It is widely known that a significant trade and currency dispute between Nepal and Tibet that began in 1788 led to a military conflict between China and the Gorkha Kingdom. The outcome of this <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/sino-nepal-ties-in-the-post-afghan-era">Sino-Gorkha War </a>in 1791-92, particularly the question of who emerged victorious, however, remained uncertain and subject to debate. The emergence of a hitherto unknown war report of 1793 sheds not only new light on this question, but may also offer insights into contemporary global peace challenges. Scholars relying on Chinese and Tibetan sources assert that China emerged victorious, and that Nepal was required to dispatch a quinquennial mission bearing valuable goods to the imperial palace in Beijing.&nbsp; Chinese scholar Wei Yuan, in his Military History of the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/losing-loose-change-in-nepal">Qing Dynasty</a> (Shèngwu Ji) wrote: ‘The request of the rebels (the Gorkhalis) for surrender was granted.’&nbsp; Similarly, an inscription from 1792, found on a stone slab beneath the Potala in Lhasa, attributed to the Chinese emperor, reads: ‘Now that the Gorkhas have submitted to me, the imperial army has been withdrawn.’ Qing paintings also depict an ostentatious victory banquet. However, this claim of Chinese victory has been occasionally contradicted by Nepali and Western scholars who both rely on scarce Nepali sources. For example, the Nepalikabhupa-Vamsavali (misleadingly known as the ‘Wright Chronicle’) states: ‘(<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/12-full-opinion/the-end-of-history">King Rana Bahadur Shah</a>) killed the Chinese army. He thus caused the Chinese Emperor to praise him.’&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240301110348_f49d0e1564b05298a0771f30977f976f785b26636dd430bd19c81ed2d2235b4f.jpg" data-media-id="editor_3" data-image-id="20240301110348_f49d0e1564b05298a0771f30977f976f785b26636dd430bd19c81ed2d2235b4f" data-rendition-name="original" width="1037" height="625" loading="lazy" alt="Sino-Nepal War"> <figcaption>Capture of Syaphru in present day Rasuwa District by the Chinese Army. Paintings and engravings commissioned by the Qianlong emperor of the Gorkha Campaign collaboration between Chinese and European painters. The Jesuit missionaries were involved in producing the drawings in China were Giuseppe Castiglione, Jean-Denis Attiret, Ignace Sichelbart and Jean Damascene.(Photo: ALL PHOTOS: NEPALI TIMES)</figcaption> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240301110348_630572b9dcd2a41c2cb499b105e6c7ac3b5610f4d6185cc63d746f070bc0ff5e.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20240301110348_630572b9dcd2a41c2cb499b105e6c7ac3b5610f4d6185cc63d746f070bc0ff5e" data-rendition-name="original" width="1036" height="622" loading="lazy" alt="Sino-Nepal war"> <figcaption>The Qing celebration of consolidation of Tibet after the Gorkha Campaign in 1792.</figcaption> </figure>  Additionally, a letter attributed to Rana Bahadur Shah, addressed to officials sent for the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/from-nalapani-to-kalapani">conquest of Kumaon Garhwal</a> and published in 1957 by Dhana Bajra Bajracharya and Jnana Mani Nepala in Aitihasik Patrasamgraha (Vol 1.56-61), supports the notion of Nepali victory. Recently, a comprehensive Nepali war report has come to light, previously only indirectly or partially known. This report (sandhi) from 1793AD has been published by the project Documents on the History of Religion and Law of Pre-modern Nepal, a collaboration between the Heidelberg Academy of Sciences and Humanities and the National Archives in Kathmandu, established in 2016.&nbsp; The sandhi and its translation by Manik Bajracharya, Rajan Khatiwoda and Axel Michaels is publicly accessible. According to this 28-folio text, which details the course of the war from the initial clashes in Tibet in 1788 to the so-called Treaty of Betrawati in late 1792, Nepal emerged victorious in the final and decisive battle at Betrawati near Nuwakot. The sandhi recounts: ‘After realising that his troops had been defeated and had fled, the Minister (General Fuk’anggan) observed them through his binoculars and issued the following order: “Establish a strong checkpoint at the Betrawati bridge and do not allow any fleeing soldier who crosses the Betrawati river to pass. Chop off the nose of anyone who tries to cross, and also send additional troops.” The Minister himself came to this side of the bridge with 13 cannons. At that time, the Gorkha Maharaja’s troops at the checkpoint pushed back the Chinese troops to Betrawati. Since the Chinese troops were in a hurry, they were unable to complete building a new bridge.&nbsp; In their rush to cross the bridge, many Chinese soldiers drowned in the Betrawati. The remaining soldiers threw two cannons into the river out of fear of the Gorkha Maharaja’s troops, and many of them jumped into the river and died. When the Minister witnessed the defeat of his troops, he opened the way over the old bridge Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/beginning-of-the-end-of-the-gorkha-empire">Beginning of the end of the Gorkha empire</a>, Alisha Sijapati  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240301110348_f8b8ef2b8e7db243dfdbcfd6190176400c991219fe9508c08d839cff4d74fe6e.jpg" data-media-id="editor_7" data-image-id="20240301110348_f8b8ef2b8e7db243dfdbcfd6190176400c991219fe9508c08d839cff4d74fe6e" data-rendition-name="original" width="1012" height="612" loading="lazy" alt="Sino-Nepal war"> <figcaption>Battle of Betrawati</figcaption> </figure>  The sandhi continues with a peace offer in a quoted letter from the Chinese General to Rana Bahadur Shah: “In the midst of battle, victories and defeats are common occurrences. In such circumstances, no one should lose heart. Previously, I had communicated to the Gorkha Maharaja that we would resolve matters upon reaching Nuwakot. I had also instructed my troops to remain on this side of the bridge. Despite these precautions, we suffered losses (literally, ‘my troops died’). Let us consider this a tragic play, witnessed by myself. The populace, especially the underprivileged, must now feel extremely fearful. 'The Gorkha Maharaja and the British Resident need not fret about vacating Nuwakot, as I have decided to abandon my intention of advancing there. […] I will now draft a letter to the venerable Maharaja to appease him. I request you to also correspond with him, agreeing to the terms I will propose. If we can come to an agreement, I will withdraw my troops from your realm, report to the Chinese Emperor, persuade him, and arrange for numerous gifts (khillat) to be sent to the venerable Gorkha Maharaja and the <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=656">venerable saheba [Kirkpatrick]</a>.' It appears that both sides claimed victory. How was this possible? The key lies in the differing interpretations of the gifts exchanged. The Chinese referred to them as tribute (Chinese: gòng), while the Nepalis understood them primarily as ‘gifts’ (saugat, koseli). The sandhi details the agreed-upon terms: After five years, a representative of the Gorkha Maharaja will journey with a petition and offerings (saugat) to the Chinese Emperor, pay homage, and return with news. The Gorkha Maharaja and the King of Lhasa (the Dalai Lama) shall maintain their friendship and refrain from further hostilities, while both parties retain their respective territories. It was further decided that in transactions in Tibet, the unalloyed mahindramallī of the Gorkha Maharaja would be accepted at face value, while adulterated coins would be valued accordingly. Read also:<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-and-the-taliban-s-second-coming"> Nepal and the Taliban's second coming</a>, Kanak Mani Dixit Any enemy threat to the Gorkha Maharaja’s troops should be reported to the Chinese Emperor for potential military assistance. However, the existence of a formal peace treaty, the so-called Treaty of Betrawati, remains uncertain. The exact wording of this treaty has yet to be found in Nepali, Chinese or eventually Indian archives. In 1909, Padma Jang Bahadur Rana, the third son of Prime Minister Jang Bahadur, published an English text of the treaty without presenting an original document.&nbsp; Nepali scholar Yogi Naraharinath published a summary of this ‘contract’ in his Itihasa Prakashma Sandhi Patra Sangraha (BS 2012, vol. 1, p. 121), which closely aligns with the aforementioned points. He also notes that the treaty, written in English, is currently housed in the Jaisikothā office in Kathmandu.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240301120348_6918ee417cd84de38cf99946be3f7013c40cc959ab8ef0e12ab9a49f05467176.jpg" data-media-id="editor_10" data-image-id="20240301120348_6918ee417cd84de38cf99946be3f7013c40cc959ab8ef0e12ab9a49f05467176" data-rendition-name="original" width="763" height="355" loading="lazy" alt="Sino-nepal war"> </figure>  Paragraph 6 of this ‘treaty’ discusses the exchange of ‘products of their own country (aphaphna desha-ma ujjeko vastu)’ (Nepal and Tibet) to be sent to China every five years. This clause is pivotal, as it raises the question: are these products considered gifts, as most scholars understand them, or tribute payments? If interpreted as tribute, it would suggest that China emerged victorious and that Nepal acknowledged Chinese suzerainty. However, the sandhi mentions ceremonial and honorary gifts (najara) and presents (tohapha) sent to the Chinese emperor only in the preliminary peace agreement of 1789, negotiated in Kerung. All subsequent documents refer to saugat, meaning “gift” or “present”. For me, the answer to this question simultaneously resolves the conflict: both sides interpreted the terms differently, allowing each to declare victory. Sometimes, wars conclude with arrangements that enable both sides to claim success. Despite China’s evident superiority, Nepal avoided comprehensive defeat, while China failed to advance to Kathmandu, settling for an envoy (Amban) instead. Therefore, the Treaty of Betrawati offered certain advantages to both parties, albeit to varying degrees. The Rana prime ministers, grappling with issues of legitimacy, sought recognition as legitimate rulers through missions to China. Emphasising the importance of regular missions, the emperors placed Nepal on the outer periphery of their network of tributary states known as the Cefeng system, asserting their claim to universal power. The Treaty of Betrawati also highlights the divergent views on China’s suzerainty over Nepal (and Tibet). The lack of a clear victor in the war and Nepal’s relatively low significance to China contributed to this discrepancy. In addition to border reorganisation and fortification through watchtower construction, Nepal fulfilled smaller obligations such as returning looted items from the Tashi Lhunpo monastery.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240301110352_8be89e440deb5d824914ec0587d3c9dc1e5dd561fad6574ed0f444d6d07003f4.jpg" data-media-id="editor_11" data-image-id="20240301110352_8be89e440deb5d824914ec0587d3c9dc1e5dd561fad6574ed0f444d6d07003f4" data-rendition-name="original" width="2000" height="1563" loading="lazy" alt="Sino-Nepal war"> <figcaption>Recent rendering of the Battle of Betrawati at the Nepal Military Museum.</figcaption> </figure>  However, the five-year missions remained Nepal’s primary commitment, despite the Gorkha government’s increasing reluctance to fulfil them, ultimately discontinuing them from 1906 onwards. Conversely, China provided no military aid to Nepal, even during the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/the-start-of-the-anglo-gorkha-war">Anglo-Nepal War of 1814-16</a>, despite the agreements in the Treaty of Betrawati. Its impact was more pronounced in Tibet, where it led to the presence of influential Ambans like Song Yun (1752-1835) and diminished the authority of the Dalai Lama.&nbsp; The sandhi states: ‘While the Gorkha Maharaja’s Kaji and the (Dalai) Lama of Bhot (Tibet) once held political sway, they (the Tibetans) are now considered subjects/cultivators (raiyata) of China. In Bhot, Chinese directives govern all tasks.’ Thus, the Treaty of Betrawati underscores the parties’ contrasting views on China’s dominion over Nepal (and Tibet). The absence of a clear victor in the war, coupled with Nepal’s limited significance to China, contributed to this disparity.&nbsp; Despite border reorganisation and watchtower construction, Nepal’s fulfilment of smaller obligations, such as returning looted items from Tashi Lhunpo, and discontinuation of the five-year missions, China’s impact was more pronounced in Tibet, where it exerted authority through influential Ambans and curtailed the <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=14733">Dalai Lama</a>’s power. There are many ways to end a war – through victory and surrender, truce, scarce resources, fatigue or attrition. Even if there are only limited lessons to be learned from history, the solution to the Sino-Gorkha war, in which both parties could see themselves as winners, may make it seem advisable to rethink today’s military conflicts.&nbsp; Axel Michaels is with the Centre for Asian and Transcultural Studies (CATS) / Südasien-Institut der Universität Heidelberg and author of Nepal — A History from the Earliest Times to the Present Oxford University Press, 2024.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240301120344_a274b878f6082a05c8852790b086a3ac23a12efbfbf8dd67732b6ecc68c5aa0d.jpg" data-media-id="editor_14" data-image-id="20240301120344_a274b878f6082a05c8852790b086a3ac23a12efbfbf8dd67732b6ecc68c5aa0d" data-rendition-name="original" width="1352" height="1567" loading="lazy" alt="Sino-Nepal war"> </figure>

original

674x448

610x380

500x500

400x266

400x240

400x203

301x200

1250x600

1084x550

Neither side lost, both sides won

Nepali Congress (NC) President Gagan Thapa's candidacy in Sarlahi-4 has thrust this Madhes constituency into rare national focus. If Thapa wins and the NC emerges as the largest party, Sarlahi-4 will send Nepal's next prime minister to Parliament. But if he does not, Nepal’s grand old party will face the next years in the opposition to fight another day. There is a troubling paradox in Sarlahi-4 where the district bordering the Indian state of Bihar has been a battleground for national politicians with fierce electoral competition, all while remaining one of the region's most underserved and underdeveloped constituencies.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485.png" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485" data-rendition-name="original" width="1802" height="1276" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: MADHES PAHARA MEDIA</figcaption> </figure>  Ever since Mahant Thakur split from NC in 2008 to form the Tarai Madhes Loktantrik Party, the district has seen rotating political alliances and fragmented votes. Yet, despite 18 years of candidates promising change irrigation schemes remain incomplete, market access for farmers has not improved, unemployment is high.&nbsp; On election day, voters here marked their ballots with fingers stained by dye from the Holi festival the day before. The road leading to Barathawa Bazar was deserted for the most part, except for some youth riding in motorcycles. This is where the high-profile contest between Gagan Thapa and RSP nominee Amresh Singh is being staged. Among the other aspirants is 27-year-old UML candidate Amnish Yadav, the son of former MP Shiv Pujan Yadav. The Yadavs are a political family with considerable caste influence in the constituency. In 2022 Yadav’s daughter Madhumala Yadav received over 14,000 votes here, ranking third overall. Yadav was voted MP from the Maoist party, but defected to the UML this time. His other son is the chair of Sarlahi’s Ramnagar Rural Municipality. Sarhali-4 has 121,012 voters, and the Yadav is banking on the 27,000-strong Yadav vote bank. Sarlahi-4 voter Avishek Sah told us he wanted his vote to go to a young nominee and not someone who has been MP thrice already, like Amresh Singh. &nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10" data-rendition-name="original" width="1200" height="1600" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  To make local loyalties even more complicated, Amnish Yadav’s uncle, Harinder Yadav is an active NC member and walked side by side with Gagan Thapa during his door-to-door campaigns.&nbsp; The NC is betting on Thapa getting over 60% of the total votes. Amresh Singh’s tally could be limited to 10,000 votes — that too because of the nationwide RSP wave, and the popularity of its prime ministerial hopeful Balendra (Balen) Shah. “Amresh Singh lost his appeal when he played victim after he was denied a ticket by the NC in 2022,” Harinder Yadav says. Voters we spoke to here agreed with this assessment that Singh did not do much for the district once he got elected in the past, and being a part of the RSP seems to be his biggest asset. “The only reason I voted for Amresh Singh is because Balen is in RSP,” local voter Mahendra Gupta from Barathawa. &nbsp;“This is his last chance to return the people’s trust.”&nbsp; Gupta is aware of the institutional presence of the NC here. The party received the most votes in 2022 local elections, adding that the candidacy of someone as high-profile as Thapa is a positive sign for Sarlahi-4.&nbsp; Other voters like Ruby Gupta are rooting for both the NC and the RSP. “I will vote for Gagan and for Balen,” she says, adding that her FPTP vote will go to Thapa while her PR ballot would be for the RSP. RSP supporters are confident that their candidate will win big because even though many voters may not have openly voiced their support they still voted for the party and candidate. The Balen Wave was not limited to RSP voters, but also to UML candidate Yadav, who said in a gathering that he will be “the voters Balen” if they elect him. He touted his party’s track record in government, and largely campaigned on administrative efficiency, infrastructural expansion, and local service delivery. Amresh Singh ran on the RSP’s anti-establishment brand, promising to fight corruption, challenge traditional party politics, improve basic services such as education, health, jobs, and infrastructure, while pushing for stronger representation and development for Madhes.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="1200" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo:AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  Singh’s rivalry with his NC competitor goes beyond the ballot— he allegedly blames Thapa for being denied the NC ticket in 2022, which led him to win the election from Sarlahi-4 as an independent. &nbsp; For his part, Gagan Thapa focused on a more pragmatic development agenda that includes upgrading roads and irrigation, improving schools and hospitals, supporting farmers, and creating employment opportunities with improved governance at the centre. He also promised to build an engineering college in the constituency.&nbsp; Thapa also promoted his own anti-establishment image within the NC, repeatedly reminding voters on the campaign trail that he represents the aspirations of the youth.&nbsp; On Thursday, as voting progressed, there were violent disruptions in two centres where voting was briefly halted. But Sarlahi district police spokesperson Saroj Rai told Nepali Times that there were no major problems. Police in collaboration with the Nepal Army sent the ballot papers to the district’s counting stations, where the votes are expected to be tallied through the night and the winner announced Friday morning.

Sarlahi-4 nervously watches ballot count

&nbsp;
<div class="embed-block"><iframe src="https://election-geo-dashboard.pages.dev/" width="100%" height="700" frameborder="0"> </iframe></div>

Nepal Election live results

As this report is uploaded, the latest results in Nepal’s election show that the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) is headed for an even bigger sweep than most had predicted.
The RSP was leading by large margins in 49 of 165 constituencies, &nbsp;with the UML, NC and NCP trailing far behind. Prominent political figures from the old parties like K P Oli, Minwndra Prasad Rijal, Ishwar Pokhrel, Bishnu Prasad Poudel, Bimalendra Nidhi all seem headed for defeat.
It does look like the RSP’s bell election symbol is ringing right across Nepal — from cities to the remotest districts in the mountains and plains. The party’s blue colour is sweeping the land.
The Nepali people seem to have sent a clear message that they were throughly dissatisfied with the chronic failure of the three main parties to work in the national interest to create jobs and deliver development. It was also an expression of lingering outrage over the the 8 September massacre outside Parliament. &nbsp;
It now looks almost certain that Balendra Shah will get to be Nepal’s next, and youngest, prime minister. Hopefully he will be leading a cabinet of competent and honest technocrats. It remains to seen how the power equation between Shah and the RSP’s leader, Rabi Lamichhane will play out.
Lamichhane is out of jail on bail for fraud cases which he has called political vendetta by the previous regime. Both he and Shah are charismatic and ambitious. Their working relationship will determine Nepal's political stability and whether it can avoid the political cronyism of the past.
This election was not just about casting votes. It was about standing up to principles and a value system, and respecting the hopes and aspirations of Nepal’s youth. It to push for transparent government and against impunity — including for the gunning down of young Nepalis in cold blood.
<div class="embed-block"><iframe src="https://election-geo-dashboard.pages.dev/" width="100%" height="600" frameborder="0"> </iframe>Live election results as winners of candidates are announced.</div>
CAN DO MAN
Shah got mixed reviews as mayor. He was impulsive and ad hoc, but most people inKathmandu and beyond liked his can-do attitude and unconventional style which stood in sharp contract to the legacy leaders. Over his three year mayorship he showed more maturity and planning capacity.&nbsp;
But he always ran headlong into opposition from the federal government over his urban planning and other initiatives to make Kathmandu more liveable. Coming from a civil and structural engineering background, he was involved in building low-cost housing after the 2015 earthquake.
But his public persona is more tied to his irreverent rap lyrics that stood up for the marginalised underprivileged in society, while exposing the high-handedness and apathy of the state. But this also exposed contradictions because he also used his own municipal guards to beat and chase away street vendors and squatters.
But there is no doubt that a combination of the sharp messaging in his rap videos amplified by the algorithms of social media ignited Nepal’s youth to rise up. It was more about optics and emotion than policy and strategy.
He studied Kathmandu district for five years, visiting experts in every field before announcing his independent candidacy for mayor in 2022. Many like me in his own constitunecy did not know who he was and where he came from.
He is a year younger than my architect son, and I saw in him a reflection of my own son’s commitment to serving the nation. I voted for him to be mayor despite his sometimes erratic behaviour, which could be attributed to his youth.
The best sign of his strategic planning, which unsettled septuagenarian and octogenarian politicians, is the he did not grab the first easy option of becoming prime minister in September when GenZ activists offered him the post.&nbsp;
Joining RSP was a masterstroke, as was his challenge to Oli in Jhapa to project national branding. He needed a party platform and Lamichhane needed a popular prime ministerial persona since he himself could not hold the post.
Shah has shown the capacity to take risks when he believes the value justifies the action for the country. Now, he will have to show more strategic thinking on a national scale, as well as understand the delicate geopolitics of Nepal.&nbsp;
He must rise above the kind of crude social media posts that earned him followers on X, but did nothing to erase his erratic and impulsive image.&nbsp;
Some assume that behind his trademark RayBan shades is a closet dictator, and his past remarks about Hitler are still up on social media. He has in the past shown impatience with criticism, unleashing supporters on social media to troll detractors.&nbsp;
Even so, the public seems willing to place their hope on an educated young man with integrity and a proven record for planning at the helm. By tomorrow it will be clear whether the hope Nepalis have held has been fulfilled, and the coming years will show if the RSP will lead Nepalis to a better future.
The voters seem to have shown the door even to the NC despite the fact that under Gagan Thapa, the party had turned a new leaf. A strong government under Prime Minister Balendra Shah heading a carefully selected cabinet and a strong opposition of the NC, UML and other parties for check and balance may be just what we need for a stable Nepal.&nbsp;
Nepalis have collectively always shown maturity in elections. This time they have given a resounding endorsement for integrity and for good governance.

Bells ring all over Nepal

After Thursday’s election, Nepalis are in a wait-and-watch mode. The Election Commission says counting ballot papers will be expedited this time, and the results for the First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) will start being declared within days. In 2022, it took three weeks for the final results to be tallied.&nbsp;
But winning an election is only half the challenge for the parties, forming a government under parliamentary politics is like a complicated mathematical equation.&nbsp;
In 2022, the Nepali Congress (NC) emerged as the biggest party, winning 89 seats. But the UML with 78 seats and the Maoists with 32 formed a minority government. In fact, Sher Bahadur Deuba did not become PM then despite leading the biggest party in Parliament.
This time, there is an unmistakeable Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) wave led by its prime ministerial candidate, Balendra Shah. Besides his own popularity, Shah represents change which most Nepalis are clamouring for after decades of corrupt and feckless coalitions that did not deliver.&nbsp;
The past months of campaigning has seen massive youth engagement on social media through memes, AI clips, and viral images. Digital content that appeals to emotion rather than policy debate between candidates shape electoral outcomes in Nepal and elsewhere. &nbsp;
Shah represents GenZ aspirations, and was their candidate for prime minister. It was only when he declined that Sushila Karki was nominated. None of the political parties in the recent past -- new, old, or revolutionary — have won enough seats to go it alone.&nbsp;
The most recent majority government was formed by the short-lived Communist Party of Nepal after the UML-Maoist merger in 2022. But that rare two-thirds majority collapsed after a power struggle between K P Oli and Pushpa Kamal Dahal. The only party to have won a majority was the NC in the 1991 and 1999 elections. But it is near impossible for it to repeat this success now, even with Gagan Thapa's rebranding of the party.&nbsp;
We have compiled these possible scenarios for election outcome in order of likelihood:
RSP gets a majority
RSP hits the magic 138 to form a government entirely on its own. Balendra Shah wins Jhapa-5, and becomes the new prime minister at 35, the youngest ever to hold the office in Nepal. But danger lurks: there could be a personality clash between Shah and Lamichhane who are both equally ambitious. History could repeat itself.&nbsp;
RSP wins but does not get a majority
RSP is likely to sweep the most votes, but what if it does not secure enough seats for a majority? It would need a coalition partner and Nepali Communist Party (NCP) under Pushpa Kamal Dahal could fit the bill, but only if it has the numbers. The RSP is not likely to team up with the UML or NC.
The NCP is relatively untainted by the 8 September events, and also has former UML defectors like Madhav Kumar Nepal and Bhim Rawal who could bag their rural vote banks. After all, there are no permanent foes in politics. If the royalist RPP and Tarai-based Janata Samajwadi have enough seats, those could be options for the RSP. &nbsp;
NC is second
The NC under the new leadership of Gagan Thapa could become the second biggest force and form a government with RSP in a power-sharing deal with Shah. This would be the most stable scenario since the RSP and NC have competent and idealistic young technocrats. Thapa himself embodies a strong combination of both old and new politics to navigate the system for more efficient government. But then Thapa and the RSP's Rabi Lamichhane do not get along.
NC and NCP form a majority
If the NC becomes the largest party but not by a big margin, it could join up with the NCP and Ujyalo. Teaming up with the UML would likely face backlash with the party and outside. If Gagan Thapa becomes prime minister he will face internal pressure from both Deuba loyalists. Same old story.
Minority coalition of NC, UML and NCP
RSP becomes the first party but does not get a majority, paving the way for the three legacy parties to cobble together a minority government. While this is possible in Nepal’s parliamentary system, such a scenario is likely to lead to more instability and dissatisfaction among young Nepalis demanding change, and even trigger street unrest. &nbsp;

national-archives

Neither side lost, both sides won

Sarlahi-4 nervously watches ballot count

Nepal Election live results

Bells ring all over Nepal

The magic 138