<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114131144/637238749c7e80680e0c7388jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="3908" height="2767"/><figcaption>The Karnali is the Nepal-China border at Hilsa. At left is Nepal and at right China. Photo: Nabraj Lama</figcaption></figure>Nepal’s northern border is demarcated by the main chain of the Himalaya, but west of Langtang the highest mountains like Manaslu, Annapurna, and Dhaulagiri are completely inside Nepal. In fact, nearly one-fifth of Nepal in the districts of Manang, Mustang, Dolpo, Mugu and Humla are actually beyond the mountains.Year-round mobility from one side of the mountains to the other used to be difficult. But despite that, the indigenous people on both sides of the Himalaya have maintained trade and cultural links.The religious, socio-cultural, political and economic relations between Nepal and Tibet are centuries old, but the context of these links have changed in both degree and scope. After monasteries in Tibet were destroyed during the Cultural Revolution, many monks fled south and established replica shrines in Nepal and India.Monasteries in Humla therefore have association with those in Khojarnath, Taklakot, Rakshas Tal, and Gyangdrak to the north of the border.Ancient Tibet is divided into three parts by altitude, Mad Domad (Khamsum; Lower part), Par Utsang (Ruzhi; Middle part), and Tod Ngari (Kovsum; Higher part). The altitude of Humla and Tod Ngari being similar, their socio-cultural arrangements are also identical. The culture and traditional practices of the ancient Khas kingdom, Zhang Zhung kingdom, and Tibetan culture are still preserved in their ancient form in Humla.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114131144/637238779c7e80680e0c7389jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1008" height="988">Songs sung during festivals in Tibet are still practiced in their original form, and the traditional furniture and Chinese brocade are still intact in Humla. Similarly, Losar (New Year) celebrations of Humla and the Tod Ngari region of Tibet are held simultaneously.Till three generations ago, the people of northern Humla used to depend upon Tibet's rulers for protection and justice and paid two types of taxes: Mi thral (people) and Sa thral (land). They paid the land tax to Nepal, and the people tax to Tibet.The Tibetan government was called Dewa Zhung (the government of Peace and Good Governance). There was a system of Gowa (headmanship) and Chekyap, who collected taxes in Humla on behalf of the Tibetan authority from various regions of Humla. There is now no provision for sending tax from Humla to the Tibetan side.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114131144/6372387a9c7e80680e0c738ajpeg.jpg" alt="" width="4756" height="3023"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Humla and the Karnali are today a far-flung region of Nepal, but it used to be a prosperous land till as recently as three generations ago. The Upper Humla people were primarily dependent on animal husbandry and used to take livestock to graze on the Tibetan Plateau every summer. Such seasonal migrations opened an opportunity for trade, and the large herds of sheep and goats provided the transport facilities for trade across the Himalayas. Such caravan trade fulfilled the basic needs of each side, increasing access to items and trade.But a boundary protocol signed between Nepal and China on 23 January, 1963 was the beginning of the end of this crossborder use of pastureland. This drastically affected the livelihood of the communities in northern Humla.Chhakka Bahadur Lama, Humla’s MP to Parliament says there were two provisions in the 1963 agreement that affected the people of Limi in Humla. People on the Nepal side needed to reduce the number of livestock gradually and develop grazing land within Nepal itself.A crossborder grazing agreement with China ended in 1990, and was never renewed. Many herders sold their cattle and changed their profession, leading to the economic decline of the Humlis.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114131144/6372387d9c7e80680e0c738bjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="3886" height="2353"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>During and after the Maoist insurgency in which Humla was affected, border controls were tightened further because of Chinese fears that the insurgency in Nepal would influence the Tibetans. The Nepal government was also wary of possible arms smuggling for the Maoists from across the border. A permit system was introduced that limited the mobility of people in border districts to 30km on each side of the border. The duration of stay was also limited to a month. Other traditional trade routes between Nepal and China were also closed.It has been 17 years since the end of the Maoist conflict, and the former revolutionaries have been in government several times to the present, but the border restrictions remain in place. Humla, for instance, continues to pay the price for this with the end of the traditional barter system and Nepal imports more than it exports.Across Nepal’s Himalayan region the people are trapped between marginalisation and discrimination by Nepal and China, especially because of the sensitivities about Tibet. There have been instances in the past of people from Humla being regarded suspiciously in Lhasa if they speak Tibetan.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114131144/637238809c7e80680e0c738cjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1765" height="954"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Nepalis in Humla speak Tibetan just like Nepalis in the Tarai speak Hindi. It is unjust to discriminate against Nepalis who have a different mother tongue that happens to be the same as the ones spoken on the other sides of the northern or southern borders.Many people from Humla have changed their Tibetan names to Khas language while making their citizenship certificates. The real name of MP Chhakka Bahadur Lama himself is Tshewang Lama, but a government official told him ‘Tshewang’ was difficult to pronounce and changed his name in his citizenship certificate.The Chinese authorities should also understand and distinguish between people with political links and local people of the Himalayan region of Nepal. Just because monasteries in Humla have a shared history with Tibet does not mean that they are associated with the Dalai Lama.Nabraj Lama is a research scholar and his work focuses on geopolitics, indigenism, international affairs. <a href="mailto:mail@nabrajlama.com">mail@nabrajlama.com</a>Read also:  <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/the-salt-of-the-earth/">The salt of the earth</a>, Jag Bahadur Budha

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Between a rock and a hard place in Humla

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JyxPQmUhSRo&amp;feature=youtu.beThe <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/dazzling-dolpo/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">dazzling beauty of Dolpo</a> is confined mostly to the ink-blue waters of Phoksundo Lake, which overshadows the district’s other destinations.The remoter valleys of Nepal’s most remote region hide the ancient monasteries and culture of the <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/Dolpa-Nepal-preserve-pristine-remoteness,1632" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bon religion</a>, an animist faith that is said to have existed in the Tibetan rim lands for 18,000 years – long before Buddhism got here.Today, Bon Po has been overlaid by Buddhism and later Communism in Tibet, but it still thrives in parts of the plateau that today lie in Nepal, like Dolpo. The 500-year-old Thasung Tholing Bon Monastery, with the Pungmo Gompa, are the jewels in the crown of Bon animism.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110814110/636a53479c7e80680e052342jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000"/><figcaption>NATURAL FAITH: The Thasung Tholing Bon Monastery on the slope above Phoksundo Lake is one of the two centres of the faith in Dolpo that pre-dates the advent of Buddhism here. Photos: SONAM CHOEYKI LAMA</figcaption></figure>Thasung Tholing is a cluster of nine private monasteries and one community gompa a 15-minute walk from Tso village. What is distinctive about the adherents of Bon Po here is their <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=16604#.XVAGy94za70" target="_blank" rel="noopener">deep reverence for nature</a>, so that conservation of the ecosystem is not some outside concept but deeply ingrained in the belief system.Killing for meat was banned, so many villagers in this arid land used to chase wild animals to the edge of the cliff, where they fell to their deaths.“Appalled by the cruelty, Lama Treton Tsewang Tshultrim founded this monastery many centuries ago so that the killing would stop and the wildlife would be protected,” explained Kenpo Nyima Samduk Lama, the present head monk of Thasung Tso. Thasung means ‘protected cliff’, and tso is ‘lake’.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110814110/636a534b9c7e80680e052343jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Through the centuries till today, the monastery acts as a religious warden of the holy <a href="https://nepalitimes.atavist.com/stairway-to-heaven" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Phoksundo Lake</a> and its surroundings, protecting its wildlife and restoring the ecological balance of the mountains.Elderly villagers near the lake remember when musk deer and other animals came down to the shores to drink water, and roamed the forests surrounding the monastery. With poaching the numbers declined, but as the monastery actively revives traditional conservation customs the animals have started to return.The Bon worship the landscape, mountains, lakes, rocks, rivers and wildlife. In short, nature is sacred, as illustrated in this chant in their dialect: ‘lhe lhu zhi dag’, which means ‘we are guardians of nature’. Generations of Dolpo Pa, therefore, have grown up with an innate understanding of how nature is linked to their daily lives.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110814110/636a534f9c7e80680e052344jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000">The other centre is the monastery in Pungmo (in map, right) which spreads a deep reverence for mountains, trees, lakes and rivers.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110814110/636a53529c7e80680e052345jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="546" height="788">Dolpo, NepalThe Bon monastery is a habitat for musk deer, blue sheep and other small mammals, which are prey for the snow leopard and the Himalayan wolf. Given its relatively recent genesis, Phoksundo does not have fish and conservationists say care must be taken not to introduce any alien aquatic species.“We are now seeing more and more snow leopards on the prowl in the forests around the monastery, and in the cliffs above. In winter, when there are fewer people, they even venture out to the shore to drink water,” said resident monk Geshe Nyima Samduk, showing visitors around the shrine.Although <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/saving-shey-phoksundo-in-nepal,3596" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Shey Phoksundo National Park</a> was set up in 1984, it was the long-established Bon tradition that really helped conservation on the ground, says snow leopard researcher Tshiring Lhamu Lama. “Local conservation tradition was very important for preserving the nature and culture of Dolpo, and the two are linked. The national park is only 35 years old, but the gompas have been here for 500 years,” she added.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110814110/636a53549c7e80680e052346jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Besides Thasung Tholing in Ringmo, the other cradle of Bon civilisation in Dolpo is the less travelled Pungmo Valley. This wild and scenic landscape on the lap of Mt Kanjiroba is two hours off the main Dolpo Trail, and few visitors ever come here. The villagers worship Kanjiroba as the ‘ruler of kings’, just as they revere the cliffs, streams, waterfalls, trees and ravines that make up the topography.The local Bon dialect has words for the divine: Yul Lha (lord of the land), Yul Sa Sol Sa (ritual for nature gods), Sman Mo (female spirits). The faith is so strong that locals believe that transgressing nature will bring down wrath and misfortune: livestock will perish, crops will fail and the salt caravans will be stuck in blizzards. The nature gods could also retaliate with hailstorms, earthquakes and disease.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110814110/636a53579c7e80680e052347jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1125">“We are not allowed to eat meat that is slaughtered here. We only eat animals that die of natural causes. We are not supposed to cut trees because they are gods too, and so are the rivers and lakes,” says Yungdrung Lama, whose family lineage carries the Bon tradition.Larke Lama is the elected ward chair in Pungmo village and says the Bon way of life is integral to everything his community does. Locals believe they have to perform the Yul Sa Sol Sa ritual to ensure a good harvest. Lama says, “sometimes the weather is bad for crops, so we pray to the sky gods to restore the natural equilibrium.”<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110814110/636a535a9c7e80680e052348jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1250" height="833"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110814110/636a535d9c7e80680e052349jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="597" height="504"><h2>No yarsa = no yaks = no caravans = no salt = no butter</h2><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110814110/636a535f9c7e80680e05234ajpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="842"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>For thousands of years, the Dolpo Pa have survived on a bi-annual journey back and forth across the Himalaya. But the winds of change have affected the ancestral occupation of the yak caravans that used to take grain and cotton up from the lower valleys to barter for rock salt and carpets from Tibet.The modern monetised economy, the <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/GUEST-COLUMN/Shey-Phoksundo-national-park-may-soon-become-a-bus-park,1036" target="_blank" rel="noopener">spread of transportation</a> in Tibet and Nepal, education and out-migration have all contributed to erode this traditional practice. And now added to this list of factors is climate change, which has made weather unpredictable in the trans-Himalayan valleys.This year, unseasonal spring blizzards closed the high passes that the caravans use for trading. Tourism was hit, as trekkers were stranded.Dawa Gurung and his family take his yaks and horses into the pasture of Dhanigad, crossing the Baga La pass at 5,000m. “We heard the China border is opening soon and we need to go to Chang (Tibet) but this year I do not think I will go — the trail is still treacherous and there is not much to trade,” Gurung said.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110814110/636a53629c7e80680e05234bjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000">The grain-salt barter trade between Nepal and Tibet has now been replaced by just one precious commodity: <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=10912#.XVAD7d4za71" target="_blank" rel="noopener">yarsa</a>, the caterpillar fungus that grows out of the ground in meadows above 4,500m and is prized in Chinese medicine.<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=19382#.XVAHNd4za70" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Yarsa</a> means ‘summer grass’ or ‘winter worm’ in the local dialect and has raised living standards here. But lately, due to over-picking and climate change, yarsa harvests have slumped. Dolpo traders used to sell yarsa across the border in Tibet and buy rice, sugar, blankets and even solar panels in China.“This year it snowed continuously from February to April, and in Saldang half the yaks died. The melting snow also made the ground soggy, and all the yarsa rotted,” said Tashi Dhondup Lama of Tso village.The weather, crops and health of livestock are so closely tied that the loss of yarsa and yaks has meant no trade with Tibet, which means no salt and no butter. As a result, for most villagers in Dolpo this year there are no ingredients to make the salty Tibetan butter tea.

Bon voyage

Nepali Congress (NC) President Gagan Thapa's candidacy in Sarlahi-4 has thrust this Madhes constituency into rare national focus. If Thapa wins and the NC emerges as the largest party, Sarlahi-4 will send Nepal's next prime minister to Parliament. But if he does not, Nepal’s grand old party will face the next years in the opposition to fight another day. There is a troubling paradox in Sarlahi-4 where the district bordering the Indian state of Bihar has been a battleground for national politicians with fierce electoral competition, all while remaining one of the region's most underserved and underdeveloped constituencies.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485.png" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485" data-rendition-name="original" width="1802" height="1276" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: MADHES PAHARA MEDIA</figcaption> </figure>  Ever since Mahant Thakur split from NC in 2008 to form the Tarai Madhes Loktantrik Party, the district has seen rotating political alliances and fragmented votes. Yet, despite 18 years of candidates promising change irrigation schemes remain incomplete, market access for farmers has not improved, unemployment is high.&nbsp; On election day, voters here marked their ballots with fingers stained by dye from the Holi festival the day before. The road leading to Barathawa Bazar was deserted for the most part, except for some youth riding in motorcycles. This is where the high-profile contest between Gagan Thapa and RSP nominee Amresh Singh is being staged. Among the other aspirants is 27-year-old UML candidate Amnish Yadav, the son of former MP Shiv Pujan Yadav. The Yadavs are a political family with considerable caste influence in the constituency. In 2022 Yadav’s daughter Madhumala Yadav received over 14,000 votes here, ranking third overall. Yadav was voted MP from the Maoist party, but defected to the UML this time. His other son is the chair of Sarlahi’s Ramnagar Rural Municipality. Sarhali-4 has 121,012 voters, and the Yadav is banking on the 27,000-strong Yadav vote bank. Sarlahi-4 voter Avishek Sah told us he wanted his vote to go to a young nominee and not someone who has been MP thrice already, like Amresh Singh. &nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10" data-rendition-name="original" width="1200" height="1600" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  To make local loyalties even more complicated, Amnish Yadav’s uncle, Harinder Yadav is an active NC member and walked side by side with Gagan Thapa during his door-to-door campaigns.&nbsp; The NC is betting on Thapa getting over 60% of the total votes. Amresh Singh’s tally could be limited to 10,000 votes — that too because of the nationwide RSP wave, and the popularity of its prime ministerial hopeful Balendra (Balen) Shah. “Amresh Singh lost his appeal when he played victim after he was denied a ticket by the NC in 2022,” Harinder Yadav says. Voters we spoke to here agreed with this assessment that Singh did not do much for the district once he got elected in the past, and being a part of the RSP seems to be his biggest asset. “The only reason I voted for Amresh Singh is because Balen is in RSP,” local voter Mahendra Gupta from Barathawa. &nbsp;“This is his last chance to return the people’s trust.”&nbsp; Gupta is aware of the institutional presence of the NC here. The party received the most votes in 2022 local elections, adding that the candidacy of someone as high-profile as Thapa is a positive sign for Sarlahi-4.&nbsp; Other voters like Ruby Gupta are rooting for both the NC and the RSP. “I will vote for Gagan and for Balen,” she says, adding that her FPTP vote will go to Thapa while her PR ballot would be for the RSP. RSP supporters are confident that their candidate will win big because even though many voters may not have openly voiced their support they still voted for the party and candidate. The Balen Wave was not limited to RSP voters, but also to UML candidate Yadav, who said in a gathering that he will be “the voters Balen” if they elect him. He touted his party’s track record in government, and largely campaigned on administrative efficiency, infrastructural expansion, and local service delivery. Amresh Singh ran on the RSP’s anti-establishment brand, promising to fight corruption, challenge traditional party politics, improve basic services such as education, health, jobs, and infrastructure, while pushing for stronger representation and development for Madhes.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="1200" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo:AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  Singh’s rivalry with his NC competitor goes beyond the ballot— he allegedly blames Thapa for being denied the NC ticket in 2022, which led him to win the election from Sarlahi-4 as an independent. &nbsp; For his part, Gagan Thapa focused on a more pragmatic development agenda that includes upgrading roads and irrigation, improving schools and hospitals, supporting farmers, and creating employment opportunities with improved governance at the centre. He also promised to build an engineering college in the constituency.&nbsp; Thapa also promoted his own anti-establishment image within the NC, repeatedly reminding voters on the campaign trail that he represents the aspirations of the youth.&nbsp; On Thursday, as voting progressed, there were violent disruptions in two centres where voting was briefly halted. But Sarlahi district police spokesperson Saroj Rai told Nepali Times that there were no major problems. Police in collaboration with the Nepal Army sent the ballot papers to the district’s counting stations, where the votes are expected to be tallied through the night and the winner announced Friday morning.

Sarlahi-4 nervously watches ballot count

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Nepal election live results

As this report is uploaded, the latest results in Nepal’s election show that the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) is headed for an even bigger sweep than most had predicted.
The RSP was leading by large margins in 49 of 165 constituencies, &nbsp;with the UML, NC and NCP trailing far behind. Prominent political figures from the old parties like K P Oli, Minwndra Prasad Rijal, Ishwar Pokhrel, Bishnu Prasad Poudel, Bimalendra Nidhi all seem headed for defeat.
It does look like the RSP’s bell election symbol is ringing right across Nepal — from cities to the remotest districts in the mountains and plains. The party’s blue colour is sweeping the land.
The Nepali people seem to have sent a clear message that they were throughly dissatisfied with the chronic failure of the three main parties to work in the national interest to create jobs and deliver development. It was also an expression of lingering outrage over the the 8 September massacre outside Parliament. &nbsp;
It now looks almost certain that Balendra Shah will get to be Nepal’s next, and youngest, prime minister. Hopefully he will be leading a cabinet of competent and honest technocrats. It remains to seen how the power equation between Shah and the RSP’s leader, Rabi Lamichhane will play out.
Lamichhane is out of jail on bail for fraud cases which he has called political vendetta by the previous regime. Both he and Shah are charismatic and ambitious. Their working relationship will determine Nepal's political stability and whether it can avoid the political cronyism of the past.
This election was not just about casting votes. It was about standing up to principles and a value system, and respecting the hopes and aspirations of Nepal’s youth. It to push for transparent government and against impunity — including for the gunning down of young Nepalis in cold blood.
<div class="embed-block"><iframe src="https://election-geo-dashboard.pages.dev/" width="100%" height="600" frameborder="0"> </iframe>Live election results as winners of candidates are announced.</div>
CAN DO MAN
Shah got mixed reviews as mayor. He was impulsive and ad hoc, but most people inKathmandu and beyond liked his can-do attitude and unconventional style which stood in sharp contract to the legacy leaders. Over his three year mayorship he showed more maturity and planning capacity.&nbsp;
But he always ran headlong into opposition from the federal government over his urban planning and other initiatives to make Kathmandu more liveable. Coming from a civil and structural engineering background, he was involved in building low-cost housing after the 2015 earthquake.
But his public persona is more tied to his irreverent rap lyrics that stood up for the marginalised underprivileged in society, while exposing the high-handedness and apathy of the state. But this also exposed contradictions because he also used his own municipal guards to beat and chase away street vendors and squatters.
But there is no doubt that a combination of the sharp messaging in his rap videos amplified by the algorithms of social media ignited Nepal’s youth to rise up. It was more about optics and emotion than policy and strategy.
He studied Kathmandu district for five years, visiting experts in every field before announcing his independent candidacy for mayor in 2022. Many like me in his own constitunecy did not know who he was and where he came from.
He is a year younger than my architect son, and I saw in him a reflection of my own son’s commitment to serving the nation. I voted for him to be mayor despite his sometimes erratic behaviour, which could be attributed to his youth.
The best sign of his strategic planning, which unsettled septuagenarian and octogenarian politicians, is the he did not grab the first easy option of becoming prime minister in September when GenZ activists offered him the post.&nbsp;
Joining RSP was a masterstroke, as was his challenge to Oli in Jhapa to project national branding. He needed a party platform and Lamichhane needed a popular prime ministerial persona since he himself could not hold the post.
Shah has shown the capacity to take risks when he believes the value justifies the action for the country. Now, he will have to show more strategic thinking on a national scale, as well as understand the delicate geopolitics of Nepal.&nbsp;
He must rise above the kind of crude social media posts that earned him followers on X, but did nothing to erase his erratic and impulsive image.&nbsp;
Some assume that behind his trademark RayBan shades is a closet dictator, and his past remarks about Hitler are still up on social media. He has in the past shown impatience with criticism, unleashing supporters on social media to troll detractors.&nbsp;
Even so, the public seems willing to place their hope on an educated young man with integrity and a proven record for planning at the helm. By tomorrow it will be clear whether the hope Nepalis have held has been fulfilled, and the coming years will show if the RSP will lead Nepalis to a better future.
The voters seem to have shown the door even to the NC despite the fact that under Gagan Thapa, the party had turned a new leaf. A strong government under Prime Minister Balendra Shah heading a carefully selected cabinet and a strong opposition of the NC, UML and other parties for check and balance may be just what we need for a stable Nepal.&nbsp;
Nepalis have collectively always shown maturity in elections. This time they have given a resounding endorsement for integrity and for good governance.

Bells ring all over Nepal

After Thursday’s election, Nepalis are in a wait-and-watch mode. The Election Commission says counting ballot papers will be expedited this time, and the results for the First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) will start being declared within days. In 2022, it took three weeks for the final results to be tallied.&nbsp;
But winning an election is only half the challenge for the parties, forming a government under parliamentary politics is like a complicated mathematical equation.&nbsp;
In 2022, the Nepali Congress (NC) emerged as the biggest party, winning 89 seats. But the UML with 78 seats and the Maoists with 32 formed a minority government. In fact, Sher Bahadur Deuba did not become PM then despite leading the biggest party in Parliament.
This time, there is an unmistakeable Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) wave led by its prime ministerial candidate, Balendra Shah. Besides his own popularity, Shah represents change which most Nepalis are clamouring for after decades of corrupt and feckless coalitions that did not deliver.&nbsp;
The past months of campaigning has seen massive youth engagement on social media through memes, AI clips, and viral images. Digital content that appeals to emotion rather than policy debate between candidates shape electoral outcomes in Nepal and elsewhere. &nbsp;
Shah represents GenZ aspirations, and was their candidate for prime minister. It was only when he declined that Sushila Karki was nominated. None of the political parties in the recent past -- new, old, or revolutionary — have won enough seats to go it alone.&nbsp;
The most recent majority government was formed by the short-lived Communist Party of Nepal after the UML-Maoist merger in 2022. But that rare two-thirds majority collapsed after a power struggle between K P Oli and Pushpa Kamal Dahal. The only party to have won a majority was the NC in the 1991 and 1999 elections. But it is near impossible for it to repeat this success now, even with Gagan Thapa's rebranding of the party.&nbsp;
We have compiled these possible scenarios for election outcome in order of likelihood:
RSP gets a majority
RSP hits the magic 138 to form a government entirely on its own. Balendra Shah wins Jhapa-5, and becomes the new prime minister at 35, the youngest ever to hold the office in Nepal. But danger lurks: there could be a personality clash between Shah and Lamichhane who are both equally ambitious. History could repeat itself.&nbsp;
RSP wins but does not get a majority
RSP is likely to sweep the most votes, but what if it does not secure enough seats for a majority? It would need a coalition partner and Nepali Communist Party (NCP) under Pushpa Kamal Dahal could fit the bill, but only if it has the numbers. The RSP is not likely to team up with the UML or NC.
The NCP is relatively untainted by the 8 September events, and also has former UML defectors like Madhav Kumar Nepal and Bhim Rawal who could bag their rural vote banks. After all, there are no permanent foes in politics. If the royalist RPP and Tarai-based Janata Samajwadi have enough seats, those could be options for the RSP. &nbsp;
NC is second
The NC under the new leadership of Gagan Thapa could become the second biggest force and form a government with RSP in a power-sharing deal with Shah. This would be the most stable scenario since the RSP and NC have competent and idealistic young technocrats. Thapa himself embodies a strong combination of both old and new politics to navigate the system for more efficient government. But then Thapa and the RSP's Rabi Lamichhane do not get along.
NC and NCP form a majority
If the NC becomes the largest party but not by a big margin, it could join up with the NCP and Ujyalo. Teaming up with the UML would likely face backlash with the party and outside. If Gagan Thapa becomes prime minister he will face internal pressure from both Deuba loyalists. Same old story.
Minority coalition of NC, UML and NCP
RSP becomes the first party but does not get a majority, paving the way for the three legacy parties to cobble together a minority government. While this is possible in Nepal’s parliamentary system, such a scenario is likely to lead to more instability and dissatisfaction among young Nepalis demanding change, and even trigger street unrest. &nbsp;

nepal-tibet-trade

Between a rock and a hard place in Humla

Bon voyage

Sarlahi-4 nervously watches ballot count

Nepal election live results

Bells ring all over Nepal

The magic 138