<figure><img width="400" height="267" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110912118/636b8acb9c7e80680e06b25fjpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Four Mahottari prison inmates watch television in the room also used for worship. Photo: KIRAN PANDAY/Nepali Times Archive</figcaption></figure>Even before the current coronavirus scare, Nepal’s overcrowded prisons were hotbeds for infectious diseases like tuberculosis, typhoid and influenza. But public health experts fear that the ease of spread of COVID-19 through breathing and touch could make Nepal’s jails incubators for the virus.There have been many studies of <a href="https://www.unafei.or.jp/publications/pdf/RS_No80/No80_13PA_Upadhyaya.pdf" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.unafei.or.jp/publications/pdf/RS_No80/No80_13PA_Upadhyaya.pdf&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1586411848269000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEOGN3iUvhfW-wCzLrlZoihLVDcTg">crowded living conditions</a>, hygiene and violence in Nepal’s prisons, and a coronavirus outbreak there could affect the health of detainees, security staff and through them spread to the general population.<a style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/prisons-can-be-incubators-for-covid-19/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Prisons can be incubators for COVID-19,</a> Nepali Times“Our prison infrastructure is not properly managed, as a result inmates have to be kept in crammed up places,” admits Sharmila Kumari Sharma, Senior Auxiliary Health Worker at Dilli Bazar prison. “We have regular awareness programs on washing hands and maintaining physical separation, but implementation is difficult. It is so crowded here that even maintaining 1.5m distance is not possible.” The World Health Organization (WHO) has published <a href="http://www.euro.who.int/en/health-topics/health-determinants/prisons-and-health/news/news/2020/3/preventing-covid-19-outbreak-in-prisons-a-challenging-but-essential-task-for-authorities" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://www.euro.who.int/en/health-topics/health-determinants/prisons-and-health/news/news/2020/3/preventing-covid-19-outbreak-in-prisons-a-challenging-but-essential-task-for-authorities&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1586411848269000&amp;usg=AFQjCNHyHYu6ntPVhmYSxWdNZc-GfiTgAA">guidelines</a> for preventing and managing the cases of COVID-19 in prisons and detention centres. According to the latest <a href="https://www.dopm.gov.np/uploads/files/falgunmaskebari076%20(version%201)%20-org2.pdf" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.dopm.gov.np/uploads/files/falgunmaskebari076%2520(version%25201)%2520-org2.pdf&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1586411848269000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEMlXqE9s0CBDU_uFJ4Il2wQh_KAw">report</a> of the Department of Prison Management (DOPM), there are 24,512 prisoners in Nepal’s jails -- 1,528 of them women, 1,281 foreigners and 91 are dependents. There are 8 juvenile correction centers in Nepal with 847 boys and 23 girls.<a style="font-size: 15px; letter-spacing: 0.01em;" href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/charles-shobraj-out-of-lockup-during-lockdown/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Charles Shobraj out of lockup during lockdown?</a>, Deepak Kharel“Given that COVID-19 thrives on social contact, having crowded jails with people coming in and out is likely to promote transmission into jails, transmission within jails and  'spillover' of infections out of the jails into the community,” says Columbia University epidemiology professor <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/prisons-can-be-incubators-for-covid-19/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/prisons-can-be-incubators-for-covid-19/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1586411848269000&amp;usg=AFQjCNEzapjwrlthuL-q32XJAonGxqAgjA">Barun Mathema in an email interview with Nepali Times</a> this week. Even within jails and detention centers it is important to identify the medically vulnerable people, those with chronic conditions like <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=13002" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id%3D13002&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1586411848269000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGrsWVNSjsVyxrcHwF05diXURaoaQ">HIV</a>/AIDS respiratory illnesses and cancer. Individuals with these co-morbid conditions may be predisposed to poor COVID-19 clinical outcomes. Studies have shown that reducing the number of inmates would lessen the pressure on prisons. Releasing medically vulnerable, nonviolent offenders and people towards the end of their sentence could free up some space in the prisons, and would help in general mitigation goal of slowing the spread of the disease if there is an outbreak. In addition, use of bail, speedy trials, early release and community service could aid in resolving the issue of overcrowding in the prisons and unsanitary conditions – problem that predate who COVID-19. <figure><img width="640" height="320" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110912118/636b8acd9c7e80680e06b260jpeg.jpg" alt=""><figcaption> </figcaption></figure>In fact, the DOPM wrote a <a href="https://www.dopm.gov.np/uploads/files/covid-19%20nirdesan%20076-12-09.jpeg" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.dopm.gov.np/uploads/files/covid-19%2520nirdesan%2520076-12-09.jpeg&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1586411848269000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGoq27Ml8euVobHPkrgT8p7qimfmA">letter</a> to the Ministry of Home Affairs stating the need for personal protective equipment (PPE), thermal gun, mask, glove, sanitiser and testing kit in prisons and juvenile correction centers. Hospitals in Nepal are in <a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/protecting-those-who-protect-us-from-the-epidemic/" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.nepalitimes.com/here-now/protecting-those-who-protect-us-from-the-epidemic/&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1586411848269000&amp;usg=AFQjCNF3z5GZG-8DUsul-vzoutJuUQ2c-g">shortage</a> of PPEs and other protective gear, and it seems that for the overstretched government the prison system has the last priority. Unsanitary living conditions in the prisons make the facilities even more vulnerable. The Office of Attorney General (OAG) worked on the provisions to reduce the number of prisoners and inmates in juvenile detention centers. Depending on the gravitas of the crime, the concerned authority and the police may release a person from custody. Legally, if the police or adjudicating authority decide it is not necessary to keep a person in detention during the course of an investigation, they may release them on guarantee or bail or recognisance to appear on the given date. Says advocate Rabindra Bhattarai: “It is possible to reduce the reduce the number of prisoners in Nepal by one-third from 22,000 to about 7,000, this would make prisoner management and budget easier, as well as reduce the risk of a coronavirus spread.”The Supreme Court responded positively to a move by Attorney General Agni Kharel to release 13 elderly prisoners in Nepal’s jails and sent the file to the Home Ministry, among them the French-Vietnamese serial killer Charles Shobraj. The Court also decided to exercise the power of case diversion in accordance with the Act Relating to Children-2018 so that juvenile delinquents can be released on recognisance to appear when called by the court on the guarantee of their parent/guardian. The decision to pardon or suspend the jail sentence by the OAG is a win-win situation, legal experts say. It would reduce the load on prison management which would, in turn, minimise the risk of COVID-19. However, many inmates are in the prison because they do not have money to pay for bail, and some are not able to pay the fine. “It is up to the Home Ministry to make the final decision, but we are sending the list to them,” said the director general of the Jail Administration Department, Pradip Raj Kandel. However, there are a lot of questions before the elderly, juveniles or those jailed for non-violent crime are released on bail. How will the inmates or their families get the jail money, how with the district court hearing take place in a lockdown?

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Nepal’s prisons need to be depopulated

<img width="782" height="512" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110912118/636b8aae9c7e80680e06b254jpeg.jpg" alt=""/>Nepali Times spoke to Barun Mathema, professor of epidemiology at the Mailman School of Public Health at Columbia University in New York about how the COVID-19 pandemic will affect prisons. He was recently on the <a href="https://www.facebook.com/cnn/videos/vb.5550296508/226123838751517/?type=2&amp;theater" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.facebook.com/cnn/videos/vb.5550296508/226123838751517/?type%3D2%26theater&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1586343755174000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGi6UJyyN6-u3mKXwecTMbIgCwAOw">Michael Smercornish show on CNN</a> to warn that jails can incubate infections. Nepali Times: How serious is the danger of coronavirus or other infections spreading out of prisons into the general population?  Barun Mathema: For detainees under trail for longer term sentencing I would say we need to guided by two principles: 1) as a society we are obligated to protect detainees (in jails or prisons); 2) likewise, we should take actions to reduce risk to the surrounding communities. Given that COVID-19 thrives on social contact, having crowded jails with people coming in and out is likely to promote transmission into jails, transmission within jails and 'spillover' of infections out of the jails into the community. There are many bridge populations, i.e. jail staff, detainees and visiting members of the community, for example family, that can transport the virus into or out of the jails. Also a very important consideration is that there is likely a sizable population that have a variety of co-morbid conditions that predispose poor/bad COVID-19 clinical outcomes.So, in my opinion, we need to figure out way to lessen the load of inmates in jails (and prisons) that would require us to restrict or lessen numbers going into jails and prisons and release those in jails responsibly and safely. The criminal justice system should at least consider: i) dropping charges on low-level crimes, ii) relax charging low level offenses in the first place, and 3) release detainees who are the most vulnerable (aging or those with serious co-morbidity). All of this must of course be done safely, ethically and responsibly.The result will likely help lift some pressure within the jails, reducing the risk of outbreaks and potential spillover into the community ... in addition this will likely help in our general mitigation goal of flattening the curve.Read also:<a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=13002#.XoxhTsgzbIU">Unsafe in prison</a>, Himal Khabarpatrika<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepalis-trapped-down-under/">Nepal trapped Down Under</a>, Upasana Khadka<a href="https://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/lockdown-and-the-surge-in-domestic-violence/">Lockdown and the surge in domestic violence</a>, Suvexa Pradhan TuladhaYour research is mainly on the spread of tuberculosis in Brazil’s jails. But what is your view on the probable immune-enhancing property of the BCG vaccine?I work primarily on tuberculosis, anti-microbial resistance in tuberculosis and in other bacterial pathogens. BCG vaccination is one of the most widely used vaccines in the world. Although role of BCG in preventing TB has been heavily debated over the decades, BCG vaccination is thought to prevent against severe forms of childhood TB. BCG induces a potent immune response (in fact reasons why it is also used for Bladder Cancer therapy). Previous studies have shown that BCG vaccination of infants reduces all-cause mortality, and a considerable amount of infant mortality is due to respiratory and enteric viral infections. Therefore, it is plausible that BCG may induce protective immune response against viral respiratory pathogens such as SARS-CoV2. If this is the case, we do not know the extent or how long this protective immune response would last. My guess is that it will be short term - which would be great at, for example, protecting health care workers. We would need a properly controlled clinical trials for example randomised clinical trials, to demonstrate benefit of BCG vaccination in protecting against SARS-CoV2 - such a trial is underway.How did you develop an interest in epidemiology and especially on anti-microbial resistance?I have always been interested in how things work in the real world. Of course, I quickly learned that the real world is quite complex to understand and certainly too simplistic using just one type of lens. Epidemiology, as a discipline, offered a framework to integrate both macro and micro level processes at play and thus was very attractive.My interest in TB stems from the history of the disease in society, arts, and science. It is one of the oldest diseases that is really part of our social and historical DNA - virtually everywhere in the world. This is the number one killer (due to an infectious agent) in the world with nearly 4,000 deaths a day. Controlling TB, including in places like Nepal, has been challenging and very humbling. Studying TB is really a study of biology, history and society. This disease has really eluded scientists since its discovery in 1882. There is so much we should know about this disease, but just do not.In my own research, I consider myself a student of evolution. Evolution, of course, is continual a process that cannot be stopped but is rarely so visible in our day to day. AMR is a case and point for evolution. Its emergence is fascinating from a biologic perspective and the consequences quite devastating from a human health perspective. This interface has drawn me to study AMR in TB as well as other bacterial pathogens.Any comments on the way Nepal has been handling the pandemic so far?I do not think I know enough to answer this question fairly. It is surprising that there are such few confirmed cases ... likely a consequence of testing.

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"Prisons can be incubators for COVID-19"

<figure><img width="1300" height="872" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110911110/636b7a329c7e80680e064747jpeg.jpg" alt=""/><figcaption>Charles Shobraj (right) poses for a photo in March 2018 after his successful heart surgery at a hospital in Kathmandu. Raamesh Koirala, the surgeon operated on Shobraj and shared this photo on Twitter and wrote: "Yes, he has a heart and I just fixed valves inside'. Photo: RAAMESH KOIRALA/TWITTER</figcaption></figure>Among a list of 13 elderly prisoners that Nepal’s jail administration has moved forward is one name that has taken everyone by surprise: Charles Shobraj. It looks like Nepal’s COVID-19 lockdown will see Shobraj freed from lockup after 16 years in jail in Nepal.If it goes through, the 75-year-old French-Indian-Vietnamese serial killer accused of leaving a trail of at least 12 murders across Asia in the 1970s, and imprisoned at least three times, will be released from Kathmandu’s Central Jail.On 20 March Nepal’s Supreme Court responded positively to a move by Attorney General Agni Kharel and sent the file to the Home Ministry to release 13 elderly prisoners. Central Jail’s Laxmi Baskota confirmed that Shobraj’s name is on the list. If the Home Ministry approves the release of all the prisoners, the man named as The Serpent may soon be free.“It is up to the Home Ministry to make the final decision, but we are sending the list to them,” said the director general of the Jail Administration Department, Pradip Raj Kandel.Attorney General Kharel has cited a 2015 law that senior citizens who are serving jail time could be released. Shobhraj had got his lawyer Shakuntala Thapa to file a case in the Supreme Court asking for his release citing that law. However, the law only says that prisoners between 70-75 can have their sentences reduced by 50%, and it is applicable only to Nepali citizens. Two years ago, the Appeals Court had issued the government a show cause notice asking why Shobhraj should continue to be in jail. In 2015, the Bhaktapur District Court had sentenced Shobhraj to life imprisonment for the murder of a Canadian and American tourist. Shobraj’s lawyers then filed an appeal.In 1975 police found the body of a woman with her face burnt in a ditch by the Arnico Highway in Bhaktapur. Three days later, they found the naked and half-burnt body of another Caucasian woman. The two were identified as Canadian, Laurent Carrière, and an American, Connie Bronzich.Shobraj was born in Saigon in 1944 to an Indian father and a Vietnamese mother and later became a French citizen. In the 1970s, at the height of the hippie era, he roamed across the Asian backpacker circuit allegedly robbing and killing at least 12 unsuspecting budget travellers for which he was nicknamed ‘The Bikini Killer’, or ‘The Serpent’. Among his victims in Nepal were the two young tourists, an American and Canadian, who were killed in 1975. <img width="404" height="482" src="https://superdesk-pro-c.s3.amazonaws.com/sd-nepalitimes/2022110911110/636b7a359c7e80680e064748jpeg.jpg" alt="">He was caught in India for a series of murders there, and was imprisoned in Delhi’s Tihar Jail. But he managed to escape in 1986 after spiking the drinks of his guards, and was caught again in Goa and sent back to jail to be set free in 1997 after serving his term.Shobraj came to Nepal in 2003 where he thought he would be more anonymous, but one night he was recognised by a reporter of The Himalayan Times in a Thamel bar and the paper carried an expose about him. Police quickly arrested him and charged him in Bhaktapur for the murder of the American and Canadian backpackers in 1975.A Netflix/BBC eight-part series titled <a href="https://www.noted.co.nz/currently/currently-crime/the-serpent-charles-sobhraj-my-encounter-with-serial-killer" target="_blank" rel="noopener" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.noted.co.nz/currently/currently-crime/the-serpent-charles-sobhraj-my-encounter-with-serial-killer&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1585412478082000&amp;usg=AFQjCNFqUa_a8EuQko9n6o9QiDWcGBYcVw">The Serpent</a> is supposed to be released this year. It recounts Shobraj’s rampage across Pakistan, India, Nepal and Pakistan where he robbed and travelled with the passport of his victims.Shobhraj was tried and has been imprisoned in the Central Jail in Kathmandu for the past 16 years, from where he is alleged to have tried to get a contract killer to murder a businessman inmate. He also married his Nepali lawyer’s 24-year-old daughter in a jail ceremony when he himself was 70.Two years ago, he got a heart bypass surgery performed by Nepali surgeon Raamesh Koirala in a Kathmandu hospital. Koirala later tweeted a photograph of himself with Shobraj and said: 'Yes, he has a heart and I just fixed the valves inside.'Shobhraj filed a case for release because by Nepali law prisoners can be released after they turn 70. But the release had been snagged until the coronavirus pandemic swept the world, and put the whole of Nepal in a lockdown this week. Read also: <a href="http://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=1871#.Xn4owC2B3-Z" target="_blank" rel="noopener">"I can win"</a>, Exclusive interview in Nepali Times with Charles Shobraj

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Charles Shobraj out of lockup during lockdown?

India and Pakistan are twins separated at birth. Tensions between them have been at a hair trigger ever since independence and has erupted into full scale conflict at least four times in the past 80 years.
The 22 April terrorist attack in Kashmir that killed 25 Indian tourists and a Nepali citizen, threatens to escalate tension between the two nuclear-armed nations. India has squarely blamed Pakistan for the attacks, and Prime Minister Narendra Modi has given his military “operational freedom” to respond. Pakistan has said it has credible intelligence of an Indian military strike and its officials have promised a “full spectrum” response — a code for a <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/thinking-the-thinkable">nuclear retaliation</a>.
For Nepal, the killing of its national in the Pahalgam attack comes as another stark reminder that in conflicts from Afghanistan to Iraq, from <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/how-to-agree-an-armistice-in-ukraine">Ukraine</a> to Israel, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/10-nepalis-from-one-town-fighting-in-ukraine">Nepalis are getting caught in the crossfire</a>. The last time full-scale fighting broke out between <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/peacemongers-at-india-pakistan-border">India and Pakistan</a> on Kargil in 1999, at least 22<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/india-s-trial-by-fire-for-soldiers-from-nepal?%27%5C%22="> Nepalis fighting for the Indian Army</a> were killed in action.
Three of Nepal’s immediate neighbours (China, India, Pakistan) have nuclear weapons, and they do not have good relations. With China supplying weapons, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/war-and-warming">missile technology</a> and other support to Pakistan, this triangular friction could set off a regional conflagration.&nbsp;
<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-022-00573-0" target="_blank">Research at Rutgers University</a> has calculated that even a week-long tactical nuclear exchange between India and Pakistan would throw up so much smoke and debris into the atmosphere that it would block out the sun for years, and lead to a collapse of the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/grow-nourish-sustain-together-world-food-day">global food system</a>. This does not take into account the radioactive fallout that prevailing winds would blow up to <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/lives-on-the-line-in-the-himalaya">the Himalaya</a>, contaminating glaciers that are the sources of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/saving-what-is-left-of-himalayan-rivers">Asia’s main rivers</a>.
The impact of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/climate-breakdown-linked-to-thame-flood">climate breakdown </a>on High Asia was already ringing alarm bells about its <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/himalayan-icecap-melting-faster-than-thought">shrinking ice cap</a> reducing the dry season flow of water downstream. Water was going to be the next strategic commodity, geopolitical experts warned, and the next wars in Asia would be over water.
That water war is already happening. India retaliated to the Kashmir attack by suspending the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/24/world/asia/india-pakistan-indus-waters-treaty.html" target="_blank">Indus Waters Treaty</a> of 1960 mediated by the World Bank that has withstood at least three wars between India and Pakistan. The treaty gives India control over the three eastern tributaries of the Indus (<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beas_River" target="_blank">Beas</a>, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ravi_River" target="_blank">Ravi</a> and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sutlej" target="_blank">Sutlej</a>), while Pakistan got water from the Indus and two of its western tributaries (<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indus_River" target="_blank">Indus</a>, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chenab_River" target="_blank">Chenab</a> and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jhelum_River" target="_blank">Jhelum</a>.
Pakistan was assured of 70% of the annual flow, and India could use a reasonable amount of water for<a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=15231"> irrigation and hydropower</a>. &nbsp;Within days of its threat, India stopped water flowing down to Pakistan from the Chenab river and is reportedly preparing to do the same on the Jhelum.
The sabre-rattling has reached a crescendo. Besides threats and counter-threats there are also symbolic drills, with the Indian Air Force practicing landing on an expressway in Uttar Pradesh by its Rafale, Su-30 and Jaguar fighter jets to demonstrate ‘operational readiness’. In response Pakistan test-fired its Abdali ballistic missile that can carry a nuclear warhead and has a range of 450km.&nbsp;
The danger is that with ultra-nationalist rhetoric and the beating the war drums by both sides, India’s government and Pakistan’s military may have to ‘do something’ to appease domestic public opinion. But any tactical strike, an artillery exchange, or territorial incursion could quickly escalate out of control.
Expecting an Indian retaliation for the Pahalgam killings, Pakistan is using<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/interfaith-collaboration-for-nuclear-disarmament"> nuclear deterrence </a>and warning of “catastrophic consequences”. The two neighbours came close to a nuclear exchange in 2019 after an attack on the Indian military in Kashmir, and prompt international intervention led by the United States cooled tensions.&nbsp;
This time, the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/trump-shock-wave-hits-nepal">Trump administration</a> is too distracted and not as engaged. Pakistan has denied it was responsible for the terrorist attack and called on Washington to stop a possible Indian retaliation. India and Pakistan have stopped overflights by each other’s airlines, and some international carriers have even stopped flying over Pakistan fearing an air war.
Washington, Beijing, the UN and the EU have all urged restraint. Iran, which has good relations with both India and Pakistan has sent its foreign minister to urge both countries not to go into a tit-for-tat war. Iran has its own nuclear flashpoint to worry about with tensions in Israel, &nbsp;Yemen and Syria.
India and Pakistan both share similar problems of joblessness, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/why-nepal-s-poverty-rate-is-stuck">poverty </a>and <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/climate-change-new-threat-to-nepal-s-rhinos">environmental threats</a>. Neither side needs the threat of a senseless war, and we in the neighbourhood do not need it either.&nbsp;
Kunda Dixit
This Editorial is brought to you by <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/" target="_blank">Nepali Times</a>, in collaboration with <a href="https://inpsjapan.com/en/" target="_blank">INPS Japan</a> and <a href="https://sgi-peace.org/" target="_blank">Soka Gakkai International</a>, in consultative status with UN ECOSOC.

Nukes in the neighbourhood

The streets of Patan are alive this month with lavender jacaranda trees under rain-washed skies as <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/the-red-god-rises-again-in-patan">the chariot of Rato Matsyendranath</a> is pulled across town. This is the festival of the rain god, and inevitably the heavens opened up and pre-monsoon showers pelted the chariot as it started being pulled in Pulchok last week. Thousands of devotees, onlookers and the chariot procession organisers thronged the streets on the first day last week. The rhythmic cymbals and drums exuded a vibrant energy as the enormous four wheels turned and the chariot lurched.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025051007050_81df97744db16f732a419dc1f1579d235ce3df37642b078f50b83bd4bd026688.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="2025051007050_81df97744db16f732a419dc1f1579d235ce3df37642b078f50b83bd4bd026688" data-rendition-name="original" width="1000" height="1503" loading="lazy" alt="Divine chariot"> </figure>  The<a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/Red-rain-god,3141"> red rain god</a> has Hindu and Buddhist antecedents, alternatively called Bungadya and<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/kathmandu-s-gravity-defying-chariot-festival"> Karunamaya</a> — reflecting Kathmandu Valley’s syncretic mixture of the two religions.&nbsp; “Bungadya is a profoundly <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/12-full-opinion/marketing-the-intangible">intangible form of heritage</a>,” explains heritage expert Monalisa Maharjan. “It embodies traditional knowledge,<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/multimedia/reviving-nepal-s-craft"> artisanal skills passed down through generations</a>. Local communities and specific families have specified roles in being custodians of the heritage, ensuring their survival over the centuries.” There are many legends and stories about this annual tradition. Lichhavi king Narendra Dev is supposed to have brought Rato Matsyendranath from Assam to Kathmandu Valley to convince Guru Gorakhnath to lift a spell that created a two-year drought in Kathmandu.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250510050520_347a9a398f8a9abc4a7fb4e2774fde8264cccbdce8bdab23851ab3f0e73c3e8a.jpg" data-media-id="editor_6" data-image-id="20250510050520_347a9a398f8a9abc4a7fb4e2774fde8264cccbdce8bdab23851ab3f0e73c3e8a" data-rendition-name="original" width="1503" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Divine chariot"> </figure>  Matsyendranath was Gorakhnath’s mentor, and upon seeing him, the serpents were released, unleashing the rains. The chariot festival honours the return of this life-giving rain. The deity is seen as an icon for thriving agriculture, t<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/before-the-next-monsoon">he arrival of monsoon</a> showers, and the welfare of the community. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/the-reign-of-the-god-of-rain">The reign of the god of rain</a>, Vidhu Prakash Kayastha Till this day, the Rato Matsyendranath festival is no ordinary celebration. Patan does not sleep for a month as the chariot is pulled through various neighbourhoods. It unfolds at a state level with the president (formerly the king) attending the climax of the Bhoto Jatra in Jawalakhel later this month.&nbsp; The intergenerational transmission of tradition is unique in the world, and the reason the festival is one of the most vibrant cultural expressions that thrives despite inroads of modernity. The other unique aspect is that it is a transnational festival, binding Patan with Guwahati in the Indian state of Assam.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025051005058_8bc685ada13045d863b28e3eed91c931da2b510714586af6fd7eb5d1e298a24a.jpg" data-media-id="editor_9" data-image-id="2025051005058_8bc685ada13045d863b28e3eed91c931da2b510714586af6fd7eb5d1e298a24a" data-rendition-name="original" width="1000" height="1503" loading="lazy" alt="Divine chariot"> </figure>  “Unlike Nepal, where the deity commands grandeur and devotion, many in Assam are unaware of Rato Matsyendranath,” says Khagen Sharma of Gauhati University, which convened <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-assam-connection-revived">a symposium in February in Guwahati on the rain god</a>. Attending was a delegation led by Lalitpur Mayor Chiribabu Maharjan, organisers of the festival, and builders of the chariot. After the symposium, a committee was formed to explore and revive the tradition in Assam as well. Although the team had planned to visit Nepal this month, logistical challenges delayed the trip. Still, there are plans to build a Guru Matsyendranath statue in Assam to reestablish regular worship practices in the Guwahati shrine.&nbsp; The vines used to build the chariot in Patan are sourced from the jungles of Assam. But Sharma notes that in recent years unclear regulations have blocked the official import of the vines, although they are still brought to Nepal informally. The <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/Nepali-Times-Buzz/makers-of-machhindranath,2204">chariot making</a> has also had a taste of modernisation in recent times. In the past, even a single nail or piece of steel was avoided. But over time, the wooden structure, particularly the shaft between the wheels, has been replaced with bronze. When that too proved unstable, metal clamps were introduced, which have become a pragmatic compromise.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250510050524_b2a819a5791612f14c81d30fc393dbd3f99f0c64b90a9110e8b0855d944bfa93.jpg" data-media-id="editor_12" data-image-id="20250510050524_b2a819a5791612f14c81d30fc393dbd3f99f0c64b90a9110e8b0855d944bfa93" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="998" loading="lazy" alt="Divine chariot"> </figure>  Another welcome change is the focus on safety. Builders climbing the chariot’s tower now wear harnesses and there are efforts in crowd control. The most visible change in recent years has been the involvement of Patan’s enthusiastic youth in the festival — the tradition is now passing to a new generation. Says Matsyendranath expert Vidhu Kayastha: “There is more energy, the young people in red t-shirts this year were very organised, these modern touches aren’t diluting our culture, they’re keeping it alive in new forms.” He adds, “We are <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/searching-for-a-homeland-away-from-home">reconnecting with our roots</a>, we have more resources, more awareness than ever before. We must not be swept away by western values that may not serve us, and in some ways, cause more harm than good. We must revive our own culture.”&nbsp;

Divine chariot

In 2025, two seemingly disconnected acts of violence shattered the illusion of stability in the region. In March, <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/16f7f947-1e96-4206-9844-891378adc683" target="_blank">militants hijacked a passenger train</a> near the Bolan Pass in Balochistan, executing soldiers in cold blood. A month later, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/22/world/asia/kashmir-terrorist-attack.html" target="_blank">gunmen in Kashmir’s</a> Pahalgam Valley massacred tourists. 
In both Islamabad and New Delhi, <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/4/25/were-cursed-kashmiris-under-attack-across-india-after-pahalgam-killings" target="_blank">the reaction was reflexive:</a> condemn the violence, <a href="https://www.economist.com/asia/2025/04/22/india-and-pakistan-could-come-to-blows-over-kashmir" target="_blank">blame external enemies</a>, declare the situation contained. But South Asia’s leaders are not fighting terrorists alone. They are fighting the consequences of their own betrayals.
Across <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-26272897" target="_blank">Balochistan</a>, <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-south-asia-11693674" target="_blank">Kashmir</a>, <a href="https://www.crisisgroup.org/asia/south-asia/india/346-finding-way-out-festering-conflict-indias-manipur" target="_blank">Manipur</a>, and beyond, decades of <a href="https://www.amnesty.org/en/projects/enforced-disappearance-in-south-asia/" target="_blank">enforced disappearances</a>, broken promises, and brute militarisation have hollowed out the social contracts meant to hold these nations together. The grievances that drove rebellions from the 1940s through the 1990s – demands for dignity, recognition, and political agency – were never meaningfully addressed. They were buried beneath asphalt and propaganda, paved over by development projects and security checkpoints.
States may claim victory. But their victories are mirages, dissolving the moment anyone looks too closely. South Asia’s unfinished wars are not relics of a violent past. They are live ammunition, loaded into the future.
<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/mar/24/he-only-wanted-revenge-the-bloody-insurgency-in-balochistan-gaining-lethal-momentum" target="_blank">Balochistan</a> has been at war with Pakistan for most of its modern history. Rich in gas, minerals, and coastline, the province has been plundered for decades under the language of national development. 
Projects like the <a href="https://eastasiaforum.org/2020/11/26/pakistans-three-evils-cpec-and-good-governance/" target="_blank">China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)</a> promise progress but deliver exclusion: minerals are mined, ports are secured, but Baloch homes are raided. 
The insurgency endures not because of foreign conspiracies, as Islamabad endlessly insists, but because the Pakistani state remains incapable of seeing its <a href="https://thebalochistanpost.net/2025/01/enforced-disappearances-in-balochistan-in-december-2024-tbp-report/" target="_blank">Baloch citizens</a> as anything other than a security problem to be managed.
In <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/ranisingh/2016/07/12/kashmir-in-the-worlds-most-militarized-zone-violence-after-years-of-comparative-calm/" target="_blank">Kashmir</a>, the Indian government claims to have <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/08/world/asia/kashmir-village-defense-committees.html" target="_blank">“normalised” the valley</a> after revoking its autonomy in 2019. It <a href="https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/conflict-between-india-and-pakistan" target="_blank">looks a lot like occupation</a>. Soldiers outnumber local leaders, dissent is criminalised, internet shutdowns suffocate public life. Tourism campaigns and investment summits cannot erase a generation raised under curfew and surveillance.
<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-66260730" target="_blank">Manipur’s descent into ethnic bloodshed</a> in 2023 exposed another fault line Delhi prefers to ignore. Long-simmering tensions between the Meitei and Kuki communities erupted into violence that shattered any illusions of northeastern integration. The central government’s delayed, politicised response made clear what many Manipuris had always suspected: they are citizens of India only when convenient.
Even the <a href="https://msf.org.au/rohingya-worlds-largest-stateless-population" target="_blank">Rohingya, stateless and exiled from Myanmar</a>, find themselves entangled in South Asia’s ethnonationalist calculus. Fleeing genocide, they are criminalised anew in Bangladesh and India – trapped between the countries that reject them and the memories that refuse to let them go.
South Asia’s states have excelled at suppressing rebellion. But failed at extinguishing the reasons rebellions rise in the first place. And the wars South Asia tries to forget at home have found new life abroad.
Across <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-06-17/modis-indian-government-accused-of-spying-silencing-critics/103974414" target="_blank">Canada, Australia, Britain, and the United States</a>, diasporic communities have become memory-keepers and, increasingly, <a href="https://www.business-standard.com/world-news/khalistan-supporters-hold-protest-outside-indian-consulate-in-vancouver-123092600087_1.html" target="_blank">the agitators</a> for the struggles their home states would rather erase.
Khalistan flags fly outside Indian consulates in Vancouver and <a href="https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/punjab/perturbed-over-waving-of-khalistani-flags-at-an-event-in-melbourne-india-warns-australia-of-khalistan-separatists-and-their-links-with-terror-groups-458320/" target="_blank">Melbourne</a>. Tamil activists march through London, demanding accountability for the <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/5/19/grim-reminder-sri-lankas-tamils-mark-15-years-since-end-of-civil-war" target="_blank">massacres in Mullivaikkal</a>. Kashmiri protests in Washington and New York refuse to let India’s crackdown slip into diplomatic amnesia.
For host countries, these movements pose uncomfortable questions. Freedom of expression collides with fears of extremism. Clashes erupt between communities carrying wounds that their new homelands.
Meanwhile, South Asian states pursue their adversaries across borders. India faces allegations of <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/canada-says-india-home-minister-ordered-campaign-against-sikh-activist-rcna177972" target="_blank">targeting Sikh activists for assassination in Canada</a> and the <a href="https://www.npr.org/2024/10/27/g-s1-29561/sikh-separatist-assassination-india" target="_blank">United States</a>. Pakistan continues to court Kashmiri separatists abroad while crushing Baloch dissent at home. <a href="https://apnews.com/article/sri-lanka-tamils-civil-war-dead-5b372b0bba567837c5a4d94250040e7d" target="_blank">Sri Lanka</a> lobbies furiously to brand Tamil diaspora organisations as fronts for terrorism, even as it stonewalls investigations into its own wartime atrocities.
The old insurgencies have not been defeated. They have been globalised. South Asia’s governments have long mistaken silence for stability.
In Punjab, India broke the back of the <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/06/india/india-canada-sikh-khalistan-analysis-intl-hnk/index.html" target="_blank">Khalistan insurgency</a> through brute force. The fields grew green again, the trains ran on time. But the wounds were never closed, the <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/why-is-indias-khalistan-separatist-movement-on-the-rise/a-65081729" target="_blank">movement’s heart beats</a> not in Amritsar but in Brampton and Surrey.
In Sri Lanka, the <a href="https://www.academia.edu/4738983/The_Man_Who_Destroyed_Eelam" target="_blank">military crushed the Tamil Tigers</a> with <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2011/01/17/death-of-the-tiger" target="_blank">overwhelming brutality in 2009</a>. <a href="https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3264148/we-want-our-children-back-sri-lankan-families-still-demanding-justice-their-missing-loved-ones" target="_blank">Tamil families still search for their missing</a>, still mourn their dead – and still organise across the diaspora for justice that remains undelivered.
In Kashmir, Delhi boasts of new <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2023/2/4/kashmir-is-bleeding-its-economy" target="_blank">highways and investment corridors</a>, showcasing the region as a trophy of unity. But when the visitors leave and the cameras are packed away, <a href="https://harvardlawreview.org/print/vol-134/from-domicile-to-dominion-indias-settler-colonial-agenda-in-kashmir/" target="_blank">the checkpoints, the raids, and the quiet despair remain.</a>
Victory parades fade. Grievance endures. Suppressing insurgency may end battles. It does not end the ideas that fueled them. In a region where <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/23/world/asia/kashmir-attack-india-pakistan.html" target="_blank">history is rarely past</a>, and memory is rarely voluntary, states that rule through repression are only ever buying time. And often, not very much.
South Asia’s unfinished wars are not accidents. They are the inevitable consequences of states that confuse conquest with consent, and erasure with reconciliation. They cannot legislate memory out of existence.
Every <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c15qyyzz89lo" target="_blank">disappeared son in Balochistan</a>, every <a href="https://medium.com/the-wvoice/the-half-widows-in-kashmir-fef80c6b88e9" target="_blank">half-widow in Kashmir</a>, every <a href="https://www.doctorswithoutborders.org/what-we-do/focus/rohingya-refugee-crisis" target="_blank">refugee child born stateless in a Rohingya camp</a> carries forward the memory of betrayal – a memory that outlives soldiers, politicians, and peace accords alike.
The region’s future will not be decided by GDP figures or infrastructure projects alone. It will be decided by whether its governments can summon the political courage to face the truths they have long suppressed – or whether they will continue down a path <a href="https://theconversation.com/india-is-using-the-g20-summit-to-further-its-settler-colonial-ambitions-in-kashmir-205166" target="_blank">where forgetting is demanded</a>, and rebellion becomes inevitable.
Shyam Tekwani is a professor at the Daniel K. Inouye Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies in Hawaii. This <a href="https://dkiapcss.edu/nexus_articles/ghosts-at-the-border-south-asias-unfinished-wars/" target="_blank">article</a> was originally published on <a href="https://dkiapcss.edu/security-nexus/" target="_blank">DKI APCSS Security Nexus.</a> The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of DKI APCSS, the Department of Defense, or the US Government. The appearance of external hyperlinks does not constitute endorsement by the United States Department of Defense (DoD) of the linked websites, or the information, products, or services contained therein. DoD does not exercise any editorial, security, or other control over the information you may find at these sites.

Balochistan to Kashmir

Most Nepalis thought they had seen the last of it after <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/11-56-25-april-2015-wkc9q2an">the 25 April 7.8 magnitude </a>earthquake ten years ago. But the Himalaya had more surprises in store. On 12 May, another 7.3 magnitude tremor that some said was an aftershock, but was strong enough to itself be a major earthquake, struck Dolakha.&nbsp; Not many people had heard of Singati till then — a cluster of houses by the Tama Kosi River along a narrow gorge that is the roadhead to Rolwaling Valley.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250508110520_57b6e316656851f71eca56ca6f98d9bbcc820c1a00d62af3c990725b4361244d.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20250508110520_57b6e316656851f71eca56ca6f98d9bbcc820c1a00d62af3c990725b4361244d" data-rendition-name="original" width="1000" height="1500" loading="lazy" alt="Climate magnifies earthquake risk in Nepal village NT"> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250508110520_016534fb2b6a79957402281cda768efb83a146786377e39e11df3e251d37159e.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20250508110520_016534fb2b6a79957402281cda768efb83a146786377e39e11df3e251d37159e" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Climate magnifies earthquake risk in Nepal village NT"> </figure>  It was here that dozens were killed on 25 April in the first earthquake. Hundreds of <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/Singati-rising-from-rubble-rebuilding,3703">Singati survivors</a> had lined up for food and relief supplies in the morning of 12 May when the second earthquake triggered a rock slide that buried a nearby camp. At least 50 people were killed. &nbsp; Three hours later, a US Marine Corps UH-1Y Venom helicopter landed in a nearby cornfield to pick up the wounded, and flew off. The aircraft lost contact with air traffic control in Kathmandu and its wreckage was located high on Kalinchok four days later. Six American servicemen, two Nepal Army soldiers, and five wounded civilians from Singati were killed. Today, Singati bears little physical scar of the multiple tragedies that struck the town ten years ago. Most <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/multimedia/bungamati-builds-back">houses have been rebuilt</a> as urban-style concrete structures, and Singati has become an economic hub on the road leading up to several hydropower plants and a<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/off-the-beaten-trek-in-nepal"> popular trekking destination</a>.&nbsp; The town looks less like a village and more like a suburb of the Dolakha district headquarter of Charikot, 47km away.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250508110520_196f341d1df1403ba133e5dfeb837eec20d7cbcb4c8c56b17cc5598810de5df2.jpg" data-media-id="editor_6" data-image-id="20250508110520_196f341d1df1403ba133e5dfeb837eec20d7cbcb4c8c56b17cc5598810de5df2" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Climate magnifies earthquake risk in Nepal village NT"> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250508110524_ae66c4a92430f67db51b5e11e017059eedfbac4cb18c8e073f2a50cca1fe904e.jpg" data-media-id="editor_7" data-image-id="20250508110524_ae66c4a92430f67db51b5e11e017059eedfbac4cb18c8e073f2a50cca1fe904e" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Climate magnifies earthquake risk in Nepal village NT"> </figure>  “The demand for construction material, cement, iron rods and bricks peaked after the earthquakes,” says Suresh Khadka, who owns a hardware business here and now supplies material to the 456MW Upper Tama Kosi hydropower project that is undergoing repairs after it was damaged by a landslide last year. The demand for cement boomed since most residents believe, not necessarily correctly, that <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/in-a-disastrous-state">cement houses are safer</a>. Although Khadka did well selling construction material after the earthquake, he worries that most new structures do not follow seismic-resistant building codes.&nbsp; The construction boom financed by bank loans has in turn forced many from Singati to <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/making-overseas-migration-better">migrate overseas for work</a> so they can service their debt.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250508110524_50caa4530bd5ff9120cf7ab70a62173846d337ef448ff8bac339f3faa375a9e2.jpg" data-media-id="editor_10" data-image-id="20250508110524_50caa4530bd5ff9120cf7ab70a62173846d337ef448ff8bac339f3faa375a9e2" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Climate magnifies earthquake risk in Nepal village NT"> <figcaption>Suresh Khadka</figcaption> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250508110520_ef8b7d3993fc3b5df852bbf952feb3fbabc96d6883b0d5eb74ee5c60f4123b83.jpg" data-media-id="editor_11" data-image-id="20250508110520_ef8b7d3993fc3b5df852bbf952feb3fbabc96d6883b0d5eb74ee5c60f4123b83" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Climate magnifies earthquake risk in Nepal village NT"> <figcaption>Phu Doma Sherpa (right)</figcaption> </figure>  “My family had no choice but to borrow money to rebuild our home since the government compensation was not enough, and ten years later we are still paying off the loan,” says Phu Doma Sherpa, 60. Because of the shortage of qualified masons and proper seismic engineering, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/structural-problems">many of the buildings are of questionable building standards </a>and the traditional architecture has been abandoned, admits Kul Bahadur Budathoki, deputy chair of the municipality. “But these buildings were more expensive than what the government grants could cover, many people here are heavily in debt and the men have <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/every-day-is-closer-to-pay-day">migrated to the Gulf to pay their loans</a>,” Budathoki says.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250508110520_32f89e97b7e757fc9286c0bbb671f48ea8d4468e9634fa646d7247c650ad8480.jpg" data-media-id="editor_14" data-image-id="20250508110520_32f89e97b7e757fc9286c0bbb671f48ea8d4468e9634fa646d7247c650ad8480" data-rendition-name="original" width="1501" height="1079" loading="lazy" alt="Climate magnifies earthquake risk in Nepal village NT"> <figcaption>Kul Bahadur Budathoki</figcaption> </figure>  Singati is in a multi-hazard zone. The <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/article/nation/Singati,3091">12 May 2015 earthquake </a>could have led to the collapse of Nepal’s largest glacial lake, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/stairway-to-heaven">Tso Rolpa</a>, upstream. Due to global warming, the glacier has turned into an expanding lake 3.5km long, and its collapse would have unleashed a catastrophic Himalayan tsunami down the Tama Kosi Valley, with Singati directly in its path. Singati has literally risen from the ashes of 2015, with its residents beginning to recover from the trauma and financial toll. But it is not out of danger as <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/climate-breakdown-linked-to-thame-flood">climate breakdown </a>magnifies the risk from future earthquakes.