians, businessmen and doctors, drawing attention to  tropical diseases migrating to higher altitudes. Early rains provided ideal breeding grounds for disease-carrying mosquitoes that are migrating up the mountains as the earth heats up. “Vector insects are moving up the Himalaya as warming increases, and so are the diseases they carry. Climate change is leading to changes in the geographic pattern of diseases,” said Meghnath Dhimal of the Nepal Health Research Council. “We need to adjust to this new reality and be prepared for more frequent outbreaks.”Read Also:<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=32892&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tree-mendous,</a> Peter Gill<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=32877&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">It's a jungle out there</a>, Ajaya Dixithttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tz31WHLpMBo&amp;feature=youtu.beMaria Diuk-Wasser of the Yale School of Public Health confirmed the trend in a recent article in the journal Scientific American: ‘The direct effects of temperature increase are an increase in immature mosquito development, virus development and mosquito biting rates, which increase the contact rates with humans.’The government has been slow to act, despite being in the habit of blaming everything and anything on climate change. The <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/nepals-silent-emergency-springs-going-dry/">climate emergency</a> is just the latest crisis to hit Nepal, making all our pre-existing problems worse.And while mitigation efforts to reduce emissions in Nepal are not going to make a difference globally, given our negligible contribution to atmospheric carbon, switching to <a style="background-color: #ffffff; letter-spacing: 0.15px;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/no-smoke-without-fire/">renewable energy sources</a> is good for both the economy and ecology.Read Also:<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=32887&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Trees, politics and greed,</a> Mukesh Pokharel<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=32836&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Mustn't blame everything on Climate Change,</a> Editorial <img width="200" height="200" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108141116/636a57569c7e80680e0547d8jpeg.jpg" alt="">Nepal is importing Rs20 billion worth of electricity annually from India to meet generation shortfall. Power from these coal-fired thermal plants in Bihar has doubled the average Nepali’s carbon footprint, and has increased our trade imbalance with India.Read Also:<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=32872&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Protecting Kathmandu’s historic roofscape</a>, Anne Feenstra<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=32849&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tourism, aviation, and carbon,</a> Sanghamitra SubbaNepal’s <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/from-a-fossil-past-to-an-electric-future/">petroleum consumption is doubling thanks to LPG use</a>, expansion of the road network and increased vehicle imports. The Nepal-India, cross-border petroleum pipeline inaugurated this week is likely to deepen the country’s addiction to fossil fuels.Adaptation and mitigation should go hand-in-hand in Nepal, so that the country is prepared for extreme weather events caused by climate change on the one hand, while reducing petroleum imports to reduce air pollution, protect public health and narrow the trade gap, on the other.A new study has shown that Nepal’s total forest cover increased by 50% in the last 25 years — largely due to outmigration of people to the cities and overseas, as well as the success of the community forestry program. However, the government is trying to wrest back control of forests from local user groups, and infrastructure projects like Nijgad airport could reverse these gains.This issue of Nepali Times is part of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/world-joins-to-cover-climate/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Covering Climate Now</a>, a global collaboration of more than 250 newsRead Also:<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=32868&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Mosquitoes move up mountains as the earth warms</a>, Sonia Awale<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=32864&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Third Pole is warming faster than expected</a>, Kunda Dixit<a style="background-color: #ffffff; outline: 0px; font-weight: bold; letter-spacing: 0.01em; font-size: 15px;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=32856&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Climate Summit leads packed UN agenda,</a> Thalif Deen

Sonia Awale

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Climate-health emergency

<figure><img width="1500" height="1146" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221104141144/636517409c7e80680e02c268jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>OUTBREAK: Experimental spraying for mosquitos on inner walls of houses in the Tarai in the 1950s. Pic: USOM records, US National Archives, College Park, Maryland</figcaption></figure>since 1900, who has most significantly changed the flow of events? Many people would point to influential political actors like Chandra Shumshere or King Mahendra, even Prachanda.My answer: the Anopheles minimus mosquito.Although mountains loom large on Nepal’s horizon, much of the country’s history has been shaped by a lowland disease: <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/Comment/learning-from-malaria%20,971">malaria</a>. One visitor to Nepal in the 1920s (somewhat dramatically) called malaria ‘a name which hums an undertone of death throughout the chronicles of Nepal’.Malaria has long plagued the Tarai, but also, places like Pokhara in the hills. Just as malaria shaped Nepal’s past, its almost complete removal in the 1960s and 1970s has shaped Nepal’s present, launching vast demographic, environmental, and political changes that are still playing out. <figure><img width="640" height="384" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221104141144/636517439c7e80680e02c269jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure><a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/Buzz-guts-of-the-anopheles,548">Anopheles minimus</a> was a central actor in these stories. It carried the country’s most dangerous malaria and its susceptibility to chemical spraying hastened the decline of the disease. Had this little mosquito possessed different habits, Nepal’s history would have unfolded very differently: malaria would have killed fewer people, and its removal would not have been so quick and complete.Many people think of malaria as a Tarai disease that originates in dirty, stagnant water during the monsoon. In fact, Nepal’s malaria was several different diseases, came mostly from clean water, declined during the height of the monsoon, plagued the hills as well as the Tarai, and affected various parts of the Tarai differently. ‘The whole of the Tarai,’ one scholar has noted, ‘was not equally malarious.’Malaria is not just one disease, but ‘a kaleidoscope of different infections’. Nepal had two types of malaria: vivax (‘the great debilitator’) and falciparum (‘the deadly killer’). Falciparum often caused anemia, and if untreated, brought epilepsy, blindness, brain misfunctions—and even coma and death.It was most likely falciparum that Father Giuseppe de Rovato described in 1868: ‘At the foot of the hills, the country is called ‘Teriani’; and there the air is very unwholesome from the middle of March to the middle of November: and people in their passage catch a disorder called in the language of that country Aul, which is a putrid fever, and of which the generality of people, who are attacked with it, die in a few days.’ “Mosquitoes are justifiably unloved, but unjustifiably understudied by historians.” <img width="100" height="115" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221104141144/636517469c7e80680e02c26ajpeg.jpg" alt=""> John McNeill Historian Two mosquito species carried malaria in Nepal: Anopheles fluviatilis and Anopheles minimus. Both preferred to breed near clean water in Nepal’s two main malarial zones: hill valleys, and the forest belt on either side of the Chure Range.‘No elevation short of 3,000 to 4,000 feet above the sea,’ British resident<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=3246#.Wrh4gtRua70"> Brian Hodgson</a> noted in the mid nineteenth century, ‘suffices to rid the atmosphere of the low Himalaya from malaria.’This was mostly vivax, not falciparum, but it still had big impact: hill communities generally placed their settlements above 3-4,000 ft and only partially cultivated the fertile land of valley floors.Another surprise: not all of the Tarai had bad malaria. Indeed, by the 1960s, the southern belt along the Indian border between Nepalganj and Biratnagar had very little malaria. This shocked government entomologists who searched for malaria-carrying mosquitos but found neither An. minimus nor An. fluviatilis.It was the forest belt that harboured the country’s most dangerous malaria. Straddling the Chure hills, this strip included Inner Tarai valleys like Chitwan, Sindhuli and the undisturbed northern parts of the Tarai.Here, the main carrier of the most lethal form of malaria (falciparum) was the Anopheles minimus. Because it was very small and bit softly and mostly at night, it often went undetected, making it particularly dangerous. Shirtless men sitting in the evening air for an hour or two could get 25-30 bites. <figure><img width="640" height="458" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221104141144/636517479c7e80680e02c26bjpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>But the minimus was easily wiped out by insecticides like DDT. This was because, as a Nepali entomologist once told me, minimus acted ‘like a king’. It had refined tastes. Unlike other mosquitos, it preferred not animal but human blood, and after feasting sought out comfortable accommodations — resting inside houses, not outside. DDT was easiest to spray on walls inside houses, exactly where minimus liked to hang out.During the 1950s and 1960s, <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/how-chitwan-was-opened,4159">the World Health Organisation and United States</a> led a global campaign to wipe out malaria in scores of countries around the world, including Nepal. Many of these efforts fell far short of the goal, mostly because the mosquito carriers proved hard to eliminate or they developed <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=5624#.Wrh4zdRua70">resistance</a> to insecticides and medicines. In Nepal, however, despite manpower shortages and a daunting geography, eliminating the Anopheles minimus proved relatively easy. Although never reaching complete eradication, Nepal’s program proved far more successful than most.The near complete removal of malaria in a country whose history had been moulded by the disease brought dramatic changes: vast movements of people from the hill ridges to valley floors and to the Tarai, as well as movement north from the plains. There was large-scale deforestation and habitat loss, and tumultuous social and political reconfigurations. Almost everyone was affected, but especially the Tharu, one of Nepal’s largest ethnic groups, who lived primarily in or near the forest belt.These changes would probably never have come, at least not in exactly the same form, had the Anopheles minimus possessed slightly different habits. Indeed, if it had not liked resting exactly where DDT was sprayed, malaria might still be a dominant force in Nepali life.This little non-human actor deserves a big place in Nepal’s history books alongside the much better known political movers and shakers. Tom Robertson is an environmental historian and Executive Director of Fulbright Nepal. A longer version of this article will appear in this month’s Journal of American History.Read also:<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/Comment/learning-from-malaria%20,971">Learning from Malaria</a>, Bjørn Lomborg<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=5624#.Wrynky5ubIV">The return of the parasites</a>, Hemlata Rai

The insect that changed Nepal’s history

Nepali Congress (NC) President Gagan Thapa's candidacy in Sarlahi-4 has thrust this Madhes constituency into rare national focus. If Thapa wins and the NC emerges as the largest party, Sarlahi-4 will send Nepal's next prime minister to Parliament. But if he does not, Nepal’s grand old party will face the next years in the opposition to fight another day. There is a troubling paradox in Sarlahi-4 where the district bordering the Indian state of Bihar has been a battleground for national politicians with fierce electoral competition, all while remaining one of the region's most underserved and underdeveloped constituencies.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485.png" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485" data-rendition-name="original" width="1802" height="1276" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: MADHES PAHARA MEDIA</figcaption> </figure>  Ever since Mahant Thakur split from NC in 2008 to form the Tarai Madhes Loktantrik Party, the district has seen rotating political alliances and fragmented votes. Yet, despite 18 years of candidates promising change irrigation schemes remain incomplete, market access for farmers has not improved, unemployment is high.&nbsp; On election day, voters here marked their ballots with fingers stained by dye from the Holi festival the day before. The road leading to Barathawa Bazar was deserted for the most part, except for some youth riding in motorcycles. This is where the high-profile contest between Gagan Thapa and RSP nominee Amresh Singh is being staged. Among the other aspirants is 27-year-old UML candidate Amnish Yadav, the son of former MP Shiv Pujan Yadav. The Yadavs are a political family with considerable caste influence in the constituency. In 2022 Yadav’s daughter Madhumala Yadav received over 14,000 votes here, ranking third overall. Yadav was voted MP from the Maoist party, but defected to the UML this time. His other son is the chair of Sarlahi’s Ramnagar Rural Municipality. Sarhali-4 has 121,012 voters, and the Yadav is banking on the 27,000-strong Yadav vote bank. Sarlahi-4 voter Avishek Sah told us he wanted his vote to go to a young nominee and not someone who has been MP thrice already, like Amresh Singh. &nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10" data-rendition-name="original" width="1200" height="1600" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  To make local loyalties even more complicated, Amnish Yadav’s uncle, Harinder Yadav is an active NC member and walked side by side with Gagan Thapa during his door-to-door campaigns.&nbsp; The NC is betting on Thapa getting over 60% of the total votes. Amresh Singh’s tally could be limited to 10,000 votes — that too because of the nationwide RSP wave, and the popularity of its prime ministerial hopeful Balendra (Balen) Shah. “Amresh Singh lost his appeal when he played victim after he was denied a ticket by the NC in 2022,” Harinder Yadav says. Voters we spoke to here agreed with this assessment that Singh did not do much for the district once he got elected in the past, and being a part of the RSP seems to be his biggest asset. “The only reason I voted for Amresh Singh is because Balen is in RSP,” local voter Mahendra Gupta from Barathawa. &nbsp;“This is his last chance to return the people’s trust.”&nbsp; Gupta is aware of the institutional presence of the NC here. The party received the most votes in 2022 local elections, adding that the candidacy of someone as high-profile as Thapa is a positive sign for Sarlahi-4.&nbsp; Other voters like Ruby Gupta are rooting for both the NC and the RSP. “I will vote for Gagan and for Balen,” she says, adding that her FPTP vote will go to Thapa while her PR ballot would be for the RSP. RSP supporters are confident that their candidate will win big because even though many voters may not have openly voiced their support they still voted for the party and candidate. The Balen Wave was not limited to RSP voters, but also to UML candidate Yadav, who said in a gathering that he will be “the voters Balen” if they elect him. He touted his party’s track record in government, and largely campaigned on administrative efficiency, infrastructural expansion, and local service delivery. Amresh Singh ran on the RSP’s anti-establishment brand, promising to fight corruption, challenge traditional party politics, improve basic services such as education, health, jobs, and infrastructure, while pushing for stronger representation and development for Madhes.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="1200" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo:AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  Singh’s rivalry with his NC competitor goes beyond the ballot— he allegedly blames Thapa for being denied the NC ticket in 2022, which led him to win the election from Sarlahi-4 as an independent. &nbsp; For his part, Gagan Thapa focused on a more pragmatic development agenda that includes upgrading roads and irrigation, improving schools and hospitals, supporting farmers, and creating employment opportunities with improved governance at the centre. He also promised to build an engineering college in the constituency.&nbsp; Thapa also promoted his own anti-establishment image within the NC, repeatedly reminding voters on the campaign trail that he represents the aspirations of the youth.&nbsp; On Thursday, as voting progressed, there were violent disruptions in two centres where voting was briefly halted. But Sarlahi district police spokesperson Saroj Rai told Nepali Times that there were no major problems. Police in collaboration with the Nepal Army sent the ballot papers to the district’s counting stations, where the votes are expected to be tallied through the night and the winner announced Friday morning.

Sarlahi-4 nervously watches ballot count

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<div class="embed-block"><iframe src="https://election-geo-dashboard.pages.dev/" width="100%" height="700" frameborder="0"> </iframe></div>

Nepal election live results

As this report is uploaded, the latest results in Nepal’s election show that the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) is headed for an even bigger sweep than most had predicted.
The RSP was leading by large margins in 49 of 165 constituencies, &nbsp;with the UML, NC and NCP trailing far behind. Prominent political figures from the old parties like K P Oli, Minwndra Prasad Rijal, Ishwar Pokhrel, Bishnu Prasad Poudel, Bimalendra Nidhi all seem headed for defeat.
It does look like the RSP’s bell election symbol is ringing right across Nepal — from cities to the remotest districts in the mountains and plains. The party’s blue colour is sweeping the land.
The Nepali people seem to have sent a clear message that they were throughly dissatisfied with the chronic failure of the three main parties to work in the national interest to create jobs and deliver development. It was also an expression of lingering outrage over the the 8 September massacre outside Parliament. &nbsp;
It now looks almost certain that Balendra Shah will get to be Nepal’s next, and youngest, prime minister. Hopefully he will be leading a cabinet of competent and honest technocrats. It remains to seen how the power equation between Shah and the RSP’s leader, Rabi Lamichhane will play out.
Lamichhane is out of jail on bail for fraud cases which he has called political vendetta by the previous regime. Both he and Shah are charismatic and ambitious. Their working relationship will determine Nepal's political stability and whether it can avoid the political cronyism of the past.
This election was not just about casting votes. It was about standing up to principles and a value system, and respecting the hopes and aspirations of Nepal’s youth. It to push for transparent government and against impunity — including for the gunning down of young Nepalis in cold blood.
<div class="embed-block"><iframe src="https://election-geo-dashboard.pages.dev/" width="100%" height="600" frameborder="0"> </iframe>Live election results as winners of candidates are announced.</div>
CAN DO MAN
Shah got mixed reviews as mayor. He was impulsive and ad hoc, but most people inKathmandu and beyond liked his can-do attitude and unconventional style which stood in sharp contract to the legacy leaders. Over his three year mayorship he showed more maturity and planning capacity.&nbsp;
But he always ran headlong into opposition from the federal government over his urban planning and other initiatives to make Kathmandu more liveable. Coming from a civil and structural engineering background, he was involved in building low-cost housing after the 2015 earthquake.
But his public persona is more tied to his irreverent rap lyrics that stood up for the marginalised underprivileged in society, while exposing the high-handedness and apathy of the state. But this also exposed contradictions because he also used his own municipal guards to beat and chase away street vendors and squatters.
But there is no doubt that a combination of the sharp messaging in his rap videos amplified by the algorithms of social media ignited Nepal’s youth to rise up. It was more about optics and emotion than policy and strategy.
He studied Kathmandu district for five years, visiting experts in every field before announcing his independent candidacy for mayor in 2022. Many like me in his own constitunecy did not know who he was and where he came from.
He is a year younger than my architect son, and I saw in him a reflection of my own son’s commitment to serving the nation. I voted for him to be mayor despite his sometimes erratic behaviour, which could be attributed to his youth.
The best sign of his strategic planning, which unsettled septuagenarian and octogenarian politicians, is the he did not grab the first easy option of becoming prime minister in September when GenZ activists offered him the post.&nbsp;
Joining RSP was a masterstroke, as was his challenge to Oli in Jhapa to project national branding. He needed a party platform and Lamichhane needed a popular prime ministerial persona since he himself could not hold the post.
Shah has shown the capacity to take risks when he believes the value justifies the action for the country. Now, he will have to show more strategic thinking on a national scale, as well as understand the delicate geopolitics of Nepal.&nbsp;
He must rise above the kind of crude social media posts that earned him followers on X, but did nothing to erase his erratic and impulsive image.&nbsp;
Some assume that behind his trademark RayBan shades is a closet dictator, and his past remarks about Hitler are still up on social media. He has in the past shown impatience with criticism, unleashing supporters on social media to troll detractors.&nbsp;
Even so, the public seems willing to place their hope on an educated young man with integrity and a proven record for planning at the helm. By tomorrow it will be clear whether the hope Nepalis have held has been fulfilled, and the coming years will show if the RSP will lead Nepalis to a better future.
The voters seem to have shown the door even to the NC despite the fact that under Gagan Thapa, the party had turned a new leaf. A strong government under Prime Minister Balendra Shah heading a carefully selected cabinet and a strong opposition of the NC, UML and other parties for check and balance may be just what we need for a stable Nepal.&nbsp;
Nepalis have collectively always shown maturity in elections. This time they have given a resounding endorsement for integrity and for good governance.

Bells ring all over Nepal

After Thursday’s election, Nepalis are in a wait-and-watch mode. The Election Commission says counting ballot papers will be expedited this time, and the results for the First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) will start being declared within days. In 2022, it took three weeks for the final results to be tallied.&nbsp;
But winning an election is only half the challenge for the parties, forming a government under parliamentary politics is like a complicated mathematical equation.&nbsp;
In 2022, the Nepali Congress (NC) emerged as the biggest party, winning 89 seats. But the UML with 78 seats and the Maoists with 32 formed a minority government. In fact, Sher Bahadur Deuba did not become PM then despite leading the biggest party in Parliament.
This time, there is an unmistakeable Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) wave led by its prime ministerial candidate, Balendra Shah. Besides his own popularity, Shah represents change which most Nepalis are clamouring for after decades of corrupt and feckless coalitions that did not deliver.&nbsp;
The past months of campaigning has seen massive youth engagement on social media through memes, AI clips, and viral images. Digital content that appeals to emotion rather than policy debate between candidates shape electoral outcomes in Nepal and elsewhere. &nbsp;
Shah represents GenZ aspirations, and was their candidate for prime minister. It was only when he declined that Sushila Karki was nominated. None of the political parties in the recent past -- new, old, or revolutionary — have won enough seats to go it alone.&nbsp;
The most recent majority government was formed by the short-lived Communist Party of Nepal after the UML-Maoist merger in 2022. But that rare two-thirds majority collapsed after a power struggle between K P Oli and Pushpa Kamal Dahal. The only party to have won a majority was the NC in the 1991 and 1999 elections. But it is near impossible for it to repeat this success now, even with Gagan Thapa's rebranding of the party.&nbsp;
We have compiled these possible scenarios for election outcome in order of likelihood:
RSP gets a majority
RSP hits the magic 138 to form a government entirely on its own. Balendra Shah wins Jhapa-5, and becomes the new prime minister at 35, the youngest ever to hold the office in Nepal. But danger lurks: there could be a personality clash between Shah and Lamichhane who are both equally ambitious. History could repeat itself.&nbsp;
RSP wins but does not get a majority
RSP is likely to sweep the most votes, but what if it does not secure enough seats for a majority? It would need a coalition partner and Nepali Communist Party (NCP) under Pushpa Kamal Dahal could fit the bill, but only if it has the numbers. The RSP is not likely to team up with the UML or NC.
The NCP is relatively untainted by the 8 September events, and also has former UML defectors like Madhav Kumar Nepal and Bhim Rawal who could bag their rural vote banks. After all, there are no permanent foes in politics. If the royalist RPP and Tarai-based Janata Samajwadi have enough seats, those could be options for the RSP. &nbsp;
NC is second
The NC under the new leadership of Gagan Thapa could become the second biggest force and form a government with RSP in a power-sharing deal with Shah. This would be the most stable scenario since the RSP and NC have competent and idealistic young technocrats. Thapa himself embodies a strong combination of both old and new politics to navigate the system for more efficient government. But then Thapa and the RSP's Rabi Lamichhane do not get along.
NC and NCP form a majority
If the NC becomes the largest party but not by a big margin, it could join up with the NCP and Ujyalo. Teaming up with the UML would likely face backlash with the party and outside. If Gagan Thapa becomes prime minister he will face internal pressure from both Deuba loyalists. Same old story.
Minority coalition of NC, UML and NCP
RSP becomes the first party but does not get a majority, paving the way for the three legacy parties to cobble together a minority government. While this is possible in Nepal’s parliamentary system, such a scenario is likely to lead to more instability and dissatisfaction among young Nepalis demanding change, and even trigger street unrest. &nbsp;

mosquitoes

Climate-health emergency

The insect that changed Nepal’s history

Sarlahi-4 nervously watches ballot count

Nepal election live results

Bells ring all over Nepal

The magic 138