<figure><img width="640" height="893" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110151112/636d07139c7e80680e0a5f9cjpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Illustration: DIWAKAR CHETTRI</figcaption></figure>At 75, Sher Bahadur Deuba is Nepal’s prime minister for the fifth time in 26 years -- joining the ranks of other serial prime ministers Surya Bahadur Thapa and Girija Prasad Koirala. That fact alone shows that the structural defects in Nepali politics remain intact, so politicians can keep returning to power without learning from, and atoning to, past mistakes.Deuba first became prime minister of a coalition government under similar circumstances in 1995 after the Supreme Court overturned the decision to dissolve Parliament by Manmohan Adhikari, who was leading a minority UML government.Since then, Deuba has led the country through key moments in Nepal’s history: during King Birendra’s reign, after King Gyanendra’s coup, in interim governments after the peace accord in 2006, and during the first federal elections in 2017 under the new Constitution.But Deuba’s long political career is replete with mis-steps and controversy.He must have had a sense of déjà vu as he challenged K P Oli’s leadership, since he himself dissolved Parliament during his second term in 2002, after which King Gyanendra sacked him for being ‘incompetent’.Deuba was then dismissed by his Nepali Congress (NC), which led him to found a breakaway faction. The same kind of power struggle that brought down the UML also plagued his party: first with GP Koirala and currently with Ram Chandra Paudel as the NC prepares for its convention.Deuba was in power when he waged war on the Maoists, who had placed a bounty, dead or alive, on his head. The fact that he now shares power with Pushpa Kamal Dahal of the Maoist Centre proves the adage that there are no permanent enemies in politics.In 2005, after his third tenure, Deuba was arrested and sentenced to two years in prison for corruption, but was released after the court dismissed the case.After the 2017 election, Deuba handed over prime ministership to K P Oli. But even while Oli fought off the leadership challenge from the Dahal-Nepal combine, Deuba did not join them till earlier this year. It must have been Deuba’s destiny to bookend Oli’s term as Prime Minister and succeed him.Deuba’s fifth term is already off to a shaky start, and the choice of Pampha Bhusal and Janardan Sharma from the Maoist Centre in powerful ministries shows the kind compromises he has made with Dahal.Deuba also has a month to face a floor test in the House. If he can get 136 votes out of 271 seats, he can govern till elections in 2023. If he cannot, then Nepal has to go for early elections in six months. In May, the anti-Oli alliance under Deuba’s leadership had the support of 149 lawmakers — 61 from his own NC, 49 from the MC, 23 members of the UML Nepal faction, and 12 from the Yadav-Bhattarai faction of the JSP. The 23 votes of the Nepal faction will be crucial for Deuba, and some Nepal loyalists know that the UML will split if they vote for Deuba. But party insiders say there is now too much bad blood for Oli to offer Nepal the olive branch.Most Nepalis, while glad that the uncertainty in the UML has ended, are dismayed that the parties could find no one more promising than Deuba to lead the country. Deuba’s first task is to bring his disparate Cabinet members to make up for time that the Oli government squandered in dealing with the Covid-19 health and economic emergency, obtain vaccines to prevent a third wave, and deal with a disastrous monsoon season.They do not have high hopes.

Shristi Karki

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<img width="1750" height="1034" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110151112/636d070f9c7e80680e0a5f9bjpeg.jpg" alt=""/>So, this is the price Nepalis had to pay for two leaders of the ruling party <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/court-debates-nepal-pm-olis-future/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">not being able to sort out their personal differences</a>. This is the toll the UML has also had to bear for the intractable ego-clash between its two headstrong leaders.
If any entity wanted to shatter Nepal’s communist parties into smithereens, they could not have done a better job than K P Oli. First, he <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/efforts-to-cobble-back-the-uml/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">decoupled the NCP from the UML</a>, and then went on to split the UML itself. Along the way, he also detached the ex-Maoist members of the JSP from the main party.
Those who blame this on an outside anti-Communist force are deluding themselves. The Nepal Communist Party, the Maoist Centre or the United Marxists-Leninists are only euphemistically ‘communist’, and they have disintegrated because of the tunnel vision and contradictions of their own comrades.
It may be an indication of just how far off-script K P Oli had drifted while trying to stave off multiple mutinies that he brought two personalities as<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/2-ex-pms-vie-to-be-nepal-pm/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"> disparate as Sher Bahadur Deuba and Pushpa Kamal Dahal together</a>.
To be sure, Deuba and Dahal have shared power before. But this time, the two sworn enemies who tried to physically annihilate each other till 2006 have joined hands to ‘protect democracy’.
Seeing many of the venomous comments on social media, most Nepalis see through this. They are glad the prolonged paralysis of government is over, but aghast that politicians with such chequered pasts have become guardians and defenders of democracy and constitutionalism.
Each of the members of the anti-Oli alliance are now demanding their pound of flesh from Deuba, and the first ministerial appointments are already an indication of the division of the spoils.
Deuba has another 28 days to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/deubas-long-and-winding-road/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">win a confidence test</a> in the House, and he has kept key portfolios as carrots for the JSP faction, and perhaps even UML dissidents.
Licking wounds in his Balkot lair, Oli will also be trying to retain as many of the Nepal faction as possible in the UML, even though he probably will not mind untethering Nepal once and for all.
Oli and Nepal have inflicted too many unkind cuts on each other, and are seething so much with vengeance that even mediators have given up. Oli is banking on enough of Nepal’s supporters valuing party unity for the next elections over their loyalty to Nepal.
While Deuba grapples with trying to appease members of his own NC, Dahal’s MC and the Bhattarai-Yadav JSP, Oli’s sights are already on the next elections.
Governing Nepal is difficult at the best of times, but try grappling with the multiple crises the country faces during the pandemic. Knowing Deuba’s past track record, and the near impossible task of reconciling the ambitions of the Maoists in government in the run-up to elections, Oli must sense that the next vote will be anti-incumbent.
As soon as he became prime minister, Deuba already faced strong pressure from Dahal to give the Maoists the powerful Home Ministry portfolio. Deuba appointed trusted supporter Bal Krishna Khand as Home Minister, but in return had to hand over the finance portfolio to the Dahal-appointee Janardan Sharma.
Dahal himself has to balance expectations and ambitions among his own comrades, and has superseded other aspirants to appoint Sharma to the Finance Ministry which controls budget allocations and money flows — crucial at election time.
The other Maoist in Deuba’s cabinet is Pampha Bhusal with the energy and water resource portfolio, another ministry with access to purse strings.
However much many disliked Oli, most Nepalis are asking if the only alternative was to bring a four-time prime minister back for the fifth time. And Deuba’s first ministerial appointments portend it is politics as usual: a predictable lack of transparency, woeful failure of governance and service delivery.
That is exactly what the UML is hoping for, so that the failure of the past three years will be blamed on the incumbent rather than on Oli.
Deuba could launder his legacy by proving everyone wrong by launching an effective social safety net campaign to help Nepalis whose livelihoods are impacted by the pandemic, and to confront the pandemic by vaccinating 70% of the population by end-2021.
Only that will convince Nepalis that this Deuba avatar is different.

From the fire into the frying pan

<figure><img width="2048" height="1365" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110151112/636d06fd9c7e80680e0a5f95jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Photos: AMIT MACHAMASI</figcaption></figure>On Tuesday, Sher Bahadur Deuba <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/reinstate-remove-repeat/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">was appointed Nepal’s Prime Minister for the fifth time</a> in 26 years.The 75-year old veteran of Nepali politics is one of three leaders to have been appointed Prime Minister five times in the country’s political history, joining the ranks of Rastriya Prajatantra Party leader Surya Bahadur Thapa and Nepali Congress monolith Girija Prasad Koirala. Deuba took over the lead after the Supreme Court ordered him to be appointed as the next Prime Minister and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-court-orders-deuba-to-succeed-oli/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">restored the House of Representatives</a> that Prime Minister KP Oli had dissolved for the second time on 22 May.Deuba first became Prime Minister of a coalition government under similar circumstances, after Prime Minister Manmohan Adhikari, leading a minority government, tried and failed to dissolve parliament in 1995.Since then, Deuba has been at the helm through key moments in Nepal’s history: during King Birendra's reigh, after King Gyanendra’s coup, in interim governments after the peace accord in 2006, and during the first elections at all three levels of Nepal’s federal government. <img width="2048" height="1322" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110151112/636d07009c7e80680e0a5f96jpeg.jpg" alt=""><img width="640" height="437" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110151112/636d07039c7e80680e0a5f97jpeg.jpg" alt="">But Deuba’s long political career has been mired in uncertainties and controversies. His political fight to stop KP Oli from dissolving parliament is reminiscent of when Deuba himself dissolved Parliament during his second term in 2002, following which he was removed as Prime Minister by King Gynandera, who branded him incompetent. Deuba was then dismissed from his own party, which led him to found the breakaway Nepali Congress (Democratic).In 2005, after his third term as Prime Minister and subsequent removal by King Gyanendra, Deuba was arrested and sentenced to two years in prison after the then Royal Commission for Corruption Control (RCCC) claimed to have found him involved in corruption in the $500 million Melamchi drinking water project. He was <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=10699#.YO-uNdUzaJA" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">released </a>after the court ruled the anti-corruption panel unconstitutional. In 2018, Deuba resigned during his fourth term to make way for KP Oli’s appointment to office. And having succeeded him on Tuesday, Deuba effectively bookended Oli’s terms as Prime Minister.Deuba’s fifth term was off to a shaky start, with his oath of office on Tuesday having been delayed following a controversy over the initial letter from the Office of the President, which failed to mention the constitutional provision under which he was appointed Prime Minister. The newly-appointed Prime Minister must now seek a vote of confidence in the House of Representatives within 30 days under Article 76(6) of the Constitution. Deuba will need a simple majority of 136 out of 271 current members in Parliament to pass the floor test and retain office. <figure><img width="2016" height="1186" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110151112/636d07079c7e80680e0a5f98jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>In May, Deuba in his attempt to lead the country had the support of 149 lawmakers of the opposition alliance, which included 61 members of his own Nepali Congress, 49 lawmakers from the Maoist Centre, 23 members from the dissident Nepal faction of the UML, and 12 from the Yadav-Bhattarai faction of the JSP. Now, with Madhav Kumar Nepal, who led the dissident UML faction in support of Deuba’s Prime Ministership bid, withdrawing his support from the opposition alliance, Deuba’s biggest challenge lies in securing a majority in parliament.If Deuba passes the floor test, he will remain Prime Minister for the remainder of the tenure of the House. If he fails to get a vote of confidence, Deuba will have to make way for and preside over snap elections to be held within the next six months under Article 76 (7) of the Constitution. <img width="317" height="462" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110151112/636d07099c7e80680e0a5f99jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figure><img width="1271" height="850" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110151112/636d070c9c7e80680e0a5f9ajpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>For his part, Oli had been trying to patch things up with Nepal before the Supreme Court ruling to try to retain party unity. However, that did not stop the outgoing Prime Minister in his address to the nation on Monday from casting the responsibility of the court’s verdict on the ‘chaotic and undisciplined’ dissident UML signatories who supported Deuba to become Prime Minister. As it stands, some lawmakers from the Nepal faction have assured that they will still back Deuba in Parliament. “We will definitely vote for him, as we have clearly stated in the writ petition submitted to the apex court,” said UML’s Birodh Khatiwoda. UML leader Kalyani Khadka also reaffirmed her support for Deuba, saying that the repeated dissolution of the parliament needs to stop. In fact, UML lawmaker Metmani Chaudhary, urging not to doubt their support of Deuba, went so far as to say, "Not only will the 23 members who signed the writ petition cast their confidence vote [for Sher Bahadur Deuba], other MPs from the UML will as well." Deuba has inherited leadership in the midst of a pandemic that has claimed the lives of nearly 10,000 Nepalis. And with his political future uncertain, if he manages to hold on to office, the Prime Minister will be faced with securing enough Covid vaccines for Nepal’s eligible population, coordinating disaster response for deadly monsoon floods across the country, and reviving an economy in ruins.

Deuba’s long and winding road

The monsoon has got bad press because Nepal’s tourism operators actively told visitors to avoid <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/managing-the-monsoon?%2F">the rainy season</a>. It is time to change that. The reason can be found right here in the vast alpine meadows of Central Nepal where this time of year you can walk on velvet grass of pastures abloom with delicate pink, red and yellow flowers as the mist rolls up the valley. There is no sound except the hum of bumble bees. &nbsp;&nbsp; There are dozens of places across high Nepal called Chaurikharka, which means yak pasture. But this particular Chaurikharka in Rukum East located at an altitude of 4,000m stands out for its serene beauty, rustic charm and bucolic setting. There is just the occasional chime of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/when-yaks-go-so-does-culture">yak bells</a> in the distance, and the sharp whistle of herders corralling sheep. &nbsp;&nbsp; The grass shoots are so fragile that one hesitates to step on them, the rounded ridges appear and quickly vanish in waves of mist. With the<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/before-the-next-monsoon"> arrival of monsoon</a>, these meadows are a soothing shade of green dotted with millions of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/review/the-anatomy-of-a-flower?%2F=">multi-coloured flowers</a>. Until very recently, it took a week or so to hike up to places like Chaurikharka, but with the expansion of the road network even to these far-flung mountains in the lap of Dhaulagiri, they are much more accessible. It is just a three-hour uphill from the Mid-Hill Highway on the border between Baglung and Rukum East.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250802130828_a0b06b494d751b2144ffbbf10894ea64b29e8aed844bc8c66171783abfaf4e16.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20250802130828_a0b06b494d751b2144ffbbf10894ea64b29e8aed844bc8c66171783abfaf4e16" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1365" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon"> </figure>  Purists would say that such easy access devalues the sanctity of these remote high meadows, but it also means more people will be moved to treasure the experience, appreciate <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/natures-fragile-gift-to-nepal">the value of nature </a>so they can take steps to protect it.&nbsp; To be sure, the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/deadly-monsoon-in-nepal-turns-deadlier">monsoon season can be challenging for road travel</a>. The roads are rough even at the best of times, and in the monsoon they become muddy and treacherous, often blocked by<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/monsoon-deluge-in-nepal"> landslides</a>. But that could be precisely the kind of adventure that the more intrepid visitors crave. Improved road connectivity has already made Chaurikharka and places like Badimallika &nbsp;and other sacred lakes in the mountains of western Nepal popular with domestic tourists. What is driving this traffic is the urge to go to exotic new places and share videos and selfies on social media. Several of Nepal’s travel vloggers have visited Chaurikharka and popularised the place, enticing followers on TikTok or YouTube to retrace their footsteps. But even as they become more popular, these fragile and once-remote places should be protected from over-tourism.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110736_f97110b7cdc3e7f80d5877690948fc9f4c95a09c583deb23b07355491e6c5446.jpg" data-media-id="editor_8" data-image-id="20250731110736_f97110b7cdc3e7f80d5877690948fc9f4c95a09c583deb23b07355491e6c5446" data-rendition-name="original" width="1083" height="699" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon NT"> </figure>  <h2>INCREASING FOOTFALL</h2> Chaurikharka is located in Bhume Rural Municipality of East Rukum, near the scenic valley of Dhorpatan in Baglung district. Even in the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/monsoon-culture">middle of the monsoon</a>, there is a steady stream of Nepali hikers trooping to these high pastures – especially during festival days like Saune Sankranti which this year was on 17 July and actually marks the auspicious beginning of the monsoon here. “This year the rains have not been as heavy and there have been some clear mornings when we could see everything from Dhaulagiri to Machapuchre,” says Khageswar Bhandari, who trekked up here from the road. “The flowers, the greenery and the snowy mountain views make this an incredibly unique place.”&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250802130824_1b9e26f2e9853fdfe69154bb42a7c9ea6da4bf4940efc1da99b304dcfbd7d3d9.jpg" data-media-id="editor_10" data-image-id="20250802130824_1b9e26f2e9853fdfe69154bb42a7c9ea6da4bf4940efc1da99b304dcfbd7d3d9" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1152" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon"> </figure>  Chaurikharka is worthwhile to get to in any season, but it has a different charm during the monsoon. Word has spread and because it is now easy to get to from Baglung or even Pokhara, people have been flocking here.&nbsp; “Holidays and Saturdays see the largest crowds, with up to 500 visitors every day,” says ward chair Mankaji Pun of Bhume.&nbsp; There was a time not too long ago when local herders brought sheep, goats, cows, buffaloes, horses, and mules to graze here during the monsoon. Although there are still livestock around, animals have been replaced by visitors taking selfies. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-monsoon-and-nature-s-arithmetic">The monsoon, and nature’s arithmetic</a>, Tom Robertson Ward Chair Pun says infrastructure development is his main priority. A foot trail to Chaurikharka was built last year by the Tourism Division Office in Kohalpur, but access via the Raniwas-Koipa road section still remains challenging.&nbsp; “If we get more budget, we can improve the road and facilities to make Chaurikharka the main tourist attraction of this region,” says Bhume Municipality Chair Hom Prakash Shrestha. “After that, we hope to promote Chaurikharka as a top tourist spot.”&nbsp; Economic activity is also picking up with the arrival of visitors, but there seems to be a need to manage the makeshift sheds made of corrugated sheets that spoil the beauty of the place. Tea shops and lodges are also available but facilities are basic. Kuldeep Neupane took a three-day trip from Ghorahi in Dang to visit Chaurikharka recently, and says: “This is an ideal trip to make a quick getaway and let nature recharge your mind and body. And it is much more fun with a tent, to watch the sunrise over the Himalaya or the mist blowing in.”

Visit Nepal in the monsoon

Two weeks ago, Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli announced jubilantly on social media that Nepal had achieved a historic annual growth of 81.8% in exports. He was right. Nepal’s trade did take a great leap forward compared to last year. But the dramatic rise was mainly due to processed soya bean oil.&nbsp; However, Nepal does not produce the edible oil it exports. In fact, the soya and palm oil that make up 44% of total exports are imported from Southeast Asia and South America, and simply re-exported, mostly to India.&nbsp; Under the SAFTA (South Asian Free Trade Area) Agreement, Nepal can export products to India duty-free if it has at least 30% value-added. Nepal’s traders have taken advantage of SAFTA even though the edible oils they export do not reach that value addition threshold. “The 30% value addition requirement is often only on paper,” says former commerce secretary Purushottam Ojha. “It is clear that simply packaging edible oils in Nepal does not fulfil the terms of the trade agreement.” Prime Minister Oli is aware of this, and even called Nepal’s export figures “fake” at an earlier event. The government is relying on other iffy figures to suggest that Nepal’s economy is strong and getting stronger. For example, the value of imports rose by 13.25% in 2024-25 compared to the previous fiscal year.&nbsp; Some of it was due to a jump in electric vehicle imports worth Rs 31.76 billion, but mostly it was because more wholesale soya oil was imported to be re-packaged and sold in India. The very fact that the government boasts about increased imports is an indication of how much it relies on taxing them for revenue. Touting such trade figures cannot be the basis to claim an economic rebound.&nbsp; “A jump in the value of imports can be interpreted as an increase in purchasing power, but it is not evidence of a stronger economy,” says economist Keshav Acharya. “Even though imports have increased, Nepal's domestic production and productive capacity have not improved.” Nepal Rastra Bank's semi-annual economic activity study report shows that industrial production was down in the first six months of the last fiscal year. This despite an increase in the number of new industries registered and investment commitments. Out of the Rs70.2 billion proposed foreign investment, Nepal received only Rs17.9 billion last year.&nbsp; Meanwhile, the rate of capital formation was limited to 24% last year, which is lower than the year before, suggesting that new investment, job creation and economic expansion all declined. If domestic production does not improve in relation to this year’s inflated trade figures, the outflow will put pressure on foreign exchange reserves like it did three years ago. At that time, Nepal borrowed from the IMF under its Extended Credit Facility Program to kickstart the economy.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025080710084_2cdaaa5795828c4a7de93a0604ba884ef0a8b8f24cccd939f6c24e279ab6058f.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="2025080710084_2cdaaa5795828c4a7de93a0604ba884ef0a8b8f24cccd939f6c24e279ab6058f" data-rendition-name="original" width="1633" height="723" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal's bubble economy NT"> <figcaption>Source: NEPAL RASTRA BANK</figcaption> </figure>  The macroeconomy is on firm footing with foreign exchange reserves at a comfortable Rs2,520 billion in May, up 23% from last year. This was largely due to remittances, and partly due to a falling NPR exchange rate. Real estate transactions and the stock market index have also been climbing as a result of government policies to revive the sector.&nbsp; However, former executive director of Nepal Rastra Bank Nar Bahadur Thapa cautions: “This is not organic growth, it is the result of deliberate policy decisions to relax rules on real estate and stock markets transactions.” In reality, the sharp rise in land prices have increased the cost of production, and excessive monetisation of the real estate has become the main source of Nepal’s economic woes. The central bank has announced a slew of new policies, shifting the terms of loan repayment for industrialists and entrepreneurs, reducing interest rates, and injecting more working capital — all designed to inject adrenaline into the real estate and stock market sectors.&nbsp; When he was governor, Mahaprasad Adhikari made several financial reforms during the latter half of his tenure to stimulate the economy, including tightening credit flow.&nbsp; By the last fiscal year, additional financial reforms had resulted in a credit expansion rate of around 8%. As the pace of credit expansion slows, real estate prices have started to fall. This is actually beneficial to the economy, because it lays the foundation for improvements in land-related entrepreneurship, production, and the construction sector. Just because real estate and the stock market transactions increase, it does not indicate an economic turnaround — especially when manufacturing and productive sector continues to languish.&nbsp; “It is foolish to believe that real estate and the stock market have magically revived our economy. Agriculture employs more than half of the population, but it is in decline. Investment in the productive sector has not increased, and job creation has not increased.” Two years ago, Nepal’s industrialists, business leaders, and political leadership predicted a recession amidst a sluggish business, declining market demand, large-scale job loss, and a shrinking real estate and share market.&nbsp; Still, the economy grew by 3.36% in fiscal year 2023/24. In fact, Nepal’s economy has grown nominally over the last two decades even when all sectors of the economy are in decline.&nbsp; Says Keshav Acharya: “The growth in trade, real estate, and the stock market are bubbles. The real economy remains stagnant.”

Nepal’s bubble economy

The final investigation report on the crash of a Saurya Airlines jet on 24 July 2024 at Kathmandu airport has revealed flaws in the carrier’s technical operation procedures, poor monitoring by the Civil Aviation Authority of Nepal (CAAN) and gaps in the airport’s emergency response. Eighteen people including a child were killed, and only the captain survived as the plane plunged seconds after takeoff, crashing within the airport perimeter. This was the latest in a series of aircraft accidents in previous years, and further tarnished Nepal’s already poor aviation safety record and contributed to the country being retained in the EU’s air safety list. &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; The circumstances in the Saurya crash were different from the Yeti Airlines crash in Pokhara in January 2022 that killed all 72 on board, and two Tara Air crashes in February 2016 and May 2022 on approach to Jomsom that together claimed 45 lives. However, all four tragedies were a result of negligence of carriers and crew, failure to follow procedures, regulatory slackness, and overconfidence. The Saurya crash, especially, was a glaring example of how an ailing airline broke its own rules to allow passengers, including non-employees, a joy ride to Pokhara on a maintenance ferry flight. CRASH REPORT The Final Investigation Report prepared by the Aircraft Accident Investigation Commission and released on the first anniversary of the crash last week carried a long list of rules that were ignored or broken, and of regulatory failure. The first mistake was to cram spares, tools and inflammable chemicals needed for the aircraft’s C-Check in Pokhara into the cargo hold flouting its own ground handling procedures.&nbsp; There was no check-in of passengers, some of whom were not even employees – even though regulations say only flight and maintenance crew should be on board a maintenance positioning flight. Many brought their own luggage into the plane and stored it unsecured in the cabin. There was no flight attendant to give a safety briefing to passengers. The load and trim charts given to the flight crew were rough estimates, and the total takeoff weight of the plane was 18,300kg plus or minus 200 kg. That would still have been all right, but there was a glaring mistake in the speedchart Saurya pilots were using to calculate the minimum takeoff speed (known as VR), and it had been wrong ever since the 21-year-old aircraft entered service with the airline in 2017. FAULTY DATA&nbsp; The Commission probed Flight Data Recorder inputs from previous takeoffs of the Canadian-built CRJ200-LR in 2023-2024 and found that the undetected error in the speedchart had caused the plane to pitch up at an abnormal rotation rate at least 18 times on previous takeoffs.&nbsp; Any rotation rate more than 3°/sec is regarded as unusual. But on at least two occasions, this aircraft with tail number 9N-AME had rotation rates of 5.8°/sec and 5.5°/sec, the second one was when the pilot who survived was flying in March 2024.&nbsp; On this particular day, the plane’s rotation rate was 6.5°/sec, causing it to go into a deep stall soon after takeoff, the Commission report said. Essentially, the plane was not flying fast enough down the runway to take off safely.&nbsp; It is not yet clear whether excess weight, unsecured luggage, wrong centre of gravity were also factors, but relying on a faulty speedchart for the given takeoff weight, the captain flying pulled back on the yoke before the plane had reached takeoff speed and at a pitch angle that was too steep. The investigation report says the plane then went into a deep stall and started banking right with the stick shaking. At this point, the flight officer on the right hand seat is heard on the cockpit voice recorder saying: “Whoa, whoa, whoa. Sir, Sir, Sir…” It then banked left before the pilot flying turned the plane sharply to the right again in an evasive action to avoid the parking aprons of the international and domestic terminals. Had he not done so, there would have been a disaster of a much greater magnitude at Kathmandu airport that day. The plane scraped the runway with its right wingtip, collided with a container having helicopter spare parts, and plunged into a gully east of the runway, exploding in a fireball. The investigation also noted that the impact forces seemed to be survivable for some occupants. The fire trucks took unnecessarily long to reach the site even though it was inside the airport perimeter. The absence of an ICAO-standard runway strip, inadequate rescue drills, lack of training, and a blocked emergency service gate leading to the crash site were cited as other factors. &nbsp;&nbsp; <h2>Timestamp of a Disaster</h2>  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110724_39cdd04693994ce6e55a5b302905c0fa4884fe85bed21ff0779bb1439f3a5725.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20250731110724_39cdd04693994ce6e55a5b302905c0fa4884fe85bed21ff0779bb1439f3a5725" data-rendition-name="original" width="778" height="826" loading="lazy" alt="Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy NT"> </figure>  11:10:34 - The Saurya Airlines CRJ200 on the takeoff roll from runway 02. It had a takeoff weight of about 18,300kg, but the pilot’s speedcard had a previously undetected mistake about the minimum takeoff speed. 11:10:55 -The plane with tail number 9N-AME goes into deep stall soon after takeoff because it does not have enough speed to lift its weight. The plane also has an abnormally steep nose-up attitude.&nbsp; 11:11:03 - Without enough speed to generate lift, the plane banks right, then left and right again in CCTV photos taken from the domestic apron (below). If it had not banked right, it could have hit the aprons and terminal buildings. Seen parked is Saurya’s other CRJ200 with tail number 9N-ANM.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110732_608132f7225c649125cca2691dd6a6bf930984c5b359e888d7ad9e5eacce3afd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20250731110732_608132f7225c649125cca2691dd6a6bf930984c5b359e888d7ad9e5eacce3afd" data-rendition-name="original" width="770" height="555" loading="lazy" alt="Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy NT"> </figure>  11:11:08 - The plane scrapes the runway with its right wingtip, and falls into the gully. The captain is thrown off the left side of the cockpit and survives. 11:11:15: Plane explodes in a fireball inside the airport perimeter. Firefighters take time to reach the site because of lack of access road and a blocked gate. Read the full investigation report <a href="https://www.tourism.gov.np/files/9N-AME%20AIC%20Final%20Report.pdf">here</a>.

Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy

American artist Peter Makela was in Nepal in 2022 on a Fulbright scholarship when he experienced the Matya festival in Patan in which devotees made the rounds of the city’s shrines.&nbsp;
He joined the procession, walking through 2,600 stupa and 140 bahal of the town. That immersion left a lasting impression.
As part of Gallery Mcube’s international residency program in Patan, he put his inspiration to canvas in the exhibition Yala Yatra: Walking, Working, Worshipping. The exhibition also coincides with this month’s Matya festival.&nbsp;
Makela has visited Nepal often in the past 11 years but he mostly stayed in and spent his time around Boudha. “This time I stayed in Patan, put the sites I wanted to visit on my map, and off I went,” he tells us. “Each of my artwork is inspired by the stupas and shrines in Patan that I visited.”
The stupa and Ganesh are recurring motifs in his watercolours, and the elephant gods are located in chaityas — reflecting the interplay and blending of the Hindu and Buddhist faiths in Kathmandu Valley.&nbsp;
The stupas and Ganesh are painted in vivid red, yellow, blue and green against abstract backgrounds meant to represent the sky.
“I use the sky as a backdrop because the sky has no border,” says Makela. “The four colours represent the four elements, the different Buddha families and also lights bouncing off of a rainbow.”
The use of just four colours for all the artwork stands out, and combined with the absence of heavy canvases, frames or stands render Makela’s art striking in its simplicity.&nbsp;
The Ganesh is always holding something and the art also portrays the elephant god’s sacred vehicle, the mouse.
While his vibrant stupas and Ganesh reflect the tangibility of Patan’s tradition and heritage, it is as if the backdrops with their shades of grey and red and yellow capture the soul of the city’s shrines.
“If you look closely, there is a sense of form and formlessness at the same time,” he says.&nbsp;
Makela walked 108 kora around the shrines during his exploration of the town, and in the process developed a spiritual connection with Patan’s heritage and traditions.&nbsp;
The exhibition connects with visitors on a deeper, more spiritual, level as well. And with it, they feel a sense of pride as well as the need to urgently preserve Patan’s heritage for future generations.
“Peter’s inclination and approach towards Nepali art and culture is fascinating, and it reflects in his work,” says Mcube curator Manish Lal Shrestha, whose international artist residency program promotes Nepal’s cultural heritage. &nbsp;&nbsp;
Yala Yatra: Walking, Working, Worshipping
1-5 August&nbsp;
10AM-7PM
Gallery Mcube, Patan