<figure><img width="1824" height="1368" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109171152/636bdb8e9c7e80680e0802cfjpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Photo: KUNDA DIXIT</figcaption></figure>After eight months, non-Nepalis were finally allowed to fly to Kathmandu from 17 October, but with two bizarre exceptions: flights from Indian cities are still banned, and only foreign trekkers and mountaineers are allowed into Nepal. While the Civil Aviation Authority of Nepal (CAAN) has lifted passenger restrictions at Kathmandu airport, and international airlines have added services to meet the Dasain peak, flights to New Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata and Bengaluru are still not permitted.Foreigners can now travel to Nepal, but only if they want to go trekking or climb a Himalayan mountain. Foreign passport holders who want to reunite with families, visit friends, join meditation classes, or just want to chill out in Kathmandu or Pokhara, are mysteriously still banned. Neither CAAN nor the government have given any official explanation about why flights to and from India are still not allowed, although ministers have privately said that it is because of the pandemic peak in India. However, the total new cases in India have started going down, while Covid-19 cases and fatalities are rising in Nepal – Wednesday saw highest daily death tally reach 26. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/trekkers-welcome-in-nepal-but-conditions-apply/">Trekkers welcome in Nepal, but conditions apply</a>, Nepali TimesThe India flight restrictions are all the more absurd because people have been travelling to and fro across the India-Nepal land border without tests or quarantines, whereas air passengers would need a mandatory PCR negative certificate before boarding, and quarantine at home for a week after landing in Kathmandu.The Indian authorities had proposed an ‘air bubble’ with Nepal two months ago to allow nationals of both countries to travel back and forth, but there has been no response from officials in Nepal. Minister of Tourism and Civil Aviation Yogesh Bhattarai and Indian Ambassador Vinay Mohan Kwatra met on 11 October, but not much was disclosed.Bhattarai, who was not wearing a mask during the meeting, tested positive for Covid-19 the very next day. Kwatra was quoted as saying that he raised the issue of resumption of Nepal-India flights, while the Nepali side said the discussions were only about new India-Nepal air routes for the international airport at Bhairawa, as well as two-way flights on the L626 airway corridor via Mahendranagar.There is speculation that the Prime Minister’s Office may be holding back permission for India flights as a bargaining tool to extract Indian concessions on air routes. However, by not allowing flights, it is Nepalis who are affected more. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/unlimited-flights-to-nepal-from-17-october/">Unlimited flights to Nepal from 1 October</a>, Nepali Times <figure><img width="1618" height="944" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109171152/636bdb929c7e80680e0802d0jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Photo: NEPAL TOURISM BOARD</figcaption></figure>There are tens of thousands of Nepalis working in India, students and those who had gone for medical treatment who have been stranded there for months. While Nepalis from North America, Europe and Australia have flown home since July, Nepalis have not been able to travel back from a next-door country. Flights connecting Kathmandu to Chinese cities like Lhasa, Chengdu, Guangzhou and Hong Kong are operating.Although foreign climbers and trekkers have been allowed to fly to Kathmandu, Nepal’s travel trade is not at all enthused. It is too late in the season for mountaineering expeditions and most treks. Besides, tourists  must have extra $5,000 worth of insurance, and have to spend a week in hotel quarantine in Kathmandu.Although the Everest, Langtang and Rolwaling trails are open, Mustang and Manang districts have decided to seal off their areas till February 2021. For all those reasons, even visitors who were determined to trek in Nepal this autumn have cancelled reservations, agencies say.“Tourists were not about to flood into Nepal. Yet, despite everything, there are still some who want to trek. But instead of making it easier for them, we have made confusing rules and put every possible obstacle in their way,” says travel entrepreneur Rajendra Sapkota.<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/hiking-in-the-himalaya-during-covid-19/">Hiking in the Himalaya during Covid-19?</a> Nepali Times <figure><img width="1364" height="698" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109171152/636bdb959c7e80680e0802d1jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption>Minister of Tourism and Civil Aviation Yogesh Bhattarai and Indian Ambassador Vinay Mohan Kwatra met on 11 October in Kathmandu. Photo: Ministry of Civil Aviation and Tourism</figcaption></figure>Foreigners visiting Nepal need a letter from a trekking or mountaineering agency, which many say opens up the possibility of visitors being forced to get a trekking permit just to enter Nepal, even though they have no intention of hiking in the Himalaya.“Since trekking and mountaineering are wilderness destinations, there is no point detaining negative tested tourists in Kathmandu, we should make it as easy as possible for them to get an immediate test, and head off to the mountains after landing in Kathmandu,” says the former chair of Nepal Tourism Board, Deepak Raj Joshi. The seven day quarantine is also seen as making no sense, since visitors are required to arrive with PCR negative reports. If they are trekking on the Everest trail, they need another PCR negative report before flying out to Lukla.“On the one hand we are telling the world Nepal is open to tourism, but on the other we are discouraging them with these absurd rules,” says Nabaraj Dahal, former head of the Trekking Agents’ Association of Nepal (TAAN).Instead of sending a positive message, government agencies appear to be working at cross purposes, telling foreigners they will be sent back from Kathmandu airport if they do not have proper papers.“The rule is that only trekking and mountaineering tourists are allowed, and they need a letter from the Nepal Tourism Board or ministry. Anyone else arriving without proper papers will be sent back,” stated Ramesh KC, Director General of the Immigration Department. The result of such irrational deterrence is already evident in the figures for arrivals. Since opening up to foreigners on 17 October, only two trekking groups and 24 non-Nepalis have arrived at Kathmandu airport.After angry complaints from tourism entrepreneurs, the Ministry of Tourism has recommended to the government to ease the restrictions, according to spokesperson Kamal Bhattarai. The delay in deciding about India flights and foreigner arrivals is largely due to the transfer of Ishwar Pokhrel, the defence minister who headed the Covid-19 Crisis Management Committee (CCMC).There is now no one in government coordinating pandemic-related policy. As it is, the CCMC was at loggerheads with other ministries for the past four months, often issuing contradictory and confusing decisions.<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/landing-in-kathmandu-is-only-half-the-story/">Landing in Kathmandu is only half the story</a>, Nepali Times

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Nepal’s baffling ban on India flights

<figure><img width="960" height="640" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110915118/636bb4f89c7e80680e07bbd6jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>All photos: BALRAM MISHRA/NEPAL RAILWAYS</figcaption></figure>Nearly 100 years after Nepal’s first railway line was constructed to join Raxual with Amlekhganj, the country has finally taken a new stride by test driving two brand new Indian-built trains on the 45km Jayanagar-Janakpur line on Friday.The gleaming new trains will be operated by Nepal Railways, and will be extended 61km to Bardibas to connect in future to the East-Way railway line. The railway project is being undertaken with Indian government assistance, and the broad gauge tracks are being laid till Bijalpura. <img width="960" height="640" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110915118/636bb4fb9c7e80680e07bbd7jpeg.jpg" alt="">The Jayanagar-Bijalpura narrow gauge line is not new, and had been built during British India in 1937 and used steam locomotives till it went out of service in 2001 after bridges were washed away in a flood. In the beginning, both the Amelkhganj and Bijalpura railways were used by the British to transport logs from Nepal’s Tarai forests for railway sleepers in India.The Raxaul-Amlekhganj tracks were built by the British in 1927 and transported dignitaries who could take jeeps to Bhimphedi for the three-day trek to Kathmandu. The seven Garratt steam locomotives were in use till 1965, when they were replaced by the highway to Kathmandu. <img width="960" height="640" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110915118/636bb4fd9c7e80680e07bbd8jpeg.jpg" alt=""><img width="363" height="242" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110915118/636bb4ff9c7e80680e07bbd9jpeg.jpg" alt="">Besides the Janakpur train, the only other railway line in Nepal at present is the 6km broad gauge from Raxual to the Sirsiya Inland Container Port that connects landlocked Nepal to sea ports in India. It was inaugurated in 2005, and serves as an important link for Nepal’s trade with the outside world. <img width="960" height="700" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110915118/636bb5029c7e80680e07bbdajpeg.jpg" alt="">Nepal’s East-West Railway project will be nearly 1,000km long when it is completed, and cost $3 billion. However, like all other projects in Nepal this one is also mired in controversy, the most recent of which concerned land acquisition for the 106km eastern section of the railway from Inaruwa to Kakarvitta.Senior politicians were reportedly working with parliamentarians, and even the anti-graft agency to embezzle Rs10 billion from the land acquisition deal. The Railway Department has now cancelled the tender.  Read also:<a href="https://nepalitimes.atavist.com/the-tibet-train">The Tibet train</a>, Om Astha Rai<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/new-china-nepal-rail-corridor/">New China-Nepal rail corridor</a>, Ramesh Kumar <img width="800" height="533" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110915118/636bb5059c7e80680e07bbdbjpeg.jpg" alt="">

Nepal Railways Janakpur test drive

<figure><img width="2048" height="1366" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110915114/636bb36d9c7e80680e07bb3fjpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption></figcaption></figure>On 5 September, India tallied a record 90,600 new cases of the novel coronavirus in a single day – more than any other country since the pandemic began. India will soon overtake Brazil to have the second-highest caseload after the United States.India’s National Statistical Office revealed last week that the country’s output between April and June 2020 was 24% lower than in the same period the previous year. This was the first time India had recorded a quarter of negative growth since it began issuing such data publicly in 1996.No other big economy has by shrunk so much during the pandemic. In the same period, the GDP of the United States fell by just over 9%. What had seemed a dismal economic performance by India in 2019, has been overshadowed by what the pandemic has done. And there is little sign of recovery, both in terms of the economy and a slowdown of the Covid-19 spread.India’s lockdown in late March at only four hours’ notice was arguably too soon (although some would regard it as prescient) and too unselective. The ban on commercial activity and movement outside the home was nearly total for two months.India was even less prepared than many. It had fewer than 1 hospital bed per 1,000 people when the epidemic started -- South Korea had more than 16 times as many. Around 140 million people were thrown out of work, and millions of urban workers felt obliged to return home, usually on foot, to their villages where often they were unwelcome.The only silver lining is that the number of recorded deaths in India due to SARS-CoV-2 infections is lower than expected – the country’s 3.8 million detected cases have given rise to ‘only’ 70,679 as of 5 September. This is low rate by global standards. It is possible that many deaths have gone unreported, but the results of blood serum surveys suggest that, in India’s crowded cities at least, a relatively high proportion of people may have now been infected, survived and have immunity. Antibodies were found in 41% of samples collected in Mumbai in July, and nearly 57% in slum areas. They were also found in 23% of tests in Delhi in June and more than 28% in August. <img width="968" height="1070" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110915114/636bb3719c7e80680e07bb40jpeg.jpg" alt="">All this has direct bearing on Nepal, as <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/as-india-peaks-covid-19-spreads-rapidly-in-nepal/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/as-india-peaks-covid-19-spreads-rapidly-in-nepal/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1599455584626000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFJC0orFU_5TiZpPHV4NiwUYjObyA">this paper reported recently</a>. The virus is now spreading in the community in Nepal, and closing the border will not stop transmission.  The rapid spread of the virus in India and the lockdown had a big impact on millions of Nepalis living and working in India. When they lost their jobs, they felt impelled, like so many of their Indian fellow workers, to return to their villages in April-May. Nepal <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/returnees-may-be-taking-coronavirus-to-rural-nepal/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/returnees-may-be-taking-coronavirus-to-rural-nepal/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1599455584626000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHiKIHR6apbKK79PXME1_hheaEBiw">imported the virus willy-nilly</a> as the migrants crossed the border and fanned out across the country. As most Nepalis returnees travelled by road or rail, rather than by air, stopping international air travel was largely irrelevant as regards this particular influx. <figure><img width="1500" height="1000" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110915114/636bb3739c7e80680e07bb41jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption></figcaption></figure>Attempts to control the border, and quarantine the returnees have proven largely unsuccessful. This is in part because of the lack of resources and/or incompetence of the local authorities (given the very limited federalisation of funds and powers allocated to the new states) and in part because the border between India and Nepal is porous.The virus therefore was carried to many different parts of the country,  evading effective control at an early stage and ‘seeding’ a number of local outbreaks. The limited capacity of public facilities at the local level to respond effectively to such outbreaks, except by lockdown, has delayed or even prevented proper treatment of those infected and becoming seriously ill. It has also adversely affected local economies, and thus <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/economic-cost-of-5-months-of-nepal-lockdown/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/economic-cost-of-5-months-of-nepal-lockdown/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1599455584626000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHdZp06C9oR3pf9T5f4o1IReNNcew">the national economy.</a>Nepal’s economy has, in any case, but hard hit by the restrictions on international and domestic travel and transport, and by relatively unselective and arguably draconian lockdown measures. These have together devastated certain sectors – notably tourism, transport and the hospitality and entertainment business, and led to a serious increase in unemployment.Many returning migrant workers will have brought money back with them, which will have helped those families and local communities to which they have returned. Many who came back from India are now going back there because they have run out of savings, and have no jobs in Nepal.Nearly 80,000 Nepali workers have flown back from the Gulf, Malaysia and other countries. And as those destination countries also try to control the epidemic, the flow of remittances is bound to diminish in the coming months.After the lifting of the lockdown led to a surge of Covid-19 nationwide, and now Kathmandu Valley, the government re-imposed restrictions in 48 districts out of 77 districts.The total 45,277 cases remains relatively low in comparison with many other countries of the same size of population. The number of deaths at 280 is also comparatively small. The UK, which has more than double of Nepal’s population, for example, the total number of cases is now roughly 340,000 and the number of recorded deaths at 46,000.Nepal’s early peak (in April in Nepal) has been followed, first by a decline to a level comparable to the early days of the outbreak (in July in Nepal), and then by a resurgence following a lifting of the lockdown to a point where now the average daily figure for the number of cases tops 1,000.The omens are not good. The epidemic is clearly not under control, and it is not evident that a total or widespread lockdown is likely to provide anything more than another temporary respite.The <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/prevention-while-searching-for-a-cure/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/prevention-while-searching-for-a-cure/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1599455584626000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFvT3ucTgMvl01bXjSQdR_hEqs8KA">only strategy that is likely to succeed</a> in the medium term is one in which both the basics of maintaining physical distance, wearing masks and washing hands thoroughly are emphasised in all advice and are duly followed by all the population.A universal test and trace approach also needs to be adopted, combined with a ‘cat and mouse’ (what PM Boris Johnson referred to as ‘whack-a-mole’) strategy of selective lockdown, test and trace in the case of local outbreaks, to ‘hit’ the virus hard when it re-appears.In the long run, the main hopes are:<ol><li>Increasing numbers of those infected will recover and gain immunity, creating a sufficient ‘critical mass’ of immune people, to reduce the ‘R’ rate to a minimum</li><li>The virus will mutate to become less virulent</li><li>Treatments will lead to a significant decline in cases of seriously ill people and numbers dying</li><li>A vaccine or vaccines will be available to a majority of the population to raise immunity and reduce the chances of becoming seriously ill.</li></ol>David Seddon is author of Nepal in Crisis: Growth and Stagnation in the Periphery and The Struggle for Basic Needs in Nepal, Nepal - A State of Poverty, and co-author of The People’s War.

India and Nepal in Covid-19 crisis together

<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109141112/636ba7ab9c7e80680e073797jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000"/>UPDATE 29 August: Covid-19 fatality in Nepal now stands at 207. A total of 22 people are undergoing treatment with ventilator support: three in Province 1, 17 in Bagmati and two in Province 5.Although the initial wave of coronavirus cases in Nepal <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/returnees-may-be-taking-coronavirus-to-rural-nepal/">were from across the border in India</a>, public health experts now say it makes no sense to blame imported infection because the virus is now spreading in the community.India is now the country with the third largest caseload with over 3.3 million confirmed cases, and up to 70,000 new cases every day– the highest in the world. But compared to its 1.3 billion population, this is still a low figure and India’s fatality rate of 1.87% is one of the lowest.Yet, age-adjusted mortality rate paints an entirely different picture, which looks very similar to that of Nepal – SARS-CoV-2 is <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/why-are-younger-people-in-poor-countries-dying-of-covid-19/">killing far higher percentages of younger people</a> than in the developed countries.Covid-19 similarities between India and Nepal do not end there: already poor health infrastructure in both countries <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepals-virus-vortex/">are overwhelmed</a>, there is <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/learning-from-hiv-to-fight-covid-19-in-nepal/">societal stigma</a>, health workers are infected, politicians have died, and the movement of migrant workers has affected people on both sides of the border.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109141112/636ba7ae9c7e80680e073798jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="707">What happens in India has always impacted Nepal because the two countries share an open border and this pandemic is no different, especially given Indian states bordering Nepal are some of the most affected: Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal and Bihar have 466,725 cases between them.Nepal saw the first surge of Covid-19 cases in late March when hundreds of thousands of Nepalis working in India come back home following lockdowns in both the countries. Between 8 March and 2 July alone, an estimated 500,000 Nepalis <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/workers-return-to-jobless-nepal/">returned from India</a>. While they were quarantined in the first few weeks, later arrivals were allowed to go straight home to their villages for self-isolation.“Nepal will always be at the risk because of the porous open border, even during the lockdown thousands of people managed to sneak in illegally,” says Sher Bahadur Pun of the Health Ministry. “Even if we are able to control the spread of the virus in Nepal and bring the cases down, we will never be safe until the virus spreading is not under control in India.”<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109141112/636ba7b19c7e80680e073799jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="2048" height="1366"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>The second wave of infections happened after Nepal’s lockdown was <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-ends-covid-19-lockdown/">relaxed on 21 June</a>, at a time when Covid-19 was raging across Bihar and Uttar Pradesh. Thousands of Indian workers poured across the border to rejoin jobs in factories along the Tarai industrial corridors.The border district of Parsa, which had brought the virus under control, was suddenly hit by an outbreak that spread like wildlife. From Birganj, the virus travelled easily to Kathmandu, making the Valley the next hotspot.As of 27 August, Nepal has registered 35,529 confirmed cases with 183 fatalities. Ten of Nepal’s 77 districts now have over 1,000 cases, Kathmandu leads with 3,455 cases, and the Valley saw a record 377 new cases on Thursday. Nationwide, the recovery rate has dropped from 73% in July to 56.7% now, since most new cases are symptomatic, or patients are serious enough to need ICU care.It is now clear that the clusters have merged and are spreading in the community, and just like with polio Nepal will not be able to fully defeat SARS-CoV-19 until it is under control in India.Because of this, public health experts say Nepal has no choice but to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/prevention-while-searching-for-a-cure/">enforce distancing, mask wearing, hand-washing</a> and other precautions. The current lockdown in Kathmandu has been extended till 2 September.“If we can successfully implement safety measures and control the movement of the people at the border and inside the country, what is happening in India should not affect us so much,” says public health expert Sameer Mani Dixit.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109141112/636ba7b59c7e80680e07379ajpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1509" height="1098"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Despite India’s heavy daily caseload and fatalities, the country has opened limited domestic and international flights, trains, public transport and shops.There are also lessons to be learned from Delhi, which used to be a hotspot. The recovery rate there has surged from 55% in June to 90% this month. Delhi’s aggressive testing and tracing and home isolation are measures Nepal could easily emulate.The ‘<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/how-did-kerala-beat-covid-19-spread/">Kerala Model</a>’ is also worth noting: public health authorities there prioritised early detection through extensive testing, widespread contact tracing, and 28-day quarantines for everyone infected. Despite being the first state to report a case of Covid-19, Kerala has among the lowest fatality rates in India.“These models are particularly useful because over half of our cases are still asymptomatic, which means we need to keep up active contact tracing, mass testing and surveillance,” says Sher Bahadur Pun. “We also still need to better communicate safety measures, having a figure that the public trusts endorse masks and distancing will be very effective because lockdowns are not a long-term solution. Behavioural change is.”Indeed, lockdowns only seem to provide a false sense of security and would have been unnecessary if the public had adopted the safety measures after 21 July. The <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/economic-cost-of-5-months-of-nepal-lockdown/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">economic cost of five months of Nepal lockdown</a>, and the lack of treatment of existing diseases threaten to far outweigh benefits of the restrictions.Recently, the Nepal Health Research Council decided to allow international researchers to conduct <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/a-covid-19-exit-strategy-for-nepal/">Covid-19 vaccine</a>trials in Nepal as part of a global effort to stop the virus. There are at least 30 vaccines in clinical trials across India.Says Sameer Mani Dixit: “It looks like we are very close to peaking in Nepal, which is not to say there won’t be sporadic spikes, it will continue to happen until we have a vaccine. But in the meantime mandatorily wearing masks and not crowding will be the way of life into the future.”

Sonia Awale

As India peaks, Covid-19 spreads rapidly in Nepal

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108131148/636a504f9c7e80680e04fd52jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1400" height="888"/><figcaption>Pic: ANEK PANDEY</figcaption></figure>When Nepal signed the Sugauli Treaty with British India in 1816, parts of the demarcated border  followed the courses of rivers. Since then, the sediment-heavy rivers flowing down from the mountains have changed course many times. The Kosi itself now flows 120km west of where it was in Bihar when the treaty was signed two centuries ago.Since 1994, India and Nepal have decided to follow the Fixed Boundary Doctrine, meaning the border line does not change even if the river alters course. Though survey teams from the two sides are supposed to work together to keep track of the border, it is a difficult task during the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/monsoon-2019-deluge/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">monsoon flood</a> season.Read also:<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/nepal-must-keep-water-on-its-land/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nepal must keep water on its land</a>, Anil Chitrakar<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/flood-of-recrimination/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Flood of recrimination in the Nepal Tarai</a>, EditorialThis year has been no different. Many pillars along the 1,880km Indo-Nepal border have either been washed away or are submerged. Of the 8,554 border pillars, 2,105 are actually located within rivers, and more are along floodplains that are submerged in the monsoon. Among them, 452 pillars have either been removed or lost – half of them because of floods.The big flood of 13 July washed away many of the remaining pillars. Among them were four that were reinstalled just last year in Bijaynagar of Kapilvastu district (one of them, pictured above).Survey Department staff themselves admit that the design of pillars located on riverbeds must be changed from cement to steel structures bolted to concrete foundations to withstand floods.Read also: <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/Flood-on-the-border-Nepal-India,3915" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Border wall</a>, Kanak Mani Dixit<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-tarai-learns-from-past-floods/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nepal Tarai learns from past floods</a>, Sewa BhattaraiNepal has deployed 15,000 Armed Police along the Indian border, with outposts every 20-30 km. These bases are supposed to keep track of the state of the pillars and keep the Home Ministry updated on their condition.However, experts say that increased sedimentation in Tarai streams due to deforestation and <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/page/crushing-tale-of-Chure" target="_blank" rel="noopener">quarrying in the Chure Range</a>, as well as poorly-designed roads and <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/Flood-on-the-border-Nepal-India,3915" target="_blank" rel="noopener">embankments</a>, will <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/flood-of-recrimination/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">make floods worse</a> in coming years.“The solution is for India and Nepal to work jointly not just to repair border pillars, but also to stop blaming each other for floods every monsoon and forget about it after the rains,” Birganj-based writer Chandra Kishore says. “Nationalism is not going to prevent future disasters.”Meanwhile, all along the India-Nepal border this rainy season the state of the border pillars are a stark reminder of the inability of the two countries to work together to reduce their mutual risk from floods.Ramu Sapkota with Gopal Bhandari in Kapilvastu

Borderline disorder

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108121156/636a44b49c7e80680e04d346jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="886"/><figcaption>Illustration: DIWAKAR CHETTRI</figcaption></figure>Why is it that every time Nepal’s prime minister goes to India, all hell breaks loose back home? In 2016, when Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal was being feted in a high-profile visit to New Delhi, the anti-corruption Czar Lokman Singh Karki held a hurriedly summoned press conference to say that he was investigating Dahal’s alleged misappropriation of billions of rupees meant for ex-Maoist guerrillas in UN supervised camps. As soon as he returned, Dahal got other political leaders to start impeachment proceedings against Karki.Prime Minister Oli was in New Delhi for Narendra Modi’s inauguration last week, and it was Dahal’s turn to leak an agreement on the UML-Maoist unification that included a clause that said Oli and Dahal would ‘take turns as necessary and on the basis of equality’ to be prime minister. Many analysts say Dahal had initially shown flexibility on the timing because he thought Oli was in failing health and would have to step down sooner or later.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/one-body-two-heads/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">One body, two heads</a>, Om Astha RaiHowever, with Oli showing signs of being in the pink of health, Dahal is getting impatient. Siding with him are his own colleagues, as well as disgruntled ex-UML stalwarts like Bam Dev Gautam and Madhav Kumar Nepal, who have not been given plum cabinet posts. On Oli’s side are powerful Defence Minister Ishwar Pokhrel, trusted aide Bishnu Paudel, as well as Home Minister Ram Bahadur Thapa, who has distanced himself from his former Maoist bosses.Gautam has been harping on about the need to have ‘one post, one responsibility’ and wants Oli to at least relinquish his party co-chairmanship. That is not going to happen, Pokhrel has publicly declared. Both Pokhrel and Paudel dismiss the leadership debate as an “artificial diversion”, and privately blame it on Dahal’s eagerness to be prime minister for the third time.Dahal and Oli have met to try to iron out the issue, but both seem to be getting their trusted aides to rattle sabres while denying that there is a behind-the-scenes power struggle going on. The dispute is casting doubts about whether the Maoists and the UML are really united after all, and delaying the formation of a politburo and establishing a joint political structure.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/from-the-nepali-press/we-need-answers-from-communists/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">We need answers from the Communists</a>, Nepali Times

Kunda Dixit

Rift in Nepal's ruling party

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108121144/636a41df9c7e80680e04a69cjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1280" height="853"/><figcaption>Photos: SANDEEP RANA BJP HEADQUARTER</figcaption></figure>Prime <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/guest-editorial/modi-india-politics,872" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Minister Modi</a> is returning to power in India with more confidence will mean that his government will be more assertive towards smaller countries like Nepal in the neighborhood.As a leader who masterminded the <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/autopsy-of-a-blockade%20,2863" target="_blank" rel="noopener">five-month economic blockade</a> of Nepal in 2015, Modi’s policy towards its northern neighbour has been hands-off since then.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/indias-new-social-media-politics/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">India's new social media politics</a>, Shashi TharoorThe new Modi government can be expected to counter China’s Belt Road Initiative with increasing India’s own investment in highway, railway, energy and telecommunication connectivity to and within Nepal.Nepal’s leaders may also have to adjust their policy of equidistance between Beijing and New Delhi to take into account a more powerful and confident Modi government to the south.Read also: <a style="letter-spacing: 0.01em; background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/at-ground-zero-in-indias-election-heartland/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">At ground zero in India's election heartland</a>, Namrata Sharma<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/GUEST-COLUMN/looking-forward-to-the-foreign-policy-of-the-modi-government,302" target="_blank" rel="noopener">When he won in 2014</a>, Modi had launched a ‘neighbourhood first’ policy with mixed results. This time he may show them red lines while seeking to a much larger say in the region, and offering cooperation in development areas with people-oriented projects as he has done at home.Modi could redefine his Nepal policy in order to seek acceptability and course correction. There are challenges on foreign policy as the problems in India’s periphery are significant. With occasional diplomatic blunders and lack of ground understanding, there are serious limitations to India’s influence in the region vis-a-vis an assertive China.Read also: <a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/a-modi-fied-oli/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">A Modi-fied Oli</a>, Om Astha Rai<a style="background-color: #ffffff; font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/campaigning-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Campaigning in Nepal</a>, Editorial<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221108121144/636a41e39c7e80680e04a69djpeg.jpg" alt="" width="830" height="1024"><figcaption>Photos: SANDEEP RANA BJP HEADQUARTER</figcaption></figure>The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) under Narendra Modi has swept India’s 2019 parliamentary elections by winning 300 seats on its own out of the 542 in the Lower House. The NDA (National Democratic Alliance) led by BJP has mustered 349 seats, which is up from 336 in 2014. The opposition Indian National Congress mustered barely 51 seats, with its United Progressive Alliance obtaining 91.The saffron wave not only swept through the Hindi heartland and Gujarat, but also rippled through West Bengal, Odisha, Maharashtra and Karnataka. It has gained nearly 50% vote share in North and West India and broken its own 2014 record.By pursuing an inward-looking growth, India has also failed to economically integrate the region. But it is more than concerned about the rising footprints of China in Nepal and elsewhere, which were traditionally seen as within its sphere of influence.The results clearly indicate that Modi is and will remain an uncontested leader in India. Voters seem to like his assertive leadership, and think it will secure national interest, deliver on governance and lift the poor. They have voted for Modi despite massive unemployment, rural distress and the highly divisive nature of BJP campaigns.India may now be headed towards a presidential-style of government with every constituency having voted for just one person: Modi. This is unprecedented as no single politician has emerged the centre of an entire election exercise since Indira Gandhi in 1971. Critics say this will concentrate power and centralise decision-making, as the election was fought solely on the issue of national leadership.The results also indicate that ideological battles are different from electoral contests as India has voted as a block despite caste dynamics, regional traditions and social structures embedded in Indian political system.Consensus coalition politics is now a thing of the past with powerful regional satraps holding sway. Except for Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Andhra Pradesh, the BJP has made huge inroads in states it was weak earlier in like West Bengal and Odisha which were dominated by strong regional leaders. It has managed to even thwart the threats from BSP-SP super-coalition ‘mahagathbandan’ in Uttar Pradesh.How did the juggernaut of Modi and BJP President Amit Shah manage such a victory? The BJP is a well-organised, cadre-based party with deep penetration right to the electoral booth. Over the past five years Amit Shah built an extraordinary party machinery with millions of new members who reached out to voters.During the campaign, BJP deployed enormous financial resources, dominated the media, and did not allow dissenting voice in the party to emerge in public. There has been micro-management from the top thereby maintaining the flow of command and discipline among cadres.The opposition Congress, on the other hand, was disorganised. Although it talked of delivering justice through ‘love and unity’, that did not resonate with the upper class and first-time voters in India. The fact that the President of Congress party Rahul Gandhi lost to BJP’s Smriti Irani in Amethi in Uttar Pradesh, which was considered a stronghold of Gandhi family, goes to show that the opposition’s criticism of Modi’s policies on demonetisation and slogans like ‘chowikar chor hai’ did not have support because voters were looking for decisive leadership. The only state that Congress gained in was Punjab under Capt Amarinder Singh.The Modi government’s welfare schemes like building toilets, cooking gas connections, housing and rural electrification benefitted recipients who have in turn rewarded him abundantly. Some 48 million people received Mudra loans totaling crore in last four years. The underprivileged see in Modi a person who can deliver on his promises.The 100 million first time voters seem to be Modi-worshippers: rich or poor, these voters they have known only one name in national politics, someone who believes in digitalising India and is often seen hugging foreign dignitaries. They like Modi’s extrovert style, his oratory and they believe in his dream of a modern India. They felt Rahul Gandhi is no alternative.“India has won, democracy has won, and people have won,” Modi told supporters, calling his victory one of ‘hope and desires for a new India’. Hundreds of millions of Indians now look up to him to resolve national problems and enhance India’s role on the global stage.The author is Nepali journalist and researcher based in New Delhi.

Tsu-namo 2.0 and Nepal

India and Pakistan are twins separated at birth. Tensions between them have been at a hair trigger ever since independence and has erupted into full scale conflict at least four times in the past 80 years.
The 22 April terrorist attack in Kashmir that killed 25 Indian tourists and a Nepali citizen, threatens to escalate tension between the two nuclear-armed nations. India has squarely blamed Pakistan for the attacks, and Prime Minister Narendra Modi has given his military “operational freedom” to respond. Pakistan has said it has credible intelligence of an Indian military strike and its officials have promised a “full spectrum” response — a code for a <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/thinking-the-thinkable">nuclear retaliation</a>.
For Nepal, the killing of its national in the Pahalgam attack comes as another stark reminder that in conflicts from Afghanistan to Iraq, from <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/how-to-agree-an-armistice-in-ukraine">Ukraine</a> to Israel, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/10-nepalis-from-one-town-fighting-in-ukraine">Nepalis are getting caught in the crossfire</a>. The last time full-scale fighting broke out between <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/peacemongers-at-india-pakistan-border">India and Pakistan</a> on Kargil in 1999, at least 22<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/india-s-trial-by-fire-for-soldiers-from-nepal?%27%5C%22="> Nepalis fighting for the Indian Army</a> were killed in action.
Three of Nepal’s immediate neighbours (China, India, Pakistan) have nuclear weapons, and they do not have good relations. With China supplying weapons, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/war-and-warming">missile technology</a> and other support to Pakistan, this triangular friction could set off a regional conflagration.&nbsp;
<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-022-00573-0" target="_blank">Research at Rutgers University</a> has calculated that even a week-long tactical nuclear exchange between India and Pakistan would throw up so much smoke and debris into the atmosphere that it would block out the sun for years, and lead to a collapse of the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/grow-nourish-sustain-together-world-food-day">global food system</a>. This does not take into account the radioactive fallout that prevailing winds would blow up to <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/lives-on-the-line-in-the-himalaya">the Himalaya</a>, contaminating glaciers that are the sources of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/saving-what-is-left-of-himalayan-rivers">Asia’s main rivers</a>.
The impact of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/climate-breakdown-linked-to-thame-flood">climate breakdown </a>on High Asia was already ringing alarm bells about its <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/himalayan-icecap-melting-faster-than-thought">shrinking ice cap</a> reducing the dry season flow of water downstream. Water was going to be the next strategic commodity, geopolitical experts warned, and the next wars in Asia would be over water.
That water war is already happening. India retaliated to the Kashmir attack by suspending the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/24/world/asia/india-pakistan-indus-waters-treaty.html" target="_blank">Indus Waters Treaty</a> of 1960 mediated by the World Bank that has withstood at least three wars between India and Pakistan. The treaty gives India control over the three eastern tributaries of the Indus (<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beas_River" target="_blank">Beas</a>, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ravi_River" target="_blank">Ravi</a> and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sutlej" target="_blank">Sutlej</a>), while Pakistan got water from the Indus and two of its western tributaries (<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indus_River" target="_blank">Indus</a>, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chenab_River" target="_blank">Chenab</a> and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jhelum_River" target="_blank">Jhelum</a>.
Pakistan was assured of 70% of the annual flow, and India could use a reasonable amount of water for<a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=15231"> irrigation and hydropower</a>. &nbsp;Within days of its threat, India stopped water flowing down to Pakistan from the Chenab river and is reportedly preparing to do the same on the Jhelum.
The sabre-rattling has reached a crescendo. Besides threats and counter-threats there are also symbolic drills, with the Indian Air Force practicing landing on an expressway in Uttar Pradesh by its Rafale, Su-30 and Jaguar fighter jets to demonstrate ‘operational readiness’. In response Pakistan test-fired its Abdali ballistic missile that can carry a nuclear warhead and has a range of 450km.&nbsp;
The danger is that with ultra-nationalist rhetoric and the beating the war drums by both sides, India’s government and Pakistan’s military may have to ‘do something’ to appease domestic public opinion. But any tactical strike, an artillery exchange, or territorial incursion could quickly escalate out of control.
Expecting an Indian retaliation for the Pahalgam killings, Pakistan is using<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/interfaith-collaboration-for-nuclear-disarmament"> nuclear deterrence </a>and warning of “catastrophic consequences”. The two neighbours came close to a nuclear exchange in 2019 after an attack on the Indian military in Kashmir, and prompt international intervention led by the United States cooled tensions.&nbsp;
This time, the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/trump-shock-wave-hits-nepal">Trump administration</a> is too distracted and not as engaged. Pakistan has denied it was responsible for the terrorist attack and called on Washington to stop a possible Indian retaliation. India and Pakistan have stopped overflights by each other’s airlines, and some international carriers have even stopped flying over Pakistan fearing an air war.
Washington, Beijing, the UN and the EU have all urged restraint. Iran, which has good relations with both India and Pakistan has sent its foreign minister to urge both countries not to go into a tit-for-tat war. Iran has its own nuclear flashpoint to worry about with tensions in Israel, &nbsp;Yemen and Syria.
India and Pakistan both share similar problems of joblessness, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/why-nepal-s-poverty-rate-is-stuck">poverty </a>and <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/climate-change-new-threat-to-nepal-s-rhinos">environmental threats</a>. Neither side needs the threat of a senseless war, and we in the neighbourhood do not need it either.&nbsp;
Kunda Dixit
This Editorial is brought to you by <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/" target="_blank">Nepali Times</a>, in collaboration with <a href="https://inpsjapan.com/en/" target="_blank">INPS Japan</a> and <a href="https://sgi-peace.org/" target="_blank">Soka Gakkai International</a>, in consultative status with UN ECOSOC.

Nukes in the neighbourhood

The streets of Patan are alive this month with lavender jacaranda trees under rain-washed skies as <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/the-red-god-rises-again-in-patan">the chariot of Rato Matsyendranath</a> is pulled across town. This is the festival of the rain god, and inevitably the heavens opened up and pre-monsoon showers pelted the chariot as it started being pulled in Pulchok last week. Thousands of devotees, onlookers and the chariot procession organisers thronged the streets on the first day last week. The rhythmic cymbals and drums exuded a vibrant energy as the enormous four wheels turned and the chariot lurched.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025051007050_81df97744db16f732a419dc1f1579d235ce3df37642b078f50b83bd4bd026688.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="2025051007050_81df97744db16f732a419dc1f1579d235ce3df37642b078f50b83bd4bd026688" data-rendition-name="original" width="1000" height="1503" loading="lazy" alt="Divine chariot"> </figure>  The<a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/Red-rain-god,3141"> red rain god</a> has Hindu and Buddhist antecedents, alternatively called Bungadya and<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/kathmandu-s-gravity-defying-chariot-festival"> Karunamaya</a> — reflecting Kathmandu Valley’s syncretic mixture of the two religions.&nbsp; “Bungadya is a profoundly <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/12-full-opinion/marketing-the-intangible">intangible form of heritage</a>,” explains heritage expert Monalisa Maharjan. “It embodies traditional knowledge,<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/multimedia/reviving-nepal-s-craft"> artisanal skills passed down through generations</a>. Local communities and specific families have specified roles in being custodians of the heritage, ensuring their survival over the centuries.” There are many legends and stories about this annual tradition. Lichhavi king Narendra Dev is supposed to have brought Rato Matsyendranath from Assam to Kathmandu Valley to convince Guru Gorakhnath to lift a spell that created a two-year drought in Kathmandu.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250510050520_347a9a398f8a9abc4a7fb4e2774fde8264cccbdce8bdab23851ab3f0e73c3e8a.jpg" data-media-id="editor_6" data-image-id="20250510050520_347a9a398f8a9abc4a7fb4e2774fde8264cccbdce8bdab23851ab3f0e73c3e8a" data-rendition-name="original" width="1503" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Divine chariot"> </figure>  Matsyendranath was Gorakhnath’s mentor, and upon seeing him, the serpents were released, unleashing the rains. The chariot festival honours the return of this life-giving rain. The deity is seen as an icon for thriving agriculture, t<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/before-the-next-monsoon">he arrival of monsoon</a> showers, and the welfare of the community. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/the-reign-of-the-god-of-rain">The reign of the god of rain</a>, Vidhu Prakash Kayastha Till this day, the Rato Matsyendranath festival is no ordinary celebration. Patan does not sleep for a month as the chariot is pulled through various neighbourhoods. It unfolds at a state level with the president (formerly the king) attending the climax of the Bhoto Jatra in Jawalakhel later this month.&nbsp; The intergenerational transmission of tradition is unique in the world, and the reason the festival is one of the most vibrant cultural expressions that thrives despite inroads of modernity. The other unique aspect is that it is a transnational festival, binding Patan with Guwahati in the Indian state of Assam.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025051005058_8bc685ada13045d863b28e3eed91c931da2b510714586af6fd7eb5d1e298a24a.jpg" data-media-id="editor_9" data-image-id="2025051005058_8bc685ada13045d863b28e3eed91c931da2b510714586af6fd7eb5d1e298a24a" data-rendition-name="original" width="1000" height="1503" loading="lazy" alt="Divine chariot"> </figure>  “Unlike Nepal, where the deity commands grandeur and devotion, many in Assam are unaware of Rato Matsyendranath,” says Khagen Sharma of Gauhati University, which convened <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-assam-connection-revived">a symposium in February in Guwahati on the rain god</a>. Attending was a delegation led by Lalitpur Mayor Chiribabu Maharjan, organisers of the festival, and builders of the chariot. After the symposium, a committee was formed to explore and revive the tradition in Assam as well. Although the team had planned to visit Nepal this month, logistical challenges delayed the trip. Still, there are plans to build a Guru Matsyendranath statue in Assam to reestablish regular worship practices in the Guwahati shrine.&nbsp; The vines used to build the chariot in Patan are sourced from the jungles of Assam. But Sharma notes that in recent years unclear regulations have blocked the official import of the vines, although they are still brought to Nepal informally. The <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/makers-of-machhindranath,2204">chariot making</a> has also had a taste of modernisation in recent times. In the past, even a single nail or piece of steel was avoided. But over time, the wooden structure, particularly the shaft between the wheels, has been replaced with bronze. When that too proved unstable, metal clamps were introduced, which have become a pragmatic compromise.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250510050524_b2a819a5791612f14c81d30fc393dbd3f99f0c64b90a9110e8b0855d944bfa93.jpg" data-media-id="editor_12" data-image-id="20250510050524_b2a819a5791612f14c81d30fc393dbd3f99f0c64b90a9110e8b0855d944bfa93" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="998" loading="lazy" alt="Divine chariot"> </figure>  Another welcome change is the focus on safety. Builders climbing the chariot’s tower now wear harnesses and there are efforts in crowd control. The most visible change in recent years has been the involvement of Patan’s enthusiastic youth in the festival — the tradition is now passing to a new generation. Says Matsyendranath expert Vidhu Kayastha: “There is more energy, the young people in red t-shirts this year were very organised, these modern touches aren’t diluting our culture, they’re keeping it alive in new forms.” He adds, “We are <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/searching-for-a-homeland-away-from-home">reconnecting with our roots</a>, we have more resources, more awareness than ever before. We must not be swept away by western values that may not serve us, and in some ways, cause more harm than good. We must revive our own culture.”&nbsp;

Divine chariot

In 2025, two seemingly disconnected acts of violence shattered the illusion of stability in the region. In March, <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/16f7f947-1e96-4206-9844-891378adc683" target="_blank">militants hijacked a passenger train</a> near the Bolan Pass in Balochistan, executing soldiers in cold blood. A month later, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/22/world/asia/kashmir-terrorist-attack.html" target="_blank">gunmen in Kashmir’s</a> Pahalgam Valley massacred tourists. 
In both Islamabad and New Delhi, <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/4/25/were-cursed-kashmiris-under-attack-across-india-after-pahalgam-killings" target="_blank">the reaction was reflexive:</a> condemn the violence, <a href="https://www.economist.com/asia/2025/04/22/india-and-pakistan-could-come-to-blows-over-kashmir" target="_blank">blame external enemies</a>, declare the situation contained. But South Asia’s leaders are not fighting terrorists alone. They are fighting the consequences of their own betrayals.
Across <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-26272897" target="_blank">Balochistan</a>, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-south-asia-11693674" target="_blank">Kashmir</a>, <a href="https://www.crisisgroup.org/asia/south-asia/india/346-finding-way-out-festering-conflict-indias-manipur" target="_blank">Manipur</a>, and beyond, decades of <a href="https://www.amnesty.org/en/projects/enforced-disappearance-in-south-asia/" target="_blank">enforced disappearances</a>, broken promises, and brute militarisation have hollowed out the social contracts meant to hold these nations together. The grievances that drove rebellions from the 1940s through the 1990s – demands for dignity, recognition, and political agency – were never meaningfully addressed. They were buried beneath asphalt and propaganda, paved over by development projects and security checkpoints.
States may claim victory. But their victories are mirages, dissolving the moment anyone looks too closely. South Asia’s unfinished wars are not relics of a violent past. They are live ammunition, loaded into the future.
<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/mar/24/he-only-wanted-revenge-the-bloody-insurgency-in-balochistan-gaining-lethal-momentum" target="_blank">Balochistan</a> has been at war with Pakistan for most of its modern history. Rich in gas, minerals, and coastline, the province has been plundered for decades under the language of national development. 
Projects like the <a href="https://eastasiaforum.org/2020/11/26/pakistans-three-evils-cpec-and-good-governance/" target="_blank">China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)</a> promise progress but deliver exclusion: minerals are mined, ports are secured, but Baloch homes are raided. 
The insurgency endures not because of foreign conspiracies, as Islamabad endlessly insists, but because the Pakistani state remains incapable of seeing its <a href="https://thebalochistanpost.net/2025/01/enforced-disappearances-in-balochistan-in-december-2024-tbp-report/" target="_blank">Baloch citizens</a> as anything other than a security problem to be managed.
In <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/ranisingh/2016/07/12/kashmir-in-the-worlds-most-militarized-zone-violence-after-years-of-comparative-calm/" target="_blank">Kashmir</a>, the Indian government claims to have <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/08/world/asia/kashmir-village-defense-committees.html" target="_blank">“normalised” the valley</a> after revoking its autonomy in 2019. It <a href="https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/conflict-between-india-and-pakistan" target="_blank">looks a lot like occupation</a>. Soldiers outnumber local leaders, dissent is criminalised, internet shutdowns suffocate public life. Tourism campaigns and investment summits cannot erase a generation raised under curfew and surveillance.
<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-66260730" target="_blank">Manipur’s descent into ethnic bloodshed</a> in 2023 exposed another fault line Delhi prefers to ignore. Long-simmering tensions between the Meitei and Kuki communities erupted into violence that shattered any illusions of northeastern integration. The central government’s delayed, politicised response made clear what many Manipuris had always suspected: they are citizens of India only when convenient.
Even the <a href="https://msf.org.au/rohingya-worlds-largest-stateless-population" target="_blank">Rohingya, stateless and exiled from Myanmar</a>, find themselves entangled in South Asia’s ethnonationalist calculus. Fleeing genocide, they are criminalised anew in Bangladesh and India – trapped between the countries that reject them and the memories that refuse to let them go.
South Asia’s states have excelled at suppressing rebellion. But failed at extinguishing the reasons rebellions rise in the first place. And the wars South Asia tries to forget at home have found new life abroad.
Across <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-06-17/modis-indian-government-accused-of-spying-silencing-critics/103974414" target="_blank">Canada, Australia, Britain, and the United States</a>, diasporic communities have become memory-keepers and, increasingly, <a href="https://www.business-standard.com/world-news/khalistan-supporters-hold-protest-outside-indian-consulate-in-vancouver-123092600087_1.html" target="_blank">the agitators</a> for the struggles their home states would rather erase.
Khalistan flags fly outside Indian consulates in Vancouver and <a href="https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/punjab/perturbed-over-waving-of-khalistani-flags-at-an-event-in-melbourne-india-warns-australia-of-khalistan-separatists-and-their-links-with-terror-groups-458320/" target="_blank">Melbourne</a>. Tamil activists march through London, demanding accountability for the <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/5/19/grim-reminder-sri-lankas-tamils-mark-15-years-since-end-of-civil-war" target="_blank">massacres in Mullivaikkal</a>. Kashmiri protests in Washington and New York refuse to let India’s crackdown slip into diplomatic amnesia.
For host countries, these movements pose uncomfortable questions. Freedom of expression collides with fears of extremism. Clashes erupt between communities carrying wounds that their new homelands.
Meanwhile, South Asian states pursue their adversaries across borders. India faces allegations of <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/canada-says-india-home-minister-ordered-campaign-against-sikh-activist-rcna177972" target="_blank">targeting Sikh activists for assassination in Canada</a> and the <a href="https://www.npr.org/2024/10/27/g-s1-29561/sikh-separatist-assassination-india" target="_blank">United States</a>. Pakistan continues to court Kashmiri separatists abroad while crushing Baloch dissent at home. <a href="https://apnews.com/article/sri-lanka-tamils-civil-war-dead-5b372b0bba567837c5a4d94250040e7d" target="_blank">Sri Lanka</a> lobbies furiously to brand Tamil diaspora organisations as fronts for terrorism, even as it stonewalls investigations into its own wartime atrocities.
The old insurgencies have not been defeated. They have been globalised. South Asia’s governments have long mistaken silence for stability.
In Punjab, India broke the back of the <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/06/india/india-canada-sikh-khalistan-analysis-intl-hnk/index.html" target="_blank">Khalistan insurgency</a> through brute force. The fields grew green again, the trains ran on time. But the wounds were never closed, the <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/why-is-indias-khalistan-separatist-movement-on-the-rise/a-65081729" target="_blank">movement’s heart beats</a> not in Amritsar but in Brampton and Surrey.
In Sri Lanka, the <a href="https://www.academia.edu/4738983/The_Man_Who_Destroyed_Eelam" target="_blank">military crushed the Tamil Tigers</a> with <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2011/01/17/death-of-the-tiger" target="_blank">overwhelming brutality in 2009</a>. <a href="https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3264148/we-want-our-children-back-sri-lankan-families-still-demanding-justice-their-missing-loved-ones" target="_blank">Tamil families still search for their missing</a>, still mourn their dead – and still organise across the diaspora for justice that remains undelivered.
In Kashmir, Delhi boasts of new <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2023/2/4/kashmir-is-bleeding-its-economy" target="_blank">highways and investment corridors</a>, showcasing the region as a trophy of unity. But when the visitors leave and the cameras are packed away, <a href="https://harvardlawreview.org/print/vol-134/from-domicile-to-dominion-indias-settler-colonial-agenda-in-kashmir/" target="_blank">the checkpoints, the raids, and the quiet despair remain.</a>
Victory parades fade. Grievance endures. Suppressing insurgency may end battles. It does not end the ideas that fueled them. In a region where <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/23/world/asia/kashmir-attack-india-pakistan.html" target="_blank">history is rarely past</a>, and memory is rarely voluntary, states that rule through repression are only ever buying time. And often, not very much.
South Asia’s unfinished wars are not accidents. They are the inevitable consequences of states that confuse conquest with consent, and erasure with reconciliation. They cannot legislate memory out of existence.
Every <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c15qyyzz89lo" target="_blank">disappeared son in Balochistan</a>, every <a href="https://medium.com/the-wvoice/the-half-widows-in-kashmir-fef80c6b88e9" target="_blank">half-widow in Kashmir</a>, every <a href="https://www.doctorswithoutborders.org/what-we-do/focus/rohingya-refugee-crisis" target="_blank">refugee child born stateless in a Rohingya camp</a> carries forward the memory of betrayal – a memory that outlives soldiers, politicians, and peace accords alike.
The region’s future will not be decided by GDP figures or infrastructure projects alone. It will be decided by whether its governments can summon the political courage to face the truths they have long suppressed – or whether they will continue down a path <a href="https://theconversation.com/india-is-using-the-g20-summit-to-further-its-settler-colonial-ambitions-in-kashmir-205166" target="_blank">where forgetting is demanded</a>, and rebellion becomes inevitable.
Shyam Tekwani is a professor at the Daniel K. Inouye Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies in Hawaii. This <a href="https://dkiapcss.edu/nexus_articles/ghosts-at-the-border-south-asias-unfinished-wars/" target="_blank">article</a> was originally published on <a href="https://dkiapcss.edu/security-nexus/" target="_blank">DKI APCSS Security Nexus.</a> The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of DKI APCSS, the Department of Defense, or the US Government. The appearance of external hyperlinks does not constitute endorsement by the United States Department of Defense (DoD) of the linked websites, or the information, products, or services contained therein. DoD does not exercise any editorial, security, or other control over the information you may find at these sites.

Balochistan to Kashmir

Most Nepalis thought they had seen the last of it after <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/11-56-25-april-2015-wkc9q2an">the 25 April 7.8 magnitude </a>earthquake ten years ago. But the Himalaya had more surprises in store. On 12 May, another 7.3 magnitude tremor that some said was an aftershock, but was strong enough to itself be a major earthquake, struck Dolakha.&nbsp; Not many people had heard of Singati till then — a cluster of houses by the Tama Kosi River along a narrow gorge that is the roadhead to Rolwaling Valley.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250508110520_57b6e316656851f71eca56ca6f98d9bbcc820c1a00d62af3c990725b4361244d.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20250508110520_57b6e316656851f71eca56ca6f98d9bbcc820c1a00d62af3c990725b4361244d" data-rendition-name="original" width="1000" height="1500" loading="lazy" alt="Climate magnifies earthquake risk in Nepal village NT"> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250508110520_016534fb2b6a79957402281cda768efb83a146786377e39e11df3e251d37159e.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20250508110520_016534fb2b6a79957402281cda768efb83a146786377e39e11df3e251d37159e" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Climate magnifies earthquake risk in Nepal village NT"> </figure>  It was here that dozens were killed on 25 April in the first earthquake. Hundreds of <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/Singati-rising-from-rubble-rebuilding,3703">Singati survivors</a> had lined up for food and relief supplies in the morning of 12 May when the second earthquake triggered a rock slide that buried a nearby camp. At least 50 people were killed. &nbsp; Three hours later, a US Marine Corps UH-1Y Venom helicopter landed in a nearby cornfield to pick up the wounded, and flew off. The aircraft lost contact with air traffic control in Kathmandu and its wreckage was located high on Kalinchok four days later. Six American servicemen, two Nepal Army soldiers, and five wounded civilians from Singati were killed. Today, Singati bears little physical scar of the multiple tragedies that struck the town ten years ago. Most <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/multimedia/bungamati-builds-back">houses have been rebuilt</a> as urban-style concrete structures, and Singati has become an economic hub on the road leading up to several hydropower plants and a<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/off-the-beaten-trek-in-nepal"> popular trekking destination</a>.&nbsp; The town looks less like a village and more like a suburb of the Dolakha district headquarter of Charikot, 47km away.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250508110520_196f341d1df1403ba133e5dfeb837eec20d7cbcb4c8c56b17cc5598810de5df2.jpg" data-media-id="editor_6" data-image-id="20250508110520_196f341d1df1403ba133e5dfeb837eec20d7cbcb4c8c56b17cc5598810de5df2" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Climate magnifies earthquake risk in Nepal village NT"> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250508110524_ae66c4a92430f67db51b5e11e017059eedfbac4cb18c8e073f2a50cca1fe904e.jpg" data-media-id="editor_7" data-image-id="20250508110524_ae66c4a92430f67db51b5e11e017059eedfbac4cb18c8e073f2a50cca1fe904e" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Climate magnifies earthquake risk in Nepal village NT"> </figure>  “The demand for construction material, cement, iron rods and bricks peaked after the earthquakes,” says Suresh Khadka, who owns a hardware business here and now supplies material to the 456MW Upper Tama Kosi hydropower project that is undergoing repairs after it was damaged by a landslide last year. The demand for cement boomed since most residents believe, not necessarily correctly, that <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/in-a-disastrous-state">cement houses are safer</a>. Although Khadka did well selling construction material after the earthquake, he worries that most new structures do not follow seismic-resistant building codes.&nbsp; The construction boom financed by bank loans has in turn forced many from Singati to <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/making-overseas-migration-better">migrate overseas for work</a> so they can service their debt.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250508110524_50caa4530bd5ff9120cf7ab70a62173846d337ef448ff8bac339f3faa375a9e2.jpg" data-media-id="editor_10" data-image-id="20250508110524_50caa4530bd5ff9120cf7ab70a62173846d337ef448ff8bac339f3faa375a9e2" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Climate magnifies earthquake risk in Nepal village NT"> <figcaption>Suresh Khadka</figcaption> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250508110520_ef8b7d3993fc3b5df852bbf952feb3fbabc96d6883b0d5eb74ee5c60f4123b83.jpg" data-media-id="editor_11" data-image-id="20250508110520_ef8b7d3993fc3b5df852bbf952feb3fbabc96d6883b0d5eb74ee5c60f4123b83" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Climate magnifies earthquake risk in Nepal village NT"> <figcaption>Phu Doma Sherpa (right)</figcaption> </figure>  “My family had no choice but to borrow money to rebuild our home since the government compensation was not enough, and ten years later we are still paying off the loan,” says Phu Doma Sherpa, 60. Because of the shortage of qualified masons and proper seismic engineering, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/structural-problems">many of the buildings are of questionable building standards </a>and the traditional architecture has been abandoned, admits Kul Bahadur Budathoki, deputy chair of the municipality. “But these buildings were more expensive than what the government grants could cover, many people here are heavily in debt and the men have <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/every-day-is-closer-to-pay-day">migrated to the Gulf to pay their loans</a>,” Budathoki says.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250508110520_32f89e97b7e757fc9286c0bbb671f48ea8d4468e9634fa646d7247c650ad8480.jpg" data-media-id="editor_14" data-image-id="20250508110520_32f89e97b7e757fc9286c0bbb671f48ea8d4468e9634fa646d7247c650ad8480" data-rendition-name="original" width="1501" height="1079" loading="lazy" alt="Climate magnifies earthquake risk in Nepal village NT"> <figcaption>Kul Bahadur Budathoki</figcaption> </figure>  Singati is in a multi-hazard zone. The <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/Singati,3091">12 May 2015 earthquake </a>could have led to the collapse of Nepal’s largest glacial lake, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/stairway-to-heaven">Tso Rolpa</a>, upstream. Due to global warming, the glacier has turned into an expanding lake 3.5km long, and its collapse would have unleashed a catastrophic Himalayan tsunami down the Tama Kosi Valley, with Singati directly in its path. Singati has literally risen from the ashes of 2015, with its residents beginning to recover from the trauma and financial toll. But it is not out of danger as <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/climate-breakdown-linked-to-thame-flood">climate breakdown </a>magnifies the risk from future earthquakes.

nepal-india