<img width="2000" height="2083" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114131148/637239939c7e80680e0c73edjpeg.jpg" alt=""/>Two books released this week deal prominently with the Kalapani border dispute between Nepal and India, and both eschew jingoism for historical records and present pragmatic ways to resolve this bilateral irritant.In National Security and the State: A Focus on Nepal, retired Brig-Gen Keshar Bahadur Bhandari of the Nepal Army uses Kalapani as bookends in his foreword and epilogue. Now more than ever before, he says, Nepal needs to devise and follow a national security doctrine if it is to survive between the world’s two most populous countries.In Nepal-India Border Disputes: Mahakali and Susta edited by Pitamber Sharma, a slew of cartographers, geographers, historians and even a hydrologist pore into colonial era maps and treaties to explore why Kalapani-Lipulekh-Limpiyadhura became disputed in the first place.Read together, the two books present ideas about how Nepal can navigate the treacherous geopolitics of being a country of 30 million squeezed between two Goliaths on either side with 2.6 billion peoples.Nepal’s founding king Prithvi Narayan Shah already had a national security policy that he set forth in his Dibya Upadesh 250 years ago with the ‘Yam Doctrine’. The only difference is that today Nepal is a tuber betwixt three boulders, not just two.The most direct impact of this was felt in the last three years when Nepal’s politicians went at each other with hammers and tongs, weaponising the MCC, and in the process offending all three powers: the United States, China, India.Bhandari’s recommendation is that Nepal has no option but to follow another one of king Prithvi’s guiding security principles: ‘Jai katak nagarnu, jhikikatak garnu’ (Don’t provoke needlessly, but be ready to defend.)Reading the historical recaps in National Security and the State, it becomes clear that the threat to Nepal’s national security since the Gurkha Conquest in 1769, and especially after 1816, was not so much from belligerent neighbours, but from within the royal court in Kathmandu itself.The royal families and their courtiers were entangled in endless conspiracies, vengeance and violence. The constant back-stabbing periodically erupted in ‘front-stabbing’ in the Bhandarkhal and Kot massacres, and even the murder of the royals in 2001.The Shah and Rana dynasties were historically prone to feuds over succession, and some of this was because of the promiscuity of monarchs who begat progeny from multiple queens and concubines. Courtiers and advisers took sides, and rival regent queens appealed for support from the East India Company via the British Resident.In that respect, contemporary politics in the Federal Democratic Republic of Nepal is not much different, as politically promiscuous leaders openly seek patronage of powerful actors in Delhi or Beijing in their in-house power struggles.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/the-india-nepal-china-geopolitical-tri-junction/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">The India-Nepal-China geopolitical tri-junction</a>, Kunda DixitBhandari compares the security doctrine of other small states like Israel which punch above their weight, but says also-landlocked Mongolia could be a more appropriate model for Nepal: ‘What China is to Mongolia, India is to Nepal … what Russia is to Mongolia, China is to Nepal.’Unlike Nepal, which is vulnerable due to its overwhelming economic dependence on India, Mongolia has created a ‘third neighbour’ to boost its economic security, the author argues. <figure><img width="1280" height="719" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114131148/637239969c7e80680e0c73eejpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Nepal is not a ‘small’ country, it is just small compared to its giant neighbours. When it became the oldest nation state in South Asia two-and-half centuries ago, there were only 22 other countries in the world, and today it is the 40th most populous in the world. Bhandari dissects the term ‘nation-state’, and puts forth the argument that because of its ethnic diversity Nepal is actually a ‘state-nation’. As someone who was also involved in peacekeeping operations in Afghanistan, the author wants steps to be taken to prevent potential ethno-cultural conflict in Nepal. Although there are chapters on the Nepal Army, and especially its conduct during the Maoist insurgency, the book expands the definition of national security beyond the military to also refer to political stability, economic security, cyber security, human security and even climate security. The reader could wonder why Nepal even needs a national army when it may not be much of a deterrence against foreign invasion. Like Costa Rica, it could free up a chunk of its budget to resolve precursors to internal conflict like social injustice, inequity and poor governance. National Security and the State is a largely objective assessment of Nepal’s security concerns, but on some issues Brig-Gen Bhandari does take a stance. He postulates that Nepal might still be a monarchy if the Comprehensive Peace Accord of 2006 was between the Maoists and the Royal Nepal Army, instead of with the 7-party Alliance. He also has strong views on regulating the 1,880km India-Nepal open border because ‘it has done more bad and good to Nepal … exacerbating security problems’. He also maintains that secularism was covertly added into the 2015 Constitution, and that: ‘The cause of Hindu religion would protect many of Nepal’s national security interests.’ Going by the intolerance and polarity in India today, Nepal may have to think twice about importing insecurity from the South. The ‘soft power’ of religion may not do much to firm up Nepal’s ‘soft state’. The border dispute with India is one of Nepal’s major security concerns, and Nepal-India Border Disputes: Mahakali and Susta tries to put the matter to rest with chapters by Nepali experts including geographer Mangal Siddhi Manandhar, former government secretary Dwarika Nath Dhungel, geodetic engineer Prabhakar Sharma, and historian Tri Ratna Manandhar. As geography professor and former head of the National Planning Commission Pitamber Sharma concludes in his overview, ‘The boundary issues between Nepal and India can be settled only by the strict obedience of the Sugauli Treaty.’ Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/territorialism/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Territorialism</a>, Editorial That treaty between the British East India Company and the Gorkha Empire signed in 1816 shrank Nepal to territory west of the Mechi and east of the Mahakali rivers. But the treaty did not have a map, and it was left to interpretation which was the main flow of the Mahakali at its upper reaches in the tri-junction between Nepal, India and China. This compilation makes a case for Nepal’s claim, but does so without falling into the nationalistic trap, presenting an objective analysis of why and where the boundary was changed. The conclusion: disputes over the river borders at Kalapani and Susta are a legacy of British India. As Dwarika Dhungel points out in his chapter, early maps showed the Kali River originating in Limpiyadhura but the British later found that there was a much easier trade route to Tibet for the import of valuable shatoosh baby antelope wool along a tributary to Lipu Pass. They then surreptitiously manipulated their survey maps to first cover up the Kali (Kuti Yangdi) and then show Lipu Khola as the main river, shifting the border eastwards. Dhungel notes: ‘How a lesser stream could be recognised as the main branch of the Kali is beyond any logic.’ If trade was the main preoccupation for Britain, for independent India it was the strategic importance of Lipu Pass — especially after the border war with China in 1962. King Mahendra allowed the Indian Army to ‘temporarily’ stay in Kalapani, and it appears to have been historical Nepali indifference by local authorities as well as faraway Kathmandu that allowed the Indians to stay put. With Susta, the reason for the dispute is the shifting main channel of the Gandak westwards, and came to the fore in the 1960s. Nearly 40sq km of what was once Nepali territory now lies in India if one is to accept the joint Nepal-Britain Rozar Martin maps of 1817. It is clear that colonial Britain pushed the Kalapani boundary for its trade interest and left India to deal with the consequences with Nepal, which it is doing to this day. The border issue is then used by politicians in both Kathmandu and New Delhi to wave the populist flag from time to time. China’s past border agreements with India on Lipulekh have shown that Nepal cannot rely on Beijing for support.   In the epilogue to National Security and the State, Brig-Gen Bhandari urges Nepali leaders to use ‘proper lobbying and persuasive pressure’ to either make Kalapani a peace buffer, or to swap it, as example, for a permanent highway corridor from the southeast tip of Nepal to Bangladesh through Indian territory. His advice: ‘Since a small state cannot change its neighbours, it has to learn to live with them … more so Nepal can bring the two neighbours with diverse political and sociocultural values closer for a common and great economic interest.’   Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-needs-intelligent-intelligence/">Nepal needs intelligent intelligence</a>, Dipak Gurung National Security and the State: A Focus on NepalBy Keshar Bahadur BhandariNepa-laya, 2022426 pages, Rs 995Also available through Thuprai and Amazon <img width="1000" height="1178" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114131148/637239999c7e80680e0c73efjpeg.jpg" alt=""><img width="640" height="754" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114131148/6372399b9c7e80680e0c73f0jpeg.jpg" alt=""> Nepal-India Border Disputes: Mahakali and SustaEdited With an Introduction by Pitamber SharmaMandala Book Point, 2022192 pages, Rs 1,595Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/stories-of-nepals-summiteers/">Stories of Nepal’s summiteers</a>, Ashish Dhakal

Kunda Dixit

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A survival strategy for Nepal

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221107101156/6368d6819c7e80680e03148ajpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1400" height="1254"/><figcaption>Bhanu Bhattarai</figcaption></figure>Across the world, from the Philippines to the United States, and in Central European countries like Hungary and Poland, we have seen worrying signs of democratic reversal. Even in open societies like the UK, Germany, France and India there has been a recent ascendance of the racist right.Extremism and populism have taken centre-stage as demagogues whip up xenophobia and bigotry to get elected in democracies that are abandoning a rule-based society. They are systematically gagging the free press,<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=18837#.Wv1qyu6FPIU" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> using the power of the social web</a> to spread hate and lies, and encouraging violent extremism. Hungary’s Viktor Orbán boastfully calls his country an ‘illiberal democracy’. Using the Trump administration as a shield, Israel is mowing down Palestinians. Cambodia has just sold its last independent newspaper to a Malaysian tycoon.The decline is not isolated, and it is not a temporary occurrence. The Freedom in the World Report 2018 notes that political freedom is in retreat across the globe. More than 70 countries have seen declines in political and civil rights in recent years, and there were gains in only half that number of nations.The only recent silver lining is Malaysia, where the people last week voted out a brazenly corrupt and openly racist cabal, even though the electoral system had been rigged, and the judiciary coopted, to bring back 92-year-old Mahathir Mohamad.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/?p=6146&amp;preview=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> The crow and the scarecrow</a>, Om Astha RaiHopefully, Malaysia’s example will spread, and send a message to those struggling against despots: sooner or later democracy will prevail.Even so, in many Asian countries today there is open admiration for China’s economic growth and the Singapore miracle. This has led to a growing attraction for strong-man rule. Political and civil liberties are seen to be putting the cart before the horse, and freedom is seen as a luxury that is keeping people poor. The emphasis is on economic and cultural rights, and citizens are asked to <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/The-right%20-to-have-rights,2656" target="_blank" rel="noopener">give up their basic freedoms while waiting to prosper</a>. The state’s priority has become national security, fighting terrorism, stopping migration, to ensure stability and prosperity.All this is now getting to sound disturbingly familiar in Nepal where the slogan of the ruling coalition that was elected last year is ‘<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/into-a-state-of-uncertain-stability-nepal,4068" target="_blank" rel="noopener">prosperity through stability</a>’. The alliance is made up of a <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/a-two-party-state,3968" target="_blank" rel="noopener">moderate leftist party</a> named after Marx and Lenin which on Thursday, merged with former communist rebels who are inspired by Mao.The UML changed its spots to espouse the People’s Multi-party Democracy line, but the CPN-MC did not convincingly abandon its <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=6258#.Wv100-6FPIU" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ideology of revolutionary violence</a>. It wanted the <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/the-spark-that-lit-the-Maoist-revolution,2870" target="_blank" rel="noopener">People’s War</a> to be glorified and enshrined in the guiding principles of the new Nepal Communist Party. There is no move towards <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-struggle-for-transitional-justice/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">transitional justice</a>, <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/justice-delayed-justice-denied-transitional-justice,3556" target="_blank" rel="noopener">or to say sorry</a>.Read Also: <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/a-trump-world-us-nepal,3359" target="_blank" rel="noopener">A Trump world</a>, Om Astha RaiRecently, we saw how easily both parties as well as the NC, now in the opposition, were held hostage by their own appointee to the anti-corruption commission as he terrorised the press and dismantled the rule of law for three years. The warning to us is that <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/Legalese/The-charade-of-impeachment,801" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Lokman Singh Karki</a> can easily happen again.Communists are guided by the principle of ‘democratic centralism’ which is an antithesis to federalism and devolution. And the ruling coalition is doing just that: centralising power in the PMO. The recently released draft National Integrity Policy, while seeking to lay legitimate ground rules for the conduct of public officials and outside agencies, has some disturbing provisions.As we report in this edition, the restrictions appear to be guided by the perception of aggressive proselytisation and donor funding for indigenous and excluded groups during the Constitution-drafting process.Read Also: <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/On-the-way-up/who-teaches-democracy,1020" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Who teaches us democracy?</a>, Kanak Mani DixitThere may have been a need to regulate the proliferation of NGOs, and the government does need to keep track of where <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/half-full/capacity-for-development-half-full,1110" target="_blank" rel="noopener">outside funds go</a>. But some of the points in the draft are so open-ended that they seem intended for control rather than regulation. The government now wants only foreign assistance in ‘hardware’ and not ‘software’, and is turning away aid on anything to do with inclusion, human rights and democracy.Given the spread of illiberal democracy around the world, there is reason to be worried that ‘stability and prosperity’ could be a euphemism for control, and silencing dissent.Read Also: <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/The-turning-point-war-nepal,3986" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The turning point</a>, Kunda Dixit

Illiberal ills

The monsoon has got bad press because Nepal’s tourism operators actively told visitors to avoid <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/managing-the-monsoon?%2F">the rainy season</a>. It is time to change that. The reason can be found right here in the vast alpine meadows of Central Nepal where this time of year you can walk on velvet grass of pastures abloom with delicate pink, red and yellow flowers as the mist rolls up the valley. There is no sound except the hum of bumble bees. &nbsp;&nbsp; There are dozens of places across high Nepal called Chaurikharka, which means yak pasture. But this particular Chaurikharka in Rukum East located at an altitude of 4,000m stands out for its serene beauty, rustic charm and bucolic setting. There is just the occasional chime of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/when-yaks-go-so-does-culture">yak bells</a> in the distance, and the sharp whistle of herders corralling sheep. &nbsp;&nbsp; The grass shoots are so fragile that one hesitates to step on them, the rounded ridges appear and quickly vanish in waves of mist. With the<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/before-the-next-monsoon"> arrival of monsoon</a>, these meadows are a soothing shade of green dotted with millions of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/review/the-anatomy-of-a-flower?%2F=">multi-coloured flowers</a>. Until very recently, it took a week or so to hike up to places like Chaurikharka, but with the expansion of the road network even to these far-flung mountains in the lap of Dhaulagiri, they are much more accessible. It is just a three-hour uphill from the Mid-Hill Highway on the border between Baglung and Rukum East.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250802130828_a0b06b494d751b2144ffbbf10894ea64b29e8aed844bc8c66171783abfaf4e16.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20250802130828_a0b06b494d751b2144ffbbf10894ea64b29e8aed844bc8c66171783abfaf4e16" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1365" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon"> </figure>  Purists would say that such easy access devalues the sanctity of these remote high meadows, but it also means more people will be moved to treasure the experience, appreciate <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/natures-fragile-gift-to-nepal">the value of nature </a>so they can take steps to protect it.&nbsp; To be sure, the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/deadly-monsoon-in-nepal-turns-deadlier">monsoon season can be challenging for road travel</a>. The roads are rough even at the best of times, and in the monsoon they become muddy and treacherous, often blocked by<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/monsoon-deluge-in-nepal"> landslides</a>. But that could be precisely the kind of adventure that the more intrepid visitors crave. Improved road connectivity has already made Chaurikharka and places like Badimallika &nbsp;and other sacred lakes in the mountains of western Nepal popular with domestic tourists. What is driving this traffic is the urge to go to exotic new places and share videos and selfies on social media. Several of Nepal’s travel vloggers have visited Chaurikharka and popularised the place, enticing followers on TikTok or YouTube to retrace their footsteps. But even as they become more popular, these fragile and once-remote places should be protected from over-tourism.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110736_f97110b7cdc3e7f80d5877690948fc9f4c95a09c583deb23b07355491e6c5446.jpg" data-media-id="editor_8" data-image-id="20250731110736_f97110b7cdc3e7f80d5877690948fc9f4c95a09c583deb23b07355491e6c5446" data-rendition-name="original" width="1083" height="699" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon NT"> </figure>  <h2>INCREASING FOOTFALL</h2> Chaurikharka is located in Bhume Rural Municipality of East Rukum, near the scenic valley of Dhorpatan in Baglung district. Even in the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/monsoon-culture">middle of the monsoon</a>, there is a steady stream of Nepali hikers trooping to these high pastures – especially during festival days like Saune Sankranti which this year was on 17 July and actually marks the auspicious beginning of the monsoon here. “This year the rains have not been as heavy and there have been some clear mornings when we could see everything from Dhaulagiri to Machapuchre,” says Khageswar Bhandari, who trekked up here from the road. “The flowers, the greenery and the snowy mountain views make this an incredibly unique place.”&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250802130824_1b9e26f2e9853fdfe69154bb42a7c9ea6da4bf4940efc1da99b304dcfbd7d3d9.jpg" data-media-id="editor_10" data-image-id="20250802130824_1b9e26f2e9853fdfe69154bb42a7c9ea6da4bf4940efc1da99b304dcfbd7d3d9" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1152" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon"> </figure>  Chaurikharka is worthwhile to get to in any season, but it has a different charm during the monsoon. Word has spread and because it is now easy to get to from Baglung or even Pokhara, people have been flocking here.&nbsp; “Holidays and Saturdays see the largest crowds, with up to 500 visitors every day,” says ward chair Mankaji Pun of Bhume.&nbsp; There was a time not too long ago when local herders brought sheep, goats, cows, buffaloes, horses, and mules to graze here during the monsoon. Although there are still livestock around, animals have been replaced by visitors taking selfies. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-monsoon-and-nature-s-arithmetic">The monsoon, and nature’s arithmetic</a>, Tom Robertson Ward Chair Pun says infrastructure development is his main priority. A foot trail to Chaurikharka was built last year by the Tourism Division Office in Kohalpur, but access via the Raniwas-Koipa road section still remains challenging.&nbsp; “If we get more budget, we can improve the road and facilities to make Chaurikharka the main tourist attraction of this region,” says Bhume Municipality Chair Hom Prakash Shrestha. “After that, we hope to promote Chaurikharka as a top tourist spot.”&nbsp; Economic activity is also picking up with the arrival of visitors, but there seems to be a need to manage the makeshift sheds made of corrugated sheets that spoil the beauty of the place. Tea shops and lodges are also available but facilities are basic. Kuldeep Neupane took a three-day trip from Ghorahi in Dang to visit Chaurikharka recently, and says: “This is an ideal trip to make a quick getaway and let nature recharge your mind and body. And it is much more fun with a tent, to watch the sunrise over the Himalaya or the mist blowing in.”

Visit Nepal in the monsoon

Two weeks ago, Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli announced jubilantly on social media that Nepal had achieved a historic annual growth of 81.8% in exports. He was right. Nepal’s trade did take a great leap forward compared to last year. But the dramatic rise was mainly due to processed soya bean oil.&nbsp; However, Nepal does not produce the edible oil it exports. In fact, the soya and palm oil that make up 44% of total exports are imported from Southeast Asia and South America, and simply re-exported, mostly to India.&nbsp; Under the SAFTA (South Asian Free Trade Area) Agreement, Nepal can export products to India duty-free if it has at least 30% value-added. Nepal’s traders have taken advantage of SAFTA even though the edible oils they export do not reach that value addition threshold. “The 30% value addition requirement is often only on paper,” says former commerce secretary Purushottam Ojha. “It is clear that simply packaging edible oils in Nepal does not fulfil the terms of the trade agreement.” Prime Minister Oli is aware of this, and even called Nepal’s export figures “fake” at an earlier event. The government is relying on other iffy figures to suggest that Nepal’s economy is strong and getting stronger. For example, the value of imports rose by 13.25% in 2024-25 compared to the previous fiscal year.&nbsp; Some of it was due to a jump in electric vehicle imports worth Rs 31.76 billion, but mostly it was because more wholesale soya oil was imported to be re-packaged and sold in India. The very fact that the government boasts about increased imports is an indication of how much it relies on taxing them for revenue. Touting such trade figures cannot be the basis to claim an economic rebound.&nbsp; “A jump in the value of imports can be interpreted as an increase in purchasing power, but it is not evidence of a stronger economy,” says economist Keshav Acharya. “Even though imports have increased, Nepal's domestic production and productive capacity have not improved.” Nepal Rastra Bank's semi-annual economic activity study report shows that industrial production was down in the first six months of the last fiscal year. This despite an increase in the number of new industries registered and investment commitments. Out of the Rs70.2 billion proposed foreign investment, Nepal received only Rs17.9 billion last year.&nbsp; Meanwhile, the rate of capital formation was limited to 24% last year, which is lower than the year before, suggesting that new investment, job creation and economic expansion all declined. If domestic production does not improve in relation to this year’s inflated trade figures, the outflow will put pressure on foreign exchange reserves like it did three years ago. At that time, Nepal borrowed from the IMF under its Extended Credit Facility Program to kickstart the economy.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025080710084_2cdaaa5795828c4a7de93a0604ba884ef0a8b8f24cccd939f6c24e279ab6058f.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="2025080710084_2cdaaa5795828c4a7de93a0604ba884ef0a8b8f24cccd939f6c24e279ab6058f" data-rendition-name="original" width="1633" height="723" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal's bubble economy NT"> <figcaption>Source: NEPAL RASTRA BANK</figcaption> </figure>  The macroeconomy is on firm footing with foreign exchange reserves at a comfortable Rs2,520 billion in May, up 23% from last year. This was largely due to remittances, and partly due to a falling NPR exchange rate. Real estate transactions and the stock market index have also been climbing as a result of government policies to revive the sector.&nbsp; However, former executive director of Nepal Rastra Bank Nar Bahadur Thapa cautions: “This is not organic growth, it is the result of deliberate policy decisions to relax rules on real estate and stock markets transactions.” In reality, the sharp rise in land prices have increased the cost of production, and excessive monetisation of the real estate has become the main source of Nepal’s economic woes. The central bank has announced a slew of new policies, shifting the terms of loan repayment for industrialists and entrepreneurs, reducing interest rates, and injecting more working capital — all designed to inject adrenaline into the real estate and stock market sectors.&nbsp; When he was governor, Mahaprasad Adhikari made several financial reforms during the latter half of his tenure to stimulate the economy, including tightening credit flow.&nbsp; By the last fiscal year, additional financial reforms had resulted in a credit expansion rate of around 8%. As the pace of credit expansion slows, real estate prices have started to fall. This is actually beneficial to the economy, because it lays the foundation for improvements in land-related entrepreneurship, production, and the construction sector. Just because real estate and the stock market transactions increase, it does not indicate an economic turnaround — especially when manufacturing and productive sector continues to languish.&nbsp; “It is foolish to believe that real estate and the stock market have magically revived our economy. Agriculture employs more than half of the population, but it is in decline. Investment in the productive sector has not increased, and job creation has not increased.” Two years ago, Nepal’s industrialists, business leaders, and political leadership predicted a recession amidst a sluggish business, declining market demand, large-scale job loss, and a shrinking real estate and share market.&nbsp; Still, the economy grew by 3.36% in fiscal year 2023/24. In fact, Nepal’s economy has grown nominally over the last two decades even when all sectors of the economy are in decline.&nbsp; Says Keshav Acharya: “The growth in trade, real estate, and the stock market are bubbles. The real economy remains stagnant.”

Nepal’s bubble economy

The final investigation report on the crash of a Saurya Airlines jet on 24 July 2024 at Kathmandu airport has revealed flaws in the carrier’s technical operation procedures, poor monitoring by the Civil Aviation Authority of Nepal (CAAN) and gaps in the airport’s emergency response. Eighteen people including a child were killed, and only the captain survived as the plane plunged seconds after takeoff, crashing within the airport perimeter. This was the latest in a series of aircraft accidents in previous years, and further tarnished Nepal’s already poor aviation safety record and contributed to the country being retained in the EU’s air safety list. &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; The circumstances in the Saurya crash were different from the Yeti Airlines crash in Pokhara in January 2022 that killed all 72 on board, and two Tara Air crashes in February 2016 and May 2022 on approach to Jomsom that together claimed 45 lives. However, all four tragedies were a result of negligence of carriers and crew, failure to follow procedures, regulatory slackness, and overconfidence. The Saurya crash, especially, was a glaring example of how an ailing airline broke its own rules to allow passengers, including non-employees, a joy ride to Pokhara on a maintenance ferry flight. CRASH REPORT The Final Investigation Report prepared by the Aircraft Accident Investigation Commission and released on the first anniversary of the crash last week carried a long list of rules that were ignored or broken, and of regulatory failure. The first mistake was to cram spares, tools and inflammable chemicals needed for the aircraft’s C-Check in Pokhara into the cargo hold flouting its own ground handling procedures.&nbsp; There was no check-in of passengers, some of whom were not even employees – even though regulations say only flight and maintenance crew should be on board a maintenance positioning flight. Many brought their own luggage into the plane and stored it unsecured in the cabin. There was no flight attendant to give a safety briefing to passengers. The load and trim charts given to the flight crew were rough estimates, and the total takeoff weight of the plane was 18,300kg plus or minus 200 kg. That would still have been all right, but there was a glaring mistake in the speedchart Saurya pilots were using to calculate the minimum takeoff speed (known as VR), and it had been wrong ever since the 21-year-old aircraft entered service with the airline in 2017. FAULTY DATA&nbsp; The Commission probed Flight Data Recorder inputs from previous takeoffs of the Canadian-built CRJ200-LR in 2023-2024 and found that the undetected error in the speedchart had caused the plane to pitch up at an abnormal rotation rate at least 18 times on previous takeoffs.&nbsp; Any rotation rate more than 3°/sec is regarded as unusual. But on at least two occasions, this aircraft with tail number 9N-AME had rotation rates of 5.8°/sec and 5.5°/sec, the second one was when the pilot who survived was flying in March 2024.&nbsp; On this particular day, the plane’s rotation rate was 6.5°/sec, causing it to go into a deep stall soon after takeoff, the Commission report said. Essentially, the plane was not flying fast enough down the runway to take off safely.&nbsp; It is not yet clear whether excess weight, unsecured luggage, wrong centre of gravity were also factors, but relying on a faulty speedchart for the given takeoff weight, the captain flying pulled back on the yoke before the plane had reached takeoff speed and at a pitch angle that was too steep. The investigation report says the plane then went into a deep stall and started banking right with the stick shaking. At this point, the flight officer on the right hand seat is heard on the cockpit voice recorder saying: “Whoa, whoa, whoa. Sir, Sir, Sir…” It then banked left before the pilot flying turned the plane sharply to the right again in an evasive action to avoid the parking aprons of the international and domestic terminals. Had he not done so, there would have been a disaster of a much greater magnitude at Kathmandu airport that day. The plane scraped the runway with its right wingtip, collided with a container having helicopter spare parts, and plunged into a gully east of the runway, exploding in a fireball. The investigation also noted that the impact forces seemed to be survivable for some occupants. The fire trucks took unnecessarily long to reach the site even though it was inside the airport perimeter. The absence of an ICAO-standard runway strip, inadequate rescue drills, lack of training, and a blocked emergency service gate leading to the crash site were cited as other factors. &nbsp;&nbsp; <h2>Timestamp of a Disaster</h2>  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110724_39cdd04693994ce6e55a5b302905c0fa4884fe85bed21ff0779bb1439f3a5725.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20250731110724_39cdd04693994ce6e55a5b302905c0fa4884fe85bed21ff0779bb1439f3a5725" data-rendition-name="original" width="778" height="826" loading="lazy" alt="Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy NT"> </figure>  11:10:34 - The Saurya Airlines CRJ200 on the takeoff roll from runway 02. It had a takeoff weight of about 18,300kg, but the pilot’s speedcard had a previously undetected mistake about the minimum takeoff speed. 11:10:55 -The plane with tail number 9N-AME goes into deep stall soon after takeoff because it does not have enough speed to lift its weight. The plane also has an abnormally steep nose-up attitude.&nbsp; 11:11:03 - Without enough speed to generate lift, the plane banks right, then left and right again in CCTV photos taken from the domestic apron (below). If it had not banked right, it could have hit the aprons and terminal buildings. Seen parked is Saurya’s other CRJ200 with tail number 9N-ANM.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110732_608132f7225c649125cca2691dd6a6bf930984c5b359e888d7ad9e5eacce3afd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20250731110732_608132f7225c649125cca2691dd6a6bf930984c5b359e888d7ad9e5eacce3afd" data-rendition-name="original" width="770" height="555" loading="lazy" alt="Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy NT"> </figure>  11:11:08 - The plane scrapes the runway with its right wingtip, and falls into the gully. The captain is thrown off the left side of the cockpit and survives. 11:11:15: Plane explodes in a fireball inside the airport perimeter. Firefighters take time to reach the site because of lack of access road and a blocked gate. Read the full investigation report <a href="https://www.tourism.gov.np/files/9N-AME%20AIC%20Final%20Report.pdf">here</a>.

Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy

American artist Peter Makela was in Nepal in 2022 on a Fulbright scholarship when he experienced the Matya festival in Patan in which devotees made the rounds of the city’s shrines.&nbsp;
He joined the procession, walking through 2,600 stupa and 140 bahal of the town. That immersion left a lasting impression.
As part of Gallery Mcube’s international residency program in Patan, he put his inspiration to canvas in the exhibition Yala Yatra: Walking, Working, Worshipping. The exhibition also coincides with this month’s Matya festival.&nbsp;
Makela has visited Nepal often in the past 11 years but he mostly stayed in and spent his time around Boudha. “This time I stayed in Patan, put the sites I wanted to visit on my map, and off I went,” he tells us. “Each of my artwork is inspired by the stupas and shrines in Patan that I visited.”
The stupa and Ganesh are recurring motifs in his watercolours, and the elephant gods are located in chaityas — reflecting the interplay and blending of the Hindu and Buddhist faiths in Kathmandu Valley.&nbsp;
The stupas and Ganesh are painted in vivid red, yellow, blue and green against abstract backgrounds meant to represent the sky.
“I use the sky as a backdrop because the sky has no border,” says Makela. “The four colours represent the four elements, the different Buddha families and also lights bouncing off of a rainbow.”
The use of just four colours for all the artwork stands out, and combined with the absence of heavy canvases, frames or stands render Makela’s art striking in its simplicity.&nbsp;
The Ganesh is always holding something and the art also portrays the elephant god’s sacred vehicle, the mouse.
While his vibrant stupas and Ganesh reflect the tangibility of Patan’s tradition and heritage, it is as if the backdrops with their shades of grey and red and yellow capture the soul of the city’s shrines.
“If you look closely, there is a sense of form and formlessness at the same time,” he says.&nbsp;
Makela walked 108 kora around the shrines during his exploration of the town, and in the process developed a spiritual connection with Patan’s heritage and traditions.&nbsp;
The exhibition connects with visitors on a deeper, more spiritual, level as well. And with it, they feel a sense of pride as well as the need to urgently preserve Patan’s heritage for future generations.
“Peter’s inclination and approach towards Nepali art and culture is fascinating, and it reflects in his work,” says Mcube curator Manish Lal Shrestha, whose international artist residency program promotes Nepal’s cultural heritage. &nbsp;&nbsp;
Yala Yatra: Walking, Working, Worshipping
1-5 August&nbsp;
10AM-7PM
Gallery Mcube, Patan

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Walking, working, worshipping in Patan