In math, if only two out of three variables can be together, its permutation can have only three values. The Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist-Centre) and the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist) have teamed up three times since 2017, the last time just four months ago. The Maoists and the Nepali Congress (NC) also got hitched three times.&nbsp; But this is the first time in seven years that the third combination of a NC-UML coalition is being tired out. It was Pushpa Kamal Dahal of the Maoists who, despite being the leader of a much smaller party by a long margin, used his swing vote to take turns hitching up with Sher Bahadur Deuba (NC) and K P Oli (UML). Now, Deuba and Oli have jilted Dahal.&nbsp; Together, the NC and UML have a majority in Parliament to form a new government, but Prime Minister Dahal is refusing to go, saying he will only do so after facing a confidence vote within a month. It is foregone conclusion that Oli will be prime minister for the fourth time, and (if he keeps his promise) hand over to Deuba who will head the government for the sixth time till the next elections in 2027. “The Prime Minister seems to have been taken aback by how suddenly these developments happened,” says political analyst Hari Sharma. “But seeking a confidence vote is a more dignified way for him to go.” Constitutional amendments need a two-thirds majority in both Houses. While the NC and UML have the numbers in the Lower House through support from smaller parties, it will not be possible to obtain a two-thirds majority in the National Assembly without support from the Maoist Center. Sharma adds, “These two parties have come together as a matter of convenience, not principle. A constitutional amendment is only a political cover to justify the alliance.” The NC and the UML say they want to scrap provisions in the 2015 Constitution that gave excluded groups a presence in the legislature through Proportional Representation, saying it led to frequent coalition changes and instability. They have also hinted at doing away with federalism and secularism.&nbsp; “One of the most important parts of the Constitution are inclusivity and proportional representation,” says Sharma. “To see it as a problem that needs a constitutional amendment will be regressive. It would have been more credible if the NC-UML alliance had gone for political or governance reform.” Oli and Deuba tried to give an ideological veneer of the need for constitutional amendment to their secretive midnight pact, but some say it was in essence a joint power grab to offset imminent investigations into scandals that both their top leaders are implicated in: the NC in the fake refugee scam, and the UML in a land grab of a state-owned tea estate in Jhapa.&nbsp; For now, the main priority of the NC-UML is power sharing. The NC is wresting the all-important Home Ministry from the RSP’s Rabi Lamichhane which has been investigating the fake refugee and tea estate scams. Lamichhane himself is being investigated for misappropriating funds from co-operatives. The UML is to get nine ministries, including Finance. Oli had been unhappy with what he called a “Maoist budget” saying there had been no consultation with coalition partners. But the straw that broke the camel’s back was the inability of Dahal and Oli to agree on the lucrative appointment of the head of the Securities Board of Nepal (Sebon).&nbsp; The two parties have also decided to divide up provincial governments with three each, except Madhes Province. There is a geopolitical dimension with China openly backing unity among Communist parties, while India and the West want to thwart a UML-Maoist government. On Wednesday, UML ministers resigned en masse, after the party had urged Prime Minister Dahal to clear the way for a new government. Lamichhane’s RSP has said that it will not be joining the new government, while the monarchist RPP and some smaller parties welcomed the NC-UML alliance.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2024070413078_88fb6f8707ee4b34ec8d67f66b1da002e09c990b6c45c030032279e11f92f53a.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="2024070413078_88fb6f8707ee4b34ec8d67f66b1da002e09c990b6c45c030032279e11f92f53a" data-rendition-name="original" width="1582" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="UML ministers resign NT"> <figcaption>UML ministers resigned en masse on Wednesday after the party withdrew its support of the Pushpa Kamal Dahal government. Photo: PRADEEP RAJ ONTA</figcaption> </figure>  Some experts say an NC-UML alliance of the two biggest mainstream parties will make the government more stable and fulfil the mandate of Nepali voters. Indeed, despite being the first and second largest parties, the NC and UML have been playing mostly supporting roles in alliances with the much smaller Maoist-Centre.&nbsp; Consecutive governments led by Deuba, Oli and Dahal have failed to stimulate the economy, curb inflation, create jobs, or commit to transitional justice. Corruption became endemic during their tenures. Lately, Deuba and Oli were increasingly spooked by Lamichhane’s corruption probes. Bechan Jha, who was arrested last week for involvement in the fake refugee scandal, reportedly had connections right to the top echelons of the NC. And UML leaders were getting anxious about investigations into the tea estate scam. Nepal’s cyberphere is bristling with speculation that investigations to both scandals will now be sidelined. Kathmandu’s populist mayor Balen Shah added fuel to the fire with a telling social media post of Deuba and Oli holding teacups.&nbsp; <div class="embed-block"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet">यो समय गिरिबन्धु चियाको हो । काले काले मिलेर खाऊ भाले । <a href="https://t.co/ayi73w61mI">pic.twitter.com/ayi73w61mI</a>&mdash; Balen Shah (@ShahBalen) <a href="https://twitter.com/ShahBalen/status/1807975048130842936?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 2, 2024</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></div> Nepal’s mainstream leadership must be concerned about the rise of populist parties and the public outrage on social media about their greed and opportunism. They want to amend the Constitution so that smaller populist parties do not have a strong presence in Parliament through proportional representation. In the midst of all this, the RSP suspended General Secretary Mukul Dhakal for his scathing internal report critical of Lamichhane putting his political ambition above the interest of the party. The losers in the fast-paced political developments this week appear to be Dahal and the Maoists, Lamichhane and the RSP and Madhav Nepal of the Unified Socialists. However, in the public’s eye, all three mainstream parties are the same, and citizens do not have faith in the new NC-UML alliance improving their living conditions.

Shristi Karki

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Rapid fire governments in Nepal

Among the many silver linings of the Corona outbreak, The Ass learnt at the friendly neighbourhood watering hole this week, is that we can now stop worrying about Nepali politics. There are more serious things over which to panic.GONe has been criticised for not doing enough to detect and control the virus, but that is unfair. Let me be the devil’s legal adviser here and note that playing dead is Nepal’s time tested method of solving a problem: pretend it does not exist. If you don’t see it, there is nothing to fear. Out of sight is out of mind. It is really effective, you should try it some time.Still, one cannot be more careful during these perilous times, so here are some simple precautions to stop the virus in its tracks before it violates Nepali air space.Doing the namaste is going viral. The hand gesture is back in vogue as an alternative to the handshake, and even Prince Charles is doing it.But the advice about namaste-ing left and right is misguided, and may actually make the problem worse. What if the virus is in one palm and not in the other? By executing a namaskar you have infected your other uncontaminated hand as well, and helped spread the pandemic.A safer alternative is the traditional Maori haka greeting of showing tongues at each other as a welcome gesture. The president could greet new ambassadors at Shitall Nibas with a tongue-lashing next time she receives accreditation from, let’s say, the Plenipotentiary of São Tomé and Príncipe.Health officials are promoting hand washing as the best antidote to the virus. We know this works brilliantly because the most effective way politicians have devised to deal with any problem is to wash their hands off it.If, like most places in Nepal, there is soap but no water, just rub your fingers for 20 seconds, and utter a powerful Vedic mantra. That should kill all coronaviruses lurking in the immediate vicinity.As the flu season ends and we enter the season of political unrest in Nepal, the government can ban all assembly of five or more people, citing the Covid threat, and stop all pesky demos at the Mandala.Domestic airlines can announce further belt-tightening and stop serving peanuts on board. Next to go will be cotton earplugs, which hungry Dhangadi passengers sometimes eat. And no more barf bags, queasy passengers can open the emergency hatch to throw up.If the situation worsens, airlines will switch to gliders which will use updrafts to gain height and cruise to their destinations. A test flight from Pokhara to Jomsom this week landed safely in Ladakh.Meanwhile, security is beefed up at Kathmandu to apprehend any viruses trying to sneak into Nepal without visas. Masked gunmen are posted at the arrival concourse to apprehend suspicious micro-orgasms. Immigration officials are trained to be hostile and make germs feel unwelcome in Nepal.Customs officials at the metal-free x-ray downstairs will now carry out aggressive antibody searches.

The Ass

No visas for viruses

Who is accountable for teacher-student relationships?

Early on Monday morning, a bus from Pokhara to Kathmandu plunged off the highway in Dhading killing 19 passengers. Two weeks ago, another bus fell into the Tama Kosi in Manthali, killing 12. A few days before that a bus crash in Baitadi killed 13 people.&nbsp; In just the month before Nepal's election, more than 50 people have been killed in road traffic accidents. Most of these cannot be called 'accidents'. They are a direct result of poorly maintained highways and lack of enforcement of traffic discipline. Political parties in Nepal have rolled out their election manifestos, and voters are once again presented with a flood of promises. Page after page, these documents list megawatts and microcredit, highways and airports, jobs and investment. In these manifestos, growth is quantified, projects itemised, revenue forecast — and there are even threats to beat up contractors who do not finish their jobs. But when everything is declared a priority the stale promises are empty. The voter is left confused as to where the party’s loyalties really lie. Will any of these plans and pledges actually ever materialise and help Nepalis live longer, safer, healthier lives? The main job of any accountable government is to protect its citizens, not so much from foreign enemies but from domestic mismanagement. And this means the most basic test the new government should be made to pass is whether it can ensure basic well-being and protection for all its people. The problems of safety, health, and survival remain unresolved for most Nepalis, and are quietly eroding their lives. In the past year alone, the country’s <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/roadkill">roads and highways claimed more than 2,300</a> lives. An estimated 41,000 Nepalis die each year directly because of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/what-is-invisible-is-more-dangerous">air pollution</a>, and their <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/air-pollution-killing-season-starts-early">lifespans are lessened by 3.4 years</a>.&nbsp; <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/poor-health">Non-communicable diseases</a> now account for well over half of total deaths in the country. And even where survival has improved, deprivation remains. Chronic malnutrition continues to haunt communities in <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/mass-migration-from-muktikot">Nepal’s western mountains</a> despite progress in maternal and child health.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260223130240_4f4ef83a31c3c4ae36ecdffb33a355e2fa3de9e98244b840a895af2d95c35ac0.jpg" data-media-id="editor_5" data-image-id="20260223130240_4f4ef83a31c3c4ae36ecdffb33a355e2fa3de9e98244b840a895af2d95c35ac0" data-rendition-name="original" width="1024" height="683" loading="lazy" alt="A life-first manifesto for Nepal NT"> </figure>  These are the lived realities of most Nepalis, and it is here that development can deliver its most immediate returns. A rising GDP, in and of itself, does not make roads safer, clean polluted air, or provide enough nutrition to children. Such outcomes demand intentional, granular policies that confront the specific, everyday problems shaping people’s lives.&nbsp; Macroeconomic growth, trade and investment are important, but these alone cannot guarantee improvements health and safety. The word ‘growth’, after all, is also synonymous with malignancy. Economic progress and human protection are correlated only when governance deliberately links them. Impact on life is the unit in which ordinary Nepalis calculate progress. What is needed, then, is a governing philosophy measurable in these same terms: a ‘life-first’ standard where every policy, budget, and reform can be understood and judged by its impact on protecting and extending human life. Such a ‘life-first’ approach would scrutinise three aspects of every policy. First, whether the policy prevents loss of life. A death is termed preventable if better, more coordinated response systems and regulations could have avoided it (vaccines, drugs, road safety, clean drinking water). A newly built six-lane highway <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/highway-accidents-are-no-accident-in-nepal">can be a death trap</a> due to poor design or lax enforcement of safety rules. If neonatal deaths continue in a district despite hospitals being present, or if malnutrition claims lives in predominantly agricultural regions, they too are failures. Preventable deaths also cluster where accountability is less direct. Just last year, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/suicides-a-pandemic-within-a-pandemic">Nepal recorded 6,866 suicides</a>, with nearly 20 lives lost every day, yet these deaths fail to prompt any serious examination of governance. The same holds for fatalities linked to domestic or communal violence, alcohol and substance misuse, or ‘natural’ disasters, which register as ‘tragedies without remedy’ rather than as outcomes policy can influence. But when avoidable loss of life recurs at scale, isolated incidents become patterns, and patterns reveal systemic neglect. Saving lives, however, is only the first step, and what matters just as much is the quality of years lived. Nepal’s life expectancy now stands at 71 years, yet many citizens spend years in avoidable disability, untreated chronic illness, or mental distress. A life- first government must ask not only whether people live, but whether they thrive. Are citizens able to pursue education, work, and family life without fear of preventable harm? Do communities have access to clean air and water, nutritious food, and basic healthcare? Can a teenager anywhere in Nepal imagine a future not foreclosed by premature marriage, or untreated depression?  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260223130240_157d72b80b82a07699b6bffbb30036b86f0f767a5674cc3db3d5c20343442940.jpg" data-media-id="editor_8" data-image-id="20260223130240_157d72b80b82a07699b6bffbb30036b86f0f767a5674cc3db3d5c20343442940" data-rendition-name="original" width="2529" height="1427" loading="lazy" alt="A life-first manifesto for Nepal NT"> </figure>  Thriving requires policies that prevent suffering and promote well-being in addition to ensuring survival.&nbsp; Finally, governance must consider graceful aging. Elderly Nepalis should not be left to navigate disease, poverty, or isolation alone. Social systems, healthcare, and community support must enable their continued participation and dignified well-being. Adopting this three-layered standard would gradually reorient how success of any new government is defined. Transportation would be judged by fatalities reduced on the roads. Electricity generation would be measured by whether households can switch from firewood dependence to smoke-free electric stoves.&nbsp; Increase in annual rice harvest must translate into better nutrition, reducing the prevalence of chronic diseases like diabetes. Accountability must follow problems rather than stop at Singha Darbar. Only then will politicians and bureaucrats eventually recognise that their work converges on the same human endpoint. Critics will argue that economies are complex, trade-offs are inevitable, and that governance cannot be reduced to a single metric.But, as Acemoglu and Robinson show in their book <a href="https://ia801506.us.archive.org/27/items/WhyNationsFailTheOriginsODaronAcemoglu/Why-Nations-Fail_-The-Origins-o-Daron-Acemoglu.pdf">Why Nations Fail</a>, the key difference between prosperity and poverty lies in inclusive institutions that empower citizens and create broad incentives for well-being.&nbsp; Extractive institutions concentrate power and wealth in the hands of a few while keeping the majority trapped in neglect. Nepal’s governance has remained a striking example of extraction. If lawmakers in the new Parliament continue to resist changes that would save and improve the lives of ordinary citizens, the same systemic rot will persist for generations to come. A life-first mentality can cut through this inertia by clarifying the moral centre of governance and reminding policymakers that behind every policy failure lies human cost. <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/epicentre-of-hunger">Every mother in Bajura</a> with a child going hungry at night, every farmer in the Madhes unable to afford medical care, and every family that has lost <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/comment/saving-kidneys-to-save-nepal">a migrant son to kidney failure</a> understands the true <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/multimedia/dirty-dangerous-difficult-and-dehydrating">value of a life saved</a>. Life is the one metric that transcends ideology, ethnicity, and region. Centering governance on this single, focused metric, can shift an election from a contest of rhetoric to a contest of evidence. Which party ensured access to safe water and basic healthcare? Which made work at home and abroad safer and less exploitative. Which measurably extended healthy years of life for ordinary citizens? Health is wealth. By improving the healthy lifespan of citizens economic prosperity would follow naturally. A ‘life-first’ governance model would therefore compel Nepal to address the underlying structural failures across all sectors, rather than merely alleviating their symptoms. The GenZ protest that toppled the government last September was, at its core, a demand for accountability and a rejection of politics as usual. But as the country edges closer to the polls, that clarity has started to dissipate. Parties are now echoing the language of reform, but the public discourse remains dominated by promises that feel disconnected from Nepal’s most immediate and basic priorities. Every preventable death, every hungry child, and every neglected elder becomes a direct failure of governance and a moral debt the state must answer for. It is how we can make sure we keep the next government in check. The writers are Nepali GenZ students of biomedical engineering at the Hong Kong Polytechnic University.

Nepal’s life or death election

Of the nearly 19 million eligible voters in next week’s election in Nepal, an estimated 5 million are abroad and cannot cast their ballots. Many others within Nepal must travel to their home districts, and might decide not to because of the cost.
Flights into Kathmandu these days are full of global Nepalis returning just to vote, but almost as many are leaving for overseas jobs. Most of those coming or going are in the 20-40 age group, and a majority want Nepal to see a change in leadership.
Bangladesh held an election this month in which citizens overseas could vote by mail.&nbsp;
“Bangladesh made maximum use of technology not just for campaigning but also for polling itself. We could have also managed this, so people within Nepal did not have to travel to their home districts to vote,” says Mohna Ansari, former head of Nepal’s National Human Rights Commission who was an election observer in Bangladesh.
A 3-day holiday has been declared so people can travel to their home constituencies to cast ballots. Even if there was not enough time to manage ballots for overseas Nepalis, it could have been done for Nepalis within Nepal.
Former Chief Election Commissioner Bhojraj Pokharel reckons that physical voting in countries with a large Nepali diaspora would have been a logistical nightmare, but in the PR system, using electronic voting machines or paper ballot could have been piloted in some places. It is not possible to manage the entire voting process until we introduce the internet voting system.
“First of all, there needs to be political will to bring the policy and be ready to undertake that level of investment and it is not a one-time cost,” Pokharel says. “A government formed by the GenZ could have atr least issed an ordinance ensuring this right, piloted out-of-country voting where possible, which could have built pressure for the future Parliament and the government. It would have given people hope. It is a lost opportunity.”
All major political parties called for voting rights for global Nepalis in their manifestos, but these very leaders blocked legislation allowing it despite a 2017 Supreme Court ruling out of fear that it would be anti-incumbent.&nbsp;
<h2>Why so late?</h2>
Bangladesh delivered election results in just one day, but the final results of Nepal's last local polls in 2022 including that of Kathmandu constituencies took nearly a month.
Acting Chief Election Commissioner Ram Prasad Bhandari said this week that the results of the First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) ballot counting would “likely” be published within 24 hours of the poll closing at 5PM on 5 March. But many are skeptical.
“I wonder if we lack the capacity or know-how to announce results as quickly as possible,” says Mohna Ansari.
Former Chief Election Commissioner Pokharel says manual ballot paper counting in Nepal is inherently slow because of the large numner of political parties and/or candidates on the ballot, the counting mechanism, the political behaviour of the candidates/parties and some managerial issues during counting.
“Our present policy is to count all the ballot papers at the returning officers' officies, located at the district headquarters. It requires collecting ballot boxes safetly first. This takes time, and there have been cases of ballot boxes being damaged or stolen during transport. In a few highly difficult, geographically remote polling centres, we use a helicopter or transport. But sometimes, accommodating the party and candidates' representatives remains challenging,” explains Pokharel. A solution could be counting ballots at the very booths where they are cast.
Another reason for the delay is simply the number of political parties, and the need for each ballot paper to be examined by booth representatives for consensus. In close races, the smallest difference can lead to tense situations, further delaying results, even though counting centres are protected by metal fencing so there is no disruption.
After this, then it is the turn of Proportional Representation (PR) ballots to be counted. Weeks pass by the time the results of candidates and parties are tallied and verified. But the most common delay is because election officers think ballot counting is a nine-to-five job.&nbsp;
“The efficiency of poll station officers is most important, and they are incentivised for this,” says Ansari, adding that counting can even start within an hour after voting closes.
In remote areas, local resources could be mobilised to make counting quicker, but there is a crisis of trust, adds Ansari.&nbsp;
That could be easily solved with electronic voting which the EC implemented in the 2008 polls but discontinued because political parties felt the machines could be hacked or manipulated.

Nepalis Select Who To Elect

On Saturday, Iran retaliated with missile strikes on Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Bahrain and Qatar, a region where there are an estimated 2 million Nepalis working to send money home. In addition, thousands of Nepalis were preparing to board flights to Kathmandu from West Asian cities this weekend to vote in the 5 March election. Many are said to be stranded at various aviation hubs. A Qatar Airways flight from Doha took off just before the air space was closed, while Air Arabia and Kuwait Airways have diverted or cancelled flights. Nepalis in the West Asian region said things were relatively calm where they were, although some heard loud explosions at about noon local time. In Dubai, some thought they were Ramadan fireworks.&nbsp; In Kuwait, nearly 2,000 Nepalis working in the US military base as security guards and cleaners were evacuated before the strikes. In Bahrain where the US Fifth Fleet naval base is located and which was hit by two Iranian missiles, workers contacted by Nepali Times said the situation was under control and the authorities had told everyone to stay indoors and not use highways. The conflict also coincided with the beginning of Nepal’s trekking and mountaineering season, and tourists were either on their way or planning to leave European and North American cities for Himalayan hikes. Most of them transit through Doha, Dubai or Kuwait and all three airports are closed. Turkish Airlines flights via Istanbul are still operating.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260228130212_ab5e132d56da1df6a3fb1b6919648f845a168ad2c51d79f7587fb85a6e913b97.png" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20260228130212_ab5e132d56da1df6a3fb1b6919648f845a168ad2c51d79f7587fb85a6e913b97" data-rendition-name="original" width="1864" height="826" loading="lazy" alt="Qatar and UAE airspace closed"> <figcaption>Qatar and UAE airspace closed. Credit: Flightradar24</figcaption> </figure>  However, the main impact for the world could be a spike in the price of petroleum products if the strategic Strait of Hormuz is blocked. China relies on Iranian oil for their refineries, and Nepal could be affected indirectly if the economies of its neighbours are hit. Nepal imports all its diesel, petrol, LPG and aviation fuel from India which sources it mainly from the Gulf, and until recently from Russia. Petroleum makes up 25% of the value of all imports, and that is more than Nepal earns from all its exports. Saudi Arabia this year overtook the UAE as the main destination for Nepali workers, with the number now totalling 400,000. There are said to be as many in the UAE, and another 350,000 in Qatar. There are another 100,000 mostly women in Kuwait, and 50,000 each in Oman and Bahrain.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260228130220_d24ae633ff84f283835434becdb2f1351f84c415ce87ca34378bd4e2669661b3.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20260228130220_d24ae633ff84f283835434becdb2f1351f84c415ce87ca34378bd4e2669661b3" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="West Asia Iran conflict"> <figcaption>Iran retaliated with missile strikes on Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Bahrain and Qatar on Saturday.</figcaption> </figure>  Nepal receives nearly $11 billion a year in remittances from overseas Nepalis (not counting India) through official channels, although the total is said to be much more. &nbsp;This makes up more than a quarter of Nepal’s GDP equivalent — one of the highest proportions in the world. More than half of the overseas remittances to Nepal comes from its workers in the Gulf, and it is the mainstay of the country’s economy. Nepalis in Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE alone send home more than $3 billion a year, much of that helping support their families back home. An average Nepali worker in the Gulf sends home nearly $2,500 a year, and this is spent mainly for household supplies, children’s education and healthcare. There are also an estimated 7,000 Nepali caregivers and healthcare workers in Israel, and most of them are women. The Nepal Embassy has asked Nepalis in Israel to take caution and move to bomb shelters.

nepali-government

Rapid fire governments in Nepal

No visas for viruses

Who is accountable for teacher-student relationships?

Nepal’s life or death election

Nepalis Select Who To Elect

West Asia war and Nepalis