<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111016110/636d128a9c7e80680e0a98ddjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="750" height="1083"/><figcaption>The south face of Mt Gauri Shankar (7,134m) on the border between Nepal and China is bare rock, and shows how dramatically the snowline has receded, and the glaciers have shrunk. Photo: KUNDA DIXIT</figcaption></figure>The COP26 climate jamboree ends in Glasgow on Friday, and already it looks like the best world governments are prepared to offer in terms of emission cuts is not enough to stave off an environmental catastrophe.There were a slew of national, international and multinational pledges for <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/net-zero-is-not-zero/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">net zero</a>, but activists fear allegations that the targets are vague and over-ambitious greenwash that they have no intention of meeting.The result could be global average temperatures soaring to up to 3oCelsius above pre-industrial levels, with catastrophic results. The <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/a-terrifying-assessment-of-himalayan-melting/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Himalaya will warm even faster</a>, and scientists say it could lose up to two-thirds of its remaining ice during this century.Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepals-greenwashing-in-glasgow/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Nepal's greewashing in Glasgow</a>, Rashmi Baskota<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111016110/636d128d9c7e80680e0a98dejpeg.jpg" alt="" width="3000" height="671"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111016110/636d12909c7e80680e0a98dfjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="568"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>On Tuesday in Glasgow, Nepal unveiled three <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/blueprint-for-a-net-zero-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">ambitious targets</a>, and without waiting for others to say it, boasted that it was the ‘highest climate ambition country’.In its three-point pledge, Nepal said it would:<ul><li>Start reducing emission from 2022 and be carbon negative after 2045</li> <li>Halt deforestation and increase forest cover to 45% by 2030</li> <li>Ensure all vulnerable people are protected from climate change by 2030</li></ul>In Kathmandu, environmental activist Bhushan Tuladhar welcomed the new targets, saying they were “ambitious but doable” but one which will require a serious review of our normal development pathway.“We can’t look at the commitments as just reduction of carbon emission, but as an investment for our economy and health. Now let’s walk the talk and get to work,” Tuladhar told Nepali Times.A good start would be for the government to order that all official vehicles purchased from now on will be <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/e-vehicles-prepare-for-post-lockdown-boom/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">battery powered</a>, and encourage public transport operators to electrify their bus fleets and by reducing taxes and setting up charging stations, he added.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111016110/636d12939c7e80680e0a98e0jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111016110/636d12979c7e80680e0a98e1jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1061"><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111016110/636d129a9c7e80680e0a98e2jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000">The pledges have been criticised as being too vague on protecting all ‘vulnerable people by 2030’ and annual reduction of emissions till net-zero by 2045 will hinge on implementation, on which Nepal has always been weak. The <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-can-up-forest-cover-to-45-by-2030/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">forestry target</a>, however, is seen to be achievable.The targets are also conditional upon financial support, and Nepal will require $46 billion to implement them from 2022-2030, which is 24% of national GDP, and the government can fund only about 2% of this sum.Amrit Nakarmi, an adviser at the Energy Development Council who prepared the long-term strategy report, says that Nepal is unlikely to meet the targets without climate funds.“We contribute only 0.5% of total global carbon emissions and even within that  only 30% is anthropogenic, 20% is natural and the remaining 50% is transboundary, so us reducing <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-doubles-its-carbon-footprint/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">our carbon footprint</a> will not make much of a difference to the global climate,” explains Nakarmi.“But having said that we can replace our fossil fuel imports with clean hydroelectricity and cut our import bill,” he adds. “Electrification of the economy is urgent, and government policies should be in line with our targets and the private sector should be involved.”<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111016110/636d129d9c7e80680e0a98e3jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1800" height="1050"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Climate finance and payments for Nepal’s carbon sink from <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/who-now-owns-nepals-forests/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">expanded forest cover</a> will take time to materialise. But experts say we should not wait for the money, and start with low-cost effective mitigation measures locally.Cooking via electricity has now become much cheaper than LPG, and many urban families have transitioned to induction stoves. But 90% of households across Nepal are hooked to only 5amp current which is only enough for lighting. If the transmission can be upgraded, Nepal could save at least Rs33 billion a year by replacing its <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/look-whats-cooking-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">cooking gas imports</a> with electricity.Nepalis have paid nearly Rs10 billion in pollution tax for every litre of petrol or diesel at the gas stations in the last decade. This money could be used to buy  electric public buses. Increasing the petroleum excise tax could fund conversion to renewables.Nepal would also save Rs21 billion a year by reducing its petroleum import bill by just 10% if it <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/cleaner-air-with-greener-buses/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">converted public buses to battery-operated vehicles</a> while also increasing domestic consumption of clean electricity and improving air quality. If the transport sector is electrified, experts believe net-zero by 2045 is possible.Water scientist Madhukar Upadhya believes Nepal can also increase forest cover to 45% by 2030 (from the current 37%) by controlling forest degradation due to encroachment, deforestation and reducing wildfires.But Upadhyay is puzzled by the third target on protecting vulnerable people. “We just don’t have the infrastructure, knowledge or expertise to achieve climate resilience for vulnerable people by 2030,” he asserts.“Nepal experienced extreme weather this year,<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/himalayan-floods-a-sign-of-worse-to-come/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"> droughts and floods destroyed crops</a>, lack of water is creating climate refugees, wildfires have become nationwide,” Upadhyay adds. “These are not just headlines anymore, we are experiencing them ourselves, what are we doing to address these challenges? Nepal has taken no action to reduce or control them.”<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111016110/636d12a09c7e80680e0a98e4jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1200" height="900"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Other areas that can be cleaned up with existing technologies and local resources include industries, agriculture and waste management. The cement industry is booming in Nepal, and they are big carbon emitters. By switching to electricity, Nepal could mitigate emissions. Rice farming generates methane, which is a greenhouse gas, so converting to the System of Rice Intensification (SRI) could reduce our contribution to climate change.Kathmandu’s only <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/a-load-of-rubbish/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">landfill in Sisdole</a> has reached maximum capacity and an alternative site has been in talks for decades. Landfills add to methane emissions, but there has been no commitment to composting and biogas using biodegradable urban waste.After overdosing on <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/climate-change-is-a-disaster-in-the-nepal-himalaya/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">climate news</a> for two weeks just to be side-lined until the next COP, we might want to recall another one of our targets, the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by 2030. Half of the 17 goals in SDGs will be directly affected by the impact of climate change, and yet these initiatives are working in isolation when in fact they should coordinate and collaborate for the same goal: sustainable and just future.Says environmentalist Tuladhar: “There are two things to do right after Glasgow: explain the nitty-gritty of the commitments we made and immediately implement short-, mid- and long-term strategies to achieve them. Start with the low hanging fruit, what we can immediately do, and there are plenty of them.”

Sonia Awale

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COPOUT at COP26

<img width="640" height="481" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111016110/636d12869c7e80680e0a98dcjpeg.jpg" alt=""/>Youth climate activist Greta Thunberg calls COP26 in Glasgow the ‘Global North Greenwashing Festival.’ But it is also developing countries like Nepal that are using the occasion to make wild promises they are not serious about.
As a country that has taken a lead in championing the mountain agenda at climate summits, <a href="https://uk.nepalembassy.gov.np/statement-by-the-rt-hon-prime-minister-sher-bahadur-deuba-at-the-world-leaders-summit-during-the-26th-conference-of-parties-cop-26/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Nepal</a> put forth three targets this week:
<ul><li>Remain 'cumulatively net zero carbon’ from 2022-2045' and become carbon negative after that. </li>
<li>Halt deforestation and increase forest cover to 45% by 2030</li>
<li>Ensure all vulnerable people are protected from climate change by 2030</li>
</ul>Individually and collectively, these targets do not mean anything. What is more, the Nepali delegation commended itself as the ‘highest climate ambition country’. Even if that was true, it would be for someone else to say that, not us.
The <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-can-up-forest-cover-to-45-by-2030/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">forestry target</a> is more realistic: increasing the current 37% forest cover to 45% in the next nine years is attainable. But how can Nepal justify clearing the last tract of native tropical forest in the eastern Tarai that is a migration corridor for wild elephants by building a white elephant <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/does-nepal-need-a-4th-international-airport/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">airport at Nijgad</a>?
Read Also <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-must-save-nijgad-forest-to-receive-climate-funds/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Nepal must save Nijgad Forest to receive climate funds</a>, Kashish Das Shrestha
Other infrastructure projects are undermining the success of community forestry, and Nepal is still reluctant in allowing private capital into climate action, and consequently the inclusion of private sector project developers.
Consumption and a throwaway plastic culture is growing in Nepal, recycling is almost non-existent, domestic aviation is flying high, and petroleum import is <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-doubles-its-carbon-footprint/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">doubling</a> every few years.  Black carbon deposits from factories, vehicles and cooking are accelerating Himalayan melting and exacerbating a public health crisis from pollution. 
And the third point about Nepal’s claim that it will ensure all vulnerable people are ‘protected from climate change by 2030’ has dumbfounded most experts I have spoken to. How exactly are we going to protect them in the next nine years, from what? And what is the criteria by which we can judge that they have been ‘protected’?   
A footnote in Nepal’s press statement in Glasgow is that these targets are conditional upon financial support and Nepal’s goal to raise Rs250 billion. Oops. Given Nepal’s history of unwillingness to allow the flow of private capital into climate projects, this is very unlikely.
As COP26 host, the UK has gone into overdrive with media hype about the successes: the Global Methane Pledge, Glasgow Leaders’ Declaration on Forest and Land Use.
Every day brings forth a new declaration. Countries are picking up on this convenient way to make pledges they know they will not have to fulfill on reducing carbon emissions.  From Saudi Arabia to Israel, India to China, ‘net-zero’ has become the next big thing. 
Read Also <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/net-zero-is-not-zero/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Net Zero is not zero</a>, Maureen Santos and Linda Schneider
As a youth environmentalist, I am appalled by <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/blueprint-for-a-net-zero-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">empty and reckless promises</a> being made at this make-or-break conference -- our last chance to save the planet from heating that will lead to societal upheaval, mass extinction, overflowing oceans and other calamities. 
While some see these commitments as a welcome sign that leaders are committed to transitioning to a carbon neutral world and implementing the Paris Agreement, the reality is different.
We need to phase out all fossil fuels by 2030 if we are to cap global temperature rise to 1.5. But national emission reduction ambitions do not reflect this. The fossil fuel lobby is prominently present in Glasgow, and national delegates have turned net-zero into political sloganeering, while ignoring the roadmap on net-zero put forth by the International Energy Agency. 
Climate change is a political agenda, but it is also a technical one. Ensuring a just and affordable transition to net-zero requires a global overhaul of the energy system while adopting a cross-sectional and integrated approach to addressing poverty. 
Sadly, COP26 presidency seems to have forgotten or completely ignored this. The newfound energy in enhancing climate ambition has dwarfed the real agenda of climate negotiations. Britain, as the cradle of the industrial revolution, has made dramatic national cutbacks, and wants desperately for Glasgow to deliver meaningful and realistic targets.
Read Also <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/climate-change-is-a-disaster-in-the-nepal-himalaya/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Climate change is a disaster in Nepal Himalaya</a>, Sonam Choekyi Lama
But negotiations on Article 6 are still contested and it seems unlikely that the Paris Rulebook will be adopted. Coal financing continues, negotiations on public climate finance and the $100bn target has not materialised.
Civil society plays a crucial role in ensuring climate action, ambition, and accountability. But twisting the truth about Nepal, and creating illusions is detrimental to action on climate that we must start taking. Inviting civil society to Glasgow and pretending to listen to them is a scam.
It is working: climate activists on Facebook are lauding the COP Presidency for helping Nepal make a bold pledge on an ambitious sets of targets. And when there is so much doom and gloom, even critics do not seem to want to speak against this ray of hope. 
This is not a COP to feel good about yourselves. It is not a COP to pawn our youth climate activists in <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/think-globally-in-glasgow-and-act-locally/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Glasgow</a> to create the illusion of inclusion. It is not a COP for industrialised countries to now pin the blame for the climate crisis on the developing world, without putting their money where their mouths are.  
The hearts of the delegates in Glasgow may be in the right place, but their actions are not. This is not your COP. It is my future, so stop messing with it.
Read Also
<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/back-to-glasgow-where-it-all-began/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Back to Glasgow where it all began,</a> Ajaya Dixit

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Nepal’s greenwashing in Glasgow

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111016110/636d120b9c7e80680e0a98b6jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1360" height="680"/><figcaption>Photo: PROJECT SYNDICATE</figcaption></figure>It may seem as if the world is finally taking the climate crisis seriously, judging by the number of pledges to reach “net-zero emissions.”Among the major emitters, both the <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/04/22/fact-sheet-president-biden-sets-2030-greenhouse-gas-pollution-reduction-target-aimed-at-creating-good-paying-union-jobs-and-securing-u-s-leadership-on-clean-energy-technologies/">United States</a> and the <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/clima/eu-action/climate-strategies-targets/2050-long-term-strategy_en">European Union</a> have promised to achieve this goal by 2050, while <a href="https://news.un.org/en/story/2020/09/1073052">China</a> intends to become carbon-neutral before 2060. Even oil giants <a href="https://www.shell.com/media/news-and-media-releases/2021/shell-accelerates-drive-for-net-zero-emissions-with-customer-first-strategy.html">Shell</a> and <a href="https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/news-and-insights/press-releases/bernard-looney-announces-new-ambition-for-bp.html">BP</a> plan to reach net-zero emissions by mid-century.Large tech corporations appear more ambitious still. <a href="https://sustainability.aboutamazon.com/">Amazon</a> has committed to reaching net-zero carbon dioxide emissions by 2040. <a href="https://blogs.microsoft.com/blog/2021/01/28/one-year-later-the-path-to-carbon-negative-a-progress-report-on-our-climate-moonshot/">Microsoft</a> has pledged to be “carbon negative” by 2030, and by 2050 it aims to have removed from the air all the CO2 the firm has emitted since it was founded in 1975.<a href="https://blog.google/outreach-initiatives/sustainability/our-third-decade-climate-action-realizing-carbon-free-future/">Google</a> claims to have been carbon neutral since 2007, and aims to be “carbon free” by 2030. In fact, net-zero pledges have come from all parts of the economy, including the <a href="https://www.clara.earth/meat-and-dairy-companies">meat and dairy industry</a>, aviation, <a href="https://www.clara.earth/mining">mining</a>, finance, and retail.But these seemingly ambitious goals in fact amount to yet another round of greenwashing and <a href="https://climatefalsesolutions.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/HOODWINKED_ThirdEdition_On-Screen_version.pdf">dangerous distractions </a>that will <a href="https://www.corporateaccountability.org/resources/the-big-con-net-zero/">delay and prevent the adoption</a> of real climate solutions. That is because <a href="https://www.realsolutions-not-netzero.org/">net zero is not really zero</a>.For starters, 2050 is almost three decades away. Making long-term net-zero pledges enables governments and businesses to avoid drastic emissions cuts now. From a climate-justice perspective in particular, mid-century is way too late.Wealthy, industrialised countries in the Global North, due to their historical emissions and current levels of wealth, have a responsibility to decarbonise much faster.Compounding the problem, many net-zero plans are not backed up by corresponding short-term and interim emissions-reductions targets, such as for 2025. Instead, the majority of countries’ nationally determined contributions under the 2015 <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/the-paris-agreement">Paris climate agreement</a>, which were recently updated or reviewed, are based on a 2030 timeframe. This disregards the five-year review cycle at the heart of the Paris accord.Worse still, the inclusion of ‘net’ in climate pledges confirms that emissions will not actually decline to zero. Instead, they will supposedly be offset – to an unclear and disputable extent – by removal of CO2 from the atmosphere.Many such net-zero schemes rely excessively on natural ecosystems to remove and store atmospheric CO2. This has sparked the current hype surrounding so-called nature-based solutions. While carefully restoring natural ecosystems is crucial in addressing both the climate and the biodiversity crises, it must not serve to prolong the lifetime of polluting industries.But nature-based solutions also include <a href="https://www.cartadebelem.org.br/manifest-towards-cop-26/">proposals</a> that would transform agriculture into a large-scale emissions-mitigation opportunity associated with the soil carbon market.Net-zero plans often also rely on speculative techno-fixes to remove CO2 from the atmosphere. Climate geo-engineering technologies such as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) or direct air capture (DAC) are highly risky and unproven – in particular at climate-relevant scales – and could have potentially devastating consequences for people and ecosystems. Either way, ‘solutions’ like BECCS and DAC risk locking in several more decades of continued fossil-fuel production and combustion.The conversation instead needs to return to the real climate solutions that currently do not feature at high-level intergovernmental conferences. The debate should centre on a comprehensive and long-overdue transformation of our exploitative and destructive economic systems.Bringing down global greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions to real zero requires addressing the manifold global and historical injustices that caused the climate crisis and continue to shape it.Specifically, the rights, lives, and livelihoods of indigenous peoples and local communities must be at the core of any climate solution. That means listening to these groups, and taking their practices and proposals seriously. Strengthening and securing their land rights is one of the most effective ways to protect ecosystems, biodiversity, and the climate.In addition, we need to leave fossil fuels in the ground right now. There must be no further development of these resources, and existing fossil-fuel infrastructure must be phased out as soon as possible, based on a just transition for workers and communities that depend on them.Moving away from industrial agriculture is another high priority. Over-intensive, destructive production has exhausted the Earth’s soils and ecosystems and is generating massive amounts of GHG emissions, while <a href="https://reader.elsevier.com/reader/sd/pii/S0305750X2100067X?token=D234DC7C85790B1C6085C3680B3D9762EC31269D8A103DDF5F89193FE22383D2527AE0A02EA3A619AA57BEE01E085E73&amp;originRegion=us-east-1&amp;originCreation=20211027141941">feeding only a fraction</a> of the world’s population. It is a major driver of deforestation, and the resulting destruction of ecological barriers and buffers probably <a href="https://grain.org/en/article/6418-building-a-factory-farmed-future-one-pandemic-at-a-time">contributed to the outbreak</a> of the COVID-19 pandemic.By contrast, <a href="https://agroecologyprinciple.cidse.org/">agroecology</a> offers new possibilities for socio-ecological transformation and can contribute to tackling climate change in a safe way. This approach can also help to guarantee food and nutrition security and sovereignty, and conserve biodiversity.© <a href="https://www.project-syndicate.org/">Project Syndicate</a>Maureen Santos is Coordinator of the National Advisory Group of the Federation of Organizations for Social and Educational Assistance (FASE), and a former program coordinator in the Heinrich Böll Foundation’s Rio de Janeiro office. Linda Schneider is Senior Program Officer for International Climate Policy at the Heinrich Böll Foundation’s Berlin office.

Net Zero is not zero

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109181124/636be2929c7e80680e083eb7jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1800" height="1050"/><figcaption>Photo: NEPAL OIL CORPORATION</figcaption></figure>The global pandemic hijacked 2020 and reset priorities, but countries now need to regroup and renew their commitment to cap global warming at well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, as agreed in Paris in 2015.On 12 December, it will be the fifth anniversary of the signing of the landmark climate accord when 196 countries, including Nepal, will be presenting their <a href="https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Nationally Determined Contributions</a> (NDCs) to reduce the impact of the climate crisis.NDCs are voluntary commitments by countries to reduce their carbon footprints, but there are fears that a world in the throes of a Covid-19 induced economic crisis will follow through on past commitments—even as scientists warn that the earth is warming much more rapidly than forecast five years ago in Paris.The Himalaya is <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/human-face-of-a-himalayan-climate-crisis/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">literally a hotspot</a> because the mountains are warming faster than the global average. But activists say Nepal's own 'Enhanced NDC' does not go far enough in mitigating carbon emissions, or adapting to the impact of the climate emergency.The document has been put up for public comment and is subject to revision. Its highlight is that Nepal for the first time mentions ‘net-zero emission’ as a future goal.But the document does not give a timeline to achieve it, and only says that the country will formulate 'a long-term low greenhouse gas emission development strategy' sometime next year.In the region, Bhutan has already declared itself carbon neutral—meaning its forests absorb more than the CO2 it emits. China, responsible for 28% of total annual carbon emissions, recently pledged peak emission before 2030 and attain net-zero by 2060. <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/a-biden-presidency-climate-and-the-himalaya/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">President-elect Joe Biden </a>as committed that the US, which contributes 15% of CO2 annually, to zero carbon emissions by 2050, as have Japan, South Korea and the UK.India, the fourth largest CO2 emitter globally, is lagging but has been investing heavily in solar power, and by setting targets to electrify railways and phasing out diesel and petroleum vehicles by 2030.Nepali activists say the country's NDC could have gone much further to set realistic firm pledges, since it is starting from such a low carbon base."We could have easily set a target of net-zero by 2050. In fact, we can achieve it by 2030 if we are really committed," says environmentalist Bhushan Tuladhar. "Our emission is negligible, we are a low-carbon economy and have much cleaner sources of energy like hydroelectricity at our disposal."In 2014, a report showed that Nepal's forest area had doubled in 25 years, and it absorbed half of Nepal's total emissions from burning fossil fuels. However, another report last year showed that carbon emission was rising faster than vegetation cover, and frequent wildfires were themselves pumping more CO2 into the atmosphere.<a style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/ipcc-report-and-nepals-food-security/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Manjeet Dhakal</a>, adviser to the Least Developed Countries support group at the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) says: "I'm pretty confident we will achieve net-zero by 2050. But what is important in this discussion is that, while we may be among the smallest emitters, our emissions are increasing and forests are not absorbing CO2 as they used to."<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109181124/636be2959c7e80680e083eb8jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="555"><figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109181124/636be2989c7e80680e083eb9jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="425"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109181124/636be29b9c7e80680e083ebajpeg.jpg" alt="" width="890" height="464">Nepal's annual per capita carbon emission is one of the lowest in the world at 0.29 tons. In comparison, an average American pumps 16 tons of carbon every year, and Qataris burn 37 tons. However, Nepal's per capita emission is rising significantly due to the growing import of petroleum products and thermal electricity from India.As new roads are built and more vehicles imported, Nepal's main driver of fossil fuel consumption is the transportation sector. Motorcycles account for 80% of all vehicles in Nepal, and phasing them out for battery-powered two-wheelers would significantly reduce petroleum imports.Electric public transport will need subsidies from the government and investors but it also means utilising Nepal's clean energy from hydropower and further reducing our carbon footprint. Last fiscal year, Nepal's petroleum import reached Rs200 billion— 2.2 times higher than the country's total income from exports. Imports of diesel, petrol, aviation fuel and LPG went down slightly in 2020 due to the pandemic and lockdowns.<a style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/cleaner-air-with-greener-buses/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Switching to electric public transport</a> and battery vehicles to reduce the petroleum import bill by just 10% would save Rs21 billion a year. This will also clean up the air. Air pollution <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/double-whammy-air-pollution-and-covid-19/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">killed 41,000 people in Nepal last year</a>. This winter that risk for patients with respiratory issues is combined with Covid-19 complications.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109181124/636be29d9c7e80680e083ebbjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="576" height="683"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Bishwo Nath Oli, Secretary at the Ministry of Forest and Environment agrees. "We plan to produce 15,000MW of clean energy by 2030 and we need a strategy so that it is properly consumed and utilised. Electrification of transport is the best way to go about it, along with electric stoves and biomass to cut emissions significantly."Nepal's Enhanced NDC has set a target of turning 25% of all private passenger vehicles sales, including two-wheelers, to electric. It also aims to make 20% of all four-wheel public transport battery-powered by 2025. Most of Nepal's three-wheel vehicles are already electric.Planners hope to increase these numbers to 90% and 60% by 2030. Similarly, in 10 years Nepal aims to develop 200km of electric rail network.But activists are sceptical. Prime Minister KP Oli had declared in 2018 that 25% of all vehicles in Nepal would be electric by 2020. However, Finance Minister Yubaraj Khatiwada <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/why-nepal-needs-to-restore-ev-tax-subsidy/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">scrapped tax subsidies for electric vehicles</a> in this year's budget, although his successor has restored some rebate for smaller battery-powered cars.But even if these targets are met, they are too conservative, says Bhushan Tuladhar. "Our targets are often too ambitious or too relaxed. With the new NDCs, we can see this pattern in sectors such as industry, waste and agriculture which are either too vague or too conservative," he adds.Planners have also not taken into account that the cost of electric vehicles is already at par with diesel vehicles of the same capacity, and will decline further as the price of lithium-ion batteries continues to fall. Increased affluence means more people will opt for two-wheelers and automobiles, most likely electric, especially as India and China phase out production of diesel and petrol vehicles.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221109181124/636be29f9c7e80680e083ebcjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1500" height="1000"><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>While Nepal's voluntary commitment sets a target to reduce coal consumption and air pollution from brick and cement industries by 2030, it does not mention how, and by how much. The NDC document only says the government will 'formulate guidelines and establish mechanisms' by 2025 to monitor emissions from large industries.On the waste sector, the NDC says that by 2025, 380 million litres/day of wastewater will be treated before discharge to natural courses, and 60,000 cubic meters/year of faecal sludge will be managed. But it has targeted only 100 of Nepal's 753 municipalities for waste segregation, recycling and waste-to-energy programs by 2030.Nepal's 2016 NDC pledged to increase forest cover to 40% of the total area, and here the country exceeded the target and current forest cover stands at 44.74%. The new NDC has included more community forests, and says 60% of Nepal's area will be forest, pledging to stop deforestation of the Chure range.Similarly, intercropping, agroforestry, conservation tillage and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/building-an-information-bridge-for-nepals-farmers/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">climate-smart agricultural technologies</a> are all mentioned in the NDC, but missing conspicuously from the discussion is farm mechanisation.Nepal aims to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/decentralising-hydropower/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">increase hydroelectricity generation </a> rom the current 1,400MW to 15,000 by 2030. Of this, 5,000MW is an unconditional target, and the remainder is contingent on funding from the international community. In fact, Nepal will need $25 billion to meet its NDC targets, and most of this will be dependent on foreign aid.Manjeet Dhakal admits the targets in the new NDC may not be ambitious, but he says they are realistic. He adds: "For the longest time Nepal was the most vulnerable to climate change. But time has come for us to show our leadership and commitment to net-zero by implementing the targets set."

Blueprint for a net-zero Nepal

The monsoon has got bad press because Nepal’s tourism operators actively told visitors to avoid <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/managing-the-monsoon?%2F">the rainy season</a>. It is time to change that. The reason can be found right here in the vast alpine meadows of Central Nepal where this time of year you can walk on velvet grass of pastures abloom with delicate pink, red and yellow flowers as the mist rolls up the valley. There is no sound except the hum of bumble bees. &nbsp;&nbsp; There are dozens of places across high Nepal called Chaurikharka, which means yak pasture. But this particular Chaurikharka in Rukum East located at an altitude of 4,000m stands out for its serene beauty, rustic charm and bucolic setting. There is just the occasional chime of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/when-yaks-go-so-does-culture">yak bells</a> in the distance, and the sharp whistle of herders corralling sheep. &nbsp;&nbsp; The grass shoots are so fragile that one hesitates to step on them, the rounded ridges appear and quickly vanish in waves of mist. With the<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/before-the-next-monsoon"> arrival of monsoon</a>, these meadows are a soothing shade of green dotted with millions of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/review/the-anatomy-of-a-flower?%2F=">multi-coloured flowers</a>. Until very recently, it took a week or so to hike up to places like Chaurikharka, but with the expansion of the road network even to these far-flung mountains in the lap of Dhaulagiri, they are much more accessible. It is just a three-hour uphill from the Mid-Hill Highway on the border between Baglung and Rukum East.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250802130828_a0b06b494d751b2144ffbbf10894ea64b29e8aed844bc8c66171783abfaf4e16.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20250802130828_a0b06b494d751b2144ffbbf10894ea64b29e8aed844bc8c66171783abfaf4e16" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1365" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon"> </figure>  Purists would say that such easy access devalues the sanctity of these remote high meadows, but it also means more people will be moved to treasure the experience, appreciate <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/natures-fragile-gift-to-nepal">the value of nature </a>so they can take steps to protect it.&nbsp; To be sure, the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/deadly-monsoon-in-nepal-turns-deadlier">monsoon season can be challenging for road travel</a>. The roads are rough even at the best of times, and in the monsoon they become muddy and treacherous, often blocked by<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/monsoon-deluge-in-nepal"> landslides</a>. But that could be precisely the kind of adventure that the more intrepid visitors crave. Improved road connectivity has already made Chaurikharka and places like Badimallika &nbsp;and other sacred lakes in the mountains of western Nepal popular with domestic tourists. What is driving this traffic is the urge to go to exotic new places and share videos and selfies on social media. Several of Nepal’s travel vloggers have visited Chaurikharka and popularised the place, enticing followers on TikTok or YouTube to retrace their footsteps. But even as they become more popular, these fragile and once-remote places should be protected from over-tourism.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110736_f97110b7cdc3e7f80d5877690948fc9f4c95a09c583deb23b07355491e6c5446.jpg" data-media-id="editor_8" data-image-id="20250731110736_f97110b7cdc3e7f80d5877690948fc9f4c95a09c583deb23b07355491e6c5446" data-rendition-name="original" width="1083" height="699" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon NT"> </figure>  <h2>INCREASING FOOTFALL</h2> Chaurikharka is located in Bhume Rural Municipality of East Rukum, near the scenic valley of Dhorpatan in Baglung district. Even in the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/monsoon-culture">middle of the monsoon</a>, there is a steady stream of Nepali hikers trooping to these high pastures – especially during festival days like Saune Sankranti which this year was on 17 July and actually marks the auspicious beginning of the monsoon here. “This year the rains have not been as heavy and there have been some clear mornings when we could see everything from Dhaulagiri to Machapuchre,” says Khageswar Bhandari, who trekked up here from the road. “The flowers, the greenery and the snowy mountain views make this an incredibly unique place.”&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250802130824_1b9e26f2e9853fdfe69154bb42a7c9ea6da4bf4940efc1da99b304dcfbd7d3d9.jpg" data-media-id="editor_10" data-image-id="20250802130824_1b9e26f2e9853fdfe69154bb42a7c9ea6da4bf4940efc1da99b304dcfbd7d3d9" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1152" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon"> </figure>  Chaurikharka is worthwhile to get to in any season, but it has a different charm during the monsoon. Word has spread and because it is now easy to get to from Baglung or even Pokhara, people have been flocking here.&nbsp; “Holidays and Saturdays see the largest crowds, with up to 500 visitors every day,” says ward chair Mankaji Pun of Bhume.&nbsp; There was a time not too long ago when local herders brought sheep, goats, cows, buffaloes, horses, and mules to graze here during the monsoon. Although there are still livestock around, animals have been replaced by visitors taking selfies. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-monsoon-and-nature-s-arithmetic">The monsoon, and nature’s arithmetic</a>, Tom Robertson Ward Chair Pun says infrastructure development is his main priority. A foot trail to Chaurikharka was built last year by the Tourism Division Office in Kohalpur, but access via the Raniwas-Koipa road section still remains challenging.&nbsp; “If we get more budget, we can improve the road and facilities to make Chaurikharka the main tourist attraction of this region,” says Bhume Municipality Chair Hom Prakash Shrestha. “After that, we hope to promote Chaurikharka as a top tourist spot.”&nbsp; Economic activity is also picking up with the arrival of visitors, but there seems to be a need to manage the makeshift sheds made of corrugated sheets that spoil the beauty of the place. Tea shops and lodges are also available but facilities are basic. Kuldeep Neupane took a three-day trip from Ghorahi in Dang to visit Chaurikharka recently, and says: “This is an ideal trip to make a quick getaway and let nature recharge your mind and body. And it is much more fun with a tent, to watch the sunrise over the Himalaya or the mist blowing in.”

Visit Nepal in the monsoon

Two weeks ago, Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli announced jubilantly on social media that Nepal had achieved a historic annual growth of 81.8% in exports. He was right. Nepal’s trade did take a great leap forward compared to last year. But the dramatic rise was mainly due to processed soya bean oil.&nbsp; However, Nepal does not produce the edible oil it exports. In fact, the soya and palm oil that make up 44% of total exports are imported from Southeast Asia and South America, and simply re-exported, mostly to India.&nbsp; Under the SAFTA (South Asian Free Trade Area) Agreement, Nepal can export products to India duty-free if it has at least 30% value-added. Nepal’s traders have taken advantage of SAFTA even though the edible oils they export do not reach that value addition threshold. “The 30% value addition requirement is often only on paper,” says former commerce secretary Purushottam Ojha. “It is clear that simply packaging edible oils in Nepal does not fulfil the terms of the trade agreement.” Prime Minister Oli is aware of this, and even called Nepal’s export figures “fake” at an earlier event. The government is relying on other iffy figures to suggest that Nepal’s economy is strong and getting stronger. For example, the value of imports rose by 13.25% in 2024-25 compared to the previous fiscal year.&nbsp; Some of it was due to a jump in electric vehicle imports worth Rs 31.76 billion, but mostly it was because more wholesale soya oil was imported to be re-packaged and sold in India. The very fact that the government boasts about increased imports is an indication of how much it relies on taxing them for revenue. Touting such trade figures cannot be the basis to claim an economic rebound.&nbsp; “A jump in the value of imports can be interpreted as an increase in purchasing power, but it is not evidence of a stronger economy,” says economist Keshav Acharya. “Even though imports have increased, Nepal's domestic production and productive capacity have not improved.” Nepal Rastra Bank's semi-annual economic activity study report shows that industrial production was down in the first six months of the last fiscal year. This despite an increase in the number of new industries registered and investment commitments. Out of the Rs70.2 billion proposed foreign investment, Nepal received only Rs17.9 billion last year.&nbsp; Meanwhile, the rate of capital formation was limited to 24% last year, which is lower than the year before, suggesting that new investment, job creation and economic expansion all declined. If domestic production does not improve in relation to this year’s inflated trade figures, the outflow will put pressure on foreign exchange reserves like it did three years ago. At that time, Nepal borrowed from the IMF under its Extended Credit Facility Program to kickstart the economy.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025080710084_2cdaaa5795828c4a7de93a0604ba884ef0a8b8f24cccd939f6c24e279ab6058f.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="2025080710084_2cdaaa5795828c4a7de93a0604ba884ef0a8b8f24cccd939f6c24e279ab6058f" data-rendition-name="original" width="1633" height="723" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal's bubble economy NT"> <figcaption>Source: NEPAL RASTRA BANK</figcaption> </figure>  The macroeconomy is on firm footing with foreign exchange reserves at a comfortable Rs2,520 billion in May, up 23% from last year. This was largely due to remittances, and partly due to a falling NPR exchange rate. Real estate transactions and the stock market index have also been climbing as a result of government policies to revive the sector.&nbsp; However, former executive director of Nepal Rastra Bank Nar Bahadur Thapa cautions: “This is not organic growth, it is the result of deliberate policy decisions to relax rules on real estate and stock markets transactions.” In reality, the sharp rise in land prices have increased the cost of production, and excessive monetisation of the real estate has become the main source of Nepal’s economic woes. The central bank has announced a slew of new policies, shifting the terms of loan repayment for industrialists and entrepreneurs, reducing interest rates, and injecting more working capital — all designed to inject adrenaline into the real estate and stock market sectors.&nbsp; When he was governor, Mahaprasad Adhikari made several financial reforms during the latter half of his tenure to stimulate the economy, including tightening credit flow.&nbsp; By the last fiscal year, additional financial reforms had resulted in a credit expansion rate of around 8%. As the pace of credit expansion slows, real estate prices have started to fall. This is actually beneficial to the economy, because it lays the foundation for improvements in land-related entrepreneurship, production, and the construction sector. Just because real estate and the stock market transactions increase, it does not indicate an economic turnaround — especially when manufacturing and productive sector continues to languish.&nbsp; “It is foolish to believe that real estate and the stock market have magically revived our economy. Agriculture employs more than half of the population, but it is in decline. Investment in the productive sector has not increased, and job creation has not increased.” Two years ago, Nepal’s industrialists, business leaders, and political leadership predicted a recession amidst a sluggish business, declining market demand, large-scale job loss, and a shrinking real estate and share market.&nbsp; Still, the economy grew by 3.36% in fiscal year 2023/24. In fact, Nepal’s economy has grown nominally over the last two decades even when all sectors of the economy are in decline.&nbsp; Says Keshav Acharya: “The growth in trade, real estate, and the stock market are bubbles. The real economy remains stagnant.”

Nepal’s bubble economy

The final investigation report on the crash of a Saurya Airlines jet on 24 July 2024 at Kathmandu airport has revealed flaws in the carrier’s technical operation procedures, poor monitoring by the Civil Aviation Authority of Nepal (CAAN) and gaps in the airport’s emergency response. Eighteen people including a child were killed, and only the captain survived as the plane plunged seconds after takeoff, crashing within the airport perimeter. This was the latest in a series of aircraft accidents in previous years, and further tarnished Nepal’s already poor aviation safety record and contributed to the country being retained in the EU’s air safety list. &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; The circumstances in the Saurya crash were different from the Yeti Airlines crash in Pokhara in January 2022 that killed all 72 on board, and two Tara Air crashes in February 2016 and May 2022 on approach to Jomsom that together claimed 45 lives. However, all four tragedies were a result of negligence of carriers and crew, failure to follow procedures, regulatory slackness, and overconfidence. The Saurya crash, especially, was a glaring example of how an ailing airline broke its own rules to allow passengers, including non-employees, a joy ride to Pokhara on a maintenance ferry flight. CRASH REPORT The Final Investigation Report prepared by the Aircraft Accident Investigation Commission and released on the first anniversary of the crash last week carried a long list of rules that were ignored or broken, and of regulatory failure. The first mistake was to cram spares, tools and inflammable chemicals needed for the aircraft’s C-Check in Pokhara into the cargo hold flouting its own ground handling procedures.&nbsp; There was no check-in of passengers, some of whom were not even employees – even though regulations say only flight and maintenance crew should be on board a maintenance positioning flight. Many brought their own luggage into the plane and stored it unsecured in the cabin. There was no flight attendant to give a safety briefing to passengers. The load and trim charts given to the flight crew were rough estimates, and the total takeoff weight of the plane was 18,300kg plus or minus 200 kg. That would still have been all right, but there was a glaring mistake in the speedchart Saurya pilots were using to calculate the minimum takeoff speed (known as VR), and it had been wrong ever since the 21-year-old aircraft entered service with the airline in 2017. FAULTY DATA&nbsp; The Commission probed Flight Data Recorder inputs from previous takeoffs of the Canadian-built CRJ200-LR in 2023-2024 and found that the undetected error in the speedchart had caused the plane to pitch up at an abnormal rotation rate at least 18 times on previous takeoffs.&nbsp; Any rotation rate more than 3°/sec is regarded as unusual. But on at least two occasions, this aircraft with tail number 9N-AME had rotation rates of 5.8°/sec and 5.5°/sec, the second one was when the pilot who survived was flying in March 2024.&nbsp; On this particular day, the plane’s rotation rate was 6.5°/sec, causing it to go into a deep stall soon after takeoff, the Commission report said. Essentially, the plane was not flying fast enough down the runway to take off safely.&nbsp; It is not yet clear whether excess weight, unsecured luggage, wrong centre of gravity were also factors, but relying on a faulty speedchart for the given takeoff weight, the captain flying pulled back on the yoke before the plane had reached takeoff speed and at a pitch angle that was too steep. The investigation report says the plane then went into a deep stall and started banking right with the stick shaking. At this point, the flight officer on the right hand seat is heard on the cockpit voice recorder saying: “Whoa, whoa, whoa. Sir, Sir, Sir…” It then banked left before the pilot flying turned the plane sharply to the right again in an evasive action to avoid the parking aprons of the international and domestic terminals. Had he not done so, there would have been a disaster of a much greater magnitude at Kathmandu airport that day. The plane scraped the runway with its right wingtip, collided with a container having helicopter spare parts, and plunged into a gully east of the runway, exploding in a fireball. The investigation also noted that the impact forces seemed to be survivable for some occupants. The fire trucks took unnecessarily long to reach the site even though it was inside the airport perimeter. The absence of an ICAO-standard runway strip, inadequate rescue drills, lack of training, and a blocked emergency service gate leading to the crash site were cited as other factors. &nbsp;&nbsp; <h2>Timestamp of a Disaster</h2>  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110724_39cdd04693994ce6e55a5b302905c0fa4884fe85bed21ff0779bb1439f3a5725.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20250731110724_39cdd04693994ce6e55a5b302905c0fa4884fe85bed21ff0779bb1439f3a5725" data-rendition-name="original" width="778" height="826" loading="lazy" alt="Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy NT"> </figure>  11:10:34 - The Saurya Airlines CRJ200 on the takeoff roll from runway 02. It had a takeoff weight of about 18,300kg, but the pilot’s speedcard had a previously undetected mistake about the minimum takeoff speed. 11:10:55 -The plane with tail number 9N-AME goes into deep stall soon after takeoff because it does not have enough speed to lift its weight. The plane also has an abnormally steep nose-up attitude.&nbsp; 11:11:03 - Without enough speed to generate lift, the plane banks right, then left and right again in CCTV photos taken from the domestic apron (below). If it had not banked right, it could have hit the aprons and terminal buildings. Seen parked is Saurya’s other CRJ200 with tail number 9N-ANM.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110732_608132f7225c649125cca2691dd6a6bf930984c5b359e888d7ad9e5eacce3afd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20250731110732_608132f7225c649125cca2691dd6a6bf930984c5b359e888d7ad9e5eacce3afd" data-rendition-name="original" width="770" height="555" loading="lazy" alt="Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy NT"> </figure>  11:11:08 - The plane scrapes the runway with its right wingtip, and falls into the gully. The captain is thrown off the left side of the cockpit and survives. 11:11:15: Plane explodes in a fireball inside the airport perimeter. Firefighters take time to reach the site because of lack of access road and a blocked gate. Read the full investigation report <a href="https://www.tourism.gov.np/files/9N-AME%20AIC%20Final%20Report.pdf">here</a>.

Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy

Nepal is graduating to become a developing country on 24 November 2026 after half-century in the Least Developed Country (LDC) category. By 2030, the country hopes to transition to middle-income status.&nbsp; Everone from Prime Minister K P Oli have boasted that this is a matter of national pride, and will have a multiplier impact on trade and economy.&nbsp; But will it make any difference to the average Nepali? Not unless improved governance <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/why-invest-in-nepal">spurs investment and creates jobs</a>.&nbsp; Countries need to meet at least two of the three criteria in two consecutive triennial reviews to be eligible for graduation from LDC. Nepal has consistently met the thresholds for the Human Assets Index (HAI) and the Economic and Environmental Vulnerability Index (EVI) in 2015, 2018, and 2021. But Nepal was recommended for graduation before meeting the per capita <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/nepals-great-income-divide">Gross National Income (GNI)</a> threshold of $1,306. “A major implication of LDC graduation is the loss of preferential market access available through Generalised System of Preferences (GSP) and other arrangements,” explains economist Sameer Khatiwada. “But over two-thirds of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-doesnt-produce-its-2-biggest-export-items">Nepal’s exports</a> are to India, and the preferential market access to India is through a bilateral trade agreement. This has nothing to do with our LDC status.”  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250815060832_f5eabe7628a8cdf84f33b25d7cef3c4dc8913a26d8e5b253ea52a36e176b8a85.jpg" data-media-id="editor_3" data-image-id="20250815060832_f5eabe7628a8cdf84f33b25d7cef3c4dc8913a26d8e5b253ea52a36e176b8a85" data-rendition-name="original" width="640" height="470" loading="lazy" alt="LDC graduation "> </figure>  Furthermore, a provision under the South Asian Free Trade Area (SAFTA) allows Nepal to export to India duty-free if the items are at least 30% value-added. Nepali traders take advantage of this by re-exporting edible oils without meeting that requirement, falsely boosting Nepal’s exports.“ Following graduation from LDC, the value addition threshold might increase to 40%,” says Kalpana Khanal of the Policy Research Institute. “This is supposed to work to our advantage, because on paper value addition inherently means <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/multimedia/staying-home-to-create-jobs">job creation at home</a>.” But Nepal’s exports to other major destinations will face <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-and-the-us-india-tariff-tiff">tariff increases</a> with the graduation. A South Asia Watch on Trade, Economics and Environment (SWATEE) study shows that while tariff increase in the US market is relatively low (see page 5) it is considerably higher in Europe. The International Trade Centre (ITC) in a 2022 study also estimated that graduation could result in a 4.3% decline in Nepal’s projected exports, but this is excluding the impact of changes in ‘rules of origin’ provisions in preference-granting countries such as the UK and Europe.&nbsp; Nepal’s top export to these preference-granting countries is <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=1482">carpets</a>, and will not be impacted, but other items such as textiles and apparel will be heavily affected due to higher cost of production. The impact will felt mostly by small and medium enterprises which represent the largest share of exports to LDC-specific preference-granting countries. As for the service exports, Nepal never really made use of the World Trade Organization’s LDC services waiver anyway, hence the effect will be minimal, if any. There is also concern about Nepal’s graduation at a time when the global economy is topsy-turvy, amidst <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/turning-point-in-us-india-relations">tariff wars and conflicts</a>. This affects Nepalis abroad directly and may impact <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/more-remittance-more-than-remittance">remittances </a>which hit $11 billion in 2024. In comparison, Nepal only received $350 million in foreign loans and grants last year.&nbsp; Tourism arrivals have finally reached pre-pandemic levels, but bad publicity about pollution, poor infrastructure and bureaucratic hurdles hinder further growth. Manufacturing continues to struggle, while hydropower and the IT sector have taken off.&nbsp; “Look at data -- <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/tourism-needs-a-new-push">tourism arrivals</a> are up, spending is up, IT exports are up, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/why-nepal-needs-to-restore-ev-tax-subsidy">EV sales </a>are up, Europe still needs 85-90 million skilled workers. We are sitting on $16 billion in cash reserves, our balance of payment, foreign exchange reserve, tax to GDP ratio, credit flow are all positive, we have to build on these factors,” says Sujeev Shakya of the Nepal Economic Forum. He adds: “Our mindset creates negativity to promote rent-seeking behaviour, but this cynicism will go away after 2026 with LDC graduation. We must deal with data, look at trends, and projects which will bring in <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/from-the-nepali-press/why-there-is-no-foreign-investment-in-nepal">international investments</a>.” Khanal agrees that investment is not dependent on<a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/backside/Nepal-not-the-least-developed-country,306"> LDC status</a>. The factors that that affect investment are policy stability, a strong legal framework, market potential and ease of doing business. She adds, “That is where our focus needs to be, and we need to retain <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/diaspora-diaries/migrant-worker-returns-to-create-work-at-home?fbclid=IwAR09xJfsClCwn8uRVAmz28CU658vdKpuyDwB_b1sNlvKtAFFnSldnA0JS2g">Nepalis with jobs at home</a> for our sustained growth.” After 2026, financing support from donors and aid agencies could be affected and Nepal will no longer be able to access Least Developed Countries Fund (LDCF) to adapt to the impacts of climate change. But the Global Environment Fund and Green Climate Fund will still be available.“ LDC status does not determine bilateral development aid, that is usually driven by broader <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/looking-beyond-two-boulders">geopolitical considerations</a>,” says Sameer Khatiwada. “The World Bank and Asian Development Bank, which provide concessional loans to Nepal, it is determined mainly by per capita income, not LDC status.” &nbsp;However, Nepal may lose some concessional terms for loans. Nepal is currently a lower-middle-income country as per the World Bank in the bracket for GNI between $1,036 and $4,045. The country is already receiving more loans than grants and in July the World Bank increased its interest rate on loans by 100% from 0.75 to 1.5%. “All this means that the impact of LDC graduation for Nepal might not be as earth-shattering as some tend to think. Countries that have recently graduated, such as Botswana and the Maldives, have shows that graduation is just a step in a country’s development path,” says Khatiwada. Sujeev Shakya also sees the glass as half full, explaining that LDC graduation is just a stepping stone if Nepal has the right policies in place. He adds, “Nepal’s biggest advantage is our<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/investing-in-people"> working age population</a> and we have investments coming in. These aided by how adaptive we are as a society are the very foundations on which Nepal will grow.”

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