<figure><img width="1902" height="1266" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110161152/636d1ed59c7e80680e0af431jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Photo: AMIT MACHAMASI</figcaption></figure>Following initial lab reports that AstraZeneca and VeroCell boosters afford lower or no protection against <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-on-high-alert-for-omicron/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">the new Omicron strain</a>, Nepal Times reached out to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/im-sad-vaccines-are-delayed-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Andrew Pollard</a>, who helped develop the Oxford AstraZeneca vaccines. Majority of the vaccinated Nepalis have been administered either with the Chinese VeroCell or the AstraZeneca Covishield manufactured in India. At least 12.2 million Nepalis (42% of the population) have got at least one dose of vaccine, and 9.7 million have got both jabs (33% of population).Of these 28.5% got the Covishield and 62.1% got the VeroCell which are vector vaccines made from disabled viruses, as per the government figures last updated 18 November. Another 9.2% got J&amp;J. Less than 4,000 have received Pfizer or Moderna which are genetically engineered mRNA vaccines. Nepal currently has nearly 14 million <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/from-scarce-vaccines-to-storage-shortage-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">vaccines in stock</a> and wants to fully vaccinate 40% of the population before offering booster shots by the end of the month.Excerpts of the conversation with Andrew Pollard:Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-has-all-the-conditions-for-an-omicron-surge/">“Nepal has all the conditions for an Omicron surge”</a>, Nepali TimesNepali Times: Is it true that AstraZeneca boosters are not as effective against Omicron?Andrew Pollard: The new coronavirus is here to stay and it will remain with us for decades to come. To do this is will find ways to continue to infect people in communities even if they are vaccinated. The important role of the vaccines is to prevent severe disease and the evidence so far, even with Omicron, does appear to indicate that vaccines are still holding up in preventing most of the severe outcomes.<a style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/omicron-may-not-be-as-risky-but-take-care/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">New variants</a> are able to cause asymptomatic or mild disease in vaccinated people with any of the vaccines that are being used around the world, and Omicron is the champion so far in doing this. But vaccines remain highly effective in preventing severe disease from all variants and make us a lot safer than if we are unvaccinated.Is the negative publicity likely to increase <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/why-is-there-vaccine-hesitancy-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">vaccine hesitancy</a> in Nepal, and fuel the pandemic even more?I think the interpretation of the data is wrong. The evidence is clear, vaccines have already saved millions of lives. A recent analysis showed that AstraZeneca jabs have saved more lives than any other vaccines worldwide.Viral evolution means that Omicron and its children will evade immune responses and allow infections with any of the vaccines. At this moment, Omicron can cause infection whether you have had AstraZeneca or Pfizer with very low protection from both of them. However, the vaccines still prevent severe disease. <img width="400" height="400" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110161152/636d1ed99c7e80680e0af432jpeg.jpg" alt="">Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/living-with-covid-in-2022/">Living with Covid in 2022</a>, Sonia Awale What options Nepal and India can pursue to stop the spread of Omicron? The impact of first/second doses is huge and these should be prioritised over boosters where there is a short supply of doses. Omicron spreads very easily and so it is more likely that the virus will find the unvaccinated and put them at risk, so we do need to get <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/vaccines-or-no-vaccines-mask-and-distance/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">vaccine coverage</a> high everywhere but especially in older adults and those with health conditions who have not yet been vaccinated as they are at greatest risk. Is it time to administer booster doses, and if so, who should get it first? <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/do-nepalis-need-covid-booster-shots/" target="_blank" style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" rel="noopener noreferrer">Boosters</a> do seem to increase antibodies and some early evidence from the UK shows that boosters increase protection against these mild infections. Boosters may be important for some of the frailest in our communities to keep them safe if their protection has waned. Some countries have started booster programs focusing on these risk groups first. Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-needs-to-prepare-for-new-covid-wave/">Nepal needs to prepare for new Covid wave</a>, Cilo Bazakas

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“All vaccines prevent severe Covid”

<figure><img width="2048" height="1364" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111015118/636d05fb9c7e80680e0a5f3ajpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Photo: MONIKA DEUPALA</figcaption></figure>There is breaking news every other day: the United States donates 2 million Moderna shots to Bangladesh and Pakistan. Denmark announces 250,000 AstraZeneca doses to Bhutan. Japan pledges surplus AZ vaccines to Sri Lanka and the Pacific Islands.Nepal is never in the news, even though <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/lonely-wait-of-nepals-elderly-for-2nd-doses/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">1.4 million people still wait for their second doses</a> of Covishield AZ vaccines and another 20 million people need to be inoculated before a possible third wave this year. So far, Nepal has only been gifted or bought vaccines from India, China or the COVAX initiative. It has not even got 1 million vaccines from Serum Institute India that it paid for, and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/no-vax-ask-for-mask/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">all other promises from western countries were never kept</a>.  Nepal’s vaccine diplomacy has failed miserably. And the only silver lining is that there are four million doses of the Chinese Sinopharm VeroCell starting next week to immediately inoculate its above 55 population.Nepal is still recording an excess of 2,000 new cases a day and is seeing a slight daily increase following the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/kathmandu-covid-19-lockdown-relaxed/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">relaxation in travel restrictions</a>. Everyone, the public and the government, seem to have forgotten that the real peak during the first wave last year took place only after the lockdown was eased.“The third wave is already on its way, our figures are going up and we must assume we will be hit by new variants,” says Buddha Basnyat, a physician at Patan Academy of Health Sciences (PAHS). “We must vaccinate as many people as quickly as possible, if not we will get more difficult variants that are potentially resistant to the vaccines.”In other news, the Oxford Vaccine Group which developed the AstraZeneca (AZ) vaccine has found that administering two doses 44-45 weeks produced the highest antibody boost. This news, announced by <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/im-sad-vaccines-are-delayed-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Andrew Pollard</a>, one of the developers of the AZ, is glad tidings for countries like Nepal where people above 65 are waiting for their second doses.Pollard said antibody levels remained elevated for close to a year with <a href="https://www.thehindu.com/sci-tech/health/ten-month-gap-between-astrazeneca-doses-sees-highest-antibody-boost-oxford-study/article35019890.ece" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">a ten-month gap between AZ doses</a>, as well as antibody levels twice that after the second dose among volunteers who were administered a third booster dose, pointing to a long-term, possibly life long immunity, also against variants.“This is great news for the elderly, many of whom are panicking, unable to get their second dose in the recommended time frame. The additional time the study has afforded us shouldn’t lead to complacency in our effort to procure vaccines,” says Sher Bahadur Pun, an epidemiologist at Sukraraj Tropical and Infectious Disease Hospital. <figure><img width="950" height="633" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111015118/636d05fe9c7e80680e0a5f3bjpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>Norway, Czech Republic and Denmark have unused AZ shots they want to donate to Nepal, but have been forced to go through <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/hope-hyperbole-and-hypocrisy-of-covax/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">COVAX, which is unlikely to deliver</a> the doses before the end of 2021.On 1 July, Denmark announced that it would donate 250,000 vaccines to Bhutan. However, it is understood that these grants still need to be facilitated by the EU. Also in the news this week is the result of a new modelling study published in the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control’s medical journal Eurosurveillance that further strengthens the link between <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/despite-doubts-nepal-sticks-with-astrazeneca-jabs/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">AZ vaccines and a rare blood clot</a>.The study models four months of a vaccine distribution strategy in France from May 2021 and concludes that using AZ on the entire adult population would avert 10 deaths from Covid among 18-39-year-olds. However, it would be associated with 21 deaths from blood clots in the same age group over the same time period. In other words, <a href="https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40328123.html?type=amp" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">clot risk to younger people from the AZ vaccine</a> is twice as high as Covid death risk. But public health experts in Nepal maintain that the benefit of mass vaccination still far outweighs the risk. “Similar studies in the context of the South Asian population are needed but as it is, transmission risk of Covid is much higher than the individual risk of blood clots here,” says epidemiologist Lhamo Yangchen Sherpa.Buddha Basnyat of PAHS concurs: “The UK with over half of its population fully vaccinated is now being hit by the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/covids-regional-threat-needs-regional-response/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">delta variant</a>, although it has been largely spared from severity due to the mass inoculation. Nepal being mostly unvaccinated is unprotected both from transmission and severity. This should show us where our priority should lie.”The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control finding about clot risk therefore could indirectly be a blessing in disguise for countries like Nepal by further freeing up AZ stockpiles in Europe, as well as Korea and Japan.Even so, blood clot risk has prompted leaders including Germany’s Angela Markel to opt for Moderna as a booster shot to her first dose of AZ jab.Several EU nations including Germany have said mix-and-match doses are safe for Covid prevention, which according to new findings also point to <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/health-57636356" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">a better immune response</a>. This could also offer much-needed flexibility when vaccine supplies are uneven or limited.“We need to introduce mixing and matching also in Nepal in the face of more virulent delta variants, particularly for the elderly who are at the higher risk of developing severity from an infection, instead of waiting endlessly for Covishield,” says Basnyat.At a time when Nepal is yet to recover from a <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/the-real-cost-of-nepals-second-wave/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">devastating second surge</a>, only an equitable vaccination strategy will prevent an even more deadly third wave. But a mere 2.6% of Nepal’s population has been fully vaccinated, and less than 9% has received a single dose of either Covishield or VeroCell shots.  <figure><img width="1594" height="898" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111015118/636d06009c7e80680e0a5f3cjpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>And even the doses are unevenly distributed within the country. More than half the first dose of VeroCell was distributed in Bagmati province, according to the government’s own figures. Moreover, 97% of the booster jabs of VeroCell were used only in Bagmati Province. “We are seeing a similar kind of disparity in vaccination that we saw in testing, concentrated in urban centres and in particular Kathmandu,” notes epidemiologist Lhamo Yanghen Sherpa. “The excuse for using most of the doses in Kathmandu is that people elsewhere refused to inoculate. If that’s the case what is the government and others doing to dispel vaccine myths?” Virologist Sher Bahadur Pun says the government should immediately deploy its 60,000 or so <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/enlisting-female-health-volunteers-to-fight-covid-19/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">female community volunteers</a> and healthcare workers who have historically done such effective work in non-Covid childhood vaccination drives.He adds, “They are spread across the country and are best placed to communicate the significance of vaccines and increase vaccination uptakes at  local levels.”

Sonia Awale

Vaccines too little, too late for Nepal?

<figure><img width="1500" height="970" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110111156/636cd8d39c7e80680e092e63jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Photo: UNICEF</figcaption></figure>After immunising over 1.6 million Nepalis against Covid-19, the government now plans to administer the rest of the 600,000 jabs that it has in stock for second doses starting 20 April. But it needs at least another million shots to cover all those who inoculated in the first and second phases, as well as to complete the inoculation of those 55 years and above.The Health Ministry is banking on the remaining 1 million doses of the AstraZeneca Covidshield that it purchased from the Serum Institute of India. That consignment was not delivered on 15 March as promised after an Indian court banned export of vaccines before demand at home is met. The next batch of Covishield vaccine under the COVAX initiative is also not expected before May. However, the current suspension of vaccinations in Europe, Thailand and other countries may ease the worldwide shortage somewhat. “We will go ahead with second doses as planned, but the third phase aimed at the age group 55-64 will depend on vaccine availability and as of now we don’t have dates on when they are arriving,” admits Shyam Raj Upreti, head of the Government Covid Vaccine Strategy told Nepali Times.The Chinese government, on the other hand, has increased its gift of Sinopharm vaccines to Nepal from 500,000 to 800,000, but China has insisted that Nepal send a plane to collect it from Beijing.The shortfall in supply and procurement challenges forced the Health Ministry to allow private companies to import vaccines, including the Covaxin manufactured by Bharat Biotech in India. “The private sector can help bridge the gap in procurement limitation as well as allow people with the means and the interest to get vaccinated, but all this must be monitored and regulated,” says Sher Bahadur Pun, a virologist at the Teku Hospital.Average coverage was 73% of the eligible population in the first two phases, all of them with the Covishield AstraZeneca vaccine. However, media reports of the suspension of that vaccine in European countries this week due to fears of blood clot among some recipients may increase vaccine hesitancy in Nepal. The suspensions have baffled public health experts who warn that there is neither enough data to justify the decision, nor adequate evidence to blame blood clots on the vaccine. The fact that there have been no serious side effects in Nepal had increased the acceptance level of the vaccine in the public and among frontline health workers in Nepal. “The EU might have different standards from ours but it might be a good idea to monitor serious side effects,” says epidemiologist Lhamo Yangchen Sherpa. “However, the vaccine has been safe in this part of the world, so its benefits far outweigh the risk.”Some experts think the suspension of the vaccine campaigns in Europe may actually be a blessing in disguise for Nepal, which is facing delays in shipments of Covishield it ordered as well as remaining doses under the COVAX initiative from the Serum Institute. That delay and the heftier price tag was blamed on a rise in global demand. So far, the government has only administered Covidshield in Nepal and health authorities here see no reason to discontinue the vaccine without a real causal link between AstraZeneca and the blood clots.“The EU decision to suspend AstraZeneca is very random and counterproductive, it was probably influenced by politics,” says Buddha Basnyat of the Patan Academy of Medical Sciences. “There is evidence this vaccine is safe and protects us specifically from severe symptoms of Covid-19.”Meanwhile, reassured by the vaccination drive and a dramatic drop in infections, Nepalis have gone back to normal, and many have forgotten about precautions. With parts of India hit by a second wave with over 37,000 new cases and 171 additional deaths on Wednesday, experts have advised the Nepal government not to let up on communicating the need to mask up and avoid crowds. “Officials here have stopped testing and are focusing only on vaccinating but even those who have been inoculated must remember that they can still be carriers,” Lhamo Yangchen Sherpa told Nepali Times from Achham. “We have to continue to take safety precaution as if the pandemic is not over, which it is not.”

1.6 million vaccinated, 20 million to go

The monsoon has got bad press because Nepal’s tourism operators actively told visitors to avoid <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/managing-the-monsoon?%2F">the rainy season</a>. It is time to change that. The reason can be found right here in the vast alpine meadows of Central Nepal where this time of year you can walk on velvet grass of pastures abloom with delicate pink, red and yellow flowers as the mist rolls up the valley. There is no sound except the hum of bumble bees. &nbsp;&nbsp; There are dozens of places across high Nepal called Chaurikharka, which means yak pasture. But this particular Chaurikharka in Rukum East located at an altitude of 4,000m stands out for its serene beauty, rustic charm and bucolic setting. There is just the occasional chime of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/when-yaks-go-so-does-culture">yak bells</a> in the distance, and the sharp whistle of herders corralling sheep. &nbsp;&nbsp; The grass shoots are so fragile that one hesitates to step on them, the rounded ridges appear and quickly vanish in waves of mist. With the<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/before-the-next-monsoon"> arrival of monsoon</a>, these meadows are a soothing shade of green dotted with millions of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/review/the-anatomy-of-a-flower?%2F=">multi-coloured flowers</a>. Until very recently, it took a week or so to hike up to places like Chaurikharka, but with the expansion of the road network even to these far-flung mountains in the lap of Dhaulagiri, they are much more accessible. It is just a three-hour uphill from the Mid-Hill Highway on the border between Baglung and Rukum East.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250802130828_a0b06b494d751b2144ffbbf10894ea64b29e8aed844bc8c66171783abfaf4e16.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20250802130828_a0b06b494d751b2144ffbbf10894ea64b29e8aed844bc8c66171783abfaf4e16" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1365" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon"> </figure>  Purists would say that such easy access devalues the sanctity of these remote high meadows, but it also means more people will be moved to treasure the experience, appreciate <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/natures-fragile-gift-to-nepal">the value of nature </a>so they can take steps to protect it.&nbsp; To be sure, the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/deadly-monsoon-in-nepal-turns-deadlier">monsoon season can be challenging for road travel</a>. The roads are rough even at the best of times, and in the monsoon they become muddy and treacherous, often blocked by<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/monsoon-deluge-in-nepal"> landslides</a>. But that could be precisely the kind of adventure that the more intrepid visitors crave. Improved road connectivity has already made Chaurikharka and places like Badimallika &nbsp;and other sacred lakes in the mountains of western Nepal popular with domestic tourists. What is driving this traffic is the urge to go to exotic new places and share videos and selfies on social media. Several of Nepal’s travel vloggers have visited Chaurikharka and popularised the place, enticing followers on TikTok or YouTube to retrace their footsteps. But even as they become more popular, these fragile and once-remote places should be protected from over-tourism.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110736_f97110b7cdc3e7f80d5877690948fc9f4c95a09c583deb23b07355491e6c5446.jpg" data-media-id="editor_8" data-image-id="20250731110736_f97110b7cdc3e7f80d5877690948fc9f4c95a09c583deb23b07355491e6c5446" data-rendition-name="original" width="1083" height="699" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon NT"> </figure>  <h2>INCREASING FOOTFALL</h2> Chaurikharka is located in Bhume Rural Municipality of East Rukum, near the scenic valley of Dhorpatan in Baglung district. Even in the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/monsoon-culture">middle of the monsoon</a>, there is a steady stream of Nepali hikers trooping to these high pastures – especially during festival days like Saune Sankranti which this year was on 17 July and actually marks the auspicious beginning of the monsoon here. “This year the rains have not been as heavy and there have been some clear mornings when we could see everything from Dhaulagiri to Machapuchre,” says Khageswar Bhandari, who trekked up here from the road. “The flowers, the greenery and the snowy mountain views make this an incredibly unique place.”&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250802130824_1b9e26f2e9853fdfe69154bb42a7c9ea6da4bf4940efc1da99b304dcfbd7d3d9.jpg" data-media-id="editor_10" data-image-id="20250802130824_1b9e26f2e9853fdfe69154bb42a7c9ea6da4bf4940efc1da99b304dcfbd7d3d9" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1152" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon"> </figure>  Chaurikharka is worthwhile to get to in any season, but it has a different charm during the monsoon. Word has spread and because it is now easy to get to from Baglung or even Pokhara, people have been flocking here.&nbsp; “Holidays and Saturdays see the largest crowds, with up to 500 visitors every day,” says ward chair Mankaji Pun of Bhume.&nbsp; There was a time not too long ago when local herders brought sheep, goats, cows, buffaloes, horses, and mules to graze here during the monsoon. Although there are still livestock around, animals have been replaced by visitors taking selfies. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-monsoon-and-nature-s-arithmetic">The monsoon, and nature’s arithmetic</a>, Tom Robertson Ward Chair Pun says infrastructure development is his main priority. A foot trail to Chaurikharka was built last year by the Tourism Division Office in Kohalpur, but access via the Raniwas-Koipa road section still remains challenging.&nbsp; “If we get more budget, we can improve the road and facilities to make Chaurikharka the main tourist attraction of this region,” says Bhume Municipality Chair Hom Prakash Shrestha. “After that, we hope to promote Chaurikharka as a top tourist spot.”&nbsp; Economic activity is also picking up with the arrival of visitors, but there seems to be a need to manage the makeshift sheds made of corrugated sheets that spoil the beauty of the place. Tea shops and lodges are also available but facilities are basic. Kuldeep Neupane took a three-day trip from Ghorahi in Dang to visit Chaurikharka recently, and says: “This is an ideal trip to make a quick getaway and let nature recharge your mind and body. And it is much more fun with a tent, to watch the sunrise over the Himalaya or the mist blowing in.”

Visit Nepal in the monsoon

Two weeks ago, Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli announced jubilantly on social media that Nepal had achieved a historic annual growth of 81.8% in exports. He was right. Nepal’s trade did take a great leap forward compared to last year. But the dramatic rise was mainly due to processed soya bean oil.&nbsp; However, Nepal does not produce the edible oil it exports. In fact, the soya and palm oil that make up 44% of total exports are imported from Southeast Asia and South America, and simply re-exported, mostly to India.&nbsp; Under the SAFTA (South Asian Free Trade Area) Agreement, Nepal can export products to India duty-free if it has at least 30% value-added. Nepal’s traders have taken advantage of SAFTA even though the edible oils they export do not reach that value addition threshold. “The 30% value addition requirement is often only on paper,” says former commerce secretary Purushottam Ojha. “It is clear that simply packaging edible oils in Nepal does not fulfil the terms of the trade agreement.” Prime Minister Oli is aware of this, and even called Nepal’s export figures “fake” at an earlier event. The government is relying on other iffy figures to suggest that Nepal’s economy is strong and getting stronger. For example, the value of imports rose by 13.25% in 2024-25 compared to the previous fiscal year.&nbsp; Some of it was due to a jump in electric vehicle imports worth Rs 31.76 billion, but mostly it was because more wholesale soya oil was imported to be re-packaged and sold in India. The very fact that the government boasts about increased imports is an indication of how much it relies on taxing them for revenue. Touting such trade figures cannot be the basis to claim an economic rebound.&nbsp; “A jump in the value of imports can be interpreted as an increase in purchasing power, but it is not evidence of a stronger economy,” says economist Keshav Acharya. “Even though imports have increased, Nepal's domestic production and productive capacity have not improved.” Nepal Rastra Bank's semi-annual economic activity study report shows that industrial production was down in the first six months of the last fiscal year. This despite an increase in the number of new industries registered and investment commitments. Out of the Rs70.2 billion proposed foreign investment, Nepal received only Rs17.9 billion last year.&nbsp; Meanwhile, the rate of capital formation was limited to 24% last year, which is lower than the year before, suggesting that new investment, job creation and economic expansion all declined. If domestic production does not improve in relation to this year’s inflated trade figures, the outflow will put pressure on foreign exchange reserves like it did three years ago. At that time, Nepal borrowed from the IMF under its Extended Credit Facility Program to kickstart the economy.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025080710084_2cdaaa5795828c4a7de93a0604ba884ef0a8b8f24cccd939f6c24e279ab6058f.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="2025080710084_2cdaaa5795828c4a7de93a0604ba884ef0a8b8f24cccd939f6c24e279ab6058f" data-rendition-name="original" width="1633" height="723" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal's bubble economy NT"> <figcaption>Source: NEPAL RASTRA BANK</figcaption> </figure>  The macroeconomy is on firm footing with foreign exchange reserves at a comfortable Rs2,520 billion in May, up 23% from last year. This was largely due to remittances, and partly due to a falling NPR exchange rate. Real estate transactions and the stock market index have also been climbing as a result of government policies to revive the sector.&nbsp; However, former executive director of Nepal Rastra Bank Nar Bahadur Thapa cautions: “This is not organic growth, it is the result of deliberate policy decisions to relax rules on real estate and stock markets transactions.” In reality, the sharp rise in land prices have increased the cost of production, and excessive monetisation of the real estate has become the main source of Nepal’s economic woes. The central bank has announced a slew of new policies, shifting the terms of loan repayment for industrialists and entrepreneurs, reducing interest rates, and injecting more working capital — all designed to inject adrenaline into the real estate and stock market sectors.&nbsp; When he was governor, Mahaprasad Adhikari made several financial reforms during the latter half of his tenure to stimulate the economy, including tightening credit flow.&nbsp; By the last fiscal year, additional financial reforms had resulted in a credit expansion rate of around 8%. As the pace of credit expansion slows, real estate prices have started to fall. This is actually beneficial to the economy, because it lays the foundation for improvements in land-related entrepreneurship, production, and the construction sector. Just because real estate and the stock market transactions increase, it does not indicate an economic turnaround — especially when manufacturing and productive sector continues to languish.&nbsp; “It is foolish to believe that real estate and the stock market have magically revived our economy. Agriculture employs more than half of the population, but it is in decline. Investment in the productive sector has not increased, and job creation has not increased.” Two years ago, Nepal’s industrialists, business leaders, and political leadership predicted a recession amidst a sluggish business, declining market demand, large-scale job loss, and a shrinking real estate and share market.&nbsp; Still, the economy grew by 3.36% in fiscal year 2023/24. In fact, Nepal’s economy has grown nominally over the last two decades even when all sectors of the economy are in decline.&nbsp; Says Keshav Acharya: “The growth in trade, real estate, and the stock market are bubbles. The real economy remains stagnant.”

Nepal’s bubble economy

The final investigation report on the crash of a Saurya Airlines jet on 24 July 2024 at Kathmandu airport has revealed flaws in the carrier’s technical operation procedures, poor monitoring by the Civil Aviation Authority of Nepal (CAAN) and gaps in the airport’s emergency response. Eighteen people including a child were killed, and only the captain survived as the plane plunged seconds after takeoff, crashing within the airport perimeter. This was the latest in a series of aircraft accidents in previous years, and further tarnished Nepal’s already poor aviation safety record and contributed to the country being retained in the EU’s air safety list. &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; The circumstances in the Saurya crash were different from the Yeti Airlines crash in Pokhara in January 2022 that killed all 72 on board, and two Tara Air crashes in February 2016 and May 2022 on approach to Jomsom that together claimed 45 lives. However, all four tragedies were a result of negligence of carriers and crew, failure to follow procedures, regulatory slackness, and overconfidence. The Saurya crash, especially, was a glaring example of how an ailing airline broke its own rules to allow passengers, including non-employees, a joy ride to Pokhara on a maintenance ferry flight. CRASH REPORT The Final Investigation Report prepared by the Aircraft Accident Investigation Commission and released on the first anniversary of the crash last week carried a long list of rules that were ignored or broken, and of regulatory failure. The first mistake was to cram spares, tools and inflammable chemicals needed for the aircraft’s C-Check in Pokhara into the cargo hold flouting its own ground handling procedures.&nbsp; There was no check-in of passengers, some of whom were not even employees – even though regulations say only flight and maintenance crew should be on board a maintenance positioning flight. Many brought their own luggage into the plane and stored it unsecured in the cabin. There was no flight attendant to give a safety briefing to passengers. The load and trim charts given to the flight crew were rough estimates, and the total takeoff weight of the plane was 18,300kg plus or minus 200 kg. That would still have been all right, but there was a glaring mistake in the speedchart Saurya pilots were using to calculate the minimum takeoff speed (known as VR), and it had been wrong ever since the 21-year-old aircraft entered service with the airline in 2017. FAULTY DATA&nbsp; The Commission probed Flight Data Recorder inputs from previous takeoffs of the Canadian-built CRJ200-LR in 2023-2024 and found that the undetected error in the speedchart had caused the plane to pitch up at an abnormal rotation rate at least 18 times on previous takeoffs.&nbsp; Any rotation rate more than 3°/sec is regarded as unusual. But on at least two occasions, this aircraft with tail number 9N-AME had rotation rates of 5.8°/sec and 5.5°/sec, the second one was when the pilot who survived was flying in March 2024.&nbsp; On this particular day, the plane’s rotation rate was 6.5°/sec, causing it to go into a deep stall soon after takeoff, the Commission report said. Essentially, the plane was not flying fast enough down the runway to take off safely.&nbsp; It is not yet clear whether excess weight, unsecured luggage, wrong centre of gravity were also factors, but relying on a faulty speedchart for the given takeoff weight, the captain flying pulled back on the yoke before the plane had reached takeoff speed and at a pitch angle that was too steep. The investigation report says the plane then went into a deep stall and started banking right with the stick shaking. At this point, the flight officer on the right hand seat is heard on the cockpit voice recorder saying: “Whoa, whoa, whoa. Sir, Sir, Sir…” It then banked left before the pilot flying turned the plane sharply to the right again in an evasive action to avoid the parking aprons of the international and domestic terminals. Had he not done so, there would have been a disaster of a much greater magnitude at Kathmandu airport that day. The plane scraped the runway with its right wingtip, collided with a container having helicopter spare parts, and plunged into a gully east of the runway, exploding in a fireball. The investigation also noted that the impact forces seemed to be survivable for some occupants. The fire trucks took unnecessarily long to reach the site even though it was inside the airport perimeter. The absence of an ICAO-standard runway strip, inadequate rescue drills, lack of training, and a blocked emergency service gate leading to the crash site were cited as other factors. &nbsp;&nbsp; <h2>Timestamp of a Disaster</h2>  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110724_39cdd04693994ce6e55a5b302905c0fa4884fe85bed21ff0779bb1439f3a5725.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20250731110724_39cdd04693994ce6e55a5b302905c0fa4884fe85bed21ff0779bb1439f3a5725" data-rendition-name="original" width="778" height="826" loading="lazy" alt="Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy NT"> </figure>  11:10:34 - The Saurya Airlines CRJ200 on the takeoff roll from runway 02. It had a takeoff weight of about 18,300kg, but the pilot’s speedcard had a previously undetected mistake about the minimum takeoff speed. 11:10:55 -The plane with tail number 9N-AME goes into deep stall soon after takeoff because it does not have enough speed to lift its weight. The plane also has an abnormally steep nose-up attitude.&nbsp; 11:11:03 - Without enough speed to generate lift, the plane banks right, then left and right again in CCTV photos taken from the domestic apron (below). If it had not banked right, it could have hit the aprons and terminal buildings. Seen parked is Saurya’s other CRJ200 with tail number 9N-ANM.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110732_608132f7225c649125cca2691dd6a6bf930984c5b359e888d7ad9e5eacce3afd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20250731110732_608132f7225c649125cca2691dd6a6bf930984c5b359e888d7ad9e5eacce3afd" data-rendition-name="original" width="770" height="555" loading="lazy" alt="Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy NT"> </figure>  11:11:08 - The plane scrapes the runway with its right wingtip, and falls into the gully. The captain is thrown off the left side of the cockpit and survives. 11:11:15: Plane explodes in a fireball inside the airport perimeter. Firefighters take time to reach the site because of lack of access road and a blocked gate. Read the full investigation report <a href="https://www.tourism.gov.np/files/9N-AME%20AIC%20Final%20Report.pdf">here</a>.

Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy

American artist Peter Makela was in Nepal in 2022 on a Fulbright scholarship when he experienced the Matya festival in Patan in which devotees made the rounds of the city’s shrines.&nbsp;
He joined the procession, walking through 2,600 stupa and 140 bahal of the town. That immersion left a lasting impression.
As part of Gallery Mcube’s international residency program in Patan, he put his inspiration to canvas in the exhibition Yala Yatra: Walking, Working, Worshipping. The exhibition also coincides with this month’s Matya festival.&nbsp;
Makela has visited Nepal often in the past 11 years but he mostly stayed in and spent his time around Boudha. “This time I stayed in Patan, put the sites I wanted to visit on my map, and off I went,” he tells us. “Each of my artwork is inspired by the stupas and shrines in Patan that I visited.”
The stupa and Ganesh are recurring motifs in his watercolours, and the elephant gods are located in chaityas — reflecting the interplay and blending of the Hindu and Buddhist faiths in Kathmandu Valley.&nbsp;
The stupas and Ganesh are painted in vivid red, yellow, blue and green against abstract backgrounds meant to represent the sky.
“I use the sky as a backdrop because the sky has no border,” says Makela. “The four colours represent the four elements, the different Buddha families and also lights bouncing off of a rainbow.”
The use of just four colours for all the artwork stands out, and combined with the absence of heavy canvases, frames or stands render Makela’s art striking in its simplicity.&nbsp;
The Ganesh is always holding something and the art also portrays the elephant god’s sacred vehicle, the mouse.
While his vibrant stupas and Ganesh reflect the tangibility of Patan’s tradition and heritage, it is as if the backdrops with their shades of grey and red and yellow capture the soul of the city’s shrines.
“If you look closely, there is a sense of form and formlessness at the same time,” he says.&nbsp;
Makela walked 108 kora around the shrines during his exploration of the town, and in the process developed a spiritual connection with Patan’s heritage and traditions.&nbsp;
The exhibition connects with visitors on a deeper, more spiritual, level as well. And with it, they feel a sense of pride as well as the need to urgently preserve Patan’s heritage for future generations.
“Peter’s inclination and approach towards Nepali art and culture is fascinating, and it reflects in his work,” says Mcube curator Manish Lal Shrestha, whose international artist residency program promotes Nepal’s cultural heritage. &nbsp;&nbsp;
Yala Yatra: Walking, Working, Worshipping
1-5 August&nbsp;
10AM-7PM
Gallery Mcube, Patan