<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111412118/6372219c9c7e80680e0c02c6jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1000" height="662"/>This year’s health budget kept the contribution to health insurance of the previous year's allocation of Rs7.5 billion. However, the plan to hand over the institutional management of health insurance programs to the private sector through the Ministry of Finance defeats the fundamental goal of the health security.This is not entirely surprising, of course, because the Health Ministry had passed a <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/national-health-insurance-not-as-easy,4028">narrow and poorly thought model of health security</a> for Nepal, and there were already concerns that it would eventually be handed over to the private sector and traded as a commodity.A private company can contribute to a health insurance program. But can they really contribute to national public health security, understand equity, expand <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/poor-health-makes-nepalis-poorer/">access to the poorest and the most marginalised</a> population, and negotiate with the government providers for quality services? Are they fundamentally designed to serve the poor?Read also: <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/national-health-insurance-not-as-easy,4028">National health insurance not as easy</a>, Sonia AwaleThe private sector has a role in contributing to achieving Universal Health Coverage by mainly serving the affluent. The poor neither can afford private health insurance nor access expensive private hospitals. Even if they are admitted to hospitals, they have to bear <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/is-free-health-care-possible-in-nepal/">catastrophic expenses</a> pushing them into the vicious cycle of poverty.The private insurance companies only pool the resource, they do not share the risk for those who cannot afford to pay the premium. It will be naïve to assume that such companies could be easily maneuvered to deliver services as a fair-price approach. There are around 20 registered private health insurance companies and 366 private hospitals in Nepal, and some are <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-tries-to-ensure-covid-19-insurance/">selling health insurance at exorbitant premiums</a> many times higher than the current premium cap.There are six national health security indexes: prevent, detect, response, health, norms, and risk. During the pandemic, insurance companies got richer by <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-tries-to-ensure-covid-19-insurance/">selling fake insurance schemes</a> while the hospital profits bulged through expensive Covid treatment. Very few hospitals treated Covid patients with a humanitarian approach. None of their technical advancements helped effectively prevent, detect, and respond to the pandemic.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111412118/6372219f9c7e80680e0c02c7jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1641" height="1000"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>The current health insurance program has identified the elderly, completely disabled, leprosy, Multi-Drug Resistant TB patients, people living with HIV, and ultra-poor as target populations to waive their premium. Though not adequate, this is an equity approach.But none of these target populations are <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/national-health-insurance-not-as-easy,4028">eligible for private health insurance</a>, or they will have to pay a much higher premium. It will be unwise to assume that these companies will change overnight and be equitable. They are powerful enough to influence government policy and have the power to bend them to suit their commercial interests.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/poor-health-makes-nepalis-poorer/">Poor health makes Nepalis poorer</a>, EditorialInstead, the government should <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/health-tip-editorial,4032">strengthen the Health Insurance Board</a> and explore ways to integrate health security with the broader social security scheme. In the short term, there are urgent but straightforward reforms like recruiting adequate and skilled human resources, strengthening the organisational systems, revising the design of service purchase strategy and equity, and gradually, having effective providers/purchasers split for better implementation.Ultimately, the program will benefit by forming a broader and more robust social security structure, co-incidentally introduced at the same time by the government. It would be able to absorb costs by pooling tax-based health care contributions and merging subsidies given to the treatment of cancer, renal failure, and other chorionic diseases under one integrated umbrella.But the current government does not appear serious about <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/health-insurance-must-be-an-election-agenda/">reforming health insurance</a>, and simply does not understand the fundamental principles of health security. Health insurance is not just limited to providing health care, but is a part of broader health security.Read also:  <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/health-tip-editorial,4032">Health tip</a>, EditorialThe idea that health security can be strengthened by passing the buck to the private sector amounts to abandoning the constitutional commitment to provide health care, not as a service but as a citizen's fundamental right. The Nepal government is a signatory to achieving the health targets of the Sustainable Development Goals.As argued by Nepali Congress leader Gagan Thapa, who is one of the pioneers who <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/health-tip-editorial,4032">pushed health insurance</a> in Nepal, they contribute to strengthening the health system, strive for healthy populations, cushion the poor and provide them access to health services. It is a vehicle for mobilising adequate health resources, enhancing health security, and ultimately achieving Universal Health Coverage.These goals cannot be met by trading the people's health as mere commodities.Gaj Gurung has a PhD in public health from Chulalongkorn University and Sushil Koirala is a public health expert. Both are based in Bangkok.Read more: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/is-free-health-care-possible-in-nepal/">Is free health care possible in Nepal?</a> S P Kalaunee

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Dangers of privatising health insurance in Nepal

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114111124/6372175d9c7e80680e0ba9e2jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000"/><figcaption>Photo: BIKRAM RAI/NEPALI TIMES ARCHIVE</figcaption></figure>If Nepalis are to vote on issues rather than personalities in this year’s elections, they should pay attention to the manifesto of the Nepali Congress (NC) which has put an emphasis on the 2017 National Health Insurance Act.It was the NC’s firebrand leader <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/from-nepali-press/Reviving,3589" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Gagan Thapa</a> who pushed that legislation when he served as Health Minister. He is now the party’s general secretary, and sees <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/national-health-insurance-not-as-easy,4028" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">health insurance</a> as a way to improve the access and affordability of quality health care in Nepal.Even for a country like Nepal, universal health coverage is not a distant dream if there is the necessary political will. The Covid-19 pandemic has already made it evident that investing in health care and prevention is central to the well-being of the society with added economic benefits.Many countries in the region have health insurance for their citizens. An example is <a href="https://www.social-protection.org/gimi/gess/RessourcePDF.action?ressource.ressourceId=54059" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Thailand's Universal Health Coverage Scheme</a>, lauded as the best model for a developing country.The Nepal Health Insurance program was initiated to achieve universal health coverage and was one of the key agendas in the 2015 election with widespread political support. The program actually started in 2016 and the Health Insurance Act was enacted in 2017.With Ministry of Finance (MoF) funding, it offers monetary protection to people by paying directly to the service providers’ on-behalf of insured members.In a few years, Nepal’s health insurance program has had a scalable impact. Our 2020 study in the Kaski district showed that in patient expenses of insured families was less than that of non-insured ones, and were also better protected against catastrophic expenses than the non-insured.Broadly, the program aimed to improve the health quality through provider and purchaser split, and by employing a strategic purchasing approach. For instance, in Thailand, the National Health Security Office purchases services for 43 million people independently which has played a large role in improving health care services.Health insurance generates an additional health budget, as it is a pooling mechanism. The MoF has allocated the insurance budget without curtailing the current national health budget.Unfortunately, the insurance scheme design and implementation have been drowned out by political rhetoric resulting in operational ambiguity and erratic implementation. Without a serious political will to strengthen the program, it is likely to come to grief before long.Insured people are dissatisfied with service providers for their historically low-quality services. In fact, the quality of care has worsened in places after the insurance scheme was introduced, resulting in a high drop-out rate.In turn, service providers are frustrated over the Health Insurance Board (HIB)’s sluggish reimbursement process and some have even stopped their facilities. The HIB does not have adequate skilled human resources to speed up the reimbursement, nor has it formulated an efficient service purchase mechanism.The Board has not been able to function as a prudent insurance manager because of the lack of basic organisational policies on human resources, finance, monitoring and evaluation, communication etc. There are also crucial design errors in the insurance program, such as reimbursement strategy, un-equitable premiums, and provider/purchaser split, to name a few.The current program primarily employs fee-for-service (FES) which is a traditional, retrospective and input-based approach with a cumbersome process to review, validation of cost, and payment. The FES was selected despite other programs including <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/is-free-health-care-possible-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">free health service</a> and safer motherhood implementing relatively efficient, output-based and prospective approaches such as capitation.There are also traditional and cultural problems within the MoH, and HIB as a semi-autonomous body does not have the influence or muscle to monitor and negotiate with service providersThe premium amount and benefit package was fixed through very limited study which was a modest Rs2,500 and Rs 50,000 respectively in the beginning, later increased to Rs 3,500 and Rs100,000 but with no scientific basis.This benefit package is quite small for a family of five. The amount gets smaller with increased cost for the high prevalence of non-communicable and chronic diseases in the general population.Apart from the targeted groups (with premium subsidy), the flat premium amount of Rs3,500 for the rest is largely unbalanced. The richest 10% of Nepal's population has more than 26 times the wealth of the poorest 40%. What this means is that while Rs3,500 is peanuts for some households, it could be a monthly household food expense for others.Despite this, the HIB claims that there is no clear provider and purchaser split between MoH and HIB, the former has a high influence on the latter’s organisational structure, as such, many staffing decisions are still pending the ministry’s approval years later.The majority of the HIB staff are seconded from the Ministry of Health,  none of them are health economists or have financial background. Learning by doing is a costly, ineffective and inefficient approach for a high-priority national program.Similarly, the Health Insurance Board is incapable of coordinating with line ministries for the program's effective implementation. For example, the Act has delegated the NIB’s members to standardise service providers' quality control. However, its board is dominated by MoH members.This results in poor service quality, leading to dissatisfaction amongst insured populations and in the high dropout rate and under-utilisation of the services.Nepal’s health insurance program must undergo a serious and urgent reform to prevent it from becoming obsolete:Short to medium term recommendations:<ol><li>HIB needs to develop organisational guidelines to streamline reimbursement. The focus must be on demand generation to enrol rich, healthy and poorest groups equitably.</li> 	<li>The health service purchasing strategy must be reviewed, and this should also guide the structure and human resources needed.</li> 	<li>Private health service providers will inevitably be integrated into the program given the access gaps created by the limited number of public providers. But private providers are often more politically placed and vested interest can put HIB in a weaker negotiating position.</li> 	<li>HIB should develop standards for hospital/PHCC preparedness, provide additional training and incentives for the health workers and develop monitoring tools.</li> 	<li>Integration with other social security funds and health programs will improve efficiency and reduce duplication and wastage. Coordination with these funds will help access data on informal, and formal sector populations and cross-share promising practices particularly on investment.</li> 	<li>HIB should partner with existing research agencies and health economists to conduct studies and use ground-up feedback to reform.</li></ol>Long term recommendations:<ol><li>Premium-based pricing won't be fair or sustainable because of poverty and amidst high informal sector employees. So HIB should look into the possibility of fully tax-funded schemes for the informal sector populations.</li> 	<li>Provider and purchaser split: The provider and purchase split might go through lengthy technical and political discussion after HIB fulfils the majority of short and medium plans eventually. It requires having clear roles and responsibilities between MoH and HIB, understanding of the scope of work and mutual trust.</li></ol>Gaj Gurung is a public health practitioner currently based in Bangkok, Thailand. He has PhD in public health from College of Public Health and Sciences, Chulalongkorn University. His PhD evaluated the Nepal Health Insurance Program implementation fidelity and its effectiveness in reducing the out-of-pocket health expenses amongst insured populations.

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Health insurance must be an election agenda

Nepali Congress (NC) President Gagan Thapa's candidacy in Sarlahi-4 has thrust this Madhes constituency into rare national focus. If Thapa wins and the NC emerges as the largest party, Sarlahi-4 will send Nepal's next prime minister to Parliament. But if he does not, Nepal’s grand old party will face the next years in the opposition to fight another day. There is a troubling paradox in Sarlahi-4 where the district bordering the Indian state of Bihar has been a battleground for national politicians with fierce electoral competition, all while remaining one of the region's most underserved and underdeveloped constituencies.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485.png" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485" data-rendition-name="original" width="1802" height="1276" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: MADHES PAHARA MEDIA</figcaption> </figure>  Ever since Mahant Thakur split from NC in 2008 to form the Tarai Madhes Loktantrik Party, the district has seen rotating political alliances and fragmented votes. Yet, despite 18 years of candidates promising change irrigation schemes remain incomplete, market access for farmers has not improved, unemployment is high.&nbsp; On election day, voters here marked their ballots with fingers stained by dye from the Holi festival the day before. The road leading to Barathawa Bazar was deserted for the most part, except for some youth riding in motorcycles. This is where the high-profile contest between Gagan Thapa and RSP nominee Amresh Singh is being staged. Among the other aspirants is 27-year-old UML candidate Amnish Yadav, the son of former MP Shiv Pujan Yadav. The Yadavs are a political family with considerable caste influence in the constituency. In 2022 Yadav’s daughter Madhumala Yadav received over 14,000 votes here, ranking third overall. Yadav was voted MP from the Maoist party, but defected to the UML this time. His other son is the chair of Sarlahi’s Ramnagar Rural Municipality. Sarhali-4 has 121,012 voters, and the Yadav is banking on the 27,000-strong Yadav vote bank. Sarlahi-4 voter Avishek Sah told us he wanted his vote to go to a young nominee and not someone who has been MP thrice already, like Amresh Singh. &nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10" data-rendition-name="original" width="1200" height="1600" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  To make local loyalties even more complicated, Amnish Yadav’s uncle, Harinder Yadav is an active NC member and walked side by side with Gagan Thapa during his door-to-door campaigns.&nbsp; The NC is betting on Thapa getting over 60% of the total votes. Amresh Singh’s tally could be limited to 10,000 votes — that too because of the nationwide RSP wave, and the popularity of its prime ministerial hopeful Balendra (Balen) Shah. “Amresh Singh lost his appeal when he played victim after he was denied a ticket by the NC in 2022,” Harinder Yadav says. Voters we spoke to here agreed with this assessment that Singh did not do much for the district once he got elected in the past, and being a part of the RSP seems to be his biggest asset. “The only reason I voted for Amresh Singh is because Balen is in RSP,” local voter Mahendra Gupta from Barathawa. &nbsp;“This is his last chance to return the people’s trust.”&nbsp; Gupta is aware of the institutional presence of the NC here. The party received the most votes in 2022 local elections, adding that the candidacy of someone as high-profile as Thapa is a positive sign for Sarlahi-4.&nbsp; Other voters like Ruby Gupta are rooting for both the NC and the RSP. “I will vote for Gagan and for Balen,” she says, adding that her FPTP vote will go to Thapa while her PR ballot would be for the RSP. RSP supporters are confident that their candidate will win big because even though many voters may not have openly voiced their support they still voted for the party and candidate. The Balen Wave was not limited to RSP voters, but also to UML candidate Yadav, who said in a gathering that he will be “the voters Balen” if they elect him. He touted his party’s track record in government, and largely campaigned on administrative efficiency, infrastructural expansion, and local service delivery. Amresh Singh ran on the RSP’s anti-establishment brand, promising to fight corruption, challenge traditional party politics, improve basic services such as education, health, jobs, and infrastructure, while pushing for stronger representation and development for Madhes.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="1200" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo:AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  Singh’s rivalry with his NC competitor goes beyond the ballot— he allegedly blames Thapa for being denied the NC ticket in 2022, which led him to win the election from Sarlahi-4 as an independent. &nbsp; For his part, Gagan Thapa focused on a more pragmatic development agenda that includes upgrading roads and irrigation, improving schools and hospitals, supporting farmers, and creating employment opportunities with improved governance at the centre. He also promised to build an engineering college in the constituency.&nbsp; Thapa also promoted his own anti-establishment image within the NC, repeatedly reminding voters on the campaign trail that he represents the aspirations of the youth.&nbsp; On Thursday, as voting progressed, there were violent disruptions in two centres where voting was briefly halted. But Sarlahi district police spokesperson Saroj Rai told Nepali Times that there were no major problems. Police in collaboration with the Nepal Army sent the ballot papers to the district’s counting stations, where the votes are expected to be tallied through the night and the winner announced Friday morning.

Sarlahi-4 nervously watches ballot count

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Nepal election live results

As this report is uploaded, the latest results in Nepal’s election show that the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) is headed for an even bigger sweep than most had predicted.
The RSP was leading by large margins in 49 of 165 constituencies, &nbsp;with the UML, NC and NCP trailing far behind. Prominent political figures from the old parties like K P Oli, Minwndra Prasad Rijal, Ishwar Pokhrel, Bishnu Prasad Poudel, Bimalendra Nidhi all seem headed for defeat.
It does look like the RSP’s bell election symbol is ringing right across Nepal — from cities to the remotest districts in the mountains and plains. The party’s blue colour is sweeping the land.
The Nepali people seem to have sent a clear message that they were throughly dissatisfied with the chronic failure of the three main parties to work in the national interest to create jobs and deliver development. It was also an expression of lingering outrage over the the 8 September massacre outside Parliament. &nbsp;
It now looks almost certain that Balendra Shah will get to be Nepal’s next, and youngest, prime minister. Hopefully he will be leading a cabinet of competent and honest technocrats. It remains to seen how the power equation between Shah and the RSP’s leader, Rabi Lamichhane will play out.
Lamichhane is out of jail on bail for fraud cases which he has called political vendetta by the previous regime. Both he and Shah are charismatic and ambitious. Their working relationship will determine Nepal's political stability and whether it can avoid the political cronyism of the past.
This election was not just about casting votes. It was about standing up to principles and a value system, and respecting the hopes and aspirations of Nepal’s youth. It to push for transparent government and against impunity — including for the gunning down of young Nepalis in cold blood.
<div class="embed-block"><iframe src="https://election-geo-dashboard.pages.dev/" width="100%" height="600" frameborder="0"> </iframe>Live election results as winners of candidates are announced.</div>
CAN DO MAN
Shah got mixed reviews as mayor. He was impulsive and ad hoc, but most people inKathmandu and beyond liked his can-do attitude and unconventional style which stood in sharp contract to the legacy leaders. Over his three year mayorship he showed more maturity and planning capacity.&nbsp;
But he always ran headlong into opposition from the federal government over his urban planning and other initiatives to make Kathmandu more liveable. Coming from a civil and structural engineering background, he was involved in building low-cost housing after the 2015 earthquake.
But his public persona is more tied to his irreverent rap lyrics that stood up for the marginalised underprivileged in society, while exposing the high-handedness and apathy of the state. But this also exposed contradictions because he also used his own municipal guards to beat and chase away street vendors and squatters.
But there is no doubt that a combination of the sharp messaging in his rap videos amplified by the algorithms of social media ignited Nepal’s youth to rise up. It was more about optics and emotion than policy and strategy.
He studied Kathmandu district for five years, visiting experts in every field before announcing his independent candidacy for mayor in 2022. Many like me in his own constitunecy did not know who he was and where he came from.
He is a year younger than my architect son, and I saw in him a reflection of my own son’s commitment to serving the nation. I voted for him to be mayor despite his sometimes erratic behaviour, which could be attributed to his youth.
The best sign of his strategic planning, which unsettled septuagenarian and octogenarian politicians, is the he did not grab the first easy option of becoming prime minister in September when GenZ activists offered him the post.&nbsp;
Joining RSP was a masterstroke, as was his challenge to Oli in Jhapa to project national branding. He needed a party platform and Lamichhane needed a popular prime ministerial persona since he himself could not hold the post.
Shah has shown the capacity to take risks when he believes the value justifies the action for the country. Now, he will have to show more strategic thinking on a national scale, as well as understand the delicate geopolitics of Nepal.&nbsp;
He must rise above the kind of crude social media posts that earned him followers on X, but did nothing to erase his erratic and impulsive image.&nbsp;
Some assume that behind his trademark RayBan shades is a closet dictator, and his past remarks about Hitler are still up on social media. He has in the past shown impatience with criticism, unleashing supporters on social media to troll detractors.&nbsp;
Even so, the public seems willing to place their hope on an educated young man with integrity and a proven record for planning at the helm. By tomorrow it will be clear whether the hope Nepalis have held has been fulfilled, and the coming years will show if the RSP will lead Nepalis to a better future.
The voters seem to have shown the door even to the NC despite the fact that under Gagan Thapa, the party had turned a new leaf. A strong government under Prime Minister Balendra Shah heading a carefully selected cabinet and a strong opposition of the NC, UML and other parties for check and balance may be just what we need for a stable Nepal.&nbsp;
Nepalis have collectively always shown maturity in elections. This time they have given a resounding endorsement for integrity and for good governance.

Bells ring all over Nepal

After Thursday’s election, Nepalis are in a wait-and-watch mode. The Election Commission says counting ballot papers will be expedited this time, and the results for the First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) will start being declared within days. In 2022, it took three weeks for the final results to be tallied.&nbsp;
But winning an election is only half the challenge for the parties, forming a government under parliamentary politics is like a complicated mathematical equation.&nbsp;
In 2022, the Nepali Congress (NC) emerged as the biggest party, winning 89 seats. But the UML with 78 seats and the Maoists with 32 formed a minority government. In fact, Sher Bahadur Deuba did not become PM then despite leading the biggest party in Parliament.
This time, there is an unmistakeable Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) wave led by its prime ministerial candidate, Balendra Shah. Besides his own popularity, Shah represents change which most Nepalis are clamouring for after decades of corrupt and feckless coalitions that did not deliver.&nbsp;
The past months of campaigning has seen massive youth engagement on social media through memes, AI clips, and viral images. Digital content that appeals to emotion rather than policy debate between candidates shape electoral outcomes in Nepal and elsewhere. &nbsp;
Shah represents GenZ aspirations, and was their candidate for prime minister. It was only when he declined that Sushila Karki was nominated. None of the political parties in the recent past -- new, old, or revolutionary — have won enough seats to go it alone.&nbsp;
The most recent majority government was formed by the short-lived Communist Party of Nepal after the UML-Maoist merger in 2022. But that rare two-thirds majority collapsed after a power struggle between K P Oli and Pushpa Kamal Dahal. The only party to have won a majority was the NC in the 1991 and 1999 elections. But it is near impossible for it to repeat this success now, even with Gagan Thapa's rebranding of the party.&nbsp;
We have compiled these possible scenarios for election outcome in order of likelihood:
RSP gets a majority
RSP hits the magic 138 to form a government entirely on its own. Balendra Shah wins Jhapa-5, and becomes the new prime minister at 35, the youngest ever to hold the office in Nepal. But danger lurks: there could be a personality clash between Shah and Lamichhane who are both equally ambitious. History could repeat itself.&nbsp;
RSP wins but does not get a majority
RSP is likely to sweep the most votes, but what if it does not secure enough seats for a majority? It would need a coalition partner and Nepali Communist Party (NCP) under Pushpa Kamal Dahal could fit the bill, but only if it has the numbers. The RSP is not likely to team up with the UML or NC.
The NCP is relatively untainted by the 8 September events, and also has former UML defectors like Madhav Kumar Nepal and Bhim Rawal who could bag their rural vote banks. After all, there are no permanent foes in politics. If the royalist RPP and Tarai-based Janata Samajwadi have enough seats, those could be options for the RSP. &nbsp;
NC is second
The NC under the new leadership of Gagan Thapa could become the second biggest force and form a government with RSP in a power-sharing deal with Shah. This would be the most stable scenario since the RSP and NC have competent and idealistic young technocrats. Thapa himself embodies a strong combination of both old and new politics to navigate the system for more efficient government. But then Thapa and the RSP's Rabi Lamichhane do not get along.
NC and NCP form a majority
If the NC becomes the largest party but not by a big margin, it could join up with the NCP and Ujyalo. Teaming up with the UML would likely face backlash with the party and outside. If Gagan Thapa becomes prime minister he will face internal pressure from both Deuba loyalists. Same old story.
Minority coalition of NC, UML and NCP
RSP becomes the first party but does not get a majority, paving the way for the three legacy parties to cobble together a minority government. While this is possible in Nepal’s parliamentary system, such a scenario is likely to lead to more instability and dissatisfaction among young Nepalis demanding change, and even trigger street unrest. &nbsp;

national-health-insurance

Dangers of privatising health insurance in Nepal

Health insurance must be an election agenda

Sarlahi-4 nervously watches ballot count

Nepal election live results

Bells ring all over Nepal

The magic 138