<figure><img width="1198" height="1227" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110141148/636d01b79c7e80680e0a3640jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Photo: BIKRAM RAI/ NEPALI TIMES ARCHIVES</figcaption></figure>In a step that could be a precursor to the US-backed Millenium Challenge Corporation (MCC) project to upgrade Nepal’s power grid, the country this week signed an agreement with India to increase two-way electricity trade.Nepal Electricity Authority (NEA) Managing Director Kulman Ghising on Wednesday signed an MoU with the state-run Power Grid Corporation of India (POWERGRID) for the construction of a second, transnational 400kV transmission line from Butwal to Gorakhpur.This new power line will be connected to the 350km transmission line up to Butwal that will evacuate power from 3,000MW of electricity being generated from new power projects in Nepal in the next three years. However, this domestic power line has been thrown into doubt because politicisation of the $500 million MCC project by Nepal’s bickering parties has blocked its ratification by Parliament.Ghising is in New Delhi to sign off on a joint investment agreement. The project is a key subset of the MCC’s main objective: a 315km transmission line between Hetauda-Damauli-Butwal, which will prove crucial as private projects such as the 456MW Upper Tamakosi come on stream, allowing Nepal to have surplus electricity at least during the monsoon.The transmission line from Butwal in Nepal to Gorakhpur in India will be 120km, with 20km of it in Nepal and will cost Rs6 billion. The project will be financed by loans and 20% of it by equity from a jointly-owned NEA-POWERGRID company. Nepal will build its side of the transmission line by itself, while the joint company will be responsible for building the Indian section. Work is underway to finish the transmission line within three to three-and-half years.“With the agreement, the stage is set to create the joint company and write up transmission service agreements.” Ghising said from the Indian capital.Once the Butwal-Gorakhpur line is completed, Nepal will be able to export up to 2,000MW of electricity, much more than the present Dhalkebar-Muzaffarpur corridor that can handle only 300MW. The new transmission line will not just be able to export electricity to India, but can also be part of new power deals with Bangladesh in future.“This will prove to be a lifeline for energy trade, as it will have more than double the capacity of the currently operational 400kW Dhalkebar-Muzaffarpur transmission line,” explains NEA’s director of the Power Trade Department Prabal Adhikari.  Construction of an India-Nepal transmission line is a prerequisite for the MCC’s implementation, and the NEA’s agreement signals a bold move forward by the Deuba administration despite fierce opposition to the American project from his coalition partners, the Pushpa Kamal Dahal-led Maoist Centre and Madhav Kumar Nepal’s breakaway CPN (United Socialist) faction.In fact, Vice President of the MCC Fatema Z Sumar <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/mcc-row-rocks-nepals-ruling-coalition/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/mcc-row-rocks-nepals-ruling-coalition/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1631417436093000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHc1BZYi3I_-MmKqmtnCKyZXJhesA">jetted into Kathmandu</a> on Monday in a bid to convince politicians opposing the project that the MCC had no military or strategic component, and was purely a catalytic initiative meant to kick-start Nepal’s economic growth.The Maoists and other coalition members have whipped up populist opposition to the MCC project saying it is anti-national, against the Constitution and part of US military strategy to encircle China. The MCC responded to a Finance Ministry query ahead of the Sumar visit saying that the project was not above Nepal’s Constitution, and America had no hidden agenda behind it. Translated by Kaustubh Dhital from the <a href="https://www.himalkhabar.com/news/125779">Nepali language original</a> in Himal Khabar.

original

674x448

610x380

500x500

400x266

400x240

400x203

301x200

1084x550

India, Nepal sign power exchange deal

<figure><img width="1375" height="917" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110141148/636d01329c7e80680e0a361ajpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Youth staged a demonstration protesting the US-funded Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC)  in Kathmandu on Tuesday. Photo: AMIT MACHAMASI</figcaption></figure>For many outsiders, Nepal must seem like a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma. Indeed, even Nepalis seem to think so. In 2017, a Nepali Congress-Maoist coalition government led by Prime Minister Deuba concluded an agreement in Washington DC for a $500 million <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/a-millennium-challenge/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">US-funded Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC)</a> compact to upgrade Nepal’s electricity grid and highways.Signing it was Finance Minister Gyanendra Bahadur Karki. Deuba is now prime minister again in a coalition once more with the Maoists, and Karki is the minister for law and parliamentary affairs. And four years later, the <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/just-do-it/">MCC is still stuck</a> because of a clause in the agreement requiring that it be ratified by Nepal’s Parliament.Ever since it was signed, the MCC was <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/knowing-whats-good-for-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">weaponised by squabbling parties</a> and factions in Nepali politics, who in turn are heavily influenced by global and regional geopolitical rivalries between India and China on the one hand and between the US and China on the other. After K P Oli became prime minister following the 2017 elections, he strongly backed the MCC. But his rivals in the Communist Party of Nepal (CPN) including Maoist leader Pushpa Kamal Dahal, and dissidents from his own UML, used provisions in the MCC that they saw as being anti-national against Oli, and <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/own-goal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">ultimately brought him down</a>.Since 13 July, Deuba has led a coalition made up of the Maoist Centre (MC), the breakaway CPN (United Socialist) and the Janata Samajbadi Party (JSP) which are all opposed to the MCC. Baburam Bhattarai was prime minister in 2012 and he is now a high-ranking JSP member.The MCC has become such a <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/mcc-row-damages-nepals-credibility/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">political hot potato</a> that Deuba could not even include it in the coalition’s common minimum program unveiled by the five coalition partners on 9 August.Deuba now finds himself in the peculiar position where his main ally on the MCC is perhaps Oli, the main opposition leader. But things are not so clear cut even within Oli’s UML: some members, including Bhim Rawal who refused to join Nepal’s United Socialists, is still one of the most vociferous critics of the MCC.Nepal’s <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/they-fail-we-fall/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/they-fail-we-fall/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1631155308029000&amp;usg=AFQjCNG3klwd67fP-6Xn2ZiSVVJYwWzcmQ">chronic political instability</a> has brought development to a standstill, pandemic response is erratic, but the most concrete collateral damage has been on the MCC which would have helped upgrade Nepal’s power grid with a new high-capacity 400kV transmission line between Hetauda-Damauli-Butwal, a distance of 315km.In the next three years, more than 3,000MW of electricity will be <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/decentralising-hydropower/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/decentralising-hydropower/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1631155308029000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGPfbM7-axPW-w74bmH5tAAIiE4-g">added to Nepal’s national grid</a>, more than doubling generation capacity. The new lines will allow this power to be distributed within Nepal, and also for export surplus monsoon power to India through the Butwal-Gorakhpur corridor. Despite its hydropower potential, mismanagement and poor governance means that Nepal presently spends Rs20 billion a year importing nearly half its power demand from India.If the MCC power line is not built, much of the electricity being generated in future <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/power-politics-delays-mcc-in-nepal/">will be wasted</a>. The Nepal Electricity Authority (NEA) has already signed power purchase agreements with private companies to buy up to 2,500MW in the next few years, and those  investments are also at risk.The anti-Oli faction in the CPN led by Pushpa Kamal Dahal and Madhav Kumar Nepal were so effective in <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/post-truth-politics-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">building up public opinion</a> against the MCC that cadres from Communist factions right down to the grassroots are now dead set against it because they believe it is part of America’s Indo-Pacific Strategy to encircle China. The MCC’s vice-president Fatema Z Sumar arrives in Kathmandu on 9 September amidst street protests. Deuba has been trying to get Oli on board the MCC and cobble together enough votes to get Parliament ratification, which would destabilise the coalition even before it can complete forming a government.Deuba tried to placate his partners last week by approving an absurdly worded letter from the Finance Ministry to the MCC, asking if the agreement undermined Nepal’s sovereignty — as if it was for the Americans to decide even if it was.The MCC agreement is hotting up even as the Deuba government walks the geopolitical tightrope between India and China. It set up another committee to investigate a border pillar issue in Humla even though a previous committee has said there has been no encroachment by China. And more than a month after the death of a Nepali on the Mahakali wire bridge, it finally sent a tepid diplomatic note to New Delhi last week.The NEA has to start working on a Plan B in place in case the MCC is not ratified so that future electricity generation can be evacuated to consumers. Read also: <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/using-the-delay-in-mcc-to-dissect-it/">Putting the MCC in context</a>, Jeevan R Sharma and David Seddon

1250x600

MCC: damned if we do, damned if we don’t

<figure><img src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/20221110141132/636cfdd29c7e80680e0a0c06jpeg.jpg" alt="" width="1198" height="1227"/><figcaption>Photo: BIKRAM RAI/ NEPALI TIMES ARCHIVES</figcaption></figure>The most tangible collateral damage of Nepal’s <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/they-fail-we-fall/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">chronic political instability</a> is going to be the effort to streamline Nepal’s electricity grid. Politicians have weaponised the US-supported <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/power-politics-delays-mcc-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) infrastructure grant</a>, and the much-needed project is stuck.An agreement for the $500 million project was signed by the Nepali Congress (NC) Finance Minister Gyanendra Bahadur Karki in Washington DC four years ago. But since then, it had become a <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/knowing-whats-good-for-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">political football </a>in the great game between prime Minister K P Oli and his nemeses Pushpa Kamal Dahal and Madhav Kumar Nepal.The first hint that the MCC controversy was carrying over to the new government was that it was not included in the ‘common minimum program’ agreed to between the five coalition partners on 9 August.The Maoists and the Nepal faction have used the MCC so effectively to bludgeon Oli’s government that the rank-and-file are dead against the project. They are convinced it will allow the US military to build missile silos in Nepal aimed at China.<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/using-the-delay-in-mcc-to-dissect-it/">Putting the MCC in context</a>, Jeevan R Sharma and David SeddonThe MCC was launched by the US government in 2004 as an innovative way to end poverty in least developed countries. Nepal met the eligibility criteria and was selected as a partner, and planning for the MCC started during the government of Baburam Bhattarai in 2012. Bhattarai is now in the five-party alliance as a part of the JSP.Critics have used ultra-nationalism and populism to portray the MCC as a form of US neo-colonialism and imperialism. The Americans fuelled the fire themselves when a US undersecretary of state admitted in 2019 that the MCC was a part of the US Indo-Pacific Strategy aimed at encircling China.Washington back-pedalled, but the damage was done. There are many who do not need convincing that the MCC in Nepal is America’s geo-strategic response to<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/bri-and-trans-himalayan-connectivity/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"> China’s Belt-Road Initiative</a>.But because of this political impasse, work on urgently needed electricity transmission lines and highway upgrading has not started. The cost of not having this infrastructure in place will be much more than the $500 million outlay of the project.<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/banner/own-goal/">Own Goal</a>, Kunda DixitThe main objective of the MCC is a 315km transmission line between Hetauda-Damauli-Butwal. This power line is critical for the east-west distribution of the 3,000MW of electricity that will be <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/opinion/decentralising-hydropower/">added to Nepal’s national grid</a> in the next three years, nearly double the current generation capacity. Another 2,500MW worth of projects are awaiting power purchase agreements with the NEA and will depend on the MCC transmission lines being in place.Nepal’s current power need is 1,500MW at peak hours, and despite suppressed demand due to shortage and cost, it is not expected to increase by much in the next three years. Which means Nepal will have a <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/generating-electricity-and-cash-for-nepalis/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">monsoon surplus</a> that can be exported to India, and for this, the cross-border 400KV transmission line from Butwal to Gorakhpur will be necessary.At present, Nepal imports electricity from India through the Dhalkebar-Muzzafarpur power corridor that has a capacity of handling only 800MW. The MCC line would increase this to 2,600MW, but if the Butwal-Gorakhpur transmission line is not built in the next few years, much of the surplus electricity generated in Nepal is in danger of being wasted, or 'spilled' in technical parlance.Even if the MCC is <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/post-truth-politics-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">never ratified by Parliament because of the political deadlock</a>, Nepal needs to immediately start building these transmission lines by itself. Private power producers in Nepal have signed agreements with NEA on the understanding that the transmission lines will be in place to evacuate the electricity they generate.Because of the nature of the monsoon and Nepal’s east-west territory, there will be surplus electricity in the east while there is a deficit in the west, so the transmission lines are even more critical to balance the national grid.<a style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/mcc-row-damages-nepals-credibility/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">This is too serious a subject</a> to be left to politicians, or to geopolitics. The NEA’s new head Kulman Ghising needs to sit down with the MCA’s Khadga Bahadur Bista and resolve this one way or another right away.In the 1960s, at the height of the Cold War and despite sensitivities after the India-China war, King Mahendra went ahead with the Kodari Highway linking Kathmandu to Lhasa. That is the kind of leadership we need now, one that will not be terrified about <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/is-china-now-micro-managing-nepal-politics/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">what one or the other neighbour will say</a>, but decide what is in the national interest and just do it.Ramesh KumarRead also:<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/editorial/a-millennium-challenge/">A millennium challenge</a>, Editorial<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/from-the-nepali-press/why-there-is-no-foreign-investment-in-nepal/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Why there is no foreign investment in Nepal</a> , Nepali Times

Challenge of the millennium

The monsoon has got bad press because Nepal’s tourism operators actively told visitors to avoid <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/managing-the-monsoon?%2F">the rainy season</a>. It is time to change that. The reason can be found right here in the vast alpine meadows of Central Nepal where this time of year you can walk on velvet grass of pastures abloom with delicate pink, red and yellow flowers as the mist rolls up the valley. There is no sound except the hum of bumble bees. &nbsp;&nbsp; There are dozens of places across high Nepal called Chaurikharka, which means yak pasture. But this particular Chaurikharka in Rukum East located at an altitude of 4,000m stands out for its serene beauty, rustic charm and bucolic setting. There is just the occasional chime of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/when-yaks-go-so-does-culture">yak bells</a> in the distance, and the sharp whistle of herders corralling sheep. &nbsp;&nbsp; The grass shoots are so fragile that one hesitates to step on them, the rounded ridges appear and quickly vanish in waves of mist. With the<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/before-the-next-monsoon"> arrival of monsoon</a>, these meadows are a soothing shade of green dotted with millions of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/review/the-anatomy-of-a-flower?%2F=">multi-coloured flowers</a>. Until very recently, it took a week or so to hike up to places like Chaurikharka, but with the expansion of the road network even to these far-flung mountains in the lap of Dhaulagiri, they are much more accessible. It is just a three-hour uphill from the Mid-Hill Highway on the border between Baglung and Rukum East.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250802130828_a0b06b494d751b2144ffbbf10894ea64b29e8aed844bc8c66171783abfaf4e16.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20250802130828_a0b06b494d751b2144ffbbf10894ea64b29e8aed844bc8c66171783abfaf4e16" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1365" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon"> </figure>  Purists would say that such easy access devalues the sanctity of these remote high meadows, but it also means more people will be moved to treasure the experience, appreciate <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/natures-fragile-gift-to-nepal">the value of nature </a>so they can take steps to protect it.&nbsp; To be sure, the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/deadly-monsoon-in-nepal-turns-deadlier">monsoon season can be challenging for road travel</a>. The roads are rough even at the best of times, and in the monsoon they become muddy and treacherous, often blocked by<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/monsoon-deluge-in-nepal"> landslides</a>. But that could be precisely the kind of adventure that the more intrepid visitors crave. Improved road connectivity has already made Chaurikharka and places like Badimallika &nbsp;and other sacred lakes in the mountains of western Nepal popular with domestic tourists. What is driving this traffic is the urge to go to exotic new places and share videos and selfies on social media. Several of Nepal’s travel vloggers have visited Chaurikharka and popularised the place, enticing followers on TikTok or YouTube to retrace their footsteps. But even as they become more popular, these fragile and once-remote places should be protected from over-tourism.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110736_f97110b7cdc3e7f80d5877690948fc9f4c95a09c583deb23b07355491e6c5446.jpg" data-media-id="editor_8" data-image-id="20250731110736_f97110b7cdc3e7f80d5877690948fc9f4c95a09c583deb23b07355491e6c5446" data-rendition-name="original" width="1083" height="699" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon NT"> </figure>  <h2>INCREASING FOOTFALL</h2> Chaurikharka is located in Bhume Rural Municipality of East Rukum, near the scenic valley of Dhorpatan in Baglung district. Even in the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/monsoon-culture">middle of the monsoon</a>, there is a steady stream of Nepali hikers trooping to these high pastures – especially during festival days like Saune Sankranti which this year was on 17 July and actually marks the auspicious beginning of the monsoon here. “This year the rains have not been as heavy and there have been some clear mornings when we could see everything from Dhaulagiri to Machapuchre,” says Khageswar Bhandari, who trekked up here from the road. “The flowers, the greenery and the snowy mountain views make this an incredibly unique place.”&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250802130824_1b9e26f2e9853fdfe69154bb42a7c9ea6da4bf4940efc1da99b304dcfbd7d3d9.jpg" data-media-id="editor_10" data-image-id="20250802130824_1b9e26f2e9853fdfe69154bb42a7c9ea6da4bf4940efc1da99b304dcfbd7d3d9" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1152" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon"> </figure>  Chaurikharka is worthwhile to get to in any season, but it has a different charm during the monsoon. Word has spread and because it is now easy to get to from Baglung or even Pokhara, people have been flocking here.&nbsp; “Holidays and Saturdays see the largest crowds, with up to 500 visitors every day,” says ward chair Mankaji Pun of Bhume.&nbsp; There was a time not too long ago when local herders brought sheep, goats, cows, buffaloes, horses, and mules to graze here during the monsoon. Although there are still livestock around, animals have been replaced by visitors taking selfies. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-monsoon-and-nature-s-arithmetic">The monsoon, and nature’s arithmetic</a>, Tom Robertson Ward Chair Pun says infrastructure development is his main priority. A foot trail to Chaurikharka was built last year by the Tourism Division Office in Kohalpur, but access via the Raniwas-Koipa road section still remains challenging.&nbsp; “If we get more budget, we can improve the road and facilities to make Chaurikharka the main tourist attraction of this region,” says Bhume Municipality Chair Hom Prakash Shrestha. “After that, we hope to promote Chaurikharka as a top tourist spot.”&nbsp; Economic activity is also picking up with the arrival of visitors, but there seems to be a need to manage the makeshift sheds made of corrugated sheets that spoil the beauty of the place. Tea shops and lodges are also available but facilities are basic. Kuldeep Neupane took a three-day trip from Ghorahi in Dang to visit Chaurikharka recently, and says: “This is an ideal trip to make a quick getaway and let nature recharge your mind and body. And it is much more fun with a tent, to watch the sunrise over the Himalaya or the mist blowing in.”

Visit Nepal in the monsoon

Two weeks ago, Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli announced jubilantly on social media that Nepal had achieved a historic annual growth of 81.8% in exports. He was right. Nepal’s trade did take a great leap forward compared to last year. But the dramatic rise was mainly due to processed soya bean oil.&nbsp; However, Nepal does not produce the edible oil it exports. In fact, the soya and palm oil that make up 44% of total exports are imported from Southeast Asia and South America, and simply re-exported, mostly to India.&nbsp; Under the SAFTA (South Asian Free Trade Area) Agreement, Nepal can export products to India duty-free if it has at least 30% value-added. Nepal’s traders have taken advantage of SAFTA even though the edible oils they export do not reach that value addition threshold. “The 30% value addition requirement is often only on paper,” says former commerce secretary Purushottam Ojha. “It is clear that simply packaging edible oils in Nepal does not fulfil the terms of the trade agreement.” Prime Minister Oli is aware of this, and even called Nepal’s export figures “fake” at an earlier event. The government is relying on other iffy figures to suggest that Nepal’s economy is strong and getting stronger. For example, the value of imports rose by 13.25% in 2024-25 compared to the previous fiscal year.&nbsp; Some of it was due to a jump in electric vehicle imports worth Rs 31.76 billion, but mostly it was because more wholesale soya oil was imported to be re-packaged and sold in India. The very fact that the government boasts about increased imports is an indication of how much it relies on taxing them for revenue. Touting such trade figures cannot be the basis to claim an economic rebound.&nbsp; “A jump in the value of imports can be interpreted as an increase in purchasing power, but it is not evidence of a stronger economy,” says economist Keshav Acharya. “Even though imports have increased, Nepal's domestic production and productive capacity have not improved.” Nepal Rastra Bank's semi-annual economic activity study report shows that industrial production was down in the first six months of the last fiscal year. This despite an increase in the number of new industries registered and investment commitments. Out of the Rs70.2 billion proposed foreign investment, Nepal received only Rs17.9 billion last year.&nbsp; Meanwhile, the rate of capital formation was limited to 24% last year, which is lower than the year before, suggesting that new investment, job creation and economic expansion all declined. If domestic production does not improve in relation to this year’s inflated trade figures, the outflow will put pressure on foreign exchange reserves like it did three years ago. At that time, Nepal borrowed from the IMF under its Extended Credit Facility Program to kickstart the economy.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025080710084_2cdaaa5795828c4a7de93a0604ba884ef0a8b8f24cccd939f6c24e279ab6058f.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="2025080710084_2cdaaa5795828c4a7de93a0604ba884ef0a8b8f24cccd939f6c24e279ab6058f" data-rendition-name="original" width="1633" height="723" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal's bubble economy NT"> <figcaption>Source: NEPAL RASTRA BANK</figcaption> </figure>  The macroeconomy is on firm footing with foreign exchange reserves at a comfortable Rs2,520 billion in May, up 23% from last year. This was largely due to remittances, and partly due to a falling NPR exchange rate. Real estate transactions and the stock market index have also been climbing as a result of government policies to revive the sector.&nbsp; However, former executive director of Nepal Rastra Bank Nar Bahadur Thapa cautions: “This is not organic growth, it is the result of deliberate policy decisions to relax rules on real estate and stock markets transactions.” In reality, the sharp rise in land prices have increased the cost of production, and excessive monetisation of the real estate has become the main source of Nepal’s economic woes. The central bank has announced a slew of new policies, shifting the terms of loan repayment for industrialists and entrepreneurs, reducing interest rates, and injecting more working capital — all designed to inject adrenaline into the real estate and stock market sectors.&nbsp; When he was governor, Mahaprasad Adhikari made several financial reforms during the latter half of his tenure to stimulate the economy, including tightening credit flow.&nbsp; By the last fiscal year, additional financial reforms had resulted in a credit expansion rate of around 8%. As the pace of credit expansion slows, real estate prices have started to fall. This is actually beneficial to the economy, because it lays the foundation for improvements in land-related entrepreneurship, production, and the construction sector. Just because real estate and the stock market transactions increase, it does not indicate an economic turnaround — especially when manufacturing and productive sector continues to languish.&nbsp; “It is foolish to believe that real estate and the stock market have magically revived our economy. Agriculture employs more than half of the population, but it is in decline. Investment in the productive sector has not increased, and job creation has not increased.” Two years ago, Nepal’s industrialists, business leaders, and political leadership predicted a recession amidst a sluggish business, declining market demand, large-scale job loss, and a shrinking real estate and share market.&nbsp; Still, the economy grew by 3.36% in fiscal year 2023/24. In fact, Nepal’s economy has grown nominally over the last two decades even when all sectors of the economy are in decline.&nbsp; Says Keshav Acharya: “The growth in trade, real estate, and the stock market are bubbles. The real economy remains stagnant.”

Nepal’s bubble economy

The final investigation report on the crash of a Saurya Airlines jet on 24 July 2024 at Kathmandu airport has revealed flaws in the carrier’s technical operation procedures, poor monitoring by the Civil Aviation Authority of Nepal (CAAN) and gaps in the airport’s emergency response. Eighteen people including a child were killed, and only the captain survived as the plane plunged seconds after takeoff, crashing within the airport perimeter. This was the latest in a series of aircraft accidents in previous years, and further tarnished Nepal’s already poor aviation safety record and contributed to the country being retained in the EU’s air safety list. &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; The circumstances in the Saurya crash were different from the Yeti Airlines crash in Pokhara in January 2022 that killed all 72 on board, and two Tara Air crashes in February 2016 and May 2022 on approach to Jomsom that together claimed 45 lives. However, all four tragedies were a result of negligence of carriers and crew, failure to follow procedures, regulatory slackness, and overconfidence. The Saurya crash, especially, was a glaring example of how an ailing airline broke its own rules to allow passengers, including non-employees, a joy ride to Pokhara on a maintenance ferry flight. CRASH REPORT The Final Investigation Report prepared by the Aircraft Accident Investigation Commission and released on the first anniversary of the crash last week carried a long list of rules that were ignored or broken, and of regulatory failure. The first mistake was to cram spares, tools and inflammable chemicals needed for the aircraft’s C-Check in Pokhara into the cargo hold flouting its own ground handling procedures.&nbsp; There was no check-in of passengers, some of whom were not even employees – even though regulations say only flight and maintenance crew should be on board a maintenance positioning flight. Many brought their own luggage into the plane and stored it unsecured in the cabin. There was no flight attendant to give a safety briefing to passengers. The load and trim charts given to the flight crew were rough estimates, and the total takeoff weight of the plane was 18,300kg plus or minus 200 kg. That would still have been all right, but there was a glaring mistake in the speedchart Saurya pilots were using to calculate the minimum takeoff speed (known as VR), and it had been wrong ever since the 21-year-old aircraft entered service with the airline in 2017. FAULTY DATA&nbsp; The Commission probed Flight Data Recorder inputs from previous takeoffs of the Canadian-built CRJ200-LR in 2023-2024 and found that the undetected error in the speedchart had caused the plane to pitch up at an abnormal rotation rate at least 18 times on previous takeoffs.&nbsp; Any rotation rate more than 3°/sec is regarded as unusual. But on at least two occasions, this aircraft with tail number 9N-AME had rotation rates of 5.8°/sec and 5.5°/sec, the second one was when the pilot who survived was flying in March 2024.&nbsp; On this particular day, the plane’s rotation rate was 6.5°/sec, causing it to go into a deep stall soon after takeoff, the Commission report said. Essentially, the plane was not flying fast enough down the runway to take off safely.&nbsp; It is not yet clear whether excess weight, unsecured luggage, wrong centre of gravity were also factors, but relying on a faulty speedchart for the given takeoff weight, the captain flying pulled back on the yoke before the plane had reached takeoff speed and at a pitch angle that was too steep. The investigation report says the plane then went into a deep stall and started banking right with the stick shaking. At this point, the flight officer on the right hand seat is heard on the cockpit voice recorder saying: “Whoa, whoa, whoa. Sir, Sir, Sir…” It then banked left before the pilot flying turned the plane sharply to the right again in an evasive action to avoid the parking aprons of the international and domestic terminals. Had he not done so, there would have been a disaster of a much greater magnitude at Kathmandu airport that day. The plane scraped the runway with its right wingtip, collided with a container having helicopter spare parts, and plunged into a gully east of the runway, exploding in a fireball. The investigation also noted that the impact forces seemed to be survivable for some occupants. The fire trucks took unnecessarily long to reach the site even though it was inside the airport perimeter. The absence of an ICAO-standard runway strip, inadequate rescue drills, lack of training, and a blocked emergency service gate leading to the crash site were cited as other factors. &nbsp;&nbsp; <h2>Timestamp of a Disaster</h2>  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110724_39cdd04693994ce6e55a5b302905c0fa4884fe85bed21ff0779bb1439f3a5725.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20250731110724_39cdd04693994ce6e55a5b302905c0fa4884fe85bed21ff0779bb1439f3a5725" data-rendition-name="original" width="778" height="826" loading="lazy" alt="Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy NT"> </figure>  11:10:34 - The Saurya Airlines CRJ200 on the takeoff roll from runway 02. It had a takeoff weight of about 18,300kg, but the pilot’s speedcard had a previously undetected mistake about the minimum takeoff speed. 11:10:55 -The plane with tail number 9N-AME goes into deep stall soon after takeoff because it does not have enough speed to lift its weight. The plane also has an abnormally steep nose-up attitude.&nbsp; 11:11:03 - Without enough speed to generate lift, the plane banks right, then left and right again in CCTV photos taken from the domestic apron (below). If it had not banked right, it could have hit the aprons and terminal buildings. Seen parked is Saurya’s other CRJ200 with tail number 9N-ANM.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110732_608132f7225c649125cca2691dd6a6bf930984c5b359e888d7ad9e5eacce3afd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20250731110732_608132f7225c649125cca2691dd6a6bf930984c5b359e888d7ad9e5eacce3afd" data-rendition-name="original" width="770" height="555" loading="lazy" alt="Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy NT"> </figure>  11:11:08 - The plane scrapes the runway with its right wingtip, and falls into the gully. The captain is thrown off the left side of the cockpit and survives. 11:11:15: Plane explodes in a fireball inside the airport perimeter. Firefighters take time to reach the site because of lack of access road and a blocked gate. Read the full investigation report <a href="https://www.tourism.gov.np/files/9N-AME%20AIC%20Final%20Report.pdf">here</a>.

Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy

French citizen Louis arrived in Nepal for the first time earlier this year, planning to <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/the-abcs-of-a-winter-trek-in-nepal">trek the Annapurna Circuit </a>before heading down to Bardia to hopefully catch a glimpse of some<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-counting-its-tigers"> tigers</a>. Before he began his journey from Besisahar, Louis (who only revealed his first name) had imagined breathing crisp mountain air, and following the melodious gurgle of the Marsyangdi.&nbsp; Instead, he had to breathe fumes and dust all the way to Chame. Louis says he masked his face with a handkerchief: “It was not what I expected, this is not right.”  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025080304080_f03fce1527cf8a63178e4e82589a1a7096c8cfa28893ca4a5f7fe82d91a6e38a.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="2025080304080_f03fce1527cf8a63178e4e82589a1a7096c8cfa28893ca4a5f7fe82d91a6e38a" data-rendition-name="original" width="2419" height="1814" loading="lazy" alt="Manang trails NT 1"> </figure>  Many other trekkers are similarly disappointed as roads have been built along what used to be <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/a-walk-back-in-time-chandragiri-hatiban">walking trails</a>. Manang and Humla are the last remote regions in the Himalaya to be connected to the national road network. &nbsp;Construction of the 87km Besisahar-Manang road began in 1994, but was stalled during <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/14-years-after-conflict-no-closure-in-nepal">the Maoist conflic</a>t, and finally finished in 2012.&nbsp; Most of it has not yet been blacktopped, and sections have been carved out of vertical cliff faces, making them treacherous. But it has allowed road access to Manang, a journey that previously took a week on foot.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025080304084_32b3ca875a0df9f1dd42dbe915e6f6a2cd4f2e53f1cf2d3ee5cbdb3435905000.jpg" data-media-id="editor_5" data-image-id="2025080304084_32b3ca875a0df9f1dd42dbe915e6f6a2cd4f2e53f1cf2d3ee5cbdb3435905000" data-rendition-name="original" width="2400" height="1505" loading="lazy" alt="Manang trails NT 1"> </figure>  While the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/the-road-out-of-nepal">road has improved access</a>, it has impacted on<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/trekking-in-the-time-of-climate-change"> trekking tourism </a>— the mainstay of Manang’s economy. The number of tourists visiting the scenic valley behind the Annapurnas grew from 21,245 in 2023 to 30,866 in 2024. The Annapurna Circuit is known for unique sights like <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=9194">Tilicho</a>, one of the highest lakes in the world, the Thorong La pass that connects Manang to Mustang, and the valley’s own rich cultural heritage. Thorong La at 5,416m is the highest hiking pass in the world, and was used by locals for trade with Mustang before it became a <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/comment/lift-restrictions-on-upper-mustang">popular trekking route</a>. &nbsp; “For guests, the excitement of reaching Thorong La is now overshadowed by their disappointment of having to journey through dusty roads to get there,” says Manang lodge-owner Ongma Gurung. “That is the complaint we get the most.” <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/tourism-that-treads-lightly-on-the-land">Local tourism </a>operators are trying to get the government to build alternative foot trails. But there have been delays due to a lack of budget.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025080304084_c5f76e398182785bb17846a148e3ca89de5687b4623580f8e2d725a7a287edfa.jpg" data-media-id="editor_11" data-image-id="2025080304084_c5f76e398182785bb17846a148e3ca89de5687b4623580f8e2d725a7a287edfa" data-rendition-name="original" width="2419" height="1762" loading="lazy" alt="Manang trails"> </figure>  The Naso Rural Municipality has identified other routes along the Annapurna Circuit in Chyamche, Tal, and Khotro so trekkers can bypass heavy vehicles involved in the construction of the Manang-Marsyangdi Hydropower Project. “But the local government cannot do everything,” admits the chair Dhan Bahadur Gurung. “And for leaders in Kathmandu, Manang is out of sight and out of mind.” Munindra Jung Gurung represents Manang in the Gandaki Provincial Assembly, and says he has raised the issue in <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/pokhara-s-tourism-woes">Pokhara</a>. He is hopeful there will be a hearing. To be sure, the road is not all bad news. Locals benefit, the number of visitors has grown, and trekkers can now also save time and use it to explore <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=5960">side valleys in Manang</a>, visiting the villages like Nar and Phu. Annapurna Conservation Area (ACA) chief Rabin Kadariya concedes that the road to Upper Manang was crucial to connect the remote region with the rest of Nepal, but adds: “We have built an alternative trail connecting Talgaun, and we will consult local communities about their priorities on other hiking trails.”&nbsp;