It is widely known that a significant trade and currency dispute between Nepal and Tibet that began in 1788 led to a military conflict between China and the Gorkha Kingdom. The outcome of this <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/sino-nepal-ties-in-the-post-afghan-era">Sino-Gorkha War </a>in 1791-92, particularly the question of who emerged victorious, however, remained uncertain and subject to debate. The emergence of a hitherto unknown war report of 1793 sheds not only new light on this question, but may also offer insights into contemporary global peace challenges. Scholars relying on Chinese and Tibetan sources assert that China emerged victorious, and that Nepal was required to dispatch a quinquennial mission bearing valuable goods to the imperial palace in Beijing.&nbsp; Chinese scholar Wei Yuan, in his Military History of the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/losing-loose-change-in-nepal">Qing Dynasty</a> (Shèngwu Ji) wrote: ‘The request of the rebels (the Gorkhalis) for surrender was granted.’&nbsp; Similarly, an inscription from 1792, found on a stone slab beneath the Potala in Lhasa, attributed to the Chinese emperor, reads: ‘Now that the Gorkhas have submitted to me, the imperial army has been withdrawn.’ Qing paintings also depict an ostentatious victory banquet. However, this claim of Chinese victory has been occasionally contradicted by Nepali and Western scholars who both rely on scarce Nepali sources. For example, the Nepalikabhupa-Vamsavali (misleadingly known as the ‘Wright Chronicle’) states: ‘(<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/12-full-opinion/the-end-of-history">King Rana Bahadur Shah</a>) killed the Chinese army. He thus caused the Chinese Emperor to praise him.’&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240301110348_f49d0e1564b05298a0771f30977f976f785b26636dd430bd19c81ed2d2235b4f.jpg" data-media-id="editor_3" data-image-id="20240301110348_f49d0e1564b05298a0771f30977f976f785b26636dd430bd19c81ed2d2235b4f" data-rendition-name="original" width="1037" height="625" loading="lazy" alt="Sino-Nepal War"> <figcaption>Capture of Syaphru in present day Rasuwa District by the Chinese Army. Paintings and engravings commissioned by the Qianlong emperor of the Gorkha Campaign collaboration between Chinese and European painters. The Jesuit missionaries were involved in producing the drawings in China were Giuseppe Castiglione, Jean-Denis Attiret, Ignace Sichelbart and Jean Damascene.(Photo: ALL PHOTOS: NEPALI TIMES)</figcaption> </figure>   <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240301110348_630572b9dcd2a41c2cb499b105e6c7ac3b5610f4d6185cc63d746f070bc0ff5e.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20240301110348_630572b9dcd2a41c2cb499b105e6c7ac3b5610f4d6185cc63d746f070bc0ff5e" data-rendition-name="original" width="1036" height="622" loading="lazy" alt="Sino-Nepal war"> <figcaption>The Qing celebration of consolidation of Tibet after the Gorkha Campaign in 1792.</figcaption> </figure>  Additionally, a letter attributed to Rana Bahadur Shah, addressed to officials sent for the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/from-nalapani-to-kalapani">conquest of Kumaon Garhwal</a> and published in 1957 by Dhana Bajra Bajracharya and Jnana Mani Nepala in Aitihasik Patrasamgraha (Vol 1.56-61), supports the notion of Nepali victory. Recently, a comprehensive Nepali war report has come to light, previously only indirectly or partially known. This report (sandhi) from 1793AD has been published by the project Documents on the History of Religion and Law of Pre-modern Nepal, a collaboration between the Heidelberg Academy of Sciences and Humanities and the National Archives in Kathmandu, established in 2016.&nbsp; The sandhi and its translation by Manik Bajracharya, Rajan Khatiwoda and Axel Michaels is publicly accessible. According to this 28-folio text, which details the course of the war from the initial clashes in Tibet in 1788 to the so-called Treaty of Betrawati in late 1792, Nepal emerged victorious in the final and decisive battle at Betrawati near Nuwakot. The sandhi recounts: ‘After realising that his troops had been defeated and had fled, the Minister (General Fuk’anggan) observed them through his binoculars and issued the following order: “Establish a strong checkpoint at the Betrawati bridge and do not allow any fleeing soldier who crosses the Betrawati river to pass. Chop off the nose of anyone who tries to cross, and also send additional troops.” The Minister himself came to this side of the bridge with 13 cannons. At that time, the Gorkha Maharaja’s troops at the checkpoint pushed back the Chinese troops to Betrawati. Since the Chinese troops were in a hurry, they were unable to complete building a new bridge.&nbsp; In their rush to cross the bridge, many Chinese soldiers drowned in the Betrawati. The remaining soldiers threw two cannons into the river out of fear of the Gorkha Maharaja’s troops, and many of them jumped into the river and died. When the Minister witnessed the defeat of his troops, he opened the way over the old bridge Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/beginning-of-the-end-of-the-gorkha-empire">Beginning of the end of the Gorkha empire</a>, Alisha Sijapati  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240301110348_f8b8ef2b8e7db243dfdbcfd6190176400c991219fe9508c08d839cff4d74fe6e.jpg" data-media-id="editor_7" data-image-id="20240301110348_f8b8ef2b8e7db243dfdbcfd6190176400c991219fe9508c08d839cff4d74fe6e" data-rendition-name="original" width="1012" height="612" loading="lazy" alt="Sino-Nepal war"> <figcaption>Battle of Betrawati</figcaption> </figure>  The sandhi continues with a peace offer in a quoted letter from the Chinese General to Rana Bahadur Shah: “In the midst of battle, victories and defeats are common occurrences. In such circumstances, no one should lose heart. Previously, I had communicated to the Gorkha Maharaja that we would resolve matters upon reaching Nuwakot. I had also instructed my troops to remain on this side of the bridge. Despite these precautions, we suffered losses (literally, ‘my troops died’). Let us consider this a tragic play, witnessed by myself. The populace, especially the underprivileged, must now feel extremely fearful. 'The Gorkha Maharaja and the British Resident need not fret about vacating Nuwakot, as I have decided to abandon my intention of advancing there. […] I will now draft a letter to the venerable Maharaja to appease him. I request you to also correspond with him, agreeing to the terms I will propose. If we can come to an agreement, I will withdraw my troops from your realm, report to the Chinese Emperor, persuade him, and arrange for numerous gifts (khillat) to be sent to the venerable Gorkha Maharaja and the <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=656">venerable saheba [Kirkpatrick]</a>.' It appears that both sides claimed victory. How was this possible? The key lies in the differing interpretations of the gifts exchanged. The Chinese referred to them as tribute (Chinese: gòng), while the Nepalis understood them primarily as ‘gifts’ (saugat, koseli). The sandhi details the agreed-upon terms: After five years, a representative of the Gorkha Maharaja will journey with a petition and offerings (saugat) to the Chinese Emperor, pay homage, and return with news. The Gorkha Maharaja and the King of Lhasa (the Dalai Lama) shall maintain their friendship and refrain from further hostilities, while both parties retain their respective territories. It was further decided that in transactions in Tibet, the unalloyed mahindramallī of the Gorkha Maharaja would be accepted at face value, while adulterated coins would be valued accordingly. Read also:<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/nepal-and-the-taliban-s-second-coming"> Nepal and the Taliban's second coming</a>, Kanak Mani Dixit Any enemy threat to the Gorkha Maharaja’s troops should be reported to the Chinese Emperor for potential military assistance. However, the existence of a formal peace treaty, the so-called Treaty of Betrawati, remains uncertain. The exact wording of this treaty has yet to be found in Nepali, Chinese or eventually Indian archives. In 1909, Padma Jang Bahadur Rana, the third son of Prime Minister Jang Bahadur, published an English text of the treaty without presenting an original document.&nbsp; Nepali scholar Yogi Naraharinath published a summary of this ‘contract’ in his Itihasa Prakashma Sandhi Patra Sangraha (BS 2012, vol. 1, p. 121), which closely aligns with the aforementioned points. He also notes that the treaty, written in English, is currently housed in the Jaisikothā office in Kathmandu.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240301120348_6918ee417cd84de38cf99946be3f7013c40cc959ab8ef0e12ab9a49f05467176.jpg" data-media-id="editor_10" data-image-id="20240301120348_6918ee417cd84de38cf99946be3f7013c40cc959ab8ef0e12ab9a49f05467176" data-rendition-name="original" width="763" height="355" loading="lazy" alt="Sino-nepal war"> </figure>  Paragraph 6 of this ‘treaty’ discusses the exchange of ‘products of their own country (aphaphna desha-ma ujjeko vastu)’ (Nepal and Tibet) to be sent to China every five years. This clause is pivotal, as it raises the question: are these products considered gifts, as most scholars understand them, or tribute payments? If interpreted as tribute, it would suggest that China emerged victorious and that Nepal acknowledged Chinese suzerainty. However, the sandhi mentions ceremonial and honorary gifts (najara) and presents (tohapha) sent to the Chinese emperor only in the preliminary peace agreement of 1789, negotiated in Kerung. All subsequent documents refer to saugat, meaning “gift” or “present”. For me, the answer to this question simultaneously resolves the conflict: both sides interpreted the terms differently, allowing each to declare victory. Sometimes, wars conclude with arrangements that enable both sides to claim success. Despite China’s evident superiority, Nepal avoided comprehensive defeat, while China failed to advance to Kathmandu, settling for an envoy (Amban) instead. Therefore, the Treaty of Betrawati offered certain advantages to both parties, albeit to varying degrees. The Rana prime ministers, grappling with issues of legitimacy, sought recognition as legitimate rulers through missions to China. Emphasising the importance of regular missions, the emperors placed Nepal on the outer periphery of their network of tributary states known as the Cefeng system, asserting their claim to universal power. The Treaty of Betrawati also highlights the divergent views on China’s suzerainty over Nepal (and Tibet). The lack of a clear victor in the war and Nepal’s relatively low significance to China contributed to this discrepancy. In addition to border reorganisation and fortification through watchtower construction, Nepal fulfilled smaller obligations such as returning looted items from the Tashi Lhunpo monastery.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240301110352_8be89e440deb5d824914ec0587d3c9dc1e5dd561fad6574ed0f444d6d07003f4.jpg" data-media-id="editor_11" data-image-id="20240301110352_8be89e440deb5d824914ec0587d3c9dc1e5dd561fad6574ed0f444d6d07003f4" data-rendition-name="original" width="2000" height="1563" loading="lazy" alt="Sino-Nepal war"> <figcaption>Recent rendering of the Battle of Betrawati at the Nepal Military Museum.</figcaption> </figure>  However, the five-year missions remained Nepal’s primary commitment, despite the Gorkha government’s increasing reluctance to fulfil them, ultimately discontinuing them from 1906 onwards. Conversely, China provided no military aid to Nepal, even during the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/the-start-of-the-anglo-gorkha-war">Anglo-Nepal War of 1814-16</a>, despite the agreements in the Treaty of Betrawati. Its impact was more pronounced in Tibet, where it led to the presence of influential Ambans like Song Yun (1752-1835) and diminished the authority of the Dalai Lama.&nbsp; The sandhi states: ‘While the Gorkha Maharaja’s Kaji and the (Dalai) Lama of Bhot (Tibet) once held political sway, they (the Tibetans) are now considered subjects/cultivators (raiyata) of China. In Bhot, Chinese directives govern all tasks.’ Thus, the Treaty of Betrawati underscores the parties’ contrasting views on China’s dominion over Nepal (and Tibet). The absence of a clear victor in the war, coupled with Nepal’s limited significance to China, contributed to this disparity.&nbsp; Despite border reorganisation and watchtower construction, Nepal’s fulfilment of smaller obligations, such as returning looted items from Tashi Lhunpo, and discontinuation of the five-year missions, China’s impact was more pronounced in Tibet, where it exerted authority through influential Ambans and curtailed the <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=14733">Dalai Lama</a>’s power. There are many ways to end a war – through victory and surrender, truce, scarce resources, fatigue or attrition. Even if there are only limited lessons to be learned from history, the solution to the Sino-Gorkha war, in which both parties could see themselves as winners, may make it seem advisable to rethink today’s military conflicts.&nbsp; Axel Michaels is with the Centre for Asian and Transcultural Studies (CATS) / Südasien-Institut der Universität Heidelberg and author of Nepal — A History from the Earliest Times to the Present Oxford University Press, 2024.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20240301120344_a274b878f6082a05c8852790b086a3ac23a12efbfbf8dd67732b6ecc68c5aa0d.jpg" data-media-id="editor_14" data-image-id="20240301120344_a274b878f6082a05c8852790b086a3ac23a12efbfbf8dd67732b6ecc68c5aa0d" data-rendition-name="original" width="1352" height="1567" loading="lazy" alt="Sino-Nepal war"> </figure>

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Neither side lost, both sides won

The monsoon has got bad press because Nepal’s tourism operators actively told visitors to avoid <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/managing-the-monsoon?%2F">the rainy season</a>. It is time to change that. The reason can be found right here in the vast alpine meadows of Central Nepal where this time of year you can walk on velvet grass of pastures abloom with delicate pink, red and yellow flowers as the mist rolls up the valley. There is no sound except the hum of bumble bees. &nbsp;&nbsp; There are dozens of places across high Nepal called Chaurikharka, which means yak pasture. But this particular Chaurikharka in Rukum East located at an altitude of 4,000m stands out for its serene beauty, rustic charm and bucolic setting. There is just the occasional chime of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/when-yaks-go-so-does-culture">yak bells</a> in the distance, and the sharp whistle of herders corralling sheep. &nbsp;&nbsp; The grass shoots are so fragile that one hesitates to step on them, the rounded ridges appear and quickly vanish in waves of mist. With the<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/before-the-next-monsoon"> arrival of monsoon</a>, these meadows are a soothing shade of green dotted with millions of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/review/the-anatomy-of-a-flower?%2F=">multi-coloured flowers</a>. Until very recently, it took a week or so to hike up to places like Chaurikharka, but with the expansion of the road network even to these far-flung mountains in the lap of Dhaulagiri, they are much more accessible. It is just a three-hour uphill from the Mid-Hill Highway on the border between Baglung and Rukum East.  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250802130828_a0b06b494d751b2144ffbbf10894ea64b29e8aed844bc8c66171783abfaf4e16.jpg" data-media-id="editor_4" data-image-id="20250802130828_a0b06b494d751b2144ffbbf10894ea64b29e8aed844bc8c66171783abfaf4e16" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1365" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon"> </figure>  Purists would say that such easy access devalues the sanctity of these remote high meadows, but it also means more people will be moved to treasure the experience, appreciate <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/natures-fragile-gift-to-nepal">the value of nature </a>so they can take steps to protect it.&nbsp; To be sure, the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/deadly-monsoon-in-nepal-turns-deadlier">monsoon season can be challenging for road travel</a>. The roads are rough even at the best of times, and in the monsoon they become muddy and treacherous, often blocked by<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/monsoon-deluge-in-nepal"> landslides</a>. But that could be precisely the kind of adventure that the more intrepid visitors crave. Improved road connectivity has already made Chaurikharka and places like Badimallika &nbsp;and other sacred lakes in the mountains of western Nepal popular with domestic tourists. What is driving this traffic is the urge to go to exotic new places and share videos and selfies on social media. Several of Nepal’s travel vloggers have visited Chaurikharka and popularised the place, enticing followers on TikTok or YouTube to retrace their footsteps. But even as they become more popular, these fragile and once-remote places should be protected from over-tourism.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110736_f97110b7cdc3e7f80d5877690948fc9f4c95a09c583deb23b07355491e6c5446.jpg" data-media-id="editor_8" data-image-id="20250731110736_f97110b7cdc3e7f80d5877690948fc9f4c95a09c583deb23b07355491e6c5446" data-rendition-name="original" width="1083" height="699" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon NT"> </figure>  <h2>INCREASING FOOTFALL</h2> Chaurikharka is located in Bhume Rural Municipality of East Rukum, near the scenic valley of Dhorpatan in Baglung district. Even in the <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/monsoon-culture">middle of the monsoon</a>, there is a steady stream of Nepali hikers trooping to these high pastures – especially during festival days like Saune Sankranti which this year was on 17 July and actually marks the auspicious beginning of the monsoon here. “This year the rains have not been as heavy and there have been some clear mornings when we could see everything from Dhaulagiri to Machapuchre,” says Khageswar Bhandari, who trekked up here from the road. “The flowers, the greenery and the snowy mountain views make this an incredibly unique place.”&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250802130824_1b9e26f2e9853fdfe69154bb42a7c9ea6da4bf4940efc1da99b304dcfbd7d3d9.jpg" data-media-id="editor_10" data-image-id="20250802130824_1b9e26f2e9853fdfe69154bb42a7c9ea6da4bf4940efc1da99b304dcfbd7d3d9" data-rendition-name="original" width="2048" height="1152" loading="lazy" alt="Visit Nepal in the monsoon"> </figure>  Chaurikharka is worthwhile to get to in any season, but it has a different charm during the monsoon. Word has spread and because it is now easy to get to from Baglung or even Pokhara, people have been flocking here.&nbsp; “Holidays and Saturdays see the largest crowds, with up to 500 visitors every day,” says ward chair Mankaji Pun of Bhume.&nbsp; There was a time not too long ago when local herders brought sheep, goats, cows, buffaloes, horses, and mules to graze here during the monsoon. Although there are still livestock around, animals have been replaced by visitors taking selfies. Read also: <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/the-monsoon-and-nature-s-arithmetic">The monsoon, and nature’s arithmetic</a>, Tom Robertson Ward Chair Pun says infrastructure development is his main priority. A foot trail to Chaurikharka was built last year by the Tourism Division Office in Kohalpur, but access via the Raniwas-Koipa road section still remains challenging.&nbsp; “If we get more budget, we can improve the road and facilities to make Chaurikharka the main tourist attraction of this region,” says Bhume Municipality Chair Hom Prakash Shrestha. “After that, we hope to promote Chaurikharka as a top tourist spot.”&nbsp; Economic activity is also picking up with the arrival of visitors, but there seems to be a need to manage the makeshift sheds made of corrugated sheets that spoil the beauty of the place. Tea shops and lodges are also available but facilities are basic. Kuldeep Neupane took a three-day trip from Ghorahi in Dang to visit Chaurikharka recently, and says: “This is an ideal trip to make a quick getaway and let nature recharge your mind and body. And it is much more fun with a tent, to watch the sunrise over the Himalaya or the mist blowing in.”

Visit Nepal in the monsoon

Nepal is graduating to become a developing country on 24 November 2026 after half-century in the Least Developed Country (LDC) category. By 2030, the country hopes to transition to middle-income status.&nbsp; Everone from Prime Minister K P Oli have boasted that this is a matter of national pride, and will have a multiplier impact on trade and economy.&nbsp; But will it make any difference to the average Nepali? Not unless improved governance <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/why-invest-in-nepal">spurs investment and creates jobs</a>.&nbsp; Countries need to meet at least two of the three criteria in two consecutive triennial reviews to be eligible for graduation from LDC. Nepal has consistently met the thresholds for the Human Assets Index (HAI) and the Economic and Environmental Vulnerability Index (EVI) in 2015, 2018, and 2021. But Nepal was recommended for graduation before meeting the per capita <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/banner/nepals-great-income-divide">Gross National Income (GNI)</a> threshold of $1,306. “A major implication of LDC graduation is the loss of preferential market access available through Generalised System of Preferences (GSP) and other arrangements,” explains economist Sameer Khatiwada. “But over two-thirds of <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-doesnt-produce-its-2-biggest-export-items">Nepal’s exports</a> are to India, and the preferential market access to India is through a bilateral trade agreement. This has nothing to do with our LDC status.”  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250815060832_f5eabe7628a8cdf84f33b25d7cef3c4dc8913a26d8e5b253ea52a36e176b8a85.jpg" data-media-id="editor_3" data-image-id="20250815060832_f5eabe7628a8cdf84f33b25d7cef3c4dc8913a26d8e5b253ea52a36e176b8a85" data-rendition-name="original" width="640" height="470" loading="lazy" alt="LDC graduation "> </figure>  Furthermore, a provision under the South Asian Free Trade Area (SAFTA) allows Nepal to export to India duty-free if the items are at least 30% value-added. Nepali traders take advantage of this by re-exporting edible oils without meeting that requirement, falsely boosting Nepal’s exports.“ Following graduation from LDC, the value addition threshold might increase to 40%,” says Kalpana Khanal of the Policy Research Institute. “This is supposed to work to our advantage, because on paper value addition inherently means <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/multimedia/staying-home-to-create-jobs">job creation at home</a>.” But Nepal’s exports to other major destinations will face <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/nepal-and-the-us-india-tariff-tiff">tariff increases</a> with the graduation. A South Asia Watch on Trade, Economics and Environment (SWATEE) study shows that while tariff increase in the US market is relatively low (see page 5) it is considerably higher in Europe. The International Trade Centre (ITC) in a 2022 study also estimated that graduation could result in a 4.3% decline in Nepal’s projected exports, but this is excluding the impact of changes in ‘rules of origin’ provisions in preference-granting countries such as the UK and Europe.&nbsp; Nepal’s top export to these preference-granting countries is <a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/news.php?id=1482">carpets</a>, and will not be impacted, but other items such as textiles and apparel will be heavily affected due to higher cost of production. The impact will felt mostly by small and medium enterprises which represent the largest share of exports to LDC-specific preference-granting countries. As for the service exports, Nepal never really made use of the World Trade Organization’s LDC services waiver anyway, hence the effect will be minimal, if any. There is also concern about Nepal’s graduation at a time when the global economy is topsy-turvy, amidst <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/turning-point-in-us-india-relations">tariff wars and conflicts</a>. This affects Nepalis abroad directly and may impact <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/more-remittance-more-than-remittance">remittances </a>which hit $11 billion in 2024. In comparison, Nepal only received $350 million in foreign loans and grants last year.&nbsp; Tourism arrivals have finally reached pre-pandemic levels, but bad publicity about pollution, poor infrastructure and bureaucratic hurdles hinder further growth. Manufacturing continues to struggle, while hydropower and the IT sector have taken off.&nbsp; “Look at data -- <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/tourism-needs-a-new-push">tourism arrivals</a> are up, spending is up, IT exports are up, <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/news/why-nepal-needs-to-restore-ev-tax-subsidy">EV sales </a>are up, Europe still needs 85-90 million skilled workers. We are sitting on $16 billion in cash reserves, our balance of payment, foreign exchange reserve, tax to GDP ratio, credit flow are all positive, we have to build on these factors,” says Sujeev Shakya of the Nepal Economic Forum. He adds: “Our mindset creates negativity to promote rent-seeking behaviour, but this cynicism will go away after 2026 with LDC graduation. We must deal with data, look at trends, and projects which will bring in <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/from-the-nepali-press/why-there-is-no-foreign-investment-in-nepal">international investments</a>.” Khanal agrees that investment is not dependent on<a href="https://archive.nepalitimes.com/regular-columns/backside/Nepal-not-the-least-developed-country,306"> LDC status</a>. The factors that that affect investment are policy stability, a strong legal framework, market potential and ease of doing business. She adds, “That is where our focus needs to be, and we need to retain <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/diaspora-diaries/migrant-worker-returns-to-create-work-at-home?fbclid=IwAR09xJfsClCwn8uRVAmz28CU658vdKpuyDwB_b1sNlvKtAFFnSldnA0JS2g">Nepalis with jobs at home</a> for our sustained growth.” After 2026, financing support from donors and aid agencies could be affected and Nepal will no longer be able to access Least Developed Countries Fund (LDCF) to adapt to the impacts of climate change. But the Global Environment Fund and Green Climate Fund will still be available.“ LDC status does not determine bilateral development aid, that is usually driven by broader <a href="https://nepalitimes.com/here-now/looking-beyond-two-boulders">geopolitical considerations</a>,” says Sameer Khatiwada. “The World Bank and Asian Development Bank, which provide concessional loans to Nepal, it is determined mainly by per capita income, not LDC status.” &nbsp;However, Nepal may lose some concessional terms for loans. Nepal is currently a lower-middle-income country as per the World Bank in the bracket for GNI between $1,036 and $4,045. The country is already receiving more loans than grants and in July the World Bank increased its interest rate on loans by 100% from 0.75 to 1.5%. “All this means that the impact of LDC graduation for Nepal might not be as earth-shattering as some tend to think. Countries that have recently graduated, such as Botswana and the Maldives, have shows that graduation is just a step in a country’s development path,” says Khatiwada. Sujeev Shakya also sees the glass as half full, explaining that LDC graduation is just a stepping stone if Nepal has the right policies in place. He adds, “Nepal’s biggest advantage is our<a href="https://nepalitimes.com/opinion/investing-in-people"> working age population</a> and we have investments coming in. These aided by how adaptive we are as a society are the very foundations on which Nepal will grow.”

Not poor, but not rich

Two weeks ago, Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli announced jubilantly on social media that Nepal had achieved a historic annual growth of 81.8% in exports. He was right. Nepal’s trade did take a great leap forward compared to last year. But the dramatic rise was mainly due to processed soya bean oil.&nbsp; However, Nepal does not produce the edible oil it exports. In fact, the soya and palm oil that make up 44% of total exports are imported from Southeast Asia and South America, and simply re-exported, mostly to India.&nbsp; Under the SAFTA (South Asian Free Trade Area) Agreement, Nepal can export products to India duty-free if it has at least 30% value-added. Nepal’s traders have taken advantage of SAFTA even though the edible oils they export do not reach that value addition threshold. “The 30% value addition requirement is often only on paper,” says former commerce secretary Purushottam Ojha. “It is clear that simply packaging edible oils in Nepal does not fulfil the terms of the trade agreement.” Prime Minister Oli is aware of this, and even called Nepal’s export figures “fake” at an earlier event. The government is relying on other iffy figures to suggest that Nepal’s economy is strong and getting stronger. For example, the value of imports rose by 13.25% in 2024-25 compared to the previous fiscal year.&nbsp; Some of it was due to a jump in electric vehicle imports worth Rs 31.76 billion, but mostly it was because more wholesale soya oil was imported to be re-packaged and sold in India. The very fact that the government boasts about increased imports is an indication of how much it relies on taxing them for revenue. Touting such trade figures cannot be the basis to claim an economic rebound.&nbsp; “A jump in the value of imports can be interpreted as an increase in purchasing power, but it is not evidence of a stronger economy,” says economist Keshav Acharya. “Even though imports have increased, Nepal's domestic production and productive capacity have not improved.” Nepal Rastra Bank's semi-annual economic activity study report shows that industrial production was down in the first six months of the last fiscal year. This despite an increase in the number of new industries registered and investment commitments. Out of the Rs70.2 billion proposed foreign investment, Nepal received only Rs17.9 billion last year.&nbsp; Meanwhile, the rate of capital formation was limited to 24% last year, which is lower than the year before, suggesting that new investment, job creation and economic expansion all declined. If domestic production does not improve in relation to this year’s inflated trade figures, the outflow will put pressure on foreign exchange reserves like it did three years ago. At that time, Nepal borrowed from the IMF under its Extended Credit Facility Program to kickstart the economy.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/2025080710084_2cdaaa5795828c4a7de93a0604ba884ef0a8b8f24cccd939f6c24e279ab6058f.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="2025080710084_2cdaaa5795828c4a7de93a0604ba884ef0a8b8f24cccd939f6c24e279ab6058f" data-rendition-name="original" width="1633" height="723" loading="lazy" alt="Nepal's bubble economy NT"> <figcaption>Source: NEPAL RASTRA BANK</figcaption> </figure>  The macroeconomy is on firm footing with foreign exchange reserves at a comfortable Rs2,520 billion in May, up 23% from last year. This was largely due to remittances, and partly due to a falling NPR exchange rate. Real estate transactions and the stock market index have also been climbing as a result of government policies to revive the sector.&nbsp; However, former executive director of Nepal Rastra Bank Nar Bahadur Thapa cautions: “This is not organic growth, it is the result of deliberate policy decisions to relax rules on real estate and stock markets transactions.” In reality, the sharp rise in land prices have increased the cost of production, and excessive monetisation of the real estate has become the main source of Nepal’s economic woes. The central bank has announced a slew of new policies, shifting the terms of loan repayment for industrialists and entrepreneurs, reducing interest rates, and injecting more working capital — all designed to inject adrenaline into the real estate and stock market sectors.&nbsp; When he was governor, Mahaprasad Adhikari made several financial reforms during the latter half of his tenure to stimulate the economy, including tightening credit flow.&nbsp; By the last fiscal year, additional financial reforms had resulted in a credit expansion rate of around 8%. As the pace of credit expansion slows, real estate prices have started to fall. This is actually beneficial to the economy, because it lays the foundation for improvements in land-related entrepreneurship, production, and the construction sector. Just because real estate and the stock market transactions increase, it does not indicate an economic turnaround — especially when manufacturing and productive sector continues to languish.&nbsp; “It is foolish to believe that real estate and the stock market have magically revived our economy. Agriculture employs more than half of the population, but it is in decline. Investment in the productive sector has not increased, and job creation has not increased.” Two years ago, Nepal’s industrialists, business leaders, and political leadership predicted a recession amidst a sluggish business, declining market demand, large-scale job loss, and a shrinking real estate and share market.&nbsp; Still, the economy grew by 3.36% in fiscal year 2023/24. In fact, Nepal’s economy has grown nominally over the last two decades even when all sectors of the economy are in decline.&nbsp; Says Keshav Acharya: “The growth in trade, real estate, and the stock market are bubbles. The real economy remains stagnant.”

Nepal’s bubble economy

The final investigation report on the crash of a Saurya Airlines jet on 24 July 2024 at Kathmandu airport has revealed flaws in the carrier’s technical operation procedures, poor monitoring by the Civil Aviation Authority of Nepal (CAAN) and gaps in the airport’s emergency response. Eighteen people including a child were killed, and only the captain survived as the plane plunged seconds after takeoff, crashing within the airport perimeter. This was the latest in a series of aircraft accidents in previous years, and further tarnished Nepal’s already poor aviation safety record and contributed to the country being retained in the EU’s air safety list. &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; The circumstances in the Saurya crash were different from the Yeti Airlines crash in Pokhara in January 2022 that killed all 72 on board, and two Tara Air crashes in February 2016 and May 2022 on approach to Jomsom that together claimed 45 lives. However, all four tragedies were a result of negligence of carriers and crew, failure to follow procedures, regulatory slackness, and overconfidence. The Saurya crash, especially, was a glaring example of how an ailing airline broke its own rules to allow passengers, including non-employees, a joy ride to Pokhara on a maintenance ferry flight. CRASH REPORT The Final Investigation Report prepared by the Aircraft Accident Investigation Commission and released on the first anniversary of the crash last week carried a long list of rules that were ignored or broken, and of regulatory failure. The first mistake was to cram spares, tools and inflammable chemicals needed for the aircraft’s C-Check in Pokhara into the cargo hold flouting its own ground handling procedures.&nbsp; There was no check-in of passengers, some of whom were not even employees – even though regulations say only flight and maintenance crew should be on board a maintenance positioning flight. Many brought their own luggage into the plane and stored it unsecured in the cabin. There was no flight attendant to give a safety briefing to passengers. The load and trim charts given to the flight crew were rough estimates, and the total takeoff weight of the plane was 18,300kg plus or minus 200 kg. That would still have been all right, but there was a glaring mistake in the speedchart Saurya pilots were using to calculate the minimum takeoff speed (known as VR), and it had been wrong ever since the 21-year-old aircraft entered service with the airline in 2017. FAULTY DATA&nbsp; The Commission probed Flight Data Recorder inputs from previous takeoffs of the Canadian-built CRJ200-LR in 2023-2024 and found that the undetected error in the speedchart had caused the plane to pitch up at an abnormal rotation rate at least 18 times on previous takeoffs.&nbsp; Any rotation rate more than 3°/sec is regarded as unusual. But on at least two occasions, this aircraft with tail number 9N-AME had rotation rates of 5.8°/sec and 5.5°/sec, the second one was when the pilot who survived was flying in March 2024.&nbsp; On this particular day, the plane’s rotation rate was 6.5°/sec, causing it to go into a deep stall soon after takeoff, the Commission report said. Essentially, the plane was not flying fast enough down the runway to take off safely.&nbsp; It is not yet clear whether excess weight, unsecured luggage, wrong centre of gravity were also factors, but relying on a faulty speedchart for the given takeoff weight, the captain flying pulled back on the yoke before the plane had reached takeoff speed and at a pitch angle that was too steep. The investigation report says the plane then went into a deep stall and started banking right with the stick shaking. At this point, the flight officer on the right hand seat is heard on the cockpit voice recorder saying: “Whoa, whoa, whoa. Sir, Sir, Sir…” It then banked left before the pilot flying turned the plane sharply to the right again in an evasive action to avoid the parking aprons of the international and domestic terminals. Had he not done so, there would have been a disaster of a much greater magnitude at Kathmandu airport that day. The plane scraped the runway with its right wingtip, collided with a container having helicopter spare parts, and plunged into a gully east of the runway, exploding in a fireball. The investigation also noted that the impact forces seemed to be survivable for some occupants. The fire trucks took unnecessarily long to reach the site even though it was inside the airport perimeter. The absence of an ICAO-standard runway strip, inadequate rescue drills, lack of training, and a blocked emergency service gate leading to the crash site were cited as other factors. &nbsp;&nbsp; <h2>Timestamp of a Disaster</h2>  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110724_39cdd04693994ce6e55a5b302905c0fa4884fe85bed21ff0779bb1439f3a5725.jpg" data-media-id="editor_0" data-image-id="20250731110724_39cdd04693994ce6e55a5b302905c0fa4884fe85bed21ff0779bb1439f3a5725" data-rendition-name="original" width="778" height="826" loading="lazy" alt="Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy NT"> </figure>  11:10:34 - The Saurya Airlines CRJ200 on the takeoff roll from runway 02. It had a takeoff weight of about 18,300kg, but the pilot’s speedcard had a previously undetected mistake about the minimum takeoff speed. 11:10:55 -The plane with tail number 9N-AME goes into deep stall soon after takeoff because it does not have enough speed to lift its weight. The plane also has an abnormally steep nose-up attitude.&nbsp; 11:11:03 - Without enough speed to generate lift, the plane banks right, then left and right again in CCTV photos taken from the domestic apron (below). If it had not banked right, it could have hit the aprons and terminal buildings. Seen parked is Saurya’s other CRJ200 with tail number 9N-ANM.&nbsp;  <figure> <img src="https://publisher-publish.s3.eu-central-1.amazonaws.com/pb-nepalitimes/swp/asv65r/media/20250731110732_608132f7225c649125cca2691dd6a6bf930984c5b359e888d7ad9e5eacce3afd.jpg" data-media-id="editor_1" data-image-id="20250731110732_608132f7225c649125cca2691dd6a6bf930984c5b359e888d7ad9e5eacce3afd" data-rendition-name="original" width="770" height="555" loading="lazy" alt="Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy NT"> </figure>  11:11:08 - The plane scrapes the runway with its right wingtip, and falls into the gully. The captain is thrown off the left side of the cockpit and survives. 11:11:15: Plane explodes in a fireball inside the airport perimeter. Firefighters take time to reach the site because of lack of access road and a blocked gate. Read the full investigation report <a href="https://www.tourism.gov.np/files/9N-AME%20AIC%20Final%20Report.pdf">here</a>.

rana-bahadur-shah

Neither side lost, both sides won

Visit Nepal in the monsoon

Not poor, but not rich

Nepal’s bubble economy

Flouting rules caused Saurya tragedy