This week, all seven of Nepal’s provincial governments announced their annual budgets even as debate in the federal parliament over the central budget has been stalled for two weeks due to obstruction by the opposition RSP. There are no big surprises in the provincial Red Books — they are all in the red with reduced allocations from the centre. Even so, while Gandaki and Lumbini have slightly reduced the size of the budget compared to the preceding fiscal year, the budget for the other four provinces are marginally bigger. Even though revenue is short, the central and provincial governments have chronically been plagued by their inability to spend what has been budgeted, especially under capital expenditure. Five out of the seven provinces have in fact spent less than half of their allocated budget, the other two have fared only slightly better. The provinces’ underspending, as well as the flurry of last minute budget dispensation across projects (known as ‘असारे खर्च’ after the current Nepali month) has been attributed to competing political interests, mismanagement and kickbacks on projects. For instance, while Lumbini has been able to spend 59.1% of its allocated capital expenditure, Madhes Province has managed to spend just 16% of its development budget even though it has the second biggest budget among the seven provinces for the upcoming year. Even as provinces struggle to spend their budgets and implement development projects, the federal leadership in Kathmandu continues to display its reluctance to decentralise power to the provinces, and to hold tightly to the purse strings, rendering the provinces largely functionless.  <figure><img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025062001064_0ccb183b0c1f65fcd798ecb826c5d11f04d0a381c78f864bf00698041ad74450.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="2025062001064_0ccb183b0c1f65fcd798ecb826c5d11f04d0a381c78f864bf00698041ad74450" data-rendition-name="original" width="1337" height="1500" loading="lazy" alt="Federalism express NT"><figcaption>Photo: @PHALANO</figcaption></figure>  August marks the tenth anniversary of the promulgation of the 2015 Constitution and the establishment of a three-tiered system of government that envisioned the devolution of political power from Kathmandu to provinces and local municipalities. In the decade since, local governments have been lauded for their performance as the country’s municipal units saw multi-sectoral grassroots development. Rural municipalities and elected ward councils were forced to be more accountable to voters since they were in close proximity. However, the mainstream political parties and their leaders have continued to override the authority granted to provincial governments by the Constitution – especially when it comes to revenue collection, policy-making, and decisions on development projects. Earlier this month, Gandaki Province decided to suspend its newly-introduced Ride Sharing regulatory guideline after the Prime Minister’s office sent a letter instructing it to temporarily halt implementation following nationwide protests by public transport entrepreneurs associations who oppose the new regulation, and many of whom are affiliated to the ruling parties. The federal government’s circular overriding a provincial decision on local transport went against the Constitution and infringed upon the rights of the provinces. “Our federalism was supposed to be a cooperative system,” explains federalism expert Khim Lal Devkota. “But citizens and civil society, the political leadership and bureaucracy across all three levels of government have not yet let go of their Kathmandu-centric mindset.” The dissatisfaction with dysfunctional provincial governments has contributed to the perception that federalism is wasteful and should be scrapped, a narrative that the pro-monarchist parties have used in their rallies to get rid of the 2015 Constitution. It is true that federalism was an outcome of the peace process, and a demand the Maoists wanted fulfilled in exchange for giving up arms. But devolution was never allowed to deliver at the grassroots. “Nepal’s three-tired government was the result of our vision not of a limited government, but one with maximised capabilities of looking over all affairs of the state,” explained political scientist Sanjeev Humagain at a recent event discussing the rise of right-wing populism in Nepal and globally. “But perhaps we have not fully understood the concept of this political system, or we think of federalism as a transitional idea until we eventually adopt another form of governance,” he added. A recent survey by Social Science Baha gauged how Nepal’s ‘local elite’, people who wield socio-political influence at the subnational level, view federalism. As expected, the survey found that a majority of the respondents feel positively about the performance of local governments. The survey also showed support for federalism, but there was dissatisfaction with the functioning of provinces, along with recognition that there was too much interference from political parties and their leadership in Kathmandu reluctant to cede authority to them. ‘The state of federal and regional party politics marked by ever-changing alliances leading to frequent changes in government at both levels has eroded confidence in the provincial governments being able to perform efficiently,’ read the report. ‘Government officials and civil society representatives alike also viewed provincial governments as passive recipients of the federal governments’ plans, policies and projects contradicting the very purpose of creating provincial governments in the first place.’ But not everything can be blamed on the central government. Many provincial leaders are happy to be proxies of their parent parties, and lack initiative to use their constitutionally mandated right to self-governance. Opposition to federalism is also fueled by the idea that it has merely decentralised corruption, that it unnecessarily triplicates overhead costs of government and is wasteful. The general feeling is that it is an expendable and costly second tier of government. But data contradicts this. Nepal’s Economic Survey 2024/25 shows that the share of provinces in the total national expenditure last year was just 10%, and has remained consistent since the first elections under the federal system in 2017. Says Khim Lal Devkota: “Federalism is still nascent in Nepal, and we must give it a chance to stand on its feet. Nepal must not be a laboratory to experiment with new systems of governance just because the existing one is not working fast enough for our liking.”

Shristi Karki

original

674x448

610x380

500x500

400x266

400x240

400x203

301x200

1250x600

1084x550

thumbnail

viewImage

Federalism Express

The chief ministers of all seven provinces met last week in Hetauda to discuss their next step to pressure the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/federalism-rule-of-law-and-the-judiciary">federal government</a> to devolve political power to their provinces.&nbsp;
In a unique cross-party show of strength, the provincial leadership presented a joint memorandum to Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal in Kathmandu. Some of their demands were to transfer control of the police force, pass the long pending federal civil service law, hand over ownership of provincial infrastructure and natural resources, and last but not least, allow them to collect their own revenue. &nbsp;
This is not the first time the provinces have expressed their collective grievance. But Kathmandu, under various governments since the first elections under the new Constitution in 2017, has just been making empty promises.&nbsp;
Indeed, Nepal’s main political leaders who were themselves the architects of the federal constitution are <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/feudal-federalism">loath to devolve political power</a> that they have decentralised to local governments. Even their own party structure is wholly centralised not just in the central committee in Kathmandu, but in just one elderly alpha male in each party.
That Nepal’s leadership is lukewarm towards federalism is no big secret, they are unwilling to loosen their grip on power even to their own party leaders in the provinces and municipalities.
Eight years after the establishment of a <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/feudalism-to-federalism">three-tiered system of government</a> following a prolonged deadlock over the style of federalism that delayed the passage of the post-conflict 2015 Constitution, Nepal’s provinces are largely functionless.&nbsp;
For many Nepalis, the perception is that federalism is a corrupt and costly experiment that has failed miserably. Indeed, they have spent a fortune building luxurious lodgings for the provincial leadership in the upscale Bhaisepati neighbourhood. &nbsp;
In Nepal, federalism did not just signify devolution of power, but also the people’s sense of identity and belonging, and the participation of those historically excluded from the political process. This fact was reflected in the opposition of the people to the<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/kosi-now-kathmandu-next"> naming of Province 1 as Kosi</a>, and their demand for it to be renamed Kirat Limbuwan.
This is not a new struggle. The Madhes movement for federal restructuring after the decade-long armed conflict actually served as a catalyst for the establishment of the provincial system. The Maoists insisted on an ethnicity-based provincial model and the Nepali Congress was for a geographical delineation. The UML backed a hybrid model.&nbsp;
The Maoists have historically taken credit for the transformation of the governance system that allowed for the reflection of identity, while the UML and the NC have sought to maintain the status quo even after the establishment of federalism.&nbsp;
Prime Minister Dahal has directly interfered in provincial governance, which in this year’s case served to further inflame <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/east-is-east">social unrest in Kosi</a>.&nbsp;
For outsiders looking in who are removed from the nuances in Kosi, Madhes, and Sudar Paschim, and are only involved in Kathmandu-centred discourse, provincial governance and federalism have thus just become a burdensome extension of central politics.&nbsp;
Federalism will once more become an election issue in the 2027 polls as political parties succumb to the temptation to <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/long-leave-the-king">adopt regressive, conservative</a>, and populist rhetoric to appeal to disenfranchised voters. &nbsp;
Bad mouthing federalism has become a favourite pastime for parties like the royal right RPP, which has simultaneously fed and fed off the public’s disenchantment with governance to call for the abolishment of federalism and the reestablishment of a Hindu monarchy.&nbsp;
Ironically, the party fielded the second-highest number of FPTP candidates to contest provincial elections in 2022.
Meanwhile, the new and independent Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) which did not field candidates for provincial elections in 2022, may not say it is against federalism in so many words, but has called it “useless” and “enabling corruption”. They have proposed to make the provincial assembly and parliament smaller.
The provinces today are indeed proxies of Kathmandu —seven mirrors which reflect the political incompetence of the central government instead of being fully functioning autonomous units.&nbsp;
Nepalis have been <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/year-of-reckoning">quick to blame federalism</a> when it is the politicians who have refused to let go of their control. The system of governance is not flawed, politicians that keep provinces on a tight leash are.&nbsp;
Nepal’s provinces are not incapable of fulfilling their function, they have not been allowed to explore their roles and responsibilities. Throwing out federalism is not the answer.&nbsp;
To dismantle federalism is to undo the years of work it took to promulgate the Constitution and to overlook the struggle, sacrifice and hard-earned achievements of countless people during the conflict that preceded the Constitution.&nbsp;
In order for Nepal’s democracy to truly function, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/un-centralising-the-federal-structure">federalism must be given a chance</a>.
Shristi Karki

The F word

The winter air pollution season started early this year with emissions, Diwali firecrackers and crop residue burning making the air unbreathable across north India. Much of the pollution was transboundary, with prevailing winds carrying the suspended particulates from Pakistan, across India to Nepal and beyond. All this pollution and domestic emissions killed 41,300 in Nepal in 2023, and 85% of all deaths were because of noncommunicable diseases such as heart and lung disease, lung cancer, diabetes, and dementia, according to the State of Global Air (SoGA) 2025 report released Thursday. With the onset of winter, Kathmandu Valley’s own emissions are trapped in a surface inversion layer and as in previous years will have some of the worst air quality in the world.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20251023131016_7c42a4e8b0dce01dfeeaaf89dbb10dbfa036b41163f3ebada88c7ce17dbded49.png" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20251023131016_7c42a4e8b0dce01dfeeaaf89dbb10dbfa036b41163f3ebada88c7ce17dbded49" data-rendition-name="original" width="921" height="850" loading="lazy" alt="Air pollution killing season starts early NT"> </figure>  The SoGa report says air pollution has now become the leading risk factor for deaths in Nepal, ahead of tobacco and high blood pressure. Interestingly, while the health impacts due to environmental risk factors such as unsafe water and sanitation have reduced significantly since 2000, the opposite is true for ambient PM2.5 (particles smaller than 2.5 microns). Globally, 7.9 million deaths were attributable to air pollution– about 1 in 8 deaths – in 2023. Of this total, 4.9 million deaths were attributable to PM2.5 exposure, 2.8 million were from household air pollution, and 470,000 were from ozone. Similarly, dementia attributable to air pollution resulted in 626,000 deaths and 40 million healthy years of life lost. And 95% of air pollution attributable deaths in adults over the age of 60 are due to noncommunicable diseases. The burden of noncommunicable diseases in relation to air pollution is rising worldwide and in Nepal. The SoGA report shows that nearly nine of ten global air pollution deaths are from chronic ailments, and half of all respiratory disease deaths are attributable to air pollution.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20251023131020_8577f464b4a73007de5dd018b8ac91dae3a9c732dbb81a44b6aa5a0ced7df3df.png" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20251023131020_8577f464b4a73007de5dd018b8ac91dae3a9c732dbb81a44b6aa5a0ced7df3df" data-rendition-name="original" width="1080" height="1080" loading="lazy" alt="Air pollution killing season starts early NT"> </figure>  In Nepal, air pollution is responsible for three out of four COPD deaths, one out of three heart deaths and one out of five diabetes deaths. More than one third of lower respiratory infection deaths were due to air pollution. “The data presented in the State of Global Air report highlight the significant impacts of poor air quality on the health and well-being of billions of people around the world, especially those living in Asia and Africa,” says Pallavi Pant of the Boston-based Health Effects Institute (HEI) that released the report in collaboration with the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation and the NCD Alliance. She adds: “Growing momentum on air quality management across those hard-hit locations, including expansion of air quality monitoring, adoption of air quality regulations, and sector-specific interventions are yielding improvements for those most impacted.” Low- and middle-income countries stand to gain most by reducing air pollution, with particularly strong impacts on children, older populations, and people with pre-existing health conditions. Indeed, of the 41,300 air pollution deaths in 2023 in Nepal, 31,600 were in adults over the age of 60 years and 3,500 in children below five years. Death rate for air pollution in Nepal, which is 178 per 100,000, is more than 10 times higher than high-income countries, which is at 17 per 100,000.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20251023131020_604e852aed4ffde0dc7d1df72fcd3e73d904136dfb1bb2407e53b7445f3ef72c.png" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20251023131020_604e852aed4ffde0dc7d1df72fcd3e73d904136dfb1bb2407e53b7445f3ef72c" data-rendition-name="original" width="1078" height="423" loading="lazy" alt="Air pollution killing season starts early NT"> </figure>  “Win-win solutions for air pollution and NCDs exist, with added benefits for climate, physical activity, nutrition, and many other global development priorities,” says Alison Cox, Policy and Advocacy Director at the Geneva-based NCD Alliance. “These policies are effective and deliver a strong return on investment - for the sake of our people and the planet we need to implement them faster.” Fine particle pollution (ambient PM2.5) is the largest driver of air pollution’s burden of disease worldwide as kit attributed to 4.9 million deaths and 124 million healthy years of life lost in 2023. Vehicles, power plants, factories, and homes, as well as agricultural and industrial activities, waste burning and wildfires are some of the biggest sources of pollutants. South Asia is among the regions of the world with the highest exposures to ambient PM2.5 , while more than 36% of people around the world live in areas where PM2.5 levels do not meet even the least stringent interim target. As per the report, 78% of Nepal’s 30 million population lives in areas where annual PM2.5 exposure exceeds the least stringent WHO Air Quality Interim Target of 35 µg/m3. Meanwhile, exposure to household air pollution due to the use of solid fuels for cooking remains an important driver for the disease burden in the country. “Ongoing efforts to meet global development goals are not achievable without directly addressing air pollution,” says Maria Neira, Commissioner of Our Common Air. “Countries and cities must focus their efforts toward reducing air pollution emissions, including household air pollution, which has particularly severe impacts on young children and older people across Asia and Africa.”

Air pollution killing season starts early

This year, the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/quo-vadis-un-80-9vthn7mg">United Nations is marking its 80th anniversary</a> and it is being celebrated with special events across the world to commemorate its establishment on 24 October 1945. It has also been 75 years since the first UN adviser, the Swiss geologist Toni Hagen, was sent to Nepal to explore development opportunities. In 1950, there were no roads and Hagen walked on foot across the length and breadth of Nepal’s mountains, valleys and plains. This year also marks the 60th anniversary of the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) in Nepal, and much of Hagen’s work laid the basis for the UN’s involvement in education, health, and connectivity in Nepal’s future development. Despite frequent changes in government and political system, Nepal has made remarkable progress. The poverty rate has gone down by half in the past 30 years to 20.27% of the population. Much of it has to do with remittances from Nepalis working overseas, but it is also a result of the Nepal government’s investment in education, health care and social welfare.&nbsp; There have been special initiatives like the Prime Minister’s Employment Program that have provided jobs to nearly 800,000 people in the country’s 743 municipalities — especially in those areas with lower Human Development Index (HDI) like the far-west and the Tarai.&nbsp; This year’s HDI report by UNDP shows that Nepal’s score had risen to 0.622, whereas it was only 0.404 in 1990. In the past 33 years, the average lifespan of Nepalis has risen by 15.6 years to 70.4 years, whereas it was only 54.8 in 1990. However, the country’s HDI ranking is still 145 among the world’s 193 countries. “Yes, there has been significant improvement in living standards in the past 60 years, road connectivity has improved, the maternal mortality rate has gone down dramatically, almost everyone has phones, there are schools,” says Saru Joshi of the thinktank Nepal Policy Institute. But, she adds: “It is still difficult to get citizenship papers, especially in the name of the mother, and this has excluded many women from banking services, inheritance. After all our progress in physical infrastructure, Nepal now needs to prioritise inclusive social development.”&nbsp; Some of this is also happening. Eighteen years ago, Nabaraj Subedi, 49, of a village in Baglung decided not to join his peers &nbsp;fleeing the Maoist conflict to find work overseas. He invested Rs500,000 to buy a diesel generator and start a small furniture business.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20251024071044_eeef308e19a73de507a425b2c6afc47269884549cf4c8fac07ca9a4898c8e031.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20251024071044_eeef308e19a73de507a425b2c6afc47269884549cf4c8fac07ca9a4898c8e031" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Nawaraj Subedi"> <figcaption>Nawaraj Subedi, 49, proprietor of Tarakhola Furniture Factory. </figcaption> </figure>  Today, with the installation of the 380 kilowatt small hydroelectric plant, he does not need to depend on his unreliable generator to power his equipment anymore. There is now a road connecting his village, and Subedi has generated local jobs, opened a sales branch in the city, and gets orders from as far away as Pokhara and Chitwan. “My costs have gone down drastically because of the electricity, and sales have gone up because of the road connecting my furniture to markets. My business has expanded,” Subedi says. Back in 1960 in a report he prepared for the Nepal government on behalf of the United Nations, Toni Hagen had emphasised just this: investing in electricity generation and connectivity to uplift the remote rural areas of Nepal.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20251024081024_188ab121dc3cf2816ee71a72cb3687493eda37ab99ecc04802d647c8c9b4cd2d.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20251024081024_188ab121dc3cf2816ee71a72cb3687493eda37ab99ecc04802d647c8c9b4cd2d" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Tarakhola Furniture Factory"> <figcaption>Subedi's staff at the Tarakhola Furniture Factory.</figcaption> </figure>  Subedi’s furniture factory gets its electricity from the nearby Tarakhola Hydropower, a company set up eight years ago with financial and technical support from UNDP’s Renewable Energy for Rural Livelihood (RERL) project. &nbsp; “The project completely transformed living standards in this village,” says municipality chair Dhan Bahadur BK. “It has helped create jobs locally, there is now money to invest in education and healthcare. Households can pay their electricity fees electronically through smart billing.”&nbsp; After working with the government on rural electrification, UNDP is focussed on using that power for local employment creation. A women’s group, for example, has bought an electric-powered potato processing machine that can produce chips.&nbsp; “We are 12 of us mothers, daughters, daughters-in-law who process, package and market the potato that we grow ourselves, and it has raised our income,” says Sukmaya Roka, 57, who chairs the group.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20251024071044_70b22418699178bcdd0abb0aa308796980ecd29634bcda6ff113a7624e709751.jpg" data-media-id="editor_3" data-image-id="20251024071044_70b22418699178bcdd0abb0aa308796980ecd29634bcda6ff113a7624e709751" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Sukamaya Roka"> <figcaption>Sukamaya Roka, 57, chair of Sipa Aalu Chips Utpadan Samuha from Tarakhola Rural Municipality, Baglung. </figcaption> </figure>  Today, 6.1 million households in Nepal (92.2% of total) have electricity in their homes, up from 17.9% 30 years ago. Access to electricity has not just brought lights to homes, but improved everything from productivity, quality of education, healthcare and phone connectivity.&nbsp; “To see what electricity and roads can do, just look at our municipality,” says chair Dhan Bahadur BK, “citizens have become more self-reliant, more aware of the outside world.”&nbsp; NETTLES INTO CASH&nbsp; Just a little bit of training, resource backup and local empowerment can uplift the living standards of Nepalis. The progress made in harvesting abundantly-available allo (nettles) and turning it into household products is an example. When a landslide swept away his home and farm in a flood 40 years ago, Buddhi Purja of Parbat became destitute. But he took part in a government training program supported by UNDP and Australia to harvest the wild nettles that grew on mountain slopes and turn the fabric into bags.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20251024071048_56c440c478dffbc13911369b6f4133baf658cc3667773cdb44b7c40e006463ce.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20251024071048_56c440c478dffbc13911369b6f4133baf658cc3667773cdb44b7c40e006463ce" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Rhitu Saugat Handicraft"> <figcaption>A worker at Rhitu Saugat Handicraft making a bag out of nettles.</figcaption> </figure>  “After the landslide, we had to go hungry if we did not get a day job,” Purja recalls, “but after this training we have found that we can turn nettles into cash.” His allo bags are now hanging in tourist shops in Pokhara Lakeside and Thamel.&nbsp; The idea that nettles can be processed into useful fabric has not spread across the country, and new ecologically conscious consumers in Europe and elsewhere now import Made in Nepal nettle products.&nbsp; Purja started out with an investment of Rs500,000, and had a Rs20 million business that employed 25 workers. The Covid crisis in 2020 affected the sales, but Purja has recovered from it, sent his daughter off to study abroad, and is thinking of diversifying his product range.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20251024071044_ab6d15abcbb9a643e12a384f4bc488b7e210a8c95303fbe1b2f77716d26eede9.jpg" data-media-id="editor_5" data-image-id="20251024071044_ab6d15abcbb9a643e12a384f4bc488b7e210a8c95303fbe1b2f77716d26eede9" data-rendition-name="original" width="1500" height="1000" loading="lazy" alt="Buddi Purja"> <figcaption>Buddi Purja, proprietor of Rhitu Saugat Handicraft in Pokhara.</figcaption> </figure>  While UNDP’s project has made successful businessmen out of people like Purja, nationwide it has created 187,000 jobs in rural medium-scale industries. Much of what has worked in Nepal has been at the community level with decentralised projects like these that use the entrepreneurship of people like Buddhi Purja, Navaraj Subedi, and Sukmaya Roka. It is tantalising to imagine how much more progress Nepal would have made if their work could be replicated nationside and upscaled to the state-level.

Think locally, invest locally

Nepal needs to enact and enforce animal law

Public anxiety about immigration has become a powerful political currency across many liberal democracies. In Australia, as elsewhere, legitimate concerns about housing and economic fairness can be, and increasingly are exploited by anti-democratic actors who frame migration not as a policy issue but as a cultural threat.&nbsp;
When these narratives move from online spaces to public rallies, they do more than divide opinion; they erode the social trust and pluralism on which democracy depends. Understanding how populist and far-right movements weaponise migration debates is crucial to recognising the early challenging signs of liberal democracy.
Immigration has become one of the most politically charged issues in Australia, not only because of the numbers but because of its entanglement with cost-of-living pressures, housing shortages, and rent spikes.&nbsp;
The latest Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) <a href="https://www.unimelb.edu.au/newsroom/news/2025/september/how-we-live-latest-hilda-data-gives-insight-into-a-changing-australia">data</a> shows rising household financial stress as Australian households spending more on rent and income tax. These changes likely reflect a mix of economic and policy factors but create a lot of room for people to hold inaccurate and occasionally contradictory attitudes on these issues.&nbsp;
While net overseas migration has started to decline from its post-pandemic peak, public concern remains high, amplified by populist rhetoric. Some surveys have <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/feb/04/australians-want-less-migration-but-oppose-cutting-international-student-numbers-study-finds">revealed</a> a nuanced picture: most Australians want lower migration overall but oppose cutting international student numbers, and support targeted skilled migration to address workforce gaps.&nbsp;
As former Home Affairs Minister Clare O’Neil <a href="https://minister.homeaffairs.gov.au/ClareONeil/Pages/how-australia-broke-its-migration-system.aspx">argued</a> in 2023, Australia’s migration system is “broken and un-strategic”, not delivering for business, for migrants, or for the larger population. This is a situation that frustrates both sides of the debate and makes immigration an easy political flashpoint.
The recent <a href="https://marchforaustralia.org/">March for Australia</a> rallies turned these anxieties into street-level mobilisation. Tens of thousands <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/czjmre371l1o">protested</a> at what they called ‘mass immigration’, while far-right groups seized the opportunity to inject xenophobic slogans and calls for ‘remigration’ into the public space. These demonstrations were not only about visa caps or housing and jobs; they became performances of who is entitled to belong.&nbsp;
When immigration is framed not as a policy question but as a cultural test of Australianness, it risks shrinking the demos, the very community that democracy is meant to represent.
What made the March for Australia so striking was not only its size but its composition. Recent investigative reporting <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/don-t-mention-hitler-and-you-re-sweet-the-great-march-for-australia-deception-20250909-p5mtlc.html">revealed</a> that neo-Nazi groups were not merely present at the March for Australia rallies but played a role in covertly organising them. They amplified messaging online, coordinated attendance, and sought to mask their involvement to broaden appeal.&nbsp;
This highlights that democratic erosion is rarely spontaneous; it requires actors who deliberately exploit social grievances, mistrust, and polarisation to mobilise anger for their anti-democratic ends. The banners reading ‘<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/sep/01/how-do-i-feel-safe-after-march-for-australia-anti-immigration-protest-ntwnfb">Stop Immigration</a>’ revealed that public hostility towards migrants, <a href="https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/pressure-mounts-for-price-to-apologise-to-indian-australians-20250908-p5mt7x">particularly</a> from the Indo-Pacific, is growing.
For many migrants, these displays are more than conceptual debates about white national identity. They are experienced emotionally. Writing shortly after the rallies, Melbourne-based writer Jafrin Kabir <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/sep/01/how-do-i-feel-safe-after-march-for-australia-anti-immigration-protest-ntwnfb">reflected</a> that she had never felt so foreign on Australian soil. She pays taxes and inflated rents, contributes skills in the national interest, cheers for the Tillies and calls Melbourne “home”, yet suddenly felt unsafe because of the origin and colour of her skin.&nbsp;
Similarly, Chinese national interviewed by media outlet <a href="https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3325127/i-feel-insecure-chinese-nationals-australia-blindsided-anti-immigration-marches">reported</a> cancelling weekend plans and feeling “blindsided” by the scale of the marches.
Scapegoating migrants especially in times of economic stress is an age-old phenomenon and is not just limited to Australia. Across the democratic world, from the United States to the UK and parts of Europe, hostility toward migrants and minorities has become a route for anti-democratic forces. Populist actors often <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/mar/27/peter-dutton-keeps-blaming-migration-for-the-housing-crisis-but-can-it-really-be-that-simple">use</a> cultural anxiety and demographic change to justify illiberal and undemocratic measures, claiming to restore order while actually dismantling checks and balances.
By analysing democratic decay, scholars like Lydia Khalil at the Lowy Institute, <a href="https://interactives.lowyinstitute.org/features/democratic-erosion/">argue</a> that democracies rarely break down at once. Instead, they incrementally weaken through vicious cycles: declining trust in institutions, entrenched division based on hate, the normalisation of political violence, and the bit by bit removal of norms and guardrails.&nbsp;
Though some of the conditions are present in Australia to be exploited by anti-democratic actors, for example, almost two-thirds of Australians believe their leaders intentionally mislead them, according to the <a href="https://www.edelman.com/au/trust/2025/trust-barometer">2025 Edelman Trust Barometer</a>, &nbsp;but their presence is not determinative.
Australia’s democratic guardrails remain strong: independent courts, transparent elections run by the AEC, and a free press continue to hold power to account. Federalism and active civil society further diffuse power and create space for contestation.&nbsp;
But if public trust continues to erode and social divisions deepen, these safeguards will come under strain. Early recognition and action are crucial to ensure that today’s street-level hostilities do not translate into institutional regression.
Preventing such outcome requires a socially embedded understanding of migration, an understanding that goes beyond simplistic optimistic and pessimistic views. Policy makers should go beyond Push-Pull models, functionalist and neoclassical and historical-structural theories.&nbsp;
Consulting the work done by <a href="https://www.guilford.com/books/The-Age-of-Migration/Haas-Castles-Miller/9781462542895#:~:text=International%20Population%20Movements%20in%20the%20Modern%20World,-Hein%20de%20Haas">Hein de Haas</a> et-el, migration should be conceptualised as an intrinsic part of broader processes of development, social transformation and globalisation rather than a 'problem to be solved'. We need more nuanced views that have an eye for the complexity of migration processes and the diversity of its causes and impacts.
Sohail Akhtar is a Melbourne- based researcher focusing on governance, public policy, and migration. He contributes to Lowy Institute Sydney.
This article was issued by the Toda Peace Institute and is being republished from <a href="https://toda.org/global-outlook/2025/is-street-level-hostility-a-challenge-to-liberal-democracy-reflections-from-australia.html">the original</a> with their permission.

provinces

Federalism Express

The F word

Air pollution killing season starts early

Think locally, invest locally

Nepal needs to enact and enforce animal law

Is street-level hostility a challenge to liberal democracy?