<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114101144/63720df49c7e80680e0b78edjpeg.jpg" alt="" width="960" height="640"/><figcaption>Photo: NEPALI TIMES ARCHIVE</figcaption></figure>“The paradox is this: if economic rationality tells us that the next century will be the age of global integration of the world’s economies, cultural ‘irrationality’ steps in to inform us that it will also be the century of ethnic demands and revived nationalisms. Both reason and imagination tell us that the name of the solution, that point where you can balance the demands of integration and those of the nationalities, is federalism.”-Carlos Fuentes, 1996These were the concluding remarks in 2003 by <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/remembering-harka-gurung/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">geologist Harka Gurung</a> quoting the Mexican novelist in his discourse ‘Trident and Thunderbolt: Cultural Dynamics in Nepalese Politics’ as part of Social Science Baha’s Mahesh Chandra Regmi Lecture.There was a reason and relevance to Gurung quoting Fuentes. Nepal was at the peak of the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/from-the-frontlines-of-nepals-war/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Maoist conflict</a> and had just come off one of the bloodiest years of the insurgency. Abolition of the monarchy and state restructuring were being hotly debated even in the remotest corners of Nepal. King Gyanendra had staged a coup and political parties were preparing to take to the streets.Gurung was killed in the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/remembering-nepals-conservation-heroes/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Ghunsa helicopter crash</a> a few months after the ceasefire, but his 'federalism' solution was finally adopted in the 2015 Constitution.The preamble to the Constitution reads, ‘... resolving to build an egalitarian society based on the principles of proportional inclusion and representation to ensure economic equality, prosperity and social justice by assimilating the multi-ethnic, multi-lingual, multi-religious, multi-cultural and geographically diverse characteristics...’In accordance with this constitutional commitment and provision, elections for 753 local governments were held in 2017. Next month, it will be five years since they took office and on 13 May <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/think-nationally-vote-locally/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Nepalis will vote</a> for the second time in local elections.How successful have local governments been in 'establishing prosperity with social justice by addressing the diverse features of Nepali society' as directed by the Constitution? How much has service delivery improved, is it equitable, and is there <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/power-to-the-periphery/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">better governance</a>? What worked, what did not?The lessons learnt during the past five years can be a guide for the next crop of <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepals-local-governments-lead-from-the-front/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">local leaders</a>. We need to thoroughly review the workings of local governments.If we were to believe the political class and commentators in Kathmandu, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/federalism-rule-of-law-and-the-judiciary/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">federalism</a> in five short years has failed Nepal. They argue that federalism has decentralised corruption and sowed the seeds of social division.However, despite some of this being true, most local governments have performed above expectations. According to a recent evaluation, most municipalities scored more than 50 points out of 100 in their report cards.The three local governments that scored above 75 points were all rural municipalities.<img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114101144/63720df69c7e80680e0b78eejpeg.jpg" alt="" width="967" height="649">This assessment has challenged nay-sayers and proved that real federalism is <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/all-politics-is-local/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">working well in the hinterland</a>. The constitutional provision that women should mandatorily be either mayor or deputy in municipalities and the Dalit community should be represented has changed the dynamics of how Nepal is governed.Local governments are ahead of federal and provincial governments in their ability to spend development budgets. While the centre was <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/reinstate-remove-repeat/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">embroiled in power struggles</a> that paralysed provincial governments, the municipal and ward levels were quietly carrying out their duties. This has meant that there is not as much disillusionment with democracy and federalism at the grassroots.Perhaps the best example of this is how local governments handled the Covid-19 pandemic. While the federal government was engulfed by international procurement scandals, it was the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/women-leaders-set-example-for-rest-of-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">local leadership that stepped in</a> to provide immediate relief.This is not to say the local government were without faults which they cannot just blame on the lack of necessary laws, intervening agencies and the bureaucracy. Many elected officials have also been accused of being self-serving, inefficient and working as party cadres and not as people’s representatives.We have to learn from these mistakes, remove legal and policy ambiguities and make local governments more responsible and capable by emphasising good governance and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/including-the-excluded-in-the-bureaucracy/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">inclusion</a>.This requires a paradigm shift. The federal government with its centralised mindset, meddling provincial officials and non-cooperation from the bureaucracy must change radically. After that, <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/polls-in-the-time-of-pandemic/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">it is up to the local government</a> to make further reforms.In their first term, local governments focused on laying the foundations for development. Now, it has to look for economic opportunities to create jobs, raise living standards, develop human resources and conserve heritage.The first order of business to achieve this is to increase the capacity and awareness of the people to question elected representatives so that local levels are sufficiently empowered.The local unit of government is not just the cornerstone of federalism, but also a representation of participatory democracy that connects the state with the people.Federalism is also a threat to anti-democratic and regressive forces that want to take Nepal back to past instability. Federalism is not why the country is falling apart, as some would have it, but the cement that binds this diverse nation together.

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Nepal’s local election gives power back to people

<figure><img width="1750" height="919" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221114091156/6372033d9c7e80680e0b27f9jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption></figcaption></figure>The Election Commission has set local elections for May, with federal elections following early next year. Given the heated debate about federalism and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/secularism-and-sectarianism/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">secularism</a> the polls will be a referendum on those two issues. In 2017, Nepal held sub-national elections after 20 years. Those ward, municipal  and provincial representatives were pushed into uncharted territory, and coped the best they could. The hope was that locally-elected leaders would demonstrate more accountability than their national-level counterparts.Indeed, some ward and municipal chairs <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/women-leaders-set-example-for-rest-of-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">performed exceptionally well</a>. But many mayors are <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/from-nepali-press/Elected-contractors,4182" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">contractors</a>, and are involved in blatant malfeasance. Political devolution has decentralised corruption as well. News reports about Bagmati Province’s bloated ministries as well as the provincial governments just being reflections of the power balance in Kathmandu have given federalism a bad name. Which is why some political leaders want federalism scrapped. Local elections this year is a chance to set things right. All politics is local – or should be. And we have seen since 1990 in Nepal that decentralised political decision-making is the best way to govern.However, there are indications the polls will be a dirty political game where politicians devoid of ideology stoke <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/from-the-nepali-press/back-to/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">religious fervour </a>to get votes. This is dangerous, it will polarise and destabilise Nepali society.  This requires vigilance from voters who must vet candidates and cast their ballots for those who are more likely to address their most urgent needs like health, education, jobs and a streamlined administration – and not fall for extremist slogans.We need to make sure that the people at the local level, especially those who have been excluded till now in decision-making, benefit the most from federalism. Given Nepal’s diversity in ethnicity and religion, a prosperous and democratic society is not possible without the stability that secularism  guarantees. Going by the general conventions of the major parties over the last months, it looks like secularism, restoration of the monarchy and federalism will dominate the upcoming polls. <a style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/battle-lines-drawn-for-nepal-elections/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Rajendra Lingden’s resounding win</a> over Kamal Thapa as the leader of the RPP means that the party will be even more aggressive in promoting the royal-Hindu line. Even self-proclaimed democratic and progressive parties that stood for alternative politics like Bibeksheel Sajha are falling back on religion and monarchy to gain popular votes.  Republicanism, federalism and secularism became the main pillars of the Constitution that was drafted after two elections following the People’s Movement of 2006. Remove any one of these three pillars and the country could be pushed back to instability. Some of the very leaders who once played a key role in writing that Constitution, like Shashank Koirala and Shekhar Koirala of the ruling Nepali Congress (NC), are in favour of a Hindu state. The main opposition UML’s K P Oli has himself been dabbling in religion. An eager gathering of former prime ministers at a recent reception for Indian guru Baba Ramdev in Kathmandu in November also showed that political leaders across the spectrum recognise the power of religion in vote mobilisation. Much of this is due to the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/a-yam-between-two-indias/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">gravitational pull that India exerts on Nepal</a>. Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has actively used Hindu nationalism to stay on in power, and he has made no secret of his desire for Nepal to revert being a Hindu state. In Nepal, some leaders are deliberately bending the definition of ‘secularism’ to mean ‘anti-faith’ to disrupt Nepal’s long-standing religious harmony and tap the majoritarian vote bank. In her article Shaping Secularism in Nepal on European Bulletin of Himalayan Research, Chiara Letizia says that secularism in Nepal will be determined by how the Hindu majority is addressed: ‘Nepal is a post-secular laboratory, where the state’s policy must walk a tightrope, upholding ‘absolute’ secular values such as equal citizenship, and yet balancing the Hindu majority tradition, Hindu fears, and the claims of minorities for social, political and religious recognition.’Rajeev Bhargava, a political theorist who has studied India's secularism, suggests a principled stand for <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/editorial/separation-of-state-and-temple-in-nepal,1444" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">secularism</a> in countries like India and Nepal which are ethnically, culturally and linguistically diverse. The state should give equal respect to all religions, but can also push universal values of tolerance and human rights.The test of a true democracy is how well it treats its minorities. Following secularism in letter and spirit makes such tolerance possible, and having it enshrined in the Constitution is not enough. It should be followed in practice. Indian historian Bipan Chandra in his 2008 book Communalism: A Primer analyses how the anti-secularism spread: ‘Communalists call themselves good nationalists and communalism as nationalism. Therefore, the good fight against communalism must be fought on the same ground of nationalism.’To prevent Nepal from falling into the same trap and keep our democracy vibrant and inclusive, we must use upcoming elections to eschew parties that espouse majoritarianism, exclusion and division.At the very least Nepal’s political leaders must adhere to <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/by-the-way/new-constitution-should-adopt-inclusive-democracy-with-federalism-republicanism-secularism,538" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">values enshrined in the Constitution</a> as their true ‘religion’.Rabin Giri

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Volatile Mix of Politics and Religion

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110161144/636d1c609c7e80680e0af356jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1800" height="1200"/><figcaption></figcaption></figure>K P <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/oli-sweeps-uml-party-polls/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Oli’s re-election as leader</a> of his CPN-UML party has been portrayed by critics even within his own party as just the latest example of his authoritarian streak, but Nepal’s former prime minister has not done anything other party leaders have not done to consolidate internal power.Oli did try to get himself and his supporters appointed unopposed into leadership positions in the central membership and Central Committee. But after a rival faction led by Bhim Rawal pressed for a vote, he agreed and went on to win hands down.But had the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/unconventional-party-conventions/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">much-delayed UML general convention</a> been pushed back only three months more, Oli would not have been allowed to stand for party chair since he would have crossed the age limit of 70 for executive positions.Oli, who has undergone two kidney transplants, will therefore be leading the country’s biggest party till 2025. But this is the trend in all of Nepal’s main parties which are led by elderly male politicians who have clung on to power by sidelining rivals and bending rules.Oli beat <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/making-up-is-hard-to-do/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">his main rival Madhav Kumar Nepal</a> in the previous general convention seven years ago by a slim margin, and relations between the two were never good. When the UML united with the Maoists to form the Nepal Communist Party (NCP) after the electoral victory in 2018, things started to sour between Prime Minister Oli and  Maoist leader Pushpa Kamal Dahal, who found a convenient ally in Nepal.Cornered by the Nepal-Dahal faction, Oli used all the tricks in the book to stay on as both party chair and prime minister. But running out of trump cards, he dissolved the Lower House not once but twice, both times reinstated by the Supreme Court which also ruled earlier this year that the UML-Maoist party alliance was null and void.Nepal then <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepals-post-breakup-politics/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">split from the UML and set up his own Unified-Socialist party</a> and teamed up with the ruling five-party alliance with Dahal and Sher Bahadur Deuba of the Nepali Congress (NC).It is with this background that the UML party election this week has to be analysed – Oli has placed himself as the helmsman to steer the UML towards victory in the 2023 elections. The criticism against him from the other parties (by calling him authoritarian, and one cartoonist even portraying him as Adolf Hitler) is because they see him as a formidable foe.As it turned out, 2,153 votes fell at the UML general convention for various party positions, so whatever give-and-take happened behind the scenes, the outcome was democratic.<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110161144/636d1c639c7e80680e0af357jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1040" height="550"><figcaption></figcaption></figure>Among the candidates for senior party functionaries, Asta Laxmi Shakya with 1,976 ballots for deputy chair, and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/blood-sweat-and-tears/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Gokarna Bista</a> with 1,974 for secretary topped the list of those with the most votes from delegates. Surendra Pandey for the second largest number of votes for deputy chair with 1,925 votes and Yogesh Bhattarai came second for secretary with 1960.Needless to say, Shakya, Bista, Pandey and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/unusual-appointment-extraordinary-tasks/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Bhattarai</a> were all Oli’s critics and in fact were once in the Madhav Nepal faction. Neither Thakur Gaire and Ushakiran Timsena who were elected to central membership used to be pro-Oli, either.It was even more symbolic for Oli to try to get former Maoists into the top echelons of his party, which is why he fully backed the candidacies of Ram Bahadur Thapa for deputy chair, Top Bahadur Rayamajhi and Lekhraj Bhatta as secretaries.On 28 November, the close door meeting of an 11-member committee drew up a list for the 19 member Secretariat high command and candidates for the central membership. Questions can be raised about Oli having manipulated the process in his favour, but even if he did it, it did not go against party rules. And the fact that his candidates got the most votes makes the point moot now.With his <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepals-rudderless-political-leadership/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">eyes firmly set on elections</a>, he deliberately promoted the Nepal-faction candidates and ex-Maoists to top party positions. Even his detractors within the party understood that strategy and went along with it.And by not allowing Oli to elevate his candidates to the central membership and Secretariat unopposed, Bhim Rawal and Ghanshyam Bhusal actually helped him gain legitimacy, and earn credit for upholding internal democracy. That Oli and his supporters would win was a foregone conclusion, which is why Rawal and Bhusal actually ended up strengthening the UML.To be sure, Oli pushed his own blue eyed boys as well: Ishwar Pokhrel as senior deputy chair, Shankar Pokhrel as general secretary, as well as Bishnu Rimal as deputy general secretary and Padma Aryal as secretary.Ironically, the most dissatisfied with Oli were his close allies Bishnu Poudel, Subhas Nembang, Lalbabu Pandit, Binda Pandey, Radha Gyawali, Goma Devkota, and Bishal Bhattarai who did not get the positions and seniority they thought they deserved.

Post-convention, UML eyes set on elections

As this report is uploaded, the latest results in Nepal’s election show that the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) is headed for an even bigger sweep than most had predicted.
The RSP was leading by large margins in 49 of 165 constituencies, &nbsp;with the UML, NC and NCP trailing far behind. Prominent political figures from the old parties like K P Oli, Minwndra Prasad Rijal, Ishwar Pokhrel, Bishnu Prasad Poudel, Bimalendra Nidhi all seem headed for defeat.
It does look like the RSP’s bell election symbol is ringing right across Nepal — from cities to the remotest districts in the mountains and plains. The party’s blue colour is sweeping the land.
The Nepali people seem to have sent a clear message that they were throughly dissatisfied with the chronic failure of the three main parties to work in the national interest to create jobs and deliver development. It was also an expression of lingering outrage over the the 8 September massacre outside Parliament. &nbsp;
It now looks almost certain that Balendra Shah will get to be Nepal’s next, and youngest, prime minister. Hopefully he will be leading a cabinet of competent and honest technocrats. It remains to seen how the power equation between Shah and the RSP’s leader, Rabi Lamichhane will play out.
Lamichhane is out of jail on bail for fraud cases which he has called political vendetta by the previous regime. Both he and Shah are charismatic and ambitious. Their working relationship will determine Nepal's political stability and whether it can avoid the political cronyism of the past.
This election was not just about casting votes. It was about standing up to principles and a value system, and respecting the hopes and aspirations of Nepal’s youth. It to push for transparent government and against impunity — including for the gunning down of young Nepalis in cold blood.
<div class="embed-block"><iframe src="https://election-geo-dashboard.pages.dev/" width="100%" height="600" frameborder="0"> </iframe>Live election results as winners of candidates are announced.</div>
CAN DO MAN
Shah got mixed reviews as mayor. He was impulsive and ad hoc, but most people inKathmandu and beyond liked his can-do attitude and unconventional style which stood in sharp contract to the legacy leaders. Over his three year mayorship he showed more maturity and planning capacity.&nbsp;
But he always ran headlong into opposition from the federal government over his urban planning and other initiatives to make Kathmandu more liveable. Coming from a civil and structural engineering background, he was involved in building low-cost housing after the 2015 earthquake.
But his public persona is more tied to his irreverent rap lyrics that stood up for the marginalised underprivileged in society, while exposing the high-handedness and apathy of the state. But this also exposed contradictions because he also used his own municipal guards to beat and chase away street vendors and squatters.
But there is no doubt that a combination of the sharp messaging in his rap videos amplified by the algorithms of social media ignited Nepal’s youth to rise up. It was more about optics and emotion than policy and strategy.
He studied Kathmandu district for five years, visiting experts in every field before announcing his independent candidacy for mayor in 2022. Many like me in his own constitunecy did not know who he was and where he came from.
He is a year younger than my architect son, and I saw in him a reflection of my own son’s commitment to serving the nation. I voted for him to be mayor despite his sometimes erratic behaviour, which could be attributed to his youth.
The best sign of his strategic planning, which unsettled septuagenarian and octogenarian politicians, is the he did not grab the first easy option of becoming prime minister in September when GenZ activists offered him the post.&nbsp;
Joining RSP was a masterstroke, as was his challenge to Oli in Jhapa to project national branding. He needed a party platform and Lamichhane needed a popular prime ministerial persona since he himself could not hold the post.
Shah has shown the capacity to take risks when he believes the value justifies the action for the country. Now, he will have to show more strategic thinking on a national scale, as well as understand the delicate geopolitics of Nepal.&nbsp;
He must rise above the kind of crude social media posts that earned him followers on X, but did nothing to erase his erratic and impulsive image.&nbsp;
Some assume that behind his trademark RayBan shades is a closet dictator, and his past remarks about Hitler are still up on social media. He has in the past shown impatience with criticism, unleashing supporters on social media to troll detractors.&nbsp;
Even so, the public seems willing to place their hope on an educated young man with integrity and a proven record for planning at the helm. By tomorrow it will be clear whether the hope Nepalis have held has been fulfilled, and the coming years will show if the RSP will lead Nepalis to a better future.
The voters seem to have shown the door even to the NC despite the fact that under Gagan Thapa, the party had turned a new leaf. A strong government under Prime Minister Balendra Shah heading a carefully selected cabinet and a strong opposition of the NC, UML and other parties for check and balance may be just what we need for a stable Nepal.&nbsp;
Nepalis have collectively always shown maturity in elections. This time they have given a resounding endorsement for integrity and for good governance.

Bells ring all over Nepal

Nepal conducted its post-GenZ movement early election on Thursday in a peaceful and orderly manner, although turnout was below average in most districts. In fact, some constituencies saw voters reject the election, including in Arghakhanchi and Mustang.&nbsp; Preparation for the polls had to be done hurriedly after the September protests, with little time for political parties to work on their manifestos and campaign. But the election did push most parties to field younger, fresher and untainted candidates. This was more a <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/old-vs-new-vs-new">personality-driven election for the next prime minister</a> than a traditional parliamentary poll. The three main parties had pre-emptively announced their prime ministerial candidates although the chief executive is supposed to be decided by the largest party in the House.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2026030514034_00809e41288d8dd46d1c8915e8e39fba09892049cfda37ba347e4b23989e94c0.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="2026030514034_00809e41288d8dd46d1c8915e8e39fba09892049cfda37ba347e4b23989e94c0" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1366" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal elections"> <figcaption>Balendra Shah</figcaption> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2026030514034_d288f2cbe05c9c1376e315ea4f24528c5ee63766c978657aee8848eb9f87f4ea.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="2026030514034_d288f2cbe05c9c1376e315ea4f24528c5ee63766c978657aee8848eb9f87f4ea" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="1066" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal elections"> <figcaption>Gagan Thapa</figcaption> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2026030514034_3e2c1c4595b3aa3a4b0c6ca80aa6243e7c5c6e5d232c9295a380c565f85bd233.jpg" data-media-id="editor_3" data-image-id="2026030514034_3e2c1c4595b3aa3a4b0c6ca80aa6243e7c5c6e5d232c9295a380c565f85bd233" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1365" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal elections"> <figcaption>K P Oli</figcaption> </figure>  Going by the noise on social media sites, there seemed to be overwhelming support for the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) and its prime ministerial hopeful, former Kathmandu mayor <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/political-rap">Balendra Shah</a>. Standing against him in his home turf was K P Oli, of the UML who was forced to resign after the 9 September protests. Although the UML was fielding a tried and tested leader, the Nepali Congress (NC) has tried to carry forward the GenZ aspiration for change by putting forward its new party leader Gagan Thapa as its prime ministerial candidate. The lower-than-average turnout appears to have been driven by several factors: a public that is apathetic towards the older parties but is not yet convinced by the capability of the new. Limited time campaigning, and the over-idealistic manifestos of the parties does not seem to have fired up the electorate.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2026030514038_50394032b053d433ed039aeb6d2c00a491d2a56b48a67e55e27fbffe7e4c7fe4.jpg" data-media-id="editor_5" data-image-id="2026030514038_50394032b053d433ed039aeb6d2c00a491d2a56b48a67e55e27fbffe7e4c7fe4" data-rendition-name="original" width="1280" height="854" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal elections"> <figcaption>Photos: ADITYA KHARE</figcaption> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2026030514038_84677be963084003c9a3d3fec0b8f95ab9b9db08c160f08c82aa03b02cb81260.jpg" data-media-id="editor_6" data-image-id="2026030514038_84677be963084003c9a3d3fec0b8f95ab9b9db08c160f08c82aa03b02cb81260" data-rendition-name="original" width="1280" height="854" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal elections"> </figure>  The low turnout is also a reflection of massive outmigration from rural districts, and the requirement that voters had to go to their own home constituencies to vote. And since the Election Commission could not organised ballot by mail or online voting, most of the estimated 4 million voters abroad also could not cast their ballots. To be sure, Nepalis abroad do represent an anti-incumbent vote bloc, and they have influenced families and friends back home through social media. The trend towards RSP and younger candidates is therefore a rejection of the old, and a protest vote against the legacy parties rather than full support for the new ones. Many migrants who were coming back to vote were also stuck in West Asia after the war broke out between Iran and Israel-US. Airlines have had to make drastic rerouting plans, and at least 21,000 flights have been cancelled. The conflict will affect petroleum imports including LPG and aviation fuel, if it continues any longer. Although our reliance on fossil fuels is declining, thanks to the increased electrification of transport and cooking, the shortage might be the first crisis for the new government of Nepal to tackle.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2026030514038_986438337f2af271ab33d267560b8a25691a72292aae074488dc8e77f27cf9c1.jpg" data-media-id="editor_7" data-image-id="2026030514038_986438337f2af271ab33d267560b8a25691a72292aae074488dc8e77f27cf9c1" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1536" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal elections"> <figcaption>Polling in Sangjya. Photo: SHRISTI KARKI</figcaption> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2026030514038_dd2624707dae59f3b32fdebb402a3edfbfe99a4031f4f43dd4522ef7c58bfab0.jpg" data-media-id="editor_8" data-image-id="2026030514038_dd2624707dae59f3b32fdebb402a3edfbfe99a4031f4f43dd4522ef7c58bfab0" data-rendition-name="original" width="1523" height="2030" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal elections"> <figcaption>Photo: SUDIKSHA TULADHAR</figcaption> </figure>  There were 18.9 million registered voters nationwide, and the 60% turnout this time follows a declining trend, possibly making it the lowest in Nepal's polling history. In the first federal election in 2017, the turnout was an impressive 67%, which dipped to 61% in the 2022 election, although it was slightly higher in the municipal election. The EC has started counting the votes on Thursday evening and hopes to have the winners of the FPTP candidates out within 24 hours, however the tallies of the Proportional Representation ballots for the parties may take up to a week.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2026030514034_8ff38b016d3cb75f27343ebe5d826f9201bfefffb6147dcbb0c415071ceb472d.jpg" data-media-id="editor_9" data-image-id="2026030514034_8ff38b016d3cb75f27343ebe5d826f9201bfefffb6147dcbb0c415071ceb472d" data-rendition-name="original" width="1616" height="1080" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal elections"> <figcaption>Ballot boxes being collected. Photos: AMIT MACHAMASI</figcaption> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2026030514034_6e6f6a792db2790533b7ef261e51dbdc07745ee96b80eaa8edc5abab4c7cfd21.jpg" data-media-id="editor_10" data-image-id="2026030514034_6e6f6a792db2790533b7ef261e51dbdc07745ee96b80eaa8edc5abab4c7cfd21" data-rendition-name="original" width="1616" height="1080" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal elections"> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2026030514034_75951a6583c17a741e3f9bd1abb796bbefed335cb6e694e5cddf519bfd0b9ed4.jpg" data-media-id="editor_11" data-image-id="2026030514034_75951a6583c17a741e3f9bd1abb796bbefed335cb6e694e5cddf519bfd0b9ed4" data-rendition-name="original" width="1616" height="1080" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal elections"> </figure>  Many have praised the interim prime minister installed six months ago by the GenZ movement, former chief justice <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/mission-nearly-accomplished">Sushila Karki</a> for conducting the polls on time as promised—a task that looked impossible until a few months ago, especially considering how Sri Lanka and Bangladesh suspended their electoral processes for a long time following their own youth uprisings. Balen Shah also took to his social media to commend Karki. He wrote: 'हजुरको नेतृत्वमा आज लोकतन्त्रले जितेको छ । <a href="https://www.facebook.com/hashtag/%E0%A4%86%E0%A4%AE%E0%A4%BE?__eep__=6&amp;__cft__[0]=AZYlGAeGzdXOS93cs8uOYTfW2l5YtXypnOpQOwFwdzWQQ2X_sLcqe_tqk518ULo-ftJnT5sCeT83L5zqMhzL09YgqxYLxDTzkHRSXiEtegetmKjz0ZbMz54cS2KFOKvPtqdHCZn4J6N0i4IvRDSXgHcCdLLd3kQYflb-Popks3zpA3O9Pqd4_Yh9efVCtMUPumJdN0l-y32bQLREPIMYm_mnJDYHbgoUy9iRUGMu1IOGHQ&amp;__tn__=*NK-y-R" target="_blank">#आमा</a>' (Democracy has won under your leadership. #mother). After casting her vote from Kathmandu on Thursday, Karki said: “I have fulfilled my responsibility towards the nation, let us hope the people’s wish for stability and prosperity will be fulfilled by the new elected government.”

Nepal votes with below average turnout

After Thursday’s election, Nepalis are in a wait-and-watch mode. The Election Commission says counting ballot papers will be expedited this time, and the results for the First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) will start being declared within days. In 2022, it took three weeks for the final results to be tallied.&nbsp;
But winning an election is only half the challenge for the parties, forming a government under parliamentary politics is like a complicated mathematical equation.&nbsp;
In 2022, the Nepali Congress (NC) emerged as the biggest party, winning 89 seats. But the UML with 78 seats and the Maoists with 32 formed a minority government. In fact, Sher Bahadur Deuba did not become PM then despite leading the biggest party in Parliament.
This time, there is an unmistakeable Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) wave led by its prime ministerial candidate, Balendra Shah. Besides his own popularity, Shah represents change which most Nepalis are clamouring for after decades of corrupt and feckless coalitions that did not deliver.&nbsp;
The past months of campaigning has seen massive youth engagement on social media through memes, AI clips, and viral images. Digital content that appeals to emotion rather than policy debate between candidates shape electoral outcomes in Nepal and elsewhere. &nbsp;
Shah represents GenZ aspirations, and was their candidate for prime minister. It was only when he declined that Sushila Karki was nominated. None of the political parties in the recent past -- new, old, or revolutionary — have won enough seats to go it alone.&nbsp;
The most recent majority government was formed by the short-lived Communist Party of Nepal after the UML-Maoist merger in 2022. But that rare two-thirds majority collapsed after a power struggle between K P Oli and Pushpa Kamal Dahal. The only party to have won a majority was the NC in the 1991 and 1999 elections. But it is near impossible for it to repeat this success now, even with Gagan Thapa's rebranding of the party.&nbsp;
We have compiled these possible scenarios for election outcome in order of likelihood:
RSP gets a majority
RSP hits the magic 138 to form a government entirely on its own. Balendra Shah wins Jhapa-5, and becomes the new prime minister at 35, the youngest ever to hold the office in Nepal. But danger lurks: there could be a personality clash between Shah and Lamichhane who are both equally ambitious. History could repeat itself.&nbsp;
RSP wins but does not get a majority
RSP is likely to sweep the most votes, but what if it does not secure enough seats for a majority? It would need a coalition partner and Nepali Communist Party (NCP) under Pushpa Kamal Dahal could fit the bill, but only if it has the numbers. The RSP is not likely to team up with the UML or NC.
The NCP is relatively untainted by the 8 September events, and also has former UML defectors like Madhav Kumar Nepal and Bhim Rawal who could bag their rural vote banks. After all, there are no permanent foes in politics. If the royalist RPP and Tarai-based Janata Samajwadi have enough seats, those could be options for the RSP. &nbsp;
NC is second
The NC under the new leadership of Gagan Thapa could become the second biggest force and form a government with RSP in a power-sharing deal with Shah. This would be the most stable scenario since the RSP and NC have competent and idealistic young technocrats. Thapa himself embodies a strong combination of both old and new politics to navigate the system for more efficient government. But then Thapa and the RSP's Rabi Lamichhane do not get along.
NC and NCP form a majority
If the NC becomes the largest party but not by a big margin, it could join up with the NCP and Ujyalo. Teaming up with the UML would likely face backlash with the party and outside. If Gagan Thapa becomes prime minister he will face internal pressure from both Deuba loyalists. Same old story.
Minority coalition of NC, UML and NCP
RSP becomes the first party but does not get a majority, paving the way for the three legacy parties to cobble together a minority government. While this is possible in Nepal’s parliamentary system, such a scenario is likely to lead to more instability and dissatisfaction among young Nepalis demanding change, and even trigger street unrest. &nbsp;

The magic 138

Of the nearly 19 million eligible voters in next week’s election in Nepal, an estimated 5 million are abroad and cannot cast their ballots. Many others within Nepal must travel to their home districts, and might decide not to because of the cost.
Flights into Kathmandu these days are full of global Nepalis returning just to vote, but almost as many are leaving for overseas jobs. Most of those coming or going are in the 20-40 age group, and a majority want Nepal to see a change in leadership.
Bangladesh held an election this month in which citizens overseas could vote by mail.&nbsp;
“Bangladesh made maximum use of technology not just for campaigning but also for polling itself. We could have also managed this, so people within Nepal did not have to travel to their home districts to vote,” says Mohna Ansari, former head of Nepal’s National Human Rights Commission who was an election observer in Bangladesh.
A 3-day holiday has been declared so people can travel to their home constituencies to cast ballots. Even if there was not enough time to manage ballots for overseas Nepalis, it could have been done for Nepalis within Nepal.
Former Chief Election Commissioner Bhojraj Pokharel reckons that physical voting in countries with a large Nepali diaspora would have been a logistical nightmare, but in the PR system, using electronic voting machines or paper ballot could have been piloted in some places. It is not possible to manage the entire voting process until we introduce the internet voting system.
“First of all, there needs to be political will to bring the policy and be ready to undertake that level of investment and it is not a one-time cost,” Pokharel says. “A government formed by the GenZ could have atr least issed an ordinance ensuring this right, piloted out-of-country voting where possible, which could have built pressure for the future Parliament and the government. It would have given people hope. It is a lost opportunity.”
All major political parties called for voting rights for global Nepalis in their manifestos, but these very leaders blocked legislation allowing it despite a 2017 Supreme Court ruling out of fear that it would be anti-incumbent.&nbsp;
<h2>Why so late?</h2>
Bangladesh delivered election results in just one day, but the final results of Nepal's last local polls in 2022 including that of Kathmandu constituencies took nearly a month.
Acting Chief Election Commissioner Ram Prasad Bhandari said this week that the results of the First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) ballot counting would “likely” be published within 24 hours of the poll closing at 5PM on 5 March. But many are skeptical.
“I wonder if we lack the capacity or know-how to announce results as quickly as possible,” says Mohna Ansari.
Former Chief Election Commissioner Pokharel says manual ballot paper counting in Nepal is inherently slow because of the large numner of political parties and/or candidates on the ballot, the counting mechanism, the political behaviour of the candidates/parties and some managerial issues during counting.
“Our present policy is to count all the ballot papers at the returning officers' officies, located at the district headquarters. It requires collecting ballot boxes safetly first. This takes time, and there have been cases of ballot boxes being damaged or stolen during transport. In a few highly difficult, geographically remote polling centres, we use a helicopter or transport. But sometimes, accommodating the party and candidates' representatives remains challenging,” explains Pokharel. A solution could be counting ballots at the very booths where they are cast.
Another reason for the delay is simply the number of political parties, and the need for each ballot paper to be examined by booth representatives for consensus. In close races, the smallest difference can lead to tense situations, further delaying results, even though counting centres are protected by metal fencing so there is no disruption.
After this, then it is the turn of Proportional Representation (PR) ballots to be counted. Weeks pass by the time the results of candidates and parties are tallied and verified. But the most common delay is because election officers think ballot counting is a nine-to-five job.&nbsp;
“The efficiency of poll station officers is most important, and they are incentivised for this,” says Ansari, adding that counting can even start within an hour after voting closes.
In remote areas, local resources could be mobilised to make counting quicker, but there is a crisis of trust, adds Ansari.&nbsp;
That could be easily solved with electronic voting which the EC implemented in the 2008 polls but discontinued because political parties felt the machines could be hacked or manipulated.