The Nepal government is all set to launch a Rs25 billion project to build a dam inside Shivapuri National Park to flush the Bagmati, wash away its waste and stanch its stench as it flows through Kathmandu. However, critics say it is an extravagant undertaking that carries financial, seismic and environmental risks, and that the Bagmati can be more effectively cleaned with a sewage network, water treatment plant and better <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/where-to-take-a-dump">urban solid waste management</a>. &nbsp; The Department of Water Resources and Irrigation is planning to build the 95m high dam on the Nagmati stream to also augment Kathmandu Valley’s drinking water supply and generate some electricity. The scheme is an extension of a project funded by the Asian Development Bank (ADB).&nbsp; Engineer Nishchal Chhatkuli of the ADB-supported <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/kathmandu-gets-first-pump-track">Bagmati River Basin Improvement Project </a>says the environmental impact assessment is awaiting approval and clearing trees and construction of an access road will begin soon. The project is expected to be completed by 2032 by when the reservoir will be capable of storing 9.4 billion litres of monsoon runoff and releasing 450 l/s into the Bagmati River as it starts to flow through Kathmandu 18km downstream.&nbsp; The primary purpose of the dam is said to be to flush out the polluted Bagmati River, although some of the water will also be added to the mains connected to the Melamchi tunnel, as well as generate 1.86MW of electricity.&nbsp; The Project started in 2013 to improve Kathmandu’s river system under which another 24m high dam has already been built at Dhap, upstream from the proposed dam.&nbsp; But the Dhap reservoir was deemed to have insufficient storage to flush the Bagmati all year round, and the ADB supported a detailed feasibility study completed by an Australian company in 2017 that endorsed a<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/kathmandu-creeps-up-surrounding-mountains"> higher dam downstream </a>near Mulkharka, 3km above the confluence of the Nagmati and Bagmati.&nbsp; “Since water cannot be brought from elsewhere, stored rainwater drained from this lake is the only way to deliver it to Bagmati during winter and take the river back to how it was three decades ago,” Chhatkuli explains.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2024020301024_c7f7c1a0165e10d96afa0244389de367da0c24c99b5e864a9a275e455ecf20cc.png" data-media-id="editor_3" data-image-id="2024020301024_c7f7c1a0165e10d96afa0244389de367da0c24c99b5e864a9a275e455ecf20cc" data-rendition-name="original" width="761" height="403" loading="lazy" alt="Nagmati NT"> <figcaption>Shivapuri-Nagarjun National Park showing Dhap Dam and the proposed Nagmati Reservoir.</figcaption> </figure>  The dam construction itself will cost Rs19 billion, and additional money will be spent on protecting the watershed, construction of the power house, drinking water use and building tourism facilities. &nbsp; Although the Nagmati project’s stated aim is to protect the river basin, critics say it will come at significant <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/editorial/development-destruction-yt3t1yhu?amp=1">ecological cost</a> to the national park. The environment impact assessment itself says more than 80,000 trees will have to be cut, and the access road will add to human disturbance in the wilderness area.&nbsp; ‘Permanent effects of the project include loss of local biodiversity, destruction of wildlife habitat, and construction activities that will alter local topography, increase soil erosion, and increase turbidity in the river,’ the report states.&nbsp; Nature activist Shrawan Sharma argues that impounding a reservoir of this size will harm the already fragile ecosystem of the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/frozen-shivapuri">Shivapuri- Nagarjun National Park</a> and the Bagmati watershed.&nbsp; The current government policy is to replace every tree cut with 10 saplings, which would mean that 800,000 saplings would need to be planted. But there is no land area for so many trees in Shivapuri. D P Jaisi, an engineer formerly with the Department of Irrigation says the construction of a big dam in an area with high seismic risk directly upstream from a densely populated city is a bad idea. Climate change adds to the risk.&nbsp; “Large infrastructure projects need to be future-proofed to withstand major disasters, but such structures are always a risk,” says Jaisi. “If the Nagmati Dam were to collapse, it would be catastrophic for Kathmandu.” The project’s detailed report does look at a potential dam collapse, and shows that 3.47 million litres per second would rush down to Kathmandu, reaching Sundarijal in 15 minutes and Pashupati within 90 minutes. “The debris flow in the event of a Nagmati Dam collapse will affect 500,000 people all the way down to Chobhar and even change the course of the Bagmati as it flows through Kathmandu,” Jaisi warns. Water resources professor at Pulchok Engineering Campus Hari Pandit says the damage would be large-scale and long-lasting. “We simply cannot rely on dam design in a country like ours with its weak governance and weak construction,” he adds. &nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2024020301024_b34372ab9e8091db5abbd59d604d01b5a3bc566616e3951b3fb0f77db895ec93.jpg" data-media-id="editor_6" data-image-id="2024020301024_b34372ab9e8091db5abbd59d604d01b5a3bc566616e3951b3fb0f77db895ec93" data-rendition-name="original" width="2500" height="3333" loading="lazy" alt="Nagmati NT"> <figcaption>The Nagmati inside the national park near the proposed dam site is a boulder-strewn stream. Photo: KUNDA DIXIT</figcaption> </figure>  Project officials like Chhatkuli say all this is scare-mongering and there is no reason to be alarmed because the dam is designed with the worst-case scenario for seismic and cloudburst risk in mind. But critics are not assuaged, especially considering the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/the-monsoon-mess-in-melamchi">disaster that struck the Melamchi water supply scheme</a> in 2021, Nepal’s biggest infrastructure project so far. An investigation showed that Melamchi headworks and tunnels did not take into account clear and present danger from climate change in the river's headwaters. Hydraulic structures expert Ravi Rajbhandari with Cemat Consultants says the dam, which will have concrete slabs on one side and rock-fill on the other, will be "like a sword hanging over Kathmandu’s head". He says we should learn lessons from last year’s catastrophic dam breaches in Libya and Sikkim. Experts also question why the Department of Irrigation is involved when the project has nothing to do with agriculture, and when the Rs25 billion lavished on another big project in Kathmandu could have been spent to irrigate rain-fed farms in rural areas and increase harvests.&nbsp; Some experts say the Nagmati project will mire Nepal in another <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/soaring-debt">debt trap</a>. The country’s public debt has reached Rs2.38 trillion and now accounts for more than 44% of the country’s GDP. Pouring money into a low-return project like Nagmati will push generations of Nepalis into indebtedness. Ravi Rajbhandari and Hari Pandit also doubt whether water released from the dam will actually make the Bagmati cleaner if sewage and garbage continue to be dumped into the river. The money could have been spent on extending the Melamchi tunnel to Larke and Yangri to increase water volume. But the project’s Nishchal Chhatkuli argues that the return on investment from the Nagmati Dam should not be measured only from an economic standpoint. “The price that locals have had to pay for living and being in proximity to the polluted Bagmati is incalculable,” he says. “The advantage of a cleaner Bagmati goes beyond purely financial benefit.”

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Dam dangerous

Nepal’s public debt quadrupled in the last eight years, growing from Rs540 billion after the earthquake in 2015 to Rs2.38 trillion this month, half of it external debt. It now makes up over 44% of the country’s GDP.&nbsp;
The revenue growth rate fell in the last fiscal year, reducing capacity to cover expenditure. The government is attempting to compensate by borrowing from within and outside the country. 
Officials have attributed <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/till-debt-do-us-part">Nepal’s debt load</a> to post-earthquake reconstruction, a bloated federal machinery, and the pandemic.
This year, the government earmarked Rs330 billion to pay back domestic and external loans and interest, which is more than 18% of the budget. Another Rs302 billion is for capital expenditure.
Nepal has reached a point where it is now borrowing more money to pay back its debt. Of the Rs162 billion borrowed internally and externally since last July, Rs116 billion was spent on loan repayment.&nbsp;
While Nepal’s debt burden is still significantly less than India or Japan, for instance, the difference is that debt-financed projects in Nepal have not yielded tangible returns. &nbsp;
The $120 million Prime Minister's Employment Program funded by the World Bank was declared ‘unproductive’ by the Auditor General. The Bank itself found that funds had been misused in the Project for Agriculture Commercialisation and Trade (PACT). The Rs1.5 billion Chobhar Dry Port is in limbo. &nbsp;
Agriculture imports continue to grow despite loans from the World Bank and the IFAD. The Rs22 billion Pokhara International Airport funded by China’s Exim Bank, and Bhairawa Airport built with an ADB loan have no international flights. &nbsp;
Another ADB scheme, the Melamchi Water Supply Project cost more than Rs35 billion, but supply is still cut after a <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/nepal-valley-suffers-quadruple-disaster">flood</a> destroyed its headworks in 2021. The proposed Rs25 billion dam on the Nagmati also financed by the ADB has been called extravagant and risky by critics.
“Loans are currently being wasted on unproductive projects,” says economist Nara Bahadur Thapa. “As debt increases, the government's spending on citizens decreases, leading to more public disillusionment.”&nbsp;
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Nepal’s governments have not just poured borrowed money into high-risk, low-reward projects, but unnecessary ones like view towers, city halls and minister’s villas.
&nbsp;Meanwhile, health, education, agriculture, drinking water, and roads remain in a state of permanent neglect.&nbsp;
“Nepalis are not aware of the country’s debt burden, but are concerned about the government’s mishandling and wastage of loans,” says former Finance Ministry Secretary Rameshore Khanal.
The debt burden reduces the government’s ability to spend on development, and passes on the debt to <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/matter-of-life-and-debt">future generations</a>. “Domestic debt is similar to a tax that we are forcing on our grandchildren,” says Khanal.
Some economists say a debt of up to 50% of GDP is normal for a country like Nepal. Finance Ministry spokesperson Dhani Ram Sharma says most foreign loans are low-interest and subsidised, but concedes that the government has wasted funds on projects that did not guarantee returns.
“The ministry has become more sensitive to risks associated with securing internal as well as foreign loans without designating the funds to a particular project and ensuring maximum returns,” says Sharma.&nbsp;
Economist Biswo Poudel says that although Nepal’s public debt is not yet unmanageable, planners must exercise caution while borrowing, control wasteful expenses and take initiatives to increase revenue and prevent <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/fueling-nepal-s-economic-crisis">revenue leakage</a>.&nbsp;
Poudel says the priority should be a debt cap, more care should be given to what loans are for, not to borrow indiscriminately and be profligate. &nbsp;&nbsp;
“If the debt continues to grow without increase in revenue, the economy will be unsustainable,” he adds, “it will be like a Ponzi scheme where we take new loans to pay off old ones.” &nbsp;

Soaring Debt

Nepali Congress (NC) President Gagan Thapa's candidacy in Sarlahi-4 has thrust this Madhes constituency into rare national focus. If Thapa wins and the NC emerges as the largest party, Sarlahi-4 will send Nepal's next prime minister to Parliament. But if he does not, Nepal’s grand old party will face the next years in the opposition to fight another day. There is a troubling paradox in Sarlahi-4 where the district bordering the Indian state of Bihar has been a battleground for national politicians with fierce electoral competition, all while remaining one of the region's most underserved and underdeveloped constituencies.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485.png" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20260305140344_069cbbc11e971a851b444866dee57f760c0cc611ed40bdf96c627e343e3c0485" data-rendition-name="original" width="1802" height="1276" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: MADHES PAHARA MEDIA</figcaption> </figure>  Ever since Mahant Thakur split from NC in 2008 to form the Tarai Madhes Loktantrik Party, the district has seen rotating political alliances and fragmented votes. Yet, despite 18 years of candidates promising change irrigation schemes remain incomplete, market access for farmers has not improved, unemployment is high.&nbsp; On election day, voters here marked their ballots with fingers stained by dye from the Holi festival the day before. The road leading to Barathawa Bazar was deserted for the most part, except for some youth riding in motorcycles. This is where the high-profile contest between Gagan Thapa and RSP nominee Amresh Singh is being staged. Among the other aspirants is 27-year-old UML candidate Amnish Yadav, the son of former MP Shiv Pujan Yadav. The Yadavs are a political family with considerable caste influence in the constituency. In 2022 Yadav’s daughter Madhumala Yadav received over 14,000 votes here, ranking third overall. Yadav was voted MP from the Maoist party, but defected to the UML this time. His other son is the chair of Sarlahi’s Ramnagar Rural Municipality. Sarhali-4 has 121,012 voters, and the Yadav is banking on the 27,000-strong Yadav vote bank. Sarlahi-4 voter Avishek Sah told us he wanted his vote to go to a young nominee and not someone who has been MP thrice already, like Amresh Singh. &nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20260305140344_527c5c2f9aa6a6c7e3bbdfbfe79fdafb0a0b56a62427e9ced86b924c6c563b10" data-rendition-name="original" width="1200" height="1600" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo: AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  To make local loyalties even more complicated, Amnish Yadav’s uncle, Harinder Yadav is an active NC member and walked side by side with Gagan Thapa during his door-to-door campaigns.&nbsp; The NC is betting on Thapa getting over 60% of the total votes. Amresh Singh’s tally could be limited to 10,000 votes — that too because of the nationwide RSP wave, and the popularity of its prime ministerial hopeful Balendra (Balen) Shah. “Amresh Singh lost his appeal when he played victim after he was denied a ticket by the NC in 2022,” Harinder Yadav says. Voters we spoke to here agreed with this assessment that Singh did not do much for the district once he got elected in the past, and being a part of the RSP seems to be his biggest asset. “The only reason I voted for Amresh Singh is because Balen is in RSP,” local voter Mahendra Gupta from Barathawa. &nbsp;“This is his last chance to return the people’s trust.”&nbsp; Gupta is aware of the institutional presence of the NC here. The party received the most votes in 2022 local elections, adding that the candidacy of someone as high-profile as Thapa is a positive sign for Sarlahi-4.&nbsp; Other voters like Ruby Gupta are rooting for both the NC and the RSP. “I will vote for Gagan and for Balen,” she says, adding that her FPTP vote will go to Thapa while her PR ballot would be for the RSP. RSP supporters are confident that their candidate will win big because even though many voters may not have openly voiced their support they still voted for the party and candidate. The Balen Wave was not limited to RSP voters, but also to UML candidate Yadav, who said in a gathering that he will be “the voters Balen” if they elect him. He touted his party’s track record in government, and largely campaigned on administrative efficiency, infrastructural expansion, and local service delivery. Amresh Singh ran on the RSP’s anti-establishment brand, promising to fight corruption, challenge traditional party politics, improve basic services such as education, health, jobs, and infrastructure, while pushing for stronger representation and development for Madhes.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_2" data-image-id="20260305140344_982df01801fa7d3532ca0555ecb8a0756e3223be3d93650e08ca82a312dc2ebd" data-rendition-name="original" width="1600" height="1200" loading="lazy" alt="Sarlahi-4 voting"> <figcaption>Photo:AYUSHA CHALISE</figcaption> </figure>  Singh’s rivalry with his NC competitor goes beyond the ballot— he allegedly blames Thapa for being denied the NC ticket in 2022, which led him to win the election from Sarlahi-4 as an independent. &nbsp; For his part, Gagan Thapa focused on a more pragmatic development agenda that includes upgrading roads and irrigation, improving schools and hospitals, supporting farmers, and creating employment opportunities with improved governance at the centre. He also promised to build an engineering college in the constituency.&nbsp; Thapa also promoted his own anti-establishment image within the NC, repeatedly reminding voters on the campaign trail that he represents the aspirations of the youth.&nbsp; On Thursday, as voting progressed, there were violent disruptions in two centres where voting was briefly halted. But Sarlahi district police spokesperson Saroj Rai told Nepali Times that there were no major problems. Police in collaboration with the Nepal Army sent the ballot papers to the district’s counting stations, where the votes are expected to be tallied through the night and the winner announced Friday morning.

Sarlahi-4 nervously watches ballot count

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Nepal election live results

As this report is uploaded, the latest results in Nepal’s election show that the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) is headed for an even bigger sweep than most had predicted.
The RSP was leading by large margins in 49 of 165 constituencies, &nbsp;with the UML, NC and NCP trailing far behind. Prominent political figures from the old parties like K P Oli, Minwndra Prasad Rijal, Ishwar Pokhrel, Bishnu Prasad Poudel, Bimalendra Nidhi all seem headed for defeat.
It does look like the RSP’s bell election symbol is ringing right across Nepal — from cities to the remotest districts in the mountains and plains. The party’s blue colour is sweeping the land.
The Nepali people seem to have sent a clear message that they were throughly dissatisfied with the chronic failure of the three main parties to work in the national interest to create jobs and deliver development. It was also an expression of lingering outrage over the the 8 September massacre outside Parliament. &nbsp;
It now looks almost certain that Balendra Shah will get to be Nepal’s next, and youngest, prime minister. Hopefully he will be leading a cabinet of competent and honest technocrats. It remains to seen how the power equation between Shah and the RSP’s leader, Rabi Lamichhane will play out.
Lamichhane is out of jail on bail for fraud cases which he has called political vendetta by the previous regime. Both he and Shah are charismatic and ambitious. Their working relationship will determine Nepal's political stability and whether it can avoid the political cronyism of the past.
This election was not just about casting votes. It was about standing up to principles and a value system, and respecting the hopes and aspirations of Nepal’s youth. It to push for transparent government and against impunity — including for the gunning down of young Nepalis in cold blood.
<div class="embed-block"><iframe src="https://election-geo-dashboard.pages.dev/" width="100%" height="600" frameborder="0"> </iframe>Live election results as winners of candidates are announced.</div>
CAN DO MAN
Shah got mixed reviews as mayor. He was impulsive and ad hoc, but most people inKathmandu and beyond liked his can-do attitude and unconventional style which stood in sharp contract to the legacy leaders. Over his three year mayorship he showed more maturity and planning capacity.&nbsp;
But he always ran headlong into opposition from the federal government over his urban planning and other initiatives to make Kathmandu more liveable. Coming from a civil and structural engineering background, he was involved in building low-cost housing after the 2015 earthquake.
But his public persona is more tied to his irreverent rap lyrics that stood up for the marginalised underprivileged in society, while exposing the high-handedness and apathy of the state. But this also exposed contradictions because he also used his own municipal guards to beat and chase away street vendors and squatters.
But there is no doubt that a combination of the sharp messaging in his rap videos amplified by the algorithms of social media ignited Nepal’s youth to rise up. It was more about optics and emotion than policy and strategy.
He studied Kathmandu district for five years, visiting experts in every field before announcing his independent candidacy for mayor in 2022. Many like me in his own constitunecy did not know who he was and where he came from.
He is a year younger than my architect son, and I saw in him a reflection of my own son’s commitment to serving the nation. I voted for him to be mayor despite his sometimes erratic behaviour, which could be attributed to his youth.
The best sign of his strategic planning, which unsettled septuagenarian and octogenarian politicians, is the he did not grab the first easy option of becoming prime minister in September when GenZ activists offered him the post.&nbsp;
Joining RSP was a masterstroke, as was his challenge to Oli in Jhapa to project national branding. He needed a party platform and Lamichhane needed a popular prime ministerial persona since he himself could not hold the post.
Shah has shown the capacity to take risks when he believes the value justifies the action for the country. Now, he will have to show more strategic thinking on a national scale, as well as understand the delicate geopolitics of Nepal.&nbsp;
He must rise above the kind of crude social media posts that earned him followers on X, but did nothing to erase his erratic and impulsive image.&nbsp;
Some assume that behind his trademark RayBan shades is a closet dictator, and his past remarks about Hitler are still up on social media. He has in the past shown impatience with criticism, unleashing supporters on social media to troll detractors.&nbsp;
Even so, the public seems willing to place their hope on an educated young man with integrity and a proven record for planning at the helm. By tomorrow it will be clear whether the hope Nepalis have held has been fulfilled, and the coming years will show if the RSP will lead Nepalis to a better future.
The voters seem to have shown the door even to the NC despite the fact that under Gagan Thapa, the party had turned a new leaf. A strong government under Prime Minister Balendra Shah heading a carefully selected cabinet and a strong opposition of the NC, UML and other parties for check and balance may be just what we need for a stable Nepal.&nbsp;
Nepalis have collectively always shown maturity in elections. This time they have given a resounding endorsement for integrity and for good governance.

Bells ring all over Nepal

After Thursday’s election, Nepalis are in a wait-and-watch mode. The Election Commission says counting ballot papers will be expedited this time, and the results for the First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) will start being declared within days. In 2022, it took three weeks for the final results to be tallied.&nbsp;
But winning an election is only half the challenge for the parties, forming a government under parliamentary politics is like a complicated mathematical equation.&nbsp;
In 2022, the Nepali Congress (NC) emerged as the biggest party, winning 89 seats. But the UML with 78 seats and the Maoists with 32 formed a minority government. In fact, Sher Bahadur Deuba did not become PM then despite leading the biggest party in Parliament.
This time, there is an unmistakeable Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) wave led by its prime ministerial candidate, Balendra Shah. Besides his own popularity, Shah represents change which most Nepalis are clamouring for after decades of corrupt and feckless coalitions that did not deliver.&nbsp;
The past months of campaigning has seen massive youth engagement on social media through memes, AI clips, and viral images. Digital content that appeals to emotion rather than policy debate between candidates shape electoral outcomes in Nepal and elsewhere. &nbsp;
Shah represents GenZ aspirations, and was their candidate for prime minister. It was only when he declined that Sushila Karki was nominated. None of the political parties in the recent past -- new, old, or revolutionary — have won enough seats to go it alone.&nbsp;
The most recent majority government was formed by the short-lived Communist Party of Nepal after the UML-Maoist merger in 2022. But that rare two-thirds majority collapsed after a power struggle between K P Oli and Pushpa Kamal Dahal. The only party to have won a majority was the NC in the 1991 and 1999 elections. But it is near impossible for it to repeat this success now, even with Gagan Thapa's rebranding of the party.&nbsp;
We have compiled these possible scenarios for election outcome in order of likelihood:
RSP gets a majority
RSP hits the magic 138 to form a government entirely on its own. Balendra Shah wins Jhapa-5, and becomes the new prime minister at 35, the youngest ever to hold the office in Nepal. But danger lurks: there could be a personality clash between Shah and Lamichhane who are both equally ambitious. History could repeat itself.&nbsp;
RSP wins but does not get a majority
RSP is likely to sweep the most votes, but what if it does not secure enough seats for a majority? It would need a coalition partner and Nepali Communist Party (NCP) under Pushpa Kamal Dahal could fit the bill, but only if it has the numbers. The RSP is not likely to team up with the UML or NC.
The NCP is relatively untainted by the 8 September events, and also has former UML defectors like Madhav Kumar Nepal and Bhim Rawal who could bag their rural vote banks. After all, there are no permanent foes in politics. If the royalist RPP and Tarai-based Janata Samajwadi have enough seats, those could be options for the RSP. &nbsp;
NC is second
The NC under the new leadership of Gagan Thapa could become the second biggest force and form a government with RSP in a power-sharing deal with Shah. This would be the most stable scenario since the RSP and NC have competent and idealistic young technocrats. Thapa himself embodies a strong combination of both old and new politics to navigate the system for more efficient government. But then Thapa and the RSP's Rabi Lamichhane do not get along.
NC and NCP form a majority
If the NC becomes the largest party but not by a big margin, it could join up with the NCP and Ujyalo. Teaming up with the UML would likely face backlash with the party and outside. If Gagan Thapa becomes prime minister he will face internal pressure from both Deuba loyalists. Same old story.
Minority coalition of NC, UML and NCP
RSP becomes the first party but does not get a majority, paving the way for the three legacy parties to cobble together a minority government. While this is possible in Nepal’s parliamentary system, such a scenario is likely to lead to more instability and dissatisfaction among young Nepalis demanding change, and even trigger street unrest. &nbsp;

public-debt

Dam dangerous

Soaring Debt

Sarlahi-4 nervously watches ballot count

Nepal election live results

Bells ring all over Nepal

The magic 138