During <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepals-constitution-3-years-later">the Constitution </a>drafting process that took nearly ten years, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/faith-in-tolerance?form=MG0AV3">Nepal’s various ethnicities and religions </a>tried to define their status vis-a-vis the state. They laid down their demands, they struggled, and then forged compacts. When the Constitution was finally promulgated in 2015, these agreements between individual groups and the state were given a rough roadmap. However, the new statute could not address the divisions between various communities and ethnicities. Despite its <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/decoding-diversity?fbclid=IwAR3P0GygTCQ7HE-LaaVOhmKSyUDLlIrR2l9VzXKwCFJ8Em7YFHSAOiiXqQE">diversity</a>, Nepal does not have a history of serious sectarian, religious or <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-s-cycles-of-revolution">communal conflict</a>. The Constitution’s preamble accepts pluralism and tolerance. Every group is guaranteed the right to demonstrate its faith as long as it does not infringe on the right of another group. Authoritarianism and democracy are two opposing poles of any political system. They are governed differently, and their internal structures are disparate. Authoritarian systems exist only if the status quo is maintained, while democracies are always in dynamic flux. This is why democracies cannot always guarantee stability, and there will be voices using the very freedoms the system guarantees them to agitate for a dictatorial regime. This can seem contradictory, but in Nepal’s present context they are complementary. The evolution of Nepali society has seen insurgency, interaction and intermingling, and democracy has allowed tolerance of different belief systems.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250418100452_b50e2b40e20769f7c27c4e30b25ccabb369c57b5f5d30b92a67c6fbf5e9daa2c.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20250418100452_b50e2b40e20769f7c27c4e30b25ccabb369c57b5f5d30b92a67c6fbf5e9daa2c" data-rendition-name="original" width="1280" height="720" loading="lazy" alt="The sociology of social unrest"> </figure>  In the past, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/the-ghost-of-monarchy-returns-to-haunt-nepal">the monarchy</a> tried but could not fully address the cultural aspirations of the country’s ethnicities. During the Panchayat, the geopolitical need of the time was to strengthen national unity and identity through a unitary state. Today’s<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/republicans-and-royalists-on-nepal-s-streets"> royalists </a>are using the current political disarray and public dissatisfaction to evoke nostalgia for strongman rule. In politics, there can be smoke even without a fire. The ex-king’s project is to terminate the pluralism ensured by this hard-won Constitution. There are indications that reactionaries are trying to fish in troubled waters. In the past four years, Birganj has started marking Hanuman Jayanti in honour of the monkey god of the Ramayana, and it has always been accompanied by tension with adherents of other faiths. Last week, violence flared again during the procession, and the city was shut down with a curfew for two days. Although restrictions have now been lifted, the city is still licking its wounds.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250418100456_bf07e5702dcae169ea57b72f7284eac805fa4d7d8dc6f5d6ccd01835bc873463.jpg" data-media-id="editor_7" data-image-id="20250418100456_bf07e5702dcae169ea57b72f7284eac805fa4d7d8dc6f5d6ccd01835bc873463" data-rendition-name="original" width="1280" height="720" loading="lazy" alt="The sociology of social unrest"> </figure>  Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-s-deja-vu-on-black-friday">Nepal’s déjà vu on Black Friday</a>, Sonia Awale A religious procession has to be sensitive to the neighbourhood it is moving through, it cannot provoke those from other communities who live there. The administration is responsible to ensure that things do not get out of hand. This was obviously not done. There should have been strict guidelines about the route of the procession, a ban on openly carrying weapons of any kind, and against provocative slogans directed at another religious group. These rules should have been pre-agreed and strictly enforced. Another factor that poured oil on the fire was live video reporting on social media of the procession that magnified the agenda of the organisers. Such ‘reporting’ by ‘journalists’ sensationalised the violence and helped spread it with fake videos, disinformation and hate speech. Sharing such content also spurs copycat violence and prevents resolution. There are signs various groups are trying to <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/volatile-mix-of-politics-and-religion">mix politics with religion</a> and with extremist rhetoric. There should be forceful and immediate legal action against such elements to nip the unrest in the bud. Local problems need <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/global-crisis-local-solutions">local solutions</a>. Outside interference may complicate attempts to <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/protecting-nepals-forests-from-fires">extinguish the fire</a>. The silent majority of citizens do not want violence and turmoil, they want peace and reconciliation. Any political force that tries to exploit the Birganj unrest to further its own narrow interest elsewhere will ultimately reap the whirlwind. Chandrakishore is a Birganj-based political commentator who writes this monthly column BORDERLINES in Nepali Times. @kishore_chandra

Chandra Kishore

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The sociology of social unrest

The most emblematic case from Nepal’s armed conflict is of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/news/she-would-have-been-33-this-year" target="_blank">Maina Sunar</a>, but it quietly slipped away from the Supreme Court docket last week.&nbsp; On 23 May the presiding judges said they could not hear the case because of a conflict of interest. It has been three years since the Supreme Court has continuously adjourned <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=15409" target="_blank">Maina Sunar</a>’s case hearings.&nbsp; Contrast this to <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/news/who-is-resham-chaudhary" target="_blank">Resham Chaudhary</a>, whose crime occurred 11 years after <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/thebrief/2015/02/17/remembering-maina/" target="_blank">Sunar</a> was killed in 2004. His case was processed by the District Court, High Court, Supreme Court and he was released from prison on a presidential pardon.&nbsp; Maina Sunar and Resham Chaudhary both involve criminal cases against a backdrop of political armed struggle, and involve the security forces. They raise similar legal questions such as: What degree of murder was committed? Who were the commanders that ordered them, what was their responsibility?&nbsp; &nbsp;Read Also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/who-is-resham-chaudhary">Who is Resham Chaudhary...</a>, Shristi Karki One marked difference in the cases is that in Maina Sunar’s case the <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/blogs/thebrief/2013/02/16/still-waiting/" target="_blank">perpetrator was the Nepal Army</a>, whereas in Resham Chaudhary’s case members of the security forces were victims. The contrast of how these two cases moved through the courts exposes some bigger concerns in procedures followed and decisions made in criminal trials in Nepal.&nbsp; There has been a consistent stream of analysis that pins the delays in cases processing through the court system to human resource deficit. particularly the failure to appoint judges. This is only one part of the problem. &nbsp; Cases are listed for hearing by the court’s administrative staff. Each week all courts produce a list of cases that will appear before the judges called the ‘Weekly Cause List’.&nbsp; For example, the Supreme Court releases a list of around 200 cases to be presented before judges that week. The cases are listed in order of priority meaning that realistically only the first 90 cases have a chance of being heard that week. The rest are adjourned. These cases need not be listed in the next week’s cause list but rather are likely to be listed after at least a month.&nbsp; Court administrative staff, as opposed to judges, use their discretion to sequence cases on the weekly cause list. The Chief Justice and administrative heads of the courts supervise the weekly lists and can change the order of cases.&nbsp; Whilst there are laws providing guidance on how to prioritise cases on the list such as processing cases affecting women, children, prisoners and elderly quickly, it is largely discretionary. Decision making remains mostly opaque at all levels.&nbsp; Moreover, it is common understanding amongst lawyers that this lack of transparency in drawing up cause lists opens up room for undue political influence and corruption by administrative staff in either moving up cases or pushing them down the list. Cases can be essentially buried through this function of procedural decision making by administrators.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20230603130652_2a8fb07731cbdd5da02da1cb329ea210e014973b09efd3c1e825147a26c179b2.jpg" data-media-id="editor_6" data-image-id="20230603130652_2a8fb07731cbdd5da02da1cb329ea210e014973b09efd3c1e825147a26c179b2" data-rendition-name="original" width="400" height="406" loading="lazy" alt="Maina Sunwar"> <figcaption>Maina Sunar, who was killed in detention at Nepal Army barracks in 2004.</figcaption> </figure>  Maina Sunar’s case has been in the courts since 2007. The military has challenged the legitimacy of civilian courts to hear this case after it conducted its own court martial. This petition has lingered at the Supreme Court which in turn has adjourned this hearing five times since 2019. The reason being that the case was listed too far down the order in the cause list.&nbsp; &nbsp;In contrast, Resham Chaudhary’s case was processed in about six years. The speed at which the two cases have moved through the courts raises questions about what legal and non-legal factors affected the court administrator’s decision-making in listing these cases.&nbsp; In Maina Sunar’s case decision, the Patan High Court and Kavre District Court established that <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=941" target="_blank">military personnel Amit Pun and Sunil Adhikari under the command of Bobby Khatri</a> abducted, tortured, killed and disappeared 15 year old Maina inside the Panchkhal barracks.&nbsp; The judges acknowledge the torture that led to the death of Sunar is a violation of international human rights law deserving of a life sentence. However, in a remarkable display of sympathy towards the military, the judges state that a life sentence would be excessive for the perpetrators who were working under extraordinary pressures of the armed conflict.&nbsp; The life sentence was lowered to five years of imprisonment by both courts, the same punishment for the commanding officer Bobby Khatri and his subordinate officers. International human rights law is clear on its absolute prohibition against torture under all circumstance and stipulates the duty of the state to safeguard children during an armed conflict.&nbsp; A sentence mitigation, after citing Nepal’s obligation to follow these laws in the judgment, is a baffling leap in legal logic. No military personnel has yet served this sentence.&nbsp; High Courts in Nepal should be persuaded (as opposed to bound) by previous rulings in similar cases as a matter of legal principle. It is interesting that the political consideration that mitigated sentences for <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/from-nepali-press/mother-fights-for-justice-Devi-Sunar,2837" target="_blank">military personnel in Maina Sunar’s case</a> are summarily dismissed in Resham Chaudhary’s case judgment.&nbsp; After all, the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/tikapur-s-protracted-trauma" target="_blank">2015 killings in Tikapur</a>, for which Resham Chaudhary was handed a life sentence, is termed a political struggle (as opposed to a criminal act) by the Tharu community. The judges are within their rights to declare an incident a criminal act as opposed to a political act.&nbsp; However, judges either needed to examine legal parameters of political armed struggle vis-a-vis existing criteria under international laws such as whether the group has a structure, organisation or military command. Or, they needed to propose a set of legal criteria for political acts that fit the Nepali context which can be used for subsequent cases before the court. This legal engagement to separate a criminal act from a political act is significantly underdeveloped in Resham Chaudhary’s case judgment.&nbsp; The legal value of the Maina Sunar and Resham Chaudhary case was immense. They presented an opportunity for Nepal’s Supreme Court to deliberate and set legal standards on some pertinent legal questions relating to political movements that would assist future cases.&nbsp; These include questions like separating sporadic criminal uprisings from political violence, establishing the gravity of death by torture, defining the parameters of command responsibility in security forces and political groups amongst others.&nbsp; However as Maina Sunar’s case stalls and Resham Chaudhary’s presidential pardon potentially lifts the Supreme Court’s obligation to issue a full length decision, the engagement with legal elements of justice remain compromised.&nbsp; Aastha Dahal is a Kathmandu-based lawyer with a PhD in criminology from the University of Cambridge.

Comparing Maina Sunar and Resham Chaudhary cases

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022111410114/637205179c7e80680e0b2899jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="451"/><figcaption>Photo: MITHILA DAINIK</figcaption></figure>A group of activists has strongly condemned Infrastructure and Transport Minister Renu Yadav’s incendiary remarks at a recent political event in Rautahat where she openly threatened opponents with targeted killing.During her 19 January speech, in video clips available publicly, Yadav warned a repeat of <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=13404#.YeutGS2B2CQ" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">the 2007 Gaur Massacre</a> targeting Chandra Kant Raut Chair of the Janamat Party, which has launched a Farmers’ Movement in Tarai and declared to boycott federal and provincial ministers. It also tried to obstruct her entry into Gaur on Wednesday.‘We are clear that a person who cannot hold the dignity of a minister’s position, demonstrates criminal mindset, and publicly concedes to acts of murder, is ineligible to retain any position of public responsibility,’ says the appeal released on Friday.During the same speech, Minister Yadav of the Janata Samajbadi also publicly acknowledged her party’s involvement in the massacre even as the perpetrators who <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=13377#.YeutFS2B2CQ" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">brutally killed 28 Maoist cadres</a> and injured 40 more remain outside the purview of law, and impunity rages on in the country.The 2007 mass killing was conducted by the then Madheshi People’s Rights Forum who at the time was organising simultaneous rallies at the same site in Gaur as Maoists. The resulting clash escalated and led to the mass killings, concluded the United Nations Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, Nepal report.Signatories of the appeal include Kedar Narsingh KC, Charan Prasai, Ganesh Kumar Mandal, Sushil Pyakurel, Taranath Dahal, Indra Prasad Aryal, Mahamunishwar Acharya and Kanak Mani Dixit and have demanded that <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/polls-in-the-time-of-pandemic/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Prime Minister Deuba</a> immediately relieve Minister Yadav of her post and start legal proceedings against her.‘The fact that a sitting minister can threaten target killings, and also proudly take ownership of a massacre, is the result of the unchecked lack of accountability in the country,’ further adds the appeal, which also laments the government’s failure to show interest or concern three full days after the incident.Former tourism minister and now the UML secretary <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/unusual-appointment-extraordinary-tasks/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Yogesh Bhattarai</a> has also come out strongly against Yadav via his Twitter and has demanded action against her remarks.He wrote: “Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba should either relieve Renu Yadav who has instigated violence and delivered a scathing speech against the Constitution or declare that Nepali Congress justifies violence in polities. There is no other way.”Even Nepali Congress General Secretary Bishwo Prakash Sharma has also recommended removal of Yadav to PM Deuba.

Nepal minister threatens targeted killings

As this report is uploaded, the latest results in Nepal’s election show that the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) is headed for an even bigger sweep than most had predicted.
The RSP was leading by large margins in 49 of 165 constituencies, &nbsp;with the UML, NC and NCP trailing far behind. Prominent political figures from the old parties like K P Oli, Minwndra Prasad Rijal, Ishwar Pokhrel, Bishnu Prasad Poudel, Bimalendra Nidhi all seem headed for defeat.
It does look like the RSP’s bell election symbol is ringing right across Nepal — from cities to the remotest districts in the mountains and plains. The party’s blue colour is sweeping the land.
The Nepali people seem to have sent a clear message that they were throughly dissatisfied with the chronic failure of the three main parties to work in the national interest to create jobs and deliver development. It was also an expression of lingering outrage over the the 8 September massacre outside Parliament. &nbsp;
It now looks almost certain that Balendra Shah will get to be Nepal’s next, and youngest, prime minister. Hopefully he will be leading a cabinet of competent and honest technocrats. It remains to seen how the power equation between Shah and the RSP’s leader, Rabi Lamichhane will play out.
Lamichhane is out of jail on bail for fraud cases which he has called political vendetta by the previous regime. Both he and Shah are charismatic and ambitious. Their working relationship will determine Nepal's political stability and whether it can avoid the political cronyism of the past.
This election was not just about casting votes. It was about standing up to principles and a value system, and respecting the hopes and aspirations of Nepal’s youth. It to push for transparent government and against impunity — including for the gunning down of young Nepalis in cold blood.
<div class="embed-block"><iframe src="https://election-geo-dashboard.pages.dev/" width="100%" height="600" frameborder="0"> </iframe>Live election results as winners of candidates are announced.</div>
CAN DO MAN
Shah got mixed reviews as mayor. He was impulsive and ad hoc, but most people inKathmandu and beyond liked his can-do attitude and unconventional style which stood in sharp contract to the legacy leaders. Over his three year mayorship he showed more maturity and planning capacity.&nbsp;
But he always ran headlong into opposition from the federal government over his urban planning and other initiatives to make Kathmandu more liveable. Coming from a civil and structural engineering background, he was involved in building low-cost housing after the 2015 earthquake.
But his public persona is more tied to his irreverent rap lyrics that stood up for the marginalised underprivileged in society, while exposing the high-handedness and apathy of the state. But this also exposed contradictions because he also used his own municipal guards to beat and chase away street vendors and squatters.
But there is no doubt that a combination of the sharp messaging in his rap videos amplified by the algorithms of social media ignited Nepal’s youth to rise up. It was more about optics and emotion than policy and strategy.
He studied Kathmandu district for five years, visiting experts in every field before announcing his independent candidacy for mayor in 2022. Many like me in his own constitunecy did not know who he was and where he came from.
He is a year younger than my architect son, and I saw in him a reflection of my own son’s commitment to serving the nation. I voted for him to be mayor despite his sometimes erratic behaviour, which could be attributed to his youth.
The best sign of his strategic planning, which unsettled septuagenarian and octogenarian politicians, is the he did not grab the first easy option of becoming prime minister in September when GenZ activists offered him the post.&nbsp;
Joining RSP was a masterstroke, as was his challenge to Oli in Jhapa to project national branding. He needed a party platform and Lamichhane needed a popular prime ministerial persona since he himself could not hold the post.
Shah has shown the capacity to take risks when he believes the value justifies the action for the country. Now, he will have to show more strategic thinking on a national scale, as well as understand the delicate geopolitics of Nepal.&nbsp;
He must rise above the kind of crude social media posts that earned him followers on X, but did nothing to erase his erratic and impulsive image.&nbsp;
Some assume that behind his trademark RayBan shades is a closet dictator, and his past remarks about Hitler are still up on social media. He has in the past shown impatience with criticism, unleashing supporters on social media to troll detractors.&nbsp;
Even so, the public seems willing to place their hope on an educated young man with integrity and a proven record for planning at the helm. By tomorrow it will be clear whether the hope Nepalis have held has been fulfilled, and the coming years will show if the RSP will lead Nepalis to a better future.
The voters seem to have shown the door even to the NC despite the fact that under Gagan Thapa, the party had turned a new leaf. A strong government under Prime Minister Balendra Shah heading a carefully selected cabinet and a strong opposition of the NC, UML and other parties for check and balance may be just what we need for a stable Nepal.&nbsp;
Nepalis have collectively always shown maturity in elections. This time they have given a resounding endorsement for integrity and for good governance.

Bells ring all over Nepal

Nepali Congress (NC) President Gagan Thapa's candidacy in Sarlahi-4 has thrust this Madhes constituency into rare national focus. If Thapa wins and the NC emerges as the largest party, Sarlahi-4 will send Nepal's next prime minister to Parliament. But if he does not, Nepal’s grand old party will face the next years in the opposition to fight another day. There is a troubling paradox in Sarlahi-4 where the district bordering the Indian state of Bihar has been a battleground for national politicians with fierce electoral competition, all while remaining one of the region's most underserved and underdeveloped constituencies.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485.png" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485" data-rendition-name="original" width="1802" height="1276" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: MADHES PAHARA MEDIA</figcaption> </figure>  Ever since Mahant Thakur split from NC in 2008 to form the Tarai Madhes Loktantrik Party, the district has seen rotating political alliances and fragmented votes. Yet, despite 18 years of candidates promising change irrigation schemes remain incomplete, market access for farmers has not improved, unemployment is high.&nbsp; On election day, voters here marked their ballots with fingers stained by dye from the Holi festival the day before. The road leading to Barathawa Bazar was deserted for the most part, except for some youth riding in motorcycles. This is where the high-profile contest between Gagan Thapa and RSP nominee Amresh Singh is being staged. Among the other aspirants is 27-year-old UML candidate Amnish Yadav, the son of former MP Shiv Pujan Yadav. The Yadavs are a political family with considerable caste influence in the constituency. In 2022 Yadav’s daughter Madhumala Yadav received over 14,000 votes here, ranking third overall. Yadav was voted MP from the Maoist party, but defected to the UML this time. His other son is the chair of Sarlahi’s Ramnagar Rural Municipality. Sarhali-4 has 121,012 voters, and the Yadav is banking on the 27,000-strong Yadav vote bank. Sarlahi-4 voter Avishek Sah told us he wanted his vote to go to a young nominee and not someone who has been MP thrice already, like Amresh Singh. &nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10" data-rendition-name="original" width="1200" height="1600" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  To make local loyalties even more complicated, Amnish Yadav’s uncle, Harinder Yadav is an active NC member and walked side by side with Gagan Thapa during his door-to-door campaigns.&nbsp; The NC is betting on Thapa getting over 60% of the total votes. Amresh Singh’s tally could be limited to 10,000 votes — that too because of the nationwide RSP wave, and the popularity of its prime ministerial hopeful Balendra (Balen) Shah. “Amresh Singh lost his appeal when he played victim after he was denied a ticket by the NC in 2022,” Harinder Yadav says. Voters we spoke to here agreed with this assessment that Singh did not do much for the district once he got elected in the past, and being a part of the RSP seems to be his biggest asset. “The only reason I voted for Amresh Singh is because Balen is in RSP,” local voter Mahendra Gupta from Barathawa. &nbsp;“This is his last chance to return the people’s trust.”&nbsp; Gupta is aware of the institutional presence of the NC here. The party received the most votes in 2022 local elections, adding that the candidacy of someone as high-profile as Thapa is a positive sign for Sarlahi-4.&nbsp; Other voters like Ruby Gupta are rooting for both the NC and the RSP. “I will vote for Gagan and for Balen,” she says, adding that her FPTP vote will go to Thapa while her PR ballot would be for the RSP. RSP supporters are confident that their candidate will win big because even though many voters may not have openly voiced their support they still voted for the party and candidate. The Balen Wave was not limited to RSP voters, but also to UML candidate Yadav, who said in a gathering that he will be “the voters Balen” if they elect him. He touted his party’s track record in government, and largely campaigned on administrative efficiency, infrastructural expansion, and local service delivery. Amresh Singh ran on the RSP’s anti-establishment brand, promising to fight corruption, challenge traditional party politics, improve basic services such as education, health, jobs, and infrastructure, while pushing for stronger representation and development for Madhes.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="1200" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo:AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  Singh’s rivalry with his NC competitor goes beyond the ballot— he allegedly blames Thapa for being denied the NC ticket in 2022, which led him to win the election from Sarlahi-4 as an independent. &nbsp; For his part, Gagan Thapa focused on a more pragmatic development agenda that includes upgrading roads and irrigation, improving schools and hospitals, supporting farmers, and creating employment opportunities with improved governance at the centre. He also promised to build an engineering college in the constituency.&nbsp; Thapa also promoted his own anti-establishment image within the NC, repeatedly reminding voters on the campaign trail that he represents the aspirations of the youth.&nbsp; On Thursday, as voting progressed, there were violent disruptions in two centres where voting was briefly halted. But Sarlahi district police spokesperson Saroj Rai told Nepali Times that there were no major problems. Police in collaboration with the Nepal Army sent the ballot papers to the district’s counting stations, where the votes are expected to be tallied through the night and the winner announced Friday morning.

Sarlahi-4 nervously watches ballot count

Nepal conducted its post-GenZ movement early election on Thursday in a peaceful and orderly manner, although turnout was below average in most districts. In fact, some constituencies saw voters reject the election, including in Arghakhanchi and Mustang.&nbsp; Preparation for the polls had to be done hurriedly after the September protests, with little time for political parties to work on their manifestos and campaign. But the election did push most parties to field younger, fresher and untainted candidates. This was more a <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/old-vs-new-vs-new">personality-driven election for the next prime minister</a> than a traditional parliamentary poll. The three main parties had pre-emptively announced their prime ministerial candidates although the chief executive is supposed to be decided by the largest party in the House.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2026030514034_00809e41288d8dd46d1c8915e8e39fba09892049cfda37ba347e4b23989e94c0.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="2026030514034_00809e41288d8dd46d1c8915e8e39fba09892049cfda37ba347e4b23989e94c0" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1366" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal elections"> <figcaption>Balendra Shah</figcaption> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2026030514034_d288f2cbe05c9c1376e315ea4f24528c5ee63766c978657aee8848eb9f87f4ea.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="2026030514034_d288f2cbe05c9c1376e315ea4f24528c5ee63766c978657aee8848eb9f87f4ea" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="1066" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal elections"> <figcaption>Gagan Thapa</figcaption> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2026030514034_3e2c1c4595b3aa3a4b0c6ca80aa6243e7c5c6e5d232c9295a380c565f85bd233.jpg" data-media-id="editor_3" data-image-id="2026030514034_3e2c1c4595b3aa3a4b0c6ca80aa6243e7c5c6e5d232c9295a380c565f85bd233" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1365" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal elections"> <figcaption>K P Oli</figcaption> </figure>  Going by the noise on social media sites, there seemed to be overwhelming support for the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) and its prime ministerial hopeful, former Kathmandu mayor <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/political-rap">Balendra Shah</a>. Standing against him in his home turf was K P Oli, of the UML who was forced to resign after the 9 September protests. Although the UML was fielding a tried and tested leader, the Nepali Congress (NC) has tried to carry forward the GenZ aspiration for change by putting forward its new party leader Gagan Thapa as its prime ministerial candidate. The lower-than-average turnout appears to have been driven by several factors: a public that is apathetic towards the older parties but is not yet convinced by the capability of the new. Limited time campaigning, and the over-idealistic manifestos of the parties does not seem to have fired up the electorate.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2026030514038_50394032b053d433ed039aeb6d2c00a491d2a56b48a67e55e27fbffe7e4c7fe4.jpg" data-media-id="editor_5" data-image-id="2026030514038_50394032b053d433ed039aeb6d2c00a491d2a56b48a67e55e27fbffe7e4c7fe4" data-rendition-name="original" width="1280" height="854" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal elections"> <figcaption>Photos: ADITYA KHARE</figcaption> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2026030514038_84677be963084003c9a3d3fec0b8f95ab9b9db08c160f08c82aa03b02cb81260.jpg" data-media-id="editor_6" data-image-id="2026030514038_84677be963084003c9a3d3fec0b8f95ab9b9db08c160f08c82aa03b02cb81260" data-rendition-name="original" width="1280" height="854" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal elections"> </figure>  The low turnout is also a reflection of massive outmigration from rural districts, and the requirement that voters had to go to their own home constituencies to vote. And since the Election Commission could not organised ballot by mail or online voting, most of the estimated 4 million voters abroad also could not cast their ballots. To be sure, Nepalis abroad do represent an anti-incumbent vote bloc, and they have influenced families and friends back home through social media. The trend towards RSP and younger candidates is therefore a rejection of the old, and a protest vote against the legacy parties rather than full support for the new ones. Many migrants who were coming back to vote were also stuck in West Asia after the war broke out between Iran and Israel-US. Airlines have had to make drastic rerouting plans, and at least 21,000 flights have been cancelled. The conflict will affect petroleum imports including LPG and aviation fuel, if it continues any longer. Although our reliance on fossil fuels is declining, thanks to the increased electrification of transport and cooking, the shortage might be the first crisis for the new government of Nepal to tackle.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2026030514038_986438337f2af271ab33d267560b8a25691a72292aae074488dc8e77f27cf9c1.jpg" data-media-id="editor_7" data-image-id="2026030514038_986438337f2af271ab33d267560b8a25691a72292aae074488dc8e77f27cf9c1" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1536" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal elections"> <figcaption>Polling in Sangjya. Photo: SHRISTI KARKI</figcaption> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2026030514038_dd2624707dae59f3b32fdebb402a3edfbfe99a4031f4f43dd4522ef7c58bfab0.jpg" data-media-id="editor_8" data-image-id="2026030514038_dd2624707dae59f3b32fdebb402a3edfbfe99a4031f4f43dd4522ef7c58bfab0" data-rendition-name="original" width="1523" height="2030" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal elections"> <figcaption>Photo: SUDIKSHA TULADHAR</figcaption> </figure>  There were 18.9 million registered voters nationwide, and the 60% turnout this time follows a declining trend, possibly making it the lowest in Nepal's polling history. In the first federal election in 2017, the turnout was an impressive 67%, which dipped to 61% in the 2022 election, although it was slightly higher in the municipal election. The EC has started counting the votes on Thursday evening and hopes to have the winners of the FPTP candidates out within 24 hours, however the tallies of the Proportional Representation ballots for the parties may take up to a week.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2026030514034_8ff38b016d3cb75f27343ebe5d826f9201bfefffb6147dcbb0c415071ceb472d.jpg" data-media-id="editor_9" data-image-id="2026030514034_8ff38b016d3cb75f27343ebe5d826f9201bfefffb6147dcbb0c415071ceb472d" data-rendition-name="original" width="1616" height="1080" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal elections"> <figcaption>Ballot boxes being collected. Photos: AMIT MACHAMASI</figcaption> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2026030514034_6e6f6a792db2790533b7ef261e51dbdc07745ee96b80eaa8edc5abab4c7cfd21.jpg" data-media-id="editor_10" data-image-id="2026030514034_6e6f6a792db2790533b7ef261e51dbdc07745ee96b80eaa8edc5abab4c7cfd21" data-rendition-name="original" width="1616" height="1080" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal elections"> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2026030514034_75951a6583c17a741e3f9bd1abb796bbefed335cb6e694e5cddf519bfd0b9ed4.jpg" data-media-id="editor_11" data-image-id="2026030514034_75951a6583c17a741e3f9bd1abb796bbefed335cb6e694e5cddf519bfd0b9ed4" data-rendition-name="original" width="1616" height="1080" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal elections"> </figure>  Many have praised the interim prime minister installed six months ago by the GenZ movement, former chief justice <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/mission-nearly-accomplished">Sushila Karki</a> for conducting the polls on time as promised—a task that looked impossible until a few months ago, especially considering how Sri Lanka and Bangladesh suspended their electoral processes for a long time following their own youth uprisings. Balen Shah also took to his social media to commend Karki. He wrote: 'हजुरको नेतृत्वमा आज लोकतन्त्रले जितेको छ । <a href="https://www.facebook.com/hashtag/%E0%A4%86%E0%A4%AE%E0%A4%BE?__eep__=6&amp;__cft__[0]=AZYlGAeGzdXOS93cs8uOYTfW2l5YtXypnOpQOwFwdzWQQ2X_sLcqe_tqk518ULo-ftJnT5sCeT83L5zqMhzL09YgqxYLxDTzkHRSXiEtegetmKjz0ZbMz54cS2KFOKvPtqdHCZn4J6N0i4IvRDSXgHcCdLLd3kQYflb-Popks3zpA3O9Pqd4_Yh9efVCtMUPumJdN0l-y32bQLREPIMYm_mnJDYHbgoUy9iRUGMu1IOGHQ&amp;__tn__=*NK-y-R" target="_blank">#आमा</a>' (Democracy has won under your leadership. #mother). After casting her vote from Kathmandu on Thursday, Karki said: “I have fulfilled my responsibility towards the nation, let us hope the people’s wish for stability and prosperity will be fulfilled by the new elected government.”

Nepal votes with below average turnout

After Thursday’s election, Nepalis are in a wait-and-watch mode. The Election Commission says counting ballot papers will be expedited this time, and the results for the First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) will start being declared within days. In 2022, it took three weeks for the final results to be tallied.&nbsp;
But winning an election is only half the challenge for the parties, forming a government under parliamentary politics is like a complicated mathematical equation.&nbsp;
In 2022, the Nepali Congress (NC) emerged as the biggest party, winning 89 seats. But the UML with 78 seats and the Maoists with 32 formed a minority government. In fact, Sher Bahadur Deuba did not become PM then despite leading the biggest party in Parliament.
This time, there is an unmistakeable Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) wave led by its prime ministerial candidate, Balendra Shah. Besides his own popularity, Shah represents change which most Nepalis are clamouring for after decades of corrupt and feckless coalitions that did not deliver.&nbsp;
The past months of campaigning has seen massive youth engagement on social media through memes, AI clips, and viral images. Digital content that appeals to emotion rather than policy debate between candidates shape electoral outcomes in Nepal and elsewhere. &nbsp;
Shah represents GenZ aspirations, and was their candidate for prime minister. It was only when he declined that Sushila Karki was nominated. None of the political parties in the recent past -- new, old, or revolutionary — have won enough seats to go it alone.&nbsp;
The most recent majority government was formed by the short-lived Communist Party of Nepal after the UML-Maoist merger in 2022. But that rare two-thirds majority collapsed after a power struggle between K P Oli and Pushpa Kamal Dahal. The only party to have won a majority was the NC in the 1991 and 1999 elections. But it is near impossible for it to repeat this success now, even with Gagan Thapa's rebranding of the party.&nbsp;
We have compiled these possible scenarios for election outcome in order of likelihood:
RSP gets a majority
RSP hits the magic 138 to form a government entirely on its own. Balendra Shah wins Jhapa-5, and becomes the new prime minister at 35, the youngest ever to hold the office in Nepal. But danger lurks: there could be a personality clash between Shah and Lamichhane who are both equally ambitious. History could repeat itself.&nbsp;
RSP wins but does not get a majority
RSP is likely to sweep the most votes, but what if it does not secure enough seats for a majority? It would need a coalition partner and Nepali Communist Party (NCP) under Pushpa Kamal Dahal could fit the bill, but only if it has the numbers. The RSP is not likely to team up with the UML or NC.
The NCP is relatively untainted by the 8 September events, and also has former UML defectors like Madhav Kumar Nepal and Bhim Rawal who could bag their rural vote banks. After all, there are no permanent foes in politics. If the royalist RPP and Tarai-based Janata Samajwadi have enough seats, those could be options for the RSP. &nbsp;
NC is second
The NC under the new leadership of Gagan Thapa could become the second biggest force and form a government with RSP in a power-sharing deal with Shah. This would be the most stable scenario since the RSP and NC have competent and idealistic young technocrats. Thapa himself embodies a strong combination of both old and new politics to navigate the system for more efficient government. But then Thapa and the RSP's Rabi Lamichhane do not get along.
NC and NCP form a majority
If the NC becomes the largest party but not by a big margin, it could join up with the NCP and Ujyalo. Teaming up with the UML would likely face backlash with the party and outside. If Gagan Thapa becomes prime minister he will face internal pressure from both Deuba loyalists. Same old story.
Minority coalition of NC, UML and NCP
RSP becomes the first party but does not get a majority, paving the way for the three legacy parties to cobble together a minority government. While this is possible in Nepal’s parliamentary system, such a scenario is likely to lead to more instability and dissatisfaction among young Nepalis demanding change, and even trigger street unrest. &nbsp;