Nepal’s consumer inflation reached 8.19% in mid-September compared to 8.64% last year, latest Nepal Rastra Bank figures show.
Food and beverage inflation hit 9.74%, and non-food and service sector prices increased by 6.99% during the review period. The highest costs hit low and lower-middle-income families especially hard during Dasain.
The only saving grace is remittances from Nepali abroad, where even the official inflow figures through banks and registered exchanges have increased to record levels.
The cost of spices (especially important items at festival time) went up by a whopping 45.46%. There is a severe shortage of sugar in the market, and even when available it is 17.86% costlier than last year. Vegetable prices rose 14.51%, and the price of milk and eggs are up 12.6%. Ghee is the only commodity for which the price has declined: by 13.08%.
Read Also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/business-not-happy-with-the-imf">Business not happy with the IMF</a>, Ramesh Kumar
Prices in the entertainment and culture sub-category have also increased by 15.55%— with miscellaneous goods and services going up by 12.21%, education 9.10%, household goods 8.11%, as well as furniture and household appliances by 6.59%.
While the inflation rate remains high, wages and salaries have not kept pace. The salary and wage rate index increased 5.25% in mid-September compared to 11.68% a year ago.
The government’s expenditure was Rs131.14 billion while revenue collection amounted to Rs141.08 billion. Gross foreign exchange reserves have also increased by 3.9%, mainly due to remittances and lower imports. Remittance inflow increased by 22.1% to Rs.228.37 billion compared to a 19.8% increase in the same period last year.
Meanwhile, Nepal’s current account and balance of payments were both in surplus during the first two months of fiscal year 2023/2024. The current account shows a surplus of Rs23.5 billion compared to a deficit of Rs36.84 billion during the same period last fiscal year while the BoP had a surplus of Rs53.61 billion by mid-September against a deficit of Rs 20.81 billion during the same time last year. &nbsp;

original

674x448

610x380

500x500

400x266

400x240

400x203

301x200

Bada Inflation at Bada Dasain

In a move more reminiscent of the days of IMF structural adjustment conditionalities in Latin America, Nepal’s business community has bristled at what it called “interference” by the International Monetary Fund in Nepal’s domestic economic policy.
In January 2022, the IMF &nbsp;granted Nepal concessional loans worth $395.9 million under its Extended Credit Facility (ECF) following multiple discussions with Finance Ministry officials in Kathmandu under the previous government. &nbsp;
At the time, Nepali officials were alarmed at pandemic-induced fall in foreign exchange reserves and increasing current account deficit due to high imports, and agreed to accept the IMF’s conditional loan which extends until February 2025.
&nbsp;The conditions included deep reforms to Nepal's financial system, and public finance management, including amending the law to make Nepal Rastra Bank autonomous, a banking regulatory mechanism, preparing a blueprint to prevent misuse of loans, conducting external audits of the ten big commercial banks, and maintaining transparency by making tax exemptions granted by the government available to the public.
&nbsp;In the past, those closely associated with Nepal’s communist parties have criticised global financial institutions like the World Bank and the IMF for their pursuit of ‘neoliberal and imperialistic policies. But now it is the business community expressing their contempt, accusing foreign donor agencies of interfering in Nepal's internal economic policy.
&nbsp;Nepal's economy is beholden to foreign donor agencies and the small loans that they have provided us,” said the Federation of Nepalese Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FNCCI) president Chandra Prasad Dhakal during a recent panel attended by Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal. “If our economic indicators are positive, we should pay off those loans.”
Dhakal claimed that Nepal’s economy is in crisis on account of the country having to follow strict conditions put in place by the IMF for its loans, and that paying them off would mean that the terms and conditions of the ECF agreement would cease to apply.&nbsp;
ECF provides medium-term financial assistance to low-income countries with protracted balance of payments problems, granting loans at zero interest rates to nations where the amount of money leaving the country exceeds the amount coming into the country.&nbsp;
The Confederation of Nepalese Industries (CNI) was even more direct. Chair Rajesh Kumar Agrawal warned the IMF to “stay in its lane” following a meeting with its representatives in September.&nbsp;
Chairman Agrawal highlighted the fact that undue pressure must not be put on Nepal because economic policies and principles of other nations are not entirely applicable to Nepal's economy, which has its own unique characteristics,’ read a statement released by the CNI after the meeting.
And while the government has initiated some reforms stipulated by the IMF in the loan agreement, major terms remain unmet— such as granting autonomy to the central bank.&nbsp;
The IMF withheld the third instalment of the ECF loan, and the funds were eventually released after Finance Minister Prakash Sharan Mahat assured the IMF in October that Nepal would make necessary reforms per the loan agreement.&nbsp;
These commitments have now put the government at odds with the private sector, which has expressed dissatisfaction over NRB’s new loan classification as well as the new provision of a six-month wait for non-performing loans to be upgraded.&nbsp;
Industrialists have taken special issue with the recently implemented guidelines on working capital loans, per which the NRB banned the practice of industries taking out current capital loans to clamp down on borrowers who take loans for industries and invest them elsewhere.&nbsp;
The NRB eventually revised the guidelines to make them more flexible for borrowers after the private sector lobbied against the provision, arguing that the guidelines — which they claim is the result of interference by the IMF—could not be implemented when Nepal is in a ‘difficult economic position’.&nbsp;
Panicked bankers— who are suspected to have colluded with internal auditors to hide that they were in cahoots with businesses and industries— have also been trying to stop the central bank from implementing the IMF-stipulated international audit of the ten biggest commercial banks.&nbsp;
All of this has led the private sector to attribute Nepal’s economic slowdown to increased regulation of financial institutions by the NRB.
“Our economy is where it is because we have implemented financial and economic policy directives given by Western lenders without contextualising suitability and effectiveness for Nepal’s economy,” CNI chair Agrawal said last month.&nbsp;
But officials at the Nepal Rastra Bank say that the IMF is being unfairly blamed for trying to prevent the misuse of loans and blocking laws and policies pertaining to financial governance and transparency. “The private sector is trying to block economic reforms in order to protect their own interests,” one NRB executive told Nepali Times.&nbsp;
A former secretary at the Finance Ministry says that economic policy terms and conditions set by the IMF expand its influence and force economically weaker countries to implement its norms, thereby distorting such countries’ economies, adding that the IMF is putting similar pressure on Nepal.&nbsp;
But Rastra Bank Governor Maha Prasad Adhikari says that Nepal is making amendments on its own even though they might inconvenience the private sector. Former Finance Minister and governor Yuvraj Khatiwada also doesn’t agree that the IMF is interfering in Nepal’s economic policy.
“The mandate of these agencies includes giving advice for financial stability and external sector reforms—issues like economic growth and credit expansion are not within their purview,” notes Khatiwada, adding that Nepal has no obligation to implement IMF’s suggestions. “Instead of pointing fingers at the IMF, the government must set policies that prioritise Nepal’s financial and external stability and economic growth.”
IMF representatives were unavailable for comment.&nbsp;
&nbsp;

Business not happy with the IMF

Assaulted daily by news of politicians getting away with larceny, convicted criminals being freed, impunity and then the tragic news of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/war-in-israel-earthquake-and-grief-in-nepal">10 students brutally killed</a> by Hamas in Israel, the mood ahead of Dasain this year is subdued.
<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/state-malfunction">Adding to the woes</a> are everyday economic worries about inflation, low purchasing power, a slump in retail trading. Street front shops are shuttered, and have to-let signs. &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
But at the macro-economic level, things are looking rosy, with Finance Minister Prakash Sharan Mahat trying to raise spirits this week by declaring that the death of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/business-as-unusual">Nepal's economy</a> was exaggerated.
The World Bank has projected that the economy will grow by 3.9% this fiscal year, and by 5% in fiscal 2025.&nbsp;
Removing import restrictions, loosening monetary policy, surging remittances, and the locomotive of India’s economic growth together appear to be pulling Nepal’s wagons along.&nbsp;
But the Bank also warned of risks: an <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/sikkim-flood-is-warning-to-nepal">erratic monsoon </a>that could harm agriculture, a new spike in commodity prices due to India’s food export ban. Higher inflation could keep policy rates elevated, increase domestic debt servicing costs, and drag growth.
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) projected Nepal’s economic growth at a slightly higher 4.3% for fiscal 2024, up from 1.9% in 2023. But both projections are far short of the government’s 6% growth target, and behind India, Bangladesh and Bhutan.
The overall scenario does not look precarious because of bulging forex reserves driven by last year’s import restrictions and remittances.&nbsp;
From suffering daily electricity rationing Nepal is now exploring exports, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/it-is-it">the IT sector is booming</a>, e-commerce has taken off, and agriculture is going from subsistence to commercial.&nbsp;
However, all this could have happened much more rapidly with better policy implementation. Money <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/guest-editorial/the-migration-myth">Nepalis abroad</a> send home is not being invested in productive sectors.
“Nepal needs $7-8 billion in investment per year. Capital formation is low, so we have to get more FDI. The scale of projects that need to come up has to be larger so that it can drive legislative and institutional reforms,” says Sujeev Shakya of Beed Management. “Only then can we create jobs, accelerate the economy and stem migration.”
<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/state-sponsored-economic-crisis-ikcxxmnp">Nepal’s economy has been stagnant </a>in recent years, with high inflation, fiscal imbalance, inadequate investment, low domestic production, deteriorating bank asset quality, and mass out-migration. Export continues to lag further behind burgeoning imports.
Nepal’s economy is still reeling from long-Covid complications, but many of the underlying problems are structural, and lack of strategic thinking.&nbsp;
The economy did reap the peace dividend in the 2006-2016 decade after the peace agreement: fiscal management was in good shape, public debt was decreasing, the external sector was robust, and resources for expanding credit was adequate.&nbsp;
Investment in infrastructure at that time could have boosted growth and created jobs, but the private sector opted for quick returns on real estate, stock market speculation and trade. Politicians also never followed through on grand speeches about attracting and retaining foreign investors.&nbsp;
Coalition politics, bureaucratic inefficiency and counterintuitive policies<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/state-of-the-state"> remain major hurdles</a>. The private sector shielded by insular policies do not want the status quo to change, even though there has been no major economic reform legislation for four long years.
One does not need a Nobel Prize in Economics to figure out what to do: move on the next set of macro-fiscal reforms, create a genuine investment friendly environment, and curb the rampant rent-seeking mindset.&nbsp;
Often accused of being a compulsive optimist, Shakya maintains that although the road is serpentine, Nepal is moving in the right direction. “Nepalis are resilient,” he notes.&nbsp;
“We overcame war, earthquake, blockade and Covid. We are generally happy with what we have, but what Nepal needs is forward-thinking policies and transformative reforms to actually drive the economy forward.” &nbsp;

Sahina Shrestha

1250x600

1084x550

To-let

A Member of Parliament operates a fast-food restaurant. Another MP runs a trout hatchery. A female party leader owns a pig farm. All three <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepali-women-go-from-home-to-house">women are in the business of politics</a>, and they have established and run their own enterprises on the side to augment household income and to backstop their careers. While their male counterparts in <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/can-nepal-elections-change-its-male-stream-politics">local, provincial and federal</a> governments have earned some notoriety for having a conflict of interest because they are also infrastructure contractors, these women <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/women-leaders-set-example-for-rest-of-nepal">multitask without mixing business with politics</a>.&nbsp; Coffee, avocado and banana  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20230314100332_7a5870a2238cf1567a28cc76eedff184b91864c9e900dd8db4aed064296a64f5.jpg" data-media-id="editor_3" data-image-id="20230314100332_7a5870a2238cf1567a28cc76eedff184b91864c9e900dd8db4aed064296a64f5" data-rendition-name="original" width="1200" height="800" loading="lazy" alt="devi khadka"> <figcaption>Photo: DEVI KHADKA</figcaption> </figure>  Devi Khadka is a <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/guerrilla-turned-member-of-parliament">former guerrilla</a> and Maoist Centre MP from Dolakha who was elected to the Constituent Assembly in 2008. And while she might have once walked the corridors of power in Kathmandu, Khadka is still attached to the roots of her family’s farming profession. &nbsp; In 2008, Khadka established a trout farm in Dolakha, but it was irreparably destroyed during the 2015 earthquake. However, she remained steadfast in her decision to continue her business and began growing tomatoes in greenhouses in Bhaktapur. But while Khadka’s farm thrived, things were not going so well back home in Dolakha, where she was the district in-charge under the erstwhile Nepal Communist Party formed after the merger of the UML and the Maoist Centre. A meeting of elected officials of nine municipalities of Dolakha were worried that subsidised farming and agriculture in general had become all but impossible in the district because of out-migration and low yield. Khadka was determined to do something about it – not through politics but with enterprise. “The decline of agriculture shook me to my core,” Khadka recalls. “I realised that it would be impossible to revive the people's hope and trust in farming unless I did not show them myself that properly done agriculture in Dolakha was still worthwhile.”  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20230314110312_c6dfaed9dfa3fa749e4465979344458f3af67ce6191c2839f71dde6ee9a8d561.jpg" data-media-id="editor_5" data-image-id="20230314110312_c6dfaed9dfa3fa749e4465979344458f3af67ce6191c2839f71dde6ee9a8d561" data-rendition-name="original" width="800" height="423" loading="lazy" alt="devi khadka 2"> <figcaption>Photo: DEVI KHADKA</figcaption> </figure>  So, Khadka returned home and set up the Women Floris Agriculture Private Limited in Gaurishankar Municipality, where for the last three years, Khadka and her husband Raj Kumar Shrestha have been growing coffee, avocados and bananas. Along with two other women, she set up the farm with an investment of Rs5 million. The three women are involved full-time in the business and employ 12 men on a part-time basis whenever it is farming season.&nbsp; Khadka juggles this with her role as a Central Committee member of the Maoist party. And while avocado and banana sell mostly in the domestic market, she has successfully negotiated to export her farm’s coffee to South Korea, Australia and Japan and other countries. “The business has not only given me financial independence, it has also made me an ethical politician,” she says. “Because of my business, I am able to engage in politics without resorting to dirty business, I get to demonstrate a high moral standing to my children and ensure that they have a good future.” Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/women-in-the-driving-seat">Women in the driving seat</a>, Shristi Karki Fast food and slow fashion  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20230314100336_8b919284442cc235aef28995d6a6019c4ae30b59f4909c12a2d38b2eace55d6b.jpg" data-media-id="editor_7" data-image-id="20230314100336_8b919284442cc235aef28995d6a6019c4ae30b59f4909c12a2d38b2eace55d6b" data-rendition-name="original" width="1200" height="800" loading="lazy" alt="NABINA LAMA 1"> <figcaption>Photos: SUMAN NEPALI</figcaption> </figure>  Nabina Lama was an MP in Nepal’s last Federal Parliament and is currently a central member of the UML. But despite an active political career, Lama owns not only one but two businesses. Her restaurant, Doban Pool Burger House in Kathmandu employs dozens of people. And many more benefit from her clothing store Rimthim Ethnic Collection, where she sells products made out of traditional dhaka and allo fabric. &nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20230314100336_d66df1ecbfe9bd68801a6f79c910b48a6f9fac6abc5772cb8735069fdfc37b7d.jpg" data-media-id="editor_8" data-image-id="20230314100336_d66df1ecbfe9bd68801a6f79c910b48a6f9fac6abc5772cb8735069fdfc37b7d" data-rendition-name="original" width="1200" height="800" loading="lazy" alt="NABINA LAMA 2"> </figure>  Lama’s ethnic fashion store is a joint venture with four other women entrepreneurs, and she is a 70% partner in the fast food restaurant. Whenever Lama is busy with her party work, her husband looks after day-to-day business at both outlets. &nbsp; Like Khadka, Lama agrees that entrepreneurship has made her financially self-sufficient and independent. She adds, “Having a business is the only reason I have been able to actively engage in politics.” Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nurture-in-her-nature/">Nurture in her nature</a>, Babita Shrestha Piggery and soap  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20230314100336_856e2ee40a5325ef875171139823c68a89637985bde3910396fda3e74dbf736b.jpg" data-media-id="editor_10" data-image-id="20230314100336_856e2ee40a5325ef875171139823c68a89637985bde3910396fda3e74dbf736b" data-rendition-name="original" width="1200" height="800" loading="lazy" alt="DHAN KUMARI SUNAR 1"> </figure>  Dhan Kumari Sunar, president of the Women's Organisation of the Scientific Socialist Communist Party of Nepal, operated a pig farm until it collapsed due to poor market management. But she did not let failure get her spirits down. Two years ago, she started the Tillikka Jhol Sabun Udhyog that makes liquid detergent together with Rs120,000 in investments from 12 other women from her party. Sunar took inspiration from her party’s ‘scientific’ ideology of an independent and self-reliant economy to set up her business.&nbsp; “The economic ownership of Nepali women in terms of resources and property is only 26%,” explains Sunar. “Entrepreneurship is <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/in-nepal-women-hold-up-more-than-half-the-sky">crucial to women’s freedom</a>, we cannot be truly free until we are financially independent.”&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20230314100336_02ffdefb8f1a074d28eb890aa7d2c9cf2dcc1c8d22899aff999d9aeb21014566.jpg" data-media-id="editor_12" data-image-id="20230314100336_02ffdefb8f1a074d28eb890aa7d2c9cf2dcc1c8d22899aff999d9aeb21014566" data-rendition-name="original" width="1200" height="800" loading="lazy" alt="DHAN KUMARI SUNAR 2"> </figure>  Sunar’s business runs on word-of-mouth, and is doing well. But the politician in her is critical of the lack of state support for small businesses, adding that her loan proposal has been stalled. Says Sunar: “The government promises to facilitate self-employment of Nepali youth, but it is not happening on the ground. Powerful middlemen who control businesses seize the loans set aside for women and low-income individuals and communities." Translated from the Himal Khabar <a href="https://www.himalkhabar.com/news/134729">original</a> by Shristi Karki.&nbsp; Read also:&nbsp; <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/news/women-moving-nepal-s-climate-activism">Women moving Nepal’s climate activism</a>, Sewa Bhattarai <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/the-women-connecting-nepal">The women connecting Nepal</a>, Sahina Shrestha

Nepal’s enterprising women in politics

<figure><img width="1500" height="1000" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109121112/636b8b9c9c7e80680e06b2afjpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Illustration: DIWAKAR CHHETRI</figcaption></figure>The COVID-19 pandemic has caught the world off guard, with enormous repercussions for Nepal’s economy because of its reliance on overseas migration and tourism.Nepal’s three week lockdown has been extended till at least 27 April. Flights are not going to restart till mid-May at the earliest. The country’s remittance-fueled, consumption-led economy, low manufacturing capacity, unemployment, huge trade deficit, high reliance on import-based consumption have been pre-existing challenges even before the lockdown. The pandemic has made everything more difficult.Tourism is the hardest hit, especially the hotel industry which is most vulnerable due to the fixed cost associated with not only salary and wages but also regular maintenance well as loan servicing obligations. Tourism is cash flow sensitive, and its oxygen supply has come to complete halt. It will take at least till 2021 for travel and tourism to revive, or rebound. Priority rescue measures are urgently required.Transport is another sector that needs urgent attention. Once the lockdown situation improves, transportation will kickstart itself. But till then, the industry needs support to manage maintenance and financial obligations.Aviation witnessed a quick rebound after the double whammy of the earthquake and Blockade, particularly for domestic movement. The situation is different this time. The high cost of grounded aircraft due to leasing, fixed and variable costs will pose a major challenge. Big ticket loan exposure and interest expense may just kill some operators. Most airlines have equipment on ‘Dry Lease’ that carry certain fixed costs ranging from $100-150,000 per month for smaller aircraft. Dollar fares for expats and tourists have been a major revenue earner for operators, and with tourism down this will dry up.Finance industry including the banking sector are operating at bare minimum, and only offering basic services such as cash operation including remittance services and basic trade finance. New book creation has virtually stopped as no loan processing is being carried out. <a style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/also-keeping-financially-healthy-in-a-lockdown/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Also keeping financially healthy in a lockdown</a>, Siddhant Raj PandeyLiquidity has been a problem that predates the pandemic. Nepali BFIs have  been long plagued by liquidity crunch, particularly after the real estate crash of 2009. After the earthquake, the industry faced a major credit crunch. The capital hike, reconstruction demand, a stable government all led to a surge in loan demand. But an unstable liquidity supply was a chronic threat.If prolonged, this could lead to assets price burst and real-estate could take the plunge. Banks would have to revalue risk assets, as most are backed by real estate collaterals. In short, non-performing assets need to be closelh monitored.  Remittance-dependence has fuelled consumption growth, and this could be affected by coronavirus outbreaks in destination coutnries for Nepali migrants like Japan, Malaysia, Korea and the Gulf. In addition, there is now <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/commercially-important-people/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">uncertainty about labour demand</a> because of the global downturn. Annual remittances could take a nosedive.Construction could pick up as soon as the lockdown is lifted. But big ticket projects, particularly ones with foreign contractors, in hydro, airports, highways could slow down and costs could overshoot. Banks with guarantee exposure in the construction sector could also be hit. The non-funded instrument could see ‘Willful Claim’ capitalising on grey area of force majeure, currently under discussion at the Nepal Rastra Bank and the banking sector. Trade may rebound quickly because of Nepal’s import-based consumption patterns. However, the dent in purchasing power capacity due to loss of business and employment could be a matter of concern.The Health Sector ironically may see a slowdown during the pandemic. The banks carry significant exposure in medical care in heads like working capital, term loan and fixed assets. Balance of Payments could be a major concern as remittances drop. Tourism is another forex earner that is hit hard. Exports were always negligible, but even that will be slowed further with the lockdown.  Revenue Collection could dry up due to shortfall in revenue targets.  This could limit spending and development in infrastructure projects, creating problems in multiple areas from employment, base level economic activities, consumption amongst others.Small and Medium Enterprises are key economic enablers and yet largely out of formal sector reach. This impact assessment could be bit tricky and may require a deep dive into both formal and informal source of borrowings.Perhaps linkage to cooperatives could be one way to establish the relationship so as to gauge the depth of the impact. The critical focus here should be on employment generation, domestic production and revenue collection. GDP has 15 main sectors contributing to it. It may be wise to run a predictive analysis of each critical sector that may impact employment, value chain, economy amongst others.These are trying times for the economy, and we must be strategic about pressing the right buttons to speed up the rebound. Sanjib Subba was until recently the CEO of Nepal Banking Institute.

Unlocking the economy post-lockdown

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109101152/636b78a69c7e80680e0646b2jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1000" height="763"/><figcaption>Photo: BIKRAM RAI</figcaption></figure>With business coming to a grinding halt globally due to the COVID-19 pandemic, Nepal’s migration and tourism-based economy is being severely impacted.Global stock markets are in freefall, the US has halted trans-Atlantic flights, Italy is in lockdown, India has stopped issuing tourist visas, schools in Japan are closed, Qatar has banned nationals from 14 countries, Saudi Arabia has halted travel to nine countries, and although the virus has stabilised in next-door China, there is a danger there of reverse infection.But as the epidemic spreads, Nepal has officially admitted to only one confirmed case of COVID-19. Public health experts say this does not mean there are no infected people, it just means suspected cases have not been tested yet. They say the country is not prepared to deal with an outbreak.“The situation around the world is getting out of hand, but Nepal has been able to dodge a full-blown health crisis till now,” says Sameer M Dixit, a scientist at the Centre for Molecular Dynamics Nepal. “In an ideal situation the country would be under lockdown, but right now Nepal should stop all direct flights from highly affected countries.”Even though there are no overt signs of a health crisis, Nepal’s economy has already been hit hard and the impact is expected to worsen in the coming months as tourism collapses and air travel is further curtailed.The Asian Development Bank’s ‘<a href="https://www.adb.org/publications/economic-impact-covid19-developing-asia" target="_blank" rel="noopener">COVID-19 Economic Impact Assessment Template</a>’ released this week lays out the best- and worst-case scenarios for countries in the region. For Nepal, the bank predicts a loss of up to $322 million.The tourism sector has been impacted by travel restrictions imposed by Nepal and other countries, and airlines cancelling flights.The government decision late Thursday, after the print edition of this paper had gone to press, decided to revoke visa on arrival at Kathmandu for nationals of all countries. Visitors will still be allowed to enter Nepal but they will require a visa from a Nepali mission abroad and also a Coronavirus-free health certificate. The visa rule be effective 14 March to 30 April for now.The move comes one day after China cancelled all expeditions from its side of Mt Everest. The Nepali government has also cancelled all climbing expedition permits including Mt Everest for the spring season.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/why-nepal-must-watch-about-coronavirus-but-not-panic/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Why Nepal must watch Coronavirus, but not panic</a>, Sameer M DixitEven before the government <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/lets-call-off-visit-nepal-year-2020/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">called off Visit Nepal Year 2020</a>, the campaign was criticised for lack of international promotion and the money being wasted on domestic extravaganza. Although tourist arrivals saw only a slight drop to 101,400 in February, there was a 80% decrease in visitors from China.Official figures are not yet available for March and April, but the travel industry is reporting widespread cancellations. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-postpones-international-events-as-fear-of-covid-19-intensifies/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Many international conferences and sports events have been postponed</a>. Hotel occupancy rates are dropping at what should have been peak season. Trekking and mountaineering expeditions have gone ahead but there has been a 50% decline in the number of clients. There are also reports of cancellations for April.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109101152/636b78a99c7e80680e0646b3jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="981" height="497"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>“Hotel bookings are down by 60% in the 5-star hotels around Nepal,” Shreejana Rana, President of <a href="https://www.hotelassociationnepal.org.np/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Hotel Association of Nepal</a>, told Nepali Times. “We had <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/chinese-tourist-influx-to-nepal-in-2020/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">expected a surge in bookings </a>after Chinese New Year and during the spring from American and European tourists but that isn’t the case.”The first airlines to cancel flights were the ones operating to Chinese destinations: Himalaya Airlines, Sichuan Airlines and Tibet Airlines. Air China, China Southern and China Eastern are still operating flights, but with reduced frequency and smaller aircraft.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109101152/636b78ab9c7e80680e0646b4jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="4096" height="2730"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109101152/636b78ae9c7e80680e0646b5jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="3644" height="2429"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>“The tourism industry is very sensitive. The smallest problem has widespread impact, and it takes a lot of time to recover from it,” says Deepak Raj Joshi, former CEO of <a href="https://www.welcomenepal.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nepal Tourism Board</a>. “We need to start preparing for the future right away.”The Tourism Ministry is now repurposing <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/the-nepal-brand/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Visit Nepal Year 2020</a> towards a 2020-2030 ‘Tourism Decade’, and the hotel industry is relying on domestic promotion, encouraging Nepalis to travel to Pokhara and to go trekking during the new-year break in April.Nepal expects about 250 climbers from 24 expeditions on Mt Everest this spring, even though Korean, Japanese and some western expeditions have cancelled. This is half down from last year, when there was a <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/most-days-its-not-so-crowded-on-mt-everest/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">notorious traffic jam on the summit</a>. On Wednesday, China closed its side of the mountain due to the COVID-19 scare.“Everest expeditions are starting soon but we are still trying to figure out what to do if the mountaineers catch coronavirus during the trip,” says Sarita Lama of the <a href="https://www.taan.org.np/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Trekking Agencies’ Association of Nepal (TAAN)</a>. “This is so bad it may take us years to recover from the crisis.” Trek bookings are also at half of last year’s numbers.Nepal’s main source of foreign exchange, its <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/for-nepals-migrant-workers-good-news-in-small-bites/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">two million workers abroad</a>, will also be hit. Qatar this week imposed a ban on workers from 14 countries, including Nepal. Nepal is preventing workers from flying to South Korea.The High-Level Coordination Committee also decided on Thursday to stop issuing labour permits for Nepali migrants seeking to go abroad for work. It is uncertain when the migration ban will be lifted.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/labour-mobility/crossborder-virus-and-nepali-migrant-workers/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Crossborder virus and Nepali migrant workers</a>, Upasana KhadkaNepal’s major infrastructure projects all face delays because of the reliance on Chinese contractors and workers. The start of the epidemic in January coincided with Chinese New Year, which meant that workers at new airport projects in Pokhara, Bhairawa and numerous hydropower plants under construction who had gone home could not return.Even among those who have returned, some have been quarantined, including 70 who work on Pokhara’s new airport. If given the all-clear, they will be released only on 16 March.“Although work has slowed down these past couple of months, we will work night and day to meet the target completion date of July 2021,” Pokhara airport manager Binesh Munakarmi assured Nepali Times.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109101152/636b78b19c7e80680e0646b6jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="3000" height="1688"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Construction at Bhairawa airport, which was scheduled to open later this year, is expected to be delayed.“Many of our engineers and workers have not been able to come back to Nepal,” says Bhairawa airport project chief Prabesh Adhikari. “There are about 25 Chinese workers on site and we are trying to move construction forward, but we need the rest to return.”The timely completion of<a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/reservoirs-of-suspicion/hydropower-geopolitics%20,3991" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> hydropower projects</a>, of which 65 have the involvement of Chinese companies, looks more bleak. Construction at 25 of these under-construction projects have not resumed since Chinese New Year. Workers have not been allowed to travel out of China, and necessary electro-mechanical equipment has also not been dispatched from China to Nepal.“Even if one Chinese engineer is absent, or if one critical piece of equipment does not arrive from China, work stops,” says the <a href="http://www.ippan.org.np/public/page/ippan-committee" target="_blank" rel="noopener">President of the Independent Power Producers’ Association</a> Shailendra Guragain. “If the situation worsens, we may be seeing losses amounting to a billion dollars in our projects.”Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-climate-connection-to-covid-19/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The climate connection to Covid-19</a>, Rastraraj Bhandari

Nepal’s economy, already weak, takes direct hit

Nepal is ranked highest among South Asian countries in the GDP growth with 7.5% in FY2017, showing steep recovery after the earthquake and Blockade. The country must create 240,000 jobs a year to maintain its employment rate which is expected to slow down to 4.6% in 2018, according to South Asia Economic Focus report by World Bank. However, growth in FY2018 will be 4.6% according to the Bank’s twice-yearly Nepal Development Update. The main challenge will be managing fiscal and current account deficits.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110710114/6368cabd9c7e80680e02f32fjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="472" height="337"/><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110710114/6368cabf9c7e80680e02f330jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="325" height="331">Similarly, the World Economic Outlook of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) shows Nepal’s monthly remittance rose to an all-time high of $680 million in March 2018. The reason is said to be an increase in bank deposits to almost 16%. However inflation rate also rose to the 6% in the same period, the IMF said.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110710114/6368cac09c7e80680e02f331jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="491" height="335">