<figure><img width="1902" height="1266" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110161152/636d1ed59c7e80680e0af431jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Photo: AMIT MACHAMASI</figcaption></figure>Following initial lab reports that AstraZeneca and VeroCell boosters afford lower or no protection against <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-on-high-alert-for-omicron/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">the new Omicron strain</a>, Nepal Times reached out to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/im-sad-vaccines-are-delayed-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Andrew Pollard</a>, who helped develop the Oxford AstraZeneca vaccines. Majority of the vaccinated Nepalis have been administered either with the Chinese VeroCell or the AstraZeneca Covishield manufactured in India. At least 12.2 million Nepalis (42% of the population) have got at least one dose of vaccine, and 9.7 million have got both jabs (33% of population).Of these 28.5% got the Covishield and 62.1% got the VeroCell which are vector vaccines made from disabled viruses, as per the government figures last updated 18 November. Another 9.2% got J&amp;J. Less than 4,000 have received Pfizer or Moderna which are genetically engineered mRNA vaccines. Nepal currently has nearly 14 million <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/from-scarce-vaccines-to-storage-shortage-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">vaccines in stock</a> and wants to fully vaccinate 40% of the population before offering booster shots by the end of the month.Excerpts of the conversation with Andrew Pollard:Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-has-all-the-conditions-for-an-omicron-surge/">“Nepal has all the conditions for an Omicron surge”</a>, Nepali TimesNepali Times: Is it true that AstraZeneca boosters are not as effective against Omicron?Andrew Pollard: The new coronavirus is here to stay and it will remain with us for decades to come. To do this is will find ways to continue to infect people in communities even if they are vaccinated. The important role of the vaccines is to prevent severe disease and the evidence so far, even with Omicron, does appear to indicate that vaccines are still holding up in preventing most of the severe outcomes.<a style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/omicron-may-not-be-as-risky-but-take-care/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">New variants</a> are able to cause asymptomatic or mild disease in vaccinated people with any of the vaccines that are being used around the world, and Omicron is the champion so far in doing this. But vaccines remain highly effective in preventing severe disease from all variants and make us a lot safer than if we are unvaccinated.Is the negative publicity likely to increase <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/why-is-there-vaccine-hesitancy-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">vaccine hesitancy</a> in Nepal, and fuel the pandemic even more?I think the interpretation of the data is wrong. The evidence is clear, vaccines have already saved millions of lives. A recent analysis showed that AstraZeneca jabs have saved more lives than any other vaccines worldwide.Viral evolution means that Omicron and its children will evade immune responses and allow infections with any of the vaccines. At this moment, Omicron can cause infection whether you have had AstraZeneca or Pfizer with very low protection from both of them. However, the vaccines still prevent severe disease. <img width="400" height="400" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110161152/636d1ed99c7e80680e0af432jpeg.jpg" alt="">Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/living-with-covid-in-2022/">Living with Covid in 2022</a>, Sonia Awale What options Nepal and India can pursue to stop the spread of Omicron? The impact of first/second doses is huge and these should be prioritised over boosters where there is a short supply of doses. Omicron spreads very easily and so it is more likely that the virus will find the unvaccinated and put them at risk, so we do need to get <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/vaccines-or-no-vaccines-mask-and-distance/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">vaccine coverage</a> high everywhere but especially in older adults and those with health conditions who have not yet been vaccinated as they are at greatest risk. Is it time to administer booster doses, and if so, who should get it first? <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/do-nepalis-need-covid-booster-shots/" target="_blank" style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" rel="noopener noreferrer">Boosters</a> do seem to increase antibodies and some early evidence from the UK shows that boosters increase protection against these mild infections. Boosters may be important for some of the frailest in our communities to keep them safe if their protection has waned. Some countries have started booster programs focusing on these risk groups first. Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-needs-to-prepare-for-new-covid-wave/">Nepal needs to prepare for new Covid wave</a>, Cilo Bazakas

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“All vaccines prevent severe Covid”

<figure><img width="2048" height="1364" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111015118/636d05fb9c7e80680e0a5f3ajpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Photo: MONIKA DEUPALA</figcaption></figure>There is breaking news every other day: the United States donates 2 million Moderna shots to Bangladesh and Pakistan. Denmark announces 250,000 AstraZeneca doses to Bhutan. Japan pledges surplus AZ vaccines to Sri Lanka and the Pacific Islands.Nepal is never in the news, even though <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/lonely-wait-of-nepals-elderly-for-2nd-doses/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">1.4 million people still wait for their second doses</a> of Covishield AZ vaccines and another 20 million people need to be inoculated before a possible third wave this year. So far, Nepal has only been gifted or bought vaccines from India, China or the COVAX initiative. It has not even got 1 million vaccines from Serum Institute India that it paid for, and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/no-vax-ask-for-mask/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">all other promises from western countries were never kept</a>.  Nepal’s vaccine diplomacy has failed miserably. And the only silver lining is that there are four million doses of the Chinese Sinopharm VeroCell starting next week to immediately inoculate its above 55 population.Nepal is still recording an excess of 2,000 new cases a day and is seeing a slight daily increase following the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/kathmandu-covid-19-lockdown-relaxed/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">relaxation in travel restrictions</a>. Everyone, the public and the government, seem to have forgotten that the real peak during the first wave last year took place only after the lockdown was eased.“The third wave is already on its way, our figures are going up and we must assume we will be hit by new variants,” says Buddha Basnyat, a physician at Patan Academy of Health Sciences (PAHS). “We must vaccinate as many people as quickly as possible, if not we will get more difficult variants that are potentially resistant to the vaccines.”In other news, the Oxford Vaccine Group which developed the AstraZeneca (AZ) vaccine has found that administering two doses 44-45 weeks produced the highest antibody boost. This news, announced by <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/im-sad-vaccines-are-delayed-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Andrew Pollard</a>, one of the developers of the AZ, is glad tidings for countries like Nepal where people above 65 are waiting for their second doses.Pollard said antibody levels remained elevated for close to a year with <a href="https://www.thehindu.com/sci-tech/health/ten-month-gap-between-astrazeneca-doses-sees-highest-antibody-boost-oxford-study/article35019890.ece" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">a ten-month gap between AZ doses</a>, as well as antibody levels twice that after the second dose among volunteers who were administered a third booster dose, pointing to a long-term, possibly life long immunity, also against variants.“This is great news for the elderly, many of whom are panicking, unable to get their second dose in the recommended time frame. The additional time the study has afforded us shouldn’t lead to complacency in our effort to procure vaccines,” says Sher Bahadur Pun, an epidemiologist at Sukraraj Tropical and Infectious Disease Hospital. <figure><img width="950" height="633" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111015118/636d05fe9c7e80680e0a5f3bjpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Norway, Czech Republic and Denmark have unused AZ shots they want to donate to Nepal, but have been forced to go through <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/hope-hyperbole-and-hypocrisy-of-covax/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">COVAX, which is unlikely to deliver</a> the doses before the end of 2021.On 1 July, Denmark announced that it would donate 250,000 vaccines to Bhutan. However, it is understood that these grants still need to be facilitated by the EU. Also in the news this week is the result of a new modelling study published in the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control’s medical journal Eurosurveillance that further strengthens the link between <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/despite-doubts-nepal-sticks-with-astrazeneca-jabs/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">AZ vaccines and a rare blood clot</a>.The study models four months of a vaccine distribution strategy in France from May 2021 and concludes that using AZ on the entire adult population would avert 10 deaths from Covid among 18-39-year-olds. However, it would be associated with 21 deaths from blood clots in the same age group over the same time period. In other words, <a href="https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40328123.html?type=amp" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">clot risk to younger people from the AZ vaccine</a> is twice as high as Covid death risk. But public health experts in Nepal maintain that the benefit of mass vaccination still far outweighs the risk. “Similar studies in the context of the South Asian population are needed but as it is, transmission risk of Covid is much higher than the individual risk of blood clots here,” says epidemiologist Lhamo Yangchen Sherpa.Buddha Basnyat of PAHS concurs: “The UK with over half of its population fully vaccinated is now being hit by the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/covids-regional-threat-needs-regional-response/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">delta variant</a>, although it has been largely spared from severity due to the mass inoculation. Nepal being mostly unvaccinated is unprotected both from transmission and severity. This should show us where our priority should lie.”The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control finding about clot risk therefore could indirectly be a blessing in disguise for countries like Nepal by further freeing up AZ stockpiles in Europe, as well as Korea and Japan.Even so, blood clot risk has prompted leaders including Germany’s Angela Markel to opt for Moderna as a booster shot to her first dose of AZ jab.Several EU nations including Germany have said mix-and-match doses are safe for Covid prevention, which according to new findings also point to <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/health-57636356" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">a better immune response</a>. This could also offer much-needed flexibility when vaccine supplies are uneven or limited.“We need to introduce mixing and matching also in Nepal in the face of more virulent delta variants, particularly for the elderly who are at the higher risk of developing severity from an infection, instead of waiting endlessly for Covishield,” says Basnyat.At a time when Nepal is yet to recover from a <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/the-real-cost-of-nepals-second-wave/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">devastating second surge</a>, only an equitable vaccination strategy will prevent an even more deadly third wave. But a mere 2.6% of Nepal’s population has been fully vaccinated, and less than 9% has received a single dose of either Covishield or VeroCell shots.  <figure><img width="1594" height="898" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111015118/636d06009c7e80680e0a5f3cjpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>And even the doses are unevenly distributed within the country. More than half the first dose of VeroCell was distributed in Bagmati province, according to the government’s own figures. Moreover, 97% of the booster jabs of VeroCell were used only in Bagmati Province. “We are seeing a similar kind of disparity in vaccination that we saw in testing, concentrated in urban centres and in particular Kathmandu,” notes epidemiologist Lhamo Yanghen Sherpa. “The excuse for using most of the doses in Kathmandu is that people elsewhere refused to inoculate. If that’s the case what is the government and others doing to dispel vaccine myths?” Virologist Sher Bahadur Pun says the government should immediately deploy its 60,000 or so <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/enlisting-female-health-volunteers-to-fight-covid-19/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">female community volunteers</a> and healthcare workers who have historically done such effective work in non-Covid childhood vaccination drives.He adds, “They are spread across the country and are best placed to communicate the significance of vaccines and increase vaccination uptakes at  local levels.”

Sonia Awale

Vaccines too little, too late for Nepal?

<figure><img width="1500" height="970" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110111156/636cd8d39c7e80680e092e63jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Photo: UNICEF</figcaption></figure>After immunising over 1.6 million Nepalis against Covid-19, the government now plans to administer the rest of the 600,000 jabs that it has in stock for second doses starting 20 April. But it needs at least another million shots to cover all those who inoculated in the first and second phases, as well as to complete the inoculation of those 55 years and above.The Health Ministry is banking on the remaining 1 million doses of the AstraZeneca Covidshield that it purchased from the Serum Institute of India. That consignment was not delivered on 15 March as promised after an Indian court banned export of vaccines before demand at home is met. The next batch of Covishield vaccine under the COVAX initiative is also not expected before May. However, the current suspension of vaccinations in Europe, Thailand and other countries may ease the worldwide shortage somewhat. “We will go ahead with second doses as planned, but the third phase aimed at the age group 55-64 will depend on vaccine availability and as of now we don’t have dates on when they are arriving,” admits Shyam Raj Upreti, head of the Government Covid Vaccine Strategy told Nepali Times.The Chinese government, on the other hand, has increased its gift of Sinopharm vaccines to Nepal from 500,000 to 800,000, but China has insisted that Nepal send a plane to collect it from Beijing.The shortfall in supply and procurement challenges forced the Health Ministry to allow private companies to import vaccines, including the Covaxin manufactured by Bharat Biotech in India. “The private sector can help bridge the gap in procurement limitation as well as allow people with the means and the interest to get vaccinated, but all this must be monitored and regulated,” says Sher Bahadur Pun, a virologist at the Teku Hospital.Average coverage was 73% of the eligible population in the first two phases, all of them with the Covishield AstraZeneca vaccine. However, media reports of the suspension of that vaccine in European countries this week due to fears of blood clot among some recipients may increase vaccine hesitancy in Nepal. The suspensions have baffled public health experts who warn that there is neither enough data to justify the decision, nor adequate evidence to blame blood clots on the vaccine. The fact that there have been no serious side effects in Nepal had increased the acceptance level of the vaccine in the public and among frontline health workers in Nepal. “The EU might have different standards from ours but it might be a good idea to monitor serious side effects,” says epidemiologist Lhamo Yangchen Sherpa. “However, the vaccine has been safe in this part of the world, so its benefits far outweigh the risk.”Some experts think the suspension of the vaccine campaigns in Europe may actually be a blessing in disguise for Nepal, which is facing delays in shipments of Covishield it ordered as well as remaining doses under the COVAX initiative from the Serum Institute. That delay and the heftier price tag was blamed on a rise in global demand. So far, the government has only administered Covidshield in Nepal and health authorities here see no reason to discontinue the vaccine without a real causal link between AstraZeneca and the blood clots.“The EU decision to suspend AstraZeneca is very random and counterproductive, it was probably influenced by politics,” says Buddha Basnyat of the Patan Academy of Medical Sciences. “There is evidence this vaccine is safe and protects us specifically from severe symptoms of Covid-19.”Meanwhile, reassured by the vaccination drive and a dramatic drop in infections, Nepalis have gone back to normal, and many have forgotten about precautions. With parts of India hit by a second wave with over 37,000 new cases and 171 additional deaths on Wednesday, experts have advised the Nepal government not to let up on communicating the need to mask up and avoid crowds. “Officials here have stopped testing and are focusing only on vaccinating but even those who have been inoculated must remember that they can still be carriers,” Lhamo Yangchen Sherpa told Nepali Times from Achham. “We have to continue to take safety precaution as if the pandemic is not over, which it is not.”

1.6 million vaccinated, 20 million to go

Nepali Congress (NC) President Gagan Thapa's candidacy in Sarlahi-4 has thrust this Madhes constituency into rare national focus. If Thapa wins and the NC emerges as the largest party, Sarlahi-4 will send Nepal's next prime minister to Parliament. But if he does not, Nepal’s grand old party will face the next years in the opposition to fight another day. There is a troubling paradox in Sarlahi-4 where the district bordering the Indian state of Bihar has been a battleground for national politicians with fierce electoral competition, all while remaining one of the region's most underserved and underdeveloped constituencies.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485.png" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485" data-rendition-name="original" width="1802" height="1276" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: MADHES PAHARA MEDIA</figcaption> </figure>  Ever since Mahant Thakur split from NC in 2008 to form the Tarai Madhes Loktantrik Party, the district has seen rotating political alliances and fragmented votes. Yet, despite 18 years of candidates promising change irrigation schemes remain incomplete, market access for farmers has not improved, unemployment is high.&nbsp; On election day, voters here marked their ballots with fingers stained by dye from the Holi festival the day before. The road leading to Barathawa Bazar was deserted for the most part, except for some youth riding in motorcycles. This is where the high-profile contest between Gagan Thapa and RSP nominee Amresh Singh is being staged. Among the other aspirants is 27-year-old UML candidate Amnish Yadav, the son of former MP Shiv Pujan Yadav. The Yadavs are a political family with considerable caste influence in the constituency. In 2022 Yadav’s daughter Madhumala Yadav received over 14,000 votes here, ranking third overall. Yadav was voted MP from the Maoist party, but defected to the UML this time. His other son is the chair of Sarlahi’s Ramnagar Rural Municipality. Sarhali-4 has 121,012 voters, and the Yadav is banking on the 27,000-strong Yadav vote bank. Sarlahi-4 voter Avishek Sah told us he wanted his vote to go to a young nominee and not someone who has been MP thrice already, like Amresh Singh. &nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10" data-rendition-name="original" width="1200" height="1600" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  To make local loyalties even more complicated, Amnish Yadav’s uncle, Harinder Yadav is an active NC member and walked side by side with Gagan Thapa during his door-to-door campaigns.&nbsp; The NC is betting on Thapa getting over 60% of the total votes. Amresh Singh’s tally could be limited to 10,000 votes — that too because of the nationwide RSP wave, and the popularity of its prime ministerial hopeful Balendra (Balen) Shah. “Amresh Singh lost his appeal when he played victim after he was denied a ticket by the NC in 2022,” Harinder Yadav says. Voters we spoke to here agreed with this assessment that Singh did not do much for the district once he got elected in the past, and being a part of the RSP seems to be his biggest asset. “The only reason I voted for Amresh Singh is because Balen is in RSP,” local voter Mahendra Gupta from Barathawa. &nbsp;“This is his last chance to return the people’s trust.”&nbsp; Gupta is aware of the institutional presence of the NC here. The party received the most votes in 2022 local elections, adding that the candidacy of someone as high-profile as Thapa is a positive sign for Sarlahi-4.&nbsp; Other voters like Ruby Gupta are rooting for both the NC and the RSP. “I will vote for Gagan and for Balen,” she says, adding that her FPTP vote will go to Thapa while her PR ballot would be for the RSP. RSP supporters are confident that their candidate will win big because even though many voters may not have openly voiced their support they still voted for the party and candidate. The Balen Wave was not limited to RSP voters, but also to UML candidate Yadav, who said in a gathering that he will be “the voters Balen” if they elect him. He touted his party’s track record in government, and largely campaigned on administrative efficiency, infrastructural expansion, and local service delivery. Amresh Singh ran on the RSP’s anti-establishment brand, promising to fight corruption, challenge traditional party politics, improve basic services such as education, health, jobs, and infrastructure, while pushing for stronger representation and development for Madhes.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="1200" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo:AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  Singh’s rivalry with his NC competitor goes beyond the ballot— he allegedly blames Thapa for being denied the NC ticket in 2022, which led him to win the election from Sarlahi-4 as an independent. &nbsp; For his part, Gagan Thapa focused on a more pragmatic development agenda that includes upgrading roads and irrigation, improving schools and hospitals, supporting farmers, and creating employment opportunities with improved governance at the centre. He also promised to build an engineering college in the constituency.&nbsp; Thapa also promoted his own anti-establishment image within the NC, repeatedly reminding voters on the campaign trail that he represents the aspirations of the youth.&nbsp; On Thursday, as voting progressed, there were violent disruptions in two centres where voting was briefly halted. But Sarlahi district police spokesperson Saroj Rai told Nepali Times that there were no major problems. Police in collaboration with the Nepal Army sent the ballot papers to the district’s counting stations, where the votes are expected to be tallied through the night and the winner announced Friday morning.

Sarlahi-4 nervously watches ballot count

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Nepal Election live results

As this report is uploaded, the latest results in Nepal’s election show that the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) is headed for an even bigger sweep than most had predicted.
The RSP was leading by large margins in 49 of 165 constituencies, &nbsp;with the UML, NC and NCP trailing far behind. Prominent political figures from the old parties like K P Oli, Minwndra Prasad Rijal, Ishwar Pokhrel, Bishnu Prasad Poudel, Bimalendra Nidhi all seem headed for defeat.
It does look like the RSP’s bell election symbol is ringing right across Nepal — from cities to the remotest districts in the mountains and plains. The party’s blue colour is sweeping the land.
The Nepali people seem to have sent a clear message that they were throughly dissatisfied with the chronic failure of the three main parties to work in the national interest to create jobs and deliver development. It was also an expression of lingering outrage over the the 8 September massacre outside Parliament. &nbsp;
It now looks almost certain that Balendra Shah will get to be Nepal’s next, and youngest, prime minister. Hopefully he will be leading a cabinet of competent and honest technocrats. It remains to seen how the power equation between Shah and the RSP’s leader, Rabi Lamichhane will play out.
Lamichhane is out of jail on bail for fraud cases which he has called political vendetta by the previous regime. Both he and Shah are charismatic and ambitious. Their working relationship will determine Nepal's political stability and whether it can avoid the political cronyism of the past.
This election was not just about casting votes. It was about standing up to principles and a value system, and respecting the hopes and aspirations of Nepal’s youth. It to push for transparent government and against impunity — including for the gunning down of young Nepalis in cold blood.
<div class="embed-block"><iframe src="https://election-geo-dashboard.pages.dev/" width="100%" height="600" frameborder="0"> </iframe>Live election results as winners of candidates are announced.</div>
CAN DO MAN
Shah got mixed reviews as mayor. He was impulsive and ad hoc, but most people inKathmandu and beyond liked his can-do attitude and unconventional style which stood in sharp contract to the legacy leaders. Over his three year mayorship he showed more maturity and planning capacity.&nbsp;
But he always ran headlong into opposition from the federal government over his urban planning and other initiatives to make Kathmandu more liveable. Coming from a civil and structural engineering background, he was involved in building low-cost housing after the 2015 earthquake.
But his public persona is more tied to his irreverent rap lyrics that stood up for the marginalised underprivileged in society, while exposing the high-handedness and apathy of the state. But this also exposed contradictions because he also used his own municipal guards to beat and chase away street vendors and squatters.
But there is no doubt that a combination of the sharp messaging in his rap videos amplified by the algorithms of social media ignited Nepal’s youth to rise up. It was more about optics and emotion than policy and strategy.
He studied Kathmandu district for five years, visiting experts in every field before announcing his independent candidacy for mayor in 2022. Many like me in his own constitunecy did not know who he was and where he came from.
He is a year younger than my architect son, and I saw in him a reflection of my own son’s commitment to serving the nation. I voted for him to be mayor despite his sometimes erratic behaviour, which could be attributed to his youth.
The best sign of his strategic planning, which unsettled septuagenarian and octogenarian politicians, is the he did not grab the first easy option of becoming prime minister in September when GenZ activists offered him the post.&nbsp;
Joining RSP was a masterstroke, as was his challenge to Oli in Jhapa to project national branding. He needed a party platform and Lamichhane needed a popular prime ministerial persona since he himself could not hold the post.
Shah has shown the capacity to take risks when he believes the value justifies the action for the country. Now, he will have to show more strategic thinking on a national scale, as well as understand the delicate geopolitics of Nepal.&nbsp;
He must rise above the kind of crude social media posts that earned him followers on X, but did nothing to erase his erratic and impulsive image.&nbsp;
Some assume that behind his trademark RayBan shades is a closet dictator, and his past remarks about Hitler are still up on social media. He has in the past shown impatience with criticism, unleashing supporters on social media to troll detractors.&nbsp;
Even so, the public seems willing to place their hope on an educated young man with integrity and a proven record for planning at the helm. By tomorrow it will be clear whether the hope Nepalis have held has been fulfilled, and the coming years will show if the RSP will lead Nepalis to a better future.
The voters seem to have shown the door even to the NC despite the fact that under Gagan Thapa, the party had turned a new leaf. A strong government under Prime Minister Balendra Shah heading a carefully selected cabinet and a strong opposition of the NC, UML and other parties for check and balance may be just what we need for a stable Nepal.&nbsp;
Nepalis have collectively always shown maturity in elections. This time they have given a resounding endorsement for integrity and for good governance.

Bells ring all over Nepal

After Thursday’s election, Nepalis are in a wait-and-watch mode. The Election Commission says counting ballot papers will be expedited this time, and the results for the First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) will start being declared within days. In 2022, it took three weeks for the final results to be tallied.&nbsp;
But winning an election is only half the challenge for the parties, forming a government under parliamentary politics is like a complicated mathematical equation.&nbsp;
In 2022, the Nepali Congress (NC) emerged as the biggest party, winning 89 seats. But the UML with 78 seats and the Maoists with 32 formed a minority government. In fact, Sher Bahadur Deuba did not become PM then despite leading the biggest party in Parliament.
This time, there is an unmistakeable Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) wave led by its prime ministerial candidate, Balendra Shah. Besides his own popularity, Shah represents change which most Nepalis are clamouring for after decades of corrupt and feckless coalitions that did not deliver.&nbsp;
The past months of campaigning has seen massive youth engagement on social media through memes, AI clips, and viral images. Digital content that appeals to emotion rather than policy debate between candidates shape electoral outcomes in Nepal and elsewhere. &nbsp;
Shah represents GenZ aspirations, and was their candidate for prime minister. It was only when he declined that Sushila Karki was nominated. None of the political parties in the recent past -- new, old, or revolutionary — have won enough seats to go it alone.&nbsp;
The most recent majority government was formed by the short-lived Communist Party of Nepal after the UML-Maoist merger in 2022. But that rare two-thirds majority collapsed after a power struggle between K P Oli and Pushpa Kamal Dahal. The only party to have won a majority was the NC in the 1991 and 1999 elections. But it is near impossible for it to repeat this success now, even with Gagan Thapa's rebranding of the party.&nbsp;
We have compiled these possible scenarios for election outcome in order of likelihood:
RSP gets a majority
RSP hits the magic 138 to form a government entirely on its own. Balendra Shah wins Jhapa-5, and becomes the new prime minister at 35, the youngest ever to hold the office in Nepal. But danger lurks: there could be a personality clash between Shah and Lamichhane who are both equally ambitious. History could repeat itself.&nbsp;
RSP wins but does not get a majority
RSP is likely to sweep the most votes, but what if it does not secure enough seats for a majority? It would need a coalition partner and Nepali Communist Party (NCP) under Pushpa Kamal Dahal could fit the bill, but only if it has the numbers. The RSP is not likely to team up with the UML or NC.
The NCP is relatively untainted by the 8 September events, and also has former UML defectors like Madhav Kumar Nepal and Bhim Rawal who could bag their rural vote banks. After all, there are no permanent foes in politics. If the royalist RPP and Tarai-based Janata Samajwadi have enough seats, those could be options for the RSP. &nbsp;
NC is second
The NC under the new leadership of Gagan Thapa could become the second biggest force and form a government with RSP in a power-sharing deal with Shah. This would be the most stable scenario since the RSP and NC have competent and idealistic young technocrats. Thapa himself embodies a strong combination of both old and new politics to navigate the system for more efficient government. But then Thapa and the RSP's Rabi Lamichhane do not get along.
NC and NCP form a majority
If the NC becomes the largest party but not by a big margin, it could join up with the NCP and Ujyalo. Teaming up with the UML would likely face backlash with the party and outside. If Gagan Thapa becomes prime minister he will face internal pressure from both Deuba loyalists. Same old story.
Minority coalition of NC, UML and NCP
RSP becomes the first party but does not get a majority, paving the way for the three legacy parties to cobble together a minority government. While this is possible in Nepal’s parliamentary system, such a scenario is likely to lead to more instability and dissatisfaction among young Nepalis demanding change, and even trigger street unrest. &nbsp;